politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Democratic Party California primary
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Fair enough - and even a good thing - if they were assessing the right things. They ought to be assessing the ability of teachers to stimulate enthusiasm in pupils, their attempts to innovate in teaching, as professional decision takers etc - not just operate in a robotic way as happens in the USA and parts of Asia.williamglenn said:
The system is increasingly designed to assess teachers rather than pupils.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - the entire system is about passing a series of tests, nothing else. We have a PISA obsession and so are seeking to copy what happens in some Asian countries, without looking at the end product and whether that is what will work for us. I wish we put more emphasis on the ability to analyse, to create and to ask hard questions of people in authority and of the status quo generally.OldKingCole said:
If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.AlastairMeeks said:There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).
There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.0 -
In the Independent today Ashoka Mody is utterly scathing, and almost contemptuous, of the Bank of England's position on Brexit,
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Yep, my wife is a 3 too. It's such a waste because she was very good. But everything became too prescriptive and too test focused. And so much bureaucracy.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Cole, I am sorry but I really do get very cross about the education system in this country. Most of the people that go into teaching do so for good reasons and then the system takes over and they then seem to react in three different ways:OldKingCole said:
If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.AlastairMeeks said:There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).
There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
1. They get captured by the system, forget why they came into teaching, and end up worrying about the process rather than the outcome.
2. They hang on desperately trying to stay true to themselves but despairing of the culture they have to work in (see posts on here from our good Welsh Doctor)
3. They give up and leave - I did.
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The difficulty that my grandson seems to have is that the process is both rigorously prescribed and the prescription altered at what appear to be whimsical intervals.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Cole, I am sorry but I really do get very cross about the education system in this country. Most of the people that go into teaching do so for good reasons and then the system takes over and they then seem to react in three different ways:OldKingCole said:
If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.AlastairMeeks said:There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).
There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
1. They get captured by the system, forget why they came into teaching, and end up worrying about the process rather than the outcome.
2. They hang on desperately trying to stay true to themselves but despairing of the culture they have to work in (see posts on here from our good Welsh Doctor)
3. They give up and leave - I did.
And, for those worried about languagues he teaches primary children and he’s currently off on a course (in the half-term week) to refresh his Spanish so he can teach it to 7 year olds in Basildon0 -
The same families exist today. Back in the day, we had a system designed to churn out young people at fourteen and fifteen to go an d work in factories and do other types of manual job, with a grammar elite at the top to work in the offices and labs. It worked very well. But the world is now very different, or at least our part of it is. Our education system has not caught up.taffys said:So me saying the system is still not good enough is misty eyed nonsense.
Old re-runs of ask the family with egghead Robinson tells you all you need to know about where we are with education...
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my impression of most graduate schemes is that they are looking for the sort of people who will be enthusiastic in any situation rather than people who are knowledgeable, critical, observant and analytical.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - the entire system is about passing a series of tests, nothing else. We have a PISA obsession and so are seeking to copy what happens in some Asian countries, without looking at the end product and whether that is what will work for us. I wish we put more emphasis on the ability to analyse, to create and to ask hard questions of people in authority and of the status quo generally.
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Hmm second minor earthquake today while I was typing my last post, I am sure commonplace to our friends in Japan, but a bit of a novelty to me. I was pretty close to the Bohol Earthquake a couple or so years which was very big with multiple aftershocks, but now I am living about a mile from the Philippine Deep, and hence the Ring of Fire, its a little bit more excitable around here
Nothing dangerous recently, only about between 3 and 4 on the scale, but enough to get your attention! 0 -
Agreed. Knowledge is vital, but how it is acquired is key. I was lucky enough to go to the last ILEA grammar school. We did very little in the way of rote learning and the only tests we took were internal ones at year end, our mocks and then our O and A levels. The teachers were trusted to get on with it and to teach in the way thought was best. That meant we had a few very bad ones, but most were excellent.HurstLlama said:
Yup, good points. Unfortunately in order to ask hard questions one has to understand the topic. So without a good level of knowledge the questioner won't even know what question needs to be asked of those in authority.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - the entire system is about passing a series of tests, nothing else. We have a PISA obsession and so are seeking to copy what happens in some Asian countries, without looking at the end product and whether that is what will work for us. I wish we put more emphasis on the ability to analyse, to create and to ask hard questions of people in authority and of the status quo generally.OldKingCole said:
If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.AlastairMeeks said:There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).
There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
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Mr. Indigo, hope they stay minor.0
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Winston Churchill: By being so long [three years iirc] in the lowest form I gained an immense advantage over the cleverer boys. They all went on to learn Latin and Greek and splendid things like that. But I was taught English. We were considered such dunces that we could learn only English. Mr. Somervell -- a most delightful man, to whom my debt is great -- was charged with the duty of teaching the stupidest boys the most disregarded thing -- namely, to write mere English.PlatoSaid said:
Without Latin, I'd have no idea. I can only recall a single English lesson that mentioned the technicalities of grammar.tlg86 said:
There was a piece in the Guardian not so long ago that argued that part of the reason we find learning foreign languages tough is that we don't understand how our own one works. I know there's been a lot of moaning about the quite technical questions on English SATs tests, but it might be a good thing in the future. That said, I fear that 11 year olds will just learn the answers for the tests rather than fully grasping how words hang together.Pulpstar said:
I don't remember doing half as much grammar as seems to be in the curriculum these days (1986 - 1997). English appears to have become tougher.OldKingCole said:
If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.AlastairMeeks said:There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).
