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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    JackW said:

    John

    Are you an OUTER or will you be voting with your demographic?

    Is there a male OAP, former council leader and sporadic south coast train travelling demographic?

    I didn't know Scotland had a south coast...

    Solway Firth obviously. One of the most dangerous stretches of coastline in Britain due the incredibly fast tides.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,160
    This campaign makes Indyref look a beacon of incisive analysis.

    The only consolation is it doesn't last 3 years.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    OllyT said:

    Mortimer said:

    I do hope that the luvvvie letter is dismissed by someone who is popular amongst the groups most likely to vote Leave - someone like Ian Botham - as people used to the limelight who don't have enough faith in the public they want to watch their shows making a good decision.

    Apparently we also have Liz Hurley. TBH, I'm just glad the worst self-righteous luvvies are getting told to bugger off. The Guardian's frontpage is so awkward - a whole slab of celeb mugshots, next to a giant headline about child sex abuse.

    If that was the Mail, I could understand the piss-taking...

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733404605292249089
    Why do you get so exercised about other people expressing their opinion? We all get a vote, we can all voice our opinions. If what other people is so inconsequential why do you regularly post links to any old nonentity that has said something in favour of Leave?

    Your attempt to infer a link between the celebrity Remainers and child abuse is beneath contempt, but not really surprising unfortunately.
    To be fair the layout of that front page is quite awful, with the juxtaposition of the headline and picture. I'd not be too happy if that were my picture next to those words. Has anyone seen a later edition anywhere, did they change it?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,503
    I may actually back this Kickstarter for a graphic novel, even though I've never committed or bought either before. Mr. Eagles should fast forward to 2.08:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbDXYf51RZw
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,575
    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PeterMannionMP: Vote Leave happily pimped support of Michael Caine, Beefy and fella from The Who, now 282 sign a #Remain letter it's all 'keep out luvvies'.

    Beyond stupid;

    “From the Bard to Bowie, British creativity inspires and influences the rest of the world,” it says. “We believe that being part of the EU bolsters Britain’s leading role on the world stage.”
    Have you written a part for me, darling?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    Grow old disgracefully....I mean, look at Jack: he must be 120 by now.

    A disgraceful comment.

    I may have to take out a Super Injunction to prevent further reporting. Good lord at 120 it's a miracle "I'm still standing" ....

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I'm just putting together a post on referendum tactical voting which might be right thing for one section of the electorate to do.



  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    JackW said:

    JohnO said:

    Grow old disgracefully....I mean, look at Jack: he must be 120 by now.

    A disgraceful comment.

    I may have to take out a Super Injunction to prevent further reporting. Good lord at 120 it's a miracle "I'm still standing" ....

    Can I clarify. Jack revealed his then age of 103 when he first started posting on PB in 2004. So he is not 120 but 116 years old now.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Jonathan said:

    Quite astonishing that the Government has had to accept a hostile amendment criticising the Queen's Speech:

    http://link.huffingtonpost.com/view/524aa3dc3227b874ccf8030140x1g.5pb/51583237

    To all intents and purposes, the Government no longer has a reliable majority.

    Further down there's an interview with Khan which may interest Cyclefree and others. I think he's got a fair point that Trump and others may well think that nearly all Muslims are bonkers since that's the only news reports they see about them.

    Whilst we distract ourselves with euref this govt is turning out to be the weakest I can remember. </block

    but the official opposition is weaker...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    OllyT said:

    Mortimer said:

    I do hope that the luvvvie letter is dismissed by someone who is popular amongst the groups most likely to vote Leave - someone like Ian Botham - as people used to the limelight who don't have enough faith in the public they want to watch their shows making a good decision.

    Apparently we also have Liz Hurley. TBH, I'm just glad the worst self-righteous luvvies are getting told to bugger off. The Guardian's frontpage is so awkward - a whole slab of celeb mugshots, next to a giant headline about child sex abuse.

    If that was the Mail, I could understand the piss-taking...

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733404605292249089
    Why do you get so exercised about other people expressing their opinion? We all get a vote, we can all voice our opinions. If what other people is so inconsequential why do you regularly post links to any old nonentity that has said something in favour of Leave?

    Your attempt to infer a link between the celebrity Remainers and child abuse is beneath contempt, but not really surprising unfortunately.
    You're getting exercised here, not me.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,575
    Wanderer said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection :

    Should The United Kingdom Remain A Member Of The European Union Or Leave The European Union?

    Remain 56% (+2) .. Leave 44% (-2)

    Turnout Projection 65% (+1)

    Changes from 17th May.

