politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Turnout: the EURef big unknown

Great analysis, Mr Herdson

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Estobar said:

Wow we got that opinion poll lead shunted off the top quickly

OGH doing me a favour so that Peter can't snipe the first backfired a bit though....

For the next ten days, I can arrange that you are first on all threads.

For a small fee.

You tempt me, sir!

I definitely think that turnout for this EU Referendum is going to be higher than originally predicted. And if the campaign has not enthused voters, it has certainly reminded many GE voters that this is an important decision for the UK's future economic prosperity and stability.

Was the biggest loser of Thursday Nights ITV EU Referendum Debate Boris Johnson's Leadership ambitions?
STV News Stephen Daisley - All hail Amber Rudd, the new star of the Conservative Party

Catching up on the Farage interview. Thought he did okay, but some very probing questions from Neil.

Looking into that ORB poll...

38% of respondents who DIDN'T VOTE in GE2015 are 10/10 ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN to vote in the referendum. Between 8-10 on the likely-to-vote scale, it's 51%.

That's 51% of the people who didn't show up to the polls last May are telling the pollsters they're going to vote in the referendum.

Page 3;

http://opinion.co.uk/perch/resources/orbindependent-friday-10th-june-final-data-tables.pdf

A note from Anthony Wells. The next Ipsos MORI poll will very likely show a big swing to Leave, as the company will now filter out people who aren't registered to vote, will weight by educational attainment (to avoid over-sampling graduates) and likely weight by turnout.

If all these changes had been applied to their last poll, the lead would probably have been 9-10%, rather than 18%.

Estobar said:

Sean_F said:

A note from Anthony Wells. The next Ipsos MORI poll will very likely show a big swing to Leave, as the company will now filter out people who aren't registered to vote, will weight by educational attainment (to avoid over-sampling graduates) and likely weight by turnout.

If all these changes had been applied to their last poll, the lead would probably have been 9-10%, rather than 18%.

Is that expectation management Sean?

Remain seem really rattled. Amazing. Makes me believe in karma.

I doubt it.

I am very happy with my 7-1 for Leave to win on a sub-65% turnout.

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

And still the turnout is going to be lowest amongst the youngest age group.

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

And still the turnout is going to be lowest amongst the youngest age group.

Yep - the young are their own worst enemies. There's a reason why Osborne has spent the last six years ensuring pensioners are very well looked after. Ironically, that is now about to bite him big time. The triple lock means they are shielded from any Brexit downsides.

Estobar said:

fitalass said:

Was the biggest loser of Thursday Nights ITV EU Referendum Debate Boris Johnson's Leadership ambitions?
STV News Stephen Daisley - All hail Amber Rudd, the new star of the Conservative Party

Not according to most commentators e.g. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/09/leave-won-the-itv-debate-and-boris-johnson-looks-like-a-future-p/

STV? A Scottish subsidiary of a Scottish subsidiary of ITV, right?

The Telegraph "most commentators"?

That's the house rag of the Breqou tax avoiders, right?

But do keep talking among yourselves...

tlg86 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

I'm 29 and live my parents. The prospects of getting on the housing ladder are not good and it's the same for a lot of my friends. Quite frankly, what do we have to lose by voting to leave? It probably won't make much difference, but maybe it's time to kick the hornets nest.

It's a very fair point. The same applies to a lot of unskilled working class voters who have been completely left behind and totally ignored by the party of the Leave establishment and taken for granted by Labour. I guess all I'd say is that those about to takeover the country will do all they can to ensure that the current status quo - including high house prices - remains in place. They need 37% of the vote to do so.

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

If REMAIN's "scare stories" have some truth, their time of being protected from cuts may be over.

They'll be the very last to feel the effects. It'll be the young and the working class first; then those on the cusp of the 40% tax rate.

PlatoSaid said:

Interesting read from Mr Election Data

http://election-data.co.uk/answer-the-hard-questions-show-some-leadership

Morning. That's a very good article, talking about the huge disconnect between Labour voters and the labour leadership (think Lady Nugee and her disgust at white van man).

If these DE groups turn out for Leave it could be key to the referendum result.

