6.60 for 45-50% 3.65 for 50-55% 3.00 for 55-60% 6.20 for 60-65% 25.0 for 65-70% 48.0 for over 70%
Value in the higher turnouts? Surely it will be 60% or more after another three weeks of this, or by then will people be interested only in the football?
Those are not the turnout odds that I see. Do you have the Remain vote band odds there perhaps?
Oh Crap. Mods please delete my post!
It's a shame though. I would have been tempted by some of those odds!!!
Spread betting question: how small can you make the stakes?
I was just musing about maybe small bets in the future on F1, but I don't have the cash to risk substantial sums. [Mr. Putney once or twice asked about the spreads and I was perhaps 60/40 right in my guesses].
The Gorilla fiasco is leading to predictable reactions. Social media at its worst. Would those people calling for sanctions against the zoo feel the same if it was their son in the enclosure?
And knowing a tranquiliser dart won't act immediately, but would certainly antagonise the animal, what other option did the zoo have? Congratulations to the sharpshooter.
Yes, the parents bear some responsibility, but the child needed to be saved. The zoo made the only decision possible.
Best wishes to Messrs W and K.
Personally I'm a bigger fan of gorillas than children
5.80 for under-55% 5.20 for 55-60% 3.90 for 60-65% 5.60 for 65-70% 7.80 for 70-75% 16.5 for 75-80% 34.0 for 80% or over
Value in the higher turnouts? Surely it will be 65% or more after another three weeks of this, or by then will people be interested only in the football?
Given May's close identification with immigration, is she really a viable leadership candidate? She has clearly failed utterly.
The border force is a real problem. Albanians rocking up in Rye harbour in the small hours has changed the game. Reports on Sky that French skippers are making £1k per person - rubber dingies towed halfway in Channel and left to finish under own power. Apparently such craft can only manage an hour or two before taking on water.
But May has been failing for years. It's not a recent phenomoenon
She has, I've generally given her a pass as HO is total hospital pass of a job - and courts have thwarted her.
iirc Theresa May is about to "reform" the fire brigade, which one imagines is a euphemism for cuts. This might prove unpopular since most people who are not Labour or Conservative SpAds (see hospital and school reforms passim) understand that distance matters. It is not enough to say the county of X has only enough fires to justify a dozen stations: most voters will understand that fire engines' journey times are crucial.
Boris this, EURef that. But, where do we stand on gorilla-gate?
Sounds to me that the gorilla was better at childcare than the parents.
The following is doing the rounds on Facebook this morning:
Police are investigating the parents of the 4 year old child who fell into the gorilla enclosure in a Cincinatti Zoo which resulted in Zoo officials killing the gorilla. Gonna do the parents for neglect.
Funny...I recall 2 parents who left their children alone in a hotel room in Portugal which resulted in a child going missing and they weren't done for neglect.
The best policies for our nation don’t always fit into a tidy sound bite, and a candidate’s words inevitably get distorted by the media frenzy that surrounds presidential races. So let me take a moment to set the record straight once and for all and be completely honest with you about where I stand on the issues: I strongly and firmly believe all the same things you believe.
5.80 for under-55% 5.20 for 55-60% 3.90 for 60-65% 5.60 for 65-70% 7.80 for 70-75% 16.5 for 75-80% 34.0 for 80% or over
Value in the higher turnouts? Surely it will be 65% or more after another three weeks of this, or by then will people be interested only in the football?
Well, possibly. I'm not sure this style of campaigning encourages turnout though.
The Gorilla fiasco is leading to predictable reactions. Social media at its worst. Would those people calling for sanctions against the zoo feel the same if it was their son in the enclosure?
And knowing a tranquiliser dart won't act immediately, but would certainly antagonise the animal, what other option did the zoo have? Congratulations to the sharpshooter.
Yes, the parents bear some responsibility, but the child needed to be saved. The zoo made the only decision possible.
Best wishes to Messrs W and K.
Personally I'm a bigger fan of gorillas than children
I'm generally allergic to children.
You were a child once. Probably an unpleasant one on occasion, no matter how nice a person you are now.
From skim-reading the pressing stories of the weekend, it seems that much heartache could have been avoided if Chris Evans had been put in a cage in a Cincinnati zoo and a gorilla had been filmed driving a car.
Given May's close identification with immigration, is she really a viable leadership candidate? She has clearly failed utterly.
The border force is a real problem. Albanians rocking up in Rye harbour in the small hours has changed the game. Reports on Sky that French skippers are making £1k per person - rubber dingies towed halfway in Channel and left to finish under own power. Apparently such craft can only manage an hour or two before taking on water.
But May has been failing for years. It's not a recent phenomoenon
She has, I've generally given her a pass as HO is total hospital pass of a job - and courts have thwarted her.
iirc Theresa May is about to "reform" the fire brigade, which one imagines is a euphemism for cuts. This might prove unpopular since most people who are not Labour or Conservative SpAds (see hospital and school reforms passim) understand that distance matters. It is not enough to say the county of X has only enough fires to justify a dozen stations: most voters will understand that fire engines' journey times are crucial.
As I understand, there’s some sort of merger with the ambulance service in places.
Miss Plato, I do like Queen but some of May's comments are a bit off the wall.
On the trial point: some animal rights enthusiasts tried to get certain animals (chimps, I think) covered by human rights a few years ago. Of course, that would presumably mean the chimps would also have to get jobs and obey the law.
I think there is a case for enhanced rights for particularly intelligent animals, but equality is just crackers.
If the gorilla had killed the child, would May want it on trial for murder?
Miss Plato, I do like Queen but some of May's comments are a bit off the wall.