There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.0 -
I loved that show. He was such a condescending snob. And the format! Mother and Older Child.taffys said:So me saying the system is still not good enough is misty eyed nonsense.
Old re-runs of ask the family with egghead Robinson tells you all you need to know about where we are with education...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjprLNd9BCk0 -
There's been no sign of Richard Nabavi for quite some while - I wonder whether he may be sick or off on his hols.
I just hope this highly respected and very longstanding PBer han't just decided to pack his bags and head off for pastures new.0 -
4. They start a PGCE to become a Physics teacher, realise within a few months what an awful job teaching has become, quit the course and happily return to their private sector profession. That'll be me.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Cole, I am sorry but I really do get very cross about the education system in this country. Most of the people that go into teaching do so for good reasons and then the system takes over and they then seem to react in three different ways:OldKingCole said:
If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.AlastairMeeks said:There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).
There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
1. They get captured by the system, forget why they came into teaching, and end up worrying about the process rather than the outcome.
2. They hang on desperately trying to stay true to themselves but despairing of the culture they have to work in (see posts on here from our good Welsh Doctor)
3. They give up and leave - I did.0 -
He was wasn’t he; none of the speed of University Challenge. I had a jacket like Mr Buswell at about that time, too.PlatoSaid said:
I loved that show. He was such a condescending snob. And the format! Mother and Older Child.taffys said:So me saying the system is still not good enough is misty eyed nonsense.
Old re-runs of ask the family with egghead Robinson tells you all you need to know about where we are with education...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjprLNd9BCk
No-one on here was a contestantt? Or knew a family who were?0 -
My eldest sister had a pen friend who was on it. Her family made the final. During the filming they had to take a break after RR stormed out because of the other family annoying him.OldKingCole said:
He was wasn’t he; none of the speed of University Challenge. I had a jacket like Mr Buswell at about that time, too.PlatoSaid said:
I loved that show. He was such a condescending snob. And the format! Mother and Older Child.taffys said:So me saying the system is still not good enough is misty eyed nonsense.
Old re-runs of ask the family with egghead Robinson tells you all you need to know about where we are with education...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjprLNd9BCk
No-one on here was a contestantt? Or knew a family who were?0 -
He is into personal glorification now.Alistair said:
I think she's lookin to kill Sanders off once and for all to get him to stop with his sabotage of the democratic party.peter_from_putney said:"Clinton has cancelled a day of campaigning in NJ this week and will instead return to California for 5 days ahead of the June 7 primary."
Says it all really.0 -
surbiton said:
Who is he ?taffys said:In the Independent today Ashoka Mody is utterly scathing, and almost contemptuous, of the Bank of England's position on Brexit,
Visiting professor at Princeton. Yes I know, one swallow and all that...surbiton said:
Who is he ?taffys said:In the Independent today Ashoka Mody is utterly scathing, and almost contemptuous, of the Bank of England's position on Brexit,
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Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
My eldest sister had a pen friend who was on it. Her family made the final. During the filming they had to take a break after RR stormed out because of the other family annoying him.OldKingCole said:
He was wasn’t he; none of the speed of University Challenge. I had a jacket like Mr Buswell at about that time, too.PlatoSaid said:
I loved that show. He was such a condescending snob. And the format! Mother and Older Child.taffys said:So me saying the system is still not good enough is misty eyed nonsense.
Old re-runs of ask the family with egghead Robinson tells you all you need to know about where we are with education...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjprLNd9BCk
No-one on here was a contestantt? Or knew a family who were?
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I went to a grammar school in Battersea. Most of my teachers were WW2 veterans, I don't suppose any of them would be allowed near a classroom today (some were certainly barking), none of them taught to the exam, but all had a passion, a love and deep understanding of their subject. Even now I can remember a magical lesson when Dr. Clarke got fired up by a question form one of my fellows and gave us 45 minutes of impromptu teaching on the development of number theory - wasn't in the lesson plan or the scheme of work (not that such things existed in those days) but it changed my life - mathematics was in and medicine was out.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed. Knowledge is vital, but how it is acquired is key. I was lucky enough to go to the last ILEA grammar school. We did very little in the way of rote learning and the only tests we took were internal ones at year end, our mocks and then our O and A levels. The teachers were trusted to get on with it and to teach in the way thought was best. That meant we had a few very bad ones, but most were excellent.
Of course, as it happened I was never a good enough mathematician (only got a 2:1) so I became a soldier, civil servant, teacher, management trainer, old buffer instead.0 -
When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.0 -
When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
Another example is Labour standing solidly for remaining in the UK in the scottish referendum and just over a year later it ended up as the 3rd party of Scotland.0 -
Is it really that different? There are still offices and labs, and there are still manual jobs. What has nosedived I guess is the old working class industrial skilled man.SouthamObserver said:
The same families exist today. Back in the day, we had a system designed to churn out young people at fourteen and fifteen to go an d work in factories and do other types of manual job, with a grammar elite at the top to work in the offices and labs. It worked very well. But the world is now very different, or at least our part of it is. Our education system has not caught up.taffys said:So me saying the system is still not good enough is misty eyed nonsense.
Old re-runs of ask the family with egghead Robinson tells you all you need to know about where we are with education...
Its the bedrock blue collar male worker where we have seen the decline, isn;t it?0 -
Brexit will result in our world being engulfed by a black hole says leading scientist..... (Well something close to that).
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/may/31/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-popularity-inexplicable-and-brexit-spells-disaster0 -
Britain elects are tweeting out the ORB supplementaries.
