If Leave wins, we can only guess what will happen.
But surely one thing is certain - a Labour Government could not, and would not, negotiate the UK's exit from the EU - given that 90% of Labour MPs want to stay in and not one single leading figure in the party wants to leave.
So, if Leave wins:
Either: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM, there is no GE, and the Con Government leads the UK out of the EU.
Or: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM and calls a GE. Con would stand on a policy of leaving the EU. Lab would have to stand on a policy of staying in the EU - but presumably with a renegotiation of some sorts and maybe then another referendum (because they couldn't be seen to ignore the result of this referendum - if they did they would be annihilated).
Of course the above would be a very awkward position for Labour - which is why Labour may not agree to a dissolution of Parliament - meaning no GE.
I imagine in the event of LEAVE winning Jezza would tell his party that the British people have spoken and the game is up?
He's certainly a very strong supporter of the mandate directly from the voters.
London is only 60-40 for Remain according to Opinium.
At the last GE just over 7m people voted in London, NI and Scotland - the clear Remain territories
23.5m voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
As I said yesterday, breaking down the numbers of leavers/remainers either a) regionally or b) by party allegiance or c) demographically/economically suggests Remain have a really difficult task in trying to build a broad based referendum winning coalition.
Just like the Tories in 2015, Leave have regions, allegiances and demographics on their side. Finally that large number of discontented voters (currently residing mostly with UKIP) might see their votes making an impact.
I suspect Remain Tories will find it much easier to carry on supporting the party if they lose as it really isnt such a big deal to them as it is to Leavers. As you said most of us are supporting remain reluctantly out of loyalty to a man who led the party to the first majority for 20 odd years.
Yes I agree with that, the main part of the reluctant remainers will get on board with Brexit as soon as the leadership does. There will be a few traitors though who will agitate and force an election given how slim the majority is.
To be fair that's likely whichever side wins. Just can't see where Remainers would go to. If the Lib Dems had more seats/popularity and a more orange book base then I could see that being appealing to some. No Tory is going to touch Labour with a bargepole barring a change of leadership and an almighty shift to the centre.
From where I'm sitting all the treachery emanates, and has always emanated, from the Duncan-Smith types. And will continue to do so if remain loses to the extent of trying to depose Cameron and forcing an election if required. The nonsense over the Queens Speech is an example of that in action.
There have been numerous forecasts that in the coming decades the UK will overtake Germany in economy and population (as will France). Given that, surely there's an argument to be made (an actual positive argument for EU membership!), that if we were to engage fully with Europe we could end up in a much more leading role than we have now. Don't forget it's only recently that Germany has become the undisputed leader of the EU - before then France was much more in the driving seat.
We stay in, engage fully, as our economy and population grow we become more important, and we work harder to shape the EU in a more open, less protectionist direction.
The remainder of the EU do not figure in our top 50 global trading partners for exports and imports.
It's worth remembering that the EU trade surplus with the UK has a strong cyclical element. Going back even five years and the picture was very different.
Since the Eurozone crisis, most EU countries import numbers have flatlined as consumption has been suppressed. That is beginning to change, so I'd expect strong import growth out of the Eurozone over the next five years. Essentially, as a bloc it should move from a 3% current account surplus to a 3% deficit.
We havent had a trade surplus with the EU since the Euro was adopted.
I imagine in the event of LEAVE winning Jezza would tell his party that the British people have spoken and the game is up?
"The people have rejected being part of a neoliberal trading racket. It falls to us to deliver the alternative: a future based on the principle of 'from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs'. We've heard the people's voice loud and clear and we will not let them down."
There have been numerous forecasts that in the coming decades the UK will overtake Germany in economy and population (as will France). Given that, surely there's an argument to be made (an actual positive argument for EU membership!), that if we were to engage fully with Europe we could end up in a much more leading role than we have now. Don't forget it's only recently that Germany has become the undisputed leader of the EU - before then France was much more in the driving seat.
We stay in, engage fully, as our economy and population grow we become more important, and we work harder to shape the EU in a more open, less protectionist direction.
An optimistic view, which is refreshing, but the EU is so unpopular at present the best most in Remain think they can get away with is claiming they are mitigating damage by remaining. Seeming enthusiastic about the potential to shape it for the better begets the question why we've done such a bad job of shaping up to now, and whether it is likely that would improve.
Given it is unlikely everyone will turn into hardcore european enthusiasts even if Remain win by 10 points, it seems more probable we will continue our current reluctant path, increasing bitterness all around.
There have been numerous forecasts that in the coming decades the UK will overtake Germany in economy and population (as will France). Given that, surely there's an argument to be made (an actual positive argument for EU membership!), that if we were to engage fully with Europe we could end up in a much more leading role than we have now. Don't forget it's only recently that Germany has become the undisputed leader of the EU - before then France was much more in the driving seat.
We stay in, engage fully, as our economy and population grow we become more important, and we work harder to shape the EU in a more open, less protectionist direction.
It's a view. As we grow, though, so does the EU's membership. We have to grow just to standstill at the levels that are currently giving us a wholly inadequate voice.
There have been numerous forecasts that in the coming decades the UK will overtake Germany in economy and population (as will France). Given that, surely there's an argument to be made (an actual positive argument for EU membership!), that if we were to engage fully with Europe we could end up in a much more leading role than we have now. Don't forget it's only recently that Germany has become the undisputed leader of the EU - before then France was much more in the driving seat.
