politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe: The final countdown, Sixteen days to go
Comments
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How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.0 -
Was Ken Livingstone busy? Perhaps his new gig with Jezza's favourite newspaper the Morning Star is keeping him occupied...not the sort of occupied France was by Hitler...TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.0 -
Oh God.TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.0 -
Why don't you just pick it when he is champaign socialising?blackburn63 said:
I'll pick a fight with champagne socialists any day. Roger saw who'd posted about Peston and waded in without thinking.BenedictWhite said:
I don't think so. I think you're picking a fight where none need exist.blackburn63 said:
Nope, I remarked that the poor man looked terribly ill, have a read.BenedictWhite said:
No, someone asked why Peston looked bad... Roger answered pointing out the bleeding obvious.blackburn63 said:
Maybe? We all know his wife died ffs.Roger said:
His wife died and he's working for a crap TV station. Maybe?blackburn63 said:Re tonight's programme, debating who won or lost is futile, we all made up our mind beforehand. But that wide eyed look that Cameron has when dealing with questions from the audience - he's done, gone, a shot fighter.
btw did you see Peston? The poor man looks terribly ill.
You really are a despicable person.
Is there a problem with that?
Roger's reply was, at best, crass. I was banned for calling him a fuckin idiot a couple of days ago, he's actually far worse than that, he's intelligent, which makes him malicious.
He;s an ad man, full of bullshit, he knows he fucked up.0 -
That's not actually the worst idea. Gordon's SindyRef speech genuinely brought a lump to my throat. People might just trust the man who saved the world to foretell its doom.TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.0 -
Does anybody remember when PB Tories used to mock Labour for hating a leader who gave them a majority0
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Here's something about Lord Hayward (the guy who is supposedly calling the referendum for LEAVE tomorrow) from January 2015
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/01/will-the-shy-tories-clinch-another-general-election.html
Looks like he's got a decent record...
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Cameron had a perfect script from Harold Wilson in 1975. He maintained a dignified detachment and intervened to good effect only in the final week of the campaign. Cameron ignored this, went for overkill and risks becoming a faintly absurd figure.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)0 -
He's going to be Cameron's Blücher once again.FrancisUrquhart said:
Was Ken Livingstone busy?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.0 -
Tanquillizer wearing off?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
He's a friend of PB and Mike knows him quite well.GIN1138 said:Here's something about Lord Hayward (the guy who is supposedly calling the referendum for LEAVE tomorrow) from January 2015
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/01/will-the-shy-tories-clinch-another-general-election.html
Looks like he's got a decent record...0 -
You obviously have a problem with me. For the record no malice was intended to you or Peston. It was just my best guessblackburn63 said:
I'll pick a fight with champagne socialists any day. Roger saw who'd posted about Peston and waded in without thinking.BenedictWhite said:
I don't think so. I think you're picking a fight where none need exist.blackburn63 said:
Nope, I remarked that the poor man looked terribly ill, have a read.BenedictWhite said:
No, someone asked why Peston looked bad... Roger answered pointing out the bleeding obvious.blackburn63 said:
Maybe? We all know his wife died ffs.Roger said:
His wife died and he's working for a crap TV station. Maybe?blackburn63 said:Re tonight's programme, debating who won or lost is futile, we all made up our mind beforehand. But that wide eyed look that Cameron has when dealing with questions from the audience - he's done, gone, a shot fighter.
btw did you see Peston? The poor man looks terribly ill.
You really are a despicable person.
Is there a problem with that?
Roger's reply was, at best, crass. I was banned for calling him a fuckin idiot a couple of days ago, he's actually far worse than that, he's intelligent, which makes him malicious.
He;s an ad man, full of bullshit, he knows he fucked up.0 -
What to make of anything Dan Hannan says? Bollocks!0
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I have my own opinions but I offer my opinions as you know and not financial advice.Pulpstar said:
Any stock tips Hunchman, or is quadruple witching hour approachinghunchman said:
Splendid question! The share price peaked at 411p on the 17th February 2012, and you may wish to have a look for yourself in the following accounts when surprise surprise many of the share options were exercised just for starters:MP_SE said:
Why did GKP's share price tank? I thought they could extract oil despite the troubles in the region. I remember when it was around £1 now it is £0.04...hunchman said:Some interesting information on Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. Didn't the MP for Stratford-on-Avon join as chief strategy officer?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/24/tory-mp-nadhim-zahawi-lands-job-with-oil-firm-gulf-keystone
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GKP.L&display=discussion&id=11625259&action=detail
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/05288855/filing-history
and private investors in M&G have lost out on this company:
http://www.shareprophets.com/views/20029/gulf-keystone-morons-what-was-that-you-were-saying-about-institutional-backing-mg-dumps-its-shares
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Well as I said below, I'm working tirelessly on 788 790 Finchley Road - I must admit that it has become something of an addictive obsession - some people find paperwork and company accounts to go through very boring, but my dad was an accountant so I hope given my upbringing I know what to look for.
