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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe: The final countdown, Sixteen days to go

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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,419
    I take it Dave sailed through.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,300
    I'm not a fan of either Farage or Cameron. He's not Blair but to me he came across as a more credible and likable person than Farage.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018

    This was s fantastic show for Cameron. Farage was trounced. Remain are dead cert now.

    Edit: damn, logged into the wrong identity

    How is the Labour ground game going?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Danny565 said:

    Cameron nowhere near as good as in the audience section of the Sky debate, IMO.

    He seemed rather worn down and phoning it in, I found it hard to bother listening to his answers = too much padding and familiar rhetoric.

    The ITV lady should've kept a much tighter rein on his half of the show.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016

    It's clear what the focus groups like.

    Don't choose the Nigel Farage little Englander option.

    I think the "don't go with Farage" line might have some resonance, but "little England" sounds far too sneery, I think.
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    SeanT said:

    tlg86 said:

    That guy should have asked Dave to name his MEPs.

    Yup. Huge opportunity missed.
    No, Cameron would have known that. They'd be Tories.
    Even better then if he had goofed... ;)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    That guy should have asked Dave to name his MEPs.

    That would have been good. I suspect the number of people who actually know their MEP is extremely low.
    Well, if you think the Cameron belongs in Oxfordshire (Witney, Chipping Norton), then the MEP who finished top of the list was .......(drum roll) .........Nigel Farage!

    I think even Dopey Dave would have got that.
    LOL, excellent point.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    tyson said:

    Maybe you might have more fun playing with your pussies.

    And, on that note, I am placing myself back into a self imposed exile.


    PlatoSaid said:

    ITV host isn't making the interventions with Cameron.

    I'm bored here = it's a broadcast from him

    Why are you in exile? I enjoy your posts, even if I disagree with them most of the time, I think we could probably have a beer or two and have a laugh, why disappear?
    I think she who must be obeyed was displeased with sharingnhim with us
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,365
    Uninspiring from both sides. I think Farage just edged it though.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    That bloke has had two questions each way!

    I noticed that! Ridiculously unprofessional of ITV!

    I second Richard Tyndall's comments re: @Steven_Whaley . I enjoy the vigorous debates on here, but that isn't to everyone's taste. If you dish it out, you have to be prepared to take it is my attitude. I've been ridiculed on here more times than I care to remember, but I always come back for more debate, and the world would be a very boring place indeed if everyone thought in exactly the same way!
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Very slight movement on Betfair from start to end, Leave 3.6 -> 3.75.

    But ... was there anything that the 10 O'clock news or morning papers will latch onto? Fallout from these events can take 24 hours to materialise.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,221
    edited June 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    This audience is very good indeed. Tough for both Nige and Dave.

    Yes, though Dave's questioners were a tad more polite.
    I don't agree. There were at least two that were criticising his renegotiation like a sales manager reprimanding an account rep after a poor client meeting. It was completely demeaning for him.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,416
    85%+ of people don't support UKIP.

    So he wants people to think Leave = UKIP.

    Whether that will work I don't know - but that's his thinking.
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited June 2016
    Mortimer said:

    This was s fantastic show for Cameron. Farage was trounced. Remain are dead cert now.

    Edit: damn, logged into the wrong identity

    How is the Labour ground game going?
    Fantastic. I was telling my brother Piers yestedsy..oh b*****cks
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Does Cameron even know what the Magna f-ing Carta is?

    Maybe he thinks it's a small village in Somerset.

    Well you don't know what it is either.

    It is Magna Carta, not THE Magna Carta.

    Magna Carta means The Great Charter.
    I know more about it than you ever will.
    We used to have great sport with No 10's forum when I was running a parallel operation.

    If you posted the great charter in either its original or English translation they took it down.

    We wrote scripts to keep tags on what they were taking down. Most was not objectionable...

