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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe: The final countdown, Sixteen days to go

SystemSystem Posts: 12,266
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe: The final countdown, Sixteen days to go

Latest Betfair odds. Nearly £21 million matched so far this could be the biggest event in political betting history pic.twitter.com/IlPAYfGpJA

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    First? :)
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Brilliant header
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    FPT!

    viewcode said:

    Wanderer said:

    Scott_P said:

    This might upset a few people...

    @JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit

    Hmm. If Hannan has said that I don't think he's just being nice to Remainers. He must either think Leave will win comfortably (and he wants to sound statesmanlike in the meantime) or he thinks it will be very close either way and wants to put pressure on Remain to make an equivalent commitment.
    Or he has always been in favour of full freedom of movement and is using "controlled migration" as a cloak to disguise what he really thinks and gain the votes of antiimmigrationists. See also BoJo (and come to think of it, Gove?)
    You beat me to it! It's obvious that the euro-sceptic Tories have a plan, and it involves moving the Kippers on to the anti-immigration fringe. It's straight out of the New Labour playbook, and it is Gove, of course, who refers to Blair as 'the Master'.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    And before anyone complains, I know Europe doesn't equal the EU, but take it up with the band Europe, they should have named themselves The European Union, not just plain Europe.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161

    And before anyone complains, I know Europe doesn't equal the EU, but take it up with the band Europe, they should have named themselves The European Union, not just plain Europe.

    How about "The Single Market"? :D
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited June 2016
    If Remain had their head screwed on, we'd be seeing a lot less of Cameron and a lot more of Clegg and his wife in these final 16 days.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    Hannan won't be speaking off his own bat. I wonder if Boris, Gove, Cameron and Osborne are already in talks - once Leave has won we'll all agree on EU-membership Lite so Dave can save face and economic turmoil won't blight Boris's first term. They're cunning old buggers these Tories!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Hannan won't be speaking off his own bat. I wonder if Boris, Gove, Cameron and Osborne are already in talks - once Leave has won we'll all agree on EU-membership Lite so Dave can save face and economic turmoil won't blight Boris's first term. They're cunning old buggers these Tories!

    There is literally no way for Dave to save face.

    He has lost whether we Remain or Leave. He ceased to be useful when his personal poll ratings plumbed new depths.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304
    FPT
    Indigo said:

    No it won't, all he got them to agree to was to let the UK prorate the benefit according to the cost of living in the country the kid is living in. Bureaucratic nightmare or what, it would have to be calculated for each country where someone is sending benefit to a child, and constantly updated, not only that in some of the countries we would have to pay more rather than less.

    Ah, that's right, it will probably cost more to implement than it will save.
    Scott_P said:

    This might upset a few people...

    @JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit

    I don't get what the margin of victory has to do with it. At the end of the day we are voting on whether or not to remain in the EU. What leave actually looks like is up to our elected politicians.

    If the voters don't like what they do between now and the next election then they can kick them out.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Mortimer said:

    If Remain had their head screwed on, we'd be seeing a lot less of Cameron and a lot more of Clegg and his wife in these final 16 days.

    Is this sarcasm? :D
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,294
    RobD said:

    And before anyone complains, I know Europe doesn't equal the EU, but take it up with the band Europe, they should have named themselves The European Union, not just plain Europe.

    How about "The Single Market"? :D
    Interestingly, a facebook acquaintance was yesterday encouraging people to come up with Brexit-themed songs. The one which immediately sprang to mind was 'The Final Countdown', which I didn't submit because, on reflection, it didn't appear particularly relevant, and then I couldn't work out why I'd thought of it. Only now you point out who wrote the song do I realise what my brain was doing.
  • Mortimer said:

    If Remain had their head screwed on, we'd be seeing a lot less of Cameron and a lot more of Clegg and his wife in these final 16 days.

    Nick who?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Good grief.

    Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.

    Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Mortimer said:

    If Remain had their head screwed on, we'd be seeing a lot less of Cameron and a lot more of Clegg and his wife in these final 16 days.

    tim would be happy.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Mortimer said:

    If Remain had their head screwed on, we'd be seeing a lot less of Cameron and a lot more of Clegg and his wife in these final 16 days.

    Just his wife will do.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    If Remain had their head screwed on, we'd be seeing a lot less of Cameron and a lot more of Clegg and his wife in these final 16 days.

    Is this sarcasm? :D
    I'm deadly serious. Especially Miriam - she was very good on C4 news.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Mortimer said:

    Good grief.

    Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.

    Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....

    Yugoslavia?! That hasn't existed in a decade.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418

    Mortimer said:

    Good grief.

    Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.

    Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....

    Yugoslavia?! That hasn't existed in a decade.
    Typical Leaver, always living in the past.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Good grief.

    Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.

    Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....

    Yugoslavia?! That hasn't existed in a decade.
    Yes yes, but you know where I mean don't you...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,922
    Jobabob said:

    Mortimer said:

    If Remain had their head screwed on, we'd be seeing a lot less of Cameron and a lot more of Clegg and his wife in these final 16 days.

    Just his wife will do.
    Perhaps a debate with Kirsten Farage?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    RobD said:

    And before anyone complains, I know Europe doesn't equal the EU, but take it up with the band Europe, they should have named themselves The European Union, not just plain Europe.

    How about "The Single Market"? :D
    'Ever Closer Union' would be a great name for a band.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,922

    RobD said:

    And before anyone complains, I know Europe doesn't equal the EU, but take it up with the band Europe, they should have named themselves The European Union, not just plain Europe.

    How about "The Single Market"? :D
    'Ever Closer Union' would be a great name for a band.
    Sounds more like a twee sitcom.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Independent: Billions of pounds aer being taken out of the British economy as investors fear Brexit https://t.co/wf9RHFw3B1
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    RobD said:

    And before anyone complains, I know Europe doesn't equal the EU, but take it up with the band Europe, they should have named themselves The European Union, not just plain Europe.

    How about "The Single Market"? :D
    'Ever Closer Union' would be a great name for a band.
    Sounds more like a twee sitcom.

    "Ever Decreasing Liberty"

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161

    RobD said:

    And before anyone complains, I know Europe doesn't equal the EU, but take it up with the band Europe, they should have named themselves The European Union, not just plain Europe.

    How about "The Single Market"? :D
    'Ever Closer Union' would be a great name for a band.
    Sounds more like a twee sitcom.

    "Ever Decreasing Liberty"

    One for the Leavers - "Referendum Lock"
  • kjohnw said:
    Microsoft facebook and twitter are not internet providers they are site provifers just like OGH is with this site.

    Removing things that the authorities dont like within 24 hours is as futile as trying to stop people posting about superinjunctions on those sites.

    It will just go viral and be reposted and retweeted and published on sites like Guidos with serveds outside the EU who dont give a 4X what EU censors think
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Scott_P said:

    @Independent: Billions of pounds aer being taken out of the British economy as investors fear Brexit https://t.co/wf9RHFw3B1

    Not worth the paper its written on.

    Oh, wait....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    Mortimer said:

    Hannan won't be speaking off his own bat. I wonder if Boris, Gove, Cameron and Osborne are already in talks - once Leave has won we'll all agree on EU-membership Lite so Dave can save face and economic turmoil won't blight Boris's first term. They're cunning old buggers these Tories!

    There is literally no way for Dave to save face.

    He has lost whether we Remain or Leave. He ceased to be useful when his personal poll ratings plumbed new depths.
    Well, Dave's reputation wasn't really my point. More interesting is that tonight we've got the most vocable Tory eurosceptics on the planet explicitly talking about fudge and compromise with Remain should Leave win. There's some skulduggery afoot!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Trying to get my head around Hannan's bizarre intervention.

    Clearly he is the thinking man's eurosceptic so one would be foolish to give some credence to his views.

    Message seems to be Vote Leave get Remain. Could be effective.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,807
    Mortimer said:

    Hannan won't be speaking off his own bat. I wonder if Boris, Gove, Cameron and Osborne are already in talks - once Leave has won we'll all agree on EU-membership Lite so Dave can save face and economic turmoil won't blight Boris's first term. They're cunning old buggers these Tories!

    There is literally no way for Dave to save face.

    He has lost whether we Remain or Leave. He ceased to be useful when his personal poll ratings plumbed new depths.
    Weirdly, Cameron does have an escape route, and Gove's given it to him!

    IF LEAVE wins
    AND Cameron executes Article 50 almost immediately
    AND Cameron goes to the commons and gets a HOC vote that Cameron's government will lead the negotiations to exit EU and take UK into EEA
    AND makes that vote a confidence motion
    AND he wins...

