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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What are Remain doing wrong, part. II.

A few weeks ago I asserted here that focusing on the economy was a strategy that might not be working for Remain because a doubtful public no longer trust economic forecasts, and even amongst those who do, some – especially better off pensioners – might decide that a small economic correction was a price worth paying for greater sovereignty and reduced immigration.

Read the full story here

hunchman

First like leave

Casino_Royale

Interesting post Mortimer. Thanks.

I agree that Remain 40-45% is now looking a value bet, as Chestnut has also pointed out.

TheScreamingEagles

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

But I still followed Mortimer's tip.

PS - This thread is why the AV thread isn't going up today. Blame Mortimer

TonyE

Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.

But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.

As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.

And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.

SouthamObserver

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

nunu

third like Osborne in tory leadership race.

MaxPB

Interesting read, and I have to say it is something I can identify with. I feel politically more aligned to some Labour voters who are in favour of Leave than many Tory members who are sneering at Leave voters.

TonyE

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

But I still followed Mortimer's tip.

PS - This thread is why the AV thread isn't going up today. Blame Mortimer

I'm more cautious. I'd say Remain, around 55% region, based on the idea that even if the polling is fairly accurate, Don't Knows will break for remain.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

But I still followed Mortimer's tip.

PS - This thread is why the AV thread isn't going up today. Blame Mortimer

How does AV work in a referendum? Is Monty Hall involved?

MTimT

FPT @ SouthamObserver

Be fair, Mr Observer. I respect you enormously for your honesty about you own side's failings (both re Labour and Remain). I also respect that you hold a view opposing mine out of deep personal conviction and just as good intentions as my own.

Some of us genuinely believe that Brexit is a better option in the medium-to-long-term, even if there will be a period of uncertainty and perhaps dislocation. This does not require us to lie or exaggerate in the slightest - it is as honestly held a belief as yours that leaving will harm too many. We just differ in our inputs and outputs.

PlatoSaid

@chestnut FPT

"I think most people have stopped seeing this in party political terms, but the Tories and Labour are both being exposed; the Tories faux immigration policy and Labour's faux concern for the working class."

Spot on.

TCPoliticalBetting

To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.

For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating.
Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........

SouthamObserver

MTimT said:

FPT @ SouthamObserver

Be fair, Mr Observer. I respect you enormously for your honesty about you own side's failings (both re Labour and Remain). I also respect that you hold a view opposing mine out of deep personal conviction and just as good intentions as my own.

Some of us genuinely believe that Brexit is a better option in the medium-to-long-term, even if there will be a period of uncertainty and perhaps dislocation. This does not require us to lie or exaggerate in the slightest - it is as honestly held a belief as yours that leaving will harm too many. We just differ in our inputs and outputs.

FPT - I don't consider you to be in the Leave establishment and respect your views and your integrity. I am afraid I do not feel the same about Boris and Gove.

MaxPB

TonyE said:

Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.

But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.

As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.

And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.

I also think that this referendum is now being run in the information age which means people can easily look up the information for themselves abd judge whether it is true or not. On the economic doom mongering, basically the same people who have been telling us for 4 years that the UK is the strongest economy in the developed world are now saying we would face a catastrophic failure if we left the EU. To the uninitiated this makes no sense, to those who look at the figures the catastrophic failure is 2-4% of GDP loss, a figure that doesn't match the rhetoric.

tlg86

Interestingly, the overall Westminster VI has not changed that much in the last couple of months. Perhaps the public don't think this is such a big deal.

PlatoSaid

MaxPB said:

Interesting read, and I have to say it is something I can identify with. I feel politically more aligned to some Labour voters who are in favour of Leave than many Tory members who are sneering at Leave voters.

Quite. I've been sharing a lot of LabourLeave stuff, I think they're calling this right in terms of my values.

JonCisBack

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

I think we are heading for a major recession in the next couple of years whether we vote Leave or Remain.

Leave will get the blame if it is a Leave of course.

TCPoliticalBetting

Mortimer "How would Conservative party leadership be looking presently if Mr Cameron had done a Harold Wilson in this campaign? I’d so almost certainly in a far stronger position."

Yes, someone did do a post on this a few weeks ago, so I agree with you. It would also have been better for REMAIN if Cameron had just STFU and not appeared day in day out to entice Labour voters to come over to his dark side.

Stark_Dawning

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

It depends how Boris plays it. I suspect he'll go for a quasi-EU membership designed to mitigate, as much as possible, most of the adverse Brexit effects. Obviously, the extreme fringe will harp on about immigration, but that will just make them look racist and unpalatable. All the 'nice' Brexit bits - sovereignty, international relations - Boris will own, and he'll be a hero of all but the extreme elements of Leave. He'll be politically untouchable.

williamglenn

MaxPB said:

TonyE said:

Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.

But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.

As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.

And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.

I also think that this referendum is now being run in the information age which means people can easily look up the information for themselves abd judge whether it is true or not. On the economic doom mongering, basically the same people who have been telling us for 4 years that the UK is the strongest economy in the developed world are now saying we would face a catastrophic failure if we left the EU. To the uninitiated this makes no sense, to those who look at the figures the catastrophic failure is 2-4% of GDP loss, a figure that doesn't match the rhetoric.