    ......................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE4EU - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors For European Union

    The Arse jumps on the bandwagon ;)
    The herding begins.... We'll know it's got serious when Rod Crosby falls into line.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Sandpit said:

    OllyT said:

    Mortimer said:

    I do hope that the luvvvie letter is dismissed by someone who is popular amongst the groups most likely to vote Leave - someone like Ian Botham - as people used to the limelight who don't have enough faith in the public they want to watch their shows making a good decision.

    Apparently we also have Liz Hurley. TBH, I'm just glad the worst self-righteous luvvies are getting told to bugger off. The Guardian's frontpage is so awkward - a whole slab of celeb mugshots, next to a giant headline about child sex abuse.

    If that was the Mail, I could understand the piss-taking...

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733404605292249089
    Why do you get so exercised about other people expressing their opinion? We all get a vote, we can all voice our opinions. If what other people is so inconsequential why do you regularly post links to any old nonentity that has said something in favour of Leave?

    Your attempt to infer a link between the celebrity Remainers and child abuse is beneath contempt, but not really surprising unfortunately.
    To be fair the layout of that front page is quite awful, with the juxtaposition of the headline and picture. I'd not be too happy if that were my picture next to those words. Has anyone seen a later edition anywhere, did they change it?
    They haven't - same image on morning paper reviews.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,866

    I'm just putting together a post on referendum tactical voting which might be right thing for one section of the electorate to do.



    The decision is too important to vote tactically on. Like Boris saying at one point that we should vote Leave so we could renegotiate a better deal and then Remain.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Can I clarify. Jack revealed his then age of 103 when he first started posting on PB in 2004. So he is not 120 but 116 years old now.

    120 ?!??! .... I blame @JohnO .... he feels like a 20 year old, I feel like six of them together ....

    Woof woof .... life in the old dog yet .... :smiley:

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130

    JackW said:

    JohnO said:

    Grow old disgracefully....I mean, look at Jack: he must be 120 by now.

    A disgraceful comment.

    I may have to take out a Super Injunction to prevent further reporting. Good lord at 120 it's a miracle "I'm still standing" ....

    Can I clarify. Jack revealed his then age of 103 when he first started posting on PB in 2004. So he is not 120 but 116 years old now.
    So our Jack is a reverse young actress, actually a few years younger than he says he is!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    The herding begins.... We'll know it's got serious when Rod Crosby falls into line.

    It'll all be over when Rasmussen call it for REMAIN the evening before voting.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Lovely story about our POWs writing 20 Carry On scripts/starring in them - http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/we-can-thank-the-nazis-for-carry-on-films-5tw5p2qtv
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.


    There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
    That's why it's very hard to find many Leavers amongst Labour voters, still less Labour members. No self-respecting Labourite would want to be seen to be supporting a campaign led by IDS and Farage.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning all. Let us return for a mo, to the Greek story:

    Why the EU is keeping quiet about Greek debt

    The eurozone should stop pussyfooting around and accept the country will never pay back its creditors
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/why-the-eu-is-keeping-quiet-about-greek-debt-f3s9bw39n

    So let's all Remain in the big European La La Land; the biggest Ponzi Scheme in the world.

    To be fair, Mike, every debt crisis in history is "solved" via the process of "extend and pretend". If you keep pushing back maturities and giving interest holidays, eventually inflation solved the problem.
    But we don't have any inflation. How do you contrive a soft default without it? Print?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:

    The herding begins.... We'll know it's got serious when Rod Crosby falls into line.

    It'll all be over when Rasmussen call it for REMAIN the evening before voting.

    I like how Rasmussen don't release demographic information for their polls.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249

    This campaign makes Indyref look a beacon of incisive analysis.

    The only consolation is it doesn't last 3 years.

    Was it really that short? It felt longer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411

    I'm just putting together a post on referendum tactical voting which might be right thing for one section of the electorate to do.



    o_O A tactical vote in a 2 horse race :p ?!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,607
    JackW said:

    JohnO said:

    Grow old disgracefully....I mean, look at Jack: he must be 120 by now.

    A disgraceful comment.

    I may have to take out a Super Injunction to prevent further reporting. Good lord at 120 it's a miracle "I'm still standing" ....

    As Mr Marshall Mathers III might have opined, had he been aware of politicalbetting.com:

    From his track "Reading PB"

    "And Jack W, you'll get re-tweeted by Scott P, your 113 year old ARSE mystifies me
    It's no good, you're too old and too slow, nobody listens to John O"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    TOPPING said:

    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    chestnut said:

    Remain = Tories against Tory government.

