Scotland's a far more enlightened country than England; progressive, tolerant, it has no truck with the Tor - ......sorry, what's that you say? 34 seats and the main opposition at Holyrood?
Maybe Scots will come down off their high horses now.
Well done Ruth, quite a feat. I was struck by how filled Twitter was last night with young and trendy Twitter types airing their support for Ruth and the Scottish Conservatives. Most unusual.
The Tories are antithesis of enlightenment, progress and tolerance? Ok, if you say so.
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
WOW!!
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.
Did you toss a coin to see who would convert to the other's religion ?
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
WOW!!
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.
He gives you your rights. How nice that must be for you.
"THE ODDS of an independent Scotland have taken a nosedive after the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood in the election, according to bookmaker Ladbrokes."
"Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes said: “A pretty bad night for Labour in Scotland, but also a costly one for those backing an SNP majority and the chances of an independent Scotland any time soon.”
The odds of a another independence referendum before 2020 are now 5/1, with 10/1 odds of Scots voting Yes in such a scenario."
Hmmmm, I'd have thought that if IndyRef2 was called pre 2020 then it would be far shorter than 10/1 for a Yes vote to actually occur as the SNP+others would have had to jump through hoops to call it.
"THE ODDS of an independent Scotland have taken a nosedive after the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood in the election, according to bookmaker Ladbrokes."
"Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes said: “A pretty bad night for Labour in Scotland, but also a costly one for those backing an SNP majority and the chances of an independent Scotland any time soon.”
The odds of a another independence referendum before 2020 are now 5/1, with 10/1 odds of Scots voting Yes in such a scenario."
Hmmmm, I'd have thought that if IndyRef2 was called pre 2020 then it would be far shorter than 10/1 for a Yes vote to actually occur as the SNP+others would have had to jump through hoops to call it.
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
WOW!!
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.
Did you toss a coin to see who would convert to the other's religion ?
Heads she became Muslim, tails she became Muslim was probably more like it.
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
WOW!!
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.
He gives you your rights. How nice that must be for you.
yeah it is.
he provides food, clothing and shelter, supports me studying for my degree, educates me in Islam, tries to teach me Arabic (lol), respects me etc
No I am not - though I do not think the likes of Laura Kuensberg do - nor indeed most politicians. I am confident that, if given the opportunity of drawing Curtice & Thrasher's attention to these earlier examples , they would accept the point.These are historical electoral facts - I am not making them up! For whatever reason, they have decided on a starting point of 1973/74 Reform of Local Government and for reasons best known to themselves have chosen to ignore earlier data. In no way does that make it invalid to refer to the earlier results.
I may try to send them an email on this - because it is seriously misleading.If political anoraks on here are swallowing that line what hope is there for the public at large?.
I've told you before why they use post 1973/74 onwards.
Prior to that there were many more council seats up for election, and you can't extrapolate accurate NESV prior to 73/74.
Post 1973/74 Council seat losses/gains combined with NESV gives much more accurate barometer for future general election predictions.
But Rallings, Thrasher, and Curtice have only been studying this for decades, what do they know?
I am sure the NESV could still be done for those earlier years but a significantly different model to arrive at the result would be needed. Because the results now go some way back they have little inclination to invest the necessary time and resources. Nevertheless it would not be that difficult for them to check that in 1960 and 1961 the Labour Opposition party lost several hundred seats to Macmillan's Tory Govt. We don't need NESV to establish that! Similarly Labour made big gains at the 1952 locals but still failed to win the 1955 election. At the May 1970 locals Labour gained circa 500 seats from the Tories but still lost the General Election five weeks later.
While I salute your indefatigability, you do appear to be heading down the plug hole of seeing the past as providing some sort of infallible guide to the future. As much as I'd love that to be the case, and I have some pretty good history qualifications, I don't rate myself as a seer. It's as laughable as HYFUD setting out in detail why labour will win the 2025 election and Umanna will be PM.
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
WOW!!
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.
He gives you your rights. How nice that must be for you.