So 2-4% is just margin of error stuff for you? Perhaps you could convince your side to take the same view about population growth.

JonCisBack

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

But I still followed Mortimer's tip.

PS - This thread is why the AV thread isn't going up today. Blame Mortimer

How does AV work in a referendum? Is Monty Hall involved?

You vote Remain

Monty Hall shows you a vision of the future where there's war, famine, mass unemployment and England lose every penalty shootout they ever make it to

Do you switch?!

Bob__Sykes

FPT:

{{SeanT said:
{{» show previous quotes
{{It's working though, isn't it?
{{
{{Heh.


And it's shit like this that is going to leave the Tory Party torn asunder (probably forever). I don't see how on earth the Tory family can come together after this. And it will all be Cameron's fault, failing to have any backbone with either his party, the electorate or the EU - and treating the whole thing in his essay crisis way and hoping he'll wing it. He still might, but he has to bear the liability for giving his MPs the green light to rip each other to shreds.

rcs1000

FPT:

MaxPB said:

notme said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Bromptonaut said:

Leavers want Parliament to be sovereign.

Leavers explode when Parliamentarians indicate they may exercise sovereignty over matter not covered by referendum.

no contradiction at all, no siree.

A posting which ignores all the Leavers saying it is up to Parliament to decide and to accept the consequences if the public don't like their decision.

The Remainders are trying to push this line of 'oh the horror' whilst most of the Leavers on here are saying what they have always said which is as long as we Leave Parliament can decide our relationship afterwards.

The electorate might be another matter of course.

Let's suppose that a post-Leave Parliament negotiates single market plus free movement. Parliament has decided. Free movement of people in a new relationship with the EU. Call it Associate Membership.

The public throws up its hands in horror...but...but...what about immigration? You lied. Right that's it..

And at the next GE? Whose manifesto do you think will include an end to immigration, the single market and the Associate Membership? Only UKIP.

So we are back where we started.

No because we will be outside of the EU.

Invoking Article 50 is a given. Once that has happened the UK will be leaving the EU. We may well decide to stay in the EEA which has the practical result of being in the single market and having freedom of movement but we will be out of the EU and no longer subject to the vast majority of legislation they impose.

That will hive off a large number of Brexiters who will now be happy with the situation. Assuming that the Leave vote was close there will be a clear majority for the new arrangement.

If we wish to freely trade within the single market as been part of the EEA, we will have to comply with all the judgments of the ECJ to do with minimum standards.

I would find it extraordinary for us to leave the EU but not enter into either a series of bilateral agreements for access to the single market like Switzerland does, or join the EEA and be bound by all the requirements we currently have in regards to single market.

That's not true, EEA nations are under the jurisdiction of the EFTA court not the ECJ.

I think it's a bit more complex than that; as related to minimum product standards, and where an EEA country is selling into the EU, then the ECJ does have jurisdiction. But that's a fairly small set of circumstances.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

SouthamObserver

TCPoliticalBetting said:

To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.

For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating.
Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........

However, imagine a dynamic leader of the opposition. What an opportunity to get in front of the country and to operate at par level with the PM and various members of the cabinet. Think of this referendum happening in 1995, say. Would Tony Blair have sat it out, content to let John Major take on the bastards? No, of course not. He would have demanded parity of coverage and he would have sought to drive the agenda on the TV and in the newspapers. He would have seen, perfectly correctly, that this referendum would be a springboard to power. Corbyn lacks the conviction, the drive and the intelligence to do any of that. He has come out as being for Remain, so he owns Remain's defeat almost as much as Cameron and Osborne.

logical_song

Add another LEAVEr, David Icke.

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

For the same reason I was confident that Cameron and the Tories were comfortably going to win the most seats last year.

MarkHopkins

I cannot see there will be a GE in 2016, any more than there was one in 1990, when Thatcher was unpopular.

SouthamObserver

MaxPB said:

TonyE said:

Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.

But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.

As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.

And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.

I also think that this referendum is now being run in the information age which means people can easily look up the information for themselves abd judge whether it is true or not. On the economic doom mongering, basically the same people who have been telling us for 4 years that the UK is the strongest economy in the developed world are now saying we would face a catastrophic failure if we left the EU. To the uninitiated this makes no sense, to those who look at the figures the catastrophic failure is 2-4% of GDP loss, a figure that doesn't match the rhetoric.

Dave has also spent close on ten years criticising the everything about the EU and denouncing EU immigrants as spongers who drive down wages. You can't blame voters for believing him and wondering why he changed his mind six months ago.

LadyBucket

Victoria Derbyshire chaired another EU Ref debate this morning, which turned into a shouting match, with each side telling each other off for being rude etc. It was badly handled and I'm not sure anyone learned anything new. It seems to me some people just want to be lead by the hand to the Polling Station and told where to put their cross.