We stay in, engage fully, as our economy and population grow we become more important, and we work harder to shape the EU in a more open, less protectionist direction.
That'd only work if we joined the euro and signed up to the More Europe agenda.
There have been numerous forecasts that in the coming decades the UK will overtake Germany in economy and population (as will France). Given that, surely there's an argument to be made (an actual positive argument for EU membership!), that if we were to engage fully with Europe we could end up in a much more leading role than we have now. Don't forget it's only recently that Germany has become the undisputed leader of the EU - before then France was much more in the driving seat.
We stay in, engage fully, as our economy and population grow we become more important, and we work harder to shape the EU in a more open, less protectionist direction.
If there was a decent change of this happening I reckon most of the leavers on this site would vote remain.
But it won't. History tells us that. And so its time to leave.
I have decided that as I have voted remain I do not want to be in constant controversy with my fellow posters and am just prepared to wait until the 24th June and accept the result either way. I am really unhappy with some politicians suggesting that they will decide the make up of the UK, irrespective of the democratic will of the people. It is a beautiful day, Llandudno is looking fabulous with the Ormes, Pier and beaches, Snowdonia is within 20 minutes or so, and it speaks to a whole world outside the Westminster bubble. I am so lucky to live in this delightful part of Wales. I am taking my family to Tuscany in a few weeks (no matter what happens to the Euro) and will have over 14 days of utter joy with my 4 fab grandchildren. In the end the World will still be turning on the 24th June though many relationships will need some or a lot of TLC. I will still log in but intend contributing less for now. I wish all on this wonderful forum all the best no matter who you are or what you hope for. I would also suggest that any of you who have not been to Llandudno put it on your 'bucket list', it will not let you down.
There have been numerous forecasts that in the coming decades the UK will overtake Germany in economy and population (as will France). Given that, surely there's an argument to be made (an actual positive argument for EU membership!), that if we were to engage fully with Europe we could end up in a much more leading role than we have now. Don't forget it's only recently that Germany has become the undisputed leader of the EU - before then France was much more in the driving seat.
We stay in, engage fully, as our economy and population grow we become more important, and we work harder to shape the EU in a more open, less protectionist direction.
The UK is 2/3rds the area of Germany - so the population density of the UK will be 50% greater - Caves of Steel Time. The area of England (80% of the population) is only just over a third of that of Germany - so the population density of England will be more than twice that of Germany - with the South of England being much greater.
''Just like the Tories in 2015, Leave have regions, allegiances and demographics on their side. Finally that large number of discontented voters (currently residing mostly with UKIP) might see their votes making an impact.''
EU nationals were able to vote in the GE, right? Those have to be stripped out of that electorate - not sure if that makes a difference.
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
She didh".
I don't think that's a fair summation of her interests. The SNP would clearly not like to have to face the choice between UK and EU. Their ideal 'full independence' scenario is predicated on England and Wales being in the EU too.
True. She's still in an odd place though all said!
Incidentally, how do the Brexit camp propose to deal with the unresolved British constitutional issues if they win? Ironically I would humbly suggest that we'd need to rush towards federalism to keep the country together.
Doubt they've given it a moment's thought! Though you make a good point. Lots and lots will be up in the air if it's a Leave vote.
Another point is how does Europe react longer term. Do they just continue sticking their fingers in their ears going "la la la ever closer union", or do they reflect a few months down the line "Christ we really did just lose the Brits. What the hell are we doing wrong?".
Nope. If they were going to think that then EU leaders would show less contempt for the idea of reforming in different ways - and I mean genuinely show less contempt, not make the occasional speech acknowledging concerns but carrying on regardless and whinging about populism - and would have made more of an effort to change already. No, the answer for them is still ever closer integration is good, we are silly for causing 'contagion' of exiting to spread, and if we go they will be pleased we are no longer a block to ambition, even if some are annoyed by the loss of funds and counter balance to some other states. If it then all goes tits up, we will be blamed for undermining the project by giving fuel to the malcontents in their own ranks.
The remainder of the EU do not figure in our top 50 global trading partners for exports and imports.
It's worth remembering that the EU trade surplus with the UK has a strong cyclical element. Going back even five years and the picture was very different.
Since the Eurozone crisis, most EU countries import numbers have flatlined as consumption has been suppressed. That is beginning to change, so I'd expect strong import growth out of the Eurozone over the next five years. Essentially, as a bloc it should move from a 3% current account surplus to a 3% deficit.
We havent had a trade surplus with the EU since the Euro was adopted.
When was the last time we had a trade surplus with Germany?
There have been numerous forecasts that in the coming decades the UK will overtake Germany in economy and population (as will France). Given that, surely there's an argument to be made (an actual positive argument for EU membership!), that if we were to engage fully with Europe we could end up in a much more leading role than we have now. Don't forget it's only recently that Germany has become the undisputed leader of the EU - before then France was much more in the driving seat.
We stay in, engage fully, as our economy and population grow we become more important, and we work harder to shape the EU in a more open, less protectionist direction.
There have been numerous forecasts that in the coming decades the UK will overtake Germany in economy and population (as will France). Given that, surely there's an argument to be made (an actual positive argument for EU membership!), that if we were to engage fully with Europe we could end up in a much more leading role than we have now. Don't forget it's only recently that Germany has become the undisputed leader of the EU - before then France was much more in the driving seat.
We stay in, engage fully, as our economy and population grow we become more important, and we work harder to shape the EU in a more open, less protectionist direction.
