Undefined discussion subject.
Comments
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Richard, with your knowledge on Ireland, can I commission a thread from you?Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear - the bog-cutting issue might not have been solved:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0506/786542-vote-for-taoiseach/
Irish General Election 2016: Why PR is the way to go0 -
According to many up in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
The Tories are antithesis of enlightenment, progress and tolerance? Ok, if you say so.KentRising said:Scotland's a far more enlightened country than England; progressive, tolerant, it has no truck with the Tor - ......sorry, what's that you say? 34 seats and the main opposition at Holyrood?
Maybe Scots will come down off their high horses now.
Well done Ruth, quite a feat. I was struck by how filled Twitter was last night with young and trendy Twitter types airing their support for Ruth and the Scottish Conservatives. Most unusual.0 -
Did you toss a coin to see who would convert to the other's religion ?pinkrose said:
WOW!!Beverley_C said:
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?pinkrose said:
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.0 -
He gives you your rights. How nice that must be for you.pinkrose said:
WOW!!Beverley_C said:
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?pinkrose said:
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.0 -
Say bye to that Tory majorityTheScreamingEagles said:@MichaelLCrick: West Yorkshire & Derbyshire police forces tell #c4news they will go to court to seek time extensions on election expense allegations
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Hmmmm, I'd have thought that if IndyRef2 was called pre 2020 then it would be far shorter than 10/1 for a Yes vote to actually occur as the SNP+others would have had to jump through hoops to call it.TGOHF said:http://www.scotsman.com/news/holyrood-2016-odds-for-indyref-2-increase-1-412081
"THE ODDS of an independent Scotland have taken a nosedive after the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood in the election, according to bookmaker Ladbrokes."
"Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes said: “A pretty bad night for Labour in Scotland, but also a costly one for those backing an SNP majority and the chances of an independent Scotland any time soon.”
The odds of a another independence referendum before 2020 are now 5/1, with 10/1 odds of Scots voting Yes in such a scenario."0 -
Sturgeon rules out forming a coalition.0
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Barry Coppinger reelected as PCC for Cleveland by 16k votes0
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Yeah, right!TheScreamingEagles said:
Richard, with your knowledge on Ireland, can I commission a thread from you?Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear - the bog-cutting issue might not have been solved:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0506/786542-vote-for-taoiseach/
Irish General Election 2016: Why PR is the way to go0 -
its a double - referendum called and won for yes.Alistair said:
Hmmmm, I'd have thought that if IndyRef2 was called pre 2020 then it would be far shorter than 10/1 for a Yes vote to actually occur as the SNP+others would have had to jump through hoops to call it.TGOHF said:http://www.scotsman.com/news/holyrood-2016-odds-for-indyref-2-increase-1-412081
"THE ODDS of an independent Scotland have taken a nosedive after the SNP lost their majority at Holyrood in the election, according to bookmaker Ladbrokes."
"Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes said: “A pretty bad night for Labour in Scotland, but also a costly one for those backing an SNP majority and the chances of an independent Scotland any time soon.”
The odds of a another independence referendum before 2020 are now 5/1, with 10/1 odds of Scots voting Yes in such a scenario."
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Heads she became Muslim, tails she became Muslim was probably more like it.TGOHF said:
Did you toss a coin to see who would convert to the other's religion ?pinkrose said:
WOW!!Beverley_C said:
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?pinkrose said:
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.0 -
yeah it is.MaxPB said:
He gives you your rights. How nice that must be for you.pinkrose said:
WOW!!Beverley_C said:
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?pinkrose said:
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.
he provides food, clothing and shelter, supports me studying for my degree, educates me in Islam, tries to teach me Arabic (lol), respects me etc0 -
While I salute your indefatigability, you do appear to be heading down the plug hole of seeing the past as providing some sort of infallible guide to the future. As much as I'd love that to be the case, and I have some pretty good history qualifications, I don't rate myself as a seer. It's as laughable as HYFUD setting out in detail why labour will win the 2025 election and Umanna will be PM.justin124 said:
I am sure the NESV could still be done for those earlier years but a significantly different model to arrive at the result would be needed. Because the results now go some way back they have little inclination to invest the necessary time and resources. Nevertheless it would not be that difficult for them to check that in 1960 and 1961 the Labour Opposition party lost several hundred seats to Macmillan's Tory Govt. We don't need NESV to establish that! Similarly Labour made big gains at the 1952 locals but still failed to win the 1955 election. At the May 1970 locals Labour gained circa 500 seats from the Tories but still lost the General Election five weeks later.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've told you before why they use post 1973/74 onwards.justin124 said:No I am not - though I do not think the likes of Laura Kuensberg do - nor indeed most politicians. I am confident that, if given the opportunity of drawing Curtice & Thrasher's attention to these earlier examples , they would accept the point.These are historical electoral facts - I am not making them up! For whatever reason, they have decided on a starting point of 1973/74 Reform of Local Government and for reasons best known to themselves have chosen to ignore earlier data. In no way does that make it invalid to refer to the earlier results.