The ONLY one that is good for Leave is this one
@britainelects: #EUref: On which will improve the UK's immigration system
Remaining: 23%
Leaving: 52%
(via ORB)
Maybe that's enough0 -
Some REMAINers may need to be put on suicide watch if the polls have turned.peter_from_putney said:There's been no sign of Richard Nabavi for quite some while - I wonder whether he may be sick or off on his hols.
I just hope this highly respected and very longstanding PBer han't just decided to pack his bags and head off for pastures new.
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Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.0 -
We had an ex Singapore POW teaching us Botany and Zoology (late 50’s). Thing to do was get him onto vitamin deficiency!HurstLlama said:
I went to a grammar school in Battersea. Most of my teachers were WW2 veterans, I don't suppose any of them would be allowed near a classroom today (some were certainly barking), none of them taught to the exam, but all had a passion, a love and deep understanding of their subject. Even now I can remember a magical lesson when Dr. Clarke got fired up by a question form one of my fellows and gave us 45 minutes of impromptu teaching on the development of number theory - wasn't in the lesson plan or the scheme of work (not that such things existed in those days) but it changed my life - mathematics was in and medicine was out.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed. Knowledge is vital, but how it is acquired is key. I was lucky enough to go to the last ILEA grammar school. We did very little in the way of rote learning and the only tests we took were internal ones at year end, our mocks and then our O and A levels. The teachers were trusted to get on with it and to teach in the way thought was best. That meant we had a few very bad ones, but most were excellent.
Of course, as it happened I was never a good enough mathematician (only got a 2:1) so I became a soldier, civil servant, teacher, management trainer, old buffer instead.
He also had no problem (apart from worries about a possible visit from the Head) with us smoking while dissecting dogfish, which were soaked in formalin!0 -
I well recall the Cleggasm backlash. You're pro immigration? And EU? And amnesty for illegals!!! It took much of the wind from his sails.TCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.0 -
That’s what happened with AV, wasn’t it; all going well (for supporters) for ages then things turned and that was that.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Some REMAINers may need to be put on suicide watch if the polls have turned.peter_from_putney said:There's been no sign of Richard Nabavi for quite some while - I wonder whether he may be sick or off on his hols.
I just hope this highly respected and very longstanding PBer han't just decided to pack his bags and head off for pastures new.0 -
TCPoliticalBetting said:
Brexit will result in our world being engulfed by a black hole says leading scientist..... (Well something close to that).
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/may/31/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-popularity-inexplicable-and-brexit-spells-disaster
This is great entertainment, whatever the result.0 -
Doesn't Richard go skiing this time every year?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Some REMAINers may need to be put on suicide watch if the polls have turned.peter_from_putney said:There's been no sign of Richard Nabavi for quite some while - I wonder whether he may be sick or off on his hols.
I just hope this highly respected and very longstanding PBer han't just decided to pack his bags and head off for pastures new.0 -
Heh I achieved a Desmond for my sins, another in the "not quite good enough" mathematician stakesHurstLlama said:
I went to a grammar school in Battersea. Most of my teachers were WW2 veterans, I don't suppose any of them would be allowed near a classroom today (some were certainly barking), none of them taught to the exam, but all had a passion, a love and deep understanding of their subject. Even now I can remember a magical lesson when Dr. Clarke got fired up by a question form one of my fellows and gave us 45 minutes of impromptu teaching on the development of number theory - wasn't in the lesson plan or the scheme of work (not that such things existed in those days) but it changed my life - mathematics was in and medicine was out.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed. Knowledge is vital, but how it is acquired is key. I was lucky enough to go to the last ILEA grammar school. We did very little in the way of rote learning and the only tests we took were internal ones at year end, our mocks and then our O and A levels. The teachers were trusted to get on with it and to teach in the way thought was best. That meant we had a few very bad ones, but most were excellent.
Of course, as it happened I was never a good enough mathematician (only got a 2:1) so I became a soldier, civil servant, teacher, management trainer, old buffer instead. 0 -
Reporting for duty! I've just been very busy the last few days, something called 'real life' getting in the way of posting on PB.peter_from_putney said:There's been no sign of Richard Nabavi for quite some while - I wonder whether he may be sick or off on his hols.
I just hope this highly respected and very longstanding PBer han't just decided to pack his bags and head off for pastures new.
Very concerned to hear JackW is not well - I hope he makes a speedy recovery.
A betting thought: What is the chance of Boris becoming next PM in the event of a Remain result? Something like 'the square root of b-all' probably covers it, I think. In the event of a Leave result, he'd have a much better chance, but, even so, would by no means be a shoo-in.
So how come best odds on Boris for Next PM (3.75) are shorter than the odds on Leave (4.5)? One or both of these must be wrong, methinks. Possibly both - Boris should be longer, Leave should possibly be a bit shorter.0 -
No had a comfortable lead by this stage in AVref and Cameron was against AV he is for RemainOldKingCole said:
That’s what happened with AV, wasn’t it; all going well (for supporters) for ages then things turned and that was that.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Some REMAINers may need to be put on suicide watch if the polls have turned.peter_from_putney said:There's been no sign of Richard Nabavi for quite some while - I wonder whether he may be sick or off on his hols.
I just hope this highly respected and very longstanding PBer han't just decided to pack his bags and head off for pastures new.0 -
#EUref: On which will give us greater control over our lives:Scott_P said:Britain elects are tweeting out the ORB supplementaries.
