Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.
A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.
Sounds like a good outcome to me... As long at Cameron (and Osborne) finish up being devoured and thrown to the wolves I don't really care.
Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.
A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.
Sounds like a good outcome to me... As long at Cameron (and Osborne) finish up being devoured and thrown to the wolves I don't really care.
The backbenchers know they can push Dave around with the Queens' speech amendment now.
Losing friends and giving free publicity to Ryanair in one move...
And, more to the point, increasing the chance that ex-pats will get round to registering to vote. It's hard to imagine a more counter-productive move. If the complaint is successful (which seems a remote chance), it would be even more counter-productive because the media coverage would be even greater.
Losing friends and giving free publicity to Ryanair in one move...
And, more to the point, increasing the chance that ex-pats will get round to registering to vote. It's hard to imagine a more counter-productive move. If the complaint is successful (which seems a remote chance), it would be even more counter-productive because the media coverage would be even greater.
The complaint will only be successful if a crime has been commited. Are you seriously suggesting it is simply counter productive to report crimes? Nice attitude!
Dave has his work cut out. Party management has always been his weak point.
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.
A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.
Sounds like a good outcome to me... As long at Cameron (and Osborne) finish up being devoured and thrown to the wolves I don't really care.
FWIW - and I am not a Tory - it seems to me that if the result is 60%+ Remain Cameron is definitely safe. If it's 55-60 he's probably safe. If it's 50-55 it looks dicey, especially if turnout is low. If it's below 50 he's toast.
Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.
A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.
Sounds like a good outcome to me... As long at Cameron (and Osborne) finish up being devoured and thrown to the wolves I don't really care.
The backbenchers know they can push Dave around with the Queens' speech amendment now.
Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,
If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
On to more important things. Are you at the test and is it still raining? I was depressed to see trainline was telling me to take my brolly to Leeds this morning.
Is fine at the moment, but I've packed my kagool for the afternoon.
Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority
As I said, with Trump people seem n astroturfing campaign to make it look like she does.
Those who think Hillary is a liar are logs. Sanders supports are swearing off Hillary everywhere, even when they are told that they will risk President Trump, they don't change their mind. The reaction is always the same, "well you aren't a real Democrat then and neither is Bernie".
Yes and as I have already pointed out umpteen times Hillary has more Democrats behind her in the polls against Trump than Trump has Republicans. The few Sanders supporters who oppose her even when the alternative is Trump probably voted Green or did not vote in 2012 anyway
The Rebublican Establishment is hungry for power after 8 years of Obama, and have been further emboldened by the Supreme Court vacancy that threatens to impose a liberal majority for decades.
They will give everything they have and more to getting their candidate into the White House, even if they're not huge Trump fans and would have preferred Bush/Kaisich/Cruz to have been the nominee.
Rebublicans also hate the Clintons with a passion, will be a nasty nasty campaign on both sides. What is it they say about having a rolling-in-sh!t contest with a pig? You both end up covered in sh!t, but the pig enjoys the experience and points at your smelly body at the end! Trump is that pig.
Yes so much so the Bushes will not endorse Trump and along with McCain and Romney will boycott the convention. Even Ryan has not endorsed Trump so wrong. The Bushes are far closer to the Clintons than Trump. The GOP establishment hold Congress they can endure a Hillary presidency.They cannot endure losing control of the party for 4 years or more to Trump
The complaint will only be successful if a crime has been commited. Are you seriously suggesting it is simply counter productive to report crimes? Nice attitude!
I'm just assessing it from the point of view of the Leave campaign, who (perhaps naively) I thought were trying to maximise their chances of winning.
This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.
By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.
Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority
As I said, with Trump people seem comfortable with the idea because he doesn't try and hide it. There's not very much hypocrisy unlike there is with sn't have anything like that in her camp, it's become so bad that she has had to get one of her PACs to start an astroturfing campaign to make it look like she does.
Those who think Hillary is a liar are already voting Trump it makes little difference
No they aren't, they are voting for Sanders. People on the inside of the Democratic Party don't want to see it, but this is what's happening, Hillary is alienating Sanders supporters, I've seen it everywhere on leftist forums, website and blogs. Sanders supports are swearing off Hillary everywhere, even when they are told that they will risk President Trump, they don't change their mind. The reaction is always the same, "well you aren't a real Democrat then and neither is Bernie".
Yes and as I have already pointed out umpteen times Hillary has more Democrats behind her in the polls against Trump than Trump has Republicans. The few Sanders supporters who oppose her even when the alternative is Trump probably voted Green or did not vote in 2012 anyway
And yet she is losing ground to Trump in the polls.
