politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What are Remain doing wrong, part. II.

MaxPB said:

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:

I mentioned this on the previous topic, I've noticed an uptick in Tory members willing to back Boris in a final two, even vs Cameron who was previously so far out in front that I doubt Boris would have challenged him. His last couple of weeks have definitely helped him shore up his support among members, and many feel that he now has come out too strongly in favour of Leave to go native if he became PM after Brexit.

This is Boris we're talking about, right?

The one and only.

Must be this one then:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/21/boris-johnson-eu-brexit-supports_n_9286400.html

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.

Now that is an achievement.

I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.

We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.

Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments.
I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).

Concanvasser said:

Plato Maxpb- I can only agree and very strange it feels to. I am increasingly more in tune with left Leavers (and left UKIP like Paddy O'Flynn) than the Cameroon/Osbornite ascendency. The I could seriously see myself voting Labour if the candidate was a Leaver- which would have been unthinkable for me 6 months ago. The Tory party is now far more rancorously divided than the 90's.

My own feelings reflect that from a different viewpoint. I've reluctantly voted Conservative at the last two GEs because, although I'd much prefer to vote Labour, the issue of sound finances has ruled them out for me.

But I've discovered that the EU is an issue which beats even sound finances - any government is only for 5 years max, EU membership (eventually) is going to be forever. We've no vote on the powerful in the EU.

If we don't get the opportunity to vote the EU blighters out regularly, then we need to Leave.

If that means voting in (for 5 years) a set of UK blighters I wouldn't ordinarily look at, then so be it, I'm afraid.

midwinter said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.

Now that is an achievement.

I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.

We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.

Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments.
I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).

I don't know, there were Tory members on here talking about the left of the Tory party and right of the Labour party joining together and forming a new political movement based on love of the EU. As I said in the previous topic, apparently nothing is sacred and everything can be sacrificed at the altar if the EU for some Tory remainers. Obviously I'm not saying you are one of them.

weejonnie said:

AnneJGP said:

david_herdson said:

I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd

Immediate thought: wow - big call.

Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.

We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.

Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.

Is it known what Leave needs in England (and Wales?) to cope with Scotland, NI and Gibraltar going heavily Remain?

(edited to add, good afternoon, everyone.)

Good afternoon.

Population of England : 53 million
Population of Wales : 3 Million
Population of Scotland : 5.3 million.
Population of N. Ireland: 1.8M
European residents : 1.5M

Assuming Everyone other than England/ Wales votes 60 -40 in favour of remain, then England/ Wales have to vote 52 - 48 in favour of Leave.

Thank you, that's very helpful.

Indigo said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

PeterC said:

TonyE said:

Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.

But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.

As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.

And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.

Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "The End is Nigh"

Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "My End is Nigh"

He needs to stop behaving like an "end" if he wants his party to be on speaking terms after the referendum that's for sure.

He has gone beyond the pale on this. He has said goodbye to his party.

MarqueeMark said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

PeterC said:

TonyE said:

Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.

But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.

As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.

And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.

Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "The End is Nigh"

Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "My End is Nigh"

Osborne is like the guy with a sandwich board on Oxford Street which has an arrow indicating the direction of the GOLF SALE....

But he would put off the customers.

Casino_Royale said:

midwinter said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.

Now that is an achievement.

I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.

We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.

Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments.
I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).

Steven Whately was considering it, for one.

Fair enough, but Corbyn? Really?

@MrHarryCole: BJ: "£ will go where it will over the short term. But, believe me, in long term you can look forward to fantastic success for this country"

AnneJGP said:

Concanvasser said:

Plato Maxpb- I can only agree and very strange it feels to. I am increasingly more in tune with left Leavers (and left UKIP like Paddy O'Flynn) than the Cameroon/Osbornite ascendency. The I could seriously see myself voting Labour if the candidate was a Leaver- which would have been unthinkable for me 6 months ago. The Tory party is now far more rancorously divided than the 90's.

My own feelings reflect that from a different viewpoint. I've reluctantly voted Conservative at the last two GEs because, although I'd much prefer to vote Labour, the issue of sound finances has ruled them out for me.

