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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How old men being available on Friday nights to do online polls might be skewing results
“..Interviews tend to build up quickly on each Friday night, probably because certain types of people are more readily available and willing to participate.
Comments
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First, like my dad to the pub on a Friday night!0
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Second like Leave0
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"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?
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If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative0
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When was the need for adjustment first noticed?0
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This has wider implications for online polling. If one subset of those responding are atypical of their demographic, how can we be confident that other subsets are typical of their demographic?0
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More remainist propaganda. Leave supporters are grumpy old gits without a life. It's official. Gold standard and everything.0
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FFS
'The Bank of England might intervene again in the European Union referendum debate just days before Britons vote, Mark Carney has said.
The Bank of England’s Governor told MPs that he could not rule out that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will further comment on June 16 when it publishes minutes of its last meeting...'
and
'David Cameron today claimed the cost of a family summer holiday to the Mediterranean and other popular EU destinations could rise by £230 if the country votes for Brexit.
The Prime Minister cited Treasury analysis that suggests a fall in the value of the pound after leaving the EU would send the cost for flights, hotel accommodation and meals abroad soaring.
He also warned that Britons could lose rights to travel to EU countries without a visa and have holiday homes abroad if voters back Brexit. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/24/eu-referendum-tories-threaten-david-cameron-with-no-confidence-v/0 -
Or as @jimwaterson put it:DavidL said:More remainist propaganda. Leave supporters are grumpy old gits without a life. It's official. Gold standard and everything.
" There may be a problem with online polls cos old UKIP-voting men are really keen to share opinions on Friday nights. https://t.co/d1ggqx10Ch "
(There is some time of the week when UKIP-voting old men are reluctant to share their opinion?)0 -
I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.Jonathan said:If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative
Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.0 -
The correct term is 'experienced'.Sunil_Prasannan said:"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.0 -
So what are all the old women doing on Friday evenings, then?0
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On topic it looks like several pollsters are looking for a reason to rationalise a herd. Probably on the basis the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Honestly, I'd have much more respect for pollsters if they stuck to their guns consistently. We might all learn something.0 -
Shy kippers?Wanderer said:
Or as @jimwaterson put it:DavidL said:More remainist propaganda. Leave supporters are grumpy old gits without a life. It's official. Gold standard and everything.
" There may be a problem with online polls cos old UKIP-voting men are really keen to share opinions on Friday nights. https://t.co/d1ggqx10Ch "
(There is some time of the week when UKIP-voting old men are reluctant to share their opinion?)
Never met one yet ;-)0 -
Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.Jonathan said:If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative
Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.0 -
Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.0
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Online polls have serious flaws.AlastairMeeks said:This has wider implications for online polling. If one subset of those responding are atypical of their demographic, how can we be confident that other subsets are typical of their demographic?
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This one has substance.
List a set of people by demographic and it is soon evident when they will most likely be available for contact and willing to participate;
Example:
25 year old full time bank cashier works in City with a one hour commute either way. He's unavailable from 8-6 Mon-Fri, and probably later on Friday if going out.
Non working parent of three school age children. Unavailable until 10 am, then 2-4 pm, possibly after whilst making meal, probably wants a bit of peace and quiet when they go to bed. Best contact 10-2 weekdays, or weekend when other half is home.
Who is more likely to answer a mobile and do a survey during the week? A part time public sector worker, a media worker, white van man?
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Not just PPI - I automatically put a stop to the call if I hear the word 'survey' mentioned. Wait until they draw breath & just say "No, thank you, goodbye".Wanderer said:
Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.Jonathan said:If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative
Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.0 -
Matt Singh has put his views forward on graduate over representation in polls.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/the-case-against-phone-polls-is-not-proven.html/#more-18550 -
Actually, the majority of people after 9pm on a Friday are stark sober.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
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Quick de-lurk - Just phone polled by someone or another on behalf of Britain In.
They didn't go big on demographics so assume they're going for a big sample.
Anyway, some of the teddy-throwing on here in the last 24 hours has been ace! And there's still a month to go..
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Perhaps polls should only be carried out on a Thursday to simulate the actual election day.
Which groups are less able to vote on a Thursday?0 -
Private poll most likely.Monksfield said:Quick de-lurk - Just phone polled by someone or another on behalf of Britain In.
