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Synching them with LEs made a big difference.TheWhiteRabbit said:A substantial increase in PCC turnout, even if from dismal to very poor...
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@bbclaurak: John Curtice pretty much calls London for Sadiq Khan, then Ken Livingstone starts talking about Hitler0
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Four letters describe Livingstone.Wulfrun_Phil said:Livingstone from BBC News
"Former London Mayor Ken Livingstone comments on the anti-Semitism row that engulfed Labour. He claims others in Labour made an issue of it and tells these critics: "You've cost us seats all over the country."
They wouldn't have had the chance to fan the flames unless Livingstone had poured a great big can of petrol over an ember that seemed set to go out. He now accepts that the row cost Labour seats, yes is oblivious to his own role. The man is an utter liability to the party he purports to support.0 -
Does anyone know how the BBC actually arrives at their ENS calculation?
It deserves a bit of scrutiny - for one thing it seems to have pre-dated the counting of the London Assembly votes. Will they revise it or is that it?0 -
After lunch is being generous.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, Ken after lunch is very dangerous.FrancisUrquhart said:
That comment very close to the bone....Scott_P said:@GerriPeev: Handing Ken Livingstone a mic is like giving an alcoholic a bottle of Jack Daniel's.They can't help themselves & it's not good for the kids
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No. His chauffer couldn't find Richmond Underground Station. I suppose he could have used the 65 bus, then he would have to find his local bus stop.FrancisUrquhart said:
Reason he couldn't make the leap out of Richmond...he got confused by the tube ;-)Richard_Nabavi said:
Khan ran a very good campaign and was a good choice for Labour, albeit a bit dull. But Zac was even more dull, so that didn't matter.NickPalmer said:Yes, I agree - there were plenty of pitfalls and he avoided them all with a careful, positive and disciplined effort. I thought his comment of regret that Goldsmith, who he knew as a liberal cosmopolitan, had allowed his campaign to slip into anti-Muslim stereotyping was far better than if he'd denounced Goldsmith personally. It pretty much defused the issue.
It's a lesson for Crosby and his mates - you can't win an election *only* by shouting "Islamist!" "friends with extremists!" and the like.
The 'friends with extremists' line never really caught on. Personally I was never convinced by it, the well-argued posts by Ms Cyclefree notwithstanding. I'm much more concerned about Sadiq's daft policies on housing and transport fares, but if Londoners want to vote for less housing and worse transport, who am I to complain?
As @anothernick and @FrancisUrquhart pointed out, Zac managed to be on the wrong side of some crucial issues. I'm surprised his campaign wasn't better; he never really made the leap from what works in Richmond to what would work in London as a whole.0 -
N. E. W. T?dr_spyn said:
Four letters describe Livingstone.Wulfrun_Phil said:Livingstone from BBC News
"Former London Mayor Ken Livingstone comments on the anti-Semitism row that engulfed Labour. He claims others in Labour made an issue of it and tells these critics: "You've cost us seats all over the country."
They wouldn't have had the chance to fan the flames unless Livingstone had poured a great big can of petrol over an ember that seemed set to go out. He now accepts that the row cost Labour seats, yes is oblivious to his own role. The man is an utter liability to the party he purports to support.0 -
So is your analysis too much F R E E D O M, or not enough?Theuniondivvie said:
*brilliant*Scott_P said:@Labour_Celts: Brilliant analysis by @johnmcternan
on SNP & a 2nd referendum they ain't interested in having!
https://t.co/fdRf8mROb6
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/4419596527426641920 -
They look at key indicator wards & curtice has a model to extrapolate from them. Thrasher has a different model & so you sometimes see a slightly different numbers on sky.Wulfrun_Phil said:Does anyone know how the BBC actually arrives at their ENS calculation?
It deserves a bit of scrutiny - for one thing it seems to have pre-dated the counting of the London Assembly votes. Will they revise it or is that it?0 -
I don't think the ENS is ever calculated from the assembly election.Wulfrun_Phil said:Does anyone know how the BBC actually arrives at their ENS calculation?
It deserves a bit of scrutiny - for one thing it seems to have pre-dated the counting of the London Assembly votes. Will they revise it or is that it?0 -
NEV opposition lead= -1. An identical start for Labour in England compared to Miliband 2011. Weaker in Wales (More so than the headline seat changes, and obviously weaker in Scotland.
Big picture is Labour heading to about the same defeat they were last time at this point0 -
Isn't that simply because UKIP got a reasonable number of votes this time, having completely screwed up last time? I'd expect a substantial first-pref swing away from the Conservatives purely on that effect.dr_spyn said:Swing against Goldsmith in Bexley?
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Lets hope a post referendum reshuffle sees GO getting air miles and Gove to CoTE.
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Where do they get 7% from? - it's 3.3ish% (if they are talking about the constituency vote)dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/728594099113168897
Swing against Goldsmith in Bexley?0 -
I want to see the South West results. My vote may have done it.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/728594099113168897
Swing against Goldsmith in Bexley?0 -
Could Corbyn's "Labour hung on" comment be his "we're all right"?0
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That depends what he means by 'fired up' (well not just on that, but particularly that). His other comments make clear he thinks there is no reason for people to be angry and it is all made up anger, and he is wrong about that. If he meant that other people are trying to make the most out of it, make it as angry and emotional as possible, that is true, but he is still the sole instigator. So yes, he is wrong.surbiton said:
Is he wrong ?Scott_P said:@katie_martin_fx: Ken says the Hitler controversy is fired up by Labour people "backed by the hedge funds".
Really doesn't look that bad a set of results for anyone.surbiton said:Labour losses 25, Tory losses 20. Lib Dem gains 29. UKIP 24.