But I've discovered that the EU is an issue which beats even sound finances - any government is only for 5 years max, EU membership (eventually) is going to be forever. We've no vote on the powerful in the EU.

If we don't get the opportunity to vote the EU blighters out regularly, then we need to Leave.

If that means voting in (for 5 years) a set of UK blighters I wouldn't ordinarily look at, then so be it, I'm afraid.

Reading that I'm struck by how the symbolism of democracy is as important as the substance in ensuring continued public consent.

The problem comes when you realise that even hiring and firing the UK blighters is not sufficient to exercise the kind of control that you would like to see.

Looking ahead at the economic week, we've got trade figures due on Thursday. Of I were the leave campaign I would time the economic policy/view to coincide with the release of the trade figures. We have them down as a £12bn deficit with the EU and a £2bn deficit with non-EU nations. This will be the last chance, IMO, to push the strength of our trade with the rest of the world and our EU trade weakness, and why the economic case for remaining is not worth the compromise that the remain side are putting across.

AnneGJP- that is v.interesting. I wonder if we are straws in the wind for a bigger change?. I would much rather have a freely elected socialist Government in the UK (nationalising the railways and doing whatever else they were elected to do) than a free market right of centre unelected EU government in perpetuity.

MaxPB said:

midwinter said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.

Now that is an achievement.

I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.

We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.

Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments.
I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).

I don't know, there were Tory members on here talking about the left of the Tory party and right of the Labour party joining together and forming a new political movement based on love of the EU. As I said in the previous topic, apparently nothing is sacred and everything can be sacrificed at the altar if the EU for some Tory remainers. Obviously I'm not saying you are one of them.

I suspect Remain Tories will find it much easier to carry on supporting the party if they lose as it really isnt such a big deal to them as it is to Leavers. As you said most of us are supporting remain reluctantly out of loyalty to a man who led the party to the first majority for 20 odd years.

midwinter said:

Casino_Royale said:

midwinter said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.

Now that is an achievement.

I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.

We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.

Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments.
I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).

Steven Whately was considering it, for one.

Fair enough, but Corbyn? Really?

I don't understand it mate. You'll have to ask him.

Scott_P said:

@chrisshipitv: Official: line up for @itv Thurs debate
Leave: @BorisJohnson @GiselaStuart @andrealeadsom
Remain: @NicolaSturgeon @angelaeagle @AmberRudd_MP

That should be quite good, actually.

Scott_P said:

LadyBucket said:

Mrs Balls was booed.

@YvetteCooperMP: After debate on @VictoriaLIVE this am, more than twice as many of the undecided in the audience switch to Remain than to Leave. Good result

These will be BBC "undecideds " then? Yeah, right....

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

@chrisshipitv: Official: line up for @itv Thurs debate
Leave: @BorisJohnson @GiselaStuart @andrealeadsom
Remain: @NicolaSturgeon @angelaeagle @AmberRudd_MP

That should be quite good, actually.

Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.

Indigo said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Indigo said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

PClipp said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.

For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating.
Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........

Something very similar happened, I think, Mr Betting, with the AV Referendum. Labour let us all down then too.

The organising head of the winning No2AV is also the organising head of Vote LEAVE.

We have been assured many times of his acumen and the brilliance of appointing him.

and it does look like Matthew Elliott is well ahead of Will Straw. This referendum (if won) will be 3 in a row victories for Matthew.

I am not sure how Will Straw was offered the job even, I mean yes he has obvious connections, but other that than he appears to have been a third rate wonk and political bag carrier, and the public didn't like him enough to elect him in Rossendale and Darwen.

Yes. Such a track record of losing elections such as increasing the Conservative majority by 1,000 at the seat he stood in at GE2015. Another wonder in the REMAIN team is their strategy director Ryan, who was head of the Lib Dem campaign at GE2015. A remarkable record to base a campaign on.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

I still think we are on for a remain victory but by a smaller margin. Primarily because I'm still in disbelief that leave could actually win this thing as well. I expected remain to be pulling ahead comfortably by this stage - I totally underestimated the publics overall disdain toward the EU

Scott_P said:

williamglenn said:

Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.

BoJo and 6 women. What could possibly go wrong?

