Lord Ashcroft Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation
As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.
That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.
Indeed, his polls were some of the worst. Perhaps because of his own dislike and disgruntlement with the Cameroons.
Some of his constituency polls were very accurate (eg Scotland, Greater Bristol/Somerset). Others were way off the Mark.
The polls in scotland and concerning the LDs were more or less spot on, with very little of the much Lauded personal constituency vote. The problem was that people were unwilling to believe the scale of wipeout to SLAB and LDs.
The polls that were out were the ones looking at Lab/Con split in the English battlegrounds.
People are still unwilling to believe polls that do not meet their expectations.
That's right and one should be as dispassionate as possible. I simply couldn't believe the .Lib Dems would go below 25 or SLAB be reduced to single figures.
Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?
But what about the wardrobe monsters?
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?
They do exist. When a friend of mine got to his bedroom after a Friday night outing, the wardrobe staggered across the room and hit him. So he said.
Do you fear they have an abusive relationship? Has he spoken to his MEP?
My gut told me 58-42 to Remain, I haven't seen much to make me doubt my gut so far. My gut is suggesting revising to 59-41 but only provisionally.
Your latest gut feeling 59 -41 feels correct to me at the moment. Cameron has been at Asda B&Q ,Easy Jet , he is hitting the so called hard working families over the head with a sledge hammer. I do feel a bit of sympathy for them, been dragged in by the managers to sit dutifully nodding away like a household pet dog. I hate attending meetings where you can not express your own opinions.
Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?
But what about the wardrobe monsters?
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?
They do exist. When a friend of mine got to his bedroom after a Friday night outing, the wardrobe staggered across the room and hit him. So he said.
Do you fear they have an abusive relationship? Has he spoken to his MEP?
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.
For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now
Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.
Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?
In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.
You need to go back as far as ..... Alistair Darling in March 2010 to find more accurate short term forecasts:
"As a result, I can tell the House that borrowing this year should now be £11bn lower than forecast, at £167bn."
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.
For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now
Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.
Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.
Cameron is wildly wrong with his immigration promises and Osborne is massively out with his borrowing pledges. This duo is no longer tolerable or supportable. Their every word and action should be viewed with extreme prejudice.
Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?
But what about the wardrobe monsters?
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?
They do exist. When a friend of mine got to his bedroom after a Friday night outing, the wardrobe staggered across the room and hit him. So he said.
Do you fear they have an abusive relationship? Has he spoken to his MEP?
Lord Ashcroft Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation
As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.
That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.
Indeed, his polls were some of the worst. Perhaps because of his own dislike and disgruntlement with the Cameroons.
Some of his constituency polls were very accurate (eg Scotland, Greater Bristol/Somerset). Others were way off the Mark.
The polls in scotland and concerning the LDs were more or less spot on, with very little of the much Lauded personal constituency vote. The problem was that people were unwilling to believe the scale of wipeout to SLAB and LDs.
The polls that were out were the ones looking at Lab/Con split in the English battlegrounds.
People are still unwilling to believe polls that do not meet their expectations.
That's right and one should be as dispassionate as possible. I simply couldn't believe the .Lib Dems would go below 25 or SLAB be reduced to single figures.
His polls in Scotland were not that accurate. He got the results broadly right but frankly any pollster who failed to pick up on the sort of swings the SNP got in 2015 really should pack it in. On average he underestimated the swings although it is hard to blame him for that given how many of us were looking on in disbelief.
My gut told me 58-42 to Remain, I haven't seen much to make me doubt my gut so far. My gut is suggesting revising to 59-41 but only provisionally.
Your latest gut feeling 59 -41 feels correct to me at the moment. Cameron has been at Asda B&Q ,Easy Jet , he is hitting the so called hard working families over the head with a sledge hammer. I do feel a bit of sympathy for them, been dragged in by the managers to sit dutifully nodding away like a household pet dog. I hate attending meetings where you can not express your own opinions.
'The Bank of England might intervene again in the European Union referendum debate just days before Britons vote, Mark Carney has said.
The Bank of England’s Governor told MPs that he could not rule out that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will further comment on June 16 when it publishes minutes of its last meeting...'
and
'David Cameron today claimed the cost of a family summer holiday to the Mediterranean and other popular EU destinations could rise by £230 if the country votes for Brexit.
The Prime Minister cited Treasury analysis that suggests a fall in the value of the pound after leaving the EU would send the cost for flights, hotel accommodation and meals abroad soaring.
When I wrote a piss-take post first thing this morning about internment camps in Spain, little did I realise it would become Remain's campaign message of the day.
My gut told me 58-42 to Remain, I haven't seen much to make me doubt my gut so far. My gut is suggesting revising to 59-41 but only provisionally.
Your latest gut feeling 59 -41 feels correct to me at the moment. Cameron has been at Asda B&Q ,Easy Jet , he is hitting the so called hard working families over the head with a sledge hammer. I do feel a bit of sympathy for them, been dragged in by the managers to sit dutifully nodding away like a household pet dog. I hate attending meetings where you can not express your own opinions.
I think to some extent the British electorate will self-correct.
I think they want (on balance) as small a Remain win as possible and will conspire to get it.
Hmm "quantum electrodynamics" - I was in a Bournemouth library and saw Weinbergers quantum electrodynamics on the shelf - my eyes bounced off the first page.
Quick de-lurk - Just phone polled by someone or another on behalf of Britain In.
They didn't go big on demographics so assume they're going for a big sample.
Anyway, some of the teddy-throwing on here in the last 24 hours has been ace! And there's still a month to go..
Private poll most likely.
I have to say if I was phoned by someone who said they were from Britain In I would refuse to do their survey. Why should I give them the information they need to better target their campaign?
I am kind of surprised they said they were from one campaign or the other.
You should have said George Osborne was very convincing, and the more of him on the telly the better.
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.
For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now
Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.
Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?
In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.
You need to go back as far as ..... Alistair Darling in March 2010 to find more accurate short term forecasts:
"As a result, I can tell the House that borrowing this year should now be £11bn lower than forecast, at £167bn."
I suppose missing by £12bn wasn't really that accurate but at least Darling underborrowed his prediction.
No that would be less accurate. Maybe the right way less accurate but still. This year is the first time Osborne has missed his year on year target. Might suggest less low hanging fruit, fewer tweaks that haven't been used and things getting tighter and tighter of course.
Lord Ashcroft Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation
As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.
That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.
Indeed, his polls were some of the worst. Perhaps because of his own dislike and disgruntlement with the Cameroons.
Some of his constituency polls were very accurate (eg Scotland, Greater Bristol/Somerset). Others were way off the Mark.
The polls in scotland and concerning the LDs were more or less spot on, with very little of the much Lauded personal constituency vote. The problem was that people were unwilling to believe the scale of wipeout to SLAB and LDs.
The polls that were out were the ones looking at Lab/Con split in the English battlegrounds.
People are still unwilling to believe polls that do not meet their expectations.
That's right and one should be as dispassionate as possible. I simply couldn't believe the .Lib Dems would go below 25 or SLAB be reduced to single figures.
The LibDems being reduced to 10% and below in constituencies in which they had been strong for decades, or even generations, was the most surprising thing to me.
Yet they held Carshalton by a bigger majority than in 2005.
So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?
Colour me sceptical.
Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.
It's hard to know which is getting it right, and which wrong.
Internet polls suffer from the fact that you have to join a panel, to earn perhaps two quid for wasting spending three or four hours a month filling in surveys. I don't know what other people think, but I'm not convinced that will generate a particularly representative sample.
Phone polls suffer from (a) the increased prevalence of mobile phones, (b) appallingly low response rates, and (c) a natural tendency of respondents to give the answer the person asking is hoping for. (Alternatively, if it's a robo-call system, you get even lower response rates...)
