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Scott_P said:

@thetimes: #Brexit campaigners have reported Ryanair's latest advert for breaking the 2010 Bribery Act https://t.co/VB6kiiw17l https://t.co/3wL9dXiu1i

Losing friends and giving free publicity to Ryanair in one move...

GIN1138 said:

anothernick said:

Sandpit said:

anothernick said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Casino_Royale said:

OllyT said:

Roger said:

Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.

Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.

If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.

Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.

I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.

That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.

A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.

Sounds like a good outcome to me... As long at Cameron (and Osborne) finish up being devoured and thrown to the wolves I don't really care.

The backbenchers know they can push Dave around with the Queens' speech amendment now.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic Betfair think this is all over.

If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.

No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.

LOL Remain haven't actually advanced any arguments.

War ! Famine ! Plague ! Pestilence !

The argument is that we're Better Together part of a Union that has free trade at the heart of it.

Lol. It has political, economic and social union at the heart of it, not free trade.

The single European act, a tribute to free trade and British influence.

Looks like they've found the wreckage:

Anthee Carassava ‎@antheecarassava [a Times journalist]

GReek MoD confirms bodies, #MS804 plane parts and backages found 5 miles south of spot where #EgyptAir flight went off radar

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic Betfair think this is all over.

If Leave was as parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

That's the conservative party

You wish.

Dave has his work cut out. Party management has always been his weak point.

By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).

Pulpstar said:

GIN1138 said:

anothernick said:

Sandpit said:

anothernick said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Casino_Royale said:

OllyT said:

Roger said:

Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.

Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.

If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.

Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.

I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.

That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.

A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.

Sounds like a good outcome to me... As long at Cameron (and Osborne) finish up being devoured and thrown to the wolves I don't really care.

The backbenchers know they can push Dave around with the Queens' speech amendment now.

Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/
.

Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority

As I said, with Trump people seem n astroturfing campaign to make it look like she does.

Those who think Hillary is a liar are logs. Sanders supports are swearing off Hillary everywhere, even when they are told that they will risk President Trump, they don't change their mind. The reaction is always the same, "well you aren't a real Democrat then and neither is Bernie".

Yes and as I have already pointed out umpteen times Hillary has more Democrats behind her in the polls against Trump than Trump has Republicans. The few Sanders supporters who oppose her even when the alternative is Trump probably voted Green or did not vote in 2012 anyway

The Rebublican Establishment is hungry for power after 8 years of Obama, and have been further emboldened by the Supreme Court vacancy that threatens to impose a liberal majority for decades.

They will give everything they have and more to getting their candidate into the White House, even if they're not huge Trump fans and would have preferred Bush/Kaisich/Cruz to have been the nominee.

Rebublicans also hate the Clintons with a passion, will be a nasty nasty campaign on both sides. What is it they say about having a rolling-in-sh!t contest with a pig? You both end up covered in sh!t, but the pig enjoys the experience and points at your smelly body at the end! Trump is that pig.

Yes so much so the Bushes will not endorse Trump and along with McCain and Romney will boycott the convention. Even Ryan has not endorsed Trump so wrong. The Bushes are far closer to the Clintons than Trump. The GOP establishment hold Congress they can endure a Hillary presidency.They cannot endure losing control of the party for 4 years or more to Trump

https://twitter.com/beleaveuk/status/733402513181937664

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority

As I said, with Trump people seem comfortable with the idea because he doesn't try and hide it. There's not very much hypocrisy unlike there is with sn't have anything like that in her camp, it's become so bad that she has had to get one of her PACs to start an astroturfing campaign to make it look like she does.

Those who think Hillary is a liar are already voting Trump it makes little difference

No they aren't, they are voting for Sanders. People on the inside of the Democratic Party don't want to see it, but this is what's happening, Hillary is alienating Sanders supporters, I've seen it everywhere on leftist forums, website and blogs. Sanders supports are swearing off Hillary everywhere, even when they are told that they will risk President Trump, they don't change their mind. The reaction is always the same, "well you aren't a real Democrat then and neither is Bernie".

Yes and as I have already pointed out umpteen times Hillary has more Democrats behind her in the polls against Trump than Trump has Republicans. The few Sanders supporters who oppose her even when the alternative is Trump probably voted Green or did not vote in 2012 anyway

And yet she is losing ground to Trump in the polls.

