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Why Tory Remain seats could be a struggle for BoJo – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    Why should they miss out on Christmas? They can easily buy British turkey, British potatoes, British stuffing, British cauliflower and carrots, British cranberry sauce, British Christmas puddings and British cheeses like stilton and wensleydale can be consumed instead of French cheeses. It would just be a bumper Christmas for British farmers and Australian and South African wine producers if French fishermen prevent EU food and drink exports to GB
    With the specifics of the turkeys, there were reports last week about how British farmers had hatched as many turkeys as they could process, which is not as many as Brits are likely to want to buy.

    So there's a fair chance that a proportion of the turkeys on our tables this Christmas are going to come from France;

    https://news.sky.com/story/choice-of-food-for-christmas-could-be-limited-and-turkeys-may-have-to-come-from-europe-expert-says-12425679

    which will be fine, I'm sure. But just because we can produce something in Britain doesn't mean that it's sensible or profitable to do so, or that the supply tap can be turned on quickly.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,496

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    Stilton is overrated, Shropshire Blue is superior.
    Buxton Blue for me.
    I thought you'd go for a red cheese.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Leon said:

    Aslan said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    If they did that, Britain should ban all French fishermen from UK waters.
    I cannot think of anything more likely to boost Tory/Leaver opinion than a French blockade. It will be Fuck You, Jonny Frog

    It will likely benefit Macron, pre election, and Boris
    And that, right there, is one reason the Brexit wars, and tangentially associated matters, will continue, internally and externally. It's useful, politically.
  • gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?
    It is a big win as we will send them excess wind power in a mutually beneficial deal
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550
    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?
    Pedant alert, it comes ashore in Cambois not Blyth.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,018
    edited October 2021
    isam said:

    OT Does anyone know where I can find the Energy Price Cap actual kWh and standing charge unit prices region by region?

    The dumbed down £1,277 'price cap' figure is meaningless for me (and for everybody tbh).

    Apparently my solar panels are worth 48p per kWh at the moment, but I have no idea how to go about claiming it
    Only if you have them on a feed in tariff agreement that started before 2013. In which case you should already be getting it.

    We're only getting 18.48p per kWh for our 2013 panels, plus an assumed export to the grid of half our units at 5.5p.

    So effectively circa 24p per unit generated. Plus of course we get first dibs on the units we generate, for free.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,788

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    Nah, they won't, and no no and no again

    I am a little tipsy and feeling oddly positive, but I think within 10 years Britain will be clearly benefiting from the freedoms of Brexit: political sovereignty, higher wages, nimbler science

    And the UK will be intact, and part of a wider military/defence/intel alliance, based on the Anglophone core, successfully containing China

    I've no idea what the EU will do, however. Could go a number of routes
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,677

    Last night it was China invading Taiwan.

    Tonight it's war with France (again).

    Meanwhile, the Cranleigh East council election draws closer.

    It all happens only on PB.

    Today it was the PRC talking of war. I have cut back my shares exposed to the region. Even if there is no war, there is going to be sabre rattling which will shiver the markets.

    https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1445392153878872067?t=TJ5wyGimNZdPHI3tGfzfzQ&s=19
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,018
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    Nah, they won't, and no no and no again

    I am a little tipsy and feeling oddly positive, but I think within 10 years Britain will be clearly benefiting from the freedoms of Brexit: political sovereignty, higher wages, nimbler science

    And the UK will be intact, and part of a wider military/defence/intel alliance, based on the Anglophone core, successfully containing China

    I've no idea what the EU will do, however. Could go a number of routes
    10 years? We've already had 5 since the EUref and things have only got worse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,713
    edited October 2021

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    Why should they miss out on Christmas? They can easily buy British turkey, British potatoes, British stuffing, British cauliflower and carrots, British cranberry sauce, British Christmas puddings and British cheeses like stilton and wensleydale can be consumed instead of French cheeses. It would just be a bumper Christmas for British farmers and Australian and South African wine producers if French fishermen prevent EU food and drink exports to GB
    With the specifics of the turkeys, there were reports last week about how British farmers had hatched as many turkeys as they could process, which is not as many as Brits are likely to want to buy.

    So there's a fair chance that a proportion of the turkeys on our tables this Christmas are going to come from France;

    https://news.sky.com/story/choice-of-food-for-christmas-could-be-limited-and-turkeys-may-have-to-come-from-europe-expert-says-12425679

    which will be fine, I'm sure. But just because we can produce something in Britain doesn't mean that it's sensible or profitable to do so, or that the supply tap can be turned on quickly.
    If we can't import them and a few families have to eat British beef, British goose, British duck or British lamb, chicken or pork this Christmas (of if they are veggies British nut roasts) then so be it.

    We will not be bereft of Christmas because we cannot import French Turkey. The largest Turkey producer in the world of course is the USA, not France, so if necessary we can import some more from America too
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    Why should they miss out on Christmas? They can easily buy British turkey, British potatoes, British stuffing, British cauliflower and carrots, British cranberry sauce, British Christmas puddings and British cheeses like stilton and wensleydale can be consumed instead of French cheeses. It would just be a bumper Christmas for British farmers and Australian and South African wine producers if French fishermen prevent EU food and drink exports to GB
    Liz Truss, are you reading? Your time is now! We'll soon be importing 0% of our cheese. That is no disgrace!
    [stands up and starts singing Land of Hope and Glory]
    In Truss we Trust.

    Pass me a cracker.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,644
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly I expect Starmer do do better in Remain voting Tory marginals in London and the suburbs than in Leave voting Tory marginals in the Red Wall.

