Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.
I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.
We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.
So does it really matter?
If you are a business whose costs are primarily in sterling but sales based on long term contracts are in foreign currencies you either have an enormous risk to currency swings or are forced to have major hedging exposure which a concomitant balance sheet issue. The entire aerospace industry, for example.
He was surprisingly good in his interview, I didn't realise he is so into politics
How can you not have known that? He has being at the forefront of just about every failed political campaign of the last decade. I think the only one he was on the sinning side for was Scotland. I am hoping he keeps up his almost perfect record.
That's too good to have been a typo!
LOL. It was honestly. :-)
For the record I absolutely love Izzard's comedy. I think his observational style is just brilliant. He is also one of those I would consider the good guys on the Pro EU side. He is a strong believer in a federalist Europe and has made no secret of this. I may not agree with him but he is always absolutely honest about his views, whether popular or not.
Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.
I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.
We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.
So does it really matter?
Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.
Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.
I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.
We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.
So does it really matter?
Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.
BTW - If the D-day landings had failed on June 6th it is still pretty likely the west would have taken at least France - remember that Rome was liberated on 5th June 1944. - and it took 2 1/2 months to Liberate Paris (25th August - which is my birthday (but not birth year)). Germany would also have been able to release some forces to the Eastern Front (at least for a while), as the Allies, recovered, trained and replaced the lost troops.
Worthwhile finding out about the D-day landings - especially fortitude North, Fortitude South, FUSAG etc.
Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.
I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.
We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.
So does it really matter?
Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.
It would make the cost of your Thai whores go up .
He was surprisingly good in his interview, I didn't realise he is so into politics
You are joking right? In 2020, it will be Eddie Izzard MP...
I rarely listen to any celebrity and take little notice of them, but he would make a good labour MP by the sounds of it
You obviously haven't listened when he actually gets asked proper questions on politics. He got a softball one last week on R5 and he talked utter nonsense.
Don't laugh immediately, but Britain needs to have more referendums.
Swiss and Irish have referendums all the time about European and other topics, and they don't seem to get as bitter. Maybe people accept that they will often be on the opposite side to friends and colleagues.
There's a lot in that. And there's a well-accepted tradition that strong losers get concessions - e.g. after 40% voted to abolish the armed forces, the Government acknowledged the concern by reducing the military budget.
Presumably the equivalent would be if a Brexit government followed a narrow win by becoming closely aligned through the EEA, or Cameron won and announced a programme of robust scepticism.
The other charm of the Swiss system is that it gives small or extreme groups something constructive to do, since the tradition is that every proposal is considered on its merits, not on whether you like the proponents. For instance, the Basel Communist Party (vote share less than 0.5%) successfully got a proposal through to halt further development of inner-city car parks on environmental grounds.
By the way, enjoyed Benedict on the last thread arguing that George Galloway's motivation for supporting Leave is his passion for democracy. You sure about that?
Yes I agree. I think the lack of any kind of referendum on "Europe" for over 40 years is a major driver of Leave's passion. I think personally having one on the Lisbon treaty would've served us all well. There would be less call to have this one at all, and less "this is our only chance in a lifetime" about it for Leavers (which perversely might've helped Remain). Whatever happens it would do the winning side well to note that the other side had sincerely held views that should be taken into account in terms of maybe not leaving too far if Leave win and not integrating any further should Remain win, assuming it is pretty close either way which looks likely ( further opinion polling disasters as a caveat).
Absolutely right. All this sturm und drang could have been avoided if europhiles (like NPXMP) hadn't been such a bunch of devious shits, and had given us a referendum earlier, as they so often promised to do.
We could have kicked the Lisbon Treaty into touch and the EU might have reformed in a more democratic manner.
Specifically what democratic reform do you think you'd have got by killing the Lisbon Treaty?
Not sure, but we should have got something tangible for all those vetoes we threw away in Lisbon.
Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.
I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.
We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.
So does it really matter?
If you are a business whose costs are primarily in sterling but sales based on long term contracts are in foreign currencies you either have an enormous risk to currency swings or are forced to have major hedging exposure which a concomitant balance sheet issue. The entire aerospace industry, for example.
Yeah, I know. Which is so much of big business was in favour of the euro.
Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.
I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.
We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.
So does it really matter?
Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.
It would make the cost of your Thai whores go up .
He was surprisingly good in his interview, I didn't realise he is so into politics
How can you not have known that? He has being at the forefront of just about every failed political campaign of the last decade. I think the only one he was on the sinning side for was Scotland. I am hoping he keeps up his almost perfect record
Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.
I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.
We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.
So does it really matter?
Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.
REMAIN will narrowly win, then the EU will carry on grinding our democracy into dust, and the people will feel ashamed and remorseful, and they will take their revenge on Cameron and Osborne. It will be like the Scots post indyref, but much much worse, as the Scots, at least, got more powers following NO. We will have more powers taken away from us following IN. I do not see how REMAINIANS can possibly avoid this. The only hope for them - as career politicians - is that they lose.
If REMAIN win, there will however be so many red lines drawn up which the EU will break and the LEAVE newspapers will point out each and every minor breech with the cry "you promised us this would not happen". Buckets of smelly stuff chucked over which ever unfortunate politician was in office at that time. REMAINers think that life will return back to what it was, but it will not.
Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.
I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.
We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.
So does it really matter?
Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.
It would make the cost of your Thai whores go up .
Senior moment.
Yes wrong Sean
Wrong box on your ballot paper as well.
Oh well, joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth, more than over ninety and nine just persons, which need no repentance.
Yes I agree. I think the lack of any kind of referendum on "Europe" for over 40 years is a major driver of Leave's passion. I think personally having one on the Lisbon treaty would've served us all well. There would be less call to have this one at all, and less "this is our only chance in a lifetime" about it for Leavers (which perversely might've helped Remain). Whatever happens it would do the winning side well to note that the other side had sincerely held views that should be taken into account in terms of maybe not leaving too far if Leave win and not integrating any further should Remain win, assuming it is pretty close either way which looks likely ( further opinion polling disasters as a caveat).
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
The lack of passion on the remain side is quite telling when it comes to judging sincerity, when people are left pitching staying as the least worst option or because they don't want the Tory party to possibly fall into the hands of IDS or something stupid like that then it's not exactly difficult to see why people don't believe them to be sincere in their belief that the EU is and should remain as part of our future. It's also quite telling that the true passionate EUphiles have been told to keep their mouths shut because their federalism argument is extremely toxic for remain, if the remain side gave even a hint that they are in favour of the UK becoming part of the European state then leave would seize on any comments and win the referendum with it.
Finally, on sincerity, the main argument that is being put across by the remain side is that we should avoid a possible 2-4 point GDP drop that may come with a leave vote, given that in 2008 we suffered a 7 point GDP drop and we're still here and still standing tall and still one of the strongest developed economies in the world the idea that leaving the EU and the 2-4 point GDP drop will cause our nation to become a third world backwater comes across as complete fantasy let alone having any kind of sincerity.
They look, sound like and probably are insincere, for the most part. Those who do sincerely believe in the EU are being kept quiet because the public have no appetite for any further integration.
BTW - If the D-day landings had failed on June 6th it is still pretty likely the west would have taken at least France - remember that Rome was liberated on 5th June 1944. - and it took 2 1/2 months to Liberate Paris (25th August - which is my birthday (but not birth year)). Germany would also have been able to release some forces to the Eastern Front (at least for a while), as the Allies, recovered, trained and replaced the lost troops.
Worthwhile finding out about the D-day landings - especially fortitude North, Fortitude South, FUSAG etc.
What I don't get is Stalin insisting on a much earlier D-Day (say summer 1943). If that happened, wouldn't the Western Allies have reached Berlin first, and maybe even Warsaw?
Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.
I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.
We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.
So does it really matter?
Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.
It would make the cost of your Thai whores go up .
REMAIN will narrowly win, then the EU will carry on grinding our democracy into dust, and the people will feel ashamed and remorseful, and they will take their revenge on Cameron and Osborne. It will be like the Scots post indyref, but much much worse, as the Scots, at least, got more powers following NO. We will have more powers taken away from us following IN. I do not see how REMAINIANS can possibly avoid this. The only hope for them - as career politicians - is that they lose.