And that is the whole point - having given up that which was by given by right of having been born or a naturalised citizen of Britain, it must first be assumed taken before it can be returned by another person in the name of religion.
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
WOW!!
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.
You have the zeal of the convert, that's for sure.
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
WOW!!
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.
He gives you your rights. How nice that must be for you.
yeah it is.
he provides food, clothing and shelter, supports me studying for my degree, educates me in Islam, tries to teach me Arabic (lol), respects me etc
Sounds like a fun kind of person. Soon enough he'll be driving you around, no need for you to have your own car. He'll probably keep your passport safe too, just so no one can steal it.
Welsh Labour could be in for a massive beat down next time out, they have hung on by the skin of their teeth in loads of constituencies. If the referendum hadn't split the Tories and UKIP didn't have their heads up their own arses it would have been very bad for Labour in Wales. Next time out itay be devastating for them like it has been on Scotland.
What happens on 23rd June will throw everything up in the air. I'm not sure we can crystal ball any of this.
I'll have a go.
Remain wins. Cameron remains. Life goes on.
Europhobes/UKIPPers will continue ranting and railing. But life will go on.
@tnewtondunn: Of all the party leaders, Cameron is the clear winner from #SuperThursday. Harder to see a post #EUref leader bid when Tories still gaining.
Welsh Labour could be in for a massive beat down next time out, they have hung on by the skin of their teeth in loads of constituencies. If the referendum hadn't split the Tories and UKIP didn't have their heads up their own arses it would have been very bad for Labour in Wales. Next time out itay be devastating for them like it has been on Scotland.
What happens on 23rd June will throw everything up in the air. I'm not sure we can crystal ball any of this.
I'll have a go.
Remain wins. Cameron remains. Life goes on.
Europhobes/UKIPPers will continue ranting and railing. But life will go on.
Business as usual.
That's the outline for the thread I've written for Sunday
Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?
On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.
On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.
Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.
Scotland's a far more enlightened country than England; progressive, tolerant, it has no truck with the Tor - ......sorry, what's that you say? 34 seats and the main opposition at Holyrood?
Maybe Scots will come down off their high horses now.
Well done Ruth, quite a feat. I was struck by how filled Twitter was last night with young and trendy Twitter types airing their support for Ruth and the Scottish Conservatives. Most unusual.
The Tories are antithesis of enlightenment, progress and tolerance? Ok, if you say so.
According to many up in Scotland.
I'm pretty sure the 75% plus (i.e. the vast majority) that voted for parties other than the Cons & UKIP still think that.
Does MG actually live in Scotland..claims a victory for the SNP..they lost the Overall Majority..it stuffs them...What price now for Independence..Child Minders from birth to 18..Tax rises..roll on more victories for the SNP..
Does MG actually live in Scotland..claims a victory for the SNP..they lost the Overall Majority..it stuffs them...What price now for Independence..Child Minders from birth to 18..Tax rises..roll on more victories for the SNP..
Malcolm is a resident of Ayrshire - and he's awoken to SCON Hold in his home seat.
Result! Seventy days after the election, Enda Kenny voted in as Taoiseach 59-49, FF and several indies abstained. Minority FG government, with indies to be given cabinet seats.
Edit: That's just one vote to spare, he needed 58 to be re-elected.
Yes. Leann Wood took the Rhonda from 20+% behind to a majority of 15% for Plaid. Plaid got double digits swings in Blaenau Gwent and Cardiff West. But then they failed to gain Llanelli where Labour was defending a majority of less than 100 votes.
Conservatives got good swings in their favour in Wrexham and Vale of Clwyd but not in Clwyd South or Delyn. Cardiff North was an increased Labour majority (even if at the beginning of the night Julie Morgan was almost conceding defeat). The Labour woman in Vale of Glamorgan continues to survive for mysterious reasons.
In fact, non-Muslims have single-sex schools, colleges, and loads of single-sex clubs and societies. I see no reason why they should be outlawed. If people wish to socialise with members of the same sex, or believe their child will benefit from a single sex education, I say let them.
