politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe: The final countdown, Sixteen days to go
Comments
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I think we ignore how much sentiment drives markets.Wanderer said:
Leave 3.85 now. The market clearly does think Cameron won that on some level, if only by a head.TheScreamingEagles said:Remain up 2%, Leave obviously down 2%
Betfair makes Dave the winner.
To be honest I'm not entirely sure why.0 -
I expect this will get some more play in the next couple of days too
@woodstockjag: Bears repeating. ITV news didn't report it. Farage's response to concerns about pharmaceutical industry was "I prefer alternative medicine"0 -
Pick your clip... That's the way the news works.Roger said:The news is much unkinder to Farage than when seen in its entirety. Farage on the news came across as a racist.
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One for youAlastairMeeks said:
You never need to watch the debate.rcs1000 said:Just to confirm; I don't need to bother watching the "debate", right?
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7402882374285598720 -
@Ed_Miliband: Irony not dead... https://t.co/nHXKZSED9y0
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Little England is what Junker and Merkel and Hollande want us to be in the EU with our hands tied by the other 27 members over ruling us . Great Britain is what we can be outside the EU trading freely with the rest of the world and being a beacon of freedom and democracy rather than a subservient member of the EUSSRRazedabode said:
Does that line not risk, well, you know, pissing English voters off?Scott_P said:It's obviously the line to take...
@George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn0 -
It will piss off committed Leavers, but those votes are lost to Remain already. The intention is to make the waverers stop and think if they want to be associated with Farage.Razedabode said:
Does that line not risk, well, you know, pissing English voters off?Scott_P said:It's obviously the line to take...
@George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn
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And how those with deep pockets are more inclined to Remain.BenedictWhite said:
I think we ignore how much sentiment drives markets.Wanderer said:
Leave 3.85 now. The market clearly does think Cameron won that on some level, if only by a head.TheScreamingEagles said:Remain up 2%, Leave obviously down 2%
Betfair makes Dave the winner.
To be honest I'm not entirely sure why.
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Lot of new friendships being struck:murali_s said:
For once Jeremy Hunt is talking sense...Scott_P said:Hmmmm...
@Jeremy_Hunt: Net EU contributions could only run NHS for 19 days but for the other 346 days NHS needs a strong economy not a Brexit recession#ITVEURef
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/7402815964445736960 -
Only 43% of 18-24s voted in the general election in 2015 so if 70% are registered now that could suggest a slightly higher turnout amongst younger voters. 78% of over 65s voted last May so they may also be slightly up.RoyalBlue said:30% of 20-24s not registered, vs 5% for 65+.
Can Remain win on those figures?
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx?view=wide
The election is likely to be won though by the middle aged, ie those aged 35 to 55 who voted Tory last May and Labour under Blair0 -
For those ultra-rare occasions you can always catch up later.SeanT said:
Well that's a lot of twaddle, Mr Meeks: the TV debates turned the Scottish indyref, especially the second.AlastairMeeks said:
You never need to watch the debate.rcs1000 said:Just to confirm; I don't need to bother watching the "debate", right?
I've not watched an episode of Question Time in 30 years. I don't feel less well-informed for this truancy.0 -
They're probably capable, but think one message works best. Remember long-term economic plan? Labour a threat to your security?Casino_Royale said:
Yup. It's the new attack line.Scott_P said:It's obviously the line to take...
@George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn
Osborne and Cameron incapable of doing anything other than parroting their tried and tested attack lines.
Compare to Dan Hannan who has crossed over into TRAITOR territory this evening. Clever man, in the especially English sense of cleverness which is rare among Continental Europeans or Americans. Says clever things. But not a man you would say is good at messaging to the normal zero-sigma voter.0 -
That's shit.Scott_P said:And here is a £350m answer I have not seen before. Seems to feed the LITTLE England theme too
@euromove: This is what the EU debate is about. https://t.co/xEVv9EfYk30 -
Q.F.T.kjohnw said:
Little England is what Junker and Merkel and Hollande want us to be in the EU with our hands tied by the other 27 members over ruling us . Great Britain is what we can be outside the EU trading freely with the rest of the world and being a beacon of freedom and democracy rather than a subservient member of the EUSSRRazedabode said:
Does that line not risk, well, you know, pissing English voters off?Scott_P said:It's obviously the line to take...
@George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn0 -
I have pondered trying to get quoted on the front page of the Mail or the Express during this referendum campaign but I have too much self-regard. Others evidently feel differently.TheScreamingEagles said:
One for youAlastairMeeks said:
You never need to watch the debate.rcs1000 said:Just to confirm; I don't need to bother watching the "debate", right?
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7402882374285598720 -
Paul_Bedfordshire said:
This was s fantastic show for Cameron. Farage was trounced. Remain are dead cert now.
Edit: damn, logged into the wrong identity
Ha!
