Well it is not the priority in a religious festival no but that does not mean you cannot take 5 minutes out of the day to put a cross on a ballot paper
Islams view of gender-equality does not marry with the West's. Outwith Indonesia it is a sad fact but true.
Indeed but that does prevent them voting in the UK
I see football fans from across Europe are taking the chance to sample the delights of the south of France at this time of year & fully embracing the cafe culture!!!!!
EU will be praying that England votes to leave after another 2 weeks of riots
England fans are no different from Hibernian supported. Apart from the former can pay for themselves.
Can go nowhere without disgracing the country and the gutter press have the temerity to call them British
At least we're spared the cringeworthy presence of the goody-goody Tartan Army in their clown costumes and ginger fright wigs.
Here in North west London I have seen no posters for either side. There is no sign of an election. Even in the GE there are more signs of an election with a few small businesses displaying tory posters.
Turnout will be lower than G.E. for sure. Which will hurt remain.
Of the people I have spoken to, people who I thought were definite Remain are Leave. Forget Remain having the ethnic minority vote by more than 10% margin in London. Not going to happen. Atleast when you take into differential turnout. Leavers are pissed, and nothing but nothing will stop them whereas a lot off Remainers who are Muslim won't turn out due to fasting 20+hours a day which has not been factored in by anyone. The fast opens a quarter to ten, leaving 15 mins to vote, sorry this is going to hurt remain more.
I was in Stoke Newington last night at a wedding almost entirely ABs, all under 35s. I saw at least three Remain posters as well in people's windows.
Remain central.
Of my friends, two were very strongly Remain (and both got a bit huffy at me), one was a very reluctant Remainer, another *still* on the fence, but very impressed by Andrea Leadsom, and one switcher to Leave. A couple had read my blog (and seriously thought about Leave) but decided Remain on balance. No-one was effusive about the EU.
Interestingly, almost everyone's parents are Leave.
I don't know what that means. But I don't think Remain is collapsing in London - they will get a very good vote there - but they might not all turn out.
I found your blog very helpful after you referred me to it a couple of weeks ago, but it was Leadsom who finally convinced me to vote Leave. I hadn't quite realised how much the 'progressive' forces depend on the EU to shield them from the electorate until I saw the exchange between her and Sturgeon. It froze my blood to think that there are politicians who genuinely believe that policy needs to be protected from the will of the people by an intermediary such as the EU.
I don't know what I'm going to do about my house in France though....
From what I see around here the locals have no restraints on breeding. In the doctor's waiting room, the Co-op and around the village generally I see plenty of, mainly fat, young women with two or more children in tow. Most of them are single mothers, living on benefits and, of those I chat to whilst waiting in the queue, most are educationally challenged to say the least.
To be blunt we need quality not just quantity.
The Danes are a bit worried but they're working on it:
The EU institutions decide and we implement those decisions. There is no veto. There is a mechanism for conveying an opinion, which is not likely to be weighed particularly heavily by the EC Council or Parliament.
Agree that the scope of the EEA is smaller than the EU , but is still extensive, incorporating in Article 1 of the agreement the following:
(a) the free movement of goods; (b) the free movement of persons; (c) the free movement of services; (d) the free movement of capital; (e) the setting up of a system ensuring that competition is not distorted and that the rules thereon are equally respected; as well as (f) closer cooperation in other fields, such as research and development, the environment, education and social policy.
Absolutely not true. I suggest you go and read the EEA agreement and the analysis by the Norwegian Government (who unlike their electorate are pro-EU membership but still back up what I say). The EFTA members have the right to initiate legislation for the EEA, sit on the committees that draft the legislation and have experts contributing to its development. They do not take part in the final vote which is made by EU members alone but if they believe the legislation is counter to their national interests they will initially refuse to implement it (as they have done with both railways and postal directives) and can as a last resort veto it entirely.
Has Cameron hired that shady outfit who Zanu-pf used to help them to victory in tbe last Zimbabwe elections?
We don't make anything, we can't do big infrastructure projects, and now we can't even run a decent election.
Clearly another example of the 'boring dull competence' of the establishment that Alastair Meeks warns us we may be in danger of sweeping away. Heaven forbid.
Here in North west London I have seen no posters for either side. There is no sign of an election. Even in the GE there are more signs of an election with a few small businesses displaying tory posters.
Turnout will be lower than G.E. for sure. Which will hurt remain.
Of the people I have spoken to, people who I thought were definite Remain are Leave. Forget Remain having the ethnic minority vote by more than 10% margin in London. Not going to happen. Atleast when you take into differential turnout. Leavers are pissed, and nothing but nothing will stop them whereas a lot off Remainers who are Muslim won't turn out due to fasting 20+hours a day which has not been factored in by anyone. The fast opens a quarter to ten, leaving 15 mins to vote, sorry this is going to hurt remain more.
I was in Stoke Newington last night at a wedding almost entirely ABs, all under 35s. I saw at least three Remain posters as well in people's windows.
Remain central.
Of my friends, two were very strongly Remain (and both got a bit huffy at me), one was a very reluctant Remainer, another *still* on the fence, but very impressed by Andrea Leadsom, and one switcher to Leave. A couple had read my blog (and seriously thought about Leave) but decided Remain on balance. No-one was effusive about the EU.
Interestingly, almost everyone's parents are Leave.
I don't know what that means. But I don't think Remain is collapsing in London - they will get a very good vote there - but they might not all turn out.
I found your blog very helpful after you referred me to it a couple of weeks ago, but it was Leadsom who finally convinced me to vote Leave. I hadn't quite realised how much the 'progressive' forces depend on the EU to shield them from the electorate until I saw the exchange between her and Sturgeon. It froze my blood to think that there are politicians who genuinely believe that policy needs to be protected from the will of the people by an intermediary such as the EU.
I don't know what I'm going to do about my house in France though....
I've several Leave friends who've properties in France - they're not worried at all.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man. EU ref came up. He was very dismissive of my warnings about 'covering himself' on Leave, and has just gone in even deeper with another £20k. He's convinced it'll be 56:44 to Remain.
Do you know, this annoys the fuck out of me. To arrive at my present betting position[1] I did the following
* Got Gallup's 1975 polls, "The 1975 referendum" and "Full-hearted consent" from the library via inter-library loans. (The books are great btw) * Checked the prediction errors for the polls for about seven previous referenda on EU and UK (they are shocking btw) * Carefully saved about £250 pcm for about three months (it would have been more but I had some unexpected expenses) * Placed a bet on the London Mayoral in a physical betting shop to overcome fear and create a muscle memory
That's about six months of full-on work. And along comes Mr Dickless Bank Director and throws away £20K on the wrong result because his gut says so
Rich people don't deserve money, they really dont...
[1] £500pcm@5/2 and £250pcm@4/2 on LEAVE. I may have mentioned it.
Why should it annoy you? He'll be the one paying for your winnings.
Most of the polls are showing slightly more voters saying they will vote in the EU referendum than the next general election, so I am going to put turnout at close to 70%. I still think Remain will win but I cannot see it being by a bigger margin than 52% 48% or even tighter, I think at least about 35% of Labour voters will now vote Leave which means Remain need 40%+ of Tories to vote In to have a chance with UKIP voters overwhelmingly pro Leave and a significant number of SNP voters voting Leave too (LDs and Greens will be heavily for Remain). If I were Remain I would be heavily targeting Times reading upper middle class Tories in the more prosperous parts of London and the South East
Yet, they are not. They are focusing on London/NI/Scotland. Leave are still pushing hard in Surrey and parts of Hampshire.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man.
Ok, I understand:
But when did this anecdote occur? Call me simple but somehow it is not clear.....
Last night.
I have seen Remain campaigners in West Kent which is the more prosperous part of the county, they need to expand that elsewhere in the Home Counties. The Medway Towns will be strongly for Leave as will areas like Portsmouth and most of the villages, Remain need to target prosperous commuter towns like Sevenoaks, Horsham, Reading and Guildford as well the graduate filled cities of Brighton and Oxford
Remain are street stalling in Guildford, Reading and Petersfield. I know that much.
According to the websites, Remain are continuing to "out-event" Leave nationwide. But I don't know how much Leave is doing that's off the radar.
Here in North west London I have seen no posters for either side. There is no sign of an election. Even in the GE there are more signs of an election with a few small businesses displaying tory posters.
Turnout will be lower than G.E. for sure. Which will hurt remain.
Of the people I have spoken to, people who I thought were definite Remain are Leave. Forget Remain having the ethnic minority vote by more than 10% margin in London. Not going to happen. Atleast when you take into differential turnout. Leavers are pissed, and nothing but nothing will stop them whereas a lot off Remainers who are Muslim won't turn out due to fasting 20+hours a day which has not been factored in by anyone. The fast opens a quarter to ten, leaving 15 mins to vote, sorry this is going to hurt remain more.
I was in Stoke Newington last night at a wedding almost entirely ABs, all under 35s. I saw at least three Remain posters as well in people's windows.
Remain central.
Of my friends, two were very strongly Remain (and both got a bit huffy at me), one was a very reluctant Remainer, another *still* on the fence, but very impressed by Andrea Leadsom, and one switcher to Leave. A couple had read my blog (and seriously thought about Leave) but decided Remain on balance. No-one was effusive about the EU.
Interestingly, almost everyone's parents are Leave.
I don't know what that means. But I don't think Remain is collapsing in London - they will get a very good vote there - but they might not all turn out.