On June 24th, I'll let you guys know whether I think phone or Internet polling is more reliable WRT to the EU referendum.
I just can't see how the requirement to pre-register to take part in an online survey can produce a representative sample. It has to attract people with an interest to begin with which is atypical of the population at large.
This doesn't mean I necessarily think phone polls are the gold standard either. With the communication overload of modern life I suspect obtaining a really representative sample is going to become increasingly difficult. They might just have to dust off the old clip-boards and get out on the streets again.
My gut told me 58-42 to Remain, I haven't seen much to make me doubt my gut so far. My gut is suggesting revising to 59-41 but only provisionally.
Your latest gut feeling 59 -41 feels correct to me at the moment. Cameron has been at Asda B&Q ,Easy Jet , he is hitting the so called hard working families over the head with a sledge hammer. I do feel a bit of sympathy for them, been dragged in by the managers to sit dutifully nodding away like a household pet dog. I hate attending meetings where you can not express your own opinions.
When I worked in a major supermarket distribution centre in the early noughties, we had Alistair Darling (then transport minister) visit. He was only there to look at a new system of tracking goods through a warehouse operation, no speeches or anything. The flapping by senior management in the days prior to his visit was a sight to behold. Clean everything, paint anything that wasn't moving. Send most of the staff home early on the day etc. The visit lasted less than an hour.
Unfortunately the apocalyptic predictions have been so OTT, that this doesn't even register...the spoofers need to go more extreme to out do the supposed real claims.
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.
For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now
Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.
Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?
In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.
You need to go back as far as ..... Alistair Darling in March 2010 to find more accurate short term forecasts:
"As a result, I can tell the House that borrowing this year should now be £11bn lower than forecast, at £167bn."
I suppose missing by £12bn wasn't really that accurate but at least Darling underborrowed his prediction.
No that would be less accurate. Maybe the right way less accurate but still. This year is the first time Osborne has missed his year on year target. Might suggest less low hanging fruit, fewer tweaks that haven't been used and things getting tighter and tighter of course.
I see what you're saying.
But to be honest when the Treasury already has over 90% of that year's data you would expect the Budget to be accurate for the year which it is in. With self-assessment, the internet and ever more powerful computers things have been getting easier for the Treasury for years.
'The Bank of England might intervene again in the European Union referendum debate just days before Britons vote, Mark Carney has said.
The Bank of England’s Governor told MPs that he could not rule out that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will further comment on June 16 when it publishes minutes of its last meeting...'
and
'David Cameron today claimed the cost of a family summer holiday to the Mediterranean and other popular EU destinations could rise by £230 if the country votes for Brexit.
The Prime Minister cited Treasury analysis that suggests a fall in the value of the pound after leaving the EU would send the cost for flights, hotel accommodation and meals abroad soaring.
When I wrote a piss-take post first thing this morning about internment camps in Spain, little did I realise it would become Remain's campaign message of the day.
We'll have threats of Dover being bombarded by French artillery from Calais next.
I may sign out for a bit and come back when something interesting has happened. Am trying to recover from bronchitis so early nights are a good thing and there are the programmes on the Chelsea Flower Show to catch up on.
Obviously if we vote Leave and Armageddon happens it may not be possible to communicate anymore. Oh well....
I may sign out for a bit and come back when something interesting has happened. Am trying to recover from bronchitis so early nights are a good thing and there are the programmes on the Chelsea Flower Show to catch up on.
Obviously if we vote Leave and Armageddon happens it may not be possible to communicate anymore. Oh well....
To cheer you up, just over four weeks :-)
I'm going away for the BH weekend. No internet, no polls, no phone.
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.
For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now
Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.
Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?
In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.
You need to go back as far as ..... Alistair Darling in March 2010 to find more accurate short term forecasts:
"As a result, I can tell the House that borrowing this year should now be £11bn lower than forecast, at £167bn."
I suppose missing by £12bn wasn't really that accurate but at least Darling underborrowed his prediction.
No that would be less accurate. Maybe the right way less accurate but still. This year is the first time Osborne has missed his year on year target. Might suggest less low hanging fruit, fewer tweaks that haven't been used and things getting tighter and tighter of course.
I see what you're saying.
But to be honest when the Treasury already has over 90% of that year's data you would expect the Budget to be accurate for the year which it is in. With self-assessment, the internet and ever more powerful computers things have been getting easier for the Treasury for years.
It suggests to me that the economy is slowing more than Osborne or the OBR thought. Although the truly dreadful trade figures suggest demand remains buoyant. See @Alanbrooke for details.
What I truly don't get is that the argument that membership of the single market with whom we have this unsustainable deficit is critical to our future has barely been discussed let alone challenged.
Unfortunately the apocalyptic predictions have been so OTT, that this doesn't even register...the spoofers need to go more extreme to out do the supposed real claims.
I may sign out for a bit and come back when something interesting has happened. Am trying to recover from bronchitis so early nights are a good thing and there are the programmes on the Chelsea Flower Show to catch up on.
Obviously if we vote Leave and Armageddon happens it may not be possible to communicate anymore. Oh well....
Don't go, my stint as Guest Editor begins next week, and I've got some awesome puns lined up.
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.
For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now
Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.
Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?
In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.
You need to go back as far as ..... Alistair Darling in March 2010 to find more accurate short term forecasts:
"As a result, I can tell the House that borrowing this year should now be £11bn lower than forecast, at £167bn."
I suppose missing by £12bn wasn't really that accurate but at least Darling underborrowed his prediction.
No that would be less accurate. Maybe the right way less accurate but still. This year is the first time Osborne has missed his year on year target. Might suggest less low hanging fruit, fewer tweaks that haven't been used and things getting tighter and tighter of course.
I see what you're saying.
But to be honest when the Treasury already has over 90% of that year's data you would expect the Budget to be accurate for the year which it is in. With self-assessment, the internet and ever more powerful computers things have been getting easier for the Treasury for years.
There was a quote in Yes (Prime) Minister where they said that before the invention of the photo copier the Treasury officials had less to read and therefore less to confuse them. The gag could be updated to include computers.
My gut told me 58-42 to Remain, I haven't seen much to make me doubt my gut so far. My gut is suggesting revising to 59-41 but only provisionally.
Your latest gut feeling 59 -41 feels correct to me at the moment. Cameron has been at Asda B&Q ,Easy Jet , he is hitting the so called hard working families over the head with a sledge hammer. I do feel a bit of sympathy for them, been dragged in by the managers to sit dutifully nodding away like a household pet dog. I hate attending meetings where you can not express your own opinions.
It works though. You could end up the star of a YouTube moment if you meet people in the real world, so instead politicians now only appear in front of workers in massive aircraft hangars and distribution centres.
Interesting list of companies. If I were Farrow and Ball or Ottolenghi, I wouldn't be waiting for a call from No 10. Maybe the cast of Corrie should be ready instead.
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.
For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?
In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.
You need to go back as far as ..... Alistair Darling in March 2010 to find more accurate short term forecasts:
"As a result, I can tell the House that borrowing this year should now be £11bn lower than forecast, at £167bn."
I suppose missing by £12bn wasn't really that accurate but at least Darling underborrowed his prediction.
No that would be less accurate. Maybe the right way less accurate but still. This year is the first time Osborne has missed his year on year target. Might suggest less low hanging fruit, fewer tweaks that haven't been used and things getting tighter and tighter of course.
I see what you're saying.
But to be honest when the Treasury already has over 90% of that year's data you would expect the Budget to be accurate for the year which it is in. With self-assessment, the internet and ever more powerful computers things have been getting easier for the Treasury for years.
It suggests to me that the economy is slowing more than Osborne or the OBR thought. Although the truly dreadful trade figures suggest demand remains buoyant. See @Alanbrooke for details.