If you took a look at Gulf Keystone Petroleum (UK) Ltd, you'll notice that its parent company is in Bermuda, and in their accounts the turnover has gradually decreased from £10m in 2011/12 to £6.5m for the last set of accounts, and if you look in the notes to the accounts there is absolutely no notes about the turnover whatsoever, and yet there are notes on things of a much less material value!0 -
Mike S is very well connected... You'll have to see if you can get an inside scoope from Lord H on his Brexit forecast.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's a friend of PB and Mike knows him quite well.GIN1138 said:Here's something about Lord Hayward (the guy who is supposedly calling the referendum for LEAVE tomorrow) from January 2015
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/01/will-the-shy-tories-clinch-another-general-election.html
Looks like he's got a decent record...
Meanwhile. what we wouldn't all give to have a really good gander at Jack's ARSE right about now!
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I'll drop them all an email and see what's going on.GIN1138 said:
Mike S is very well connected... You'll have to see if you can get an inside scope from Lord H on his Brexit forecast.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's a friend of PB and Mike knows him quite well.GIN1138 said:Here's something about Lord Hayward (the guy who is supposedly calling the referendum for LEAVE tomorrow) from January 2015
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/01/will-the-shy-tories-clinch-another-general-election.html
Looks like he's got a decent record...
Meanwhile. what we wouldn't all give to have a really good gander at Jack's ARSE right about now!0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll drop them all an email and see what's going on.GIN1138 said:
Mike S is very well connected... You'll have to see if you can get an inside scope from Lord H on his Brexit forecast.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's a friend of PB and Mike knows him quite well.GIN1138 said:Here's something about Lord Hayward (the guy who is supposedly calling the referendum for LEAVE tomorrow) from January 2015
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/01/will-the-shy-tories-clinch-another-general-election.html
Looks like he's got a decent record...
Meanwhile. what we wouldn't all give to have a really good gander at Jack's ARSE right about now!
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I've never met you. But I have read your posts, your suggestion that Leavers are the Jeremy Kyle audience, that we face penury if we Leave, and that advertising is little to do with truth but all about perception.Roger said:
You obviously have a problem with me. For the record no malice was intended to you or Peston. It was just my best guessblackburn63 said:
I'll pick a fight with champagne socialists any day. Roger saw who'd posted about Peston and waded in without thinking.BenedictWhite said:
I don't think so. I think you're picking a fight where none need exist.blackburn63 said:
Nope, I remarked that the poor man looked terribly ill, have a read.BenedictWhite said:
No, someone asked why Peston looked bad... Roger answered pointing out the bleeding obvious.blackburn63 said:
Maybe? We all know his wife died ffs.Roger said:
His wife died and he's working for a crap TV station. Maybe?blackburn63 said:Re tonight's programme, debating who won or lost is futile, we all made up our mind beforehand. But that wide eyed look that Cameron has when dealing with questions from the audience - he's done, gone, a shot fighter.
btw did you see Peston? The poor man looks terribly ill.
You really are a despicable person.
Is there a problem with that?
Roger's reply was, at best, crass. I was banned for calling him a fuckin idiot a couple of days ago, he's actually far worse than that, he's intelligent, which makes him malicious.
He;s an ad man, full of bullshit, he knows he fucked up.
All posted from the French Riviera.
I've got your measure and you know it, you're a nasty piece of work.0 -
People said Cameron was crazy for constantly saying he could win a majority......PeterC said:
Cameron had a perfect script from Harold Wilson in 1975. He maintained a dignified detachment and intervened to good effect only in the final week of the campaign. Cameron ignored this, went for overkill and risks becoming a faintly absurd figure.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)0 -
Lord Hayward. I have his email somewhere.GIN1138 said:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll drop them all an email and see what's going on.GIN1138 said:
Mike S is very well connected... You'll have to see if you can get an inside scope from Lord H on his Brexit forecast.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's a friend of PB and Mike knows him quite well.GIN1138 said:Here's something about Lord Hayward (the guy who is supposedly calling the referendum for LEAVE tomorrow) from January 2015
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/01/will-the-shy-tories-clinch-another-general-election.html
Looks like he's got a decent record...
Meanwhile. what we wouldn't all give to have a really good gander at Jack's ARSE right about now!
