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No more polls tonight, please0
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Test0
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Well, if nothing else, I'll savour the moment. Still seems like a dodgy poll though.0
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With polling like this, the fact you can still get leave at 3.3 is mental.0
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Fill your boots.SeanT said:LEAVE should be 5/4 not 2/1
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No overusing the Ode to Joy references!0
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Pipping Toint!0
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I've got 'Stuck In The Middle With EU' coming up this weekend.kle4 said:No overusing the Ode to Joy references!
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Don't really trust ORB.0
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Ooh. Cat/Pigeons interface tonight!0
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It feels more and more like the groupthink that led to NOM being the favourite in May last year. I still think that it will be remain by a whisker, but certainly there is a better than 30% chance of a leave vote.0
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Absolutely no surprise.
I remind you all, I am on:
Leave to win - 4/1 (£100)
Leave to win with sub-65% turnout - 7/1 (£100)
Leave to win with 65%+ turnout - 8/1 (£50)
I simply cannot believe these odds were ever available.0 -
Disfunctional editing:
Less-spamming and more content and our 'lawyer' would be less the butt-of-our-jokes.
OK: Access is via the Vanilla forum (due to post-preference). Story visible via link (but posted by others already).0 -
OK so REMAIN identify they have a problem with working class Labour voters backing REMAIN. Their solution is to have Ed Miliband at the front of their campaign today. Is Ed really the best person to persuade these voters? FFS0
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FPT: Mr. Mark, well, that was the real reason why Pluto 'isn't a planet anymore'. Ahem
On-topic: Ode to Joy always makes me think of Die Hard, the best Christmas film in the world.
Still 13 days to go. No point getting giddy over one poll.0 -
Does anybody know where I can get some bloody labour leave leaflets from? I am willing to pay I want to deliver them in my area to convince Labour voters to swich and this poll seems to say we can get them to.
I've phoned the number on the website but nothing. Please, thanx.0 -
Also, Ipsos Mori have issued a note about the methodological changes for the next poll which goes into the field this weekend, and is out next Wednesday.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/latestnews/1775/Statement-on-polling-methodology-and-turnout-tests-in-the-EU-referendum.aspx#.V1r7qbwY7OI.twitter
I would like to give some analysis, but I'm knackered, busy, and really don't want to think about politics/polling/betting/Eu Referendum for one night this week.0 -
I felt years ago, back when I was a reluctant Remainer, that Leave would win, and even argued with pessimistic UKippers, particularly those who felt any referendum would be rigged. I felt that way as I felt the core appeals of Leave only only magnify as the day drew nearer, and had enough big name cheerleaders and media supporters, even if the media overall and the establishment was overwhelmingly for Remain.
I feel like that is still the case. The IndyRef Yessers never had such polling bounty this far out, and even this is an extreme poll, it seems at worst it'll be bloody close.0 -
I can see the Eurocrats having to work through the weekend (the horror!) to formulate some Associate status to offer us.SeanT said:Talking of vows there is one thing the EU can do, offer us a proper emergency brake, where we can temporarily halt immigration when it exceeds some percentage of the population.
It will be illegal, silly, not in the treaties, blah blah, but the EU has a history of just making shit up when things get really hard.
Why not now?
That would still win it for Dave.
Meanwhile, Cameron will be getting some packing cases ordered. And sewing herring into the Downing Street curtains, ready for Boris' arrival....0 -
Depending how many people have postal voted it may already be too lateSeanT said:Talking of vows there is one thing the EU can do, offer us a proper emergency brake, where we can temporarily halt immigration when it exceeds some percentage of the population.
It will be illegal, silly, not in the treaties, blah blah, but the EU has a history of just making shit up when things get really hard.
Why not now?
That would still win it for Dave.0 -
Labour Voters? TSE
They've Shafted the EU0 -
Dr Palmer's canvassing hasn't picked up these dramatic changes. Must be a rogue.0
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In despair that ca. half of the population have "taken leave" of their senses by listening to the "vapid bilge" of the leave camp I expect!SeanT said:Where's Mister Nabavi to reassure us, in lofty tones, that it will probably be 70/30 in favour of REMAIN?