    ...then he's won! A brand new mandate, a legitimate position ("..It's the next best thing..."), he royally f***s Gove, and gets a thirteenth regeneration. OK, not that last bit... :)
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Off topic - so we have Arsenal chasing Vardy and Man City chasing Stones. Hope they can keep their focus on the job in hand.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    @AdamBienkov: Undecided referendum voters tend to be pro-Conservative and anti-Farage.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/06/how-important-are-tv-debates-deciding-eu-referendum
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,807
    Jobabob said:

    Trying to get my head around Hannan's bizarre intervention.

    See previous thread for my explanation.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    Hannan won't be speaking off his own bat. I wonder if Boris, Gove, Cameron and Osborne are already in talks - once Leave has won we'll all agree on EU-membership Lite so Dave can save face and economic turmoil won't blight Boris's first term. They're cunning old buggers these Tories!

    There is literally no way for Dave to save face.

    He has lost whether we Remain or Leave. He ceased to be useful when his personal poll ratings plumbed new depths.
    Weirdly, Cameron does have an escape route, and Gove's given it to him!

    IF LEAVE wins
    AND Cameron executes Article 50 almost immediately
    AND Cameron goes to the commons and gets a HOC vote that Cameron's government will lead the negotiations to exit EU and take UK into EEA
    AND makes that vote a confidence motion
    AND he wins...

    ...then he's won! A brand new mandate, a legitimate position ("..It's the next best thing..."), he royally f***s Gove, and gets a thirteenth regeneration. OK, not that last bit... :)
    Would hate to be Graham Brady's postman in that unlikely event...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Jobabob said:

    Trying to get my head around Hannan's bizarre intervention.

    Clearly he is the thinking man's eurosceptic so one would be foolish to give some credence to his views.

    Message seems to be Vote Leave get Remain. Could be effective.

    Not to give credence I mean

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,807
    Anyhoo, gotta go. Laters, alligators
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Re Hannan, surely the first question is whether he will repudiate this statement that is attributed to him. I would have expected him to do so by now though. But maybe he's stuck in a tunnel.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Mortimer said:

    Hannan won't be speaking off his own bat. I wonder if Boris, Gove, Cameron and Osborne are already in talks - once Leave has won we'll all agree on EU-membership Lite so Dave can save face and economic turmoil won't blight Boris's first term. They're cunning old buggers these Tories!

    There is literally no way for Dave to save face.

    He has lost whether we Remain or Leave. He ceased to be useful when his personal poll ratings plumbed new depths.
    Well, Dave's reputation wasn't really my point. More interesting is that tonight we've got the most vocable Tory eurosceptics on the planet explicitly talking about fudge and compromise with Remain should Leave win. There's some skulduggery afoot!
    That is a great point.
    Hmm.
    What is going on?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,149
    Jobabob said:

    Trying to get my head around Hannan's bizarre intervention.

    Clearly he is the thinking man's eurosceptic so one would be foolish to give some credence to his views.

    Message seems to be Vote Leave get Remain. Could be effective.

    Well, IIRC, @NickPalmer was saying on here recently that in countries where referendums are used a lot, a very close result does bring concessions to the losing side, which seems fairly sensible. Maybe Mr Hannan is thinking along those lines.

    Obviously, the main point (Remain/Leave) can't be conceded, but if the country is really evenly split, it is silly to say (as the EU undoubtedly will if its Remain) that it means a 100% endorsement of the winning side.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Go Dave.

    (Crikey hasn't the world changed)
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    Jobabob said:

    Trying to get my head around Hannan's bizarre intervention.

    Clearly he is the thinking man's eurosceptic so one would be foolish to give some credence to his views.

    Message seems to be Vote Leave get Remain. Could be effective.

    My guess is that they've identified uncertainty as a massive Leave weak-spot, so are now going to push 'nothing much'll change folks', 'back to the negotiating table', 'it'll all come out in the wash'. In two years' time we'll all be here discussing the merit's of PM Boris's 'deal'.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Mortimer said:

    Good grief.

    Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.

    Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....

    Yugoslavia?! That hasn't existed in a decade.
    Yes, that was a country stitched together by elites. That went well didn't it?
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Scott_P said:

    @Independent: Billions of pounds aer being taken out of the British economy as investors fear Brexit https://t.co/wf9RHFw3B1

    Hasn't shown up in the £$ rate or the £/Euro rate. I've been watching both for years. Just the usual noise.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Gove talked in his Sky interview about the economic plan being unveiled this week.

    It stands to reason that a transitional plan would be part of that, in my view.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited June 2016

    Jobabob said:

    Trying to get my head around Hannan's bizarre intervention.