I'll ask Mike to ring Jack tomorrow to see how the old rogue is.0 -
Roger is a fellow "Casablanca" fan so he's not all bad!blackburn63 said:
I've never met you. But I have read your posts, your suggestion that Leavers are the Jeremy Kyle audience, that we face penury if we Leave, and that advertising is little to do with truth but all about perception.Roger said:
You obviously have a problem with me. For the record no malice was intended to you or Peston. It was just my best guessblackburn63 said:
I'll pick a fight with champagne socialists any day. Roger saw who'd posted about Peston and waded in without thinking.BenedictWhite said:
I don't think so. I think you're picking a fight where none need exist.blackburn63 said:
Nope, I remarked that the poor man looked terribly ill, have a read.BenedictWhite said:
No, someone asked why Peston looked bad... Roger answered pointing out the bleeding obvious.blackburn63 said:
Maybe? We all know his wife died ffs.Roger said:
His wife died and he's working for a crap TV station. Maybe?blackburn63 said:Re tonight's programme, debating who won or lost is futile, we all made up our mind beforehand. But that wide eyed look that Cameron has when dealing with questions from the audience - he's done, gone, a shot fighter.
btw did you see Peston? The poor man looks terribly ill.
You really are a despicable person.
Is there a problem with that?
Roger's reply was, at best, crass. I was banned for calling him a fuckin idiot a couple of days ago, he's actually far worse than that, he's intelligent, which makes him malicious.
He;s an ad man, full of bullshit, he knows he fucked up.
All posted from the French Riviera.
I've got your measure and you know it, you're a nasty piece of work. 0 -
Would be nice to know how Jack's doing.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hayward. I have his email somewhere.GIN1138 said:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll drop them all an email and see what's going on.GIN1138 said:
Mike S is very well connected... You'll have to see if you can get an inside scope from Lord H on his Brexit forecast.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's a friend of PB and Mike knows him quite well.GIN1138 said:Here's something about Lord Hayward (the guy who is supposedly calling the referendum for LEAVE tomorrow) from January 2015
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/01/will-the-shy-tories-clinch-another-general-election.html
Looks like he's got a decent record...
Meanwhile. what we wouldn't all give to have a really good gander at Jack's ARSE right about now!
I'll ask Mike to ring Jack tomorrow to see how the old rogue is.0 -
Probably unchanged - a poor one hour Q&A session with the protagonists kept apart and a nerdy, self-opinionated audience, who mostly refused to be shut up.blackburn63 said:
How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.
Anyway, probably something like 90% of likely voters have now made up their minds.
REMAIN must surely be taking comfort from the hundreds of thousands of mainly young voters who have registered in the last few days .... they might just make the difference in REMAIN's favour.0 -
Somebody wants £15k at 2/5 on betfair. Hills in Leeds will take it.0
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Just have a look at the Aussie scorecard from the Saffers v Aussies one dayer (is on Sky Sports 3 now)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/ECKP909320 -
Very interesting re: Lord Hayward.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hayward. I have his email somewhere.GIN1138 said:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll drop them all an email and see what's going on.GIN1138 said:
Mike S is very well connected... You'll have to see if you can get an inside scope from Lord H on his Brexit forecast.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's a friend of PB and Mike knows him quite well.GIN1138 said:Here's something about Lord Hayward (the guy who is supposedly calling the referendum for LEAVE tomorrow) from January 2015
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/01/will-the-shy-tories-clinch-another-general-election.html
Looks like he's got a decent record...
Meanwhile. what we wouldn't all give to have a really good gander at Jack's ARSE right about now!
I'll ask Mike to ring Jack tomorrow to see how the old rogue is.
Had a look at Matt Singh and his number crunching politics website tonight - can't say that his methods were very clear to arrive at a 54/46 remain win.
Will be interested to know the number of people that registered before the deadline tonight ASAP.0 -
Don't be so cheeky.GIN1138 said:
Mike S is very well connected... You'll have to see if you can get an inside scoope from Lord H on his Brexit forecast.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's a friend of PB and Mike knows him quite well.GIN1138 said:Here's something about Lord Hayward (the guy who is supposedly calling the referendum for LEAVE tomorrow) from January 2015
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/01/will-the-shy-tories-clinch-another-general-election.html
Looks like he's got a decent record...
Meanwhile. what we wouldn't all give to have a really good gander at Jack's ARSE right about now!0 -
Unless they're all those pesky WWC voters..peter_from_putney said:
Probably unchanged - a poor one hour Q&A session with the protagonists kept apart and a nerdy, self-opinionated audience, who mostly refused to be shut up.blackburn63 said:
How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.
Anyway, probably something like 90% of likely voters have now made up their minds.
REMAIN must surely be taking comfort from the hundreds of thousands of mainly young voters who have registered in the last few days .... they might just make the difference in REMAIN's favour.
I'd be interested to see registrations by area.0 -
EFTA/EEA — probably what he's wanted all along?Chris_A said:What to make of anything Dan Hannan says? Bollocks!