I found your blog very helpful after you referred me to it a couple of weeks ago, but it was Leadsom who finally convinced me to vote Leave. I hadn't quite realised how much the 'progressive' forces depend on the EU to shield them from the electorate until I saw the exchange between her and Sturgeon. It froze my blood to think that there are politicians who genuinely believe that policy needs to be protected from the will of the people by an intermediary such as the EU.
I don't know what I'm going to do about my house in France though....
I've several Leave friends who've properties in France - they're not worried at all.
And welcome to the Dark Side, it's lovely here.
It is lovely, you don't need sun-screen or anything....
And don't worry about the property in France. You won't be able to get to it anyway.
Here in North west London I have seen no posters for either side. There is no sign of an election. Even in the GE there are more signs of an election with a few small businesses displaying tory posters.
Turnout will be lower than G.E. for sure. Which will hurt remain.
Of the people I have spoken to, people who I thought were definite Remain are Leave. Forget Remain having the ethnic minority vote by more than 10% margin in London. Not going to happen. Atleast when you take into differential turnout. Leavers are pissed, and nothing but nothing will stop them whereas a lot off Remainers who are Muslim won't turn out due to fasting 20+hours a day which has not been factored in by anyone. The fast opens a quarter to ten, leaving 15 mins to vote, sorry this is going to hurt remain more.
I was in Stoke Newington last night at a wedding almost entirely ABs, all under 35s. I saw at least three Remain posters as well in people's windows.
Remain central.
Of my friends, two were very strongly Remain (and both got a bit huffy at me), one was a very reluctant Remainer, another *still* on the fence, but very impressed by Andrea Leadsom, and one switcher to Leave. A couple had read my blog (and seriously thought about Leave) but decided Remain on balance. No-one was effusive about the EU.
Interestingly, almost everyone's parents are Leave.
I don't know what that means. But I don't think Remain is collapsing in London - they will get a very good vote there - but they might not all turn out.
I found your blog very helpful after you referred me to it a couple of weeks ago, but it was Leadsom who finally convinced me to vote Leave. I hadn't quite realised how much the 'progressive' forces depend on the EU to shield them from the electorate until I saw the exchange between her and Sturgeon. It froze my blood to think that there are politicians who genuinely believe that policy needs to be protected from the will of the people by an intermediary such as the EU.
I don't know what I'm going to do about my house in France though....
Thanks TudorRose. Yes, it shows what we're up against.
Here in North west London I have seen no posters for either side. There is no sign of an election. Even in the GE there are more signs of an election with a few small businesses displaying tory posters.
Turnout will be lower than G.E. for sure. Which will hurt remain.
Of the people I have spoken to, people who I thought were definite Remain are Leave. Forget Remain having the ethnic minority vote by more than 10% margin in London. Not going to happen. Atleast when you take into differential turnout. Leavers are pissed, and nothing but nothing will stop them whereas a lot off Remainers who are Muslim won't turn out due to fasting 20+hours a day which has not been factored in by anyone. The fast opens a quarter to ten, leaving 15 mins to vote, sorry this is going to hurt remain more.
I was in Stoke Newington last night at a wedding almost entirely ABs, all under 35s. I saw at least three Remain posters as well in people's windows.
Remain central.
Of my friends, two were very strongly Remain (and both got a bit huffy at me), one was a very reluctant Remainer, another *still* on the fence, but very impressed by Andrea Leadsom, and one switcher to Leave. A couple had read my blog (and seriously thought about Leave) but decided Remain on balance. No-one was effusive about the EU.
Interestingly, almost everyone's parents are Leave.
I don't know what that means. But I don't think Remain is collapsing in London - they will get a very good vote there - but they might not all turn out.
I found your blog very helpful after you referred me to it a couple of weeks ago, but it was Leadsom who finally convinced me to vote Leave. I hadn't quite realised how much the 'progressive' forces depend on the EU to shield them from the electorate until I saw the exchange between her and Sturgeon. It froze my blood to think that there are politicians who genuinely believe that policy needs to be protected from the will of the people by an intermediary such as the EU.
I don't know what I'm going to do about my house in France though....
Thanks - there's very little action on the referendum up here in north Lancashire. No leaflets, no posters, no canvassing; we have to do all the thinking for ourselves! Even the university is surprisingly quiet on the issue.
Can go nowhere without disgracing the country and the gutter press have the temerity to call them British
To be fair:
They are English fans expressing a view on the EU-Ref. Not sure if the Welsh nor Ulster-Jocks would be as bold. The Scots could have but they failed to make the grade.
We will see if they have bottle, at best they will need Scotland to stiffen their backbone or its down and out.
Here in North west London I have seen no posters for either side. There is no sign of an election. Even in the GE there are more signs of an election with a few small businesses displaying tory posters.
Turnout will be lower than G.E. for sure. Which will hurt remain.
Of the people I have spoken to, people who I thought were definite Remain are Leave. Forget Remain having the ethnic minority vote by more than 10% margin in London. Not going to happen. Atleast when you take into differential turnout. Leavers are pissed, and nothing but nothing will stop them whereas a lot off Remainers who are Muslim won't turn out due to fasting 20+hours a day which has not been factored in by anyone. The fast opens a quarter to ten, leaving 15 mins to vote, sorry this is going to hurt remain more.
I was in Stoke Newington last night at a wedding almost entirely ABs, all under 35s. I saw at least three Remain posters as well in people's windows.
Remain central.
Of my friends, two were very strongly Remain (and both got a bit huffy at me), one was a very reluctant Remainer, another *still* on the fence, but very impressed by Andrea Leadsom, and one switcher to Leave. A couple had read my blog (and seriously thought about Leave) but decided Remain on balance. No-one was effusive about the EU.
Interestingly, almost everyone's parents are Leave.
I don't know what that means. But I don't think Remain is collapsing in London - they will get a very good vote there - but they might not all turn out.
I found your blog very helpful after you referred me to it a couple of weeks ago, but it was Leadsom who finally convinced me to vote Leave. I hadn't quite realised how much the 'progressive' forces depend on the EU to shield them from the electorate until I saw the exchange between her and Sturgeon. It froze my blood to think that there are politicians who genuinely believe that policy needs to be protected from the will of the people by an intermediary such as the EU.
I don't know what I'm going to do about my house in France though....
I've several Leave friends who've properties in France - they're not worried at all.
And welcome to the Dark Side, it's lovely here.
Brits own properties in non-EU countries around the world, including Florida and Australia.
Here in North west London I have seen no posters for either side. There is no sign of an election. Even in the GE there are more signs of an election with a few small businesses displaying tory posters.
Turnout will be lower than G.E. for sure. Which will hurt remain.
Of the people I have spoken to, people who I thought were definite Remain are Leave. Forget Remain having the ethnic minority vote by more than 10% margin in London. Not going to happen. Atleast when you take into differential turnout. Leavers are pissed, and nothing but nothing will stop them whereas a lot off Remainers who are Muslim won't turn out due to fasting 20+hours a day which has not been factored in by anyone. The fast opens a quarter to ten, leaving 15 mins to vote, sorry this is going to hurt remain more.
I was in Stoke Newington last night at a wedding almost entirely ABs, all under 35s. I saw at least three Remain posters as well in people's windows.
Remain central.
Of my friends, two were very strongly Remain (and both got a bit huffy at me), one was a very reluctant Remainer, another *still* on the fence, but very impressed by Andrea Leadsom, and one switcher to Leave. A couple had read my blog (and seriously thought about Leave) but decided Remain on balance. No-one was effusive about the EU.
Interestingly, almost everyone's parents are Leave.
I don't know what that means. But I don't think Remain is collapsing in London - they will get a very good vote there - but they might not all turn out.
I found your blog very helpful after you referred me to it a couple of weeks ago, but it was Leadsom who finally convinced me to vote Leave. I hadn't quite realised how much the 'progressive' forces depend on the EU to shield them from the electorate until I saw the exchange between her and Sturgeon. It froze my blood to think that there are politicians who genuinely believe that policy needs to be protected from the will of the people by an intermediary such as the EU.
I don't know what I'm going to do about my house in France though....
I've several Leave friends who've properties in France - they're not worried at all.
And welcome to the Dark Side, it's lovely here.
It is lovely, you don't need sun-screen or anything....
And don't worry about the property in France. You won't be able to get to it anyway.
Most of the polls are showing slightly more voters saying they will vote in the EU referendum than the next general election, so I am going to put turnout at close to 70%. I still think Remain will win but I cannot see it being by a bigger margin than 52% 48% or even tighter, I think at least about 35% of Labour voters will now vote Leave which means Remain need 40%+ of Tories to vote In to have a chance with UKIP voters overwhelmingly pro Leave and a significant number of SNP voters voting Leave too (LDs and Greens will be heavily for Remain). If I were Remain I would be heavily targeting Times reading upper middle class Tories in the more prosperous parts of London and the South East
Yet, they are not. They are focusing on London/NI/Scotland. Leave are still pushing hard in Surrey and parts of Hampshire.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man.
Ok, I understand:
But when did this anecdote occur? Call me simple but somehow it is not clear.....
Last night.
I have seen Remain campaigners in West Kent which is the more prosperous part of the county, they need to expand that elsewhere in the Home Counties. The Medway Towns will be strongly for Leave as will areas like Portsmouth and most of the villages, Remain need to target prosperous commuter towns like Sevenoaks, Horsham, Reading and Guildford as well the graduate filled cities of Brighton and Oxford
Remain are street stalling in Guildford, Reading and Petersfield. I know that much.
