politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a batch of phone polls on the way LEAVE punters might
Comments
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No, May 2015.MarkSenior said:
We are talking about May local elections last month not a year ago .weejonnie said:
37.8% Nationally IIRC - which is only closer to 30% in the minds of the Left.MarkSenior said:
The Conservatives were nowhere near 40% last May . They were much nearer 30% .chestnut said:Packing online with activists for the referendum does not make sense to me.
The long term sign ups will have been to well known political pollsters published in the press, with the sign up based upon being activist Tory, Labour etc.
It will not have been on a Leave or Remain basis.
Additionally, ORB and BMG seem to derive their panels from market research databases which should be purer.
UKIP polled 15% across GB (less Scotland and London) last May. The Tories were over 40%.
England and Wales (less Scotland/London) is 55-45 "right wing".0 -
BBC: "Uefa has threatened to disqualify England and Russia from Euro 2016 if there is any further violence by fans."
Current Betfair lay price against England reaching the last 16 is 1.13.
DYOR.0 -
viewcode said:
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.John_M said:
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top0 -
This is brilliant perspective from an Irishman who wants Out too
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/lucky-brits-have-chance-to-say-goodbye-not-au-revoir-t5k99dwcn0 -
Well I am LOL . Figures from a year ago are history and not representative of current political voting adherence .chestnut said:
No.MarkSenior said:
We are talking about May local elections last month not a year ago .weejonnie said:
37.8% Nationally IIRC - which is only closer to 30% in the minds of the Left.MarkSenior said:
The Conservatives were nowhere near 40% last May . They were much nearer 30% .chestnut said:Packing online with activists for the referendum does not make sense to me.
The long term sign ups will have been to well known political pollsters published in the press, with the sign up based upon being activist Tory, Labour etc.
It will not have been on a Leave or Remain basis.
Additionally, ORB and BMG seem to derive their panels from market research databases which should be purer.
UKIP polled 15% across GB (less Scotland and London) last May. The Tories were over 40%.
England and Wales (less Scotland/London) is 55-45 "right wing".0 -
Turkey beaten - there biggest supporter (D. Cameron) will be disappointed.0
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128 were killed in the Bataclan shootings in ParisAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.Morris_Dancer said:Miss/Mr. QC, thanks for that answer.
Surprised one man managed to kill so many.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.0 -
From a citizen of a country experiencing 9% growth in the EU , he clearly has a death wish .PlatoSaid said:This is brilliant perspective from an Irishman who wants Out too
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/lucky-brits-have-chance-to-say-goodbye-not-au-revoir-t5k99dwcn0 -
Mr. Putney, my mind went to cui bono. Would Slovakia be likely beneficiaries?0
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I was thinking of single gunman, but of course, you're right.HYUFD said:
128 were killed in the Bataclan shootings in ParisAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.Morris_Dancer said:Miss/Mr. QC, thanks for that answer.
Surprised one man managed to kill so many.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.0 -
Not a single shooter though.HYUFD said:
128 were killed in the Bataclan shootings in ParisAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.Morris_Dancer said:Miss/Mr. QC, thanks for that answer.
Surprised one man managed to kill so many.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.0 -
Well then reinforces the idea it will have zero impactkle4 said:
I thought that question was decisively settled with all the other mass shootings - that there is no political will to change things even a little?HYUFD said:
could equally again open up the question on gun laws too,weejonnie said:
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.RodCrosby said:Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.0 -
One of the oddities of the current zeitgeist is that the West is incredibly worried and fearful of the future.viewcode said:
Amen. Things that are stable will change, things that change will settle down, and ultimately all we can hope for is that tomorrow is a bit better than today...John_M said:
One of the most influential papers I ever read was written by a CIA analyst (this was in my secret squirrel days). He was trying to analyse why the Western intelligence community had never actually predicted any of the great seismic shifts - from the Cuban missile crisis to the Arab spring. It really brought home to me how odd the world is, and how inherently unpredictable humans, en masse, are.
I'd have more confidence all round if the economists were predicting when the next recession will be - they're still much better at fitting to the curve than predicting it.
A few months ago I posted some links to pictures of the Glasgow tenements in the 70s - from the despised Daily Mail. When I look at them and think about my own childhood, then see where the world is now, it's like night and day. I shan't go all Four Yorkshireman on you, but here's just one example:
http://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/ourworldindata_world-population-by-level-of-child-mortality.png
It's not a perfect world, but it's one that's been improving (for humans) pretty much my entire life. It's been crap to the be a rhinoceros or a coral reef, but we are living better lives than humans ever have, and living standards have risen globally. We'll always be able to find horror, want and torment, but we really should try and at least try to count our blessings.
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I would assume the context was a lone wolf shooting. 50 seems an incredible number (even in Norway Breivik was roaming about the island without people being aware of what was going on)HYUFD said:
128 were killed in the Bataclan shootings in ParisAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.Morris_Dancer said:Miss/Mr. QC, thanks for that answer.
Surprised one man managed to kill so many.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.0 -
But it does - it shows the liberal bias in media broadcasting and the intolerance of liberals to anyone holding an opinion contrary to their warped beliefs. It reflects in reporting of political events - such as the forthcoming referendum and thereby has to be factored into political batting.Floater said:
Well yes of course. But that does not make the fact meaningful.GeoffM said:
Insert "Tea Party supporter" in there and you'll be deafened by the media wailing and gnashing of teeth.Floater said:
I honestly don't see why the fact he might be a democrat is important.williamglenn said:
It looks like the shooter was also a registered Democrat. His parents came from Afghanistan.weejonnie said:
Just as well for Hillary - If it had been a Muslim who had recently arrived in the USA.....RodCrosby said:"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified.
Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637414/Everyone-running-Gunman-bursts-gay-nightclub-Florida-shoots-20-people-taking-hostages.html#ixzz4BNDPKOBZ
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkwW6v5UUAEbp4T.jpg0 -
Your side supports an immigration system that favours Europeans over Asians and Africans. And yet somehow it is the level playing field proposed by Leave that is racist?tyson said:viewcode said:
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.John_M said:
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top0 -
Hales is on 77 and therefore extremely likely to get out in the next few minutes.0
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Difficult to tell how many were killed by each shooter in BataclanPlatoSaid said:
Not a single shooter though.HYUFD said:
128 were killed in the Bataclan shootings in ParisAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.Morris_Dancer said:Miss/Mr. QC, thanks for that answer.
