Categories
Why Tory Remain seats could be a struggle for BoJo – politicalbetting.com
Why Tory Remain seats could be a struggle for BoJo – politicalbetting.com
One thing we have seen from council elections and Westminster by-elections this year is how different the outcomes are in Remain and Leave seats. If Hartlepool (Leave 69.57%) was a doodle for an easy CON gain Chesham and Amersham (44.9% Leave) saw a totally different electoral dynamic.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
And it's not as if BTL stays on topic!
I guess Boris will try to make more people into "Leavers" or "Stay Outers"
Too early to call in my opinion
Not a huge fan but anyone is better than SKS
Unless payrises are for more output, they alter only the distribution of the economy, not its size. So a levelling up in one place is a levelling down in another. If those places levelled down are in the Blue SE Shires, then the header is quite ominous.
The truth is that defenestrating Labour leaders is so difficult that it never happens. SKS has it until he resigns.
As costs for labour get competitively driven up it becomes in businesses interests to look at where they can boost productivity. Can they invest in new infrastructure, new equipment etc
Technology is constantly adapting, do you really think boosting productivity is impossible? Higher wages incentivises higher investment.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/29/why-indiana-next-tuesday-is-so-crucial-for-both-trump-and-cruz/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/31/a-hundred-days-to-go-until-the-2016-white-house-election-on-november-8th/
I don't know, but I assume anti-white motivated racist attacks must treated as "hate crimes" too?
Battersea
Richmond Park
Putney
Bath
Twickenham
St Albans
Enfield Southgate
Oxford W
Reading E
Cardiff N
Warwick
Kingston
Bristol NW
Brighton Kemptown
Canterbury
Plus Gower, Weaver Vale, Croydon C and Bedford which voted Leave.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum_by_constituency
We really have had quite an electoral churn during the last five years.
At least he can look forward to summer 2023 relaxing as the successors fight it out.
Hmmm...
Beeb running scared of Tory government and Nadine???
That means he is unlikely to be able to gain enough Tory seats to even get a hung parliament let alone ensure Labour gets most seats. To become PM therefore he will likely need LD gains in Tory Remain seats in the South and SNP gains in Tory Remain seats in Scotland as well
When we turn to more pure service sectors such as increasing the productivity of a nurse, teacher or baby sitter, what do we actually mean?
There is a good book on this by Vollrath, reviewed and discussed here:
https://mattclancy.medium.com/fully-grown-a-review-a55719c6049c
The dumbed down £1,277 'price cap' figure is meaningless for me (and for everybody tbh).
WARRRR
Sexuality has definitely been added to that list.
They also can shift to the LDs not only due to Brexit but also too much building in the countryside eg Chesham and Amersham in the by election
It will likely benefit Macron, pre election, and Boris
It is in their interests for "Global Britain" to flop, and BoZo in charge guarantees that
Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
First, as things stand, the act of putting GB in a potentially different market space to our neighbours inevitably puts a bit of friction and inefficiency in where it didn't exist before. It's possible that it unlocks other possibilities, but at the moment, we're not clear what they are.
To take the HGV example, a driver who can drive freely around the whole of Europe will be more productive than one who is constrained in what they can do in the EEA. The first one has options that aren't open to the second. Their routes can be planned to be more productive and profitable. So the starting point is that British drivers have less productive potential now than they did in 2019. It may be possible to overcome that disadvantage, but that's not the starting point.
(If the EU does issue 5000 5 year HGV visas, it will be an interesting experiment in how big that disadvantage is. Because it seems likely that those drivers will be worth more to their employers and be paid more as a result.)
Second, let's unpick that "businesses will be forced to invest in boosting productivity" line. If such productivity boosts existed and were worthwhile, I would expect someone to be using them already. After all, lower cost workers + training / machinery ought to beat lower cost workers without such benefits. And if they don't, is the training/machinery much of a boon anyway?
This is Thatcherite economics 101; if you have to bribe or force an industry into doing something, it's probably not worth doing. Because if it is worth doing, some bright entrepreneurial spark will do it and prosper mightily thereby.
And without that, we're left with trying to buck the employment market by paying some groups of employees more than the financial value of their work can sustain. Which may be the right social aim, but we need to find another way of attaining that aim. Because Thatcherite economics 102 is the lesson about the buckability of the market.
There'll always be an FBPE tweet waiting for you.
But do you really think France wants to help BJ beat SKS?!?
Of course, he wants what's best for Emmanuel.
In most experiences- like a lesson, say, we remember the beginning and the end. The bits in between, not so much. (I think the same goes for adverts in commercial breaks, to the extent that the first and last spots in a break cost more.)
If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
How are those three defectors coming along?
Having your offspring slide down the socioeconomic ladder would be a social faux pas equivalent to being banned from Waitrose.
Apparently they think we deserve that threat and it will teach us for daring to Brexit.
Are there any EU supporters here that feel that way?
Mainly because of European hostility, esp from France
This is to balance my Leave voting friend who told me, last week, he regrets his vote!
It is a very fluid situation
Tonight it's war with France (again).
Meanwhile, the Cranleigh East council election draws closer.
It all happens only on PB.
Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
Yes we need some new affordable housing for locals to buy in the Home Counties to avoid Tory seats falling to Labour but build too much in the countryside and greenbelt and Nimbys will ensure Tory seats fall to the LDs anyway, so either way you do not get a Tory MP backing a Tory PM
As this level it is possibly the best blue cheese in the world. Not cheap, tho, but nor is a brilliant slab of Roquefort
Plus of course as long as the Tories are in power there will be no indyref2 allowed anyway, if Starmer becomes PM however it will be with Scottish and Welsh votes
Reminds me of the jolly old Winter of Discontent.
Can’t you see it flashing in large lights imported from Timbuktu out the front of the page?
The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.
Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?
Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?
Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.
It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?
Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
So there's a fair chance that a proportion of the turkeys on our tables this Christmas are going to come from France;
https://news.sky.com/story/choice-of-food-for-christmas-could-be-limited-and-turkeys-may-have-to-come-from-europe-expert-says-12425679
which will be fine, I'm sure. But just because we can produce something in Britain doesn't mean that it's sensible or profitable to do so, or that the supply tap can be turned on quickly.
We're only getting 18.48p per kWh for our 2013 panels, plus an assumed export to the grid of half our units at 5.5p.
So effectively circa 24p per unit generated. Plus of course we get first dibs on the units we generate, for free.