Undefined discussion subject.

Options
1234579

Comments

  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Scott_P said:

    @holyroodmandy: @Ruth_E_Davidson says @theSNP must now govern not hector #SP16

    @holyroodmandy: @Ruth_E_Davidson urges @NicolaSturgeon to start new @ScotParl by ruling out a 2nd referendum #SP16

    "I hope you washed your ARSE this morning. It's about to be kissed by a King First Minister!"
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    edited May 2016
    U-TURNNNNNNNNNNNNNN.....

    In a major concession over its controversial academy plans, the government has announced good or outstanding schools will no longer be forced to become academies.

    Osborne told to get back in his box.
  • NeilVW
    NeilVW Posts: 749
    edited May 2016
    Michael Dugher (Labour MP) on BBC Two still criticising Corbyn's leadership, saying that Labour should have been electorally "storming ahead" of what he deems "the worst Conservative government that I can remember since Major in the mid-90s".

    Seeing as it's the first Conservative government (technically) since Major in the mid-90s... :-)
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    edited May 2016

    scotslass said:

    Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?

    On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.

    On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.

    Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.

    The good news for the SNP is that with the Tories in second place they'll have no trouble in getting their tax cutting agenda through the Parliament. Unlike other parts of the UK, Scotland has voted unequivocally for parties that believe the best way to grow the economy is to cut taxes for the better off, rather than raising them, and to squeeze the public services used by the poorest. It is now clearly the most right wing of the home nations. Whoever would have thought it?

    The SNP's most impressive trick is to convince people it is progressive or even left wing.
    A trick that SLab, despite its essentially Blairite tendencies, seems entirely incapable of performing on its own behalf.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 2m2 minutes ago
    The government has abandoned its plans to force all schools to become academies.

    Good day to bury some bad news.
  • anothernick
    anothernick Posts: 3,591

    Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.

    Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.

    However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.

    Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.

    It may also be the case that the Goldsmith vote energised dormant anti-Tory voters who were reminded of why they do not like the party. It sort of happened in Oldham East too to an extent: the UKIP campaign actually got Labour voters to come out and vote.

    Agreed.

    Coming out for Leave was another Goldsmith blunder - London leans heavily to Remain and going for Leave lost him any chance of vocal support from business or the City.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con win Lincolnshire PCC. Last time it was won by an Independent who didn't stand again
  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Mike:

    UKIP back in 4th place in 2016 projected national vote share from BBC.
    Con 30
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    UKIP 12
    UKIP failed in goal of being 3rd

    Local election vote share is influenced by how many seats the Lib Dems and UKIP stand in. It does not necessarily reflect general election vote share when UKIP and Lib Dem stand in nearly all the seats.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822

    U-TURNNNNNNNNNNNNNN.....

    In a major concession over its controversial academy plans, the government has announced good or outstanding schools will no longer be forced to become academies.

    Osborne told to get back in his box.

    Good.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Indy hold Dorset PCC
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    dr_spyn said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 2m2 minutes ago
    The government has abandoned its plans to force all schools to become academies.

    Good day to bury some bad news.

    Does that include the Jedi Academy?????
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    dr_spyn said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 2m2 minutes ago
    The government has abandoned its plans to force all schools to become academies.

    Good day to bury some bad news.

    Good grief GO is now a serious drag on the ticket.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726

    Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.

    Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.

    However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.

    Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.

    It may also be the case that the Goldsmith vote energised dormant anti-Tory voters who were reminded of why they do not like the party. It sort of happened in Oldham East too to an extent: the UKIP campaign actually got Labour voters to come out and vote.

    Agreed.

    Coming out for Leave was another Goldsmith blunder - London leans heavily to Remain and going for Leave lost him any chance of vocal support from business or the City.
    Anti-Eu, anti-heathrow, less than pro uber, wrong side of all those arguments for London.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822

    Mike:

    UKIP back in 4th place in 2016 projected national vote share from BBC.
    Con 30
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    UKIP 12
    UKIP failed in goal of being 3rd

    Local election vote share is influenced by how many seats the Lib Dems and UKIP stand in. It does not necessarily reflect general election vote share when UKIP and Lib Dem stand in nearly all the seats.
    UKIP stood in more councils. LDs didn't have any candidates in 10% of councils at all.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054

    scotslass said:

    Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?

    On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.

    On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.

    Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.