The ONLY one that is good for Leave is this one
@britainelects: #EUref: On which will improve the UK's immigration system
Remaining: 23%
Leaving: 52%
(via ORB)
Maybe that's enough
Remaining: 30%
Leaving: 48%
(via ORB)
This was pretty good for leave also.0 -
We'd an Old Girl as Head of Geography. It took the merest prod to get her talking about decades in Africa. It was fascinating and much more memorable than the syllabus. She was a martinet. No one dared fail an exam. She'd make anyone who forgot their atlas stand on a chair.OldKingCole said:
We had an ex Singapore POW teaching us Botany and Zoology (late 50’s). Thing to do was get him onto vitamin deficiency!HurstLlama said:
I went to a grammar school in Battersea. Most of my teachers were WW2 veterans, I don't suppose any of them would be allowed near a classroom today (some were certainly barking), none of them taught to the exam, but all had a passion, a love and deep understanding of their subject. Even now I can remember a magical lesson when Dr. Clarke got fired up by a question form one of my fellows and gave us 45 minutes of impromptu teaching on the development of number theory - wasn't in the lesson plan or the scheme of work (not that such things existed in those days) but it changed my life - mathematics was in and medicine was out.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed. Knowledge is vital, but how it is acquired is key. I was lucky enough to go to the last ILEA grammar school. We did very little in the way of rote learning and the only tests we took were internal ones at year end, our mocks and then our O and A levels. The teachers were trusted to get on with it and to teach in the way thought was best. That meant we had a few very bad ones, but most were excellent.
Of course, as it happened I was never a good enough mathematician (only got a 2:1) so I became a soldier, civil servant, teacher, management trainer, old buffer instead.
He also had no problem (apart from worries about a possible visit from the Head) with us smoking while dissecting dogfish, which were soaked in formalin!0 -
The odds on Boris as next PM have always been too short! A lay-the-favourite market if ever there was one.Richard_Nabavi said:
Reporting for duty! I've just been very busy the last few days, something called 'real life' getting in the way of posting on PB.peter_from_putney said:There's been no sign of Richard Nabavi for quite some while - I wonder whether he may be sick or off on his hols.
I just hope this highly respected and very longstanding PBer han't just decided to pack his bags and head off for pastures new.
Very concerned to hear JackW is not well - I hope he makes a speedy recovery.
A betting thought: What is the chance of Boris becoming next PM in the event of a Remain result? Something like 'the square root of b-all' probably covers it, I think. In the event of a Leave result, he'd have a much better chance, but, even so, would by no means be a shoo-in.
So how come best odds on Boris for Next PM (3.75) are shorter than the odds on Leave (4.5)? One or both of these must be wrong, methinks. Possibly both - Boris should be longer, Leave should possibly be a bit shorter.0 -
An interesting read indeed. It is pretty much in line with the leaver view of things.taffys said:In the Independent today Ashoka Mody is utterly scathing, and almost contemptuous, of the Bank of England's position on Brexit,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/eu-referendum-why-the-economic-consensus-on-brexit-is-flawed-a7057306.html0 -
Do Leave really need any purpose behind exiting the EU than it giving us greater control over our lives? That is a remarkably good number.Razedabode said:
#EUref: On which will give us greater control over our lives:Scott_P said:Britain elects are tweeting out the ORB supplementaries.
The ONLY one that is good for Leave is this one
@britainelects: #EUref: On which will improve the UK's immigration system
Remaining: 23%
Leaving: 52%
(via ORB)
Maybe that's enough
Remaining: 30%
Leaving: 48%
(via ORB)
This was pretty good for leave also.
This ain't over yet.0 -
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least false recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
I have yet to meet a member of the southern WWC who is not at least considering voting Leave. And the WWC are still a considerable part of Labour's dwindling voter base.
Tory voters have known about the euro split in the party for a long time. This referendum might be the wake up call for legacy Labour voters that the party they have always votes for has been taken over by the Islingtonites.0 -
Ah, the problems of memory as one gets older! Things were always better “then”!HYUFD said:
No had a comfortable lead by this stage in AVref and Cameron was against AV he is for RemainOldKingCole said:
That’s what happened with AV, wasn’t it; all going well (for supporters) for ages then things turned and that was that.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Some REMAINers may need to be put on suicide watch if the polls have turned.peter_from_putney said:There's been no sign of Richard Nabavi for quite some while - I wonder whether he may be sick or off on his hols.
I just hope this highly respected and very longstanding PBer han't just decided to pack his bags and head off for pastures new.0 -
OT Does anyone know who Madeline Murray O'Hair was?
Just watching a fascinating docu about her.
In 1963, her lawsuit stopped prayer in US public schools.0 -
He wasn't called Mr Livingstone was he?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, my history teacher saw I was reading a book about Hitler (borrowed from the library). Asked how I found it, I said it was ok, and he said it was aimed at Sixth Formers/undergraduates (I was 12 at the time). He seemed pleased, though.
0 -
Get well soon jackW and a fast recovery MikeK.0
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*** Betting Shop Post ***
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/31/big-gamble-dangerous-british-betting-shops0 -
The new London Mayor has appointed a Mayoral Dorector for Political and Public Affairs. Jack Stenner is 28 and has been a party bag carrier since graduating in 2009. His salary - £105,893.
http://order-order.com/2016/05/31/khans-105000-a-year-aide-never-worked-outside-politics/0 -
Although ironically, Cameron is in all probability more pro-EU than Corbyn. The latter has been dragged into Remain by his backers; Cameron has needed no such help and his position has cost him support within his party.Mortimer said:
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least false recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
I have yet to meet a member of the southern WWC who is not at least considering voting Leave. And the WWC are still a considerable part of Labour's dwindling voter base.
