The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Not our problem, and if the EU can be blown so badly off course by Brexit then clearly the EU economy is built on sand. The BoE will extend QE by £50bn to ensure there are no failed Gilt sales in the short term, we'll soon find out that the world has kept turning and continue as before.
Not just the EU either, they're worrying about this in Japan.
Well we know the Japanese economy is built on sand.
Ted Heath saying that the real divide is between those who want to stay with the nation state and those who want to move beyond it.
Except he was talking bollocks whilst lying through his teeth.
He was telling us that the UK as a nation state was over. It was just that few people listened to what exactly he was saying. "the real divide is between those who want to stay with the nation state and those who want to move beyond it"
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Which is the perfect level of pressure we need to apply to the EU to get a good deal.
But we will have left and they will be in no mood to help UK, certainly in the short term
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Sir John 'Received more votes as PM than any another PM/Party leader in history' Major
and then led the party into one of its biggest electoral disasters.
Major is not in the same league as Thatcher or Cameron or Macmillan or Baldwin as election winning Tory leaders but his record, won 1 lost 1, is rather better than that of Hague, Howard or IDS, Home or indeed Heath
@JeremyWarnerUK: Sorry, but bureaucratically administered points system likely to be much worse at answering economic needs than free movement of 500m people
@JeremyWarnerUK: Sorry, but bureaucratically administered points system likely to be much worse at answering economic needs than free movement of 500m people
especially for Tories
He's one of the Deputy Editors of The Telegraph isn't he?
I wonder if TSE and Mr Meeks could please answer a couple of questions. 1. Do you believe that the EU is in the process of turning itself into a federal state? 2. Do you believe that the UK should be part of a federal state of Europe in your lifetime's?
Heath: This is not only about giving up control of sovereignty. This is about gaining control over the sovereignty of 8 other countries. Does anyone believe that if in 1914 we'd have had control over the sovereignty of those countries we'd have had conflict?
@JeremyWarnerUK: Sorry, but bureaucratically administered points system likely to be much worse at answering economic needs than free movement of 500m people
especially for Tories
True. But only those who know the price of everything and the value of nothing place economics above all else
Hypothetical question: suppose that we vote Brexit by 51% and the result really is bad - severe depression, endless negotiations, soaring inflation, deadlocked Parliament, etc. Do we think that the 51% will then:
a) blame the Government? b) blame Europe? c) blame themselves?
And if polls then show a marked degree of buyer's remorse, how far would they have to go before a new referendum became a politically viable proposition?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Which is the perfect level of pressure we need to apply to the EU to get a good deal.
But we will have left and they will be in no mood to help UK, certainly in the short term
I don't know, recessions tend to concentrate minds.
Hypothetical question: suppose that we vote Brexit by 51% and the result really is bad - severe depression, endless negotiations, soaring inflation, deadlocked Parliament, etc. Do we think that the 51% will then:
a) blame the Government? b) blame Europe? c) blame themselves?
And if polls then show a marked degree of buyer's remorse, how far would they have to go before a new referendum became a politically viable proposition?
History has shown voters never blame themselves, but the politicians that got them into this mess.
@JeremyWarnerUK: Sorry, but bureaucratically administered points system likely to be much worse at answering economic needs than free movement of 500m people
especially for Tories
He's one of the Deputy Editors of The Telegraph isn't he?
Hypothetical question: suppose that we vote Brexit by 51% and the result really is bad - severe depression, endless negotiations, soaring inflation, deadlocked Parliament, etc. Do we think that the 51% will then:
a) blame the Government? b) blame Europe? c) blame themselves?
And if polls then show a marked degree of buyer's remorse, how far would they have to go before a new referendum became a politically viable proposition?
Simple, blame the Govt. They can then vote in people that they prefer to run things. It is called democracy, something the EU is short of.
@JeremyWarnerUK: Sorry, but bureaucratically administered points system likely to be much worse at answering economic needs than free movement of 500m people
especially for Tories
Yes, it is odd that people who believe utterly in the Chicago school of price signals and perfect information in markets, object to the idea of free movement of people, but not capital.
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Which is the perfect level of pressure we need to apply to the EU to get a good deal.
But we will have left and they will be in no mood to help UK, certainly in the short term
They need our £8.5 billion net contributions, remember?
pretty much as expected in Rome, Milan and Naples. I expected PD lead to be higher in Turin though. If it is less than 10% the run off will be competitive.