The fact that there are rules about what women have to wear and who they can interact with shows the problem with Islam
Acting in accordance with a set of archaic rules - drawn up by men to control women - does not strike me as something anyone should accept. And given the cultural of oppression, it is clearly not the case that all Muslim women are acting on their free will.
Any faith that condones honour violence is not one that deserves respect.
Well Islam has been practised since the 7th century and is part of modern Britain. Its not going anywhere and is not only here to stay but is growing due to demographics, converts and immigration.
As Trevor Philips say, Islam will not change and Muslims will not integrate how other minorities have done in the past. So it really doesn't matter what non muslims think or say, as long as Muslims are not breaking the law, live and let live.
But Muslims are breaking the law - and their crimes are not being investigated/prosecuted because of 'cultural norms'
And yes, this does extend to honour killings and related violence.
We need to be honest about this - and find ways so that our criminal justice system takes no notice of faith and just brings perpetrators to trial.
What evidence do you have that Muslims are breaking the law and not being investigated or prosecuted because of cultural norms?
Im talking about now in 2016. Rotherham and other sex abuse scandals are a failure of police and social services in the past. But men of all races and religions have committed sex abuse scandals that have been covered up or not investigated...Jimmy Saville, catholic priests, politicians, care workers?
My posts today have been in relation to someone originally saying that guidelines issued by a mosque are "appallingly subjugating muslim women" which is just wrong.
We are in a tip-of-the-iceberg country with the subject of HRV - and I acknowledge that it is not just restricted to Muslim communities, but it is more prevalent there.
No I do not have a problem with muslim men. I do have a problem with any person, system, law or religion that fails to recognise that people have equal rights regardless of gender, colour or sexuality.
If you wish to live your life according to the tenets of Islam then that is your right and I wish you all happiness in doing so, but you cannot expect special exceptions for Islam if it clashes with the laws of the land.
And before you say I am attacking Islam I should point out that the same should be true for ALL religions and I think that Christianity should be disestablished as the religion of the UK. Religion is a personal choice and anyone can convert or join or leave at any time. It is not something anyone is stuck with so I see no reason to give any religion exceptions.
UKIP ploughed in a lot of money this time, I sense. They were the only guys I got stuff through the door from, and there were big wrap ads on Kent websites.
Looks like it'll be a Con win though, helped by local elections going on in Tunbridge Wells at the same time. Big lead for the Con guy there where it's pretty tight either way elsewhere:
Henry Bolton (Ukip): 4,522; David Naghi (LD): 2,837; Tristan Osborne (Lab): 3,909; Gurvinder Sandher (Ind): 2,444; Matthew Scott (Con): 10,569; Steve Uncles (ED): 569.
No I am not - though I do not think the likes of Laura Kuensberg do - nor indeed most politicians. I am confident that, if given the opportunity of drawing Curtice & Thrasher's attention to these earlier examples , they would accept the point.These are historical electoral facts - I am not making them up! For whatever reason, they have decided on a starting point of 1973/74 Reform of Local Government and for reasons best known to themselves have chosen to ignore earlier data. In no way does that make it invalid to refer to the earlier results.
I may try to send them an email on this - because it is seriously misleading.If political anoraks on here are swallowing that line what hope is there for the public at large?.
I've told you before why they use post 1973/74 onwards.
Prior to that there were many more council seats up for election, and you can't extrapolate accurate NESV prior to 73/74.
Post 1973/74 Council seat losses/gains combined with NESV gives much more accurate barometer for future general election predictions.
But Rallings, Thrasher, and Curtice have only been studying this for decades, what do they know?
I am sure the NESV could still be done for those earlier years but a significantly different model to arrive at the result would be needed. Because the results now go some way back they have little inclination to invest the necessary time and resources. Nevertheless it would not be that difficult for them to check that in 1960 and 1961 the Labour Opposition party lost several hundred seats to Macmillan's Tory Govt. We don't need NESV to establish that! Similarly Labour made big gains at the 1952 locals but still failed to win the 1955 election. At the May 1970 locals Labour gained circa 500 seats from the Tories but still lost the General Election five weeks later.