If REMAIN win, there will however be so many red lines drawn up which the EU will break and the LEAVE newspapers will point out each and every minor breech with the cry "you promised us this would not happen". Buckets of smelly stuff chucked over which ever unfortunate politician was in office at that time. REMAINers think that life will return back to what it was, but it will not.
Problem is it will be a gradual chipping away at our sovereignty. This is done deliberately to make the case for another referendum weaker. For example, finding out that we don't have a complete opt out from the European Public Prosecutor's Office will not trigger another referendum. There will be some grumbling but noone is going to call a referendum over it.
Don't laugh immediately, but Britain needs to have more referendums.
Swiss and Irish have referendums all the time about European and other topics, and they don't seem to get as bitter. Maybe people accept that they will often be on the opposite side to friends and colleagues.
There's a lot in that. And there's a well-accepted tradition that strong losers get concessions - e.g. after 40% voted to abolish the armed forces, the Government acknowledged the concern by reducing the military budget.
Presumably the equivalent would be if a Brexit government followed a narrow win by becoming closely aligned through the EEA, or Cameron won and announced a programme of robust scepticism.
The other charm of the Swiss system is that it gives small or extreme groups something constructive to do, since the tradition is that every proposal is considered on its merits, not on whether you like the proponents. For instance, the Basel Communist Party (vote share less than 0.5%) successfully got a proposal through to halt further development of inner-city car parks on environmental grounds.
By the way, enjoyed Benedict on the last thread arguing that George Galloway's motivation for supporting Leave is his passion for democracy. You sure about that?
Yes I agree. I think the lack of any kind of referendum on "Europe" for over 40 years is a major driver of Leave's passion. I think personally having one on the Lisbon treaty would've served us all well. There would be less call to have this one at all, and less "this is our only chance in a lifetime" about it for Leavers (which perversely might've helped Remain). Whatever happens it would do the winning side well to note that the other side had sincerely held views that should be taken into account in terms of maybe not leaving too far if Leave win and not integrating any further should Remain win, assuming it is pretty close either way which looks likely ( further opinion polling disasters as a caveat).
Absolutely right. All this sturm und drang could have been avoided if europhiles (like NPXMP) hadn't been such a bunch of devious shits, and had given us a referendum earlier, as they so often promised to do.
We could have kicked the Lisbon Treaty into touch and the EU might have reformed in a more democratic manner.
Specifically what democratic reform do you think you'd have got by killing the Lisbon Treaty?
Not sure, but we should have got something tangible for all those vetoes we threw away in Lisbon.
If you're trying to make changes, you don't do it by preserving a veto on everything and anything by Luxembourg or Estonia.
BTW - If the D-day landings had failed on June 6th it is still pretty likely the west would have taken at least France - remember that Rome was liberated on 5th June 1944. - and it took 2 1/2 months to Liberate Paris (25th August - which is my birthday (but not birth year)). Germany would also have been able to release some forces to the Eastern Front (at least for a while), as the Allies, recovered, trained and replaced the lost troops.
Worthwhile finding out about the D-day landings - especially fortitude North, Fortitude South, FUSAG etc.
Operation Bagration was destroying German Army Group Centre as the D day landings went on. After that it was seemingly inevitable that Germany would collapse.
Though the Brusilov offensive nearly exactly 100 years ago today was also an extraordinary feat of Generalship. Hard to believe how the Tsarist Russian forces would collapse just 6 months later. Reverses in war soon happen.
Don't laugh immediately, but Britain needs to have more referendums.
Swiss and Irish have referendums all the time about European and other topics, and they don't seem to get as bitter. Maybe people accept that they will often be on the opposite side to friends and colleagues.
There's a lot in that. And there's a well-accepted tradition that strong losers get concessions - e.g. after 40% voted to abolish the armed forces, the Government acknowledged the concern by reducing the military budget.
Presumably the equivalent would be if a Brexit government followed a narrow win by becoming closely aligned through the EEA, or Cameron won and announced a programme of robust scepticism.
The other charm of the Swiss system is that it gives small or extreme groups something constructive to do, since the tradition is that every proposal is considered on its merits, not on whether you like the proponents. For instance, the Basel Communist Party (vote share less than 0.5%) successfully got a proposal through to halt further development of inner-city car parks on environmental grounds.
