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Why Tory Remain seats could be a struggle for BoJo – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    Wages keeping up with inflation? I’ll believe it when I see it.
    It hasn't happened in recent decades, so time to shake up the kaleidoscope.
    Have you been writing Boris’ speech?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,623

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    Wages keeping up with inflation? I’ll believe it when I see it.
    It hasn't happened in recent decades, so time to shake it up.
    And if it did happen it will cause loads of problems in itself as no way the Government gives NHS and other public sector workers double digit pay rises so those sectors will get gutted.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,412
    HYUFD said:

    The Senedd approves mandatory vaccine passports by 1 vote after a Conservative Member with Zoom issues was not allowed to vote
    'https://twitter.com/RWTaylors/status/1445445022535413762?s=20

    This seems, on the face of it at least, utterly ridiculous and undemocratic. Were any other members denied similarly?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
  • gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,412

    kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
    Of course they're available for order... but will they be delivered?
    I expect so, but a lot of people who are used to buying without ordering in advance will find that they are disappointed. My wife has expressed a preference for roast beef this year, so we'll probably do our bit to minimise the turkey crisis of 2021.
    Yep we're off to the farm shop tomorrow to pre-order a rib of beef for Christmas day. You can't beat it imo.
    Very wise. Turkey is rubbish. Were it any good, we’d eat it year round. I usually do rib. I’m toying with the idea of a capon this year (but have never cooked one).
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,337
    Leon said:

    Shit it's midnight and I have nothing to watch. Squid Game was superb. Midnight Mass is shite

    HELP

    Sacred Games on Netflix looks promising (first ep at least)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,623
    edited October 2021

    kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
    Of course they're available for order... but will they be delivered?
    I expect so, but a lot of people who are used to buying without ordering in advance will find that they are disappointed. My wife has expressed a preference for roast beef this year, so we'll probably do our bit to minimise the turkey crisis of 2021.
    Yep we're off to the farm shop tomorrow to pre-order a rib of beef for Christmas day. You can't beat it imo.
    Very wise. Turkey is rubbish. Were it any good, we’d eat it year round. I usually do rib. I’m toying with the idea of a capon this year (but have never cooked one).
    Yep turkey sucks. That tradition needs to go the way of public statues of slavers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    Wages keeping up with inflation? I’ll believe it when I see it.
    It hasn't happened in recent decades, so time to shake it up.

    But people are crying havoc about a wage led inflation now, instead of a cost-led inflation. Suck it up and pay people a fair market wage is what I have to say.
    By sheer force of Will to Power.
    Believe in Brexit. Thy will be done.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,623

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    Or efficient and modern smokeless wood pellet boilers.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 590

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    It seems fairly obvious that unreported rapes, that are not in the alleged column, significantly outweigh the alleged but untrue rapes.

    So the real answer is going to be much less than 1% of actual rapes end in a successful prosecution. If you include repeated rapes in marriage and long term relationships I would not be surprised if it is less than 0.1% of rapes that end in a conviction.
    if they are unreported, by definition you have no fucking clue how many there are. There might be seven trillion a minute

    I am not attempting to minimise the scale of violence against women. The Everard case sobers us all, stuff we all see daily. But if you are a senior British TV journalist you can't run out with clearly bogus statistics aimed at furthering your agenda (which might change tomorrow). This turns the BBC into DailyExpressNews.

    I won't pay for it. Either the BBC shapes up or it can fuck off
    Can I play unders at seven trillion a minute? I'll take 1.01, if we are talking this planet and just counting one personality per person. I don't need to know how many there are to know that there are more unreported cases than there are fake reported cases, I just need to listen.
    Since only 1.6% of reported rapes end up in court, and these are presumably the most provable cases, how can we possibly know what percentage of the remaining 98.4% of reported rapes are false allegations?

    Since the whole thing turns entirely on the state of mind of one person at a particular moment in time where they either consent or don't, it's simply impossible to know how many of the unprovable he said/she said reported rapes are real, and how many are false allegations. I can't see that there is any form of statistical tools which can help us either, as there is no way to generate a usable sample of cases where the truth is known without getting massive levels of sample bias.

    Anyone who claims they know that there are more unreported rapes (there are statistical tools which may allow us to make realistic estimates for these) than false allegations is just giving a very definitive gut opinion. They may be right, but they may well also be wrong.

    I wouldn't want to guess if the true answer is 30% of allegations are false or 0.1%, based on the data available.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,909

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    What would you estimate the rate of false allegations to be?
    I have read widely on this subject and the honest answer is: no one knows. It is so hard to break down, in a reliable way

    Estimates range from the lowest - 2% of claims are false - (a figure first put about by a feminist group in NYC, aided by Susan Brownmiller, in the 1970s!) - to as many as 40% (the estimate of some forensic scientists in the 1990s)

    Basically: nobody knows - and maybe they never will, given the enigmatic nature of the crime, because consent is an ambiguous concept (but we should still try to know). But it is highly irresponsible for someone as influential as Maitlis to say "1.9% of rapes end in a charge". For a start she is telling women: don't bother complaining about rape, you won't be heard, and the rapists always get away with it

    This is dangerous nonsense. More than 50% of rape trials, in the UK, end in a conviction. Maybe she should tell women THAT. At least it has the advantage of being true
    Using the Crime Survey of England and Wales figures for 2020, 1.2 million women have experienced rape at least once since they were 16 (upto age 74), about half of those more than once, and about one-fifth more than three times, making a minimum of about 2.1 million rapes. The age range covers 58 years, so these rapes will have occurred over an average of [roughly] 29 years, making for a rough lower-bound estimate of 70,000 rapes per year.

    There were 1,439 convictions for rape in 2019-20.

    I make that 2.1% of rapes ending in a successful prosecution, as a rough upper bound.

    There are doubtless many things wrong with the citation of the statistic, but it looks like it is pretty accurate.
    ALLEGED

    Jesus how hard is this. A woman may feel she has been raped, the man may feel very differently. If they were both blind drunk, who do we trust?

    Neither?

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,893

    In 1972 we had the oil shock. Are we living thru the gas shock?





    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    If I was the British government, I would be rather worried about this chart; very, very worried. UK natural gas has now breached the equivalent to $40 per million Btu barrier (~300 pence per therm). In oil terms, it's now trading above $230 per barrel of oil equivalent.

    He also says that coal prices are up 90% over the last four weeks to an all-time high.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225
    edited October 2021

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    Or efficient and modern smokeless wood pellet boilers.
    If you're in the public sector, or anyone not blessed by a miraculous huge pay hike, you'll have a cozy warm brazier to stand around as you picket for a 10% inflation matching payrise.
    And quite right too. The benevolence of the Brexit dividend must be shared by all the workers.
    Join a Union.
  • dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    Wages keeping up with inflation? I’ll believe it when I see it.
    It hasn't happened in recent decades, so time to shake it up.
    And if it did happen it will cause loads of problems in itself as no way the Government gives NHS and other public sector workers double digit pay rises so those sectors will get gutted.
    Nope. Deflating private sector pay and having private sector employees being imported for minimum wage, with Universal Credit and Housing Allowance paid by the state to them, and them then demand more services from the state . . . that provided no way for the public sector to get pay rises.

    However if the private sector gets pay rises then the government gets a slice of those pay rises via NI and Income Tax. They also get a slice of those pay rises via reduced UC costs. They also get a slice of those pay rises via increased VAT from what those employees spend their cash on. This pays for the public sectors salaries and makes pay rises affordable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,658

    HYUFD said:

    The Senedd approves mandatory vaccine passports by 1 vote after a Conservative Member with Zoom issues was not allowed to vote
    'https://twitter.com/RWTaylors/status/1445445022535413762?s=20

    This seems, on the face of it at least, utterly ridiculous and undemocratic. Were any other members denied similarly?
    The whole thing was a bit wierd. Plaid were supporting the bill until and hour before. It turns out the proposals weren't Stasi enough for Plaid.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,893
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    What would you estimate the rate of false allegations to be?
    I have read widely on this subject and the honest answer is: no one knows. It is so hard to break down, in a reliable way

    Estimates range from the lowest - 2% of claims are false - (a figure first put about by a feminist group in NYC, aided by Susan Brownmiller, in the 1970s!) - to as many as 40% (the estimate of some forensic scientists in the 1990s)

    Basically: nobody knows - and maybe they never will, given the enigmatic nature of the crime, because consent is an ambiguous concept (but we should still try to know). But it is highly irresponsible for someone as influential as Maitlis to say "1.9% of rapes end in a charge". For a start she is telling women: don't bother complaining about rape, you won't be heard, and the rapists always get away with it

    This is dangerous nonsense. More than 50% of rape trials, in the UK, end in a conviction. Maybe she should tell women THAT. At least it has the advantage of being true
    Using the Crime Survey of England and Wales figures for 2020, 1.2 million women have experienced rape at least once since they were 16 (upto age 74), about half of those more than once, and about one-fifth more than three times, making a minimum of about 2.1 million rapes. The age range covers 58 years, so these rapes will have occurred over an average of [roughly] 29 years, making for a rough lower-bound estimate of 70,000 rapes per year.