According to the websites, Remain are continuing to "out-event" Leave nationwide. But I don't know how much Leave is doing that's off the radar.
Leave may be doing more leafleting, Remain more events we shall see. Yes, the key 'marginals' in this referendum as it were will be the likes of Guildford and Petersfield and Reading that is where this referendum will be decided, for example I would expect Guildford to be far tighter than Basildon or Nuneaton which will vote strongly for Leave. Chester in the northwest is also likely to be a key swing area, Blackpool will be strongly for Leave, Manchester for Remain etc
Has Cameron hired that shady outfit who Zanu-pf used to help them to victory in tbe last Zimbabwe elections?
We don't make anything, we can't do big infrastructure projects, and now we can't even run a decent election.
Clearly another example of the 'boring dull competence' of the establishment that Alastair Meeks warns us we may be in danger of sweeping away. Heaven forbid.
It makes me heartily ashamed of my country.
As someone pointed out earlier - central government control of council pokicies and spending results in crap tame and corrupt.time server councillors.
Ditto EU control and restraint over parliament policies wnd spending.
When we are out and parliament is again sovereign and civil servants can no longer tell ministers that the EU rules do not allow this, tben the quality of election candidates will soon enough rise
I see football fans from across Europe are taking the chance to sample the delights of the south of France at this time of year & fully embracing the cafe culture!!!!!
EU will be praying that England votes to leave after another 2 weeks of riots
England fans are no different from Hibernian supported. Apart from the former can pay for themselves.
Can go nowhere without disgracing the country and the gutter press have the temerity to call them British
At least we're spared the cringeworthy presence of the goody-goody Tartan Army in their clown costumes and ginger fright wigs.
They get invited back and act like human beings on the other hand, not neanderthals. Your lot only get invited back for the court cases and jail sentences.
Just back from my morning walk during which I met and chatted with Nick Herbert, my local MP. He was out canvassing for Remain. He is a good and persuasive speaker, not a bad MP (though he does have a very bad case of safe seatitis), and I think a genuinely nice bloke. It is a shame his ministerial career was brought to an abrupt halt by the disgraceful, and probably illegal action of some police officers, but that is a story for another day.
Anyway to get the point, we had a pleasant conversation during which he tried to convince me vote for remain and I explained to him why I would not be doing so. In that discussion he referred to people who come here from abroad to live as "New Citizens", never once did he mention the word "immigrant" or even "immigration". A rather ingenious attempt to reframe an issue which is unhelpful Remain I thought. I wonder if we will be hearing more of "New Citizens" in the future.
Did you point out to him that Brits are not citizens, but subjects?
Surely we are all citizens of the great EU?
Yes - but then other EU migrants are not "New Citizens"
Can go nowhere without disgracing the country and the gutter press have the temerity to call them British
To be fair:
They are English fans expressing a view on the EU-Ref. Not sure if the Welsh nor Ulster-Jocks would be as bold. The Scots could have but they failed to make the grade.
We will see if they have bottle, at best they will need Scotland to stiffen their backbone or its down and out.
If it is 51% 49% Remain, which is about the best Remain now can hope for, then you may well get your wish MrG and Scotland could be what takes Remain over the line.
Investors fled to safe havens yesterday, rattled by global growth worries and fears that Britain could vote to leave the European Union. More than £39 billion was removed from London-listed share prices while demand for gilts and other sovereign bonds pushed yields down to record lows. The pound also fell.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man. EU ref came up. He was very dismissive of my warnings about 'covering himself' on Leave, and has just gone in even deeper with another £20k. He's convinced it'll be 56:44 to Remain.
Do you know, this annoys the fuck out of me. To arrive at my present betting position[1] I did the following
* Got Gallup's 1975 polls, "The 1975 referendum" and "Full-hearted consent" from the library via inter-library loans. (The books are great btw) * Checked the prediction errors for the polls for about seven previous referenda on EU and UK (they are shocking btw) * Carefully saved about £250 pcm for about three months (it would have been more but I had some unexpected expenses) * Placed a bet on the London Mayoral in a physical betting shop to overcome fear and create a muscle memory
That's about six months of full-on work. And along comes Mr Dickless Bank Director and throws away £20K on the wrong result because his gut says so
Rich people don't deserve money, they really dont...
[1] £500pcm@5/2 and £250pcm@4/2 on LEAVE. I may have mentioned it.
Why should it annoy you? He'll be the one paying for your winnings.
Two reasons
1) The enpoverishment of others does not exalt me. You'd think it'd be the exact opposite, but it's not. I've been on the winning and losing sides enough times now to know that things hurt, and I don't actually like seeing the suffering of others
2) PJ O'Rourke once wrote of the whiffle-ball life, where people live in a comfortable, insulated environment where they are always insulated from the bad effects of their actions. Nothing that Mr Deutsche Bank director will ever do will hurt him nor remove him from the lifestyle he leads, no matter how badly or stupidly he behaves. It violates my sense of propriety.
Investors fled to safe havens yesterday, rattled by global growth worries and fears that Britain could vote to leave the European Union. More than £39 billion was removed from London-listed share prices while demand for gilts and other sovereign bonds pushed yields down to record lows. The pound also fell.
if they believe the legislation is counter to their national interests they will initially refuse to implement it (as they have done with both railways and postal directives) and can as a last resort veto it entirely.
Norway also vetoed EU oil regulation on the ground it fell outside the terms of the EEA agreement.
Incidentally, that Spiegel article isn't as nice as the cover makes it appear:
"if Britain is clever, it will realise that it is not a world power on its own" "If it votes to leave because a disproportionately high number of older and less well-educated British want it so passionately" "hopefully, it will be the other way round: Should the British vote against Brexit, perhaps by 55% or 60% rather than 50.1%, then that would be a mandate. Then the British should stop doing the things that have irritated the rest of Europe for years: special requests, self-pity and wretched haggling over every last detail."
Nigel Farage has been going from town hall to television studio, hawking the false idea that Brexit will make our immigration problem go away. And tonight, at long last, he was rumbled.
Wouldn't it simply be easier to have EFTA/EEA as the explicit destination?
If, as is increasingly likely, we vote for Leave, I would say EEA is the most likely outcome.
If you follow the "negotiations" between EU and Switzerland you can get a good clue of how our negotiations are likely to turn out. So we trigger Article 50 and go to some Eurocrat stooge - typically Juncker - and say, "We like the idea of a single market, but no freedom of movement requirement and we want to have a veto over other aspects we dislike. Please put that to the EC Council". Juncker will then say, "Won't fly. Happy to put your proposals to the Council when you have changed your mind. You can talk to me anytime you like." Then we go, "But the clock is ticking. We may end up with nothing at all.". Juncker: "Sure. Let me know when you have changed your mind."
Given that, we can either hold off calling Article 50 indefinitely, which will keep us in a state of limbo. Or we can just accept what we get through Article 50, which likely won't be much at all. "Fog in the Channel. Continent cut off." probably isn't the end goal serious people are looking for.
Which brings us to the EEA. It has the great advantage of being off the shelf and pre-negotiated. Ostensibly membership is in the control of EFTA, not the EU and it gives us the free market. As I say, I think that is what we will end up with.
Unfortunately, I don't think the EEA will work for Britain because it retains the main things that people object to about the EU, while removing many of the foundations that keep the EU operating after a fashion. It's a package deal where we are committed not just to what's in it now but also what we will be added later. It retains the requirement to freedom of movement. And we are still subject to remote decision making out of Brussels.
Even the claimed advantage of not being part of EU instititions is actually a disadvantage. Being told what to do by EU institutions you are not a member of is worse again. That's where the EEA will break down. Right now we are reluctant members of the EU but there is a coherence to it. If as an EEA member we think we are not bound any more and we can do what we like, we will stress that relationship past breaking point.
My point is, whatever your views are on the goodness of the EU, it is better on the practicalities than the two plausible Leave options. It is going to be a huge mess.
We put a position to the EU then go and negotiate other trade deals.
They will work out that they need access to our market though by the time they may have lost market share.
Fog in Channel option? It's a reasonable approach, but not one that will deliver results. Any results. Not just bad ones. As I say it is worth looking at the EU-Swiss negotiations. The former are quite content to stall for decades. The first time round, the Swiss blinked. We will see if they do the same next year following the referendum committing to the end of freedom of movement.
Switzerland needs the EU. We don't. It would be nice to have, but it's not the end of the world
Most of the polls are showing slightly more voters saying they will vote in the EU referendum than the next general election, so I am going to put turnout at close to 70%. I still think Remain will win but I cannot see it being by a bigger margin than 52% 48% or even tighter, I think at least about 35% of Labour voters will now vote Leave which means Remain need 40%+ of Tories to vote In to have a chance with UKIP voters overwhelmingly pro Leave and a significant number of SNP voters voting Leave too (LDs and Greens will be heavily for Remain). If I were Remain I would be heavily targeting Times reading upper middle class Tories in the more prosperous parts of London and the South East
Yet, they are not. They are focusing on London/NI/Scotland. Leave are still pushing hard in Surrey and parts of Hampshire.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man.
Ok, I understand:
But when did this anecdote occur? Call me simple but somehow it is not clear.....
Last night.
I have seen Remain campaigners in West Kent which is the more prosperous part of the county, they need to expand that elsewhere in the Home Counties. The Medway Towns will be strongly for Leave as will areas like Portsmouth and most of the villages, Remain need to target prosperous commuter towns like Sevenoaks, Horsham, Reading and Guildford as well the graduate filled cities of Brighton and Oxford
Remain are street stalling in Guildford, Reading and Petersfield. I know that much.