By the way, enjoyed Benedict on the last thread arguing that George Galloway's motivation for supporting Leave is his passion for democracy. You sure about that?
Yes I agree. I think the lack of any kind of referendum on "Europe" for over 40 years is a major driver of Leave's passion. I think personally having one on the Lisbon treaty would've served us all well. There would be less call to have this one at all, and less "this is our only chance in a lifetime" about it for Leavers (which perversely might've helped Remain). Whatever happens it would do the winning side well to note that the other side had sincerely held views that should be taken into account in terms of maybe not leaving too far if Leave win and not integrating any further should Remain win, assuming it is pretty close either way which looks likely ( further opinion polling disasters as a caveat).
Absolutely right. All this sturm und drang could have been avoided if europhiles (like NPXMP) hadn't been such a bunch of devious shits, and had given us a referendum earlier, as they so often promised to do.
We could have kicked the Lisbon Treaty into touch and the EU might have reformed in a more democratic manner.
Specifically what democratic reform do you think you'd have got by killing the Lisbon Treaty?
BTW - If the D-day landings had failed on June 6th it is still pretty likely the west would have taken at least France - remember that Rome was liberated on 5th June 1944. - and it took 2 1/2 months to Liberate Paris (25th August - which is my birthday (but not birth year)). Germany would also have been able to release some forces to the Eastern Front (at least for a while), as the Allies, recovered, trained and replaced the lost troops.
Worthwhile finding out about the D-day landings - especially fortitude North, Fortitude South, FUSAG etc.
D-Day is one of my specialist subjects.
I think failure after Dieppe might have impacted on things.
I think the allies would have cranked up the combined bomber offensive in the short term.
He was surprisingly good in his interview, I didn't realise he is so into politics
You are joking right? In 2020, it will be Eddie Izzard MP...
I rarely listen to any celebrity and take little notice of them, but he would make a good labour MP by the sounds of it
He's a bats**t crazy, champagne socialist who doesn't know the first thing about economics?
Check, check, check.
He's believed to want to stand for Mayor of London four years hence, should Khan decide for any reason (e.g. to become Prime Minister) to stand down. God help us!
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
Specifically what democratic reform do you think you'd have got by killing the Lisbon Treaty?
Not sure, but we should have got something tangible for all those vetoes we threw away in Lisbon.
If you're trying to make changes, you don't do it by preserving a veto on everything and anything by Luxembourg or Estonia.
Yes you do if you're trying to ensure that it is awkward to do anything and we are the squeeky wheel that needs more grease. That's precisely how we got the rebate. When was the last time Luxembourg was the squeeky wheel?
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
I shall be publishing a EURef poll at one minute past midnight.
I look forward to it.
In the meantime, would anyone like to tell me how much mining has gone on at this location (Parys Mountain on Anglesey) over the past 30 years under Anglesey Mining plc?
The answer is that on the UK operations of Anglesey Mining plc, they've never made any revenue on UK mining operations over the past 30 years ie no mining taking place here, because its a worthless piece of junk after copper mining in the past, and is believed to have toxic nuclear waste dumped there:
In fact the only profit Anglesey Mining plc has made over the past 30 years has been of asset disposals to mug investors, which you can check by going through the accounts over the years. In between times its mounted up large losses (1.7m in the year to March 2015, 7.1m to 2014, 31m to 2013) whilst the directors have been exercising their share options after having talked up the company share price and taking their annual fees, and is only kept going thanks to grants and rights issues promising future mining around the corner which surprise surprise never arises.
I for one would not be queueing up to invest in this company!
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
BTW - If the D-day landings had failed on June 6th it is still pretty likely the west would have taken at least France - remember that Rome was liberated on 5th June 1944. - and it took 2 1/2 months to Liberate Paris (25th August - which is my birthday (but not birth year)). Germany would also have been able to release some forces to the Eastern Front (at least for a while), as the Allies, recovered, trained and replaced the lost troops.
Worthwhile finding out about the D-day landings - especially fortitude North, Fortitude South, FUSAG etc.