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Trump is due to make a statement at 9pm Eastern. There is a teleprompter set up on the platform, rare for Trump, so it should be interesting, as it implies prepared remarks.0
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Clearly a cracking wicket....Sir Geoffrey would have loved a bat on it.TheScreamingEagles said:Just have a look at the Aussie scorecard from the Saffers v Aussies one dayer (is on Sky Sports 3 now)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/ECKP909320 -
I believe figures have been published by the electoral authorities (name?), providing details of the numbers who are newly registered for each of the age bands and these have been absolutely dominated by the youngest such band. Not altogether surprising that there has been such a large last minute rush, bearing in mind the way the establishment BBC has been carpet-bombing the Tuesday deadline across all its networks.BenedictWhite said:
Unless they're all those pesky WWC voters..peter_from_putney said:
Probably unchanged - a poor one hour Q&A session with the protagonists kept apart and a nerdy, self-opinionated audience, who mostly refused to be shut up.blackburn63 said:
How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.
Anyway, probably something like 90% of likely voters have now made up their minds.
REMAIN must surely be taking comfort from the hundreds of thousands of mainly young voters who have registered in the last few days .... they might just make the difference in REMAIN's favour.
I'd be interested to see registrations by area.0 -
Check out P3 of this pdf (numbered P2 of the doc).RoyalBlue said:
Can somebody confirm this either way please?Bob__Sykes said:
Does that answer the question though? A declaration will be made for each of the 12 regions but surely the results from the 382 local counts will emerge and be totted up by broadcasters won't they? If not, I'll probably go to bed at 10 and set the alarm for 3.30am. How would the broadcasters fill the time?surbiton said:
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-referendums/final-eu-referendum-result-will-be-declared-in-manchester-as-electoral-commission-partners-with-manchester-city-council-for-historic-eventAlistair said:How is the referendum count going to be reported, is it going to be by council area or constituency or what?
The suggestion is that local declarations are allowed once the RCO has approved the (local) figures. I'm not sure who'll be there to cheer some of them, mind you! There's also a link to a spreadsheet of estimated (local) count times.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/206113/Media-briefing-EU-Referendum-count-processes-and-results.pdf
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Does he still do the pitch reviews where he tampers with the wicket with his car-keys in plain sight?FrancisUrquhart said:
Clearly a cracking wicket....Sir Geoffrey would have loved a bat on it.TheScreamingEagles said:Just have a look at the Aussie scorecard from the Saffers v Aussies one dayer (is on Sky Sports 3 now)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/ECKP909320 -
I meant geographical areas.peter_from_putney said:
I believe figures have been published by the electoral authorities (name?), providing details of the numbers who are newly registered for each of the age bands and these have been absolutely dominated by the youngest such band. Not altogether surprising that there has been such a large last minute rush, bearing in mind the way the establishment BBC has been carpet-bombing the Tuesday deadline across all its networks.BenedictWhite said:
Unless they're all those pesky WWC voters..peter_from_putney said:
Probably unchanged - a poor one hour Q&A session with the protagonists kept apart and a nerdy, self-opinionated audience, who mostly refused to be shut up.blackburn63 said:
How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.
Anyway, probably something like 90% of likely voters have now made up their minds.
REMAIN must surely be taking comfort from the hundreds of thousands of mainly young voters who have registered in the last few days .... they might just make the difference in REMAIN's favour.
I'd be interested to see registrations by area.0 -
Maybe a Veep announcement which he needs to get absolutely spot on?Tim_B said:Trump is due to make a statement at 9pm Eastern. There is a teleprompter set up on the platform, rare for Trump, so it should be interesting, as it implies prepared remarks.
Nah .... probably not.0 -
I don't believe those details have been published .... but it might be worth checking on the electoral thingybob's website.BenedictWhite said:
I meant geographical areas.peter_from_putney said:
I believe figures have been published by the electoral authorities (name?), providing details of the numbers who are newly registered for each of the age bands and these have been absolutely dominated by the youngest such band. Not altogether surprising that there has been such a large last minute rush, bearing in mind the way the establishment BBC has been carpet-bombing the Tuesday deadline across all its networks.BenedictWhite said:
Unless they're all those pesky WWC voters..peter_from_putney said:
Probably unchanged - a poor one hour Q&A session with the protagonists kept apart and a nerdy, self-opinionated audience, who mostly refused to be shut up.blackburn63 said:
How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.
Anyway, probably something like 90% of likely voters have now made up their minds.
REMAIN must surely be taking comfort from the hundreds of thousands of mainly young voters who have registered in the last few days .... they might just make the difference in REMAIN's favour.