She still leads Trump by 3% in the RCP poll average

david_herdson said:

By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).

If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/733587054576066561

Remind me: how did he do in the General Election?

I stand by what I said: if it looks like Remain will win clearly, a good number of people will vote Leave to ensure it doesn't.

The UK public want as narrow a Remain victory as possible, IMHO, and will try and get it.

He went against his own polls and said the Tories were on course to be the largest party.

Doesn't that just mean his own polls were wrong to start with.

Most people were predicting conservatives largest party but not an overall majority.

BTW - This morning I've written a thread just for you, features George Osborne and the manufacturing industry.

Shall be published on Sunday.

Sean_F said:

Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,

Given the disgraceful way Cameron has behaved towards half of his Party it was always going to be thus...

Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU.... Just goes to show what a passionate and devoted Europhile he must have been all the way along.

Sandpit said:

That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.

No

He has given them the referendum they always craved.

It's not his fault they are fking it up.

See also Scotland...

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

GIN1138 said:

anothernick said:

Sandpit said:

anothernick said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Casino_Royale said:

OllyT said:

Roger said:

Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.

Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.

If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.

Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.

I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.

That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.

A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.

Sounds like a good outcome to me... As long at Cameron (and Osborne) finish up being devoured and thrown to the wolves I don't really care.

The backbenchers know they can push Dave around with the Queens' speech amendment now.

Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,

And once it goes it's not likely to come back - see 1974-79 and 1992-97.

david_herdson said:

By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).

His decision to pre-announce his departure is looking like a very smart move now. I think he must have realised he couldn't get through the referendum unscathed.

GIN1138 said:

Sean_F said:

Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,

Given the disgraceful way Cameron has behaved towards half of his Party it was always going to be thus...

Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU.... Just goes to show what a passionate and devoted Europhile he must have been all the way along.

And his programme for government of course, entrusted to him by the electorate. U-turns by the score. Measures watered down or dropped. He couldn;t give a t8ss about conservatives or conservatism, in fact he genuinely despises us.

another_richard said:

So Osborne was proclaiming his opposition to university tuition fees whilst in opposition:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36323823

No wonder he got on so well with Clegg.

Of course, it was Leave's sainted IDS who bound his MPs into the totally untenable position of scrapping tuition fees - a clumsy gimmick that did his fortunes no good whatsoever. It was Remain's man, Alan Johnson, whose political brilliance saw the policy through the House.

Scott_P said:

GIN1138 said:

Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU....

Oh dear. The Brexiteers don't seem to be in a happy place this morning...

Cameron has destroyed his government. No, he's still PM of a majority Government

Cameron has destroyed his party. No, the bastards who tried to do it in the 90s get credit for that

Cameron has destroyed his legacy. No, if he wins he will be the guy who won 2 referendums

Cameron has destroyed his authority. No, see points 2 and 3 above

Apart from that, good post.

Cameron has destroyed his legacy. No, if he wins he will be the guy who won 2 THREE referendums

Removed!

CarlottaVance said:

Cameron has destroyed his legacy. No, if he wins he will be the guy who won 2 THREE referendums

Sorry, I mentally credited Nick Clegg for winning the AV vote...

Scott_P said:

GIN1138 said:

Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU....

Oh dear. The Brexiteers don't seem to be in a happy place this morning...

Cameron has destroyed his government. No, he's still PM of a majority Government

Cameron has destroyed his party. No, the bastards who tried to do it in the 90s get credit for that

Cameron has destroyed his legacy. No, if he wins he will be the guy who won 2 referendums

Cameron has destroyed his authority. No, see points 2 and 3 above

Apart from that, good post.

We'll have to wait and see. But, the government does come across as a shambles, and Cameron's own ratings are now poor.

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

The Conservative Remain campaign needed to be much more in David Herdson's spirit (whom I totally respect) and recognise that how it was won was as important as winning itself.

Only losers make that claim

I don't give a shit what you think.

You hate us; we hate you.

Let's party.

GIN1138 said:

anothernick said:

Sandpit said:

anothernick said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Casino_Royale said:

OllyT said:

Roger said:

Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.

There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.

Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.

If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.

Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.

