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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How old men being available on Friday nights to do online polls might be skewing results

“..Interviews tend to build up quickly on each Friday night, probably because certain types of people are more readily available and willing to participate.

Read the full story here

tlg86

First, like my dad to the pub on a Friday night!

foxinsoxuk

Second like Leave

Sunil_Prasannan

"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?

Jonathan

If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative

dr_spyn

When was the need for adjustment first noticed?

AlastairMeeks

This has wider implications for online polling. If one subset of those responding are atypical of their demographic, how can we be confident that other subsets are typical of their demographic?

DavidL

More remainist propaganda. Leave supporters are grumpy old gits without a life. It's official. Gold standard and everything.

Plato_Says

FFS

'The Bank of England might intervene again in the European Union referendum debate just days before Britons vote, Mark Carney has said.

The Bank of England’s Governor told MPs that he could not rule out that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will further comment on June 16 when it publishes minutes of its last meeting...'

and

'David Cameron today claimed the cost of a family summer holiday to the Mediterranean and other popular EU destinations could rise by £230 if the country votes for Brexit.

The Prime Minister cited Treasury analysis that suggests a fall in the value of the pound after leaving the EU would send the cost for flights, hotel accommodation and meals abroad soaring.

He also warned that Britons could lose rights to travel to EU countries without a visa and have holiday homes abroad if voters back Brexit. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/24/eu-referendum-tories-threaten-david-cameron-with-no-confidence-v/

Wanderer

DavidL said:

More remainist propaganda. Leave supporters are grumpy old gits without a life. It's official. Gold standard and everything.

Or as @jimwaterson put it:

" There may be a problem with online polls cos old UKIP-voting men are really keen to share opinions on Friday nights. https://t.co/d1ggqx10Ch "

(There is some time of the week when UKIP-voting old men are reluctant to share their opinion?)

Casino_Royale

Jonathan said:

If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative

I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.

Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.

kle4

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?

The correct term is 'experienced'.

But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.

AnneJGP

So what are all the old women doing on Friday evenings, then?

Casino_Royale

On topic it looks like several pollsters are looking for a reason to rationalise a herd. Probably on the basis the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Honestly, I'd have much more respect for pollsters if they stuck to their guns consistently. We might all learn something.

foxinsoxuk

Wanderer said:

DavidL said:

More remainist propaganda. Leave supporters are grumpy old gits without a life. It's official. Gold standard and everything.

Or as @jimwaterson put it:

" There may be a problem with online polls cos old UKIP-voting men are really keen to share opinions on Friday nights. https://t.co/d1ggqx10Ch "

(There is some time of the week when UKIP-voting old men are reluctant to share their opinion?)

Shy kippers?

Never met one yet ;-)

Wanderer

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative

I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.

Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.

Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.

MonikerDiCanio

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

surbiton

AlastairMeeks said:

This has wider implications for online polling. If one subset of those responding are atypical of their demographic, how can we be confident that other subsets are typical of their demographic?

Online polls have serious flaws.

chestnut

This one has substance.

List a set of people by demographic and it is soon evident when they will most likely be available for contact and willing to participate;

Example:

25 year old full time bank cashier works in City with a one hour commute either way. He's unavailable from 8-6 Mon-Fri, and probably later on Friday if going out.

Non working parent of three school age children. Unavailable until 10 am, then 2-4 pm, possibly after whilst making meal, probably wants a bit of peace and quiet when they go to bed. Best contact 10-2 weekdays, or weekend when other half is home.

Who is more likely to answer a mobile and do a survey during the week? A part time public sector worker, a media worker, white van man?

AnneJGP

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative

I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.

Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.

Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.

Not just PPI - I automatically put a stop to the call if I hear the word 'survey' mentioned. Wait until they draw breath & just say "No, thank you, goodbye".

Verulamius

Matt Singh has put his views forward on graduate over representation in polls.

