politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Democratic Party California primary

I've been asked by Mrs Jack W to advise this blog that Jack was taken ill yesterday morning and will not be here until further notice.

Peter Waters routed via Dubai.

Sanders' vote is hideously white, California is majority non-white, so Mrs Bill should beat the Bern.

JackW said:

I've been asked by Mrs Jack W to advise this blog that Jack was taken ill yesterday morning and will not be here until further notice.

Peter Waters routed via Dubai.

Sorry to hear that. Best wishes for a speedy recovery.

JackW said:

I've been asked by Mrs Jack W to advise this blog that Jack was taken ill yesterday morning and will not be here until further notice.

Peter Waters routed via Dubai.

Oh dear. Best wishes to Jack for a speedy recovery. He’ll be missed.

JackW said:

I've been asked by Mrs Jack W to advise this blog that Jack was taken ill yesterday morning and will not be here until further notice.

Peter Waters routed via Dubai.

Best wishes to JackW.

Electoral Commission orders Bristol to resend 47,000 postal votes and writes to all returning officers, as similar 'biased' guidance notes have also been seen in Kent, West Sussex, Hertfordshire and Greater Manchester.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/30/council-to-pulp-eu-referendum-postal-ballots-as-bias-row-spreads/

JackW said:

I've been asked by Mrs Jack W to advise this blog that Jack was taken ill yesterday morning and will not be here until further notice.

Peter Waters routed via Dubai.

Thank you for letting us know - I trust Jack W has not been over-exerting his ARSE - and best wishes for a speedy recovery....

Get well soon, @JackW

Get well soon Jack.

In other news, if you did not get on the below yesterday, more fool you ...

https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

PlatoSaid said:

Sandpit said:

Electoral Commission orders Bristol to resend 47,000 postal votes and writes to all returning officers, as similar 'biased' guidance notes have also been seen in Kent, West Sussex, Hertfordshire and Greater Manchester.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/30/council-to-pulp-eu-referendum-postal-ballots-as-bias-row-spreads/

The Times is reporting that Bristol are refusing to reissue ballots, but will send new ones for the final 5k.

I can't see that being good enough. If they're wrong enough to be redesigned, they wrong enough to be reissued. The same goes for all the rest. We can't have an Austria scenario where a very tight result ends up being questioned.

On second reading it appears to have changed from the 47,000 postal votes sent already being resent, to amending only the 5,000 votes not sent out yet.

Disgraceful if true, as you say if they're wrong enough to need reprinting then they should reprint the whole run. A close result will almost certainly now end up in court, didn't a judge in a similar case once describe an election as being like that of 'A Banana Republic'?

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, if you did not get on the below yesterday, more fool you ...

https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

Personally I think the leave win and turnout under 65% at 7/1 was the resl lulu

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, if you did not get on the below yesterday, more fool you ...

https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

Personally I think the leave win and turnout under 65% at 7/1 was the resl lulu

Yep - that was my big one.

PlatoSaid said:

Brexit message de jour - leaving would allow us to cut VAT on fuel, or afford smaller class sizes.

Fantastic! And all that on top of a massive spending boost for the NHS. The magic money tree is a marvellous thing :-)

SouthamObserver said:

blackburn63 said:

The front pages make grim reading for Remain but on June 24 when everybody stops fighting the realisation of what a mess we're in will hit home. This govt has stopped governing, the population is out of control, nobody is showing any interest in taking responsibility or addressing it.

When all is said and done Cameron is trashed, he's achieved nothing.

He has three weeks and two days to save his legacy. If Leave wins he will be remembered as nothing but a failure. To lose a two horse race to Boris Johnson certainly takes some doing.

The same Boris who beat Leninspart twice in a two horse race in London FFS.

The same Leninspart who Thatcher cancelled the last GLC election to stop Leninspart winning a landslide and who after being deselected by Blair as mayor beat both Tory and Labour candidates as an independent.

Underestimate Boris at your peril.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

SouthamObserver said:

blackburn63 said:

The front pages make grim reading for Remain but on June 24 when everybody stops fighting the realisation of what a mess we're in will hit home. This govt has stopped governing, the population is out of control, nobody is showing any interest in taking responsibility or addressing it.

When all is said and done Cameron is trashed, he's achieved nothing.

He has three weeks and two days to save his legacy. If Leave wins he will be remembered as nothing but a failure. To lose a two horse race to Boris Johnson certainly takes some doing.

The same Boris who beat Leninspart twice in a two horse race in London FFS.

The same Leninspart who Thatcher cancelled the last GLC election to stop Leninspart winning a landslide and who after being deselected by Blair as mayor beat both Tory and Labour candidates as an independent.