    On day something got posted which was contrary to the 1986 public order act and we removed it straight away but they left it up until I rang them and told them to take it down, I shit you not.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    This is all set up for Boris. If he delivers, Leave are home and dry.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    Remain up 2%, Leave obviously down 2%

    Betfair makes Dave the winner.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    That was duller than Wolf Hall.

    I thought Wolf Hall rather good.

    Missed the debate though as other half watching Love Island. I think that is another programme to Farage vs Cameron!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    Danny565 said:

    It's clear what the focus groups like.

    Don't choose the Nigel Farage little Englander option.

    I think the "don't go with Farage" line might have some resonance, but "little England" sounds far too sneery, I think.
    I've noticed him using the don't be quitters line a bit more recently as well.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Anyone interested in Magna Carta with a bit of time to spare should read this speech by the cleverest man in England:

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/speech-150309.pdf

    Denning was smarter.
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    oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    So all this money that's flooding out of the UK because of Brexit risk...

    The stock market is up
    Bond yields are down
    House prices are up

    What exactly was this money invested in before it was moved offshore? Fine wine and classic cars?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I missed the surprise Cameron press conference - did anyone see it?
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    chestnut said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    Cameron looks actually defeated, like he knows he is losing.


    If you can't be objective why do you bother
    He doesn't have the joie de vivre that he usually does. I stand by my thinking that private polling puts Leave ahead, and has done for 3 weeks.
    Private polling use the same companies as published ones. That doesn't make sense
    It's the old Sir Humphrey sketch on polling, Roger.

    Got a link?
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,390
    Is Dan Hannan the latest TRAITOR?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Mortimer said:

    This was s fantastic show for Cameron. Farage was trounced. Remain are dead cert now.

    Edit: damn, logged into the wrong identity

    How is the Labour ground game going?
    IOs is hard at work!
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Uninspiring from both sides. I think Farage just edged it though.

    My thoughts too - Farage seemed a bit flat and didn't seem to have that spark tonight, thought the answer to the pharma chap was weak and where he struggled most. Cameron looks like a PM nearly at the end of the road, exhausted from 6 and a bit years in office.

    I have my own theories about that, namely that 788 790 Finchley Road is getting uncomfortably close to getting out for him, and let me tell you, he will have a lot more to lose than not being PM any more when that day arrives. Its a day that I'm currently working tirelessly away from here and work to bring forward as soon as I possibly can.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,416
    Now In 1.34 / Out 3.85.

    Leave out from 3.6 to 3.85 since 9pm.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,221

    Danny565 said:

    It's clear what the focus groups like.

    Don't choose the Nigel Farage little Englander option.

    I think the "don't go with Farage" line might have some resonance, but "little England" sounds far too sneery, I think.
    I've noticed him using the don't be quitters line a bit more recently as well.
    He's getting it a bit wrong though. He should bellow, "We are fighters and not quitters!"
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    BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Missed the beginning of the debate. Thought Farage was a bit ratty when interrupted. Thought Cameron had it easier and performed better. But I doubt it really matters, although I would keep Gove and Hannan up front wherever possible.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    Cameron looks actually defeated, like he knows he is losing.


    If you can't be objective why do you bother
    He doesn't have the joie de vivre that he usually does. I stand by my thinking that private polling puts Leave ahead, and has done for 3 weeks.
    Private polling use the same companies as published ones. That doesn't make sense
    It's the old Sir Humphrey sketch on polling, Roger.

    Got a link?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Scott_P said:

    @RobDotHutton:

    "Can I get 20 Rothmans, please?"
    "Who is your MEP?"
    "I don't know. Can I just have the cigarettes?"
    "WHO IS YOUR MEP?"

    Ok Ok, If I can tell you who my MEPs are, can I get a discount?
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    So all this money that's flooding out of the UK because of Brexit risk...

    The stock market is up
    Bond yields are down
    House prices are up

    What exactly was this money invested in before it was moved offshore? Fine wine and classic cars?