    No

    Remain = Tories against closet Kippers on the Tory backbenches seizing power
    If you can't understand, even when someone like Paul Mason spells it out in the most explicit of ways, then you are beyond help.

    The left are voting Remain to ensure that we don't have a full blown Tory government and that we have the EU keeping them on a lead until such time that someone like Comrade Corbyn wins.

    That's Remain.
    Dave Nellist isn't.

    LEXIT!!
    Nor are George Galloway or Tommy Sheridan
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,135
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Alistair said:

    I like how Rasmussen don't release demographic information for their polls.

    It's available to their "Platinum" subscribers if you feel like having a good chortle for a few dollars more .... full of the good, the bad and the ugly side of US polling.

  • Is there any EU ref pollimg from before April?

    Yes lots

    Wikipedia has poll results going back to 2010

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
    Thank you. Looking at those tables, I'm struck by the bizarrely low numbers for dk. Surely we have shy dkers pretending to have plumped for a side - like a reverse pb. I can't think of another explanation.
    I am coming to the conclusion that the polls have nothing to ground themselves on so unless someone fancies doing a 100,000+ person poll to set a baseline we might as well wait until 10pm on Thursday 23rd and see what the exit poll says.

    Obviously if the polls shift in one direction or the other then that is noteworthy but we don't really know what the base level is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    Scott_P said:
    Fair enough, just so long as no women only clubs are allowed either
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    TheSFCEmpire4152 days ago
    Im a Bernie supporter but ill risk a Trump presidency to wake up the DNC and let the know we never wanted her crooked ass from the beginning

    60 likes
  • Pulpstar said:

    I'm just putting together a post on referendum tactical voting which might be right thing for one section of the electorate to do.



    o_O A tactical vote in a 2 horse race :p ?!
    I suspect he means SNP supporters voting leave on the grounds it makes a new indyref more feasible

    Ok but a bit dangerous as you can't have too many doing it or you would end up with Scotland voting leave which would rather shoot their fox.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    edited May 2016
    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning all. Let us return for a mo, to the Greek story:

    Why the EU is keeping quiet about Greek debt

    The eurozone should stop pussyfooting around and accept the country will never pay back its creditors
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/why-the-eu-is-keeping-quiet-about-greek-debt-f3s9bw39n

    So let's all Remain in the big European La La Land; the biggest Ponzi Scheme in the world.

    To be fair, Mike, every debt crisis in history is "solved" via the process of "extend and pretend". If you keep pushing back maturities and giving interest holidays, eventually inflation solved the problem.
    Really?

    You are missing out:

    Seizure of assets - "bloodlettings"
    Takeovers - Scotland and Newfoundland.

    And where is this inflation in Europe and going to come from? I can see where the takeover is coming from.
  • Looking at the Opinon polling for the London Mayor elections in 2008 it looks like the Online polls (ie Yougov) got it right plumping for Bozza by about 44-36 but the Telephone Polls got it wrong showing a draw or Leninspart winning

    Just saying

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2008
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,575
    stodge said:

    JackW said:

    JohnO said:

    Grow old disgracefully....I mean, look at Jack: he must be 120 by now.

    A disgraceful comment.

    I may have to take out a Super Injunction to prevent further reporting. Good lord at 120 it's a miracle "I'm still standing" ....

    As Mr Marshall Mathers III might have opined, had he been aware of politicalbetting.com:

    From his track "Reading PB"

    "And Jack W, you'll get re-tweeted by Scott P, your 113 year old ARSE mystifies me
    It's no good, you're too old and too slow, nobody listens to John O"
    We're gonna have a problem here....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,135
    To further the point, Bernie and Trump have supporters who would walk through fire for them, just as Obama did in '08, they do it for free or sometimes even pay for the privilege. On the other side a pro-Hillary/DNC PAC (Correct the Record) has funded a huge viral online astroturfing campaign because they don't have any kind of real support. No one is willing to go into bat for her like they do for the other two candidates or like they did for Obama.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    edited May 2016
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning all. Let us return for a mo, to the Greek story:

    Why the EU is keeping quiet about Greek debt

    The eurozone should stop pussyfooting around and accept the country will never pay back its creditors
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/why-the-eu-is-keeping-quiet-about-greek-debt-f3s9bw39n

    So let's all Remain in the big European La La Land; the biggest Ponzi Scheme in the world.