Surprised one man managed to kill so many.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.0 -
I remember an amusing discussion I had with a Jehovah's Witness one time, who was impressing upon me how bad the world was, with war in the middle east and so on (this was shortly after ISIS really took off) and the troubles we have here, and they seemed quite taken aback when I suggested that it wasn't the worst time in human history, and that the 14th century, for one, was probably worse. I know Witness' have their own particular issues, but I try to be positive.John_M said:
One of the oddities of the current zeitgeist is that the West is incredibly worried and fearful of the future...viewcode said:
Amen. Things that are stable will change, things that change will settle down, and ultimately all we can hope for is that tomorrow is a bit better than today...John_M said:
One of the most influential papers I ever read was written by a CIA analyst (this was in my secret squirrel days). He was trying to analyse why the Western intelligence community had never actually predicted any of the great seismic shifts - from the Cuban missile crisis to the Arab spring. It really brought home to me how odd the world is, and how inherently unpredictable humans, en masse, are.
I'd have more confidence all round if the economists were predicting when the next recession will be - they're still much better at fitting to the curve than predicting it.
It's not a perfect world, but it's one that's been improving (for humans) pretty much my entire life. It's been crap to the be a rhinoceros or a coral reef, but we are living better lives than humans ever have, and living standards have risen globally. We'll always be able to find horror, want and torment, but we really should try and at least try to count our blessings.
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Both tragic anywayAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I was thinking of single gunman, but of course, you're right.HYUFD said:
128 were killed in the Bataclan shootings in ParisAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.Morris_Dancer said:Miss/Mr. QC, thanks for that answer.
Surprised one man managed to kill so many.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.0 -
SandyRentool
Suely it is Boris (member Tory Friends of Turkey established to campaign for Turkey's membership) who will be most upset.
If Turkey are moving OUT then England may stay IN!!!!!!0 -
Didn't you say 200 tops a few posts back..weejonnie said:
But it does - it shows the liberal bias in media broadcasting and the intolerance of liberals to anyone holding an opinion contrary to their warped beliefs. It reflects in reporting of political events - such as the forthcoming referendum and thereby has to be factored into political batting.Floater said:
Well yes of course. But that does not make the fact meaningful.GeoffM said:
Insert "Tea Party supporter" in there and you'll be deafened by the media wailing and gnashing of teeth.Floater said:
I honestly don't see why the fact he might be a democrat is important.williamglenn said:
It looks like the shooter was also a registered Democrat. His parents came from Afghanistan.weejonnie said:
Just as well for Hillary - If it had been a Muslim who had recently arrived in the USA.....RodCrosby said:"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified.
Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637414/Everyone-running-Gunman-bursts-gay-nightclub-Florida-shoots-20-people-taking-hostages.html#ixzz4BNDPKOBZ
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkwW6v5UUAEbp4T.jpg0 -
kle4- I'm relying on racists to vote remain in large enough numbers for reasons of financial self interest.kle4 said:
You know perfectly well that just because idiots support something does not mean everyone who supports the same is an idiot, if their reason for supporting it is not the same. Personally I don't care about immigration at all, so don't need to make any 'it's not racist to care about immigration' comments as a defence. A couple of racists I'm unfortunately related to are voting Remain due to economic shock fears - perhaps not representative, but even racists are not a homogeneous mass.tyson said:
You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.kle4 said:
I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.tyson said:Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
0/T
Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
And in any case the problem remains - if you think anyone who supports Leaving is a racist, which is your implied position, you are saying 45-50% of the population are racist. Does that really seem probable to you?
The Brexit campaign is wholly based on stopping immigration- the nuances of the debate are entirely lost. I said months ago here that the campaign would be based on the economy versus immigration.
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Mr. kle4, the 14th had some sticky moments (Black Death, Hundred Years' War). Interesting to consider the worst century. The Crisis of the Third Century was less than lovely. And then the Dark Ages (harder to assess due to fewer historical sources).0
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They were all in the confined space of a nightclub so sitting ducks, as in Bataclanalex. said:
I would assume the context was a lone wolf shooting. 50 seems an incredible number (even in Norway Breivik was roaming about the island without people being aware of what was going on)HYUFD said:
128 were killed in the Bataclan shootings in ParisAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.Morris_Dancer said:Miss/Mr. QC, thanks for that answer.
Surprised one man managed to kill so many.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.0 -
That is to some extent conjecture. We don't know how "remainers" are really "careerists" who would see their path to greatness more ably served by backing another candidate, which since Cameron is leaving anyway soon would be any of them with a brain.HYUFD said:
There has to be a vote of confidence by MPs first before a leadership election, as a majority of Tory MPs back Remain if Remain win Cameron would win that vote of confidence comfortablyEl_Dave said:
Whether or not he faces a leadership election is up to Conservative MPs. Who wins that leadership election is up to Conservative Party members.HYUFD said:Not the same as saying he will resign or lose the leadership and he is the elected Prime Minister who will have just won a referendum, Tory members can say what they like, the UK electorate will have voted to Remain and the PM will still be a Remainer as a consequence
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And you have been proven right on that at least. Unfortunate that it is so, that the argument has boiled down to that, but not unexpected.tyson said:
The Brexit campaign is wholly based on stopping immigration- the nuances of the debate are entirely lost. I said months ago here that the campaign would be based on the economy versus immigration.kle4 said:
You know perfectly well that just because idiots support something does not mean everyone who supports the same is an idiot, if their reason for supporting it is not the same. Personally I don't care about immigration at all, so don't need to make any 'it's not racist to care about immigration' comments as a defence. A couple of racists I'm unfortunately related to are voting Remain due to economic shock fears - perhaps not representative, but even racists are not a homogeneous mass.tyson said:
You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.kle4 said:
I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.tyson said:Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
0/T
Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.