You have to treat the eurozone as one country really.
I suspect Remain Tories will find it much easier to carry on supporting the party if they lose as it really isnt such a big deal to them as it is to Leavers. As you said most of us are supporting remain reluctantly out of loyalty to a man who led the party to the first majority for 20 odd years.
Yes I agree with that, the main part of the reluctant remainers will get on board with Brexit as soon as the leadership does. There will be a few traitors though who will agitate and force an election given how slim the majority is.
To be fair that's likely whichever side wins. Just can't see where Remainers would go to. If the Lib Dems had more seats/popularity and a more orange book base then I could see that being appealing to some. No Tory is going to touch Labour with a bargepole barring a change of leadership and an almighty shift to the centre.
From where I'm sitting all the treachery emanates, and has always emanated, from the Duncan-Smith types. And will continue to do so if remain loses to the extent of trying to depose Cameron and forcing an election if required. The nonsense over the Queens Speech is an example of that in action.
My thoughts exactly. The man is a blight on society, failed leader, abysmal minister, treacherous git, intellectual pygmy etc etc.
Is it me or are the areas "remain" are strong in sort of resemble the fabled areas that were going to get Ed Miliband to power with the help of the SNP and the Shinners..
Catholic NI + Scotland + London + "Urban North/Wales"
I suspect Nuneaton is going to head for Brexit, and as such we're heading out
I have decided that as I have voted remain I do not want to be in constant controversy with my fellow posters and am just prepared to wait until the 24th June and accept the result either way. I am really unhappy with some politicians suggesting that they will decide the make up of the UK, irrespective of the democratic will of the people. It is a beautiful day, Llandudno is looking fabulous with the Ormes, Pier and beaches, Snowdonia is within 20 minutes or so, and it speaks to a whole world outside the Westminster bubble. I am so lucky to live in this delightful part of Wales. I am taking my family to Tuscany in a few weeks (no matter what happens to the Euro) and will have over 14 days of utter joy with my 4 fab grandchildren. In the end the World will still be turning on the 24th June though many relationships will need some or a lot of TLC. I will still log in but intend contributing less for now. I wish all on this wonderful forum all the best no matter who you are or what you hope for. I would also suggest that any of you who have not been to Llandudno put it on your 'bucket list', it will not let you down.
NP - it is just that the population of England massively outweighs the population elsewhere. Of equal concern to Leave is the fact that Greater London (8.5 Million) is so pro-remain. If we factor that in at the same rate then the rest of England would have to vote 54-46.
The sole reason why the progressive lobby in England is so desperate to hang onto freedom of movement and mass immigration.
Where would the progressive cause in England be without London's portalectorate?
The remainder of the EU do not figure in our top 50 global trading partners for exports and imports.
It's worth remembering that the EU trade surplus with the UK has a strong cyclical element. Going back even five years and the picture was very different.
Since the Eurozone crisis, most EU countries import numbers have flatlined as consumption has been suppressed. That is beginning to change, so I'd expect strong import growth out of the Eurozone over the next five years. Essentially, as a bloc it should move from a 3% current account surplus to a 3% deficit.
We havent had a trade surplus with the EU since the Euro was adopted.
When was the last time we had a trade surplus with Germany?
"The Impact of Possible Migration Scenarios after 'Brexit' on the State Pension System report found it could lose over £3bn annually in lost taxes and benefits by 2032, rising to £8bn per year by 2057.
The research, commissioned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), focused primarily on two main scenarios out of a total six that each differ by number of flow of migrants.
The population projections by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published in 2014 represents the base figures highlighted in the table below. These statistics show how there could be an £8.1bn net budget loss including contributed pensions and in-work benefits following a Brexit by 2057.
The ONS figures show the UK population would increase from 64.6 million to 72.7 million by 2034-39 if the UK votes to remain in the EU. In addition, net migration would decrease from 1.2 million to 0.9 million people by 2034-39.
The second main scenario in the NIESR report refers to a substantial decline in EU migration that could happen if the UK were to leave Europe and adopt a restrictive policy. In this circumstance, called scenario 1A, EU migration would decline to one third of the migration figures projected by the ONS in 2014, while non-EU migration would remain unchanged.
The report focused on the different effects on loss in government revenue between the ONS figures and the £12bn projected revenue loss if EU migration fell by 100,000 from 2017."
Mr. Eagles, good way to destroy the Conservative Party would be if a Leave win were ignored.
It would be Country before Party.
Same reason I'm backing Remain. Country before Party.
So you support ignoring a Leave vote?
The EEA option after a Leave win would constitute ignoring the vote? Is there a list of other international treaties we should withdraw from to respect the clamour for isolation? NATO? The UN? The WTO?
Mr. Eagles, good way to destroy the Conservative Party would be if a Leave win were ignored.
It would be Country before Party.
Same reason I'm backing Remain. Country before Party.
You troll us surely.
I do hope that the decent TSE I remember has not been so debased by this campaign that you would support our MPs deliberately ignoring the democratically expressed will of the British people.
Besides it wouldn't be good for the country, OR the party. It would cause such a grievous and horrific bust-up, it could blow British politics apart; and it would be hideously self harming: our one great USP is that we have a stable democracy that follows the rules.
Now suddenly a parliament calls a referendum, says it is a once in a lifetime decision, but then ignores the vote because it doesn't like the decision taken?
Both main parties would shatter. UKIP would probably win a majority. Insane. The europhiles have gone fucking crazy.
