My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
I think if it is Brexit then the party will be fine, a few may try and agitate to overturn the result but most MPs are going to fall in line. I've always said that if Dave came out in favour of Leave we would have seen 280 MPs, 80% of members and 70% of voters back Leave. The party is split by loyalty to the leadership, if the leadership changes to back Leave then it wont be split.
I mentioned this on the previous topic, I've noticed an uptick in Tory members willing to back Boris in a final two, even vs Cameron who was previously so far out in front that I doubt Boris would have challenged him. His last couple of weeks have definitely helped him shore up his support among members, and many feel that he now has come out too strongly in favour of Leave to go native if he became PM after Brexit.
Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.
But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.
As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.
And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.
Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "The End is Nigh"
Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "My End is Nigh"
Osborne is like the guy with a sandwich board on Oxford Street which has an arrow indicating the direction of the GOLF SALE....
That is a masterclass in how to handle that sort of comment, what can they say to her reply that would add to the controversy, leaves them no where else to go
To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.
For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating. Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........
Something very similar happened, I think, Mr Betting, with the AV Referendum. Labour let us all down then too.
The organising head of the winning No2AV is also the organising head of Vote LEAVE.
We have been assured many times of his acumen and the brilliance of appointing him.
and it does look like Matthew Elliott is well ahead of Will Straw. This referendum (if won) will be 3 in a row victories for Matthew.
Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.
But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.
As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.
And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.
Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "The End is Nigh"
Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "My End is Nigh"
He needs to stop behaving like an "end" if he wants his party to be on speaking terms after the referendum that's for sure.
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments. I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).
To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.
For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating. Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........
Something very similar happened, I think, Mr Betting, with the AV Referendum. Labour let us all down then too.
Most Labour MPs were pro-FPTP. I don't have the figures for how the Scottish Labour MPs split.
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Victoria Derbyshire chaired another EU Ref debate this morning, which turned into a shouting match, with each side telling each other off for being rude etc. It was badly handled and I'm not sure anyone learned anything new. It seems to me some people just want to be lead by the hand to the Polling Station and told where to put their cross.
Yvette says it was a success
Mrs Balls was booed.
That is a success for her these days. At least she was noticed.
Plato Maxpb- I can only agree and very strange it feels to. I am increasingly more in tune with left Leavers (and left UKIP like Paddy O'Flynn) than the Cameroon/Osbornite ascendency. The I could seriously see myself voting Labour if the candidate was a Leaver- which would have been unthinkable for me 6 months ago. The Tory party is now far more rancorously divided than the 90's.
My own feelings reflect that from a different viewpoint. I've reluctantly voted Conservative at the last two GEs because, although I'd much prefer to vote Labour, the issue of sound finances has ruled them out for me.
But I've discovered that the EU is an issue which beats even sound finances - any government is only for 5 years max, EU membership (eventually) is going to be forever. We've no vote on the powerful in the EU.
If we don't get the opportunity to vote the EU blighters out regularly, then we need to Leave.
If that means voting in (for 5 years) a set of UK blighters I wouldn't ordinarily look at, then so be it, I'm afraid.
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments. I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments. I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).
I don't know, there were Tory members on here talking about the left of the Tory party and right of the Labour party joining together and forming a new political movement based on love of the EU. As I said in the previous topic, apparently nothing is sacred and everything can be sacrificed at the altar if the EU for some Tory remainers. Obviously I'm not saying you are one of them.
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour?
I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd
Immediate thought: wow - big call.
Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.
We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.
Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.
Is it known what Leave needs in England (and Wales?) to cope with Scotland, NI and Gibraltar going heavily Remain?
(edited to add, good afternoon, everyone.)
Good afternoon.
Population of England : 53 million Population of Wales : 3 Million Population of Scotland : 5.3 million. Population of N. Ireland: 1.8M European residents : 1.5M
Assuming Everyone other than England/ Wales votes 60 -40 in favour of remain, then England/ Wales have to vote 52 - 48 in favour of Leave.
To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.
For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating. Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........
Something very similar happened, I think, Mr Betting, with the AV Referendum. Labour let us all down then too.
The organising head of the winning No2AV is also the organising head of Vote LEAVE.
We have been assured many times of his acumen and the brilliance of appointing him.
and it does look like Matthew Elliott is well ahead of Will Straw. This referendum (if won) will be 3 in a row victories for Matthew.
I am not sure how Will Straw was offered the job even, I mean yes he has obvious connections, but other that than he appears to have been a third rate wonk and political bag carrier, and the public didn't like him enough to elect him in Rossendale and Darwen.
Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.
But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.
As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.
And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.
Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "The End is Nigh"
Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "My End is Nigh"
He needs to stop behaving like an "end" if he wants his party to be on speaking terms after the referendum that's for sure.
He has gone beyond the pale on this. He has said goodbye to his party.
That is a masterclass in how to handle that sort of comment, what can they say to her reply that would add to the controversy, leaves them no where else to go
I don't mind europhiles lying about screwing each other, but I do mind them lying so they can screw over the rest of us.
Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.
But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.
As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.
And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.
Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "The End is Nigh"
Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "My End is Nigh"
Osborne is like the guy with a sandwich board on Oxford Street which has an arrow indicating the direction of the GOLF SALE....
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments. I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).
@YvetteCooperMP: After debate on @VictoriaLIVE this am, more than twice as many of the undecided in the audience switch to Remain than to Leave. Good result
@MrHarryCole: BJ: "£ will go where it will over the short term. But, believe me, in long term you can look forward to fantastic success for this country"
Plato Maxpb- I can only agree and very strange it feels to. I am increasingly more in tune with left Leavers (and left UKIP like Paddy O'Flynn) than the Cameroon/Osbornite ascendency. The I could seriously see myself voting Labour if the candidate was a Leaver- which would have been unthinkable for me 6 months ago. The Tory party is now far more rancorously divided than the 90's.