Scott_P

@bbclaurak: IFS-Gove's claim we'd have 8bn to spend on NHS is wrong- Brexit wd 'leave us spending less on public services, or taxing or borrowing more'

Scott_P

LadyBucket said:

Victoria Derbyshire chaired another EU Ref debate this morning, which turned into a shouting match, with each side telling each other off for being rude etc. It was badly handled and I'm not sure anyone learned anything new. It seems to me some people just want to be lead by the hand to the Polling Station and told where to put their cross.

Yvette says it was a success

TCPoliticalBetting

Was it just the height of political stupidity when Osborne appeared on tv with the head of the much loved "bankers" Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan? It takes real "genius" to do that. I would put that along with Ed Miliband's tombstone. Were the voters supposed to feel sorry if a few thousand of them had to move jobs?

volcanopete

Pro-EU MPs prepared to rebel and maintain the sovereignity of the uk elected Parliament.Parliament has a clear mandate for a majority of MPs to subvert Brexit and accept that the EUref was merely "advisory" and they choose to reject their advice-perfectly constitutional.I look forward to a guerilla war.Sounds like fun.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/06/pro-eu-mps-could-mount-guerrilla-campaign-to-reverse-brexit-decision

SouthamObserver

Stark_Dawning said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

It depends how Boris plays it. I suspect he'll go for a quasi-EU membership designed to mitigate, as much as possible, most of the adverse Brexit effects. Obviously, the extreme fringe will harp on about immigration, but that will just make them look racist and unpalatable. All the 'nice' Brexit bits - sovereignty, international relations - Boris will own, and he'll be a hero of all but the extreme elements of Leave. He'll be politically untouchable.

Boris will be crucified if he does not deliver on immigration. He has to. He has absolutely no option.

MaxPB

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

TonyE said:

Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.

But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.

As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.

And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.

I also think that this referendum is now being run in the information age which means people can easily look up the information for themselves abd judge whether it is true or not. On the economic doom mongering, basically the same people who have been telling us for 4 years that the UK is the strongest economy in the developed world are now saying we would face a catastrophic failure if we left the EU. To the uninitiated this makes no sense, to those who look at the figures the catastrophic failure is 2-4% of GDP loss, a figure that doesn't match the rhetoric.

So 2-4% is just margin of error stuff for you? Perhaps you could convince your side to take the same view about population growth.

Don't put words in my mouth. I said that the figures don't match the rhetoric from the remain camp. The IMF tried to come up with a 9% loss of GDP which would count as catastrophic, but it was a fantasy figure based on nothing. Even the treasury moved to disown that report. As ever, I'll point out that I'm not particularly fussed by immigration or free movement, quota systems, point based judgements are all too bureaucratic for me, free movement is a market led solution which I'm in favour of, I just don't think that non-residents should qualify for welfare of any kind (benefits, education for their children and healthcare) until they have paid into the system for a number of years and qualify for residency status. That move alone would encourage highly skilled migration and discourage lowly paid migration.

PlatoSaid

TCPoliticalBetting said:

To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.

For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating.
Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........

It's the same school boy errors as deploying Mandelson of all people. @williamglenn said it'd "get in the heads of Leavers". I disagree. Leavers won't pay him any attention at all. He ticks every wrong box on trust.

And trust is what's pushing this towards Leave. When the electorate no longer believes the PM, CoE and too many others with vested interests - the messaging falls apart.

Gove last Friday said "Don't trust politicians, trust yourselves". I'm beginning to wonder if that was a more carefully crafted message than I gave Leave credit for.

I thought it was an attempt to neutralise Remain's endless appeals to authority - it looks like it's got a lot more traction than that.

david_herdson

I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd

Immediate thought: wow - big call.

Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.

We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.

Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.

MarqueeMark

TonyE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

But I still followed Mortimer's tip.

PS - This thread is why the AV thread isn't going up today. Blame Mortimer

I'm more cautious. I'd say Remain, around 55% region, based on the idea that even if the polling is fairly accurate, Don't Knows will break for remain.

Except...the don't knows are reducing and the evidence shows those who have decided have broken decisively for Leave.

I also think that there will be added impetus to Leave from people who might have liked the idea of getting out the EU but thought it had not a cat in Hell's chance of happening. With a poll lead, more will crawl out the woodwork to put their weight behind Leave.

SouthamObserver

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: IFS-Gove's claim we'd have 8bn to spend on NHS is wrong- Brexit wd 'leave us spending less on public services, or taxing or borrowing more'

Yes, of course it would. The government's own economic plan - the one that Gove is signed up to - is dependent on high levels of immigration.

TheBlackPig

TonyE said:

I'm more cautious. I'd say Remain, around 55% region, based on the idea that even if the polling is fairly accurate, Don't Knows will break for remain.

Why should Dont Knows back Remain? If they are dont knows, it means even after 19yrs of the EU, they have their doubts. If they are blasse and are ok with the status quo, why should they make the effort to vote?

david_herdson

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

But I still followed Mortimer's tip.

PS - This thread is why the AV thread isn't going up today. Blame Mortimer

How does AV work in a referendum? Is Monty Hall involved?

You have three votes. Two of them are for a goat. the host opens a door and the Lib Dems lose.