    To be fair, Mike, every debt crisis in history is "solved" via the process of "extend and pretend". If you keep pushing back maturities and giving interest holidays, eventually inflation solved the problem.
    But we don't have any inflation. How do you contrive a soft default without it? Print?
    Low inflation and interest rates are horribly stifling to the global economy, and have been for a few years now - ask anyone looking to buy an annuity recently. The best hope for an injection of inflation is probably as the oil price recovers to somewhere more realistic, but that won't be without a lot of pain either. Printing only works if everyone does it, else it just devalues the currency.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    TheSFCEmpire4152 days ago
    Im a Bernie supporter but ill risk a Trump presidency to wake up the DNC and let the know we never wanted her crooked ass from the beginning

    60 likes
    A few Cruz and Bush And Kasich voters will not vote for Trump either, polling shows Hillary still has more Democrats backing her against Trump than Trump has Republicans
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367

    Looking at the Opinon polling for the London Mayor elections in 2008 it looks like the Online polls (ie Yougov) got it right plumping for Bozza by about 44-36 but the Telephone Polls got it wrong showing a draw or Leninspart winning

    Just saying

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2008

    In the last GB wide referendum the phone polls were more accurate than the online polls, and the ICM phone poll was spot on.

    Just saying.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    edited May 2016
    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    MaxPB said:

    To further the point, Bernie and Trump have supporters who would walk through fire for them, just as Obama did in '08, they do it for free or sometimes even pay for the privilege. On the other side a pro-Hillary/DNC PAC (Correct the Record) has funded a huge viral online astroturfing campaign because they don't have any kind of real support. No one is willing to go into bat for her like they do for the other two candidates or like they did for Obama.

    Goldwater and McGovern had supporters who would walk through fire for them, LBJ and Nixon did not, did not stop them both winning!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,160

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was as parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    That's the conservative party
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,160
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fair enough, just so long as no women only clubs are allowed either
    Or all women colleges at Oxbridge
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was as parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    That's the conservative party
    You wish.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fair enough, just so long as no women only clubs are allowed either
    Or all women colleges at Oxbridge
    There are none at Oxford.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,135
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority
    As I said, with Trump people seem comfortable with the idea because he doesn't try and hide it. There's not very much hypocrisy unlike there is with Hillary. Videos like this are 7m at the moment, just wait until Trump begins to share them and his supporters do the same. Again, this isn't some professional outfit paid to make a video, it is just some random dude sitting at home who supports Bernie Sanders making it for free in his own time. Hillary doesn't have anything like that in her camp, it's become so bad that she has had to get one of her PACs to start an astroturfing campaign to make it look like she does.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,026
    OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.


    There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
    Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    TheSFCEmpire4152 days ago
    Im a Bernie supporter but ill risk a Trump presidency to wake up the DNC and let the know we never wanted her crooked ass from the beginning

    60 likes
    Who would have predicted six months ago that the Republicans would have sorted themselves out by May and getting behind the candidate, but the Democrats would still be flinging sh!t at each other at the convention?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,026
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    My default position is always that when I support something it will fail. Over the years it has stood me in very good stead! I never, ever bet on something happening that I want to happen.

    And your record here exemplifies the corollary: everything you don't want to happen, invariably doesn't either. Thus Romney will be President, the Scots will vote to leave the UK, the Tories will win in 2015 (actually you got that one right!).

    And next on the list is your mantra Dave reaping what he says on immigration inexorably leading to Brexit on June 23rd.....

    I do genuinely marvel at the despairing, almost dolorous, tone of resigned certitude of each and every apocalypse. You are pb's little ray of sunshine.
    John

    Are you an OUTER or will you be voting with your demographic?

    You're only as old as you feel. So I'm with the youthful care-free twenty-somethings and voting REMAIN.
    Youre reliving that 1975 moment again.
    Precisely. "You've got to stay in to move on".
    The only place the EU is moving on to is ever closer union.
  • Looking at the Opinon polling for the London Mayor elections in 2008 it looks like the Online polls (ie Yougov) got it right plumping for Bozza by about 44-36 but the Telephone Polls got it wrong showing a draw or Leninspart winning

    Just saying

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2008

    In the last GB wide referendum the phone polls were more accurate than the online polls, and the ICM phone poll was spot on.

    Just saying.
    Result

    FPTP 67.9 AV= 32.1

    Turnout 42.2%

    Last Polls (the ones in May)

    Angus Reid 39/61
    Yougov 40/60
    ICM 32/68
    Comres 34/66

    The online polls seem to have underestimated the No vote. The equivalent here would be the online polls showing a bigger remain victory than phone polls.

