politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -
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Two of the three Remainers seem intent on fighting Tory austerity rather than a referendum.Casino_Royale said:Trouble is that Remain have come here prepared to fight Farage and Boris's career ambitions.
They're actually fighting a coherent Vote Leave team on the arguments.0 -
One of the myths of politics. Along with people appreciating compromise from their political leaders, appreciating leaders changing their minds after listening to the public, that we vote for candidates not party labels, by and large, etc etcFreggles said:Why are they only applauding personal attacks? I thought the public didn't like Punch and Judy stuff?
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Oh dear. Amber Rudd: "I urge people to look to the experts."0
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Boris has had a lot of bad press the last few months, but his "I agree with Gisela/Andrea" is simple and effective. We aint gonna here those lines from the Remainers.0
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Outers come over as a team.
Boris really quite impressive as a team player.0 -
Yes!geoffw said:Some have mentioned Amber Rudd as successor to Cameron.
Can't see it myself.
Andrea Leadsom however ...0 -
My best guess is that they underestimated how skeptical the electorate are now. I don't just mean with respect to the EU, it's everything.MP_SE said:
There is clearly something weird going on with those in the Remain camp. It could just be they expected to be 10-15% ahead by now and it is actually really tight. Or maybe private polling showing something else.PlatoSaid said:Very surprised by Remain - they sound rattled and rude.
People do not trust traditional power structures, they don't react as expected when the great and good make their appeals based on authority. It's not a UK-only phenomenon of course.0 -
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When you've abandoned your political career that's the only way you can claim any relevance. I have sympathy for her because she did have some talent.BenedictWhite said:
I think Louise thinks the attack dog approach is always best. It isn't.TheScreamingEagles said:I see Louise Mensch has apologised for smearing Dr Wollaston
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What sort of ADD brain addled cretin designed this format? It specifically rules out a considered and explained point.0
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Eagles looked like she's about to explode.
Another personal attack on Boris by Sturgeon. Does she want to move into Number 10?0 -
Nicola cannot help herself going on about "Toories".0
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Boris is playing this very well. Going personal on him will not go down well with the public.0
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Rudd with her arms folded is a very bad look.0
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The Leavers are smashing this. They've gelled well. Better arguments, better jokes, great teamwork. Wouldn't like to be in the Remain dressing room after this one. Dave will be kicking the sandwiches around.0
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Yes, question is whether she puts off Scottish unionists or not.peter_from_putney said:
I don't know exactly why it is, but I and virtually everyone I've spoken to (admittedly virtually 100% English) has a problem with Nicola Sturgeon. I suspect she's a liability to the REMAIN cause on a programme such as this.Casino_Royale said:Remain are not having a good debate so far.
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On tonight's performance, my nominations for next PM are:
1) Leadsom
2) Julie Eltchingham
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Stuart great at just talking over the rabble...0
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the first good answer Nicola has given there. The UK government is largely in control of the NHS already.0
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Very impressed by Gisela Stuart. Sturgeon and Eagle dire, seem to think it's an election campaign.0
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Well yes, but attacking someone for disagreeing with you isn't the best way to win the argument.williamglenn said:
When you've abandoned your political career that's the only way you can claim any relevance. I have sympathy for her because she did have some talent.BenedictWhite said:
I think Louise thinks the attack dog approach is always best. It isn't.TheScreamingEagles said:I see Louise Mensch has apologised for smearing Dr Wollaston
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Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.0
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Yes Amber, look to Martin Armstrong! He's worth 1 billion to each of your 'experts'!Casino_Royale said:Oh dear. Amber Rudd: "I urge people to look to the experts."
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Good moderation too. Just the right balance.0
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To be fair to Amber Rudd, she's trying to focus on Remain and ignore the party political attacks from her "allies".0
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Dave hitting the fags?Blueberry said:The Leavers are smashing this. They've gelled well. Better arguments, better jokes, great teamwork. Wouldn't like to be in the Remain dressing room after this one. Dave will be kicking the sandwiches around.
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Na, they band corporal punishment a while agoFrancisUrquhart said:
Dave hitting the fags?Blueberry said:The Leavers are smashing this. They've gelled well. Better arguments, better jokes, great teamwork. Wouldn't like to be in the Remain dressing room after this one. Dave will be kicking the sandwiches around.