TOPPING

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

MaxPB said:

notme said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Bromptonaut said:

Leavers want Parliament to be sovereign.

Leavers explode when Parliamentarians indicate they may exercise sovereignty over matter not covered by referendum.

no contradiction at all, no siree.

A posting which ignores all the Leavers saying it is up to Parliament to decide and to accept the consequences if the public don't like their decision.

The Remainders are trying to push this line of 'oh the horror' whilst most of the Leavers on here are saying what they have always said which is as long as we Leave Parliament can decide our relationship afterwards.

The electorate might be another matter of course.

Let's suppose that a post-Leave Parliament negotiates single market plus free movement. Parliament has decided. Free movement of people in a new relationship with the EU. Call it Associate Membership.

The public throws up its hands in horror...but...but...what about immigration? You lied. Right that's it..

And at the next GE? Whose manifesto do you think will include an end to immigration, the single market and the Associate Membership? Only UKIP.

So we are back where we started.

No because we will be outside of the EU.

Invoking Article 50 is a given. Once that has happened the UK will be leaving the EU. We may well decide to stay in the EEA which has the practical result of being in the single market and having freedom of movement but we will be out of the EU and no longer subject to the vast majority of legislation they impose.

That will hive off a large number of Brexiters who will now be happy with the situation. Assuming that the Leave vote was close there will be a clear majority for the new arrangement.

If we wish to freely trade within the single market as been part of the EEA, we will have to comply with all the judgments of the ECJ to do with minimum standards.

I would find it extraordinary for us to leave the EU but not enter into either a series of bilateral agreements for access to the single market like Switzerland does, or join the EEA and be bound by all the requirements we currently have in regards to single market.

That's not true, EEA nations are under the jurisdiction of the EFTA court not the ECJ.

I think it's a bit more complex than that; as related to minimum product standards, and where an EEA country is selling into the EU, then the ECJ does have jurisdiction. But that's a fairly small set of circumstances.

Not when the UK joins it won't be.

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

I'd say that as things stand the most likely scenario should economic hardship follows Brexit is that the Tories implode and are finished, and that Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader. Should both those things happen, Labour will take over.

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

For the same reason I was confident that Cameron and the Tories were comfortably going to win the most seats last year.

I also think REMAIN will win it, but claiming it could be by a 15 point margin, as you do, is a brave call.

Presumably you must have wagers on this outcome? - as the odds will be clearly and profitably against.

I do. I think I know the meme Remain are going to use next and Boris admitted defeat on that front this morning.

It is the Ed/SNP paradox. The more likely it looks like happening the less likely it will happen.

Ditto Brexit.

This is the point Leave are going to struggle with. Call it the 'Bottling Factor'

@MrHarryCole: Asked Boris to explain fall in £ after leave poll lead. "The pound will go where it will in the short term". Concession of short term pain

Casino_Royale

david_herdson said:

I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd

Immediate thought: wow - big call.

Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.

We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.

Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.

David, out of curiosity, what's your view (and position) if the UK does vote Leave? What do you think should happen next?

Scott_P

PlatoSaid said:

Gove last Friday said "Don't trust politicians, trust yourselves". I'm beginning to wonder if that was a more carefully crafted message than I gave Leave credit for.

I thought it was an attempt to neutralise Remain's endless appeals to authority - it looks like it's got a lot more traction than that.

He was on TV this morning appealing to authority over security

TonyE

MaxPB said:

TonyE said:

Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.

But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.

As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.

And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.

I also think that this referendum is now being run in the information age which means people can easily look up the information for themselves abd judge whether it is true or not. On the economic doom mongering, basically the same people who have been telling us for 4 years that the UK is the strongest economy in the developed world are now saying we would face a catastrophic failure if we left the EU. To the uninitiated this makes no sense, to those who look at the figures the catastrophic failure is 2-4% of GDP loss, a figure that doesn't match the rhetoric.

I have certainly tried to be part of that process as a blogger, but I have to tell you that I don't think its proven to be as successful as I thought it could have been, something shared by a group of us who pool info. I do think that for the vast majority of people, the BBC and the Print media are absolutely dominant.

MarqueeMark

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

BusPassElvis....

weejonnie

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.

For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating.
Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........

However, imagine a dynamic leader of the opposition. What an opportunity to get in front of the country and to operate at par level with the PM and various members of the cabinet. Think of this referendum happening in 1995, say. Would Tony Blair have sat it out, content to let John Major take on the bastards? No, of course not. He would have demanded parity of coverage and he would have sought to drive the agenda on the TV and in the newspapers. He would have seen, perfectly correctly, that this referendum would be a springboard to power. Corbyn lacks the conviction, the drive and the intelligence to do any of that. He has come out as being for Remain, so he owns Remain's defeat almost as much as Cameron and Osborne.

Blair was always a committed Europhile - Corbyn is known to be Eurosceptic: if he pushes his head too far over the parapet it will be blown off. It is very hard for Labour to persuade their supporters that they are in favour of the EU when too many of them have seen their wages squeezed and the EU has been cursed as the cause. How do you uncurse the EU - in 16 days?