    It told you everything you need to know about how much the mainstream media understands about how markets work ......or NOT.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306

    Interesting

    twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/740283325001129984

    Less doom and gloom, which is a refreshing change.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    This was s fantastic show for Cameron. Farage was trounced. Remain are dead cert now.

    Edit: damn, logged into the wrong identity

    How is the Labour ground game going?
    IOs is hard at work!
    Too busy to post on here :D
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Remain up 2%, Leave obviously down 2%

    Betfair makes Dave the winner.

    Leave 3.85 now. The market clearly does think Cameron won that on some level, if only by a head.

    To be honest I'm not entirely sure why.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    edited June 2016
    Alistair said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Jobabob said:

    And so it begins, it'll become a stampede

    https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740269903945469952

    Trump is toast walking. I said it long ago. Even when RodCrosby (disappeared) insisted otherwise.
    Disappeared? There was a hiatus in the polls.

    Oh look, here's one today...

    6/2-6/5
    2016 Florida President
    Trump 41% Clinton 40%
    PPP
    In a head to head match up, Trump leads Clinton 45/44. What’s interesting about that is Clinton actually leads 45/34 with independents. But Trump has the slight overall edge because his 83/9 advantage with Republicans is a good deal better than the 77/14 one Clinton has with Democrats.

    Hmm, I wonder which side has a clear presumptive nominee?
    Obama won Florida by 1% and won nationally by 3% in 2012 which suggests Hillary has about a a 1% lead nationally if Trump has a 1% lead in Florida
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,756

    viewcode said:

    I am not watching the bunfight, because not arsed. However, I can confirm that I am not Casino_Royale. I am, however, SeanT, Paul_Bedfordshire, Razedabode, Stark_Dawning, Jobabob, TykeJonno, Wanderer, Mortimer, rottenborough, PlatoSays, chestnut, and Tim_B. It's a gestalt thing... :)

    I am OGH and RCS and TSE as well

    Hahahwhababaha
    Wasn't there a Philip K Dick where where the detective investigates the murder and finds out that he was the murderer? He also did one were somebody searching for a replicant finds out he is one ...and no, it isn't Blade Runner
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    Am watching the debate on ITV+1 but from the comments does not seem a gamechanger!
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Jobabob said:

    viewcode said:

    I am not watching the bunfight, because not arsed. However, I can confirm that I am not Casino_Royale. I am, however, SeanT, Paul_Bedfordshire, Razedabode, Stark_Dawning, Jobabob, TykeJonno, Wanderer, Mortimer, rottenborough, PlatoSays, chestnut, and Tim_B. It's a gestalt thing... :)

    I was just checking that you're not me... :)
    He isn't.

    I am.
    Ah. Bugger. ;)
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,300
    The news is much unkinder to Farage than when seen in its entirety. Farage on the news came across as a racist.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Golly, Peston looks awful - he's aged hugely, looks like he needs a shave and a haircut.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It's obviously the line to take...

    @George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    RobD said:

    Interesting

    twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/740283325001129984

    Less doom and gloom, which is a refreshing change.
    They've been looking for a new non-negative non-fear based positive EU line for a long time.

    Well, they haven't been able to find that for the EU. So I take it this is it.
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    oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455

    Pulpstar said:

    This audience is very good indeed. Tough for both Nige and Dave.

    Yes, though Dave's questioners were a tad more polite.
    I don't agree. There were at least two that were criticising his renegotiation like a sales manager reprimanding an account rep after a poor client meeting. It was completely demeaning for him.
    Richly deserved. I can't remember who on here described it as "the worst deal since Esau", but that's about he size of it.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018
    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    This was s fantastic show for Cameron. Farage was trounced. Remain are dead cert now.

    Edit: damn, logged into the wrong identity

    How is the Labour ground game going?
    IOs is hard at work!
    Far too busy to post!
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    40 years of trying to reform the EU with minimal success. At what point do they concede that reform is impossible whilst outside of the eurozone.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    Wanderer said:

    Remain up 2%, Leave obviously down 2%

    Betfair makes Dave the winner.