@BBCVickiYoung: Backbench MP Boris Johnson the most junior figure in this line up! https://t.co/TSazPfCOSY

6 women?

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dr_spyn said:

If Sturgeon can do this for Remain, why can't Corbyn?

The list of things that Nicola can do and Corbyn can't is a long one...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

williamglenn said:

Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.

BoJo and 6 women. What could possibly go wrong?

@BBCVickiYoung: Backbench MP Boris Johnson the most junior figure in this line up! https://t.co/TSazPfCOSY

6 women?

Maybe Marina is going to be keeping a close watch from the sidelines?

AnneJGP said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.

Now that is an achievement.

I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.

We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.

I think if it is Brexit then the party will be fine, a few may try and agitate to overturn the result but most MPs are going to fall in line. I've always said that if Dave came out in favour of Leave we would have seen 280 MPs, 80% of members and 70% of voters back Leave. The party is split by loyalty to the leadership, if the leadership changes to back Leave then it wont be split.

I know this is parallel universe stuff, but just supposing Mr Cameron threw his hands up, said "Sorry people, I really got this all wrong and mis-read the feeling in the electorate" and changed sides at this late hour.

What would happen then? I'm inclined to think Leavers would welcome that with acclaim and the electorate would follow him.

Turmoil, complete and utter turmoil and it wouldn't save his job.

MaxPB said:

midwinter said:

I suspect Remain Tories will find it much easier to carry on supporting the party if they lose as it really isnt such a big deal to them as it is to Leavers. As you said most of us are supporting remain reluctantly out of loyalty to a man who led the party to the first majority for 20 odd years.

Yes I agree with that, the main part of the reluctant remainers will get on board with Brexit as soon as the leadership does. There will be a few traitors though who will agitate and force an election given how slim the majority is.

To be fair that's likely whichever side wins. Just can't see where Remainers would go to. If the Lib Dems had more seats/popularity and a more orange book base then I could see that being appealing to some. No Tory is going to touch Labour with a bargepole barring a change of leadership and an almighty shift to the centre.

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

LadyBucket said:

Mrs Balls was booed.

@YvetteCooperMP: After debate on @VictoriaLIVE this am, more than twice as many of the undecided in the audience switch to Remain than to Leave. Good result

These will be BBC "undecideds " then? Yeah, right....

"Undecideds"...

Scott P- The funny thing about the 70's is whilst they were clearly ruinous for the UK plc most ordinary people (accepting those on fixed incomes I totally accept) were probably better off than they are now. in the 70's we had far greater access to affordable housing for the majority and much more equal income distribution. Dominic Sandbrook writes very well on the subject. My point is in a democracy you take what the people give you. I loathe the EU because it is an attempt by an unelected elite who think they know better to permanently govern without the people
.

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

@chrisshipitv: Official: line up for @itv Thurs debate
Leave: @BorisJohnson @GiselaStuart @andrealeadsom
Remain: @NicolaSturgeon @angelaeagle @AmberRudd_MP

That should be quite good, actually.

Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.

She did and she's v good, no doubt, but she has to be careful of sounding like being yet another foreigner ( for that's what she aspires to be ) lining up with Obama, Merkel, Rutte, Lagarde, Carney, et al lecturing the English as to what they should do. Surely too she must have her fingers crossed behind her back because it's a weird old situation she finds herself in, advocating Remain whilst really probably wanting Leave? Sort of "oh Lord let me do well - but not too well eh".

I don't think that's a fair summation of her interests. The SNP would clearly not like to have to face the choice between UK and EU. Their ideal 'full independence' scenario is predicated on England and Wales being in the EU too.

williamglenn said:

logical_song said:

AnneJGP said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Now that is an achievement.

I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.

We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.

I think if it is Brexit then the party will be fine, a few may try and agitate to overturn the result but most MPs are going to fall in line. I've always said that if Dave came out in favour of Leave we would have seen 280 MPs, 80% of members and 70% of voters back Leave. The party is split by loyalty to the leadership, if the leadership changes to back Leave then it wont be split.

I know this is parallel universe stuff, but just supposing Mr Cameron threw his hands up, said "Sorry people, I really got this all wrong and mis-read the feeling in the electorate" and changed sides at this late hour.