Underestimate Boris at your peril.

Yep, the Boris who beat the anti-Semitic, tax-avoiding hypocrite Ken Livingstone.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, if you did not get on the below yesterday, more fool you ...

https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

Personally I think the leave win and turnout under 65% at 7/1 was the resl lulu

Yep - that was my big one.

Are we thinking the turnout will be below that at the general election? Not bet on it yet but there have been lots of reports here of increasing voter registration in the past weeks - is this a genuine increase in engagement, or is it a legacy of the re-registration exercise from last year leaving people unregistered?

I'd be careful on that. The new registration rules require it to be done on an individual rather than a household basis. It could just be something to do with that as it is bound to lead to a lot more applications. We submitted four applications from our house this time rather than just one.

I submitted nil and I have my voting card.

We were all rolled over last Autumn, I just had to log on online after getting the letter from the council to confirm no changes

It's different for different people/households. We did it all again.

"If she wasn’t facing Trump in November, I’d struggle to come up with plausible reasons on why you should be backing her to win The White House race in November."

Spot on. She is a very weak candidate: a poor campaigner with a mediocre track-record in office.

I remain of the view that Trump remains value. He's reached the stage where he hardly has to campaign on his policies; he can just devote time to bashing Hillary. She can of course fight back in kind but I wonder how much difference that will make. Trump enthuses, Hillary doesn't; but then Trump has more (but by no means a monopoly of) virulent antis.

On California, Clinton is clearly rattled. She must believe that there is at least a reasonable possibility that the 2%-lead polls are right and that it's far too close for safety. Given Sanders' record in states outside the South, that's not too surprising. She also has a momentum issue: she can't credibly claim that she is already the nominee-presumptive while also arguing that the result of the primary is crucial to her chances. How does she motivate people to vote for her if it'll have little to no difference on the outcome? I think Sanders might just do it.

ThreeQuidder said:

SouthamObserver said:

blackburn63 said:

The front pages make grim reading for Remain but on June 24 when everybody stops fighting the realisation of what a mess we're in will hit home. This govt has stopped governing, the population is out of control, nobody is showing any interest in taking responsibility or addressing it.

When all is said and done Cameron is trashed, he's achieved nothing.

He has three weeks and two days to save his legacy. If Leave wins he will be remembered as nothing but a failure. To lose a two horse race to Boris Johnson certainly takes some doing.

The thing you need to remember about Boris is that people like him.

They also think he's a bit of a fool.

SouthamObserver said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, if you did not get on the below yesterday, more fool you ...

https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

Personally I think the leave win and turnout under 65% at 7/1 was the resl lulu

Yep - that was my big one.

Dont blame you those are incredibly generous odds

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

SouthamObserver said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, if you did not get on the below yesterday, more fool you ...

https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273

Personally I think the leave win and turnout under 65% at 7/1 was the resl lulu

Yep - that was my big one.

Dont blame you those are incredibly generous odds

A gift, I'd say.

I took a bit of the 8/1 too to cover myself. I just can't see Leave losing this. Immigration is a total killer for Remain.

In his maiden speech as a Tory MP six years ago, Andrew Bridgen joked about being a little Englander. Three years later he was so outraged by the idea of same-sex marriage he demanded the ousting of David Cameron. A year later the wealthy businessman declared his full confidence in Cameron. Now he seeks a new leader again.

Clearly this man is confused, prejudiced and a poor judge of politics.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/30/david-cameron-crushing-tory-dinosaurs-revenge-reshuffle

ThreeQuidder said:

SouthamObserver said:

ThreeQuidder said:

SouthamObserver said:

blackburn63 said:

The front pages make grim reading for Remain but on June 24 when everybody stops fighting the realisation of what a mess we're in will hit home. This govt has stopped governing, the population is out of control, nobody is showing any interest in taking responsibility or addressing it.

When all is said and done Cameron is trashed, he's achieved nothing.

He has three weeks and two days to save his legacy. If Leave wins he will be remembered as nothing but a failure. To lose a two horse race to Boris Johnson certainly takes some doing.

The thing you need to remember about Boris is that people like him.

They also think he's a bit of a fool.

No, they think he's a bit of a clown. Big difference.

Fair enough. I'd still say losing a two horse race to a clown takes some doing. But Dave has brought it all on himself.

Boris this, EURef that. But, where do we stand on gorilla-gate?

