politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Independence Day is going to be mentioned a lot in the run
Comments
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You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:SeanT said:
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.0 -
Well the Telegraph had better heed the views of their customers.... or else.TheScreamingEagles said:Poll Alert
Leave 69%
Remain 29%
Is a poll of Telegraph subscribers. Ferfuxsake
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/05/eu-referendum-telegraph-subscribers-say-they-back-a-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Smiley thing.
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Sky Press Review has a Telegraph headline along the lines of Cameron Joins The Left.0
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Ah, that's much better :-)Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since 1906.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Wasn't it the worst result since 1861 or something?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Then within 5 years squandered that good will shown to him by the electorateTheScreamingEagles said:
Sir John 'Received more votes as PM than any another PM/Party leader in history' MajorSunil_Prasannan said:This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
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Milan projection (20% of the sample): PD 42.6 Forza Italia/Lega 37.2 5 Stars 12.8 Left 3.8
Turin (9%): PD 41.8 5 Stars 31.7
Ravenna (6.5%): PD 42.3 Right 28.3
Varese (5%): Right 46.2 PD 42.90 -
Grief ..... Is that really the rubbish I've been staying up for, plus I'm sure this poll or something very similar, involving Telegraph readers appeared on PB earlier today.BenedictWhite said:
ROFLMAO.TheScreamingEagles said:Poll Alert
Leave 69%
Remain 29%
Is a poll of Telegraph subscribers. Ferfuxsake
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/05/eu-referendum-telegraph-subscribers-say-they-back-a-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Had me going for a micro second but I looked at my clock.0 -
I mentioned it down below, the Telegraph have lost their marbles.chestnut said:Sky Press Review has a Telegraph headline along the lines of Cameron Joins The Left.
Boris campaigning for Leave alongside Labour and UKIP people is good
Dave campaigning for Remain alongside Labour and Green people is bad.0 -
It isn't There are proper polls out at midnight.peter_from_putney said:
Grief ..... Is that really the rubbish I've been staying up for, plus I'm sure this poll or something very similar, involving Telegraph readers appeared on PB earlier today.BenedictWhite said:
ROFLMAO.TheScreamingEagles said:Poll Alert
Leave 69%
Remain 29%
Is a poll of Telegraph subscribers. Ferfuxsake
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/05/eu-referendum-telegraph-subscribers-say-they-back-a-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Had me going for a micro second but I looked at my clock.0 -
Major an appalling Leader.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since 1906.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Wasn't it the worst result since 1861 or something?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Then within 5 years squandered that good will shown to him by the electorateTheScreamingEagles said:
Sir John 'Received more votes as PM than any another PM/Party leader in history' MajorSunil_Prasannan said:This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Heath and Cameron. One is a man who won one parliamentary majority, split his party, is exposed to have no political principles, is a europhile and desperately hangs onto a european economic system because his civil servants tell him it is a good idea. The other chap likes yachts and conducting.0 -
Isn't that the plan? A price worth paying and all that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We had 330,000 last year and 5% unemployment. Immigration will never be in tens of thousands unless our economy collapsesBenedictWhite said:
If there is the political will and we are outside of the EU he could.Big_G_NorthWales said:I heard Michael Gove saying he would get immigration down to the tens of thousands. Hostage to fortune there, thought he would have learnt from DC
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Dave in December reckoned we could "do OK" outside the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
I mentioned it down below, the Telegraph have lost their marbles.chestnut said:Sky Press Review has a Telegraph headline along the lines of Cameron Joins The Left.
Boris campaigning for Leave alongside Labour and UKIP people is good
Dave campaigning for Remain alongside Labour and Green people is bad.0 -
Good luck with socialism, if they let you stay.TheScreamingEagles said:
Making plans for opening up a Paris office/subsidiary.RobD said:
Stockpiling the bunker?TheScreamingEagles said:
We should never have the same interest rates (or the same currency) as our continental cousins.Mortimer said:
Next you're going to start claiming we were right to join the ERM?TheScreamingEagles said:
The Tories still led/tied in some ICM polls after Black Wednesday.Mortimer said:
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.Jobabob said:
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.Sunil_Prasannan said:This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
BTW, did you get to Tooting? I'm (quite literally) laid up with a bad back so won't make it. Truly saddened!
I was meant to go this forthcoming week, but our Brexit contingency planning has a put a nix to that.
