It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
Stability is only desirable if you're stably good. Instability is better than being stably bad. It is called seeking opportunities and creativity.
It is called committing economic suicide
Sclerosis is perpetual stability. Suicide is perpetual stability. Poverty is perpetual stability. Death is perpetual stability.
Creativity, seeking opportunities, inventiveness and growth are unstable.
Wouldn't it simply be easier to have EFTA/EEA as the explicit destination?
If, as is increasingly likely, we vote for Leave, I would say EEA is the most likely outcome.
Given that, we can either hold off calling Article 50 indefinitely, which will keep us in a state of limbo. Or we can just accept what we get through Article 50, which likely won't be much at all. "Fog in the Channel. Continent cut off." probably isn't the end goal serious people are looking for.
Which brings us to the EEA. It has the great advantage of being off the shelf and pre-negotiated. Ostensibly membership is in the control of EFTA, not the EU and it gives us the free market. As I say, I think that is what we will end up with.
Unfortunately, I don't think the EEA will work for Britain because it retains the main things that people object to about the EU, while removing many of the foundations that keep the EU operating after a fashion. It's a package deal where we are committed not just to what's in it now but also what we will be added later. It retains the requirement to freedom of movement. And we are still subject to remote decision making out of Brussels.
Even the claimed advantage of not being part of EU instititions is actually a disadvantage. Being told what to do by EU institutions you are not a member of is worse again. That's where the EEA will break down. Right now we are reluctant members of the EU but there is a coherence to it. If as an EEA member we think we are not bound any more and we can do what we like, we will stress that relationship past breaking point.
My point is, whatever your views are on the goodness of the EU, it is better on the practicalities than the two plausible Leave options. It is going to be a huge mess.
We put a position to the EU then go and negotiate other trade deals.
They will work out that they need access to our market though by the time they may have lost market share.
Fog in Channel option? It's a reasonable approach, but not one that will deliver results. Any results. Not just bad ones. As I say it is worth looking at the EU-Swiss negotiations. The former are quite content to stall for decades. The first time round, the Swiss blinked. We will see if they do the same next year following the referendum committing to the end of freedom of movement.
Switzerland needs the EU. We don't. It would be nice to have, but it's not the end of the world
We need stability and prosperity on our doorstep. The EU furthers that aim. British participation makes the EU stronger. Ergo Britain needs to stay in the EU.
It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
Even the IFS report states that Brexit will make us less rich than we otherwise would be, by 2030. No one, not even the most ardent pro-EU forecasters are saying Brexit would make the country poorer. So, instead of a pony, kittens and a rainbow, we might have to settle for just the kittens + rainbow.
BTW, twenty years ago the FTSE was just over 3k. It almost hit 7k in 1999, then again in Feb 2015. In between, it's been up and down like a whore's drawers. Stock markets do move about a bit.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man. EU ref came up. He was very dismissive of my warnings about 'covering himself' on Leave, and has just gone in even deeper with another £20k. He's convinced it'll be 56:44 to Remain.
Do you know, this annoys the fuck out of me. To arrive at my present betting position[1] I did the following
* Got Gallup's 1975 polls, "The 1975 referendum" and "Full-hearted consent" from the library via inter-library loans. (The books are great btw) * Checked the prediction errors for the polls for about seven previous referenda on EU and UK (they are shocking btw) * Carefully saved about £250 pcm for about three months (it would have been more but I had some unexpected expenses) * Placed a bet on the London Mayoral in a physical betting shop to overcome fear and create a muscle memory
That's about six months of full-on work. And along comes Mr Dickless Bank Director and throws away £20K on the wrong result because his gut says so
Rich people don't deserve money, they really dont...
[1] £500pcm@5/2 and £250pcm@4/2 on LEAVE. I may have mentioned it.
If it makes you feel any better "Director" is quite a junior role at Deutsche Bank - he's probably a trader in his late 20s who's just trying to impress his friends with his braggardo
He's in his mid-30s, married with two kids. He is doing quite well.
He did call the IndyRef spot on. But not the GE, and I think he's quite emotionally invested in this one.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man. EU ref came up. He was very dismissive of my warnings about 'covering himself' on Leave, and has just gone in even deeper with another £20k. He's convinced it'll be 56:44 to Remain.
Do you know, this annoys the fuck out of me. To arrive at my present betting position[1] I did the following
* Got Gallup's 1975 polls, "The 1975 referendum" and "Full-hearted consent" from the library via inter-library loans. (The books are great btw) * Checked the prediction errors for the polls for about seven previous referenda on EU and UK (they are shocking btw) * Carefully saved about £250 pcm for about three months (it would have been more but I had some unexpected expenses) * Placed a bet on the London Mayoral in a physical betting shop to overcome fear and create a muscle memory
That's about six months of full-on work. And along comes Mr Dickless Bank Director and throws away £20K on the wrong result because his gut says so
Rich people don't deserve money, they really dont...
[1] £500pcm@5/2 and £250pcm@4/2 on LEAVE. I may have mentioned it.
If it makes you feel any better "Director" is quite a junior role at Deutsche Bank - he's probably a trader in his late 20s who's just trying to impress his friends with his braggardo
He's in his mid-30s, married with two kids. He is doing quite well.
He did call the IndyRef spot on. But not the GE, and I think he's quite emotionally invested in this one.