And in any case the problem remains - if you think anyone who supports Leaving is a racist, which is your implied position, you are saying 45-50% of the population are racist. Does that really seem probable to you?0 -
It's their standard opening spiel to talk about how terrible the world currently is. I just go for 100 years as my timeframe comparison.kle4 said:
I remember an amusing discussion I had with a Jehovah's Witness one time, who was impressing upon me how bad the world was, with war in the middle east and so on (this was shortly after ISIS really took off) and the troubles we have here, and they seemed quite taken aback when I suggested that it wasn't the worst time in human history, and that the 14th century, for one, was probably worse. I know Witness' have their own particular issues, but I try to be positive.John_M said:
One of the oddities of the current zeitgeist is that the West is incredibly worried and fearful of the future...viewcode said:
Amen. Things that are stable will change, things that change will settle down, and ultimately all we can hope for is that tomorrow is a bit better than today...John_M said:
One of the most influential papers I ever read was written by a CIA analyst (this was in my secret squirrel days). He was trying to analyse why the Western intelligence community had never actually predicted any of the great seismic shifts - from the Cuban missile crisis to the Arab spring. It really brought home to me how odd the world is, and how inherently unpredictable humans, en masse, are.
I'd have more confidence all round if the economists were predicting when the next recession will be - they're still much better at fitting to the curve than predicting it.
It's not a perfect world, but it's one that's been improving (for humans) pretty much my entire life. It's been crap to the be a rhinoceros or a coral reef, but we are living better lives than humans ever have, and living standards have risen globally. We'll always be able to find horror, want and torment, but we really should try and at least try to count our blessings.0 -
NopeFloater said:
That can't be accurate, can it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Commissioned by the Bruge Brexit group. I just get rather wary of polls in general and even more so of shall we say "non independent polls." That always seem to find in the favour or show landslide support of the ones commissioning it0 -
Given how we overuse the word crisis, the Crisis of the Third Century doesn't sound that bad. Maybe it should be the Catastrophe of the Third Century now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, the 14th had some sticky moments (Black Death, Hundred Years' War). Interesting to consider the worst century. The Crisis of the Third Century was less than lovely. And then the Dark Ages (harder to assess due to fewer historical sources).
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Sandy- I wouldn't say that too loudly if you are pro Brexit because this kind of nuance is lost on our British citizens.SandyRentool said:
Your side supports an immigration system that favours Europeans over Asians and Africans. And yet somehow it is the level playing field proposed by Leave that is racist?tyson said:viewcode said:
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.John_M said:
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top0 -
weapon reported as the semi-auto civilian version of the M16...HYUFD said:
Both tragic anywayAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I was thinking of single gunman, but of course, you're right.HYUFD said:
128 were killed in the Bataclan shootings in ParisAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.Morris_Dancer said:Miss/Mr. QC, thanks for that answer.
Surprised one man managed to kill so many.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AR-15
survivors reported hearing 10 rounds a minute being fired.0 -
Pfft, the 20th century knocks them all into a cocked hat - up until around 1950 or so. I'd nominate the period from 1850 to 1950 as being the bloodiest ever. You kick off with the Taiping rebellion, march on through the refinement of truly industrialised warfare and end with the Korean War. I'd take an argument that we should include the Great Leap Forward - we're still arguing over how many people that killed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, the 14th had some sticky moments (Black Death, Hundred Years' War). Interesting to consider the worst century. The Crisis of the Third Century was less than lovely. And then the Dark Ages (harder to assess due to fewer historical sources).
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Yes - for the cricket - we seem to have a useful #7 batsman - a black Swan event.SquareRoot said:
Didn't you say 200 tops a few posts back..weejonnie said:
But it does - it shows the liberal bias in media broadcasting and the intolerance of liberals to anyone holding an opinion contrary to their warped beliefs. It reflects in reporting of political events - such as the forthcoming referendum and thereby has to be factored into political batting.Floater said:
Well yes of course. But that does not make the fact meaningful.GeoffM said:
Insert "Tea Party supporter" in there and you'll be deafened by the media wailing and gnashing of teeth.Floater said:
I honestly don't see why the fact he might be a democrat is important.williamglenn said:
It looks like the shooter was also a registered Democrat. His parents came from Afghanistan.weejonnie said:
Just as well for Hillary - If it had been a Muslim who had recently arrived in the USA.....RodCrosby said:"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified.
Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637414/Everyone-running-Gunman-bursts-gay-nightclub-Florida-shoots-20-people-taking-hostages.html#ixzz4BNDPKOBZ
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkwW6v5UUAEbp4T.jpg0 -
Mr. kle4, whilst I agree, I take the opposite lesson. The way forward is to berate those who abuse English rather than revising history (Battle of Gaugamela, indeed!) to take account of the views of the wrong.0
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Would this include the estimated third of our ethnic minorities that are planning to vote Leave ? I am surprised you dislike Osborne, you seem to have a similar taste for sneering at the little people.tyson said:I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top
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With respect Tyson, do you honestly think this will encourage people here (Or anywhere) to "vote remain" ?tyson said:
You tell me which of you are racist. You Brexit people are on the same side as the English hooligans rampaging through Marseille singing fuck off Europe, the EDL, the BNP, George Gallaway, revolutionary communists, Farage. You're riding the wave of anti immigrant rhetoric and populism.kle4 said:
I hope you'll let us know which of us racist, which is ignorant, which is nationalist and which is all three.tyson said:Terrible news in Florida. Like the Bataclan, indiscriminately killing young people who are out enjoying themselves is truly disgusting.
0/T
Cameron is quite right to plainly state the implications of a vote leave. There will be an economic shock followed by years of political and economic uncertainty. Something business hates. Sterling will plummet, and credit will be transferred out of the UK. Global business will choose other countries to invest in.
The economic shock will probably lead to a serious recession- but with the added uncertainty of Brexit, this will prolong any economic shock beyond any normal recessionary cycle. Tax receipts will fall significantly and our ability to pay for our public services will be seriously diminished without major tax rises, or cuts, or probably both- i.e. state pensions, the NHS. Britain will become poorer. Further, anyone with private pensions will see their funds affected as capital leaves the UK.
This is not scaremongering., or project fear..this is just stating the bleeding obvious. I have an MA in Economics and an MBA, so this is particularly intuitive for me to understand, but it is not rocket science. It really isn't.
The rationale behind Brexit is based on stupidity, racism, ignorance, nationalism and populist nonsense. Brexit represents a triumph of sentiment over logic....which would be just about tolerable if the sentiment was based on noble human emotions such as compassion, warmth and collectivism. Brexit sentiment is based on racism, ignorance and nationalism. Brexit sentiment is akin to an individual self harming because they are angry. This needs to be hammered home in the next week and a half.0 -
That is a symptom, not a cause.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a feeling online polls contain too many Kippers. So you have to weight accordingly.Indigo said:
Why does this matter for a referendum question since there are leavers and remainers on both the left and the right ? Socio-economic weighting I could see.TheScreamingEagles said:also no political weighting
Compare the gap in the Remain/Leave vote in the different age cohorts between online and phone polls.