According to the websites, Remain are continuing to "out-event" Leave nationwide. But I don't know how much Leave is doing that's off the radar.
Leave may be doing more leafleting, Remain more events we shall see. Yes, the key 'marginals' in this referendum as it were will be the likes of Guildford and Petersfield and Reading that is where this referendum will be decided, for example I would expect Guildford to be far tighter than Basildon or Nuneaton which will vote strongly for Leave. Chester in the northwest is also likely to be a key swing area, Blackpool will be strongly for Leave, Manchester for Remain etc
I think Chester will go Leave.
If I had to take a punt, I think more middle-class/affluent Tories than expected may go for Remain, but more Labour voters for Leave.
Investors fled to safe havens yesterday, rattled by global growth worries and fears that Britain could vote to leave the European Union. More than £39 billion was removed from London-listed share prices while demand for gilts and other sovereign bonds pushed yields down to record lows. The pound also fell.
Well Cameron should stop frightening everyone with his scaremongering.
Yes. It's all down to one man who can move markets with his breath. Nothing to do with a country deciding to leave the largest trading bloc on the world because it wishes to reduce the number of immigrants and is willing to drive the economy off the cliff in order to do so.
Most of the polls are showing slightly more voters saying they will vote in the EU referendum than the next general election, so I am going to put turnout at close to 70%. I still think Remain will win but I cannot see it being by a bigger margin than 52% 48% or even tighter, I think at least about 35% of Labour voters will now vote Leave which means Remain need 40%+ of Tories to vote In to have a chance with UKIP voters overwhelmingly pro Leave and a significant number of SNP voters voting Leave too (LDs and Greens will be heavily for Remain). If I were Remain I would be heavily targeting Times reading upper middle class Tories in the more prosperous parts of London and the South East
Yet, they are not. They are focusing on London/NI/Scotland. Leave are still pushing hard in Surrey and parts of Hampshire.
Investors fled to safe havens yesterday, rattled by global growth worries and fears that Britain could vote to leave the European Union. More than £39 billion was removed from London-listed share prices while demand for gilts and other sovereign bonds pushed yields down to record lows. The pound also fell.
if they believe the legislation is counter to their national interests they will initially refuse to implement it (as they have done with both railways and postal directives) and can as a last resort veto it entirely.
Norway also vetoed EU oil regulation on the ground it fell outside the terms of the EEA agreement.
Incidentally, that Spiegel article isn't as nice as the cover makes it appear:
"if Britain is clever, it will realise that it is not a world power on its own" "If it votes to leave because a disproportionately high number of older and less well-educated British want it so passionately" "hopefully, it will be the other way round: Should the British vote against Brexit, perhaps by 55% or 60% rather than 50.1%, then that would be a mandate. Then the British should stop doing the things that have irritated the rest of Europe for years: special requests, self-pity and wretched haggling over every last detail."
Maybe it loses something in translation.
I wonder if "Fuck off, Spiegel, we're voting Leave" loses something in translation?
Most of the polls are showing slightly more voters saying they will vote in the EU referendum than the next general election, so I am going to put turnout at close to 70%. I still think Remain will win but I cannot see it being by a bigger margin than 52% 48% or even tighter, I think at least about 35% of Labour voters will now vote Leave which means Remain need 40%+ of Tories to vote In to have a chance with UKIP voters overwhelmingly pro Leave and a significant number of SNP voters voting Leave too (LDs and Greens will be heavily for Remain). If I were Remain I would be heavily targeting Times reading upper middle class Tories in the more prosperous parts of London and the South East
Yet, they are not. They are focusing on London/NI/Scotland. Leave are still pushing hard in Surrey and parts of Hampshire.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man.
Ok, I understand:
But when did this anecdote occur? Call me simple but somehow it is not clear.....
Last night.
I have seen Remain campaigners in West Kent which is the more prosperous part of the county, they need to expand that elsewhere in the Home Counties. The Medway Towns will be strongly for Leave as will areas like Portsmouth and most of the villages, Remain need to target prosperous commuter towns like Sevenoaks, Horsham, Reading and Guildford as well the graduate filled cities of Brighton and Oxford
Remain are street stalling in Guildford, Reading and Petersfield. I know that much.
According to the websites, Remain are continuing to "out-event" Leave nationwide. But I don't know how much Leave is doing that's off the radar.
Leave may be doing more leafleting, Remain more events we shall see. Yes, the key 'marginals' in this referendum as it were will be the likes of Guildford and Petersfield and Reading that is where this referendum will be decided, for example I would expect Guildford to be far tighter than Basildon or Nuneaton which will vote strongly for Leave. Chester in the northwest is also likely to be a key swing area, Blackpool will be strongly for Leave, Manchester for Remain etc
I think Chester will go Leave.
If I had to take a punt, I think more middle-class/affluent Tories than expected may go for Remain, but more Labour voters for Leave.
So I still expect it to be close.
Chester may go for Leave but it will not be by much. I would agree on your punt too, I think about 45% of Tories will go for Remain, about 35% of Labour voters for Leave in the end
Wouldn't it simply be easier to have EFTA/EEA as the explicit destination?
If, as is increasingly likely, we vote for Leave, I would say EEA is the most likely outcome.
If you follow the "negotiations" between EU and Switzerland you can get a good clue of how our negotiations are likely to turn out. So we trigger Article 50 and go to some Eurocrat stooge - typically Juncker - and say, "We like the idea of a single market, but no freedom of movement requirement and we want to have a veto over other aspects we dislike. Please put that to the EC Council". Juncker will then say, "Won't fly. Happy to put your proposals to the Council when you have changed your mind. You can talk to me anytime you like." Then we go, "But the clock is ticking. We may end up with nothing at all.". Juncker: "Sure. Let me know when you have changed your mind."
Given that, we can either hold off calling Article 50 indefinitely, which will keep us in a state of limbo. Or we can just accept what we get through Article 50, which likely won't be much at all. "Fog in the Channel. Continent cut off." probably isn't the end goal serious people are looking for.
Which brings us to the EEA. It has the great advantage of being off the shelf and pre-negotiated. Ostensibly membership is in the control of EFTA, not the EU and it gives us the free market. As I say, I think that is what we will end up with.
Unfortunately, I don't think the EEA will work for Britain because it retains the main things that people object to about the EU, while removing many of the foundations that keep the EU operating after a fashion. It's a package deal where we are committed not just to what's in it now but also what we will be added later. It retains the requirement to freedom of movement. And we are still subject to remote decision making out of Brussels.
Even the claimed advantage of not being part of EU instititions is actually a disadvantage. Being told what to do by EU institutions you are not a member of is worse again. That's where the EEA will break down. Right now we are reluctant members of the EU but there is a coherence to it. If as an EEA member we think we are not bound any more and we can do what we like, we will stress that relationship past breaking point.
My point is, whatever your views are on the goodness of the EU, it is better on the practicalities than the two plausible Leave options. It is going to be a huge mess.
We put a position to the EU then go and negotiate other trade deals.
They will work out that they need access to our market though by the time they may have lost market share.
Fog in Channel option? It's a reasonable approach, but not one that will deliver results. Any results. Not just bad ones. As I say it is worth looking at the EU-Swiss negotiations. The former are quite content to stall for decades. The first time round, the Swiss blinked. We will see if they do the same next year following the referendum committing to the end of freedom of movement.
Switzerland needs the EU. We don't. It would be nice to have, but it's not the end of the world
We need stability and prosperity on our doorstep. The EU furthers that aim. British participation makes the EU stronger. Ergo Britain needs to stay in the EU.
Investors fled to safe havens yesterday, rattled by global growth worries and fears that Britain could vote to leave the European Union. More than £39 billion was removed from London-listed share prices while demand for gilts and other sovereign bonds pushed yields down to record lows. The pound also fell.
The DAX of Germany dropped 2.52 percent and the CAC 40 of France fell 2.24 percent. The FTSE 100 of the U.K. declined 1.86 percent and the SMI of Switzerland finished lower by 1.90 percent.
if they believe the legislation is counter to their national interests they will initially refuse to implement it (as they have done with both railways and postal directives) and can as a last resort veto it entirely.
"Then the British should stop doing the things that have irritated the rest of Europe for years: special requests, self-pity and wretched haggling over every last detail."
And there we have it.
There is *no* prospect of further reform if we stay.
Investors fled to safe havens yesterday, rattled by global growth worries and fears that Britain could vote to leave the European Union. More than £39 billion was removed from London-listed share prices while demand for gilts and other sovereign bonds pushed yields down to record lows. The pound also fell.
Well Cameron should stop frightening everyone with his scaremongering.
Yes. It's all down to one man who can move markets with his breath. Nothing to do with a country deciding to leave the largest trading bloc on the world because it wishes to reduce the number of immigrants and is willing to drive the economy off the cliff in order to do so.
The Prime Minister of the country has been suggesting WW3 if we Leave, of course it will affect some nervy investors.
Anyway, we will still trade with Europe after we leave, so no need to be quite so worried.