Guido has tweeted tbat Cameron is going to stand up on his hind legs side by side with Irish PM Enda Kenny and ask Irish voters in the UK to vote remain.
More broadly, the last few years have shown what a powerful anchor the EU is for providing the context for political stability even in the most trying circumstances in places like Greece. Sometimes when a situation is tough, people don't like to imagine how it could be so much worse.
Without the EU, the Greeks would have devalued and gone back to normal in a few years (as Iceland did, for instance). That's if there had been a crisis at all, of course, because the debt problems resulted from membership of the Euro. What we have instead is the long drawn-out agony of trying to force fundamentally incompatible economies into a single currency.
The only reason there is nominal political stability is because the EU has been installing technocratic governments across Southern Europe. Political stability in this case follows from building a firewall between the voters and the executive, which the overwhelming majority would consider a greater evil than instability.
And what is 'back to normal' for Greece? Endless cycles of sovereign debt crises and devaluations, perhaps interspersed with some military dictatorship? I think Greece deserves better.
Democracy is always vulnerable to a corrupt executive promising the voters a free lunch. The firewall that should prevent this is economic reality. To that extent, Euro membership is a constraint on democracy.
Ah. Although my point and argument still stands, if I'd've known he was a friend I would have phrased it differently and less rudely. My apologies, sir
Guido has tweeted tbat Cameron is going to stand up on his hind legs side by side with Irish PM Enda Kenny and ask Irish voters in the UK to vote remain.
Ah. Although my point and argument still stands, if I'd've known he was a friend I would have phrased it differently and less rudely. My apologies, sir
Guido has tweeted tbat Cameron is going to stand up on his hind legs side by side with Irish PM Enda Kenny and ask Irish voters in the UK to vote remain.
#facepalm
Gerry Adams believes we should REMAIN in the EU.
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
"they haven't gone away you know"! suprised u didn't use that.
It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
Stability is only desirable if you're stably good. Instability is better than being stably bad. It is called seeking opportunities and creativity.
It is called committing economic suicide
Sclerosis is perpetual stability. Suicide is perpetual stability. Poverty is perpetual stability. Death is perpetual stability.
Creativity, seeking opportunities, inventiveness and growth are unstable.
But too much instability and seeking opportunities are likewise bad. I appreciate you think the change-rich post-Brexit environment will be good, but others assess it differently.
More broadly, the last few years have shown what a powerful anchor the EU is for providing the context for political stability even in the most trying circumstances in places like Greece. Sometimes when a situation is tough, people don't like to imagine how it could be so much worse.
Without the EU, the Greeks would have devalued and gone back to normal in a few years (as Iceland did, for instance). That's if there had been a crisis at all, of course, because the debt problems resulted from membership of the Euro. What we have instead is the long drawn-out agony of trying to force fundamentally incompatible economies into a single currency.
The only reason there is nominal political stability is because the EU has been installing technocratic governments across Southern Europe. Political stability in this case follows from building a firewall between the voters and the executive, which the overwhelming majority would consider a greater evil than instability.
And what is 'back to normal' for Greece? Endless cycles of sovereign debt crises and devaluations, perhaps interspersed with some military dictatorship? I think Greece deserves better.
Democracy is always vulnerable to a corrupt executive promising the voters a free lunch. The firewall that should prevent this is economic reality. To that extent, Euro membership is a constraint on democracy.
I might have expressed it differently, but I agree with the sentiment. Constraining our governments from doing totally stupid things is a benefit of belonging to the EU. All the time Peter can vote to rob Paul there is never going to be a shortage of Peters, and the end result is a loss of wealth overall. However, when the EU starts imposing stupid policies off its own bat the whole idea falls apart.
For me it's a matter of balance as to whether England would be a better place for my son and his future family if we are in or out of the EU. I think, all in all, he and those unborn children will have a better life of we are outside.
Ok being a hypocrite here but have one interesting anecdote and that's it.
I work with someone from Belgium and he said in a rather shouty voice "we will put up barriers on every border to stop the British moving about. "
I said "just like you have done to prevent the illegals steaming across the continent and running riot?"
Him -- *silence*
Me - M'kay.....
I think we should not underestimate certain people making life difficult if we go. Alternatively if we stay under a threat the EU is simply a giant protection racket.
And what is 'back to normal' for Greece? Endless cycles of sovereign debt crises and devaluations, perhaps interspersed with some military dictatorship? I think Greece deserves better.
Your view of "better" appears to be Greece trapped in a permanent sovereign debt crisis (unable either to default or to devalue), and a permanent dictatorship in which the kingmakers wear suits instead of uniforms and speak English instead of Greek. I am unclear how this constitutes 'better', or indeed 'prosperous' and 'stable'. And while Greece may have had form with this kind of thing, this is less true in the cases of Ireland, Spain, Italy (etc., etc.).
Honestly, I find the disdain for democracy voiced by Remain supporters quite bizarre. A friend on Facebook claimed that the voters were too stupid to be trusted with the decision, and in the same breath announced that he had polled his class of fifteen-year olds and they all supported staying in. I look forward to the inaugural press conference for the Campaign to Re-restrict the Franchise.