He's gone all quiet.0 -
Mr. Betting, hell yes he is!0
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Leave to win - 4/1 (£100) is by far the best bet of that lotSouthamObserver said:Absolutely no surprise.
I remind you all, I am on:
Leave to win - 4/1 (£100)
Leave to win with sub-65% turnout - 7/1 (£100)
Leave to win with 65%+ turnout - 8/1 (£50)
I simply cannot believe these odds were ever available.
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The same Mr Miliband who wasn't seen as an electoral asset by same cohort of voters last year?TCPoliticalBetting said:OK so REMAIN identify they have a problem with working class Labour voters backing REMAIN. Their solution is to have Ed Miliband at the front of their campaign today. Is Ed really the best person to persuade these voters? FFS
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My view is the French would be glad to get shot of us.MarqueeMark said:
I can see the Eurocrats having to work through the weekend (the horror!) to formulate some Associate status to offer us.SeanT said:Talking of vows there is one thing the EU can do, offer us a proper emergency brake, where we can temporarily halt immigration when it exceeds some percentage of the population.
It will be illegal, silly, not in the treaties, blah blah, but the EU has a history of just making shit up when things get really hard.
Why not now?
That would still win it for Dave.
Meanwhile, Cameron will be getting some packing cases ordered. And sewing herring into the Downing Street curtains, ready for Boris' arrival....0 -
That Yougov had Yes 51% No 49% and No won 55% to 45%, so on the same swingback Remain would win 51% to 49%kle4 said:I felt years ago, back when I was a reluctant Remainer, that Leave would win, and even argued with pessimistic UKippers, particularly those who felt any referendum would be rigged. I felt that way as I felt the core appeals of Leave only only magnify as the day drew nearer, and had enough big name cheerleaders and media supporters, even if the media overall and the establishment was overwhelmingly for Remain.
I feel like that is still the case. The IndyRef Yessers never had such polling bounty this far out, and even this is an extreme poll, it seems at worst it'll be bloody close.0 -
Die Hard is brilliant, but shares the honours for best Christmas film in the world with "Gremlins". Hans Gruber was bad-ass, but he never got to put anybody in a blender....Morris_Dancer said:FPT: Mr. Mark, well, that was the real reason why Pluto 'isn't a planet anymore'. Ahem
On-topic: Ode to Joy always makes me think of Die Hard, the best Christmas film in the world.
Still 13 days to go. No point getting giddy over one poll.0 -
It's quite funny in some ways that Dave has spent all of his political capital on trying to win over wavering Conservatives and it could be Labour voters that lead us out of the EU door. He has also alienated quite a few members that I know, people who would previously have backed him post-Leave as long as he dumped Osborne and a few others in the remain camp are now turning against him. I think this is why the remain campaign is morphing into the stop Boris campaign.TCPoliticalBetting said:Labour Voters? TSE
They've Shafted the EU0 -
But John Mann's has.MonikerDiCanio said:Dr Palmer's canvassing hasn't picked up these dramatic changes. Must be a rogue.
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Denmark and Sweden will follow which means three rich contributor nations are out of the EU.John_M said:
My view is the French would be glad to get shot of us.MarqueeMark said:
I can see the Eurocrats having to work through the weekend (the horror!) to formulate some Associate status to offer us.SeanT said:Talking of vows there is one thing the EU can do, offer us a proper emergency brake, where we can temporarily halt immigration when it exceeds some percentage of the population.
It will be illegal, silly, not in the treaties, blah blah, but the EU has a history of just making shit up when things get really hard.
Why not now?
That would still win it for Dave.
Meanwhile, Cameron will be getting some packing cases ordered. And sewing herring into the Downing Street curtains, ready for Boris' arrival....0 -
Yep - but I like the 7/1 shot too.Pulpstar said:
Leave to win - 4/1 (£100) is by far the best bet of that lotSouthamObserver said:Absolutely no surprise.
I remind you all, I am on:
Leave to win - 4/1 (£100)
Leave to win with sub-65% turnout - 7/1 (£100)
Leave to win with 65%+ turnout - 8/1 (£50)
I simply cannot believe these odds were ever available.