Absolutely nothing is suddenly going to happen on 24 June as regards our trading relationships with other EU countries, nor indeed with any other country or trading block in the World ..... in fact not for many months and probably several years thereafter, always assuming that we actually ever leave. So calm down everyone, it's only a referendum. And with those thoughts, goodnight.
Hypothetical question: suppose that we vote Brexit by 51% and the result really is bad - severe depression, endless negotiations, soaring inflation, deadlocked Parliament, etc. Do we think that the 51% will then:
a) blame the Government? b) blame Europe? c) blame themselves?
And if polls then show a marked degree of buyer's remorse, how far would they have to go before a new referendum became a politically viable proposition?
I will be buying 'I voted remain, don't blame me' car sticker. Goodness only knows what will happen to the leading Brexit politicians
Heath: This is not only about giving up control of sovereignty. This is about gaining control over the sovereignty of 8 other countries. Does anyone believe that if in 1914 we'd have had control over the sovereignty of those countries we'd have had conflict?
Given the state of European power politics in 1914, probably yes.
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Which is the perfect level of pressure we need to apply to the EU to get a good deal.
But we will have left and they will be in no mood to help UK, certainly in the short term
Really? So if they don't get a deal (to sell to the UK) they're royally f*cked, but will have no incentive not to royally f*ck themselves?
Are you serious? They will have every incentive to go for a deal.
BTW - If the D-day landings had failed on June 6th it is still pretty likely the west would have taken at least France - remember that Rome was liberated on 5th June 1944. - and it took 2 1/2 months to Liberate Paris (25th August - which is my birthday (but not birth year)). Germany would also have been able to release some forces to the Eastern Front (at least for a while), as the Allies, recovered, trained and replaced the lost troops.
Worthwhile finding out about the D-day landings - especially fortitude North, Fortitude South, FUSAG etc.
What I don't get is Stalin insisting on a much earlier D-Day (say summer 1943). If that happened, wouldn't the Western Allies have reached Berlin first, and maybe even Warsaw?
He was really insisting on a second front much earlier - mid 1942 - hence the debacle at Dieppe. The Germans were still very much on the offensive until late 42 and even into 1943, although they had been driven back they were still inflicting defeats on Russia.
Absolutely nothing is suddenly going to happen on 24 June as regards our trading relationships with other EU countries, nor indeed with any other country or trading block in the World ..... in fact not for many months and probably several years thereafter, always assuming that we actually ever leave. So calm down everyone, it's only a referendum. And with those thoughts, goodnight.
@JeremyWarnerUK: Sorry, but bureaucratically administered points system likely to be much worse at answering economic needs than free movement of 500m people
especially for Tories
It isn't just about economic needs, and in any case, I don't agree with him on that either.
Hypothetical question: suppose that we vote Brexit by 51% and the result really is bad - severe depression, endless negotiations, soaring inflation, deadlocked Parliament, etc. Do we think that the 51% will then:
a) blame the Government? b) blame Europe? c) blame themselves?
And if polls then show a marked degree of buyer's remorse, how far would they have to go before a new referendum became a politically viable proposition?
Simple, blame the Govt. They can then vote in people that they prefer to run things. It is called democracy, something the EU is short of.
Indeed.
It would take spectacular incompetence not to cope and adapt after some initial turbulence.
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Which is the perfect level of pressure we need to apply to the EU to get a good deal.
But we will have left and they will be in no mood to help UK, certainly in the short term
Really? So if they don't get a deal (to sell to the UK) they're royally f*cked, but will have no incentive not to royally f*ck themselves?
Are you serious? They will have every incentive to go for a deal.
Not at any price - contributions and free movement will be demanded
Heath: This is not only about giving up control of sovereignty. This is about gaining control over the sovereignty of 8 other countries. Does anyone believe that if in 1914 we'd have had control over the sovereignty of those countries we'd have had conflict?
Ted Heath saying that the real divide is between those who want to stay with the nation state and those who want to move beyond it.
Except he was talking bollocks whilst lying through his teeth.
