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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Democratic Party California primary

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  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Mortimer said:

    Telegraph website down?

    Up for me.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    :lol:

    'Wetherspoons prints 'Brexit' beer mats

    Pub company JD Wetherspoon has printed 200,000 beer mats bearing a hard-hitting message arguing for the UK to leave the European Union.

    The beer mats will be available in the company's 920 pubs across the UK In the run-up to the June 23 referendum.

    The message draws attention to governance issues with senior staff at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and asks why UK voters should trust the views of its managing director, Christine Lagarde, who has voiced her support for the Remain group.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-see-significant-poll-boost-amid-imm/#update-20160531-0855
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The ORB implies a move among the young and with Labour voters.

    I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

    Some of the inners that Yougov revealed in their phone poll showed how wildly these things can swing based on whether it's a mobile or landline that is being chased, and which demographic answers.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    MaxPB said:

    peterbuss said:

    I am a dunce when it comes to understanding betting.Can one fo you kind guys tell me if Remain now" matched at 1.32 "is good or bad for them please?

    It means they are odds on to win, so it is good for them.
    Its neither good nor bad, odds are like any other market, they are all about opinion. Somebody thinks that around 1/3 or 33% is a good bet, somebody else doesn't and is prepared to lay it.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    PlatoSaid said:

    :lol:

    'Wetherspoons prints 'Brexit' beer mats

    Pub company JD Wetherspoon has printed 200,000 beer mats bearing a hard-hitting message arguing for the UK to leave the European Union.

    The beer mats will be available in the company's 920 pubs across the UK In the run-up to the June 23 referendum.

    The message draws attention to governance issues with senior staff at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and asks why UK voters should trust the views of its managing director, Christine Lagarde, who has voiced her support for the Remain group.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-see-significant-poll-boost-amid-imm/#update-20160531-0855

    Wetherspoons know their audience, this is very positive for Leave.
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    In other news, if you did not get on the below yesterday, more fool you ...

    https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

    Personally I think the leave win and turnout under 65% at 7/1 was the resl lulu
    Agreed. If turnout is low (and <65% is not especially low) then Leave's chances are good.</p>

    In other news, if you did not get on the below yesterday, more fool you ...

    https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

    Personally I think the leave win and turnout under 65% at 7/1 was the resl lulu
    Agreed. If turnout is low (and <65% is not especially low) then Leave's chances are good.</p>

    In other news, if you did not get on the below yesterday, more fool you ...

    https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

    Personally I think the leave win and turnout under 65% at 7/1 was the resl lulu
    Agreed. If turnout is low (and <65% is not especially low) then Leave's chances are good.</p>
    Certainly better than 7/1 - I would have thought 2/1 was nearer the mark
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Sandpit said:

    Betfair odds vs traditional fractional odds - including a quick reference table ;)
    https://betting.betfair.com/decimal-odds-converter-fraction-odds-betfair-explained.html

    Thank you.my friend. I think I got that about right.

    3/10 (1/3 in places) REMAIN
    13/4 (3/1 and 16/5 in places) LEAVE

    No on-course bookie would ever offer those prices - it would be more like 1/4 and 5/2 but there you go...
    A good link to keep handy, decimal odds based around 2 seem unnecessarily confusing and I consider myself good at maths! I would have designed it based around 1 being evens, so priced at 0.33 and 3.2 rather than 1.33 and 4.2, with a switch around conversion of Y=1/X, much more elegant!
    The odds system that I really don't like is the American one. To be fair it is perfectly simple but I can never remember how it works.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    PlatoSaid said:

    :lol:

    'Wetherspoons prints 'Brexit' beer mats

    Pub company JD Wetherspoon has printed 200,000 beer mats bearing a hard-hitting message arguing for the UK to leave the European Union.

    The beer mats will be available in the company's 920 pubs across the UK In the run-up to the June 23 referendum.

    The message draws attention to governance issues with senior staff at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and asks why UK voters should trust the views of its managing director, Christine Lagarde, who has voiced her support for the Remain group.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-see-significant-poll-boost-amid-imm/#update-20160531-0855

    Wetherspoons know their audience, this is very positive for Leave.
    They have lost , at least, one customer.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    :lol:

    'Wetherspoons prints 'Brexit' beer mats

    Pub company JD Wetherspoon has printed 200,000 beer mats bearing a hard-hitting message arguing for the UK to leave the European Union.

    The beer mats will be available in the company's 920 pubs across the UK In the run-up to the June 23 referendum.

    The message draws attention to governance issues with senior staff at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and asks why UK voters should trust the views of its managing director, Christine Lagarde, who has voiced her support for the Remain group.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-see-significant-poll-boost-amid-imm/#update-20160531-0855

    Wetherspoons know their audience, this is very positive for Leave.
    They have lost , at least, one customer.
    Like I said, they understand their market
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,228
    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    :lol:

    'Wetherspoons prints 'Brexit' beer mats

    Pub company JD Wetherspoon has printed 200,000 beer mats bearing a hard-hitting message arguing for the UK to leave the European Union.

    The beer mats will be available in the company's 920 pubs across the UK In the run-up to the June 23 referendum.

    The message draws attention to governance issues with senior staff at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and asks why UK voters should trust the views of its managing director, Christine Lagarde, who has voiced her support for the Remain group.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-see-significant-poll-boost-amid-imm/#update-20160531-0855

    Wetherspoons know their audience, this is very positive for Leave.
    They have lost , at least, one customer.
    Snap. Although I was never a very regular one.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Given May's close identification with immigration, is she really a viable leadership candidate? She has clearly failed utterly.