What I don't get is Stalin insisting on a much earlier D-Day (say summer 1943). If that happened, wouldn't the Western Allies have reached Berlin first, and maybe even Warsaw?
No, the Allies would have been thrown back into the sea.
The German war economy, Luftwaffe and army simply wasn't damaged enough in Summer 1943, and the allied build-up of men and material simply wasn't there, to give an invasion a realistic chance of success.
It is extremely hard to fight a contested amphibious landing against an undefeated enemy, and succeed.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
We seemed to work pretty well for the 800 or so years that the country wasn't in the EU. Honestly if you believe that the UK will suddenly disintegrate or fall to pieces if we vote to leave then maybe you are better off in Hungary.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
Please, please do some canvassing for Remain or help out on a street stall.
Specifically what democratic reform do you think you'd have got by killing the Lisbon Treaty?
Not sure, but we should have got something tangible for all those vetoes we threw away in Lisbon.
If you're trying to make changes, you don't do it by preserving a veto on everything and anything by Luxembourg or Estonia.
Yes you do if you're trying to ensure that it is awkward to do anything and we are the squeeky wheel that needs more grease. That's precisely how we got the rebate. When was the last time Luxembourg was the squeeky wheel?
He was surprisingly good in his interview, I didn't realise he is so into politics
You are joking right? In 2020, it will be Eddie Izzard MP...
I rarely listen to any celebrity and take little notice of them, but he would make a good labour MP by the sounds of it
He's a bats**t crazy, champagne socialist who doesn't know the first thing about economics? Check, check, check.
What is it about people that label themselves as "BIG", that they are bats**t crazy, champagne socialists?
Hope you are not referring to me. I am a conservative who has been involved directly in GE campaigns in the 70, 80, 90 and 2010, though only joined the party this year to have a vote on DC succession
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
I am not a drug addled lunatic and am not expecting an economic shock. As I've said to you before.
I sincerely believe the UK has it within our wits to be a rip roaring success whether we stay or leave and that the greatest risk to that is Labour regaining power. I certainly do not regard failure to be a matter of "when" not "if".
BTW - If the D-day landings had failed on June 6th it is still pretty likely the west would have taken at least France - remember that Rome was liberated on 5th June 1944. - and it took 2 1/2 months to Liberate Paris (25th August - which is my birthday (but not birth year)). Germany would also have been able to release some forces to the Eastern Front (at least for a while), as the Allies, recovered, trained and replaced the lost troops.
Worthwhile finding out about the D-day landings - especially fortitude North, Fortitude South, FUSAG etc.
What I don't get is Stalin insisting on a much earlier D-Day (say summer 1943). If that happened, wouldn't the Western Allies have reached Berlin first, and maybe even Warsaw?
I think Stalin was quite worried about losing.
The Russians had suffered a severe defeat at Kharkov in Spring 1943. They weren't confident of victory till after Kursk.
Specifically what democratic reform do you think you'd have got by killing the Lisbon Treaty?
Not sure, but we should have got something tangible for all those vetoes we threw away in Lisbon.
If you're trying to make changes, you don't do it by preserving a veto on everything and anything by Luxembourg or Estonia.
Yes you do if you're trying to ensure that it is awkward to do anything and we are the squeeky wheel that needs more grease. That's precisely how we got the rebate. When was the last time Luxembourg was the squeeky wheel?
The answer was to give an annex to Lisbon that altered the EU with vetoes and unanimity in areas that affected both the eurozone and non-eurozone countries (i.e. a double majority, rather than QMV) and full opt-outs on justice, home affairs, human rights and defence/foreign affairs for the UK, qualifications on the powers of the CJEU, with some repatriations of powers to national parliaments and practical qualifications on free movement as well.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
I am not a drug addled lunatic and am not expecting an economic shock. As I've said to you before.
I sincerely believe the UK has it within our wits to be a rip roaring success whether we stay or leave and that the greatest risk to that is Labour regaining power. I certainly do not regard failure to be a matter of "when" not "if".
Alastair thinks all Leavers are lunatics.
You should know that by now.