    There were 1,439 convictions for rape in 2019-20.

    I make that 2.1% of rapes ending in a successful prosecution, as a rough upper bound.

    There are doubtless many things wrong with the citation of the statistic, but it looks like it is pretty accurate.
    ALLEGED

    Jesus how hard is this. A woman may feel she has been raped, the man may feel very differently. If they were both blind drunk, who do we trust?

    Neither?
    You think that women are making false allegations of rape to the Crime Survey of England and Wales? What on earth would their motivation be for that?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    gealbhan said:

    Leon said:

    Shit it's midnight and I have nothing to watch. Squid Game was superb. Midnight Mass is shite

    HELP

    I found an Opera on the net based on Breaking The Waves I thought was very good.

    I don’t know if that helps at all?
    One of the most obscure references in a long time on PB. :smiley:

    (NB: Wonderful film).
    Thanks for that accolade equivalent to, a Blue Peter badge. 🙂

    Yet tiz https://my.mail.ru/video/embed/1180832194961136412
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,412

    kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
    It was just all the Christmas tat plus sweets cakes and biscuits. None of which any of us need.
    Christmas is far better without that shite polluting the house. It should be a celebration of great food and drink, not mass produced sweets. If panic buying results in me avoiding unwanted gifts of cheap chocolate, I’m all for it.
  • dixiedean said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    Or efficient and modern smokeless wood pellet boilers.
    If you're in the public sector, or anyone not blessed by a miraculous huge pay hike, you'll have a cozy warm brazier to stand around as you picket for a 10% inflation matching payrise.
    And quite right too. The benevolence of the Brexit dividend must be shared by all the workers.
    Join a Union.
    No need for unions to set pay, let supply and demand do it. If your skills are valuable and needed then you should get a pay rise. If they're not, then sorry but there is a minimum wage.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,713
    edited October 2021
    How many Tory Remain seats are there with majorities of less than 20%? (ie. vulnerable to a 10% swing). I'm not sure there are 40 of them, which would wipe out the Conservative overall majority.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,412
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    It's a tabloid using the word "could", so usual rule applies.

    How are those three defectors coming along?
    Several PBers were obsequiously congratulating MrEd on Sunday for successfully identifying one of the trio. In all fairness, nobody else in the world has identified any of them.
    What’s more he didn't. That came much earlier in the discussion via the Vote UK forum.
    Nonetheless. If there were only one, it would be him.
    So, in summary, MrEd was obsequiously congratulated on PB for repeating an inaccurate prediction on another forum about the detail of a newspaper article which was entirely untrue.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,412

    kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
    Of course they're available for order... but will they be delivered?
    I expect so, but a lot of people who are used to buying without ordering in advance will find that they are disappointed. My wife has expressed a preference for roast beef this year, so we'll probably do our bit to minimise the turkey crisis of 2021.
    Yep we're off to the farm shop tomorrow to pre-order a rib of beef for Christmas day. You can't beat it imo.
    Very wise. Turkey is rubbish. Were it any good, we’d eat it year round. I usually do rib. I’m toying with the idea of a capon this year (but have never cooked one).
    Yep turkey sucks. That tradition needs to go the way of public statues of slavers.
    It’s not even a proper tradition, or so I’m told, but a US import from Thanksgiving. The traditional bird is goose I think.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,893

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    It's a tabloid using the word "could", so usual rule applies.

    How are those three defectors coming along?
    Several PBers were obsequiously congratulating MrEd on Sunday for successfully identifying one of the trio. In all fairness, nobody else in the world has identified any of them.
    What’s more he didn't. That came much earlier in the discussion via the Vote UK forum.
    Nonetheless. If there were only one, it would be him.
    So, in summary, MrEd was obsequiously congratulated on PB for repeating an inaccurate prediction on another forum about the detail of a newspaper article which was entirely untrue.
    It's important to find a reason to praise right-wing posters from time to time, even at the risk of doing so spuriously, otherwise we'd risk scaring them all away!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225

    dixiedean said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    Or efficient and modern smokeless wood pellet boilers.
    If you're in the public sector, or anyone not blessed by a miraculous huge pay hike, you'll have a cozy warm brazier to stand around as you picket for a 10% inflation matching payrise.
    And quite right too. The benevolence of the Brexit dividend must be shared by all the workers.
    Join a Union.
    No need for unions to set pay, let supply and demand do it. If your skills are valuable and needed then you should get a pay rise. If they're not, then sorry but there is a minimum wage.
    And what if there are strikes? Has this government prepared? In a free market, folk have a right to withdraw their labour. Or maybe the decision whether to work or not is not part of your rugged individualist calculations?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,909

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    What would you estimate the rate of false allegations to be?
    I have read widely on this subject and the honest answer is: no one knows. It is so hard to break down, in a reliable way

    Estimates range from the lowest - 2% of claims are false - (a figure first put about by a feminist group in NYC, aided by Susan Brownmiller, in the 1970s!) - to as many as 40% (the estimate of some forensic scientists in the 1990s)

    Basically: nobody knows - and maybe they never will, given the enigmatic nature of the crime, because consent is an ambiguous concept (but we should still try to know). But it is highly irresponsible for someone as influential as Maitlis to say "1.9% of rapes end in a charge". For a start she is telling women: don't bother complaining about rape, you won't be heard, and the rapists always get away with it

    This is dangerous nonsense. More than 50% of rape trials, in the UK, end in a conviction. Maybe she should tell women THAT. At least it has the advantage of being true
    Using the Crime Survey of England and Wales figures for 2020, 1.2 million women have experienced rape at least once since they were 16 (upto age 74), about half of those more than once, and about one-fifth more than three times, making a minimum of about 2.1 million rapes. The age range covers 58 years, so these rapes will have occurred over an average of [roughly] 29 years, making for a rough lower-bound estimate of 70,000 rapes per year.

    There were 1,439 convictions for rape in 2019-20.

    I make that 2.1% of rapes ending in a successful prosecution, as a rough upper bound.

    There are doubtless many things wrong with the citation of the statistic, but it looks like it is pretty accurate.
    ALLEGED

    Jesus how hard is this. A woman may feel she has been raped, the man may feel very differently. If they were both blind drunk, who do we trust?

    Neither?
    You think that women are making false allegations of rape to the Crime Survey of England and Wales? What on earth would their motivation be for that?
    It’s not a maliciously false allegation. It’s what she possibly indeed probably believes. But it can still, in the balance, be wrong. That’s why we have prosecutors, trials, courts and juries to decide these things, that’s why we don’t just rely on the word of a plaintiff

    A common but erroneous comparison is often made between rape and robbery. If robbery is alleged, and something is taken = robbery

    But the comparison is absurd. No one wants to be robbed. Lots of women want to have sex. The encounter is sought. The lines of consent may then be blurred by innumerable things - drink, drugs, regret, delusion, sleep, dreams, revenge.

    It’s a minefield. A responsible BBC journalist should be using hard, provable statistics - which are shocking enough, re violence on women - there is no need to resort to Daily Expressery.

    And on that note, good night. I might be forced to watch FOUNDATION
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    gealbhan said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    It's a tabloid using the word "could", so usual rule applies.

    How are those three defectors coming along?
    Outside of the Tory and Momentum dirty tricks units, in the real world, it’s not impossible some high profile lefties could jump to the Greens?
    If one just goes by policy platforms, yes, absolutely. But culturally they're very different, which is why the Greens continue to stand against Corbynite candidates. Labour leftists are predominantly anti-capitalist and worried about poverty, especially in the Third World, and their greenery is a secondary effect - they feel big business is among other things wrecking the planet. Greens are predominantly counter-culture - they have almost no interest in trade unions and they're only anti-capitalist because they see capitalism as part of the establishment culture. I know this sounds all a bit People's Front of Judea if you're not close to it, but they are really very different animals.

    At lower level all this is less true - people switch parties for all kinds of reasons, often to do with personal likings or animosities.
    I respect an opinion watched and considered over a long course of time, on other hand things tend to move swiftly in politics, have the edges of greens and Labour blurred more in recent years?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225
    edited October 2021
    Can't really get my head round the fact that a full 5 years after the Brexit vote that the Right are extolling the moral virtues of shortages, while Lefties make dire warnings of the moral hazards of inflation.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 590

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    At some point reality is going to impinge on the green fad, and that moment looks like it's drawing nigh.