In assessing the cost of Brexit we need to think about the elements of revenge and realism. Firstly, revenge. The world is full of countries that dislike us and may well take this opportunity to take it. It looks increasingly likely that we would go through a period of being excluded from the single market coupled with significant foreign disinvestment. This may go as far as the complete transfer of major manufacturing plants to mainland Europe. I find it difficult to see unemployment being much below 3 million in 5 years time. The argument that investment from British entrepreneurs will compensate for this is difficult to believe. This is where realism creeps in. A consequence, inevitable I'm afraid, of Brexit is that the international credit rating agencies will reduce our credit rating. This will make borrowing more expensive for both the government, entrepreneurs and mortgagees. There is no question that, as foreign citizens move out a housing crisis will occur, leaving millions on negative equity. Those who respond that this will mean young people will be easily able to get on the housing ladder fail, firstly, to realise that increasing interest rates will mean that homes will still be out of their reach and secondly that cash rich pensioners will return to buy to let in droves and drive them out again. I'm deeply concerned that those advocating Brexit seem to have thought none of these things through and have no answers to the problems I believe we will experience.
following a vote to leave Moody's might assign a negative outlook to the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating
S&P said they probably would downgrade a notch, but they currently rate the UK AAA so this would only bring them in line with Moody's.
But, of course, being downgraded to AA+ would be catastrophic. Our credit rating would only be as good as the United States (although we'd still be better than France)
We need stability and prosperity on our doorstep. The EU furthers that aim.
In Germany, perhaps. In Greece, Spain, Ukraine, etc., distinctly less so. It all depends on how parochial your view of our 'doorstep' is, though one would hardly argue that the Celtic Tiger was both stable and prosperous.
"Then the British should stop doing the things that have irritated the rest of Europe for years: special requests, self-pity and wretched haggling over every last detail."
And there we have it.
There is *no* prospect of further reform if we stay.
Remember when Cameron's renegotiation was going to keep us in the EU? The renegotiation, incidentally, that won't be legislated for until after we vote to remain.
Investors fled to safe havens yesterday, rattled by global growth worries and fears that Britain could vote to leave the European Union. More than £39 billion was removed from London-listed share prices while demand for gilts and other sovereign bonds pushed yields down to record lows. The pound also fell.
The DAX of Germany dropped 2.52 percent and the CAC 40 of France fell 2.24 percent. The FTSE 100 of the U.K. declined 1.86 percent and the SMI of Switzerland finished lower by 1.90 percent.
So the UK SE outperformed its European rivals.
Shh, Scott won't listen to evidence just parrot whatever doom mongering he can find. Don't let facts interfere with his ravings.
Like the fact the pound is up on where it was in recent years despite the repeated cries of "look the pound is going down" it is still up.
Maybe Scott should take the name Chicken Licken for the next 12 days.
Wouldn't it simply be easier to have EFTA/EEA as the explicit destination?
If, as is increasingly likely, we vote for Leave, I would say EEA is the most likely outcome.
If you follow the "negotiations" between EU and Switzerland you can get a good clue of how our negotiations are likely to turn out. So we trigger Article 50 and go to some Eurocrat stooge - typically Juncker - and say, "We like the idea of a single market, but no freedom of movement requirement and we want to have a veto over other aspects we dislike. Please put that to the EC Council". Juncker will then say, "Won't fly. Happy to put your proposals to the Council when you have changed your mind. You can talk to me anytime you like." Then we go, "But the clock is ticking. We may end up with nothing at all.". Juncker: "Sure. Let me know when you have changed your mind."
Given that, we can either hold off calling Article 50 indefinitely, which will keep us in a state of limbo. Or we can just accept what we get through Article 50, which likely won't be much at all. "Fog in the Channel. Continent cut off." probably isn't the end goal serious people are looking for.
Which brings us to the EEA. It has the great advantage of being off the shelf and pre-negotiated. Ostensibly membership is in the control of EFTA, not the EU and it gives us the free market. As I say, I think that is what we will end up with.
Unfortunately, I don't think the EEA will work for Britain because it retains the main things that people object to about the EU, while removing many of the foundations that keep the EU operating after a fashion. It's a package deal where we are committed not just to what's in it now but also what we will be added later. It retains the requirement to freedom of movement. And we are still subject to remote decision making out of Brussels.
Even the claimed advantage of not being part of EU instititions is actually a disadvantage. Being told what to do by EU institutions you are not a member of is worse again. That's where the EEA will break down. Right now we are reluctant members of the EU but there is a coherence to it. If as an EEA member we think we are not bound any more and we can do what we like, we will stress that relationship past breaking point.
My point is, whatever your views are on the goodness of the EU, it is better on the practicalities than the two plausible Leave options. It is going to be a huge mess.
We put a position to the EU then go and negotiate other trade deals.
They will work out that they need access to our market though by the time they may have lost market share.
Fog in Channel option? It's a reasonable approach, but not one that will deliver results. Any results. Not just bad ones. As I say it is worth looking at the EU-Swiss negotiations. The former are quite content to stall for decades. The first time round, the Swiss blinked. We will see if they do the same next year following the referendum committing to the end of freedom of movement.
Switzerland needs the EU. We don't. It would be nice to have, but it's not the end of the world
We need stability and prosperity on our doorstep. The EU furthers that aim. British participation makes the EU stronger. Ergo Britain needs to stay in the EU.
If the EU furthers that aim why is the EU amongst the worst performing regions of the entire world for a decade now?
Wouldn't it simply be easier to have EFTA/EEA as the explicit destination?
If, as is increasingly likely, we vote for Leave, I would say EEA is the most likely outcome.
If you follow the "negotiations" between EU and Switzerland you can get a good clue of how our negotiations are likely to turn out. So we trigger Article 50 and go to some Eurocrat stooge - typically Juncker - and say, "We like the idea of a single market, but no freedom of movement requirement and we want to have a veto over other aspects we dislike. Please put that to the EC Council". Juncker will then say, "Won't fly. Happy to put your proposals to the Council when you have changed your mind. You can talk to me anytime you like." Then we go, "But the clock is ticking. We may end up with nothing at all.". Juncker: "Sure. Let me know when you have changed your mind."
Given that, we can either hold off calling Article 50 indefinitely, which will keep us in a state of limbo. Or we can just accept what we get through Article 50, which likely won't be much at all. "Fog in the Channel. Continent cut off." probably isn't the end goal serious people are looking for.
Which brings us to the EEA. It has the great advantage of being off the shelf and pre-negotiated. Ostensibly membership is in the control of EFTA, not the EU and it gives us the free market. As I say, I think that is what we will end up with.
Unfortunately, I don't think the EEA will work for Britain because it retains the main things that people object to about the EU, while removing many of the foundations that keep the EU operating after a fashion. It's a package deal where we are committed not just to what's in it now but also what we will be added later. It retains the requirement to freedom of movement. And we are still subject to remote decision making out of Brussels.
Even the claimed advantage of not being part of EU instititions is actually a disadvantage. Being told what to do by EU institutions you are not a member of is worse again. That's where the EEA will break down. Right now we are reluctant members of the EU but there is a coherence to it. If as an EEA member we think we are not bound any more and we can do what we like, we will stress that relationship past breaking point.
My point is, whatever your views are on the goodness of the EU, it is better on the practicalities than the two plausible Leave options. It is going to be a huge mess.
We put a position to the EU then go and negotiate other trade deals.
They will work out that they need access to our market though by the time they may have lost market share.
Fog in Channel option? It's a reasonable approach, but not one that will deliver results. Any results. Not just bad ones. As I say it is worth looking at the EU-Swiss negotiations. The former are quite content to stall for decades. The first time round, the Swiss blinked. We will see if they do the same next year following the referendum committing to the end of freedom of movement.
Switzerland needs the EU. We don't. It would be nice to have, but it's not the end of the world
We need stability and prosperity on our doorstep. The EU furthers that aim. British participation makes the EU stronger. Ergo Britain needs to stay in the EU.
It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
Guido According to ORB, 44% of people who voted for Labour at last year’s general election now back @labourleave #Lexit
Pardon my ignorance - what group is running LabourLeave? With a support base like that, it might have a future as an alternative to a too-left-wing-for-many Labour party.
Many thanks for those links. I confess I hadn't even thought to google them.
May I offer 'mumps' as my excuse?
Ouch, nasty. I had adult mumps and it knocked me for six. Hope you get well soon. I broke my referendum exile due to injuring my leg (crutches, yay!) and contracting urticaria. I can hobble around with the dogs and that's about it.
Most of the polls are showing slightly more voters saying they will vote in the EU referendum than the next general election, so I am going to put turnout at close to 70%. I still think Remain will win but I cannot see it being by a bigger margin than 52% 48% or even tighter, I think at least about 35% of Labour voters will now vote Leave which means Remain need 40%+ of Tories to vote In to have a chance with UKIP voters overwhelmingly pro Leave and a significant number of SNP voters voting Leave too (LDs and Greens will be heavily for Remain). If I were Remain I would be heavily targeting Times reading upper middle class Tories in the more prosperous parts of London and the South East
Yet, they are not. They are focusing on London/NI/Scotland. Leave are still pushing hard in Surrey and parts of Hampshire.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man.
Ok, I understand:
But when did this anecdote occur? Call me simple but somehow it is not clear.....
Last night.
I have seen Remain campaigners in West Kent which is the more prosperous part of the county, they need to expand that elsewhere in the Home Counties. The Medway Towns will be strongly for Leave as will areas like Portsmouth and most of the villages, Remain need to target prosperous commuter towns like Sevenoaks, Horsham, Reading and Guildford as well the graduate filled cities of Brighton and Oxford
Remain are street stalling in Guildford, Reading and Petersfield. I know that much.