    That means he is unlikely to be able to gain enough Tory seats to even get a hung parliament let alone ensure Labour gets most seats. To become PM therefore he will likely need LD gains in Tory Remain seats in the South and SNP gains in Tory Remain seats in Scotland as well

    There aren't many Labour targets from the Tories left in London, excluding those with large Jewish populations where it's likely Labour will continue to struggle.
  • gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    Do we have to pay more for it because of Brexit?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    Nah, they won't, and no no and no again

    I am a little tipsy and feeling oddly positive, but I think within 10 years Britain will be clearly benefiting from the freedoms of Brexit: political sovereignty, higher wages, nimbler science

    And the UK will be intact, and part of a wider military/defence/intel alliance, based on the Anglophone core, successfully containing China

    I've no idea what the EU will do, however. Could go a number of routes
    10 years? We've already had 5 since the EUref and things have only got worse.
    Leave Leon to masturbate into his chips
  • Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    Stilton is overrated, Shropshire Blue is superior.
    My local Whole Foods does amazing Cropwell Bishop Stilton. Rich, creamy, tangy, mmmmmmm

    As this level it is possibly the best blue cheese in the world. Not cheap, tho, but nor is a brilliant slab of Roquefort
    I'm not impressed by Roquefort either - I prefer Bleu d'Auvergne.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    Stilton is overrated, Shropshire Blue is superior.
    My local Whole Foods does amazing Cropwell Bishop Stilton. Rich, creamy, tangy, mmmmmmm

    As this level it is possibly the best blue cheese in the world. Not cheap, tho, but nor is a brilliant slab of Roquefort
    Roquefort too salty. Fit for salads and dressings, not the cheese board.
  • kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,018
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    Stilton is overrated, Shropshire Blue is superior.
    My local Whole Foods does amazing Cropwell Bishop Stilton. Rich, creamy, tangy, mmmmmmm

    As this level it is possibly the best blue cheese in the world. Not cheap, tho, but nor is a brilliant slab of Roquefort
    Gorgonzola dolce for me every time.
  • gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,788
    edited October 2021
    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,018

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    Nah, they won't, and no no and no again

    I am a little tipsy and feeling oddly positive, but I think within 10 years Britain will be clearly benefiting from the freedoms of Brexit: political sovereignty, higher wages, nimbler science

    And the UK will be intact, and part of a wider military/defence/intel alliance, based on the Anglophone core, successfully containing China

    I've no idea what the EU will do, however. Could go a number of routes
    10 years? We've already had 5 since the EUref and things have only got worse.
    We spent all of that time either arguing about whether to go ahead with Brexit or dealing with a pandemic. The world is entering a difficult period and the test of Brexit will be how we navigate the new environment, not anything that happened in the last 5 years.
    Well it's going swimmingly so far (!)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    Nah, they won't, and no no and no again

    I am a little tipsy and feeling oddly positive, but I think within 10 years Britain will be clearly benefiting from the freedoms of Brexit: political sovereignty, higher wages, nimbler science

    And the UK will be intact, and part of a wider military/defence/intel alliance, based on the Anglophone core, successfully containing China

    I've no idea what the EU will do, however. Could go a number of routes
    10 years? We've already had 5 since the EUref and things have only got worse.
    We spent all of that time either arguing about whether to go ahead with Brexit or dealing with a pandemic. The world is entering a difficult period and the test of Brexit will be how we navigate the new environment, not anything that happened in the last 5 years.
    That's true, but the events of the past 5 years on various matters do not fill me with confidence about our government's ability to navigate that new environment effectively.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    Nah, they won't, and no no and no again

    I am a little tipsy and feeling oddly positive, but I think within 10 years Britain will be clearly benefiting from the freedoms of Brexit: political sovereignty, higher wages, nimbler science

    And the UK will be intact, and part of a wider military/defence/intel alliance, based on the Anglophone core, successfully containing China

    I've no idea what the EU will do, however. Could go a number of routes
    10 years? We've already had 5 since the EUref and things have only got worse.
    We spent all of that time either arguing about whether to go ahead with Brexit or dealing with a pandemic. The world is entering a difficult period and the test of Brexit will be how we navigate the new environment, not anything that happened in the last 5 years.
    The test of Brexit is wether the next five years are going to be a miserable combination of high inflation and decline, or not.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,018

    kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
    Of course they're available for order... but will they be delivered?
  • kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
    Of course they're available for order... but will they be delivered?
    Apparently so
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,804
    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    "Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?"

    We've got some. At Grain, Dragon and South Hook LNG terminals.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    Stilton is overrated, Shropshire Blue is superior.
    Buxton Blue for me.
    I thought you'd go for a red cheese.
    Only when in Leicester.