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Boris good with a specific example cutting through the rhetoric0
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But she still couldn't resist a dig at Boris at the beginning.Casino_Royale said:To be fair to Amber Rudd, she's trying to focus on Remain and ignore the party political attacks from her "allies".
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In debates my experience is that we do rather tend to prefer those we agree with.
Television-less I am probably talking through my hat.
In any case doubt that anything from this debate would prompt me to take down my "Remain" sign, or any of a couple of dozen friends bar one to vote otherwise.0 -
Hitting the panic button at being outed over corruption!FrancisUrquhart said:
Dave hitting the fags?Blueberry said:The Leavers are smashing this. They've gelled well. Better arguments, better jokes, great teamwork. Wouldn't like to be in the Remain dressing room after this one. Dave will be kicking the sandwiches around.
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First mention of Wollaston.0
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Boris rising above "personal stuff".0
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One for the bingo cards
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Eagle just throwing insults around. Not a good look.0
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Sturgeon: "We don't get money back by not being in the EU"0
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More conferring on the Leave team.. the bloody cheats...0
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Great point from Gisela - a Labour MP - we have to be able to plan to make the NHS viable.0
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Gisella just owned the NHS argument.0
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Bastards using logic and facts!RobD said:More conferring on the Leave team.. the bloody cheats...
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I agree that leave are winning this at present0
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It's super effective.... /nerdmodeYossariansChild said:
Bastards using logic and facts!RobD said:More conferring on the Leave team.. the bloody cheats...
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Hmmm: they are not on the board of Genie Oil & Gas, they are 'strategic advisory board' members.hunchman said:Armstrong: "Overlooked part of Syria conflict is Genie Oil and all the oil found underneath the Golan Heights with Larry Summers and Dick Cheney on the board amongst others"
http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/03/pressure-building-golan-heights/
Genie Energy owns Genie Oil & Gas, which has a very modest ($8m of well costs in the first quarter) exploration programme in Northern Israel (aka the Golan Heights). They also have a Colorado Oil shale programme.
I know Noble Energy very well (which has the massive Leviathan gas field off-shore Israel), and have been an investor in another Israeli oil & gas company. (Via the always excellent Martin Molyneaux at First Energy.)
The Golan Heights and the rest of Northern Israel has seen lots of cores drilled over the years, and there's been a lot of seismic shot. While there is evidence of natural gas, I am told that the geology (it's been extremely well cooked) mean it's very unlikely there are commercial quantities of oil in the area. Tight natural gas formations are not something there is any particular shortage of at the moment.
Genie Energy has a market capitalisation of $178m. If you really believe that uncommercial quantities of natural gas (that will be competing with cheap CH4 molecules from the Leviathan field) are a goer, you are welcome to waste your money.0 -
Eh?????geoffw said:Sturgeon: "We don't get money back by not being in the EU"
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Turning into a rout here for Leave.0
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I'm cautious to write it down, but feeling more and more to me that Remain know this has slipped away and are trying to minimise the scale of the loss on the 23rd...YossariansChild said:Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.
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Just about to watch something good and interesting.. Peaky Blinders. I will be back...0
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Her hair looks greasy ..... not good.Razedabode said:Eagle just throwing insults around. Not a good look.
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Care to retract your allegation of me being naive regarding Wollaston/£350m dominating tonights debate?Big_G_NorthWales said:I agree that leave are winning this at present
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Gisela very good on NHS. Leadsom great on nonsense numbers.0
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Gisela and her 'German' English voice helps to give her greater credibility in this whole debate. Leadsom very authorative and impressive - how my estimation of her has grown over the past few weeks.0
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Ha Ha! Not a good move by Rudd to bring up bridge building!0
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Hm, that doesn't make sense. It's a binary outcome, so they should be going all out for a win, rather than trying to minimise anything.Mortimer said:
I'm cautious to write it down, but feeling more and more to me that Remain know this has slipped away and are trying to minimise the scale of the loss on the 23rd...YossariansChild said:Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.
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Much more fun than yet another EU debateBenedictWhite said:Just about to watch something good and interesting.. Peaky Blinders. I will be back...