    Leave 3.85 now. The market clearly does think Cameron won that on some level, if only by a head.

    To be honest I'm not entirely sure why.
    Anything Dave does anywhere Betfair likes.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Pulpstar said:

    This audience is very good indeed. Tough for both Nige and Dave.

    Yes, though Dave's questioners were a tad more polite.
    I don't agree. There were at least two that were criticising his renegotiation like a sales manager reprimanding an account rep after a poor client meeting. It was completely demeaning for him.
    Richly deserved. I can't remember who on here described it as "the worst deal since Esau", but that's about he size of it.
    :lol:
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    So all this money that's flooding out of the UK because of Brexit risk...

    The stock market is up
    Bond yields are down
    House prices are up

    What exactly was this money invested in before it was moved offshore? Fine wine and classic cars?

    My stocks have picked up a bit, but most of them (HSBC, Rio Tinto etc) make most of their earnings outside the UK. With earnings in USD their value goes up when Sterling slides. To a degree it is a hedge against depreciation.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306

    RobD said:

    Interesting

    twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/740283325001129984

    Less doom and gloom, which is a refreshing change.
    They've been looking for a new non-negative non-fear based positive EU line for a long time.

    Well, they haven't been able to find that for the EU. So I take it this is it.
    The EU is kinda crap, you must admit? Maybe a necessary evil.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Danny565 said:

    It's clear what the focus groups like.

    Don't choose the Nigel Farage little Englander option.

    I think the "don't go with Farage" line might have some resonance, but "little England" sounds far too sneery, I think.
    I've noticed him using the don't be quitters line a bit more recently as well.
    He's getting it a bit wrong though. He should bellow, "We are fighters and not quitters!"
    Well, he's on the same side as Mandy so we know where that line came from.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948
    Wanderer said:

    Remain up 2%, Leave obviously down 2%

    Betfair makes Dave the winner.

    Leave 3.85 now. The market clearly does think Cameron won that on some level, if only by a head.

    To be honest I'm not entirely sure why.
    I think Dave didn't drop a bollock, that's how these things work, you win them by not fecking up.

    I also think ORB disavowing themselves of the Telegraph's reporting of their polls, and Mike and John Curtice highlighting it, has been influential today as well.
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    This was s fantastic show for Cameron. Farage was trounced. Remain are dead cert now.

    Edit: damn, logged into the wrong identity

    LOL! :)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    This was s fantastic show for Cameron. Farage was trounced. Remain are dead cert now.

    Edit: damn, logged into the wrong identity

    How is the Labour ground game going?
    IOs is hard at work!
    Too busy to post on here :D
    He's probably half way up Cornwall now.

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018
    Roger said:

    The news is much unkinder to Farage than when seen in its entirety. Farage on the news came across as a racist.

    In a parallel universe, presumably?
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,419
    Yes, there's definitely huge millage in making the jingoistic case for Remain - Good old Britain in the thick of it, saving those Europeans from themselves again. Let's have a bit of romance and soaring passion. (Contrast with stale old Leave, the height of whose ambition is turning us into the world's largest ferry port.)
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Danny565 said:

    It's clear what the focus groups like.

    Don't choose the Nigel Farage little Englander option.

    I think the "don't go with Farage" line might have some resonance, but "little England" sounds far too sneery, I think.
    I've noticed him using the don't be quitters line a bit more recently as well.
    He's getting it a bit wrong though. He should bellow, "We are fighters and not quitters!"
    Well, he's on the same side as Mandy so we know where that line came from.
    I'm still laughing at Mandy on Sky this morning - he held up a copy of the Mirror and quoted an article on Page TEN as a killer argument.

    It was hilarious.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    30% of 20-24s not registered, vs 5% for 65+.

    Can Remain win on those figures?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Jobabob said:

    And so it begins, it'll become a stampede

    https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740269903945469952

    Trump is toast walking. I said it long ago. Even when RodCrosby (disappeared) insisted otherwise.
    Disappeared? There was a hiatus in the polls.

