politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -

YossariansChild said:

Leave 1 - 0 after first question.

That was only question 1?

Danny565 said:

I have to admit, I do wonder if the meme that the £350m line is a "lie" might really damage the Leave Campaign (sticking to the real figure of £200m or whatever it is would've been damaging enough).

I dunno. I wonder how many people understand the gross/net thing? I can imagine some people not being impressed with Remain being outraged about Leave using the gross figure and by association condoning the net figure.

Eagle and Sturgeon going down very badly with the other half.

chestnut said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Amber Rudd for next Tory leader!

She's awful.

the public really won't take to her. Leadsom is bossing this. Eagle struggling to remember her lines! car crash!

Andrea Leadstrom is making a political future here. Angela Eagle not so much.

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

Eagle got a good hit in: "get that lie off your bus"

First applause from the audience

Ah, I post something 'positive' for Remain, and up you pop.

Why not - I would concede leave are better on this part but their problem that keeps haunting them is the 350 million lie splashed for all to see on the bus

chestnut said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Amber Rudd for next Tory leader!

She's awful.

What else have they had since Major?

YossariansChild said:

Andrea Leadstrom is making a political future here. Angela Eagle not so much.

Angela Eagle is very poor

tlg86 said:

Danny565 said:

I have to admit, I do wonder if the meme that the £350m line is a "lie" might really damage the Leave Campaign (sticking to the real figure of £200m or whatever it is would've been damaging enough).

I dunno. I wonder how many people understand the gross/net thing? I can imagine some people not being impressed with Remain being outraged about Leave using the gross figure and by association condoning the net figure.

I think Andrea Leadsom explained it well.

tlg86 said:

Danny565 said:

I have to admit, I do wonder if the meme that the £350m line is a "lie" might really damage the Leave Campaign (sticking to the real figure of £200m or whatever it is would've been damaging enough).

I dunno. I wonder how many people understand the gross/net thing? I can imagine some people not being impressed with Remain being outraged about Leave using the gross figure and by association condoning the net figure.

I don't think, if it is to have an impact, that details like gross or net will come into it. If what people take in is 'X says it is 350, but Y says it is really 200, that's still way too much' it won't do leave that much harm. If that takeaway is 'X says it is 350, but apparently that's not true' then it may do harm, even though it means basically the same thing. It's a question of if people accept the claim is not correct and then whether they care more about how what it is is too much or that they were misled.

Not near a telly.

Has Nicola said "Little Englander" yet?

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

Danny565 said:

I have to admit, I do wonder if the meme that the £350m line is a "lie" might really damage the Leave Campaign (sticking to the real figure of £200m or whatever it is would've been damaging enough).

I dunno. I wonder how many people understand the gross/net thing? I can imagine some people not being impressed with Remain being outraged about Leave using the gross figure and by association condoning the net figure.

I don't think, if it is to have an impact, that details like gross or net will come into it. If what people take in is 'X says it is 350, but Y says it is really 200, that's still way too much' it won't do leave that much harm. If that takeaway is 'X says it is 350, but apparently that's not true' then it may do harm, even though it means basically the same thing. It's a question of if people accept the claim is not correct and then whether they care more about how what it is is too much or that they were misled.

I don't think people are going to follow the intricacies of whether it's a gross or net figure - but I do think it's possible the perception that they're "lying" might cut through, and that thereafter people would disregard ANYTHING they say about the cost of the EU (even if they revised it to a lower figure) as not to be trusted on the topic.

Leave looking safe and secure. Remain ranty heckling.

Gisela superb - calm, measured, wise.

Amber Rudd far too bossy. Angela Eagle is out of her depth. Nicola Sturgeon looks like she has arrived at the wrong party.

RobD said:

Razedabode said:

I like Leadsom and Stuart. There's irony in Sturgeon lecturing the country to stay shackled to Europe.

Leadsom vs. Stuart at GE 2020 post Leave?

Oh that would be great!

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just imagine if you taking part in a drinking game every time they said 'Take control'

I find it among the better approaches of Leave, personally, so even if overdone I find that encouraging.

It's the new 'Long Term Economic Plan'

YossariansChild said:

RobD said:

Razedabode said:

I like Leadsom and Stuart. There's irony in Sturgeon lecturing the country to stay shackled to Europe.

Leadsom vs. Stuart at GE 2020 post Leave?

Oh that would be great!

We have a German monarch, only fair to have a German PM

Yay for George Osborne, Andrea Leadsom of Leave just manufacturing has never been stronger in the UK

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yay for George Osborne, Andrea Leadsom of Leave just manufacturing has never been stronger in the UK

Economic and strategic genius? Is that even humanly possible?

Eagle pointing like nails down the blackboard.

YossariansChild said:

RobD said:

YossariansChild said:

RobD said:

Razedabode said:

I like Leadsom and Stuart. There's irony in Sturgeon lecturing the country to stay shackled to Europe.

Leadsom vs. Stuart at GE 2020 post Leave?

Oh that would be great!

We have a German monarch, only fair to have a German PM

With a Turkish Foreign Sec...

Rainbow coalition!