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No. It isn't.williamglenn said:
Isn't that the plan? A price worth paying and all that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We had 330,000 last year and 5% unemployment. Immigration will never be in tens of thousands unless our economy collapsesBenedictWhite said:
If there is the political will and we are outside of the EU he could.Big_G_NorthWales said:I heard Michael Gove saying he would get immigration down to the tens of thousands. Hostage to fortune there, thought he would have learnt from DC
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Wide Screen?hunchman said:Oh god - Caroline Nokes on Sky News now.
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As a true British patriot, my aspiration for this country is doing better than OK.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Dave in December reckoned we could "do OK" outside the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
I mentioned it down below, the Telegraph have lost their marbles.chestnut said:Sky Press Review has a Telegraph headline along the lines of Cameron Joins The Left.
Boris campaigning for Leave alongside Labour and UKIP people is good
Dave campaigning for Remain alongside Labour and Green people is bad.
Remain = The true patriotic option
Leave = The refuge of the EDL, Neo Nazis, and the BNP0 -
I have just turned that on and all I can see is Julia HB.hunchman said:Oh god - Caroline Nokes on Sky News now.
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No. Leave is the true patriotic democratic option.TheScreamingEagles said:
As a true British patriot, my aspiration for this country is doing better than OK.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Dave in December reckoned we could "do OK" outside the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
I mentioned it down below, the Telegraph have lost their marbles.chestnut said:Sky Press Review has a Telegraph headline along the lines of Cameron Joins The Left.
Boris campaigning for Leave alongside Labour and UKIP people is good
Dave campaigning for Remain alongside Labour and Green people is bad.
Remain = The true patriotic option
Leave = The refuge of the EDL, Neo Nazis, and the BNP0 -
You desperate for clickbait to get the traffic numbers up for OGH while he is away?TheScreamingEagles said:
As a true British patriot, my aspiration for this country is doing better than OK.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Dave in December reckoned we could "do OK" outside the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
I mentioned it down below, the Telegraph have lost their marbles.chestnut said:Sky Press Review has a Telegraph headline along the lines of Cameron Joins The Left.
Boris campaigning for Leave alongside Labour and UKIP people is good
Dave campaigning for Remain alongside Labour and Green people is bad.
Remain = The true patriotic option
Leave = The refuge of the EDL, Neo Nazis, and the BNP
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Thanks. I am genuinely puzzled as to why the Leave campaign is failing to cite the balance of payments with the EU in order to counter the economic claims of the Remain camp.peter_from_putney said:
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:SeanT said:
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.
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Because they're shit. Thanks for an excellent economic summation.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Thanks. I am genuinely puzzled as to why the Leave campaign is failing to cite the balance of payments with the EU in order to counter the economic claims of the Remain camp.peter_from_putney said:
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:SeanT said:
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.0 -
That 5% represents 1.7 million people unemployed.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We had 330,000 last year and 5% unemployment. Immigration will never be in tens of thousands unless our economy collapsesBenedictWhite said:
If there is the political will and we are outside of the EU he could.Big_G_NorthWales said:I heard Michael Gove saying he would get immigration down to the tens of thousands. Hostage to fortune there, thought he would have learnt from DC
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Yes, and lets not go into his nefarious private life or the dubious aspects of Morning Cloud.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Major an appalling Leader.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since 1906.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Wasn't it the worst result since 1861 or something?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Then within 5 years squandered that good will shown to him by the electorateTheScreamingEagles said:
Sir John 'Received more votes as PM than any another PM/Party leader in history' MajorSunil_Prasannan said:This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Heath and Cameron. One is a man who won one parliamentary majority, split his party, is exposed to have no political principles, is a europhile and desperately hangs onto a european economic system because his civil servants tell him it is a good idea. The other chap likes yachts and conducting.
Julia HB on Sky now as you say.0 -
Governments picking winners, and you lock out actual entrepreneurs like Elon Musk because they're immigrants. This would prove less of a winning formula than you're imagining.PAW said:The reason I will vote for exit is this - http://electrek.co/2016/06/02/tesla-model-3-fully-autonomous-elon-musk/?preview_id=17536 . If we want any part of new industries the government must take a part, and we are being locked out of the future by the EU because we cannot make any strategic investments. The remainers advance their personal financial status over the us, I don't care about people with apartments in France or Italy. I couldn't care less about holidays in Europe for the middle class. The middle class has become a parasite.