She still leads Trump by 3% in the RCP poll average
Dave has his work cut out. Party management has always been his weak point.
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
He's been lucky no doubt.
But luck tends to be fickle. Really he should have done a Harold Wilson on this leaving himself free to playing healing influence post the vote.
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.
A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.
Sounds like a good outcome to me... As long at Cameron (and Osborne) finish up being devoured and thrown to the wolves I don't really care.
The backbenchers know they can push Dave around with the Queens' speech amendment now.
With such a small majority his party management has to be superb just to get anything through. That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
Scots vote tactically in EU Referendum, in Machiavellian Plan to become Independent exploit $45 a barrel Oil ...
The cunning plan wouldn't work if as a result there was a majority to leave in Scotland. More likely perhaps they'll sit on their hands - apparently interest isn't that great north of the border.
Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,
Given the disgraceful way Cameron has behaved towards half of his Party it was always going to be thus...
Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU.... Just goes to show what a passionate and devoted Europhile he must have been all the way along.
Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.
A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.
Sounds like a good outcome to me... As long at Cameron (and Osborne) finish up being devoured and thrown to the wolves I don't really care.
The backbenchers know they can push Dave around with the Queens' speech amendment now.
Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,
And once it goes it's not likely to come back - see 1974-79 and 1992-97.
If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
LOL Remain haven't actually advanced any arguments.
War ! Famine ! Plague ! Pestilence !
The argument is that we're Better Together part of a Union that has free trade at the heart of it.
Lol. It has political, economic and social union at the heart of it, not free trade.
The single European act, a tribute to free trade and British influence.
No it really wasn't. It was one of the aims and intents of the EEC from the very start. The clever bit was making the most sceptical country in the community think they were responsible for it.
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
His decision to pre-announce his departure is looking like a very smart move now. I think he must have realised he couldn't get through the referendum unscathed.
Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,
Given the disgraceful way Cameron has behaved towards half of his Party it was always going to be thus...
Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU.... Just goes to show what a passionate and devoted Europhile he must have been all the way along.
I honestly don't know if I'll be able to bear remaining a member of the Conservative Party after 24th June, even if I do lose a vote in the next leadership election by doing so.
The Conservative Remain campaign needed to be much more in David Herdson's spirit (whom I totally respect) and recognise that how it was won was as important as winning itself.
Instead we got the full fucking George Osborne treatment, and it's made me totally and utterly furious.
Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,
Given the disgraceful way Cameron has behaved towards half of his Party it was always going to be thus...
Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU.... Just goes to show what a passionate and devoted Europhile he must have been all the way along.
And his programme for government of course, entrusted to him by the electorate. U-turns by the score. Measures watered down or dropped. He couldn;t give a t8ss about conservatives or conservatism, in fact he genuinely despises us.
Of course, it was Leave's sainted IDS who bound his MPs into the totally untenable position of scrapping tuition fees - a clumsy gimmick that did his fortunes no good whatsoever. It was Remain's man, Alan Johnson, whose political brilliance saw the policy through the House.
GReek MoD confirms bodies, #MS804 plane parts and backages found 5 miles south of spot where #EgyptAir flight went off radar
Being confirmed by multiple sources now, very close to last known position. Hopefully answers can be provided to the families of the bereaved sooner rather than later.
The Conservative Remain campaign needed to be much more in David Herdson's spirit (whom I totally respect) and recognise that how it was won was as important as winning itself.
So all the Luuvies back remain....I wish somebody would get a super injunction against these round Robin letters!!! Also is more likely to have me vote leave, because the Luuvies are pretty much wrong know everything when it comes to politics!
Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,
Given the disgraceful way Cameron has behaved towards half of his Party it was always going to be thus...
Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU.... Just goes to show what a passionate and devoted Europhile he must have been all the way along.
I honestly don't know if I'll be able to bear remaining a member of the Conservative Party after 24th June, even if I do lose a vote in the next leadership election by doing so.
The Conservative Remain campaign needed to be much more in David Herdson's spirit (whom I totally respect) and recognise that how it was won was as important as winning itself.
Instead we got the full fucking George Osborne treatment, and it's made me totally and utterly furious.
Cameron's terror is that he might become the scorn of the Bildeberg set by losing the referendum. This is what explains his behaviour imo.
The Conservative Remain campaign needed to be much more in David Herdson's spirit (whom I totally respect) and recognise that how it was won was as important as winning itself.
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle
If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.
Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.
There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.
I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.
A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.
As long at Cameron (and Osborne) finish up being devoured and thrown to the wolves I don't really care.
Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU....
Oh dear. The Brexiteers don't seem to be in a happy place this morning...
Cameron has destroyed his government. No, he's still PM of a majority Government
Cameron has destroyed his party. No, the bastards who tried to do it in the 90s get credit for that
Cameron has destroyed his legacy. No, if he wins he will be the guy who won 2 referendums
Cameron has destroyed his authority. No, see points 2 and 3 above
Apart from that, good post.
We'll have to wait and see. But, the government does come across as a shambles, and Cameron's own ratings are now poor.
David Cameron's time in government shows he has zero principles beyond maintaining the Davos/Bilderberg let your betters handle this system that we have now.
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle
If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.
I don't know, I feel any reshuffle will be portrayed as "revenge" regardless of what actually happens, assuming at least one LEAVE minister is reshuffled at all.
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
His decision to pre-announce his departure is looking like a very smart move now. I think he must have realised he couldn't get through the referendum unscathed.
I have been wondering whether these last few weeks have actually seen him clearing his desks - resolved doctors' strike (maybe), and so on. I wouldn't be totally shocked were he to announce his resignation in the event of either result on June 24. That said, it's an outside chance if Remain wins; walking out on his party having just given much of it an electoral defeat just looks too MacDonaldesque.
Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,
Given the disgraceful way Cameron has behaved towards half of his Party it was always going to be thus...
Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU.... Just goes to show what a passionate and devoted Europhile he must have been all the way along.
I honestly don't know if I'll be able to bear remaining a member of the Conservative Party after 24th June, even if I do lose a vote in the next leadership election by doing so.
The Conservative Remain campaign needed to be much more in David Herdson's spirit (whom I totally respect) and recognise that how it was won was as important as winning itself.
Instead we got the full fucking George Osborne treatment, and it's made me totally and utterly furious.
Cameron's terror is that he might become the scorn of the Bildeberg set by losing the referendum. This is what explains his behaviour imo.
There's almost certainly a lot of very lucrative, financial incentives waiting for him via the "Bildebergers" when he "retires" and leaves a broken and ruined Party in his wake.
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle
If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.
I don't think there's much chance of that from your fellow Remainers, David. They'll want to rub it in as much as possible.
What the Osbornite wing really want is our votes, our help and our money but to otherwise STFU and always agree with them, even when they insult us, laugh at us, patronise us and work directly against our beliefs and interests, as part of a political positioning strategy.
Well...people were saying the EU should get involved in the debate:
The president of the European Commission has warned British voters ahead of next month’s referendum on EU membership that “deserters will not be welcomed back with open arms”.
On the subject of Conservative MPs voting against the Queen's Speech, I thought about writing a thread header but then realised that I had already done so:
Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU....
Oh dear. The Brexiteers don't seem to be in a happy place this morning...
Cameron has destroyed his government. No, he's still PM of a majority Government
Cameron has destroyed his party. No, the bastards who tried to do it in the 90s get credit for that
Cameron has destroyed his legacy. No, if he wins he will be the guy who won 2 referendums
Cameron has destroyed his authority. No, see points 2 and 3 above
Apart from that, good post.
We'll have to wait and see. But, the government does come across as a shambles, and Cameron's own ratings are now poor.
David Cameron's time in government shows he has zero principles beyond maintaining the Davos/Bilderberg let your betters handle this system that we have now.
I expect that's why he's held THREE referendums.......curiously he extended the franchise beyond the 'Davos / Bilderberg / Betters' set......
That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
No
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
There is no gratitude in politics.
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Well...people were saying the EU should get involved in the debate:
The president of the European Commission has warned British voters ahead of next month’s referendum on EU membership that “deserters will not be welcomed back with open arms”.
On the subject of Conservative MPs voting against the Queen's Speech, I thought about writing a thread header but then realised that I had already done so:
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
His decision to pre-announce his departure is looking like a very smart move now. I think he must have realised he couldn't get through the referendum unscathed.
To be honest I suspect that was a 'slip of the tongue' - a friendly kitchen chat with a fellow OE and it just popped out. No doubt before hand it has been a topic of serious discussion with his wife - but I suspect he's keen to avoid Powell's maxim on political lives...and would have announced it after EURef in this Parliament.
@Casino_Royale Conservative rightwingers have voted against a Conservative budget and now are voting against a Conservative Queen's Speech. It's pretty clear who are the wreckers in this process.
