politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe: The final countdown, Sixteen days to go
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe: The final countdown, Sixteen days to go
Latest Betfair odds. Nearly £21 million matched so far this could be the biggest event in political betting history pic.twitter.com/IlPAYfGpJA
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EU wants to shut down freedom of speech and religion from the Internet. Another reason to leave
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/rattled-cameron-holds-press-conference-to-try-to-change-eu-referendum-debate/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
He has lost whether we Remain or Leave. He ceased to be useful when his personal poll ratings plumbed new depths.
If the voters don't like what they do between now and the next election then they can kick them out.
Unilever CEO talks about the tariffs on ice-cream. This is DESPERATE.
Someone tell him that there are no tarrifs on goods across Europe between Iceland and Yugoslavia.....
"Ever Decreasing Liberty"
Removing things that the authorities dont like within 24 hours is as futile as trying to stop people posting about superinjunctions on those sites.
It will just go viral and be reposted and retweeted and published on sites like Guidos with serveds outside the EU who dont give a 4X what EU censors think
Oh, wait....
Clearly he is the thinking man's eurosceptic so one would be foolish to give some credence to his views.
Message seems to be Vote Leave get Remain. Could be effective.
IF LEAVE wins
AND Cameron executes Article 50 almost immediately
AND Cameron goes to the commons and gets a HOC vote that Cameron's government will lead the negotiations to exit EU and take UK into EEA
AND makes that vote a confidence motion
AND he wins...
...then he's won! A brand new mandate, a legitimate position ("..It's the next best thing..."), he royally f***s Gove, and gets a thirteenth regeneration. OK, not that last bit...
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/06/how-important-are-tv-debates-deciding-eu-referendum
Hmm.
What is going on?
Obviously, the main point (Remain/Leave) can't be conceded, but if the country is really evenly split, it is silly to say (as the EU undoubtedly will if its Remain) that it means a 100% endorsement of the winning side.
(Crikey hasn't the world changed)
It stands to reason that a transitional plan would be part of that, in my view.
Can you think of a country that wasn't?
If it's 55/45 less so and so on and so forth.
What we are seeing though, is the whites of their eyes.
Fun, no?
If what he means is that a 51/49 Leave win should mean EEA then he can reasonably argue that a 51/49 Remain win should too and press Cameron to sign up to that.
To understand Hannan's response you must understand what he wants. I know many here admire Hannan (I don't), and if memory serves I think some have met him (Casino Royale?) so in deference to their feelings I won't bang on. If you want to find out why I think Hannan said what he said, see below."
Hannan wants EFTA. He doesn't have a problem with free movement of workers and supports taking higher numbers of refugees and immigrants in general.
However, he concedes that immigration would have broader support if we had sovereign control over numbers and terms.
I know, because he told me.
Welcome back!
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740269903945469952
http://fortune.com/2016/06/06/stanford-swimmer-assault/
Anyone fancy a PB fantasy football league for the Euros?
If so, what is the best site?
But I realise it's possible that he's just saying what's in his head.
- His assumption was that Remain would win
- He wanted to make the result as close as possible and use it to argue that the status quo wouldn't wash and push for EEA
- It's started to look like Leave could actually win outright which would throw a spanner in the works of this plan
- He's back-peddling
The Last Boy Scout would be turning in his tent.
I said I was probably going to leave and I probably am. I waste too much time here really.
Trouble is, will anyone listen to his answers?
And I think quite a few questioners in the audience just want to attack him.
Just in case you are wondering why his price is drifting.
In response to the question "Thinking about the current debate over Britain’s membership of the European Union and the referendum, how much do you trust the statements and claims made by the following people?", the "Don't Knows" broke as follows:
- Cameron: Trust 15 Do Not Trust 60
- Farage: Trust 14, Do Not Trust 56
If we're splitting hairs, they are very marginally less likely to trust Cameron than Farage. That doesn't suggest to me that Cameron is going to be any more persuasive.
The more telling statistic is this: only 36% of undecideds are certain to vote. So in practice most won't (unless you believe that overall turnout will be well above 67%, the % of the overall YouGov sample who declared themselves certain to vote). I think that shifts in opinion amongst those already declared for one camp or the other are more important. (i.e. people shifting from Leave or Remain to undecided).
Ugh!
In 1.38
Out 3.6