Anyway, must sign-off for the night. Early start tomorrow.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
"Whether we could be successful outside the European Union is not the question" David Cameron October 2015.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
I'm suggesting that's 2-4% lost that needs to be recovered where Leave have no clear plan other than Leaving is the right thing to do. It's the act of honking cretins to volunteer for such a drop on ideological grounds.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
"Whether we could be successful outside the European Union is not the question" David Cameron October 2015.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
Indeed and those are rather gloomy, pessimistic projections by organisations opposing the change.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
This may surprise you, but I have thought about this long and properly. It's not my future I am deciding, it is the future of my older daughter Lucy.
I have to compare it to the future of her sister Ruby, in Sydney. Right now I see a much brighter future for Ruby. This is partly thanks to the stagnant, non-existent democracy of the EU.
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.
I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.
We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.
So does it really matter?
Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.
I think the problem is that there are a lot on the remain side, far more than the on the leave side at any rate, who are not very sincere about their desire to remain. Javid and Hammond are two that come to mind along with the careerist backbenchers who chose remain out of fear from Osborne promising fire and brimstone against any MP who backed leave. If leave does manage a win, I'm not sure that the remain side will be taken very seriously afterwards, mainly because so many on that side will simply switch allegiance and pretend they were truly in favour of leaving and blame the leadership for leading them astray.
Even that's making it overcomplicated. There is no need to be speaking about "led astray", if there is a Leave vote (even if it is just 50% + 1) then it is over. I would expect almost all Tory Leave MPs who are not Ken Clarke to unite behind a "the people have spoken" mantra. The party leader may or may not need to be changed but for all other MPs the remain/leave split will essentially vanish.
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky. June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken. After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
And when it doesn't work?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
Ouch! ..... Chocks away.
Wealthy out of touch laywers like Meeks and TSE!
I'm a working class Northerner.
"But it's not who you are underneath. It's what you do that defines you!" - Batman Begins.
I'm suggesting that's 2-4% lost that needs to be recovered where Leave have no clear plan other than Leaving is the right thing to do. It's the act of honking cretins to volunteer for such a drop on ideological grounds.
So no, we wouldn't be permanently stuck in a low or zero growth environment. That's all you needed to say. You would risk the existence of this nation state or a much larger future shock in order for stability today. That's a trade-off most people in the leave camp are not willing to make. You can't seem to understand that not everyone is as short-termist and self-centred as you are, yes leave may result in a short term GDP drop (and for me some level of lesser job security given the industry I work in) but it secures our future as a nation in the long term. Your outlook is more cretinous than ours, you would give up our long term future in order for some level of short term stability (not even a gain, just stability). It's quite surprising you are able to find the courage to walk out of your house in the morning given the state of fear you seem to live in.
Would anyone really notice if GDP in 2030 was 129% of it's current level, as opposed to 136%.
No but who can tell what it will be in 2030, that is where I agree that forward projections to 2030 have too many variables to forecast accurately
The treasury changes its forecasts between the Autumn Statement and the Budget - hence everyone with an ounce of common sense ignores any 'long range' forecasts - especially as they tend to have an asymptote of 2% p/a growth.
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Which is the perfect level of pressure we need to apply to the EU to get a good deal.
Oh goody. There's some of us really want a lower Pound and higher interest rates - seriously.
I honestly don't understand this obsession with the value of the pound.
We have a free-floating currency. It goes up, it goes down. It was mildly irritating when it sank close to parity with the euro in the 2008-2010 period, and I went to France for a mini-break and had to pay a few more cents for my croissant, but it also helped make our exports cheaper and our economy recover more quickly.
So does it really matter?
Some people see the value of sterling as a virility symbol.
How did the bridge go BTW
Badly yesterday but had a tremendous result today with a win against a team containing an English International . Made a 6NT contract when opps were 1 down in 6 Spades to a ruff which won it for us
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Not our problem, and if the EU can be blown so badly off course by Brexit then clearly the EU economy is built on sand. The BoE will extend QE by £50bn to ensure there are no failed Gilt sales in the short term, we'll soon find out that the world has kept turning and continue as before.
I'm suggesting that's 2-4% lost that needs to be recovered where Leave have no clear plan other than Leaving is the right thing to do. It's the act of honking cretins to volunteer for such a drop on ideological grounds.