I may try to send them an email on this - because it is seriously misleading.If political anoraks on here are swallowing that line what hope is there for the public at large?.
Prior to that there were many more council seats up for election, and you can't extrapolate accurate NESV prior to 73/74.
Post 1973/74 Council seat losses/gains combined with NESV gives much more accurate barometer for future general election predictions.
But Rallings, Thrasher, and Curtice have only been studying this for decades, what do they know?0 -
SKY News has basically ignored Wales compared to Scotland.0
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And that is the whole point - having given up that which was by given by right of having been born or a naturalised citizen of Britain, it must first be assumed taken before it can be returned by another person in the name of religion.MaxPB said:
He gives you your rights. How nice that must be for you.pinkrose said:
WOW!!Beverley_C said:
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?pinkrose said:
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.0 -
You have the zeal of the convert, that's for sure.pinkrose said:
WOW!!Beverley_C said:
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?pinkrose said:
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.0 -
63 seats is far more than wot the SNP got in 2007.TheScreamingEagles said:Sturgeon rules out forming a coalition.
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I suspect they don't think it's as sexy as Scotland Labour problems. A great pity.AndreaParma_82 said:SKY News has basically ignored Wales compared to Scotland.
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Sounds like a fun kind of person. Soon enough he'll be driving you around, no need for you to have your own car. He'll probably keep your passport safe too, just so no one can steal it.pinkrose said:
yeah it is.MaxPB said:
He gives you your rights. How nice that must be for you.pinkrose said:
WOW!!Beverley_C said:
Oh I see... because I am a white, non-muslim woman I should just shut the f*** up because having my muslim friend sit in tears describing the utter s**t she and her sister have to put up with is none of my business?pinkrose said:
If the answer to both is no then no-one is telling you what you can wear, who you can marry, who you can talk to and where you can go.
Basically, I should look the other way and pay no attention? Walk on by....
Your views would do credit to some of the biggest slimebags in human history, but they have no place in the modern world.
Calm down, you are a bit ott!
No-one has told you to shut the f up. Ive been to the point and challenged what you say in a polite way. If your muslim friends have experienced what you say then that is terrible but women of all colours, creeds experience oppression and abuse.
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men and there are some bad ones in society but there are bad men and women of all faiths and none. I am a white convert married to an Algerian man, who is wonderful and he gives me my rights and fulfills his responsibilities in Islam towards me and i do the same in return.
Dont get bitter and hateful, it wont be of any help to your friends. All the best.
he provides food, clothing and shelter, supports me studying for my degree, educates me in Islam, tries to teach me Arabic (lol), respects me etc0 -
I'll have a go.Plato_Says said:
What happens on 23rd June will throw everything up in the air. I'm not sure we can crystal ball any of this.MaxPB said:Welsh Labour could be in for a massive beat down next time out, they have hung on by the skin of their teeth in loads of constituencies. If the referendum hadn't split the Tories and UKIP didn't have their heads up their own arses it would have been very bad for Labour in Wales. Next time out itay be devastating for them like it has been on Scotland.
Remain wins. Cameron remains. Life goes on.
Europhobes/UKIPPers will continue ranting and railing. But life will go on.
Business as usual.0 -
@tnewtondunn: Of all the party leaders, Cameron is the clear winner from #SuperThursday. Harder to see a post #EUref leader bid when Tories still gaining.0
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The veiled squirrel to distract pb from Labour's awful night at the ballot box.0
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Which councils have changed control? Tories lost Worcester IIRC, gained Peterborough - but I've gone blank about the rest.0
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The swings in Wales are all over the place, in all different directions, almost at random.Plato_Says said:
I suspect they don't think it's as sexy as Scotland Labour problems. A great pity.AndreaParma_82 said:SKY News has basically ignored Wales compared to Scotland.
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That's the outline for the thread I've written for SundayBob__Sykes said:
I'll have a go.Plato_Says said:
What happens on 23rd June will throw everything up in the air. I'm not sure we can crystal ball any of this.MaxPB said:Welsh Labour could be in for a massive beat down next time out, they have hung on by the skin of their teeth in loads of constituencies. If the referendum hadn't split the Tories and UKIP didn't have their heads up their own arses it would have been very bad for Labour in Wales. Next time out itay be devastating for them like it has been on Scotland.
Remain wins. Cameron remains. Life goes on.
Europhobes/UKIPPers will continue ranting and railing. But life will go on.