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If we take Gove at his word, then he should do so this week.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Thanks. I am genuinely puzzled as to why the Leave campaign is failing to cite the balance of payments with the EU in order to counter the economic claims of the Remain camp.peter_from_putney said:
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:SeanT said:
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.0 -
I share your sentiments on la Raggi;tyson said:
Well done Nick...good summary.NickPalmer said:
Well, Andrea will correct me but my understanding is:peter_from_putney said:
Are we supposed to know who or what these parties are and what they stand for?NickPalmer said:
How does this compare with expectations, Andrea?AndreaParma_82 said:Exit polls from Italian mayoral elections
Rome
Raggi (5 Stars) 34-38%
Giochetti (PD) 20-24
Meloni (Right) 16-20
Marchino (Forza Italia) 9-13
Fassina (Left) 3-6
Milan
Sala (PD) 41-45
Parisi (Forza Italia & Lega) 35-39
5 Stars 8-12
Turin
Fassino (PD) 39-42
5 Stars 28-32
Right 7-11
Naples
De Magistris 43-47
Lettieri (Forza Italia) 20-24
Valente (PD) 15-19
PD is the Government - centre-left, mainstream former communists plus centrists, led by Renzi (charismatic young Blairite)
Forza is Berlusconi - centre-right and primarily a vehicle for him
5 stars is Beppo - the populists, kick the rascals out. No very stable political position
The Left are those former communists and others who didn't fancy moving to the centre
de Magistris is an independent former prosecutor.
One thing that I never thought I'd say though is that come June 24th the Italian Political system may well seem to be much more stable and coherent than our own.
Andrea might not like to hear this, but Renzi is class. After Merkel, the standout political leader in Europe and someone who hopefully will lead Italy for some time to come.
I am very pleased though that Raggi, 5 Star, has taken Rome. I like her very much.
http://www.unita.tv/opinioni/a-destra-tutti-pazzi-per-valeria-raggi/0 -
I have also cited the relative duty charges of the UK and EU under WTO rules.Luckyguy1983 said:
Because they're shit. Thanks for an excellent economic summation.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Thanks. I am genuinely puzzled as to why the Leave campaign is failing to cite the balance of payments with the EU in order to counter the economic claims of the Remain camp.peter_from_putney said:
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.Wulfrun_Phil said:I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.0 -
GBPUSD trading heavy at 1.4465 in advance of the two polls. We know one shows a leave lead, what about the other?0
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I hope that's a joke TSE, otherwise you have demeaned yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:Sunil_Prasannan said:
Dave in December reckoned we could "do OK" outside the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
I mentioned it down below, the Telegraph have lost their marbles.chestnut said:Sky Press Review has a Telegraph headline along the lines of Cameron Joins The Left.
Boris campaigning for Leave alongside Labour and UKIP people is good
Dave campaigning for Remain alongside Labour and Green people is bad.
Leave = The refuge of the EDL, Neo Nazis, and the BNP
Not a bad thread though this time, albeit a tad bizarre re the cinema sequel.0 -
Only two minutes to waithunchman said:GBPUSD trading heavy at 1.4465 in advance of the two polls. We know one shows a leave lead, what about the other?
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Are we there yet are we there yet are we there yet?
I think the midnight polls will show a LEAVE lead. Yesterday's ORB showed a swing to LEAVE on the old methodology.0 -
IIUC these are net migration numbers, so to be confident of keeping them at those levels you have to ban British people from returning and/or require British people to leave.BenedictWhite said:
No. You can simply tell people they can't come in. It means that there will be more competition for employees and so wages will rise.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We had 330,000 last year and 5% unemployment. Immigration will never be in tens of thousands unless our economy collapsesBenedictWhite said:
If there is the political will and we are outside of the EU he could.Big_G_NorthWales said:I heard Michael Gove saying he would get immigration down to the tens of thousands. Hostage to fortune there, thought he would have learnt from DC
A shitty economy would accomplish this naturally, though.0 -
Embargo ends at 00.01viewcode said:Are we there yet are we there yet are we there yet?