So no, we wouldn't be permanently stuck in a low or zero growth environment. That's all you needed to say. You would risk the existence of this nation state or a much larger future shock in order for stability today. That's a trade-off most people in the leave camp are not willing to make. You can't seem to understand that not everyone is as short-termist and self-centred as you are, yes leave may result in a short term GDP drop (and for me some level of lesser job security given the industry I work in) but it secures our future as a nation in the long term. Your outlook is more cretinous than ours, you would give up our long term future in order for some level of short term stability (not even a gain, just stability). It's quite surprising you are able to find the courage to walk out of your house in the morning given the state of fear you seem to live in.
I don't see the existence of this nation at stake. I regard the rhetoric of Leavers as so ludicrously overblown as to be offensive rather than laughable and the active hostility to expert opinion to be the culmination of the dumbing down of public discourse that is exemplified by Big Brother. There is a rational case for Leave but as I expected it has been capsized by the fearful introverted xenophobic case.
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Not our problem, and if the EU can be blown so badly off course by Brexit then clearly the EU economy is built on sand. The BoE will extend QE by £50bn to ensure there are no failed Gilt sales in the short term, we'll soon find out that the world has kept turning and continue as before.
Not just the EU either, they're worrying about this in Japan.
I'm suggesting that's 2-4% lost that needs to be recovered where Leave have no clear plan other than Leaving is the right thing to do. It's the act of honking cretins to volunteer for such a drop on ideological grounds.
So no, we wouldn't be permanently stuck in a low or zero growth environment. That's all you needed to say. You would risk the existence of this nation state or a much larger future shock in order for stability today. That's a trade-off most people in the leave camp are not willing to make. You can't seem to understand that not everyone is as short-termist and self-centred as you are, yes leave may result in a short term GDP drop (and for me some level of lesser job security given the industry I work in) but it secures our future as a nation in the long term. Your outlook is more cretinous than ours, you would give up our long term future in order for some level of short term stability (not even a gain, just stability). It's quite surprising you are able to find the courage to walk out of your house in the morning given the state of fear you seem to live in.
I don't see the existence of this nation at stake. I regard the rhetoric of Leavers as so ludicrously overblown as to be offensive rather than laughable and the active hostility to expert opinion to be the culmination of the dumbing down of public discourse that is exemplified by Big Brother. There is a rational case for Leave but as I expected it has been capsized by the fearful introverted xenophobic case.
And yet the federalists in the EU are quite open about their ambition to create a single European state and full political union within the EU. You ignore them because they don't suit your agenda, you are allied to those who wish to subsume this nation into a super state, your remain vote gives them succour.
Where was I hostile to expert opinion? I used the 2-4% GDP drop as forecast by those very institutions who are against leaving.
The remain campaign is based on a lie, it is selling the public on an economic partnership when the EU is a political union hell bent on becoming a functioning state. There is a rational argument in favour of this country being a part of that process, it's just one which is toxic with the public. It's why the EUphile federalists have been told to shut up by the remain camp because their views are toxic and as part of that group, I think you can't bear the idea of a leave vote.
Comments
If you are a business whose costs are primarily in sterling but sales based on long term contracts are in foreign currencies you either have an enormous risk to currency swings or are forced to have major hedging exposure which a concomitant balance sheet issue. The entire aerospace industry, for example.
For the record I absolutely love Izzard's comedy. I think his observational style is just brilliant. He is also one of those I would consider the good guys on the Pro EU side. He is a strong believer in a federalist Europe and has made no secret of this. I may not agree with him but he is always absolutely honest about his views, whether popular or not.
Worthwhile finding out about the D-day landings - especially fortitude North, Fortitude South, FUSAG etc.
Dave's a bad man for criticising Boris and campaigning alongside the Greens and Labour.
But Boris is a top egg for criticising Dave whilst campaigning along side UKIP and Labour
I forget what happened next.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/05/momentum-leader-working-out-of-jeremy-corbyns-office/
Check, check, check.
https://twitter.com/andyparmo/status/590567719789015040
Oh well, joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth, more than over ninety and nine just persons, which need no repentance.