Business as usual.
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Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?
On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.
On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.
Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.0 -
Didn't only one constituency change hands (Lab to PC)?AndreaParma_82 said:The swings in Wales are all over the place, in all different directions, almost at random.
Plato_Says said:
I suspect they don't think it's as sexy as Scotland Labour problems. A great pity.AndreaParma_82 said:SKY News has basically ignored Wales compared to Scotland.
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I'm pretty sure the 75% plus (i.e. the vast majority) that voted for parties other than the Cons & UKIP still think that.KentRising said:
According to many up in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
The Tories are antithesis of enlightenment, progress and tolerance? Ok, if you say so.KentRising said:Scotland's a far more enlightened country than England; progressive, tolerant, it has no truck with the Tor - ......sorry, what's that you say? 34 seats and the main opposition at Holyrood?
Maybe Scots will come down off their high horses now.
Well done Ruth, quite a feat. I was struck by how filled Twitter was last night with young and trendy Twitter types airing their support for Ruth and the Scottish Conservatives. Most unusual.0 -
Mike:
UKIP back in 4th place in 2016 projected national vote share from BBC.
Con 30
Lab 31
LD 15
UKIP 12
UKIP failed in goal of being 3rd0 -
The SNP are in a worse position than they were yesterday.
VICTORY shout the Zoomers...
Awesome.0 -
Does MG actually live in Scotland..claims a victory for the SNP..they lost the Overall Majority..it stuffs them...What price now for Independence..Child Minders from birth to 18..Tax rises..roll on more victories for the SNP..0
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@BrianSpanner1: Indyref2 https://t.co/7u65Ln5w3CTGOHF said:Good job of spinning it but last night killed Sindy dead until after 2020 at the earliest.
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She'd have had to be a moron to go for a coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:Sturgeon rules out forming a coalition.
"Hey SNP/Green voters don't worry your green budies get into government anyways, feel free to keep voting that way"0 -
Malcolm is a resident of Ayrshire - and he's awoken to SCON Hold in his home seat.richardDodd said:Does MG actually live in Scotland..claims a victory for the SNP..they lost the Overall Majority..it stuffs them...What price now for Independence..Child Minders from birth to 18..Tax rises..roll on more victories for the SNP..
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Result! Seventy days after the election, Enda Kenny voted in as Taoiseach 59-49, FF and several indies abstained. Minority FG government, with indies to be given cabinet seats.
Edit: That's just one vote to spare, he needed 58 to be re-elected.0 -
Yes. Leann Wood took the Rhonda from 20+% behind to a majority of 15% for Plaid. Plaid got double digits swings in Blaenau Gwent and Cardiff West. But then they failed to gain Llanelli where Labour was defending a majority of less than 100 votes.
Conservatives got good swings in their favour in Wrexham and Vale of Clwyd but not in Clwyd South or Delyn. Cardiff North was an increased Labour majority (even if at the beginning of the night Julie Morgan was almost conceding defeat). The Labour woman in Vale of Glamorgan continues to survive for mysterious reasons.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't only one constituency change hands (Lab to PC)?AndreaParma_82 said:The swings in Wales are all over the place, in all different directions, almost at random.
Plato_Says said:
I suspect they don't think it's as sexy as Scotland Labour problems. A great pity.AndreaParma_82 said:SKY News has basically ignored Wales compared to Scotland.
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pinkrose said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33424644oxfordsimon said:
What evidence do you have that Muslims are breaking the law and not being investigated or prosecuted because of cultural norms?pinkrose said:
But Muslims are breaking the law - and their crimes are not being investigated/prosecuted because of 'cultural norms'oxfordsimon said:
Well Islam has been practised since the 7th century and is part of modern Britain. Its not going anywhere and is not only here to stay but is growing due to demographics, converts and immigration.pinkrose said:Beverley_C said:Sean_F said:
In fact, non-Muslims have single-sex schools, colleges, and loads of single-sex clubs and societies. I see no reason why they should be outlawed. If people wish to socialise with members of the same sex, or believe their child will benefit from a single sex education, I say let them.
The fact that there are rules about what women have to wear and who they can interact with shows the problem with Islam
Acting in accordance with a set of archaic rules - drawn up by men to control women - does not strike me as something anyone should accept. And given the cultural of oppression, it is clearly not the case that all Muslim women are acting on their free will.
Any faith that condones honour violence is not one that deserves respect.
As Trevor Philips say, Islam will not change and Muslims will not integrate how other minorities have done in the past. So it really doesn't matter what non muslims think or say, as long as Muslims are not breaking the law, live and let live.
And yes, this does extend to honour killings and related violence.