I agree, this is very pertinent to the EU.
Benn "one can ask five questions: what power do you have; where did you get it; in whose interests do you exercise it; to whom are you accountable; and, how can we get rid of you?"
Plato Maxpb- I can only agree and very strange it feels to. I am increasingly more in tune with left Leavers (and left UKIP like Paddy O'Flynn) than the Cameroon/Osbornite ascendency. The I could seriously see myself voting Labour if the candidate was a Leaver- which would have been unthinkable for me 6 months ago. The Tory party is now far more rancorously divided than the 90's.
My own feelings reflect that from a different viewpoint. I've reluctantly voted Conservative at the last two GEs because, although I'd much prefer to vote Labour, the issue of sound finances has ruled them out for me.
But I've discovered that the EU is an issue which beats even sound finances - any government is only for 5 years max, EU membership (eventually) is going to be forever. We've no vote on the powerful in the EU.
If we don't get the opportunity to vote the EU blighters out regularly, then we need to Leave.
If that means voting in (for 5 years) a set of UK blighters I wouldn't ordinarily look at, then so be it, I'm afraid.
Reading that I'm struck by how the symbolism of democracy is as important as the substance in ensuring continued public consent.
The problem comes when you realise that even hiring and firing the UK blighters is not sufficient to exercise the kind of control that you would like to see.
Looking ahead at the economic week, we've got trade figures due on Thursday. Of I were the leave campaign I would time the economic policy/view to coincide with the release of the trade figures. We have them down as a £12bn deficit with the EU and a £2bn deficit with non-EU nations. This will be the last chance, IMO, to push the strength of our trade with the rest of the world and our EU trade weakness, and why the economic case for remaining is not worth the compromise that the remain side are putting across.
Plato Maxpb- I can only agree and very strange it feels to. I am increasingly more in tune with left Leavers (and left UKIP like Paddy O'Flynn) than the Cameroon/Osbornite ascendency. The I could seriously see myself voting Labour if the candidate was a Leaver- which would have been unthinkable for me 6 months ago. The Tory party is now far more rancorously divided than the 90's.
I agree, this is very pertinent to the EU.
Benn "one can ask five questions: what power do you have; where did you get it; in whose interests do you exercise it; to whom are you accountable; and, how can we get rid of you?"
Should be part of the campaign. Up in bold wherever Leave is advertising.
AnneGJP- that is v.interesting. I wonder if we are straws in the wind for a bigger change?. I would much rather have a freely elected socialist Government in the UK (nationalising the railways and doing whatever else they were elected to do) than a free market right of centre unelected EU government in perpetuity.
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments. I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).
I don't know, there were Tory members on here talking about the left of the Tory party and right of the Labour party joining together and forming a new political movement based on love of the EU. As I said in the previous topic, apparently nothing is sacred and everything can be sacrificed at the altar if the EU for some Tory remainers. Obviously I'm not saying you are one of them.
I suspect Remain Tories will find it much easier to carry on supporting the party if they lose as it really isnt such a big deal to them as it is to Leavers. As you said most of us are supporting remain reluctantly out of loyalty to a man who led the party to the first majority for 20 odd years.
Plato Maxpb- I can only agree and very strange it feels to. I am increasingly more in tune with left Leavers (and left UKIP like Paddy O'Flynn) than the Cameroon/Osbornite ascendency. The I could seriously see myself voting Labour if the candidate was a Leaver- which would have been unthinkable for me 6 months ago. The Tory party is now far more rancorously divided than the 90's.
I agree, this is very pertinent to the EU.
Benn "one can ask five questions: what power do you have; where did you get it; in whose interests do you exercise it; to whom are you accountable; and, how can we get rid of you?"
Should be part of the campaign. Up in bold wherever Leave is advertising.
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments. I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).
Steven Whately was considering it, for one.
Fair enough, but Corbyn? Really?
I don't understand it mate. You'll have to ask him.
AnneGJP- that is v.interesting. I wonder if we are straws in the wind for a bigger change?. I would much rather have a freely elected socialist Government in the UK (nationalising the railways and doing whatever else they were elected to do) than a free market right of centre unelected EU government in perpetuity.
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour?
Yes. David Cameron.
He seems to have gone straight past Labour and is now hobnobbing with the Greens to judge by today's hoopla.
@YvetteCooperMP: After debate on @VictoriaLIVE this am, more than twice as many of the undecided in the audience switch to Remain than to Leave. Good result
These will be BBC "undecideds " then? Yeah, right....
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour?
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
I suspect Remain Tories will find it much easier to carry on supporting the party if they lose as it really isnt such a big deal to them as it is to Leavers. As you said most of us are supporting remain reluctantly out of loyalty to a man who led the party to the first majority for 20 odd years.
Yes I agree with that, the main part of the reluctant remainers will get on board with Brexit as soon as the leadership does. There will be a few traitors though who will agitate and force an election given how slim the majority is.
To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.
For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating. Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........
Something very similar happened, I think, Mr Betting, with the AV Referendum. Labour let us all down then too.
The organising head of the winning No2AV is also the organising head of Vote LEAVE.
We have been assured many times of his acumen and the brilliance of appointing him.
and it does look like Matthew Elliott is well ahead of Will Straw. This referendum (if won) will be 3 in a row victories for Matthew.