The lack of passion on the remain side is quite telling when it comes to judging sincerity, when people are left pitching staying as the least worst option or because they don't want the Tory party to possibly fall into the hands of IDS or something stupid like that then it's not exactly difficult to see why people don't believe them to be sincere in their belief that the EU is and should remain as part of our future. It's also quite telling that the true passionate EUphiles have been told to keep their mouths shut because their federalism argument is extremely toxic for remain, if the remain side gave even a hint that they are in favour of the UK becoming part of the European state then leave would seize on any comments and win the referendum with it.
Finally, on sincerity, the main argument that is being put across by the remain side is that we should avoid a possible 2-4 point GDP drop that may come with a leave vote, given that in 2008 we suffered a 7 point GDP drop and we're still here and still standing tall and still one of the strongest developed economies in the world the idea that leaving the EU and the 2-4 point GDP drop will cause our nation to become a third world backwater comes across as complete fantasy let alone having any kind of sincerity.
They look, sound like and probably are insincere, for the most part. Those who do sincerely believe in the EU are being kept quiet because the public have no appetite for any further integration.
Though the Brusilov offensive nearly exactly 100 years ago today was also an extraordinary feat of Generalship. Hard to believe how the Tsarist Russian forces would collapse just 6 months later. Reverses in war soon happen.
Rome
Raggi (5 Stars) 34-38%
Giochetti (PD) 20-24
Meloni (Right) 16-20
Marchino (Forza Italia) 9-13
Fassina (Left) 3-6
Milan
Sala (PD) 41-45
Parisi (Forza Italia & Lega) 35-39
5 Stars 8-12
Turin
Fassino (PD) 39-42
5 Stars 28-32
Right 7-11
Naples
De Magistris 43-47
Lettieri (Forza Italia) 20-24
Valente (PD) 15-19
I think failure after Dieppe might have impacted on things.
I think the allies would have cranked up the combined bomber offensive in the short term.
God help us!
Line of thought for a random Tory Remain MP
Today: Do you think we should leave? No, it's too risky.
June 24: Do you think we should leave? Yes, the people have spoken.
After we've left: Do you think we should agitate to rejoin the EU? No, we chose to leave and need to make that work.
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/01849957/filing-history
http://www.aditnow.co.uk/community/viewtopic.aspx?p=158447
In fact the only profit Anglesey Mining plc has made over the past 30 years has been of asset disposals to mug investors, which you can check by going through the accounts over the years. In between times its mounted up large losses (1.7m in the year to March 2015, 7.1m to 2014, 31m to 2013) whilst the directors have been exercising their share options after having talked up the company share price and taking their annual fees, and is only kept going thanks to grants and rights issues promising future mining around the corner which surprise surprise never arises.
I for one would not be queueing up to invest in this company!
The German war economy, Luftwaffe and army simply wasn't damaged enough in Summer 1943, and the allied build-up of men and material simply wasn't there, to give an invasion a realistic chance of success.
It is extremely hard to fight a contested amphibious landing against an undefeated enemy, and succeed.
I sincerely believe the UK has it within our wits to be a rip roaring success whether we stay or leave and that the greatest risk to that is Labour regaining power. I certainly do not regard failure to be a matter of "when" not "if".
But that ship has sailed.
'This is the baggage you have to deal with. I am transgender - it doesn't go away. But if I don't wear make-up for five years then it's my fucking life"
http://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2001/may/27/features.magazine27
You should know that by now.
Anyway, must sign-off for the night. Early start tomorrow.
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
Be LEAVE!
How did the bridge go BTW
"BRITAIN is facing a £2billion bill from the EU which has been kept hidden until after the referendum, it has been revealed."
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/677056/Cameron-PM-blasted-SECRET-2bn-EU-bill-REVEALED
I know the OECD think that net migration could go down...
John "30%" Major, no?
Where was I hostile to expert opinion? I used the 2-4% GDP drop as forecast by those very institutions who are against leaving.
The remain campaign is based on a lie, it is selling the public on an economic partnership when the EU is a political union hell bent on becoming a functioning state. There is a rational argument in favour of this country being a part of that process, it's just one which is toxic with the public. It's why the EUphile federalists have been told to shut up by the remain camp because their views are toxic and as part of that group, I think you can't bear the idea of a leave vote.