Yes, the local elections helped on that front, Too bad the role is a nonsense even so.RobD said:
Turnout up across the board:surbiton said:
People will never vote for these Politically Correct Commissioners.TheWhiteRabbit said:Is there a place to follow just PCCs that gives you hold/gains?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/police0 -
To be precise, Labour had its best-ever result in London Assembly elections in 2012, but appears to have improved on it further this year, with a good shot at an absolute majority in the Assembly. It's plausible to ascribe this trend to cultural change, with London becoming gradually more like the Guardian, so to speak, while people who can't stand such stuff moving away to other areas.SouthamObserver said:
London won the GLA vote in 2012, having lost it in 2008. The mayoral vote was Boris v Ken and having seen Ken in action over recent weeks perhaps a few more people will begin to understand why a lot of Labour voters could not put their X's next to Ken's name.RobD said:
London has improved for Labour since 2012. The results in 2015 show that.surbiton said:
This does lead to one question. If Labour is doing just as well / just as badly as in 2012, why is Khan winning so easily when Livingstone lost ?RobD said:
Good result for Khan though, as the numbers currently stand.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think meh sums up results for everybody.SouthamObserver said:Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?
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IIRC Patrick Kidd in the Times has a great sketch today saying something like "Jeremy doesn't like politics, he's never done it before"FrancisUrquhart said:
My comment about corbyn 2020 GE campaign only talking to the BBC (if they promise to be nice) & press tv the other day looking like it will be spot on. He already doesn't do sky news, telegraph, Daily mailPlato_Says said:0 -
He does not have a contract like Premiership managers.FrancisUrquhart said:
My comment about corbyn 2020 GE campaign only talking to the BBC (if they promise to be nice) & press tv the other day looking like it will be spot on. He already doesn't do sky news, telegraph, Daily mailPlato_Says said:0 -
Begley and Bromley mayoral figures
Zac 97528
Sadiq 48212
https://londonelects.org.uk/sites/default/files/Bexley and Bromley - Mayor 2016.pdf0 -
Over in Northern Ireland, both Sinn Fein and SDLP are losing 2-3% of the vote, and the DUP are down 2%. The gainers are minor Unionist parties, Greens, and People Before Profit.0 -
Thanks. Are the London mayoral election results available at ward level then before being aggregated? Because if not Curtice can't have used any results from London as his base data before extrapolating.FrancisUrquhart said:
They look at key indicator wards & curtice has a model to extrapolate from them. Thrasher has a different model & so you sometimes see a slightly different numbers on sky.Wulfrun_Phil said:Does anyone know how the BBC actually arrives at their ENS calculation?
It deserves a bit of scrutiny - for one thing it seems to have pre-dated the counting of the London Assembly votes. Will they revise it or is that it?0 -
2012 B&B mayoral figures were on Round 1
Boris 104944 Ken 375200 -
I believe the ENS is only calculated from local election data, not any other parliament/assembly/mayoral position.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Thanks. Are the London mayoral election results available at ward level then before being aggregated? Because if not Curtice can't have used any results from London as his base data before extrapolating.FrancisUrquhart said:
They look at key indicator wards & curtice has a model to extrapolate from them. Thrasher has a different model & so you sometimes see a slightly different numbers on sky.Wulfrun_Phil said:Does anyone know how the BBC actually arrives at their ENS calculation?
It deserves a bit of scrutiny - for one thing it seems to have pre-dated the counting of the London Assembly votes. Will they revise it or is that it?0 -
Let us not go down this route again.surbiton said:
Is he wrong ?Scott_P said:@katie_martin_fx: Ken says the Hitler controversy is fired up by Labour people "backed by the hedge funds".
Talking about Hitler is foolish, bad for business and, increasingly, makes Ken look like he has lost even more of the political plot than he did in the 80s, 90s and 00s combined.
Whether he is right or wrong about who is gunning for him is matter of a opinion, saying the stupid things he said has no place in political discourse.0 -
It was Ken F****** Livingstone, for heaven's sake. One of the few politicians both my father and I have campaigned against, thirty (ish) years apart!AndreaParma_82 said:2012 B&B mayoral figures were on Round 1
Boris 104944 Ken 375200 -
The other impressive part about the Tory gains in Scotland is that after the GE last year everyone was being assured that a majority Con government would lead to independence within 5 years. I think we've got to move on from the idea that the Tory brand is toxic in all of Scotland now. I think it is still toxic in some parts and among the more right on social media parts, but overall I don't think the public at large see the Tory brand as toxic any more, another of Ruth's achievements.
The SNP's immediate reaction to the Tories being the main opposition party might be to scream "tory scum" as loudly as possible but like Labour in 2015 it probably won't get much traction as people want to hear sensible arguments rather than reactionary rhetoric.0 -
Premier league managers only need to vote of the chairman...jezza needs 10+ million.surbiton said:
He does not have a contract like Premiership managers.FrancisUrquhart said:
My comment about corbyn 2020 GE campaign only talking to the BBC (if they promise to be nice) & press tv the other day looking like it will be spot on. He already doesn't do sky news, telegraph, Daily mailPlato_Says said:0 -
Labour gains Merton & Wandsworth from Tories say Sky0
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Labour gain Merton and Wandsworth GLA seat from Con0
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Con hold West Central0
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It's a sad day for democracy when people turn their backs on mindless tribalismSean_F said:
Over in Northern Ireland, both Sinn Fein and SDLP are losing 2-3% of the vote, and the DUP are down 2%. The gainers are minor Unionist parties, Greens, and People Before Profit.0 -
Don't misunderestimate Osborne who might come out of this U-turn on academy schools smelling of roses.AlastairMeeks said:
Oh I completely agree. Sometimes the would-be divas are right.FrancisUrquhart said:
On schools though it was a bloody stupid idea, with no real upside.AlastairMeeks said:Constant u-turns is an inevitable feature of a government with a majority of 12 and a glittering array of would-be divas on its backbenches.
Regression to the mean is Osborne's friend here. Even if turning schools into academies has no effect whatsoever -- good or bad -- then normal fluctuations would see some bad schools get better and some good schools get worse.