    The border force is a real problem. Albanians rocking up in Rye harbour in the small hours has changed the game. Reports on Sky that French skippers are making £1k per person - rubber dingies towed halfway in Channel and left to finish under own power. Apparently such craft can only manage an hour or two before taking on water.
    But May has been failing for years. It's not a recent phenomoenon
    She has, I've generally given her a pass as HO is total hospital pass of a job - and courts have thwarted her.
    iirc Theresa May is about to "reform" the fire brigade, which one imagines is a euphemism for cuts. This might prove unpopular since most people who are not Labour or Conservative SpAds (see hospital and school reforms passim) understand that distance matters. It is not enough to say the county of X has only enough fires to justify a dozen stations: most voters will understand that fire engines' journey times are crucial.
    Mr L, you are right but the fire service in England is desperately in need of reform. The quality of its senior management is dire, its management and financial systems are worse, and its employee relationship is something out of the ark. It was hoped that the service would reform itself, but as evidenced but our own firefighter who does not post on here as often as he used to, failed utterly and just made cuts.

    Take for example the County of Sussex. We have two separate fire brigades, with two headquarters, two very expensive command teams, two sets of training arrangements and so on. There is no justifiable reason for that, the police in the County merged in 1968 and the ambulance service some years later. The only reason Sussex still has two fire brigades is the vanity of certain county councillors and the egos of the command teams. The costs of running two could usefully be diverted into frontline services, but they refused to do so when a merger was proposed a few years ago,

    If the Fire Service will not reform itself then the Home Office jolly well should drag this fossilised public service into the modern era.
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    "Clinton has cancelled a day of campaigning in NJ this week and will instead return to California for 5 days ahead of the June 7 primary."

    Says it all really.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Just had a quick look at Sporting Index. No 2017 markets.

    Surprised Wehrlein has a sell of 5. Unless he jumps teams, that seems a bit optimistic.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    :lol:

    'Wetherspoons prints 'Brexit' beer mats

    Pub company JD Wetherspoon has printed 200,000 beer mats bearing a hard-hitting message arguing for the UK to leave the European Union.

    The beer mats will be available in the company's 920 pubs across the UK In the run-up to the June 23 referendum.

    The message draws attention to governance issues with senior staff at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and asks why UK voters should trust the views of its managing director, Christine Lagarde, who has voiced her support for the Remain group.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-see-significant-poll-boost-amid-imm/#update-20160531-0855

    Wetherspoons know their audience, this is very positive for Leave.
    They have lost , at least, one customer.
    Snap. Although I was never a very regular one.
    Regardless of whether I agreed with the message, I would not want a bar or restaurant to be giving me political messages when I'm out socialising. I loathe places of entertainment who feel that they should push some campaign at you, whether it's panda saving or those stupid ribbons for diseases or something more overtly political. There's a time and place for everything.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Just had a quick look at Sporting Index. No 2017 markets.

    Surprised Wehrlein has a sell of 5. Unless he jumps teams, that seems a bit optimistic.

    IIRC SPIN put up their F1 markets very late
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Now that'd be sight

    'Sajid Javid, the Business Secretary, is speaking in Birmingham this morning where he says small businesses in Britain are the "backbone of the economy".

    Adding: "Let's not break that backbone taking a leap in the dark."
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,228
    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    And the baseline was?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. P, to be fair, it's a long way off. Anyway, it was only an idle musing about something.

    Miss Cyclefree, I tend to agree.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    edited May 2016
    Sadly, and I say this as a Hillary fan, it seems that the Clintons ambition has gotten the better of them and twenty five years of media attacks has taken their toll.

    Joe Biden was the obvious pick for 2016 to run a term and to nurture some new talent in the party.
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    F1: although, now Mr. Putney raises it, there might be something worth considering.

    Anyone have a link to a 2017 F1 spread betting site?

    That's wishful thinking Morris! The likes of Sporting Index and Spreadex won't be posting their 2017 spread prices until a few weeks before the start of next season, i.e. February 2017.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    :lol:

    'Wetherspoons prints 'Brexit' beer mats

    Pub company JD Wetherspoon has printed 200,000 beer mats bearing a hard-hitting message arguing for the UK to leave the European Union.

    The beer mats will be available in the company's 920 pubs across the UK In the run-up to the June 23 referendum.

    The message draws attention to governance issues with senior staff at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and asks why UK voters should trust the views of its managing director, Christine Lagarde, who has voiced her support for the Remain group.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-see-significant-poll-boost-amid-imm/#update-20160531-0855

    Wetherspoons know their audience, this is very positive for Leave.
    They have lost , at least, one customer.
    Snap. Although I was never a very regular one.
    I used to use the one at Victoria Station when I was going up to Town regularly but haven't set foot in one since - ghastly places and not proper pubs. However, whilst I agree with Blackburn63 who said that Weatherspoons know their customers, I think Mrs Free has ,as usual, got it right - businesses should not push political messages on their customers.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. Putney, ah, that's a bit rubbish.

    I was thinking that backing Button for reasonable points may make sense, as he could well shift to Williams.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    tyson said:

    Sadly, and I say this as a Hillary fan, it seems that the Clintons ambition has gotten the better of them and twenty five years of media attacks has taken their toll.

    Joe Biden was the obvious pick for 2016 to run a term and to nurture some new talent in the party.

    Joe Biden is already 73 and his two previous attempts to become president scored nul points in the primaries. The man is known for gaffes -- including plagiarising Neil Kinnock's "first Kinnock/Biden for a thousand generations" speech.

    Joe Biden really was never the obvious pick. Kerry maybe or even Al Gore if we are confining ourselves to previous near-misses.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,969

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    And the baseline was?
    http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/05/2836/1
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,091
    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    Well, those stats are about Scotland ;)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Just had a quick look at Sporting Index. No 2017 markets.

    Surprised Wehrlein has a sell of 5. Unless he jumps teams, that seems a bit optimistic.

    IIRC SPIN put up their F1 markets very late
    You'd want to have a lot of currently missing information before offering up spreads on next season. Driver and team pairings would be a good start, there could be a lot of promotions, contract renewals, moves around and injuries between now and next March. There's also substantial car design changes from 2016 to 2017, so they'll probably wait until after the pre-season testing to see how the cars are performing.

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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Best wishes to @JackW.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. SE, shocking story.

    Can't believe the German police actually caught and arrested those involved.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    MikeK said:

    If Sanders beats H. Clinton in `California, even by a whisker, she is cold meat.

    Sanders will be mush in The Donald's jaws if he is the nominee.