I am not sure how Will Straw was offered the job even, I mean yes he has obvious connections, but other that than he appears to have been a third rate wonk and political bag carrier, and the public didn't like him enough to elect him in Rossendale and Darwen.
Yes. Such a track record of losing elections such as increasing the Conservative majority by 1,000 at the seat he stood in at GE2015. Another wonder in the REMAIN team is their strategy director Ryan, who was head of the Lib Dem campaign at GE2015. A remarkable record to base a campaign on.
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
Matthew Elliot Delighted to hear @wdjstraw admit on @BBCr4today "we'd be worse off if we stay in". He'll now be locked away in same cupboard as Lord Rose..
I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.
Why?
I still think we are on for a remain victory but by a smaller margin. Primarily because I'm still in disbelief that leave could actually win this thing as well. I expected remain to be pulling ahead comfortably by this stage - I totally underestimated the publics overall disdain toward the EU
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
I think if it is Brexit then the party will be fine, a few may try and agitate to overturn the result but most MPs are going to fall in line. I've always said that if Dave came out in favour of Leave we would have seen 280 MPs, 80% of members and 70% of voters back Leave. The party is split by loyalty to the leadership, if the leadership changes to back Leave then it wont be split.
I know this is parallel universe stuff, but just supposing Mr Cameron threw his hands up, said "Sorry people, I really got this all wrong and mis-read the feeling in the electorate" and changed sides at this late hour.
What would happen then? I'm inclined to think Leavers would welcome that with acclaim and the electorate would follow him.
Plato Maxpb- I can only agree and very strange it feels to. I am increasingly more in tune with left Leavers (and left UKIP like Paddy O'Flynn) than the Cameroon/Osbornite ascendency. The I could seriously see myself voting Labour if the candidate was a Leaver- which would have been unthinkable for me 6 months ago. The Tory party is now far more rancorously divided than the 90's.
I agree, this is very pertinent to the EU.
Benn "one can ask five questions: what power do you have; where did you get it; in whose interests do you exercise it; to whom are you accountable; and, how can we get rid of you?"
Should be part of the campaign. Up in bold wherever Leave is advertising.
Yes good idea. On every red leaflet and bill board in Labour areas.
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
It's an absolutely huge moment for Boris.
He has no choice but to play it straight, overimpress, and generally perform very, very well.
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
I think if it is Brexit then the party will be fine, a few may try and agitate to overturn the result but most MPs are going to fall in line. I've always said that if Dave came out in favour of Leave we would have seen 280 MPs, 80% of members and 70% of voters back Leave. The party is split by loyalty to the leadership, if the leadership changes to back Leave then it wont be split.
I know this is parallel universe stuff, but just supposing Mr Cameron threw his hands up, said "Sorry people, I really got this all wrong and mis-read the feeling in the electorate" and changed sides at this late hour.
What would happen then? I'm inclined to think Leavers would welcome that with acclaim and the electorate would follow him.
Turmoil, complete and utter turmoil and it wouldn't save his job.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.
Why?
I still think we are on for a remain victory but by a smaller margin. Primarily because I'm still in disbelief that leave could actually win this thing as well. I expected remain to be pulling ahead comfortably by this stage - I totally underestimated the publics overall disdain toward the EU
People remained incredulous at the collapse of Scottish Labour until close to the very end.
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
I think if it is Brexit then the party will be fine, a few may try and agitate to overturn the result but most MPs are going to fall in line. I've always said that if Dave came out in favour of Leave we would have seen 280 MPs, 80% of members and 70% of voters back Leave. The party is split by loyalty to the leadership, if the leadership changes to back Leave then it wont be split.
I know this is parallel universe stuff, but just supposing Mr Cameron threw his hands up, said "Sorry people, I really got this all wrong and mis-read the feeling in the electorate" and changed sides at this late hour.
What would happen then? I'm inclined to think Leavers would welcome that with acclaim and the electorate would follow him.
Ok, alternative universe and maybe even more likely: 'Thanks chaps for voting Leave and then making me PM, see the things is I've realised Johnny Foreigner isn't such a bad chap and I've changed my mind again. I'm going to renegotiate and stay.' Rt Hon B Johnson MP
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
Have there really been any Remain Tories drawn to Labour? More loyalty to Cameron and revulsion at SOME of the Leavers. For Leavers this is everything in a UKIPesque tunnel vision way. Thats not the case for Remainers, most of whom can see reasons to leave but are swayed by economic arguments. I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).
Steven Whately was considering it, for one.
Fair enough, but Corbyn? Really?
I don't understand it mate. You'll have to ask him.
I think there is a difference between sympathising with the views of some sections of the other party, and being prepared to vote for them. I would never vote Labour, but that doesn't mean I dont feel an affinity for the patriotism of a lot of traditional WWC Labour, and their desire to make something of themselves. If I wasn't a middle class businessman in Asia I would be driving a white van
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
She did and she's v good, no doubt, but she has to be careful of sounding like being yet another foreigner ( for that's what she aspires to be ) lining up with Obama, Merkel, Rutte, Lagarde, Carney, et al lecturing the English as to what they should do. Surely too she must have her fingers crossed behind her back because it's a weird old situation she finds herself in, advocating Remain whilst really probably wanting Leave? Sort of "oh Lord let me do well - but not too well eh".
I suspect Remain Tories will find it much easier to carry on supporting the party if they lose as it really isnt such a big deal to them as it is to Leavers. As you said most of us are supporting remain reluctantly out of loyalty to a man who led the party to the first majority for 20 odd years.
Yes I agree with that, the main part of the reluctant remainers will get on board with Brexit as soon as the leadership does. There will be a few traitors though who will agitate and force an election given how slim the majority is.