    My favourite cheese is crumbly Lancashire TBH.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    Nah, they won't, and no no and no again

    I am a little tipsy and feeling oddly positive, but I think within 10 years Britain will be clearly benefiting from the freedoms of Brexit: political sovereignty, higher wages, nimbler science

    And the UK will be intact, and part of a wider military/defence/intel alliance, based on the Anglophone core, successfully containing China

    I've no idea what the EU will do, however. Could go a number of routes
    10 years? We've already had 5 since the EUref and things have only got worse.
    We spent all of that time either arguing about whether to go ahead with Brexit or dealing with a pandemic. The world is entering a difficult period and the test of Brexit will be how we navigate the new environment, not anything that happened in the last 5 years.
    Wise words
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,713
    edited October 2021
    The Senedd approves mandatory vaccine passports by 1 vote after a Conservative Member with Zoom issues was not allowed to vote
    'https://twitter.com/RWTaylors/status/1445445022535413762?s=20
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,804

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?
    Pedant alert, it comes ashore in Cambois not Blyth.
    A graphic on Sky said Blythe.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,823
    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    What would you estimate the rate of false allegations to be?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550
    HYUFD said:

    The Senedd approves vaccine passports by 1 vote after a Conservative Member with Zoom issues was not allowed to vote
    'https://twitter.com/RWTaylors/status/1445445022535413762?s=20

    Sounds like the kind of rule Jacob Rees Mogg would come up with
  • Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    Maitlis has very few claims to ever having exhibited any journalistic rigour. She just tries to Paxman everyone she doesn't like.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,115

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?
    Pedant alert, it comes ashore in Cambois not Blyth.
    Northumberland pedantry. A double whammy.
    More please!
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
    Of course they're available for order... but will they be delivered?
    We are only a fifth down on Turkey’s, can they let us carry on ordering without being sure they can deliver?

    Is this going to be a pure free market Xmas, packages that flapped off the back of a lorry exchanged at 2am on allotments and under railway bridges?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,788

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    Stilton is overrated, Shropshire Blue is superior.
    My local Whole Foods does amazing Cropwell Bishop Stilton. Rich, creamy, tangy, mmmmmmm

    As this level it is possibly the best blue cheese in the world. Not cheap, tho, but nor is a brilliant slab of Roquefort
    Gorgonzola dolce for me every time.
    Too meek, for me. Nice but TOO creamy and mild

    If I'm having a blue cheese I want it to hit home. Salty, punchy and UMAMI

    The problem with Stilton previously is that it was mass produced with crap ingredients and sold at the wrong temperature and/or age. Now cheese makers are getting it right, and it is a sensational cheese. The King, indeed. As it once was
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,987
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    At some point the penny will drop on a clear majority of the population that we're suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, which HMG is doing f*ck-all to heal.
    No, it won't. Sorry
    No, probably not. Just a shite decade of disruption and decline ahead then. ☹️

    Edit: the Scots will certainly realise it. And the Northern Irish and Welsh probably. By which time it will be little England all alone going down the drain.
    Nah, they won't, and no no and no again

    I am a little tipsy and feeling oddly positive, but I think within 10 years Britain will be clearly benefiting from the freedoms of Brexit: political sovereignty, higher wages, nimbler science

    And the UK will be intact, and part of a wider military/defence/intel alliance, based on the Anglophone core, successfully containing China

    I've no idea what the EU will do, however. Could go a number of routes
    More than a little tipsy I think , deluded sounds more realistic.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,018
    edited October 2021

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Our house built in 1960 runs just fine on an air-source heat pump.

    Then again we did put 100mm of insulation on the outside of the walls filled the cavities put 300mm in the roof, added triple glazing, insulated the floors.

    But in general you're right.
  • gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    BBC did a feature on them this evening and the expert indicated they would be as cheap as gas combi boiler with a couple of years

    And in our case our 1972 home is fully insulated
  • I do wonder if sitting Republicans are going to be primaried by anti-vaxxers:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-shout-down-rep-lindsey-graham-for-pushing-vaccine
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021

    Foxy said:

    I agree the brexit factor will play a part and if Boris has been seen to increase wages and we have made progress on trade deals then brexit and the lib dems perceived advantage will be diminished, but if not then yes it could play well for the lib dems

    Too early to call in my opinion

    Yes, but as payrises spread into other areas, and into pensions via the triple lock, without increased output, then it is loss of competitiveness in the economy, which then sucks in imports (from trade deals, like Australian meat) and depreciation of Sterling.

    Unless payrises are for more output, they alter only the distribution of the economy, not its size. So a levelling up in one place is a levelling down in another. If those places levelled down are in the Blue SE Shires, then the header is quite ominous.
    Why would there not be an increase in productivity?

    As costs for labour get competitively driven up it becomes in businesses interests to look at where they can boost productivity. Can they invest in new infrastructure, new equipment etc

    Technology is constantly adapting, do you really think boosting productivity is impossible? Higher wages incentivises higher investment.
    The initial effect of higher wages is to increase costs. You then need to improve productivity just to stand still - it doesn't follow that such an increase will happen automatically.
    Indeed. And since all business are stricving to improve profitability all the time, why @Philip_Thompson thinks they'd wait until wage costs rise suddenly is beyond me.
    Because if the costs are low enough then it's not worth investigating in productivity boosting equipment.

    If four men can do what one man and some equipment can do, for cheaper, them why invest in the equipment? As costs change, that cost/benefit analysis changes too.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,823

    kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
    Of course they're available for order... but will they be delivered?
    I expect so, but a lot of people who are used to buying without ordering in advance will find that they are disappointed. My wife has expressed a preference for roast beef this year, so we'll probably do our bit to minimise the turkey crisis of 2021.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,115

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?
    Pedant alert, it comes ashore in Cambois not Blyth.
    A graphic on Sky said Blythe.
    That's the spirit!
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    "Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?"

    We've got some. At Grain, Dragon and South Hook LNG terminals.
    Is it wise to let a dragon look after a giant can of gas?
  • Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    It seems fairly obvious that unreported rapes, that are not in the alleged column, significantly outweigh the alleged but untrue rapes.