    So who else from the Democrats could jump in to save the wreck of a campaign? There is still five months campaigning weather between June 7th and Nov 4th.

    Hillary will still have the delegates to win even if she loses California and I still think she will scrape a win in the state. Polling actually suggests Sanders would beat Trump by more than Hillary would, Sanders would be able to run more effectively against Wall Street and the establishment than she would and that would blunt the appeal of Trump's populism, it would be a battle over who Americans hate more, Wall Street and billionaires or Mexican migrants, Muslims and China
    Have you seen Sanders car crash interview about South America given to Univision? Hand in heads stuff. Sanders polls well currently because he's had HeeHaw media scrutiny.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,240
    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had my own library card at three (you weren't supposed to have one until you were five).
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had the reading age of a 9yrs old at 4 because my mother paid attention to learning this vital skill. I was bored stiff at primary school, and accused of lying by a teacher when I said I'd read the set book in an afternoon. It makes me wonder what's going on nowadays. 40%?
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    RodCrosby said:

    MikeK said:

    If Sanders beats H. Clinton in `California, even by a whisker, she is cold meat.

    Sanders will be mush in The Donald's jaws if he is the nominee.

    So who else from the Democrats could jump in to save the wreck of a campaign? There is still five months campaigning weather between June 7th and Nov 4th.

    no one. hillary will be the candidate unless the fbi move in.
    Erm, the FBI already has moved in and is in fact broadening its investigations.

    The woman is prima facie guilty of Espionage and Racketeering.

    The most likely outcome is she cuts a deal with Obama (who loathes her and her husband) to step down in exchange for a plea bargain/pardon. Biden/Kerry lead the Dems to honourable defeat in November...
    For anyone interested, Biden is best-priced at 40/1 with SkyBet to be the Democratic POTUS candidate, with Kerry bringing up the rear on offer at 1000 or 949/1 with the Betfair exchange.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @philipjcowley has put up a series of tweets on something I was going to blog about. I won't bother because he has made the points I would have made far more eloquently than me.

    The tweets start here:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/737581141318721536

    I won't clog up the entire thread with them but the basic point is that Remain characters are generally nice and Leave characters are generally not. It's perhaps a pointer that voting Leave is seen as the action of not-nice people. BUT lots of don't knows.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,091

    @philipjcowley has put up a series of tweets on something I was going to blog about. I won't bother because he has made the points I would have made far more eloquently than me.

    The tweets start here:

    twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/737581141318721536

    I won't clog up the entire thread with them but the basic point is that Remain characters are generally nice and Leave characters are generally not. It's perhaps a pointer that voting Leave is seen as the action of not-nice people. BUT lots of don't knows.

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/737582654078345217

    Glorious... :D
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    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had the reading age of a 9yrs old at 4 because my mother paid attention to learning this vital skill. I was bored stiff at primary school, and accused of lying by a teacher when I said I'd read the set book in an afternoon. It makes me wonder what's going on nowadays. 40%?
    What we are seeing nowadays is the result of the Blob winning for a few decades. As a 49 year old, I was sat at a desk of my own facing the front and in a class with some discipline. Nothing magic just simple teaching the Rs to kids. Nowadays it's all sitting around tables in groups and chaos in the classroom. We know how to educate children. We just choose something else. Putting this straight is part of why the Blob detests Gove.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977

    @philipjcowley has put up a series of tweets on something I was going to blog about. I won't bother because he has made the points I would have made far more eloquently than me.

    The tweets start here:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/737581141318721536

    I won't clog up the entire thread with them but the basic point is that Remain characters are generally nice and Leave characters are generally not. It's perhaps a pointer that voting Leave is seen as the action of not-nice people. BUT lots of don't knows.

    I would summarise as:

    Remain characters are generally unionised workers, politicians or organs of the state/establishment.

    Whereas the working class heroes are for Brexit.

    Doesn't surprise me. And, necessary bucket of salt aside. suggests the odds on Remain are far too short.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,273
    On the fictional characters, I'd have thought that Del Boy would be pro the Common Market - or at least, would have been in the 1980s.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Incidentally, the referendum intruded on my facebook timeline for the first time this weekend. One of my most ardent Remain friends posted a (not very interesting) link to some Remain propaganda and two friends declared themselves for Leave.

    Fortunately, most of my friends are above inflicting their political nonsense on me (the worst offenders get defriended sooner rather than later).
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ScottyNational: Numeracy : SNP dismisses the latest numeracy attainment gap rise - "Well we only really need the poor to be able to count to 45..."
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @SouthamObserver I pass on a message from isam, who isn't convinced about your tipping of 7/1 & 8/1 for LEAVE and over/under 65% turnout. He points out that combined they were 10/3 LEAVE at a time when it was bigger than 4/1 on Betfair.

    Personally I like the "under" bet much more than the "over" bet.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited May 2016
    Grayling speech on Sky now
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,038

    @SouthamObserver I pass on a message from isam, who isn't convinced about your tipping of 7/1 & 8/1 for LEAVE and over/under 65% turnout. He points out that combined they were 10/3 LEAVE at a time when it was bigger than 4/1 on Betfair.

    Personally I like the "under" bet much more than the "over" bet.

    Yep - I am big on the 4-1 and the 7-1, covering on the 8-1; and buggered if Remain somehow scrapes over the line.

  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Patrick said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had the reading age of a 9yrs old at 4 because my mother paid attention to learning this vital skill. I was bored stiff at primary school, and accused of lying by a teacher when I said I'd read the set book in an afternoon. It makes me wonder what's going on nowadays. 40%?
    What we are seeing nowadays is the result of the Blob winning for a few decades. As a 49 year old, I was sat at a desk of my own facing the front and in a class with some discipline. Nothing magic just simple teaching the Rs to kids. Nowadays it's all sitting around tables in groups and chaos in the classroom. We know how to educate children. We just choose something else. Putting this straight is part of why the Blob detests Gove.
    Except it is not really like that. Literacy and numeracy rates have been low for decades, if not forever. That's one reason they put the school leaving age up in the middle of WW2. Nor did Gove fix anything: he just hoped that Free Schools would find a solution. The last EdSec to do anything on literacy was Labour's David Blunkett -- remember the debates about phonics and literacy hours.