    The good news for the SNP is that with the Tories in second place they'll have no trouble in getting their tax cutting agenda through the Parliament. Unlike other parts of the UK, Scotland has voted unequivocally for parties that believe the best way to grow the economy is to cut taxes for the better off, rather than raising them, and to squeeze the public services used by the poorest. It is now clearly the most right wing of the home nations. Whoever would have thought it?

    The SNP's most impressive trick is to convince people it is progressive or even left wing. This ought to provide an opening for SLAB to attack SNP as the party of the rich and big business.

    If you tell people what they want to hear they will often ignore what you actually do. But Scotland is a right of centre country today. There is absolutely no doubt about it.

  • pbr2013
    pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Is @pinkrose an @isam trolling account?
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724

    Bexley and Bromley GLA constituency


    Conservative 87460
    Labour 45791
    Ukip 30485
    Green 12685
    Lib Dem 12145
    APP 1243

    The truest, bluest part of Greater London?
    Compared with last time, Con minus 1K, Lab up 5K.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    TGOHF said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 2m2 minutes ago
    The government has abandoned its plans to force all schools to become academies.

    Good day to bury some bad news.

    Good grief GO is now a serious drag on the ticket.
    One consolation of a remain victory might be Osborne being moved.
  • Pauly
    Pauly Posts: 897
    edited May 2016

    Mike:

    UKIP back in 4th place in 2016 projected national vote share from BBC.
    Con 30
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    UKIP 12
    UKIP failed in goal of being 3rd

    Local election vote share is influenced by how many seats the Lib Dems and UKIP stand in. It does not necessarily reflect general election vote share when UKIP and Lib Dem stand in nearly all the seats.
    UKIP stood in more councils. LDs didn't have any candidates in 10% of councils at all.
    Is it still an unfair extrapolation because of full votes in areas where UKIP typically do worse, such as Scotland and London?
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Constant u-turns is an inevitable feature of a government with a majority of 12 and a glittering array of would-be divas on its backbenches.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822

    Con win Lincolnshire PCC. Last time it was won by an Independent who didn't stand again

    Have I missed Sussex or are we still waiting?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806

    Mike:

    UKIP back in 4th place in 2016 projected national vote share from BBC.
    Con 30
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    UKIP 12
    UKIP failed in goal of being 3rd

    Local election vote share is influenced by how many seats the Lib Dems and UKIP stand in. It does not necessarily reflect general election vote share when UKIP and Lib Dem stand in nearly all the seats.
    NESV takes into account that.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Constant u-turns is an inevitable feature of a government with a majority of 12 and a glittering array of would-be divas on its backbenches.

    The front bench seems to be the issue here.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726

    Constant u-turns is an inevitable feature of a government with a majority of 12 and a glittering array of would-be divas on its backbenches.

    On schools though it was a bloody stupid idea, with no real upside.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Still waiting.

    So far

    Labour held PCC for Durham, Cleveland and Northumbria
    Con held Northamptonshire, Wiltshire, Suffolk
    Indy held Dorset
    Con gained Lincolnshire from Ind

    Con win Lincolnshire PCC. Last time it was won by an Independent who didn't stand again

    Have I missed Sussex or are we still waiting?
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Con win Lincolnshire PCC. Last time it was won by an Independent who didn't stand again

    Have I missed Sussex or are we still waiting?
    I think we're still waiting, but I'd be gobsmacked if Katy Bourne doesn't get re-elected easily.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327

    U-TURNNNNNNNNNNNNNN.....

    In a major concession over its controversial academy plans, the government has announced good or outstanding schools will no longer be forced to become academies.

    Osborne told to get back in his box.

    If only Nicky Morgan had the balls to tell him where to go when he suggested it. Osborne's toadys are completely inept. Rudd, Morgan and Javid are completely incapable of being Secretaries of State.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Is there a place to follow just PCCs that gives you hold/gains?
  • No_Offence_Alan
    No_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,120

    U-TURNNNNNNNNNNNNNN.....

    In a major concession over its controversial academy plans, the government has announced good or outstanding schools will no longer be forced to become academies.

    Osborne told to get back in his box.

    But local authority schools are never good or outstanding in Osborne-land.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    at one point they fill be flashed here by BBC
    http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2016/police

    Is there a place to follow just PCCs that gives you hold/gains?

  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Constant u-turns is an inevitable feature of a government with a majority of 12 and a glittering array of would-be divas on its backbenches.

    On schools though it was a bloody stupid idea, with no real upside.
    Oh I completely agree. Sometimes the would-be divas are right.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    edited May 2016

    Constant u-turns is an inevitable feature of a government with a majority of 12 and a glittering array of would-be divas on its backbenches.