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Surprisingly, Betfair has bounced back a bit:
6pm: Remain 1.35
After ORB: Remain 1.43
Now: Remain 1.390 -
It's at this time of doubt and uncertainty that we need IOS's brilliant insights into the national ground game. Such a loss to the site.rottenborough said:
But John Mann's has.MonikerDiCanio said:Dr Palmer's canvassing hasn't picked up these dramatic changes. Must be a rogue.
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Where's IOSrottenborough said:
But John Mann's has.MonikerDiCanio said:Dr Palmer's canvassing hasn't picked up these dramatic changes. Must be a rogue.
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Suicide watch?SeanT said:Where's Mister Nabavi to reassure us, in lofty tones, that it will probably be 70/30 in favour of REMAIN?
He's gone all quiet.
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LOL! Snap.John_M said:
It's at this time of doubt and uncertainty that we need IOS's brilliant insights into the national ground game. Such a loss to the site.rottenborough said:
But John Mann's has.MonikerDiCanio said:Dr Palmer's canvassing hasn't picked up these dramatic changes. Must be a rogue.
PB Tories.. so predicable (yet somehow always right)0 -
I'd say that SO has got himself a good haul of bets there!Pulpstar said:
Leave to win - 4/1 (£100) is by far the best bet of that lotSouthamObserver said:Absolutely no surprise.
I remind you all, I am on:
Leave to win - 4/1 (£100)
Leave to win with sub-65% turnout - 7/1 (£100)
Leave to win with 65%+ turnout - 8/1 (£50)
I simply cannot believe these odds were ever available.0 -
Total Groupthink. I find it extraordinary that Remain remains the favourite. I could never see it.MaxPB said:It feels more and more like the groupthink that led to NOM being the favourite in May last year. I still think that it will be remain by a whisker, but certainly there is a better than 30% chance of a leave vote.
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PB ex-Tory if you don't mind, how very dare you!RobD said:
LOL! Snap.John_M said:
It's at this time of doubt and uncertainty that we need IOS's brilliant insights into the national ground game. Such a loss to the site.rottenborough said:
But John Mann's has.MonikerDiCanio said:Dr Palmer's canvassing hasn't picked up these dramatic changes. Must be a rogue.
PB Tories.. so predicable (yet somehow always right) 0 -
Could be as close as the clash between Vitellius and Vespasian.
At the Battle of Bedriacum, the two armies were locked in a very close contest. As dawn broke, the legions of Vespasian, having adopted a local custom from the East, turned to salute the sun. The forces of Vitellius thought they were greeting reinforcements, lost heart, and shortly thereafter surrendered.0 -
This is either an outlying poll, or something very significant could be happening. Very worrying times for Britain's economy, cohesion and global influence.0
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A PB Tory's not just for Christmas.... isn't that the saying?John_M said:
PB ex-Tory if you don't mind, how very dare you!RobD said:
LOL! Snap.John_M said:
It's at this time of doubt and uncertainty that we need IOS's brilliant insights into the national ground game. Such a loss to the site.rottenborough said:
But John Mann's has.MonikerDiCanio said:Dr Palmer's canvassing hasn't picked up these dramatic changes. Must be a rogue.
PB Tories.. so predicable (yet somehow always right)0 -
Yes, but they also probably won't vote.SeanT said:
But it accords with 1. the trend, and 2. all the anecdotal evidence - it's Labour voters who are looking mutinous and LEAVERYLuckyguy1983 said:Don't really trust ORB.
I'll believe Remain think they're seriously losing when we see some form of capitulation/compromise from Cameron. He could put together a package of measures without the EU that would change the mood music.0 -
If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.0 -
Always bet on the opposite of what it finds?MonikerDiCanio said:Dr Palmer's canvassing hasn't picked up these dramatic changes. Must be a rogue.
A new PB rule?
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Bloody Little Englanders...or something like that...
Please take a moment to think of all the fags Cameron will be hitting this evening.0 -
Mr. Mark, Gruber is what lifted the film from being merely good to excellent. Heroes are often defined by villains (Die Hard went from a charismatic German superthief to a disgruntled ex-IT worker...).0
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At 9.00 am June 24th, Radio 3 will play a recording marked 'Sehr feierlich und sehr langsam", Cameron will have found the revolver and whisky.0
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Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign managerMikeL said:If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.0 -
Talking Britain down is just what Remain needs.... Have some faith in the gumption of the great British public to make opportunity by the horns and run where the EU can't even waddle.RealBritain said:This is either an outlying poll, or something very significant could be happening. Very worrying times for Britain's economy, cohesion and global influence.