On the trial point: some animal rights enthusiasts tried to get certain animals (chimps, I think) covered by human rights a few years ago. Of course, that would presumably mean the chimps would also have to get jobs and obey the law.
I think there is a case for enhanced rights for particularly intelligent animals, but equality is just crackers.
If the gorilla had killed the child, would May want it on trial for murder?
A child fell/got into a gorilla enclosure in Jersey some years ago and one of inmates protected it from the others until keepers could retrieve it. IIRC.
The Gorilla fiasco is leading to predictable reactions. Social media at its worst. Would those people calling for sanctions against the zoo feel the same if it was their son in the enclosure?
And knowing a tranquiliser dart won't act immediately, but would certainly antagonise the animal, what other option did the zoo have? Congratulations to the sharpshooter.
Yes, the parents bear some responsibility, but the child needed to be saved. The zoo made the only decision possible.
Best wishes to Messrs W and K.
Personally I'm a bigger fan of gorillas than children
I'm generally allergic to children.
You were a child once. Probably an unpleasant one on occasion, no matter how nice a person you are now.
I was 'a proper little madam' and 'a worky ticket'
Do parents still use expressions like this? If I was hurt, I was 'a wounded little soldier'.
Given May's close identification with immigration, is she really a viable leadership candidate? She has clearly failed utterly.
The border force is a real problem. Albanians rocking up in Rye harbour in the small hours has changed the game. Reports on Sky that French skippers are making £1k per person - rubber dingies towed halfway in Channel and left to finish under own power. Apparently such craft can only manage an hour or two before taking on water.
But May has been failing for years. It's not a recent phenomoenon
She has, I've generally given her a pass as HO is total hospital pass of a job - and courts have thwarted her.
iirc Theresa May is about to "reform" the fire brigade, which one imagines is a euphemism for cuts. This might prove unpopular since most people who are not Labour or Conservative SpAds (see hospital and school reforms passim) understand that distance matters. It is not enough to say the county of X has only enough fires to justify a dozen stations: most voters will understand that fire engines' journey times are crucial.
I would expects "reform" to mean cuts to frontline service combined with more expenditure on equality and diversity.
Given May's close identification with immigration, is she really a viable leadership candidate? She has clearly failed utterly.
The border force is a real problem. Albanians rocking up in Rye harbour in the small hours has changed the game. Reports on Sky that French skippers are making £1k per person - rubber dingies towed halfway in Channel and left to finish under own power. Apparently such craft can only manage an hour or two before taking on water.
But May has been failing for years. It's not a recent phenomoenon
She has, I've generally given her a pass as HO is total hospital pass of a job - and courts have thwarted her.
I understand sticking to a script in an interview is a tactic, but I can not recall May being good at thinking on her feet.
Just seen Michael Gove on the box, arguing that if we left the EU we could reduce the VAT on fuel. Interviewer pressed on “would" and he said that would be up to government of the day. Hen went on to say what an unfair tax VAT was.
As I recall, he is part of a government which not only increased VAT but has shown has shown very little inclination to reduce it, apart from on in one particular “attractive” area.
The Gorilla fiasco is leading to predictable reactions. Social media at its worst. Would those people calling for sanctions against the zoo feel the same if it was their son in the enclosure?
And knowing a tranquiliser dart won't act immediately, but would certainly antagonise the animal, what other option did the zoo have? Congratulations to the sharpshooter.
Yes, the parents bear some responsibility, but the child needed to be saved. The zoo made the only decision possible.
Best wishes to Messrs W and K.
Personally I'm a bigger fan of gorillas than children
I'm generally allergic to children.
You were a child once. Probably an unpleasant one on occasion, no matter how nice a person you are now.
I was 'a proper little madam' and 'a worky ticket'
Do parents still use expressions like this? If I was hurt, I was 'a wounded little soldier'.
5.80 for under-55% 5.20 for 55-60% 3.90 for 60-65% 5.60 for 65-70% 7.80 for 70-75% 16.5 for 75-80% 34.0 for 80% or over
Value in the higher turnouts? Surely it will be 65% or more after another three weeks of this, or by then will people be interested only in the football?
The last EU referendum had a significantly lower turnout than a GE. It is a mistake to assume that the public has the same enthusiasm for the issue as PB or the factions of the Tory party.
55-60% for me , though I recall Jacks ARSE was at 65% on its last showing. I hope that we get a further ARSE4EU before the day.
Just seen Michael Gove on the box, arguing that if we left the EU we could reduce the VAT on fuel. Interviewer pressed on “would" and he said that would be up to government of the day. Hen went on to say what an unfair tax VAT was.
As I recall, he is part of a government which not only increased VAT but has shown has shown very little inclination to reduce it, apart from on in one particular “attractive” area.
At least it's good to have some practical examples, rather than abstract discussions around 'Sovereignty' which go straight over the heads of most people. VAT on fuel, tampons and anything else considered essential by most is a good example to use.
I remember the Students' Union campaign about VAT on tampons when I was studying 20 years ago, that's how long this has been an issue. They delivered a petition to a young Mr Blair within weeks of him getting the top job.
Just seen Michael Gove on the box, arguing that if we left the EU we could reduce the VAT on fuel. Interviewer pressed on “would" and he said that would be up to government of the day. Hen went on to say what an unfair tax VAT was.
As I recall, he is part of a government which not only increased VAT but has shown has shown very little inclination to reduce it, apart from on in one particular “attractive” area.
The point is that if we vote OUT we can then elect a government that will abolish VAT on fuel if this lot dont.
If we stay in then, no matter who is elected, we cant change it.