I'd be interested to see registrations by area.0 -
Whilst wearing his spikes!williamglenn said:
Does he still do the pitch reviews where he tampers with the wicket with his car-keys in plain sight?FrancisUrquhart said:
Clearly a cracking wicket....Sir Geoffrey would have loved a bat on it.TheScreamingEagles said:Just have a look at the Aussie scorecard from the Saffers v Aussies one dayer (is on Sky Sports 3 now)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/ECKP909320 -
We used to have quite a lot of posts in which posters gave their opinions of each other. It gradually dawned on us all that it's a bit of a waste of time for anonymous poster X to tell us how much they dislike anonymous poster Y, so most of us stopped. You might think of doing the same? Your views on the EU etc. are genuinely interesting; those on other posters, not so much.blackburn63 said:
I've got your measure and you know it, you're a nasty piece of work.0 -
I don't think that there are lots of suddenly enthused young remainers is all... So it would be interesting to see where they are.peter_from_putney said:
I don't believe those details have been published .... but it might be worth checking on the electoral thingybob's website.BenedictWhite said:
I meant geographical areas.peter_from_putney said:
I believe figures have been published by the electoral authorities (name?), providing details of the numbers who are newly registered for each of the age bands and these have been absolutely dominated by the youngest such band. Not altogether surprising that there has been such a large last minute rush, bearing in mind the way the establishment BBC has been carpet-bombing the Tuesday deadline across all its networks.BenedictWhite said:
Unless they're all those pesky WWC voters..peter_from_putney said:
Probably unchanged - a poor one hour Q&A session with the protagonists kept apart and a nerdy, self-opinionated audience, who mostly refused to be shut up.blackburn63 said:
How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.
Anyway, probably something like 90% of likely voters have now made up their minds.
REMAIN must surely be taking comfort from the hundreds of thousands of mainly young voters who have registered in the last few days .... they might just make the difference in REMAIN's favour.
I'd be interested to see registrations by area.0 -
Are we about to get a whole series of exit polls from the US primaries?
Shame that just about all the PBers have now gone to bed, except for you of course Nick - I've been expecting you to make an appearance anytime around now.
Speaking of which, where's Rod?0 -
Puzzle time.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like...0 -
You wouldn't think so, but then the same probably applies to young would be LEAVERS. The fact is that hundreds of thousands have registered over the past few days and having done so, one has to assume that they intend to vote (if they remember that is).BenedictWhite said:
I don't think that there are lots of suddenly enthused young remainers is all... So it would be interesting to see where they are.peter_from_putney said:
I don't believe those details have been published .... but it might be worth checking on the electoral thingybob's website.BenedictWhite said:
I meant geographical areas.peter_from_putney said:
I believe figures have been published by the electoral authorities (name?), providing details of the numbers who are newly registered for each of the age bands and these have been absolutely dominated by the youngest such band. Not altogether surprising that there has been such a large last minute rush, bearing in mind the way the establishment BBC has been carpet-bombing the Tuesday deadline across all its networks.BenedictWhite said:
Unless they're all those pesky WWC voters..peter_from_putney said:
Probably unchanged - a poor one hour Q&A session with the protagonists kept apart and a nerdy, self-opinionated audience, who mostly refused to be shut up.blackburn63 said:
How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.
Anyway, probably something like 90% of likely voters have now made up their minds.
REMAIN must surely be taking comfort from the hundreds of thousands of mainly young voters who have registered in the last few days .... they might just make the difference in REMAIN's favour.
I'd be interested to see registrations by area.0 -
Hello Rod, fancy you turning up like that, right on cue.RodCrosby said:Puzzle time.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like...
Since it seems to be just you and me, I'll venture a guess to your puzzle ..... a run of 33 tails ....am I close?0 -
Trump's making sure that Hilary doesn't get proper coverage tomorrow for clinching the nomination. Say what you will about the content of his campaign, but his media strategy is in a class of its own.peter_from_putney said:
Maybe a Veep announcement which he needs to get absolutely spot on?Tim_B said:Trump is due to make a statement at 9pm Eastern. There is a teleprompter set up on the platform, rare for Trump, so it should be interesting, as it implies prepared remarks.
Nah .... probably not.
It will be interesting to compare and contrast the headlines Trump gets for whatever he says this evening with David Cameron's extraordinary press conference this morning in which he narrowly avoided calling fellow cabinet ministers liars. I only saw a cursory soundbite on the early evening news, by 10pm the ITV "debate" had drowned out the coverage from the morning.0 -
That was stopped a long long time ago - over 20 years ago IIRC when cricket was free to air on the BBC!williamglenn said:
Does he still do the pitch reviews where he tampers with the wicket with his car-keys in plain sight?FrancisUrquhart said:
Clearly a cracking wicket....Sir Geoffrey would have loved a bat on it.TheScreamingEagles said:Just have a look at the Aussie scorecard from the Saffers v Aussies one dayer (is on Sky Sports 3 now)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/ECKP90932
It was good while it lasted!0 -
I'll take that as your answer to b) for biased to tails. What about biased to heads? Just give an interval [x,y] for non-biased.peter_from_putney said:
Hello Rod, fancy you turning up like that, right on cue.RodCrosby said:Puzzle time.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like...
Since it seems to be just you and me, I'll venture a guess to your puzzle ..... a run of 33 tails ....am I close?