He was telling us that the UK as a nation state was over. It was just that few people listened to what exactly he was saying. "the real divide is between those who want to stay with the nation state and those who want to move beyond it"
It does rather belie the repeated claims that there was a conspiracy of silence about the true nature of the European project.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Hypothetical question: suppose that we vote Brexit by 51% and the result really is bad - severe depression, endless negotiations, soaring inflation, deadlocked Parliament, etc. Do we think that the 51% will then:
a) blame the Government? b) blame Europe? c) blame themselves?
And if polls then show a marked degree of buyer's remorse, how far would they have to go before a new referendum became a politically viable proposition?
I think you'd need a general election in between where the pro-Brexit-led government got hammered, and not by UKIP. The problem with this scenario, apart from the timing, is that the current Labour leader doesn't look like the ideal person to deliver such a hammering, and if Labour isn't going to do it then who is?
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Which is the perfect level of pressure we need to apply to the EU to get a good deal.
But we will have left and they will be in no mood to help UK, certainly in the short term
Really? So if they don't get a deal (to sell to the UK) they're royally f*cked, but will have no incentive not to royally f*ck themselves?
Are you serious? They will have every incentive to go for a deal.
Not at any price - contributions and free movement will be demanded
Well, they're f*cked then. We'll buy Greece and Italy in the liquidation sale.
Hypothetical question: suppose that we vote Brexit by 51% and the result really is bad - severe depression, endless negotiations, soaring inflation, deadlocked Parliament, etc. Do we think that the 51% will then:
a) blame the Government? b) blame Europe? c) blame themselves?
And if polls then show a marked degree of buyer's remorse, how far would they have to go before a new referendum became a politically viable proposition?
I will be buying 'I voted remain, don't blame me' car sticker. Goodness only knows what will happen to the leading Brexit politicians
Boris and co will spin it that it is those wiley Europeans who are to blame for dragging out negotiations. Farage will have a new cause: we shouldn't even negotiate, just pull out of everything and send no money. Cameron and Osborne will be laughing their socks off at their new HQ in Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan.
Ted Heath saying that the real divide is between those who want to stay with the nation state and those who want to move beyond it.
Except he was talking bollocks whilst lying through his teeth.
He was telling us that the UK as a nation state was over. It was just that few people listened to what exactly he was saying. "the real divide is between those who want to stay with the nation state and those who want to move beyond it"
It does rather belie the repeated claims that there was a conspiracy of silence about the true nature of the European project.
There was, he went on TV to say there would be no loss of sovereignty.
Hypothetical question: suppose that we vote Brexit by 51% and the result really is bad - severe depression, endless negotiations, soaring inflation, deadlocked Parliament, etc. Do we think that the 51% will then:
a) blame the Government? b) blame Europe? c) blame themselves?
And if polls then show a marked degree of buyer's remorse, how far would they have to go before a new referendum became a politically viable proposition?
As we now know we'll still be pushing around the endless paperwork by 2020, a party could stand on an 'abandon Brexit' ticket and win by a landslide?
Absolutely nothing is suddenly going to happen on 24 June as regards our trading relationships with other EU countries, nor indeed with any other country or trading block in the World ..... in fact not for many months and probably several years thereafter, always assuming that we actually ever leave. So calm down everyone, it's only a referendum. And with those thoughts, goodnight.
Wouldn't it have been better if you had ended that post with 'and on that bombshell'?
Sala (PD) 41-45 Parisi (Forza Italia & Lega) 35-39 5 Stars 8-12
Turin
Fassino (PD) 39-42 5 Stars 28-32 Right 7-11
Naples
De Magistris 43-47 Lettieri (Forza Italia) 20-24 Valente (PD) 15-19
How does this compare with expectations, Andrea?
Are we supposed to know who or what these parties are and what they stand for?
Well, Andrea will correct me but my understanding is:
PD is the Government - centre-left, mainstream former communists plus centrists, led by Renzi (charismatic young Blairite) Forza is Berlusconi - centre-right and primarily a vehicle for him 5 stars is Beppo - the populists, kick the rascals out. No very stable political position The Left are those former communists and others who didn't fancy moving to the centre de Magistris is an independent former prosecutor.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
My vote for John Major's Conservatives in the 1997 GE remains to this day the only genuinely enthusiastic vote that I've ever cast in any of the elections in which I've voted. Obviously I'm rare in that - but it's true.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Nope he lost in 1997 because as chancellor he had insisted on the UK joining the ERM. It is a delicious irony that he was then PM when that came back to destroy him and the Tory party reputation for economic stability. He got all he deserved and has no one else to blame but himself for his idiocy.