    I think the principal opponent to this policy lives next door to Mr Osborne.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    I think meh sums up results for everybody.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @holyroodmandy: @Ruth_E_Davidson says @theSNP must now govern not hector #SP16

    @holyroodmandy: @Ruth_E_Davidson urges @NicolaSturgeon to start new @ScotParl by ruling out a 2nd referendum #SP16

    I'm glad we've stopped talking about Independence.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    Yup. Is slightly worse than after the omnishambles budget.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SouthamObserver


    'Boris's legacy to London is a Labour mayor and a Labour assembly.'


    As the assembly needs a two-thirds majority to block any of the Mayor's policies, it's in realty just a talking shop and jobs for the boys.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    In Hampshire PCC contest
    Con and Lab go to round 2. Incumbent Indy eliminated.
    Con will win easily
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @aljwhite: Currently running a spread bet on how long it takes Ken to say Hitler. #bbcnews
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @holyroodmandy: @Ruth_E_Davidson says @theSNP must now govern not hector #SP16

    @holyroodmandy: @Ruth_E_Davidson urges @NicolaSturgeon to start new @ScotParl by ruling out a 2nd referendum #SP16

    I'm glad we've stopped talking about Independence.
    Davidson is asking Sturgeon to do just that.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    Yes, but for a split party Labour have let them off the hook. A better Labour leader would have put them to the sword and Dave would be in serious shit right now trying to explain that 300 losses aren't so bad.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724



    I think Khan fought an excellent campaign. One that Labour nationally would do well to emulate - plenty of outreach to potentially difficult and doubtful parts of the electorate.

    Boris's legacy to London is a Labour mayor and a Labour assembly.

    Yes, I agree - there were plenty of pitfalls and he avoided them all with a careful, positive and disciplined effort. I thought his comment of regret that Goldsmith, who he knew as a liberal cosmopolitan, had allowed his campaign to slip into anti-Muslim stereotyping was far better than if he'd denounced Goldsmith personally. It pretty much defused the issue.

    It's a lesson for Crosby and his mates - you can't win an election *only* by shouting "Islamist!" "friends with extremists!" and the like.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    I think meh sums up results for everybody.
    The almost total lack of council/seat changes in England as been really odd. Bar the odd upset where Kippers have picked up a few new ones, its SNAFU.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    I think meh sums up results for everybody.
    Good result for Khan though, as the numbers currently stand.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Who let Ken on the telly?? :p
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813

    Constant u-turns is an inevitable feature of a government with a majority of 12 and a glittering array of would-be divas on its backbenches.

    On schools though it was a bloody stupid idea, with no real upside.
    Oh I completely agree. Sometimes the would-be divas are right.
    The idea was piss poor for outstanding schools to become academies. I said so as much
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    SPIN have settled their seats market :)
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Pauly said:

    Mike:

    UKIP back in 4th place in 2016 projected national vote share from BBC.
    Con 30
    Lab 31
    LD 15
    UKIP 12
    UKIP failed in goal of being 3rd

    Local election vote share is influenced by how many seats the Lib Dems and UKIP stand in. It does not necessarily reflect general election vote share when UKIP and Lib Dem stand in nearly all the seats.
    UKIP stood in more councils. LDs didn't have any candidates in 10% of councils at all.
    Is it still an unfair extrapolation because of full votes in areas where UKIP typically do worse, such as Scotland and London?
    UKIP, though, will probably finish slightly ahead of the Lib Dems in London.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab hold South Yorkshire PCC on first preferences.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    MaxPB said:

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    Yes, but for a split party Labour have let them off the hook. A better Labour leader would have put them to the sword and Dave would be in serious shit right now trying to explain that 300 losses aren't so bad.

    Yep.

  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    "This is the worst conservative government since Major in the 90s"

    errrrr

    Under Major as PM the economy recovered from the recession of the early 1990s and a new monetary policy was put into effect after Black Wednesday. The basic rate of income tax was reduced from 25% to 23%, UK Government spending reduced as a percentage of GDP, and the budget deficit reduced from £50.8 billion in 1993 to £15.5 billion in 1997.

    A better record than under Cameron.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Anyone remember what the MoL second preference polling was?
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    Who let Ken on the telly?? :p

    The vote is already over. Anyway he attracts as many voters in London as he repels.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726



    I think Khan fought an excellent campaign. One that Labour nationally would do well to emulate - plenty of outreach to potentially difficult and doubtful parts of the electorate.