    There is no viable technology for heating UK homes for anything like the cost of gas fired central heating. There will be no such technology in 2035 either.
    Most people's revealed preferences are very clear - they are happy to be green as long as it doesn't cost them anything, or inconvenience them more than very mildly.

    Electric cars have some degree of popular acceptance because they are cheaper than ICE vehicles to run (although everyone seems to be overlooking the fact that this is almost entirely a tax arbitrage, rather than a real saving).

    Moving the UK's domestic heating to electricity (with or without heat pumps) or hydrogen is going to be very very expensive, both in installation and running costs. It's probably £10k a house to transition, then double the running costs. People don't have that sort of cash spare, and the government can't possibly afford to fund it without massive tax rises.

    Currently the green agenda is being kept alive by two things - it hasn't started hitting people hard in the wallet yet, and no serious political party is against it.
    It's not going to be long after the costs start to bite before one of the political parties (probably the Tories, their voters are more aware of this stuff) realises there is a lot of votes in binning the whole green agenda. And that will be the end of it.

    The correct response to climate variability is obviously going to be mitigate, mitigate and mitigate. It's too late for any other outcome now anyway, unless that nice Mr Xi suddenly decides to deindustralise China. We might as well get on with that now, rather than impoverish ourselves trying to stop the inevitable.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    Or efficient and modern smokeless wood pellet boilers.
    If you're in the public sector, or anyone not blessed by a miraculous huge pay hike, you'll have a cozy warm brazier to stand around as you picket for a 10% inflation matching payrise.
    And quite right too. The benevolence of the Brexit dividend must be shared by all the workers.
    Join a Union.
    No need for unions to set pay, let supply and demand do it. If your skills are valuable and needed then you should get a pay rise. If they're not, then sorry but there is a minimum wage.
    And what if there are strikes? Has this government prepared? In a free market, folk have a right to withdraw their labour. Or maybe the decision whether to work or not is not part of your rugged individualist calculations?
    As far as I'm concerned, if people want to withdraw their labour they should be entirely free to do so - and the employer should be free to let them go and replace them immediately with someone else if someone else wants the job on the same terms and conditions that the striking individual is rejecting.

    If wages are too low there'll be nobody else looking to fill those vacancies so the wages would go up.
    If wages are too high then there'll be 'scabs' happy to take the jobs that those 'withdrawing their labour' are deciding are beneath them and that'll be that.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
  • dixiedean said:

    Can't really get my head round the fact that a full 5 years after the Brexit vote that the Right are extolling the moral virtues of shortages, while Lefties make dire warnings of the moral hazards of inflation.

    It would be nice if people had been addressing the real hazards of inflation that have really existed for years. Instead inflation has been celebrated as 'prosperity' instead of costs going up for years. I've long been criticising this.

    From 1999 to 2020 wages have gone up by 2.8% compound growth in the UK
    From 1999 to 2020 costs have gone up 6.2% compound growth in the UK.

    Housing costs have now replaced food cost as the highest cost in a household's budget (except for people who don't have to pay housing costs).

    What do you call that if not inflation? Inflation that is higher than wages too.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,893
    theProle said:

    The correct response to climate variability is obviously going to be mitigate, mitigate and mitigate. It's too late for any other outcome now anyway, unless that nice Mr Xi suddenly decides to deindustralise China. We might as well get on with that now, rather than impoverish ourselves trying to stop the inevitable.

    In climate policy parlance mitigation is the policy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the perturbation to the climate consequently produced, and it is adaptation that refers to the policy of rebuilding all our coastal infrastructure on higher ground, rehousing the millions whose homes will be flooded and moving agriculture to chase the changed climate.

    It really shouldn't be seen as either/or. Even if we hit the most optimistic emissions reductions pathways, we'd still have to adapt to some changes, and even if we don't hit net zero this century, the more we can reduce emissions the slower we will change the climate, and so the more time we will have to adapt to the changes produced.

    The simplest answer is that we should attempt to cut greenhouse gas emissions by as much as we can as fast as we can.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    Or efficient and modern smokeless wood pellet boilers.
    If you're in the public sector, or anyone not blessed by a miraculous huge pay hike, you'll have a cozy warm brazier to stand around as you picket for a 10% inflation matching payrise.
    And quite right too. The benevolence of the Brexit dividend must be shared by all the workers.
    Join a Union.
    No need for unions to set pay, let supply and demand do it. If your skills are valuable and needed then you should get a pay rise. If they're not, then sorry but there is a minimum wage.
    And what if there are strikes? Has this government prepared? In a free market, folk have a right to withdraw their labour. Or maybe the decision whether to work or not is not part of your rugged individualist calculations?
    As far as I'm concerned, if people want to withdraw their labour they should be entirely free to do so - and the employer should be free to let them go and replace them immediately with someone else if someone else wants the job on the same terms and conditions that the striking individual is rejecting.

    If wages are too low there'll be nobody else looking to fill those vacancies so the wages would go up.
    If wages are too high then there'll be 'scabs' happy to take the jobs that those 'withdrawing their labour' are deciding are beneath them and that'll be that.
    But. That worked with 3 million on the Dole. It doesn't when there aren't any workers.
    Free market.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    Or efficient and modern smokeless wood pellet boilers.
    If you're in the public sector, or anyone not blessed by a miraculous huge pay hike, you'll have a cozy warm brazier to stand around as you picket for a 10% inflation matching payrise.
    And quite right too. The benevolence of the Brexit dividend must be shared by all the workers.
    Join a Union.
    No need for unions to set pay, let supply and demand do it. If your skills are valuable and needed then you should get a pay rise. If they're not, then sorry but there is a minimum wage.
    And what if there are strikes? Has this government prepared? In a free market, folk have a right to withdraw their labour. Or maybe the decision whether to work or not is not part of your rugged individualist calculations?
    As far as I'm concerned, if people want to withdraw their labour they should be entirely free to do so - and the employer should be free to let them go and replace them immediately with someone else if someone else wants the job on the same terms and conditions that the striking individual is rejecting.

    If wages are too low there'll be nobody else looking to fill those vacancies so the wages would go up.
    If wages are too high then there'll be 'scabs' happy to take the jobs that those 'withdrawing their labour' are deciding are beneath them and that'll be that.
    But. That worked with 3 million on the Dole. It doesn't when there aren't any workers.
    Free market.
    Not arguing with that.

    When there aren't any workers though, there's no need even to strike. Just say to your employer "I can get better elsewhere, what are you going to do about it" and if they don't do better then move.

    The problem with wage rises is when we're already past the market equilibrium point and millions are on the dole but wage increases are going ahead due to politics/unions not the market.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225
    edited October 2021

    dixiedean said:

    Can't really get my head round the fact that a full 5 years after the Brexit vote that the Right are extolling the moral virtues of shortages, while Lefties make dire warnings of the moral hazards of inflation.

    It would be nice if people had been addressing the real hazards of inflation that have really existed for years. Instead inflation has been celebrated as 'prosperity' instead of costs going up for years. I've long been criticising this.

    From 1999 to 2020 wages have gone up by 2.8% compound growth in the UK
    From 1999 to 2020 costs have gone up 6.2% compound growth in the UK.

    Housing costs have now replaced food cost as the highest cost in a household's budget (except for people who don't have to pay housing costs).

    What do you call that if not inflation? Inflation that is higher than wages too.
    Well. Yes. That would have been lovely. Tell that to the home owners and landlords that they need some belt tightening.
    I'm sure that will be most of Boris' speech.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,893

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Can't really get my head round the fact that a full 5 years after the Brexit vote that the Right are extolling the moral virtues of shortages, while Lefties make dire warnings of the moral hazards of inflation.

    It would be nice if people had been addressing the real hazards of inflation that have really existed for years. Instead inflation has been celebrated as 'prosperity' instead of costs going up for years. I've long been criticising this.

    From 1999 to 2020 wages have gone up by 2.8% compound growth in the UK
    From 1999 to 2020 costs have gone up 6.2% compound growth in the UK.

    Housing costs have now replaced food cost as the highest cost in a household's budget (except for people who don't have to pay housing costs).

    What do you call that if not inflation? Inflation that is higher than wages too.
    Well. Yes. That would have been lovely. Tell that to the home owners and landlords that they need some belt tightening.
    I'm sure that will be most of Boris' speech.
    I'm not Boris. My opinions are my own.