I recall Ken Clarke imposed it at 17.5% to widespread outrage during the Major government, and new Labour tried to abolish it but the EU would not let them, so they cut it to 5%, the minimum the EU would allow.
It is instructive that Vote Leave have kept their powder dry on this one up to now. It was after all a row over tax levied by unelected officials overseas that caused the American war of independence.
Labour cllr who called Israel a'terrorist state'& was married to 2women at the same time is appointed equality chief https://t.co/qUWk5kZzTC
The Mail's actual quotation has him specifying "this Israeli government" as opposed to Israel or Israeli governments in general. Since Israel, almost uniquely in the region, is a democracy, Israeli citizens are free to criticise and even vote against *this* Israeli government without being thought anti-semitic. The Mail may be reaching a bit here, and is also careful to add (maybe at the libel lawyers' insistence) that Zaffar is not shown chanting. If Zaffar is anti-semitic (or misogynist) then he should be removed but so far the Mail has served us pretty thin gruel.
Given May's close identification with immigration, is she really a viable leadership candidate? She has clearly failed utterly.
The border force is a real problem. Albanians rocking up in Rye harbour in the small hours has changed the game. Reports on Sky that French skippers are making £1k per person - rubber dingies towed halfway in Channel and left to finish under own power. Apparently such craft can only manage an hour or two before taking on water.
But May has been failing for years. It's not a recent phenomoenon
She has, I've generally given her a pass as HO is total hospital pass of a job - and courts have thwarted her.
iirc Theresa May is about to "reform" the fire brigade, which one imagines is a euphemism for cuts. This might prove unpopular since most people who are not Labour or Conservative SpAds (see hospital and school reforms passim) understand that distance matters. It is not enough to say the county of X has only enough fires to justify a dozen stations: most voters will understand that fire engines' journey times are crucial.
I would expects "reform" to mean cuts to frontline service combined with more expenditure on equality and diversity.
Sums up how our new esablishment is so out of touch. The whole equality and diversity circus is something else we cant repeal and get rid of while we are in the EU
Just seen Michael Gove on the box, arguing that if we left the EU we could reduce the VAT on fuel. Interviewer pressed on “would" and he said that would be up to government of the day. Hen went on to say what an unfair tax VAT was.
As I recall, he is part of a government which not only increased VAT but has shown has shown very little inclination to reduce it, apart from on in one particular “attractive” area.
Leave are making big promises - major falls in immigration, no VAT on fuel, more spending on the NHS, smaller classroom sizes. Voters will be forgiven for expecting a bonanza once they vote for Brexit. What surprises me is that these right wing Tories have not yet mentioned what they would actually want to do with extra income - reduce taxes for the best off. Neither have they explained how we will avoid the reduced government tax take that most people expect following Brexit and that would render all spending promises irrelevant.
Given May's close identification with immigration, is she really a viable leadership candidate? She has clearly failed utterly.
The border force is a real problem. Albanians rocking up in Rye harbour in the small hours has changed the game. Reports on Sky that French skippers are making £1k per person - rubber dingies towed halfway in Channel and left to finish under own power. Apparently such craft can only manage an hour or two before taking on water.
But May has been failing for years. It's not a recent phenomoenon
She has, I've generally given her a pass as HO is total hospital pass of a job - and courts have thwarted her.
iirc Theresa May is about to "reform" the fire brigade, which one imagines is a euphemism for cuts. This might prove unpopular since most people who are not Labour or Conservative SpAds (see hospital and school reforms passim) understand that distance matters. It is not enough to say the county of X has only enough fires to justify a dozen stations: most voters will understand that fire engines' journey times are crucial.
I would expects "reform" to mean cuts to frontline service combined with more expenditure on equality and diversity.
Sums up why our new esablishment is so out of touch. The whole equality and diversity circus is something else we cant repeal and get rid of while we are in the EU
Just seen Michael Gove on the box, arguing that if we left the EU we could reduce the VAT on fuel. Interviewer pressed on “would" and he said that would be up to government of the day. Hen went on to say what an unfair tax VAT was.
As I recall, he is part of a government which not only increased VAT but has shown has shown very little inclination to reduce it, apart from on in one particular “attractive” area.
Leave are making big promises - major falls in immigration, no VAT on fuel, more spending on the NHS, smaller classroom sizes. Voters will be forgiven for expecting a bonanza once they vote for Brexit. What surprises me is that these right wing Tories have not yet mentioned what they would actually want to do with extra income - reduce taxes for the best off. Neither have they explained how we will avoid the reduced government tax take that most people expect following Brexit and that would render all spending promises irrelevant.
5.80 for under-55% 5.20 for 55-60% 3.90 for 60-65% 5.60 for 65-70% 7.80 for 70-75% 16.5 for 75-80% 34.0 for 80% or over
Value in the higher turnouts? Surely it will be 65% or more after another three weeks of this, or by then will people be interested only in the football?
The last EU referendum had a significantly lower turnout than a GE. It is a mistake to assume that the public has the same enthusiasm for the issue as PB or the factions of the Tory party.
55-60% for me , though I recall Jacks ARSE was at 65% on its last showing. I hope that we get a further ARSE4EU before the day.
Thanks for that reply. As you say it's difficult to get a feeling for the salience of an issue, especially when 3,500 miles away from it and getting news from places that see the referendum as the biggest story of the year!
1975 turnout was 65%, and the last GE was 66%, assuming Wiki is correct. Scotland was highest (over 80%) and AV lowest (under 55%).
To me the biggest factor is the usual Labour voters and if they turn out or not. In London they will, but elsewhere I'm not too sure.