    Boris's legacy to London is a Labour mayor and a Labour assembly.

    Yes, I agree - there were plenty of pitfalls and he avoided them all with a careful, positive and disciplined effort. I thought his comment of regret that Goldsmith, who he knew as a liberal cosmopolitan, had allowed his campaign to slip into anti-Muslim stereotyping was far better than if he'd denounced Goldsmith personally. It pretty much defused the issue.

    It's a lesson for Crosby and his mates - you can't win an election *only* by shouting "Islamist!" "friends with extremists!" and the like.
    Not in London you can't no.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Sussex PCC Live Video

    https://www.periscope.tv/SussexPCC/1djGXDoqNPyGZ

    First Round Declaration coming up.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PaulBrandITV: Ken is definitely not talking about Hitler again on the BBC right now... not at all. #election2016
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    Looks like Lib Dems have gained Watford from NOC.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    RobD said:

    Who let Ken on the telly?? :p

    Are the embittered Blairites making a fuss again? They'll do anything to distract from the wave of Corbynism sweeping the nation.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ChrisMasonBBC: Ken Livingstone has been talking Hitler for about 5 minutes now on @bbcnews
  • Norm
    Norm Posts: 1,251
    In Kent PCC ELECTION: After the 1st round, UKIP's Henry Bolton (73,299) & Conservative Matthew Scott (88,396) proceed to the second preference count
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    I think meh sums up results for everybody.
    Good result for Khan though, as the numbers currently stand.
    This does lead to one question. If Labour is doing just as well / just as badly as in 2012, why is Khan winning so easily when Livingstone lost ?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    Scott_P said:

    @ChrisMasonBBC: Ken Livingstone has been talking Hitler for about 5 minutes now on @bbcnews

    Seriously....he must have been on the juice all day.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    I think meh sums up results for everybody.
    Good result for Khan though, as the numbers currently stand.
    This does lead to one question. If Labour is doing just as well / just as badly as in 2012, why is Khan winning so easily when Livingstone lost ?
    London has improved for Labour since 2012. The results in 2015 show that.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Big winner from last night is Ruth - meh results for everyone else
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    Yup. Is slightly worse than after the omnishambles budget.
    When the seats were last contested?
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132

    A swing of 3.5% since the General Election is equivalent to a 2% Conservative lead in England. It's an artificial exercise though, as so much of England didn't have local elections. The PCC elections may give some pointer as to how the parties were faring elsewhere.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    I think meh sums up results for everybody.
    Good result for Khan though, as the numbers currently stand.
    This does lead to one question. If Labour is doing just as well / just as badly as in 2012, why is Khan winning so easily when Livingstone lost ?
    Two words...Boris....Livingston....
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Tory and Labour into the 2nd round of the Sussex PCC election.

    Rock'n'roll.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Priceless Ken: "You've cost us seats all over the country."
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The London result looks to be a carbon copy of the GE result there.
  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    BBC Council results site is dire.

    Always used to be able to see gains or losses by council, now all you get is a link to the relevant council's homepage! Most of these don;t have "gain" or "loss" just who won.

    How pathetic.
  • anothernick
    anothernick Posts: 3,591
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    I think meh sums up results for everybody.
    Good result for Khan though, as the numbers currently stand.
    This does lead to one question. If Labour is doing just as well / just as badly as in 2012, why is Khan winning so easily when Livingstone lost ?
    In 2012 Livingstone's vote was appreciably less than that of the Labour assembly candidates. This year Khan's vote seems to be about the same.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549

    Is there a place to follow just PCCs that gives you hold/gains?

    People will never vote for these Politically Correct Commissioners.
  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited May 2016



    I think Khan fought an excellent campaign. One that Labour nationally would do well to emulate - plenty of outreach to potentially difficult and doubtful parts of the electorate.

    Boris's legacy to London is a Labour mayor and a Labour assembly.

    Yes, I agree - there were plenty of pitfalls and he avoided them all with a careful, positive and disciplined effort. I thought his comment of regret that Goldsmith, who he knew as a liberal cosmopolitan, had allowed his campaign to slip into anti-Muslim stereotyping was far better than if he'd denounced Goldsmith personally. It pretty much defused the issue.

    It's a lesson for Crosby and his mates - you can't win an election *only* by shouting "Islamist!" "friends with extremists!" and the like.
    We don't know the counterfactual. It might easily have been worse for Zac Goldsmith.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077

    Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.

    Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.

    However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.

    Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.

    It may also be the case that the Goldsmith vote energised dormant anti-Tory voters who were reminded of why they do not like the party. It sort of happened in Oldham East too to an extent: the UKIP campaign actually got Labour voters to come out and vote.

    Agreed.

    Coming out for Leave was another Goldsmith blunder - London leans heavily to Remain and going for Leave lost him any chance of vocal support from business or the City.
    Anti-Eu, anti-heathrow, less than pro uber, wrong side of all those arguments for London.
    http://www.gatwickobviously.com/
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GerriPeev: Handing Ken Livingstone a mic is like giving an alcoholic a bottle of Jack Daniel's.They can't help themselves & it's not good for the kids
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Rotherham Lab 48 UKIP 14 Ind 1 final figures

    several seats swopped both ways between UKIP and Lab but net change appears to be
    Con -1 UKIP plus 1
  • BigRich
    BigRich Posts: 3,492
    Ruth Davidson For Next Conservative Party Leader and Prime Minister

    RDFNCPLAPM
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    A substantial increase in PCC turnout, even if from dismal to very poor...
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    surbiton said:

    Is there a place to follow just PCCs that gives you hold/gains?

    People will never vote for these Politically Correct Commissioners.
    Turnout up across the board:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/police
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Yes, I agree - there were plenty of pitfalls and he avoided them all with a careful, positive and disciplined effort. I thought his comment of regret that Goldsmith, who he knew as a liberal cosmopolitan, had allowed his campaign to slip into anti-Muslim stereotyping was far better than if he'd denounced Goldsmith personally. It pretty much defused the issue.

    It's a lesson for Crosby and his mates - you can't win an election *only* by shouting "Islamist!" "friends with extremists!" and the like.

    Khan ran a very good campaign and was a good choice for Labour, albeit a bit dull. But Zac was even more dull, so that didn't matter.

    The 'friends with extremists' line never really caught on. Personally I was never convinced by it, the well-argued posts by Ms Cyclefree notwithstanding. I'm much more concerned about Sadiq's daft policies on housing and transport fares, but if Londoners want to vote for less housing and worse transport, who am I to complain?

    As @anothernick and @FrancisUrquhart pointed out, Zac managed to be on the wrong side of some crucial issues. I'm surprised his campaign wasn't better; he never really made the leap from what works in Richmond to what would work in London as a whole.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    I think meh sums up results for everybody.
    Good result for Khan though, as the numbers currently stand.
    This does lead to one question. If Labour is doing just as well / just as badly as in 2012, why is Khan winning so easily when Livingstone lost ?
    London has improved for Labour since 2012. The results in 2015 show that.

    London won the GLA vote in 2012, having lost it in 2008. The mayoral vote was Boris v Ken and having seen Ken in action over recent weeks perhaps a few more people will begin to understand why a lot of Labour voters could not put their X's next to Ken's name.

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    Scott_P said:

    @GerriPeev: Handing Ken Livingstone a mic is like giving an alcoholic a bottle of Jack Daniel's.They can't help themselves & it's not good for the kids

    That comment very close to the bone....
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054

    Scott_P said:

    @GerriPeev: Handing Ken Livingstone a mic is like giving an alcoholic a bottle of Jack Daniel's.They can't help themselves & it's not good for the kids

    That comment very close to the bone....

    Yep, Ken after lunch is very dangerous.

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726

    Yes, I agree - there were plenty of pitfalls and he avoided them all with a careful, positive and disciplined effort. I thought his comment of regret that Goldsmith, who he knew as a liberal cosmopolitan, had allowed his campaign to slip into anti-Muslim stereotyping was far better than if he'd denounced Goldsmith personally. It pretty much defused the issue.

    It's a lesson for Crosby and his mates - you can't win an election *only* by shouting "Islamist!" "friends with extremists!" and the like.

    Khan ran a very good campaign and was a good choice for Labour, albeit a bit dull. But Zac was even more dull, so that didn't matter.

    The 'friends with extremists' line never really caught on. Personally I was never convinced by it, the well-argued posts by Ms Cyclefree notwithstanding. I'm much more concerned about Sadiq's daft policies on housing and transport fares, but if Londoners want to vote for less housing and worse transport, who am I to complain?