    Clearly he is the thinking man's eurosceptic so one would be foolish to give some credence to his views.

    Message seems to be Vote Leave get Remain. Could be effective.

    My guess is that they've identified uncertainty as a massive Leave weak-spot, so are now going to push 'nothing much'll change folks', 'back to the negotiating table', 'it'll all come out in the wash'. In two years' time we'll all be here discussing the merit's of PM Boris's 'deal'.
    Which makes you wonder if Astors intervention was part of it, which makes you wonder about the conspiracy theory that Dave is a secret leaver...
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Mortimer said:

    Good grief.

    Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.

    Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....

    Yugoslavia?! That hasn't existed in a decade.
    Yes, that was a country stitched together by elites. That went well didn't it?
    Well, this country was stitched together by elites.

    Can you think of a country that wasn't?
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Mortimer said:

    Hannan won't be speaking off his own bat. I wonder if Boris, Gove, Cameron and Osborne are already in talks - once Leave has won we'll all agree on EU-membership Lite so Dave can save face and economic turmoil won't blight Boris's first term. They're cunning old buggers these Tories!

    There is literally no way for Dave to save face.

    He has lost whether we Remain or Leave. He ceased to be useful when his personal poll ratings plumbed new depths.
    Well, Dave's reputation wasn't really my point. More interesting is that tonight we've got the most vocable Tory eurosceptics on the planet explicitly talking about fudge and compromise with Remain should Leave win. There's some skulduggery afoot!
    If it's 50/50 and mine is the casting vote, some fudge would be required.

    If it's 55/45 less so and so on and so forth.

    What we are seeing though, is the whites of their eyes.

    Fun, no?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    edited June 2016
    FPT @ viewcode/wanderer "Eh? Both sides have the same capabilities. They would both be the British Government after the vote.

    If what he means is that a 51/49 Leave win should mean EEA then he can reasonably argue that a 51/49 Remain win should too and press Cameron to sign up to that.

    To understand Hannan's response you must understand what he wants. I know many here admire Hannan (I don't), and if memory serves I think some have met him (Casino Royale?) so in deference to their feelings I won't bang on. If you want to find out why I think Hannan said what he said, see below."

    Hannan wants EFTA. He doesn't have a problem with free movement of workers and supports taking higher numbers of refugees and immigrants in general.

    However, he concedes that immigration would have broader support if we had sovereign control over numbers and terms.

    I know, because he told me.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Mortimer said:

    Good grief.

    Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.

    Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....

    Yugoslavia?! That hasn't existed in a decade.
    Yes, that was a country stitched together by elites. That went well didn't it?
    And all planning (bar Kosova) to join back up within the EU. Its not just us doing the hokey-cokey!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,922
    edited June 2016

    if memory serves I think some have met him (Casino Royale?) so in deference to their feelings I won't bang on. If you want to find out why I think Hannan said what he said, see below.

    We have a bad case of split personality posting going on here...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258

    if memory serves I think some have met him (Casino Royale?) so in deference to their feelings I won't bang on. If you want to find out why I think Hannan said what he said, see below.

    We have a bad case of split personality posting going on here...
    Bad quoting! FPT :-)
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Wanderer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Good grief.

    Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.

    Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....

    Yugoslavia?! That hasn't existed in a decade.
    Yes, that was a country stitched together by elites. That went well didn't it?
    Well, this country was stitched together by elites.

    Can you think of a country that wasn't?
    Good question. It at least had some common ground and shared history though.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    edited June 2016

    Eh? Both sides have the same capabilities. They would both be the British Government after the vote.

    If what he means is that a 51/49 Leave win should mean EEA then he can reasonably argue that a 51/49 Remain win should too and press Cameron to sign up to that.

    To understand Hannan's response you must understand what he wants. I know many here admire Hannan (I don't), and if memory serves I think some have met him (Casino Royale?) so in deference to their feelings I won't bang on. If you want to find out why I think Hannan said what he said, see below.

    Hannan wants EFTA. He doesn't have a problem with free movement of workers and supports taking higher numbers of refugees and immigrants in general.

    However, he concedes that immigration would have broader support if we had sovereign control over numbers and terms.

    I know, because he told me.

    Why did you name yourself in your own post when speculating about posters who've possibly met Dan Hannan? Bit odd. Hope there's no multiple-identity thing going on here and you used the wrong login!
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Wanderer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Good grief.

    Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.

    Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....

    Yugoslavia?! That hasn't existed in a decade.
    Yes, that was a country stitched together by elites. That went well didn't it?
    Well, this country was stitched together by elites.