    So the real answer is going to be much less than 1% of actual rapes end in a successful prosecution. If you include repeated rapes in marriage and long term relationships I would not be surprised if it is less than 0.1% of rapes that end in a conviction.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    edited October 2021

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    What would you estimate the rate of false allegations to be?
    That seems like an impossible question to answer. Who could possibly estimate it? But is it unreasonable to point out that for all the flaws that make securing a conviction harder than it already would be with the requirements of burdens of proof, we cannot simply presume that every allegation that does end in a conviction is a failure of the system? Using the word alleged doesn't undermine that, it's just things are alleged until proven.

    I mean for a start, not every rape will even lead to a criminal complaint unfortunately, so the number leading to successful prosecution might be even less, as noneoftheabove speculates.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,018

    kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
    Of course they're available for order... but will they be delivered?
    I expect so, but a lot of people who are used to buying without ordering in advance will find that they are disappointed. My wife has expressed a preference for roast beef this year, so we'll probably do our bit to minimise the turkey crisis of 2021.
    Yep we're off to the farm shop tomorrow to pre-order a rib of beef for Christmas day. You can't beat it imo.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,713
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly I expect Starmer do do better in Remain voting Tory marginals in London and the suburbs than in Leave voting Tory marginals in the Red Wall.

    That means he is unlikely to be able to gain enough Tory seats to even get a hung parliament let alone ensure Labour gets most seats. To become PM therefore he will likely need LD gains in Tory Remain seats in the South and SNP gains in Tory Remain seats in Scotland as well

    There aren't many Labour targets from the Tories left in London, excluding those with large Jewish populations where it's likely Labour will continue to struggle.
    Chingford and Woodford Green, Kensington, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Cities of London and Westminster, Uxbridge and Ruislip South, Harrow East all Tory Remain seats in London (except Uxbridge) in the top 100 Labour target seats. Starmer's wife is Jewish and Labour could well gain Barnet next year in the London local elections given Corbyn is gone and so Jewish voters will be less scared to vote Labour
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    isam said:

    OT Does anyone know where I can find the Energy Price Cap actual kWh and standing charge unit prices region by region?

    The dumbed down £1,277 'price cap' figure is meaningless for me (and for everybody tbh).

    Apparently my solar panels are worth 48p per kWh at the moment, but I have no idea how to go about claiming it
    Only if you have them on a feed in tariff agreement that started before 2013. In which case you should already be getting it.

    We're only getting 18.48p per kWh for our 2013 panels, plus an assumed export to the grid of half our units at 5.5p.

    So effectively circa 24p per unit generated. Plus of course we get first dibs on the units we generate, for free.
    We bought a house with the panels on in June, and apparently we bought the panels too, but I don’t know how to go about doing anything about it! I’ll get there one day
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,788

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    What would you estimate the rate of false allegations to be?
    I have read widely on this subject and the honest answer is: no one knows. It is so hard to break down, in a reliable way

    Estimates range from the lowest - 2% of claims are false - (a figure first put about by a feminist group in NYC, aided by Susan Brownmiller, in the 1970s!) - to as many as 40% (the estimate of some forensic scientists in the 1990s)

    Basically: nobody knows - and maybe they never will, given the enigmatic nature of the crime, because consent is an ambiguous concept (but we should still try to know). But it is highly irresponsible for someone as influential as Maitlis to say "1.9% of rapes end in a charge". For a start she is telling women: don't bother complaining about rape, you won't be heard, and the rapists always get away with it

    This is dangerous nonsense. More than 50% of rape trials, in the UK, end in a conviction. Maybe she should tell women THAT. At least it has the advantage of being true
  • kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
    Of course they're available for order... but will they be delivered?
    I expect so, but a lot of people who are used to buying without ordering in advance will find that they are disappointed. My wife has expressed a preference for roast beef this year, so we'll probably do our bit to minimise the turkey crisis of 2021.
    Actually the family were going to go for beef and chicken last year but of course Christmas was cancelled and we each stayed in our own homes
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    BBC did a feature on them this evening and the expert indicated they would be as cheap as gas combi boiler with a couple of years

    And in our case our 1972 home is fully insulated
    I did heat loss calculations to size air and ground source heat pumps professionally for a year and a half. I assure you that your 1972 home is not “fully insulated”.
  • Boris speech tomorrow so of to sleep so to be fresh for what could be an amusing however long it takes bluster

    Good night folks
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550
    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,788

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    It seems fairly obvious that unreported rapes, that are not in the alleged column, significantly outweigh the alleged but untrue rapes.

    So the real answer is going to be much less than 1% of actual rapes end in a successful prosecution. If you include repeated rapes in marriage and long term relationships I would not be surprised if it is less than 0.1% of rapes that end in a conviction.
    if they are unreported, by definition you have no fucking clue how many there are. There might be seven trillion a minute

    I am not attempting to minimise the scale of violence against women. The Everard case sobers us all, stuff we all see daily. But if you are a senior British TV journalist you can't run out with clearly bogus statistics aimed at furthering your agenda (which might change tomorrow). This turns the BBC into DailyExpressNews.