According to the websites, Remain are continuing to "out-event" Leave nationwide. But I don't know how much Leave is doing that's off the radar.
Leave may be doing more leafleting, Remain more events we shall see. Yes, the key 'marginals' in this referendum as it were will be the likes of Guildford and Petersfield and Reading that is where this referendum will be decided, for example I would expect Guildford to be far tighter than Basildon or Nuneaton which will vote strongly for Leave. Chester in the northwest is also likely to be a key swing area, Blackpool will be strongly for Leave, Manchester for Remain etc
I think Chester will go Leave.
If I had to take a punt, I think more middle-class/affluent Tories than expected may go for Remain, but more Labour voters for Leave.
So I still expect it to be close.
Chester may go for Leave but it will not be by much. I would agree on your punt too, I think about 45% of Tories will go for Remain, about 35% of Labour voters for Leave in the end
I think Chester will be quite solid for Leave. I was up there a month ago and Leave were strong.
The turnout will probably be higher than the 66% in the 2015 general election. Many older people will make more effort to vote on 23 June than in one of those election things where you can vote for a politician or party (or against one).
True that turnout in the 1975 referendum was lower than in the GEs the previous year, but it was still at 65%, and since then immigration has soared. For many, the issue is "national independence" versus "stop the loonies".
That's reminiscent of the Scottish indyref. Figures for turnout:
When I read referendum turnout spiel like this from YouGov, I recall the soubriquet "Anything for you, guv". That graph on "EU Referendum Support by Turnout" is a classic.
Remain may plant some stories about how some intending Leave supporters are getting less interested in the issue and will stay at home, but I doubt it will get them anywhere. It would be dangerous, anyway, because they'd risk encouraging their own supporters to stay at home. They have fought a crap campaign so far. The "expert" stuff has been ridiculous, even when put together with David Cameron standing with his legs apart, trying to imitate an "oik". Admittedly, it's difficult to be demotic or stir up enthusiasm in favour of the EU. The next fortnight will be exciting, I think, as Remain get ever more desperate.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man. EU ref came up. He was very dismissive of my warnings about 'covering himself' on Leave, and has just gone in even deeper with another £20k. He's convinced it'll be 56:44 to Remain.
Do you know, this annoys the fuck out of me. To arrive at my present betting position[1] I did the following
* Got Gallup's 1975 polls, "The 1975 referendum" and "Full-hearted consent" from the library via inter-library loans. (The books are great btw) * Checked the prediction errors for the polls for about seven previous referenda on EU and UK (they are shocking btw) * Carefully saved about £250 pcm for about three months (it would have been more but I had some unexpected expenses) * Placed a bet on the London Mayoral in a physical betting shop to overcome fear and create a muscle memory
That's about six months of full-on work. And along comes Mr Dickless Bank Director and throws away £20K on the wrong result because his gut says so
Rich people don't deserve money, they really dont...
[1] £500pcm@5/2 and £250pcm@4/2 on LEAVE. I may have mentioned it.
If it makes you feel any better "Director" is quite a junior role at Deutsche Bank - he's probably a trader in his late 20s who's just trying to impress his friends with his braggardo
I see football fans from across Europe are taking the chance to sample the delights of the south of France at this time of year & fully embracing the cafe culture!!!!!
EU will be praying that England votes to leave after another 2 weeks of riots
England fans are no different from Hibernian supported. Apart from the former can pay for themselves.
Can go nowhere without disgracing the country and the gutter press have the temerity to call them British
At least we're spared the cringeworthy presence of the goody-goody Tartan Army in their clown costumes and ginger fright wigs.
Alan Clark was a big fan of the performances of both the Waffen SS and English football fans in France.
The turnout will probably be higher than the 66% in the 2015 general election. Many older people will make more effort to vote on 23 June than in one of those election things where you can vote for a politician or party (or against one).
True that turnout in the 1975 referendum was lower than in the GEs the previous year, but it was still at 65%, and since then immigration has soared. For many, the issue is "national independence" versus "stop the loonies".
That's reminiscent of the Scottish indyref. Figures for turnout:
When I read referendum turnout spiel like this from YouGov, I recall the soubriquet "Anything for you, guv". That graph on "EU Referendum Support by Turnout" is a classic.
Remain may plant some stories about how some intending Leave supporters are getting less interested in the issue and will stay at home, but I doubt it will get them anywhere. They have fought a crap campaign so far. The "expert" stuff has been ridiculous, even when put together with David Cameron standing with his legs apart, trying to imitate an "oik". Admittedly, it's difficult to be demotic or stir up enthusiasm in favour of the EU. The next fortnight will be exciting, I think, as Remain get ever more desperate.
Turnout prediction: 69%-72%.
I'm about 80% confident that either next week, or very early next week, we will get a Government vow on a future referendum on Turkish membership, and a statement of intent that there will be a very long transition time for free movement on new EU states joining in future (15-20 years+)
Question will be whether it's too little too late, and believed.
Wouldn't it simply be easier to have EFTA/EEA as the explicit destination?
If, as is increasingly likely, we vote for Leave, I would say EEA is the most likely outcome.
If you follow the "negotiations" between EU and Switzerland you can get a good clue of how our negotiations are likely to turn out. So we trigger Article 50 and go to some Eurocrat stooge - typically Juncker - and say, "We like the idea of a single market, but no freedom of movement requirement and we want to have a veto over other aspects we dislike. Please put that to the EC Council". Juncker will then say, "Won't fly. Happy to put your proposals to the Council when you have changed your mind. You can talk to me anytime you like." Then we go, "But the clock is ticking. We may end up with nothing at all.". Juncker: "Sure. Let me know when you have changed your mind."
Given that, we can either hold off calling Article 50 indefinitely, which will keep us in a state of limbo. Or we can just accept what we get through Article 50, which likely won't be much at all. "Fog in the Channel. Continent cut off." probably isn't the end goal serious people are looking for.
Which brings us to the EEA. It has the great advantage of being off the shelf and pre-negotiated. Ostensibly membership is in the control of EFTA, not the EU and it gives us the free market. As I say, I think that is what we will end up with.
Unfortunately, I don't think the EEA will work for Britain because it retains the main things that people object to about the EU, while removing many of the foundations that keep the EU operating after a fashion. It's a package deal where we are committed not just to what's in it now but also what we will be added later. It retains the requirement to freedom of movement. And we are still subject to remote decision making out of Brussels.
Even the claimed advantage of not being part of EU instititions is actually a disadvantage. Being told what to do by EU institutions you are not a member of is worse again. That's where the EEA will break down. Right now we are reluctant members of the EU but there is a coherence to it. If as an EEA member we think we are not bound any more and we can do what we like, we will stress that relationship past breaking point.
My point is, whatever your views are on the goodness of the EU, it is better on the practicalities than the two plausible Leave options. It is going to be a huge mess.
We put a position to the EU then go and negotiate other trade deals.
They will work out that they need access to our market though by the time they may have lost market share.
Fog in Channel option? It's a reasonable approach, but not one that will deliver results. Any results. Not just bad ones. As I say it is worth looking at the EU-Swiss negotiations. The former are quite content to stall for decades. The first time round, the Swiss blinked. We will see if they do the same next year following the referendum committing to the end of freedom of movement.
Switzerland needs the EU. We don't. It would be nice to have, but it's not the end of the world
We need stability and prosperity on our doorstep. The EU furthers that aim. British participation makes the EU stronger. Ergo Britain needs to stay in the EU.
British participaton makes the EU stronger, and that is not in the interest of Europeans. That is the problem.
I really don't like Miliband's suit - it is almost as though the elbow point doesn't correspond to his actual elbow. And he is completely over dressed for the occasion.
We need stability and prosperity on our doorstep. The EU furthers that aim.
In Germany, perhaps. In Greece, Spain, Ukraine, etc., distinctly less so. It all depends on how parochial your view of our 'doorstep' is, though one would hardly argue that the Celtic Tiger was both stable and prosperous.
It's a stretch, based on Putin propaganda, to blame the EU for events in Ukraine.
More broadly, the last few years have shown what a powerful anchor the EU is for providing the context for political stability even in the most trying circumstances in places like Greece. Sometimes when a situation is tough, people don't like to imagine how it could be so much worse.
Most of the polls are showing slightly more voters saying they will vote in the EU referendum than the next general election, so I am going to put turnout at close to 70%. I still think Remain will win but I cannot see it being by a bigger margin than 52% 48% or even tighter, I think at least about 35% of Labour voters will now vote Leave which means Remain need 40%+ of Tories to vote In to have a chance with UKIP voters overwhelmingly pro Leave and a significant number of SNP voters voting Leave too (LDs and Greens will be heavily for Remain). If I were Remain I would be heavily targeting Times reading upper middle class Tories in the more prosperous parts of London and the South East
Yet, they are not. They are focusing on London/NI/Scotland. Leave are still pushing hard in Surrey and parts of Hampshire.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man.
Ok, I understand:
But when did this anecdote occur? Call me simple but somehow it is not clear.....
Last night.
I have seen Remain campaigners in West Kent which is the more prosperous part of the county, they need to expand that elsewhere in the Home Counties. The Medway Towns will be strongly for Leave as will areas like Portsmouth and most of the villages, Remain need to target prosperous commuter towns like Sevenoaks, Horsham, Reading and Guildford as well the graduate filled cities of Brighton and Oxford
Remain are street stalling in Guildford, Reading and Petersfield. I know that much.