Be interesting if one says leave and the other remain.
I imagine that is why the odds have not moved much.
Well in the past good polls for Leave have seen no movement on Betfair.
Is it as simple as most market participants are in bed?
Especially as we weren't expecting a poll tonight, let alone two. Their midnight release times suggest that both are set to feature in tomorrow's morning newspapers.
I am retired and owning my own house, having a good pension and savings staying or leaving will make no difference to me, except possibly leaving might make the NHS worse. Could mean replacing young Poles etc whose main use is maternity with ageing ex pats coming home making greater demands on the NHS. I have no faith the Leavers like Hannan, would invest more in it.
I will be voting Remain for my kids future. My son although based in London, spends much of his time in France. There is a real danger his company will move out of the UK if the vote is Leave. Difficult for him to move. Similarly my daughter sees more openings with us in the EU.
Freedom of Movement brings opportunities for young people as well as threats. As an aside went into Subway today. All the staff were Eastern European, the Manager told me they can't recruit local people apart from part time A level students.
Sala (PD) 41-45 Parisi (Forza Italia & Lega) 35-39 5 Stars 8-12
Turin
Fassino (PD) 39-42 5 Stars 28-32 Right 7-11
Naples
De Magistris 43-47 Lettieri (Forza Italia) 20-24 Valente (PD) 15-19
How does this compare with expectations, Andrea?
Are we supposed to know who or what these parties are and what they stand for?
Well, Andrea will correct me but my understanding is:
PD is the Government - centre-left, mainstream former communists plus centrists, led by Renzi (charismatic young Blairite) Forza is Berlusconi - centre-right and primarily a vehicle for him 5 stars is Beppo - the populists, kick the rascals out. No very stable political position The Left are those former communists and others who didn't fancy moving to the centre de Magistris is an independent former prosecutor.
Sala (PD) 41-45 Parisi (Forza Italia & Lega) 35-39 5 Stars 8-12
Turin
Fassino (PD) 39-42 5 Stars 28-32 Right 7-11
Naples
De Magistris 43-47 Lettieri (Forza Italia) 20-24 Valente (PD) 15-19
How does this compare with expectations, Andrea?
Are we supposed to know who or what these parties are and what they stand for?
Seriously, Peter. If you are remotely bothered to take some interest in one of Europe's most prominent countries you might well know. You come across as some kind of caricature of the worst kind of narrow minded little Englander.....
"Who are these bloody foreigners......?"
5 star is Grillos Populist, anti political group- a cross between Corbyn and UKIP- very hard to define politically
PD is the very centre left now Forza Italia is Berlusconi's centre right party Right and Left speak for themselves
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
The Tories still led/tied in some ICM polls after Black Wednesday.
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
Hypothetical question: suppose that we vote Brexit by 51% and the result really is bad - severe depression, endless negotiations, soaring inflation, deadlocked Parliament, etc. Do we think that the 51% will then:
a) blame the Government? b) blame Europe? c) blame themselves?
And if polls then show a marked degree of buyer's remorse, how far would they have to go before a new referendum became a politically viable proposition?
As we now know we'll still be pushing around the endless paperwork by 2020
@JeremyWarnerUK: Sorry, but bureaucratically administered points system likely to be much worse at answering economic needs than free movement of 500m people
especially for Tories
True. But only those who know the price of everything and the value of nothing place economics above all else
I've booked some tickets to see them live this Friday in Florence. We saw James Bay last Friday, but I couldn't even hear him because I was surrounded by screaming Italian girls.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
The Tories still led/tied in some ICM polls after Black Wednesday.
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
Next you're going to start claiming we were right to join the ERM?
BTW, did you get to Tooting? I'm (quite literally) laid up with a bad back so won't make it. Truly saddened!
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
My vote for John Major's Conservatives in the 1997 GE remains to this day the only genuinely enthusiastic vote that I've ever cast in any of the elections in which I've voted. Obviously I'm rare in that - but it's true.
Never mind, judging by your dramatic recent shift towards Labour, maybe you'll be a Corbyn enthusiast by 2020 ..... iirc you've almost said as much yourself.