  • Options
    AlasdairAlasdair Posts: 72

    I can see a clear need for Captain Mainwaring and his boys to protect our coastline from illegal invaders. Then ID cards to help root out the illegal aliens.

    Captain Mainwaring had orders to kill or capture invaders.

    Today, migrants would be given a lift to a UK port and once there, claim asylum. Unless
    illegal entry invalidates an asylum claim and illegal entrants can be sent back to France or their home country, little will be achieved.

    I fear there are no easy solutions.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2016

    @philipjcowley has put up a series of tweets on something I was going to blog about. I won't bother because he has made the points I would have made far more eloquently than me.
    I won't clog up the entire thread with them but the basic point is that Remain characters are generally nice and Leave characters are generally not. It's perhaps a pointer that voting Leave is seen as the action of not-nice people. BUT lots of don't knows.

    Mr Meeks, I hope you feel better saying that. "Fictional nasty people lean to LEAVE..." But you in real life insult folk who dare to support LEAVE. Which is not a nice way of behaving and somewhat prove the opposite that in real life the nasty people tend to be for REMAIN.
  • Options
    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    It is a few years ago, but if you travelled as a foot passenger on the Poole ferries there used to be a few soliciters clutching briefcases waiting for asylum seekers.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,925
    Alasdair said:

    I can see a clear need for Captain Mainwaring and his boys to protect our coastline from illegal invaders. Then ID cards to help root out the illegal aliens.

    Captain Mainwaring had orders to kill or capture invaders.

    Today, migrants would be given a lift to a UK port and once there, claim asylum. Unless
    illegal entry invalidates an asylum claim and illegal entrants can be sent back to France or their home country, little will be achieved.

    I fear there are no easy solutions.
    Didn't Basil, say, of the Germans, "forgive and forget Major"?

    The Major obviously would be for 'Leave' - Commonwealth first and all that.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,925
    Appleby wouldn't be for Remain. He would decline to express an opinion.
  • Options
    chestnut said:

    The ORB implies a move among the young and with Labour voters.

    I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

    Some of the inners that Yougov revealed in their phone poll showed how wildly these things can swing based on whether it's a mobile or landline that is being chased, and which demographic answers.

    I thought Orb was landline only?

    If this movement is reflected in other polls with reference to previous polls by same company it is very significant as up to now they have not moved since before Obama interfered.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Appleby wouldn't be for Remain. He would decline to express an opinion.

    Appleby would most definitely be for Remain, whispering in Hacker's Cameron's ear that a temptation to back Leave was "brave" ...
  • Options
    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had the reading age of a 9yrs old at 4 because my mother paid attention to learning this vital skill. I was bored stiff at primary school, and accused of lying by a teacher when I said I'd read the set book in an afternoon. It makes me wonder what's going on nowadays. 40%?
    Two incidents I recall about teachers attitudes to reading from my time at primary school echo that. At 5yrs old being told off for reading the whole book that night instead of just one page. Then later at around 9 or 10yrs old being told off for the library books that I had that were "too old for me". Nothing salacious they just came from the adult section of the large town which the librarians had given me cards to when I ran out of books to read in the kids section....
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Patrick said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had the reading age of a 9yrs old at 4 because my mother paid attention to learning this vital skill. I was bored stiff at primary school, and accused of lying by a teacher when I said I'd read the set book in an afternoon. It makes me wonder what's going on nowadays. 40%?
    What we are seeing nowadays is the result of the Blob winning for a few decades. As a 49 year old, I was sat at a desk of my own facing the front and in a class with some discipline. Nothing magic just simple teaching the Rs to kids. Nowadays it's all sitting around tables in groups and chaos in the classroom. We know how to educate children. We just choose something else. Putting this straight is part of why the Blob detests Gove.
    Except it is not really like that. Literacy and numeracy rates have been low for decades, if not forever. That's one reason they put the school leaving age up in the middle of WW2. Nor did Gove fix anything: he just hoped that Free Schools would find a solution. The last EdSec to do anything on literacy was Labour's David Blunkett -- remember the debates about phonics and literacy hours.

    Sorry, old boy, I have to disagree. My primary school was in a dilapidated set of buildings in Wandsworth, utterly crap facilities, but no child left that school functionally illiterate. The boy that was sat next to me had what we would now call learning difficulties but even he could by the age of eleven read, write and do basic sums.

    The education system in this country has never been good and has failed most children for more than a century. However, it has definitely got worse in recent decades.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,038

    @SouthamObserver I pass on a message from isam, who isn't convinced about your tipping of 7/1 & 8/1 for LEAVE and over/under 65% turnout. He points out that combined they were 10/3 LEAVE at a time when it was bigger than 4/1 on Betfair.

    Personally I like the "under" bet much more than the "over" bet.

    Yep - I am big on the 4-1 and the 7-1, covering on the 8-1; and buggered if Remain somehow scrapes over the line.

    I should add - and this will please isam - that I am betting from my Tottenham choke pot. It'll double in size if Leave wins on under 65% of the vote, grow nicely if they win on over 65% (unlikely, I think) and shrink by £250 if they lose. Whatever happens, I am taking a break after 23rd June.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. Betting, my history teacher saw I was reading a book about Hitler (borrowed from the library). Asked how I found it, I said it was ok, and he said it was aimed at Sixth Formers/undergraduates (I was 12 at the time). He seemed pleased, though.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @NCPoliticsEU: Cracking data from @StephenDFisher and @alanjrenwick - UK referendum polls tend to overestate support for "change" https://t.co/SLYGys9UEJ
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,992


    Mr L, you are right but the fire service in England is desperately in need of reform. The quality of its senior management is dire, its management and financial systems are worse, and its employee relationship is something out of the ark. It was hoped that the service would reform itself, but as evidenced but our own firefighter who does not post on here as often as he used to, failed utterly and just made cuts.