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/the-case-against-phone-polls-is-not-proven.html/#more-1855

surbiton

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

Actually, the majority of people after 9pm on a Friday are stark sober.

Monksfield

Quick de-lurk - Just phone polled by someone or another on behalf of Britain In.

They didn't go big on demographics so assume they're going for a big sample.

Anyway, some of the teddy-throwing on here in the last 24 hours has been ace! And there's still a month to go..

David_Evershed

Perhaps polls should only be carried out on a Thursday to simulate the actual election day.

Which groups are less able to vote on a Thursday?

Casino_Royale

Monksfield said:

Quick de-lurk - Just phone polled by someone or another on behalf of Britain In.

They didn't go big on demographics so assume they're going for a big sample.

Anyway, some of the teddy-throwing on here in the last 24 hours has been ace! And there's still a month to go..

Private poll most likely.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

kle4 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?

The correct term is 'experienced'.

But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.

I prefer to call them 'seasoned'
Thankfully at 45 I'm still middle aged.

Casino_Royale

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative

I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.

Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.

Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.

Correct. Which begs the question how good the phone polls are if call filtering is so good these days, and the response rates so low.

Perhaps those who take unsolicted phone poll calls are equally keen.

DavidL

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

surbiton said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

Actually, the majority of people after 9pm on a Friday are stark sober.

That's where they're going wrong Surby.
9PM on a Friday is defo pub time.

Wanderer

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative

I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.

Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.

Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.

Correct. Which begs the question how good the phone polls are if call filtering is so good these days, and the response rates so low.

Perhaps those who take unsolicted phone poll calls are equally keen.

Or at least atypical in some way. Heck, maybe they are just less irritable than the norm. That alone would be a problem, I think.

TheScreamingEagles

The Crosby-Textor private polls for the Tories at the last election that were so accurate were hybrid polls, combining both phone and online samples.

Perhaps that's the way to go.

felix

Plato_Says said:

FFS

'The Bank of England might intervene again in the European Union referendum debate just days before Britons vote, Mark Carney has said.

The Bank of England’s Governor told MPs that he could not rule out that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will further comment on June 16 when it publishes minutes of its last meeting...'

and

'David Cameron today claimed the cost of a family summer holiday to the Mediterranean and other popular EU destinations could rise by £230 if the country votes for Brexit.

The Prime Minister cited Treasury analysis that suggests a fall in the value of the pound after leaving the EU would send the cost for flights, hotel accommodation and meals abroad soaring.

He also warned that Britons could lose rights to travel to EU countries without a visa and have holiday homes abroad if voters back Brexit. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/24/eu-referendum-tories-threaten-david-cameron-with-no-confidence-v/

Lol - good of you to post important messages from the Remain camp.

Monksfield

felix said:

Plato_Says said:

FFS

'The Bank of England might intervene again in the European Union referendum debate just days before Britons vote, Mark Carney has said.

The Bank of England’s Governor told MPs that he could not rule out that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will further comment on June 16 when it publishes minutes of its last meeting...'

and

'David Cameron today claimed the cost of a family summer holiday to the Mediterranean and other popular EU destinations could rise by £230 if the country votes for Brexit.

The Prime Minister cited Treasury analysis that suggests a fall in the value of the pound after leaving the EU would send the cost for flights, hotel accommodation and meals abroad soaring.

He also warned that Britons could lose rights to travel to EU countries without a visa and have holiday homes abroad if voters back Brexit. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/24/eu-referendum-tories-threaten-david-cameron-with-no-confidence-v/

Lol - good of you to post important messages from the Remain camp.

Bwahaha!

MonikerDiCanio

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

Every Remainer will think meanly of himself for being one. They're a pathetic bunch.

Casino_Royale

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative

I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.

Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.

Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.

Correct. Which begs the question how good the phone polls are if call filtering is so good these days, and the response rates so low.

Perhaps those who take unsolicted phone poll calls are equally keen.