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

A note from Anthony Wells. The next Ipsos MORI poll will very likely show a big swing to Leave, as the company will now filter out people who aren't registered to vote, will weight by educational attainment (to avoid over-sampling graduates) and likely weight by turnout.

If all these changes had been applied to their last poll, the lead would probably have been 9-10%, rather than 18%.

Surely that means they've been underestimating Leave's position from the beginning?

In terms of over-sampling graduates, yes.

It's perfectly reasonable to wait for the deadline for registration before filtering out the unregistered, and to weight by turnout only in the last few days of the campaign.

SouthamObserver said:

tlg86 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

I'm 29 and live my parents. The prospects of getting on the housing ladder are not good and it's the same for a lot of my friends. Quite frankly, what do we have to lose by voting to leave? It probably won't make much difference, but maybe it's time to kick the hornets nest.

It's a very fair point. The same applies to a lot of unskilled working class voters who have been completely left behind and totally ignored by the party of the Leave establishment and taken for granted by Labour. I guess all I'd say is that those about to takeover the country will do all they can to ensure that the current status quo - including high house prices - remains in place. They need 37% of the vote to do so.

I think you could have written that article that Plato linked to.

RochdalePioneers said:

It's leave's vote to lose now. All the momentum is with them because (sadly but unsurprisingly) the single issue of the campaign is migration and remain have no answer. So far the campaign has traded increasingly ludicrous claim and counter claim with "facts" that patently aren't.

But a lot of people aren't going with their head, they are going with their gut. And that tells them they are unhappy with the status quo, aren't happy with where the country is going, and even if leaving the EU isn't a silver bullet cure all, it's a start. Or at the very least a scream of defiance against an establishment which for two long has offered (as Galloway put it) two cheeks of the same arse.

It'll be leave. It won't be close.

I think that across the Western world, there are a lot of people (from all social groups, but especially White, working class or lower middle class, men) who feel their numbers, status, and fortunes are on the slide, and want to kick the people in charge.

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

tlg86 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

I'm 29 and live my parents. The prospects of getting on the housing ladder are not good and it's the same for a lot of my friends. Quite frankly, what do we have to lose by voting to leave? It probably won't make much difference, but maybe it's time to kick the hornets nest.

It's a very fair point. The same applies to a lot of unskilled working class voters who have been completely left behind and totally ignored by the party of the Leave establishment and taken for granted by Labour. I guess all I'd say is that those about to takeover the country will do all they can to ensure that the current status quo - including high house prices - remains in place. They need 37% of the vote to do so.

I think you could have written that article that Plato linked to.

I agree with every single word of it.

SouthamObserver said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

If REMAIN's "scare stories" have some truth, their time of being protected from cuts may be over.

They'll be the very last to feel the effects. It'll be the young and the working class first; then those on the cusp of the 40% tax rate.

Are you still holidaying in Spain where youth unemployment is 45%? Ask them about the EU.

They are very firmly pro-EU here. It has delivered huge advances and advantages. Far more tangible than for the UK.

The Spanish are as eurosceptical as the British.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/euroscepticism-on-the-rise-across-europe-as-analysis-finds-increasing-opposition-to-the-eu-in-france-a7069766.html

I'm afraid you're deluded.

For a little perspective, will anyone really be talking about politics today?

We have the Queen's Birthday, Birthday Honours, riots in Marseille and the small matter of England playing in rugby, cricket and football.

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

And the establishment will be absolutely fine. The idea that the right wing Tories about to takeover will do anything to challenge the positions and wealth of those who control the country is far-fetched, to say the least.

Of course. The EU mandates privatisation and bankism. The people who want out also want privatisation and bankism just with more of the profits kept by them. A lot of people voting leave would be in for a nasty shock should we actually leave.

Which we won't. Because we vote to leave. The dispossessed and discontented across Europe all demand their own votes, the EU realises the status quo is untenable and a proper renegotiation happens. A revised EU with less migration and more national freedom "isn't what people rejected, we have to put this to a vote" and hey presto we stay.

But you have to negotiate change from a position of power. Cameron had no power pledging to campaign to remain to they gave nothing. Actually get up from the table and they have to actually give ground.