    Take for example the County of Sussex. We have two separate fire brigades, with two headquarters, two very expensive command teams, two sets of training arrangements and so on. There is no justifiable reason for that, the police in the County merged in 1968 and the ambulance service some years later. The only reason Sussex still has two fire brigades is the vanity of certain county councillors and the egos of the command teams. The costs of running two could usefully be diverted into frontline services, but they refused to do so when a merger was proposed a few years ago,

    If the Fire Service will not reform itself then the Home Office jolly well should drag this fossilised public service into the modern era.

    There is no "County of Sussex", there is or are East Sussex County Council and West Sussex County Council. The only thing they have in common is they are both Conservative-run authorities.

    There are therefore two different Fire Authorities and two different Fire Services. The fun starts with areas like Horley, on the border between West Sussex and Surrey. The station is in West Sussex and should be run by West Sussex FRS but most of its calls involve going into Surrey who in effect are getting a free service.

    Fire service provision is one of the most emotive local issues. If you think closing a local library or yout centre is tough, try closing a local Fire Station and see how much opposition you encounter even if you present the facts regarding call numbers which show the station is under-utilised and provides a level of cover that isn't justified.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,038

    Patrick said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had the reading age of a 9yrs old at 4 because my mother paid attention to learning this vital skill. I was bored stiff at primary school, and accused of lying by a teacher when I said I'd read the set book in an afternoon. It makes me wonder what's going on nowadays. 40%?
    What we are seeing nowadays is the result of the Blob winning for a few decades. As a 49 year old, I was sat at a desk of my own facing the front and in a class with some discipline. Nothing magic just simple teaching the Rs to kids. Nowadays it's all sitting around tables in groups and chaos in the classroom. We know how to educate children. We just choose something else. Putting this straight is part of why the Blob detests Gove.
    Except it is not really like that. Literacy and numeracy rates have been low for decades, if not forever. That's one reason they put the school leaving age up in the middle of WW2. Nor did Gove fix anything: he just hoped that Free Schools would find a solution. The last EdSec to do anything on literacy was Labour's David Blunkett -- remember the debates about phonics and literacy hours.

    Sorry, old boy, I have to disagree. My primary school was in a dilapidated set of buildings in Wandsworth, utterly crap facilities, but no child left that school functionally illiterate. The boy that was sat next to me had what we would now call learning difficulties but even he could by the age of eleven read, write and do basic sums.

    The education system in this country has never been good and has failed most children for more than a century. However, it has definitely got worse in recent decades.

    Literacy and numeracy rates at primary level in England have been rising steadily since the mid-90s. That makes the falls in Scotland under the SNP even more shocking.

  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had the reading age of a 9yrs old at 4 because my mother paid attention to learning this vital skill. I was bored stiff at primary school, and accused of lying by a teacher when I said I'd read the set book in an afternoon. It makes me wonder what's going on nowadays. 40%?
    Two incidents I recall about teachers attitudes to reading from my time at primary school echo that. At 5yrs old being told off for reading the whole book that night instead of just one page. Then later at around 9 or 10yrs old being told off for the library books that I had that were "too old for me". Nothing salacious they just came from the adult section of the large town which the librarians had given me cards to when I ran out of books to read in the kids section....
    And perhaps there we have the difference between what teachers used to do and what they do now. You got told off for being in advance of where they thought you ought to be, I was praised and encouraged to go further (and given more responsibilities). My teachers wanted to stretch me (and all the other children), your teachers wanted to shut you down so that you conformed to their expectations.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,019
    More than half of the public say David Cameron should resign if Britain votes to quit the EU, a new poll reveals today.

    The BMG Research survey for the Standard also showed Boris Johnson is the runaway favourite to take over as Tory leader and Prime Minister.

    If the country rejects Mr Cameron’s campaign for the UK to stay in, 39 per cent of people believe he should stand down immediately after such an historic defeat. A further 19 per cent say he should go within a year.

    NOTE THE EUREF POLL MENTIONED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED LAST WEEK

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-must-go-if-he-loses-the-eu-referendum-say-58-of-public-a3260091.html
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    stodge said:


    Mr L, you are right but the fire service in England is desperately in need of reform. The quality of its senior management is dire, its management and financial systems are worse, and its employee relationship is something out of the ark. It was hoped that the service would reform itself, but as evidenced but our own firefighter who does not post on here as often as he used to, failed utterly and just made cuts.

    Take for example the County of Sussex. We have two separate fire brigades, with two headquarters, two very expensive command teams, two sets of training arrangements and so on. There is no justifiable reason for that, the police in the County merged in 1968 and the ambulance service some years later. The only reason Sussex still has two fire brigades is the vanity of certain county councillors and the egos of the command teams. The costs of running two could usefully be diverted into frontline services, but they refused to do so when a merger was proposed a few years ago,

    If the Fire Service will not reform itself then the Home Office jolly well should drag this fossilised public service into the modern era.

    There is no "County of Sussex", there is or are East Sussex County Council and West Sussex County Council. The only thing they have in common is they are both Conservative-run authorities.

    There are therefore two different Fire Authorities and two different Fire Services. The fun starts with areas like Horley, on the border between West Sussex and Surrey. The station is in West Sussex and should be run by West Sussex FRS but most of its calls involve going into Surrey who in effect are getting a free service.

    Fire service provision is one of the most emotive local issues. If you think closing a local library or yout centre is tough, try closing a local Fire Station and see how much opposition you encounter even if you present the facts regarding call numbers which show the station is under-utilised and provides a level of cover that isn't justified.
    It is all very well shutting under-utilised stations but you still need fire engines to be able to drive from the station to the fire in a reasonable amount of time, which probably necessitates a degree of over-provisioning. It's like insurance. You don't know if you're wasting money till afterwards.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Appleby wouldn't be for Remain. He would decline to express an opinion.

    Appleby would most definitely be for Remain, whispering in Hacker's Cameron's ear that a temptation to back Leave was "brave" ...
    Sir Humphrey believed we should be in Europe to split France from Germany, iirc.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rowenamason: Good qu from @BethRigby to Grayling on Boris/Gove energy bill VAT plan. Since when did backbencher and justice sec determine energy policy?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Mr. SE, shocking story.