Hispanics will break about 99-1 for Hillary after JudgegateHYUFD said:
RCP average has it 2% lead todayAlistair said:
National polls say 4% leadHYUFD said:
Obama won Florida by 1% and won nationally by 3% in 2012 which suggests Hillary has about a a 1% lead nationally if Trump has a 1% lead in FloridaAlistair said:
In a head to head match up, Trump leads Clinton 45/44. What’s interesting about that is Clinton actually leads 45/34 with independents. But Trump has the slight overall edge because his 83/9 advantage with Republicans is a good deal better than the 77/14 one Clinton has with Democrats.RodCrosby said:
Disappeared? There was a hiatus in the polls.Jobabob said:
Trump is toast walking. I said it long ago. Even when RodCrosby (disappeared) insisted otherwise.TheScreamingEagles said:And so it begins, it'll become a stampede
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740269903945469952
Oh look, here's one today...
6/2-6/5
2016 Florida President
Trump 41% Clinton 40%
PPP
Hmm, I wonder which side has a clear presumptive nominee?
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/740229028632793088
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/0 -
Chuckles.AlastairMeeks said:
I've not watched an episode of Question Time in 30 years. I don't feel less well-informed for this truancy.SeanT said:
Well that's a lot of twaddle, Mr Meeks: the TV debates turned the Scottish indyref, especially the second.AlastairMeeks said:
You never need to watch the debate.rcs1000 said:Just to confirm; I don't need to bother watching the "debate", right?
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There is a difference, of course.Casino_Royale said:
No. It is an undemocratic protection racket that is threatening punishment and consequences for members that Leave. That's what East Germany did to its citizens that wanted to leave.RobD said:
The EU is kinda crap, you must admit? Maybe a necessary evil.Casino_Royale said:
They've been looking for a new non-negative non-fear based positive EU line for a long time.RobD said:
Less doom and gloom, which is a refreshing change.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/740283325001129984
Well, they haven't been able to find that for the EU. So I take it this is it.
A EU worth staying in would take reform seriously, engage seriously with those who were thinking of leaving and both welcome new members or wave a sad but friendly goodbye to those who wanted to go.
It has to do the former rather than the latter precisely because it is undemocratic.
The EU will have to deal with the UK post-Brexit. We are an important export market for them. (The East Germans would never have dealt with a traitor post his departure.)
So, this is like when politicians say they won't do a deal in the event of a hung parliament. In other words, you can ignore it. The fact is that the UK and the EU need each other. Supply chains for cars and the like cross the channel. It is in no-one's interest for things to get messy.
Post Brexit, there will be an interim, EEA-like, deal within two years. Then there will be a longer-term deal. I sincerely hope that we have some market based system for immigration (the idea that governments can plan the economy is absurd).0 -
Today Vote Leave has more likes on Facebook than BSE for the first time. Cross-over?0
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It is a brilliant speech, putting several professional historians to shame.AlastairMeeks said:Anyone interested in Magna Carta with a bit of time to spare should read this speech by the cleverest man in England:
https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/speech-150309.pdf
A couple of years ago now I was involved in a Supreme Court case. My learned senior was being his usual earnest self about some arcane piece of Scottish conveyancing and Sumption was sitting there looking utterly bored . After about half an hour he just commented, is this case not really about x, y and z and is the answer not clearly A? There was a slightly stunned silence as everyone realised, yes, yes it was.0 -
One imagines you would be better informed for not watching Question Time, a programme and format well past its prime.AlastairMeeks said:
For those ultra-rare occasions you can always catch up later.SeanT said:
Well that's a lot of twaddle, Mr Meeks: the TV debates turned the Scottish indyref, especially the second.AlastairMeeks said:
You never need to watch the debate.rcs1000 said:Just to confirm; I don't need to bother watching the "debate", right?
I've not watched an episode of Question Time in 30 years. I don't feel less well-informed for this truancy.0 -
43% turnout amount young voters - is this % of registered voters of % of demographic. Anyway a truly dreadful and quite frankly shameful figure...HYUFD said:
Only 43% of 18-24s voted in the general election in 2015 so if 70% are registered now that could suggest a slightly higher turnout amongst younger voters. 78% of over 65s voted last May so they may also be slightly up.RoyalBlue said:30% of 20-24s not registered, vs 5% for 65+.
Can Remain win on those figures?
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx?view=wide
The election is likely to be won though by the middle aged, ie those aged 35 to 55 who voted Tory last May and Labour under Blair0 -
Indeed. If one could only predict where the sentiment would be. Anyway, Leave is creeping back in. Nothing to see here.BenedictWhite said:
I think we ignore how much sentiment drives markets.Wanderer said:
Leave 3.85 now. The market clearly does think Cameron won that on some level, if only by a head.TheScreamingEagles said:Remain up 2%, Leave obviously down 2%
Betfair makes Dave the winner.
To be honest I'm not entirely sure why.0 -
"Little England" as a phrase does rather bring to mind the point that Leave may well break up the UK. It is designed to appeal to those older generation folk who would not like that.kjohnw said:
Little England is what Junker and Merkel and Hollande want us to be in the EU with our hands tied by the other 27 members over ruling us . Great Britain is what we can be outside the EU trading freely with the rest of the world and being a beacon of freedom and democracy rather than a subservient member of the EUSSRRazedabode said:
Does that line not risk, well, you know, pissing English voters off?Scott_P said:It's obviously the line to take...