What would happen then? I'm inclined to think Leavers would welcome that with acclaim and the electorate would follow him.

Ok, alternative universe and maybe even more likely:
'Thanks chaps for voting Leave and then making me PM, see the things is I've realised Johnny Foreigner isn't such a bad chap and I've changed my mind again. I'm going to renegotiate and stay.' Rt Hon B Johnson MP

"Cripes, now that I've read the detail, this renegotiation of Dave's was actually jolly good. Let's stick with this option and with me as PM I'll keep those Brussels busybodies in check."

Yes, better than my original - it was the 'Cripes' that did it!

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Indigo said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Indigo said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

PClipp said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.

For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating.
Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........

Something very similar happened, I think, Mr Betting, with the AV Referendum. Labour let us all down then too.

The organising head of the winning No2AV is also the organising head of Vote LEAVE.

We have been assured many times of his acumen and the brilliance of appointing him.

and it does look like Matthew Elliott is well ahead of Will Straw. This referendum (if won) will be 3 in a row victories for Matthew.

I am not sure how Will Straw was offered the job even, I mean yes he has obvious connections, but other that than he appears to have been a third rate wonk and political bag carrier, and the public didn't like him enough to elect him in Rossendale and Darwen.

Yes. Such a track record of losing elections such as increasing the Conservative majority by 1,000 at the seat he stood in at GE2015. Another wonder in the REMAIN team is their strategy director Ryan, who was head of the Lib Dem campaign at GE2015. A remarkable record to base a campaign on.

I suspect it was as a direct result of David Camerons leadership that the Tory majority increased in Rossendale and the Lib Dems were wiped out.

AnneJGP said:

weejonnie said:

AnneJGP said:

david_herdson said:

I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd

Immediate thought: wow - big call.

Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.

We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.

Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.

Is it known what Leave needs in England (and Wales?) to cope with Scotland, NI and Gibraltar going heavily Remain?

(edited to add, good afternoon, everyone.)

Good afternoon.

Population of England : 53 million
Population of Wales : 3 Million
Population of Scotland : 5.3 million.
Population of N. Ireland: 1.8M
European residents : 1.5M

Assuming Everyone other than England/ Wales votes 60 -40 in favour of remain, then England/ Wales have to vote 52 - 48 in favour of Leave.

Thank you, that's very helpful.

NP - it is just that the population of England massively outweighs the population elsewhere. Of equal concern to Leave is the fact that Greater London (8.5 Million) is so pro-remain. If we factor that in at the same rate then the rest of England would have to vote 54-46.

williamglenn said:

AnneJGP said:

Concanvasser said:

Plato Maxpb- I can only agree and very strange it feels to. I am increasingly more in tune with left Leavers (and left UKIP like Paddy O'Flynn) than the Cameroon/Osbornite ascendency. The I could seriously see myself voting Labour if the candidate was a Leaver- which would have been unthinkable for me 6 months ago. The Tory party is now far more rancorously divided than the 90's.

My own feelings reflect that from a different viewpoint. I've reluctantly voted Conservative at the last two GEs because, although I'd much prefer to vote Labour, the issue of sound finances has ruled them out for me.

But I've discovered that the EU is an issue which beats even sound finances - any government is only for 5 years max, EU membership (eventually) is going to be forever. We've no vote on the powerful in the EU.

If we don't get the opportunity to vote the EU blighters out regularly, then we need to Leave.

If that means voting in (for 5 years) a set of UK blighters I wouldn't ordinarily look at, then so be it, I'm afraid.

Reading that I'm struck by how the symbolism of democracy is as important as the substance in ensuring continued public consent.

The problem comes when you realise that even hiring and firing the UK blighters is not sufficient to exercise the kind of control that you would like to see.

Yes. Corbyn et al are a headbanging exception . Even Juncker's better than that monstrosity, but take say H Benn. Not someone who shares too much of my domestic world view but at least I wouldn't doubt he'd be "one of ours". At least I can fire him every five years. That symbolism is important. No point electing a Govt if it turns out they're just a county council.