Or at least atypical in some way. Heck, maybe they are just less irritable than the norm. That alone would be a problem, I think.

Let's face it: none of us know what's going on, and none of us know any better than anyone else what the result is going to be.

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

Lol ;-)

ydoethur

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

Point of order Mr L, but there is no reason to update the antivirus if all plugs and therefore the router are switched off.

I would get out more, but it just isn't as much fun as being a pedant.

MP_SE

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

Plato_Says

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Sunil_Prasannan

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

Millennium smug

DavidL

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

Point of order Mr L, but there is no reason to update the antivirus if all plugs and therefore the router are switched off.

I would get out more, but it just isn't as much fun as being a pedant.

Just choked on my tea. Very funny.

Plato_Says

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/735177958957056000

dr_spyn

Tory Expense Scandal - thanks to phone hcaking is The Mirror short of cash?

tlg86

Peter Kellner says Remain "has it in the bag" if turnout is over 60%. And, interestingly, he thinks the harder to reach people (i.e. the ones you have to go back to a few times before getting a response) are more likely to be for remain.

David_Evershed

I suggst some polls should be carried out by post in order to simulate postal voting.

VapidBilge

David_Evershed said:

Perhaps polls should only be carried out on a Thursday to simulate the actual election day.

Which groups are less able to vote on a Thursday?

Those that fill in postal votes.

DavidL

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?

Wanderer

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative

I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.

Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.

Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.

Correct. Which begs the question how good the phone polls are if call filtering is so good these days, and the response rates so low.

Perhaps those who take unsolicted phone poll calls are equally keen.

Or at least atypical in some way. Heck, maybe they are just less irritable than the norm. That alone would be a problem, I think.

Let's face it: none of us know what's going on, and none of us know any better than anyone else what the result is going to be.

That's what I keep telling myself when I look at the red number next to Remain in Betfair.

Yorkcity

To use a boxing analogy .

This does not feel like the Muhammad Ali v George Foreman 1974 fight . Where leave is Ali taking all the punches on the ropes, but to eventually land the knock out blow after remain have tired themselves out.

It has become an Ali v Richard Dunn 1976 fight where leave is Dunn the plucky Yorkshireman.

1976-05-24 : Muhammad Ali 220 lbs beat Richard Dunn 206½ lbs by TKO at 2:05 in round 5 of 15
Location: Olympiahalle, Munich, Bayern, Germany
Referee: Herbert Tomser
World Boxing Council Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
World Boxing Association Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
Notes

Ali dropped Dunn three times in the fourth and twice in the fifth.
This was Ali's last knockout win.

This might be Cameron`s last win.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

DavidL said:

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?

But what about the wardrobe monsters?

DavidL

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

Wanderer

Yorkcity said:

To use a boxing analogy .

This does not feel like the Muhammad Ali v George Foreman 1974 fight . Where leave is Ali taking all the punches on the ropes, but to eventually land the knock out blow after remain have tired themselves out.

It has become an Ali v Richard Dunn 1976 fight where leave is Dunn the plucky Yorkshireman.

1976-05-24 : Muhammad Ali 220 lbs beat Richard Dunn 206½ lbs by TKO at 2:05 in round 5 of 15
Location: Olympiahalle, Munich, Bayern, Germany
Referee: Herbert Tomser
World Boxing Council Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
World Boxing Association Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
Notes

Ali dropped Dunn three times in the fourth and twice in the fifth.
This was Ali's last knockout win.

This might be Cameron`s last win.

I genuinely do think Leave has a much much better chance than that.

foxinsoxuk

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.

MP_SE

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative

I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.

Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.

Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.

Correct. Which begs the question how good the phone polls are if call filtering is so good these days, and the response rates so low.

Perhaps those who take unsolicted phone poll calls are equally keen.

Or at least atypical in some way. Heck, maybe they are just less irritable than the norm. That alone would be a problem, I think.

Let's face it: none of us know what's going on, and none of us know any better than anyone else what the result is going to be.