If you read the previous thread header I wrote
I’m a Remainer, but if the electorate, in their infinite wisdom, choose to Leave the EU, our elected representatives should respect that, failure to do so will widen the disconnect many of the electorate feel they have with their elected representatives.
Is it me or are the areas "remain" are strong in sort of resemble the fabled areas that were going to get Ed Miliband to power with the help of the SNP and the Shinners..
Catholic NI + Scotland + London + "Urban North/Wales"
I suspect Nuneaton is going to head for Brexit, and as such we're heading out
I wouldnt be surprised if NI votes leave too based on catholic Irish people I have talked to. This is rebellion of the people agsinst an increasingly remote and arrogant British government. Something that aligns quite well with Irish mythology.
To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.
For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating. Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........
Something very similar happened, I think, Mr Betting, with the AV Referendum. Labour let us all down then too.
Most Labour MPs were pro-FPTP. I don't have the figures for how the Scottish Labour MPs split.
It was in their general election manifesto, Mr Herdson, written by none other than Mr Milliband. Who then sabotaged the referendum.
If Sturgeon can do this for Remain, why can't Corbyn?
The list of things that Nicola can do and Corbyn can't is a long one...
Quite right.
Cornyn's abject performance in this campaign so far should be enough for any sane Labourite to realise how unsuited he is to being leader of a modern, centre-left, europhile party, regardless of the result of the referendum.
How the party ended up with a old-fashioned, hard-left, eurosceptic as leader is one of the sickest national jokes in politics.
Is it me or are the areas "remain" are strong in sort of resemble the fabled areas that were going to get Ed Miliband to power with the help of the SNP and the Shinners..
Catholic NI + Scotland + London + "Urban North/Wales"
I suspect Nuneaton is going to head for Brexit, and as such we're heading out
I think Brexit is just about the only thing that could clean up the political culture of this country.
The whole attitude of established politics stinks, from top to bottom.
Mr. Eagles, good way to destroy the Conservative Party would be if a Leave win were ignored.
It would be Country before Party.
Same reason I'm backing Remain. Country before Party.
So you support ignoring a Leave vote?
Remain is the patriotic option.
If Leave win then we should respect that vote, and vice versa. Not going to do the Tory party any good to ignore it and that in turn isn't going to help the country as it will lead to a lunatic government from one side or the other. But mainly because its fair.
The remainder of the EU do not figure in our top 50 global trading partners for exports and imports.
It's worth remembering that the EU trade surplus with the UK has a strong cyclical element. Going back even five years and the picture was very different.
Since the Eurozone crisis, most EU countries import numbers have flatlined as consumption has been suppressed. That is beginning to change, so I'd expect strong import growth out of the Eurozone over the next five years. Essentially, as a bloc it should move from a 3% current account surplus to a 3% deficit.
If I remember rightly with the exception of one year in the mid 80s the lsst year the UK gad a trade surplus with the countries of the EU/EEC was the year before we joined when it stood at £385 million. As soon as we joined we went into deficit and, with the exception of that one year, have stayed there ever since.
If Sturgeon can do this for Remain, why can't Corbyn?
The list of things that Nicola can do and Corbyn can't is a long one...
Quite right.
Cornyn's abject performance in this campaign so far should be enough for any sane Labourite to realise how unsuited he is to being leader of a modern, centre-left, europhile party, regardless of the result of the referendum.
How the party ended up with a old-fashioned, hard-left, eurosceptic as leader is one of the sickest national jokes in politics.
Because the party isnt crntre left and Europhile, just.the majority of the elite that run it. And hasnt this referendum demonstrated this.
Leave will be what Corbyn needs to execute a massive purge and whoesale deselections
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
Her popularity is based on opinion polls with a 100% sample of Scots. I have yet to see her put forward an argument that appeals to the rest of the UK population.
That said, if the UK does vote Leave, the wording of any future referendum question on Scottish secession justified on the pretext of Scotland joining the EU and Eurozone could justfiably be something along the lines of "Should Scots cease to live in an independent country?"
Mr. Eagles, must disagree. The advantage for the country is to govern itself through accountable democratic institutions.
Mr. Jobabob, I imagine France would be worse off without Paris, or Mexico without Mexico City.
The disdain we see for London and Londoners on here daily suggests London would be better of leaving the UK in the event of a Leave vote. We are clearly not appreciated. Better off out!
Is it me or are the areas "remain" are strong in sort of resemble the fabled areas that were going to get Ed Miliband to power with the help of the SNP and the Shinners..
Catholic NI + Scotland + London + "Urban North/Wales"
I suspect Nuneaton is going to head for Brexit, and as such we're heading out
I think Brexit is just about the only thing that could clean up the political culture of this country.
The whole attitude of established politics stinks, from top to bottom.
Choosing the moment when one of our main parties of government is led by Marxists might not be the best time to tear down the old order.
Mr. Eagles, good way to destroy the Conservative Party would be if a Leave win were ignored.
It would be Country before Party.
Same reason I'm backing Remain. Country before Party.
You troll us surely.
I do hope that the decent TSE I remember has not been so debased by this campaign that you would support our MPs deliberately ignoring the democratically expressed will of the British people.
Besides it wouldn't be good for the country, OR the party. It would cause such a grievous and horrific bust-up, it could blow British politics apart; and it would be hideously self harming: our one great USP is that we have a stable democracy that follows the rules.
Now suddenly a parliament calls a referendum, says it is a once in a lifetime decision, but then ignores the vote because it doesn't like the decision taken?