What I truly don't get is that the argument that membership of the single market with whom we have this unsustainable deficit is critical to our future has barely been discussed let alone challenged.
Where is the advantage in trying to pursue integration with a part of the World whose share of global output is inexorably declining?
I may sign out for a bit and come back when something interesting has happened. Am trying to recover from bronchitis so early nights are a good thing and there are the programmes on the Chelsea Flower Show to catch up on.
Obviously if we vote Leave and Armageddon happens it may not be possible to communicate anymore. Oh well....
Don't go, my stint as Guest Editor begins next week, and I've got some awesome puns lined up.
Stuck in the middle with EU.
Don't EU want me
Latest poll is an Ode To Joy for Remain/Leave
That sort of stuff.
If you're trying to tell us that OGH is away, maybe WW3 breaking out isn't just a joke.
I may sign out for a bit and come back when something interesting has happened. Am trying to recover from bronchitis so early nights are a good thing and there are the programmes on the Chelsea Flower Show to catch up on.
Obviously if we vote Leave and Armageddon happens it may not be possible to communicate anymore. Oh well....
Don't go, my stint as Guest Editor begins next week, and I've got some awesome puns lined up.
Peter Kellner says Remain "has it in the bag" if turnout is over 60%. And, interestingly, he thinks the harder to reach people (i.e. the ones you have to go back to a few times before getting a response) are more likely to be for remain.
There's fewer people harder to reach than me and I'm for Leave.
Kellner spinning again for Remain. Perhaps he should justify his troughing wife's (Baroness Ashton) 400k payment fron the EU for doing nothing
I suppose missing by £12bn wasn't really that accurate but at least Darling underborrowed his prediction.
No that would be less accurate. Maybe the right way less accurate but still. This year is the first time Osborne has missed his year on year target. Might suggest less low hanging fruit, fewer tweaks that haven't been used and things getting tighter and tighter of course.
I see what you're saying.
But to be honest when the Treasury already has over 90% of that year's data you would expect the Budget to be accurate for the year which it is in. With self-assessment, the internet and ever more powerful computers things have been getting easier for the Treasury for years.
It suggests to me that the economy is slowing more than Osborne or the OBR thought. Although the truly dreadful trade figures suggest demand remains buoyant. See @Alanbrooke for details.
What I truly don't get is that the argument that membership of the single market with whom we have this unsustainable deficit is critical to our future has barely been discussed let alone challenged.
Where is the advantage in trying to pursue integration with a part of the World whose share of global output is inexorably declining?
Its declining but it is large. The real problem is that they are much better at selling to us than we are to them. This means that most or possibly all of the benefits our economy supposedly gets by being in this single market are more than cancelled by the negative effect trade has on our GDP.
When you look at why this might have been so persistently the case we see that the single market in goods (which with honourable exceptions we are not brilliant at) is far more developed and appropriately regulated than the market in services. This has not worked to our advantage.
Last thing I remember, I was Running for the door I had to find the passage back To the place I was before "Relax, " said the Juncker, "We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! "
I’ve got that old feeling again. No, not that one, the other one, that feeling of being bludgeoned by a baseball bat of a political campaign. Let’s face it, the referendum battle is not going quite as those who lean to leave hoped it would, which is partly their own fault, and partly down to the efforts of a well-organised Remain team. If Leave loses look out for the score-settling on the Eurosceptic side. It’ll be like the Godfather crossed with a fractious AGM at a golf club in Surrey....
....The Leave team is not aided in any of this by the idiocy of the Continuity-UKIP crowd, who with their antics are gleefully inflicting maximum damage on the official campaign. It seems more likely by the day that the Faragists and their allies never wanted to win. The prize for them is an expanded, rebranded UKIP after a referendum defeat in which they can hope to hoover up 20% or so of the vote perpetuating a “stab in the back” myth. Brexit does not suit them at all. It would mean extinction for UKIP.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign.
My gut told me 58-42 to Remain, I haven't seen much to make me doubt my gut so far. My gut is suggesting revising to 59-41 but only provisionally.
Your latest gut feeling 59 -41 feels correct to me at the moment. Cameron has been at Asda B&Q ,Easy Jet , he is hitting the so called hard working families over the head with a sledge hammer. I do feel a bit of sympathy for them, been dragged in by the managers to sit dutifully nodding away like a household pet dog. I hate attending meetings where you can not express your own opinions.
When I worked in a major supermarket distribution centre in the early noughties, we had Alistair Darling (then transport minister) visit. He was only there to look at a new system of tracking goods through a warehouse operation, no speeches or anything. The flapping by senior management in the days prior to his visit was a sight to behold. Clean everything, paint anything that wasn't moving. Send most of the staff home early on the day etc. The visit lasted less than an hour.
It was ever thus.
Comedy drama of Prince Charles visiting a Yorkshire coal mine (with some great 1970s imagery):
Interesting article, and one could also quote this:
"Back to the EU… One knows deep down, as one did back in the early 2000s, that for all the impressive and slightly chilling power of the machine, the anti-Brexit scare stories are mostly garbage. Just as some us sensed it when Gordon Brown – that incompetent regulator of the banking system, boastful blowhard on the end of boom and bust – used to beat up Oliver Letwin and the Tory gang in the early 2000s over sums as titchy as £20bn. Within a few years Brown’s mismanagement of regulation and credit meant he (or we) had to spend more than double that £20bn on bailing out the banks.
That cockiness pre-Crash is what made the unravelling of the Project, via hubris and humiliation in autumn 2007 and the election that never was, so delicious. Before that, Blair and Brown sceptics had to put up with years of strutting. Attacking or critiquing them just bounced off for about a decade.
In a similar spirit, we are now treated daily to endless consensus drivel, crafted expertly by professional pedlars of piffle. We are expected to believe that the Treasury has a good handle now on what will pertain in 2030. Think that through. How useful would Treasury assessments in 1996 of the situation in 2010 have been? Not very is the answer. Human beings and economies are dynamic. Their unpredictable activities and developments cannot be plotted like straight lines on a graph and if people want “the facts” about the future they might as well ask for a recommendation on which horse will win the Grand National in 2030.
But fair play (or dirty play, all is fair in love and campaigns) to the Remain campaign for exploiting the weaknesses of Leave. If the Inners win on June 23rd there will at least be the spectacle of watching the attempted explanations of what looks likely to follow, if there is a downturn (look at the latest global trade volumes) and the cheap money bubble and housing market goes bang. If they win, the Tory Remainer team cannot blame Brexit. Also, the first time they try to complain about a single incursion by Brussels they’ll find out what happens. They’ll be baseball batted themselves by a media that knows they scammed their way to victory."
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?
In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.
snipped
No that would be less accurate. Maybe the right way less accurate but still. This year is the first time Osborne has missed his year on year target. Might suggest less low hanging fruit, fewer tweaks that haven't been used and things getting tighter and tighter of course.
I see what you're saying.
But to be honest when the Treasury already has over 90% of that year's data you would expect the Budget to be accurate for the year which it is in. With self-assessment, the internet and ever more powerful computers things have been getting easier for the Treasury for years.
There was a quote in Yes (Prime) Minister where they said that before the invention of the photo copier the Treasury officials had less to read and therefore less to confuse them. The gag could be updated to include computers.
Only too true. When I had to start working part-time I soon realised, there's a point at which you have to x hours simply in order to replay to all the e-mails, before you can think about doing any work.
I’ve got that old feeling again. No, not that one, the other one, that feeling of being bludgeoned by a baseball bat of a political campaign. Let’s face it, the referendum battle is not going quite as those who lean to leave hoped it would, which is partly their own fault, and partly down to the efforts of a well-organised Remain team. If Leave loses look out for the score-settling on the Eurosceptic side. It’ll be like the Godfather crossed with a fractious AGM at a golf club in Surrey....