BTW - is there any difficulty in getting hold of a representative sample of Labour voters. The clued-in Guardianistas are Labour, very pro Remain and have access to computers and the time to register on polling sites - does this automatically follow for the traditional Labour voter? Just wondering.

kle4

volcanopete said:

Pro-EU MPs prepared to rebel and maintain the sovereignity of the uk elected Parliament.Parliament has a clear mandate for a majority of MPs to subvert Brexit and accept that the EUref was merely "advisory" and they choose to reject their advice-perfectly constitutional.I look forward to a guerilla war.Sounds like fun.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/06/pro-eu-mps-could-mount-guerrilla-campaign-to-reverse-brexit-decision

Legal, certainly, and would make for an...interesting time, for sure.

Alistair

FTPT

John_N4 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Osborne is in NI today with his doom-mongering message. I expect him to do Wales and Cornwall plus anywhere else that gets EU funding.

He'd better stay away from fishermen!

EU Referendum: Are the Western Isles the most Eurosceptic part of Britain?".

I can report from Stornoway that Vote Leave posters are everywhere and I haven't seen a single Remain poster although I did see one car sticker. True, Yes had more posters on the island than No during the indyref and still lost, but that was different.

The Western Isles voted 70%-30% to leave the EU in 1975. Those figures could be repeated, more or less, in 2016.

The SNP seems to be applying a pro-Remain whip quite effectively on its MSPs. (The reason for pro-EU feeling in the SNP is little to do with "the economy". It's to do with countering the view that they are little Scotlanders. Hence too the use of ludicrous car stickers saying "Ecosse".) But that doesn't mean that those who voted for the SNP in the indyref and the Scottish GE will do what they're told in the EU referendum. I doubt the Scottish Remain % will be more than 1-2% higher than the British figure.

Admittedly, that 1-2% could make the difference between being above 50% and below it.

The argument that runs "vote Remain, because then Remain can win in Scotland and Leave can win in Britain, so we can push for another referendum" has little to no weight among most people.

Hi @John_N4 - I will take £50 at evens that Scotland's Remain vote will be MORE THAN two percentage points higher than the overall result.

LadyBucket

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Mortimer "How would Conservative party leadership be looking presently if Mr Cameron had done a Harold Wilson in this campaign? I’d so almost certainly in a far stronger position."

Yes, someone did do a post on this a few weeks ago, so I agree with you. It would also have been better for REMAIN if Cameron had just STFU and not appeared day in day out to entice Labour voters to come over to his dark side.

I think it's too late now for the PM to shut up, although I wish he would. The question is would the Labour leadership/Alan Johnson then take up the reins and start to play a more active role? I think the answer is No. Hence Harriet Harman's appearance today. The Labour Party are supposed to be the other great party of state and yet they are nowhere in what is the biggest decision the people of this country have to make for many years.

A truly sad state of affairs all round.

PlatoSaid

david_herdson said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

But I still followed Mortimer's tip.

PS - This thread is why the AV thread isn't going up today. Blame Mortimer

How does AV work in a referendum? Is Monty Hall involved?

You have three votes. Two of them are for a goat. the host opens a door and the Lib Dems lose.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

For the same reason I was confident that Cameron and the Tories were comfortably going to win the most seats last year.

So did I. But there's a world of difference between the 289 seats I predicted and the majority they got.

Sounds like blind faith to me.

Jobabob

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

But I still followed Mortimer's tip.

PS - This thread is why the AV thread isn't going up today. Blame Mortimer

I will blame everyone I can, including you.

I was looking forward to it, as I always do with AV threads.

It's time PB stopped flirting with trivialities like the EU ref and instead explored serious issues like AV.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

For the same reason I was confident that Cameron and the Tories were comfortably going to win the most seats last year.

So did I. But there's a world of difference between the 289 seats I predicted and the majority they got.

Sounds like blind faith to me.

True Faith on this Blue Monday.

Anyway back to planning for Brexit.

Play nicely everyone.

Indigo

TheBlackPig said:

TonyE said:

I'm more cautious. I'd say Remain, around 55% region, based on the idea that even if the polling is fairly accurate, Don't Knows will break for remain.

Why should Dont Knows back Remain? If they are dont knows, it means even after 19yrs of the EU, they have their doubts. If they are blasse and are ok with the status quo, why should they make the effort to vote?

Precisely. In follow up research after previous elections when pollsters have tried to examine what people who said "don't know" really meant, they were slightly surprised to discover that quite a lot of them actually, didn't know. Which can probably be taken as a proxy for "didn't care".

I have often wondered what a pollster does when they call someone and its conspicuously obvious that the person on the other end of the phone is maybe not the sharpest pencil in the box, after trying and failing to explain the issue at hand a few times do they say "Shall I just put you down as a 'Don't Know' ?"

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

For the same reason I was confident that Cameron and the Tories were comfortably going to win the most seats last year.

So did I. But there's a world of difference between the 289 seats I predicted and the majority they got.

Sounds like blind faith to me.

True Faith on this Blue Monday.