    Can you think of a country that wasn't?
    Thought you were leaving. Glad you haven't!

    Welcome back!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    I am very nervous about Farage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    And so it begins, it'll become a stampede

    https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740269903945469952
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I hope voters in California vote judge Aaron Persky OUT of office today.

    http://fortune.com/2016/06/06/stanford-swimmer-assault/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Completely off topic:

    Anyone fancy a PB fantasy football league for the Euros?

    If so, what is the best site?
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Mortimer said:

    Good grief.

    Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.

    Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....

    Yugoslavia?! That hasn't existed in a decade.
    Yes, that was a country stitched together by elites. That went well didn't it?
    And all planning (bar Kosova) to join back up within the EU. Its not just us doing the hokey-cokey!
    Yes but swapping being dominated by Serbs (led by 1 Croat) for being dominated by the Germans...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Dan Hannan is an EEA guy. He supports movement of people.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    FPT @ viewcode/wanderer "Eh? Both sides have the same capabilities. They would both be the British Government after the vote.

    If what he means is that a 51/49 Leave win should mean EEA then he can reasonably argue that a 51/49 Remain win should too and press Cameron to sign up to that.

    To understand Hannan's response you must understand what he wants. I know many here admire Hannan (I don't), and if memory serves I think some have met him (Casino Royale?) so in deference to their feelings I won't bang on. If you want to find out why I think Hannan said what he said, see below."

    Hannan wants EFTA. He doesn't have a problem with free movement of workers and supports taking higher numbers of refugees and immigrants in general.

    However, he concedes that immigration would have broader support if we had sovereign control over numbers and terms.

    I know, because he told me.

    I haven't met Hannan but my view of him is that, although he is "merely" an MEP, he is a major figure on the Leave side. So I am applying the Metternich "What did he mean by that?" to him.

    But I realise it's possible that he's just saying what's in his head.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    And so it begins, it'll become a stampede

    https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740269903945469952

    Trump is toast walking. I said it long ago. Even when RodCrosby (disappeared) insisted otherwise.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,922
    edited June 2016

    FPT @ viewcode/wanderer "Eh? Both sides have the same capabilities. They would both be the British Government after the vote.

    If what he means is that a 51/49 Leave win should mean EEA then he can reasonably argue that a 51/49 Remain win should too and press Cameron to sign up to that.

    To understand Hannan's response you must understand what he wants.

    Could it be the following:

    - His assumption was that Remain would win
    - He wanted to make the result as close as possible and use it to argue that the status quo wouldn't wash and push for EEA
    - It's started to look like Leave could actually win outright which would throw a spanner in the works of this plan
    - He's back-peddling
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    That was really quite a good first answer.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    if memory serves I think some have met him (Casino Royale?) so in deference to their feelings I won't bang on. If you want to find out why I think Hannan said what he said, see below.

    We have a bad case of split personality posting going on here...
    No one craves another multiple screen names controversy.

    The Last Boy Scout would be turning in his tent.
  • Jobabob said:

    And so it begins, it'll become a stampede

    https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740269903945469952

    Trump is toast walking. I said it long ago. Even when RodCrosby (disappeared) insisted otherwise.
    In view of how western countries like UK are revolting against theiir elites in the ballot box at the moment Im not sure that this will have any more effect than Lord Heseltine saying he is voting remain.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    I thought it was no responses from the audience?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    This questioner has had his shredded wheat.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    PeterC said:

    Wanderer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Good grief.

    Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.

    Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....

    Yugoslavia?! That hasn't existed in a decade.
    Yes, that was a country stitched together by elites. That went well didn't it?
    Well, this country was stitched together by elites.

    Can you think of a country that wasn't?
    Thought you were leaving. Glad you haven't!

    Welcome back!
    Thank you.

    I said I was probably going to leave and I probably am. I waste too much time here really.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304
    How much respect does the public have for pharmaceuticals, I wonder? More or less than bankers?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    Mortimer said:

    That was really quite a good first answer.

    It was.

    Trouble is, will anyone listen to his answers?

    And I think quite a few questioners in the audience just want to attack him.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Nigel needs to keep the good humour - the first answer was good, the second questioner rattled him I think.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Jobabob said:

    if memory serves I think some have met him (Casino Royale?) so in deference to their feelings I won't bang on. If you want to find out why I think Hannan said what he said, see below.

    We have a bad case of split personality posting going on here...
    No one craves another multiple screen names controversy.