I'd like to think so, but it'll be Boris and Gove negotiating with the member states. They are right wing Tories.

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

And still the turnout is going to be lowest amongst the youngest age group.

Yep - the young are their own worst enemies. There's a reason why Osborne has spent the last six years ensuring pensioners are very well looked after. Ironically, that is now about to bite him big time. The triple lock means they are shielded from any Brexit downsides.

Andrew Neil picked apart Osborne's nonsense on pensioners.

MonikerDiCanio said:

SouthamObserver said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

If REMAIN's "scare stories" have some truth, their time of being protected from cuts may be over.

They'll be the very last to feel the effects. It'll be the young and the working class first; then those on the cusp of the 40% tax rate.

Are you still holidaying in Spain where youth unemployment is 45%? Ask them about the EU.

They are very firmly pro-EU here. It has delivered huge advances and advantages. Far more tangible than for the UK.

The Spanish are as eurosceptical as the British.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/euroscepticism-on-the-rise-across-europe-as-analysis-finds-increasing-opposition-to-the-eu-in-france-a7069766.html

I'm afraid you're deluded.

Er considering Spain had dictatorship in living memory they won't leave the euro for a while.

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

A note from Anthony Wells. The next Ipsos MORI poll will very likely show a big swing to Leave, as the company will now filter out people who aren't registered to vote, will weight by educational attainment (to avoid over-sampling graduates) and likely weight by turnout.

If all these changes had been applied to their last poll, the lead would probably have been 9-10%, rather than 18%.

Surely that means they've been underestimating Leave's position from the beginning?

Yes. Ipsos polls were amongst the most ludicrous. One had a 20% REMAIN lead.... AFAIK.

MonikerDiCanio said:

SouthamObserver said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

If REMAIN's "scare stories" have some truth, their time of being protected from cuts may be over.

They'll be the very last to feel the effects. It'll be the young and the working class first; then those on the cusp of the 40% tax rate.

Are you still holidaying in Spain where youth unemployment is 45%? Ask them about the EU.

They are very firmly pro-EU here. It has delivered huge advances and advantages. Far more tangible than for the UK.

The Spanish are as eurosceptical as the British.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/euroscepticism-on-the-rise-across-europe-as-analysis-finds-increasing-opposition-to-the-eu-in-france-a7069766.html

I'm afraid you're deluded.

Let's see how many votes the avowedly Euro-sceptic parties in Spain harvest on 26th June, shall we?

nunu said:

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

It's leave's vote to lose now. All the momentum is with them because (sadly but unsurprisingly) the single issue of the campaign is migration and remain have no answer. So far the campaign has traded increasingly ludicrous claim and counter claim with "facts" that patently aren't.

But a lot of people aren't going with their head, they are going with their gut. And that tells them they are unhappy with the status quo, aren't happy with where the country is going, and even if leaving the EU isn't a silver bullet cure all, it's a start. Or at the very least a scream of defiance against an establishment which for two long has offered (as Galloway put it) two cheeks of the same arse.

It'll be leave. It won't be close.

I think that across the Western world, there are a lot of people (from all social groups, but especially White, working class or lower middle class, men) who feel their numbers, status, and fortunes are on the slide, and want to kick the people in charge.

Did u get my message!

I've replied.

fitalass said:

nunu said:

fitalass said:

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

It's leave's vote to lose now. All the momentum is with them because (sadly but unsurprisingly) the single issue of the campaign is migration and remain have no answer. So far the campaign has traded increasingly ludicrous claim and counter claim with "facts" that patently aren't.

But a lot of people aren't going with their head, they are going with their gut. And that tells them they are unhappy with the status quo, aren't happy with where the country is going, and even if leaving the EU isn't a silver bullet cure all, it's a start. Or at the very least a scream of defiance against an establishment which for two long has offered (as Galloway put it) two cheeks of the same arse.

It'll be leave. It won't be close.

I think that across the Western world, there are a lot of people (from all social groups, but especially White, working class or lower middle class, men) who feel their numbers, status, and fortunes are on the slide, and want to kick the people in charge.