    Oh look, here's one today...

    6/2-6/5
    2016 Florida President
    Trump 41% Clinton 40%
    PPP
    In a head to head match up, Trump leads Clinton 45/44. What’s interesting about that is Clinton actually leads 45/34 with independents. But Trump has the slight overall edge because his 83/9 advantage with Republicans is a good deal better than the 77/14 one Clinton has with Democrats.

    Hmm, I wonder which side has a clear presumptive nominee?
    Obama won Florida by 1% and won nationally by 3% in 2012 which suggests Hillary has about a a 1% lead nationally if Trump has a 1% lead in Florida
    National polls say 4% lead

    https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/740229028632793088
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Uninspiring from both sides. I think Farage just edged it though.

    Well, if you were not enthusiastic about either side already then that will not have changed certainly.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Leave should immediately appoint Mike Ashley as its spokesman.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    I love Gisela Stuart. I can see why the Tories never get near Edgbaston.

    I'd vote for her.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    So all this money that's flooding out of the UK because of Brexit risk...

    The stock market is up
    Bond yields are down
    House prices are up

    What exactly was this money invested in before it was moved offshore? Fine wine and classic cars?

    My stocks have picked up a bit, but most of them (HSBC, Rio Tinto etc) make most of their earnings outside the UK. With earnings in USD their value goes up when Sterling slides. To a degree it is a hedge against depreciation.
    People are assuming there will be an emergency QE influx (to avoid liquidity issues) if there is a Brexit vote.

    QE = Interest rates down --> FX rate down
    QE = asset price inflation --> stock market up
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @NCPoliticsEU: Betting markets have been moving against #brexit since lunchtime (mostly before #ITVEURef), now down to 26% #EUref https://t.co/a5nCm2mvJ0
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Pulpstar said:

    This audience is very good indeed. Tough for both Nige and Dave.

    Yes, though Dave's questioners were a tad more polite.
    I don't agree. There were at least two that were criticising his renegotiation like a sales manager reprimanding an account rep after a poor client meeting. It was completely demeaning for him.
    And?

    He's our rep, and done a bad bad job. What was he expecting?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I love Gisela Stuart. I can see why the Tories never get near Edgbaston.

    I'd vote for her.

    It was a great line about Merkel or Hollande saying we'll shut this car plant.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RoyalBlue said:

    30% of 20-24s not registered, vs 5% for 65+.

    Can Remain win on those figures?

    Isn't that always the case ? Many of the non-registered would not have voted anyway.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    tyson said:

    Maybe you might have more fun playing with your pussies.

    And, on that note, I am placing myself back into a self imposed exile.


    PlatoSaid said:

    ITV host isn't making the interventions with Cameron.

    I'm bored here = it's a broadcast from him

    Why are you in exile? I enjoy your posts, even if I disagree with them most of the time, I think we could probably have a beer or two and have a laugh, why disappear?
    I think tyson said he was overly invested, emotionally, in the vote, and starting to get obsessive and cranky, to the detriment of normal life.

    I'm sure plenty on here can empathise. I can.
    Indeed, I tend to only post during work hours for that reason, on weekends I'm delivering a lot of leaflets which keeps me away from here as well.

    MaxPB said:

    tyson said:

    Maybe you might have more fun playing with your pussies.

    And, on that note, I am placing myself back into a self imposed exile.


    PlatoSaid said:

    ITV host isn't making the interventions with Cameron.

    I'm bored here = it's a broadcast from him

    Why are you in exile? I enjoy your posts, even if I disagree with them most of the time, I think we could probably have a beer or two and have a laugh, why disappear?
    I think she who must be obeyed was displeased with sharingnhim with us
    Ah, well that also makes sense.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,406
    edited June 2016



    Yes, there's definitely huge millage in making the jingoistic case for Remain - Good old Britain in the thick of it, saving those Europeans from themselves again. Let's have a bit of romance and soaring passion. (Contrast with stale old Leave, the height of whose ambition is turning us into the world's largest ferry port.)