One of the only edifying things about this campaign is my belated discovery of Der Spiegel. What a great site! I thought this was a good article about the risks of Brexit from a German perspective:
One of the only edifying things about this campaign is my belated discovery of Der Spiegel. What a great site! I thought this was a good article about the risks of Brexit from a German perspective:
Agreed, Mr. M., Der Spiegel also has a very good weekly newsletter that is well worth subscribing to. Listening to what our enemies* are saying amongst themselves is always a good idea.
Bit "off message" there, isn't she? That cheerful-looking bus suggests that, by voting Leave, we would be heading to a land of milk and honey - whereas I understood it was meant to lead to a Zombie apocalypse.
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
Stability is only desirable if you're stably good. Instability is better than being stably bad. It is called seeking opportunities and creativity.
It is called committing economic suicide
Sclerosis is perpetual stability. Suicide is perpetual stability. Poverty is perpetual stability. Death is perpetual stability.
Creativity, seeking opportunities, inventiveness and growth are unstable.
But too much instability and seeking opportunities are likewise bad. I appreciate you think the change-rich post-Brexit environment will be good, but others assess it differently.
Considering the EU is growing slower than the rest of the world, both developed and developing, the evidence is that our current "stability" isn't working.
One of the only edifying things about this campaign is my belated discovery of Der Spiegel. What a great site! I thought this was a good article about the risks of Brexit from a German perspective:
Der Spiegel is usually pretty good, though it has its biases - generally centre-left with a slight anti-establishment flavour - i'd guess the editors vote Green. A French equivalent is
One of the only edifying things about this campaign is my belated discovery of Der Spiegel. What a great site! I thought this was a good article about the risks of Brexit from a German perspective:
Der Spiegel is usually pretty good, though it has its biases - generally centre-left with a slight anti-establishment flavour - i'd guess the editors vote Green. A French equivalent is
- paywall for the regular edition, but a free monthly version available.
Thanks Nick. I like to read as broad a spread of publications as I can manage, otherwise one ends up in an echo chamber, so left and centre-left are particularly welcome.
Couldn't read much of it before it was covered with an ad, but I gather he wants the political elite to be allowed to get on with running us plebs without us interfering. That's the way the EU sees it. Elections, democracy, bah.
Anne. It's not hard to see that you are a Leaver but are you a Labour Leaver?
A leftie leaver. A Labour wannabe but this lot, no - come to that, last lot, no.
One of the only edifying things about this campaign is my belated discovery of Der Spiegel. What a great site! I thought this was a good article about the risks of Brexit from a German perspective:
It is clear to me that we will still have to work with the Germans to stop the French being fruit loops (which is the real reason the USA, China etc want us to stay) but we've tried hard inside.
It may be true that to a point what we have stopped is important, but what we haven't stopped which the Germans are in favour of, is the EU taking more and more power.
John Major talked of subsidiarity, it didn't actually happen. Cameron talked of returning powers. That didn't happen either.
The reality is that the German elite need to stop pushing for ever closer union. That is what is killing the EU.
It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
Stability is only desirable if you're stably good. Instability is better than being stably bad. It is called seeking opportunities and creativity.
It is called committing economic suicide
Is this the same Mark Senior that lost a gold sovereign betting we wouldn't go into recession in 2008? Excuse me if I take your commentary on economics with a degree of LOLOLOLOL!
It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
Stability is only desirable if you're stably good. Instability is better than being stably bad. It is called seeking opportunities and creativity.
It is called committing economic suicide
Sclerosis is perpetual stability. Suicide is perpetual stability. Poverty is perpetual stability. Death is perpetual stability.
Creativity, seeking opportunities, inventiveness and growth are unstable.
But too much instability and seeking opportunities are likewise bad. I appreciate you think the change-rich post-Brexit environment will be good, but others assess it differently.
Considering the EU is growing slower than the rest of the world, both developed and developing, the evidence is that our current "stability" isn't working.
No offence, Mr. Thompson, but "growth" is not a useful measure of peoples' wealth. A country with an economy that is expanding simply because it has a rapidly growing population is not actually one that is providing an increasing standard of living for its people.
Bit "off message" there, isn't she? That cheerful-looking bus suggests that, by voting Leave, we would be heading to a land of milk and honey - whereas I understood it was meant to lead to a Zombie apocalypse.
The Zombie apocalypse will be the Continent in about 10 years post-Brexit... we'll be siting on our island with our pot of gold (maybe the Swiss will have up sticks - we should offer them mid-Wales or something, if things get really bad in the Alpine region..) :P
It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
Stability is only desirable if you're stably good. Instability is better than being stably bad. It is called seeking opportunities and creativity.
It is called committing economic suicide
Sclerosis is perpetual stability. Suicide is perpetual stability. Poverty is perpetual stability. Death is perpetual stability.
Creativity, seeking opportunities, inventiveness and growth are unstable.
But too much instability and seeking opportunities are likewise bad. I appreciate you think the change-rich post-Brexit environment will be good, but others assess it differently.
Considering the EU is growing slower than the rest of the world, both developed and developing, the evidence is that our current "stability" isn't working.
No offence, Mr. Thompson, but "growth" is not a useful measure of peoples' wealth. A country with an economy that is expanding simply because it has a rapidly growing population is not actually one that is providing an increasing standard of living for its people.
It's possible to measure using GDP/capita to take that into account and it doesn't make the EU look any better.