Will the same 'white, working class or lower middle class, men who feel their numbers, status and fortunes are on the slide, and want to kick the people in charge' that will vote Trump for President in the US?

Massive difference between Trump and voting Leave. But yes there will be a lot of overlap.

Not really when you read some of the rants suggesting that voting to leave the EU is being driven by a protest vote against the Establishment. One hell of a risky protest vote.

Not for the Establishment!

Sandpit said:

PlatoSaid said:

Interesting read from Mr Election Data

http://election-data.co.uk/answer-the-hard-questions-show-some-leadership

Morning. That's a very good article, talking about the huge disconnect between Labour voters and the labour leadership (think Lady Nugee and her disgust at white van man).

If these DE groups turn out for Leave it could be key to the referendum result.

They will vote leave in their droves. I believe Labour's panic of the last few days is as they look at the voter ID data gathered these last few weeks and realise a significant section of our support is voting to leave. As the article says - and I've argued the same point internally vs the "happy clappy" EU is wonderful faction - the referendum is a vote on the status quo. And so many people in Labour heartlands feel left behind, there is no risk in a leave vote when remain means more of the same and the same for them is failure.

The article doesn't provide anew answer though. We are an internationalist party and many many members see that as supporting migration. It's unsustainable - you have have cross border solidarity and standards and rights without removing the border. And our economy would benefit from the same patriotic protectionism the French and Germans exercise - buy British eat British. Reinvigorating the UK supply chain whether it be food or cars or clothes - a patriotic appeal to create jobs here by not going for the cheapest option. It's not cheap in the long term if the pennies you save on imported veg means no jobs.

Sandpit said:

For a little perspective, will anyone really be talking about politics today?

We have the Queen's Birthday, Birthday Honours, riots in Marseille and the small matter of England playing in rugby, cricket and football.

With 3 home countries and Eire to watch and the speculation, getting airtime for the referendum will now prove challenging. Why did Cameron pick this timetable? Perhaps he expected to have built a massive lead before purdah time, so that LEAVE had been shut out of the media.

tlg86 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

I'm 29 and live my parents. The prospects of getting on the housing ladder are not good and it's the same for a lot of my friends. Quite frankly, what do we have to lose by voting to leave? It probably won't make much difference, but maybe it's time to kick the hornets nest.

What you want is self-contradictory. You want to be on a housing "ladder". But the point about the "ladder" is that you keep going up it. You don't want to be on the housing snake. However, since people have been relentlessly climbing this ladder for several decades in the expectation of unearned wealth, housing is now very expensive, so you can't afford it.

The pyramid scheme that is Britain's housing system is entirely self-inflicted. Britain has plenty of space to build homes, and plenty of scope to build up and down on land that already has buildings on it, but once voters are on the ladder don't want their asset depreciating, so they vote for the continuation of Britain's astonishingly restrictive Stalin-meets-Mary-Whitehouse planning system.

Pong said:

Looking into that ORB poll...

38% of respondents who DIDN'T VOTE in GE2015 are 10/10 ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN to vote in the referendum. Between 8-10 on the likely-to-vote scale, it's 51%.

That's 51% of the people who didn't show up to the polls last May are telling the pollsters they're going to vote in the referendum.

Page 3;

http://opinion.co.uk/perch/resources/orbindependent-friday-10th-june-final-data-tables.pdf

I have been ignoring all ORB polls.

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

And the establishment will be absolutely fine. The idea that the right wing Tories about to takeover will do anything to challenge the positions and wealth of those who control the country is far-fetched, to say the least.

Of course. The EU mandates privatisation and bankism. The people who want out also want privatisation and bankism just with more of the profits kept by them. A lot of people voting leave would be in for a nasty shock should we actually leave.

Which we won't. Because we vote to leave. The dispossessed and discontented across Europe all demand their own votes, the EU realises the status quo is untenable and a proper renegotiation happens. A revised EU with less migration and more national freedom "isn't what people rejected, we have to put this to a vote" and hey presto we stay.

But you have to negotiate change from a position of power. Cameron had no power pledging to campaign to remain to they gave nothing. Actually get up from the table and they have to actually give ground.

I'd like to think so, but it'll be Boris and Gove negotiating with the member states. They are right wing Tories.