@George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn0 -
Amazingly, as well as being a Supreme Court judge (having previously been the pre-eminent barrister of his generation) he is also a professional historian.DavidL said:
It is a brilliant speech, putting several professional historians to shame.AlastairMeeks said:Anyone interested in Magna Carta with a bit of time to spare should read this speech by the cleverest man in England:
https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/speech-150309.pdf
A couple of years ago now I was involved in a Supreme Court case. My learned senior was being his usual earnest self about some arcane piece of Scottish conveyancing and Sumption was sitting there looking utterly bored . After about half an hour he just commented, is this case not really about x, y and z and is the answer not clearly A? There was a slightly stunned silence as everyone realised, yes, yes it was.0 -
And waved the rules....TheScreamingEagles said:
Britain was at her best when she ruled the waves.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. We want to be pirates and corsairs on the open seas. What is more romantic than that!!!Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, there's definitely huge millage in making the jingoistic case for Remain - Good old Britain in the thick of it, saving those Europeans from themselves again. Let's have a bit of romance and soaring passion. (Contrast with stale old Leave, the height of whose ambition is turning us into the world's largest ferry port.)
:-)
We can all agree on that.
“We have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed. If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea.”0 -
Brave?GIN1138 said:
These Posh Boys insulting England (population 52m) is an... Interesting strategy when they're trying to win a referendum?Casino_Royale said:
Yup. It's the new attack line.Scott_P said:It's obviously the line to take...
@George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn
Osborne and Cameron incapable of doing anything other than parroting their tried and tested attack lines.
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Osborne's over-borrowing now at £180bn and to approach £240bn by end of 2016.Scott_P said:Hmmmm...
@Jeremy_Hunt: Net EU contributions could only run NHS for 19 days but for the other 346 days NHS needs a strong economy not a Brexit recession#ITVEURef
Annual GDP £60bn lower than Osborne predicted.
Hmmmm...
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Also, instant reaction in my WhatsApp group of friends (most between 25 and 35) - Boring.
The "little England" seems to have gone down like a lead balloon as well. I didn't see it live, but the consensus was that it was completely patronising.0 -
Cameron has a massive, massive problem with immigration. Having previously gone heavy on how bad immigration is, he can't now tell the truth, which is that an open market in a globalised world means immigration and that fact isn't going to change with Brexit. Instead he had to fall back on the line that immigration is being controlled now. Nobody believes it.0
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Interesting. There was a great speech by a Kent Labour councillor I posted the other night, that'd convert you to leave!not_on_fire said:
I'm for Remain but I was unimpressed with Cameron this evening. Looked like he was just going through the motions.BenedictWhite said:
Well, if you were not enthusiastic about either side already then that will not have changed certainly.not_on_fire said:Uninspiring from both sides. I think Farage just edged it though.
Farage was more convincing but his shoutiness was off-putting.
Yes, Farage upsets people, which is why Vote Leave have an independent message. It's a sort of triangulation.0 -
Voter registration discussion http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/7232/surge-registration0
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They must be coordinating with Sturgeon on how hard she will push this in the debate with Boris.foxinsoxuk said:
"Little England" as a phrase does rather bring to mind the point that Leave may well break up the UK. It is designed to appeal to those older generation folk who would not like that.kjohnw said:
Little England is what Junker and Merkel and Hollande want us to be in the EU with our hands tied by the other 27 members over ruling us . Great Britain is what we can be outside the EU trading freely with the rest of the world and being a beacon of freedom and democracy rather than a subservient member of the EUSSRRazedabode said:
Does that line not risk, well, you know, pissing English voters off?Scott_P said:It's obviously the line to take...
@George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn0 -
My respect for Nigel Farage has reached a new level.Scott_P said:I expect this will get some more play in the next couple of days too
@woodstockjag: Bears repeating. ITV news didn't report it. Farage's response to concerns about pharmaceutical industry was "I prefer alternative medicine"0 -
I prefer the Kevin Bloody Wilson linewilliamglenn said:
He's getting it a bit wrong though. He should bellow, "We are fighters and not quitters!"TheScreamingEagles said:
I've noticed him using the don't be quitters line a bit more recently as well.Danny565 said:
I think the "don't go with Farage" line might have some resonance, but "little England" sounds far too sneery, I think.TheScreamingEagles said:It's clear what the focus groups like.
Don't choose the Nigel Farage little Englander option.
"I'm a lover not a fighter and I'd rather f**k than fight!"0 -
You know things are getting fruity when someone brings the EUSSR into play. One step away from Shameron and Bliar.kjohnw said:
Little England is what Junker and Merkel and Hollande want us to be in the EU with our hands tied by the other 27 members over ruling us . Great Britain is what we can be outside the EU trading freely with the rest of the world and being a beacon of freedom and democracy rather than a subservient member of the EUSSRRazedabode said:
Does that line not risk, well, you know, pissing English voters off?Scott_P said:It's obviously the line to take...
@George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn0 -
I'm English, and a bit on the short side. I don't think I'm a racist xenophobe, but clearly Cameron does.0
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Glad I didn't watch it. I have a lot of time for Nigel Farage, mainly because I think just by virtue of being leader of a right wing insurgent populist party, he would be made into a derided and hated figure. Everyone loves Suzanne Evans now, but had she gone through the last GE as UKIP leader, every bit of nastiness, every misjudgement, every personal flaw would have been enlarged until what emerged was a cartoon character; some hectoring bargain bin Thatcher. And all Nigel's detractors and Suzanne's fans here would buy in completely.