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Yeah!!!!!!peter_from_putney said:
Eh?????geoffw said:Sturgeon: "We don't get money back by not being in the EU"
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I hate to kill the buzz, but remain will win. However, it's going to have dire aftershocks in the Tory party at the very least.Mortimer said:
I'm cautious to write it down, but feeling more and more to me that Remain know this has slipped away and are trying to minimise the scale of the loss on the 23rd...YossariansChild said:Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.
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Gisela is brilliant, far too good for Labour.0
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Great point Gisela over our car industry doing well because our cars our good. Common sense that the voters can easily relate to.0
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We need more polling. It's gone very quiet.Mortimer said:
I'm cautious to write it down, but feeling more and more to me that Remain know this has slipped away and are trying to minimise the scale of the loss on the 23rd...YossariansChild said:Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.
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Experts experts experts experts
Rudd.0 -
That was a great first half!0
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Angry Rudd is going to explode if we don't start listening to 'experts'0
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Leave 3 - 0 Remain.
Note the difference at the end - 3 Leave support each other Remain ignore each other.
Has Cameron chucked his mobile yet?0 -
What's Eagles doing? This isn't a GE, I can understand Sturgeon bashing Tories as she's got another agenda - but it's still daft.0
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Thanks rcs1000. I bow to your greater knowledge over this - I've been meaning to look into this and haven't had time thanks to being so tied up with that notorious address. I mean to have a look at it when I get chance.rcs1000 said:
Hmmm: they are not on the board of Genie Oil & Gas, they are 'strategic advisory board' members.hunchman said:Armstrong: "Overlooked part of Syria conflict is Genie Oil and all the oil found underneath the Golan Heights with Larry Summers and Dick Cheney on the board amongst others"
http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/03/pressure-building-golan-heights/
Genie Energy owns Genie Oil & Gas, which has a very modest ($8m of well costs in the first quarter) exploration programme in Northern Israel (aka the Golan Heights). They also have a Colorado Oil shale programme.
I know Noble Energy very well (which has the massive Leviathan gas field off-shore Israel), and have been an investor in another Israeli oil & gas company. (Via the always excellent Martin Molyneaux at First Energy.)
The Golan Heights and the rest of Northern Israel has seen lots of cores drilled over the years, and there's been a lot of seismic shot. While there is evidence of natural gas, I am told that the geology (it's been extremely well cooked) mean it's very unlikely there are commercial quantities of oil in the area. Tight natural gas formations are not something there is any particular shortage of at the moment.
Genie Energy has a market capitalisation of $178m. If you really believe that uncommercial quantities of natural gas (that will be competing with cheap CH4 molecules from the Leviathan field) are a goer, you are welcome to waste your money.0 -
See how much better it is once you remove Cameron from the equation
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The only interesting thing so far
Buy Amber
Sell Boris0 -
Roland's bridge building experts are yet to build one still standing, but they're the best we have and we should listen0
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Amber Rudd is a bit scary, without her it would be 5-0 leave. Eagles is just so horribly party political and Sturgeon can't hide her contempt for the UK.0
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She's playing the wise old mum routine superbly.tlg86 said:Gisela is brilliant, far too good for Labour.
Clearly a plan to get her to sum up.0 -
Appreciate your honesty, I do not have work to do so not watching it all.Big_G_NorthWales said:I agree that leave are winning this at present
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Somewhere Peter Mandelson is being restrained, shouting his desire to beat Angela Eagle with a set of jumper cables.0
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You may want to have a peak at the Guardian blog...
"Question 2 (Economy) - Snap verdict: The Remain team easily had the best on this topic. Eagle (who as shadow business secretary does this for her day job), Sturgeon and Rudd were all forceful and convincing, and Rudd deal with the “these experts backed the euro” claim effectively. Eagle’s jibe about Johnson’s ambitions was more successful than the one Rudd tried earlier, because in this context it seemed appropriate. The Leave participants quoted more figures, but their arguments about trade seemed arcane. Remain were fired up, but their passion sounded justified."0 -
I think Leave 2 (immigration, economy) Remain 1 (NHS) so far0
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For all the Stuart fans (I'm one too).. her upward trajectory may be difficult, especially given the membership:
*Voted for introducing student top-up fees
*Voted for Labour's anti-terrorism laws
*Voted for the Iraq war
*Voted against investigating the Iraq war
*Voted for replacing Trident0 -
Nice pen pix.YossariansChild said:
She's playing the wise old mum routine superbly.tlg86 said:Gisela is brilliant, far too good for Labour.