    Can't believe the German police actually caught and arrested those involved.

    :wink:
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Patrick said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had the reading age of a 9yrs old at 4 because my mother paid attention to learning this vital skill. I was bored stiff at primary school, and accused of lying by a teacher when I said I'd read the set book in an afternoon. It makes me wonder what's going on nowadays. 40%?
    What we are seeing nowadays is the result of the Blob winning for a few decades. As a 49 year old, I was sat at a desk of my own facing the front and in a class with some discipline. Nothing magic just simple teaching the Rs to kids. Nowadays it's all sitting around tables in groups and chaos in the classroom. We know how to educate children. We just choose something else. Putting this straight is part of why the Blob detests Gove.
    Spot on.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,992


    It is all very well shutting under-utilised stations but you still need fire engines to be able to drive from the station to the fire in a reasonable amount of time, which probably necessitates a degree of over-provisioning. It's like insurance. You don't know if you're wasting money till afterwards.

    Indeed and I painted a slightly simplistic picture but the problem is Fire Stations need to be heated, lit, staffed and maintained (as do the appliances) and in a time of tight budgets, the plethora of local retained stations is an expense.

    The truth is well stocked centralised fire provision works perfectly well. Small numbers of big stations with modern equipment provide all the cover and the time argument is or can be overblown though I do appreciate in some coastal and rural areas there is a much stronger argument for retaining smaller localised provision.

    It's an interesting question and worth considering in parallel with Ambulance services and provision as part of an overall Blue Light strategy (which is what many County authorities do in terms of centralisation of command and control).
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    stodge said:


    Mr L, you are right but the fire service in England is desperately in need of reform. The quality of its senior management is dire, its management and financial systems are worse, and its employee relationship is something out of the ark. It was hoped that the service would reform itself, but as evidenced but our own firefighter who does not post on here as often as he used to, failed utterly and just made cuts.

    Take for example the County of Sussex. We have two separate fire brigades, with two headquarters, two very expensive command teams, two sets of training arrangements and so on. There is no justifiable reason for that, the police in the County merged in 1968 and the ambulance service some years later. The only reason Sussex still has two fire brigades is the vanity of certain county councillors and the egos of the command teams. The costs of running two could usefully be diverted into frontline services, but they refused to do so when a merger was proposed a few years ago,

    If the Fire Service will not reform itself then the Home Office jolly well should drag this fossilised public service into the modern era.

    There is no "County of Sussex", there is or are East Sussex County Council and West Sussex County Council. The only thing they have in common is they are both Conservative-run authorities.

    There are therefore two different Fire Authorities and two different Fire Services. The fun starts with areas like Horley, on the border between West Sussex and Surrey. The station is in West Sussex and should be run by West Sussex FRS but most of its calls involve going into Surrey who in effect are getting a free service.

    Fire service provision is one of the most emotive local issues. If you think closing a local library or yout centre is tough, try closing a local Fire Station and see how much opposition you encounter even if you present the facts regarding call numbers which show the station is under-utilised and provides a level of cover that isn't justified.
    Mr. Stoge, why do we need to have two fire brigades in Sussex? We amalgamated the different Police forces (there were five) in 1968. We have the Sussex Police why should we not have the Sussex Fire and Rescue Service?

    Vanity and ego, that is why.

    I never suggested closing any fire station, I just suggested not spending serious amounts of money having two command teams, two call centres, two training centres, two organisations. It is crackers.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291

    Mr. Betting, my history teacher saw I was reading a book about Hitler (borrowed from the library). Asked how I found it, I said it was ok, and he said it was aimed at Sixth Formers/undergraduates (I was 12 at the time). He seemed pleased, though.

    Did the VIth Formers get a bollocking for not reading it?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mortimer said:

    @philipjcowley has put up a series of tweets on something I was going to blog about. I won't bother because he has made the points I would have made far more eloquently than me.

    The tweets start here:

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/737581141318721536

    I won't clog up the entire thread with them but the basic point is that Remain characters are generally nice and Leave characters are generally not. It's perhaps a pointer that voting Leave is seen as the action of not-nice people. BUT lots of don't knows.

    I would summarise as:

    Remain characters are generally unionised workers, politicians or organs of the state/establishment.

    Whereas the working class heroes are for Brexit.

    Doesn't surprise me. And, necessary bucket of salt aside. suggests the odds on Remain are far too short.
    If you've paywall access - the comments under Ms Sylvester's article are pretty good. And debunk her premise quite effectively.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-europe-battle-is-turning-into-class-war-mz2vg3rjs
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,089

    Appleby wouldn't be for Remain. He would decline to express an opinion.

    Appleby would most definitely be for Remain, whispering in Hacker's Cameron's ear that a temptation to back Leave was "brave" ...
    Sir Humphrey believed we should be in Europe to split France from Germany, iirc.
    IIRC, Sir Humphrey disliked the EU intensely but wanted to subvert it from within.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Good qu from @BethRigby to Grayling on Boris/Gove energy bill VAT plan. Since when did backbencher and justice sec determine energy policy?

    Erm? Since our VAT minimums became the jurisdiction of a foreign power...

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,019
    Sean_F said:

    Appleby wouldn't be for Remain. He would decline to express an opinion.

    Appleby would most definitely be for Remain, whispering in Hacker's Cameron's ear that a temptation to back Leave was "brave" ...
    Sir Humphrey believed we should be in Europe to split France from Germany, iirc.
    IIRC, Sir Humphrey disliked the EU intensely but wanted to subvert it from within.
    Yup


    https://vimeo.com/85914510
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Dr. Spyn, it was just the age range, not sure it was actually a required text.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had the reading age of a 9yrs old at 4 because my mother paid attention to learning this vital skill. I was bored stiff at primary school, and accused of lying by a teacher when I said I'd read the set book in an afternoon. It makes me wonder what's going on nowadays. 40%?
    Two incidents I recall about teachers attitudes to reading from my time at primary school echo that. At 5yrs old being told off for reading the whole book that night instead of just one page. Then later at around 9 or 10yrs old being told off for the library books that I had that were "too old for me". Nothing salacious they just came from the adult section of the large town which the librarians had given me cards to when I ran out of books to read in the kids section....
    It really is a home-life cultural thing. It was de rigure to buy a book for someone as a present - plus nonsense for fun. We'd a whole wall of shelves with hundreds of titles in our living room. My mum and I would spent days deciding what to pick from book club brochures and act like small children at Christmas when they arrived en masse.