Sandpit said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Sandpit said:

PlatoSaid said:

Sandpit said:

Electoral Commission orders Bristol to resend 47,000 postal votes and writes to all returning officers, as similar 'biased' guidance notes have also been seen in Kent, West Sussex, Hertfordshire and Greater Manchester.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/30/council-to-pulp-eu-referendum-postal-ballots-as-bias-row-spreads/

The Times is reporting that Bristol are refusing to reissue ballots, but will send new ones for the final 5k.

I can't see that being good enough. If they're wrong enough to be redesigned, they wrong enough to be reissued. The same goes for all the rest. We can't have an Austria scenario where a very tight result ends up being questioned.

On second reading it appears to have changed from the 47,000 postal votes sent already being resent, to amending only the 5,000 votes not sent out yet.

Disgraceful if true, as you say if they're wrong enough to need reprinting then they should reprint the whole run. A close result will almost certainly now end up in court, didn't a judge in a similar case once describe an election as being like that of 'A Banana Republic'?

That was about fraud and outight stealing of votes rather than dodgy instructions.

Of course, if postal voting weren't so easy this wouldn't be much of a problem.

Yes, it was from 2005, about postal voting fraud in Birmingham.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/apr/05/politics.localgovernment
"Judge slates 'banana republic' postal voting system"

Not sure how much better it has got since then, the re-registration last year should have helped though. I guess the way forward would be postal votes to be applied for for every election or referendum individually. It would be a pain for me as I'm away more than I'm in the UK, but would stop a lot of the outright fraud.

Are there really 52,000 people in Bristol travelling or too sick to vote in person next month?

TBH I rather enjoy going to the polling station to vote. I vote by post and on-line in other elections ...... professional organisations and so on ...... and it just doesn’t nhave the same sort of feel to it.

JackW said:

I've been asked by Mrs Jack W to advise this blog that Jack was taken ill yesterday morning and will not be here until further notice.

Peter Waters routed via Dubai.

Sorry to hear that. Get well soon Jack.

@sebwhale: Michael Gove on whether he would rather serve under Boris than Dave: "Absolutely not". Backs Cameron to remain as PM after a Brexit.

Sandpit said:

blackburn63 said:

SouthamObserver said:

blackburn63 said:

The front pages make grim reading for Remain but on June 24 when everybody stops fighting the realisation of what a mess we're in will hit home. This govt has stopped governing, the population is out of control, nobody is showing any interest in taking responsibility or addressing it.

When all is said and done Cameron is trashed, he's achieved nothing.

He has three weeks and two days to save his legacy. If Leave wins he will be remembered as nothing but a failure. To lose a two horse race to Boris Johnson certainly takes some doing.

Too late, his legacy (whatever it means) is trashed. According to Guido half his MPs oppose him, he's the lamest of lame ducks, the referendum is irrelevant.

Yep, he's truly burned bridges with his own party over the conduct of the referendum campaign. With such a small majority in the Commons, and no majority at all in the Lords, he's going to struggle to pass any legislation at all and could well lose a vote of confidence if he doesn't stand down soon.

12/1 on a General Election this year with Sky by the way. Also 12/1 on it being next year.
Edit: yes there's the fixed term Parliament Act, but that was designed to hold a coalition together. With the HoC as it's currently constructed almost no-one is going to be able to quickly command the Confidence of the House - a Tory stitch-up for Theresa May, maybe?

I don't think the Fixed Term Parliament Act would be an issue here, the PM would say "We want new elections" and Corbyn would have to reply "Bring it on". It's only really an issue for NOM situations where the PM tries to screw his coalition partner, and instead of "Bring it on" the Leader of the Opposition could say "Actually I think I'd rather be Prime Minister instead".

Morning all,

Talking US: I see Bill Kristol of Weekly Standard has kept up the tweeking of Trump over a indie candidate. It could be Romney if you read a lot (too much?) into one of his tweets over the weekend.

@BillKristol

MikeK said:

So who else from the Democrats could jump in to save the wreck of a campaign? There is still five months campaigning weather between June 7th and Nov 4th.

The most speculated upon ticket is Biden-Warren although perhaps reversing those names would be better.

On the Republican/Independent side, the chatter seems to be that the plan is/was a Romney-Kasich ticket.

Very best wishes to JackW.

MikeK said:

If Sanders beats H. Clinton in `California, even by a whisker, she is cold meat.

Sanders will be mush in The Donald's jaws if he is the nominee.

So who else from the Democrats could jump in to save the wreck of a campaign? There is still five months campaigning weather between June 7th and Nov 4th.

no one. hillary will be the candidate unless the fbi move in.

ThreeQuidder said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TOPPING said:

Boris this, EURef that. But, where do we stand on gorilla-gate?