I've booked some tickets to see them live this Friday in Florence. We saw James Bay last Friday, but I couldn't even hear him because I was surrounded by screaming Italian girls.
Hope for a repeat - screaming Italian girls would enhance this broadcast.
I've booked some tickets to see them live this Friday in Florence. We saw James Bay last Friday, but I couldn't even hear him because I was surrounded by screaming Italian girls.
I never realised you had such an adoring fan club Tyson.
Do you sincerely believe the UK couldn't "work" outside the EU?
I mean, I know you're an overpaid twit, but.... really?
Do you sincerely believe that there will be immediate unanimous agreement that it has been a rip roaring success, especially given that anyone who isn't a drug-addled lunatic is expecting an economic shock?
2-4% is the consensus, most City institution, the IMF, and even the Treasury come into this range. In 2008 we lost 7% of our GDP in a manner which made it very hard to recover given regulatory changes have made it tougher for banks to bring home mega profits and pay mega bonuses of the like we saw in the previous boom. Are you really suggesting that we wouldn't recover from that drop and that the UK would be permanently stuck in low or zero growth?
Also, remember that to lose more than 4% of GDP we would have to lose more than a third of all exports to the EU. The idea that we would even lose a third is far fetched.
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Which is the perfect level of pressure we need to apply to the EU to get a good deal.
But we will have left and they will be in no mood to help UK, certainly in the short term
Really? So if they don't get a deal (to sell to the UK) they're royally f*cked, but will have no incentive not to royally f*ck themselves?
Are you serious? They will have every incentive to go for a deal.
Not at any price - contributions and free movement will be demanded
Well, they're f*cked then. We'll buy Greece and Italy in the liquidation sale.
It is wholly unrealistic to expect the same deal with the EU as we have, there are 27 Countries many of whom will be in an uncompromising mood and at best a Norway style arrangement offered. To me the sad thing is that if leave had gone openly for this option I would have voted leave, but they didn't and I didn't
I'm now firmly in the leave camp, and, I suppose, averagely patriotic in a faintly apologetic middle class way, but I'm really not sure patriotism is the button to press. I can't see it changing ant minds, and it makes Leave look weird. Anecdotally, I'm on a long weekend away with my extended family. They're not nearly so firmly Remain as I'd expected. OTOH, the keenest leaver began the discussion of the referendum with 'If I could be bothered to vote, which I can't, because I'm lazy, I' definitely be voting leave'. So maybe not unqualified good news for the outers.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
The Tories still led/tied in some ICM polls after Black Wednesday.
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
Next you're going to start claiming we were right to join the ERM?
BTW, did you get to Tooting? I'm (quite literally) laid up with a bad back so won't make it. Truly saddened!
We should never have the same interest rates (or the same currency) as our continental cousins.
I was meant to go this forthcoming week, but our Brexit contingency planning has a put a nix to that.
Sala (PD) 41-45 Parisi (Forza Italia & Lega) 35-39 5 Stars 8-12
Turin
Fassino (PD) 39-42 5 Stars 28-32 Right 7-11
Naples
De Magistris 43-47 Lettieri (Forza Italia) 20-24 Valente (PD) 15-19
How does this compare with expectations, Andrea?
Are we supposed to know who or what these parties are and what they stand for?
Well, Andrea will correct me but my understanding is:
PD is the Government - centre-left, mainstream former communists plus centrists, led by Renzi (charismatic young Blairite) Forza is Berlusconi - centre-right and primarily a vehicle for him 5 stars is Beppo - the populists, kick the rascals out. No very stable political position The Left are those former communists and others who didn't fancy moving to the centre de Magistris is an independent former prosecutor.
Well done Nick...good summary.
One thing that I never thought I'd say though is that come June 24th the Italian Political system may well seem to be much more stable and coherent than our own.
Andrea might not like to hear this, but Renzi is class. After Merkel, the standout political leader in Europe and someone who hopefully will lead Italy for some time to come.
I am very pleased though that Raggi, 5 Star, has taken Rome. I like her very much.
I will be buying 'I voted remain, don't blame me' car sticker. Goodness only knows what will happen to the leading Brexit politicians
No harking back to the glorious days of ostentatiously pretending to be on the fence about the whole issue then?