That's what I keep telling myself when I look at the red number next to Remain in Betfair.

I can cash out £281 profit on Betfair thanks to backing Remain at 1.50. My overall average across all bookies is 1.40. I really wish I topped up when Remain went back up to 1.50 several months ago (if I remember correctly). I see little to no value in Remain at the current odds.

DavidL

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?

But what about the wardrobe monsters?

How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsTonight/status/735178566392905728

chestnut

http://www.cityam.com/241739/why-brexit-wont-be-a-disaster-and-as-former-city-minister-i-should-know

Plato_Says

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

Ha! You're forever in a basque and fishnets

Plato_Says

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?

But what about the wardrobe monsters?

How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?

You're on a roll this evening

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsTonight/status/735178566392905728

So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?

Colour me sceptical.

Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.

DavidL

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.

That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?

But what about the wardrobe monsters?

How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?

What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.

Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.

One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.

I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.

MonikerDiCanio

Yorkcity said:

To use a boxing analogy .

This does not feel like the Muhammad Ali v George Foreman 1974 fight . Where leave is Ali taking all the punches on the ropes, but to eventually land the knock out blow after remain have tired themselves out.

It has become an Ali v Richard Dunn 1976 fight where leave is Dunn the plucky Yorkshireman.

1976-05-24 : Muhammad Ali 220 lbs beat Richard Dunn 206½ lbs by TKO at 2:05 in round 5 of 15
Location: Olympiahalle, Munich, Bayern, Germany
Referee: Herbert Tomser
World Boxing Council Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
World Boxing Association Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
Notes

Ali dropped Dunn three times in the fourth and twice in the fifth.
This was Ali's last knockout win.

This might be Cameron`s last win.

It's Clay ( Leave ) v Liston ( Remain ) 1.
"Clay was a seven to one betting underdog. Of the 46 sportswriters at ringside, 43 had picked Sonny Liston to win by knockout."
We'll shock the world.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsTonight/status/735178566392905728

So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?

Colour me sceptical.

Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.

Doesn't his Mrs get a humdinger of a pension from the EU?

DavidL

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?

But what about the wardrobe monsters?

How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?

What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.

Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!

Some might say that clarity as to what our trading relationship with the EU is going to be might have been helpful too but what do I know?

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsTonight/status/735178566392905728

So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?

Colour me sceptical.

Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.

It's hard to know which is getting it right, and which wrong.

Internet polls suffer from the fact that you have to join a panel, to earn perhaps two quid for wasting spending three or four hours a month filling in surveys. I don't know what other people think, but I'm not convinced that will generate a particularly representative sample.

Phone polls suffer from (a) the increased prevalence of mobile phones, (b) appallingly low response rates, and (c) a natural tendency of respondents to give the answer the person asking is hoping for. (Alternatively, if it's a robo-call system, you get even lower response rates...)

On June 24th, I'll let you guys know whether I think phone or Internet polling is more reliable WRT to the EU referendum.

Sean_F

Verulamius said:

Matt Singh has put his views forward on graduate over representation in polls.

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/the-case-against-phone-polls-is-not-proven.html/#more-1855

And, nor is the case against online polling. Both methods are potentially flawed.

Casino_Royale

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsTonight/status/735178566392905728

So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?

Colour me sceptical.

Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.

Doesn't his Mrs get a humdinger of a pension from the EU?

Yes. His wife was High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and established the European External Action Service (diplomatic arm).

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?

But what about the wardrobe monsters?

How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?

What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.

Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!

Some might say that clarity as to what our trading relationship with the EU is going to be might have been helpful too but what do I know?

What do any of us on here know?
We're just shooting the breeze for gits and shiggles.

DavidL

Plato_Says said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

Ha! You're forever in a basque and fishnets

Is the camera on my laptop on? Gosh.

rcs1000

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.