Sounds to me that the gorilla was better at childcare than the parents.

The following is doing the rounds on Facebook this morning:

Police are investigating the parents of the 4 year old child who fell into the gorilla enclosure in a Cincinatti Zoo which resulted in Zoo officials killing the gorilla. Gonna do the parents for neglect.

Funny...I recall 2 parents who left their children alone in a hotel room in Portugal which resulted in a child going missing and they weren't done for neglect.

I can see circumstances in which we'd have let our kids run around at a zoo. In fact, I am sure we did. There is no way on God's earth we'd have left them in a house alone to go off and have a meal - even if it only involved a 50 yard journey. The McCanns made a terrible mistake. One they have to live with every day of their lives. There is no punishment they could suffer that is worse than what they have been through. And the fact they did what they did does not excuse the Portuguese police's mistakes or the lack of security at the resort.

dugarbandier said:

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given May's close identification with immigration, is she really a viable leadership candidate? She has clearly failed utterly.

The border force is a real problem. Albanians rocking up in Rye harbour in the small hours has changed the game. Reports on Sky that French skippers are making £1k per person - rubber dingies towed halfway in Channel and left to finish under own power. Apparently such craft can only manage an hour or two before taking on water.

But May has been failing for years. It's not a recent phenomoenon

And Tory Leavers were very happy to vote with May and Dave in favour of big cuts to the Royal Navy and the coastguard service.

Sandpit said:

Okay. Betfair turnout market: 5% increments, back prices.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.122981377

6.60 for 45-50%
3.65 for 50-55%
3.00 for 55-60%
6.20 for 60-65%
25.0 for 65-70%
48.0 for over 70%

Value in the higher turnouts? Surely it will be 60% or more after another three weeks of this, or by then will people be interested only in the football?

Those are not the turnout odds that I see. Do you have the Remain vote band odds there perhaps?

The Gorilla fiasco is leading to predictable reactions. Social media at its worst. Would those people calling for sanctions against the zoo feel the same if it was their son in the enclosure?

And knowing a tranquiliser dart won't act immediately, but would certainly antagonise the animal, what other option did the zoo have? Congratulations to the sharpshooter.

Yes, the parents bear some responsibility, but the child needed to be saved. The zoo made the only decision possible.

Best wishes to Messrs W and K.

Sandpit said:

Okay. Betfair turnout market: 5% increments, back prices.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.122981377

6.60 for 45-50%
3.65 for 50-55%
3.00 for 55-60%
6.20 for 60-65%
25.0 for 65-70%
48.0 for over 70%

Value in the higher turnouts? Surely it will be 60% or more after another three weeks of this, or by then will people be interested only in the football?

I think this is actually a market for Remains %.

Wanderer said:

Sandpit said:

Okay. Betfair turnout market: 5% increments, back prices.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.122981377

6.60 for 45-50%
3.65 for 50-55%
3.00 for 55-60%
6.20 for 60-65%
25.0 for 65-70%
48.0 for over 70%

Value in the higher turnouts? Surely it will be 60% or more after another three weeks of this, or by then will people be interested only in the football?

Those are not the turnout odds that I see. Do you have the Remain vote band odds there perhaps?

Oh Crap. Mods please delete my post!

CD13 said:

The Gorilla fiasco is leading to predictable reactions. Social media at its worst. Would those people calling for sanctions against the zoo feel the same if it was their son in the enclosure?

And knowing a tranquiliser dart won't act immediately, but would certainly antagonise the animal, what other option did the zoo have? Congratulations to the sharpshooter.

Yes, the parents bear some responsibility, but the child needed to be saved. The zoo made the only decision possible.

Best wishes to Messrs W and K.

Personally I'm a bigger fan of gorillas than children

MikeK said:

If Sanders beats H. Clinton in `California, even by a whisker, she is cold meat.

Sanders will be mush in The Donald's jaws if he is the nominee.

So who else from the Democrats could jump in to save the wreck of a campaign? There is still five months campaigning weather between June 7th and Nov 4th.

Hillary will still have the delegates to win even if she loses California and I still think she will scrape a win in the state. Polling actually suggests Sanders would beat Trump by more than Hillary would, Sanders would be able to run more effectively against Wall Street and the establishment than she would and that would blunt the appeal of Trump's populism, it would be a battle over who Americans hate more, Wall Street and billionaires or Mexican migrants, Muslims and China

You can buy turnout on Sporting Index at 63.5 (this has been rising over the last couple of months). It's probably still a buy, but of course you risk substantial losses if turnout is on the low side after all.

I bought at 62 and I'm very comfortable with that.