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Like what? That is believable?Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, but they also probably won't vote.SeanT said:
But it accords with 1. the trend, and 2. all the anecdotal evidence - it's Labour voters who are looking mutinous and LEAVERYLuckyguy1983 said:Don't really trust ORB.
I'll believe Remain think they're seriously losing when we see some form of capitulation/compromise from Cameron. He could put together a package of measures without the EU that would change the mood music.
This is a massive lead fro leave.
It is just a poll, and polls schmolls... but there has been a trend to leave.0 -
But will Osborne make the final 2?TheScreamingEagles said:
Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign managerMikeL said:If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.0 -
Boris should tweet back "What, again!!!???"TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Provided they are not duty free, it helps the exchequer.FrancisUrquhart said:Bloody Little Englanders...or something like that...
Please take a moment to think of all the fags Cameron will be hitting this evening.0 -
Pulling. Your. Leg....TheScreamingEagles said:
Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign managerMikeL said:If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.0 -
Brown would be more effective, he is the senior Labour figure who goes down best with the white working class, even Gillian Duffy said she respected him despite their disagreement. Could he save 2 referendums?dr_spyn said:
The same Mr Miliband who wasn't seen as an electoral asset by same cohort of voters last year?TCPoliticalBetting said:OK so REMAIN identify they have a problem with working class Labour voters backing REMAIN. Their solution is to have Ed Miliband at the front of their campaign today. Is Ed really the best person to persuade these voters? FFS
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Problem with Osborne is that he plays too many games trying to be too clever by half.TheScreamingEagles said:
Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign managerMikeL said:If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.0 -
Will he do it properly this time?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I never thought he'd beat that. It just reaffirms what a crap strategist he has always been.SeanT said:Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.0 -
As long as he delivers a win, it's job done for him. I still think he'll do it. Labour voters might be mutinous but if they're like the PLP, they'll bottle it at the last minute.SeanT said:Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.0 -
Surely that would be the most bizarre move since Redwood backed Clarke?TheScreamingEagles said:
Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign managerMikeL said:If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.0 -
Was the person who in April 2015 told me the Tories were at least 50-75 seats ahead of Labour in England & Wales, when all the polls were showing it neck and neck.MarqueeMark said:
Pulling. Your. Leg....TheScreamingEagles said:
Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign managerMikeL said:If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.0 -
Fair play to Andrew Neil - he's got a good angle on Farage and immigration. Not sure it'll make much difference to the referendum, mind.0
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Presumably whatever the outcome Dave's awesome boundary review is dead in the water now?0
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Gove is a Cameroon, he's also very close to Osborne.MikeL said:
Surely that would be the most bizarre move since Redwood backed Clarke?TheScreamingEagles said:
Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign managerMikeL said:If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.
Right I must depart, earlier on this after I promised someone that I wouldn't visit PB until Saturday morning.0 -
Havien't the stakes been upped these days? Doesn't it also require a sausage up the bum too?FrancisUrquhart said:
Will he do it properly this time?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
They're not.John_M said:
As long as he delivers a win, it's job done for him. I still think he'll do it. Labour voters might be mutinous but if they're like the PLP, they'll bottle it at the last minute.SeanT said:Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.
The WWC are fed up with being called waycists ect by people who read the Guardian. They're angry and rightly so.0 -
What - JackW??TheScreamingEagles said:
Was the person who in April 2015 told me the Tories were at least 50-75 seats ahead of Labour in England & Wales, when all the polls were showing it neck and neck.MarqueeMark said:
Pulling. Your. Leg....TheScreamingEagles said:
Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign managerMikeL said:If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.0 -
It's not his, it's the boundary commission, and the current boundaries are woefully outdated.Monksfield said:Presumably whatever the outcome Dave's awesome boundary review is dead in the water now?
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Farage doing well on BBC with Neil. Farage has prepared.0
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I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.0
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It's not a car crash, which is what I was worried about. Seems to have some PB lines too,,,TCPoliticalBetting said:Farage doing well on BBC with Neil. Farage has prepared.