Given May's close identification with immigration, is she really a viable leadership candidate? She has clearly failed utterly.
The border force is a real problem. Albanians rocking up in Rye harbour in the small hours has changed the game. Reports on Sky that French skippers are making £1k per person - rubber dingies towed halfway in Channel and left to finish under own power. Apparently such craft can only manage an hour or two before taking on water.
But May has been failing for years. It's not a recent phenomoenon
She has, I've generally given her a pass as HO is total hospital pass of a job - and courts have thwarted her.
iirc Theresa May is about to "reform" the fire brigade, which one imagines is a euphemism for cuts. This might prove unpopular since most people who are not Labour or Conservative SpAds (see hospital and school reforms passim) understand that distance matters. It is not enough to say the county of X has only enough fires to justify a dozen stations: most voters will understand that fire engines' journey times are crucial.
I would expects "reform" to mean cuts to frontline service combined with more expenditure on equality and diversity.
Sums up how our new esablishment is so out of touch. The whole equality and diversity circus is something else we cant repeal and get rid of while we are in the EU
That's not something you can blame the EU for. This is an area where the government gold-plates everything that arrives from Brussels.
That's not something you can blame the EU for. This is an area where the government gold-plates everything that arrives from Brussels.
The issue is the quality and nature of our political class. They see the world through Westminster eyes. The day to day worries of the man in the street feature well below the issues of the day in the bubble. I'm definitely voting Leave on the 23rd and one reason among others is simply to stick one in the eye of the establishment and remind them who it is (at least in theory) that they work for.
I can see a clear need for Captain Mainwaring and his boys to protect our coastline from illegal invaders. Then ID cards to help root out the illegal aliens.
ON topic (vaguely), the truth remains the GOP won't win California and they'll lose it heavily and in a proportional race, Clinton will likely pick up as many delegates as Sanders so it's only the symbolism of the result itself.
I tend to avoid two-horse events on the racecourse and it's tempting to do so beyond the confines of Sandown, Goodwood or Newmarket. Clearly, IF the poll showing Clinton only 2% is correct, Sanders is value at 4/1but there have been one or two other states where Sanders has looked to come close but failed (notably but not exclusively states won in the General Election by the GOP), I suspect the machine ground game will keep her in front.
It's a bet to take and trade off in all honesty.
I'm afraid unlike some on here I don't "get" Trump and apart from an outlet for anger for parts of American society, he has nothing to offer the country or the world. The pro-Trump elements seem willing to forget his many policy inconsistencies and changes while trawling the news archives for any grainy footage which they can use to undermine Clinton.
I'm afraid that's politics in the Stupid Ages - anything you have ever said or written is recorded, accessed and can be used against you at any time in your life to make a point.
From skim-reading the pressing stories of the weekend, it seems that much heartache could have been avoided if Chris Evans had been put in a cage in a Cincinnati zoo and a gorilla had been filmed driving a car.
Spread betting question: how small can you make the stakes?
I was just musing about maybe small bets in the future on F1, but I don't have the cash to risk substantial sums. [Mr. Putney once or twice asked about the spreads and I was perhaps 60/40 right in my guesses].
Sporting Index minimum stake is normally 10p (5p in some special cases) but remember, your win or loss is the stake multiplied by the spread
If you buy England test runs @ 100 for 10p and he is out for duck that has cost you a tenner
Most markets have a stop on them, so you can predict what your maximum loss would be.
Just seen Michael Gove on the box, arguing that if we left the EU we could reduce the VAT on fuel. Interviewer pressed on “would" and he said that would be up to government of the day. Hen went on to say what an unfair tax VAT was.
As I recall, he is part of a government which not only increased VAT but has shown has shown very little inclination to reduce it, apart from on in one particular “attractive” area.
Leave are making big promises - major falls in immigration, no VAT on fuel, more spending on the NHS, smaller classroom sizes. Voters will be forgiven for expecting a bonanza once they vote for Brexit. What surprises me is that these right wing Tories have not yet mentioned what they would actually want to do with extra income - reduce taxes for the best off. Neither have they explained how we will avoid the reduced government tax take that most people expect following Brexit and that would render all spending promises irrelevant.
Yes and then when Leave wins and no sane government does any of those things, Gove et al can say: "nothing to do with us, guv."
Those kind of stakes (bearing in mind, as you say, the potential for huge multiples of success or failure) seem appealing.
I might try putting some of the cash from the Verstappen bet into a new spread account. But that'll be for the 2017 F1 season, so I'll wait and see how much I make/lose during the rest of the 2016 F1 season.
Top Gear - something else I don't care about at all. Never watched the old show, haven't watched the new one.
An interesting ORB poll last night - was the previous an outlier ? Maybe but there has been a sense of movement toward LEAVE in the last few days but there are three weeks until the majority of votes are to be cast and this is far from over.
"Obsessed with the idea of instant and total integration, we failed to notice that ordinary people, the citizens of Europe, do not share our Euro-enthusiasm. Disillusioned with the great visions of the future, they demand that we cope with the present reality better than we have been doing until now," he added.
5.80 for under-55% 5.20 for 55-60% 3.90 for 60-65% 5.60 for 65-70% 7.80 for 70-75% 16.5 for 75-80% 34.0 for 80% or over
Value in the higher turnouts? Surely it will be 65% or more after another three weeks of this, or by then will people be interested only in the football?
The last EU referendum had a significantly lower turnout than a GE. It is a mistake to assume that the public has the same enthusiasm for the issue as PB or the factions of the Tory party.
55-60% for me , though I recall Jacks ARSE was at 65% on its last showing. I hope that we get a further ARSE4EU before the day.
