I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.
Had me going for a micro second but I looked at my clock.
Grief ..... Is that really the rubbish I've been staying up for, plus I'm sure this poll or something very similar, involving Telegraph readers appeared on PB earlier today.
Had me going for a micro second but I looked at my clock.
Grief ..... Is that really the rubbish I've been staying up for, plus I'm sure this poll or something very similar, involving Telegraph readers appeared on PB earlier today.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Sir John 'Received more votes as PM than any another PM/Party leader in history' Major
Then within 5 years squandered that good will shown to him by the electorate
Wasn't it the worst result since 1861 or something?
Since 1906.
Major an appalling Leader.
Heath and Cameron. One is a man who won one parliamentary majority, split his party, is exposed to have no political principles, is a europhile and desperately hangs onto a european economic system because his civil servants tell him it is a good idea. The other chap likes yachts and conducting.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
The Tories still led/tied in some ICM polls after Black Wednesday.
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
Next you're going to start claiming we were right to join the ERM?
BTW, did you get to Tooting? I'm (quite literally) laid up with a bad back so won't make it. Truly saddened!
We should never have the same interest rates (or the same currency) as our continental cousins.
I was meant to go this forthcoming week, but our Brexit contingency planning has a put a nix to that.
Stockpiling the bunker?
Making plans for opening up a Paris office/subsidiary.
Sky Press Review has a Telegraph headline along the lines of Cameron Joins The Left.
I mentioned it down below, the Telegraph have lost their marbles.
Boris campaigning for Leave alongside Labour and UKIP people is good
Dave campaigning for Remain alongside Labour and Green people is bad.
Dave in December reckoned we could "do OK" outside the EU.
As a true British patriot, my aspiration for this country is doing better than OK. Remain = The true patriotic option Leave = The refuge of the EDL, Neo Nazis, and the BNP
You desperate for clickbait to get the traffic numbers up for OGH while he is away?
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.
Thanks. I am genuinely puzzled as to why the Leave campaign is failing to cite the balance of payments with the EU in order to counter the economic claims of the Remain camp.
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.
Thanks. I am genuinely puzzled as to why the Leave campaign is failing to cite the balance of payments with the EU in order to counter the economic claims of the Remain camp.
Because they're shit. Thanks for an excellent economic summation.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Sir John 'Received more votes as PM than any another PM/Party leader in history' Major
Then within 5 years squandered that good will shown to him by the electorate
Wasn't it the worst result since 1861 or something?
Since 1906.
Major an appalling Leader.
Heath and Cameron. One is a man who won one parliamentary majority, split his party, is exposed to have no political principles, is a europhile and desperately hangs onto a european economic system because his civil servants tell him it is a good idea. The other chap likes yachts and conducting.
Yes, and lets not go into his nefarious private life or the dubious aspects of Morning Cloud.
The reason I will vote for exit is this - http://electrek.co/2016/06/02/tesla-model-3-fully-autonomous-elon-musk/?preview_id=17536 . If we want any part of new industries the government must take a part, and we are being locked out of the future by the EU because we cannot make any strategic investments. The remainers advance their personal financial status over the us, I don't care about people with apartments in France or Italy. I couldn't care less about holidays in Europe for the middle class. The middle class has become a parasite.
Governments picking winners, and you lock out actual entrepreneurs like Elon Musk because they're immigrants. This would prove less of a winning formula than you're imagining.
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.
Thanks. I am genuinely puzzled as to why the Leave campaign is failing to cite the balance of payments with the EU in order to counter the economic claims of the Remain camp.
If we take Gove at his word, then he should do so this week.
Sala (PD) 41-45 Parisi (Forza Italia & Lega) 35-39 5 Stars 8-12
Turin
Fassino (PD) 39-42 5 Stars 28-32 Right 7-11
Naples
De Magistris 43-47 Lettieri (Forza Italia) 20-24 Valente (PD) 15-19
How does this compare with expectations, Andrea?
Are we supposed to know who or what these parties are and what they stand for?