    But if Boris's actions meets my opinions then I'd be happy to rejoin the party and vote for him again in the future. If he doesn't and Starmer does then I'd be happy to lend Labour my vote.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    Mathematically possible, not realistically possible as you'll always have variation and any variation from 0% could be dropping people into negative equity, which will affect how the Banks approve mortgages too. Plus it'd take an extremely long time to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades. You'd be looking at over two decades of that implausible scenario to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 6% general inflation and 7% wage inflation then you'd have houses going up still (good for Banks to avoid negative equity risks) even with some natural variation and it'd only take a decade of that to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 10% general inflation and 11% wage inflation then you'd keep houses going up marginally, and reverse the damage in 6 years.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Do you know what?
    I actually think 1 would be the best all round. Won't happen, cos the Party holding the parcel wouldn't get back in for a generation.
    But 1 would be best. Their store of utterly unearned income wiped out. Year Zero as it were.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Do you know what?
    I actually think 1 would be the best all round. Won't happen, cos the Party holding the parcel wouldn't get back in for a generation.
    But 1 would be best. Their store of utterly unearned income wiped out. Year Zero as it were.
    I'd have no qualms whatsoever with people losing a store of utterly unearned income. None at all, just as with a stock market all investments can go down as well as up.

    The issue with negative equity though would be the people who only got mortgaged up in the past year or two and are now lumped with that. They're the problem.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    And in the long run we are all dead.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Do you know what?
    I actually think 1 would be the best all round. Won't happen, cos the Party holding the parcel wouldn't get back in for a generation.
    But 1 would be best. Their store of utterly unearned income wiped out. Year Zero as it were.
    I'd have no qualms whatsoever with people losing a store of utterly unearned income. None at all, just as with a stock market all investments can go down as well as up.

    The issue with negative equity though would be the people who only got mortgaged up in the past year or two and are now lumped with that. They're the problem.
    They are the late adopters of tulips. Tough.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,225
    edited October 2021

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Do you know what?
    I actually think 1 would be the best all round. Won't happen, cos the Party holding the parcel wouldn't get back in for a generation.
    But 1 would be best. Their store of utterly unearned income wiped out. Year Zero as it were.
    I'd have no qualms whatsoever with people losing a store of utterly unearned income. None at all, just as with a stock market all investments can go down as well as up.

    The issue with negative equity though would be the people who only got mortgaged up in the past year or two and are now lumped with that. They're the problem.
    Deleted. Duplicate.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Do you know what?
    I actually think 1 would be the best all round. Won't happen, cos the Party holding the parcel wouldn't get back in for a generation.
    But 1 would be best. Their store of utterly unearned income wiped out. Year Zero as it were.
    I'd have no qualms whatsoever with people losing a store of utterly unearned income. None at all, just as with a stock market all investments can go down as well as up.

    The issue with negative equity though would be the people who only got mortgaged up in the past year or two and are now lumped with that. They're the problem.
    They are the late adopters of tulips. Tough.
    That's fairer than the status quo, I agree. Caveat Emptor.

    I just think inflation so long as its wage-led would avoid that being necessary. But either way one of those 2 has to happen for me.

    Wage-led inflation would have the added bonus of shrinking our tremendous debt burden too. Years of balanced budgets and inflation would see debt-to-GDP collapse.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,796
    New Zealand raises interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,265
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Do you know what?
    I actually think 1 would be the best all round. Won't happen, cos the Party holding the parcel wouldn't get back in for a generation.
    But 1 would be best. Their store of utterly unearned income wiped out. Year Zero as it were.
    I'd have no qualms whatsoever with people losing a store of utterly unearned income. None at all, just as with a stock market all investments can go down as well as up.

    The issue with negative equity though would be the people who only got mortgaged up in the past year or two and are now lumped with that. They're the problem.
    They are the late adopters of tulips. Tough.
    Indeed. I think it’s why interest rates never really went up during the good times. The latest people to get on the ladder would have kicked off royally and the BoE didn’t have the stomach for that.

    Instead, we’re likely to get the carnage of a crash. Still, it makes me feel a little better for not taking the plunge.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,265
    Just caught Ian Dunt on Sky News complaining that nurses won’t be getting a pay rise. There’s definitely a whiff of “the wrong people are getting a pay rise” in all this.

    My advice to kids is to think very carefully about going to university. Plenty of money to be made in jobs not needing a degree a student debt.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,713
    edited October 2021
    There are around 40 Tory seats which voted Remain and where their majority is less than 20%. So even if they lost all of them they'd probably still be in office. (Doesn't take boundary changes into account).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,504

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    Mathematically possible, not realistically possible as you'll always have variation and any variation from 0% could be dropping people into negative equity, which will affect how the Banks approve mortgages too. Plus it'd take an extremely long time to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades. You'd be looking at over two decades of that implausible scenario to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 6% general inflation and 7% wage inflation then you'd have houses going up still (good for Banks to avoid negative equity risks) even with some natural variation and it'd only take a decade of that to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 10% general inflation and 11% wage inflation then you'd keep houses going up marginally, and reverse the damage in 6 years.
    You would sadly also bankrupt every pension scheme in the country, which owns large quantities of long term, fixed rate debt.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,504

    dixiedean said:

    Can't really get my head round the fact that a full 5 years after the Brexit vote that the Right are extolling the moral virtues of shortages, while Lefties make dire warnings of the moral hazards of inflation.

    It would be nice if people had been addressing the real hazards of inflation that have really existed for years. Instead inflation has been celebrated as 'prosperity' instead of costs going up for years. I've long been criticising this.

    From 1999 to 2020 wages have gone up by 2.8% compound growth in the UK
    From 1999 to 2020 costs have gone up 6.2% compound growth in the UK.

    Housing costs have now replaced food cost as the highest cost in a household's budget (except for people who don't have to pay housing costs).

    What do you call that if not inflation? Inflation that is higher than wages too.
    It is, of course, worth noting that most developed countries - the US, Canada, Germany, Australia - have seen similar.

    Low interest rates have driven prices of housing higher, because people buy on "percentage of salary spent on mortgage" grounds.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,504
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Can't really get my head round the fact that a full 5 years after the Brexit vote that the Right are extolling the moral virtues of shortages, while Lefties make dire warnings of the moral hazards of inflation.

    It would be nice if people had been addressing the real hazards of inflation that have really existed for years. Instead inflation has been celebrated as 'prosperity' instead of costs going up for years. I've long been criticising this.

    From 1999 to 2020 wages have gone up by 2.8% compound growth in the UK
    From 1999 to 2020 costs have gone up 6.2% compound growth in the UK.

    Housing costs have now replaced food cost as the highest cost in a household's budget (except for people who don't have to pay housing costs).

    What do you call that if not inflation? Inflation that is higher than wages too.
    It is, of course, worth noting that most developed countries - the US, Canada, Germany, Australia - have seen similar.

    Low interest rates have driven prices of housing higher, because people buy on "percentage of salary spent on mortgage" grounds.
    The exceptions are Italy and Japan (which had housing markets which peaked in the 90s and have been in retreat ever since), and Spain (which had an almighty boom, an almighty crash, and is now rising again.)
  • Yet again PB demonstrates why economics is the dismal science.
  • Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly I expect Starmer do do better in Remain voting Tory marginals in London and the suburbs than in Leave voting Tory marginals in the Red Wall.

    That means he is unlikely to be able to gain enough Tory seats to even get a hung parliament let alone ensure Labour gets most seats. To become PM therefore he will likely need LD gains in Tory Remain seats in the South and SNP gains in Tory Remain seats in Scotland as well

    There aren't many Labour targets from the Tories left in London, excluding those with large Jewish populations where it's likely Labour will continue to struggle.
    Chingford and Woodford Green, Kensington, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Cities of London and Westminster, Uxbridge and Ruislip South, Harrow East all Tory Remain seats in London (except Uxbridge) in the top 100 Labour target seats. Starmer's wife is Jewish and Labour could well gain Barnet next year in the London local elections given Corbyn is gone and so Jewish voters will be less scared to vote Labour
    It'll be interesting to see how many of those seats survive the boundary review. Losing some of them may end up being priced into the notional results.
    London is getting two more seats, so while there will be changes, there's not much to lose sleep over.
    https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2023-review/london/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,504
    theProle said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    At some point reality is going to impinge on the green fad, and that moment looks like it's drawing nigh.

    There is no viable technology for heating UK homes for anything like the cost of gas fired central heating. There will be no such technology in 2035 either.
    Most people's revealed preferences are very clear - they are happy to be green as long as it doesn't cost them anything, or inconvenience them more than very mildly.

    Electric cars have some degree of popular acceptance because they are cheaper than ICE vehicles to run (although everyone seems to be overlooking the fact that this is almost entirely a tax arbitrage, rather than a real saving).