Both main parties would shatter. UKIP would probably win a majority. Insane. The europhiles have gone fucking crazy.
If you read the previous thread header I wrote
I’m a Remainer, but if the electorate, in their infinite wisdom, choose to Leave the EU, our elected representatives should respect that, failure to do so will widen the disconnect many of the electorate feel they have with their elected representatives.
Is it me or are the areas "remain" are strong in sort of resemble the fabled areas that were going to get Ed Miliband to power with the help of the SNP and the Shinners..
Catholic NI + Scotland + London + "Urban North/Wales"
I suspect Nuneaton is going to head for Brexit, and as such we're heading out
I wouldnt be surprised if NI votes leave too based on catholic Irish people I have talked to. This is rebellion of the people agsinst an increasingly remote and arrogant British government. Something that aligns quite well with Irish mythology.
The Shinner areas of Ireland will go for "Remain", outside of Gibraltar the most "Remain" area of the entire UK. If Mid Ulster ends up voting for "Leave", then every area of the UK will be leaving.
Is it me or are the areas "remain" are strong in sort of resemble the fabled areas that were going to get Ed Miliband to power with the help of the SNP and the Shinners..
Catholic NI + Scotland + London + "Urban North/Wales"
I suspect Nuneaton is going to head for Brexit, and as such we're heading out
I think Brexit is just about the only thing that could clean up the political culture of this country.
The whole attitude of established politics stinks, from top to bottom.
Choosing the moment when one of our main parties of government is led by Marxists might not be the best time to tear down the old order.
Chill out. I'm not advocating burning down Westminster.
I'm advocating making it crystal clear that politicians work for us, and giving them no room to hide in future.
Could all those Leavers who were calling for the deposition of David Cameron in the event of a Remain vote and his replacement with a reliable Leaver care to reconcile their views with their outrage at the idea that Remainers might not take a Leave vote lying down?
Politicians recently appear to have been hiring speaking advisors from Blackadder, this attempt to look like a colossus bestriding the world actually looks more like they have wet themselves, most undignified.
Mr. Eagles, good way to destroy the Conservative Party would be if a Leave win were ignored.
It would be Country before Party.
Same reason I'm backing Remain. Country before Party.
So you support ignoring a Leave vote?
Remain is the patriotic option.
That wasn't what I asked.
In the event of a Leave vote, do you support ignoring it?
(PS. No, it isn't.)
I made my views known in the previous thread header.
Agreed. TSE has been quite balanced in threads since taking over the leaders of power. The ability to look at it from the other sides view even if you disagree is vital on a site like this.
Mind you if remain carry on like this I reckon TSE might throw in the towel and join leave by next week :-)
Could all those Leavers who were calling for the deposition of David Cameron in the event of a Remain vote and his replacement with a reliable Leaver care to reconcile their views with their outrage at the idea that Remainers might not take a Leave vote lying down?
Mr. Eagles, good way to destroy the Conservative Party would be if a Leave win were ignored.
It would be Country before Party.
Same reason I'm backing Remain. Country before Party.
So you support ignoring a Leave vote?
Remain is the patriotic option.
I am sure you believe that. It is another reason for me to hope that Leave win. Because if Remain win then you are not going to be able to live with yourself when you realise how deluded you have been and what you have done to your country.
Could all those Leavers who were calling for the deposition of David Cameron in the event of a Remain vote and his replacement with a reliable Leaver care to reconcile their views with their outrage at the idea that Remainers might not take a Leave vote lying down?
I think we need to accept the will of the British people whatever the result, @AlastairMeeks !
Is it me or are the areas "remain" are strong in sort of resemble the fabled areas that were going to get Ed Miliband to power with the help of the SNP and the Shinners..
Catholic NI + Scotland + London + "Urban North/Wales"
I suspect Nuneaton is going to head for Brexit, and as such we're heading out
I wouldnt be surprised if NI votes leave too based on catholic Irish people I have talked to. This is rebellion of the people agsinst an increasingly remote and arrogant British government. Something that aligns quite well with Irish mythology.
The Shinner areas of Ireland will go for "Remain", outside of Gibraltar the most "Remain" area of the entire UK. If Mid Ulster ends up voting for "Leave", then every area of the UK will be leaving.
Well that's just the problem isn't it?
Areas can't vote whether they themselves want to stay in or not. If NI votes IN but the UK as a whole votes OUT, then NI is OUT.
If London votes IN, which it will do, but the UK as a whole votes OUT then London gets dragged out of the EU against its will, when it is the EU's biggest and most important city.
Could all those Leavers who were calling for the deposition of David Cameron in the event of a Remain vote and his replacement with a reliable Leaver care to reconcile their views with their outrage at the idea that Remainers might not take a Leave vote lying down?
Apples and oranges.
I see. Leavers are allowed to sabotage the result if it goes against them because their cause is just, while Remainers must accept the result without question because their cause is wicked.
Mr. Eagles, good way to destroy the Conservative Party would be if a Leave win were ignored.
It would be Country before Party.
Same reason I'm backing Remain. Country before Party.
You troll us surely.
I do hope that the decent TSE I remember has not been so debased by this campaign that you would support our MPs deliberately ignoring the democratically expressed will of the British people.
Besides it wouldn't be good for the country, OR the party. It would cause such a grievous and horrific bust-up, it could blow British politics apart; and it would be hideously self harming: our one great USP is that we have a stable democracy that follows the rules.