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
There remains a chance that the pollsters are herding towards the same incorrect conclusion again like last May. They all seem to be re-weighting and re-modelling with every poll.
There remains a chance that the pollsters are herding towards the same incorrect conclusion again like last May. They all seem to be re-weighting and re-modelling with every poll.
It's almost impossible to tell what the picture is because of the reconfiguring. But I THINK we can say the trend is sharply towards Leave. Or maybe just to Leave. Or hasn't shifted over the whole bloody campaign.
Honestly, anecdote is as good as the polls this time around.
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
Labour definitely don't get it. I've sat through the Indyref and 2 subsequent elections in Scotland, where they have continued to decline. They are totally insulated from their own traditional voter base. The Guardian CiF pages are not the real world.
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
My anecdotal two pence worth: spent the morning campaigning for Remain in Notts.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
Labour definitely don't get it. I've sat through the Indyref and 2 subsequent elections in Scotland, where they have continued to decline. They are totally insulated from their own traditional voter base. The Guardian CiF pages are not the real world.
Exactly. I am beginning to think we need a Real Labour and Real Conservative party though former activists could just infiltrate the existing organisations.
It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
Stability is only desirable if you're stably good. Instability is better than being stably bad. It is called seeking opportunities and creativity.
It is called committing economic suicide
Sclerosis is perpetual stability. Suicide is perpetual stability. Poverty is perpetual stability. Death is perpetual stability.
Creativity, seeking opportunities, inventiveness and growth are unstable.
But too much instability and seeking opportunities are likewise bad. I appreciate you think the change-rich post-Brexit environment will be good, but others assess it differently.
Considering the EU is growing slower than the rest of the world, both developed and developing, the evidence is that our current "stability" isn't working.
No offence, Mr. Thompson, but "growth" is not a useful measure of peoples' wealth. A country with an economy that is expanding simply because it has a rapidly growing population is not actually one that is providing an increasing standard of living for its people.
It's possible to measure using GDP/capita to take that into account and it doesn't make the EU look any better.
Indeed, Mr. Thompson, but how many politicians, commentators do?
Since about 2008 the concentration of attention seems to me to have been on raw GDP even though probably not one in ten commentators have a clue what that means and some of those who (or at anyrate should, like HM Treasury) report the figures as if they reflected wealth.
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
My anecdotal two pence worth: spent the morning campaigning for Remain in Notts.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
Well that would be cheap flights, no roaming charges and dearer homes.
I appreciate you have your own view on what's best in the referendum and on that I disagree with you, but I do not envy the lonely furrow you have to plough in Notts.
Bit "off message" there, isn't she? That cheerful-looking bus suggests that, by voting Leave, we would be heading to a land of milk and honey - whereas I understood it was meant to lead to a Zombie apocalypse.
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it.
Whether the "old Labour" vote is going to swing it, I'm not sure although I'm starting to think it might. Their vote is what is going to decide this referendum, I feel.
And then I look at some of the things happening today... honours for Remain supporters, thinly veiled threats from foreign leaders (and Germans at that!) encouraged by Cameron and Osborne and think: none of that is going to play well with this type of voter and I am starting to think Leave could do it.
(And of course there seems to be a palpable sense of panic emanating from the IN campaign. All they seem to have left are insults and threats. To wit, my husband was away working for a few days this week - he isn't particularly interested in politics, but all he had really gathered about the debates was that they were attacking Boris and it was all vaguely distasteful).
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
My anecdotal two pence worth: spent the morning campaigning for Remain in Notts.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
Was this in Nottingham city itself ?
Or in the Hucknalls and Mansfields of North Notts.
I know a couple of people who aren't sure how to vote - I don't think they will bother.
I know 1 person leaning in, but they aren't sure whether they are going to vote.
I know many people who are commited to no - they are committed to vote - some of them the hatred of what the EU is doing to us and Europe is palpable.
Don't think it will be the walkover for in that some were predicting.
Oh, without exception everyone i have talked politics with think less (some much less) of Cameron over the way this campaign has gone / been presented.
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
My anecdotal two pence worth: spent the morning campaigning for Remain in Notts.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
Fair go, Mr. Borough. Might I ask you to consider why those of us who are richer in years are so lined up behind Leave?
In this referendum , just like GEs, I and none of my friends and acquaintances of pensionable age ever talk about themselves. Their, and my, concern is always for the future of our children and grandchildren. We want to do what is best for them not ourselves (we know we are going to be dead before the full effect of Brexit is felt).
There remains a chance that the pollsters are herding towards the same incorrect conclusion again like last May. They all seem to be re-weighting and re-modelling with every poll.
The endless fiddling makes me wonder what they're correcting for.
My anecdotal two pence worth: spent the morning campaigning for Remain in Notts.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
That's the Indyref experience - the 65+ vote was 80% No and the No campaign got them out. 14% of those registered to vote didn't turn up, and those were mainly younger voters.
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
My anecdotal two pence worth: spent the morning campaigning for Remain in Notts.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
Thanks for posting that, very interesting. Lots of people don't seem to like admitting that their chosen cause is not being as quite as well received as they might like.