They didn't go big on demographics so assume they're going for a big sample.
Anyway, some of the teddy-throwing on here in the last 24 hours has been ace! And there's still a month to go..0 -
I prefer to call them 'seasoned'kle4 said:
The correct term is 'experienced'.Sunil_Prasannan said:"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
Thankfully at 45 I'm still middle aged.0 -
Correct. Which begs the question how good the phone polls are if call filtering is so good these days, and the response rates so low.Wanderer said:
Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.Jonathan said:If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative
Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.
Perhaps those who take unsolicted phone poll calls are equally keen.0 -
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
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That's where they're going wrong Surby.surbiton said:
Actually, the majority of people after 9pm on a Friday are stark sober.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
9PM on a Friday is defo pub time.0 -
Or at least atypical in some way. Heck, maybe they are just less irritable than the norm. That alone would be a problem, I think.Casino_Royale said:
Correct. Which begs the question how good the phone polls are if call filtering is so good these days, and the response rates so low.Wanderer said:
Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.Jonathan said:If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative
Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.
Perhaps those who take unsolicted phone poll calls are equally keen.0 -
The Crosby-Textor private polls for the Tories at the last election that were so accurate were hybrid polls, combining both phone and online samples.
Perhaps that's the way to go.0 -
Lol - good of you to post important messages from the Remain camp.Plato_Says said:FFS
'The Bank of England might intervene again in the European Union referendum debate just days before Britons vote, Mark Carney has said.
The Bank of England’s Governor told MPs that he could not rule out that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will further comment on June 16 when it publishes minutes of its last meeting...'
and
'David Cameron today claimed the cost of a family summer holiday to the Mediterranean and other popular EU destinations could rise by £230 if the country votes for Brexit.
The Prime Minister cited Treasury analysis that suggests a fall in the value of the pound after leaving the EU would send the cost for flights, hotel accommodation and meals abroad soaring.
He also warned that Britons could lose rights to travel to EU countries without a visa and have holiday homes abroad if voters back Brexit. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/24/eu-referendum-tories-threaten-david-cameron-with-no-confidence-v/0 -
Bwahaha!felix said:
Lol - good of you to post important messages from the Remain camp.Plato_Says said:FFS
'The Bank of England might intervene again in the European Union referendum debate just days before Britons vote, Mark Carney has said.
The Bank of England’s Governor told MPs that he could not rule out that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will further comment on June 16 when it publishes minutes of its last meeting...'
and
'David Cameron today claimed the cost of a family summer holiday to the Mediterranean and other popular EU destinations could rise by £230 if the country votes for Brexit.
The Prime Minister cited Treasury analysis that suggests a fall in the value of the pound after leaving the EU would send the cost for flights, hotel accommodation and meals abroad soaring.
He also warned that Britons could lose rights to travel to EU countries without a visa and have holiday homes abroad if voters back Brexit. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/24/eu-referendum-tories-threaten-david-cameron-with-no-confidence-v/0 -
Every Remainer will think meanly of himself for being one. They're a pathetic bunch.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
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Let's face it: none of us know what's going on, and none of us know any better than anyone else what the result is going to be.Wanderer said:
Or at least atypical in some way. Heck, maybe they are just less irritable than the norm. That alone would be a problem, I think.Casino_Royale said:
Correct. Which begs the question how good the phone polls are if call filtering is so good these days, and the response rates so low.Wanderer said:
Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.Jonathan said:If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative
Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.
Perhaps those who take unsolicted phone poll calls are equally keen.0 -
Lol ;-)DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
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Point of order Mr L, but there is no reason to update the antivirus if all plugs and therefore the router are switched off.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
I would get out more, but it just isn't as much fun as being a pedant.0 -
Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns0 -
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
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Millennium smugMP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
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Just choked on my tea. Very funny.ydoethur said:
Point of order Mr L, but there is no reason to update the antivirus if all plugs and therefore the router are switched off.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
I would get out more, but it just isn't as much fun as being a pedant.0 -
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Tory Expense Scandal - thanks to phone hcaking is The Mirror short of cash?
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Peter Kellner says Remain "has it in the bag" if turnout is over 60%. And, interestingly, he thinks the harder to reach people (i.e. the ones you have to go back to a few times before getting a response) are more likely to be for remain.0
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I suggst some polls should be carried out by post in order to simulate postal voting.