Now suddenly a parliament calls a referendum, says it is a once in a lifetime decision, but then ignores the vote because it doesn't like the decision taken?
Both main parties would shatter. UKIP would probably win a majority. Insane. The europhiles have gone fucking crazy.
If you read the previous thread header I wrote
I’m a Remainer, but if the electorate, in their infinite wisdom, choose to Leave the EU, our elected representatives should respect that, failure to do so will widen the disconnect many of the electorate feel they have with their elected representatives.
Ah, fair enough.
I trust you to stick by those words.
Will you respect the will of the people if Remains win and stop campaigning for Brexit? I hope you'll come down like a ton of bricks on anyone trying to topple after a Remain victory ?
Could all those Leavers who were calling for the deposition of David Cameron in the event of a Remain vote and his replacement with a reliable Leaver care to reconcile their views with their outrage at the idea that Remainers might not take a Leave vote lying down?
Nobody has ever said a REMAIN vote should be ignored. Just that whatever happens Cameron will have to carry the can for this fiasco he's created - The Tory Party can't heal with him and Osborne leading them but that doesn't mean the referendum result will be ignored/revered/ etc...
The remainder of the EU do not figure in our top 50 global trading partners for exports and imports.
It's worth remembering that the EU trade surplus with the UK has a strong cyclical element. Going back even five years and the picture was very different.
Since the Eurozone crisis, most EU countries import numbers have flatlined as consumption has been suppressed. That is beginning to change, so I'd expect strong import growth out of the Eurozone over the next five years. Essentially, as a bloc it should move from a 3% current account surplus to a 3% deficit.
If I remember rightly with the exception of one year in the mid 80s the lsst year the UK gad a trade surplus with the countries of the EU/EEC was the year before we joined when it stood at £385 million. As soon as we joined we went into deficit and, with the exception of that one year, have stayed there ever since.
Yes, but the deficit was the same between the UK and EU, and the UK and RoW back in 2008, and that was pretty consistent for about two decades.
Could all those Leavers who were calling for the deposition of David Cameron in the event of a Remain vote and his replacement with a reliable Leaver care to reconcile their views with their outrage at the idea that Remainers might not take a Leave vote lying down?
Nobody has ever said a REMAIN vote should be ignored. Just that whatever happens Cameron will have to carry the can for this fiasco he's created - The Tory Party can't heal with him and Osborne leading them but that doesn't mean the referendum result will be ignored/revered/ etc...
Then why is it imperative that they be replaced with Leavers?
Mr. Eagles, must disagree. The advantage for the country is to govern itself through accountable democratic institutions.
Mr. Jobabob, I imagine France would be worse off without Paris, or Mexico without Mexico City.
The disdain we see for London and Londoners on here daily suggests London would be better of leaving the UK in the event of a Leave vote. We are clearly not appreciated. Better off out!
Don't let the door bang you on the arse on the way out!
Mr. Eagles, good way to destroy the Conservative Party would be if a Leave win were ignored.
It would be Country before Party.
Same reason I'm backing Remain. Country before Party.
So you support ignoring a Leave vote?
Remain is the patriotic option.
That wasn't what I asked.
In the event of a Leave vote, do you support ignoring it?
(PS. No, it isn't.)
I made my views known in the previous thread header.
Agreed. TSE has been quite balanced in threads since taking over the leaders of power. The ability to look at it from the other sides view even if you disagree is vital on a site like this.
Mind you if remain carry on like this I reckon TSE might throw in the towel and join leave by next week :-)
God no. Whilst Leave are engaging in that foghorn of a dog whistle on Turkey.
Such vile campaigns must not only be defeated, they must be crushed.
Is it me or are the areas "remain" are strong in sort of resemble the fabled areas that were going to get Ed Miliband to power with the help of the SNP and the Shinners..
Catholic NI + Scotland + London + "Urban North/Wales"
I suspect Nuneaton is going to head for Brexit, and as such we're heading out
I wouldnt be surprised if NI votes leave too based on catholic Irish people I have talked to. This is rebellion of the people agsinst an increasingly remote and arrogant British government. Something that aligns quite well with Irish mythology.
The Shinner areas of Ireland will go for "Remain", outside of Gibraltar the most "Remain" area of the entire UK. If Mid Ulster ends up voting for "Leave", then every area of the UK will be leaving.
Well that's just the problem isn't it?
Areas can't vote whether they themselves want to stay in or not. If NI votes IN but the UK as a whole votes OUT, then NI is OUT.
If London votes IN, which it will do, but the UK as a whole votes OUT then London gets dragged out of the EU against its will, when it is the EU's biggest and most important city.
The whole prospect is utterly ridiculous.
I hate to break it to you but London is the ancient historical capital of England, and the United Kingdom as a whole.
It is not its own city state; we are all one country and voting as one country.
Could all those Leavers who were calling for the deposition of David Cameron in the event of a Remain vote and his replacement with a reliable Leaver care to reconcile their views with their outrage at the idea that Remainers might not take a Leave vote lying down?
Yes.
Personnel decisions are different to respecting the decision of the people.
Mr. Eagles, must disagree. The advantage for the country is to govern itself through accountable democratic institutions.
Mr. Jobabob, I imagine France would be worse off without Paris, or Mexico without Mexico City.
The disdain we see for London and Londoners on here daily suggests London would be better of leaving the UK in the event of a Leave vote. We are clearly not appreciated. Better off out!