    As @anothernick and @FrancisUrquhart pointed out, Zac managed to be on the wrong side of some crucial issues. I'm surprised his campaign wasn't better; he never really made the leap from what works in Richmond to what would work in London as a whole.
    Reason he couldn't make the leap out of Richmond...he got confused by the tube ;-)
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    I think meh sums up results for everybody.
    Good result for Khan though, as the numbers currently stand.
    This does lead to one question. If Labour is doing just as well / just as badly as in 2012, why is Khan winning so easily when Livingstone lost ?
    London has improved for Labour since 2012. The results in 2015 show that.

    London won the GLA vote in 2012, having lost it in 2008. The mayoral vote was Boris v Ken and having seen Ken in action over recent weeks perhaps a few more people will begin to understand why a lot of Labour voters could not put their X's next to Ken's name.

    I voted for Ken in 2000, voted against him in 2004 and 2008 and 2012.
  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Am I right in thinking that outside Scotland this is a pretty meh performance by the Tories too?

    I think meh sums up results for everybody.
    Good result for Khan though, as the numbers currently stand.
    This does lead to one question. If Labour is doing just as well / just as badly as in 2012, why is Khan winning so easily when Livingstone lost ?
    Khan is not up against Boris Johnson.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @katie_martin_fx: Ken says the Hitler controversy is fired up by Labour people "backed by the hedge funds".
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290

    Scott_P said:

    @GerriPeev: Handing Ken Livingstone a mic is like giving an alcoholic a bottle of Jack Daniel's.They can't help themselves & it's not good for the kids

    That comment very close to the bone....

    Yep, Ken after lunch is very dangerous.

    You could never accuse him of losing his bottle.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @surbiton


    'This does lead to one question. If Labour is doing just as well / just as badly as in 2012, why is Khan winning so easily when Livingstone lost ?'

    8 years of Livingstone and his assorted nutters.

    According to Prof Curtice Labour results excluding London are worse than in 2011 & 2012.

  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Just noticed that the Election Night 2015 coverage on iPlayer is no longer available.

    Shame. I have enjoyed flicking through it a few times over the past 12 months, particularly the "OMFG" moment at the stroke of 10pm when Dimbleby revealed the exit poll and nobody could quite believe what they were seeing. And then Paddy promising to eat his hat, literally, if the LDs finished with as few as 10 MPs...

    Is it available on DVD? :-)
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687

    U-TURNNNNNNNNNNNNNN.....

    In a major concession over its controversial academy plans, the government has announced good or outstanding schools will no longer be forced to become academies.

    Osborne told to get back in his box.

    But local authority schools are never good or outstanding in Osborne-land.
    As usual with Osborne this was purely political.

    It was about him finding a policy basis to cement an alliance with Gove post Brexit referendum.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    My comment about corbyn 2020 GE campaign only talking to the BBC (if they promise to be nice) & press tv the other day looking like it will be spot on. He already doesn't do sky news, telegraph, Daily mail
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Labour losses 25, Tory losses 20. Lib Dem gains 29. UKIP 24.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Jonathan said:

    Tory and Labour into the 2nd round of the Sussex PCC election.

    Rock'n'roll.

    Labour? Golly. His statement wasn't up to much IIRC.
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084

    Bexley and Bromley GLA constituency


    Conservative 87460
    Labour 45791
    Ukip 30485
    Green 12685
    Lib Dem 12145
    APP 1243

    I make it (% change from 2012)

    CON -6.5%
    LAB -0.1%
    UKIP +9.7%
    GRE +1.2%
    LD -0.4%
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609

    Just noticed that the Election Night 2015 coverage on iPlayer is no longer available.

    Shame. I have enjoyed flicking through it a few times over the past 12 months, particularly the "OMFG" moment at the stroke of 10pm when Dimbleby revealed the exit poll and nobody could quite believe what they were seeing. And then Paddy promising to eat his hat, literally, if the LDs finished with as few as 10 MPs...

    Is it available on DVD? :-)

    It is on youtube... preserved for the nation etc.... ;)
  • Wulfrun_Phil
    Wulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Livingstone from BBC News
    "Former London Mayor Ken Livingstone comments on the anti-Semitism row that engulfed Labour. He claims others in Labour made an issue of it and tells these critics: "You've cost us seats all over the country."

    They wouldn't have had the chance to fan the flames unless Livingstone had poured a great big can of petrol over an ember that seemed set to go out. He now accepts that the row cost Labour seats, yes is oblivious to his own role. The man is an utter liability to the party he purports to support.

  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    @katie_martin_fx: Ken says the Hitler controversy is fired up by Labour people "backed by the hedge funds".

    Is he wrong ?
This discussion has been closed.