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Those that fill in postal votes.David_Evershed said:Perhaps polls should only be carried out on a Thursday to simulate the actual election day.
Which groups are less able to vote on a Thursday?0 -
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?MP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
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That's what I keep telling myself when I look at the red number next to Remain in Betfair.Casino_Royale said:
Let's face it: none of us know what's going on, and none of us know any better than anyone else what the result is going to be.Wanderer said:
Or at least atypical in some way. Heck, maybe they are just less irritable than the norm. That alone would be a problem, I think.Casino_Royale said:
Correct. Which begs the question how good the phone polls are if call filtering is so good these days, and the response rates so low.Wanderer said:
Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.Jonathan said:If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative
Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.
Perhaps those who take unsolicted phone poll calls are equally keen.0 -
To use a boxing analogy .
This does not feel like the Muhammad Ali v George Foreman 1974 fight . Where leave is Ali taking all the punches on the ropes, but to eventually land the knock out blow after remain have tired themselves out.
It has become an Ali v Richard Dunn 1976 fight where leave is Dunn the plucky Yorkshireman.
1976-05-24 : Muhammad Ali 220 lbs beat Richard Dunn 206½ lbs by TKO at 2:05 in round 5 of 15
Location: Olympiahalle, Munich, Bayern, Germany
Referee: Herbert Tomser
World Boxing Council Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
World Boxing Association Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
Notes
Ali dropped Dunn three times in the fourth and twice in the fifth.
This was Ali's last knockout win.
This might be Cameron`s last win.0 -
But what about the wardrobe monsters?DavidL said:
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?MP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
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Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns0 -
I genuinely do think Leave has a much much better chance than that.Yorkcity said:To use a boxing analogy .
This does not feel like the Muhammad Ali v George Foreman 1974 fight . Where leave is Ali taking all the punches on the ropes, but to eventually land the knock out blow after remain have tired themselves out.
It has become an Ali v Richard Dunn 1976 fight where leave is Dunn the plucky Yorkshireman.
1976-05-24 : Muhammad Ali 220 lbs beat Richard Dunn 206½ lbs by TKO at 2:05 in round 5 of 15
Location: Olympiahalle, Munich, Bayern, Germany
Referee: Herbert Tomser
World Boxing Council Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
World Boxing Association Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
Notes
Ali dropped Dunn three times in the fourth and twice in the fifth.
This was Ali's last knockout win.
This might be Cameron`s last win.0 -
As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns0 -
I can cash out £281 profit on Betfair thanks to backing Remain at 1.50. My overall average across all bookies is 1.40. I really wish I topped up when Remain went back up to 1.50 several months ago (if I remember correctly). I see little to no value in Remain at the current odds.Wanderer said:
That's what I keep telling myself when I look at the red number next to Remain in Betfair.Casino_Royale said:
Let's face it: none of us know what's going on, and none of us know any better than anyone else what the result is going to be.Wanderer said:
Or at least atypical in some way. Heck, maybe they are just less irritable than the norm. That alone would be a problem, I think.Casino_Royale said:
Correct. Which begs the question how good the phone polls are if call filtering is so good these days, and the response rates so low.Wanderer said:
Well, the phone call would run into the barrier of people assuming it's PPI spam and not answering. Whereas if you've signed up for an online panel you know the invite to a survey is not just crap.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure there's much difference between responding to an online poll on a smartphone and being called on one.Jonathan said:If you take part in online polls at all you are by definition a bit odd and unrepresentative
Well, only in terms of the fact the former is a invitation to respond, and the latter is someone knocking unexpectedly on your door.
Perhaps those who take unsolicted phone poll calls are equally keen.0 -
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
But what about the wardrobe monsters?DavidL said:
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?MP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
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Ha! You're forever in a basque and fishnetsDavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
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You're on a roll this eveningDavidL said:
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
But what about the wardrobe monsters?DavidL said:
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?MP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
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So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?TheScreamingEagles said:
Colour me sceptical.
Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.0 -
That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.foxinsoxuk said:
As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns0 -
What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.DavidL said:
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
But what about the wardrobe monsters?DavidL said:
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?MP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.
Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!0 -
Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.
I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.0 -
It's Clay ( Leave ) v Liston ( Remain ) 1.Yorkcity said:To use a boxing analogy .