    That turnout was dreadful though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    TheSFCEmpire4152 days ago
    Im a Bernie supporter but ill risk a Trump presidency to wake up the DNC and let the know we never wanted her crooked ass from the beginning

    60 likes
    Who would have predicted six months ago that the Republicans would have sorted themselves out by May and getting behind the candidate, but the Democrats would still be flinging sh!t at each other at the convention?
    In an anti establishment world both Sanders and Trump have profited but once Hillary wins the nomination most Democrats will get behind her
  • OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.


    There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
    Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
    If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority
    As I said, with Trump people seem comfortable with the idea because he doesn't try and hide it. There's not very much hypocrisy unlike there is with Hillary. Videos like this are 7m at the moment, just wait until Trump begins to share them and his supporters do the same. Again, this isn't some professional outfit paid to make a video, it is just some random dude sitting at home who supports Bernie Sanders making it for free in his own time. Hillary doesn't have anything like that in her camp, it's become so bad that she has had to get one of her PACs to start an astroturfing campaign to make it look like she does.
    Those who think Hillary is a liar are already voting Trump it makes little difference
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,160

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was as parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    That's the conservative party
    You wish.
    Dave has his work cut out. Party management has always been his weak point.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,026

    OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.


    There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
    Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
    If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
    That depends if you are voting on the next 3 years and 11 months, or the next 40 years.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,503
    Mr. Eagles, did you see the important video I posted below? You might rather like it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,026

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

    If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,729
    edited May 2016
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority
    The point is it amounts to not very much. The headline belies the content. I imagine many of those 7 million thought like I did that it was a rather feeble hatchet job and if that's the best they could do she hasn't much to worry about.

    How many did believe in gay marriage as opposed to civil partnership 12 years ago?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    edited May 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    TheSFCEmpire4152 days ago
    Im a Bernie supporter but ill risk a Trump presidency to wake up the DNC and let the know we never wanted her crooked ass from the beginning

    60 likes
    Who would have predicted six months ago that the Republicans would have sorted themselves out by May and getting behind the candidate, but the Democrats would still be flinging sh!t at each other at the convention?
    In an anti establishment world both Sanders and Trump have profited but once Hillary wins the nomination most Democrats will get behind her
    Disagree. Sanders has engaged a new generation of people who hate politicians and will most probably return to sitting on their arses come Election Day. Some of them will probably be persuaded by anti-politician Trump over politician's politician Hillary - they hate her and everything she stands for.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fair enough, just so long as no women only clubs are allowed either
    Or all women colleges at Oxbridge
    There are none at Oxford.
    Murray Edwards, Newnham and Lucy Cavendish at Cambridge I believe
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,135
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority
    As I said, with Trump people seem comfortable with the idea because he doesn't try and hide it. There's not very much hypocrisy unlike there is with Hillary. Videos like this are 7m at the moment, just wait until Trump begins to share them and his supporters do the same. Again, this isn't some professional outfit paid to make a video, it is just some random dude sitting at home who supports Bernie Sanders making it for free in his own time. Hillary doesn't have anything like that in her camp, it's become so bad that she has had to get one of her PACs to start an astroturfing campaign to make it look like she does.
    Those who think Hillary is a liar are already voting Trump it makes little difference
    No they aren't, they are voting for Sanders. People on the inside of the Democratic Party don't want to see it, but this is what's happening, Hillary is alienating Sanders supporters, I've seen it everywhere on leftist forums, website and blogs. Sanders supports are swearing off Hillary everywhere, even when they are told that they will risk President Trump, they don't change their mind. The reaction is always the same, "well you aren't a real Democrat then and neither is Bernie".
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.


    There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
    Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
    If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
    Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.

    I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367

    Mr. Eagles, did you see the important video I posted below? You might rather like it.

    I did, I hope it is a graphic novel in the vein of Frank Miller's graphic novel of The Battle of Thermoplyae.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    edited May 2016
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority
    As I said, with Trump people seem comfortable with the idea because he doesn't try and hide it. There's not very much hypocrisy unlike there is with sn't have anything like that in her camp, it's become so bad that she has had to get one of her PACs to start an astroturfing campaign to make it look like she does.
    Those who think Hillary is a liar are already voting Trump it makes little difference
    No they aren't, they are voting for Sanders. People on the inside of the Democratic Party don't want to see it, but this is what's happening, Hillary is alienating Sanders supporters, I've seen it everywhere on leftist forums, website and blogs. Sanders supports are swearing off Hillary everywhere, even when they are told that they will risk President Trump, they don't change their mind. The reaction is always the same, "well you aren't a real Democrat then and neither is Bernie".
    Yes and as I have already pointed out umpteen times Hillary has more Democrats behind her in the polls against Trump than Trump has Republicans. The few Sanders supporters who oppose her even when the alternative is Trump probably voted Green or did not vote in 2012 anyway
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    TheSFCEmpire4152 days ago
    Im a Bernie supporter but ill risk a Trump presidency to wake up the DNC and let the know we never wanted her crooked ass from the beginning