Well, Andrea will correct me but my understanding is:
PD is the Government - centre-left, mainstream former communists plus centrists, led by Renzi (charismatic young Blairite) Forza is Berlusconi - centre-right and primarily a vehicle for him 5 stars is Beppo - the populists, kick the rascals out. No very stable political position The Left are those former communists and others who didn't fancy moving to the centre de Magistris is an independent former prosecutor.
Well done Nick...good summary.
One thing that I never thought I'd say though is that come June 24th the Italian Political system may well seem to be much more stable and coherent than our own.
Andrea might not like to hear this, but Renzi is class. After Merkel, the standout political leader in Europe and someone who hopefully will lead Italy for some time to come.
I am very pleased though that Raggi, 5 Star, has taken Rome. I like her very much.
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.
Thanks. I am genuinely puzzled as to why the Leave campaign is failing to cite the balance of payments with the EU in order to counter the economic claims of the Remain camp.
Because they're shit. Thanks for an excellent economic summation.
I have also cited the relative duty charges of the UK and EU under WTO rules.
I heard Michael Gove saying he would get immigration down to the tens of thousands. Hostage to fortune there, thought he would have learnt from DC
If there is the political will and we are outside of the EU he could.
We had 330,000 last year and 5% unemployment. Immigration will never be in tens of thousands unless our economy collapses
No. You can simply tell people they can't come in. It means that there will be more competition for employees and so wages will rise.
IIUC these are net migration numbers, so to be confident of keeping them at those levels you have to ban British people from returning and/or require British people to leave.
A shitty economy would accomplish this naturally, though.
Sky Press Review has a Telegraph headline along the lines of Cameron Joins The Left.
I mentioned it down below, the Telegraph have lost their marbles.
Boris campaigning for Leave alongside Labour and UKIP people is good
Dave campaigning for Remain alongside Labour and Green people is bad.
Dave in December reckoned we could "do OK" outside the EU.
S Leave = The refuge of the EDL, Neo Nazis, and the BNP
I hope that's a joke TSE, otherwise you have demeaned yourself.
Not a bad thread though this time, albeit a tad bizarre re the cinema sequel.
So TSE you think only racists are concerned about democracy freedom and immigration and an unelected eu elite. Just because this is a free country and even the extremists can tag onto leave or remain doesn't mean the cause is unreasonable. You do demean yourself by such comments
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.
The problem is not Bosch and VW but the service industries which will become overloaded with regulation.
Since our previous poll, changes have been made to the past political weighting and the EU referendum voting intentions are now turnout adjusted. Further details are included in the methodological note which prefaces the data tables
EU refernedum poll: Remain: 41% (-) Leave: 45% (+4) (via YouGov) Chgs. from 30 - 31 May.
OK that's big.
LEAVE is now clearly leading.
There will be crossover in the next poll of polls.
What are the chances of this? I doubt this is on the REMAINIACS grid.
lol
Can we have a yet another pb threader on the total shitness of the LEAVE campaign? Thanks. It will help any of us who want to bet, when we know to bet entirely the other way.
I've a thread in the pipeline suggesting more reasons why Remain are losing - was worried it might be overtaken by events but looks like it might yet be timely.
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.
You left it late Phil, but from an easily comprehensible economic point of view, that must rate as post of the day.
The problem is not Bosch and VW but the service industries which will become overloaded with regulation.
Before you all get over excited by that YouGov, the fieldwork dates haven't been confirmed, and the last YouGov/GMB poll was fairly old by the time it came out.
I think that horse has bolted TSE! We're pretty damn excited.
Before you all get over excited by that YouGov, the fieldwork dates haven't been confirmed, and the last YouGov/GMB poll was fairly old by the time it came out.
I'm guessing a lot of comments tomorrow are going to suggest that Remain need to go harder on the economic argument. Yawn.
Poor strategy and poor execution by Remain is leading to poll leads for Leave. This might just happen.
It explains Major being wheeled out to be rude. Name calling is all they've got left.
Up to a week or so ago they were using the machinery of government to come up with a series of spurious official "studies" making the Remain case and dominating the news agenda as each one was issued in succession on a daily basis. Now we're in the official campaign period they can't do that and the playing field has been levelled.