What complete tosh. They're not ring wing at all.

I imagine our definitions of right wing are very different. They believe in reducing the taxes of the best off, cutting public services, restricting trade union rights and shrinking the size of the state. That's right wing in my book.

edmundintokyo said:

tlg86 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

I'm 29 and live my parents. The prospects of getting on the housing ladder are not good and it's the same for a lot of my friends. Quite frankly, what do we have to lose by voting to leave? It probably won't make much difference, but maybe it's time to kick the hornets nest.

What you want is self-contradictory. You want to be on a housing "ladder". But the point about the "ladder" is that you keep going up it. You don't want to be on the housing snake. However, since people have been relentlessly climbing this ladder for several decades in the expectation of unearned wealth, housing is now very expensive, so you can't afford it.

The pyramid scheme that is Britain's housing system is entirely self-inflicted. Britain has plenty of space to build homes, and plenty of scope to build up and down on land that already has buildings on it, but once voters are on the ladder don't want their asset depreciating, so they vote for the continuation of Britain's astonishingly restrictive Stalin-meets-Mary-Whitehouse planning system.

Yep, and the (even more) right wing Tories about to takeover know that maintaining house prices are a key issue for their demographic.

fitalass said:

SouthamObserver said:

fitalass said:

nunu said:

fitalass said:

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

It's leave's vote to lose now. All the momentum is with them because (sadly but unsurprisingly) the single issue of the campaign is migration and remain have no answer. So far the campaign has traded increasingly ludicrous claim and counter claim with "facts" that patently aren't.

But a lot of people aren't going with their head, they are going with their gut. And that tells them they are unhappy with the status quo, aren't happy with where the country is going, and even if leaving the EU isn't a silver bullet cure all, it's a start. Or at the very least a scream of defiance against an establishment which for two long has offered (as Galloway put it) two cheeks of the same arse.

It'll be leave. It won't be close.

I think that across the Western world, there are a lot of people (from all social groups, but especially White, working class or lower middle class, men) who feel their numbers, status, and fortunes are on the slide, and want to kick the people in charge.

Will the same 'white, working class or lower middle class, men who feel their numbers, status and fortunes are on the slide, and want to kick the people in charge' that will vote Trump for President in the US?

Massive difference between Trump and voting Leave. But yes there will be a lot of overlap.

Not really when you read some of the rants suggesting that voting to leave the EU is being driven by a protest vote against the Establishment. One hell of a risky protest vote.

Not for the Establishment!

That comment about sums up the incredible mess the Labour party have managed to get itself into when it comes to failing to focus on the issues that matter, or any coherent message during this EU Referendum campaign! For all the Labour party's talk of Blue on Blue attacks, it is now longer able to hide its own incredible confused EU omnishambles.

I agree. Corbyn will own Brexit almost as much as Cameron and Osborne. But he'll be far less concerned. And the party membership will not hold it against him.

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Some of the yoof vote of 1975 backed Remain, and are now repenting by voting Out. The vision of being part of a common market morphed into something with a single currency, a supine parliament, and rule by technocrats.

It is hard to call. I keep wondering what level of postal votes have already been returned?

PlatoSaid said:

Sandpit said:

For a little perspective, will anyone really be talking about politics today?

We have the Queen's Birthday, Birthday Honours, riots in Marseille and the small matter of England playing in rugby, cricket and football.

I'm trying to avoid Mohammed Ali's funeral. This is almost as bad as Michael Jackson Is Still Dead.

Oh yeah, and that. Old man who's been really sick for years finally loses his last fight. Sad, but no need to get hysterical about it.

By the way, the James Dyson interview in the DT is brilliant. We need to find a few more people like him.

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SouthamObserver said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

CarlottaVance said:

it's the conundrum of this referendum- the more change averse - the elderly more in favour of change, while young embracers of the new favoring the status quo...

Or maybe the elderly leavers favour the status quo of their youth, while the young remainers are motivated by dreams of political union, a radical change, just as might be expected from their respective age groups.

Pensioners have a cost-free vote; younger people don't.

If REMAIN's "scare stories" have some truth, their time of being protected from cuts may be over.