Tory voters have known about the euro split in the party for a long time. This referendum might be the wake up call for legacy Labour voters that the party they have always votes for has been taken over by the Islingtonites.0 -
Sandpit said:
The new London Mayor has appointed a Mayoral Dorector for Political and Public Affairs. Jack Stenner is 28 and has been a party bag carrier since graduating in 2009. His salary - £105,893.
http://order-order.com/2016/05/31/khans-105000-a-year-aide-never-worked-outside-politics/
0 -
Labour's voting base now is more public sector workers, the liberal middle classes and ethnic minorities, many of the wwc who will vote Leave are most likely already voting UKIP anyway.Mortimer said:
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least false recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
I have yet to meet a member of the southern WWC who is not at least considering voting Leave. And the WWC are still a considerable part of Labour's dwindling voter base.
Tory voters have known about the euro split in the party for a long time. This referendum might be the wake up call for legacy Labour voters that the party they have always votes for has been taken over by the Islingtonites.
Tory voters did not know that their party leader and most of his Cabinet would lead the Remain campaign in a constant stream of scare tactics against Leave, many Leave voting Tories will have their revenge if Remain do win narrowly by switching to UKIP!0 -
I wouldn't underestimate Boris' ability to reinvent himself again should Remain win - and his Brexit stance will still help with the memberhship if he gets that far. But I suspect that whatever the EURef result, Boris won't make the final two when the leadership election comes about.Richard_Nabavi said:
Reporting for duty! I've just been very busy the last few days, something called 'real life' getting in the way of posting on PB.peter_from_putney said:There's been no sign of Richard Nabavi for quite some while - I wonder whether he may be sick or off on his hols.
I just hope this highly respected and very longstanding PBer han't just decided to pack his bags and head off for pastures new.
Very concerned to hear JackW is not well - I hope he makes a speedy recovery.
A betting thought: What is the chance of Boris becoming next PM in the event of a Remain result? Something like 'the square root of b-all' probably covers it, I think. In the event of a Leave result, he'd have a much better chance, but, even so, would by no means be a shoo-in.
So how come best odds on Boris for Next PM (3.75) are shorter than the odds on Leave (4.5)? One or both of these must be wrong, methinks. Possibly both - Boris should be longer, Leave should possibly be a bit shorter.0 -
That is very probably true in the southern half of England but it's pretty improbable further North.HYUFD said:
Labour's voting base now is more public sector workers, the liberal middle classes and ethnic minorities, many of the wwc who will vote Leave are most likely already voting UKIP anyway.Mortimer said:
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least false recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
I have yet to meet a member of the southern WWC who is not at least considering voting Leave. And the WWC are still a considerable part of Labour's dwindling voter base.
Tory voters have known about the euro split in the party for a long time. This referendum might be the wake up call for legacy Labour voters that the party they have always votes for has been taken over by the Islingtonites.0 -
It is plausible that 3%+ of the Con2015 voters have moved to UKIP.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
0 -
'More than £670 million of EU spending was lost to fraud last year, new figures reveal.
The false claims were concentrated in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary, Olaf, the EU’s anti-fraud office said, as it uncovered €888 million of rogue spending....Four in ten EU officials found to have been implicated in fraud were not punished by their employers and only a handful were dismissed, the report also finds.
Examples of fraud included €1.3 million payment to modernise a vegetable chilling plant in Bulgaria. They found the equipment supplier and the factory owner were the same Italian citizen, who had inflated the price of the supplies.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-see-significant-poll-boost-amid-imm/#update-20160531-13100 -
And now you can't even get its/it's right. A sorry state of affairs indeed...MikeK said:
No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.Scott_P said:@trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s
@trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%
@trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
40%.
@trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.
@trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy
And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England.
0 -
It is plausible that 3%+ more could move after the referendumTCPoliticalBetting said:
It is plausible that 3%+ of the Con2015 voters have moved to UKIP.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.0 -
I guess that's the point, he referred to Khan's religion for political reasons, a million miles from the recent tone. So what, Khan is a Muslim - who cares, I don't. I was derided on here for having a go at Cameron when he turned up in Gravesend wearing orange head gear, the man is a total fraud.NickPalmer said:
There is a certain rather undesirable consistency there (I'm not sure it's hypocrisy) - he clearly thinks of Khan primarily as a Muslim. Khan seems to me well balanced on it - yes, I'm various things, inter alia a Muslim, thanks for your interest. He's appropriately concerned about some aspects - isolating extremists, getting rid of glass ceilings - but he clearly doesn't wake up each morning and think "What can I do for Islam today?"blackburn63 said:I think I've mentioned before I dislike Cameron, can't remember, yesterday was another example of how he'll prostitute himself to anybody. A couple of weeks after slagging him off and encouraging pictures of bombed double deckers, he called Khan "a proud muslim". Perhaps he'll call Gerry Adams "a proud catholic" or Ed "a proud jew". Identity politics at its worst, a desperate, duplicitous PM prepared to say anything, yes anything, to meet his own ends.
He makes Blair look principled and sincere.