But the partial U-turn means the good schools which get worse by chance won't be academies, which "proves" Osborne was right in the first place, and the bad schools that by chance get better will be academies which also proves the government was right.
Pure snake oil.0 -
Durham (no locals): 17.4% (+3.0). My 'tip' for lowest turnout looking good.Plato_Says said:
Synching them with LEs made a big difference.TheWhiteRabbit said:A substantial increase in PCC turnout, even if from dismal to very poor...
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Salford mayor - Round 2
Paul Dennett Labour 24,209+ 4,123
Robin Garrido Conservative 11,810+2,674
Dennett is a Corbynista.
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Plus we'd get to bulldoze the whole of Luton and pretend it never existed. It's a real win/win scenario.SeanT said:
I'm sitting in a sunny square in Nyons, Provence. I got here by Luton Airport.Sunil_Prasannan said:
http://www.gatwickobviously.com/FrancisUrquhart said:
Anti-Eu, anti-heathrow, less than pro uber, wrong side of all those arguments for London.anothernick said:
Agreed.SouthamObserver said:
It may also be the case that the Goldsmith vote energised dormant anti-Tory voters who were reminded of why they do not like the party. It sort of happened in Oldham East too to an extent: the UKIP campaign actually got Labour voters to come out and vote.anothernick said:
Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.NickPalmer said:Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.
Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.
Coming out for Leave was another Goldsmith blunder - London leans heavily to Remain and going for Leave lost him any chance of vocal support from business or the City.
The main London airport should be Luton. 20 minutes from St Pancras (and the Eurostar). Near the M25 and the M1. On the right side of Londom for the rest of the country. Surrounded by poor Labour-voting, Khan-supporting immigrants who won't complain about noise, and would welcome the extra work. It ticks every box and avoids every pitfall.
Why can't it be Luton??0 -
Yes, it seems strange that Luton wasn't in the running.SeanT said:I'm sitting in a sunny square in Nyons, Provence. I got here by Luton Airport.
The main London airport should be Luton. 20 minutes from St Pancras (and the Eurostar). Near the M25 and the M1. On the right side of Londom for the rest of the country. Surrounded by poor Labour-voting, Khan-supporting immigrants who won't complain about noise, and would welcome the extra work. It ticks every box and avoids every pitfall.
Why can't it be Luton??
Enjoy your olives de Nyons, appelation contrôlée. They really are very good.0 -
Merton & W
Leonie Cooper (Lab) 77,340 (41.71%, +5.17%)
David Dean (C) 73,039 (39.39%, -3.75%)
Esther Obiri-Darko (Green) 14,682 (7.92%, +0.44%)
Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett (LD) 10,732 (5.79%, -2.09%)
Elizabeth Jones (UKIP) 8,478 (4.57%, +2.11%)
Thamilini Kulendran (Ind) 1,142 (0.62%, -0.99%)
Lab maj 4,301 (2.32%)0 -
Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?0
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Khan doesn't get his support from immigrants - he's got good support right across the board.SeanT said:
I'm sitting in a sunny square in Nyons, Provence. I got here by Luton Airport.Sunil_Prasannan said:
http://www.gatwickobviously.com/FrancisUrquhart said:
Anti-Eu, anti-heathrow, less than pro uber, wrong side of all those arguments for London.anothernick said:
Agreed.SouthamObserver said:
It may also be the case that the Goldsmith vote energised dormant anti-Tory voters who were reminded of why they do not like the party. It sort of happened in Oldham East too to an extent: the UKIP campaign actually got Labour voters to come out and vote.anothernick said:
Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.NickPalmer said:Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.
Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.
Coming out for Leave was another Goldsmith blunder - London leans heavily to Remain and going for Leave lost him any chance of vocal support from business or the City.
The main London airport should be Luton. 20 minutes from St Pancras (and the Eurostar). Near the M25 and the M1. On the right side of Londom for the rest of the country. Surrounded by poor Labour-voting, Khan-supporting immigrants who won't complain about noise, and would welcome the extra work. It ticks every box and avoids every pitfall.
Why can't it be Luton??
London is trending Labour, year-on-year. 50% by GE 2020 is possible. I'm sure you're proud of that fact being a Londoner?0 -
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.0 -
Lab hold Lambeth & Southwark. Boring0
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Yay!AndreaParma_82 said:Merton & W
Leonie Cooper (Lab) 77,340 (41.71%, +5.17%)
David Dean (C) 73,039 (39.39%, -3.75%)
Esther Obiri-Darko (Green) 14,682 (7.92%, +0.44%)
Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett (LD) 10,732 (5.79%, -2.09%)
Elizabeth Jones (UKIP) 8,478 (4.57%, +2.11%)
Thamilini Kulendran (Ind) 1,142 (0.62%, -0.99%)
Lab maj 4,301 (2.32%)
Cracking result for Labour - my vote did count after all!0 -
Agreed. He would have got the leave voters' second preferences anyway if he had been a reluctant remainer.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.0 -
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.0 -
That means it totally ignores anything happening in London.RobD said:
I believe the ENS is only calculated from local election data, not any other parliament/assembly/mayoral position.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Thanks. Are the London mayoral election results available at ward level then before being aggregated? Because if not Curtice can't have used any results from London as his base data before extrapolating.FrancisUrquhart said:
They look at key indicator wards & curtice has a model to extrapolate from them. Thrasher has a different model & so you sometimes see a slightly different numbers on sky.Wulfrun_Phil said:Does anyone know how the BBC actually arrives at their ENS calculation?
It deserves a bit of scrutiny - for one thing it seems to have pre-dated the counting of the London Assembly votes. Will they revise it or is that it?0 -
"As I said during the election campaign, the SNP manifesto does not give Nicola Sturgeon a mandate for a second independence referendum.
http://stv.tv/news/politics/1353178-ruth-davidson-snp-has-no-mandate-for-second-referendum/
"Now that she has failed to win a majority, whatever claims the SNP were pursuing with regard to constitutional brinkmanship over the next five years have now been utterly shredded.