I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.

That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.

A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.

As long at Cameron (and Osborne) finish up being devoured and thrown to the wolves I don't really care.

At least you're honest......

oh, and You are Boris Johnson and I Claim my £5

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

david_herdson said:

By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).

If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle

If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.

I don't know, I feel any reshuffle will be portrayed as "revenge" regardless of what actually happens, assuming at least one LEAVE minister is reshuffled at all.

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

GIN1138 said:

Sean_F said:

Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,

Given the disgraceful way Cameron has behaved towards half of his Party it was always going to be thus...

Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU.... Just goes to show what a passionate and devoted Europhile he must have been all the way along.

I honestly don't know if I'll be able to bear remaining a member of the Conservative Party after 24th June, even if I do lose a vote in the next leadership election by doing so.

The Conservative Remain campaign needed to be much more in David Herdson's spirit (whom I totally respect) and recognise that how it was won was as important as winning itself.

Instead we got the full fucking George Osborne treatment, and it's made me totally and utterly furious.

Cameron's terror is that he might become the scorn of the Bildeberg set by losing the referendum. This is what explains his behaviour imo.

There's almost certainly a lot of very lucrative, financial incentives waiting for him via the "Bildebergers" when he "retires" and leaves a broken and ruined Party in his wake.

Well...people were saying the EU should get involved in the debate:

The president of the European Commission has warned British voters ahead of next month’s referendum on EU membership that “deserters will not be welcomed back with open arms”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a40e4c0-1e6e-11e6-b286-cddde55ca122.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/companies/feed//product#axzz49Bmr86ww

taffys said:

Sean_F said:

Scott_P said:

GIN1138 said:

Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU....

Oh dear. The Brexiteers don't seem to be in a happy place this morning...

Cameron has destroyed his government. No, he's still PM of a majority Government

Cameron has destroyed his party. No, the bastards who tried to do it in the 90s get credit for that

Cameron has destroyed his legacy. No, if he wins he will be the guy who won 2 referendums

Cameron has destroyed his authority. No, see points 2 and 3 above

Apart from that, good post.

We'll have to wait and see. But, the government does come across as a shambles, and Cameron's own ratings are now poor.

David Cameron's time in government shows he has zero principles beyond maintaining the Davos/Bilderberg let your betters handle this system that we have now.

I expect that's why he's held THREE referendums.......curiously he extended the franchise beyond the 'Davos / Bilderberg / Betters' set......

CarlottaVance said:

Well...people were saying the EU should get involved in the debate:

The president of the European Commission has warned British voters ahead of next month’s referendum on EU membership that “deserters will not be welcomed back with open arms”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a40e4c0-1e6e-11e6-b286-cddde55ca122.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/companies/feed//product#axzz49Bmr86ww

Oh, charming. I expect we should consider ourselves lucky we won't be shot?

@LadPolitics: Ladbrokes: 3/1 for Cameron to be replaced as PM this year. https://t.co/DLNGKGjElC https://t.co/cZX9SgBe9D

Richard_Nabavi said:

david_herdson said:

By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).

His decision to pre-announce his departure is looking like a very smart move now. I think he must have realised he couldn't get through the referendum unscathed.

To be honest I suspect that was a 'slip of the tongue' - a friendly kitchen chat with a fellow OE and it just popped out. No doubt before hand it has been a topic of serious discussion with his wife - but I suspect he's keen to avoid Powell's maxim on political lives...and would have announced it after EURef in this Parliament.

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Well...people were saying the EU should get involved in the debate:

The president of the European Commission has warned British voters ahead of next month’s referendum on EU membership that “deserters will not be welcomed back with open arms”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a40e4c0-1e6e-11e6-b286-cddde55ca122.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/companies/feed//product#axzz49Bmr86ww

Oh, charming. I expect we should consider ourselves lucky we won't be shot?

It did strike me as not the happiest choice of metaphors!

richardDodd said:

Anothernick..I am very happy to have Cameron as the PM....

Same here. He's got this winning elections so you can exercise power thing figured out.......something not all of his critics appear to grasp.....

anothernick said:

Scott_P said:

Sandpit said:

That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.

No

He has given them the referendum they always craved.

It's not his fault they are fking it up.

See also Scotland...