Anyway back to planning for Brexit.

Play nicely everyone.

Choon.

TheBlackPig

Casino_Royale said:

Sounds like blind faith to me.

If anyone has a crystal ball, do share.

AnneJGP

david_herdson said:

I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd

Immediate thought: wow - big call.

Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.

We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.

Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.

Is it known what Leave needs in England (and Wales?) to cope with Scotland, NI and Gibraltar going heavily Remain?

(edited to add, good afternoon, everyone.)

PlatoSaid

Another forensic post re BBC bias. The interruption rate is marked.

http://news-watch.co.uk/referendum-blog-june-6/

"For many reasons, therefore, this was seriously unbalanced journalism. Marr gave Johnson a far tougher time, and isolated out that the Leave side was conducting a campaign that included a central ‘flat lie’, ‘abominable’ references to Hitler, and general political untruths. No similar claims were put to Sir John Major about controversy (for example) linked to ‘remain’ predictions about the dire economic and social consequences that would follow exit. Marr himself showed his own political bias in the erroneous claims about the origin of the EU, and also ignorance. He compounded that by making this the basis for his claim that Johnson’s conduct had been ‘abominable’.

AnneJGP

Thank you, @Mortimer - an interesting header.

Casino_Royale

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

For the same reason I was confident that Cameron and the Tories were comfortably going to win the most seats last year.

I also think REMAIN will win it, but claiming it could be by a 15 point margin, as you do, is a brave call.

Presumably you must have wagers on this outcome? - as the odds will be clearly and profitably against.

I do. I think I know the meme Remain are going to use next and Boris admitted defeat on that front this morning.

It is the Ed/SNP paradox. The more likely it looks like happening the less likely it will happen.

Ditto Brexit.

This is the point Leave are going to struggle with. Call it the 'Bottling Factor'

@MrHarryCole: Asked Boris to explain fall in £ after leave poll lead. "The pound will go where it will in the short term". Concession of short term pain

I kind of agree but I follow the Casino Royale thesis - the polls are self-adjusting, when it looks like REMAIN are easily winning people go LEAVE, when it looks like LEAVE are winning, the voters get frit and shift REMAIN - and we therefore head to a narrow REMAIN win. Certainly not 15 points.

OK now I gotta do some bloody work. Anon.

Sensible chap.

Casino_Royale

TheBlackPig said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sounds like blind faith to me.

If anyone has a crystal ball, do share.

No one knows what will happen. Not me, not you, nor anyone else.

Those that claim they do are either delusional or lying.

Danny565

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.

For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating.
Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........

However, imagine a dynamic leader of the opposition. What an opportunity to get in front of the country and to operate at par level with the PM and various members of the cabinet. Think of this referendum happening in 1995, say. Would Tony Blair have sat it out, content to let John Major take on the bastards? No, of course not. He would have demanded parity of coverage and he would have sought to drive the agenda on the TV and in the newspapers. He would have seen, perfectly correctly, that this referendum would be a springboard to power. Corbyn lacks the conviction, the drive and the intelligence to do any of that. He has come out as being for Remain, so he owns Remain's defeat almost as much as Cameron and Osborne.

I highly doubt Tony Blair would've allowed himself to be some big evangelist for the EU if he was leader now. For all his flaws, he obviously had a great nose for public opinion back in his early days, and he was well aware that there were many Brits who hated the EU, as well as many who might grudgingly think we're better off staying in but were nonetheless unenthusiastic and wouldn't take well to politicians being all zealous about how good it was.

Actually, if the EU referendum happened while Blair was leader of the opposition in the 90s, I rather suspect he would've taken a similar stance to Corbyn now, funnily enough: he would've said "the EU has many flaws, but on balance we're better remaining", he would've generally tried to keep a low profile on the issue so as not to alienate Eurosceptic voters, and would've mainly attacked the Tories for being a "divided shambles" rather than attacking them for not being pro-EU enough.

david_herdson

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd

Immediate thought: wow - big call.

Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.

We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.

Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.

David, out of curiosity, what's your view (and position) if the UK does vote Leave? What do you think should happen next?

Good questions and ones I might answer in length in a lead article when I've more time.

Short answer: interesting times all round.

Jungleland

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

For the same reason I was confident that Cameron and the Tories were comfortably going to win the most seats last year.

I also think REMAIN will win it, but claiming it could be by a 15 point margin, as you do, is a brave call.

Presumably you must have wagers on this outcome? - as the odds will be clearly and profitably against.

The tails of the remain vote percentage distribution are pretty fat, i actually think there is some value with laddies 70-75 for remain.

Indigo

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

I'd say that as things stand the most likely scenario should economic hardship follows Brexit is that the Tories implode and are finished, and that Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader. Should both those things happen, Labour will take over.

The problem is that Labour haven't learned their lesson about the modern world yet. Even if they manage to drum up a more plausible leader, they might get him elected, but he is going to be sitting in front of a very left-wing NEC and membership. If we are having a time of economic hardship this is not the time for magic money trees and spending sprees otherwise we will be the next Greece, and yet do today's Labour party have any other solution to the woes of the country? They still have to go through that intellectual rebirth of what a centre-left party standards for in a time of not being able to spend much of anyone elses money, and global trade being what it is the near impossibility of raising taxes substantially on anyone.