"No mandate, no majority, no cause - the SNP must now let Scotland move on.0 -
pah, just a poncy way of saying pork scratchings.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, it seems strange that Luton wasn't in the running.SeanT said:I'm sitting in a sunny square in Nyons, Provence. I got here by Luton Airport.
The main London airport should be Luton. 20 minutes from St Pancras (and the Eurostar). Near the M25 and the M1. On the right side of Londom for the rest of the country. Surrounded by poor Labour-voting, Khan-supporting immigrants who won't complain about noise, and would welcome the extra work. It ticks every box and avoids every pitfall.
Why can't it be Luton??
Enjoy your olives de Nyons, appelation contrôlée. They really are very good.0 -
Hmmm.... www.lutonobviously.comSeanT said:
I'm sitting in a sunny square in Nyons, Provence. I got here by Luton Airport.Sunil_Prasannan said:
http://www.gatwickobviously.com/FrancisUrquhart said:
Anti-Eu, anti-heathrow, less than pro uber, wrong side of all those arguments for London.anothernick said:
Agreed.SouthamObserver said:
It may also be the case that the Goldsmith vote energised dormant anti-Tory voters who were reminded of why they do not like the party. It sort of happened in Oldham East too to an extent: the UKIP campaign actually got Labour voters to come out and vote.anothernick said:
Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.NickPalmer said:Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.
Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.
Coming out for Leave was another Goldsmith blunder - London leans heavily to Remain and going for Leave lost him any chance of vocal support from business or the City.
The main London airport should be Luton. 20 minutes from St Pancras (and the Eurostar). Near the M25 and the M1. On the right side of Londom for the rest of the country. Surrounded by poor Labour-voting, Khan-supporting immigrants who won't complain about noise, and would welcome the extra work. It ticks every box and avoids every pitfall.
Why can't it be Luton??0 -
Pure snobbery? Remember those Campari ads from the 1970s starring (if that is the right word in this context) Lorraine Chase?SeanT said:
I'm sitting in a sunny square in Nyons, Provence. I got here by Luton Airport.Sunil_Prasannan said:
http://www.gatwickobviously.com/FrancisUrquhart said:
Anti-Eu, anti-heathrow, less than pro uber, wrong side of all those arguments for London.anothernick said:
Agreed.SouthamObserver said:
It may also be the case that the Goldsmith vote energised dormant anti-Tory voters who were reminded of why they do not like the party. It sort of happened in Oldham East too to an extent: the UKIP campaign actually got Labour voters to come out and vote.anothernick said:
Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.NickPalmer said:Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.
Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.
Coming out for Leave was another Goldsmith blunder - London leans heavily to Remain and going for Leave lost him any chance of vocal support from business or the City.
The main London airport should be Luton. 20 minutes from St Pancras (and the Eurostar). Near the M25 and the M1. On the right side of Londom for the rest of the country. Surrounded by poor Labour-voting, Khan-supporting immigrants who won't complain about noise, and would welcome the extra work. It ticks every box and avoids every pitfall.
Why can't it be Luton??0 -
No, that's grattons de LyonsAlanbrooke said:
pah, just a poncy way of saying pork scratchings.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, it seems strange that Luton wasn't in the running.SeanT said:I'm sitting in a sunny square in Nyons, Provence. I got here by Luton Airport.
The main London airport should be Luton. 20 minutes from St Pancras (and the Eurostar). Near the M25 and the M1. On the right side of Londom for the rest of the country. Surrounded by poor Labour-voting, Khan-supporting immigrants who won't complain about noise, and would welcome the extra work. It ticks every box and avoids every pitfall.
Why can't it be Luton??
Enjoy your olives de Nyons, appelation contrôlée. They really are very good.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grattons#/media/File:Grattons_lyonnais.jpg
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What is the Government for, Mummy?DecrepitJohnL said:
Don't misunderestimate Osborne who might come out of this U-turn on academy schools smelling of roses.AlastairMeeks said:
Oh I completely agree. Sometimes the would-be divas are right.FrancisUrquhart said:
On schools though it was a bloody stupid idea, with no real upside.AlastairMeeks said:Constant u-turns is an inevitable feature of a government with a majority of 12 and a glittering array of would-be divas on its backbenches.
Regression to the mean is Osborne's friend here. Even if turning schools into academies has no effect whatsoever -- good or bad -- then normal fluctuations would see some bad schools get better and some good schools get worse.
But the partial U-turn means the good schools which get worse by chance won't be academies, which "proves" Osborne was right in the first place, and the bad schools that by chance get better will be academies which also proves the government was right.
Pure snake oil.0 -
It does three years in four, since the London boroughs have all-out elections every fourth year.Wulfrun_Phil said:
That means it totally ignores anything happening in London.RobD said:
I believe the ENS is only calculated from local election data, not any other parliament/assembly/mayoral position.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Thanks. Are the London mayoral election results available at ward level then before being aggregated? Because if not Curtice can't have used any results from London as his base data before extrapolating.FrancisUrquhart said:
They look at key indicator wards & curtice has a model to extrapolate from them. Thrasher has a different model & so you sometimes see a slightly different numbers on sky.Wulfrun_Phil said:Does anyone know how the BBC actually arrives at their ENS calculation?
It deserves a bit of scrutiny - for one thing it seems to have pre-dated the counting of the London Assembly votes. Will they revise it or is that it?0 -
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.0 -
Probably because it's actually above ground, serving the main line railway as well?surbiton said:
No. His chauffer couldn't find Richmond Underground Station. I suppose he could have used the 65 bus, then he would have to find his local bus stop.FrancisUrquhart said:
Reason he couldn't make the leap out of Richmond...he got confused by the tube ;-)Richard_Nabavi said:
Khan ran a very good campaign and was a good choice for Labour, albeit a bit dull. But Zac was even more dull, so that didn't matter.NickPalmer said:Yes, I agree - there were plenty of pitfalls and he avoided them all with a careful, positive and disciplined effort. I thought his comment of regret that Goldsmith, who he knew as a liberal cosmopolitan, had allowed his campaign to slip into anti-Muslim stereotyping was far better than if he'd denounced Goldsmith personally. It pretty much defused the issue.