    Moving the UK's domestic heating to electricity (with or without heat pumps) or hydrogen is going to be very very expensive, both in installation and running costs. It's probably £10k a house to transition, then double the running costs. People don't have that sort of cash spare, and the government can't possibly afford to fund it without massive tax rises.

    Currently the green agenda is being kept alive by two things - it hasn't started hitting people hard in the wallet yet, and no serious political party is against it.
    It's not going to be long after the costs start to bite before one of the political parties (probably the Tories, their voters are more aware of this stuff) realises there is a lot of votes in binning the whole green agenda. And that will be the end of it.

    The correct response to climate variability is obviously going to be mitigate, mitigate and mitigate. It's too late for any other outcome now anyway, unless that nice Mr Xi suddenly decides to deindustralise China. We might as well get on with that now, rather than impoverish ourselves trying to stop the inevitable.
    Well, ultimately, burning hydrocarbons and directly using the heat given off to... heat... our homes and water is as close to 100% efficient as you're going to get.

    But it is worth noting that heat pumps work both ways. In summer they can act like air conditioners, and in winter like heaters.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,713

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly I expect Starmer do do better in Remain voting Tory marginals in London and the suburbs than in Leave voting Tory marginals in the Red Wall.

    That means he is unlikely to be able to gain enough Tory seats to even get a hung parliament let alone ensure Labour gets most seats. To become PM therefore he will likely need LD gains in Tory Remain seats in the South and SNP gains in Tory Remain seats in Scotland as well

    There aren't many Labour targets from the Tories left in London, excluding those with large Jewish populations where it's likely Labour will continue to struggle.
    Chingford and Woodford Green, Kensington, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Cities of London and Westminster, Uxbridge and Ruislip South, Harrow East all Tory Remain seats in London (except Uxbridge) in the top 100 Labour target seats. Starmer's wife is Jewish and Labour could well gain Barnet next year in the London local elections given Corbyn is gone and so Jewish voters will be less scared to vote Labour
    It'll be interesting to see how many of those seats survive the boundary review. Losing some of them may end up being priced into the notional results.
    London is getting two more seats, so while there will be changes, there's not much to lose sleep over.
    https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2023-review/london/
    That's true but the boundary changes are still likely to be pretty extensive which could wipe out Tory seats in places like Chingford.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,713

    Yet again PB demonstrates why economics is the dismal science.

    +1
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,265

    Yet again PB demonstrates why economics is the dismal science.

    Quite the opposite, actually:

    https://theatlantic.com/amp/article/282454/

    Unless you approve of slavery.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    New rules on vaccination for care home staff came in a week or so ago. No first jab, no job.
  • tlg86 said:

    Just caught Ian Dunt on Sky News complaining that nurses won’t be getting a pay rise. There’s definitely a whiff of “the wrong people are getting a pay rise” in all this.

    My advice to kids is to think very carefully about going to university. Plenty of money to be made in jobs not needing a degree a student debt.

    Plenty of jobs that don't need a degree to do, need a degree to get. But yes, I agree with your wider point.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    dixiedean said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    Or efficient and modern smokeless wood pellet boilers.
    If you're in the public sector, or anyone not blessed by a miraculous huge pay hike, you'll have a cozy warm brazier to stand around as you picket for a 10% inflation matching payrise.
    And quite right too. The benevolence of the Brexit dividend must be shared by all the workers.
    Join a Union.
    No need for unions to set pay, let supply and demand do it. If your skills are valuable and needed then you should get a pay rise. If they're not, then sorry but there is a minimum wage.
    I haven’t had a pay rise since 2016. Come of think of it, my salary today is lower than in 2011. Are you saying I’m not valuable and needed 🥲
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    Ooh! Sir! I know this one!

    Because lots of journalists own BTL properties?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Why is 2 shit?

    Iirc corporate profits are at or close to their high as a percentage of gdp
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Do you know what?
    I actually think 1 would be the best all round. Won't happen, cos the Party holding the parcel wouldn't get back in for a generation.
    But 1 would be best. Their store of utterly unearned income wiped out. Year Zero as it were.
    And the banks would be fucked resulting a squeezing on lending and economic catastrophe.

    Why do you think a house price crash is the core part of the Bank of England stress tests? It’s because it’s the single worst thing that could happen to the Uk economy
  • pingping Posts: 1,672
    edited October 2021
    A nation of property hoarders’: how Right to Buy transformed UK housing - Margaret Thatcher’s scheme ultimately produced a new generation of private renters

    “If the flat were still council-owned, Dorine says that their rent would be about £450 a month. As it’s now owned privately, the rent is £950.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/2e2c1eda-9c6f-4dfc-a79c-5186b1d423ad

    The right should be very worried. They may have dispatched Corbyn, but the threat of Corbynism hasn’t gone away.
  • Charles said:

    PJH said:

    mickydroy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Robinson doing a robust job of combatting the PM's pitiful bluster on R4 this morning

    We may be a few years yet before the public see through the bluster and the jokes and realise they have been totally had. But they will and the fall will be brutal.
    I totally agree, that when the reckoning happens to the Tory party, it will be brutal, and they will go down to a drubbing, we have never seen before, but I have to add a but first, they need to win the next election first. Then the one after that they will be turned on, anyone but Tory party will walk it
    I've been thinking along these lines too. I reckon the next election will be a good one to lose, as I can see the Tories managing to kick most of the cans far enough down the road to get re-elected. Then the chickens will all come home to roost. (Sorry for mixed metaphors).

    If Labour win, they will get no credit from the actions they will have to take to clear up the mess (a bit like 1974).
    As it happens, Labour have too big a mountain to climb to win in 2023/4. They might deprive the Tories of majority. That is entirely possible especially if the economic shit coming is as dire as I think it will be. So a minority Labour administration gets the blame for failing to clear up the mess. I can see some of the more thoughtful Tories thinking that might be a better way to go.

    It’s never a good election to lose
    Except if you’re Ruth Davidson.

    According to the media, she won every election she ever lost.
    "You are HAL 9000 and I claim my five pounds."

    How many times have you robotically parroted that same message? She's not even a part of the conversation?
    Err… none.

    I cannot recall ever making that point about Ruth Davidson before. You must be confusing me with another poster.

    And referring to FUDHY as HAL 9000 is perfectly justified. He wrote:

    - “No, they will still not get indyref2. Even if we face a nuclear holocaust if we Tories are in government and any of us are still alive we will still not give Sturgeon indyref2.

    Indeed the loss of Taiwanese independence and return to unity with China would suggest a global trend in the opposite direction.”

    That is simply beyond parody. It is quite simply an inhuman comment. I can only hope that FUDHY really is an AI robot and not flesh and blood, because if he is an organism, he needs treatment.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ping said:

    A nation of property hoarders’: how Right to Buy transformed UK housing - Margaret Thatcher’s scheme ultimately produced a new generation of private renters

    “If the flat were still council-owned, Dorine says that their rent would be about £450 a month. As it’s now owned privately, the rent is £950.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/2e2c1eda-9c6f-4dfc-a79c-5186b1d423ad

    The right should be very worried. They may have dispatched Corbyn, but the threat of Corbynism hasn’t gone away.

    If you have no stake in society you have nothing to lose in turning over the table.

    Although I’m intrigued on how she knows exactly what her council owned rent would be
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,237
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Pretty sure I’ve seen more than one other article here in the same vein. Might be nice to have something original.

    This site needs between 730 and 1080 threads a year. There is bound to be repetition in that number of posts.
    And radio four did a whole piece on it yesterday, including interviews with various blue wall voters describing the buffoon and incompetent as a buffoon and incompetent. So it is clearly topical.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,237
    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    Or efficient and modern smokeless wood pellet boilers.
    If you're in the public sector, or anyone not blessed by a miraculous huge pay hike, you'll have a cozy warm brazier to stand around as you picket for a 10% inflation matching payrise.
    And quite right too. The benevolence of the Brexit dividend must be shared by all the workers.
    Join a Union.
    No need for unions to set pay, let supply and demand do it. If your skills are valuable and needed then you should get a pay rise. If they're not, then sorry but there is a minimum wage.
    I haven’t had a pay rise since 2016. Come of think of it, my salary today is lower than in 2011. Are you saying I’m not valuable and needed 🥲
    We’ll leave you to make that case yourself ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,237
    edited October 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly I expect Starmer do do better in Remain voting Tory marginals in London and the suburbs than in Leave voting Tory marginals in the Red Wall.