But I have to admit there's something not right. The conspiracist in me says there's some tacit understanding between Nigel and the powers that be for him to be some sort of political pantomime villain, and keep saying iffy things. Or it could just be bunker mentality and a short fuse.
Either way, I think it was a huge mistake on the part of Vote Leave not to do everything in its power to incorporate Nigel and Leave.EU. Excluding him has brought no benefit, as he's still totally held up as a representative of the 'Leave Campaign', but they can neither support nor control him in any way.
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Well this is a direct quote from one (32, woman, professional, currently undecided):SeanT said:
The consensus is that Farage is a bit of a xenophobe. The consensus is that Cameron is a bit of a liar.MaxPB said:Also, instant reaction in my WhatsApp group of friends (most between 25 and 35) - Boring.
The "little England" seems to have gone down like a lead balloon as well. I didn't see it live, but the consensus was that it was completely patronising.
I don't think either perception was significantly challenged today, but nor was it badly reinforced.
For me the only line that might cut through is Little England. It is apparent it's been focus-grouped, as Osborne is replaying it, but to me it jars, badly, and will surely be unpopular with key demogs that Cameron needs.
"Is he really calling people who want less immigration little englanders, hasn't he been in favour of less immigration until now?"0 -
All age group I suspect but it is always so, a majority of young people are too busy with their love lives, drinking, clubbing, using social media, studying at university etc to bother with voting, once they get a mortgage, a job and a family that is when a majority will vote ie from about 30murali_s said:
43% turnout amount young voters - is this % of registered voters of % of demographic. Anyway a truly dreadful and quite frankly shameful figure...HYUFD said:
Only 43% of 18-24s voted in the general election in 2015 so if 70% are registered now that could suggest a slightly higher turnout amongst younger voters. 78% of over 65s voted last May so they may also be slightly up.RoyalBlue said:30% of 20-24s not registered, vs 5% for 65+.
Can Remain win on those figures?
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx?view=wide
The election is likely to be won though by the middle aged, ie those aged 35 to 55 who voted Tory last May and Labour under Blair0 -
Impressed.AlastairMeeks said:
For those ultra-rare occasions you can always catch up later.SeanT said:
Well that's a lot of twaddle, Mr Meeks: the TV debates turned the Scottish indyref, especially the second.AlastairMeeks said:
You never need to watch the debate.rcs1000 said:Just to confirm; I don't need to bother watching the "debate", right?
I've not watched an episode of Question Time in 30 years. I don't feel less well-informed for this truancy.
I feel like kicking in the screen if by accident I see ANY politician these days.
And I know I'll read multiple accounts here if something interesting does happen.
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If it's backed up by Sturgeon saying, "Vote Leave and we're off, mate," it might get people's attention.SeanT said:For me the only line that might cut through is Little England. It is apparent it's been focus-grouped, as Osborne is replaying it, but to me it jars, badly, and will surely be unpopular with key demogs that Cameron needs.
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Do you guys know how many of my Facebook friends have even mentioned the debate?
None. Zero. Nada.
In other words, this debate will have no impact whatsoever on the result.0 -
Might encourage Middle England to take them at their word. Don't forget England never got a vote on Scotland leaving.williamglenn said:
If it's backed up by Sturgeon saying, "Vote Leave and we're off, mate," it might get people's attention.SeanT said:For me the only line that might cut through is Little England. It is apparent it's been focus-grouped, as Osborne is replaying it, but to me it jars, badly, and will surely be unpopular with key demogs that Cameron needs.
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By the way Little England is South Pembrokeshire!0
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Perhaps but I expect the election to be closeJobabob said:Paul_Bedfordshire said:This was s fantastic show for Cameron. Farage was trounced. Remain are dead cert now.
Edit: damn, logged into the wrong identity
Ha!
Hispanics will break about 99-1 for Hillary after JudgegateHYUFD said:
RCP average has it 2% lead todayAlistair said:
National polls say 4% leadHYUFD said:
Obama won Florida by 1% and won nationally by 3% in 2012 which suggests Hillary has about a a 1% lead nationally if Trump has a 1% lead in FloridaAlistair said:
In a head to head match up, Trump leads Clinton 45/44. What’s interesting about that is Clinton actually leads 45/34 with independents. But Trump has the slight overall edge because his 83/9 advantage with Republicans is a good deal better than the 77/14 one Clinton has with Democrats.RodCrosby said:
Disappeared? There was a hiatus in the polls.Jobabob said:
Trump is toast walking. I said it long ago. Even when RodCrosby (disappeared) insisted otherwise.TheScreamingEagles said:And so it begins, it'll become a stampede
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740269903945469952
Oh look, here's one today...
6/2-6/5
2016 Florida President
Trump 41% Clinton 40%
PPP
Hmm, I wonder which side has a clear presumptive nominee?
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/740229028632793088
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/0 -
Labour a threat to security but strangely Cameron willing to campaign alongside a man who he was calling a dangerous terrorist sympathiser with links ISIS only a couple weeks ago.EPG said:
They're probably capable, but think one message works best. Remember long-term economic plan? Labour a threat to your security?Casino_Royale said:
Yup. It's the new attack line.Scott_P said:It's obviously the line to take...