It's a lesson for Crosby and his mates - you can't win an election *only* by shouting "Islamist!" "friends with extremists!" and the like.
The 'friends with extremists' line never really caught on. Personally I was never convinced by it, the well-argued posts by Ms Cyclefree notwithstanding. I'm much more concerned about Sadiq's daft policies on housing and transport fares, but if Londoners want to vote for less housing and worse transport, who am I to complain?
As @anothernick and @FrancisUrquhart pointed out, Zac managed to be on the wrong side of some crucial issues. I'm surprised his campaign wasn't better; he never really made the leap from what works in Richmond to what would work in London as a whole.0 -
LOLRichard_Nabavi said:
No, that's grattons de LyonsAlanbrooke said:
pah, just a poncy way of saying pork scratchings.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, it seems strange that Luton wasn't in the running.SeanT said:I'm sitting in a sunny square in Nyons, Provence. I got here by Luton Airport.
The main London airport should be Luton. 20 minutes from St Pancras (and the Eurostar). Near the M25 and the M1. On the right side of Londom for the rest of the country. Surrounded by poor Labour-voting, Khan-supporting immigrants who won't complain about noise, and would welcome the extra work. It ticks every box and avoids every pitfall.
Why can't it be Luton??
Enjoy your olives de Nyons, appelation contrôlée. They really are very good.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grattons#/media/File:Grattons_lyonnais.jpg
it's odd Richard, I could see you waxing lyrical about grattons de Lyons, pork scratchings not so much :-)0 -
And having a prominent Remainer as Mayor will certainly boost the already strong Remain vote in London and perhaps elsewhere - Khan will bring out voters who would otherwise have stayed at home.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.0 -
Yes, but that's how it's calculated.Wulfrun_Phil said:
That means it totally ignores anything happening in London.RobD said:
I believe the ENS is only calculated from local election data, not any other parliament/assembly/mayoral position.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Thanks. Are the London mayoral election results available at ward level then before being aggregated? Because if not Curtice can't have used any results from London as his base data before extrapolating.FrancisUrquhart said:
They look at key indicator wards & curtice has a model to extrapolate from them. Thrasher has a different model & so you sometimes see a slightly different numbers on sky.Wulfrun_Phil said:Does anyone know how the BBC actually arrives at their ENS calculation?
It deserves a bit of scrutiny - for one thing it seems to have pre-dated the counting of the London Assembly votes. Will they revise it or is that it?0 -
0
-
Isn't Luton Airport on top of a hill pretty close by the M1? I'd have thought that expansion to any great degree is constrained geographically. It would be handy though.MaxPB said:
Plus we'd get to bulldoze the whole of Luton and pretend it never existed. It's a real win/win scenario.SeanT said:
I'm sitting in a sunny square in Nyons, Provence. I got here by Luton Airport.Sunil_Prasannan said:
http://www.gatwickobviously.com/FrancisUrquhart said:
Anti-Eu, anti-heathrow, less than pro uber, wrong side of all those arguments for London.anothernick said:
Agreed.SouthamObserver said:
It may also be the case that the Goldsmith vote energised dormant anti-Tory voters who were reminded of why they do not like the party. It sort of happened in Oldham East too to an extent: the UKIP campaign actually got Labour voters to come out and vote.anothernick said:
Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.NickPalmer said:Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is party basis.
However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.
Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.
Coming out for Leave was another Goldsmith blunder - London leans heavily to Remain and going for Leave lost him any chance of vocal support from business or the City.
The main London airport should be Luton. 20 minutes from St Pancras (and the Eurostar). Near the M25 and the M1. On the right side of Londom for the rest of the country. Surrounded by poor Labour-voting, Khan-supporting immigrants who won't complain about noise, and would welcome the extra work. It ticks every box and avoids every pitfall.
Why can't it be Luton??
0 -
BBC probably scared they would have to report 150+ Labour losses.JonCisBack said:BBC Council results site is dire.
Always used to be able to see gains or losses by council, now all you get is a link to the relevant council's homepage! Most of these don;t have "gain" or "loss" just who won.
How pathetic.0 -
Be interesting to know how they calculated these numbers.dr_spyn said:Labour holding on....
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/7286023961888890880 -
I think there's perhaps a case for the general Tory position as epitomised by Cameron causing him some difficulties with people drifting to UKIPCasino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
I can also see the point TSE is making about pro-remain London not necessarily welcoming his position.
For all that this provisional result is basically a re-run of the 2015 GE so perhaps absolutely nothing of any substance or personal regard has made any difference?
Britain Elects @britainelects 7m7 minutes ago
London Mayoralty, provisional result so far:
Khan: 44%
Goldsmith: 35%
Berry: 6%
Pidgeon: 5%
Whittle: 4%
Walker: 2%
(96.6% verified)
0 -
Dixie's very quiet today - a sure Tory hold, he said? Labour not bothering?murali_s said:
Yay!AndreaParma_82 said:Merton & W
Leonie Cooper (Lab) 77,340 (41.71%, +5.17%)
David Dean (C) 73,039 (39.39%, -3.75%)
Esther Obiri-Darko (Green) 14,682 (7.92%, +0.44%)
Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett (LD) 10,732 (5.79%, -2.09%)
Elizabeth Jones (UKIP) 8,478 (4.57%, +2.11%)
Thamilini Kulendran (Ind) 1,142 (0.62%, -0.99%)
Lab maj 4,301 (2.32%)
Cracking result for Labour - my vote did count after all!
It's hard to judge these things, to be fair - cf. Broxtowe 2015, blush.0 -
The Zoomers have moved passed anger and grief and are now trying bargainingSeanT said:This is tricky for NICOLA. How can she placate her howling cybernats, desperate for indyref2, yet acknowledge political reality - that it's not going to happen in this parliament?