Well...people were saying the EU should get involved in the debate:
The president of the European Commission has warned British voters ahead of next month’s referendum on EU membership that “deserters will not be welcomed back with open arms”.
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle
If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.
Some more than others though. For the very small minority (I have my little list), revenge is a dish best served cold.
@Casino_Royale Conservative rightwingers have voted against a Conservative budget and now are voting against a Conservative Queen's Speech. It's pretty clear who are the wreckers in this process.
It's interesting that each time it has happened, the "right wingers" have chosen a cause one might consider broadly to the Gov'ts left (Social chapter, NHS/TTIP) !
That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
No
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
There is no gratitude in politics.
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
Of course, it was Leave's sainted IDS who bound his MPs into the totally untenable position of scrapping tuition fees - a clumsy gimmick that did his fortunes no good whatsoever. It was Remain's man, Alan Johnson, whose political brilliance saw the policy through the House.
Scrapping tuition fees was tenable. It might even have been cheaper.
@Casino_Royale Conservative rightwingers have voted against a Conservative budget and now are voting against a Conservative Queen's Speech. It's pretty clear who are the wreckers in this process.
Why woulkd you vote for something you don't believe in ?
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle
If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.
they insult us, laugh at us, patronise us and work directly against our beliefs and interests,
Discipline does seem to have broken down completely in this government,
Given the disgraceful way Cameron has behaved towards half of his Party it was always going to be thus...
Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU.... Just goes to show what a passionate and devoted Europhile he must have been all the way along.
I honestly don't know if I'll be able to bear remaining a member of the Conservative Party after 24th June, even if I do lose a vote in the next leadership election by doing so.
The Conservative Remain campaign needed to be much more in David Herdson's spirit (whom I totally respect) and recognise that how it was won was as important as winning itself.
Instead we got the full fucking George Osborne treatment, and it's made me totally and utterly furious.
Cameron's terror is that he might become the scorn of the Bildeberg set by losing the referendum. This is what explains his behaviour imo.
There's almost certainly a lot of very lucrative, financial incentives waiting for him via the "Bildebergers" when he "retires" and leaves a broken and ruined Party in his wake.
I don't adhere your theory of Bildeberg and World Government myself, but you raise an interesting theoretical point. How much power does the World Government actually possess? Clearly the World Government wants a Remain vote, but can it enforce that on its own, or does it need to coerce nation 'leaders' like Cameron to enforce its agenda. Moreover is Cameron himself part of the World Government or is he merely its unwitting stooge?
That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
No
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
There is no gratitude in politics.
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - have been fans of David Cameron since 2005, until the day he decided that a deal about tampons was the best thing since sliced bread and we would have WWIII if we didn't vote for it. I paraphrase only slightly.
Most Tories expected a jovial contest with Gove and Hannan on one side, Osborne and May on the other, with the PM being the PM and keeping the peace. The result would settle the issue and we would all move on. The vitriolic debate about war and famine originated in the leader's office, splitting the party in half. There will be no reconciliation without a change in that leadership.
Betting angle: Theresa May, still 8/1 as next PM. The party will need a grandee to pull itself back together, with a tiny majority that has to be done over the summer if Parliament is to be able to pass anything in the autumn.
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle
If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.
Some more than others though. For the very small minority (I have my little list), revenge is a dish best served cold.
I'm not a member of the CP, but the trend on PB seems to be tory remainers saying peace and harmony will break out and divisions will heal and the leavers say 4cough.
@Alanbrooke I have the lurking suspicion that this particular group of MPs are more likely to want to privatise the NHS than to protect it from the ravages of TTIP, but see the opportunity to create chaos against a hated leader.
That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
No
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
There is no gratitude in politics.
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......
Well...people were saying the EU should get involved in the debate:
The president of the European Commission has warned British voters ahead of next month’s referendum on EU membership that “deserters will not be welcomed back with open arms”.
@Alanbrooke I have the lurking suspicion that this particular group of MPs are more likely to want to privatise the NHS than to protect it from the ravages of TTIP, but see the opportunity to create chaos against a hated leader.
English sunday trading and the SNP is springing to mind for some reason.
@Casino_Royale Conservative rightwingers have voted against a Conservative budget and now are voting against a Conservative Queen's Speech. It's pretty clear who are the wreckers in this process.
Of course they would argue that it wasn't really a Conservative budget or Conservative Queen speech - rather fudges to tide the government over until after the referendum.
@Casino_Royale Conservative rightwingers have voted against a Conservative budget and now are voting against a Conservative Queen's Speech. It's pretty clear who are the wreckers in this process.