    The Last Boy Scout would be turning in his tent.
    Was it ever determined if Tim and compouter were the same person?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Just in case people are wondering what is happening in America - Trump continues to get the worst possible options on his Trump University scam court case, keep it in the news cycle and get a swathe of Republicans who have endorsed him to openly call his statements racist.

    Just in case you are wondering why his price is drifting.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Very good sir.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    Good response on Juncker. Got a hit in there.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304
    The danger is that Farage does too well. No one likes a smart arse.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    My reading of the latest YouGov polling is different to that.

    In response to the question "Thinking about the current debate over Britain’s membership of the European Union and the referendum, how much do you trust the statements and claims made by the following people?", the "Don't Knows" broke as follows:
    - Cameron: Trust 15 Do Not Trust 60
    - Farage: Trust 14, Do Not Trust 56
    If we're splitting hairs, they are very marginally less likely to trust Cameron than Farage. That doesn't suggest to me that Cameron is going to be any more persuasive.

    The more telling statistic is this: only 36% of undecideds are certain to vote. So in practice most won't (unless you believe that overall turnout will be well above 67%, the % of the overall YouGov sample who declared themselves certain to vote). I think that shifts in opinion amongst those already declared for one camp or the other are more important. (i.e. people shifting from Leave or Remain to undecided).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    tlg86 said:

    How much respect does the public have for pharmaceuticals, I wonder? More or less than bankers?

    I believe one of the big bangs Remain will deploy in the next 15 days, will be the NHS staff, and the medical industry will be coming out for Remain, very heavily.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    Eh? Both sides have the same capabilities. They would both be the British Government after the vote.

    If what he means is that a 51/49 Leave win should mean EEA then he can reasonably argue that a 51/49 Remain win should too and press Cameron to sign up to that.

    To understand Hannan's response you must understand what he wants. I know many here admire Hannan (I don't), and if memory serves I think some have met him (Casino Royale?) so in deference to their feelings I won't bang on. If you want to find out why I think Hannan said what he said, see below.

    Hannan wants EFTA. He doesn't have a problem with free movement of workers and supports taking higher numbers of refugees and immigrants in general.

    However, he concedes that immigration would have broader support if we had sovereign control over numbers and terms.

    I know, because he told me.

    Why did you name yourself in your own post when speculating about posters who've possibly met Dan Hannan? Bit odd. Hope there's no multiple-identity thing going on here and you used the wrong login!
    He didn't. It was Viewcode who mentioned him. And one thing you can be sure of is he isn't Casino given he is on the other side of the argument. I think you are having nesting issues.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2016

    And so it begins, it'll become a stampede

    https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740269903945469952

    Cripes, I've got 50 quid on trump I intended to trade out after the convention bounce but I might take my break even point now an be done with it.
  • Farage has caught the dreadful "you-know-what-itis"

    Ugh!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,922
    Oh dear... Farage got the tone all wrong there. "We're British! We're not going to be bullied by Juncker."
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    This is a much better informed audience than any QT audience I've ever seen. Kudos to ITV
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304
    Posho in the audience wanting to keep wages down.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mortimer said:

    Nigel needs to keep the good humour - the first answer was good, the second questioner rattled him I think.

    It's an argument I've never heard before.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    SeanT said:

    Farage playing a solid game so far. His aim must be to Not Fuck Up. Wield a straight bat. Defend the wicket. Geoff Boycott on a summer afternoon at Lords scoring one run an hour.

    Yes! I was hoping Sean would be on here for this.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    "We're not going to be bullied by the unelected" got the best response so far.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The audience making a plea for cheap labour.
  • I've met @CasinoRoyale. And a thoroughly decent chap he is too.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    tlg86 said:

    Posho in the audience wanting to keep wages down.

    It is hilarious isn't it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    edited June 2016
    Oooh, telling her to calm down is not a good look.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    Farage getting too tetchy.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Calm down dear...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    edited June 2016
    Betfair rock solid - not moving a muscle.

    In 1.38
    Out 3.6
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tlg86 said:

    How much respect does the public have for pharmaceuticals, I wonder? More or less than bankers?

    how about pharmaceutical bankers like me?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    SeanT said:

    It's pretty clear Hannan is pointing to EEA or EFTA.

    Noises off.

    What a dangerous game. I admire Hannan, but Leave have set their stall out: a cut in immigration to the tens of thousands.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Good level headed criticism of Arch Bish.
This discussion has been closed.