What about the answer to a)?0 -
I should know this and I don't. Go on, embarrass me.RodCrosby said:Puzzle time.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like...0 -
New Jersey 1% in
Dems
Clinton 54%
Sanders 46%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nj/Dem
GOP
Trump 82%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nj/Rep0 -
Embarrass yourself. Take a guess. (^_-)viewcode said:
I should know this and I don't. Go on, embarrass me.RodCrosby said:Puzzle time.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like...0 -
a) No.RodCrosby said:
I'll take that as your answer to b) for biased to tails. What about biased to heads? Just give an interval [x,y] for non-biased.peter_from_putney said:
Hello Rod, fancy you turning up like that, right on cue.RodCrosby said:Puzzle time.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like...
Since it seems to be just you and me, I'll venture a guess to your puzzle ..... a run of 33 tails ....am I close?
What about the answer to a)?
b) A run of 33 of either heads OR tails to be able to conclude that the coin is biased one way or another.0 -
It will be interesting to see if anyone can figure out which way they voted.peter_from_putney said:
You wouldn't think so, but then the same probably applies to young would be LEAVERS. The fact is that hundreds of thousands have registered over the past few days and having done so, one has to assume that they intend to vote (if they remember that is).BenedictWhite said:
I don't think that there are lots of suddenly enthused young remainers is all... So it would be interesting to see where they are.peter_from_putney said:
I don't believe those details have been published .... but it might be worth checking on the electoral thingybob's website.BenedictWhite said:
I meant geographical areas.peter_from_putney said:
I believe figures have been published by the electoral authorities (name?), providing details of the numbers who are newly registered for each of the age bands and these have been absolutely dominated by the youngest such band. Not altogether surprising that there has been such a large last minute rush, bearing in mind the way the establishment BBC has been carpet-bombing the Tuesday deadline across all its networks.BenedictWhite said:
Unless they're all those pesky WWC voters..peter_from_putney said:
Probably unchanged - a poor one hour Q&A session with the protagonists kept apart and a nerdy, self-opinionated audience, who mostly refused to be shut up.blackburn63 said:
How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.
Anyway, probably something like 90% of likely voters have now made up their minds.
REMAIN must surely be taking comfort from the hundreds of thousands of mainly young voters who have registered in the last few days .... they might just make the difference in REMAIN's favour.
I'd be interested to see registrations by area.
There are lots of disaffected voters out there, some of whom have been enthused by UKIP and some enthused the other way.0 -
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/739714306497974272peter_from_putney said:
You wouldn't think so, but then the same probably applies to young would be LEAVERS. The fact is that hundreds of thousands have registered over the past few days and having done so, one has to assume that they intend to vote (if they remember that is).BenedictWhite said:
I don't think that there are lots of suddenly enthused young remainers is all... So it would be interesting to see where they are.peter_from_putney said:
I don't believe those details have been published .... but it might be worth checking on the electoral thingybob's website.BenedictWhite said:
I meant geographical areas.peter_from_putney said:
I believe figures have been published by the electoral authorities (name?), providing details of the numbers who are newly registered for each of the age bands and these have been absolutely dominated by the youngest such band. Not altogether surprising that there has been such a large last minute rush, bearing in mind the way the establishment BBC has been carpet-bombing the Tuesday deadline across all its networks.BenedictWhite said:
Unless they're all those pesky WWC voters..peter_from_putney said:
Probably unchanged - a poor one hour Q&A session with the protagonists kept apart and a nerdy, self-opinionated audience, who mostly refused to be shut up.blackburn63 said:
How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.
Anyway, probably something like 90% of likely voters have now made up their minds.
REMAIN must surely be taking comfort from the hundreds of thousands of mainly young voters who have registered in the last few days .... they might just make the difference in REMAIN's favour.
I'd be interested to see registrations by area.0 -
There's an absolutely extraordinary shouting match between the studio guests on CNN at the moment about racism. If this is a foretaste of the campaign America will be turned inside out by the end of the year.0
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Oh god. If your longest run is six tails, then you didn't get seven or more tails, so, um, er, brain hurty now...RodCrosby said:
Embarrass yourself. Take a guess. (^_-)viewcode said:
I should know this and I don't. Go on, embarrass me.RodCrosby said:Puzzle time.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like... 0 -
-
Trump press conference, LIVE: Westchester, NY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRvOJjXZWyo0 -
Bit of a guess as I can't be bothered to write the code at this time of night for a numeric solution and am too tired to bother with an analytical one...RodCrosby said:Puzzle time.
a) I toss a coin 100 times. I find that the longest run of tails is six. Is there anything I can conclude about whether the coin is unbiased or not?
b) I toss a coin a million times. What is the longest run of tails for me to conclude the coin is biased towards tails (or heads)?