To be fair that's likely whichever side wins. Just can't see where Remainers would go to. If the Lib Dems had more seats/popularity and a more orange book base then I could see that being appealing to some. No Tory is going to touch Labour with a bargepole barring a change of leadership and an almighty shift to the centre.
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
I think if it is Brexit then the party will be fine, a few may try and agitate to overturn the result but most MPs are going to fall in line. I've always said that if Dave came out in favour of Leave we would have seen 280 MPs, 80% of members and 70% of voters back Leave. The party is split by loyalty to the leadership, if the leadership changes to back Leave then it wont be split.
I know this is parallel universe stuff, but just supposing Mr Cameron threw his hands up, said "Sorry people, I really got this all wrong and mis-read the feeling in the electorate" and changed sides at this late hour.
What would happen then? I'm inclined to think Leavers would welcome that with acclaim and the electorate would follow him.
Ok, alternative universe and maybe even more likely: 'Thanks chaps for voting Leave and then making me PM, see the things is I've realised Johnny Foreigner isn't such a bad chap and I've changed my mind again. I'm going to renegotiate and stay.' Rt Hon B Johnson MP
"Cripes, now that I've read the detail, this renegotiation of Dave's was actually jolly good. Let's stick with this option and with me as PM I'll keep those Brussels busybodies in check."
@YvetteCooperMP: After debate on @VictoriaLIVE this am, more than twice as many of the undecided in the audience switch to Remain than to Leave. Good result
These will be BBC "undecideds " then? Yeah, right....
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
So both the Conservatives and Labour will be finished.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Seems he's now made it hat-trick and finished off the Conservative party as well.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
I think if it is Brexit then the party will be fine, a few may try and agitate to overturn the result but most MPs are going to fall in line. I've always said that if Dave came out in favour of Leave we would have seen 280 MPs, 80% of members and 70% of voters back Leave. The party is split by loyalty to the leadership, if the leadership changes to back Leave then it wont be split.
I know this is parallel universe stuff, but just supposing Mr Cameron threw his hands up, said "Sorry people, I really got this all wrong and mis-read the feeling in the electorate" and changed sides at this late hour.
What would happen then? I'm inclined to think Leavers would welcome that with acclaim and the electorate would follow him.
Ok, alternative universe and maybe even more likely: 'Thanks chaps for voting Leave and then making me PM, see the things is I've realised Johnny Foreigner isn't such a bad chap and I've changed my mind again. I'm going to renegotiate and stay.' Rt Hon B Johnson MP
Scott P- The funny thing about the 70's is whilst they were clearly ruinous for the UK plc most ordinary people (accepting those on fixed incomes I totally accept) were probably better off than they are now. in the 70's we had far greater access to affordable housing for the majority and much more equal income distribution. Dominic Sandbrook writes very well on the subject. My point is in a democracy you take what the people give you. I loathe the EU because it is an attempt by an unelected elite who think they know better to permanently govern without the people .
@chrisshipitv: From @TheIFS: Gove was wrong to quote us that we could spend £8bn on NHS if UK votes LEAV as small 0.6% drop in national income also = £8bn
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
She did and she's v good, no doubt, but she has to be careful of sounding like being yet another foreigner ( for that's what she aspires to be ) lining up with Obama, Merkel, Rutte, Lagarde, Carney, et al lecturing the English as to what they should do. Surely too she must have her fingers crossed behind her back because it's a weird old situation she finds herself in, advocating Remain whilst really probably wanting Leave? Sort of "oh Lord let me do well - but not too well eh".
I don't think that's a fair summation of her interests. The SNP would clearly not like to have to face the choice between UK and EU. Their ideal 'full independence' scenario is predicated on England and Wales being in the EU too.
I'm still confident of a Remain victory by around 12-15 points.
Why?
I still think we are on for a remain victory but by a smaller margin. Primarily because I'm still in disbelief that leave could actually win this thing as well. I expected remain to be pulling ahead comfortably by this stage - I totally underestimated the publics overall disdain toward the EU
My best guess now - and I am on a roll - is that if Brexit does lead to significant economic difficulties the Conservative party will cease to exist as a serious political force in this country for many a long year. I suspect, too, that Brexit will hasten Corbyn's Labour end, as many party members who have supported him up to now really do care about EU membership (possibly another way they are divorced form Labour voters, of course). If, on the other hand, we get the golden age that Leave is promising us, Labour will be finished. Basically, the stakes are huge - not just for ordinary people but for the very future of one or both of our major parties.
Who takes over?
ISTR that after the GE, people were astonished at Mr Cameron's 'achievements' in managing to 'finish off' both the Lib Dem party and the Labour party.
Now that is an achievement.
I don't think the Conservative Party is finished, but it may well be that a major political realignment takes place.
We are seeing a little bit of that on pb.com with some Tory pro-Europeans feeling a draw to Labour whilst some of the Tory Brexiters/libertarian Kippers are feeling a closer affinity with traditional WWC Labour voters who feel the same way.
I think if it is Brexit then the party will be fine, a few may try and agitate to overturn the result but most MPs are going to fall in line. I've always said that if Dave came out in favour of Leave we would have seen 280 MPs, 80% of members and 70% of voters back Leave. The party is split by loyalty to the leadership, if the leadership changes to back Leave then it wont be split.
I know this is parallel universe stuff, but just supposing Mr Cameron threw his hands up, said "Sorry people, I really got this all wrong and mis-read the feeling in the electorate" and changed sides at this late hour.
What would happen then? I'm inclined to think Leavers would welcome that with acclaim and the electorate would follow him.