NP - it is just that the population of England massively outweighs the population elsewhere. Of equal concern to Leave is the fact that Greater London (8.5 Million) is so pro-remain. If we factor that in at the same rate then the rest of England would have to vote 54-46.

The sole reason why the progressive lobby in England is so desperate to hang onto freedom of movement and mass immigration.

Where would the progressive cause in England be without London's portalectorate?

chestnut said:

Trade is largely a one-way track where the EU benefit more than the UK.

EU Nations Trade with the UK (Exports / Surplus / Growth / Export to UK Rank)

Germany…………£61bn / £30bn / 1.3% / 3 (i.e we are their 3rd biggest market in the world)
Netherlands…….£31bn / £14bn / 1.6% / 3
France……………£24bn / £6bn / 1.3% / 3
Belgium………… £21bn / £9bn / 1.5% / 4
Italy……………….£16bn / £7bn / 1.0% / 4
Spain………………£14bn / £5bn / 3.4% / 4
Ireland……………£13bn / -£4.2bn / 9.2% / 2
Poland…………… £8bn / £5bn / 3.0% / 2
Sweden……………£7bn / £2bn / 4.2% / 2
Czech Republic….£5bn / £3bn / 3.0% / 5
Denmark………… £3bn / £1bn / 0.6% / 3
Austria…………….£3bn / £1bn / 1.6% / 7
Hungary……………£3bn / £1bn / 0.9% / 8
Portugal…………….£2bn / £1bn / 0.9% / 5
Finland…………… .£2bn / £1bn / 1.6% / 6

The remainder of the EU do not figure in our top 50 global trading partners for exports and imports.

As an aside, I wouldn't expect the UK's trade patterns to change meaningfully post-Brexit.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

For the same reason I was confident that Cameron and the Tories were comfortably going to win the most seats last year.

Or put another way as with the last election there's no way the public will buy a pig in a poke

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

@chrisshipitv: Official: line up for @itv Thurs debate
Leave: @BorisJohnson @GiselaStuart @andrealeadsom
Remain: @NicolaSturgeon @angelaeagle @AmberRudd_MP

That should be quite good, actually.

Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.

She did and she's v good, no doubt, but she has to be careful of sounding like being yet another foreigner ( for that's what she aspires to be ) lining up with Obama, Merkel, Rutte, Lagarde, Carney, et al lecturing the English as to what they should do. Surely too she must have her fingers crossed behind her back because it's a weird old situation she finds herself in, advocating Remain whilst really probably wanting Leave? Sort of "oh Lord let me do well - but not too well eh".

I don't think that's a fair summation of her interests. The SNP would clearly not like to have to face the choice between UK and EU. Their ideal 'full independence' scenario is predicated on England and Wales being in the EU too.

True. She's still in an odd place though all said!

Incidentally, how do the Brexit camp propose to deal with the unresolved British constitutional issues if they win? Ironically I would humbly suggest that we'd need to rush towards federalism to keep the country together.

Scott_P said:

@chrisshipitv: From @TheIFS: Gove was wrong to quote us that we could spend £8bn on NHS if UK votes LEAV as small 0.6% drop in national income also = £8bn

Bit moot. We won't get the savings until we formally quit the EU and enter our new trading relationship.

When we enter our new trading relationship business will have certainty and so national income will rise again, at the same time as the EU savings are realised.

williamglenn said:

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

@chrisshipitv: Official: line up for @itv Thurs debate
Leave: @BorisJohnson @GiselaStuart @andrealeadsom
Remain: @NicolaSturgeon @angelaeagle @AmberRudd_MP

That should be quite good, actually.

Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.

She did and she's v good, no doubt, but she has to be careful of sounding like being yet another foreigner ( for that's what she aspires to be ) lining up with Obama, Merkel, Rutte, Lagarde, Carney, et al lecturing the English as to what they should do. Surely too she must have her fingers crossed behind her back because it's a weird old situation she finds herself in, advocating Remain whilst really probably wanting Leave? Sort of "oh Lord let me do well - but not too well eh".

I don't think that's a fair summation of her interests. The SNP would clearly not like to have to face the choice between UK and EU. Their ideal 'full independence' scenario is predicated on England and Wales being in the EU too.

True. She's still in an odd place though all said!