....The Leave team is not aided in any of this by the idiocy of the Continuity-UKIP crowd, who with their antics are gleefully inflicting maximum damage on the official campaign. It seems more likely by the day that the Faragists and their allies never wanted to win. The prize for them is an expanded, rebranded UKIP after a referendum defeat in which they can hope to hoover up 20% or so of the vote perpetuating a “stab in the back” myth. Brexit does not suit them at all. It would mean extinction for UKIP.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign.
I wouldn't describe Cameron and Osborne's performances as 'professional' nor do I suspect that the referendum battle is going quite as those who lean to Remain hoped it would.
We really are watching the cavorting of a bunch of incompetent charlatans on all sides.
The only thing that can stop people laughing is the realisation that these clowns are also supposed to be governing the country.
Campaigning went well in Sheffield today, in one of the areas that I'd expect to contain a lot of stronger Remainers that might not be arsed to vote come June 23rd.
Was pleasantly surprised by the reception/anticipated turnout. Odd campaign cut throughs.
1) All those Leavers who want to spend £350 million per week on the NHS want to privatise the NHS don't they
2) I thought I canvassed Alanbrooke, 'that Osborne's a twat' but he's right on what Brexit means for the economy, Ed Balls said so.
I'm expecting turnout to be a higher than expected.
I'll be doing a more Leave friendly area later on this week will report back then.
My campaign reports at the GE last year were prescient and forecast the Tories doing well in West Yorkshire.
I’ve got that old feeling again. No, not that one, the other one, that feeling of being bludgeoned by a baseball bat of a political campaign. Let’s face it, the referendum battle is not going quite as those who lean to leave hoped it would, which is partly their own fault, and partly down to the efforts of a well-organised Remain team. If Leave loses look out for the score-settling on the Eurosceptic side. It’ll be like the Godfather crossed with a fractious AGM at a golf club in Surrey....
....The Leave team is not aided in any of this by the idiocy of the Continuity-UKIP crowd, who with their antics are gleefully inflicting maximum damage on the official campaign. It seems more likely by the day that the Faragists and their allies never wanted to win. The prize for them is an expanded, rebranded UKIP after a referendum defeat in which they can hope to hoover up 20% or so of the vote perpetuating a “stab in the back” myth. Brexit does not suit them at all. It would mean extinction for UKIP.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign.
Coild someone go and knock on 10,000 doors across the UK in a representative mix of housing, find out if the occupants have registered to vote, can be bothered to vote and if so are voting in or out and tell us what you find - otherwise we might as well be argiung over which balls are going to be picked out first from the national lottery.
Campaigning went well in Sheffield today, in one of the areas that I'd expect to contain a lot of stronger Remainers that might not be arsed to vote come June 23rd.
Was pleasantly surprised by the reception/anticipated turnout. Odd campaign cut throughs.
1) All those Leavers who want to spend £350 million per week on the NHS want to privatise the NHS don't they
2) I thought I canvassed Alanbrooke, 'that Osborne's a twat' but he's right on what Brexit means for the economy, Ed Balls said so.
I'm expecting turnout to be a higher than expected.
I'll be doing a more Leave friendly area later on this week will report back then.
My campaign reports at the GE last year were prescient and forecast the Tories doing well in West Yorkshire.
No offence, but I don't trust you or your reports to be objective.
Interesting article, and one could also quote this:
"Back to the EU… One knows deep down, as one did back in the early 2000s, that for all the impressive and slightly chilling power of the machine, the anti-Brexit scare stories are mostly garbage. Just as some us sensed it when Gordon Brown – that incompetent regulator of the banking system, boastful blowhard on the end of boom and bust – used to beat up Oliver Letwin and the Tory gang in the early 2000s over sums as titchy as £20bn. Within a few years Brown’s mismanagement of regulation and credit meant he (or we) had to spend more than double that £20bn on bailing out the banks.
That cockiness pre-Crash is what made the unravelling of the Project, via hubris and humiliation in autumn 2007 and the election that never was, so delicious. Before that, Blair and Brown sceptics had to put up with years of strutting. Attacking or critiquing them just bounced off for about a decade.
In a similar spirit, we are now treated daily to endless consensus drivel, crafted expertly by professional pedlars of piffle. We are expected to believe that the Treasury has a good handle now on what will pertain in 2030. Think that through. How useful would Treasury assessments in 1996 of the situation in 2010 have been? Not very is the answer. Human beings and economies are dynamic. Their unpredictable activities and developments cannot be plotted like straight lines on a graph and if people want “the facts” about the future they might as well ask for a recommendation on which horse will win the Grand National in 2030.
But fair play (or dirty play, all is fair in love and campaigns) to the Remain campaign for exploiting the weaknesses of Leave. If the Inners win on June 23rd there will at least be the spectacle of watching the attempted explanations of what looks likely to follow, if there is a downturn (look at the latest global trade volumes) and the cheap money bubble and housing market goes bang. If they win, the Tory Remainer team cannot blame Brexit. Also, the first time they try to complain about a single incursion by Brussels they’ll find out what happens. They’ll be baseball batted themselves by a media that knows they scammed their way to victory."
I was always likely to vote remain but the possibility of that result causing maximum damage to the Conservative party just incentivises me so much more.
Campaigning went well in Sheffield today, in one of the areas that I'd expect to contain a lot of stronger Remainers that might not be arsed to vote come June 23rd.
Was pleasantly surprised by the reception/anticipated turnout. Odd campaign cut throughs.
1) All those Leavers who want to spend £350 million per week on the NHS want to privatise the NHS don't they
2) I thought I canvassed Alanbrooke, 'that Osborne's a twat' but he's right on what Brexit means for the economy, Ed Balls said so.
I'm expecting turnout to be a higher than expected.
I'll be doing a more Leave friendly area later on this week will report back then.
My campaign reports at the GE last year were prescient and forecast the Tories doing well in West Yorkshire.
No offence, but I don't trust you or your reports to be objective.
Sorry.
That's what IOS said to me when I said the Tories were doing well in Pudsey and Elmet & Rothwell
Interesting article, and one could also quote this:
"Back to the EU… One knows deep down, as one did back in the early 2000s, that for all the impressive and slightly chilling power of the machine, the anti-Brexit scare stories are mostly garbage. Just as some us sensed it when Gordon Brown – that incompetent regulator of the banking system, boastful blowhard on the end of boom and bust – used to beat up Oliver Letwin and the Tory gang in the early 2000s over sums as titchy as £20bn. Within a few years Brown’s mismanagement of regulation and credit meant he (or we) had to spend more than double that £20bn on bailing out the banks.
That cockiness pre-Crash is what made the unravelling of the Project, via hubris and humiliation in autumn 2007 and the election that never was, so delicious. Before that, Blair and Brown sceptics had to put up with years of strutting. Attacking or critiquing them just bounced off for about a decade.
In a similar spirit, we are now treated daily to endless consensus drivel, crafted expertly by professional pedlars of piffle. We are expected to believe that the Treasury has a good handle now on what will pertain in 2030. Think that through. How useful would Treasury assessments in 1996 of the situation in 2010 have been? Not very is the answer. Human beings and economies are dynamic. Their unpredictable activities and developments cannot be plotted like straight lines on a graph and if people want “the facts” about the future they might as well ask for a recommendation on which horse will win the Grand National in 2030.
But fair play (or dirty play, all is fair in love and campaigns) to the Remain campaign for exploiting the weaknesses of Leave. If the Inners win on June 23rd there will at least be the spectacle of watching the attempted explanations of what looks likely to follow, if there is a downturn (look at the latest global trade volumes) and the cheap money bubble and housing market goes bang. If they win, the Tory Remainer team cannot blame Brexit. Also, the first time they try to complain about a single incursion by Brussels they’ll find out what happens. They’ll be baseball batted themselves by a media that knows they scammed their way to victory."