    Nah. We want to be pirates and corsairs on the open seas. What is more romantic than that!!!

    :-)
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I love Gisela Stuart. I can see why the Tories never get near Edgbaston.

    I'd vote for her.

    She tells the marginal Tories that she is one of them really.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,948



    Yes, there's definitely huge millage in making the jingoistic case for Remain - Good old Britain in the thick of it, saving those Europeans from themselves again. Let's have a bit of romance and soaring passion. (Contrast with stale old Leave, the height of whose ambition is turning us into the world's largest ferry port.)

    Nah. We want to be pirates and corsairs on the open seas. What is more romantic than that!!!

    :-)
    Britain was at her best when she ruled the waves.

    We can all agree on that.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Hmmmm...

    @Jeremy_Hunt: Net EU contributions could only run NHS for 19 days but for the other 346 days NHS needs a strong economy not a Brexit recession#ITVEURef
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,191
    edited June 2016

    I love Gisela Stuart. I can see why the Tories never get near Edgbaston.

    I'd vote for her.

    She must have a lot of "Tories For Gisela" voters I think.

    Am off to watch Farage/Cameron on Catch Up.

    Will post my (completely unbiased) opinion later. :smiley:
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Interesting

    twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/740283325001129984

    Less doom and gloom, which is a refreshing change.
    They've been looking for a new non-negative non-fear based positive EU line for a long time.

    Well, they haven't been able to find that for the EU. So I take it this is it.
    The EU is kinda crap, you must admit? Maybe a necessary evil.
    No. It is an undemocratic protection racket that is threatening punishment and consequences for members that Leave. That's what East Germany did to its citizens that wanted to leave.

    A EU worth staying in would take reform seriously, engage seriously with those who were thinking of leaving and both welcome new members or wave a sad but friendly goodbye to those who wanted to go.

    It has to do the former rather than the latter precisely because it is undemocratic.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    This was s fantastic show for Cameron. Farage was trounced. Remain are dead cert now.

    Edit: damn, logged into the wrong identity


    Ha!
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I love ITV's totally representative 'floating voters'. 60% white, 40% black (judging by accent not UK born), no Asians and no pensioners. They come down on Mr Cameron's side. What a surprise!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Jobabob said:

    And so it begins, it'll become a stampede

    https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740269903945469952

    Trump is toast walking. I said it long ago. Even when RodCrosby (disappeared) insisted otherwise.
    Disappeared? There was a hiatus in the polls.

    Oh look, here's one today...

    6/2-6/5
    2016 Florida President
    Trump 41% Clinton 40%
    PPP
    In a head to head match up, Trump leads Clinton 45/44. What’s interesting about that is Clinton actually leads 45/34 with independents. But Trump has the slight overall edge because his 83/9 advantage with Republicans is a good deal better than the 77/14 one Clinton has with Democrats.

    Hmm, I wonder which side has a clear presumptive nominee?
    Obama won Florida by 1% and won nationally by 3% in 2012 which suggests Hillary has about a a 1% lead nationally if Trump has a 1% lead in Florida
    National polls say 4% lead

    https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/740229028632793088
    RCP average has it 2% lead today
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,365

    Uninspiring from both sides. I think Farage just edged it though.

    Well, if you were not enthusiastic about either side already then that will not have changed certainly.
    I'm for Remain but I was unimpressed with Cameron this evening. Looked like he was just going through the motions.

    Farage was more convincing but his shoutiness was off-putting.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    One of the unequivocally brilliant and great things the coalition government did was setup Government Digital Services.

    Their approach to developing websites for government departments is superb.

    Look at how awesome this is

    https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote

    Just going to https://www.gov.uk/performance/ allows you to browse hundreds of really interesting metrics pages.
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    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Am watching the debate on ITV+1 but from the comments does not seem a gamechanger!