To be fair, a friend of mine is a Labour activist in Cambridge, and he told me repeatedly that Huppert had it in the bag. So, Lord Ashcroft was not the only one surprised by the result

Sean_F

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsTonight/status/735178566392905728

So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?

Colour me sceptical.

Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.

His colleagues clearly disagree with him.

foxinsoxuk

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.

That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.

Indeed, his polls were some of the worst. Perhaps because of his own dislike and disgruntlement with the Cameroons.

DavidL

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.

One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.

I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.

Unfortunately it does appear that one of those halves is slightly bigger than the other. We are left hoping they don't turn up.

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.

One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.

I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.

Perhaps we should bite the bullet and split the United Kingdom; maybe our divisions are just too great.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Casino_Royale said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsTonight/status/735178566392905728

So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?

Colour me sceptical.

Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.

Doesn't his Mrs get a humdinger of a pension from the EU?

Yes. His wife was High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and established the European External Action Service (diplomatic arm).

She had great training for the role.
Anyone who gets the exalted position of chair of Hertfordshire's health authority is destined for great things.
Hertfordshire doesn't title itself as 'County of Opportunity' for nothing you know.

Monksfield

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.

One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.

I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.

Perhaps we should bite the bullet and split the United Kingdom; maybe our divisions are just too great.

The map of the ensuing mess would be amusing

DavidL

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?

But what about the wardrobe monsters?

How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?

What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.

Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!

Some might say that clarity as to what our trading relationship with the EU is going to be might have been helpful too but what do I know?

What do any of us on here know?
We're just shooting the breeze for gits and shiggles.

What is this of what you speak? What is a gits and what is a shiggle? Do I want one?

Sean_F

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.

That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.

Indeed, his polls were some of the worst. Perhaps because of his own dislike and disgruntlement with the Cameroons.

Some of his constituency polls were very accurate (eg Scotland, Greater Bristol/Somerset). Others were way off the Mark.

another_richard

kle4 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?

The correct term is 'experienced'.

But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.

The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.

For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now

Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.

Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.

Alistair

My gut told me 58-42 to Remain, I haven't seen much to make me doubt my gut so far. My gut is suggesting revising to 59-41 but only provisionally.

Wanderer

Leave 5/5.1

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.

To be fair, a friend of mine is a Labour activist in Cambridge, and he told me repeatedly that Huppert had it in the bag. So, Lord Ashcroft was not the only one surprised by the result

Maybe they were misled by all the 'Winning here' posters?

VapidBilge

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?

But what about the wardrobe monsters?

How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?

What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.

Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!

Some might say that clarity as to what our trading relationship with the EU is going to be might have been helpful too but what do I know?

Whatever Leave say, the EU will say it's not a possibility.

Sean_F

another_richard said:

kle4 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?

The correct term is 'experienced'.

But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.

The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.

For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now

Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.

Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.

Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?

DavidL

VapidBilge said:

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?

But what about the wardrobe monsters?

How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?

What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.

Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!

Some might say that clarity as to what our trading relationship with the EU is going to be might have been helpful too but what do I know?

Whatever Leave say, the EU will say it's not a possibility.

Bastards. Who wants to be in bed with people like that?

Richard_Tyndall

Casino_Royale said:

Monksfield said:

Quick de-lurk - Just phone polled by someone or another on behalf of Britain In.

They didn't go big on demographics so assume they're going for a big sample.

Anyway, some of the teddy-throwing on here in the last 24 hours has been ace! And there's still a month to go..

Private poll most likely.

I have to say if I was phoned by someone who said they were from Britain In I would refuse to do their survey. Why should I give them the information they need to better target their campaign?

I am kind of surprised they said they were from one campaign or the other.

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.

One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.

I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.

Unfortunately it does appear that one of those halves is slightly bigger than the other. We are left hoping they don't turn up.

Depends which polls you believe...

Personally, I think England will be very close, and for Leave outside the cities.

In Wales, and NI and Scotland in particular, it'll be more lopsided.