@Alanbrooke I have the lurking suspicion that this particular group of MPs are more likely to want to privatise the NHS than to protect it from the ravages of TTIP, but see the opportunity to create chaos against a hated leader.
Quite possibly, But the problem Cameron seems to face is that he can't do a trade to keep his righties on board. Nobody gets everything they want, but if the get enough they don't rock the boat. Currebtly Cameron's offer is suck it up.
I printed out the graph of the modelled probability distribution and made a rough measurement of the areas to get probability by Remain percentage band. It comes out something like this:
Under 45%: 6% 45% to 50%: 13%
[i.e 19% probability of a Remain win]
50% to 55%: 22% 55% to 60%: 25% 60% to 65%: 19% Over 65%: 14%
Contrast with midpoint Betfair implied probabilities:
Under 45%: 5% 45% to 50%: 17%
50% to 55%: 29% 55% to 60%: 30% 60% to 65%: 15% Over 65%: 6%
Not too inconsistent. Might be a case of garabge in, garbage out, of course. Of the two sets, the Betfair probabilities look more plausible to me, the NCP model looks too flat (i.e it gives too high a probability to the extremes of the distribution). But who knows?
That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
No
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
There is no gratitude in politics.
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
The difference is that New Labour was an anomaly in the history of the party, an attempt to take the place of the natural party of government from the Tories.
In contrast Cameron is a very typical Tory leader in a party where there are irreconcilable splits on one single issue.
@Alanbrooke I have the lurking suspicion that this particular group of MPs are more likely to want to privatise the NHS than to protect it from the ravages of TTIP, but see the opportunity to create chaos against a hated leader.
It sounds like the Posh Boys have pretty much bankrupted the NHS anyway...
@Alanbrooke The offer to the Conservative right wing runs as follows: "You wanted a referendum, you got a referendum. Problem?"
To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle
If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.
Some more than others though. For the very small minority (I have my little list), revenge is a dish best served cold.
Don't the Tories who are at each other's throats feel guilty, don't they have a responsibility to allow the electorate to have a moderate right wing party to vote for? Or are they as guilty a Labour who have deprived the electorate of a moderate left wing party to vote for?
I printed out the graph of the modelled probability distribution and made a rough measurement of the areas to get probability by Remain percentage band. It comes out something like this:
Under 45%: 6% 45% to 50%: 13%
[i.e 19% probability of a Remain win]
50% to 55%: 22% 55% to 60%: 25% 60% to 65%: 19% Over 65%: 14%
Contrast with midpoint Betfair implied probabilities:
Under 45%: 5% 45% to 50%: 17%
50% to 55%: 29% 55% to 60%: 30% 60% to 65%: 15% Over 65%: 6%
Not too inconsistent. Might be a case of garabge in, garbage out, of course. Of the two sets, the Betfair probabilities look more plausible to me, the NCP model looks too flat (i.e it gives too high a probability to the extremes of the distribution). But
Thanks for doing the relevant integrations Richard.
Is there a good reason to assume non normal distribution though, or are his SDs wrong in your view ?
To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".
...because we couldn't organise a drunken party in an establishment dedicated to the production of alcohol...
...as we have demonstrated repeatedly over the years.
Whats up with the hate for Dave? Not happy he carried the party to a majority on the back of personal ratings well in excess of the party? Think a more right wing leader would have done better? Any leaver who blames him for the divisions in the Tories should take a look a little closer to home. The same idiots making the same mistakes again and again. Elections aren't won by divided parties and they aren't won with non liberal social views nowadays. Those days are gone, at least for now. Personally anyone who keeps Labour out of government will gain my gratitude and can't be doing too much wrong. Perhaps some of the more vocal critics in parliament should reflect on why the Tories currently have a majority.
@Alanbrooke The offer to the Conservative right wing runs as follows: "You wanted a referendum, you got a referendum. Problem?"
To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".
That's not actually how righties see it. The EU ref is simply one of a variety of points on which righties disagree.
On the EU ref specifically Cameron is playing fast and loose on pretending he negotiated anything meaningful, overplaying his hand to stay in and using givernment as the spendeing arm of remain. The Leave campaign is fairly shambolic and is unlikely to win so I never quite see why Cameron didn't leave an uncoordinated bunch to marinate in their own juices. He's still win and not have the rancour. As it is I can't see his hopes of healing a rift being remotely realistic.
Thanks for doing the relevant integrations Richard.