@Frasergrant: Now that the yoon has turned blue and Kezia is Ruthie's gimp- anyone reckon some slabs may see the value in Indy after all?0 -
It would be a paradox if London is an area of Conservative outperformance, this time.chestnut said:
I think there's perhaps a case for the general Tory position as epitomised by Cameron causing him some difficulties with people drifting to UKIPCasino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
I can also see the point TSE is making about pro-remain London not necessarily welcoming his position.
For all that this provisional result is basically a re-run of the 2015 GE so perhaps absolutely nothing of any substance or personal regard has made any difference?
Britain Elects @britainelects 7m7 minutes ago
London Mayoralty, provisional result so far:
Khan: 44%
Goldsmith: 35%
Berry: 6%
Pidgeon: 5%
Whittle: 4%
Walker: 2%
(96.6% verified)0 -
Apologies if this has already been remarked upon, but as the results of London's second biggest elections (after GE) become clear, today's West End Final edition of the Standard devotes its front page to... Boaty McBoatface. It seems you have to look a couple of pages in to see how their anointed one did, first seeing a story about calls for Corbyn to quit after "poor results". I guess you have to give some credit for brazening it out.Casino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.0 -
Sounds all quite welcome.Sean_F said:
Over in Northern Ireland, both Sinn Fein and SDLP are losing 2-3% of the vote, and the DUP are down 2%. The gainers are minor Unionist parties, Greens, and People Before Profit.0 -
Shadsy trying to recoup some losses...
@LadPolitics: Suppose it's about time to have some odds on the 2020 London Mayoral election.
100/1 Ken Livingstone, anyone? https://t.co/d1Sg33axVt0 -
I still maintain Dixie was trolling us...NickPalmer said:
Dixie's very quiet today - a sure Tory hold, he said? Labour not bothering?murali_s said:
Yay!AndreaParma_82 said:Merton & W
Leonie Cooper (Lab) 77,340 (41.71%, +5.17%)
David Dean (C) 73,039 (39.39%, -3.75%)
Esther Obiri-Darko (Green) 14,682 (7.92%, +0.44%)
Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett (LD) 10,732 (5.79%, -2.09%)
Elizabeth Jones (UKIP) 8,478 (4.57%, +2.11%)
Thamilini Kulendran (Ind) 1,142 (0.62%, -0.99%)
Lab maj 4,301 (2.32%)
Cracking result for Labour - my vote did count after all!
It's hard to judge these things, to be fair - cf. Broxtowe 2015, blush.
0 -
Cumbria PCC
McCall (Con) 41,345
Watson (Lab) 30,437
Con hold
Ind hold Gloucestershire PCC0 -
@ScottyNational: Investigation : SNP to launch investigation into those constituencies they lost to ask why more giant posters of Nicola were not used0
-
I.am not sure Jezza is very wise to keep linking labour with extremists...surely he would be better saying Tories ran a very negative campaign etc etc etc, but he said numerous times in his speech about Tories claims of Sadiq connections to extremists.
I thought the advice was always never repeat your opponents allegations rather reframe them. Cameron going in about offshore tax.havens just makes people think he is a tax dodger.0 -
More like lack of resources.weejonnie said:
BBC probably scared they would have to report 150+ Labour losses.JonCisBack said:BBC Council results site is dire.
Always used to be able to see gains or losses by council, now all you get is a link to the relevant council's homepage! Most of these don;t have "gain" or "loss" just who won.
How pathetic.0 -
Lab hold Nottinghamshire PCC
Con hold Hertfordshire PCC0 -
I think it’s the first rule of political interviews – don’t repeat the accusation levied against you.FrancisUrquhart said:I.am not sure Jezza is very wise to keep linking labour with extremists...surely he would be better saying Tories ran a very negative campaign etc etc etc, but he said numerous times in his speech about Tories claims of Sadiq connections to extremists.
0 -
Yet they are collating the results since you see them on the TV. The effort required to put them on the website would be small.surbiton said:
More like lack of resources.weejonnie said:
BBC probably scared they would have to report 150+ Labour losses.JonCisBack said:BBC Council results site is dire.
Always used to be able to see gains or losses by council, now all you get is a link to the relevant council's homepage! Most of these don;t have "gain" or "loss" just who won.
How pathetic.0 -
You would hope in this day & age that it would be automated.RobD said:
Yet they are collating the results since you see them on the TV. The effort required to put them on the website would be small.surbiton said:
More like lack of resources.weejonnie said:
BBC probably scared they would have to report 150+ Labour losses.JonCisBack said:BBC Council results site is dire.
Always used to be able to see gains or losses by council, now all you get is a link to the relevant council's homepage! Most of these don;t have "gain" or "loss" just who won.
How pathetic.0 -
Which was a big surprise for those of us who had expected him to be a much stronger opponent. He had never seemed shy before - when he was selected he seemed to be well outside the Tory mainstream - a committed environmental campaigner and photogenic to boot - it was easy to imagine his appeal encompassing many voters who did not consider themselves natural Tories.Casino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
But his campaign seems to have almost been designed to distance him from his past self and foster the idea that he was, in fact, just another rich Tory boy who had little understanding of ordinary Londoners. So it's hardly surprising that the voters took the same view.0 -
I think the number of Tory voters in London who abstained, or switched votes, because of Zac's position on the EU is very small. The Leave vote still polls between 36-42% in London, above Scotland and NI. There may have been a few naturally centre-left Boris supporters for whom it reinforced their switch back to Khan but I doubt it was decisive.chestnut said:
I think there's perhaps a case for the general Tory position as epitomised by Cameron causing him some difficulties with people drifting to UKIPCasino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
I can also see the point TSE is making about pro-remain London not necessarily welcoming his position.
For all that this provisional result is basically a re-run of the 2015 GE so perhaps absolutely nothing of any substance or personal regard has made any difference?