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

Danny565 said:

I have to admit, I do wonder if the meme that the £350m line is a "lie" might really damage the Leave Campaign (sticking to the real figure of £200m or whatever it is would've been damaging enough).

I dunno. I wonder how many people understand the gross/net thing? I can imagine some people not being impressed with Remain being outraged about Leave using the gross figure and by association condoning the net figure.

I don't think, if it is to have an impact, that details like gross or net will come into it. If what people take in is 'X says it is 350, but Y says it is really 200, that's still way too much' it won't do leave that much harm. If that takeaway is 'X says it is 350, but apparently that's not true' then it may do harm, even though it means basically the same thing. It's a question of if people accept the claim is not correct and then whether they care more about how what it is is too much or that they were misled.

What's worse - Leave being a bit economical with the whole truth, or Remain basically saying that £200m a week is no big deal?

The big question indeed. I think Danny565 is right to flag up the potential risk of such a strategy, although I think they'll get away with it. Dislike of giving anything to the EU may overcome dislike of misleading statements.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just imagine if you taking part in a drinking game every time they said 'Take control'

I find it among the better approaches of Leave, personally, so even if overdone I find that encouraging.

It's the new 'Long Term Economic Plan'

Oh goody.

Boris lays the smack down on Nicola.

Nicola's references to Whoppers are surely product placement for Burger King?

Project fear Valkyries on the retreat.

Eagle needs to go home

Eagle is clueless - she knows little about the economics of the situation.

good comeback by Boris, good speed of thought to avoid looking like a mug.

Audience egging Boris on....

Remain are not having a good debate so far.

Amber and Andrea are above the rest.

peter_from_putney said:

BenedictWhite said:

FPT at the request of PTP from @CasinoRoyale
John_M said:
» show previous quotes
Well, given that the front page of the report acknowledged that it was funded by the ESRC through the 'UK in a changing Europe', it's at least a point.

I think we'll have to disagree; it doesn't quantify the risks in any meaningful way, lay reader or not. It just asserts there are risks.

I don't have a particular issue with the IFS report per se. My concern is that modelling has an inglorious record (to save others trawling through the report, the forecasts for Britains GDP in 2030 range from -9.5% to +0.6% compared to noBrexit, ie the opportunity cost ranges from ~.75% p.a. to very slightly positive). If financial models were better, I'd have more confidence in them.
The intro tickled me where he basically says we all got the 2008 crash wrong, but we all agree now, so listen to us this time.

Paul Johnson has spent his whole career in the civil service, think-tanks, or academia, including several big papers during the New Labour years.

I'm not saying he's been bought, or paid for, but that does breed a certain kind of thinking. And the IFS, in particular, has a real hold over Government, despite reaching questionable conclusions in the past. For example, it has came out basically saying marriage doesn't matter a few years ago.

The Spectator was right in 2011:

"There is no great conspiracy here, but a simple truth: organisations which rely on tax money will always make the case for higher taxes. The ‘institutes’ funded by research grants
(which means, usually, tax money) will always argue for more expensive meddling by the state. These groups dislike the idea that society will be better and stronger if people are given greater freedom, and allowed to keep more of their money. Freedom, to the institutes, is messy and chaotic. There must be projects, judged by complicated spreadsheets, with billions in taxpayers’ money behind them.

The most striking example is the Institute for Fiscal Studies. It has tremendous influence over government life, and in the era where Gordon Brown was concealing basic facts from the people whose money he was spending, it was relied upon to give a clearer picture. But the sheer volume and quality of its reports gave it power over the government that is not, even now, understood. Its device for measuring poverty — to calculate how many millions were above and below a ‘poverty line’ — took over the entire debate. Instead of tackling poverty, Brown tried to manipulate the IFS spreadsheets, so those just beneath the poverty line could be nudged above it and described as being ‘lifted out of poverty’. Those affected would be amazed to find themselves so described."

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2011/07/leading-article-the-power-of-ideas/

Benedict .... that's £1 you owe the PB.com Social Fund. Sadly PTP appears to be long gone, but then you never know, maybe he will return - hope so.

Sorry, I meant PfP not PTP.... My bad. Do you owe £1 if he returns.

All Nicola has to do is utter those two little words... "Little Englander"

Come on Nicola you know you want to...

Some have mentioned Amber Rudd as successor to Cameron.
Can't see it myself.
Andrea Leadsom however ...

Betfair static.

Remain 1.34 at 8pm. Still 1.34 now.

PlatoSaid said:

Very surprised by Remain - they sound rattled and rude.

There is clearly something weird going on with those in the Remain camp. It could just be they expected to be 10-15% ahead by now and it is actually really tight. Or maybe private polling showing something else.

Here we go again, Eagle just bashing the Tories.

Oh dear. Angela is attacking the Tories.

Casino_Royale said:

Remain are not having a good debate so far.

I don't know exactly why it is, but I and virtually everyone I've spoken to (admittedly virtually 100% English) has a problem with Nicola Sturgeon. I suspect she's a liability to the REMAIN cause on a programme such as this.

Remain talking party politics. Leave talking the countries future.