History repeats itself as farce. If Remain win, there will be years of buyers' remorse among centre right voters who reluctantly voted Remain.
Campaigning went well in Sheffield today, in one of the areas that I'd expect to contain a lot of stronger Remainers that might not be arsed to vote come June 23rd.
Was pleasantly surprised by the reception/anticipated turnout. Odd campaign cut throughs.
1) All those Leavers who want to spend £350 million per week on the NHS want to privatise the NHS don't they
2) I thought I canvassed Alanbrooke, 'that Osborne's a twat' but he's right on what Brexit means for the economy, Ed Balls said so.
I'm expecting turnout to be a higher than expected.
I'll be doing a more Leave friendly area later on this week will report back then.
My campaign reports at the GE last year were prescient and forecast the Tories doing well in West Yorkshire.
No offence, but I don't trust you or your reports to be objective.
Sorry.
That's what IOS said to me when I said the Tories were doing well in Pudsey and Elmet & Rothwell
Lord Ashcroft Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pation
As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.
That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.
Indeed, his polls were some of the worst. Perhaps because of his own dislike and disgruntlement with the Cameroons.
Some of his constituency polls were very accurate (eg Scotland, Greater Bristol/Somerset). Others were way off the Mark.
The polls in scotland and concerning the LDs were more or less spot on, with very little of the much Lauded personal constituency vote. The problem was that people were unwilling to believe the scale of wipeout to SLAB and LDs.
The polls that were out were the ones looking at Lab/Con split in the English battlegrounds.
People are still unwilling to believe polls that do not meet their expectations.
That's right and one should be as dispassionate as possible. I simply couldn't believe the .Lib Dems would go below 25 or SLAB be reduced to single figures.
His polls in Scotland were not that accurate. He got the results broadly right but frankly any pollster who failed to pick up on the sort of swings the SNP got in 2015 really should pack it in. On average he underestimated the swings although it is hard to blame him for that given how many of us were looking on in disbelief.
I wasn't meaning specifically Ascroft in Scotland. I yield to no one in terms of scepticism of how pollsters arrive at their samples, but amid the polling debacle in Lab/Con marginals, the polls were prettyy accurate on UKIP, SNP, LD and Green. I think the Lab/Con errors were down to the choice of Ed vs Dave as PM. The people preferred Dave. My more lucrative Constituency bets were for SNP in "SLAB safe seats" and against LD in "LD safe seats" and against UKIP in "target seats". I simply believed the polls that others did not.
Polling for referenda is another kettle of fish, and even more subject to error. My bets are on Leave but I am also in the green on Remain 60% plus, and also happy with my turnout position.
I can - kind of - comprehend a Tory reluctantly voting REMAIN, with teeth clenched and nose pegged.
But to go out and canvass for EU membership.
It's like discovering your hitherto pleasant neighbour is not just a collaborator, but is actually fucking a Gestapo officer.
You do realise some people think remaining is a good idea. Why should it be shocking that they canvas for what they believe in?
This may be back to the 2 nations thing discussed earlier but I honestly really struggle to imagine the mind set of someone who thought the EU in its current form was a good idea. I can very easily understand the mind set of someone who thought that it was not great but all the alternatives were worse and not worth the disruption. But EU = good? I mean, seriously?
TSE gets a buzz from political campaigning. The reason for campaigning is not the main point. Fair enough. We all have hobbies and some are more self destructive.
Interesting article, and one could also quote this:
"Back to the EU… One knows deep down, as one did back in the early 2000s, that for all the impressive and slightly chilling power of the machine, the anti-Brexit scare stories are mostly garbage. Just as some us sensed it when Gordon Brown – that incompetent regulator of the banking system, boastful blowhard on the end of boom and bust – used to beat up Oliver Letwin and the Tory gang in the early 2000s over sums as titchy as £20bn. Within a few years Brown’s mismanagement of regulation and credit meant he (or we) had to spend more than double that £20bn on bailing out the banks.
That cockiness pre-Crash is what made the unravelling of the Project, via hubris and humiliation in autumn 2007 and the election that never was, so delicious. Before that, Blair and Brown sceptics had to put up with years of strutting. Attacking or critiquing them just bounced off for about a decade.
In a similar spirit, we are now treated daily to endless consensus drivel, crafted expertly by professional pedlars of piffle. We are expected to believe that the Treasury has a good handle now on what will pertain in 2030. Think that through. How useful would Treasury assessments in 1996 of the situation in 2010 have been? Not very is the answer. Human beings and economies are dynamic. Their unpredictable activities and developments cannot be plotted like straight lines on a graph and if people want “the facts” about the future they might as well ask for a recommendation on which horse will win the Grand National in 2030.
But fair play (or dirty play, all is fair in love and campaigns) to the Remain campaign for exploiting the weaknesses of Leave. If the Inners win on June 23rd there will at least be the spectacle of watching the attempted explanations of what looks likely to follow, if there is a downturn (look at the latest global trade volumes) and the cheap money bubble and housing market goes bang. If they win, the Tory Remainer team cannot blame Brexit. Also, the first time they try to complain about a single incursion by Brussels they’ll find out what happens. They’ll be baseball batted themselves by a media that knows they scammed their way to victory."
I was always likely to vote remain but the possibility of that result causing maximum damage to the Conservative party just incentivises me so much more.
It is always sensible to help one's opponents to harm themselves.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign
@gabyhinsliff: Don't understand what Brexiters moaning about how PM's run this referendum actually expected. Don't they remember the AVref? Indyref? GE?
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign
@gabyhinsliff: Don't understand what Brexiters moaning about how PM's run this referendum actually expected. Don't they remember the AVref? Indyref? GE?
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign
@gabyhinsliff: Don't understand what Brexiters moaning about how PM's run this referendum actually expected. Don't they remember the AVref? Indyref? GE?
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
It does make you wonder.
The campaign isn't good, it's relentlessly negative and frankly in my view counter-productive to both the actual campaign (though obviously many on the remain side will disagree) and democracy. However what it isn't is unexpected. Accordingly, you'd have thought someone in Leave might have had a plan.
It could be a Hannibal type plan, in which case it's quite cleaver but I have yet to see the horns let alone them closing in.
In many ways this was all about timing and the PM has picked his optimum time.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign
@gabyhinsliff: Don't understand what Brexiters moaning about how PM's run this referendum actually expected. Don't they remember the AVref? Indyref? GE?
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
Like Blair and Iraq, if Cameron wins this, it will have been a victory over his own side.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign
@gabyhinsliff: Don't understand what Brexiters moaning about how PM's run this referendum actually expected. Don't they remember the AVref? Indyref? GE?
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
Very hard to argue with any of that to be honest. Leave are feeling like Lib Dems on 6th May last year. Mugged.
But there are still these slightly oddly styled TV debates. Its not over yet.
I’ve got that old feeling again. No, not that one, the other one, that feeling of being bludgeoned by a baseball bat of a political campaign. Let’s face it, the referendum battle is not going quite as those who lean to leave hoped it would, which is partly their own fault, and partly down to the efforts of a well-organised Remain team. If Leave loses look out for the score-settling on the Eurosceptic side. It’ll be like the Godfather crossed with a fractious AGM at a golf club in Surrey....
....The Leave team is not aided in any of this by the idiocy of the Continuity-UKIP crowd, who with their antics are gleefully inflicting maximum damage on the official campaign. It seems more likely by the day that the Faragists and their allies never wanted to win. The prize for them is an expanded, rebranded UKIP after a referendum defeat in which they can hope to hoover up 20% or so of the vote perpetuating a “stab in the back” myth. Brexit does not suit them at all. It would mean extinction for UKIP.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign.