    My mum read dictionaries and I'd quiz her on them - I don't recall ever catching her out. Having the OED as your specialist subject is quite something. My favourite books were Guinness Book Records and encyclopaedias.

    By contrast, my husband's family owned a Pear's Concise Dictionary and the Yellow Pages. He couldn't name a single book he'd read unless forced to at school. It still makes me laugh at how different our views were. I bought him Meccano and Lego instead of books.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,228

    stodge said:


    Mr L, you are right but the fire service in England is desperately in need of reform. The quality of its senior management is dire, its management and financial systems are worse, and its employee relationship is something out of the ark. It was hoped that the service would reform itself, but as evidenced but our own firefighter who does not post on here as often as he used to, failed utterly and just made cuts.

    Take for example the County of Sussex. We have two separate fire brigades, with two headquarters, two very expensive command teams, two sets of training arrangements and so on. There is no justifiable reason for that, the police in the County merged in 1968 and the ambulance service some years later. The only reason Sussex still has two fire brigades is the vanity of certain county councillors and the egos of the command teams. The costs of running two could usefully be diverted into frontline services, but they refused to do so when a merger was proposed a few years ago,

    If the Fire Service will not reform itself then the Home Office jolly well should drag this fossilised public service into the modern era.

    There is no "County of Sussex", there is or are East Sussex County Council and West Sussex County Council. The only thing they have in common is they are both Conservative-run authorities.

    There are therefore two different Fire Authorities and two different Fire Services. The fun starts with areas like Horley, on the border between West Sussex and Surrey. The station is in West Sussex and should be run by West Sussex FRS but most of its calls involve going into Surrey who in effect are getting a free service.

    Fire service provision is one of the most emotive local issues. If you think closing a local library or yout centre is tough, try closing a local Fire Station and see how much opposition you encounter even if you present the facts regarding call numbers which show the station is under-utilised and provides a level of cover that isn't justified.
    Mr. Stoge, why do we need to have two fire brigades in Sussex? We amalgamated the different Police forces (there were five) in 1968. We have the Sussex Police why should we not have the Sussex Fire and Rescue Service?

    Vanity and ego, that is why.

    I never suggested closing any fire station, I just suggested not spending serious amounts of money having two command teams, two call centres, two training centres, two organisations. It is crackers.
    Similar situation existed in Essex with Southend Borough and Essex County services. The two were amalgamated for LA purpose n 1974 (IIRC) but as soon as it could Southend declared UDI and became a Unitary Authority. Fire Service remains amalgamated, though. Fortunately.

    These accidents of history exist all over the place.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,228

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
    If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,503
    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had the reading age of a 9yrs old at 4 because my mother paid attention to learning this vital skill.
    That sentence encapsulates a lot of the problem. No, you had the reading ability of a literate 4 year old. The idea that this constitutes a 'reading age of 9' is completely arbitrary and based on dumbing down to the average.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,068
    edited May 2016

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
    If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.
    I don't remember doing half as much grammar as seems to be in the curriculum these days (1986 - 1997). English appears to have become tougher.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited May 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
    If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.
    I don't remember doing half as much grammar as seems to be in the curriculum these days (1986 - 1997). English appears to have become tougher.
    VM for you. I was at primary in the mid 70s. :weary:
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @HurstLlama That's exactly the sort of misty-eyed nonsense I was referring to. Secondary moderns were by and large atrocious. Inner city London schools have improved out of all recognition in the last 20 years.

    Far more children were abandoned by the educational system in the past.

    Does Britain still have an underperforming education system? Yes, I think it does. Is it better than it was in the past? Yes, I think it is.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,038

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
    If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.

    Yep - the entire system is about passing a series of tests, nothing else. We have a PISA obsession and so are seeking to copy what happens in some Asian countries, without looking at the end product and whether that is what will work for us. I wish we put more emphasis on the ability to analyse, to create and to ask hard questions of people in authority and of the status quo generally.

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    "Clinton has cancelled a day of campaigning in NJ this week and will instead return to California for 5 days ahead of the June 7 primary."

    Says it all really.

    I think she's lookin to kill Sanders off once and for all to get him to stop with his sabotage of the democratic party.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,273
    Pulpstar said:

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
    If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.
    I don't remember doing half as much grammar as seems to be in the curriculum these days (1986 - 1997). English appears to have become tougher.
    There was a piece in the Guardian not so long ago that argued that part of the reason we find learning foreign languages tough is that we don't understand how our own one works. I know there's been a lot of moaning about the quite technical questions on English SATs tests, but it might be a good thing in the future. That said, I fear that 11 year olds will just learn the answers for the tests rather than fully grasping how words hang together.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
    If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.
    Mr. Cole, I am sorry but I really do get very cross about the education system in this country. Most of the people that go into teaching do so for good reasons and then the system takes over and they then seem to react in three different ways:

    1. They get captured by the system, forget why they came into teaching, and end up worrying about the process rather than the outcome.

    2. They hang on desperately trying to stay true to themselves but despairing of the culture they have to work in (see posts on here from our good Welsh Doctor)

    3. They give up and leave - I did.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Good qu from @BethRigby to Grayling on Boris/Gove energy bill VAT plan. Since when did backbencher and justice sec determine energy policy?

    Erm? Since our VAT minimums became the jurisdiction of a foreign power...

    How much would a VAT cut cost?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,503

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
    If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.

    Yep - the entire system is about passing a series of tests, nothing else. We have a PISA obsession and so are seeking to copy what happens in some Asian countries, without looking at the end product and whether that is what will work for us. I wish we put more emphasis on the ability to analyse, to create and to ask hard questions of people in authority and of the status quo generally.
    The system is increasingly designed to assess teachers rather than pupils.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @HurstLlama That's exactly the sort of misty-eyed nonsense I was referring to. Secondary moderns were by and large atrocious. Inner city London schools have improved out of all recognition in the last 20 years.