Online polls are more extreme, but in both directions; more Leaver/less Remain older voters, less Leaver/more Remain younger voters.0 -
Mr. M, it's easy to underestimate the scale of warfare in the Punic Wars. The Battle of Ecnomus, a naval conflict in the First Punic War, is arguably the largest battle ever fought at sea. Over a quarter of a million men were involved.
I wish I'd made a note of it, but I once calculated the proportional losses Rome suffered and applied it to modern England. I'm pretty sure it'd be about 200 MPs, 4 Prime Ministers and something crazy like 8 million adult males killed in the Second Punic War.
Edited extra bit: also, far fewer people were around in the 3rd century BC then the 1850-1950 period.0 -
Given that their next games are in Lille and Lens, I think we should be worried.peter_from_putney said:BBC: "Uefa has threatened to disqualify England and Russia from Euro 2016 if there is any further violence by fans."
Current Betfair lay price against England reaching the last 16 is 1.13.
DYOR.0 -
Anyone who had taken even a passing glance at the British Social Attitude survey for the last 2-3 years could see immediately that this was going to be the key issue. However the hypobole from certain remainers about pulling up drawbridges and throwing away keys is getting a little tiresome, even Farage is not suggesting zero immigration or anything even close. Almost all of leave are talking about a level playing field between those immigrating from inside and outside the EU, perhaps Tyson feels we should give preference to nice white Europeans ?kle4 said:And you have been proven right on that at least. Unfortunate that it is so, that the argument has boiled down to that, but not unexpected.
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I have been watching the Polls Tracker & Odds for the past couple of weeks.
I notice more Leave bets are being laid currently.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
Leave has gone from 43% of bets to 44% over a 2-3 of days. Leave odds are tightening from 3:1 to below 2:1.
For the Polls tracker, I go to FT
https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
Leave has now passed crossover and there is a trend since Mid May and there has been a more gentle upward trend since March.
Having said that, I am suspicious of the polls, as they were discredited last year. I am also suspicious of the betting as many people are becoming emotional and focus on favourable information & exclude the inconvenient.
Also I wouldnt be surprised if the EU was laying bets on REMAIN to distort the market, in the same way European govts invest in shares to maintain share values.0 -
European body threatens to expel England.
No not the EU but ........
"In a strongly-worded statement, European football's governing body said it would not hesitate to impose sanctions on either Russia or England should such violence occur again.
Measures included the potential disqualification of their respective teams from the tournament, it said"
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More scaremongering.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/12/britain-faces-seven-years-of-limbo-after-brexit-says-donald-tusk
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?0 -
Posters on here are notoriously negative about the England Team.. the absolute worst offender is Southam Observer, who is about as gloomy of England's chances as he is inevitably is right of Spurs'sweejonnie said:
Yes - for the cricket - we seem to have a useful #7 batsman - a black Swan event.SquareRoot said:
Didn't you say 200 tops a few posts back..weejonnie said:
But it does - it shows the liberal bias in media broadcasting and the intolerance of liberals to anyone holding an opinion contrary to their warped beliefs. It reflects in reporting of political events - such as the forthcoming referendum and thereby has to be factored into political batting.Floater said:
Well yes of course. But that does not make the fact meaningful.GeoffM said:
Insert "Tea Party supporter" in there and you'll be deafened by the media wailing and gnashing of teeth.Floater said:
I honestly don't see why the fact he might be a democrat is important.williamglenn said:
It looks like the shooter was also a registered Democrat. His parents came from Afghanistan.weejonnie said:
Just as well for Hillary - If it had been a Muslim who had recently arrived in the USA.....RodCrosby said:"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified.
Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637414/Everyone-running-Gunman-bursts-gay-nightclub-Florida-shoots-20-people-taking-hostages.html#ixzz4BNDPKOBZ
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkwW6v5UUAEbp4T.jpg0 -
If the country has just voted Remain, however narrowly, if they have a brain they will have to accept that and having a Remainer as PM.Indigo said:
That is to some extent conjecture. We don't know how "remainers" are really "careerists" who would see their path to greatness more ably served by backing another candidate, which since Cameron is leaving anyway soon would be any of them with a brain.HYUFD said:
There has to be a vote of confidence by MPs first before a leadership election, as a majority of Tory MPs back Remain if Remain win Cameron would win that vote of confidence comfortablyEl_Dave said:
Whether or not he faces a leadership election is up to Conservative MPs. Who wins that leadership election is up to Conservative Party members.HYUFD said:Not the same as saying he will resign or lose the leadership and he is the elected Prime Minister who will have just won a referendum, Tory members can say what they like, the UK electorate will have voted to Remain and the PM will still be a Remainer as a consequence
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Still unlikely to have any impact on US gun lawsRodCrosby said:
weapon reported as the semi-auto civilian version of the M16...HYUFD said:
Both tragic anywayAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I was thinking of single gunman, but of course, you're right.HYUFD said:
128 were killed in the Bataclan shootings in ParisAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.Morris_Dancer said:Miss/Mr. QC, thanks for that answer.
Surprised one man managed to kill so many.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AR-15
survivors reported hearing 10 rounds a minute being fired.0 -
Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for me!weejonnie said:it shows the liberal bias in media broadcasting and the intolerance of liberals to anyone holding an opinion contrary to their warped beliefs.
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He was also dressed as a police officer and so encouraged victims to come out.alex. said:
I would assume the context was a lone wolf shooting. 50 seems an incredible number (even in Norway Breivik was roaming about the island without people being aware of what was going on)HYUFD said:
128 were killed in the Bataclan shootings in ParisAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
A packed nightclub, he seems to have been in there for a few hours. There is a suggestion he also had a suicide vest, but was taken out by the SWAT team before he could detonate. Could have been even worse.Morris_Dancer said:Miss/Mr. QC, thanks for that answer.
Surprised one man managed to kill so many.
The death toll is horrifying, I can only think of the Utoya shootings in Norway which were a larger number.0 -
I don't think there's any secret that Brexit is factional. My general issue with immigration is we have failed to adjust to it - it's been swept under the carpet and look where it's got us.tyson said:
Sandy- I wouldn't say that too loudly if you are pro Brexit because this kind of nuance is lost on our British citizens.SandyRentool said:
Your side supports an immigration system that favours Europeans over Asians and Africans. And yet somehow it is the level playing field proposed by Leave that is racist?tyson said:viewcode said:
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.John_M said:
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top
It ramped so quickly, I can forgive the political classes for not getting a grip immediately.