Thanks for that reply. As you say it's difficult to get a feeling for the salience of an issue, especially when 3,500 miles away from it and getting news from places that see the referendum as the biggest story of the year!
1975 turnout was 65%, and the last GE was 66%, assuming Wiki is correct. Scotland was highest (over 80%) and AV lowest (under 55%).
To me the biggest factor is the usual Labour voters and if they turn out or not. In London they will, but elsewhere I'm not too sure.
The two major bookies making a market on the turnout, Ladbrokes and Corals, are both pitching at around the 63%-64% mark (as was JackW in his most recent projection). They are not usually far wrong, although I see it as being either side of 60%, say 58% - 62%.
I think I've mentioned before I dislike Cameron, can't remember, yesterday was another example of how he'll prostitute himself to anybody. A couple of weeks after slagging him off and encouraging pictures of bombed double deckers, he called Khan "a proud muslim". Perhaps he'll call Gerry Adams "a proud catholic" or Ed "a proud jew". Identity politics at its worst, a desperate, duplicitous PM prepared to say anything, yes anything, to meet his own ends.
He makes Blair look principled and sincere.
There is a certain rather undesirable consistency there (I'm not sure it's hypocrisy) - he clearly thinks of Khan primarily as a Muslim. Khan seems to me well balanced on it - yes, I'm various things, inter alia a Muslim, thanks for your interest. He's appropriately concerned about some aspects - isolating extremists, getting rid of glass ceilings - but he clearly doesn't wake up each morning and think "What can I do for Islam today?"
Cameron, however, seems to think either "Ooh, there's a Muslim, maybe he's an extremist", or alternatively "Ah, here's a moderate Muslim, that's great". It makes life unnecessarily difficult for people who don't see religion as the dominant force in their lives - which, I'd argue, sane people should not. I live in a multicultural area, and the whole point of it is that we just get on with each other and treat people as individuals.
That's not something you can blame the EU for. This is an area where the government gold-plates everything that arrives from Brussels.
The issue is the quality and nature of our political class. They see the world through Westminster eyes. The day to day worries of the man in the street feature well below the issues of the day in the bubble. I'm definitely voting Leave on the 23rd and one reason among others is simply to stick one in the eye of the establishment and remind them who it is (at least in theory) that they work for.
Patrick, I am also voting Leave despite being for Remain , just because it is against the lying cheating two faced PM. He needs to be tarred and feathered and run out of town.
Following JackW's missive, I have to tell all that I have a raging flu that is now entering it's third day.
Sounds like we're dropping like flies @PB.COM at the moment... Get well soon K.
Good morning GIN, all well and sunny here in southwest Scotland.
Morning Malc.
It's windy and dull where I am in eastern England. Torrential rain not far away...
I'm well but getting concerned that if I spend too long on here I might "drop" so I'm logging off while I can, lol! iley:
Just a pity that I am back at work has been pleasant sitting out in the sun over the weekend, with a cold refreshment or two. Garden is in tip top condition.
Top Gear - something else I don't care about at all. Never watched the old show, haven't watched the new one.
An interesting ORB poll last night - was the previous an outlier ? Maybe but there has been a sense of movement toward LEAVE in the last few days but there are three weeks until the majority of votes are to be cast and this is far from over.
ORB has generally shown narrow leads, so I'd say it's an outlier. I agree with CR and TSE that at this point, people want to fire a warning shot, rather than push the button.
It is instructive that Vote Leave have kept their powder dry on this one up to now. It was after all a row over tax levied by unelected officials overseas that caused the American war of independence. No taxation without representation.
But we do have representation at EU level, Mr Bedfordshire. The problem is that in the European Parliament we are represented by UKIP MEPs, who are conspicuous mainly by their absence.
And at the Council level we have UK ministers, who just use the EU to explain away their implementing unpopular policies that they want to impose on us anyway.
And of course we do also have some political leaders who are so useless that they could not negotiate their way out of a paper bag. Everybody recognises that now.
If Sanders beats H. Clinton in `California, even by a whisker, she is cold meat.
Sanders will be mush in The Donald's jaws if he is the nominee.
So who else from the Democrats could jump in to save the wreck of a campaign? There is still five months campaigning weather between June 7th and Nov 4th.
no one. hillary will be the candidate unless the fbi move in.
Erm, the FBI already has moved in and is in fact broadening its investigations.
The woman is prima facie guilty of Espionage and Racketeering.
The most likely outcome is she cuts a deal with Obama (who loathes her and her husband) to step down in exchange for a plea bargain/pardon. Biden/Kerry lead the Dems to honourable defeat in November...
It is instructive that Vote Leave have kept their powder dry on this one up to now. It was after all a row over tax levied by unelected officials overseas that caused the American war of independence. No taxation without representation.
But we do have representation at EU level, Mr Bedfordshire. The problem is that in the European Parliament we are represented by UKIP MEPs, who are conspicuous mainly by their absence.
And at the Council level we have UK ministers, who just use the EU to explain away their implementing unpopular policies that they want to impose on us anyway.
And of course we do also have some political leaders who are so useless that they could not negotiate their way out of a paper bag. Everybody recognises that now.
None of these are the fault of the EU.
Correction, they couldn't negotiate their way out of a wet paper bag!
I am a dunce when it comes to understanding betting.Can one fo you kind guys tell me if Remain now" matched at 1.32 "is good or bad for them please?
It means they are odds on to win, so it is good for them.
Not necessarily. If their odds are lengthening , ie they were much higher odds on previously , then it is not good for them. I believe they were at 1/6 at one point and now 1/3 so not good news if that is the case , even if they are still favourites.