Is there a good reason to assume non normal distribution though, or are his SDs wrong in your view ?
I think the SDs look wrong, but in addition a normal distribution in something like this is a bit rough-and-ready. It is after all bounded absolutely at 0 and 100, and in practice at something much tighter than that.
Edit: Correction to my original post, I of course meant a 19% probability of a Leave win
@Alanbrooke I have been predicting for a long time that the Conservatives will be hopelessly riven for a long time to come after the referendum. If UKIP weren't headed by Nigel Farage, I'd see the chances of a chunk of the Conservative right shearing off to join them as substantial.
Ironically, Douglas Carswell's experiences may well have been good for the Conservative party in the long term. What Conservative MP would rush to risk getting involved in UKIP's Game Of Thrones re-enactment?
To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".
...because we couldn't organise a drunken party in an establishment dedicated to the production of alcohol...
...as we have demonstrated repeatedly over the years.
"We were relying on Dave to organise it but at the last minute it turns out he'd rather organise a bun fight in a bakery."
That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
No
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
There is no gratitude in politics.
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
In that respect it's no different than Labour. Activists hate Tory Tony.
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
They certainly seem as determined not to learn from history......
It always strikes me as funny how the Cameroons think everyone else has to learn and they don't.
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
There's the shambles over the non-negotiation, negotiation fiasco. There's flying in POTUS to threaten his own citizens in their own country (at the taxpayers expense) there's the decade of lying about being a eurosceptic, there's the claims that people who want to leave the EU are supporters of ISIS, Putin, North Korea, etc. etc. etc.
I printed out the graph of the modelled probability distribution and made a rough measurement of the areas to get probability by Remain percentage band. It comes out something like this:
Under 45%: 6% 45% to 50%: 13%
[i.e 19% probability of a Remain win]
50% to 55%: 22% 55% to 60%: 25% 60% to 65%: 19% Over 65%: 14%
Contrast with midpoint Betfair implied probabilities:
Under 45%: 5% 45% to 50%: 17%
50% to 55%: 29% 55% to 60%: 30% 60% to 65%: 15% Over 65%: 6%
Not too inconsistent. Might be a case of garabge in, garbage out, of course. Of the two sets, the Betfair probabilities look more plausible to me, the NCP model looks too flat (i.e it gives too high a probability to the extremes of the distribution). But who knows?
Should the Betfair numbers add up to 100%? They currently add up to 102%
By and large, he's done very well there. He's been leader for more than a decade - the fourth-longest serving Tory leader since the role became permanently established - and hasn't faced any meaningful challenge in that time. I think he may have run out of luck this time though (or deprived himself of it given his behaviour during the EURef).
If remain wins, I would not be very surprised if there is a "back me or sack me" moment before any "revenge" reshuffle
If there's a revenge reshuffle after a Remain win, he'll be out by the conference. Either way, he (or someone) needs to heal the rift. Kicking a majority of the party and a sizable minority of the MPs when they're feeling sore is inviting trouble. He's on borrowed time anyway so there'll be no compunction about dumping him if it's felt necessary, or even if it's just felt like justified payback. Leavers will need to be held close and loved.
Some more than others though. For the very small minority (I have my little list), revenge is a dish best served cold.
I'm not a member of the CP, but the trend on PB seems to be tory remainers saying peace and harmony will break out and divisions will heal and the leavers say 4cough.
You both can't be right.
Assuming (and who knows?) Remain win comfortably, say 10% or more, the vast majority (90%) of Leave MPs and members will want the party re-united, and that sentiment has to be reflected in any Ministerial reshuffle. Yes, Gove, Pritti Patel and Boris have doubtless irritated the leadership but what has surprised me (and going back to my callow youth days of 1975) is the singular absence of Tory backbench MPs, in this instance, lambasting each other on TV or social media. A splendid example of campaigning without rancour is my own MP, Dom Raab, who is a prominent leaver.
But there IS the matter of the 10% or so irreconciliable MPs - the David Davis, Philip Davies, Bernard Jenkin, Steven Baker, the Mogg, and a number of others. The Government's tiny majority does mean they can be held hostage at any time, and indeed many of these were rebels in the 2010 Parliament, so the current referendum campaign is simply an excuse for serial disloyalty. I'm afraid there's not much any mainstream leader can do to assuage them for the present.
Perhaps if the Tories are enjoying a double-digit lead in the run-up to 2020, a few of the most egregious could be ejected from the parliamentary party, and barred from standing as Conservative candidates at the election!