    That means he is unlikely to be able to gain enough Tory seats to even get a hung parliament let alone ensure Labour gets most seats. To become PM therefore he will likely need LD gains in Tory Remain seats in the South and SNP gains in Tory Remain seats in Scotland as well

    There aren't many Labour targets from the Tories left in London, excluding those with large Jewish populations where it's likely Labour will continue to struggle.
    Chingford and Woodford Green, Kensington, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Cities of London and Westminster, Uxbridge and Ruislip South, Harrow East all Tory Remain seats in London (except Uxbridge) in the top 100 Labour target seats. Starmer's wife is Jewish and Labour could well gain Barnet next year in the London local elections given Corbyn is gone and so Jewish voters will be less scared to vote Labour
    It'll be interesting to see how many of those seats survive the boundary review. Losing some of them may end up being priced into the notional results.
    London is getting two more seats, so while there will be changes, there's not much to lose sleep over.
    https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2023-review/london/
    That's true but the boundary changes are still likely to be pretty extensive which could wipe out Tory seats in places like Chingford.
    Are they likely to be extensive? The total number of seats is the same, and the changes proposed at draft stage were more a series of tweaks than an extensive redrawing. Chingford gains a ward and a half in the north, and as one of them is Tory Bridge ward, balanced by losing parts of split wards in the south, is likely slightly less at risk.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,074
    tlg86 said:

    Just caught Ian Dunt on Sky News complaining that nurses won’t be getting a pay rise. There’s definitely a whiff of “the wrong people are getting a pay rise” in all this.

    My advice to kids is to think very carefully about going to university. Plenty of money to be made in jobs not needing a degree a student debt.

    Dunt is a fool. You only have to look at his twitter feed to see that. The nurses are getting a rise.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,405
    Charles said:

    ping said:

    A nation of property hoarders’: how Right to Buy transformed UK housing - Margaret Thatcher’s scheme ultimately produced a new generation of private renters

    “If the flat were still council-owned, Dorine says that their rent would be about £450 a month. As it’s now owned privately, the rent is £950.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/2e2c1eda-9c6f-4dfc-a79c-5186b1d423ad

    The right should be very worried. They may have dispatched Corbyn, but the threat of Corbynism hasn’t gone away.

    If you have no stake in society you have nothing to lose in turning over the table.

    Although I’m intrigued on how she knows exactly what her council owned rent would be
    There may still be council tenants in the block.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,237
    edited October 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    Mathematically possible, not realistically possible as you'll always have variation and any variation from 0% could be dropping people into negative equity, which will affect how the Banks approve mortgages too. Plus it'd take an extremely long time to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades. You'd be looking at over two decades of that implausible scenario to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 6% general inflation and 7% wage inflation then you'd have houses going up still (good for Banks to avoid negative equity risks) even with some natural variation and it'd only take a decade of that to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 10% general inflation and 11% wage inflation then you'd keep houses going up marginally, and reverse the damage in 6 years.
    You would sadly also bankrupt every pension scheme in the country, which owns large quantities of long term, fixed rate debt.
    George Osborne stole all the funds from my pension scheme, spent them, and then told me that I can be looked after by the taxpayers of the future. Yet strangely he didn’t share the same fate as Robert Maxwell.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    Or efficient and modern smokeless wood pellet boilers.
    If you're in the public sector, or anyone not blessed by a miraculous huge pay hike, you'll have a cozy warm brazier to stand around as you picket for a 10% inflation matching payrise.
    And quite right too. The benevolence of the Brexit dividend must be shared by all the workers.
    Join a Union.
    No need for unions to set pay, let supply and demand do it. If your skills are valuable and needed then you should get a pay rise. If they're not, then sorry but there is a minimum wage.
    I haven’t had a pay rise since 2016. Come of think of it, my salary today is lower than in 2011. Are you saying I’m not valuable and needed 🥲
    We’ll leave you to make that case yourself ;)
    To be honest I’m not that fussed. Money doesn’t really motivate me 😇
  • Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Just caught Ian Dunt on Sky News complaining that nurses won’t be getting a pay rise. There’s definitely a whiff of “the wrong people are getting a pay rise” in all this.

    My advice to kids is to think very carefully about going to university. Plenty of money to be made in jobs not needing a degree a student debt.

    Dunt is a fool. You only have to look at his twitter feed to see that. The nurses are getting a rise.
    I can not for the life of me think what Sky are thinking in partnering Ian Dunt with Anna Soubry on the paper review.

    A more unbalanced pair it would be hard to think of.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    Mathematically possible, not realistically possible as you'll always have variation and any variation from 0% could be dropping people into negative equity, which will affect how the Banks approve mortgages too. Plus it'd take an extremely long time to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades. You'd be looking at over two decades of that implausible scenario to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 6% general inflation and 7% wage inflation then you'd have houses going up still (good for Banks to avoid negative equity risks) even with some natural variation and it'd only take a decade of that to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 10% general inflation and 11% wage inflation then you'd keep houses going up marginally, and reverse the damage in 6 years.
    You would sadly also bankrupt every pension scheme in the country, which owns large quantities of long term, fixed rate debt.
    George Osborne stole all the funds from my pension scheme, spent them, and then told me that I can be looked after by the taxpayers of the future. Yet strangely he didn’t share the same fate as Robert Maxwell.
    It was Gordon Brown’s tax raid that killed pensions
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    Mathematically possible, not realistically possible as you'll always have variation and any variation from 0% could be dropping people into negative equity, which will affect how the Banks approve mortgages too. Plus it'd take an extremely long time to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades. You'd be looking at over two decades of that implausible scenario to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 6% general inflation and 7% wage inflation then you'd have houses going up still (good for Banks to avoid negative equity risks) even with some natural variation and it'd only take a decade of that to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 10% general inflation and 11% wage inflation then you'd keep houses going up marginally, and reverse the damage in 6 years.
    You would sadly also bankrupt every pension scheme in the country, which owns large quantities of long term, fixed rate debt.
    Caveat Emptor.

    The pensioners can take a haircut if need be, they'd still be getting the triple lock if they lose their schemes.

    Though if wages are rising and the rates are fixed, won't those investments be pretty safe? Its when wages fall that people default on fixed rate debt.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,237
    ping said:

    A nation of property hoarders’: how Right to Buy transformed UK housing - Margaret Thatcher’s scheme ultimately produced a new generation of private renters

    “If the flat were still council-owned, Dorine says that their rent would be about £450 a month. As it’s now owned privately, the rent is £950.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/2e2c1eda-9c6f-4dfc-a79c-5186b1d423ad

    The right should be very worried. They may have dispatched Corbyn, but the threat of Corbynism hasn’t gone away.

    housing still costs the state money: it’s just that what it spends no longer translates into new homes. Rather than enabling local authorities to build housing for security and revenue, the public purse is used to subsidise private landlords. In 2018, the Chartered Institute of Housing found that 95.7 per cent of the government housing budget went on housing benefit and mortgage support in the in 2015-16 fiscal year, compared with 18 per cent in 1975-76. Spending on social housing fell to £5.1bn in 2017 from £13.7bn in 1979-80 (in 2018 prices).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    Mathematically possible, not realistically possible as you'll always have variation and any variation from 0% could be dropping people into negative equity, which will affect how the Banks approve mortgages too. Plus it'd take an extremely long time to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades. You'd be looking at over two decades of that implausible scenario to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 6% general inflation and 7% wage inflation then you'd have houses going up still (good for Banks to avoid negative equity risks) even with some natural variation and it'd only take a decade of that to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 10% general inflation and 11% wage inflation then you'd keep houses going up marginally, and reverse the damage in 6 years.
    You would sadly also bankrupt every pension scheme in the country, which owns large quantities of long term, fixed rate debt.
    Caveat Emptor.

    The pensioners can take a haircut if need be, they'd still be getting the triple lock if they lose their schemes.

    Though if wages are rising and the rates are fixed, won't those investments be pretty safe? Its when wages fall that people default on fixed rate debt.
    Debt fixed at, say, 3% with inflation at 10% is going to see a massive erosion in purchasing power. This will be crystallised pretty quickly with a fall in the capital value of the bonds so that they yield an acceptable return.

    Pension funds may not face defaults, but they are going to be very badly damaged in that scenario
  • kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    65% of constituencies voted Leave I think

    Higher in this England, our England.
    Very good.