I think the midnight polls will show a LEAVE lead. Yesterday's ORB showed a swing to LEAVE on the old methodology.0 -
Latest TNS EU Ref poll
Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5)
Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/50 -
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not really worth the hype !TheScreamingEagles said:Latest TNS EU Ref poll
Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5)
Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/50 -
Hmph, a bit of an anticlimax, truth be told.TheScreamingEagles said:Latest TNS EU Ref poll
Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5)
Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/50 -
A lot of use that over 10 days out of date now! Why release so late?!TheScreamingEagles said:Latest TNS EU Ref poll
Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5)
Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/50 -
Did they lose that one down the back of the sofa?TheScreamingEagles said:Latest TNS EU Ref poll
Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5)
Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/50 -
That's kind of.... anticlimacticTheScreamingEagles said:Latest TNS EU Ref poll
Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5)
Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/5
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Is part of a EU wide poll, the fieldwork of that ended last weekhunchman said:
A lot of use that over 10 days out of date now! Why release so late?!TheScreamingEagles said:Latest TNS EU Ref poll
Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5)
Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/50 -
A fortnight ago? What took them so long?!TheScreamingEagles said:Latest TNS EU Ref poll
Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5)
Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/5
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Presumably TNS is online?0
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What about the second poll?0
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So TSE you think only racists are concerned about democracy freedom and immigration and an unelected eu elite. Just because this is a free country and even the extremists can tag onto leave or remain doesn't mean the cause is unreasonable. You do demean yourself by such commentsEstobar said:
I hope that's a joke TSE, otherwise you have demeaned yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:
SSunil_Prasannan said:
Dave in December reckoned we could "do OK" outside the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
I mentioned it down below, the Telegraph have lost their marbles.chestnut said:Sky Press Review has a Telegraph headline along the lines of Cameron Joins The Left.
Boris campaigning for Leave alongside Labour and UKIP people is good
Dave campaigning for Remain alongside Labour and Green people is bad.
Leave = The refuge of the EDL, Neo Nazis, and the BNP
Not a bad thread though this time, albeit a tad bizarre re the cinema sequel.0 -
EU refernedum poll:
Remain: 41% (-)
Leave: 45% (+4)
(via YouGov)
Chgs. from 30 - 31 May.0 -
0
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Bob...Bob...what happened to that poll we did the other week...oh s##t...you mean this one....pulls out the bottom of his bag.0
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There's a YouGov poll out for the GMB which is
Leave 45 Remain 41 - Am still waiting for the fieldwork dates on that one0 -
But how about that Yougov, folks!0
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What - even the French?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
@ TNS 0 -
Yougov poll
Remain 41 -1
Leave 45 +60 -
The problem is not Bosch and VW but the service industries which will become overloaded with regulation.peter_from_putney said:
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:SeanT said:
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.0 -
@ YouGov 0 -
Over a third of French voters want us to leave though, no surprise given De Gaulle vetoed UK entry in the first place!Richard_Tyndall said:0 -
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I'm guessing a lot of comments tomorrow are going to suggest that Remain need to go harder on the economic argument. Yawn.
Poor strategy and poor execution by Remain is leading to poll leads for Leave. This might just happen.0 -
I've had four fooking hours with this poll, and I still balls it upRichard_Tyndall said:
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7395941141157027840 -
We can do it.0
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Re the TNS poll
Since our previous poll, changes have been made to the past political weighting and the EU referendum voting intentions are now turnout adjusted. Further details are included in the methodological note which prefaces the data tables0 -
I'm sure we had those "Please don't go" figures from our EU neighbours 2 or 3 days ago or at least something very similar.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Desperate news for Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
LOL. Don't worry mate. We may swear at you for your treasonous views but we do still very much appreciate the work you put in on the site.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've had four fooking hours with this poll, and I still balls it upRichard_Tyndall said:
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7395941141157027840 -
I need to remind you that I put £500 on LEAVE@5/2 on Friday.
I may have mentioned it.0 -
This should knock wailing Sir John off the news cycle. What a shame for the chap.0
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Errrr nope! Just gone and collapsed to 1.4375 area - somebody is $hitting themselves.hunchman said:0 -
Wrong. It confirms a trend.SeanT said:
Utterly useless poll, for either side. Too oldTheScreamingEagles said:Latest TNS EU Ref poll
Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5)
Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/50 -
Confirmation that Cameron could have struck a much harder bargain if he'd really tried.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It explains Major being wheeled out to be rude. Name calling is all they've got left.Mortimer said:I'm guessing a lot of comments tomorrow are going to suggest that Remain need to go harder on the economic argument. Yawn.
Poor strategy and poor execution by Remain is leading to poll leads for Leave. This might just happen.0 -
Leave > 30% on Betfair0
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Have we got ICM tomorrow (today) ?0
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Well these polls have moved Betfair significantly.
Remain out from 1.39 to 1.44 in the last 10 minutes.
