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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Democratic Party California primary
Perhaps I’m reading too much into the tweet by the political correspondent of The Washington Post, but Hillary Clinton’s actions don’t appear to be the actions of someone confident of winning California, There is of course huge symbolism if she fails to win California, America’s most populous state, people will inevitability say she’s the wrong candidate to win in…
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Peter Waters routed via Dubai.
Hillary’s attempt to shore up California does make one wonder what her private polling shows.
[edit] Cheers Mr Waters, - get well soon JackW.
Edit: get well soon Jack!
I think TSE is reading just a little too much into this. I think Hillary is being damaged by the perception of staggering over the line. She needs and will want a proper win to take her over the top in delegates and to end the Berne once and for all.
I am sure that she would rather be focussing on the general but with the recent spate of activity on the e-mail/server front and Bernie spending advertising like a born again capitalist in California she simply cannot give any perception that she is taking California for granted.
She is a very ordinary candidate but generally does her best when her back is against the wall. And it is. She cannot win the Presidency in California but she can lose it. The damage Sanders is doing to the Democratic party is incalculable. But then, like Trump on the republican side, he has never really been a member of it anyway.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/30/council-to-pulp-eu-referendum-postal-ballots-as-bias-row-spreads/
Who'd have thought that a flower power red-under-the-bed would be Hillary's worst nightmare?
He's clearly enjoying every minute of it. If she doesn't have a wax doll with pins in it, she needs one. He's kept her on the defensive, and pushed her to the Left.
That's she's found him so hard to beat says everything about her candidacy.
I can't see that being good enough. If they're wrong enough to be redesigned, they wrong enough to be reissued. The same goes for all the rest. We can't have an Austria scenario where a very tight result ends up being questioned.
https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273
When all is said and done Cameron is trashed, he's achieved nothing.
Disgraceful if true, as you say if they're wrong enough to need reprinting then they should reprint the whole run. A close result will almost certainly now end up in court, didn't a judge in a similar case once describe an election as being like that of 'A Banana Republic'?
Seems to me Vote Leave have their own grid, backloaded to the last four weeks after purdah takes effect.
Remain, Remain, your not singing anymore, your not singing anymore.
Of course, if postal voting weren't so easy this wouldn't be much of a problem.
He makes Blair look principled and sincere.
The same Leninspart who Thatcher cancelled the last GLC election to stop Leninspart winning a landslide and who after being deselected by Blair as mayor beat both Tory and Labour candidates as an independent.
Underestimate Boris at your peril.
We were all rolled over last Autumn, I just had to log on online after getting the letter from the council to confirm no changes
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/apr/05/politics.localgovernment
"Judge slates 'banana republic' postal voting system"
Not sure how much better it has got since then, the re-registration last year should have helped though. I guess the way forward would be postal votes to be applied for for every election or referendum individually. It would be a pain for me as I'm away more than I'm in the UK, but would stop a lot of the outright fraud.
Are there really 52,000 people in Bristol travelling or too sick to vote in person next month?
Spot on. She is a very weak candidate: a poor campaigner with a mediocre track-record in office.
I remain of the view that Trump remains value. He's reached the stage where he hardly has to campaign on his policies; he can just devote time to bashing Hillary. She can of course fight back in kind but I wonder how much difference that will make. Trump enthuses, Hillary doesn't; but then Trump has more (but by no means a monopoly of) virulent antis.
On California, Clinton is clearly rattled. She must believe that there is at least a reasonable possibility that the 2%-lead polls are right and that it's far too close for safety. Given Sanders' record in states outside the South, that's not too surprising. She also has a momentum issue: she can't credibly claim that she is already the nominee-presumptive while also arguing that the result of the primary is crucial to her chances. How does she motivate people to vote for her if it'll have little to no difference on the outcome? I think Sanders might just do it.
I keep having conversations on Twitter about this - so many feel duped and are looking back on other events which now look quite different in retrospect.
Like discovering you've been cheated on, all those nights working late take on another life.
I took a bit of the 8/1 too to cover myself. I just can't see Leave losing this. Immigration is a total killer for Remain.
Clearly this man is confused, prejudiced and a poor judge of politics.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/30/david-cameron-crushing-tory-dinosaurs-revenge-reshuffle
12/1 on a General Election this year with Sky by the way. Also 12/1 on it being next year.
Edit: yes there's the fixed term Parliament Act, but that was designed to hold a coalition together. With the HoC as it's currently constructed almost no-one is going to be able to quickly command the Confidence of the House - a Tory stitch-up for Theresa May, maybe?
That ARSE needs looking after.
Sausage-Wielding Extremists Attack Vegan Cafe In Tbilisi
http://www.rferl.org/content/georgia-nationalists-attack-vegan-cafe-with-sausages/27766236.html
Following JackW's missive, I have to tell all that I have a raging flu that is now entering it's third day.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/737402807263825920
@FT: Hedge funds and investment banks commission private EU referendum exit polls for early bets https://t.co/w5H2xsWsey https://t.co/fuWVAqoHKC
@drjennings: What happens if there's a run on the pound at 4pm and polls are still open? Could be interesting... https://t.co/3oKcc0mHJe
Sanders will be mush in The Donald's jaws if he is the nominee.
So who else from the Democrats could jump in to save the wreck of a campaign? There is still five months campaigning weather between June 7th and Nov 4th.
Talking US: I see Bill Kristol of Weekly Standard has kept up the tweeking of Trump over a indie candidate. It could be Romney if you read a lot (too much?) into one of his tweets over the weekend.
@BillKristol
On the Republican/Independent side, the chatter seems to be that the plan is/was a Romney-Kasich ticket.
Police are investigating the parents of the 4 year old child who fell into the gorilla enclosure in a Cincinatti Zoo which resulted in Zoo officials killing the gorilla. Gonna do the parents for neglect.
Funny...I recall 2 parents who left their children alone in a hotel room in Portugal which resulted in a child going missing and they weren't done for neglect.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.122981377
6.60 for 45-50%
3.65 for 50-55%
3.00 for 55-60%
6.20 for 60-65%
25.0 for 65-70%
48.0 for over 70%
Value in the higher turnouts? Surely it will be 60% or more after another three weeks of this, or by then will people be interested only in the football?
Best wishes to Mr. W. With luck, he'll be back in rude health soon.
Mr. K, hope your flu abates presently.
And knowing a tranquiliser dart won't act immediately, but would certainly antagonise the animal, what other option did the zoo have? Congratulations to the sharpshooter.
Yes, the parents bear some responsibility, but the child needed to be saved. The zoo made the only decision possible.
Best wishes to Messrs W and K.
Of all the messes that were left behind by the outgoing government in 2010, the military was probably the worst.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.123293871
I agree. It's sad, but was necessary.
Mr. Observer, I do wonder about that. If more money gets poured in, and boats and crews supplied, all that will happen is the taxi service to Britain will be more efficient.
Cameron needs to get a grip on this, or people will think that inside the EU we don't have a secure border. [Of course, we might not outside the EU, but that's a maybe whereas the insecurity within will be certain].
I bought at 62 and I'm very comfortable with that.
I get uncomfortable around people who calls their pets human names. I confess to calling a cat Richard Parker, but that was making a whole other point.