This does not feel like the Muhammad Ali v George Foreman 1974 fight . Where leave is Ali taking all the punches on the ropes, but to eventually land the knock out blow after remain have tired themselves out.
It has become an Ali v Richard Dunn 1976 fight where leave is Dunn the plucky Yorkshireman.
1976-05-24 : Muhammad Ali 220 lbs beat Richard Dunn 206½ lbs by TKO at 2:05 in round 5 of 15
Location: Olympiahalle, Munich, Bayern, Germany
Referee: Herbert Tomser
World Boxing Council Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
World Boxing Association Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
Notes
Ali dropped Dunn three times in the fourth and twice in the fifth.
This was Ali's last knockout win.
This might be Cameron`s last win.
"Clay was a seven to one betting underdog. Of the 46 sportswriters at ringside, 43 had picked Sonny Liston to win by knockout."
We'll shock the world.
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Doesn't his Mrs get a humdinger of a pension from the EU?Casino_Royale said:
So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?TheScreamingEagles said:
Colour me sceptical.
Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.
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It's hard to know which is getting it right, and which wrong.Casino_Royale said:
So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?TheScreamingEagles said:
Colour me sceptical.
Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.
Internet polls suffer from the fact that you have to join a panel, to earn perhaps two quid for wasting spending three or four hours a month filling in surveys. I don't know what other people think, but I'm not convinced that will generate a particularly representative sample.
Phone polls suffer from (a) the increased prevalence of mobile phones, (b) appallingly low response rates, and (c) a natural tendency of respondents to give the answer the person asking is hoping for. (Alternatively, if it's a robo-call system, you get even lower response rates...)
On June 24th, I'll let you guys know whether I think phone or Internet polling is more reliable WRT to the EU referendum.0 -
Some might say that clarity as to what our trading relationship with the EU is going to be might have been helpful too but what do I know?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.DavidL said:
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
But what about the wardrobe monsters?DavidL said:
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?MP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.
Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!0 -
And, nor is the case against online polling. Both methods are potentially flawed.Verulamius said:Matt Singh has put his views forward on graduate over representation in polls.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/the-case-against-phone-polls-is-not-proven.html/#more-18550 -
Yes. His wife was High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and established the European External Action Service (diplomatic arm).Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Doesn't his Mrs get a humdinger of a pension from the EU?Casino_Royale said:
So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?TheScreamingEagles said:
Colour me sceptical.
Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.0 -
What do any of us on here know?DavidL said:
Some might say that clarity as to what our trading relationship with the EU is going to be might have been helpful too but what do I know?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.DavidL said:
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
But what about the wardrobe monsters?DavidL said:
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?MP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.
Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!
We're just shooting the breeze for gits and shiggles.
0 -
Is the camera on my laptop on? Gosh.Plato_Says said:
Ha! You're forever in a basque and fishnetsDavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns0 -
To be fair, a friend of mine is a Labour activist in Cambridge, and he told me repeatedly that Huppert had it in the bag. So, Lord Ashcroft was not the only one surprised by the resultfoxinsoxuk said:
As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns0 -
His colleagues clearly disagree with him.Casino_Royale said:
So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?TheScreamingEagles said:
Colour me sceptical.
Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.0 -
Indeed, his polls were some of the worst. Perhaps because of his own dislike and disgruntlement with the Cameroons.DavidL said:
That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.foxinsoxuk said:
As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns0 -
Unfortunately it does appear that one of those halves is slightly bigger than the other. We are left hoping they don't turn up.Casino_Royale said:
Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.
I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.0 -
Perhaps we should bite the bullet and split the United Kingdom; maybe our divisions are just too great.Casino_Royale said:
Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.
I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.0 -
She had great training for the role.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. His wife was High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and established the European External Action Service (diplomatic arm).Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Doesn't his Mrs get a humdinger of a pension from the EU?Casino_Royale said:
So normally they're good, but this time they're wrong on this particular subject?TheScreamingEagles said:
Colour me sceptical.
Kellner is a big europhile. What you're seeing here is confirmation bias.
Anyone who gets the exalted position of chair of Hertfordshire's health authority is destined for great things.
Hertfordshire doesn't title itself as 'County of Opportunity' for nothing you know.