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
My anecdotal two pence worth: spent the morning campaigning for Remain in Notts.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
Bit "off message" there, isn't she? That cheerful-looking bus suggests that, by voting Leave, we would be heading to a land of milk and honey - whereas I understood it was meant to lead to a Zombie apocalypse.
My reaction too. I rather like it
It looks to me like she's criticising Vote Leave for having a positive campaign.
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
My anecdotal two pence worth: spent the morning campaigning for Remain in Notts.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
I have to agree and actually I share their anger and I am not over 60 and earn a very good salary.
But hey according to Cameron I am not a patriotic person and just a little Englander.
Way to alienate someone who has voted for your party in the past champ.
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
My anecdotal two pence worth: spent the morning campaigning for Remain in Notts.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
I have to agree and actually I share their anger and I am not over 60 and earn a very good salary.
But hey according to Cameron I am not a patriotic person and just a little Englander.
Way to alienate someone who has voted for your party in the past champ.
With the FT publishing this guff no wonder some in the markets get spooked. It will need a new Chancellor to calm it all down. One who believes in Brexit.
I know a couple of people who aren't sure how to vote - I don't think they will bother.
I know 1 person leaning in, but they aren't sure whether they are going to vote.
I know many people who are commited to no - they are committed to vote - some of them the hatred of what the EU is doing to us and Europe is palpable.
Don't think it will be the walkover for in that some were predicting.
Oh, without exception everyone i have talked politics with think less (some much less) of Cameron over the way this campaign has gone / been presented.
He seems to have trashed his legacy pointlessly.
Having read thousands of comments elsewhere during the last few weeks, I can count only a handful who Cameron hasn't alienated with insults, disappointed or really annoyed. And an awful lot say how much they rated him before. It's extraordinary.
With the FT publishing this guff no wonder some in the markets get spooked. It will need a new Chancellor to calm it all down. One who believes in Brexit.
Looks like remain are having some sort of collective breakdown...
Bit "off message" there, isn't she? That cheerful-looking bus suggests that, by voting Leave, we would be heading to a land of milk and honey - whereas I understood it was meant to lead to a Zombie apocalypse.
My reaction too. I rather like it
It looks to me like she's criticising Vote Leave for having a positive campaign.
I spent yesterday evening having a meal with in-laws who are all Remainers.
Londoners, UK born from European parents. Their concerns aren't economic, but more about the rise of identity issues and scapegoating, which I can understand.
It is important that Leave maintain an absolutely reasonable tone and attitude about equality and the value of people that arrive, pay their way and support themselves.
One of the only edifying things about this campaign is my belated discovery of Der Spiegel. What a great site! I thought this was a good article about the risks of Brexit from a German perspective:
Der Spiegel is usually pretty good, though it has its biases - generally centre-left with a slight anti-establishment flavour - i'd guess the editors vote Green. A French equivalent is
- paywall for the regular edition, but a free monthly version available.
Thanks Nick. I like to read as broad a spread of publications as I can manage, otherwise one ends up in an echo chamber, so left and centre-left are particularly welcome.
which has the most wide-ranging international spread of articles that I've seen, some of them decidedly biased. I use it to follow what's happening in Syria, and you can get stuff on that from the US, Turkey, Iran, Russia and diverse Syrian outlets. They seem rather light on UK sources but they're good when an issue drops out of the UK media, e.g. if you wonder what's happening in Egypt these days.
I know a couple of people who aren't sure how to vote - I don't think they will bother.
I know 1 person leaning in, but they aren't sure whether they are going to vote.
I know many people who are commited to no - they are committed to vote - some of them the hatred of what the EU is doing to us and Europe is palpable.
Don't think it will be the walkover for in that some were predicting.
Oh, without exception everyone i have talked politics with think less (some much less) of Cameron over the way this campaign has gone / been presented.
He seems to have trashed his legacy pointlessly.
Having read thousands of comments elsewhere during the last few weeks, I can count only a handful who Cameron hasn't alienated with insults, disappointed or really annoyed. And an awful lot say how much they rated him before. It's extraordinary.
I know a couple of people who aren't sure how to vote - I don't think they will bother.
I know 1 person leaning in, but they aren't sure whether they are going to vote.
I know many people who are commited to no - they are committed to vote - some of them the hatred of what the EU is doing to us and Europe is palpable.
Don't think it will be the walkover for in that some were predicting.
Oh, without exception everyone i have talked politics with think less (some much less) of Cameron over the way this campaign has gone / been presented.
He seems to have trashed his legacy pointlessly.
Having read thousands of comments elsewhere during the last few weeks, I can count only a handful who Cameron hasn't alienated with insults, disappointed or really annoyed. And an awful lot say how much they rated him before. It's extraordinary.
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
My anecdotal two pence worth: spent the morning campaigning for Remain in Notts.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
I have to agree and actually I share their anger and I am not over 60 and earn a very good salary.
But hey according to Cameron I am not a patriotic person and just a little Englander.
Way to alienate someone who has voted for your party in the past champ.
A friend of mine is a shrink, she has a big thing re *personal values*. If someone accuses you/crosses those lines = it's visceral. You're stung by it and rarely see them in the same light ever again. Most of us don't forgive either.
That's what Remain has done again and again to a large slab of the population - and to Tories/Old Labour in particular. Once your own team has insulted you - why help them or support them again? They've become Them not Us.