Cameron, however, seems to think either "Ooh, there's a Muslim, maybe he's an extremist", or alternatively "Ah, here's a moderate Muslim, that's great". It makes life unnecessarily difficult for people who don't see religion as the dominant force in their lives - which, I'd argue, sane people should not. I live in a multicultural area, and the whole point of it is that we just get on with each other and treat people as individuals.0 -
Under FPTP it does not cost Labour anything if a few of its wwc voters shift to UKIP in Knowsley and its northern heartlands, it costs the Tories a lot more if some Leave voting Tories shift to UKIP in Tory marginal seats!chestnut said:
That is very probably true in the southern half of England but it's pretty improbable further North.HYUFD said:
Labour's voting base now is more public sector workers, the liberal middle classes and ethnic minorities, many of the wwc who will vote Leave are most likely already voting UKIP anyway.Mortimer said:
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least faUnder lse recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
I have yet to meet a member of the southern WWC who is not at least considering voting Leave. And the WWC are still a considerable part of Labour's dwindling voter base.
Tory voters have known about the euro split in the party for a long time. This referendum might be the wake up call for legacy Labour voters that the party they have always votes for has been taken over by the Islingtonites.0 -
Agreed on both counts! I wouldn't count on as large a Tory volunteer army at the next general. At least, not for the Remainiac MPs.david_herdson said:
Although ironically, Cameron is in all probability more pro-EU than Corbyn. The latter has been dragged into Remain by his backers; Cameron has needed no such help and his position has cost him support within his party.Mortimer said:
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least false recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
I have yet to meet a member of the southern WWC who is not at least considering voting Leave. And the WWC are still a considerable part of Labour's dwindling voter base.
Tory voters have known about the euro split in the party for a long time. This referendum might be the wake up call for legacy Labour voters that the party they have always votes for has been taken over by the Islingtonites.
All 3 of the MPs that I have helped locally are Brexiteers - for which I am truly thankful.0 -
Agreeddavid_herdson said:
Although ironically, Cameron is in all probability more pro-EU than Corbyn. The latter has been dragged into Remain by his backers; Cameron has needed no such help and his position has cost him support within his party.Mortimer said:
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least false recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
I have yet to meet a member of the southern WWC who is not at least considering voting Leave. And the WWC are still a considerable part of Labour's dwindling voter base.
Tory voters have known about the euro split in the party for a long time. This referendum might be the wake up call for legacy Labour voters that the party they have always votes for has been taken over by the Islingtonites.0 -
0
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OldKingCole asked earlier on this thread if anyone knew a family who had appeared on "Ask The Family." A girl in my school appeared on it and her family did quite well. Soon afterwards the father went off with a younger woman.0
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I know you like to stick to your guns, however spiked they seem, but just two points:HYUFD said:
Under FPTP it does not cost Labour anything if a few of its wwc voters shift to UKIP in Knowsley and its northern heartlands, it costs the Tories a lot more if some Leave voting Tories shift to UKIP in Tory marginal seats!chestnut said:
That is very probably true in the southern half of England but it's pretty improbable further North.HYUFD said:
Labour's voting base now is more public sector workers, the liberal middle classes and ethnic minorities, many of the wwc who will vote Leave are most likely already voting UKIP anyway.Mortimer said:
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least faUnder lse recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
I have yet to meet a member of the southern WWC who is not at least considering voting Leave. And the WWC are still a considerable part of Labour's dwindling voter base.
Tory voters have known about the euro split in the party for a long time. This referendum might be the wake up call for legacy Labour voters that the party they have always votes for has been taken over by the Islingtonites.
1) There are many Northern and especially Midland seats where the WWC form a majority of the voters. 'A few' could turn into 'a few thousand'
2) The Tory/Labour marginals are mostly midland and more Northerly now - how are Labour ever going to win them back if they see their WWC backing in these seats disappear.
Sometimes electoral speculation benefits from looking at the realities on the ground, not the polls - which are frankly less and less useful anyway.0 -
Against a Corbyn- or Macdonnell-led Labour party, those sort of considerations will count for little. The types who would be willing to sacrifice Remainers even at the risk of letting in Labour have already defected to UKIP.Mortimer said:
Agreed on both counts! I wouldn't count on as large a Tory volunteer army at the next general. At least, not for the Remainiac MPs.david_herdson said:
Although ironically, Cameron is in all probability more pro-EU than Corbyn. The latter has been dragged into Remain by his backers; Cameron has needed no such help and his position has cost him support within his party.Mortimer said:
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least false recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
I have yet to meet a member of the southern WWC who is not at least considering voting Leave. And the WWC are still a considerable part of Labour's dwindling voter base.
Tory voters have known about the euro split in the party for a long time. This referendum might be the wake up call for legacy Labour voters that the party they have always votes for has been taken over by the Islingtonites.
All 3 of the MPs that I have helped locally are Brexiteers - for which I am truly thankful.0 -
The fox has many tricks. The hedgehog has only one.........but it's a good one.Scott_P said:Britain elects are tweeting out the ORB supplementaries.
The ONLY one that is good for Leave is this one
@britainelects: #EUref: On which will improve the UK's immigration system
Remaining: 23%
Leaving: 52%
(via ORB)
Maybe that's enough0 -
Working in a betting shop sounds like a truly unpleasant job.VapidBilge said:*** Betting Shop Post ***
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/31/big-gamble-dangerous-british-betting-shops0 -
Yup, can't argue with that logic.david_herdson said:
Against a Corbyn- or Macdonnell-led Labour party, those sort of considerations will count for little. The types who would be willing to sacrifice Remainers even at the risk of letting in Labour have already defected to UKIP.Mortimer said:
Agreed on both counts! I wouldn't count on as large a Tory volunteer army at the next general. At least, not for the Remainiac MPs.david_herdson said:
Although ironically, Cameron is in all probability more pro-EU than Corbyn. The latter has been dragged into Remain by his backers; Cameron has needed no such help and his position has cost him support within his party.Mortimer said:
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least false recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign memo from Britain Stronger In Europe leaked to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
I have yet to meet a member of the southern WWC who is not at least considering voting Leave. And the WWC are still a considerable part of Labour's dwindling voter base.