Ok, alternative universe and maybe even more likely: 'Thanks chaps for voting Leave and then making me PM, see the things is I've realised Johnny Foreigner isn't such a bad chap and I've changed my mind again. I'm going to renegotiate and stay.' Rt Hon B Johnson MP
"Cripes, now that I've read the detail, this renegotiation of Dave's was actually jolly good. Let's stick with this option and with me as PM I'll keep those Brussels busybodies in check."
Yes, better than my original - it was the 'Cripes' that did it!
To win REMAIN was relying upon Labour GE2015 voters for the single largest chunk of its vote. It therefore needed a Labour figurehead to front its campaign day in day out. To win the scots referendum the same conclusion was reached. Therefore Darling was selected and in the week before the vote he had 56% of the scots voters trusting him. Result = "No" won and the Scots remained in the UK. The strategy worked because it had a trusted front man.
For this EU referendum Cameron and Osborne told themselves that they were the best to front it day in day out. Cameron's trust rating had after a few weeks fallen to 18%. Yet they carried on with that strategy. Osborne's ratings are even lower, with a 2% Leadership rating. Result = We have had a week of polls where REMAIN is now behind LEAVE. The strategy has failed because........
Something very similar happened, I think, Mr Betting, with the AV Referendum. Labour let us all down then too.
The organising head of the winning No2AV is also the organising head of Vote LEAVE.
We have been assured many times of his acumen and the brilliance of appointing him.
and it does look like Matthew Elliott is well ahead of Will Straw. This referendum (if won) will be 3 in a row victories for Matthew.
I am not sure how Will Straw was offered the job even, I mean yes he has obvious connections, but other that than he appears to have been a third rate wonk and political bag carrier, and the public didn't like him enough to elect him in Rossendale and Darwen.
Yes. Such a track record of losing elections such as increasing the Conservative majority by 1,000 at the seat he stood in at GE2015. Another wonder in the REMAIN team is their strategy director Ryan, who was head of the Lib Dem campaign at GE2015. A remarkable record to base a campaign on.
I suspect it was as a direct result of David Camerons leadership that the Tory majority increased in Rossendale and the Lib Dems were wiped out.
I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd
Immediate thought: wow - big call.
Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.
We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.
Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.
Is it known what Leave needs in England (and Wales?) to cope with Scotland, NI and Gibraltar going heavily Remain?
(edited to add, good afternoon, everyone.)
Good afternoon.
Population of England : 53 million Population of Wales : 3 Million Population of Scotland : 5.3 million. Population of N. Ireland: 1.8M European residents : 1.5M
Assuming Everyone other than England/ Wales votes 60 -40 in favour of remain, then England/ Wales have to vote 52 - 48 in favour of Leave.
Thank you, that's very helpful.
NP - it is just that the population of England massively outweighs the population elsewhere. Of equal concern to Leave is the fact that Greater London (8.5 Million) is so pro-remain. If we factor that in at the same rate then the rest of England would have to vote 54-46.
I suspect Remain Tories will find it much easier to carry on supporting the party if they lose as it really isnt such a big deal to them as it is to Leavers. As you said most of us are supporting remain reluctantly out of loyalty to a man who led the party to the first majority for 20 odd years.
Yes I agree with that, the main part of the reluctant remainers will get on board with Brexit as soon as the leadership does. There will be a few traitors though who will agitate and force an election given how slim the majority is.
To be fair that's likely whichever side wins. Just can't see where Remainers would go to. If the Lib Dems had more seats/popularity and a more orange book base then I could see that being appealing to some. No Tory is going to touch Labour with a bargepole barring a change of leadership and an almighty shift to the centre.
Both Labour and the Tories have huge splits in their respective coalitions. The obvious answer is for them to split and realign. Nobody will do that until there are enough of them to take power for long enough to enact STV and call a new election.
Plato Maxpb- I can only agree and very strange it feels to. I am increasingly more in tune with left Leavers (and left UKIP like Paddy O'Flynn) than the Cameroon/Osbornite ascendency. The I could seriously see myself voting Labour if the candidate was a Leaver- which would have been unthinkable for me 6 months ago. The Tory party is now far more rancorously divided than the 90's.
My own feelings reflect that from a different viewpoint. I've reluctantly voted Conservative at the last two GEs because, although I'd much prefer to vote Labour, the issue of sound finances has ruled them out for me.
But I've discovered that the EU is an issue which beats even sound finances - any government is only for 5 years max, EU membership (eventually) is going to be forever. We've no vote on the powerful in the EU.
If we don't get the opportunity to vote the EU blighters out regularly, then we need to Leave.
If that means voting in (for 5 years) a set of UK blighters I wouldn't ordinarily look at, then so be it, I'm afraid.
Reading that I'm struck by how the symbolism of democracy is as important as the substance in ensuring continued public consent.
The problem comes when you realise that even hiring and firing the UK blighters is not sufficient to exercise the kind of control that you would like to see.
Yes. Corbyn et al are a headbanging exception . Even Juncker's better than that monstrosity, but take say H Benn. Not someone who shares too much of my domestic world view but at least I wouldn't doubt he'd be "one of ours". At least I can fire him every five years. That symbolism is important. No point electing a Govt if it turns out they're just a county council.
The remainder of the EU do not figure in our top 50 global trading partners for exports and imports.
It's worth remembering that the EU trade surplus with the UK has a strong cyclical element. Going back even five years and the picture was very different.
Since the Eurozone crisis, most EU countries import numbers have flatlined as consumption has been suppressed. That is beginning to change, so I'd expect strong import growth out of the Eurozone over the next five years. Essentially, as a bloc it should move from a 3% current account surplus to a 3% deficit.