0 -
The map of the ensuing mess would be amusingrcs1000 said:
Perhaps we should bite the bullet and split the United Kingdom; maybe our divisions are just too great.Casino_Royale said:
Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.
I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.0 -
What is this of what you speak? What is a gits and what is a shiggle? Do I want one?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
What do any of us on here know?DavidL said:
Some might say that clarity as to what our trading relationship with the EU is going to be might have been helpful too but what do I know?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.DavidL said:
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
But what about the wardrobe monsters?DavidL said:
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?MP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.
Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!
We're just shooting the breeze for gits and shiggles.0 -
Some of his constituency polls were very accurate (eg Scotland, Greater Bristol/Somerset). Others were way off the Mark.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed, his polls were some of the worst. Perhaps because of his own dislike and disgruntlement with the Cameroons.DavidL said:
That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.foxinsoxuk said:
As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns0 -
The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.kle4 said:
The correct term is 'experienced'.Sunil_Prasannan said:"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now
Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.
Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.
0 -
My gut told me 58-42 to Remain, I haven't seen much to make me doubt my gut so far. My gut is suggesting revising to 59-41 but only provisionally.0
-
Leave 5/5.10
-
Maybe they were misled by all the 'Winning here' posters?rcs1000 said:
To be fair, a friend of mine is a Labour activist in Cambridge, and he told me repeatedly that Huppert had it in the bag. So, Lord Ashcroft was not the only one surprised by the resultfoxinsoxuk said:
As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns0 -
Whatever Leave say, the EU will say it's not a possibility.DavidL said:
Some might say that clarity as to what our trading relationship with the EU is going to be might have been helpful too but what do I know?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.DavidL said:
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
But what about the wardrobe monsters?DavidL said:
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?MP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.
Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!0 -
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?another_richard said:
The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.kle4 said:
The correct term is 'experienced'.Sunil_Prasannan said:"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now
Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.
Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.0 -
Bastards. Who wants to be in bed with people like that?VapidBilge said:
Whatever Leave say, the EU will say it's not a possibility.DavidL said:
Some might say that clarity as to what our trading relationship with the EU is going to be might have been helpful too but what do I know?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
What really annoys me is that LEAVE haven't set out a coherent strategy for dealing with wardrobe monsters in event of Brexit.DavidL said:
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
But what about the wardrobe monsters?DavidL said:
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?MP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
And that's before we get to what nasties may be lurking beneath the bed.
Scaredy-cats for REMAIN!0 -
I have to say if I was phoned by someone who said they were from Britain In I would refuse to do their survey. Why should I give them the information they need to better target their campaign?Casino_Royale said:
Private poll most likely.Monksfield said:Quick de-lurk - Just phone polled by someone or another on behalf of Britain In.
They didn't go big on demographics so assume they're going for a big sample.
Anyway, some of the teddy-throwing on here in the last 24 hours has been ace! And there's still a month to go..
I am kind of surprised they said they were from one campaign or the other.0 -
Depends which polls you believe...DavidL said:
Unfortunately it does appear that one of those halves is slightly bigger than the other. We are left hoping they don't turn up.Casino_Royale said:
Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.
I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.
Personally, I think England will be very close, and for Leave outside the cities.
In Wales, and NI and Scotland in particular, it'll be more lopsided.0 -
If leave win against the establishment orthodoxy, it will be the biggest shock since 1945 when ,Churchill lost to Attlee.MonikerDiCanio said:
It's Clay ( Leave ) v Liston ( Remain ) 1.Yorkcity said:To use a boxing analogy .
This does not feel like the Muhammad Ali v George Foreman 1974 fight . Where leave is Ali taking all the punches on the ropes, but to eventually land the knock out blow after remain have tired themselves out.
It has become an Ali v Richard Dunn 1976 fight where leave is Dunn the plucky Yorkshireman.
1976-05-24 : Muhammad Ali 220 lbs beat Richard Dunn 206½ lbs by TKO at 2:05 in round 5 of 15
Location: Olympiahalle, Munich, Bayern, Germany
Referee: Herbert Tomser
World Boxing Council Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
World Boxing Association Heavyweight Title (7th defense by Ali)
Notes
Ali dropped Dunn three times in the fourth and twice in the fifth.
This was Ali's last knockout win.
This might be Cameron`s last win.
"Clay was a seven to one betting underdog. Of the 46 sportswriters at ringside, 43 had picked Sonny Liston to win by knockout."