You can guess if you like...
a) something like [4, 11] for longest run to suggest unbiased with a E(Longest run) ~ 6
b) E(longest run) should be trending upwards obviously, probably slower than you would think - variance should be declining (probably dividing by a sqrt(n), so i'd guess standard deviation could be 100 times smaller than for 100 tosses) so an interval of a single number, probably round about [30]0 -
Who do you think that post says more about, you or Roger?blackburn63 said:
I've got your measure and you know it, you're a nasty piece of work.Roger said:
You obviously have a problem with me. For the record no malice was intended to you or Peston. It was just my best guessblackburn63 said:
I'll pick a fight with champagne socialists any day. Roger saw who'd posted about Peston and waded in without thinking.BenedictWhite said:
I don't think so. I think you're picking a fight where none need exist.blackburn63 said:
Nope, I remarked that the poor man looked terribly ill, have a read.BenedictWhite said:
No, someone asked why Peston looked bad... Roger answered pointing out the bleeding obvious.blackburn63 said:
Maybe? We all know his wife died ffs.Roger said:
His wife died and he's working for a crap TV station. Maybe?blackburn63 said:Re tonight's programme, debating who won or lost is futile, we all made up our mind beforehand. But that wide eyed look that Cameron has when dealing with questions from the audience - he's done, gone, a shot fighter.
btw did you see Peston? The poor man looks terribly ill.
You really are a despicable person.
Is there a problem with that?
Roger's reply was, at best, crass. I was banned for calling him a fuckin idiot a couple of days ago, he's actually far worse than that, he's intelligent, which makes him malicious.
He;s an ad man, full of bullshit, he knows he fucked up.0 -
Oh fuck it, let's try.
APPROACH 1: WORK OUT FROM FIRST PRINCIPLES
Numbers too big, so let's reduce..."I toss a coin four times and the longest run of tails is two". Four tosses, so the sixteen combinations are: 2X2X2X2
HHHH
THHH
HTHH
TTHH
HHTH
THTH
HTTH
TTTH
HHHT
THHT
HTHT
TTHT
HHTT
THTT
HTTT
TTTT
Three successive tails are 8,15. Four is 16. So P(4 tosses and longest run is two) = 1-P(4 tosses and longest run is three or more) = 1-(3/16) = 13/16 or 0.8125.
Can we get this from a formula and extrapolate up? nCr is n!/r!(n-r!) is 2!/2!2! = 0.5, so...no, not really. Bugger. OK, let's try something else
APPROACH TWO: BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
p(k tails from n tosses) = [n!/k!(n-k)!].p(tails)^k.p(heads)^(n-k).
So p(6 tails)...but we need successive tails, so this won't work
APPROACH THREE: GOOGLE IT
This bloke says it's using generating functions, first solved by de Moivre in 1738 and this paper. I have no idea if he's right
So that's the best I can do at this time of the morning....
0 -
Trump: "We welcome Bernie supporters with open arms" ...from the rigged Democratic system.0
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@blackburn63
When Roger said "His wife died and he's working for a crap TV station. Maybe?" he meant "His wife died and he's working for a crap TV station and that may be the reason why he looks ill". He didn't mean "His wife died and he's working for a crap TV station, or maybe she didn't die".
For the avoidance of doubt I am not Roger.0 -
Trump: "Clinton put the security of the country at risk. Obama covered it up. I will give a major speech on this next week... Clinton turned the State Department into a private hedge fund..."0
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Apperently government website was still accepting voter registration at 00:450
-
Trump suddenly sounding, both in tone and content, as Mr. Reasonable...0
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0
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if i have a standard deviation of 45ml/L that is a large standard deviation but what does it actually mean? What does a large standard deviation show?0
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Katabasis
So the woman who accused Farage of being Waayciiist is a Huff & Puff writer & "diversity activist"
Quelle surprise
https://t.co/OjI4gewFOG0 -
I think we had a couple of cycles of this already where he got through two successive interviews without saying anything overtly racist or sexist and everybody said he'd gone on-message. Then he does the third interview...RodCrosby said:Trump suddenly sounding, both in tone and content, as Mr. Reasonable...
0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-36469254
Large differences in A-level provision. many students will be forced to take btecs which are less likely to get you into the Top uni's and courses. London is doing well for poor areas though.
I know students who have taken btecs and have gone to uni, they are in no way prepared for the academic uni courses, btecs were meant to get people straight into work but the lower ranked uni's are using them to recruit students who no chance at ucl etc. It's a scandal how many ypung people we are forcing into uni debt only to get grad jobs at Tesco's that people would normally would have worked their way up to.
Also we have master and phd grads working as NHS entry level clinical scientists( one of the most competitive jobs out there) on £24k, OK thats a lot of money for some but for f@ck sake can't we do better?0 -
This is 100% schools fault....nunu said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-36469254
Large differences in A-level provision. many students will be forced to take btecs which are less likely to get you into the Top uni's and courses. London is doing well for poor areas though.