Might get a bit quiet of course without the 2m people that commute into London every day...
Is it me or are the areas "remain" are strong in sort of resemble the fabled areas that were going to get Ed Miliband to power with the help of the SNP and the Shinners..
Catholic NI + Scotland + London + "Urban North/Wales"
I suspect Nuneaton is going to head for Brexit, and as such we're heading out
I wouldnt be surprised if NI votes leave too based on catholic Irish people I have talked to. This is rebellion of the people agsinst an increasingly remote and arrogant British government. Something that aligns quite well with Irish mythology.
The Shinner areas of Ireland will go for "Remain", outside of Gibraltar the most "Remain" area of the entire UK. If Mid Ulster ends up voting for "Leave", then every area of the UK will be leaving.
Well that's just the problem isn't it?
Areas can't vote whether they themselves want to stay in or not. If NI votes IN but the UK as a whole votes OUT, then NI is OUT.
If London votes IN, which it will do, but the UK as a whole votes OUT then London gets dragged out of the EU against its will, when it is the EU's biggest and most important city.
The whole prospect is utterly ridiculous.
Not really, London voted for David Miliband in the GE, and Westmoreland voted for Tim Fallon, but neither is PM now.
Mr. Eagles, must disagree. The advantage for the country is to govern itself through accountable democratic institutions.
Mr. Jobabob, I imagine France would be worse off without Paris, or Mexico without Mexico City.
The disdain we see for London and Londoners on here daily suggests London would be better of leaving the UK in the event of a Leave vote. We are clearly not appreciated. Better off out!
Might get a bit quiet of course without the 2m people that commute into London every day...
Remainers don't have a problem with freedom of movement. I'm sure we'd allow the yokels to come and work among us if they still wanted to.
An independent London is an excellent idea. This might be just the ticket to kickstart the process.
Could all those Leavers who were calling for the deposition of David Cameron in the event of a Remain vote and his replacement with a reliable Leaver care to reconcile their views with their outrage at the idea that Remainers might not take a Leave vote lying down?
Nobody has ever said a REMAIN vote should be ignored. Just that whatever happens Cameron will have to carry the can for this fiasco he's created - The Tory Party can't heal with him and Osborne leading them but that doesn't mean the referendum result will be ignored/revered/ etc...
Then why is it imperative that they be replaced with Leavers?
To help bring the Tories back together?
Though I think they might go for someone like Theresa who is probably acceptable to all sides (at least for a time)
"Pro-European MPs and some government sources believe it may be possible.. to reverse the [referendum] decision"
SOME GOVERNMENT SOURCES
"One possibility for pro-Europeans would be to insert a clause demanding a second referendum on the terms of the renegotiation,"
"the hope that the UK can be persuaded to rethink [after Brexit]."
And my favourite:
"there is an acceptance that politicians would be required to try to act on the decision of the British people."
That's generous of them.
You will be feeling like Corbyn supporters in the Labour party , when the Labour MPs do not accept the result from the membership.
They put him on the ballot , just like Cameron offered the public a referendum even though he now states it would be an f ing disaster for the UK if they vote leave.
However the parallels are the same they will try to turn both votes over. I always said there might be a second referendum, if the public in their eyes get it wrong the first time.
The remainder of the EU do not figure in our top 50 global trading partners for exports and imports.
It's worth remembering that the EU trade surplus with the UK has a strong cyclical element. Going back even five years and the picture was very different.
Since the Eurozone crisis, most EU countries import numbers have flatlined as consumption has been suppressed. That is beginning to change, so I'd expect strong import growth out of the Eurozone over the next five years. Essentially, as a bloc it should move from a 3% current account surplus to a 3% deficit.
If I remember rightly with the exception of one year in the mid 80s the lsst year the UK gad a trade surplus with the countries of the EU/EEC was the year before we joined when it stood at £385 million. As soon as we joined we went into deficit and, with the exception of that one year, have stayed there ever since.
Yes, but the deficit was the same between the UK and EU, and the UK and RoW back in 2008, and that was pretty consistent for about two decades.
Clearly then it is the EU that is holding us back.
Could all those Leavers who were calling for the deposition of David Cameron in the event of a Remain vote and his replacement with a reliable Leaver care to reconcile their views with their outrage at the idea that Remainers might not take a Leave vote lying down?
Nobody has ever said a REMAIN vote should be ignored. Just that whatever happens Cameron will have to carry the can for this fiasco he's created - The Tory Party can't heal with him and Osborne leading them but that doesn't mean the referendum result will be ignored/revered/ etc...
Then why is it imperative that they be replaced with Leavers?
To help bring the Tories back together?
Though I think they might go for someone like Theresa who is probably acceptable to all sides (at least for a time)
A majority of Tory MPs are for remains and the polls have shown current Tory voters are for Remain
Mr. Eagles, must disagree. The advantage for the country is to govern itself through accountable democratic institutions.
Mr. Jobabob, I imagine France would be worse off without Paris, or Mexico without Mexico City.
The disdain we see for London and Londoners on here daily suggests London would be better of leaving the UK in the event of a Leave vote. We are clearly not appreciated. Better off out!
Might get a bit quiet of course without the 2m people that commute into London every day...
Remainers don't have a problem with freedom of movement. I'm sure we'd allow the yokels to come and work among us if they still wanted to.
An independent London is an excellent idea. This might be just the ticket to kickstart the process.
I'd be sad to see London go, are you going to start the "Lexit" party Mr Meeks ?