According to the websites, Remain are continuing to "out-event" Leave nationwide. But I don't know how much Leave is doing that's off the radar.
Leave may be doing more leafleting, Remain more events we shall see. Yes, the key 'marginals' in this referendum as it were will be the likes of Guildford and Petersfield and Reading that is where this referendum will be decided, for example I would expect Guildford to be far tighter than Basildon or Nuneaton which will vote strongly for Leave. Chester in the northwest is also likely to be a key swing area, Blackpool will be strongly for Leave, Manchester for Remain etc
I think Chester will go Leave.
If I had to take a punt, I think more middle-class/affluent Tories than expected may go for Remain, but more Labour voters for Leave.
So I still expect it to be close.
Chester may go for Leave but it will not be by much. I would agree on your punt too, I think about 45% of Tories will go for Remain, about 35% of Labour voters for Leave in the end
I think Chester will be quite solid for Leave. I was up there a month ago and Leave were strong.
We'll see what happens on the day.
Maybe but at the last election UKIP got 8% in Chester, slightly less than nationally. It looks like a key swing area to me
Investors fled to safe havens yesterday, rattled by global growth worries and fears that Britain could vote to leave the European Union. More than £39 billion was removed from London-listed share prices while demand for gilts and other sovereign bonds pushed yields down to record lows. The pound also fell.
The DAX of Germany dropped 2.52 percent and the CAC 40 of France fell 2.24 percent. The FTSE 100 of the U.K. declined 1.86 percent and the SMI of Switzerland finished lower by 1.90 percent.
So the UK SE outperformed its European rivals.
Falling off a cliff slower than the other lemmings is not outperformance
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man. EU ref came up. He was very dismissive of my warnings about 'covering himself' on Leave, and has just gone in even deeper with another £20k. He's convinced it'll be 56:44 to Remain.
Do you know, this annoys the fuck out of me. To arrive at my present betting position[1] I did the following
* Got Gallup's 1975 polls, "The 1975 referendum" and "Full-hearted consent" from the library via inter-library loans. (The books are great btw) * Checked the prediction errors for the polls for about seven previous referenda on EU and UK (they are shocking btw) * Carefully saved about £250 pcm for about three months (it would have been more but I had some unexpected expenses) * Placed a bet on the London Mayoral in a physical betting shop to overcome fear and create a muscle memory
That's about six months of full-on work. And along comes Mr Dickless Bank Director and throws away £20K on the wrong result because his gut says so
Rich people don't deserve money, they really dont...
[1] £500pcm@5/2 and £250pcm@4/2 on LEAVE. I may have mentioned it.
If it makes you feel any better "Director" is quite a junior role at Deutsche Bank - he's probably a trader in his late 20s who's just trying to impress his friends with his braggardo
He's in his mid-30s, married with two kids. He is doing quite well.
He did call the IndyRef spot on. But not the GE, and I think he's quite emotionally invested in this one.
We need stability and prosperity on our doorstep. The EU furthers that aim.
In Germany, perhaps. In Greece, Spain, Ukraine, etc., distinctly less so. It all depends on how parochial your view of our 'doorstep' is, though one would hardly argue that the Celtic Tiger was both stable and prosperous.
It's a stretch, based on Putin propaganda, to blame the EU for events in Ukraine.
More broadly, the last few years have shown what a powerful anchor the EU is for providing the context for political stability even in the most trying circumstances in places like Greece. Sometimes when a situation is tough, people don't like to imagine how it could be so much worse.
Eurozone membership made the Greek crisis worse, not better.
We need stability and prosperity on our doorstep. The EU furthers that aim.
In Germany, perhaps. In Greece, Spain, Ukraine, etc., distinctly less so. It all depends on how parochial your view of our 'doorstep' is, though one would hardly argue that the Celtic Tiger was both stable and prosperous.
It's a stretch, based on Putin propaganda, to blame the EU for events in Ukraine.
More broadly, the last few years have shown what a powerful anchor the EU is for providing the context for political stability even in the most trying circumstances in places like Greece. Sometimes when a situation is tough, people don't like to imagine how it could be so much worse.
Eurozone membership made the Greek crisis worse, not better.
EU membership made the Greek political crisis better, not worse.
reminds me of a documentary in Scotland before GE2015 when people were telling the local Labour MP of many years standing that they would vote for him because they were to polite to tell him they were all voting SNP
More broadly, the last few years have shown what a powerful anchor the EU is for providing the context for political stability even in the most trying circumstances in places like Greece. Sometimes when a situation is tough, people don't like to imagine how it could be so much worse.
Without the EU, the Greeks would have devalued and gone back to normal in a few years (as Iceland did, for instance). That's if there had been a crisis at all, of course, because the debt problems resulted from membership of the Euro. What we have instead is the long drawn-out agony of trying to force fundamentally incompatible economies into a single currency.
The only reason there is nominal political stability is because the EU has been installing technocratic governments across Southern Europe. Political stability in this case follows from building a firewall between the voters and the executive, which the overwhelming majority would consider a greater evil than instability. There's a reason Europe moved on from absolutism, and it wasn't for stability.
To be honest, Douglas Murray said it better than I could.
Wouldn't it simply be easier to have EFTA/EEA as the explicit destination?
If, as is increasingly likely, we vote for Leave, I would say EEA is the most likely outcome.
If you follow the "negotiations" between EU and Switzerland you can get a good clue of how our negotiations are likely to turn out. So we trigger Article 50 and go to some Eurocrat stooge - typically Juncker - and say, "We like the idea of a single market, but no freedom of movement requirement and we want to have a veto over other aspects we dislike. Please put that to the EC Council". Juncker will then say, "Won't fly. Happy to put your proposals to the Council when you have changed your mind. You can talk to me anytime you like." Then we go, "But the clock is ticking. We may end up with nothing at all.". Juncker: "Sure. Let me know when you have changed your mind."
Given that, we can either hold off calling Article 50 indefinitely, which will keep us in a state of limbo. Or we can just accept what we get through Article 50, which likely won't be much at all. "Fog in the Channel. Continent cut off." probably isn't the end goal serious people are looking for.
Which brings us to the EEA. It has the great advantage of being off the shelf and pre-negotiated. Ostensibly membership is in the control of EFTA, not the EU and it gives us the free market. As I say, I think that is what we will end up with.
Unfortunately, I don't think the EEA will work for Britain because it retains the main things that people object to about the EU, while removing many of the foundations that keep the EU operating after a fashion. It's a package deal where we are committed not just to what's in it now but also what we will be added later. It retains the requirement to freedom of movement. And we are still subject to remote decision making out of Brussels.
Even the claimed advantage of not being part of EU instititions is actually a disadvantage. Being told what to do by EU institutions you are not a member of is worse again. That's where the EEA will break down. Right now we are reluctant members of the EU but there is a coherence to it. If as an EEA member we think we are not bound any more and we can do what we like, we will stress that relationship past breaking point.
My point is, whatever your views are on the goodness of the EU, it is better on the practicalities than the two plausible Leave options. It is going to be a huge mess.
We put a position to the EU then go and negotiate other trade deals.
They will work out that they need access to our market though by the time they may have lost market share.
Fog in Channel option? It's a reasonable approach, but not one that will deliver results. Any results. Not just bad ones. As I say it is worth looking at the EU-Swiss negotiations. The former are quite content to stall for decades. The first time round, the Swiss blinked. We will see if they do the same next year following the referendum committing to the end of freedom of movement.
Switzerland needs the EU. We don't. It would be nice to have, but it's not the end of the world
We need stability and prosperity on our doorstep. The EU furthers that aim. British participation makes the EU stronger. Ergo Britain needs to stay in the EU.
It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
Stability is only desirable if you're stably good. Instability is better than being stably bad. It is called seeking opportunities and creativity.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man. EU ref came up. He was very dismissive of my warnings about 'covering himself' on Leave, and has just gone in even deeper with another £20k. He's convinced it'll be 56:44 to Remain.
Do you know, this annoys the fuck out of me. To arrive at my present betting position[1] I did the following
* Got Gallup's 1975 polls, "The 1975 referendum" and "Full-hearted consent" from the library via inter-library loans. (The books are great btw) * Checked the prediction errors for the polls for about seven previous referenda on EU and UK (they are shocking btw) * Carefully saved about £250 pcm for about three months (it would have been more but I had some unexpected expenses) * Placed a bet on the London Mayoral in a physical betting shop to overcome fear and create a muscle memory
That's about six months of full-on work. And along comes Mr Dickless Bank Director and throws away £20K on the wrong result because his gut says so
Rich people don't deserve money, they really dont...
[1] £500pcm@5/2 and £250pcm@4/2 on LEAVE. I may have mentioned it.
If it makes you feel any better "Director" is quite a junior role at Deutsche Bank - he's probably a trader in his late 20s who's just trying to impress his friends with his braggardo
Investors fled to safe havens yesterday, rattled by global growth worries and fears that Britain could vote to leave the European Union. More than £39 billion was removed from London-listed share prices while demand for gilts and other sovereign bonds pushed yields down to record lows. The pound also fell.
The DAX of Germany dropped 2.52 percent and the CAC 40 of France fell 2.24 percent. The FTSE 100 of the U.K. declined 1.86 percent and the SMI of Switzerland finished lower by 1.90 percent.
So the UK SE outperformed its European rivals.
Falling off a cliff slower than the other lemmings is not outperformance
Yes it is. The world economy on the stock market ebbs and flows with good days and bad days that tend to see stocks move in a similar unison but with variances.