@George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn
Osborne and Cameron incapable of doing anything other than parroting their tried and tested attack lines.
People's memories aren't quite that shit.0 -
Video
Man who voted for Cameron tells the truth - we cannot control immigration from inside the EU #ITVEURef #VoteLeave
https://t.co/cD5fAKZCkj0 -
I expect provincial England to vote Leave, it will be big majorities in London, Scotland and NI which will see Remain scrape homeGIN1138 said:
These Posh Boys insulting England (population 52m) is an... Interesting strategy when they're trying to win a referendum?Casino_Royale said:
Yup. It's the new attack line.Scott_P said:It's obviously the line to take...
@George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn
Osborne and Cameron incapable of doing anything other than parroting their tried and tested attack lines.0 -
Isn't that going to push loads of SNP types to vote for leave? That's why she has been very careful in not pushing that idea, if SNP supporters begin to switch to leave in order to agitate for a second referendum, Scotland might end up sleepwalking into a leave vote.williamglenn said:
If it's backed up by Sturgeon saying, "Vote Leave and we're off, mate," it might get people's attention.SeanT said:For me the only line that might cut through is Little England. It is apparent it's been focus-grouped, as Osborne is replaying it, but to me it jars, badly, and will surely be unpopular with key demogs that Cameron needs.
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Little England beyond Wales.welshowl said:By the way Little England is South Pembrokeshire!
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Lord Rob Hayward. Down to where "motorway man" are backing.SeanT said:Newsnight saying some major pundit is calling it for LEAVE. I missed the name. Who was it?
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16 days to save the EU project!0
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How many mentioned John Major's views ?rcs1000 said:Do you guys know how many of my Facebook friends have even mentioned the debate?
None. Zero. Nada.
In other words, this debate will have no impact whatsoever on the result.0 -
Montie
These #RedBoxReact graphs seem to suggest Farage did better than Cameron - not how I read it but there we go https://t.co/2mTlYwhNRN0 -
Good point, but she can balance it by telling Scottish voters it only happens if they vote heavily for Remain.MaxPB said:
Isn't that going to push loads of SNP types to vote for leave? That's why she has been very careful in not pushing that idea, if SNP supporters begin to switch to leave in order to agitate for a second referendum, Scotland might end up sleepwalking into a leave vote.williamglenn said:
If it's backed up by Sturgeon saying, "Vote Leave and we're off, mate," it might get people's attention.SeanT said:For me the only line that might cut through is Little England. It is apparent it's been focus-grouped, as Osborne is replaying it, but to me it jars, badly, and will surely be unpopular with key demogs that Cameron needs.
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Quite.Wanderer said:
Indeed. If one could only predict where the sentiment would be. Anyway, Leave is creeping back in. Nothing to see here.BenedictWhite said:
I think we ignore how much sentiment drives markets.Wanderer said:
Leave 3.85 now. The market clearly does think Cameron won that on some level, if only by a head.TheScreamingEagles said:Remain up 2%, Leave obviously down 2%
Betfair makes Dave the winner.
To be honest I'm not entirely sure why.
I keep saying about the money markets that they appear to me to be driven by crack more than sense. If I could find a LIFFE account somewhere I could make some money.0 -
Isn't that going to push loads of SNP types to vote for leave? That's why she has been very careful in not pushing that idea, if SNP supporters begin to switch to leave in order to agitate for a second referendum, Scotland might end up sleepwalking into a leave vote.williamglenn said:
If it's backed up by Sturgeon saying, "Vote Leave and we're off, mate," it might get people's attention.SeanT said:For me the only line that might cut through is Little England. It is apparent it's been focus-grouped, as Osborne is replaying it, but to me it jars, badly, and will surely be unpopular with key demogs that Cameron needs.
0 -
They don't look "macho" at all. They look as though they're demonstrating to everyone that they haven't shit themselves. Osborne looks insane, and Cameron looks like an Etonian (not an Old one) imitating a school cleaner.0 -
Roger isn't saying Farage is or was racist just that the clip the news showed portrayed him as such, which Roger felt was unfair. I agree.john_zims said:@Roger
'The news is much unkinder to Farage than when seen in its entirety. Farage on the news came across as a racist.'
Were the two non white members of the audience that expressed their concerns about uncontrolled immigration Racists ?0 -
It sounds like its been focused grouped at a Notting Hill dinner party by people who think they're more sophisticated than they are.SeanT said:
The consensus is that Farage is a bit of a xenophobe. The consensus is that Cameron is a bit of a liar.MaxPB said:Also, instant reaction in my WhatsApp group of friends (most between 25 and 35) - Boring.
The "little England" seems to have gone down like a lead balloon as well. I didn't see it live, but the consensus was that it was completely patronising.
I don't think either perception was significantly challenged today, but nor was it badly reinforced.
For me the only line that might cut through is Little England. It is apparent it's been focus-grouped, as Osborne is replaying it, but to me it jars, badly, and will surely be unpopular with key demogs that Cameron needs.
There's going to be a lot of England flags being flown in the next couple of weeks.