I was very uncertain for a long time, as was my wife, but I declared for remain some time ago and both postal votes have now been completed and sent in
The shock will not be confined to the UK, Europe and Worldwide will be drawn into this. I see the BOE are already planning emergency measures for the 24th June and no doubt so are the rest of the World's financiers
Which is the perfect level of pressure we need to apply to the EU to get a good deal.
But we will have left and they will be in no mood to help UK, certainly in the short term
Really? So if they don't get a deal (to sell to the UK) they're royally f*cked, but will have no incentive not to royally f*ck themselves?
Are you serious? They will have every incentive to go for a deal.
Not at any price - contributions and free movement will be demanded
Well, they're f*cked then. We'll buy Greece and Italy in the liquidation sale.
It is wholly unrealistic to expect the same deal with the EU as we have, there are 27 Countries many of whom will be in an uncompromising mood and at best a Norway style arrangement offered. To me the sad thing is that if leave had gone openly for this option I would have voted leave, but they didn't and I didn't
They don't get free movement. The choice is then theirs as to whether they opt for recession or otherwise.
We tried for compromise, they chose not to. It would be unrealistic to expect us to, having voted out, after have had serious goes at reform not to actually leave. The problem is that they didn't pick this up in the negotiations. It wouldn't have been difficult. They could have kept an eye on how unpopular the EU is and not just in the UK.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
The Tories still led/tied in some ICM polls after Black Wednesday.
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
Next you're going to start claiming we were right to join the ERM?
BTW, did you get to Tooting? I'm (quite literally) laid up with a bad back so won't make it. Truly saddened!
We should never have the same interest rates (or the same currency) as our continental cousins.
I was meant to go this forthcoming week, but our Brexit contingency planning has a put a nix to that.
Sala (PD) 41-45 Parisi (Forza Italia & Lega) 35-39 5 Stars 8-12
Turin
Fassino (PD) 39-42 5 Stars 28-32 Right 7-11
Naples
De Magistris 43-47 Lettieri (Forza Italia) 20-24 Valente (PD) 15-19
How does this compare with expectations, Andrea?
Are we supposed to know who or what these parties are and what they stand for?
Well, Andrea will correct me but my understanding is:
PD is the Government - centre-left, mainstream former communists plus centrists, led by Renzi (charismatic young Blairite) Forza is Berlusconi - centre-right and primarily a vehicle for him 5 stars is Beppo - the populists, kick the rascals out. No very stable political position The Left are those former communists and others who didn't fancy moving to the centre de Magistris is an independent former prosecutor.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
The Tories still led/tied in some ICM polls after Black Wednesday.
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
Next you're going to start claiming we were right to join the ERM?
BTW, did you get to Tooting? I'm (quite literally) laid up with a bad back so won't make it. Truly saddened!
We should never have the same interest rates (or the same currency) as our continental cousins.
I was meant to go this forthcoming week, but our Brexit contingency planning has a put a nix to that.
Stockpiling the bunker?
Making plans for opening up a Paris office/subsidiary.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
The Tories still led/tied in some ICM polls after Black Wednesday.
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
Next you're going to start claiming we were right to join the ERM?
BTW, did you get to Tooting? I'm (quite literally) laid up with a bad back so won't make it. Truly saddened!
We should never have the same interest rates (or the same currency) as our continental cousins.
I was meant to go this forthcoming week, but our Brexit contingency planning has a put a nix to that.
Good luck. That contingency is most definitely worth planning for.
I've been doing the same tonight for us. The US are our natural export market; I started the business in 07, and 09-10 was heavily reliant upon the weak pound to take up the slack of disappearing private client base in continental Europe and weaker domestic markets. This wouldn't be as straightforward now given our relative size - but the same vague principles apply, apart from that we never really regained the continental European client base.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
The Tories still led/tied in some ICM polls after Black Wednesday.
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
Next you're going to start claiming we were right to join the ERM?
BTW, did you get to Tooting? I'm (quite literally) laid up with a bad back so won't make it. Truly saddened!
We should never have the same interest rates (or the same currency) as our continental cousins.
I was meant to go this forthcoming week, but our Brexit contingency planning has a put a nix to that.
I've got a spare room or two in Florence.....you can include that in your contingency planning post Brexit. I do not cater though for odd tastes (like Margaret Thatcher posters), and we have to sing the Internationale every morning as the sun rises. Trust that is OK.