Tory voters have known about the euro split in the party for a long time. This referendum might be the wake up call for legacy Labour voters that the party they have always votes for has been taken over by the Islingtonites.
All 3 of the MPs that I have helped locally are Brexiteers - for which I am truly thankful.
My fear is that this nasty Govt sponsored campaign is more stupid short termist from Osborne. What if the next election is not against Corbo...0 -
TSE, I've got a hole in my schedule and there is an article (in two parts) I want to write about statistics in betting. Nothing revolutionary and no complicated sums, just a discussion about how the use of two common statistical concepts, whilst entirely legitimate, obscure certain facets that should be, er, not so obscure-y. I need anonymity: if I send them to you will I get it?TheScreamingEagles said:
...stuff...
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But until the late 1980s a Desmond degree - ie a 2.2 - was the normal degree. There can surely be little doubt that the vast majority of students awared 2.2 degrees in the 1960s,70s and probably 80s would now be given a - probably quite comfortable - 2.1. Such has been the effect of grade inflation and changes in assessment methods over the years.Pulpstar said:
Heh I achieved a Desmond for my sins, another in the "not quite good enough" mathematician stakesHurstLlama said:
I went to a grammar school in Battersea. Most of my teachers were WW2 veterans, I don't suppose any of them would be allowed near a classroom today (some were certainly barking), none of them taught to the exam, but all had a passion, a love and deep understanding of their subject. Even now I can remember a magical lesson when Dr. Clarke got fired up by a question form one of my fellows and gave us 45 minutes of impromptu teaching on the development of number theory - wasn't in the lesson plan or the scheme of work (not that such things existed in those days) but it changed my life - mathematics was in and medicine was out.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed. Knowledge is vital, but how it is acquired is key. I was lucky enough to go to the last ILEA grammar school. We did very little in the way of rote learning and the only tests we took were internal ones at year end, our mocks and then our O and A levels. The teachers were trusted to get on with it and to teach in the way thought was best. That meant we had a few very bad ones, but most were excellent.
Of course, as it happened I was never a good enough mathematician (only got a 2:1) so I became a soldier, civil servant, teacher, management trainer, old buffer instead.0 -
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
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Your fear and mine alike.Mortimer said:
Yup, can't argue with that logic.david_herdson said:
Against a Corbyn- or Macdonnell-led Labour party, those sort of considerations will count for little. The types who would be willing to sacrifice Remainers even at the risk of letting in Labour have already defected to UKIP.Mortimer said:
Agreed on both counts! I wouldn't count on as large a Tory volunteer army at the next general. At least, not for the Remainiac MPs.david_herdson said:
Although ironically, Cameron is in all probability more pro-EU than Corbyn. The latter has been dragged into Remain by his backers; Cameron has needed no such help and his position has cost him support within his party.Mortimer said:
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least false recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU."
"A campaign to the Guardian shows that only about half of Labour voters have realised their party is in favour of staying in the EU, with the rest thinking it is split or believing it is a party of Brexit."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
At the european elections in 2014, Clegg thought it was a good idea to ensure that all LD voters knew how europhile the party was and went ahead with the debates vs Farage..... it resulted in just 1 MEP. He ignored the previous polling that had indicated that the anti-EU LD voters were typically >40% of its vote.
I have yet to meet a member of the southern WWC who is not at least considering voting Leave. And the WWC are still a considerable part of Labour's dwindling voter base.
Tory voters have known about the euro split in the party for a long time. This referendum might be the wake up call for legacy Labour voters that the party they have always votes for has been taken over by the Islingtonites.
All 3 of the MPs that I have helped locally are Brexiteers - for which I am truly thankful.
My fear is that this nasty Govt sponsored campaign is more stupid short termist from Osborne. What if the next election is not against Corbo...0 -
1) Most of those seats are also Labour safe seats, the marginals are filled with the suburban middle classesMortimer said:
I know you like to stick to your guns, however spiked they seem, but just two points:HYUFD said:
Under FPTP it does not cost Labour anything if a few of its wwc voters shift to UKIP in Knowsley and its northern heartlands, it costs the Tories a lot more if some Leave voting Tories shift to UKIP in Tory marginal seats!chestnut said:
That is very probably true in the southern half of England but it's pretty improbable further North.HYUFD said:
Labour's voting base now is more public sector workers, the liberal middle classes and ethnic minorities, many of the wwc who will vote Leave are most likely already voting UKIP anyway.Mortimer said:
HYUFD - you're relying on polls with various possible flaws, not least faUnder lse recall.HYUFD said:
Only 25% of Labour voters back Leave, 50%+ of Tory voters do. In EU ref at least the Tories are more at risk of driving away core supporters and losing them to UKIP under the present leadershipTCPoliticalBetting said:When a party clarifies that it is not for something that a large part of its supporters think it is for, it is a good way of driving down its support.
"In a sign that Labour’s arguments are not cutting through to the mainstream, it revealed that a group of undecided working-class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the party was for leaving the EU
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/30/labour-voters-in-the-dark-about-partys-stance-on-brexit-research-says
1) There are many Northern and especially Midland seats where the WWC form a majority of the voters. 'A few' could turn into 'a few thousand'
2) The Tory/Labour marginals are mostly midland and more Northerly now - how are Labour ever going to win them back if they see their WWC backing in these seats disappear.