Incidentally, how do the Brexit camp propose to deal with the unresolved British constitutional issues if they win? Ironically I would humbly suggest that we'd need to rush towards federalism to keep the country together.

Doubt they've given it a moment's thought! Though you make a good point. Lots and lots will be up in the air if it's a Leave vote.

Another point is how does Europe react longer term. Do they just continue sticking their fingers in their ears going "la la la ever closer union", or do they reflect a few months down the line "Christ we really did just lose the Brits. What the hell are we doing wrong?".

weejonnie said:

AnneJGP said:

weejonnie said:

AnneJGP said:

david_herdson said:

I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd

Immediate thought: wow - big call.

Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.

We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.

Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.

Is it known what Leave needs in England (and Wales?) to cope with Scotland, NI and Gibraltar going heavily Remain?

(edited to add, good afternoon, everyone.)

Good afternoon.

Population of England : 53 million
Population of Wales : 3 Million
Population of Scotland : 5.3 million.
Population of N. Ireland: 1.8M
European residents : 1.5M

Assuming Everyone other than England/ Wales votes 60 -40 in favour of remain, then England/ Wales have to vote 52 - 48 in favour of Leave.

Thank you, that's very helpful.

NP - it is just that the population of England massively outweighs the population elsewhere. Of equal concern to Leave is the fact that Greater London (8.5 Million) is so pro-remain. If we factor that in at the same rate then the rest of England would have to vote 54-46.

You conjure up a vision of a post-Remain scenario in which Ms Sturgeon proudly announces to her admiring throng, "Scotland and London together - Yes!!!"

welshowl said:

Another point is how does Europe react longer term. Do they just continue sticking their fingers in their ears going "la la la ever closer union", or do they reflect a few months down the line "Christ we really did just lose the Brits. What the hell are we doing wrong?".

I think the French will control the narrative and it will be 'De Gaulle was right - we should never have let the perfidious Brits join in the first place'.

williamglenn said:

welshowl said:

Another point is how does Europe react longer term. Do they just continue sticking their fingers in their ears going "la la la ever closer union", or do they reflect a few months down the line "Christ we really did just lose the Brits. What the hell are we doing wrong?".

I think the French will control the narrative and it will be 'De Gaulle was right - we should never have let the perfidious Brits join in the first place'.

Quite possibly. But it'd be a world of France plus 26 not France plus 5 with Germany meekly cowed in post war mode like pre 1973. Visegrad has all the potential to prove feisty and I doubt the Danes and Swedes will prove easy. I'd wish them all well though, it's not in our interests to have a bun fight on our doorstep.

If Leave wins, we can only guess what will happen.

But surely one thing is certain - a Labour Government could not, and would not, negotiate the UK's exit from the EU - given that 90% of Labour MPs want to stay in and not one single leading figure in the party wants to leave.

So, if Leave wins:

Either: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM, there is no GE, and the Con Government leads the UK out of the EU.

Or: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM and calls a GE. Con would stand on a policy of leaving the EU. Lab would have to stand on a policy of staying in the EU - but presumably with a renegotiation of some sorts and maybe then another referendum (because they couldn't be seen to ignore the result of this referendum - if they did they would be annihilated).

Of course the above would be a very awkward position for Labour - which is why Labour may not agree to a dissolution of Parliament - meaning no GE.

MikeL said:

If Leave wins, we can only guess what will happen.

But surely one thing is certain - a Labour Government could not, and would not, negotiate the UK's exit from the EU - given that 90% of Labour MPs want to stay in and not one single leading figure in the party wants to leave.

So, if Leave wins:

Either: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM, there is no GE, and the Con Government leads the UK out of the EU.

Or: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM and calls a GE. Con would stand on a policy of leaving the EU. Lab would have to stand on a policy of staying in the EU - but presumably with a renegotiation of some sorts and maybe then another referendum (because they couldn't be seen to ignore the result of this referendum - if they did they would be annihilated).

Of course the above would be a very awkward position for Labour - which is why Labour may not agree to a dissolution of Parliament - meaning no GE.

I imagine in the event of LEAVE winning Jezza would tell his party that the British people have spoken and the game is up?