@Alanbrooke I have been predicting for a long time that the Conservatives will be hopelessly riven for a long time to come after the referendum. If UKIP weren't headed by Nigel Farage, I'd see the chances of a chunk of the Conservative right shearing off to join them as substantial.
Ironically, Douglas Carswell's experiences may well have been good for the Conservative party in the long term. What Conservative MP would rush to risk getting involved in UKIP's Game Of Thrones re-enactment?
Yes I'd agree with that.
While I regularly get accused of being a kipper, I don't vote for them as I think Farage is a prat. If they got a half decent leader I'd seriously consider it.
That he seems to be going out of his way to actively antagonise over a hundred of his MPs isn't going to help the cause.
No
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
There is no gratitude in politics.
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - have been fans of David Cameron since 2005, until the day he decided that a deal about tampons was the best thing since sliced bread and we would have WWIII if we didn't vote for it. I paraphrase only slightly.
Most Tories expected a jovial contest with Gove and Hannan on one side, Osborne and May on the other, with the PM being the PM and keeping the peace.
Then they are very naive.
It has been clear from the start that Cameron has always supported the UK remaining in the EU and all his policy steps, including promising the referendum and the renegotiation process, have been taken with that aim in mind.
He has effectively conned a large section of his own party over a long period, and that is why they are so angry.
@Alanbrooke The offer to the Conservative right wing runs as follows: "You wanted a referendum, you got a referendum. Problem?"
To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".
He's still win and not have the rancour. As it is I can't see his hopes of healing a rift being remotely realistic.
If there's one thing the right wing of the Tories do well, its rancour......whatever the result of the REMAIN margin (assuming it is REMAIN) the Right will be in a huff that will make Heath's 'Great Sulk' seem reasonable and proportionate by comparison......
Comments
O.K guys, does anyone know where I can buy some nice jeans that are not f@king skinny or strtch for under £30? please.
Anthee Carassava @antheecarassava [a Times journalist]
GReek MoD confirms bodies, #MS804 plane parts and backages found 5 miles south of spot where #EgyptAir flight went off radar
http://www.metcheck.com/UK/today.asp?zipcode=Leeds&locationID=57246&lat=53.8&lon=-1.5&findtype=
But luck tends to be fickle. Really he should have done a Harold Wilson on this leaving himself free to playing healing influence post the vote.
Shall be published on Sunday.
Cameron has destroyed everything (his government, his party, his legacy, his authority) for the EU.... Just goes to show what a passionate and devoted Europhile he must have been all the way along.
He has given them the referendum they always craved.
It's not his fault they are fking it up.
See also Scotland...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/david-cameron-is-like-neville-chamberlain-telegraph-reader-huber/
The Conservative Remain campaign needed to be much more in David Herdson's spirit (whom I totally respect) and recognise that how it was won was as important as winning itself.
Instead we got the full fucking George Osborne treatment, and it's made me totally and utterly furious.
Cameron has destroyed his government. No, he's still PM of a majority GovernmentCameron has destroyed his party. No, the bastards who tried to do it in the 90s get credit for thatCameron has destroyed his legacy. No, if he wins he will be the guy who won 2 referendumsCameron has destroyed his authority. No, see points 2 and 3 aboveApart from that, good post.
Cameron has destroyed his legacy. No, if he wins he will be the guy who won 2 THREE referendumsSome unelected body I daresay. Can we not leave and negotiate our own cricket series rules bilaterally?
You hate us; we hate you.
Let's party.
oh, and You are Boris Johnson and I Claim my £5
What the Osbornite wing really want is our votes, our help and our money but to otherwise STFU and always agree with them, even when they insult us, laugh at us, patronise us and work directly against our beliefs and interests, as part of a political positioning strategy.
Yup. Who wouldn't be up for that?
On that note, I bid you good day.
The president of the European Commission has warned British voters ahead of next month’s referendum on EU membership that “deserters will not be welcomed back with open arms”.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a40e4c0-1e6e-11e6-b286-cddde55ca122.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/companies/feed//product#axzz49Bmr86ww
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/03/21/alastair-meeks-says-the-eurosceptics-are-destroying-the-conservative-party/
A large % of the Tories on here - and presumably elsewhere - will never be reconciled to Cameron's leadership and, election winner or not, they want him gone.
Do you seriously expect us to take a thread that starts with "the Eurosceptic right of the Conservative party is insane", seriously?
I could equally say that anyone voting Remain is either blind, deluded, ignorant, or stupid.
And there would be more merit in it.