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I think he knows he's lost the wwc vote, he's going for the people who are still remain and don't knows. WWC will as you said run over their grannies to vote out.SeanT said:Really big mistake to repeat the LITTLE ENGLAND line
The people he needs to win over are the white working classes in England
Stupid. A basic error early Cameron would not have made.0 -
I wonder how the great Britain little England line will play in Scotland where we recently establish that 45 percent of the population don't want to be Great British.0
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Except that we do not have to choose, we can have both Europe and the open seas. Indded both Leave and Remain agree on that (though disagree that the other side will allow it!)BenedictWhite said:
And waved the rules....TheScreamingEagles said:
Britain was at her best when she ruled the waves.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. We want to be pirates and corsairs on the open seas. What is more romantic than that!!!Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, there's definitely huge millage in making the jingoistic case for Remain - Good old Britain in the thick of it, saving those Europeans from themselves again. Let's have a bit of romance and soaring passion. (Contrast with stale old Leave, the height of whose ambition is turning us into the world's largest ferry port.)
:-)
We can all agree on that.
“We have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed. If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea.”0 -
We can control immigration, other countries do.FF43 said:Cameron has a massive, massive problem with immigration. Having previously gone heavy on how bad immigration is, he can't now tell the truth, which is that an open market in a globalised world means immigration and that fact isn't going to change with Brexit. Instead he had to fall back on the line that immigration is being controlled now. Nobody believes it.
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Government Voter Registration website goes down....0
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I suspect Nicola Sturgeon is going to break my irony meter on Thursday night.Alistair said:I wonder how the great Britain little England line will play in Scotland where we recently establish that 45 percent of the population don't want to be Great British.
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I would agree (and that's why the FTSE100 might rocket on a Leave vote), but the FTSE250 I s up by just as much since February as the 100, if not very slightly more (15k to 17k vs 5500 to 6200, give or take). If it's foreign earnings driven the 100 should lag shouldn't it?foxinsoxuk said:
My stocks have picked up a bit, but most of them (HSBC, Rio Tinto etc) make most of their earnings outside the UK. With earnings in USD their value goes up when Sterling slides. To a degree it is a hedge against depreciation.oldpolitics said:So all this money that's flooding out of the UK because of Brexit risk...
The stock market is up
Bond yields are down
House prices are up
What exactly was this money invested in before it was moved offshore? Fine wine and classic cars?
That said of course the pound is up against the dollar since February.0 -
Somebody lock up Emily Thornberry.another_richard said:
There's going to be a lot of England flags being flown in the next couple of weeks.0 -
What Farage was actually talking about was the regulation on herbal minor remedies that big pharma got through to close down that market,rcs1000 said:
My respect for Nigel Farage has reached a new level.Scott_P said:I expect this will get some more play in the next couple of days too
@woodstockjag: Bears repeating. ITV news didn't report it. Farage's response to concerns about pharmaceutical industry was "I prefer alternative medicine"0 -
Has someone in the South Manchester area just said anything a little bit blasphemous? I have just heard the loudest thunderclap I have ever heard in my life.0
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Four of my Facebook friends regularly post pro-Remain posts. The rest post mostly about their kids,cats or holidays like normal folk do.rcs1000 said:Do you guys know how many of my Facebook friends have even mentioned the debate?
None. Zero. Nada.
In other words, this debate will have no impact whatsoever on the result.0 -
I can't help but think Cameron's comments will not go down well with a significant number of voters.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7402999647152578570 -
Maybe it will take a battle-scarred nationalist to dismantle the nationalist case. She's had more practice than anyone on the Brexit side in making their arguments.TheScreamingEagles said:
I suspect Nicola Sturgeon is going to break my irony meter on Thursday night.Alistair said:I wonder how the great Britain little England line will play in Scotland where we recently establish that 45 percent of the population don't want to be Great British.
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They would rather Great Britain than Little England. GB goes down better in Scotland, NI and London and Wales, Little England in provincial England, it is the former Cameron is now targeting to edge over the line, he has pretty much given up on rural, coastal and market town England who will vote LeaveAlistair said:I wonder how the great Britain little England line will play in Scotland where we recently establish that 45 percent of the population don't want to be Great British.
Yougov yesterday had Leave ahead 44% to 41% in the South, 42% to 41% in the Midlands and Wales and 44% to 40% in the North. Remain led 55% to 33% in London and 51% to 39% in Scotland. Across the UK Remain led 43% to 42%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0ofltfa592/Times_Results_160606_EU_Final_Website.pdf0 -
Unfortunately we cannot. Membership of the EU restricts our access to the open seas in so far as it prevents us from making our own trade deals. Of course it also restricts our access to our own fishing grounds as well so in that case it is literally restricting our access to the open seas.foxinsoxuk said:
Except that we do not have to choose, we can have both Europe and the open seas. Indded both Leave and Remain agree on that (though disagree that the other side will allow it!)BenedictWhite said:
And waved the rules....TheScreamingEagles said:
Britain was at her best when she ruled the waves.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. We want to be pirates and corsairs on the open seas. What is more romantic than that!!!Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, there's definitely huge millage in making the jingoistic case for Remain - Good old Britain in the thick of it, saving those Europeans from themselves again. Let's have a bit of romance and soaring passion. (Contrast with stale old Leave, the height of whose ambition is turning us into the world's largest ferry port.)