NP - it is just that the population of England massively outweighs the population elsewhere. Of equal concern to Leave is the fact that Greater London (8.5 Million) is so pro-remain. If we factor that in at the same rate then the rest of England would have to vote 54-46.
The sole reason why the progressive lobby in England is so desperate to hang onto freedom of movement and mass immigration.
Where would the progressive cause in England be without London's portalectorate?
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
She did and she's v good, no doubt, but she has to be careful of sounding like being yet another foreigner ( for that's what she aspires to be ) lining up with Obama, Merkel, Rutte, Lagarde, Carney, et al lecturing the English as to what they should do. Surely too she must have her fingers crossed behind her back because it's a weird old situation she finds herself in, advocating Remain whilst really probably wanting Leave? Sort of "oh Lord let me do well - but not too well eh".
I don't think that's a fair summation of her interests. The SNP would clearly not like to have to face the choice between UK and EU. Their ideal 'full independence' scenario is predicated on England and Wales being in the EU too.
True. She's still in an odd place though all said!
Off topic - or is it? Gadzooks, yaroo, huzzah! No, it is not an extract from Boris Johnson's London mayoral election manifesto; it is but a few words in celebration of a hugely important cultural centenary: Billy Bunter is 100 this week. Or rather, he would have been had the type-two diabetes, the furred arteries, the heart disease, the osteoarthritis, the liver condition, the circulation issues, the gout, the breathing problems and the sleep apnoea not caught up with him long ago. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/jimwhite/3555158/Say-huzzah-for-Billy-Bunter-a-man-for-our-time.html
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
She did and she's v good, no doubt, but she has to be careful of sounding like being yet another foreigner ( for that's what she aspires to be ) lining up with Obama, Merkel, Rutte, Lagarde, Carney, et al lecturing the English as to what they should do. Surely too she must have her fingers crossed behind her back because it's a weird old situation she finds herself in, advocating Remain whilst really probably wanting Leave? Sort of "oh Lord let me do well - but not too well eh".
I don't think that's a fair summation of her interests. The SNP would clearly not like to have to face the choice between UK and EU. Their ideal 'full independence' scenario is predicated on England and Wales being in the EU too.
True. She's still in an odd place though all said!
Incidentally, how do the Brexit camp propose to deal with the unresolved British constitutional issues if they win? Ironically I would humbly suggest that we'd need to rush towards federalism to keep the country together.
I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd
Immediate thought: wow - big call.
Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.
We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.
Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.
Is it known what Leave needs in England (and Wales?) to cope with Scotland, NI and Gibraltar going heavily Remain?
(edited to add, good afternoon, everyone.)
Good afternoon.
Population of England : 53 million Population of Wales : 3 Million Population of Scotland : 5.3 million. Population of N. Ireland: 1.8M European residents : 1.5M
Assuming Everyone other than England/ Wales votes 60 -40 in favour of remain, then England/ Wales have to vote 52 - 48 in favour of Leave.
Thank you, that's very helpful.
NP - it is just that the population of England massively outweighs the population elsewhere. Of equal concern to Leave is the fact that Greater London (8.5 Million) is so pro-remain. If we factor that in at the same rate then the rest of England would have to vote 54-46.
Let's not forget that a disproportionate share of those 8.5 million a) will be too young to vote b) will not have UK voting rights or 3) will be younger and thus less likely to vote
@chrisshipitv: From @TheIFS: Gove was wrong to quote us that we could spend £8bn on NHS if UK votes LEAV as small 0.6% drop in national income also = £8bn
Bit moot. We won't get the savings until we formally quit the EU and enter our new trading relationship.
When we enter our new trading relationship business will have certainty and so national income will rise again, at the same time as the EU savings are realised.
@chrisshipitv: From @TheIFS: Gove was wrong to quote us that we could spend £8bn on NHS if UK votes LEAV as small 0.6% drop in national income also = £8bn
What a moronic tweet.
The Government doesn't grab 100% of National Income.
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
She did and she's v good, no doubt, but she has to be careful of sounding like being yet another foreigner ( for that's what she aspires to be ) lining up with Obama, Merkel, Rutte, Lagarde, Carney, et al lecturing the English as to what they should do. Surely too she must have her fingers crossed behind her back because it's a weird old situation she finds herself in, advocating Remain whilst really probably wanting Leave? Sort of "oh Lord let me do well - but not too well eh".
I don't think that's a fair summation of her interests. The SNP would clearly not like to have to face the choice between UK and EU. Their ideal 'full independence' scenario is predicated on England and Wales being in the EU too.
True. She's still in an odd place though all said!
Incidentally, how do the Brexit camp propose to deal with the unresolved British constitutional issues if they win? Ironically I would humbly suggest that we'd need to rush towards federalism to keep the country together.
Doubt they've given it a moment's thought! Though you make a good point. Lots and lots will be up in the air if it's a Leave vote.
Another point is how does Europe react longer term. Do they just continue sticking their fingers in their ears going "la la la ever closer union", or do they reflect a few months down the line "Christ we really did just lose the Brits. What the hell are we doing wrong?".
I’m now backing Remain to achieve less than 45% of the vote on June 23rd
Immediate thought: wow - big call.
Second thought: yes, that makes a lot of sense.
We've seen in any number of plebiscites opinion crystallise around one view as we head towards polling day. With Leave holding the momentum and with their supporters far more fired up than those for Remain, a progressive and decisive swing to Leave is entirely plausible. Add in the high-turnout oldies and never mind sub-45, it's not implausible that we could end up with a margin well into the teens if not beyond.
Not that that's necessarily likely, but it's well within the bounds of possibilities.