Yorkcity

MonikerDiCanio said:

Yorkcity said:

To use a boxing analogy .

This does not feel like the Muhammad Ali v George Foreman 1974 fight . Where leave is Ali taking all the punches on the ropes, but to eventually land the knock out blow after remain have tired themselves out.

It has become an Ali v Richard Dunn 1976 fight where leave is Dunn the plucky Yorkshireman.

1976-05-24 : Muhammad Ali 220 lbs beat Richard Dunn 206½ lbs by TKO at 2:05 in round 5 of 15
Location: Olympiahalle, Munich, Bayern, Germany
Referee: Herbert Tomser
World Boxing Council Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
World Boxing Association Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
Notes

Ali dropped Dunn three times in the fourth and twice in the fifth.
This was Ali's last knockout win.

This might be Cameron`s last win.

It's Clay ( Leave ) v Liston ( Remain ) 1.
"Clay was a seven to one betting underdog. Of the 46 sportswriters at ringside, 43 had picked Sonny Liston to win by knockout."
We'll shock the world.

If leave win against the establishment orthodoxy, it will be the biggest shock since 1945 when ,Churchill lost to Attlee.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.

One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.

I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.

Perhaps we should bite the bullet and split the United Kingdom; maybe our divisions are just too great.

Alas, it's a values split. Not a geographical one.

DavidL

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

kle4 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?

The correct term is 'experienced'.

But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.

The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.

For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now

Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.

Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.

Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?

In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.

AnneJGP

DavidL said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

DavidL said:

MP_SE said:

DavidL said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.

I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.

I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.

And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?

But what about the wardrobe monsters?

How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?

They do exist. When a friend of mine got to his bedroom after a Friday night outing, the wardrobe staggered across the room and hit him. So he said.

rcs1000

Breaking news: http://gawker.com/is-donald-trump-s-hair-a-60-000-weave-a-gawker-invest-1777581357

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.

One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.

I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.

Perhaps we should bite the bullet and split the United Kingdom; maybe our divisions are just too great.

Alas, it's a values split. Not a geographical one.

Yeah, but we could do a bit of ethnic values cleansing.

Sean_F

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.

One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.

I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.

Unfortunately it does appear that one of those halves is slightly bigger than the other. We are left hoping they don't turn up.

Depends which polls you believe...

Personally, I think England will be very close, and for Leave outside the cities.

In Wales, and NI and Scotland in particular, it'll be more lopsided.

Today's ICM poll has Leave 3% ahead in England.

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

Breaking news: http://gawker.com/is-donald-trump-s-hair-a-60-000-weave-a-gawker-invest-1777581357

How are they still in business after that Hulk Hogan law suit? I would have thought the payout would bankrupt them, no?

surbiton

Alistair said:

My gut told me 58-42 to Remain, I haven't seen much to make me doubt my gut so far. My gut is suggesting revising to 59-41 but only provisionally.

Your gut is telling you whoppers. It is definitely 58 - 42 to Remain.

MarkHopkins

An Australian town in a "state of emergency" because of an immigration problem.

foxinsoxuk

Sean_F said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

Plato_Says said:

Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns

Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation

As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.

That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.

Indeed, his polls were some of the worst. Perhaps because of his own dislike and disgruntlement with the Cameroons.

Some of his constituency polls were very accurate (eg Scotland, Greater Bristol/Somerset). Others were way off the Mark.

The polls in scotland and concerning the LDs were more or less spot on, with very little of the much Lauded personal constituency vote. The problem was that people were unwilling to believe the scale of wipeout to SLAB and LDs.

The polls that were out were the ones looking at Lab/Con split in the English battlegrounds.

People are still unwilling to believe polls that do not meet their expectations.

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

Breaking news: http://gawker.com/is-donald-trump-s-hair-a-60-000-weave-a-gawker-invest-1777581357

Of the many things that worry me about the inevitable President Trump his hair, weird though it is, barely figures.