:-)
We can all agree on that.
“We have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed. If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea.”0 -
I think he's been included - his role is absolutely planned. He's targeting where he's most impactful.Luckyguy1983 said:Glad I didn't watch it. I have a lot of time for Nigel Farage, mainly because I think just by virtue of being leader of a right wing insurgent populist party, he would be made into a derided and hated figure. Everyone loves Suzanne Evans now, but had she gone through the last GE as UKIP leader, every bit of nastiness, every misjudgement, every personal flaw would have been enlarged until what emerged was a cartoon character; some hectoring bargain bin Thatcher. And all Nigel's detractors and Suzanne's fans here would buy in completely.
But I have to admit there's something not right. The conspiracist in me says there's some tacit understanding between Nigel and the powers that be for him to be some sort of political pantomime villain, and keep saying iffy things. Or it could just be bunker mentality and a short fuse.
Either way, I think it was a huge mistake on the part of Vote Leave not to do everything in its power to incorporate Nigel and Leave.EU. Excluding him has brought no benefit, as he's still totally held up as a representative of the 'Leave Campaign', but they can neither support nor control him in any way.0 -
Some interesting information on Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. Didn't the MP for Stratford-on-Avon join as chief strategy officer?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/24/tory-mp-nadhim-zahawi-lands-job-with-oil-firm-gulf-keystone
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GKP.L&display=discussion&id=11625259&action=detail0 -
I am waiting for Cameron to do 'the roar!!!'John_N4 said:
They don't look "macho" at all. They look as though they're demonstrating to everyone that they haven't shit themselves. Osborne looks insane, and Cameron looks like an Etonian (not an Old one) imitating a school cleaner.0 -
Thursday night 8pm - 10pm ITV
Senior politicians appearing to back remaining in the European Union are Angela Eagle and Amber Rudd, representing Britain Stronger In Europe, and SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon.
Representing the arguments for leaving the European Union are Boris Johnson, Andrea Leadsom, and Gisela Stuart, from Vote Leave.0 -
She can't say that, all she can say is that if we vote leave she will hold another referendum. She knows that, we know that.williamglenn said:
If it's backed up by Sturgeon saying, "Vote Leave and we're off, mate," it might get people's attention.SeanT said:For me the only line that might cut through is Little England. It is apparent it's been focus-grouped, as Osborne is replaying it, but to me it jars, badly, and will surely be unpopular with key demogs that Cameron needs.
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Will it though? Has there been any recent polling in England/Wales about what we think of the UK? I suspect there is an indifferent acceptance that the Scots aren't around for much longer. And certainly no willingness to bend over backwards to keep them in the union. (I say this as someone half-Scottish who has holidayed regularly in Scotland and who likes both the country and the people. But, you know, they'll still be judt up the M6 - they're not about to sail off to the mid-Atlantic...)williamglenn said:
If it's backed up by Sturgeon saying, "Vote Leave and we're off, mate," it might get people's attention.SeanT said:For me the only line that might cut through is Little England. It is apparent it's been focus-grouped, as Osborne is replaying it, but to me it jars, badly, and will surely be unpopular with key demogs that Cameron needs.
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Remember Zac Goldsmith, the burner phone of British politics.Alistair said:
Labour a threat to security but strangely Cameron willing to campaign alongside a man who he was calling a dangerous terrorist sympathiser with links ISIS only a couple weeks ago.EPG said:
They're probably capable, but think one message works best. Remember long-term economic plan? Labour a threat to your security?Casino_Royale said:
Yup. It's the new attack line.Scott_P said:It's obviously the line to take...
@George_Osborne: Great Britain not Little England. That's who we are. That's what's at stake. PM at his best #StrongerIn
Osborne and Cameron incapable of doing anything other than parroting their tried and tested attack lines.
People's memories aren't quite that shit.0 -
In the context of leaving the EU I think it makes a psychological difference. It's one thing to be an island off the coast of Europe (and some other bits), but quite another to be half an island.Cookie said:
Will it though? Has there been any recent polling in England/Wales about what we think of the UK? I suspect there is an indifferent acceptance that the Scots aren't around for much longer. And certainly no willingness to bend over backwards to keep them in the union. (I say this as someone half-Scottish who has holidayed regularly in Scotland and who likes both the country and the people. But, you know, they'll still be judt up the M6 - they're not about to sail off to the mid-Atlantic...)williamglenn said:
If it's backed up by Sturgeon saying, "Vote Leave and we're off, mate," it might get people's attention.SeanT said:For me the only line that might cut through is Little England. It is apparent it's been focus-grouped, as Osborne is replaying it, but to me it jars, badly, and will surely be unpopular with key demogs that Cameron needs.
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There's a nasty sneery attitude to it.SeanT said:
Yes, I agree, saying LITTLE ENGLAND just as we're all about to support England?!another_richard said:
It sounds like its been focused grouped at a Notting Hill dinner party by people who think they're more sophisticated than they are.SeanT said:
The consensus is that Farage is a bit of a xenophobe. The consensus is that Cameron is a bit of a liar.MaxPB said:Also, instant reaction in my WhatsApp group of friends (most between 25 and 35) - Boring.