Same here. He's got this winning elections so you can exercise power thing figured out.......something not all of his critics appear to grasp.....
Tony sent his wing in to the wilderness and then we got Jezza. Tories might well go the same way.
Most Tories expected a jovial contest with Gove and Hannan on one side, Osborne and May on the other, with the PM being the PM and keeping the peace. The result would settle the issue and we would all move on. The vitriolic debate about war and famine originated in the leader's office, splitting the party in half. There will be no reconciliation without a change in that leadership.
Betting angle: Theresa May, still 8/1 as next PM. The party will need a grandee to pull itself back together, with a tiny majority that has to be done over the summer if Parliament is to be able to pass anything in the autumn.
You both can't be right.
Really?
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/euref/
I printed out the graph of the modelled probability distribution and made a rough measurement of the areas to get probability by Remain percentage band. It comes out something like this:
Under 45%: 6%
45% to 50%: 13%
[i.e 19% probability of a Remain win]
50% to 55%: 22%
55% to 60%: 25%
60% to 65%: 19%
Over 65%: 14%
Contrast with midpoint Betfair implied probabilities:
Under 45%: 5%
45% to 50%: 17%
50% to 55%: 29%
55% to 60%: 30%
60% to 65%: 15%
Over 65%: 6%
Not too inconsistent. Might be a case of garabge in, garbage out, of course. Of the two sets, the Betfair probabilities look more plausible to me, the NCP model looks too flat (i.e it gives too high a probability to the extremes of the distribution). But who knows?
In contrast Cameron is a very typical Tory leader in a party where there are irreconcilable splits on one single issue.
To which the honest answer is: "Yes, because we didn't really want a referendum, we wanted out of the EU and we're pissed off because it doesn't look like it's going to happen".
Is there a good reason to assume non normal distribution though, or are his SDs wrong in your view ?
...as we have demonstrated repeatedly over the years.
Any leaver who blames him for the divisions in the Tories should take a look a little closer to home. The same idiots making the same mistakes again and again. Elections aren't won by divided parties and they aren't won with non liberal social views nowadays. Those days are gone, at least for now.
Personally anyone who keeps Labour out of government will gain my gratitude and can't be doing too much wrong. Perhaps some of the more vocal critics in parliament should reflect on why the Tories currently have a majority.
On the EU ref specifically Cameron is playing fast and loose on pretending he negotiated anything meaningful, overplaying his hand to stay in and using givernment as the spendeing arm of remain. The Leave campaign is fairly shambolic and is unlikely to win so I never quite see why Cameron didn't leave an uncoordinated bunch to marinate in their own juices. He's still win and not have the rancour. As it is I can't see his hopes of healing a rift being remotely realistic.
Edit: Correction to my original post, I of course meant a 19% probability of a Leave win
Chances of winning:
72% Remain – 28% Leave
Result forecast:
Remain 54% – Leave 46%
Margin of error ±13 pts
Singh:
81% Remain – 19% Leave
Remain 56.4%
90% CI ±11.9 pts (Normal distribution)
Ironically, Douglas Carswell's experiences may well have been good for the Conservative party in the long term. What Conservative MP would rush to risk getting involved in UKIP's Game Of Thrones re-enactment?
The history lessons apply to you too. It takes two to split.
There's the shambles over the non-negotiation, negotiation fiasco. There's flying in POTUS to threaten his own citizens in their own country (at the taxpayers expense) there's the decade of lying about being a eurosceptic, there's the claims that people who want to leave the EU are supporters of ISIS, Putin, North Korea, etc. etc. etc.
But there IS the matter of the 10% or so irreconciliable MPs - the David Davis, Philip Davies, Bernard Jenkin, Steven Baker, the Mogg, and a number of others. The Government's tiny majority does mean they can be held hostage at any time, and indeed many of these were rebels in the 2010 Parliament, so the current referendum campaign is simply an excuse for serial disloyalty. I'm afraid there's not much any mainstream leader can do to assuage them for the present.
Perhaps if the Tories are enjoying a double-digit lead in the run-up to 2020, a few of the most egregious could be ejected from the parliamentary party, and barred from standing as Conservative candidates at the election!
While I regularly get accused of being a kipper, I don't vote for them as I think Farage is a prat.
If they got a half decent leader I'd seriously consider it.
It has been clear from the start that Cameron has always supported the UK remaining in the EU and all his policy steps, including promising the referendum and the renegotiation process, have been taken with that aim in mind.
He has effectively conned a large section of his own party over a long period, and that is why they are so angry.