It is instructive that Vote Leave have kept their powder dry on this one up to now. It was after all a row over tax levied by unelected officials overseas that caused the American war of independence. No taxation without representation.
But we do have representation at EU level, Mr Bedfordshire. The problem is that in the European Parliament we are represented by UKIP MEPs, who are conspicuous mainly by their absence.
And at the Council level we have UK ministers, who just use the EU to explain away their implementing unpopular policies that they want to impose on us anyway.
And of course we do also have some political leaders who are so useless that they could not negotiate their way out of a paper bag. Everybody recognises that now.
None of these are the fault of the EU.
Thanks to Cameron the conservative MEPs are also allied with various baltic fruitcakes and loonies in the European Parliament, if I recall correctly?
I am a dunce when it comes to understanding betting.Can one fo you kind guys tell me if Remain now" matched at 1.32 "is good or bad for them please?
It means they are odds on to win, so it is good for them.
Not necessarily. If their odds are lengthening , ie they were much higher odds on previously , then it is not good for them. I believe they were at 1/6 at one point and now 1/3 so not good news if that is the case , even if they are still favourites.
Agreed, but they are still heavy favourites in a two horse race.
Those kind of stakes (bearing in mind, as you say, the potential for huge multiples of success or failure) seem appealing.
I might try putting some of the cash from the Verstappen bet into a new spread account. But that'll be for the 2017 F1 season, so I'll wait and see how much I make/lose during the rest of the 2016 F1 season.
Morris ..... you obviously have a hunch about the longer term, i.e. the 2017 season - are you prepared to give us a clue as to your thinking?
I trust that those who poured scorn on me when I suggested a few months ago that migrants could try to make their way across the Channel in makeshift boats are now going to apologise to me?
I didn't pass scorn - but very prescient. - Just remember those who fell on June 5th and 6th 1944 going the other way.
Mr. Putney, ha, I don't (honestly), but I do occasionally muse on such things. My financial situation doesn't permit me the disposable income others here enjoy, but (even with a tiny sum) the fortunate Spanish result means I may have a bit to try spread betting.
The regulation changes next year may afford opportunity.
Following JackW's missive, I have to tell all that I have a raging flu that is now entering it's third day.
Sounds like we're dropping like flies @PB.COM at the moment... Get well soon K.
Good morning GIN, all well and sunny here in southwest Scotland.
Morning Malc.
It's windy and dull where I am in eastern England. Torrential rain not far away...
I'm well but getting concerned that if I spend too long on here I might "drop" so I'm logging off while I can, lol!
I suspect you are to the West of me then, Mr G. It tipped down here during the night and earlier this morning, but things seem to be drying up now. Malc, a friend reported that it was up to 30deg C in the Ft. William area a week or so ago.
I think I've mentioned before I dislike Cameron, can't remember, yesterday was another example of how he'll prostitute himself to anybody. A couple of weeks after slagging him off and encouraging pictures of bombed double deckers, he called Khan "a proud muslim". Perhaps he'll call Gerry Adams "a proud catholic" or Ed "a proud jew". Identity politics at its worst, a desperate, duplicitous PM prepared to say anything, yes anything, to meet his own ends.
He makes Blair look principled and sincere.
There is a certain rather undesirable consistency there (I'm not sure it's hypocrisy) - he clearly thinks of Khan primarily as a Muslim. Khan seems to me well balanced on it - yes, I'm various things, inter alia a Muslim, thanks for your interest. He's appropriately concerned about some aspects - isolating extremists, getting rid of glass ceilings - but he clearly doesn't wake up each morning and think "What can I do for Islam today?"
Cameron, however, seems to think either "Ooh, there's a Muslim, maybe he's an extremist", or alternatively "Ah, here's a moderate Muslim, that's great". It makes life unnecessarily difficult for people who don't see religion as the dominant force in their lives - which, I'd argue, sane people should not. I live in a multicultural area, and the whole point of it is that we just get on with each other and treat people as individuals.
I have been one of the fiercest critics of Khan. But based on what I have seen so far as Mayor he seems to have started well.
I am no fan of identity politics but I do take the point you made a while back that it is valuable to have good role models. I hope that Khan does prove to be a good role model for Muslims and non-Muslims alike.
If Sanders beats H. Clinton in `California, even by a whisker, she is cold meat.
Sanders will be mush in The Donald's jaws if he is the nominee.
So who else from the Democrats could jump in to save the wreck of a campaign? There is still five months campaigning weather between June 7th and Nov 4th.
no one. hillary will be the candidate unless the fbi move in.
Erm, the FBI already has moved in and is in fact broadening its investigations.
The woman is prima facie guilty of Espionage and Racketeering.
The most likely outcome is she cuts a deal with Obama (who loathes her and her husband) to step down in exchange for a plea bargain/pardon. Biden/Kerry lead the Dems to honourable defeat in November...
Most likely in the sense that it is not at all likely.
I'm old enough and ugly enough to remember you banging on about Obama's birth certificate last time around. Emailers are the new birthers.
Just like last time, they won't help your man win.
Top Gear - something else I don't care about at all. Never watched the old show, haven't watched the new one.
An interesting ORB poll last night - was the previous an outlier ? Maybe but there has been a sense of movement toward LEAVE in the last few days but there are three weeks until the majority of votes are to be cast and this is far from over.
ORB has generally shown narrow leads, so I'd say it's an outlier. I agree with CR and TSE that at this point, people want to fire a warning shot, rather than push the button.