Comments
At the last GE just over 7m people voted in London, NI and Scotland - the clear Remain territories.
23.5m voted in the remainder of England and Wales.
This about the "reverse Maastricht" option , not Monty Hall...
Just like the Tories in 2015, Leave have regions, allegiances and demographics on their side. Finally that large number of discontented voters (currently residing mostly with UKIP) might see their votes making an impact.
We stay in, engage fully, as our economy and population grow we become more important, and we work harder to shape the EU in a more open, less protectionist direction.
Given it is unlikely everyone will turn into hardcore european enthusiasts even if Remain win by 10 points, it seems more probable we will continue our current reluctant path, increasing bitterness all around.
Nah, best to just Leave...
But it won't. History tells us that. And so its time to leave.
And that is good news?????
EU nationals were able to vote in the GE, right? Those have to be stripped out of that electorate - not sure if that makes a difference.
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/739828501319147520
Mr. NorthWales, hope you have a nice time on holiday, and come back soon.
All referendums are merely advisory as Parliament is Sovereign.
Sir Peter Shaffer, British playwright who wrote Equus and won an Oscar for Amadeus, dies aged 90
Catholic NI +
Scotland +
London +
"Urban North/Wales"
I suspect Nuneaton is going to head for Brexit, and as such we're heading out
Same reason I'm backing Remain. Country before Party.
F**ked. That's where.
http://www.professionalpensions.com/professional-pensions/analysis/2460574/how-migration-fall-after-brexit-could-reduce-state-pension
"The Impact of Possible Migration Scenarios after 'Brexit' on the State Pension System report found it could lose over £3bn annually in lost taxes and benefits by 2032, rising to £8bn per year by 2057.
The research, commissioned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), focused primarily on two main scenarios out of a total six that each differ by number of flow of migrants.
The population projections by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published in 2014 represents the base figures highlighted in the table below. These statistics show how there could be an £8.1bn net budget loss including contributed pensions and in-work benefits following a Brexit by 2057.
The ONS figures show the UK population would increase from 64.6 million to 72.7 million by 2034-39 if the UK votes to remain in the EU. In addition, net migration would decrease from 1.2 million to 0.9 million people by 2034-39.
The second main scenario in the NIESR report refers to a substantial decline in EU migration that could happen if the UK were to leave Europe and adopt a restrictive policy. In this circumstance, called scenario 1A, EU migration would decline to one third of the migration figures projected by the ONS in 2014, while non-EU migration would remain unchanged.
The report focused on the different effects on loss in government revenue between the ONS figures and the £12bn projected revenue loss if EU migration fell by 100,000 from 2017."
Remain are rattled, they are making mistakes under pressure and the mask is slipping.
This is the lead story at Dacre Towers now. Between this and Camerons Bomb I think this is the day remain blew it.
Mr. Jobabob, I imagine France would be worse off without Paris, or Mexico without Mexico City.
I’m a Remainer, but if the electorate, in their infinite wisdom, choose to Leave the EU, our elected representatives should respect that, failure to do so will widen the disconnect many of the electorate feel they have with their elected representatives.
Quite right.
Cornyn's abject performance in this campaign so far should be enough for any sane Labourite to realise how unsuited he is to being leader of a modern, centre-left, europhile party, regardless of the result of the referendum.
How the party ended up with a old-fashioned, hard-left, eurosceptic as leader is one of the sickest national jokes in politics.
The whole attitude of established politics stinks, from top to bottom.
But mainly because its fair.
In the event of a Leave vote, do you support ignoring it?
(PS. No, it isn't.)
Leave will be what Corbyn needs to execute a massive purge and whoesale deselections
That said, if the UK does vote Leave, the wording of any future referendum question on Scottish secession justified on the pretext of Scotland joining the EU and Eurozone could justfiably be something along the lines of "Should Scots cease to live in an independent country?"
This more than anything, show's how rattled REMAIN is... They can see 40 years worth of dreams being destroyed by the pesky voters.
Can you imagine how Cameron and Osborne will go down the next time the Bilderbergers get together?
Whisky and a revolver I'd have thought....
Have those unions supporting remain taken instruction from their membership?
I trust you to stick by those words.
I'm advocating making it crystal clear that politicians work for us, and giving them no room to hide in future.
Mind you if remain carry on like this I reckon TSE might throw in the towel and join leave by next week :-)
I certainly shall be.
Areas can't vote whether they themselves want to stay in or not. If NI votes IN but the UK as a whole votes OUT, then NI is OUT.
If London votes IN, which it will do, but the UK as a whole votes OUT then London gets dragged out of the EU against its will, when it is the EU's biggest and most important city.
The whole prospect is utterly ridiculous.
How silly of me not to notice.
Such vile campaigns must not only be defeated, they must be crushed.
If there was a remain vote, I would accept the decision and vote UKIP from then on.
I certainly wouldn;t expect leave MPs to start ar$ing around in the house of commons.
It is not its own city state; we are all one country and voting as one country.
Personnel decisions are different to respecting the decision of the people.
An independent London is an excellent idea. This might be just the ticket to kickstart the process.
Though I think they might go for someone like Theresa who is probably acceptable to all sides (at least for a time)
They put him on the ballot , just like Cameron offered the public a referendum even though he now states it would be an f ing disaster for the UK if they vote leave.
However the parallels are the same they will try to turn both votes over.
I always said there might be a second referendum, if the public in their eyes get it wrong the first time.