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

I'd say that as things stand the most likely scenario should economic hardship follows Brexit is that the Tories implode and are finished, and that Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader. Should both those things happen, Labour will take over.

It's a view. A more likely one, IMHO, is UKIP shrinking and a large chunk of it folding back into the Tories.

The question Labour have yet to answer is what sort of party they will be if there is a Brexit, given that the EU defines them so much.

I don't see much evidence of any serious thinking on this front at the moment.

tlg86

Whatever occurs following a leave vote you can bet your life Bercow will be in his element.

Mortimer

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

This doesn't sound far wrong, to be honest.

DC IS surely, at least partly and at least at first, pro-Remain because he fears the implications of plumping all in for Brexit. For the sake of party management, I just wish he hadn't been so fervent about it....

logical_song

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

For the same reason I was confident that Cameron and the Tories were comfortably going to win the most seats last year.

I also think REMAIN will win it, but claiming it could be by a 15 point margin, as you do, is a brave call.

Presumably you must have wagers on this outcome? - as the odds will be clearly and profitably against.

I do. I think I know the meme Remain are going to use next and Boris admitted defeat on that front this morning.

It is the Ed/SNP paradox. The more likely it looks like happening the less likely it will happen.

Ditto Brexit.

This is the point Leave are going to struggle with. Call it the 'Bottling Factor'

@MrHarryCole: Asked Boris to explain fall in £ after leave poll lead. "The pound will go where it will in the short term". Concession of short term pain

If Cameron loses his referendum he loses his legacy. He'll go soon after the result and will be remembered for this rather than anything else.
If he wins he will have seen off Boris.

Casino_Royale

david_herdson said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd

Immediate thought: wow - big call.

Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.

We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.

Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.

David, out of curiosity, what's your view (and position) if the UK does vote Leave? What do you think should happen next?

Good questions and ones I might answer in length in a lead article when I've more time.

Short answer: interesting times all round.

Cool. I will look forward to that.

Jobabob

david_herdson said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

But I still followed Mortimer's tip.

PS - This thread is why the AV thread isn't going up today. Blame Mortimer

How does AV work in a referendum? Is Monty Hall involved?

You have three votes. Two of them are for a goat. the host opens a door and the Lib Dems lose.

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.

Why?

For the same reason I was confident that Cameron and the Tories were comfortably going to win the most seats last year.

So did I. But there's a world of difference between the 289 seats I predicted and the majority they got.

Sounds like blind faith to me.

True Faith on this Blue Monday.

Anyway back to planning for Brexit.

Play nicely everyone.

Sticking with Remain? I think you are In a Lonely Place...

PlatoSaid

Philip Cowley on the myth of voter registration

For the next two days, I will mostly be tweeting this...

From The British General Election of 2015. https://t.co/elfVUU3Sru

logical_song

Casino_Royale said:

TheBlackPig said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sounds like blind faith to me.

If anyone has a crystal ball, do share.

No one knows what will happen. Not me, not you, nor anyone else.

Those that claim they do are either delusional or lying.

Or pollsters.

AnneJGP

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.

Now that is an achievement.

MaxPB

I mentioned this on the previous topic, I've noticed an uptick in Tory members willing to back Boris in a final two, even vs Cameron who was previously so far out in front that I doubt Boris would have challenged him. His last couple of weeks have definitely helped him shore up his support among members, and many feel that he now has come out too strongly in favour of Leave to go native if he became PM after Brexit.

PeterC

TonyE said:

Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.

But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.

As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.

And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.

Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "The End is Nigh"

PClipp

TCPoliticalBetting said:

To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.

For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating.
Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........

Something very similar happened, I think, Mr Betting, with the AV Referendum. Labour let us all down then too.

MarqueeMark

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.

Now that is an achievement.

Get your black flags, people. The Time of the Anarchists has come...if they can get their shit together...which, being anarchists, is a stretch....

logical_song

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.

Now that is an achievement.

Last week Labour and LibDems, next week the Tories and the UK.

Scott_P

MaxPB said:

many feel that he now has come out too strongly in favour of Leave to go native if he became PM after Brexit.

Ha!

As we have seen, Boris will go wherever he thinks it will benefit his career

david_herdson

Casino_Royale said:

TheBlackPig said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sounds like blind faith to me.

If anyone has a crystal ball, do share.

No one knows what will happen. Not me, not you, nor anyone else.

Those that claim they do are either delusional or lying.

Quite right. But with good judgement, appropriate caveats and a bit of luck, we can take a half-decent guess.

Perhaps the best option is to list the known-unknowns, because Brexit would open up many.

logical_song

MaxPB said:

I mentioned this on the previous topic, I've noticed an uptick in Tory members willing to back Boris in a final two, even vs Cameron who was previously so far out in front that I doubt Boris would have challenged him. His last couple of weeks have definitely helped him shore up his support among members, and many feel that he now has come out too strongly in favour of Leave to go native if he became PM after Brexit.