Britain Elects @britainelects 7m7 minutes ago
London Mayoralty, provisional result so far:
Khan: 44%
Goldsmith: 35%
Berry: 6%
Pidgeon: 5%
Whittle: 4%
Walker: 2%
(96.6% verified)
Plenty of Tory leavers on here have been heavily critical and apathetic about Zac's campaign or voting for him.
The result is good for the pollsters, who got it pretty much bang on in London whether by luck or judgement.0 -
Warwickshire PCC: Con gain from Ind (who didn't stand again)0
-
This might be very unfair, but to me it looked like Zac's campaign never really started.anothernick said:
Which was a big surprise for those of us who had expected him to be a much stronger opponent. He had never seemed shy before - when he was selected he seemed to be well outside the Tory mainstream - a committed environmental campaigner and photogenic to boot - it was easy to imagine his appeal encompassing many voters who did not consider themselves natural Tories.Casino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
But his campaign seems to have almost been designed to distance him from his past self and foster the idea that he was, in fact, just another rich Tory boy who had little understanding of ordinary Londoners. So it's hardly surprising that the voters took the same view.
The only times I noticed him was when photographed out and about with Boris, where it was he who got all the attention and Zac looked like his sheepish bag carrier.0 -
Having seen comments here and elsewhere - Tory apathy seems to be the key factor. Unless you really cared, why bother? IIRC the Merton/Wandsworth seat had 8k+ Kipper votes, that's another reason Zac missed the cut.Casino_Royale said:
I think the number of Tory voters in London who abstained, or switched votes, because of Zac's position on the EU is very small. The Leave vote still polls between 36-42% in London, above Scotland and NI. There may have been a few naturally centre-left Boris supporters for whom it reinforced their switch back to Khan but I doubt it was decisive.chestnut said:
I think there's perhaps a case for the general Tory position as epitomised by Cameron causing him some difficulties with people drifting to UKIPCasino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
I can also see the point TSE is making about pro-remain London not necessarily welcoming his position.
For all that this provisional result is basically a re-run of the 2015 GE so perhaps absolutely nothing of any substance or personal regard has made any difference?
Britain Elects @britainelects 7m7 minutes ago
London Mayoralty, provisional result so far:
Khan: 44%
Goldsmith: 35%
Berry: 6%
Pidgeon: 5%
Whittle: 4%
Walker: 2%
(96.6% verified)
Plenty of Tory leavers on here have been heavily critical and apathetic about Zac's campaign or voting for him.
The result is good for the pollsters, who got it pretty much bang on in London whether by luck or judgement.0 -
I doubt it was just eu, but he was on the wrong side of the argument (for London) on a number of issues. Doubt it made a massive difference for converting people against but won't have had people rushing to the polls either.Casino_Royale said:
I think the number of Tory voters in London who abstained, or switched votes, because of Zac's position on the EU is very small. The Leave vote still polls between 36-42% in London, above Scotland and NI. There may have been a few naturally centre-left Boris supporters for whom it reinforced their switch back to Khan but I doubt it was decisive.chestnut said:
I think there's perhaps a case for the general Tory position as epitomised by Cameron causing him some difficulties with people drifting to UKIPCasino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
I can also see the point TSE is making about pro-remain London not necessarily welcoming his position.
For all that this provisional result is basically a re-run of the 2015 GE so perhaps absolutely nothing of any substance or personal regard has made any difference?
Britain Elects @britainelects 7m7 minutes ago
London Mayoralty, provisional result so far:
Khan: 44%
Goldsmith: 35%
Berry: 6%
Pidgeon: 5%
Whittle: 4%
Walker: 2%
(96.6% verified)
Plenty of Tory leavers on here have been heavily critical and apathetic about Zac's campaign or voting for him.
The result is good for the pollsters, who got it pretty much bang on in London whether by luck or judgement.0 -
This Mayoral election is the first election I've sat out since the 1999 Euros...Plato_Says said:
Having seen comments here and elsewhere - Tory apathy seems to be the key factor. Unless you really cared, why bother? IIRC the Merton/Wandsworth seat had 8k+ Kipper votes, that's another reason Zac missed the cut.Casino_Royale said:
I think the number of Tory voters in London who abstained, or switched votes, because of Zac's position on the EU is very small. The Leave vote still polls between 36-42% in London, above Scotland and NI. There may have been a few naturally centre-left Boris supporters for whom it reinforced their switch back to Khan but I doubt it was decisive.chestnut said:
I think there's perhaps a case for the general Tory position as epitomised by Cameron causing him some difficulties with people drifting to UKIPCasino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
I can also see the point TSE is making about pro-remain London not necessarily welcoming his position.
For all that this provisional result is basically a re-run of the 2015 GE so perhaps absolutely nothing of any substance or personal regard has made any difference?
Britain Elects @britainelects 7m7 minutes ago
London Mayoralty, provisional result so far:
Khan: 44%
Goldsmith: 35%
Berry: 6%
Pidgeon: 5%
Whittle: 4%
Walker: 2%
(96.6% verified)
Plenty of Tory leavers on here have been heavily critical and apathetic about Zac's campaign or voting for him.
The result is good for the pollsters, who got it pretty much bang on in London whether by luck or judgement.0 -
Don't Unseat Jeremy Corbyn Association.anothernick said:
Which was a big surprise for those of us who had expected him to be a much stronger opponent. He had never seemed shy before - when he was selected he seemed to be well outside the Tory mainstream - a committed environmental campaigner and photogenic to boot - it was easy to imagine his appeal encompassing many voters who did not consider themselves natural Tories.Casino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
But his campaign seems to have almost been designed to distance him from his past self and foster the idea that he was, in fact, just another rich Tory boy who had little understanding of ordinary Londoners. So it's hardly surprising that the voters took the same view.0 -
Ken Livingstone is asked about the impact the anti-Semitism row - and his comments about Hitler in a BBC radio interview - has had on the ability of Jewish Londoners to back Sadiq Khan.