While I salute your indefatigability, you do appear to be heading down the plug hole of seeing the past as providing some sort of infallible guide to the future. As much as I'd love that to be the case, and I have some pretty good history qualifications, I don't rate myself as a seer. It's as laughable as HYFUD setting out in detail why labour will win the 2025 election and Umanna will be PM.
I think you misunderstand my last post. I do NOT see the results of Local Elections in Year 1 of a Parliament as much of a guide to a General Election four years later .- and what is more they never have been.
Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?
On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.
On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.
Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.
The good news for the SNP is that with the Tories in second place they'll have no trouble in getting their tax cutting agenda through the Parliament. Unlike other parts of the UK, Scotland has voted unequivocally for parties that believe the best way to grow the economy is to cut taxes for the better off, rather than raising them, and to squeeze the public services used by the poorest. It is now clearly the most right wing of the home nations. Whoever would have thought it?
Just to say, as a proportion of seats being defended, the Tories have suffered a bigger loss than Labour in the English council elections (using BBC numbers).
Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
"But the idea that Jeremy Corbyn makes traditional Labour voters reach for the smelling salts or to change allegiance has no substance as yet. Those Labour supporters, so noisy in the media and on Twitter, who are appalled with him and have sat on their hands or changed sides seem to be a small minority.
"This is the single most important point to be deduced so far."
The first part of this section - 'there is no evidence that ...' - is good analysis. However, the assumption that because people are happy to vote Labour in local or regional elections, where Corbyn is not on the ticket and a vote for Labour cannot change Corbyn's impact on actual governance anywhere, is just that, an assumption with no evidence.
So to jump from that correct first sentence to the conclusion that Corbyn WILL HAVE NO IMPACT on a GE is a massive one which clearly does not warrant the 'single most important point' label.
So what was all the 'london torys looking chipper' and 'too close to call' stuff from the Tory rampers about?
We're in the strange situation where the Scottish Tory Surgers were actually right and the supposedly finger-on-the-pulse sources on the ground in England (inc London) were full of it?
@IanDunt: The SNP's overly tribal campaign will make cooperation with other parties in Holyrood rather difficult https://t.co/AiFWMKSWXK
Which gives Labour post-2020 a glimmer of hope. If, by some miracle, Labour are the largest party in Westminster but without a majority, they can just plough on as a minority government and dare the SNP to vote with the Tories.
Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.
However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.
Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.
Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?
On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.
On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.
Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.
The good news for the SNP is that with the Tories in second place they'll have no trouble in getting their tax cutting agenda through the Parliament. Unlike other parts of the UK, Scotland has voted unequivocally for parties that believe the best way to grow the economy is to cut taxes for the better off, rather than raising them, and to squeeze the public services used by the poorest. It is now clearly the most right wing of the home nations. Whoever would have thought it?
I have always thought that all those lost Scottish Tory voters did not cease to hold conservative views on things like economics or law and order. They were either voting to support independence or to show their disgust for the Tory party. At some point, it was inevitable that the conservative policies would reappear.
So what was all the 'london torys looking chipper' and 'too close to call' stuff from the Tory rampers about?
We're in the strange situation where the Scottish Tory Surgers were actually right and the supposedly finger-on-the-pulse sources on the ground in England (inc London) were full of it?
It was quite bizarre and I don't think anybody really seriously bought it.
Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
I think Khan fought an excellent campaign. One that Labour nationally would do well to emulate - plenty of outreach to potentially difficult and doubtful parts of the electorate.
Boris's legacy to London is a Labour mayor and a Labour assembly.
Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
Actually, it's the "Havering and" part that will keep the Redbridge seat blue
"But the idea that Jeremy Corbyn makes traditional Labour voters reach for the smelling salts or to change allegiance has no substance as yet. Those Labour supporters, so noisy in the media and on Twitter, who are appalled with him and have sat on their hands or changed sides seem to be a small minority.
"This is the single most important point to be deduced so far."
The first part of this section - 'there is no evidence that ...' - is good analysis. However, the assumption that because people are happy to vote Labour in local or regional elections, where Corbyn is not on the ticket and a vote for Labour cannot change Corbyn's impact on actual governance anywhere, is just that, an assumption with no evidence.