I reckon Brexit will be a shock, economically. I reckon it will bring on a recession (tho one we are due anyway). it will also impact me negatively personally in the form of lower London property prices.
But in the medium term - 3-7 years - I think we will recover, and in the long term - 7-15 years (about as far as anyone can possibly predict in any way), I think we will be a richer, stronger, happier country, as compared to some cowed resentful entity in a half-Federalised EU dominated by a caucused eurozone asking us to pay for their mistakes.
LEAVE.
I suggest that the time scale before the UK sees some beneficial effect should be far shorter. The UK is the second biggest net contributor to the EU budget after Germany, all for the privilege of securing trade in the ratio of 3:2 in terms of imports from to exports to the EU. That means that the UK is left holding all the aces in the event of post-Brexit negotiations.Two things might broadly happen:
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
The Tories still led/tied in some ICM polls after Black Wednesday.
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
Next you're going to start claiming we were right to join the ERM?
BTW, did you get to Tooting? I'm (quite literally) laid up with a bad back so won't make it. Truly saddened!
We should never have the same interest rates (or the same currency) as our continental cousins.
I was meant to go this forthcoming week, but our Brexit contingency planning has a put a nix to that.
I've got a spare room or two in Florence.....you can include that in your contingency planning post Brexit. I do not cater though for odd tastes (like Margaret Thatcher posters), and we have to sing the Internationale every morning as the sun rises. Trust that is OK.
The reason I will vote for exit is this - http://electrek.co/2016/06/02/tesla-model-3-fully-autonomous-elon-musk/?preview_id=17536 . If we want any part of new industries the government must take a part, and we are being locked out of the future by the EU because we cannot make any strategic investments. The remainers advance their personal financial status over the us, I don't care about people with apartments in France or Italy. I couldn't care less about holidays in Europe for the middle class. The middle class has become a parasite.
This is John "165 seats" Major, we're talking about?
John "30%" Major, no?
Major is one of the underrated politicians in history. He defied political gravity in 1992 to win an election is adverse circumstances for the Tories, in a soapbox-standing street-fighting campaign. Of course, he was routed in 1997 after five years of being shat on by the eurosceptic right who were seemingly determined to render their party unelectable for a generation.
Left wing revisionism on the premierships of Cameron and Major are fascinating. Apparently they were thoroughly good eggs. Presumably why Kinnock and Brown/Miliband all made no effort in trying to beat them.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
The Tories still led/tied in some ICM polls after Black Wednesday.
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
Next you're going to start claiming we were right to join the ERM?
BTW, did you get to Tooting? I'm (quite literally) laid up with a bad back so won't make it. Truly saddened!
We should never have the same interest rates (or the same currency) as our continental cousins.
I was meant to go this forthcoming week, but our Brexit contingency planning has a put a nix to that.
Stockpiling the bunker?
Making plans for opening up a Paris office/subsidiary.
Commentator on the EEC referendum results 'You can argue for Scotland to be an independent country but you cannot seriously argue for it also to be outside Europe, that is the madness of the SNP'
Comments
He threw the home owners of Middle England to the wolves to try and keep us in the ERM...
"the real divide is between those who want to stay with the nation state and those who want to move beyond it"
But I'll try and cover both at midnight.
@JeremyWarnerUK: Sorry, but bureaucratically administered points system likely to be much worse at answering economic needs than free movement of 500m people
especially for Tories
Telegraph backs Remain?
What hammered the Conservatives in 1997 was not just the poor vote share but tactical voting.
1. Do you believe that the EU is in the process of turning itself into a federal state?
2. Do you believe that the UK should be part of a federal state of Europe in your lifetime's?
a) blame the Government?
b) blame Europe?
c) blame themselves?
And if polls then show a marked degree of buyer's remorse, how far would they have to go before a new referendum became a politically viable proposition?
@Nick
pretty much as expected in Rome, Milan and Naples. I expected PD lead to be higher in Turin though. If it is less than 10% the run off will be competitive.
Be interesting if one says leave and the other remain.
So calm down everyone, it's only a referendum.
And with those thoughts, goodnight.
Are you serious? They will have every incentive to go for a deal.
It would take spectacular incompetence not to cope and adapt after some initial turbulence.