    I assume an educated chap like youself is familiar with this masterwork of Scottish literature ‘ England, Their England’.
  • Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    The Jeremy (for it is He) resplendently committed to £10 in the 2019 manifesto. SKS continuing to that pledge makes him useless? Or the pledge itself was useless?
  • rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    Mathematically possible, not realistically possible as you'll always have variation and any variation from 0% could be dropping people into negative equity, which will affect how the Banks approve mortgages too. Plus it'd take an extremely long time to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades. You'd be looking at over two decades of that implausible scenario to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 6% general inflation and 7% wage inflation then you'd have houses going up still (good for Banks to avoid negative equity risks) even with some natural variation and it'd only take a decade of that to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 10% general inflation and 11% wage inflation then you'd keep houses going up marginally, and reverse the damage in 6 years.
    You would sadly also bankrupt every pension scheme in the country, which owns large quantities of long term, fixed rate debt.
    Caveat Emptor.

    The pensioners can take a haircut if need be, they'd still be getting the triple lock if they lose their schemes.

    Though if wages are rising and the rates are fixed, won't those investments be pretty safe? Its when wages fall that people default on fixed rate debt.
    Have you any other mad cap far right simplistic solutions? It isn't "pensioners" (whom you clearly despise which is odd seeing as they largely voted for the B word), it is everyone with a pension scheme, which possibly also includes you, and or (if you don't work) perhaps your spouse. If there was a pension scheme collapse then this problem would then leak into all aspects of the financial world, particularly investment generally which supports millions of jobs not just in the finance world but also early stage companies that require seed or VC funding.
  • Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
    Aka wood burning stoves…
    Or efficient and modern smokeless wood pellet boilers.
    If you're in the public sector, or anyone not blessed by a miraculous huge pay hike, you'll have a cozy warm brazier to stand around as you picket for a 10% inflation matching payrise.
    And quite right too. The benevolence of the Brexit dividend must be shared by all the workers.
    Join a Union.
    No need for unions to set pay, let supply and demand do it. If your skills are valuable and needed then you should get a pay rise. If they're not, then sorry but there is a minimum wage.
    I haven’t had a pay rise since 2016. Come of think of it, my salary today is lower than in 2011. Are you saying I’m not valuable and needed 🥲
    I guess it depends what you were earning in 2016. I am definitely earning less than then, but I was earning silly money in those days, so most would think I don't have much to moan about
  • I note that Ravey Mikey Govey is going to Level Up the north by building more houses.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/06/michael-gove-to-push-homebuilding-in-the-north-of-england

    Point of order - does he want to lose the red wall? I can think if many fraught planning rows on Teesside. A decade of building houses fucking everywhere has left people a bit pissed off, so making it easier to build even more houses will go down like a barrel of slaughtered pigs that didn't make the abattoir.

    As I posted the other day, all these housing developments go through with communities unable to resist (unless they give planning permission to developers via a local plan - the only way to stop house building is have a local plan that allows house building).

    Not a single one of these developments bothers with things like new roads, schools and shops, or even sufficient parking spaces for residents. If the Tories think that more houses with less resistance is levelling up, that graphic we saw about red wall Tories heading for the chop will look even grimmer.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,475
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    Mathematically possible, not realistically possible as you'll always have variation and any variation from 0% could be dropping people into negative equity, which will affect how the Banks approve mortgages too. Plus it'd take an extremely long time to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades. You'd be looking at over two decades of that implausible scenario to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 6% general inflation and 7% wage inflation then you'd have houses going up still (good for Banks to avoid negative equity risks) even with some natural variation and it'd only take a decade of that to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 10% general inflation and 11% wage inflation then you'd keep houses going up marginally, and reverse the damage in 6 years.
    You would sadly also bankrupt every pension scheme in the country, which owns large quantities of long term, fixed rate debt.
    Caveat Emptor.

    The pensioners can take a haircut if need be, they'd still be getting the triple lock if they lose their schemes.

    Though if wages are rising and the rates are fixed, won't those investments be pretty safe? Its when wages fall that people default on fixed rate debt.
    Debt fixed at, say, 3% with inflation at 10% is going to see a massive erosion in purchasing power. This will be crystallised pretty quickly with a fall in the capital value of the bonds so that they yield an acceptable return.

    Pension funds may not face defaults, but they are going to be very badly damaged in that scenario
    What a lovely mess 20 years of insane economic policy has created for the country. Not that I th
    Charles said:

    ping said:

    A nation of property hoarders’: how Right to Buy transformed UK housing - Margaret Thatcher’s scheme ultimately produced a new generation of private renters

    “If the flat were still council-owned, Dorine says that their rent would be about £450 a month. As it’s now owned privately, the rent is £950.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/2e2c1eda-9c6f-4dfc-a79c-5186b1d423ad

    The right should be very worried. They may have dispatched Corbyn, but the threat of Corbynism hasn’t gone away.

    If you have no stake in society you have nothing to lose in turning over the table.

    Although I’m intrigued on how she knows exactly what her council owned rent would be
    From a neighbour who never bought?
  • kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    65% of constituencies voted Leave I think

    Higher in this England, our England.
    Very good.

    I assume an educated chap like youself is familiar with this masterwork of Scottish literature ‘ England, Their England’.
    Perhaps you could write a book called "Scotland, Their Scotland" as you don't live there?
  • Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    Mathematically possible, not realistically possible as you'll always have variation and any variation from 0% could be dropping people into negative equity, which will affect how the Banks approve mortgages too. Plus it'd take an extremely long time to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades. You'd be looking at over two decades of that implausible scenario to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 6% general inflation and 7% wage inflation then you'd have houses going up still (good for Banks to avoid negative equity risks) even with some natural variation and it'd only take a decade of that to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 10% general inflation and 11% wage inflation then you'd keep houses going up marginally, and reverse the damage in 6 years.
    You would sadly also bankrupt every pension scheme in the country, which owns large quantities of long term, fixed rate debt.
    Caveat Emptor.

    The pensioners can take a haircut if need be, they'd still be getting the triple lock if they lose their schemes.

    Though if wages are rising and the rates are fixed, won't those investments be pretty safe? Its when wages fall that people default on fixed rate debt.
    Debt fixed at, say, 3% with inflation at 10% is going to see a massive erosion in purchasing power. This will be crystallised pretty quickly with a fall in the capital value of the bonds so that they yield an acceptable return.

    Pension funds may not face defaults, but they are going to be very badly damaged in that scenario
    It will erode the purchasing power of those in the rentier asset holding classes but seeing growth in the value of those actually working for a living.

    That's just a reversal of the past two decades where assets and costs have surged but wages have stagnated.

    Why is that a bad thing? Why should only those renting off the work of others be the ones to benefit from the work others do?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,773

    I note that Ravey Mikey Govey is going to Level Up the north by building more houses.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/06/michael-gove-to-push-homebuilding-in-the-north-of-england

    Point of order - does he want to lose the red wall? I can think if many fraught planning rows on Teesside. A decade of building houses fucking everywhere has left people a bit pissed off, so making it easier to build even more houses will go down like a barrel of slaughtered pigs that didn't make the abattoir.

    As I posted the other day, all these housing developments go through with communities unable to resist (unless they give planning permission to developers via a local plan - the only way to stop house building is have a local plan that allows house building).

    Not a single one of these developments bothers with things like new roads, schools and shops, or even sufficient parking spaces for residents. If the Tories think that more houses with less resistance is levelling up, that graphic we saw about red wall Tories heading for the chop will look even grimmer.

    Too few parking spaces is deliberate. It is to discourage driving and encourage use of public transport. The small flaw in the plan is the absence of public transport...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,504
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    Mathematically possible, not realistically possible as you'll always have variation and any variation from 0% could be dropping people into negative equity, which will affect how the Banks approve mortgages too. Plus it'd take an extremely long time to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades. You'd be looking at over two decades of that implausible scenario to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 6% general inflation and 7% wage inflation then you'd have houses going up still (good for Banks to avoid negative equity risks) even with some natural variation and it'd only take a decade of that to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 10% general inflation and 11% wage inflation then you'd keep houses going up marginally, and reverse the damage in 6 years.
    You would sadly also bankrupt every pension scheme in the country, which owns large quantities of long term, fixed rate debt.
    Caveat Emptor.

    The pensioners can take a haircut if need be, they'd still be getting the triple lock if they lose their schemes.

    Though if wages are rising and the rates are fixed, won't those investments be pretty safe? Its when wages fall that people default on fixed rate debt.
    Debt fixed at, say, 3% with inflation at 10% is going to see a massive erosion in purchasing power. This will be crystallised pretty quickly with a fall in the capital value of the bonds so that they yield an acceptable return.

    Pension funds may not face defaults, but they are going to be very badly damaged in that scenario
    Philip's example is pretty extreme (and by which, I mean unlikely), but a scenario like that would lead to defaults.

    Effectively, pension funds own lots of long term assets yielding 2-3%. If inflation were to rise to 10%, they would be responsible for increasing payouts dramatically, while having little to no additional yield to do that.