We'll shock the world.0 -
Alas, it's a values split. Not a geographical one.rcs1000 said:
Perhaps we should bite the bullet and split the United Kingdom; maybe our divisions are just too great.Casino_Royale said:
Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.
I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.0 -
In fairness, his short term forecasts have been more accurate than any Chancellor I can recall. Possibly since Palpatine.Sean_F said:
Surely it's the risk of Brexit that is responsible for Osborne missing his borrowing target every year?another_richard said:
The standard response from the Osborne cheerleaders to the overborrowing was to blame it on economic problems in the EU.kle4 said:
The correct term is 'experienced'.Sunil_Prasannan said:"old men"
Would that include OGH himself?
But for once I feel the referendum should be upstaged by the news that, even though its old news, Osborne has done ever crappier a job getting borrowing down than thought. I know people complain about the things needed to do to reduce it, but there's no way he manages it even if he lasts to 2020, and that's utterly pathetic.
For some reason they've stopped using that excuse now
Instead they remain silent about Osborne's incompetence.
Yet they loudly proclaim that economics is the reason they support Remain.0 -
They do exist. When a friend of mine got to his bedroom after a Friday night outing, the wardrobe staggered across the room and hit him. So he said.DavidL said:
How many people have been eaten by wardrobe monsters since 1974? I mean, do you think that is a coincidence? Of course Leave might claim that this is because they don't exist but how do we know? Why take the risk?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
But what about the wardrobe monsters?DavidL said:
And things that go bump in the night, I know. How can I be so reckless?MP_SE said:
I heard someone the other day claim that the EU keeps us safe from computer viruses.DavidL said:
I assume that they answer under the covers with the doors locked, their alarm systems on, their anti virus updated and all the plugs carefully switched off. It's a dangerous world out there and no risks should be taken, whatever the possible upsides.MonikerDiCanio said:Anybody speaking to these ridiculous pollsters on the phone after 9 pm on Friday must be either drunk, mad or both. Thus the big Remain leads.
0 -
-
Yeah, but we could do a bit of ethnic values cleansing.Casino_Royale said:
Alas, it's a values split. Not a geographical one.rcs1000 said:
Perhaps we should bite the bullet and split the United Kingdom; maybe our divisions are just too great.Casino_Royale said:
Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.
I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.0 -
Today's ICM poll has Leave 3% ahead in England.Casino_Royale said:
Depends which polls you believe...DavidL said:
Unfortunately it does appear that one of those halves is slightly bigger than the other. We are left hoping they don't turn up.Casino_Royale said:
Part of the problem with this referendum is that we are two nations.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
One half can't understand why the other would vote Remain. The other can't fathom why anyone would vote Leave.
I think that factors into people's perceptions of the polls.
Personally, I think England will be very close, and for Leave outside the cities.
In Wales, and NI and Scotland in particular, it'll be more lopsided.0 -
How are they still in business after that Hulk Hogan law suit? I would have thought the payout would bankrupt them, no?rcs1000 said:0 -
0
-
The polls in scotland and concerning the LDs were more or less spot on, with very little of the much Lauded personal constituency vote. The problem was that people were unwilling to believe the scale of wipeout to SLAB and LDs.Sean_F said:
Some of his constituency polls were very accurate (eg Scotland, Greater Bristol/Somerset). Others were way off the Mark.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed, his polls were some of the worst. Perhaps because of his own dislike and disgruntlement with the Cameroons.DavidL said:
That is my memory too. And the bigger the polls the less close they were. Which is weird. Ashcroft's efforts to make himself a part of our political scene post Tory party have been bordering on sad.foxinsoxuk said:
As I recall his constituency polls were not even close, with the Tories only winning a couple in the West Country.DavidL said:
Will this be as sharp and clear a light as his polling shone on the GE? I am all of a quiver in antici....pationPlato_Says said:Lord Ashcroft
Thursday I will be releasing 5000 sample survey showing how the referendum battle is developing shedding light on the competing campaigns
The polls that were out were the ones looking at Lab/Con split in the English battlegrounds.
People are still unwilling to believe polls that do not meet their expectations.0 -
Of the many things that worry me about the inevitable President Trump his hair, weird though it is, barely figures.rcs1000 said:0