PD is the Government - centre-left, mainstream former communists plus centrists, led by Renzi (charismatic young Blairite)
Forza is Berlusconi - centre-right and primarily a vehicle for him
5 stars is Beppo - the populists, kick the rascals out. No very stable political position
The Left are those former communists and others who didn't fancy moving to the centre
de Magistris is an independent former prosecutor.
It would seem that Europe is as much of a morbid fascination for the left as the right.
Major lost in 97 (and would have lost in 93) because of massive economic miscalculation in joining the ERM, and the consequent fallout. Look at the opinion polls.
I will be voting Remain for my kids future. My son although based in London, spends much of his time in France. There is a real danger his company will move out of the UK if the vote is Leave. Difficult for him to move. Similarly my daughter sees more openings with us in the EU.
Freedom of Movement brings opportunities for young people as well as threats. As an aside went into Subway today. All the staff were Eastern European, the Manager told me they can't recruit local people apart from part time A level students.
"Who are these bloody foreigners......?"
5 star is Grillos Populist, anti political group- a cross between Corbyn and UKIP- very hard to define politically
PD is the very centre left now
Forza Italia is Berlusconi's centre right party
Right and Left speak for themselves
ICM were the only pollster that were anywhere near the final result in 1997
We saw James Bay last Friday, but I couldn't even hear him because I was surrounded by screaming Italian girls.
BTW, did you get to Tooting? I'm (quite literally) laid up with a bad back so won't make it. Truly saddened!
Anecdotally, I'm on a long weekend away with my extended family. They're not nearly so firmly Remain as I'd expected. OTOH, the keenest leaver began the discussion of the referendum with 'If I could be bothered to vote, which I can't, because I'm lazy, I' definitely be voting leave'. So maybe not unqualified good news for the outers.
I was meant to go this forthcoming week, but our Brexit contingency planning has a put a nix to that.
One thing that I never thought I'd say though is that come June 24th the Italian Political system may well seem to be much more stable and coherent than our own.
Andrea might not like to hear this, but Renzi is class. After Merkel, the standout political leader in Europe and someone who hopefully will lead Italy for some time to come.
I am very pleased though that Raggi, 5 Star, has taken Rome. I like her very much.
We tried for compromise, they chose not to. It would be unrealistic to expect us to, having voted out, after have had serious goes at reform not to actually leave. The problem is that they didn't pick this up in the negotiations. It wouldn't have been difficult. They could have kept an eye on how unpopular the EU is and not just in the UK.
http://www.uzbekembassy.org/e/visas_for_tourists/
5 Stars 36.5 PD 21.8 Right 21.5 Forza Italia 10.8
Bologna projection (5% of the sample)
PD 40 Forza Italia 20 Lega 19.8 Left 9.1
I've been doing the same tonight for us. The US are our natural export market; I started the business in 07, and 09-10 was heavily reliant upon the weak pound to take up the slack of disappearing private client base in continental Europe and weaker domestic markets. This wouldn't be as straightforward now given our relative size - but the same vague principles apply, apart from that we never really regained the continental European client base.
Interesting times.
Scenario one is that the EU plays hardball in terms of continued access to the single market and there is a serious contraction in the volume of EU-UK trade in both directions, let's say a scaling back of exports and imports of one third as that was mooted earlier as an extreme case. If so, the UK's net balance of payments deficit with the EU of £100bn (without which the UK would not have a balance of payments deficit at all) also shrinks by about £35bn. Thus the opportunities opened up for UK firms at home through import substitution would far outstripping the opportunities lost in EU markets. Even though there would be some shock of adjustment, the beneficial effects of this in revitalising UK manufacturing and service industries could be felt in the short to medium term, rather than the long term.
Scenario two is that Bosch, VW et al come knocking on the EU Commission's door and faced with the EU's need to secure continued access to the £320bn currently exported to the UK, an accommodation is reached such that the single market continues pretty well as now. Thus the volume of UK-EU trade would be unaffected, but with the UK having secured some significant concessions from the EU in return that would improve the UK's ability to compete in EU markets. If so, there is no shock at all, just an immediate benefit to the ability of the UK to compete in EU markets.
Is it anywhere near the target range?
Would a bit of inflation help?
Leave 69%
Remain 29%
Is a poll of Telegraph subscribers. Ferfuxsake
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/05/eu-referendum-telegraph-subscribers-say-they-back-a-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Had me going for a micro second but I looked at my clock.