With the FT publishing this guff no wonder some in the markets get spooked. It will need a new Chancellor to calm it all down. One who believes in Brexit.
"A friend of mine is a shrink, she has a big thing re *personal values*. If someone accuses you/crosses those lines = it's visceral. You're stung by it and rarely see them in the same light ever again. Most of us don't forgive either.
That's what Remain has done again and again to a large slab of the population - and to Tories/Old Labour in particular. Once your own team has insulted you - why help them or support them again? They've become Them not Us."
That's spot on. Again, I'd quote the experience of the terminally declining Labour Party in Scotland. Derided former voters who turned to the SNP at GE2015 as 'brainwashed, a cult' etc. Then wondered why doors were shut in their faces during the 2016 Holyrood election.
"A friend of mine is a shrink, she has a big thing re *personal values*. If someone accuses you/crosses those lines = it's visceral. You're stung by it and rarely see them in the same light ever again. Most of us don't forgive either.
That's what Remain has done again and again to a large slab of the population - and to Tories/Old Labour in particular. Once your own team has insulted you - why help them or support them again? They've become Them not Us."
That's spot on. Again, I'd quote the experience of the terminally declining Labour Party in Scotland. Derided former voters who turned to the SNP at GE2015 as 'brainwashed, a cult' etc. Then wondered why doors were shut in their faces during the 2016 Holyrood election.
Remain are making a lot of the same mistakes.
It looks to me like they have studied Sindy Ref and then carefully extracted all the wrong lessons from it.
"A friend of mine is a shrink, she has a big thing re *personal values*. If someone accuses you/crosses those lines = it's visceral. You're stung by it and rarely see them in the same light ever again. Most of us don't forgive either.
That's what Remain has done again and again to a large slab of the population - and to Tories/Old Labour in particular. Once your own team has insulted you - why help them or support them again? They've become Them not Us."
That's spot on. Again, I'd quote the experience of the terminally declining Labour Party in Scotland. Derided former voters who turned to the SNP at GE2015 as 'brainwashed, a cult' etc. Then wondered why doors were shut in their faces during the 2016 Holyrood election.
Remain are making a lot of the same mistakes.
It looks to me like they have studied Sindy Ref and then carefully extracted all the wrong lessons from it.
Odd.
Very good points. Every time Remain try to tar those like me as Faragists, it just pisses me off more. I've been on this site, off and on since 2006. I'd hope that no one would class me as a racist or a Little Englander.
They really need to change tactics - and that includes ditching the personal attacks on Boris. It just obscures their points and makes it look like a Tory civil war.
Alright, some anecdotal stuff from Scotland and the North West (I've a foothold in both).
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
Interesting anecdote.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
My anecdotal two pence worth: spent the morning campaigning for Remain in Notts.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
I wouldn't be so sure the young'uns who bother to vote will be monolitically pro-remain either. They have less to lose so project fear is unlikely to be getting as much traction; the idea of lower house prices etc, whether true or not, certainly seems to be.
I wouldn't be so sure the young'uns who bother to vote will be monolitically pro-remain. They have less to lose so project fear is unlikely to be getting as much traction; the idea of lower house prices etc, whether true or not, certainly seems to be.
True. If you're working on a ZHC in an Amazon warehouse, renting privately, you're far more likely to lean towards Leave. However, you're also statistically less likely to be registered to vote and/or turn out.
Absolutely not true. I suggest you go and read the EEA agreement and the analysis by the Norwegian Government (who unlike their electorate are pro-EU membership but still back up what I say). The EFTA members have the right to initiate legislation for the EEA, sit on the committees that draft the legislation and have experts contributing to its development. They do not take part in the final vote which is made by EU members alone but if they believe the legislation is counter to their national interests they will initially refuse to implement it (as they have done with both railways and postal directives) and can as a last resort veto it entirely.
Thanks for the correction on the EEA veto. This oldish article from the Norwegian Parliament explains it. At the time of writing Norway had never exercised it. Any EEA member can veto a regulation but in doing so, that will void the whole "annexe" or policy area. So if you object to a new regulation on the oversight of financial services, any veto would eliminate any common financial services oversight. The voidance applies to the whole EEA and not just the country that vetoed the regulation. I can see why Norway is nervous m about the UK joining the EEA.
The Norwegian Parliament article repeats general points about increasing constraints on the room for manoeuvre and the need for good faith to work:
So far, this right [of veto] has not been exercised. This is partly because when EU legislation is to be integrated into the EEA Agreement it is submitted to the EEA Joint Committee at the final stage of an extensive process of information and consultation between the contracting parties. The purpose of this process is to ensure that agreement is reached on such decisions. During the negotiations on the EEA Agreement, compromises were found if a state had constitutional objections to the content or could invoke fundamental national interests. Even though constitutional problems are unlikely to arise in the day-to-day EEA work, the will to reach necessary compromises must still be regarded as a basic condition for cooperation.
...
Therefore, even though Norway has a genuine right of veto which gives us freedom to manoeuvre from a legal point of view, it is the Government’s view that our room for manoeuvre both as regards finding compromises with the EU in the EEA Joint Committee and as regards exercising our right of veto has been significantly curtailed since we entered into the EEA Agreement. This trend will be exacerbated by future enlargements of the EU to include new member states.