We need to be honest about this - and find ways so that our criminal justice system takes no notice of faith and just brings perpetrators to trial.
Im talking about now in 2016. Rotherham and other sex abuse scandals are a failure of police and social services in the past. But men of all races and religions have committed sex abuse scandals that have been covered up or not investigated...Jimmy Saville, catholic priests, politicians, care workers?
My posts today have been in relation to someone originally saying that guidelines issued by a mosque are "appallingly subjugating muslim women" which is just wrong.
We are in a tip-of-the-iceberg country with the subject of HRV - and I acknowledge that it is not just restricted to Muslim communities, but it is more prevalent there.0 -
Best performance at these elections. MI5 again, tremendous effort to deny the SNP a majority .Scott_P said:The SNP are in a worse position than they were yesterday.
VICTORY shout the Zoomers...
Awesome.0 -
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Many people get for and to confused...FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought Khan was going to stand up to extremists?Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Jeremy Corbyn WILL be joining Sadiq Khan for victory celebrations if he wins the London mayoralty: https://t.co/ZxytUpNhS9
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Plus it would have pulled her further to the left leaving the middle ground open for the Tories.Alistair said:
She'd have had to be a moron to go for a coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:Sturgeon rules out forming a coalition.
"Hey SNP/Green voters don't worry your green budies get into government anyways, feel free to keep voting that way"0 -
Salford mayoral election
Labour candidate polled 49.56%. Now going into second round but it's hardly breathtaking
Lab 24,209
Con 11,810
UKIP 8,668
Green Party 4,1580 -
You're okay with reproducing tweets from an anonymous troll who routinely calls women politicians c*nts?Scott_P said:0 -
@IanDunt: The SNP's overly tribal campaign will make cooperation with other parties in Holyrood rather difficult https://t.co/AiFWMKSWXK0
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Yeah, it's not as if the greens are going to vote down the Land reform bill for not being radical enough.MaxPB said:
Plus it would have pulled her further to the left leaving the middle ground open for the Tories.Alistair said:
She'd have had to be a moron to go for a coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:Sturgeon rules out forming a coalition.
"Hey SNP/Green voters don't worry your green budies get into government anyways, feel free to keep voting that way"
Absolutely no advantage to go into a coalition.0 -
BBC NEV share Lab 31 Con 30 LD 15 UKIP 12 Others 12
Lib Dems beat UKIP , AndyJS to eat his hat0 -
Kent Police & Crime Commissioner is a straight fight between UKIP and Con and is going to second preference, if anyone cares.
http://www.courier.co.uk/Kent-Police-Crime-Commissioner-election-results/story-29237883-detail/story.html
UKIP winning East Kent (Shepway, Swale, Thanet etc), Con West, basically.
Turnout at 21.5%, up from 15% last time. PCC fever sweeping the nation?0 -
The McMugabe bill ?Alistair said:
Yeah, it's not as if the greens are going to vote down the Land reform bill for not being radical enough.MaxPB said:
Plus it would have pulled her further to the left leaving the middle ground open for the Tories.Alistair said:
She'd have had to be a moron to go for a coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:Sturgeon rules out forming a coalition.
"Hey SNP/Green voters don't worry your green budies get into government anyways, feel free to keep voting that way"
Absolutely no advantage to go into a coalition.0 -
West Midlands PCC
Jamieson (Lab) 275672
Jones (Con) 142651
Durnell (UKIP) 93851
Flynn (Ind) 404780 -
There's no doubt that this was the first good election result for the LibDems for six years.MarkSenior said:BBC NEV share Lab 31 Con 30 LD 15 UKIP 12 Others 12
Lib Dems beat UKIP , AndyJS to eat his hat0 -
That one is done I thought, the next one is public register of who owns land.TGOHF said:
The McMugabe bill ?Alistair said:
Yeah, it's not as if the greens are going to vote down the Land reform bill for not being radical enough.MaxPB said:
Plus it would have pulled her further to the left leaving the middle ground open for the Tories.Alistair said:
She'd have had to be a moron to go for a coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:Sturgeon rules out forming a coalition.
"Hey SNP/Green voters don't worry your green budies get into government anyways, feel free to keep voting that way"
Absolutely no advantage to go into a coalition.0 -
A judge in the German city of Cologne has dismissed sexual assault charges against an Algerian man, in the first case over a wave of New Year attacks.
A court spokesman told the BBC "it could not be proven" that the 26-year-old took part in the sexual assault.