Mr Livingston says Sadiq Khan "was 12 years old when Lenni Brenner published his book about the deal between the Zionist movement and the Nazis".0 -
I agree. Goldsmith was a candidate who simply didn't play to his strengths and was utterly inept at making much of Khan's weaknesses. In relation to the latter he focused on the wrong things and followed through in a crude way.anothernick said:
Which was a big surprise for those of us who had expected him to be a much stronger opponent. He had never seemed shy before - when he was selected he seemed to be well outside the Tory mainstream - a committed environmental campaigner and photogenic to boot - it was easy to imagine his appeal encompassing many voters who did not consider themselves natural Tories.Casino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
But his campaign seems to have almost been designed to distance him from his past self and foster the idea that he was, in fact, just another rich Tory boy who had little understanding of ordinary Londoners. So it's hardly surprising that the voters took the same view.
Let's see what Khan makes of the role. I remain to be convinced that he will do what he has promised re taking on extremists - I doubt he will do anything much, if at all. Doing nothing is not good enough IMO. Anything that does not push back hard against the extremists is a big missed opportunity.
0 -
He isn't going to change the habit of a lifetime is he.Cyclefree said:
I agree. Goldsmith was a candidate who simply didn't play to his strengths and was utterly inept at making much of Khan's weaknesses. In relation to the latter he focused on the wrong things and followed through in a crude way.anothernick said:
Which was a big surprise for those of us who had expected him to be a much stronger opponent. He had never seemed shy before - when he was selected he seemed to be well outside the Tory mainstream - a committed environmental campaigner and photogenic to boot - it was easy to imagine his appeal encompassing many voters who did not consider themselves natural Tories.Casino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
But his campaign seems to have almost been designed to distance him from his past self and foster the idea that he was, in fact, just another rich Tory boy who had little understanding of ordinary Londoners. So it's hardly surprising that the voters took the same view.
Let's see what Khan makes of the role. I remain to be convinced that he will do what he has promised re taking on extremists - I doubt he will do anything much, if at all. Doing nothing is not good enough IMO. Anything that does not push back hard against the extremists is a big missed opportunity.0 -
Why is impossible for the SNP to put a independence referendum bill before parliament?0
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GLA (Bexley/Bromley)
Turnout 41% (2012:38%).
The biggest gainers in actual votes were UKIP - up nearly 20,0000 -
Nottinghamshire
Round 1
TIPPING Paddy Labour Party 80926
HARPER Tony The Conservative Party Candidate 48155
LOI Fran UK Independence Party (UKIP) 20030
BATES Tony Independent 14579
ZADROZNY Jason Bernard Independent 7164
Round 2
Tipping 89749
Harper 56105
Round 1 in Broxtowe was Lab 7882 Con 73780 -
I genuinely have no idea what point he even thinks he is making there. It's bizarre. It's like his brain is trying to get his mouth to chant "HitlerHITLERHitler" and it's all he can do to force some other words out regardless of how little sense they make.FrancisUrquhart said:Ken Livingstone is asked about the impact the anti-Semitism row - and his comments about Hitler in a BBC radio interview - has had on the ability of Jewish Londoners to back Sadiq Khan.
Mr Livingston says Sadiq Khan "was 12 years old when Lenni Brenner published his book about the deal between the Zionist movement and the Nazis".0 -
Road to Damascus conversion...
Last year Nuneaton resident Clare Golby was interviewed by the BBC as a “Labour supporter” who “voted for Jeremy Corbyn”. Since then she decided to run for the local council and today she has been elected… as a Tory! Even worse, she won her seat off Labour.
http://order-order.com/2016/05/06/tory-for-corbyn-elected-in-nuneaton/0 -
I'd probably too if I still lived up there. A greenie anti Uber blah blah TINO - nah.Sunil_Prasannan said:
This Mayoral election is the first election I've sat out since the 1999 Euros...Plato_Says said:
Having seen comments here and elsewhere - Tory apathy seems to be the key factor. Unless you really cared, why bother? IIRC the Merton/Wandsworth seat had 8k+ Kipper votes, that's another reason Zac missed the cut.Casino_Royale said:
I think the number of Tory voters in London who abstained, or switched votes, because of Zac's position on the EU is very small. The Leave vote still polls between 36-42% in London, above Scotland and NI. There may have been a few naturally centre-left Boris supporters for whom it reinforced their switch back to Khan but I doubt it was decisive.chestnut said:
I think there's perhaps a case for the general Tory position as epitomised by Cameron causing him some difficulties with people drifting to UKIPCasino_Royale said:
Personally, I think Goldsmith's position on the EU had little to do with the result.chestnut said:
Combine that with the residual damage of Leavers in places like Bexley and Havering giving the Tory box a miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, being a Leaver was a 'courageous' choice in London.chestnut said:Goldsmith caught in the referendum tailwinds?
Especially as EU citizens can vote in this, but not the referendum.
He was a shy, low-profile candidate who ran a lacklustre campaign with limited policy offerings for Londoners.
I can also see the point TSE is making about pro-remain London not necessarily welcoming his position.
For all that this provisional result is basically a re-run of the 2015 GE so perhaps absolutely nothing of any substance or personal regard has made any difference?
Britain Elects @britainelects 7m7 minutes ago
London Mayoralty, provisional result so far:
Khan: 44%
Goldsmith: 35%
Berry: 6%
Pidgeon: 5%
Whittle: 4%
Walker: 2%
(96.6% verified)
Plenty of Tory leavers on here have been heavily critical and apathetic about Zac's campaign or voting for him.
The result is good for the pollsters, who got it pretty much bang on in London whether by luck or judgement.0 -
Turnout in Merton and Wandsworth up by over 30,000 voters.
Lab vote up from 55k in 2012 to 77k.0 -
If I heard it correctly Andrew Pierce is making up Tory gains in Wales right now.0