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what is the sample size?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I did say that Stronger In had taken the wrong lessons from the Scottish Indy ref.Starfall said:I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
Paul Mason is waiting for the vow, It isn't going to happen.0 -
Something better than lower airfares and roaming charges.Starfall said:I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
Well put. Mr, Ms Starfall and welcome.0 -
Must have stuck to a light lunch of 4 pints, 2 bottles of vino and a large whiskey today.TCPoliticalBetting said:Farage doing well on BBC with Neil. Farage has prepared.
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When you say positive vision, does that entail full endorsement of the endgame of full political union, or still stopping short of that but praising all it has done to date?Starfall said:I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
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I can sympathise absolutely with that. I feel the same way about the Leave campaign. It just seems at the moment that the Leave campaign is slightly less absolutely rubbish than the Remain campaign. But there is not much between the two to be honest.Starfall said:I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
I know which side of the argument I want to win. I just wish both campaigns could lose because whichever wins people are going to think that is a successful template for future campaigns.0 -
Did you watch the debate last night? I thought Leave put forward a very civilized case.Richard_Tyndall said:
I can sympathise absolutely with that. I feel the same way about the Leave campaign. It just seems at the moment that the Leave campaign is slightly less absolutely rubbish than the Remain campaign. But there is not much between the two to be honest.Starfall said:I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
I know which side of the argument I want to win. I just wish both campaigns could lose because whichever wins people are going to think that is a successful template for future campaigns.0 -
This poll could be vapid bilge?0
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Agreed. But they can't so I hope Leave wins.Richard_Tyndall said:
I can sympathise absolutely with that. I feel the same way about the Leave campaign. It just seems at the moment that the Leave campaign is slightly less absolutely rubbish than the Remain campaign. But there is not much between the two to be honest.Starfall said:I'm really upset about this. I knew the decision by StrongerIn to go so negative would be a backfire. They have stopped making practical arguments and instead they have spent their time talking about how awful Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are. People are not fools. They know this is a referendum on EU membership and not on the men leading the Brexit campaign. We need a positive vision for the European Union and we are not hearing it.
I know which side of the argument I want to win. I just wish both campaigns could lose because whichever wins people are going to think that is a successful template for future campaigns.0 -
Mr. Starfall, welcome to pb.com.
I must agree. The 'Little England' slogan seems designed to irritate people, and Rudd's comments about Boris Johnson were thoroughly despicable.
Mr. White, Mason's taking the Sturgeon line: he wants to vote to stay in [although he dislikes the EU] because it can help mitigate what our democratically elected government can do.0 -
If Cameron delivers in heroin that energizes UKIP or fractures the Conservatives which in turn leads to voting reform to deal with the new multi party setup that Britain will have which then results in weak governments which gives the impetus for Scottish independence then... well it's a scenario.John_M said:
As long as he delivers a win, it's job done for him. I still think he'll do it. Labour voters might be mutinous but if they're like the PLP, they'll bottle it at the last minute.SeanT said:Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.
Imagine his feelings.0 -
From someone close to the action:
If high turnout, Remain wins.
If low turnout, Leave wins.
Dave will survive any confidence vote by his MPs.0 -
The idea that we need the EU to moderate our democracy is bonkers especially as they are treating unions in Sweden badly.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Starfall, welcome to pb.com.
I must agree. The 'Little England' slogan seems designed to irritate people, and Rudd's comments about Boris Johnson were thoroughly despicable.
Mr. White, Mason's taking the Sturgeon line: he wants to vote to stay in [although he dislikes the EU] because it can help mitigate what our democratically elected government can do.0 -
I haven't a clue as to whether Romania's membership is dodgy, but I bet there are people thinking that Farage has a point when he says "well they let Romania in, why won't they let Turkey?"0
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Serious reform of the welfare system, making it contributory rather than universal. Leaving the ECHR and British bill of rights. A third thing. Everything sounds better in threes.BenedictWhite said:
Like what? That is believable?Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, but they also probably won't vote.SeanT said:
But it accords with 1. the trend, and 2. all the anecdotal evidence - it's Labour voters who are looking mutinous and LEAVERYLuckyguy1983 said:Don't really trust ORB.
I'll believe Remain think they're seriously losing when we see some form of capitulation/compromise from Cameron. He could put together a package of measures without the EU that would change the mood music.