    Far more children were abandoned by the educational system in the past.

    Does Britain still have an underperforming education system? Yes, I think it does. Is it better than it was in the past? Yes, I think it is.

    So me saying the system is still not good enough is misty eyed nonsense.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. 86, I think that's a valid criticism. At school I learnt far more from German (and French, to a lesser extent) about the construction of language than I did in English, which was a largely useless subject.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,068
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
    If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.
    I don't remember doing half as much grammar as seems to be in the curriculum these days (1986 - 1997). English appears to have become tougher.
    There was a piece in the Guardian not so long ago that argued that part of the reason we find learning foreign languages tough is that we don't understand how our own one works. I know there's been a lot of moaning about the quite technical questions on English SATs tests, but it might be a good thing in the future. That said, I fear that 11 year olds will just learn the answers for the tests rather than fully grasping how words hang together.
    We don't have the mass media exposure to a foreign language (English) that our peers on the continent do, bit of a blessing and a curse that it is our MAIN language !
    I think that is far more responsible for the lack of fluency in a second language that most of us suffer.
    The only language I've ever had to use because I spoke (barely) better than the person I was communicating with is French.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
    If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.
    I don't remember doing half as much grammar as seems to be in the curriculum these days (1986 - 1997). English appears to have become tougher.
    There was a piece in the Guardian not so long ago that argued that part of the reason we find learning foreign languages tough is that we don't understand how our own one works. I know there's been a lot of moaning about the quite technical questions on English SATs tests, but it might be a good thing in the future. That said, I fear that 11 year olds will just learn the answers for the tests rather than fully grasping how words hang together.
    Without Latin, I'd have no idea. I can only recall a single English lesson that mentioned the technicalities of grammar.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
    If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.

    Yep - the entire system is about passing a series of tests, nothing else. We have a PISA obsession and so are seeking to copy what happens in some Asian countries, without looking at the end product and whether that is what will work for us. I wish we put more emphasis on the ability to analyse, to create and to ask hard questions of people in authority and of the status quo generally.

    Anyone who thinks the "Asian" system doesn't generate people who can analyse and create needs to take a look at today's People's Daily.

    https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/737195121918124032
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    PlatoSaid said:

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @trewloy: Here are the literacy and numeracy stats that weren't published during the election campaign for some reason https://t.co/MkTOUuxr6s

    @trewloy: 40% of secondary pupils performed well. 40%

    @trewloy: That's for kids who have been in school for nine years.
    40%.

    @trewloy: You can have free tuition all you like, but with that gap in schools there's only one level of society substantially benefiting from it.

    @trewloy: So, we have a wholly devolved area with a government in power for 9 years. And we're at 40% of S2 kids perform well in numeracy or literacy

    No wonder Cammo and Co are panting for Remain. At this rate England - and I say England - will not be able to stand on it's own two feet.

    And to think I was literate at the age of three and totally literate at the age of four. Poor, poor England. :sob:
    I had the reading age of a 9yrs old at 4 because my mother paid attention to learning this vital skill. I was bored stiff at primary school, and accused of lying by a teacher when I said I'd read the set book in an afternoon. It makes me wonder what's going on nowadays. 40%?
    Two incidents I recall about teachers attitudes to reading from my time at primary school echo that. At 5yrs old being told off for reading the whole book that night instead of just one page. Then later at around 9 or 10yrs old being told off for the library books that I had that were "too old for me". Nothing salacious they just came from the adult section of the large town which the librarians had given me cards to when I ran out of books to read in the kids section....
    And perhaps there we have the difference between what teachers used to do and what they do now. You got told off for being in advance of where they thought you ought to be, I was praised and encouraged to go further (and given more responsibilities). My teachers wanted to stretch me (and all the other children), your teachers wanted to shut you down so that you conformed to their expectations.
    That happened to me in the 1960s. I realised later what a terrible school it was.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Mr. Meeks, we still have a lot of of awful state schools, they just working to even lower standards. It is a feckin disgrace.

    There is perhaps room for optimism, as per Mr. Observer's post below, but not much. The standards demanded are far too low and once a pupil is "on track" to reach that low standard they are effectively abandoned as opposed to being stretched to reach their potential. This is the curse of the league table, which has the actual effect of dumbing down standards.
    If my newly qualified teacher grandson’s experience is any guide, in some areas of activity children are stretched beyond reason, in others left to find their own way.

    Yep - the entire system is about passing a series of tests, nothing else. We have a PISA obsession and so are seeking to copy what happens in some Asian countries, without looking at the end product and whether that is what will work for us. I wish we put more emphasis on the ability to analyse, to create and to ask hard questions of people in authority and of the status quo generally.

    Yup, good points. Unfortunately in order to ask hard questions one has to understand the topic. So without a good level of knowledge the questioner won't even know what question needs to be asked of those in authority.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    So me saying the system is still not good enough is misty eyed nonsense.

    Old re-runs of ask the family with egghead Robinson tells you all you need to know about where we are with education...
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    There seems to be a lot of misty-eyed nonsense on here about education in the past. Britain has had a lot of awful state schools for many decades (as well as some very good ones).

    Just the state schools? Someone showed me their public school magazine from the 60s, and it was boasting about O-level pass rates of about 30 per cent, so far as I could see. Public schools strove to create gentlemen, and academic education was by-the-by. (Granted, exams are easier to pass too.)



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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    @HurstLlama That's exactly the sort of misty-eyed nonsense I was referring to. Secondary moderns were by and large atrocious. Inner city London schools have improved out of all recognition in the last 20 years.

    Far more children were abandoned by the educational system in the past.

    Does Britain still have an underperforming education system? Yes, I think it does. Is it better than it was in the past? Yes, I think it is.

    So me saying the system is still not good enough is misty eyed nonsense.
    The Oracle of Islington has spoken. We don't need to waste time on our own opinions - Mr Meeks knows everything about everything.
This discussion has been closed.