    I won't pay for it. Either the BBC shapes up or it can fuck off
  • gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    BBC did a feature on them this evening and the expert indicated they would be as cheap as gas combi boiler with a couple of years

    And in our case our 1972 home is fully insulated
    I did heat loss calculations to size air and ground source heat pumps professionally for a year and a half. I assure you that your 1972 home is not “fully insulated”.
    In that case why is the industry misleading everyone over heat pumps as the alternative to gas combi boilers

    I am not questioning you though
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    BBC did a feature on them this evening and the expert indicated they would be as cheap as gas combi boiler with a couple of years

    And in our case our 1972 home is fully insulated
    I did heat loss calculations to size air and ground source heat pumps professionally for a year and a half. I assure you that your 1972 home is not “fully insulated”.
    In that case why is the industry misleading everyone over heat pumps as the alternative to gas combi boilers

    I am not questioning you though
    They’re an alternative for sure but that doesn’t mean they’re right for everyone. The industry obviously wants to make everyone rip out their 1k combis and install 5k heat pumps I can imagine.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,644
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly I expect Starmer do do better in Remain voting Tory marginals in London and the suburbs than in Leave voting Tory marginals in the Red Wall.

    That means he is unlikely to be able to gain enough Tory seats to even get a hung parliament let alone ensure Labour gets most seats. To become PM therefore he will likely need LD gains in Tory Remain seats in the South and SNP gains in Tory Remain seats in Scotland as well

    There aren't many Labour targets from the Tories left in London, excluding those with large Jewish populations where it's likely Labour will continue to struggle.
    Chingford and Woodford Green, Kensington, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Cities of London and Westminster, Uxbridge and Ruislip South, Harrow East all Tory Remain seats in London (except Uxbridge) in the top 100 Labour target seats. Starmer's wife is Jewish and Labour could well gain Barnet next year in the London local elections given Corbyn is gone and so Jewish voters will be less scared to vote Labour
    It'll be interesting to see how many of those seats survive the boundary review. Losing some of them may end up being priced into the notional results.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,018
    isam said:

    isam said:

    OT Does anyone know where I can find the Energy Price Cap actual kWh and standing charge unit prices region by region?

    The dumbed down £1,277 'price cap' figure is meaningless for me (and for everybody tbh).

    Apparently my solar panels are worth 48p per kWh at the moment, but I have no idea how to go about claiming it
    Only if you have them on a feed in tariff agreement that started before 2013. In which case you should already be getting it.

    We're only getting 18.48p per kWh for our 2013 panels, plus an assumed export to the grid of half our units at 5.5p.

    So effectively circa 24p per unit generated. Plus of course we get first dibs on the units we generate, for free.
    We bought a house with the panels on in June, and apparently we bought the panels too, but I don’t know how to go about doing anything about it! I’ll get there one day
    That's almost certainly good news for you then! The Feed in Tariffs (FITs) stay with the house so you should get the benefit. The previous owners should let you know who the FIT account is with (not necessarily the same company that supplies your electricity).

    Don't leave it too long - it'll only get harder to resolve. There's a danger the FITs are still being paid into the previous owners account, although if it works like ours, we have to tell the FIT company (Utility Warehouse in our case) the FIT meter readings each month for them to pay us. But if we miss a month we just get two months next time because the next meter reading covers two months of generation, so short-term, it's not crucial.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,440
    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    A small proportion of alleged rapes will be false. But a higher (than that) number of actual rapes will likely be unreported and so not alleged. Therefore the true number of actual rapes that end in (whatever Emily said) will likely be LOWER than 1.6%. Hence the sentiment that rape is effectively decriminalised. Not that I have any easy answers as to how to rectify this. It's a difficult offence to prove beyond reasonable doubt. Although a shoestring criminal justice system can't be helping.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    Why should they miss out on Christmas? They can easily buy British turkey, British potatoes, British stuffing, British cauliflower and carrots, British cranberry sauce, British Christmas puddings and British cheeses like stilton and wensleydale can be consumed instead of French cheeses. It would just be a bumper Christmas for British farmers and Australian and South African wine producers if French fishermen prevent EU food and drink exports to GB
    With the specifics of the turkeys, there were reports last week about how British farmers had hatched as many turkeys as they could process, which is not as many as Brits are likely to want to buy.

    So there's a fair chance that a proportion of the turkeys on our tables this Christmas are going to come from France;

    https://news.sky.com/story/choice-of-food-for-christmas-could-be-limited-and-turkeys-may-have-to-come-from-europe-expert-says-12425679

    which will be fine, I'm sure. But just because we can produce something in Britain doesn't mean that it's sensible or profitable to do so, or that the supply tap can be turned on quickly.
    If we can't import them and a few families have to eat British beef, British goose, British duck or British lamb, chicken or pork this Christmas (of if they are veggies British nut roasts) then so be it.

    We will not be bereft of Christmas because we cannot import French Turkey. The largest Turkey producer in the world of course is the USA, not France, so if necessary we can import some more from America too
    The reports last week also said Poland, unlikely to be as, French about supplying us.

    It’s 4M UK Turkey chicks as opposed to usual 5M.

    If the Mail does provoke it’s paper selling panic it wants, what sort of Christmas items are likely to be a problem? It’s normally a panic anyway isn’t it, to get the last Penelope Action Island out there?

    On the import from US angle, a lot of my favourite things I used to get from US, through things like Amazon and eBay, are the things I can’t get the last two years, not problem with EU stuff. Has anyone else noticed the same thing?

    My favourite personal lube, that comes from US I just can’t get anymore. It’s causing friction in my life. 😕
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,115

    Boris speech tomorrow so of to sleep so to be fresh for what could be an amusing however long it takes bluster

    Good night folks

    I'm staying up late and drinking heavily with a strong wish that I will have the karma to kip through it.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,386
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    It seems fairly obvious that unreported rapes, that are not in the alleged column, significantly outweigh the alleged but untrue rapes.