This is Boris we're talking about, right?

TCPoliticalBetting

PClipp said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.

For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating.
Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........

Something very similar happened, I think, Mr Betting, with the AV Referendum. Labour let us all down then too.

The organising head of the winning No2AV is also the organising head of Vote LEAVE.

weejonnie

AnneJGP said:

david_herdson said:

I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd

Immediate thought: wow - big call.

Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.

We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.

Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.

Is it known what Leave needs in England (and Wales?) to cope with Scotland, NI and Gibraltar going heavily Remain?

(edited to add, good afternoon, everyone.)

Good afternoon.

Population of England : 53 million
Population of Wales : 3 Million
Population of Scotland : 5.3 million.
Population of N. Ireland: 1.8M
European residents : 1.5M

Assuming Everyone other than England/ Wales votes 60 -40 in favour of remain, then England/ Wales have to vote 52 - 48 in favour of Leave.

MarqueeMark

david_herdson said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheBlackPig said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sounds like blind faith to me.

If anyone has a crystal ball, do share.

No one knows what will happen. Not me, not you, nor anyone else.

Those that claim they do are either delusional or lying.

Quite right. But with good judgement, appropriate caveats and a bit of luck, we can take a half-decent guess.

Perhaps the best option is to list the known-unknowns, because Brexit would open up many.

And your half-decent guess is...?

david_herdson

weejonnie said:

SouthamObserver said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.

For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating.
Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........

However, imagine a dynamic leader of the opposition. What an opportunity to get in front of the country and to operate at par level with the PM and various members of the cabinet. Think of this referendum happening in 1995, say. Would Tony Blair have sat it out, content to let John Major take on the bastards? No, of course not. He would have demanded parity of coverage and he would have sought to drive the agenda on the TV and in the newspapers. He would have seen, perfectly correctly, that this referendum would be a springboard to power. Corbyn lacks the conviction, the drive and the intelligence to do any of that. He has come out as being for Remain, so he owns Remain's defeat almost as much as Cameron and Osborne.

Blair was always a committed Europhile - Corbyn is known to be Eurosceptic: if he pushes his head too far over the parapet it will be blown off. It is very hard for Labour to persuade their supporters that they are in favour of the EU when too many of them have seen their wages squeezed and the EU has been cursed as the cause. How do you uncurse the EU - in 16 days?

BTW - is there any difficulty in getting hold of a representative sample of Labour voters. The clued-in Guardianistas are Labour, very pro Remain and have access to computers and the time to register on polling sites - does this automatically follow for the traditional Labour voter? Just wondering.

That works the other way too: Brexiters seem to be keener to join online panels, and to respond when asked (though the most anti-EU - the 75+ age group - tend to be under-represented).

MaxPB

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:

I mentioned this on the previous topic, I've noticed an uptick in Tory members willing to back Boris in a final two, even vs Cameron who was previously so far out in front that I doubt Boris would have challenged him. His last couple of weeks have definitely helped him shore up his support among members, and many feel that he now has come out too strongly in favour of Leave to go native if he became PM after Brexit.

This is Boris we're talking about, right?

The one and only.

Casino_Royale

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.

Now that is an achievement.

I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.

We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.

Concanvasser

Plato Maxpb- I can only agree and very strange it feels to. I am increasingly more in tune with left Leavers (and left UKIP like Paddy O'Flynn) than the Cameroon/Osbornite ascendency. The I could seriously see myself voting Labour if the candidate was a Leaver- which would have been unthinkable for me 6 months ago. The Tory party is now far more rancorously divided than the 90's.

MaxPB

Casino_Royale said:

AnneJGP said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.

So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.

Who takes over?

ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.

Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.

Now that is an achievement.

I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.

We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.

I think if it is Brexit then the party will be fine, a few may try and agitate to overturn the result but most MPs are going to fall in line. I've always said that if Dave came out in favour of Leave we would have seen 280 MPs, 80% of members and 70% of voters back Leave. The party is split by loyalty to the leadership, if the leadership changes to back Leave then it wont be split.

TCPoliticalBetting

PeterC said:

TonyE said:

Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.

But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.

As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.

And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.

Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "The End is Nigh"

Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "My End is Nigh"

LadyBucket

Scott_P said:

LadyBucket said:

Victoria Derbyshire chaired another EU Ref debate this morning, which turned into a shouting match, with each side telling each other off for being rude etc. It was badly handled and I'm not sure anyone learned anything new. It seems to me some people just want to be lead by the hand to the Polling Station and told where to put their cross.

Yvette says it was a success

Mrs Balls was booed.

Indigo

TCPoliticalBetting said:

PClipp said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.

For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating.
Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........

Something very similar happened, I think, Mr Betting, with the AV Referendum. Labour let us all down then too.

The organising head of the winning No2AV is also the organising head of Vote LEAVE.

We have been assured many times of his acumen and the brilliance of appointing him.

Tissue_Price

Extraordinary!
https://twitter.com/CloakedStalker/status/739796573169844224
https://twitter.com/Edwina_Currie/status/739798393405493248