Leave in from 3.5 to 3.2.0 -
I've a thread in the pipeline suggesting more reasons why Remain are losing - was worried it might be overtaken by events but looks like it might yet be timely.SeanT said:
OK that's big.PlatoSaid said:EU refernedum poll:
Remain: 41% (-)
Leave: 45% (+4)
(via YouGov)
Chgs. from 30 - 31 May.
LEAVE is now clearly leading.
There will be crossover in the next poll of polls.
What are the chances of this? I doubt this is on the REMAINIACS grid.
lol
Can we have a yet another pb threader on the total shitness of the LEAVE campaign? Thanks. It will help any of us who want to bet, when we know to bet entirely the other way.0 -
Oh!0
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I wonder if we going to get an EU vow.0
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Does this mean they might have to travel...Roger said:
The problem is not Bosch and VW but the service industries which will become overloaded with regulation.peter_from_putney said:
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.Wulfrun_Phil said:
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:SeanT said:
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.
*shudders*
...business class?0 -
Peter Kellner - based on these figures from your own polling company, do you still believe that "REMAIN are probably still ahead .... just" ??0
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Deleted0
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I think that horse has bolted TSE! We're pretty damn excited.TheScreamingEagles said:Before you all get over excited by that YouGov, the fieldwork dates haven't been confirmed, and the last YouGov/GMB poll was fairly old by the time it came out.
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LolTheScreamingEagles said:Before you all get over excited by that YouGov, the fieldwork dates haven't been confirmed, and the last YouGov/GMB poll was fairly old by the time it came out.
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Not sure what you mean, but I think we are getting quite close to Cameron making an "emergency" appeal for the people to vote REMAIN.MP_SE said:I wonder if we going to get an EU vow.
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Correction it's a poll for Good Morning Britain, not the GMB union0
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Very much agreed and sell Sterling too, like the smart money already has from the USD 1.47 high.SeanT said:
Yes possibly. I was a bit frustrated, given the build up.RodCrosby said:
Wrong. It confirms a trend.SeanT said:
Utterly useless poll, for either side. Too oldTheScreamingEagles said:Latest TNS EU Ref poll
Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5)
Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/5
There is definitely a trend. It mirrors the Sindyref trend but starts from a higher base, and with less pushback from a silent minority.
OUT could VERY easily win this, now.
I reckon Cameron is now toast, whatever happens. That's where the VALUE is.
Need to catch some sleep.
Good night all. Good night remain apologists. Vote LEAVE.0 -
Up to a week or so ago they were using the machinery of government to come up with a series of spurious official "studies" making the Remain case and dominating the news agenda as each one was issued in succession on a daily basis. Now we're in the official campaign period they can't do that and the playing field has been levelled.PlatoSaid said:
It explains Major being wheeled out to be rude. Name calling is all they've got left.Mortimer said:I'm guessing a lot of comments tomorrow are going to suggest that Remain need to go harder on the economic argument. Yawn.
Poor strategy and poor execution by Remain is leading to poll leads for Leave. This might just happen.
The change just happens to coincide with the resurgence of Leave in the polls.0 -
Haha Sean. Come off the fence please?SeanT said:
Have you not got a threader on how SHIT the LEAVE campaign is, to console yourself? You ran seventeen fucking thousand of them earlier in the month, despite some of us telling you this was bollocks?TheScreamingEagles said:Deleted
Surely there's one left? No? Just one? Maybe an earnest nine hundred page analysis by Alistair Meeks? No? Really? Nothing?
What a farce you have made of this site. A BETTING site. And we warned you, time and again.
Spot on though. This site is crap sometimes.* It got GE2015 utterly wrong, thanks to the thread writers' refusal to remove their blinkers. You'd think they'd have learned some humility but, nope, the same old one-sided garbage thread after thread despite clearly and evidentially flying in the face of public opinion (and the majority of punters on here).
* Cue kindergarten response of: if you don't like it then leave nah nah nah nah0 -
Mind you it was about this time in indyref yougov had Yes ahead, still a fortnight to go and the main change is some undecideds have shifted to Leave while Remain is unchanged, where the rest of the undecideds go will be pivotal. Goodnightpeter_from_putney said:Peter Kellner - based on these figures from your own polling company, do you still believe that "REMAIN are probably still ahead .... just" ??
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Betfair stabilises - ticks back from 1.44 to 1.43.0
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What I would like to see now is a Wisdom Index.
Think someone is doing Wisdom polls on EU as well as normal voting intention.
Wisdom is key - to what extent are changes in voting intention feeding through into the Wisdom?0 -
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