There is no gratitude in politics.

A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.

In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.

Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.

AlastairMeeks said:

@Casino_Royale Conservative rightwingers have voted against a Conservative budget and now are voting against a Conservative Queen's Speech. It's pretty clear who are the wreckers in this process.

Why woulkd you vote for something you don't believe in ?

GIN1138 said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

GIN1138 said:

Sean_F said:

Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,

Given the disgraceful way Cameron has behaved towards half of his Party it was always going to be thus...

Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU.... Just goes to show what a passionate and devoted Europhile he must have been all the way along.

I honestly don't know if I'll be able to bear remaining a member of the Conservative Party after 24th June, even if I do lose a vote in the next leadership election by doing so.

The Conservative Remain campaign needed to be much more in David Herdson's spirit (whom I totally respect) and recognise that how it was won was as important as winning itself.

Instead we got the full fucking George Osborne treatment, and it's made me totally and utterly furious.

Cameron's terror is that he might become the scorn of the Bildeberg set by losing the referendum. This is what explains his behaviour imo.

There's almost certainly a lot of very lucrative, financial incentives waiting for him via the "Bildebergers" when he "retires" and leaves a broken and ruined Party in his wake.

I don't adhere your theory of Bildeberg and World Government myself, but you raise an interesting theoretical point. How much power does the World Government actually possess? Clearly the World Government wants a Remain vote, but can it enforce that on its own, or does it need to coerce nation 'leaders' like Cameron to enforce its agenda. Moreover is Cameron himself part of the World Government or is he merely its unwitting stooge?

JohnO said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

david_herdson said:

By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).

If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle

If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.

Some more than others though. For the very small minority (I have my little list), revenge is a dish best served cold.

I'm not a member of the CP, but the trend on PB seems to be tory remainers saying peace and harmony will break out and divisions will heal and the leavers say 4cough.

You both can't be right.

Alanbrooke said:

anothernick said:

Scott_P said:

Sandpit said:

That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.

No

He has given them the referendum they always craved.

It's not his fault they are fking it up.

See also Scotland...

There is no gratitude in politics.

A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.

In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.

Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.

They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......

AlastairMeeks said:

@Alanbrooke I have the lurking suspicion that this particular group of MPs are more likely to want to privatise the NHS than to protect it from the ravages of TTIP, but see the opportunity to create chaos against a hated leader.

English sunday trading and the SNP is springing to mind for some reason.

AlastairMeeks said:

@Casino_Royale Conservative rightwingers have voted against a Conservative budget and now are voting against a Conservative Queen's Speech. It's pretty clear who are the wreckers in this process.

Is there a list of the rebel MPs?

I thought it might be interesting to look at the probabilities by band in the Number Cruncher Politics model (posted earlier):

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/euref/

I printed out the graph of the modelled probability distribution and made a rough measurement of the areas to get probability by Remain percentage band. It comes out something like this:

Under 45%: 6%
45% to 50%: 13%

[i.e 19% probability of a Remain win]

50% to 55%: 22%
55% to 60%: 25%
60% to 65%: 19%
Over 65%: 14%

Contrast with midpoint Betfair implied probabilities:

Under 45%: 5%
45% to 50%: 17%

50% to 55%: 29%
55% to 60%: 30%
60% to 65%: 15%
Over 65%: 6%

Not too inconsistent. Might be a case of garabge in, garbage out, of course. Of the two sets, the Betfair probabilities look more plausible to me, the NCP model looks too flat (i.e it gives too high a probability to the extremes of the distribution). But who knows?

AlastairMeeks said:

@Alanbrooke I have the lurking suspicion that this particular group of MPs are more likely to want to privatise the NHS than to protect it from the ravages of TTIP, but see the opportunity to create chaos against a hated leader.

It sounds like the Posh Boys have pretty much bankrupted the NHS anyway...

JohnO said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

david_herdson said:

By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).

If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle

If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.

Some more than others though. For the very small minority (I have my little list), revenge is a dish best served cold.

Don't the Tories who are at each other's throats feel guilty, don't they have a responsibility to allow the electorate to have a moderate right wing party to vote for? Or are they as guilty a Labour who have deprived the electorate of a moderate left wing party to vote for?

AlastairMeeks said:

To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".