Sadly, I think sometimes that Nigel Farage would prefer a narrow Remain win. It makes 20 UKIP seats in 2020 a possibility, and therefore increases his likelihood of being A Big Man (TM).
I can - kind of - comprehend a Tory reluctantly voting REMAIN, with teeth clenched and nose pegged.
But to go out and canvass for EU membership.
It's like discovering your hitherto pleasant neighbour is not just a collaborator, but is actually fucking a Gestapo officer.
You do realise some people think remaining is a good idea. Why should it be shocking that they canvas for what they believe in?
This may be back to the 2 nations thing discussed earlier but I honestly really struggle to imagine the mind set of someone who thought the EU in its current form was a good idea. I can very easily understand the mind set of someone who thought that it was not great but all the alternatives were worse and not worth the disruption. But EU = good? I mean, seriously?
TSE gets a buzz from political campaigning. The reason for campaigning is not the main point. Fair enough. We all have hobbies and some are more self destructive.
It's a binary choice. There's no real meaning to being a reluctant this or that. If you lean just slightly one way you may as well throw yourself into it.
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?
In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.
snipped
No that would be less accurate. Maybe the right way less accurate but still. This year is the first time Osborne has missed his year on year target. Might suggest less low hanging fruit, fewer tweaks that haven't been used and things getting tighter and tighter of course.
I see what you're saying.
But to be honest when the Treasury already has over 90% of that year's data you would expect the Budget to be accurate for the year which it is in. With self-assessment, the internet and ever more powerful computers things have been getting easier for the Treasury for years.
There was a quote in Yes (Prime) Minister where they said that before the invention of the photo copier the Treasury officials had less to read and therefore less to confuse them. The gag could be updated to include computers.
Only too true. When I had to start working part-time I soon realised, there's a point at which you have to x hours simply in order to replay to all the e-mails, before you can think about doing any work.
Email is regarded as a potential cause of the productivity stagnation of the last decade.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign
@gabyhinsliff: Don't understand what Brexiters moaning about how PM's run this referendum actually expected. Don't they remember the AVref? Indyref? GE?
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
Tories are naive twats ?
It's hard to disagree with that thesis. Like Gaby Hinsliff, I can't begin to work out what Conservative Leavers were expecting the Prime Minister to do during this campaign. I doubt he's played Ludo with his children without trying to win.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign
@gabyhinsliff: Don't understand what Brexiters moaning about how PM's run this referendum actually expected. Don't they remember the AVref? Indyref? GE?
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
It does make you wonder.
The campaign isn't good, it's relentlessly negative and frankly in my view counter-productive to both the actual campaign (though obviously many on the remain side will disagree) and democracy. However what it isn't is unexpected. Accordingly, you'd have thought someone in Leave might have had a plan.
It could be a Hannibal type plan, in which case it's quite cleaver but I have yet to see the horns let alone them closing in.
In many ways this was all about timing and the PM has picked his optimum time.
The Remain Campaign is following the 1992 election strategy to a 't'.
This is a rerun of Labour's £2,000 Tax Bombshell.
And - then as now - it is likely to be sadly successful.
Fortunately, then as now, it is likely to be reversed five years later, as it sows the seeds of its own destruction.
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?
In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.
snipped
No that would be less accurate. Maybe the right way less accurate but still. This year is the first time Osborne has missed his year on year target. Might suggest less low hanging fruit, fewer tweaks that haven't been used and things getting tighter and tighter of course.
I see what you're saying.
But to be honest when the Treasury already has over 90% of that year's data you would expect the Budget to be accurate for the year which it is in. With self-assessment, the internet and ever more powerful computers things have been getting easier for the Treasury for years.
There was a quote in Yes (Prime) Minister where they said that before the invention of the photo copier the Treasury officials had less to read and therefore less to confuse them. The gag could be updated to include computers.
Only too true. When I had to start working part-time I soon realised, there's a point at which you have to x hours simply in order to replay to all the e-mails, before you can think about doing any work.
Email is regarded as a potential cause of the productivity stagnation of the last decade.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign
@gabyhinsliff: Don't understand what Brexiters moaning about how PM's run this referendum actually expected. Don't they remember the AVref? Indyref? GE?
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
Very hard to argue with any of that to be honest. Leave are feeling like Lib Dems on 6th May last year. Mugged.
But there are still these slightly oddly styled TV debates. Its not over yet.
I do admire the professionalism of the REMAIN campaign, the same way I admire, I dunno, successful executioners. It's not pretty, but it's not easy either: to do it well without a thought for the deeper morality. They must close their minds, and get on with the job.
But one can't help wondering what Cameron might have achieved if he'd applied these ruthless skills to winning a successful fucking renegotiation of EU membership. But he didn't. Because he is a lying, careerist skunk.
Also, the 27 other heads of state in the EU are smarter than Arron Banks and Nigel Farage.
Campaigning went well in Sheffield today, in one of the areas that I'd expect to contain a lot of stronger Remainers that might not be arsed to vote come June 23rd.
Was pleasantly surprised by the reception/anticipated turnout. Odd campaign cut throughs.
1) All those Leavers who want to spend £350 million per week on the NHS want to privatise the NHS don't they
2) I thought I canvassed Alanbrooke, 'that Osborne's a twat' but he's right on what Brexit means for the economy, Ed Balls said so.
I'm expecting turnout to be a higher than expected.
I'll be doing a more Leave friendly area later on this week will report back then.
My campaign reports at the GE last year were prescient and forecast the Tories doing well in West Yorkshire.
This chimes in with my campaigning experience with Labour In campaign in London (how many people here are actually campaigning in this referendum rather than just talking about it??)
Remain well ahead in my area - Leaves found in significant numbers only on social housing estates - very few in private property.
High level of interest, I would expect general election level turnout. Leaves are older, poorer, angrier - blame all their troubles on immigrants.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign
@gabyhinsliff: Don't understand what Brexiters moaning about how PM's run this referendum actually expected. Don't they remember the AVref? Indyref? GE?
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
Tories are naive twats ?
It's hard to disagree with that thesis. Like Gaby Hinsliff, I can't begin to work out what Conservative Leavers were expecting the Prime Minister to do during this campaign. I doubt he's played Ludo with his children without trying to win.
normally I'd let discetion be the better part of valour and not comment on blue on blue but Scott Paster insists on saying
ALL TORIES ARE PSYCOPATHIC INCOHERENT LYING BASTARD DOG FUCKING INNUMERATE JIMMY SAVILLE SADOMASOHCISTIC SCUM
I can - kind of - comprehend a Tory reluctantly voting REMAIN, with teeth clenched and nose pegged.
But to go out and canvass for EU membership.
It's like discovering your hitherto pleasant neighbour is not just a collaborator, but is actually fucking a Gestapo officer.
You do realise some people think remaining is a good idea. Why should it be shocking that they canvas for what they believe in?
This may be back to the 2 nations thing discussed earlier but I honestly really struggle to imagine the mind set of someone who thought the EU in its current form was a good idea. I can very easily understand the mind set of someone who thought that it was not great but all the alternatives were worse and not worth the disruption. But EU = good? I mean, seriously?
TSE gets a buzz from political campaigning. The reason for campaigning is not the main point. Fair enough. We all have hobbies and some are more self destructive.
I was quite content to sit out this referendum campaign, but I was moved into campaign for remain the moment people started openly talking about using the referendum to topple Dave and replace him with someone like Liam Fucking Fox.
Was the moment I decided 'Tory Leavers delenda est'
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign
@gabyhinsliff: Don't understand what Brexiters moaning about how PM's run this referendum actually expected. Don't they remember the AVref? Indyref? GE?
