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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How old men being available on Friday nights to do online polls might be skewing results
“..Interviews tend to build up quickly on each Friday night, probably because certain types of people are more readily available and willing to participate.
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Would that include OGH himself?
'The Bank of England might intervene again in the European Union referendum debate just days before Britons vote, Mark Carney has said.
The Bank of England’s Governor told MPs that he could not rule out that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will further comment on June 16 when it publishes minutes of its last meeting...'
and
'David Cameron today claimed the cost of a family summer holiday to the Mediterranean and other popular EU destinations could rise by £230 if the country votes for Brexit.
The Prime Minister cited Treasury analysis that suggests a fall in the value of the pound after leaving the EU would send the cost for flights, hotel accommodation and meals abroad soaring.
He also warned that Britons could lose rights to travel to EU countries without a visa and have holiday homes abroad if voters back Brexit. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/24/eu-referendum-tories-threaten-david-cameron-with-no-confidence-v/
" There may be a problem with online polls cos old UKIP-voting men are really keen to share opinions on Friday nights. https://t.co/d1ggqx10Ch "
(There is some time of the week when UKIP-voting old men are reluctant to share their opinion?)
Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
Honestly, I'd have much more respect for pollsters if they stuck to their guns consistently. We might all learn something.
Never met one yet ;-)
List a set of people by demographic and it is soon evident when they will most likely be available for contact and willing to participate;
Example:
25 year old full time bank cashier works in City with a one hour commute either way. He's unavailable from 8-6 Mon-Fri, and probably later on Friday if going out.
Non working parent of three school age children. Unavailable until 10 am, then 2-4 pm, possibly after whilst making meal, probably wants a bit of peace and quiet when they go to bed. Best contact 10-2 weekdays, or weekend when other half is home.
Who is more likely to answer a mobile and do a survey during the week? A part time public sector worker, a media worker, white van man?
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/the-case-against-phone-polls-is-not-proven.html/#more-1855
They didn't go big on demographics so assume they're going for a big sample.
Anyway, some of the teddy-throwing on here in the last 24 hours has been ace! And there's still a month to go..
Which groups are less able to vote on a Thursday?
Thankfully at 45 I'm still middle aged.
Perhaps those who take unsolicted phone poll calls are equally keen.
9PM on a Friday is defo pub time.
Perhaps that's the way to go.
I would get out more, but it just isn't as much fun as being a pedant.
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
I suggst some polls should be carried out by post in order to simulate postal voting.
This does not feel like the Muhammad Ali v George Foreman 1974 fight . Where leave is Ali taking all the punches on the ropes, but to eventually land the knock out blow after remain have tired themselves out.
It has become an Ali v Richard Dunn 1976 fight where leave is Dunn the plucky Yorkshireman.
1976-05-24 : Muhammad Ali 220 lbs beat Richard Dunn 206½ lbs by TKO at 2:05 in round 5 of 15
Location: Olympiahalle, Munich, Bayern, Germany
Referee: Herbert Tomser
World Boxing Council Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
World Boxing Association Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
Notes
Ali dropped Dunn three times in the fourth and twice in the fifth.
This was Ali's last knockout win.
This might be Cameron`s last win.
Colour me sceptical.
Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.
Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!
One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.
I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.
"Clay was a seven to one betting underdog. Of the 46 sportswriters at ringside, 43 had picked Sonny Liston to win by knockout."
We'll shock the world.
Internet polls suffer from the fact that you have to join a panel, to earn perhaps two quid for wasting spending three or four hours a month filling in surveys. I don't know what other people think, but I'm not convinced that will generate a particularly representative sample.
Phone polls suffer from (a) the increased prevalence of mobile phones, (b) appallingly low response rates, and (c) a natural tendency of respondents to give the answer the person asking is hoping for. (Alternatively, if it's a robo-call system, you get even lower response rates...)
On June 24th, I'll let you guys know whether I think phone or Internet polling is more reliable WRT to the EU referendum.
We're just shooting the breeze for gits and shiggles.
Anyone who gets the exalted position of chair of Hertfordshire's health authority is destined for great things.
Hertfordshire doesn't title itself as 'County of Opportunity' for nothing you know.
For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now
Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.
Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.
I am kind of surprised they said they were from one campaign or the other.
Personally, I think England will be very close, and for Leave outside the cities.
In Wales, and NI and Scotland in particular, it'll be more lopsided.
An Australian town in a "state of emergency" because of an immigration problem.
The polls that were out were the ones looking at Lab/Con split in the English battlegrounds.
People are still unwilling to believe polls that do not meet their expectations.