Sometimes electoral speculation benefits from looking at the realities on the ground, not the polls - which are frankly less and less useful anyway.
2) I never said Corbyn would win any new voters, just the Tories lose them. As long as Corbyn/Mcdonnell lead Labour the most likely outcome in 2020 is the Tories lose seats because of UKIP but are still largest party in a hung parliament, much like 2005 in reverse with the LDs replaced by UKIP as the party of protest (Labour lost 42 seats at that election only holding their majority due to their 2001 landslide)0 -
Spot on with your post earlier Mr Blackburn on Cameron,the sooner the Tories get rid the better.blackburn63 said:
I guess that's the point, he referred to Khan's religion for political reasons, a million miles from the recent tone. So what, Khan is a Muslim - who cares, I don't. I was derided on here for having a go at Cameron when he turned up in Gravesend wearing orange head gear, the man is a total fraud.NickPalmer said:
There is a certain rather undesirable consistency there (I'm not sure it's hypocrisy) - he clearly thinks of Khan primarily as a Muslim. Khan seems to me well balanced on it - yes, I'm various things, inter alia a Muslim, thanks for your interest. He's appropriately concerned about some aspects - isolating extremists, getting rid of glass ceilings - but he clearly doesn't wake up each morning and think "What can I do for Islam today?"blackburn63 said:I think I've mentioned before I dislike Cameron, can't remember, yesterday was another example of how he'll prostitute himself to anybody. A couple of weeks after slagging him off and encouraging pictures of bombed double deckers, he called Khan "a proud muslim". Perhaps he'll call Gerry Adams "a proud catholic" or Ed "a proud jew". Identity politics at its worst, a desperate, duplicitous PM prepared to say anything, yes anything, to meet his own ends.
He makes Blair look principled and sincere.
Cameron, however, seems to think either "Ooh, there's a Muslim, maybe he's an extremist", or alternatively "Ah, here's a moderate Muslim, that's great". It makes life unnecessarily difficult for people who don't see religion as the dominant force in their lives - which, I'd argue, sane people should not. I live in a multicultural area, and the whole point of it is that we just get on with each other and treat people as individuals.
I was taken in by cameron(more fool me but never voted for him at least)and on here defended him from the left/labour posters from being a salesman,a fraud or likening to reptiles.
Can I apologise to the right and left of politics that for years already knew what Cameron was,must be hard for half his MP's watching this man for the last month.0 -
He could well pull a Nader and run 3rd partysurbiton said:
He is into personal glorification now.Alistair said:
I think she's lookin to kill Sanders off once and for all to get him to stop with his sabotage of the democratic party.peter_from_putney said:"Clinton has cancelled a day of campaigning in NJ this week and will instead return to California for 5 days ahead of the June 7 primary."
Says it all really.0 -
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Bill Kristol is already planning to run an independent RepublicanAlistair said:
He could well pull a Nader and run 3rd partysurbiton said:
He is into personal glorification now.Alistair said:
I think she's lookin to kill Sanders off once and for all to get him to stop with his sabotage of the democratic party.peter_from_putney said:"Clinton has cancelled a day of campaigning in NJ this week and will instead return to California for 5 days ahead of the June 7 primary."
Says it all really.
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#Leave will not give us more control over our lives, you sillies, it will give it to people like Boris and Gove. That's why they want out - so they have more power themselves.0
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Bill Kristol talks too much and acts too little on this particular topic. He might endorse the Libertarian candidate as the Libertarian party will be on the ballot in all 50 states. But I simply don't see a third party run happening now beyond Sanders on a vanity trip.HYUFD said:
Bill Kristol is already planning to run an independent RepublicanAlistair said:
He could well pull a Nader and run 3rd partysurbiton said:
He is into personal glorification now.Alistair said:
I think she's lookin to kill Sanders off once and for all to get him to stop with his sabotage of the democratic party.peter_from_putney said:"Clinton has cancelled a day of campaigning in NJ this week and will instead return to California for 5 days ahead of the June 7 primary."
Says it all really.0 -
Kristol has a lot of influence and has been talking to Romney, I would not completely rule out a libertarian, an independent Republican and Sanders runningAlistair said:
Bill Kristol talks too much and acts too little on this particular topic. He might endorse the Libertarian candidate as the Libertarian party will be on the ballot in all 50 states. But I simply don't see a third party run happening now beyond Sanders on a vanity trip.HYUFD said:
Bill Kristol is already planning to run an independent RepublicanAlistair said:
He could well pull a Nader and run 3rd partysurbiton said:
He is into personal glorification now.Alistair said:
I think she's lookin to kill Sanders off once and for all to get him to stop with his sabotage of the democratic party.peter_from_putney said:"Clinton has cancelled a day of campaigning in NJ this week and will instead return to California for 5 days ahead of the June 7 primary."
Says it all really.0 -
Wasn't MrsB a former lid dem councillor ? If so,by the post she posted,a poor one indeed.john_zims said:@MrsB
'Leave will not give us more control over our lives, you sillies, it will give it to people like Boris and Gove. That's why they want out - so they have more power themselves. '
But unlike the EU we can get rid of Boris & Gove,it's that silly thing called democracy.0 -
Eagles, I think you could delete the words "If she wasn't (sic) facing Trump in November," from your header article.0