Even if ORB's previous 13 point lead for REMAIN was an outlier, for this to shrink by a whopping 8% in just one week is fairly startling. Plus it's a phone poll which consistently show a better position for REMAIN than do online polls. The outcome looks pretty close to me and should other polls show a further closing of the gap over the next few days, that might well be the time to take the rapidly disappearing 4/1 odds against LEAVE winning. Meanwhile, those 3.65 odds (3.52 net) with Betfair on REMAIN winning between 50.0% - 55.0% of the vote (and thereby winning the referendum by between 0% - 10%) appear to offer reasonable value. DYOR.
There is a certain rather undesirable consistency there (I'm not sure it's hypocrisy) - he clearly thinks of Khan primarily as a Muslim. Khan seems to me well balanced on it - yes, I'm various things, inter alia a Muslim, thanks for your interest. He's appropriately concerned about some aspects - isolating extremists, getting rid of glass ceilings - but he clearly doesn't wake up each morning and think "What can I do for Islam today?"
Cameron, however, seems to think either "Ooh, there's a Muslim, maybe he's an extremist", or alternatively "Ah, here's a moderate Muslim, that's great". It makes life unnecessarily difficult for people who don't see religion as the dominant force in their lives - which, I'd argue, sane people should not. I live in a multicultural area, and the whole point of it is that we just get on with each other and treat people as individuals.
As always, Nick, an interesting observation.
Cameron is good at these seeming volte-faces. Three days before the 2010 GE, he was slagging off Nick Clegg and saying "no deals" yet the day after, it was fulsome praise and an "open offer of talks".
It's not like that, though. It's the rhetoric meeting the reality - whatever Cameron really thinks of Sadiq Khan is irrelevant - there are two factors, one Khan is Mayor of London and that makes him a significant political figure with whom he will have to deal and second, Khan is a supporter of REMAIN which is his side in his referendum.
It would have been absurd for Cameron NOT to have stood with Khan - the same is true of Khan. He is Mayor but Cameron is, for now, Prime Minister and the two have to establish a modus vivendi. IF REMAIN wins, Cameron may not feel he owes Khan a favour but it will make their future working relationship much more comfortable.
It's called politics and at the same time necessity which, as we know, makes strange bedfellows.
Thank you.my friend. I think I got that about right.
3/10 (1/3 in places) REMAIN 13/4 (3/1 and 16/5 in places) LEAVE
No on-course bookie would ever offer those prices - it would be more like 1/4 and 5/2 but there you go...
A good link to keep handy, decimal odds based around 2 seem unnecessarily confusing and I consider myself good at maths! I would have designed it based around 1 being evens, so priced at 0.33 and 3.2 rather than 1.33 and 4.2, with a switch around conversion of Y=1/X, much more elegant!
Comments
I was just musing about maybe small bets in the future on F1, but I don't have the cash to risk substantial sums. [Mr. Putney once or twice asked about the spreads and I was perhaps 60/40 right in my guesses].
Betfair turnout market: 5% increments, back prices.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.123293871
5.80 for under-55%
5.20 for 55-60%
3.90 for 60-65%
5.60 for 65-70%
7.80 for 70-75%
16.5 for 75-80%
34.0 for 80% or over
Value in the higher turnouts? Surely it will be 65% or more after another three weeks of this, or by then will people be interested only in the football?
Labour cllr who called Israel a'terrorist state'& was married to 2women at the same time is appointed equality chief https://t.co/qUWk5kZzTC
The best policies for our nation don’t always fit into a tidy sound bite, and a candidate’s words inevitably get distorted by the media frenzy that surrounds presidential races. So let me take a moment to set the record straight once and for all and be completely honest with you about where I stand on the issues: I strongly and firmly believe all the same things you believe.
http://www.theonion.com/blogpost/if-i-could-be-just-completely-honest-second-i-beli-52979
Dr Brian May
Why was this Gorilla murdered ? No trial - no reason. No excuse. Who will prosecute ? Bri https://t.co/g1baEqwojC
On the trial point: some animal rights enthusiasts tried to get certain animals (chimps, I think) covered by human rights a few years ago. Of course, that would presumably mean the chimps would also have to get jobs and obey the law.
I think there is a case for enhanced rights for particularly intelligent animals, but equality is just crackers.
If the gorilla had killed the child, would May want it on trial for murder?
IIRC.
Bit of a different case, must be said.
Do parents still use expressions like this? If I was hurt, I was 'a wounded little soldier'.
As I recall, he is part of a government which not only increased VAT but has shown has shown very little inclination to reduce it, apart from on in one particular “attractive” area.
55-60% for me , though I recall Jacks ARSE was at 65% on its last showing. I hope that we get a further ARSE4EU before the day.
Hopefully he and his ARSE will get better soon.
I remember the Students' Union campaign about VAT on tampons when I was studying 20 years ago, that's how long this has been an issue. They delivered a petition to a young Mr Blair within weeks of him getting the top job.
If we stay in then, no matter who is elected, we cant change it.
I recall Ken Clarke imposed it at 17.5% to widespread outrage during the Major government, and new Labour tried to abolish it but the EU would not let them, so they cut it to 5%, the minimum the EU would allow.
It is instructive that Vote Leave have kept their powder dry on this one up to now. It was after all a row over tax levied by unelected officials overseas that caused the American war of independence.
No taxation without representation.
1975 turnout was 65%, and the last GE was 66%, assuming Wiki is correct. Scotland was highest (over 80%) and AV lowest (under 55%).
To me the biggest factor is the usual Labour voters and if they turn out or not. In London they will, but elsewhere I'm not too sure.
That's not something you can blame the EU for. This is an area where the government gold-plates everything that arrives from Brussels.