Clearly a plan to get her to sum up.0 -
Martin Molyneaux of First Energy probably knows more about the geology of Northern Israel than any man alive, and his advice helped make a lot of people a lot of money on Leviathan. If you want to talk to him, I can probably arrange a call, but my understanding is that any hydrocarbons locked under the Golan Heights have been too hot for too long, and therefore the long-chains (oil) have broken down into short-chains (natural gas).hunchman said:
Thanks rcs1000. I bow to your greater knowledge over this - I've been meaning to look into this and haven't had time thanks to being so tied up with that notorious address. I mean to have a look at i when I get chance.rcs1000 said:
Hmmm: they are not on the board of Genie Oil & Gas, they are 'strategic advisory board' members.hunchman said:Armstrong: "Overlooked part of Syria conflict is Genie Oil and all the oil found underneath the Golan Heights with Larry Summers and Dick Cheney on the board amongst others"
http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/03/pressure-building-golan-heights/
Genie Energy owns Genie Oil & Gas, which has a very modest ($8m of well costs in the first quarter) exploration programme in Northern Israel (aka the Golan Heights). They also have a Colorado Oil shale programme.
I know Noble Energy very well (which has the massive Leviathan gas field off-shore Israel), and have been an investor in another Israeli oil & gas company. (Via the always excellent Martin Molyneaux at First Energy.)
The Golan Heights and the rest of Northern Israel has seen lots of cores drilled over the years, and there's been a lot of seismic shot. While there is evidence of natural gas, I am told that the geology (it's been extremely well cooked) mean it's very unlikely there are commercial quantities of oil in the area. Tight natural gas formations are not something there is any particular shortage of at the moment.
Genie Energy has a market capitalisation of $178m. If you really believe that uncommercial quantities of natural gas (that will be competing with cheap CH4 molecules from the Leviathan field) are a goer, you are welcome to waste your money.0 -
As much as I want it to happen, anyone who seriously thinks Leave is going to win this referendum is too caught up in it all. Take a step back, and breathe.0
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Sturgeon going on about Toory governments again.0
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Sturgeon: "The EU protects Pensions" - I'll remember that quote to throw back at the remain camp once the sovereign debt crisis begins in earnest.0
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Great answer on women rights from Andrea Leadsom0
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I'm a die hard leaver, but I like Rudd's strength.0
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Leadsom reverted to using the £10bn a year net contribution figure. Fair enough, that's not in dispute.
Sturgeon tells a porky in response: "we get ten times as much back as we put in".
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and that's kind - of course she scores very well when taking PMQs instead of Corbyn, which illustrated just how poor he must be.Big_G_NorthWales said:Angela Eagle is hopeless
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They are not going to win, I am reacting to the debate tonight.KentRising said:As much as I want it to happen, anyone who seriously thinks Leave is going to win this referendum is too caught up in it all. Take a step back, and breathe.
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I think all, bar Boris and Eagle, are doing quite well.0
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Angela Eagle drops a clanger, name-dropping Barbara Castle only to be helpfully informed by Boris of her opposition to the Common Market!0
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Leadsom impressive on women's rights.0
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LITTLE ENGLAND!!!!!!!!!!10
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LITTLE ENGLAND KLAXON0
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Slight victory makes it much easier to find compromise..:RobD said:
Hm, that doesn't make sense. It's a binary outcome, so they should be going all out for a win, rather than trying to minimise anything.Mortimer said:
I'm cautious to write it down, but feeling more and more to me that Remain know this has slipped away and are trying to minimise the scale of the loss on the 23rd...YossariansChild said:Leave talking to the voters. Remain talking to their supporters.
To be fair to Rudd, she is trying to be patriotic - but is hectoring...0 -
Little England. Blimey, cultural imperialism is the policy of Remain.0
This discussion has been closed.