The possibility of exercising the right of veto in the EEA is part of the larger question of the scope of Norway’s room for manoeuvre on broad policy issues relating to important economic sectors, in relation to an EU pillar in which an increasing number of policy areas are being viewed as part of an integrated whole. The problem is rendered particularly relevant by the fact that the EU is increasingly implementing measures outside the scope of the EEA Agreement which have implications for Norway’s relative competitiveness in the internal market.
Comments
Creativity, seeking opportunities, inventiveness and growth are unstable.
BTW, twenty years ago the FTSE was just over 3k. It almost hit 7k in 1999, then again in Feb 2015. In between, it's been up and down like a whore's drawers. Stock markets do move about a bit.
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
Democracy is always vulnerable to a corrupt executive promising the voters a free lunch. The firewall that should prevent this is economic reality. To that extent, Euro membership is a constraint on democracy.
Hard to believe the original was released 20 years ago!
People in the City have too much money way too young generally. But apologies for any offence caused
"Not surprised by latest polls. A Constituent said voting to leave because neighbours smoke in back garden and she can't open windows."
I pointed out that I pointed it out last week.
Honestly...
"I’m voting for Donald Trump, so I went to see him speak. Protesters broke my nose."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/06/10/im-voting-for-donald-trump-so-i-went-to-see-him-speak-protesters-broke-my-nose/?postshare=8771465587921069&tid=ss_tw
For me it's a matter of balance as to whether England would be a better place for my son and his future family if we are in or out of the EU. I think, all in all, he and those unborn children will have a better life of we are outside.
Fascists are now and always have been left wing bully boys who beat up people who don't agree with them,
I work with someone from Belgium and he said in a rather shouty voice "we will put up barriers on every border to stop the British moving about. "
I said "just like you have done to prevent the illegals steaming across the continent and running riot?"
Him -- *silence*
Me - M'kay.....
I think we should not underestimate certain people making life difficult if we go. Alternatively if we stay under a threat the EU is simply a giant protection racket.
Honestly, I find the disdain for democracy voiced by Remain supporters quite bizarre. A friend on Facebook claimed that the voters were too stupid to be trusted with the decision, and in the same breath announced that he had polled his class of fifteen-year olds and they all supported staying in. I look forward to the inaugural press conference for the Campaign to Re-restrict the Franchise.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/germany-has-much-to-lose-if-britain-leaves-a-1097029.html
*Sorry I meant partners.
I live in Central Scotland. I'm in my early 40s, voted Yes in Indyref. Most people I know (even No voting parents) are voting Remain. However, my friends/relatives in Scotland are almost exclusively middle class. I know very few people who aren't in the professions, as most of my mates are from university days or work. My pal's Dad (ex-railwayman and Old Labour) is undecided. I've been leafleted repeatedly by both sides, only seen Leave and Grassroots Out on the streets with stalls. However, there are only 5.5. million of us.
My folks live in a large village on the outskirts of Manchester. Big baby boomer population. Many working class background, highly successful e.g small/big business owners. Almost all my mother's friends are voting Leave. They know they had it good, all own at least one large home mortgage free. They don't see the same lifestyle afforded to their kids/grandkids, lots of whom are university educated. Some of the most vociferous Leavers are immigrants themselves (EU and non EU).
My gut tells me that the 'old Labour' vote in England and Wales is going to swing it. Most of them wouldn't vote UKIP but see no problem with voting Leave. I'd be unsurprised to see 55-45...
(I'm swithering between Remain and undecided).
http://mondediplo.com/
- paywall for the regular edition, but a free monthly version available.
It may be true that to a point what we have stopped is important, but what we haven't stopped which the Germans are in favour of, is the EU taking more and more power.
John Major talked of subsidiarity, it didn't actually happen. Cameron talked of returning powers. That didn't happen either.
The reality is that the German elite need to stop pushing for ever closer union. That is what is killing the EU.
The political parties don't get it. Mainly because they've hollowed out their activist base which is why they need battle buses to move activists around. When the parties had membership in the millions delivering leaflets was easy. Now they have policy wonks and PPE peeps a plenty they don't have enough troops.
Honestly, anecdote is as good as the polls this time around.
Depressingly large number of Leave voters out and about. Not only that, they are angry, passionate and going to vote (indeed many have already by postal). Very clear that those over about 60 are voting in huge numbers for Leave.
Bleak for Remain, very bleak, unless something persuades younger people to turn out.
Phew, it's okay - they've only got McAfee....
Since about 2008 the concentration of attention seems to me to have been on raw GDP even though probably not one in ten commentators have a clue what that means and some of those who (or at anyrate should, like HM Treasury) report the figures as if they reflected wealth.
I appreciate you have your own view on what's best in the referendum and on that I disagree with you, but I do not envy the lonely furrow you have to plough in Notts.
And then I look at some of the things happening today... honours for Remain supporters, thinly veiled threats from foreign leaders (and Germans at that!) encouraged by Cameron and Osborne and think: none of that is going to play well with this type of voter and I am starting to think Leave could do it.
(And of course there seems to be a palpable sense of panic emanating from the IN campaign. All they seem to have left are insults and threats. To wit, my husband was away working for a few days this week - he isn't particularly interested in politics, but all he had really gathered about the debates was that they were attacking Boris and it was all vaguely distasteful).