However, they've failed for so long (multiple administrations) on simple things like housing, they're being quite rightly blamed across the board. It's a classic 'wicked' problem, so I'm not going to proffer bar-room solutions, but government response has been pathetic.
The fact that the media has reduced it to a one note contest of economy vs immigration is a tragedy.0 -
I'm relentlessly positive about them to be honest - no matter how bad they do, I remember growing up in the dark days of the early 90s.SquareRoot said:
Posters on here are notoriously negative about the England Team.. the absolute worst offender is Southam Observer, who is about as gloomy of England's chances as he is inevitably is right of Spurs'sweejonnie said:
Yes - for the cricket - we seem to have a useful #7 batsman - a black Swan event.SquareRoot said:
Didn't you say 200 tops a few posts back..weejonnie said:
But it does - it shows the liberal bias in media broadcasting and the intolerance of liberals to anyone holding an opinion contrary to their warped beliefs. It reflects in reporting of political events - such as the forthcoming referendum and thereby has to be factored into political batting.Floater said:
Well yes of course. But that does not make the fact meaningful.GeoffM said:
Insert "Tea Party supporter" in there and you'll be deafened by the media wailing and gnashing of teeth.Floater said:
I honestly don't see why the fact he might be a democrat is important.williamglenn said:
It looks like the shooter was also a registered Democrat. His parents came from Afghanistan.weejonnie said:
Just as well for Hillary - If it had been a Muslim who had recently arrived in the USA.....RodCrosby said:"The suspected Islamic extremist who killed about 20 people after taking party-goers hostage inside a gay club in Orlando has been identified.
Law enforcement sources have identified the shooter, who was wielding an assault rifle and a handgun, as US citizen Omar Mateen, from Port St. Lucie in Florida."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3637414/Everyone-running-Gunman-bursts-gay-nightclub-Florida-shoots-20-people-taking-hostages.html#ixzz4BNDPKOBZ
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkwW6v5UUAEbp4T.jpg0 -
Many Remain Con MPs have been telling their electors for years that they are anti-EU. They will need the cover of a Leave Con leader at the next election.HYUFD said:
There has to be a vote of confidence by MPs first before a leadership election, as a majority of Tory MPs back Remain if Remain win Cameron would win that vote of confidence comfortablyEl_Dave said:
Whether or not he faces a leadership election is up to Conservative MPs. Who wins that leadership election is up to Conservative Party members.HYUFD said:Not the same as saying he will resign or lose the leadership and he is the elected Prime Minister who will have just won a referendum, Tory members can say what they like, the UK electorate will have voted to Remain and the PM will still be a Remainer as a consequence
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You're not thinking big enough. Human history has been on an improving trajectory for a LONG time. The farther you go back the nastier, more brutish and shorter were people's lives. The second glacial period back (so roughly 30,000 years ago) was extreme, being so cold it wiped out the ice bear, the cave lion and was about the time Neanderthal man croaked. So my vote is for the -300th century. Winter temperatures of -30 and life expectancy of about 5 minutes. We've never had it so good.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, the 14th had some sticky moments (Black Death, Hundred Years' War). Interesting to consider the worst century. The Crisis of the Third Century was less than lovely. And then the Dark Ages (harder to assess due to fewer historical sources).
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Should REMAIN/LEAVE supporters want the polls to show them ahead or behind.
If they get too far ahead then complacency might set in on polling day and people not vote.
You don't want to be too far behind because supporters morale could suffer but being just behind in the polls could be motivating.0 -
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.alex. said:More scaremongering.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/12/britain-faces-seven-years-of-limbo-after-brexit-says-donald-tusk
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.0 -
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get. The EU will muddle along with all it's imperfections, the British economy will be relatively stable but still susceptible to global shocks as it was ever thus, London will continue to power ahead.
But with Brexit- there is a strong chance there will be an immediate run on sterling, and a flow of capital out of the UK. A one off shock would be OK- but this is likely to be accompanied by years of political and economic uncertainty which are likely to exacerbate any normal recessionary cycle. And we will be hit by the spectre of inflation- the imported inflation that we faced in the 70's, except poor productivity and recessionary factors will keep wages down.
The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit. It cannot afford to let the UK thrive outside, so we'll get the worst trading terms.
If the UK gets poorer- and the scaremongering from remain is proved to be right, who do I blame?
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Miss Plato, that's clever. Also sounds like Breivik.0
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Words seem wholly inadequate at a time like this. But RIP for those killed in Orlando, condolences to their families and friends and let's pray for the swift recovery of those who have been injured.0
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I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.John_M said:
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.alex. said:More scaremongering.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/12/britain-faces-seven-years-of-limbo-after-brexit-says-donald-tusk
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
0 -
I suspect using an example of 30000 years ago would not have worked in my Jehovah's conversation.Patrick said:
You're not thinking big enough. Human history has been on an improving trajectory for a LONG time. The farther you go back the nastier, more brutish and shorter were people's lives. The second glacial period back (so roughly 30,000 years ago) was extreme, being so cold it wiped out the ice bear, the cave lion and was about the time Neanderthal man croaked. So my vote is for the -300th century. Winter temperatures of -30 and life expectancy of about 5 minutes. We've never had it so good.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, the 14th had some sticky moments (Black Death, Hundred Years' War). Interesting to consider the worst century. The Crisis of the Third Century was less than lovely. And then the Dark Ages (harder to assess due to fewer historical sources).
Edit - although perhaps not - according to the first google popup (the most trusted source ever)
Jehovah’s witnesses believe that God created the universe and our "formless" planet billions of years ago. Then, in six creative "days", or periods of time, He completed the earth and made life. A seventh and final "day" was devoted to rest.
Jehovah's Witnesses teach that each creative "day" was actually "thousands" of years long. In fact, they claim we are still living in the seventh "day", which began about six thousand years ago.