If you go up more on good days and down less on bad ones then that is a great outperformance.
It is delivering neither stability nor prosperity.
And yet Leave are advocating leaving the EU and EEA and recasting all relationships unilaterally: the option that will deliver the least stability and prosperity.
Stability is only desirable if you're stably good. Instability is better than being stably bad. It is called seeking opportunities and creativity.
Investors fled to safe havens yesterday, rattled by global growth worries and fears that Britain could vote to leave the European Union. More than £39 billion was removed from London-listed share prices while demand for gilts and other sovereign bonds pushed yields down to record lows. The pound also fell.
Well Cameron should stop frightening everyone with his scaremongering.
Yes. It's all down to one man who can move markets with his breath. Nothing to do with a country deciding to leave the largest trading bloc on the world because it wishes to reduce the number of immigrants and is willing to drive the economy off the cliff in order to do so.
Guido has tweeted tbat Cameron is going to stand up on his hind legs side by side with Irish PM Enda Kenny and ask Irish voters in the UK to vote remain.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man. EU ref came up. He was very dismissive of my warnings about 'covering himself' on Leave, and has just gone in even deeper with another £20k. He's convinced it'll be 56:44 to Remain.
Do you know, this annoys the fuck out of me. To arrive at my present betting position[1] I did the following
* Got Gallup's 1975 polls, "The 1975 referendum" and "Full-hearted consent" from the library via inter-library loans. (The books are great btw) * Checked the prediction errors for the polls for about seven previous referenda on EU and UK (they are shocking btw) * Carefully saved about £250 pcm for about three months (it would have been more but I had some unexpected expenses) * Placed a bet on the London Mayoral in a physical betting shop to overcome fear and create a muscle memory
That's about six months of full-on work. And along comes Mr Dickless Bank Director and throws away £20K on the wrong result because his gut says so
Rich people don't deserve money, they really dont...
[1] £500pcm@5/2 and £250pcm@4/2 on LEAVE. I may have mentioned it.
If it makes you feel any better "Director" is quite a junior role at Deutsche Bank - he's probably a trader in his late 20s who's just trying to impress his friends with his braggardo
He's in his mid-30s, married with two kids. He is doing quite well.
He did call the IndyRef spot on. But not the GE, and I think he's quite emotionally invested in this one.
Spoke to my Deutsche Bank director friend last night at a wedding in Stoke Newington last night where he was best man. EU ref came up. He was very dismissive of my warnings about 'covering himself' on Leave, and has just gone in even deeper with another £20k. He's convinced it'll be 56:44 to Remain.
Do you know, this annoys the fuck out of me. To arrive at my present betting position[1] I did the following
* Got Gallup's 1975 polls, "The 1975 referendum" and "Full-hearted consent" from the library via inter-library loans. (The books are great btw) * Checked the prediction errors for the polls for about seven previous referenda on EU and UK (they are shocking btw) * Carefully saved about £250 pcm for about three months (it would have been more but I had some unexpected expenses) * Placed a bet on the London Mayoral in a physical betting shop to overcome fear and create a muscle memory
That's about six months of full-on work. And along comes Mr Dickless Bank Director and throws away £20K on the wrong result because his gut says so
Rich people don't deserve money, they really dont...
[1] £500pcm@5/2 and £250pcm@4/2 on LEAVE. I may have mentioned it.
If it makes you feel any better "Director" is quite a junior role at Deutsche Bank - he's probably a trader in his late 20s who's just trying to impress his friends with his braggardo
He's in his mid-30s, married with two kids. He is doing quite well.
He did call the IndyRef spot on. But not the GE, and I think he's quite emotionally invested in this one.
Comments
I don't know what I'm going to do about my house in France though....
Clearly another example of the 'boring dull competence' of the establishment that Alastair Meeks warns us we may be in danger of sweeping away. Heaven forbid.
It makes me heartily ashamed of my country.
And welcome to the Dark Side, it's lovely here.
According to the websites, Remain are continuing to "out-event" Leave nationwide. But I don't know how much Leave is doing that's off the radar.
YouGov Remain 43 Leave 42
And don't worry about the property in France. You won't be able to get to it anyway.
We must strike a blow for democracy.
This isn't going to be a problem.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFKT8bXmxXI
On the Queen's Official Birthday you are beaten. Turnball; we are laughing at you!
Oops! Time-delay: Some bloody aussie has spoilt the party!
Never trust Al-Beeb!
Ditto EU control and restraint over parliament policies wnd spending.
When we are out and parliament is again sovereign and civil servants can no longer tell ministers that the EU rules do not allow this, tben the quality of election candidates will soon enough rise
*innocent face*
Investors fled to safe havens yesterday, rattled by global growth worries and fears that Britain could vote to leave the European Union. More than £39 billion was removed from London-listed share prices while demand for gilts and other sovereign bonds pushed yields down to record lows. The pound also fell.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/brexit-fears-cost-39bn-as-investors-seek-safety-hh7cnpgr2
He's a great platform speaker, his content - not so much.
1) The enpoverishment of others does not exalt me. You'd think it'd be the exact opposite, but it's not. I've been on the winning and losing sides enough times now to know that things hurt, and I don't actually like seeing the suffering of others
2) PJ O'Rourke once wrote of the whiffle-ball life, where people live in a comfortable, insulated environment where they are always insulated from the bad effects of their actions. Nothing that Mr Deutsche Bank director will ever do will hurt him nor remove him from the lifestyle he leads, no matter how badly or stupidly he behaves. It violates my sense of propriety.
Well Cameron should stop frightening everyone with his scaremongering.
Incidentally, that Spiegel article isn't as nice as the cover makes it appear:
"if Britain is clever, it will realise that it is not a world power on its own"
"If it votes to leave because a disproportionately high number of older and less well-educated British want it so passionately"
"hopefully, it will be the other way round: Should the British vote against Brexit, perhaps by 55% or 60% rather than 50.1%, then that would be a mandate. Then the British should stop doing the things that have irritated the rest of Europe for years: special requests, self-pity and wretched haggling over every last detail."
Maybe it loses something in translation.
Nigel Farage has been going from town hall to television studio, hawking the false idea that Brexit will make our immigration problem go away. And tonight, at long last, he was rumbled.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/tonight-nigel-farage-rumbled-immigration/
Australian Rugby!
Are they trained by Ceylonese cricketers? *
* Seriously: These are all great sports-men. However England is rewakening (so be aware)....
If I had to take a punt, I think more middle-class/affluent Tories than expected may go for Remain, but more Labour voters for Leave.
So I still expect it to be close.
Rather sad:- compared to the crowds at The Mall.
Interesting ...
So the UK SE outperformed its European rivals.
What idiot thougbt an EU referendum a week after this patriotic outpouring was a good idealol
There is *no* prospect of further reform if we stay.
The Prime Minister of the country has been suggesting WW3 if we Leave, of course it will affect some nervy investors.
Anyway, we will still trade with Europe after we leave, so no need to be quite so worried.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Brexit-poses-manageable-credit-challenges-for-UK-and-EU--PR_346048
Not certain, and not the same as a downgrade.
S&P said they probably would downgrade a notch, but they currently rate the UK AAA so this would only bring them in line with Moody's.
But, of course, being downgraded to AA+ would be catastrophic. Our credit rating would only be as good as the United States (although we'd still be better than France)
Like the fact the pound is up on where it was in recent years despite the repeated cries of "look the pound is going down" it is still up.
Maybe Scott should take the name Chicken Licken for the next 12 days.
#remainaredoomed
We'll see what happens on the day.
True that turnout in the 1975 referendum was lower than in the GEs the previous year, but it was still at 65%, and since then immigration has soared. For many, the issue is "national independence" versus "stop the loonies".
That's reminiscent of the Scottish indyref. Figures for turnout:
2011 Scottish GE: 50%
2015 indyref: 85%
2016 Scottish GE: 56%
When I read referendum turnout spiel like this from YouGov, I recall the soubriquet "Anything for you, guv". That graph on "EU Referendum Support by Turnout" is a classic.
Remain may plant some stories about how some intending Leave supporters are getting less interested in the issue and will stay at home, but I doubt it will get them anywhere. It would be dangerous, anyway, because they'd risk encouraging their own supporters to stay at home. They have fought a crap campaign so far. The "expert" stuff has been ridiculous, even when put together with David Cameron standing with his legs apart, trying to imitate an "oik". Admittedly, it's difficult to be demotic or stir up enthusiasm in favour of the EU. The next fortnight will be exciting, I think, as Remain get ever more desperate.
Turnout prediction: 69%-72%.
No similarity implied I'm sure.
Question will be whether it's too little too late, and believed.
More broadly, the last few years have shown what a powerful anchor the EU is for providing the context for political stability even in the most trying circumstances in places like Greece. Sometimes when a situation is tough, people don't like to imagine how it could be so much worse.
He did call the IndyRef spot on. But not the GE, and I think he's quite emotionally invested in this one.
The only reason there is nominal political stability is because the EU has been installing technocratic governments across Southern Europe. Political stability in this case follows from building a firewall between the voters and the executive, which the overwhelming majority would consider a greater evil than instability. There's a reason Europe moved on from absolutism, and it wasn't for stability.
To be honest, Douglas Murray said it better than I could.
If you go up more on good days and down less on bad ones then that is a great outperformance.
#facepalm
https://twitter.com/matthew_elliott/status/741557552740237312
Well that's torn it.