Or in the Hucknalls and Mansfields of North Notts.
If the latter, then I am not so surprised.
If the former, then Remain are in for a beating.
I know a couple of people who aren't sure how to vote - I don't think they will bother.
I know 1 person leaning in, but they aren't sure whether they are going to vote.
I know many people who are commited to no - they are committed to vote - some of them the hatred of what the EU is doing to us and Europe is palpable.
Don't think it will be the walkover for in that some were predicting.
Oh, without exception everyone i have talked politics with think less (some much less) of Cameron over the way this campaign has gone / been presented.
He seems to have trashed his legacy pointlessly.
In this referendum , just like GEs, I and none of my friends and acquaintances of pensionable age ever talk about themselves. Their, and my, concern is always for the future of our children and grandchildren. We want to do what is best for them not ourselves (we know we are going to be dead before the full effect of Brexit is felt).
Did they tell you why they were voting Leave?
But hey according to Cameron I am not a patriotic person and just a little Englander.
Way to alienate someone who has voted for your party in the past champ.
"Brexit would be a disaster for Europe... We've lost sight of possibility of a relapse into barbarism. Timothy Garton Ash Via @fromTGA http://app.ft.com/cms/s/7f7c29d6-2e57-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html?siteedition=uk …
With the FT publishing this guff no wonder some in the markets get spooked. It will need a new Chancellor to calm it all down. One who believes in Brexit.
Londoners, UK born from European parents. Their concerns aren't economic, but more about the rise of identity issues and scapegoating, which I can understand.
It is important that Leave maintain an absolutely reasonable tone and attitude about equality and the value of people that arrive, pay their way and support themselves.
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/
which has the most wide-ranging international spread of articles that I've seen, some of them decidedly biased. I use it to follow what's happening in Syria, and you can get stuff on that from the US, Turkey, Iran, Russia and diverse Syrian outlets. They seem rather light on UK sources but they're good when an issue drops out of the UK media, e.g. if you wonder what's happening in Egypt these days.
John Rentoul Verified account
@JohnRentoul
Two polls tonight, both also online. YouGov & Opinium both had Remain 51%, Leave 49% last http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/eu-referendum
12:55 PM - 11 Jun 2016
That's what Remain has done again and again to a large slab of the population - and to Tories/Old Labour in particular. Once your own team has insulted you - why help them or support them again? They've become Them not Us.
"A friend of mine is a shrink, she has a big thing re *personal values*. If someone accuses you/crosses those lines = it's visceral. You're stung by it and rarely see them in the same light ever again. Most of us don't forgive either.
That's what Remain has done again and again to a large slab of the population - and to Tories/Old Labour in particular. Once your own team has insulted you - why help them or support them again? They've become Them not Us."
That's spot on. Again, I'd quote the experience of the terminally declining Labour Party in Scotland. Derided former voters who turned to the SNP at GE2015 as 'brainwashed, a cult' etc. Then wondered why doors were shut in their faces during the 2016 Holyrood election.
Remain are making a lot of the same mistakes.
Remain are making a lot of the same mistakes.
It looks to me like they have studied Sindy Ref and then carefully extracted all the wrong lessons from it.
Odd.
Odd.
Very good points. Every time Remain try to tar those like me as Faragists, it just pisses me off more. I've been on this site, off and on since 2006. I'd hope that no one would class me as a racist or a Little Englander.
They really need to change tactics - and that includes ditching the personal attacks on Boris. It just obscures their points and makes it look like a Tory civil war.
True. If you're working on a ZHC in an Amazon warehouse, renting privately, you're far more likely to lean towards Leave. However, you're also statistically less likely to be registered to vote and/or turn out.
I need more polling...
The Norwegian Parliament article repeats general points about increasing constraints on the room for manoeuvre and the need for good faith to work:
So far, this right [of veto] has not been exercised. This is partly because when EU legislation is to be integrated into the EEA Agreement it is submitted to the EEA Joint Committee at the final stage of an extensive process of information and consultation between the contracting parties. The purpose of this process is to ensure that agreement is reached on such decisions. During the negotiations on the EEA Agreement, compromises were found if a state had constitutional objections to the content or could invoke fundamental national interests. Even though constitutional problems are unlikely to arise in the day-to-day EEA work, the will to reach necessary compromises must still be regarded as a basic condition for cooperation.
...
Therefore, even though Norway has a genuine right of veto which gives us freedom to manoeuvre from a legal point of view, it is the Government’s view that our room for manoeuvre both as regards finding compromises with the EU in the EEA Joint Committee and as regards exercising our right of veto has been significantly curtailed since we entered into the EEA Agreement. This trend will be exacerbated by future enlargements of the EU to include new member states.
The possibility of exercising the right of veto in the EEA is part of the larger question of the scope of Norway’s room for manoeuvre on broad policy issues relating to important economic sectors, in relation to an EU pillar in which an increasing number of policy areas are being viewed as part of an integrated whole. The problem is rendered particularly relevant by the fact that the EU is increasingly implementing measures outside the scope of the EEA Agreement which have implications for Norway’s relative competitiveness in the internal market.
new thread
She who must be obeyed reports that the overwhelmig consensus of the mothers at the school gate is OUT.
Among the reasons is that we always come last in the Eurovision song contest so they clearly dont want us!