Shows what I know0 -
lol, I like itPatrick said:
You're not thinking big enough. Human history has been on an improving trajectory for a LONG time. The farther you go back the nastier, more brutish and shorter were people's lives. The second glacial period back (so roughly 30,000 years ago) was extreme, being so cold it wiped out the ice bear, the cave lion and was about the time Neanderthal man croaked. So my vote is for the -300th century. Winter temperatures of -30 and life expectancy of about 5 minutes. We've never had it so good.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, the 14th had some sticky moments (Black Death, Hundred Years' War). Interesting to consider the worst century. The Crisis of the Third Century was less than lovely. And then the Dark Ages (harder to assess due to fewer historical sources).
. You're slightly off on one measure. My nominated period probably contains the most violent deaths (e.g. the Taiping rebellion killed ~70 million people).
However, there's an argument that the Toba eruption might have reduced Homo Sapiens populations to between 2k-20k people, i.e. we very nearly went extinct. That happened around 70k years ago, though I have to add that this is a controversial view. But imagine! And no iPhones either, oh, the humanity!0 -
Big move to Trump on BF...0
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"The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit."tyson said:
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get. The EU will muddle along with all it's imperfections, the British economy will be relatively stable but still susceptible to global shocks as it was ever thus, London will continue to power ahead.
But with Brexit- there is a strong chance there will be an immediate run on sterling, and a flow of capital out of the UK. A one off shock would be OK- but this is likely to be accompanied by years of political and economic uncertainty which are likely to exacerbate any normal recessionary cycle. And we will be hit by the spectre of inflation- the imported inflation that we faced in the 70's, except poor productivity and recessionary factors will keep wages down.
The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit. It cannot afford to let the UK thrive outside, so we'll get the worst trading terms.
If the UK gets poorer- and the scaremongering from remain is proved to be right, who do I blame?
And these are the feckers you want us to stay wedded to?0 -
She was talking about Breivik.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, that's clever. Also sounds like Breivik.
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As I said before, I don't want a narrow result I want it absolutely decisive one way or the other. When that decisive vote is completed then we get on with it 100% whatever the final decision is.HYUFD said:
If the country has just voted Remain, however narrowly, if they have a brain they will have to accept that and having a Remainer as PM.Indigo said:
That is to some extent conjecture. We don't know how "remainers" are really "careerists" who would see their path to greatness more ably served by backing another candidate, which since Cameron is leaving anyway soon would be any of them with a brain.HYUFD said:
There has to be a vote of confidence by MPs first before a leadership election, as a majority of Tory MPs back Remain if Remain win Cameron would win that vote of confidence comfortablyEl_Dave said:
Whether or not he faces a leadership election is up to Conservative MPs. Who wins that leadership election is up to Conservative Party members.HYUFD said:Not the same as saying he will resign or lose the leadership and he is the elected Prime Minister who will have just won a referendum, Tory members can say what they like, the UK electorate will have voted to Remain and the PM will still be a Remainer as a consequence
I voted leave but if remain hold the day then my view is we join Schengen and adopt the Euro the following day. If we are in then we are in all of it and from the front.
Mind you, While we're at it we might as well shut down Parliament and turn it into a Peppa Pig theme park while thanking Liz for all her help regretfully informing her of redundancy but here's a weeks wages to be going on with and the name of a good B&B in Peckham.0 -
Which will of course lead to some tremendous stresses inside the EU. Dutch and German traders seeking a quick deal while Greek marble demands and French farmers play blackmail.John_M said:
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.alex. said:More scaremongering.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/12/britain-faces-seven-years-of-limbo-after-brexit-says-donald-tusk
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
0 -
The public - they've been given the arguments on both sides, and each side has pointed out what they say are the flaws with the other. Everyone is going in eyes open to the risks, even if they ignore them.tyson said:
If the UK gets poorer- and the scaremongering from remain is proved to be right, who do I blame?
I would hope you blame those who admitted there would be risk a little less than those who claimed there would be no downside at all though.0 -
Mr. Alex, ah, my mistake. I thought Miss Plato meant the Orlando killer.0
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Crawl away Tyson. You lost all credibility with your view that only those you agree with should be allowed to vote. You really are a worm.tyson said:viewcode said:
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.John_M said:
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top0 -
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.alex. said:
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.John_M said:
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.alex. said:More scaremongering.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/12/britain-faces-seven-years-of-limbo-after-brexit-says-donald-tusk
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.0 -
You make it sound like we're in a street gang and can never leave.tyson said:
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get. The EU will muddle along with all it's imperfections, the British economy will be relatively stable but still susceptible to global shocks as it was ever thus, London will continue to power ahead.
But with Brexit- there is a strong chance there will be an immediate run on sterling, and a flow of capital out of the UK. A one off shock would be OK- but this is likely to be accompanied by years of political and economic uncertainty which are likely to exacerbate any normal recessionary cycle. And we will be hit by the spectre of inflation- the imported inflation that we faced in the 70's, except poor productivity and recessionary factors will keep wages down.
The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit. It cannot afford to let the UK thrive outside, so we'll get the worst trading terms.
If the UK gets poorer- and the scaremongering from remain is proved to be right, who do I blame?0 -
I suspect that simple demographic arithmetic will not be a good guide to this election. Trump is a master at reframing an issue and you may find that it's some of the least likely groups who will be the ones to switch to him.HYUFD said:
The shooter may be a Muslim but the victims were largely homosexuals, not exactly Trump's demographicweejonnie said:
Horrendous news if 50 dead 50 injured.RodCrosby said:Breaking: State of Emergency declared in Orlando, maybe all Florida?
Cynical - better get on Trump @ 4 then - A good day to make a move in the betting markets.
This ain't good - however it might have an effect on the UK referendum as well - people will look at the incident and not dissect the cause.0 -
Yes, we do know, mass uncontrolled immigration for one, with competition for jobs, healthcare, school & housing. That is why people will vote leave.tyson said:
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get.
A lift is not racist because it has a Maximum Occupants sign.
I am not Leave because of immigration. I am anti-EU because 1) I didnt ask for it, (Gordon Brown sign us up without a referendum they promised) and 2) it removes Democracy
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Bruges Group should have made option 3 "stay as we are" and added option 4 "Full integration - join the Euro, Schengen, etc", both so there were two options on each side, and to remind the hardcore Remainers who think that's what they will get from a Remain vote quite how risibly small that number now is.0
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Actually, he's a racist. Worms are quite nice and useful. If you substituted 'black' or 'jew' for 'Brexiters' in his perorations last night, people would be horrified. He also wants to disenfranchise Brexit-leaning folk, which compounds his sins. Still, let he who is, etc.Richard_Tyndall said:
Crawl away Tyson. You lost all credibility with your view that only those you agree with should be allowed to vote. You really are a worm.tyson said:viewcode said:
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.John_M said:
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top0 -
Congratulations.tyson said:
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get. The EU will muddle along with all it's imperfections, the British economy will be relatively stable but still susceptible to global shocks as it was ever thus, London will continue to power ahead.