He and a fellow Algerian, 23, were convicted of theft and were both given a six month suspended sentence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36225561
That will learn them...NOT...0 -
And still not much to write home about, despite some headline grabbing good results. Tough times.rcs1000 said:
There's no doubt that this was the first good election result for the LibDems for six years.MarkSenior said:BBC NEV share Lab 31 Con 30 LD 15 UKIP 12 Others 12
Lib Dems beat UKIP , AndyJS to eat his hat0 -
Hasn't there been a lot of controversy in Kent?KentRising said:Kent Police & Crime Commissioner is a straight fight between UKIP and Con and is going to second preference, if anyone cares.
http://www.courier.co.uk/Kent-Police-Crime-Commissioner-election-results/story-29237883-detail/story.html
UKIP winning East Kent (Shepway, Swale, Thanet etc), Con West, basically.
Turnout at 20%, up from 16% last time. PCC fever sweeping the nation?0 -
2011 38 37 16MarkSenior said:BBC NEV share Lab 31 Con 30 LD 15 UKIP 12 Others 12
Lib Dems beat UKIP , AndyJS to eat his hat
2012 33 39 15
2013 26 29 13 22
2014 30 31 11 18
2015 36 32 10 12
2016 30 31 15 12
Just for a touch of context.0 -
Like Zoomers on my timelineTheuniondivvie said:anonymous troll who routinely calls women politicians c*nts?
Every time a Tory female politician appears on TV0 -
So you approve of them doing that? Fair enough.Scott_P said:
Like Zoomers on my timelineTheuniondivvie said:anonymous troll who routinely calls women politicians c*nts?
Every time a Tory female politician appears on TV0 -
Corbynism sweeping the nation....BannedInParis said:
2011 38 37 16MarkSenior said:BBC NEV share Lab 31 Con 30 LD 15 UKIP 12 Others 12
Lib Dems beat UKIP , AndyJS to eat his hat
2012 33 39 15
2013 26 29 13 22
2014 30 31 11 18
2015 36 32 10 12
2016 30 31 15 12
Just for a touch of context.0 -
Plato..re MG..It couldn't happen to a nicer turnip topper..he is probably googling estate agents as we speak for a nice bungalow in Eastbourne0
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Labour at 36 seats so far in Rotherham. Sure to keep the majority as 63 is the total number of Cllrs.0
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I don't pretend to be a sanctimonious twit like youTheuniondivvie said:So you approve of them doing that?
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No I do not have a problem with muslim men. I do have a problem with any person, system, law or religion that fails to recognise that people have equal rights regardless of gender, colour or sexuality.pinkrose said:
It seems to me you have an issue with Muslim men
If you wish to live your life according to the tenets of Islam then that is your right and I wish you all happiness in doing so, but you cannot expect special exceptions for Islam if it clashes with the laws of the land.
And before you say I am attacking Islam I should point out that the same should be true for ALL religions and I think that Christianity should be disestablished as the religion of the UK. Religion is a personal choice and anyone can convert or join or leave at any time. It is not something anyone is stuck with so I see no reason to give any religion exceptions.0 -
Nope, you're the real thing alright.Scott_P said:
I don't pretend to be a sanctimonious twit like youTheuniondivvie said:So you approve of them doing that?
0 -
Ann Barnes, independent, the PCC 2012-16, was a bit up and down: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-36096448Plato_Says said:
Hasn't there been a lot of controversy in Kent?KentRising said:Kent Police & Crime Commissioner is a straight fight between UKIP and Con and is going to second preference, if anyone cares.
http://www.courier.co.uk/Kent-Police-Crime-Commissioner-election-results/story-29237883-detail/story.html
UKIP winning East Kent (Shepway, Swale, Thanet etc), Con West, basically.
Turnout at 20%, up from 16% last time. PCC fever sweeping the nation?
UKIP ploughed in a lot of money this time, I sense. They were the only guys I got stuff through the door from, and there were big wrap ads on Kent websites.
Looks like it'll be a Con win though, helped by local elections going on in Tunbridge Wells at the same time. Big lead for the Con guy there where it's pretty tight either way elsewhere:
Henry Bolton (Ukip): 4,522; David Naghi (LD): 2,837; Tristan Osborne (Lab): 3,909; Gurvinder Sandher (Ind): 2,444; Matthew Scott (Con): 10,569; Steve Uncles (ED): 569.
