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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Turnout: the EURef big unknown
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Turnout: the EURef big unknown
For those inside the political bubble, whether as practitioners, supporters or lobbyists on the inside, or commentators and observers watching on, it’s easy to forget how little politics matters to an enormous number of people.
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Re the ORB poll, it tallies with internal Downing St polling and you don't really need to be a psephologist to see that Leave have had a storming fortnight.
So I doubt it's a rogue in terms of direction.
I think you may well be right about turnout though. I'm unconvinced the rush to register will translate to the '80%' that some are predicting.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/if-he-wants-remain-to-prevail-eddie-izzard-needs-to-stay-out-of-the-eu-referendum-debate-a7074716.html
For a small fee.
It's the sincerely hope you don't bit...and they wonder why social media is a big echo chamber...don't agree on something, well you better not be friends with them!!!
http://election-data.co.uk/answer-the-hard-questions-show-some-leadership
Was the biggest loser of Thursday Nights ITV EU Referendum Debate Boris Johnson's Leadership ambitions?
STV News Stephen Daisley - All hail Amber Rudd, the new star of the Conservative Party
STV? A Scottish subsidiary of a Scottish subsidiary of ITV, right?
38% of respondents who DIDN'T VOTE in GE2015 are 10/10 ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN to vote in the referendum. Between 8-10 on the likely-to-vote scale, it's 51%.
That's 51% of the people who didn't show up to the polls last May are telling the pollsters they're going to vote in the referendum.
Page 3;
http://opinion.co.uk/perch/resources/orbindependent-friday-10th-june-final-data-tables.pdf
If all these changes had been applied to their last poll, the lead would probably have been 9-10%, rather than 18%.
Remain seem really rattled. Amazing. Makes me believe in karma.
That's the house rag of the Breqou tax avoiders, right?
But do keep talking among yourselves...
But a lot of people aren't going with their head, they are going with their gut. And that tells them they are unhappy with the status quo, aren't happy with where the country is going, and even if leaving the EU isn't a silver bullet cure all, it's a start. Or at the very least a scream of defiance against an establishment which for two long has offered (as Galloway put it) two cheeks of the same arse.
It'll be leave. It won't be close.
If these DE groups turn out for Leave it could be key to the referendum result.
It's perfectly reasonable to wait for the deadline for registration before filtering out the unregistered, and to weight by turnout only in the last few days of the campaign.
Which we won't. Because we vote to leave. The dispossessed and discontented across Europe all demand their own votes, the EU realises the status quo is untenable and a proper renegotiation happens. A revised EU with less migration and more national freedom "isn't what people rejected, we have to put this to a vote" and hey presto we stay.
But you have to negotiate change from a position of power. Cameron had no power pledging to campaign to remain to they gave nothing. Actually get up from the table and they have to actually give ground.
Of course, this is mostly confined to London and the Southeast.
"During the EU referendum the Remain campaign has made a huge blunder in emphasising the risk to the economy for these voters. That’s because, for them, the economy is already not working. How can it get any WORSE? Quite the contrary. A vote to Leave the EU, from their perspective, is a vote for change, to shake up the status quo. A vital desperate grasp at the shortest of straws. Repeatedly ramming the threat to the economy down their throats will likely provoke withering contempt, particularly if it’s delivered by a hate figure like David Cameron."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/euroscepticism-on-the-rise-across-europe-as-analysis-finds-increasing-opposition-to-the-eu-in-france-a7069766.html
I'm afraid you're deluded.
We have the Queen's Birthday, Birthday Honours, riots in Marseille and the small matter of England playing in rugby, cricket and football.
The real burning question is: Will Arya make it 'till voting day?
Mr. Sandpit, you missed off the F1 qualifying!
Via Twitter and couldn't find much on it, but Lord Lisvane (formerly the Comons clerk) has apparently said if it's a narrow Leave there'll have to be a second vote.
The article doesn't provide anew answer though. We are an internationalist party and many many members see that as supporting migration. It's unsustainable - you have have cross border solidarity and standards and rights without removing the border. And our economy would benefit from the same patriotic protectionism the French and Germans exercise - buy British eat British. Reinvigorating the UK supply chain whether it be food or cars or clothes - a patriotic appeal to create jobs here by not going for the cheapest option. It's not cheap in the long term if the pennies you save on imported veg means no jobs.
"The latest edition of a German magazine will implore Britain “please don’t go” in a special European Union referendum edition, which will hit newsstands tomorrow morning.
Der Spiegel’s June 11, 2016 issue will explain “why Germany needs the British” in an edition that has been hailed as “generous” and “touching”.
Der Spiegel is one of Europe’s largest publications, with a weekly circulation of about 800,000."
The pyramid scheme that is Britain's housing system is entirely self-inflicted. Britain has plenty of space to build homes, and plenty of scope to build up and down on land that already has buildings on it, but once voters are on the ladder don't want their asset depreciating, so they vote for the continuation of Britain's astonishingly restrictive Stalin-meets-Mary-Whitehouse planning system.
The LEAVE Tories, together with UKIP supporters are nowhere near enough to win it for LEAVE on their own, they need a mighty wodge of Labour voting LEAVERS to push them over the line.
The way the numbers work out could eventually prove to look something like this:
Conservative Leavers ..... 60% x 35% = 21.0%
UKIP Leavers .................. 90% x 15% = 13.5%
Labour Leavers ............... 45% x 30% = 13.5%
Other Parties' Leavers ..... 15% x 20% = 3.0%
Total LEAVERS .................................... 51.0%
It is hard to call. I keep wondering what level of postal votes have already been returned?
By the way, the James Dyson interview in the DT is brilliant. We need to find a few more people like him.
Edit - the Falange may be anti-EU, actually. But I doubt they'll get many votes.
So what do you do? Party establishment says remain, party voter base says leave. As with Cameron the party position is disconnected from party supporters. So the best thing we can do in my opinion is nothing (expressed by many at our recent CLP meeting) - the more we campaign for remain the more damage we do. That continuity New Labour are already lining up to blame losing the referendum on Corbyn further demonstrates who far from their voters these MPs are.
So every time Tone shows up, Leave adds another dollop of support.
@faisalislam: 13 Nobel scientists incl Higgs/graphene discoverers say Brexit puts UK science "in jeopardy" -& Leave claims 'naive' https://t.co/0l1BQjM6nE
Mind you, I would love to see how Cameron could respond to his arguments.
Much rather listen to someone who actually makes money from all his inventions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/sir-james-dyson-so-if-we-leave-the-eu-no-one-will-trade-with-us/
https://twitter.com/btabrum/status/741152505560731649
Mr. Putney, quite. Cable also ( a few weeks ago) said that we should vote again if it's a narrow Leave victory.
A narrow Remain victory, of course, does not require a second vote...
The Pope's death got the most deranged media coverage. Nine days after it happened the top BBC story was Pope Remains Dead. I could understand it getting top billing if that weren't the case.
(*) Except in so far as there may not have been a referendum for them to win, because he'd lost the 2015 election and the LibDems or EICPM didn't want to hold one.