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
Very hard to argue with any of that to be honest. Leave are feeling like Lib Dems on 6th May last year. Mugged.
But there are still these slightly oddly styled TV debates. Its not over yet.
I do admire the professionalism of the REMAIN campaign, the same way I admire, I dunno, successful executioners. It's not pretty, but it's not easy either: to do it well without a thought for the deeper morality. They must close their minds, and get on with the job.
But one can't help wondering what Cameron might have achieved if he'd applied these ruthless skills to winning a successful fucking renegotiation of EU membership. But he didn't. Because he is a lying, careerist skunk.
Also, the 27 other heads of state in the EU are smarter than Arron Banks and Nigel Farage.
Sadly.
I think it's unfair to blame Farage/Banks. They aren't the main Leave campaign.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign
@gabyhinsliff: Don't understand what Brexiters moaning about how PM's run this referendum actually expected. Don't they remember the AVref? Indyref? GE?
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
It does make you wonder.
The campaign isn't good, it's relentlessly negative and frankly in my view counter-productive to both the actual campaign (though obviously many on the remain side will disagree) and democracy. However what it isn't is unexpected. Accordingly, you'd have thought someone in Leave might have had a plan.
It could be a Hannibal type plan, in which case it's quite cleaver but I have yet to see the horns let alone them closing in.
In many ways this was all about timing and the PM has picked his optimum time.
The Remain Campaign is following the 1992 election strategy to a 't'. This is a rerun of Labour's £2,000 Tax Bombshell. And - then as now - it is likely to be sadly successful. Fortunately, then as now, it is likely to be reversed five years later, as it sows the seeds of its own destruction.
Having aired most of the EU issues and them being denied/waved off by "the great and the good", there are a lot of armed mines lined up ahead for the EU issue to set off in the next few years, or maybe months.
"oh dear Mr PM we have this ruling from europe to ....give votes to prisoners and you must pay some prisoners compensation for denying the right to vote.... etc etc" Multiply by a hundred other examples for many newspapers to go after.
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?
In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.
snipped
No that would be less accurate. Maybe the right way less accurate but still. This year is the first time Osborne has missed his year on year target. Might suggest less low hanging fruit, fewer tweaks that haven't been used and things getting tighter and tighter of course.
I see what you're saying.
But to be honest when the Treasury already has over 90% of that year's data you would expect the Budget to be accurate for the year which it is in. With self-assessment, the internet and ever more powerful computers things have been getting easier for the Treasury for years.
There was a quote in Yes (Prime) Minister where they said that before the invention of the photo copier the Treasury officials had less to read and therefore less to confuse them. The gag could be updated to include computers.
Only too true. When I had to start working part-time I soon realised, there's a point at which you have to x hours simply in order to replay to all the e-mails, before you can think about doing any work.
Email is regarded as a potential cause of the productivity stagnation of the last decade.
Only potential? Electronic comms have enabled a level of director-level control freakery that has completely paralysed some workplaces. Back In the day middle managers had to be simply trusted to do the job, now they spend half their time on nugatory management of the next level up. Lunacy.
I can - kind of - comprehend a Tory reluctantly voting REMAIN, with teeth clenched and nose pegged.
But to go out and canvass for EU membership.
It's like discovering your hitherto pleasant neighbour is not just a collaborator, but is actually fucking a Gestapo officer.
You do realise some people think remaining is a good idea. Why should it be shocking that they canvas for what they believe in?
This may be back to the 2 nations thing discussed earlier but I honestly really struggle to imagine the mind set of someone who thought the EU in its current form was a good idea. I can very easily understand the mind set of someone who thought that it was not great but all the alternatives were worse and not worth the disruption. But EU = good? I mean, seriously?
TSE gets a buzz from political campaigning. The reason for campaigning is not the main point. Fair enough. We all have hobbies and some are more self destructive.
I was quite content to sit out this referendum campaign, but I was moved into campaign for remain the moment people started openly talking about using the referendum to topple Dave and replace him with someone like Liam Fucking Fox.
Was the moment I decided 'Tory Leavers delenda est'
I find it hard it hard to understand how someone can adore a politician as you do Cameron. I guess it must be like the way some people once viewed Blair.
I can - kind of - comprehend a Tory reluctantly voting REMAIN, with teeth clenched and nose pegged.
But to go out and canvass for EU membership.
It's like discovering your hitherto pleasant neighbour is not just a collaborator, but is actually fucking a Gestapo officer.
You do realise some people think remaining is a good idea. Why should it be shocking that they canvas for what they believe in?
This may be back to the 2 nations thing discussed earlier but I honestly really struggle to imagine the mind set of someone who thought the EU in its current form was a good idea. I can very easily understand the mind set of someone who thought that it was not great but all the alternatives were worse and not worth the disruption. But EU = good? I mean, seriously?
TSE gets a buzz from political campaigning. The reason for campaigning is not the main point. Fair enough. We all have hobbies and some are more self destructive.
I was quite content to sit out this referendum campaign, but I was moved into campaign for remain the moment people started openly talking about using the referendum to topple Dave and replace him with someone like Liam Fucking Fox.
Was the moment I decided 'Tory Leavers delenda est'
ROFL yeah like that;s going to happen
You might as well invade Russia because you don't like blinis.
Lets face it youre spineless and need to feel wanted by toffs
Campaigning went well in Sheffield today, in one of the areas that I'd expect to contain a lot of stronger Remainers that might not be arsed to vote come June 23rd.
Was pleasantly surprised by the reception/anticipated turnout. Odd campaign cut throughs.
1) All those Leavers who want to spend £350 million per week on the NHS want to privatise the NHS don't they
2) I thought I canvassed Alanbrooke, 'that Osborne's a twat' but he's right on what Brexit means for the economy, Ed Balls said so.
I'm expecting turnout to be a higher than expected.
I'll be doing a more Leave friendly area later on this week will report back then.
My campaign reports at the GE last year were prescient and forecast the Tories doing well in West Yorkshire.
This chimes in with my campaigning experience with Labour In campaign in London (how many people here are actually campaigning in this referendum rather than just talking about it??)
Remain well ahead in my area - Leaves found in significant numbers only on social housing estates - very few in private property.
High level of interest, I would expect general election level turnout. Leaves are older, poorer, angrier - blame all their troubles on immigrants.
Comments
As they say, in Yorkshire I think: " There's nowt so queer as folk. ".
It's not quantum electrodynamics. It's much harder.
Cameron has been at Asda B&Q ,Easy Jet , he is hitting the so called hard working families over the head with a sledge hammer.
I do feel a bit of sympathy for them, been dragged in by the managers to sit dutifully nodding away like a household pet dog.
I hate attending meetings where you can not express your own opinions.
"As a result, I can tell the House that borrowing this year should now be £11bn lower than forecast, at £167bn."
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/mar/24/budget-2010-chancellor-alistair-darling-speech-in-full
Actual borrowing for 2009-10 was 'only' £155bn.
I suppose missing by £12bn wasn't really that accurate but at least Darling underborrowed his prediction.
Ivari International is just one of the many names under which Edward Ivari (otherwise known as Mohammad Ali Ivari)
I think they want (on balance) as small a Remain win as possible and will conspire to get it.
Yet they held Carshalton by a bigger majority than in 2005.
This doesn't mean I necessarily think phone polls are the gold standard either. With the communication overload of modern life I suspect obtaining a really representative sample is going to become increasingly difficult. They might just have to dust off the old clip-boards and get out on the streets again.
He was only there to look at a new system of tracking goods through a warehouse operation, no speeches or anything.
The flapping by senior management in the days prior to his visit was a sight to behold.
Clean everything, paint anything that wasn't moving.
Send most of the staff home early on the day etc.
The visit lasted less than an hour.