    So the real answer is going to be much less than 1% of actual rapes end in a successful prosecution. If you include repeated rapes in marriage and long term relationships I would not be surprised if it is less than 0.1% of rapes that end in a conviction.
    if they are unreported, by definition you have no fucking clue how many there are. There might be seven trillion a minute

    I am not attempting to minimise the scale of violence against women. The Everard case sobers us all, stuff we all see daily. But if you are a senior British TV journalist you can't run out with clearly bogus statistics aimed at furthering your agenda (which might change tomorrow). This turns the BBC into DailyExpressNews.

    I won't pay for it. Either the BBC shapes up or it can fuck off
    "if they are unreported, by definition you have no fucking clue how many there are"
    That's not true, by the way. There are other ways to gather crime statistics than to just look at complaints made to the police.

    "The Everard case sobers us all"
    Well, not all of us, sadly.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,788
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    A small proportion of alleged rapes will be false. But a higher (than that) number of actual rapes will likely be unreported and so not alleged. Therefore the true number of actual rapes that end in (whatever Emily said) will likely be LOWER than 1.6%. Hence the sentiment that rape is effectively decriminalised. Not that I have any easy answers as to how to rectify this. It's a difficult offence to prove beyond reasonable doubt. Although a shoestring criminal justice system can't be helping.
    You are the definition of a golf club bore, but, weirdly, from the Left

    You've no idea what you are talking about, you just like hearing your own opinions, even though you know they are flatulent and useless, hence the dribbling way you tail off, here

    Otherwise, good comment
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,018

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    Isn't the key to successful use of heat pumps underfloor heating which operates effectively at much lower water temperatures than rads?

    Insulation has the same beneficial impact whichever heating suystem you use surely?
  • Foxy said:

    I agree the brexit factor will play a part and if Boris has been seen to increase wages and we have made progress on trade deals then brexit and the lib dems perceived advantage will be diminished, but if not then yes it could play well for the lib dems

    Too early to call in my opinion

    Yes, but as payrises spread into other areas, and into pensions via the triple lock, without increased output, then it is loss of competitiveness in the economy, which then sucks in imports (from trade deals, like Australian meat) and depreciation of Sterling.

    Unless payrises are for more output, they alter only the distribution of the economy, not its size. So a levelling up in one place is a levelling down in another. If those places levelled down are in the Blue SE Shires, then the header is quite ominous.
    Why would there not be an increase in productivity?

    As costs for labour get competitively driven up it becomes in businesses interests to look at where they can boost productivity. Can they invest in new infrastructure, new equipment etc

    Technology is constantly adapting, do you really think boosting productivity is impossible? Higher wages incentivises higher investment.
    Two things.

    First, as things stand, the act of putting GB in a potentially different market space to our neighbours inevitably puts a bit of friction and inefficiency in where it didn't exist before. It's possible that it unlocks other possibilities, but at the moment, we're not clear what they are.

    To take the HGV example, a driver who can drive freely around the whole of Europe will be more productive than one who is constrained in what they can do in the EEA. The first one has options that aren't open to the second. Their routes can be planned to be more productive and profitable. So the starting point is that British drivers have less productive potential now than they did in 2019. It may be possible to overcome that disadvantage, but that's not the starting point.

    (If the EU does issue 5000 5 year HGV visas, it will be an interesting experiment in how big that disadvantage is. Because it seems likely that those drivers will be worth more to their employers and be paid more as a result.)

    Second, let's unpick that "businesses will be forced to invest in boosting productivity" line. If such productivity boosts existed and were worthwhile, I would expect someone to be using them already. After all, lower cost workers + training / machinery ought to beat lower cost workers without such benefits. And if they don't, is the training/machinery much of a boon anyway?

    This is Thatcherite economics 101; if you have to bribe or force an industry into doing something, it's probably not worth doing. Because if it is worth doing, some bright entrepreneurial spark will do it and prosper mightily thereby.

    And without that, we're left with trying to buck the employment market by paying some groups of employees more than the financial value of their work can sustain. Which may be the right social aim, but we need to find another way of attaining that aim. Because Thatcherite economics 102 is the lesson about the buckability of the market.
    But there's a fallacy in your 101 and 102.

    There's no need to "buck the market", nor for the sparks to have already prospered, because the facts of the market have changed.

    102: We now have a different market to what we had in the past. Quite literally by leaving the Single Market. So the option of shipping people around for minimum wage like they rather than goods are the commodity being traded has come to an end.

    Quite possible to have an order of profitability being:
    Hiring 4 people paid peanuts > Hiring 1 person on a good salary plus investing in new equipment for them to use > Hiring 4 people paid a good salary

    The middle option improves productivity and is ideal overall. The first option is what the Single Market encouraged.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    It seems fairly obvious that unreported rapes, that are not in the alleged column, significantly outweigh the alleged but untrue rapes.

    So the real answer is going to be much less than 1% of actual rapes end in a successful prosecution. If you include repeated rapes in marriage and long term relationships I would not be surprised if it is less than 0.1% of rapes that end in a conviction.
    if they are unreported, by definition you have no fucking clue how many there are. There might be seven trillion a minute

    I am not attempting to minimise the scale of violence against women. The Everard case sobers us all, stuff we all see daily. But if you are a senior British TV journalist you can't run out with clearly bogus statistics aimed at furthering your agenda (which might change tomorrow). This turns the BBC into DailyExpressNews.