    60 likes
    Who would have predicted six months ago that the Republicans would have sorted themselves out by May and getting behind the candidate, but the Democrats would still be flinging sh!t at each other at the convention?
    The way the Nevada convention was conducted was a disgrace, Sanders delegates being barred - clearly divided chair voice motions not being sent to a vote. The thing is there is absolubtely no need for it from Hillary (And it is Hillary supporters/delegates) as they are so far ahead. But yet they've done it anyway.

    Many Hillary delegates at the caucus stage (NV is complicated on the DEM side !) didn't even bother to show up !!

    There has been some amazingly bias reporting of what went down in Nevada from CNN in particular, which could well lead to a Philly backlash. (Oh what a place to have a backlash in one of the most important states of the whole GE).

    Meanwhile I think Trump will get a total coronation, with a minimum of fuss at the GOP convention. He will not need any unbound or super delegates either unlike Hillary ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was as parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    That's the conservative party
    You wish.
    Dave has his work cut out. Party management has always been his weak point.
    A minor flaw compared to his many attributes
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,503
    Mr. Eagles, not sure, but if they're condensing the whole Second Punic War into 148 pages it'll be festooned with drama.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

    If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
    No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130

    OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.


    There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
    Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
    If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
    Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.

    I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
    That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,526
    Pulpstar said:

    Meanwhile I think Trump will get a total coronation, with a minimum of fuss at the GOP convention. He will not need any unbound or super delegates either unlike Hillary ;)

    Yes and any malcontents who are left in the GOP actually help Trump with his positioning for the general election. Hillary doesn't benefit from the same dynamic.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,160

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was as parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    That's the conservative party
    You wish.
    Dave has his work cut out. Party management has always been his weak point.
    A minor flaw compared to his many attributes
    He'll be gone in three years leaving a mess behind him.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,135
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/video-shows-hillary-clinton-lying-for-13-minutes/

    This is the kind of stuff that's going to hurt Hillary. She is an untrustworthy person who will say and do anything to get to the Oval office, as more people find out about it her support will dwindle. Trump is the same, don't get me wrong, but people already know that about him and seem pretty comfortable with the idea, I guess because he's not a hypocrite about it like Hillary.

    By the end of the campaign it will be hardcore feminist groups and minorities left standing in her corner and a few mainstream Democrats. This video got 7m views out of nothing, now it is getting mainstream coverage so I expect that 7m will triple or quadruple before the end of the campaign. It's a video by some random dude, not anyone related to the Trump campaign, how bad is it going to be once Trump sinks his teeth into her and starts sharing these videos and all of his supporters start sharing them to family and friends.

    Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority
    As I said, with Trump people seem comfortable with the idea because he doesn't try and hide it. There's not very much hypocrisy unlike there is with sn't have anything like that in her camp, it's become so bad that she has had to get one of her PACs to start an astroturfing campaign to make it look like she does.
    Those who think Hillary is a liar are already voting Trump it makes little difference
    No they aren't, they are voting for Sanders. People on the inside of the Democratic Party don't want to see it, but this is what's happening, Hillary is alienating Sanders supporters, I've seen it everywhere on leftist forums, website and blogs. Sanders supports are swearing off Hillary everywhere, even when they are told that they will risk President Trump, they don't change their mind. The reaction is always the same, "well you aren't a real Democrat then and neither is Bernie".
    Yes and as I have already pointed out umpteen times Hillary has more Democrats behind her in the polls against Trump than Trump has Republicans. The few Sanders supporters who oppose her even when the alternative is Trump probably voted Green or did not vote in 2012 anyway
    And yet she is losing ground to Trump in the polls.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,160

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

    If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
    No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
    LOL Remain haven't actually advanced any arguments.

    War ! Famine ! Plague ! Pestilence !
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,160
    If that's the final result, it's closer than I thought it would be.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JackW said:

    Alistair said:

    I like how Rasmussen don't release demographic information for their polls.

    It's available to their "Platinum" subscribers if you feel like having a good chortle for a few dollars more .... full of the good, the bad and the ugly side of US polling.

    Now we know how the rich live! :)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,607
    Now, to be fair, he also states "The bad news is that it could still go wrong for him (David Cameron), especially if some kind of crisis erupts in the next five weeks."