But to be honest when the Treasury already has over 90% of that year's data you would expect the Budget to be accurate for the year which it is in. With self-assessment, the internet and ever more powerful computers things have been getting easier for the Treasury for years.
I may sign out for a bit and come back when something interesting has happened. Am trying to recover from bronchitis so early nights are a good thing and there are the programmes on the Chelsea Flower Show to catch up on.
Obviously if we vote Leave and Armageddon happens it may not be possible to communicate anymore. Oh well....
I'm going away for the BH weekend. No internet, no polls, no phone.
Can't wait.
http://www.cityam.com/241739/why-brexit-wont-be-a-disaster-and-as-former-city-minister-i-should-know
What I truly don't get is that the argument that membership of the single market with whom we have this unsustainable deficit is critical to our future has barely been discussed let alone challenged.
#truetory
Stuck in the middle with EU.
Don't EU want me
Latest poll is an Ode To Joy for Remain/Leave
That sort of stuff.
The gag could be updated to include computers.
Interesting list of companies. If I were Farrow and Ball or Ottolenghi, I wouldn't be waiting for a call from No 10. Maybe the cast of Corrie should be ready instead.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3606377/Tony-Blair-insists-Europe-NEEDS-Britain-leadership-claims-David-Cameron-s-strong-effective-campaign-stay-EU-doing-pretty-well.html
Kellner spinning again for Remain. Perhaps he should justify his troughing wife's (Baroness Ashton) 400k payment fron the EU for doing nothing
Please. Let there be a God. Somewhere.
(No, really..)
https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/jeremy-corbyn-tom-watson-dennis-skinner
Didn't you know that 2015 GE was rigged?
When you look at why this might have been so persistently the case we see that the single market in goods (which with honourable exceptions we are not brilliant at) is far more developed and appropriately regulated than the market in services. This has not worked to our advantage.
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
"Relax, " said the Juncker,
"We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! "
I’ve got that old feeling again. No, not that one, the other one, that feeling of being bludgeoned by a baseball bat of a political campaign. Let’s face it, the referendum battle is not going quite as those who lean to leave hoped it would, which is partly their own fault, and partly down to the efforts of a well-organised Remain team. If Leave loses look out for the score-settling on the Eurosceptic side. It’ll be like the Godfather crossed with a fractious AGM at a golf club in Surrey....
....The Leave team is not aided in any of this by the idiocy of the Continuity-UKIP crowd, who with their antics are gleefully inflicting maximum damage on the official campaign. It seems more likely by the day that the Faragists and their allies never wanted to win. The prize for them is an expanded, rebranded UKIP after a referendum defeat in which they can hope to hoover up 20% or so of the vote perpetuating a “stab in the back” myth. Brexit does not suit them at all. It would mean extinction for UKIP.
Against all this, one must congratulate the Remain crowd for their professional hit job of a campaign.
http://capx.co/remain-is-winning-in-true-ruthless-new-labour-style/
Comedy drama of Prince Charles visiting a Yorkshire coal mine (with some great 1970s imagery):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHDWivEEddo
Inshallah that Blair gets involved more.
"Back to the EU… One knows deep down, as one did back in the early 2000s, that for all the impressive and slightly chilling power of the machine, the anti-Brexit scare stories are mostly garbage. Just as some us sensed it when Gordon Brown – that incompetent regulator of the banking system, boastful blowhard on the end of boom and bust – used to beat up Oliver Letwin and the Tory gang in the early 2000s over sums as titchy as £20bn. Within a few years Brown’s mismanagement of regulation and credit meant he (or we) had to spend more than double that £20bn on bailing out the banks.
That cockiness pre-Crash is what made the unravelling of the Project, via hubris and humiliation in autumn 2007 and the election that never was, so delicious. Before that, Blair and Brown sceptics had to put up with years of strutting. Attacking or critiquing them just bounced off for about a decade.
In a similar spirit, we are now treated daily to endless consensus drivel, crafted expertly by professional pedlars of piffle. We are expected to believe that the Treasury has a good handle now on what will pertain in 2030. Think that through. How useful would Treasury assessments in 1996 of the situation in 2010 have been? Not very is the answer. Human beings and economies are dynamic. Their unpredictable activities and developments cannot be plotted like straight lines on a graph and if people want “the facts” about the future they might as well ask for a recommendation on which horse will win the Grand National in 2030.
But fair play (or dirty play, all is fair in love and campaigns) to the Remain campaign for exploiting the weaknesses of Leave. If the Inners win on June 23rd there will at least be the spectacle of watching the attempted explanations of what looks likely to follow, if there is a downturn (look at the latest global trade volumes) and the cheap money bubble and housing market goes bang. If they win, the Tory Remainer team cannot blame Brexit. Also, the first time they try to complain about a single incursion by Brussels they’ll find out what happens. They’ll be baseball batted themselves by a media that knows they scammed their way to victory."
We really are watching the cavorting of a bunch of incompetent charlatans on all sides.
The only thing that can stop people laughing is the realisation that these clowns are also supposed to be governing the country.
Was pleasantly surprised by the reception/anticipated turnout. Odd campaign cut throughs.
1) All those Leavers who want to spend £350 million per week on the NHS want to privatise the NHS don't they
2) I thought I canvassed Alanbrooke, 'that Osborne's a twat' but he's right on what Brexit means for the economy, Ed Balls said so.
I'm expecting turnout to be a higher than expected.
I'll be doing a more Leave friendly area later on this week will report back then.
My campaign reports at the GE last year were prescient and forecast the Tories doing well in West Yorkshire.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/dont-rule-out-referendum-two-the-tory-leave-genies-out-of-the-bottle/
Sorry.
They're a British colony.
It's for others to judge what they think.
Polling for referenda is another kettle of fish, and even more subject to error. My bets are on Leave but I am also in the green on Remain 60% plus, and also happy with my turnout position.
TSE gets a buzz from political campaigning. The reason for campaigning is not the main point. Fair enough. We all have hobbies and some are more self destructive.
@gabyhinsliff: It's as if they'd all somehow missed that 1. DC can be utterly ruthless 2. he really likes winning 3. winning is the thing he's good at
@gabyhinsliff: But those are the three most important things to know about Cameron. You'd think his own party might have noticed, over the years.
The campaign isn't good, it's relentlessly negative and frankly in my view counter-productive to both the actual campaign (though obviously many on the remain side will disagree) and democracy. However what it isn't is unexpected. Accordingly, you'd have thought someone in Leave might have had a plan.
It could be a Hannibal type plan, in which case it's quite cleaver but I have yet to see the horns let alone them closing in.
In many ways this was all about timing and the PM has picked his optimum time.
But there are still these slightly oddly styled TV debates. Its not over yet.
This is a rerun of Labour's £2,000 Tax Bombshell.
And - then as now - it is likely to be sadly successful.
Fortunately, then as now, it is likely to be reversed five years later, as it sows the seeds of its own destruction.
I'm going for Labour 2025.
Sadly.
Remain well ahead in my area - Leaves found in significant numbers only on social housing estates - very few in private property.
High level of interest, I would expect general election level turnout. Leaves are older, poorer, angrier - blame all their troubles on immigrants.
ALL TORIES ARE PSYCOPATHIC INCOHERENT LYING BASTARD DOG FUCKING INNUMERATE JIMMY SAVILLE SADOMASOHCISTIC SCUM
So i'll let that one pass by
Was the moment I decided 'Tory Leavers delenda est'
"oh dear Mr PM we have this ruling from europe to ....give votes to prisoners and you must pay some prisoners compensation for denying the right to vote.... etc etc" Multiply by a hundred other examples for many newspapers to go after.
You might as well invade Russia because you don't like blinis.
Lets face it youre spineless and need to feel wanted by toffs
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/735209031023906817