    I won't pay for it. Either the BBC shapes up or it can fuck off
    Can I play unders at seven trillion a minute? I'll take 1.01, if we are talking this planet and just counting one personality per person. I don't need to know how many there are to know that there are more unreported cases than there are fake reported cases, I just need to listen.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    isam said:

    isam said:

    OT Does anyone know where I can find the Energy Price Cap actual kWh and standing charge unit prices region by region?

    The dumbed down £1,277 'price cap' figure is meaningless for me (and for everybody tbh).

    Apparently my solar panels are worth 48p per kWh at the moment, but I have no idea how to go about claiming it
    Only if you have them on a feed in tariff agreement that started before 2013. In which case you should already be getting it.

    We're only getting 18.48p per kWh for our 2013 panels, plus an assumed export to the grid of half our units at 5.5p.

    So effectively circa 24p per unit generated. Plus of course we get first dibs on the units we generate, for free.
    We bought a house with the panels on in June, and apparently we bought the panels too, but I don’t know how to go about doing anything about it! I’ll get there one day
    That's almost certainly good news for you then! The Feed in Tariffs (FITs) stay with the house so you should get the benefit. The previous owners should let you know who the FIT account is with (not necessarily the same company that supplies your electricity).

    Don't leave it too long - it'll only get harder to resolve. There's a danger the FITs are still being paid into the previous owners account, although if it works like ours, we have to tell the FIT company (Utility Warehouse in our case) the FIT meter readings each month for them to pay us. But if we miss a month we just get two months next time because the next meter reading covers two months of generation, so short-term, it's not crucial.
    Nice one, thank you
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    Isn't the key to successful use of heat pumps underfloor heating which operates effectively at much lower water temperatures than rads?

    Insulation has the same beneficial impact whichever heating suystem you use surely?
    Yeah you need good insulation in order to be able to heat your home with the low flow temperature. That can either be through bigger radiators or the biggest radiator of them all (underfloor heating).

    The advantage of gas is that it can cycle on and off quickly and relatively painlessly. Heat pumps work best running low and slow heating up a heat store (such as a volume of water or a screed floor).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,788
    While we're on BRITISH BLUE CHEESES

    I'm going to put in a vote for Blacksticks Blue

    Truly excellent


    https://www.waitrose.com/ecom/products/blacksticks-blue/540201-747672-747673
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,440

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    It seems fairly obvious that unreported rapes, that are not in the alleged column, significantly outweigh the alleged but untrue rapes.

    So the real answer is going to be much less than 1% of actual rapes end in a successful prosecution. If you include repeated rapes in marriage and long term relationships I would not be surprised if it is less than 0.1% of rapes that end in a conviction.
    Faster typer than me. 🙂

    But yes. The overall message that the vast majority of rapists are not brought to book is accurate.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888
    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,496

    kinabalu said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    Looks like we will just have to swap stilton for brie and drink English and Australian wines.

    Who has French Turkey and French Christmas puddings anyway? It is normally British all the way
    No. You are completely missing it. Take another look. Fuel stockpiling madness stoked by front pages like this. The front of this paper is saying other families are stockpiling for Christmas what are you going to do wait till it’s too late?

    If the Mail gets away with this and it takes hold, it will dwarf closed petrol pumps and bog roll banditry. Your family missing out on Christmas has the most strong emotive pull.
    It doesn't bear thinking about. End of Johnson if it happens. Not even he would be able to spin Christmas dinner out of a tin as a Brexit dividend.
    Off Topic anecdote alert.

    The huge Tesco on Western Avenue in Cardiff had a rather forlorn looking seasonal aisle this evening. I just assumed the lazy staff hadn't restocked the shelves. To be fair I really don't need a bumper tin of Quality Street, so good on Johnson.

    Mrs Mexicanpete visiting her mother in her old people's home found the Manager making Mother-In-Law's breakfast. Staff shortages to the bone apparently. They must have all retrained as HGV tanker drivers.
    Just done a search on line and plenty of turkeys available for order and door to door delivery in December
    It was just all the Christmas tat plus sweets cakes and biscuits. None of which any of us need.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,788
    Shit it's midnight and I have nothing to watch. Squid Game was superb. Midnight Mass is shite

    HELP
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    Not sure what difference it makes when firms can easily pay under minimum wage
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,193

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    BBC did a feature on them this evening and the expert indicated they would be as cheap as gas combi boiler with a couple of years

    And in our case our 1972 home is fully insulated
    I did heat loss calculations to size air and ground source heat pumps professionally for a year and a half. I assure you that your 1972 home is not “fully insulated”.
    In that case why is the industry misleading everyone over heat pumps as the alternative to gas combi boilers

    I am not questioning you though
    Prediction: talk of heat pumps and hydrogen will be dumped by Tory ministers and Johnson the day after COp21 ends.

  • Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,246

    See some in the PLP trying to get Barry Gardiner to challenge SKS.

    Not a huge fan but anyone is better than SKS

    Ha ha. I've got a better chance of being the next Labour Party leader than Barry Gardiner. So have you (if you rejoin).
    What exactly was Gardo doing at the 1922 Committee meeting yesterday? Anyone have a scooby?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,193
    In 1972 we had the oil shock. Are we living thru the gas shock?





    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    If I was the British government, I would be rather worried about this chart; very, very worried. UK natural gas has now breached the equivalent to $40 per million Btu barrier (~300 pence per therm). In oil terms, it's now trading above $230 per barrel of oil equivalent.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,829
    gealbhan said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    It's a tabloid using the word "could", so usual rule applies.