Is it known what Leave needs in England (and Wales?) to cope with Scotland, NI and Gibraltar going heavily Remain?
(edited to add, good afternoon, everyone.)
Good afternoon.
Population of England : 53 million Population of Wales : 3 Million Population of Scotland : 5.3 million. Population of N. Ireland: 1.8M European residents : 1.5M
Assuming Everyone other than England/ Wales votes 60 -40 in favour of remain, then England/ Wales have to vote 52 - 48 in favour of Leave.
Thank you, that's very helpful.
NP - it is just that the population of England massively outweighs the population elsewhere. Of equal concern to Leave is the fact that Greater London (8.5 Million) is so pro-remain. If we factor that in at the same rate then the rest of England would have to vote 54-46.
You conjure up a vision of a post-Remain scenario in which Ms Sturgeon proudly announces to her admiring throng, "Scotland and London together - Yes!!!"
Another point is how does Europe react longer term. Do they just continue sticking their fingers in their ears going "la la la ever closer union", or do they reflect a few months down the line "Christ we really did just lose the Brits. What the hell are we doing wrong?".
I think the French will control the narrative and it will be 'De Gaulle was right - we should never have let the perfidious Brits join in the first place'.
Another point is how does Europe react longer term. Do they just continue sticking their fingers in their ears going "la la la ever closer union", or do they reflect a few months down the line "Christ we really did just lose the Brits. What the hell are we doing wrong?".
I think the French will control the narrative and it will be 'De Gaulle was right - we should never have let the perfidious Brits join in the first place'.
Quite possibly. But it'd be a world of France plus 26 not France plus 5 with Germany meekly cowed in post war mode like pre 1973. Visegrad has all the potential to prove feisty and I doubt the Danes and Swedes will prove easy. I'd wish them all well though, it's not in our interests to have a bun fight on our doorstep.
Remain haven't helped themselves with their campaign - the going full scare tactic at the outset was designed to re enact 75, where it was won long before the short campaign.
But rather than make themselves as in 75, the establishment against a disparate group of Left and Right wing outcast (Benn & Powell), they have managed to make themselves look extreme.
As soon as that happened, the average man called 'Bullshit' of the wilder claims, and as we know, one obvious lie can shed doubt over the credibility of even true statements.
And if the people laugh at you, you have almost no chance to gain credibility again.
Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "The End is Nigh"
Cameron is like the man with sandwich board on Oxford Street which reads "My End is Nigh"
Osborne is like the guy with a sandwich board on Oxford Street which has an arrow indicating the direction of the GOLF SALE....
OT: I once went in the Golf shop off Regent St. (Maddox St); really quite impressive selection!
If Leave wins, we can only guess what will happen.
But surely one thing is certain - a Labour Government could not, and would not, negotiate the UK's exit from the EU - given that 90% of Labour MPs want to stay in and not one single leading figure in the party wants to leave.
So, if Leave wins:
Either: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM, there is no GE, and the Con Government leads the UK out of the EU.
Or: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM and calls a GE. Con would stand on a policy of leaving the EU. Lab would have to stand on a policy of staying in the EU - but presumably with a renegotiation of some sorts and maybe then another referendum (because they couldn't be seen to ignore the result of this referendum - if they did they would be annihilated).
Of course the above would be a very awkward position for Labour - which is why Labour may not agree to a dissolution of Parliament - meaning no GE.
Yes, it's worth remembering how Sturgeon outclassed everyone in the 2015 GE debate. If she's on form it could be an important moment. It will certainly make a change from seeing Cameron fronting the campaign.
She did and she's v good, no doubt, but she has to be careful of sounding like being yet another foreigner ( for that's what she aspires to be ) lining up with Obama, Merkel, Rutte, Lagarde, Carney, et al lecturing the English as to what they should do. Surely too she must have her fingers crossed behind her back because it's a weird old situation she finds herself in, advocating Remain whilst really probably wanting Leave? Sort of "oh Lord let me do well - but not too well eh".
I don't think that's a fair summation of her interests. The SNP would clearly not like to have to face the choice between UK and EU. Their ideal 'full independence' scenario is predicated on England and Wales being in the EU too.
True. She's still in an odd place though all said!
Incidentally, how do the Brexit camp propose to deal with the unresolved British constitutional issues if they win? Ironically I would humbly suggest that we'd need to rush towards federalism to keep the country together.
Doubt they've given it a moment's thought! Though you make a good point. Lots and lots will be up in the air if it's a Leave vote.
Another point is how does Europe react longer term. Do they just continue sticking their fingers in their ears going "la la la ever closer union", or do they reflect a few months down the line "Christ we really did just lose the Brits. What the hell are we doing wrong?".
I doubt if the EU will perceive the EU as having any problem. The UK is the problem and, if the UK is leaving, that will resolve the problem.
That might be right. I wish the EU well. I wish all countries that are in the EU well. I just don't want the UK to be part of it.
If Leave wins, we can only guess what will happen.
But surely one thing is certain - a Labour Government could not, and would not, negotiate the UK's exit from the EU - given that 90% of Labour MPs want to stay in and not one single leading figure in the party wants to leave.
So, if Leave wins:
Either: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM, there is no GE, and the Con Government leads the UK out of the EU.
Or: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM and calls a GE. Con would stand on a policy of leaving the EU. Lab would have to stand on a policy of staying in the EU - but presumably with a renegotiation of some sorts and maybe then another referendum (because they couldn't be seen to ignore the result of this referendum - if they did they would be annihilated).
Of course the above would be a very awkward position for Labour - which is why Labour may not agree to a dissolution of Parliament - meaning no GE.