0 -
@Labour_Celts: Brilliant analysis by @johnmcternan
on SNP & a 2nd referendum they ain't interested in having!
https://t.co/fdRf8mROb60 -
The 21 year old Green boy made it in West of Scotland list becoming the youngest MSP ever
http://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/7284912108311060520 -
I think you misunderstand my last post. I do NOT see the results of Local Elections in Year 1 of a Parliament as much of a guide to a General Election four years later .- and what is more they never have been.matt said:
While I salute your indefatigability, you do appear to be heading down the plug hole of seeing the past as providing some sort of infallible guide to the future. As much as I'd love that to be the case, and I have some pretty good history qualifications, I don't rate myself as a seer. It's as laughable as HYFUD setting out in detail why labour will win the 2025 election and Umanna will be PM.justin124 said:
I am sure the NESV could still be done for those earlier years but a significantly different model to arrive at the result would be needed. Because the results now go some way back they have little inclination to invest the necessary time and resources. Nevertheless it would not be that difficult for them to check that in 1960 and 1961 the Labour Opposition party lost several hundred seats to Macmillan's Tory Govt. We don't need NESV to establish that! Similarly Labour made big gains at the 1952 locals but still failed to win the 1955 election. At the May 1970 locals Labour gained circa 500 seats from the Tories but still lost the General Election five weeks later.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've told you before why they use post 1973/74 onwards.justin124 said:No I am not - though I do not think the likes of Laura Kuensberg do - nor indeed most politicians. I am confident that, if given the opportunity of drawing Curtice & Thrasher's attention to these earlier examples , they would accept the point.These are historical electoral facts - I am not making them up! For whatever reason, they have decided on a starting point of 1973/74 Reform of Local Government and for reasons best known to themselves have chosen to ignore earlier data. In no way does that make it invalid to refer to the earlier results.
I may try to send them an email on this - because it is seriously misleading.If political anoraks on here are swallowing that line what hope is there for the public at large?.
Prior to that there were many more council seats up for election, and you can't extrapolate accurate NESV prior to 73/74.
Post 1973/74 Council seat losses/gains combined with NESV gives much more accurate barometer for future general election predictions.
But Rallings, Thrasher, and Curtice have only been studying this for decades, what do they know?0 -
"This is the worst conservative government since Major in the 90s"
errrrr0 -
Scott at long last you got your Scon surge.Scott_P said:@Labour_Celts: Brilliant analysis by @johnmcternan
on SNP & a 2nd referendum they ain't interested in having!
https://t.co/fdRf8mROb6
Congrats to Conservatives in Scotland :-)0 -
The good news for the SNP is that with the Tories in second place they'll have no trouble in getting their tax cutting agenda through the Parliament. Unlike other parts of the UK, Scotland has voted unequivocally for parties that believe the best way to grow the economy is to cut taxes for the better off, rather than raising them, and to squeeze the public services used by the poorest. It is now clearly the most right wing of the home nations. Whoever would have thought it?scotslass said:Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?
On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.
On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.
Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.
0 -
I am sure 2015 was 37C 31L 8Lib 13 UKIP.BannedInParis said:
2011 38 37 16MarkSenior said:BBC NEV share Lab 31 Con 30 LD 15 UKIP 12 Others 12
Lib Dems beat UKIP , AndyJS to eat his hat
2012 33 39 15
2013 26 29 13 22
2014 30 31 11 18
2015 36 32 10 12
2016 30 31 15 12
Just for a touch of context.
If yesterday's results happened last year, there would have been a hung parliament.0 -
Just to say, as a proportion of seats being defended, the Tories have suffered a bigger loss than Labour in the English council elections (using BBC numbers).0
-
It is based on the local election results.surbiton said:
I am sure 2015 was 37C 31L 8Lib 13 UKIP.BannedInParis said:
2011 38 37 16MarkSenior said:BBC NEV share Lab 31 Con 30 LD 15 UKIP 12 Others 12
Lib Dems beat UKIP , AndyJS to eat his hat
2012 33 39 15
2013 26 29 13 22
2014 30 31 11 18
2015 36 32 10 12
2016 30 31 15 12
Just for a touch of context.
If yesterday's results happened last year, there would have been a hung parliament.
I used
https://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/English Local Elections Update - PSA Media Briefing Pack.pdf
So if 2016 uses a different methodology, I do apologise0 -
Camden, Haringey, Lewisham still behind with the count.0
-
OK. Understood.BannedInParis said:
It is based on the local election results.surbiton said:
I am sure 2015 was 37C 31L 8Lib 13 UKIP.BannedInParis said:
2011 38 37 16MarkSenior said:BBC NEV share Lab 31 Con 30 LD 15 UKIP 12 Others 12
Lib Dems beat UKIP , AndyJS to eat his hat
2012 33 39 15
2013 26 29 13 22
2014 30 31 11 18
2015 36 32 10 12
2016 30 31 15 12
Just for a touch of context.
If yesterday's results happened last year, there would have been a hung parliament.
I used
https://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/English Local Elections Update - PSA Media Briefing Pack.pdf
So if 2016 uses a different methodology, I do apologise0 -
Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.0
-
Suffolk PCC result
Tim Passmore (Con) 68,093
Cath Pickles (Lab) 41,6310 -
"But the idea that Jeremy Corbyn makes traditional Labour voters reach for the smelling salts or to change allegiance has no substance as yet. Those Labour supporters, so noisy in the media and on Twitter, who are appalled with him and have sat on their hands or changed sides seem to be a small minority.