    Now, it might be possible to haircut benefits - but how would that be shared out? And there are contractual obligations here. If a British company were to attempt to rewrite pension payments, it would be successfully challenged in court.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,443
    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    Hmmm… panic buying exacerbated a legitimate shortage in fuel because just in time stock management couldn’t cope when the average punter decided to refill a half empty tank than a 90% empty tank.

    The Mail saying “Christmas scoff shortage” isn’t going to make people buy three turkeys and 4 playstations. Either there will be a legitimate shortage of goods in the run up to Xmas or there will not.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,773
    edited October 2021
    So, how does the Tory party still worship the Blessed St Margaret, who fought inflation as the demon of the British economy, triggered a house price boom to spread prosperity, faced down demands from workers for higher pay and was the architect of the Single Market?

    Is it possible to dance on the grave while she spins below?

    I was never a fan, having lived through the Eighties, but nice to see PB Tories have learned to despise her policies. Slow learners these Tories be.
  • Foxy said:

    I note that Ravey Mikey Govey is going to Level Up the north by building more houses.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/06/michael-gove-to-push-homebuilding-in-the-north-of-england

    Point of order - does he want to lose the red wall? I can think if many fraught planning rows on Teesside. A decade of building houses fucking everywhere has left people a bit pissed off, so making it easier to build even more houses will go down like a barrel of slaughtered pigs that didn't make the abattoir.

    As I posted the other day, all these housing developments go through with communities unable to resist (unless they give planning permission to developers via a local plan - the only way to stop house building is have a local plan that allows house building).

    Not a single one of these developments bothers with things like new roads, schools and shops, or even sufficient parking spaces for residents. If the Tories think that more houses with less resistance is levelling up, that graphic we saw about red wall Tories heading for the chop will look even grimmer.

    Too few parking spaces is deliberate. It is to discourage driving and encourage use of public transport. The small flaw in the plan is the absence of public transport...
    It is deliberate, but it isn't deliberate by a council trying to boost public transport. Its deliberate by the developers to crush more properties onto the land.

    Is Govey going to force developers to actually build on land banks where permission has been given and the developer refuses to proceed?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021

    I note that Ravey Mikey Govey is going to Level Up the north by building more houses.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/06/michael-gove-to-push-homebuilding-in-the-north-of-england

    Point of order - does he want to lose the red wall? I can think if many fraught planning rows on Teesside. A decade of building houses fucking everywhere has left people a bit pissed off, so making it easier to build even more houses will go down like a barrel of slaughtered pigs that didn't make the abattoir.

    As I posted the other day, all these housing developments go through with communities unable to resist (unless they give planning permission to developers via a local plan - the only way to stop house building is have a local plan that allows house building).

    Not a single one of these developments bothers with things like new roads, schools and shops, or even sufficient parking spaces for residents. If the Tories think that more houses with less resistance is levelling up, that graphic we saw about red wall Tories heading for the chop will look even grimmer.

    Absolutely fantastic if more houses are built! There's more people in society today, so more homes are needed. I think its great if they come here in the North and not just the South, have everyone in the North able to own their own home. Great!

    I'm curious what our emigré from the North to the further North has to object about that considering he's in favour of mass unlimited immigration and is still bemoaning the lack of more immigration to fill "jobs Brits don't want to do.

    Our population has risen by 10 million in a generation and you want it to rise higher yet still - just where in England do you expect everyone to live if we don't build more housing?

    Let me guess, "not in my [ex] backyard"? Any serious suggestion or are you going to just go full NIMBY and still advocate mass immigration? 🤦‍♂️
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,773

    Foxy said:

    I note that Ravey Mikey Govey is going to Level Up the north by building more houses.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/06/michael-gove-to-push-homebuilding-in-the-north-of-england

    Point of order - does he want to lose the red wall? I can think if many fraught planning rows on Teesside. A decade of building houses fucking everywhere has left people a bit pissed off, so making it easier to build even more houses will go down like a barrel of slaughtered pigs that didn't make the abattoir.

    As I posted the other day, all these housing developments go through with communities unable to resist (unless they give planning permission to developers via a local plan - the only way to stop house building is have a local plan that allows house building).

    Not a single one of these developments bothers with things like new roads, schools and shops, or even sufficient parking spaces for residents. If the Tories think that more houses with less resistance is levelling up, that graphic we saw about red wall Tories heading for the chop will look even grimmer.

    Too few parking spaces is deliberate. It is to discourage driving and encourage use of public transport. The small flaw in the plan is the absence of public transport...
    It is deliberate, but it isn't deliberate by a council trying to boost public transport. Its deliberate by the developers to crush more properties onto the land.

    Is Govey going to force developers to actually build on land banks where permission has been given and the developer refuses to proceed?
    Developers want a stock of land with planning permission in order to plan their projects over the following years. Unless it is built on it is just a cost to them
  • rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    How to tell someone didn't live through the Seventies.
    We've gone back full circle back to the Seventies though. Inflation wasn't defeated, that was a myth, instead it was pushed onto certain costs and they've gone through the roof.

    From memory in the Seventies the highest cost in a household's budget was food, rent or mortgage etc would cost about half of what food cost.
    In the Twenties the highest cost in a household's budget is housing. Rents or mortgages for new purchases cost more than what food costs.

    So we've swapped around what's facing high inflation, but the highest element of the household budget was the one facing high inflation both then and now. The difference is that wages were growing in the past at least, they've not been growing anything like costs in recent years.

    So for the I'm Alright Jacks who think costs are assets instead of costs maybe there's no inflation. Because they've found a way to bypass paying inflation, but others aren't.
    That's no comfort if you go to buy bread. And discover that the bread you budgetted for last week isn't affordable now.
    This is life not a theoretical fantasy. Inflation hurts. Real people. Continually.
    Yeah its fucking shit.

    And you know what else is fucking shit? Having people told that their rent or getting a home isn't affordable now.

    That's not a theoretical fantasy either, that's real life for countless people in this country.

    Food is a smaller share of a household's budget than rent, so why is it OK to have double-digit rent inflation but not food or wage inflation?
    It isn't. Housing inflation is dire. You are sound on that. It is shit. The answer isn't to import that into every other aspect of life.
    There are only three paths from here and every single one of them is shit.

    1: House price crash, millions plunged into negative equity immediately.
    2: Years of inflation in wages exceeding inflation in costs (a reversal of past twenty years).
    3: Do nothing and see the problem only continue to get worse, or be locked in as a problem forever.

    I can't think of a fourth solution, so pick yer poison. Which of those three paths should we take? I'm torn between 1 and 2 but think 2 is better. Alternatively if you can think of a fourth solution I'd love to hear it, I'm all ears.
    Mathematically, you can have general price inflation of 2%, wage inflation of 3% and house price inflation of 0%, and then you would reduce the cost of housing relative to wages over time, without forcing people to live through a damaging period of high price inflation, or to be trapped in negative equity.
    Mathematically possible, not realistically possible as you'll always have variation and any variation from 0% could be dropping people into negative equity, which will affect how the Banks approve mortgages too. Plus it'd take an extremely long time to reverse the damage of the past couple of decades. You'd be looking at over two decades of that implausible scenario to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 6% general inflation and 7% wage inflation then you'd have houses going up still (good for Banks to avoid negative equity risks) even with some natural variation and it'd only take a decade of that to reverse the damage.

    If you have 1% house price inflation, 10% general inflation and 11% wage inflation then you'd keep houses going up marginally, and reverse the damage in 6 years.
    You would sadly also bankrupt every pension scheme in the country, which owns large quantities of long term, fixed rate debt.
    Caveat Emptor.

    The pensioners can take a haircut if need be, they'd still be getting the triple lock if they lose their schemes.

    Though if wages are rising and the rates are fixed, won't those investments be pretty safe? Its when wages fall that people default on fixed rate debt.
    Debt fixed at, say, 3% with inflation at 10% is going to see a massive erosion in purchasing power. This will be crystallised pretty quickly with a fall in the capital value of the bonds so that they yield an acceptable return.

    Pension funds may not face defaults, but they are going to be very badly damaged in that scenario
    Philip's example is pretty extreme (and by which, I mean unlikely), but a scenario like that would lead to defaults.

    Effectively, pension funds own lots of long term assets yielding 2-3%. If inflation were to rise to 10%, they would be responsible for increasing payouts dramatically, while having little to no additional yield to do that.

    Now, it might be possible to haircut benefits - but how would that be shared out? And there are contractual obligations here. If a British company were to attempt to rewrite pension payments, it would be successfully challenged in court.
    If the pension funds are long on inflation-resistant assets, and long on inflation-adjusting liabilities then shouldn't caveat emptor apply? That's a flawed business model.
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