So to jump from that correct first sentence to the conclusion that Corbyn WILL HAVE NO IMPACT on a GE is a massive one which clearly does not warrant the 'single most important point' label.
I'm not jumping to that conclusion. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
You often hear it suggested that Labour always do worse than their polling, particularly in subsidiary elections. Not on this occasion they didn't (not south of the river Tweed anyway). That suggests either that polling has improved or that Labour have improved the motivation of their supporters. That deduction is potentially important for future by-elections and how to interpret future polls.
I make no assumptions about 2020. For what it's worth, my view is still that if Jeremy Corbyn is still Labour leader at the next general election, he will be a one ton lead weight around the party's neck. I'm much more prepared to be proved wrong after yesterday, however.
Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?
On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.
On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.
Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.
The good news for the SNP is that with the Tories in second place they'll have no trouble in getting their tax cutting agenda through the Parliament. Unlike other parts of the UK, Scotland has voted unequivocally for parties that believe the best way to grow the economy is to cut taxes for the better off, rather than raising them, and to squeeze the public services used by the poorest. It is now clearly the most right wing of the home nations. Whoever would have thought it?
The SNP's most impressive trick is to convince people it is progressive or even left wing. This ought to provide an opening for SLAB to attack SNP as the party of the rich and big business.
Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?
On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.
On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.
Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.
The good news for the SNP is that with the Tories in second place they'll have no trouble in getting their tax cutting agenda through the Parliament. Unlike other parts of the UK, Scotland has voted unequivocally for parties that believe the best way to grow the economy is to cut taxes for the better off, rather than raising them, and to squeeze the public services used by the poorest. It is now clearly the most right wing of the home nations. Whoever would have thought it?
I have always thought that all those lost Scottish Tory voters did not cease to hold conservative views on things like economics or law and order. They were either voting to support independence or to show their disgust for the Tory party. At some point, it was inevitable that the conservative policies would reappear.
I imagine a lot of SNP votes were and probably still are anti-Labour votes.
Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.
However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.
Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.
It may also be the case that the Goldsmith vote energised dormant anti-Tory voters who were reminded of why they do not like the party. It sort of happened in Oldham East too to an extent: the UKIP campaign actually got Labour voters to come out and vote.
Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
I think Khan fought an excellent campaign. One that Labour nationally would do well to emulate - plenty of outreach to potentially difficult and doubtful parts of the electorate.
And it was on a shoestring budget too - far fewer leaflets than last time and even when we got them there were never enough to go round.
At least seven police forces are investigating whether election expenses for Conservative MPs were filed illegally after the 2015 General Election. Three of those have told the BBC they are asking for an extension on the time limit of their investigations (otherwise these would expire one year after the election expenses were filed).
Beyond the seven forces, at least four others are considering what to do next or seeking further information.
Comments
Irish General Election 2016: Why PR is the way to go
he provides food, clothing and shelter, supports me studying for my degree, educates me in Islam, tries to teach me Arabic (lol), respects me etc
Remain wins. Cameron remains. Life goes on.
Europhobes/UKIPPers will continue ranting and railing. But life will go on.
Business as usual.
On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.
On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.
Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.
UKIP back in 4th place in 2016 projected national vote share from BBC.
Con 30
Lab 31
LD 15
UKIP 12
UKIP failed in goal of being 3rd
VICTORY shout the Zoomers...
Awesome.
"Hey SNP/Green voters don't worry your green budies get into government anyways, feel free to keep voting that way"
Edit: That's just one vote to spare, he needed 58 to be re-elected.
Conservatives got good swings in their favour in Wrexham and Vale of Clwyd but not in Clwyd South or Delyn. Cardiff North was an increased Labour majority (even if at the beginning of the night Julie Morgan was almost conceding defeat). The Labour woman in Vale of Glamorgan continues to survive for mysterious reasons.
Labour candidate polled 49.56%. Now going into second round but it's hardly breathtaking
Lab 24,209
Con 11,810
UKIP 8,668
Green Party 4,158
Absolutely no advantage to go into a coalition.