    Wouldn't want to think the likes of you and John Rentoul were frantically spinning something to suit the REMAIN position.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    edited May 2016

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

    If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
    No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
    LOL Remain haven't actually advanced any arguments.

    War ! Famine ! Plague ! Pestilence !
    The argument is that we're Better Together part of a Union that has free trade at the heart of it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,026

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

    If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
    No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
    Wrong.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    Good morning all. Let us return for a mo, to the Greek story:

    Why the EU is keeping quiet about Greek debt

    The eurozone should stop pussyfooting around and accept the country will never pay back its creditors
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/why-the-eu-is-keeping-quiet-about-greek-debt-f3s9bw39n

    So let's all Remain in the big European La La Land; the biggest Ponzi Scheme in the world.

    To be fair, Mike, every debt crisis in history is "solved" via the process of "extend and pretend". If you keep pushing back maturities and giving interest holidays, eventually inflation solved the problem.
    But we don't have any inflation. How do you contrive a soft default without it? Print?
    Low inflation and interest rates are horribly stifling to the global economy, and have been for a few years now - ask anyone looking to buy an annuity recently. The best hope for an injection of inflation is probably as the oil price recovers to somewhere more realistic, but that won't be without a lot of pain either. Printing only works if everyone does it, else it just devalues the currency.
    But it can also write off debt. If Greece were allowed to print another 100bn euros their debts would become a lot more manageable. Of course the credibility of the Euro as a currency would take a dunt in a way that Germany would not accept but it is one possibility.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    edited May 2016
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:
    Supposedly shows Hillary switching position, Trump certainly has never changed position on abortion or healthcare or gay marriage to woo the GOP base, oh no. Hillary has plenty of ammunition herself. 7 million views out of a populationof 350 million is also not as large as it seems. Women plus minorities gives Hillary a majority
    As I said, with Trump people seem comfortable with the idea because he doesn't try and hide it. There's not very much hypocrisy unlike there is with sn't have anything like that in her camp, it's become so bad that she has had to get one of her PACs to start an astroturfing campaign to make it look like she does.
    Those who think Hillary is a liar are already voting Trump it makes little difference
    No they aren't, they are voting for Sanders. People on the inside of the Democratic Party don't want to see it, but this is what's happening, Hillary is alienating Sanders supporters, I've seen it everywhere on leftist forums, website and blogs. Sanders supports are swearing off Hillary everywhere, even when they are told that they will risk President Trump, they don't change their mind. The reaction is always the same, "well you aren't a real Democrat then and neither is Bernie".
    Yes and as I have already pointed out umpteen times Hillary has more Democrats behind her in the polls against Trump than Trump has Republicans. The few Sanders supporters who oppose her even when the alternative is Trump probably voted Green or did not vote in 2012 anyway
    The Rebublican Establishment is hungry for power after 8 years of Obama, and have been further emboldened by the Supreme Court vacancy that threatens to impose a liberal majority for decades.

    They will give everything they have and more to getting their candidate into the White House, even if they're not huge Trump fans and would have preferred Bush/Kaisich/Cruz to have been the nominee.

    Rebublicans also hate the Clintons with a passion, will be a nasty nasty campaign on both sides. What is it they say about having a rolling-in-sh!t contest with a pig? You both end up covered in sh!t, but the pig enjoys the experience and points at your smelly body at the end! Trump is that pig.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,026

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

    If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
    No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
    LOL Remain haven't actually advanced any arguments.

    War ! Famine ! Plague ! Pestilence !
    Exactly. How you win and why you win is as important as whether you win and by how much.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,503
    Eight points would be enough to win victory, but not secure peace in the Conservative Party.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,160

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

    If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
    No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
    LOL Remain haven't actually advanced any arguments.

    War ! Famine ! Plague ! Pestilence !
    The argument is that we're Better Together part of a Union has free trade at the heart of it.
    We don;t.

    The trade in services is still restricted. We only have free trade in manufactured goods, which is largely to Germany's advantage given an undervalued currency.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,026
    Remind me: how did he do in the General Election?

    I stand by what I said: if it looks like Remain will win clearly, a good number of people will vote Leave to ensure it doesn't.

    The UK public want as narrow a Remain victory as possible, IMHO, and will try and get it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,026

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

    If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
    No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
    LOL Remain haven't actually advanced any arguments.

    War ! Famine ! Plague ! Pestilence !
    The argument is that we're Better Together part of a Union that has free trade at the heart of it.
    Lol. It has political, economic and social union at the heart of it, not free trade.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,160

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

    If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
    No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
    LOL Remain haven't actually advanced any arguments.