"This is the single most important point to be deduced so far."
The first part of this section - 'there is no evidence that ...' - is good analysis. However, the assumption that because people are happy to vote Labour in local or regional elections, where Corbyn is not on the ticket and a vote for Labour cannot change Corbyn's impact on actual governance anywhere, is just that, an assumption with no evidence.
So to jump from that correct first sentence to the conclusion that Corbyn WILL HAVE NO IMPACT on a GE is a massive one which clearly does not warrant the 'single most important point' label.0 -
So what was all the 'london torys looking chipper' and 'too close to call' stuff from the Tory rampers about?
We're in the strange situation where the Scottish Tory Surgers were actually right and the supposedly finger-on-the-pulse sources on the ground in England (inc London) were full of it?0 -
Which gives Labour post-2020 a glimmer of hope. If, by some miracle, Labour are the largest party in Westminster but without a majority, they can just plough on as a minority government and dare the SNP to vote with the Tories.Scott_P said:@IanDunt: The SNP's overly tribal campaign will make cooperation with other parties in Holyrood rather difficult https://t.co/AiFWMKSWXK
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Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.NickPalmer said:Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.
Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.0 -
I have always thought that all those lost Scottish Tory voters did not cease to hold conservative views on things like economics or law and order. They were either voting to support independence or to show their disgust for the Tory party. At some point, it was inevitable that the conservative policies would reappear.SouthamObserver said:
The good news for the SNP is that with the Tories in second place they'll have no trouble in getting their tax cutting agenda through the Parliament. Unlike other parts of the UK, Scotland has voted unequivocally for parties that believe the best way to grow the economy is to cut taxes for the better off, rather than raising them, and to squeeze the public services used by the poorest. It is now clearly the most right wing of the home nations. Whoever would have thought it?scotslass said:Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?
On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.
On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.
Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.0 -
It was quite bizarre and I don't think anybody really seriously bought it.JWisemann said:So what was all the 'london torys looking chipper' and 'too close to call' stuff from the Tory rampers about?
We're in the strange situation where the Scottish Tory Surgers were actually right and the supposedly finger-on-the-pulse sources on the ground in England (inc London) were full of it?0 -
*brilliant*Scott_P said:@Labour_Celts: Brilliant analysis by @johnmcternan
on SNP & a 2nd referendum they ain't interested in having!
https://t.co/fdRf8mROb6
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/4419596527426641920 -
I think Khan fought an excellent campaign. One that Labour nationally would do well to emulate - plenty of outreach to potentially difficult and doubtful parts of the electorate.NickPalmer said:Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
Boris's legacy to London is a Labour mayor and a Labour assembly.
0 -
Actually, it's the "Havering and" part that will keep the Redbridge seat blueNickPalmer said:Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
0 -
I'm not jumping to that conclusion. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.MTimT said:"But the idea that Jeremy Corbyn makes traditional Labour voters reach for the smelling salts or to change allegiance has no substance as yet. Those Labour supporters, so noisy in the media and on Twitter, who are appalled with him and have sat on their hands or changed sides seem to be a small minority.
"This is the single most important point to be deduced so far."
The first part of this section - 'there is no evidence that ...' - is good analysis. However, the assumption that because people are happy to vote Labour in local or regional elections, where Corbyn is not on the ticket and a vote for Labour cannot change Corbyn's impact on actual governance anywhere, is just that, an assumption with no evidence.
So to jump from that correct first sentence to the conclusion that Corbyn WILL HAVE NO IMPACT on a GE is a massive one which clearly does not warrant the 'single most important point' label.
You often hear it suggested that Labour always do worse than their polling, particularly in subsidiary elections. Not on this occasion they didn't (not south of the river Tweed anyway). That suggests either that polling has improved or that Labour have improved the motivation of their supporters. That deduction is potentially important for future by-elections and how to interpret future polls.
I make no assumptions about 2020. For what it's worth, my view is still that if Jeremy Corbyn is still Labour leader at the next general election, he will be a one ton lead weight around the party's neck. I'm much more prepared to be proved wrong after yesterday, however.0 -
The SNP's most impressive trick is to convince people it is progressive or even left wing. This ought to provide an opening for SLAB to attack SNP as the party of the rich and big business.SouthamObserver said:
The good news for the SNP is that with the Tories in second place they'll have no trouble in getting their tax cutting agenda through the Parliament. Unlike other parts of the UK, Scotland has voted unequivocally for parties that believe the best way to grow the economy is to cut taxes for the better off, rather than raising them, and to squeeze the public services used by the poorest. It is now clearly the most right wing of the home nations. Whoever would have thought it?scotslass said:Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?