The change just happens to coincide with the resurgence of Leave in the polls.
Have you not got a threader on how SHIT the LEAVE campaign is, to console yourself? You ran seventeen fucking thousand of them earlier in the month, despite some of us telling you this was bollocks?
Surely there's one left? No? Just one? Maybe an earnest nine hundred page analysis by Alistair Meeks? No? Really? Nothing?
What a farce you have made of this site. A BETTING site. And we warned you, time and again.
Haha Sean. Come off the fence please?
Spot on though. This site is crap sometimes.* It got GE2015 utterly wrong, thanks to the thread writers' refusal to remove their blinkers. You'd think they'd have learned some humility but, nope, the same old one-sided garbage thread after thread despite clearly and evidentially flying in the face of public opinion (and the majority of punters on here).
* Cue kindergarten response of: if you don't like it then leave nah nah nah nah
Peter Kellner - based on these figures from your own polling company, do you still believe that "REMAIN are probably still ahead .... just" ??
Mind you it was about this time in indyref yougov had Yes ahead, still a fortnight to go and the main change is some undecideds have shifted to Leave while Remain is unchanged, where the rest of the undecideds go will be pivotal. Goodnight
I know I'm actually starting to feel we could win this now. I know peope said this in Scotland but the union of the U.K is about the heart aswell as the head the E.U is only about your head.
Comments
Smiley thing.
Turin (9%): PD 41.8 5 Stars 31.7
Ravenna (6.5%): PD 42.3 Right 28.3
Varese (5%): Right 46.2 PD 42.9
Boris campaigning for Leave alongside Labour and UKIP people is good
Dave campaigning for Remain alongside Labour and Green people is bad.
Heath and Cameron. One is a man who won one parliamentary majority, split his party, is exposed to have no political principles, is a europhile and desperately hangs onto a european economic system because his civil servants tell him it is a good idea. The other chap likes yachts and conducting.
Remain = The true patriotic option
Leave = The refuge of the EDL, Neo Nazis, and the BNP
Julia HB on Sky now as you say.
http://www.unita.tv/opinioni/a-destra-tutti-pazzi-per-valeria-raggi/
Not a bad thread though this time, albeit a tad bizarre re the cinema sequel.
I think the midnight polls will show a LEAVE lead. Yesterday's ORB showed a swing to LEAVE on the old methodology.
A shitty economy would accomplish this naturally, though.
Remain 41 (+3) Leave 43 (+2) DKs 16 (-5)
Fieldwork ended a fortnight ago. FW dates: 19/5 to 23/5
Remain: 41% (-)
Leave: 45% (+4)
(via YouGov)
Chgs. from 30 - 31 May.
There I said it just to please our European neighbours.
What a damp squib.
Leave 45 Remain 41 - Am still waiting for the fieldwork dates on that one
GBPUSD down 20 ticks in the last few minutes
Remain 41 -1
Leave 45 +6
The Leave momentum is not just a one-off blip. That's a week's worth now.
Poor strategy and poor execution by Remain is leading to poll leads for Leave. This might just happen.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/739594114115702784
Since our previous poll, changes have been made to the past political weighting and the EU referendum voting intentions are now turnout adjusted. Further details are included in the methodological note which prefaces the data tables
I may have mentioned it.
Remain out from 1.39 to 1.44 in the last 10 minutes.
Leave in from 3.5 to 3.2.
*shudders*
...business class?
Need to catch some sleep.
Good night all. Good night remain apologists. Vote LEAVE.
The change just happens to coincide with the resurgence of Leave in the polls.
Spot on though. This site is crap sometimes.* It got GE2015 utterly wrong, thanks to the thread writers' refusal to remove their blinkers. You'd think they'd have learned some humility but, nope, the same old one-sided garbage thread after thread despite clearly and evidentially flying in the face of public opinion (and the majority of punters on here).
* Cue kindergarten response of: if you don't like it then leave nah nah nah nah
Think someone is doing Wisdom polls on EU as well as normal voting intention.
Wisdom is key - to what extent are changes in voting intention feeding through into the Wisdom?
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