They'll be the very last to feel the effects. It'll be the young and the working class first; then those on the cusp of the 40% tax rate.

Are you still holidaying in Spain where youth unemployment is 45%? Ask them about the EU.

They are very firmly pro-EU here. It has delivered huge advances and advantages. Far more tangible than for the UK.

The Spanish are as eurosceptical as the British.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/euroscepticism-on-the-rise-across-europe-as-analysis-finds-increasing-opposition-to-the-eu-in-france-a7069766.html

I'm afraid you're deluded.

Let's see how many votes the avowedly Euro-sceptic parties in Spain harvest on 26th June, shall we?

Not sure that's a good measure - well over 80% of the UK electorate voted for pro-EU parties in 2015.

The Tories posed as an avowedly Eurosceptic party last year. There are no anti-EU parties in Spain and one that is Eurosceptic. There's a reason for that.

Edit - the Falange may be anti-EU, actually. But I doubt they'll get many votes.

Corbyn is naturally Eurosceptic. As are a significant number of party members. As are a lot of Labour voters. The PLP insisted on a remain position and mostly in or ed by the media the party has been campaigning on the street for remain. We've done extensive door knocking. And what it's shown is that whilst remain is solid in London and some urban centres it's demolished by Leave elsewhere.

So what do you do? Party establishment says remain, party voter base says leave. As with Cameron the party position is disconnected from party supporters. So the best thing we can do in my opinion is nothing (expressed by many at our recent CLP meeting) - the more we campaign for remain the more damage we do. That continuity New Labour are already lining up to blame losing the referendum on Corbyn further demonstrates who far from their voters these MPs are.

We don't listen to experts...

@faisalislam: 13 Nobel scientists incl Higgs/graphene discoverers say Brexit puts UK science "in jeopardy" -& Leave claims 'naive' https://t.co/0l1BQjM6nE

Scott_P said:

We don't listen to experts...

@faisalislam: 13 Nobel scientists incl Higgs/graphene discoverers say Brexit puts UK science "in jeopardy" -& Leave claims 'naive' https://t.co/0l1BQjM6nE

And how much science funding is recycled through the EU blob?

Much rather listen to someone who actually makes money from all his inventions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/sir-james-dyson-so-if-we-leave-the-eu-no-one-will-trade-with-us/

Scott_P said:

We don't listen to experts...

@faisalislam: 13 Nobel scientists incl Higgs/graphene discoverers say Brexit puts UK science "in jeopardy" -& Leave claims 'naive' https://t.co/0l1BQjM6nE

F*** Off Experts, we're voting leave!

david_herdson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

And the establishment will be absolutely fine. The idea that the right wing Tories about to takeover will do anything to challenge the positions and wealth of those who control the country is far-fetched, to say the least.

Of course. The EU mandates privatisation and bankism. The people who want out also want privatisation and bankism just with more of the profits kept by them. A lot of people voting leave would be in for a nasty shock should we actually leave.

Which we won't. Because we vote to leave. The dispossessed and discontented across Europe all demand their own votes, the EU realises the status quo is untenable and a proper renegotiation happens. A revised EU with less migration and more national freedom "isn't what people rejected, we have to put this to a vote" and hey presto we stay.

But you have to negotiate change from a position of power. Cameron had no power pledging to campaign to remain to they gave nothing. Actually get up from the table and they have to actually give ground.

I think Cameron did have power and it wasn't necessary to threaten to walk out; the British public was making that threat for him so he wouldn't have had to lose personal faith with his EU colleagues: "The deal you are offering cannot be sold" should have been his line. His error was in trying to conclude everything within a year when he gave himself 30 months.

There was no error. He was never going to get anything to speak of, for reasons people who follow European politics have been posting here ever since he announced the policy. The renegotiation was a device to get through the 2015 general election without admitting that he supported the EU. It worked, and the move will have little to no effect on the outcome of the referendum: Leave may win, but if they win then they'd also have won if Cameron hadn't pulled the renegotiation scam. (*)

(*) Except in so far as there may not have been a referendum for them to win, because he'd lost the 2015 election and the LibDems or EICPM didn't want to hold one.