...because we couldn't organise a drunken party in an establishment dedicated to the production of alcohol...

...as we have demonstrated repeatedly over the years.

AlastairMeeks said:

@Alanbrooke The offer to the Conservative right wing runs as follows: "You wanted a referendum, you got a referendum. Problem?"

To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".

That's not actually how righties see it. The EU ref is simply one of a variety of points on which righties disagree.

On the EU ref specifically Cameron is playing fast and loose on pretending he negotiated anything meaningful, overplaying his hand to stay in and using givernment as the spendeing arm of remain. The Leave campaign is fairly shambolic and is unlikely to win so I never quite see why Cameron didn't leave an uncoordinated bunch to marinate in their own juices. He's still win and not have the rancour. As it is I can't see his hopes of healing a rift being remotely realistic.

Fisher:
Chances of winning:
72% Remain – 28% Leave
Result forecast:
Remain 54% – Leave 46%
Margin of error ±13 pts

Singh:
81% Remain – 19% Leave
Remain 56.4%
90% CI ±11.9 pts (Normal distribution)

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".

...because we couldn't organise a drunken party in an establishment dedicated to the production of alcohol...

...as we have demonstrated repeatedly over the years.

"We were relying on Dave to organise it but at the last minute it turns out he'd rather organise a bun fight in a bakery."

midwinter said:

Whats up with the hate for Dave?

Let's see.

There's the shambles over the non-negotiation, negotiation fiasco. There's flying in POTUS to threaten his own citizens in their own country (at the taxpayers expense) there's the decade of lying about being a eurosceptic, there's the claims that people who want to leave the EU are supporters of ISIS, Putin, North Korea, etc. etc. etc.

Alanbrooke said:

JohnO said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

david_herdson said:

By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).

If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle

If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.

Some more than others though. For the very small minority (I have my little list), revenge is a dish best served cold.

I'm not a member of the CP, but the trend on PB seems to be tory remainers saying peace and harmony will break out and divisions will heal and the leavers say 4cough.

You both can't be right.

Assuming (and who knows?) Remain win comfortably, say 10% or more, the vast majority (90%) of Leave MPs and members will want the party re-united, and that sentiment has to be reflected in any Ministerial reshuffle. Yes, Gove, Pritti Patel and Boris have doubtless irritated the leadership but what has surprised me (and going back to my callow youth days of 1975) is the singular absence of Tory backbench MPs, in this instance, lambasting each other on TV or social media. A splendid example of campaigning without rancour is my own MP, Dom Raab, who is a prominent leaver.

But there IS the matter of the 10% or so irreconciliable MPs - the David Davis, Philip Davies, Bernard Jenkin, Steven Baker, the Mogg, and a number of others. The Government's tiny majority does mean they can be held hostage at any time, and indeed many of these were rebels in the 2010 Parliament, so the current referendum campaign is simply an excuse for serial disloyalty. I'm afraid there's not much any mainstream leader can do to assuage them for the present.

Perhaps if the Tories are enjoying a double-digit lead in the run-up to 2020, a few of the most egregious could be ejected from the parliamentary party, and barred from standing as Conservative candidates at the election!

AlastairMeeks said:

@Alanbrooke I have been predicting for a long time that the Conservatives will be hopelessly riven for a long time to come after the referendum. If UKIP weren't headed by Nigel Farage, I'd see the chances of a chunk of the Conservative right shearing off to join them as substantial.

Ironically, Douglas Carswell's experiences may well have been good for the Conservative party in the long term. What Conservative MP would rush to risk getting involved in UKIP's Game Of Thrones re-enactment?

Yes I'd agree with that.

While I regularly get accused of being a kipper, I don't vote for them as I think Farage is a prat.
If they got a half decent leader I'd seriously consider it.

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@Alanbrooke The offer to the Conservative right wing runs as follows: "You wanted a referendum, you got a referendum. Problem?"

To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".

He's still win and not have the rancour. As it is I can't see his hopes of healing a rift being remotely realistic.

If there's one thing the right wing of the Tories do well, its rancour......whatever the result of the REMAIN margin (assuming it is REMAIN) the Right will be in a huff that will make Heath's 'Great Sulk' seem reasonable and proportionate by comparison......