Lib Dems beat UKIP , AndyJS to eat his hat
http://www.courier.co.uk/Kent-Police-Crime-Commissioner-election-results/story-29237883-detail/story.html
UKIP winning East Kent (Shepway, Swale, Thanet etc), Con West, basically.
Turnout at 21.5%, up from 15% last time. PCC fever sweeping the nation?
Jamieson (Lab) 275672
Jones (Con) 142651
Durnell (UKIP) 93851
Flynn (Ind) 40478
A court spokesman told the BBC "it could not be proven" that the 26-year-old took part in the sexual assault.
He and a fellow Algerian, 23, were convicted of theft and were both given a six month suspended sentence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36225561
That will learn them...NOT...
2012 33 39 15
2013 26 29 13 22
2014 30 31 11 18
2015 36 32 10 12
2016 30 31 15 12
Just for a touch of context.
Every time a Tory female politician appears on TV
If you wish to live your life according to the tenets of Islam then that is your right and I wish you all happiness in doing so, but you cannot expect special exceptions for Islam if it clashes with the laws of the land.
And before you say I am attacking Islam I should point out that the same should be true for ALL religions and I think that Christianity should be disestablished as the religion of the UK. Religion is a personal choice and anyone can convert or join or leave at any time. It is not something anyone is stuck with so I see no reason to give any religion exceptions.
UKIP ploughed in a lot of money this time, I sense. They were the only guys I got stuff through the door from, and there were big wrap ads on Kent websites.
Looks like it'll be a Con win though, helped by local elections going on in Tunbridge Wells at the same time. Big lead for the Con guy there where it's pretty tight either way elsewhere:
Henry Bolton (Ukip): 4,522; David Naghi (LD): 2,837; Tristan Osborne (Lab): 3,909; Gurvinder Sandher (Ind): 2,444; Matthew Scott (Con): 10,569; Steve Uncles (ED): 569.
on SNP & a 2nd referendum they ain't interested in having!
https://t.co/fdRf8mROb6
http://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/728491210831106052
errrrr
Congrats to Conservatives in Scotland :-)
If yesterday's results happened last year, there would have been a hung parliament.
I used
https://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/English Local Elections Update - PSA Media Briefing Pack.pdf
So if 2016 uses a different methodology, I do apologise
Tim Passmore (Con) 68,093
Cath Pickles (Lab) 41,631
"This is the single most important point to be deduced so far."
The first part of this section - 'there is no evidence that ...' - is good analysis. However, the assumption that because people are happy to vote Labour in local or regional elections, where Corbyn is not on the ticket and a vote for Labour cannot change Corbyn's impact on actual governance anywhere, is just that, an assumption with no evidence.
So to jump from that correct first sentence to the conclusion that Corbyn WILL HAVE NO IMPACT on a GE is a massive one which clearly does not warrant the 'single most important point' label.
We're in the strange situation where the Scottish Tory Surgers were actually right and the supposedly finger-on-the-pulse sources on the ground in England (inc London) were full of it?
However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.
Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/441959652742664192
Boris's legacy to London is a Labour mayor and a Labour assembly.
You often hear it suggested that Labour always do worse than their polling, particularly in subsidiary elections. Not on this occasion they didn't (not south of the river Tweed anyway). That suggests either that polling has improved or that Labour have improved the motivation of their supporters. That deduction is potentially important for future by-elections and how to interpret future polls.
I make no assumptions about 2020. For what it's worth, my view is still that if Jeremy Corbyn is still Labour leader at the next general election, he will be a one ton lead weight around the party's neck. I'm much more prepared to be proved wrong after yesterday, however.
Conservative 87460
Labour 45791
Ukip 30485
Green 12685
Lib Dem 12145
APP 1243
Lib Dem +29
UKIP +22
Residents +4
All others in negative territory.
@holyroodmandy: @Ruth_E_Davidson urges @NicolaSturgeon to start new @ScotParl by ruling out a 2nd referendum #SP16
Beyond the seven forces, at least four others are considering what to do next or seeking further information.
BBC