The "little England" seems to have gone down like a lead balloon as well. I didn't see it live, but the consensus was that it was completely patronising.
I don't think either perception was significantly challenged today, but nor was it badly reinforced.
For me the only line that might cut through is Little England. It is apparent it's been focus-grouped, as Osborne is replaying it, but to me it jars, badly, and will surely be unpopular with key demogs that Cameron needs.
There's going to be a lot of England flags being flown in the next couple of weeks.
Bizarre. And risky. Another sign REMAIN are worried they are losing. They wouldn't take this punt if they were well ahead.
Continuing the football analogy its reminiscent of all the sneery comments about 'Little Leicester' and how they were certain to be overtaken by the big (ie rich) clubs.
Also reminiscent of the phrase 'taxes are only for the little people'.
Even of Cameron's 'cycle and chauffer' photostunt.
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Or the pelvic thrust?Richard_Tyndall said:
I am waiting for Cameron to do 'the roar!!!'John_N4 said:
They don't look "macho" at all. They look as though they're demonstrating to everyone that they haven't shit themselves. Osborne looks insane, and Cameron looks like an Etonian (not an Old one) imitating a school cleaner.0 -
How is the referendum count going to be reported, is it going to be by council area or constituency or what?0
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Why did GKP's share price tank? I thought they could extract oil despite the troubles in the region. I remember when it was around £1 now it is £0.04...hunchman said:Some interesting information on Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. Didn't the MP for Stratford-on-Avon join as chief strategy officer?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/24/tory-mp-nadhim-zahawi-lands-job-with-oil-firm-gulf-keystone
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GKP.L&display=discussion&id=11625259&action=detail0 -
Yes, look at the figures. Yougov yesterday had Leave ahead 44% to 41% in the South, 42% to 41% in the Midlands and Wales and 44% to 40% in the North. Remain led 55% to 33% in London and 51% to 39% in Scotland. Across the UK Remain led 43% to 42%SeanT said:
As an aside, this is, of course, catastrophic for Cameron's future as prime minister, and as Tory leader. The Tory party IS Little England - the little battalions in the shires and burbs.HYUFD said:
They would rather Great Britain than Little England. GB goes down better in Scotland, NI and London and Wales, Little England in provincial England, it is the former Cameron is now targeting to edge over the line, he has pretty much given up on rural, coastal and market town England who will vote LeaveAlistair said:I wonder how the great Britain little England line will play in Scotland where we recently establish that 45 percent of the population don't want to be Great British.
Cameron has clearly accepted his career is nearly over.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0ofltfa592/Times_Results_160606_EU_Final_Website.pdf
So Cameron is going to scrape over the line if Remain win having lost Tory England, which is why I would agree that he will not be going on too long as Tory leader after this referendum and Osborne is unlikely to succeed him either0 -
So if Cameron is Prince George, who is his Blackadder?Richard_Tyndall said:
I am waiting for Cameron to do 'the roar!!!'John_N4 said:
They don't look "macho" at all. They look as though they're demonstrating to everyone that they haven't shit themselves. Osborne looks insane, and Cameron looks like an Etonian (not an Old one) imitating a school cleaner.0 -
You can imagine him in the green room doing ridiculous power poses to psych himself up.Wanderer said:
Or the pelvic thrust?Richard_Tyndall said:
I am waiting for Cameron to do 'the roar!!!'John_N4 said:
They don't look "macho" at all. They look as though they're demonstrating to everyone that they haven't shit themselves. Osborne looks insane, and Cameron looks like an Etonian (not an Old one) imitating a school cleaner.0 -
Little Englanders who vote leave according to Dave,standing next to world leaders while they threaten our country,standing next to leftwing political figures while they insult his party - did someone mention his popularity falling.0
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This is Nicola's problem
@JimFairlie: A Robertson SNP MP "prefer remain EU with friends, neighbours, key trading partners in England..."If they're so precious why leave UK?
Every time an SNP spokesperson makes a pro-union comment, replace EU with UK and they look like numpties0 -
No, because the EU does not allow us to forge our open sea links.foxinsoxuk said:
Except that we do not have to choose, we can have both Europe and the open seas. Indded both Leave and Remain agree on that (though disagree that the other side will allow it!)BenedictWhite said:
And waved the rules....TheScreamingEagles said:
Britain was at her best when she ruled the waves.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nah. We want to be pirates and corsairs on the open seas. What is more romantic than that!!!Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, there's definitely huge millage in making the jingoistic case for Remain - Good old Britain in the thick of it, saving those Europeans from themselves again. Let's have a bit of romance and soaring passion. (Contrast with stale old Leave, the height of whose ambition is turning us into the world's largest ferry port.)
:-)
We can all agree on that.
“We have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed. If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea.”0 -
Good evening.
I watched the debate this evening and I did not find it too illuminating. Nigel Farage was his usual grating self, and I don't think David Cameron was at his strongest. I was hoping for a little more back and forth between them. I felt it was a small win for David as he just comes across as more pleasant than Nigel. The Brexit people should have used Michael Gove or that Asian lady. They both come over very well.
I look forward to the next debate. I hope it will be more interesting!0