I imagine in the event of LEAVE winning Jezza would tell his party that the British people have spoken and the game is up?
Comments
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/21/boris-johnson-eu-brexit-supports_n_9286400.html
I'm a Remainer and if you lot win I'll carry on supporting the Tories( as long as you pack that bell-end IDS off somewhere).
But I've discovered that the EU is an issue which beats even sound finances - any government is only for 5 years max, EU membership (eventually) is going to be forever. We've no vote on the powerful in the EU.
If we don't get the opportunity to vote the EU blighters out regularly, then we need to Leave.
If that means voting in (for 5 years) a set of UK blighters I wouldn't ordinarily look at, then so be it, I'm afraid.
Leave: @BorisJohnson @GiselaStuart @andrealeadsom
Remain: @NicolaSturgeon @angelaeagle @AmberRudd_MP
Benn "one can ask five questions: what power do you have; where did you get it; in whose interests do you exercise it; to whom are you accountable; and, how can we get rid of you?"
The problem comes when you realise that even hiring and firing the UK blighters is not sufficient to exercise the kind of control that you would like to see.
These will be BBC "undecideds " then? Yeah, right....
@BBCVickiYoung: Backbench MP Boris Johnson the most junior figure in this line up! https://t.co/TSazPfCOSY
Delighted to hear @wdjstraw admit on @BBCr4today "we'd be worse off if we stay in". He'll now be locked away in same cupboard as Lord Rose..
What would happen then? I'm inclined to think Leavers would welcome that with acclaim and the electorate would follow him.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/06/buzzfeed-rnctrump-223937#ixzz4AoHhrjvZ
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
He has no choice but to play it straight, overimpress, and generally perform very, very well.
'Thanks chaps for voting Leave and then making me PM, see the things is I've realised Johnny Foreigner isn't such a bad chap and I've changed my mind again. I'm going to renegotiate and stay.' Rt Hon B Johnson MP
.
EU Nations Trade with the UK (Exports / Surplus / Growth / Export to UK Rank)
Germany…………£61bn / £30bn / 1.3% / 3 (i.e we are their 3rd biggest market in the world)
Netherlands…….£31bn / £14bn / 1.6% / 3
France……………£24bn / £6bn / 1.3% / 3
Belgium………… £21bn / £9bn / 1.5% / 4
Italy……………….£16bn / £7bn / 1.0% / 4
Spain………………£14bn / £5bn / 3.4% / 4
Ireland……………£13bn / -£4.2bn / 9.2% / 2
Poland…………… £8bn / £5bn / 3.0% / 2
Sweden……………£7bn / £2bn / 4.2% / 2
Czech Republic….£5bn / £3bn / 3.0% / 5
Denmark………… £3bn / £1bn / 0.6% / 3
Austria…………….£3bn / £1bn / 1.6% / 7
Hungary……………£3bn / £1bn / 0.9% / 8
Portugal…………….£2bn / £1bn / 0.9% / 5
Finland…………… .£2bn / £1bn / 1.6% / 6
The remainder of the EU do not figure in our top 50 global trading partners for exports and imports.
Since the Eurozone crisis, most EU countries import numbers have flatlined as consumption has been suppressed. That is beginning to change, so I'd expect strong import growth out of the Eurozone over the next five years. Essentially, as a bloc it should move from a 3% current account surplus to a 3% deficit.
The sole reason why the progressive lobby in England is so desperate to hang onto freedom of movement and mass immigration.
Where would the progressive cause in England be without London's portalectorate?
Gadzooks, yaroo, huzzah! No, it is not an extract from Boris Johnson's London mayoral election manifesto; it is but a few words in celebration of a hugely important cultural centenary: Billy Bunter is 100 this week. Or rather, he would have been had the type-two diabetes, the furred arteries, the heart disease, the osteoarthritis, the liver condition, the circulation issues, the gout, the breathing problems and the sleep apnoea not caught up with him long ago.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/jimwhite/3555158/Say-huzzah-for-Billy-Bunter-a-man-for-our-time.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZkwu9NRfzs
When we enter our new trading relationship business will have certainty and so national income will rise again, at the same time as the EU savings are realised.
The Government doesn't grab 100% of National Income.
And Government expenditure isn't 100% on the NHS.
Another point is how does Europe react longer term. Do they just continue sticking their fingers in their ears going "la la la ever closer union", or do they reflect a few months down the line "Christ we really did just lose the Brits. What the hell are we doing wrong?".
THey are already paying GBP8bn, soon to rise to gawd knows what to pay for the EU's titanic policy disasters.
That's real, tangible, British taxpayer money we can get back, simply by saying no we won't pay.
And for ordinary people I reckon its more tangible than all the think tank projections out there.
Not fussed about 6 women and 1 chap, but do agree some people would be bleating if it were the other way around.
But surely one thing is certain - a Labour Government could not, and would not, negotiate the UK's exit from the EU - given that 90% of Labour MPs want to stay in and not one single leading figure in the party wants to leave.
So, if Leave wins:
Either: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM, there is no GE, and the Con Government leads the UK out of the EU.
Or: a Con Brexit supporter becomes PM and calls a GE. Con would stand on a policy of leaving the EU. Lab would have to stand on a policy of staying in the EU - but presumably with a renegotiation of some sorts and maybe then another referendum (because they couldn't be seen to ignore the result of this referendum - if they did they would be annihilated).
Of course the above would be a very awkward position for Labour - which is why Labour may not agree to a dissolution of Parliament - meaning no GE.
That might be right. I wish the EU well. I wish all countries that are in the EU well. I just don't want the UK to be part of it.