But with Brexit- there is a strong chance there will be an immediate run on sterling, and a flow of capital out of the UK. A one off shock would be OK- but this is likely to be accompanied by years of political and economic uncertainty which are likely to exacerbate any normal recessionary cycle. And we will be hit by the spectre of inflation- the imported inflation that we faced in the 70's, except poor productivity and recessionary factors will keep wages down.
The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit. It cannot afford to let the UK thrive outside, so we'll get the worst trading terms.
If the UK gets poorer- and the scaremongering from remain is proved to be right, who do I blame?
You managed at least one post without calling someone a racist or a twat. Keep it up.0 -
People like to back winners, so being ahead tends to create a positive cycle.David_Evershed said:Should REMAIN/LEAVE supporters want the polls to show them ahead or behind.
If they get too far ahead then complacency might set in on polling day and people not vote.
You don't want to be too far behind because supporters morale could suffer but being just behind in the polls could be motivating.0 -
Every anti-immigration Outer falls over themselves to tell us how they are huge fans of immigration.SandyRentool said:
Your side supports an immigration system that favours Europeans over Asians and Africans. And yet somehow it is the level playing field proposed by Leave that is racist?tyson said:viewcode said:
I do remember the pound collapsing then, yes. I think at the time Thingy's predecessor was still in charge at the ECB and pursuing a strong Euro strategy and the UK had started QE (happy to be contradicted if I have the timings wrong). Remember the Greece black hole wasn't revealed until 2009(?) and Sarkozy was still boasting it was an Anglo-American problem...silly him.John_M said:
However, the GBP/Euro almost reached parity in 2008 - does anyone remember that? It was around 1.02. It was at 1.75 in 2000. The £ dropped by around 58% over that period. The stock market almost halved between 2007 and 2009 (peak in 2007 was c. 6.7k, low in March 2009 was 3.5k).
The point being that that collapse was a known side effect of a deliberately pursued strategy. A post-Brexit collapse will be the result of an outcome not chosen by the UK government, as it pivots from a pro-economy to an anti-immigration anti-economy stance: hieraeth and heimat instead of pennies and pounds.
Parenthetically I think the GBP collapse will be greater and/or longer than you think. And since Soros is piling into gold, he agrees with me...
You can trip over accidentally and bang your head, or you can deliberately whack yourself over the head with a frying pan.
Of course a post Brexit economic shock will be longer because it will be accompanied by years of economic and political uncertainty, something the markets and capital hate. Interest rates will need to rise to check imported inflation which will in turn strangle our economy through higher borrowing costs for government and mortgage holders.
In the post Brexit economic climate something will have to give as Britain adjusts to being poorer. Pensions, the NHS, private pensions, employment.
My wife's company has written to their employees urging them to register and vote remain.
I'm hoping common sense prevails come the 23rd. This whole Brexit debacle has shown to me that large parts of our country are racist, something Brexit will not help against incidentally. I'm hoping though that ultimately self interest will come out on top0 -
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.chestnut said:
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.alex. said:
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.John_M said:
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.alex. said:More scaremongering.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/12/britain-faces-seven-years-of-limbo-after-brexit-says-donald-tusk
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.0 -
Welcome to pb.com, Dr. FromAth.0
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I'm sorry but Brexit needs to address these issues instead of just say project fear hits again, or scaremongering. The simple implications of a Brexit vote are clear- an immediate economic shock with a run on sterling and subsequent flow out of the UK of capital, followed by the years of uncertainty of disentangling ourselves from the union. This will be overlaid by the EU seeking to punish the UK by dictating the worst terms for the split- BTW- it has to do this to keep the union together. It cannot be shown to give the UK lenient terms.alex. said:More scaremongering.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/12/britain-faces-seven-years-of-limbo-after-brexit-says-donald-tusk
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
How is Brexit going to negotiate this environment? Factor in also the political uncertainties with our two major parties in a state of civil war, and pretty much unsustainable as they currently are.
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Reuters: ISIS claim Mateen as one of theirs...0
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If I was dictator Johnny and was pro-remain, I'd keep us in and demand immediate harmonisation of welfare systems. It's tabled as a suggestion by the EU.oldpolitics said:Bruges Group should have made option 3 "stay as we are" and added option 4 "Full integration - join the Euro, Schengen, etc", both so there were two options on each side, and to remind the hardcore Remainers who think that's what they will get from a Remain vote quite how risibly small that number now is.
That eliminates people gaming welfare systems, and it'd be interesting to see what would happen to labour movements then.
Sheer fantasy of course.-1 -
ISIS affiliated group has posted a photo of Orlando shooter on Twitter.0
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It matters enormously in terms of whether we are better off or worse off.alex. said:
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.chestnut said:
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.alex. said:
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.John_M said:
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.alex. said:More scaremongering.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/12/britain-faces-seven-years-of-limbo-after-brexit-says-donald-tusk
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.
I wonder how long it would take us to sign the deal that the EU have been trying to strike with Canada for seven years if we were free to act unilaterally, for example?
0 -
I think we should all encourage Tyson to be Tyson. He's a one man Leave recruitment agency.0
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Quite.Alanbrooke said:
You make it sound like we're in a street gang and can never leave.tyson said:
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get. The EU will muddle along with all it's imperfections, the British economy will be relatively stable but still susceptible to global shocks as it was ever thus, London will continue to power ahead.
But with Brexit- there is a strong chance there will be an immediate run on sterling, and a flow of capital out of the UK. A one off shock would be OK- but this is likely to be accompanied by years of political and economic uncertainty which are likely to exacerbate any normal recessionary cycle. And we will be hit by the spectre of inflation- the imported inflation that we faced in the 70's, except poor productivity and recessionary factors will keep wages down.
The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit. It cannot afford to let the UK thrive outside, so we'll get the worst trading terms.
If the UK gets poorer- and the scaremongering from remain is proved to be right, who do I blame?