This is a massive lead fro leave.
It is just a poll, and polls schmolls... but there has been a trend to leave.
It wouldn't be without issues. It would break up the Remain coalition of lefties and Tories for a start. But I think they could cobble together enough to ease people's guilt and get them to the polls for Remain - like Scotland. The fact there are no signs of this are surely a signal they aren't uncertain enough of victory.0 -
Mr. Perdix, I wonder if many Labour voters will fail to turn out.
SNP types might be in two minds as well (aside from pro-independence chaps like Mr. G who wants both Scottish independence and to leave the EU anyway).0 -
If he did that all hell would break loose and no one will believe he would follow through with it anywayLuckyguy1983 said:
Serious reform of the welfare system, making it contributory rather than universal. Leaving the ECHR and British bill of rights. A third thing. Everything sounds better in threes.BenedictWhite said:
Like what? That is believable?Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, but they also probably won't vote.SeanT said:
But it accords with 1. the trend, and 2. all the anecdotal evidence - it's Labour voters who are looking mutinous and LEAVERYLuckyguy1983 said:Don't really trust ORB.
I'll believe Remain think they're seriously losing when we see some form of capitulation/compromise from Cameron. He could put together a package of measures without the EU that would change the mood music.
This is a massive lead fro leave.
It is just a poll, and polls schmolls... but there has been a trend to leave.
It wouldn't be without issues. It would break up the Remain coalition of lefties and Tories for a start. But I think they could cobble together enough to ease people's guilt and get them to the polls for Remain - like Scotland. The fact there are no signs of this are surely a signal they aren't uncertain enough of victory.0 -
Sorry, the change to benefits will lose at least as many voters as it gains. the ECHR thing is a non starter inside the EU as well.Luckyguy1983 said:
Serious reform of the welfare system, making it contributory rather than universal. Leaving the ECHR and British bill of rights. A third thing. Everything sounds better in threes.BenedictWhite said:
Like what? That is believable?Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, but they also probably won't vote.SeanT said:
But it accords with 1. the trend, and 2. all the anecdotal evidence - it's Labour voters who are looking mutinous and LEAVERYLuckyguy1983 said:Don't really trust ORB.
I'll believe Remain think they're seriously losing when we see some form of capitulation/compromise from Cameron. He could put together a package of measures without the EU that would change the mood music.
This is a massive lead fro leave.
It is just a poll, and polls schmolls... but there has been a trend to leave.
It wouldn't be without issues. It would break up the Remain coalition of lefties and Tories for a start. But I think they could cobble together enough to ease people's guilt and get them to the polls for Remain - like Scotland. The fact there are no signs of this are surely a signal they aren't uncertain enough of victory.0 -
I believe the point is that Romania & Hungary were told they couldn't join until they had sorted out the rampant corruption & organised crime...and they didn't / haven't and they still let them in.tlg86 said:I haven't a clue as to whether Romania's membership is dodgy, but I bet there are people thinking that Farage has a point when he says "well they let Romania in, why won't they let Turkey?"
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Why would Osborne even bother standing? He's even more europhile than Cam. Him and Cameron will both be finished if LEAVE wins.TheScreamingEagles said:
Earlier on this week, I was told by someone who knows their stuff, if Dave goes on June 24th, Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign managerMikeL said:If Leave wins and Gove backs Boris, then Boris will walk into Downing Street.
But could Gove back Leadsom? If he does, could she come from nowhere to the top job in a few weeks? Must be a chance.0 -
They seem to have expanded the Schauble interview, hope it's of interest:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/spiegel-interview-with-wolfgang-schaeuble-on-brexit-a-1096999.html#ref=rss0 -
It still has to go through Parliament doesn't it. And yes, no problem with a reapportionment - it's the reduction to 600 that will make it struggle.RobD said:
It's not his, it's the boundary commission, and the current boundaries are woefully outdated.Monksfield said:Presumably whatever the outcome Dave's awesome boundary review is dead in the water now?
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What a wise and learned fellow.BenedictWhite said:
It's not a car crash, which is what I was worried about. Seems to have some PB lines too,,,TCPoliticalBetting said:Farage doing well on BBC with Neil. Farage has prepared.
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