    It wasn't. Peston is now on ITV saying that is good for LEAVE, as they have the momentum.
    Status quo ante, I think.
    Key question, are we still talking about immigration and borders? The answer is yes and highlighting Farage's latest outburst may just add to that.
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,004
    Scott_P said:

    It's obviously the line to take...

    @George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn

    Does that line not risk, well, you know, pissing English voters off?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,303
    Scott_P said:

    It's obviously the line to take...

    @George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn

    Yup. It's the new attack line.

    Osborne and Cameron incapable of doing anything other than parroting their tried and tested attack lines.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,784
    Just to confirm; I don't need to bother watching the "debate", right?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Does that line not risk, well, you know, pissing English voters off?

    Apparently the focus groups like it
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    Scott_P said:

    It's obviously the line to take...

    @George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn

    Does that line not risk, well, you know, pissing English voters off?
    Yes. But let REMAIN keep digging with George 2% Osborne.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018
    rcs1000 said:

    Just to confirm; I don't need to bother watching the "debate", right?

    Nah - score draw. Farage better than I feared.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm just checking out how many e-mails the cabinet office sent on the 9th June 2015
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rcs1000 said:

    Just to confirm; I don't need to bother watching the "debate", right?

    You never need to watch the debate.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,060
    surbiton said:

    Leave should immediately appoint Mike Ashley as its spokesman.

    LOL!
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    Cameron looks actually defeated, like he knows he is losing.


    If you can't be objective why do you bother
    He doesn't have the joie de vivre that he usually does. I stand by my thinking that private polling puts Leave ahead, and has done for 3 weeks.
    Private polling use the same companies as published ones. That doesn't make sense
    It's the old Sir Humphrey sketch on polling, Roger.

    Got a link?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
    Ah yes, that one. As ever brilliant!

    The problem here is that not enough of our current crop have watched that.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    RoyalBlue said:

    30% of 20-24s not registered, vs 5% for 65+.

    Can Remain win on those figures?

    What's the source for these figures please, RoyalBlue?
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    Uninspiring from both sides. I think Farage just edged it though.

    Well, if you were not enthusiastic about either side already then that will not have changed certainly.
    I'm for Remain but I was unimpressed with Cameron this evening. Looked like he was just going through the motions.

    Farage was more convincing but his shoutiness was off-putting.
    I agree that Farage was a bit shouty - on the other hand, lots of questioners didn't bother waiting for an answer and I didn't think the presenter handled it very well. People were a lot more deferential towards the PM.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    And here is a £350m answer I have not seen before. Seems to feed the LITTLE England theme too

    @euromove: This is what the EU debate is about. https://t.co/xEVv9EfYk3
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,060
    Scott_P said:

    Hmmmm...

    @Jeremy_Hunt: Net EU contributions could only run NHS for 19 days but for the other 346 days NHS needs a strong economy not a Brexit recession#ITVEURef

    For once Jeremy Hunt is talking sense...
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2016
    That is Hilary's attack line from a few days ago.

    "Imagine thin-skinned Trump not with his Twitter account but with the full force of the US Military at his disposal"
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,191

    Scott_P said:

    It's obviously the line to take...

    @George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn

    Yup. It's the new attack line.

    Osborne and Cameron incapable of doing anything other than parroting their tried and tested attack lines.
    These Posh Boys insulting England (population 52m) is an... Interesting strategy when they're trying to win a referendum?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rcs1000 said:

    Just to confirm; I don't need to bother watching the "debate", right?

    If you don't watch it, how will you know to post that Nigel won?
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Wanderer said:

    Remain up 2%, Leave obviously down 2%

    Betfair makes Dave the winner.

    Leave 3.85 now. The market clearly does think Cameron won that on some level, if only by a head.

    To be honest I'm not entirely sure why.
    I think we ignore how much sentiment drives markets.
This discussion has been closed.