The issue is the quality and nature of our political class. They see the world through Westminster eyes. The day to day worries of the man in the street feature well below the issues of the day in the bubble. I'm definitely voting Leave on the 23rd and one reason among others is simply to stick one in the eye of the establishment and remind them who it is (at least in theory) that they work for.
ON topic (vaguely), the truth remains the GOP won't win California and they'll lose it heavily and in a proportional race, Clinton will likely pick up as many delegates as Sanders so it's only the symbolism of the result itself.
I tend to avoid two-horse events on the racecourse and it's tempting to do so beyond the confines of Sandown, Goodwood or Newmarket. Clearly, IF the poll showing Clinton only 2% is correct, Sanders is value at 4/1but there have been one or two other states where Sanders has looked to come close but failed (notably but not exclusively states won in the General Election by the GOP), I suspect the machine ground game will keep her in front.
It's a bet to take and trade off in all honesty.
I'm afraid unlike some on here I don't "get" Trump and apart from an outlet for anger for parts of American society, he has nothing to offer the country or the world. The pro-Trump elements seem willing to forget his many policy inconsistencies and changes while trawling the news archives for any grainy footage which they can use to undermine Clinton.
I'm afraid that's politics in the Stupid Ages - anything you have ever said or written is recorded, accessed and can be used against you at any time in your life to make a point.
If you buy England test runs @ 100 for 10p and he is out for duck that has cost you a tenner
Most markets have a stop on them, so you can predict what your maximum loss would be.
Those kind of stakes (bearing in mind, as you say, the potential for huge multiples of success or failure) seem appealing.
I might try putting some of the cash from the Verstappen bet into a new spread account. But that'll be for the 2017 F1 season, so I'll wait and see how much I make/lose during the rest of the 2016 F1 season.
An interesting ORB poll last night - was the previous an outlier ? Maybe but there has been a sense of movement toward LEAVE in the last few days but there are three weeks until the majority of votes are to be cast and this is far from over.
http://www.dw.com/en/eu-president-tusk-decries-utopias-of-europe/a-19294623
Cameron, however, seems to think either "Ooh, there's a Muslim, maybe he's an extremist", or alternatively "Ah, here's a moderate Muslim, that's great". It makes life unnecessarily difficult for people who don't see religion as the dominant force in their lives - which, I'd argue, sane people should not. I live in a multicultural area, and the whole point of it is that we just get on with each other and treat people as individuals.
Looks like someone hoovered up everything from 4.5 down to 4.2 a few minutes ago.
It's windy and dull where I am in eastern England. Torrential rain not far away...
I'm well but getting concerned that if I spend too long on here I might "drop" so I'm logging off while I can, lol!
And at the Council level we have UK ministers, who just use the EU to explain away their implementing unpopular policies that they want to impose on us anyway.
And of course we do also have some political leaders who are so useless that they could not negotiate their way out of a paper bag. Everybody recognises that now.
None of these are the fault of the EU.
The woman is prima facie guilty of Espionage and Racketeering.
The most likely outcome is she cuts a deal with Obama (who loathes her and her husband) to step down in exchange for a plea bargain/pardon. Biden/Kerry lead the Dems to honourable defeat in November...
1.32 <-> 4.125
3/10 REMAIN
13/4 LEAVE
or thereabouts....
I'm also minded of the rule that for every three odds-on shots in racing, one gets turned over.
The regulation changes next year may afford opportunity.
Malc, a friend reported that it was up to 30deg C in the Ft. William area a week or so ago.
https://betting.betfair.com/decimal-odds-converter-fraction-odds-betfair-explained.html
Sturgeon in the debate will be a refreshing change from the Tory civil war which may interest the Tory research department but tees off everyone else.
I am no fan of identity politics but I do take the point you made a while back that it is valuable to have good role models. I hope that Khan does prove to be a good role model for Muslims and non-Muslims alike.
3/10 (1/3 in places) REMAIN
13/4 (3/1 and 16/5 in places) LEAVE
No on-course bookie would ever offer those prices - it would be more like 1/4 and 5/2 but there you go...
I'm old enough and ugly enough to remember you banging on about Obama's birth certificate last time around. Emailers are the new birthers.
Just like last time, they won't help your man win.
The outcome looks pretty close to me and should other polls show a further closing of the gap over the next few days, that might well be the time to take the rapidly disappearing 4/1 odds against LEAVE winning. Meanwhile, those 3.65 odds (3.52 net) with Betfair on REMAIN winning between 50.0% - 55.0% of the vote (and thereby winning the referendum by between 0% - 10%) appear to offer reasonable value.
DYOR.
Cameron is good at these seeming volte-faces. Three days before the 2010 GE, he was slagging off Nick Clegg and saying "no deals" yet the day after, it was fulsome praise and an "open offer of talks".
It's not like that, though. It's the rhetoric meeting the reality - whatever Cameron really thinks of Sadiq Khan is irrelevant - there are two factors, one Khan is Mayor of London and that makes him a significant political figure with whom he will have to deal and second, Khan is a supporter of REMAIN which is his side in his referendum.
It would have been absurd for Cameron NOT to have stood with Khan - the same is true of Khan. He is Mayor but Cameron is, for now, Prime Minister and the two have to establish a modus vivendi. IF REMAIN wins, Cameron may not feel he owes Khan a favour but it will make their future working relationship much more comfortable.
It's called politics and at the same time necessity which, as we know, makes strange bedfellows.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/voteymcvoteface-eu-referendum-initiative-from-government-brainst/
Anyone have a link to a 2017 F1 spread betting site?