I know students who have taken btecs and have gone to uni, they are in no way prepared for the academic uni courses, btecs were meant to get people straight into work but the lower ranked uni's are usingt them to recruit students who no chance at ucl etc.0 -
Standard deviation on its own isn't that helpful, you need the average (mean) and then you can get a feel for how widely spread your data is in relation to the average. In statistics standard deviation is the square root of the variance - in English a measure of how dispersed a dataset is - but the number on its own doesn't tell you much if you don't know the size of the numbers you are dealing with in the sample. In rough terms the "95% confidence level" - the range within which any one item from the sample, picked at random, is 95% likely to fall - is +/- twice the standard deviation from the mean.nunu said:if i have a standard deviation of 45ml/L that is a large standard deviation but what does it actually mean? What does a large standard deviation show?
0 -
Benedict, there is one thing that young voters like to do, and that is travel...BenedictWhite said:
I don't think that there are lots of suddenly enthused young remainers is all... So it would be interesting to see where they are.peter_from_putney said:
I don't believe those details have been published .... but it might be worth checking on the electoral thingybob's website.BenedictWhite said:
I meant geographical areas.peter_from_putney said:
I believe figures have been published by the electoral authorities (name?), providing details of the numbers who are newly registered for each of the age bands and these have been absolutely dominated by the youngest such band. Not altogether surprising that there has been such a large last minute rush, bearing in mind the way the establishment BBC has been carpet-bombing the Tuesday deadline across all its networks.BenedictWhite said:
Unless they're all those pesky WWC voters..peter_from_putney said:
Probably unchanged - a poor one hour Q&A session with the protagonists kept apart and a nerdy, self-opinionated audience, who mostly refused to be shut up.blackburn63 said:
How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.
Anyway, probably something like 90% of likely voters have now made up their minds.
REMAIN must surely be taking comfort from the hundreds of thousands of mainly young voters who have registered in the last few days .... they might just make the difference in REMAIN's favour.
I'd be interested to see registrations by area.0 -
Funny you should say that, had Son No2 asking me today if our voting cards had arrived as he wanted to check that he was still registered because he is fired up to vote Remain. I saw an earlier discussion on PB tonight regarding the lack of reaction to the EU Ref on social media, as if that indicated a lack of interest in the TV debates and this issue full stop. I think it is a mistake to interpret a lack of posts on politics on your social media pages as a lack of interest or engagement in the big issues facing UK politics.peter_from_putney said:
You wouldn't think so, but then the same probably applies to young would be LEAVERS. The fact is that hundreds of thousands have registered over the past few days and having done so, one has to assume that they intend to vote (if they remember that is).BenedictWhite said:
I don't think that there are lots of suddenly enthused young remainers is all... So it would be interesting to see where they are.peter_from_putney said:
I don't believe those details have been published .... but it might be worth checking on the electoral thingybob's website.BenedictWhite said:
I meant geographical areas.peter_from_putney said:
I believe figures have been published by the electoral authorities (name?), providing details of the numbers who are newly registered for each of the age bands and these have been absolutely dominated by the youngest such band. Not altogether surprising that there has been such a large last minute rush, bearing in mind the way the establishment BBC has been carpet-bombing the Tuesday deadline across all its networks.BenedictWhite said:
Unless they're all those pesky WWC voters..peter_from_putney said:
Probably unchanged - a poor one hour Q&A session with the protagonists kept apart and a nerdy, self-opinionated audience, who mostly refused to be shut up.blackburn63 said:
How would you price up IN/OUT after tonight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown is being deployed next.Danny565 said:Do you think the BSE spin doctors will now be trying to keep Cameron off the air/TV-waves for the next few weeks, and instead push the more trusted (source:YouGov) Corbyn forward for the big gigs?
(I'm only half-joking.)
I'm not kidding.
Anyway, probably something like 90% of likely voters have now made up their minds.
REMAIN must surely be taking comfort from the hundreds of thousands of mainly young voters who have registered in the last few days .... they might just make the difference in REMAIN's favour.
I'd be interested to see registrations by area.0 -
Thanks, Sean. Missed your post last night. Will look at those figuresSeanT said:
He's wrong. See my post downthread.FF43 said:
Many thanks, Fox!foxinsoxuk said:
I think the only developed countries that do not have similar or higher rates of immigration than us are Japan and South Korea.FF43 said:
Cameron has a massive, massive problem with immigration. Having previously gone heavy on how bad immigration is, he can't now tell the truth, which is that an open market in a globalised world means immigration and that fact isn't going to change with Brexit. Instead he had to fall back on the line that immigration is being controlled now. Nobody believes it.
-----
We can control immigration, other countries do.
Thanks. Off topic question. Do you, or anyone else, know which countries similar to the UK see relatively less immigration than the UK? I am talking about actual numbers, not whether the countries claim to control immigration0