That reminds me of an excellent TV ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkyxpuSd5u40 -
If we started from scratch, and you were in charge, how different would the deal we negotiated with the EU be from the one we have now?chestnut said:
It matters enormously in terms of whether we are better off or worse off.alex. said:
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.chestnut said:
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.alex. said:
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.John_M said:
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.alex. said:More scaremongering.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/12/britain-faces-seven-years-of-limbo-after-brexit-says-donald-tusk
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.
I wonder how long it would take us to sign the deal that the EU have been trying to strike with Canada for seven years if we were free to act unilaterally, for example?0 -
Alanbrooke said:
You make it sound like we're in a street gang and can never leave.tyson said:
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get. The EU will muddle along with all it's imperfections, the British economy will be relatively stable but still susceptible to global shocks as it was ever thus, London will continue to power ahead.
But with Brexit- there is a strong chance there will be an immediate run on sterling, and a flow of capital out of the UK. A one off shock would be OK- but this is likely to be accompanied by years of political and economic uncertainty which are likely to exacerbate any normal recessionary cycle. And we will be hit by the spectre of inflation- the imported inflation that we faced in the 70's, except poor productivity and recessionary factors will keep wages down.
The EU will have to punish the UK for a Brexit. It cannot afford to let the UK thrive outside, so we'll get the worst trading terms.
If the UK gets poorer- and the scaremongering from remain is proved to be right, who do I blame?
Seems a fair analogy.
We have to pay protection money to keep on trading with the EU, and are threatened with dire outcomes if we want to leave.
If this was a housing estate, we would have the government complaining about gang culture.
If this was a marriage, the courts would be stepping in.
But as it's the EU, that's alright then...
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Miss Plato, indeed. A club one cannot leave is a jail.
Threats of harm if one leaves is also reminiscent of what a domestic abuser might say.0 -
Look at the pic in the 4 33 entry - lucky, lucky man
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/12/florida-gay-nightclub-shooting-injuries-reported-at-pulse-orland/0 -
Welcome, @DrFromAthDrFromAth said:
Yes, we do know, mass uncontrolled immigration for one, with competition for jobs, healthcare, school & housing. That is why people will vote leave.tyson said:
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get.
A lift is not racist because it has a Maximum Occupants sign.
I am not Leave because of immigration. I am anti-EU because 1) I didnt ask for it, (Gordon Brown sign us up without a referendum they promised) and 2) it removes Democracy0 -
This is where remain have a point, and it can't be hand waved away. Our top trading partners ( apologies for cherrypicking, this is from April 2016) figures are, in order, Germany, USA, Switzerland, France and China [Imports], and USA, Germany, France, the Netherlands [exports]. Canada is noise level in comparison.chestnut said:
It matters enormously in terms of whether we are better off or worse off.alex. said:
Something of a non-sequitur. Whether we've "struck deals elsewhere" is irrelevant to what happens to our trading relationship with the EU, at enforced point of exit. The two aren't mutually exclusive.chestnut said:
My guess is that they will find that we've gone off and struck better deals elsewhere.alex. said:
I'm not sures. The deadline for withdrawal will be timetabled - two years from Article 50 being activated. What isn't clear is what happens if an agreement hasn't been ratified at the 2 year point.John_M said:
It depends on the nature of the heads of agreement that will be negotiated. Some countries will require parliamentary approvals, others will require referendums.alex. said:More scaremongering.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/12/britain-faces-seven-years-of-limbo-after-brexit-says-donald-tusk
Although i'm not sure quite how Leavers are intending to get around the possibility of just one country scuppering/delaying any deal for internal political reasons. Will some countries have to have a referendum?
Tinfoil hat wearers will see that the withdrawal from the EU can be prolonged ad nauseam if it suits all parties.
There's a big wide world with lots of opportunity in it.
I wonder how long it would take us to sign the deal that the EU have been trying to strike with Canada for seven years if we were free to act unilaterally, for example?0 -
Hales falls as predicted.0
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Millionaire lay-about Tyson criticizing working class Britons from the Tuscan Hills is a beautiful music.Patrick said:I think we should all encourage Tyson to be Tyson. He's a one man Leave recruitment agency.
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And you are entitled to vote Leave for whatever the hell reason you want.DrFromAth said:
Yes, we do know, mass uncontrolled immigration for one, with competition for jobs, healthcare, school & housing. That is why people will vote leave.tyson said:
kle4- to Brexiters- if we vote remain, we know pretty much what we are going to get.
A lift is not racist because it has a Maximum Occupants sign.
I am not Leave because of immigration. I am anti-EU because 1) I didnt ask for it, (Gordon Brown sign us up without a referendum they promised) and 2) it removes Democracy
Don't, however, give us the anti-democracy bolleaux.
A democratically elected UK govt has accepted, signed, agreed every EU initiative that we now have.
(Welcome!)0 -
Yep. Which may not be Cameron, depending on how many noses he has managed to get up.HYUFD said:
If the country has just voted Remain, however narrowly, if they have a brain they will have to accept that and having a Remainer as PM.Indigo said:
That is to some extent conjecture. We don't know how "remainers" are really "careerists" who would see their path to greatness more ably served by backing another candidate, which since Cameron is leaving anyway soon would be any of them with a brain.HYUFD said:
There has to be a vote of confidence by MPs first before a leadership election, as a majority of Tory MPs back Remain if Remain win Cameron would win that vote of confidence comfortablyEl_Dave said:
Whether or not he faces a leadership election is up to Conservative MPs. Who wins that leadership election is up to Conservative Party members.HYUFD said:Not the same as saying he will resign or lose the leadership and he is the elected Prime Minister who will have just won a referendum, Tory members can say what they like, the UK electorate will have voted to Remain and the PM will still be a Remainer as a consequence
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Dreadful news from Orlando.I'm afraid Islam hates homosexuality so whilst the actions may be condemned you won't find too many Muslims backing gay rights.
Awful. Just awful.0 -
Rubio
"If you look at the nature of the attack, it doesn't take an enormous amount of coordination to do this.
We have seen the way gays and lesbians are treated by radical Islam. So in some ways its not surprising.
If this is something inspired by radical ideology, common sense tells you he specifically targeted this community.
Unfortunately we've had a lot of practice at explaining this to our children. You have to explain that people are doing bad things. I think we are learning that this is an individual who worked for a security company, so we will have to see what kind of background checks were done.
It is a reminder that the war on terror has evolved into something we never had to confront before.
I am confident the FBI and Homeland Security are on this, and we will learn a lot more very soon."0
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