    War ! Famine ! Plague ! Pestilence !
    Exactly. How you win and why you win is as important as whether you win and by how much.
    Yes, he will simply deepen the splits not heal them.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Sandpit said:

    OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting intervention by the very political (for a coomentator) Paul Mason on Question Time last night. He's a strong Brexiteer who says he will very possibly vote Remain because he would prefer to be in an anti democratic EU than face the likelihood of Johnson or Gove or any of the leaders of LEAVE becoming Prime Minister.


    There was a similar opinion piece in the Guardian a few days ago essentially saying that there are problems with the EU but now is not the time to vote to exit and hand a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove.
    Translation: we can't think of any positive reasons to vote for the EU, but here are some people you don't like that think the opposite.
    If you are voting that way I suppose it depends whether the prospect of handing a political victory to UKIP, IDS & Gove is worse than handing one to Cameron and Osborne. Looks like a recipe for absention to me.
    Not necessarily - fear of the alternative is a powerful driver of voting behaviour. The 2015 election is a case in point.

    I have been pleasantly surprised by the level of commitment Labour has been putting into the Remain campaign - both financial and practical - and I think there will be a general-election level turnout from Labour supporters - perhaps more if the result looks close.
    That backs up what Nick Palmer said the other day about Labour's campaign being in full swing. Good to see them making an effort, a low turnout would be a shame for an important vote.
    A low turnout and a close result would be likely to cause huge uncertainty and a prolonged political crisis - if the turnout were 50% and the result was 51-49 for either side (meaning the winner would have secured only 30% of the electorate) the losing side would immediately cry foul and there would be demands for inquiries, reruns, resignations of all and sundry etc etc. I can't see Cameron surviving in those circumstances, and it's hard to see a parliament in which at least 75% of MPs support Remain agreeing to pass the legislation required to leave on such a weak mandate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

    If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
    No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
    On to more important things. Are you at the test and is it still raining? I was depressed to see trainline was telling me to take my brolly to Leeds this morning.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367

    Remind me: how did he do in the General Election?

    I stand by what I said: if it looks like Remain will win clearly, a good number of people will vote Leave to ensure it doesn't.

    The UK public want as narrow a Remain victory as possible, IMHO, and will try and get it.
    He went against his own polls and said the Tories were on course to be the largest party.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sandpit said:

    dr_spyn said:

    merger of bookmakers being looked at.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36339782

    That's not going to happen. They're desperate to open more shops and there's no way they'll want to close them to get the merger through. All about the machines.
    They're not going to close them, they're going to sell them. And this was always understood to be part of the price of the deal.
  • Scots vote tactically in EU Referendum, in Machiavellian Plan to become Independent exploit $45 a barrel Oil ...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367
    edited May 2016
    DavidL said:

    On topic Betfair think this is all over.

    If Leave was a parrot, it would be an ex parrot.

    So they do, but there are still five weeks left.

    If Leave may not be able to win this referendum but they can win the argument.
    No, you win the referendum by winning the arguments.
    On to more important things. Are you at the test and is it still raining? I was depressed to see trainline was telling me to take my brolly to Leeds this morning.
    Is fine at the moment, but I've packed my kagool for the afternoon.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,160

    Remind me: how did he do in the General Election?

    I stand by what I said: if it looks like Remain will win clearly, a good number of people will vote Leave to ensure it doesn't.

    The UK public want as narrow a Remain victory as possible, IMHO, and will try and get it.
    He went against his own polls and said the Tories were on course to be the largest party.
    Doesn't that just mean his own polls were wrong to start with.

    Most people were predicting conservatives largest party but not an overall majority.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,503
    Good news, the electorate won't be extended:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36341839

    Those overseas for more than 15 years, as per usual, won't be able to vote.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fair enough, just so long as no women only clubs are allowed either
    Or all women colleges at Oxbridge
    There are none at Oxford.
    Yes, sadly the days of St Hilda's being known as the Virgin Megastore are over.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,026

    Remind me: how did he do in the General Election?

    I stand by what I said: if it looks like Remain will win clearly, a good number of people will vote Leave to ensure it doesn't.

    The UK public want as narrow a Remain victory as possible, IMHO, and will try and get it.
    He went against his own polls and said the Tories were on course to be the largest party.
    His final prediction was way off.

    Peter Kellner is a staunch Remain supporter.

    "I believe that the telephone polls are nearer the truth.", "so far, telephone polls seem to generate more accurate results"

    This is confirmation bias.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @thetimes: #Brexit campaigners have reported Ryanair's latest advert for breaking the 2010 Bribery Act https://t.co/VB6kiiw17l https://t.co/3wL9dXiu1i
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