On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.
On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.
Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.0 -
I imagine a lot of SNP votes were and probably still are anti-Labour votes.MTimT said:
I have always thought that all those lost Scottish Tory voters did not cease to hold conservative views on things like economics or law and order. They were either voting to support independence or to show their disgust for the Tory party. At some point, it was inevitable that the conservative policies would reappear.SouthamObserver said:
The good news for the SNP is that with the Tories in second place they'll have no trouble in getting their tax cutting agenda through the Parliament. Unlike other parts of the UK, Scotland has voted unequivocally for parties that believe the best way to grow the economy is to cut taxes for the better off, rather than raising them, and to squeeze the public services used by the poorest. It is now clearly the most right wing of the home nations. Whoever would have thought it?scotslass said:Getting 47 per cent of the vote but no majority compared to Cameron's 37 per cent with a majority. Which would you have?
On governing Sturgeon will have no problem. Limit legislation, maximise intitiatives and put the other parties on the spot. Salmond did it with 47 for four years between 2007-2011. Sturgeon will do it with 63 for five.
On independence she still has an indy majority in the Parliament and Greens have just confirmed it in the same language of popular demand that Sturgeon uses.
Ironically the Greens are running on SNP petrol rather than their own wind power in the second vote. If they start to go cool on independence then they will be back in their two seat box in the next parliament.
0 -
Bexley and Bromley GLA constituency
Conservative 87460
Labour 45791
Ukip 30485
Green 12685
Lib Dem 12145
APP 12430 -
The truest, bluest part of Greater London?AndreaParma_82 said:Bexley and Bromley GLA constituency
Conservative 87460
Labour 45791
Ukip 30485
Green 12685
Lib Dem 12145
APP 12430 -
By number of councillors won/lost so far:
Lib Dem +29
UKIP +22
Residents +4
All others in negative territory.0 -
It may also be the case that the Goldsmith vote energised dormant anti-Tory voters who were reminded of why they do not like the party. It sort of happened in Oldham East too to an extent: the UKIP campaign actually got Labour voters to come out and vote.anothernick said:
Anecdotally I did meet a few Labour voters on the doorstep yesterday in inner London who said they weren't voting for Khan.NickPalmer said:Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
However I also met a large number of very enthusiastic Khan supporters who hadn't always voted in the past and some who were splitting their vote - including one who said she has voted for Khan as Mayor and UKIP in the party list! In the event the two trends seem to have balanced each other, leaving Khan on roughly the same vote share as the Party.
Universal view was that Goldsmith had fought a poor campaign, completely failed to play to his strengths on the environment etc and recipients of the "family jewelry" letters felt insulted and angry.
0 -
And it was on a shoestring budget too - far fewer leaflets than last time and even when we got them there were never enough to go round.SouthamObserver said:
I think Khan fought an excellent campaign. One that Labour nationally would do well to emulate - plenty of outreach to potentially difficult and doubtful parts of the electorate.NickPalmer said:Dismore now comfortably ahead for Labour in Brent and Harrow. Merton and Wandsworth still looking like a Labour gain on a slim margin (about a 3,5-4% swing to Labour there), and Redbridge like a Tory hold on an even slimmer one. Basically the core of the doughnut turned out and the outer ring is not as Tory as it was. There seems to be neither a big Khan personal vote or a big anti-Khan personal vote (except maybe in Brent and Harrow, but I think the difference there is Dismore's personal vote), as the Khan/Labour votes move in step. People have seemingly just shrugged off all the "you once met an Islamist" stuff and voted on a party basis.
0 -
@holyroodmandy: @Ruth_E_Davidson says @theSNP must now govern not hector #SP16
@holyroodmandy: @Ruth_E_Davidson urges @NicolaSturgeon to start new @ScotParl by ruling out a 2nd referendum #SP160 -
Ah, that's my area. Surprised the turnout was as high as 21% - a lot better than I feared.AndreaParma_82 said:West Mercia PCC - Round 1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChxlxcaXAAAhqx2.jpg:large0 -
APP - Andrea Parma Party ???AndreaParma_82 said:Bexley and Bromley GLA constituency
Conservative 87460
Labour 45791
Ukip 30485
Green 12685
Lib Dem 12145
APP 12430 -
At least seven police forces are investigating whether election expenses for Conservative MPs were filed illegally after the 2015 General Election. Three of those have told the BBC they are asking for an extension on the time limit of their investigations (otherwise these would expire one year after the election expenses were filed).
Beyond the seven forces, at least four others are considering what to do next or seeking further information.
BBC0 -
Con wins Northamptonshire PCC0