    How are those three defectors coming along?
    Outside of the Tory and Momentum dirty tricks units, in the real world, it’s not impossible some high profile lefties could jump to the Greens?
    If one just goes by policy platforms, yes, absolutely. But culturally they're very different, which is why the Greens continue to stand against Corbynite candidates. Labour leftists are predominantly anti-capitalist and worried about poverty, especially in the Third World, and their greenery is a secondary effect - they feel big business is among other things wrecking the planet. Greens are predominantly counter-culture - they have almost no interest in trade unions and they're only anti-capitalist because they see capitalism as part of the establishment culture. I know this sounds all a bit People's Front of Judea if you're not close to it, but they are really very different animals.

    At lower level all this is less true - people switch parties for all kinds of reasons, often to do with personal likings or animosities.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,115

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,246

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    It's a tabloid using the word "could", so usual rule applies.

    How are those three defectors coming along?
    Several PBers were obsequiously congratulating MrEd on Sunday for successfully identifying one of the trio. In all fairness, nobody else in the world has identified any of them.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    Shit it's midnight and I have nothing to watch. Squid Game was superb. Midnight Mass is shite

    HELP

    I found an Opera on the net based on Breaking The Waves I thought was very good.

    I don’t know if that helps at all?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,193
    As far as I can see from my bills, I am paying 5p kWh for gas roughly.

    It is now 20x that wholesale. :unamused:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,115

    See some in the PLP trying to get Barry Gardiner to challenge SKS.

    Not a huge fan but anyone is better than SKS

    Ha ha. I've got a better chance of being the next Labour Party leader than Barry Gardiner. So have you (if you rejoin).
    What exactly was Gardo doing at the 1922 Committee meeting yesterday? Anyone have a scooby?
    He's one of the three defectors. RLB and Sultana are the other two my sources assure me.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,193
    gealbhan said:

    Leon said:

    Shit it's midnight and I have nothing to watch. Squid Game was superb. Midnight Mass is shite

    HELP

    I found an Opera on the net based on Breaking The Waves I thought was very good.

    I don’t know if that helps at all?
    One of the most obscure references in a long time on PB. :smiley:

    (NB: Wonderful film).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,440
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    A small proportion of alleged rapes will be false. But a higher (than that) number of actual rapes will likely be unreported and so not alleged. Therefore the true number of actual rapes that end in (whatever Emily said) will likely be LOWER than 1.6%. Hence the sentiment that rape is effectively decriminalised. Not that I have any easy answers as to how to rectify this. It's a difficult offence to prove beyond reasonable doubt. Although a shoestring criminal justice system can't be helping.
    You are the definition of a golf club bore, but, weirdly, from the Left

    You've no idea what you are talking about, you just like hearing your own opinions, even though you know they are flatulent and useless, hence the dribbling way you tail off, here

    Otherwise, good comment
    Merely explaining your misinterpretation of the data around this issue. And did so - I thought - in a fairly crisp and 'assertive but not aggressive' manner. Just like they tell you to do in those Dale Carnegie lessons. So, surprising response from you. I will log off now and try to think of other things.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,115
    edited October 2021

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    It's a tabloid using the word "could", so usual rule applies.

    How are those three defectors coming along?
    Several PBers were obsequiously congratulating MrEd on Sunday for successfully identifying one of the trio. In all fairness, nobody else in the world has identified any of them.
    What’s more he didn't. That came much earlier in the discussion via the Vote UK forum.
    Nonetheless. If there were only one, it would be him.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550
    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    the increase in Gas production in Norway, do we get any of that or does it all go to the EU?

    We are receiving hydro electric power from Norway now at a connector coming ashore in Blyth in an exclusive UK - Norway deal
    🤙 That’s a win.

    But not good news on the extra Norway gas then, Dozy Daisy gets it?

    Can the UK build some like giant gas jerrycan things?

    Your the one Big G who suggested two weeks ago, new gas combi is the only future proof option.

    It’s been a long two weeks, any second thoughts?

    Governments been planting story’s in the press about plans for a gas attack
    Gas combi will be replaced with heat pumps within the next few years once the price has fallen from £10,000
    No they won’t - you need good insulation for heat pumps. They’re only really suitable for homes built within the last 20 years.
    Really?

    But the government is definitely floating in the press resolve to push everything electric very quickly aren’t they?
    They’ll work but they won’t be very efficient as you’ll need a high flow temperature through the rads. The price of gas vs electric will obviously dictate whether there’s money to be saved
    So… hold on a mo 🤔.

    What happens in older houses when gas becomes that much more expensive than electric and runs out completely?
    Biomass
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,277
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    Shit it's midnight and I have nothing to watch. Squid Game was superb. Midnight Mass is shite

    HELP

    Inspired by your Blacksticks Blue description 'A Taste of the Unexpected' I'll recommend 'Tales of the Unexpected' on YouTube.

    Some of them are very clever stories and all over and done with in half an hour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,193

    gealbhan said:

    Leon said:

    “French threat to sink Xmas”
    image

    OOOOH

    WARRRR
    It's a tabloid using the word "could", so usual rule applies.

    How are those three defectors coming along?
    Outside of the Tory and Momentum dirty tricks units, in the real world, it’s not impossible some high profile lefties could jump to the Greens?
    If one just goes by policy platforms, yes, absolutely. But culturally they're very different, which is why the Greens continue to stand against Corbynite candidates. Labour leftists are predominantly anti-capitalist and worried about poverty, especially in the Third World, and their greenery is a secondary effect - they feel big business is among other things wrecking the planet. Greens are predominantly counter-culture - they have almost no interest in trade unions and they're only anti-capitalist because they see capitalism as part of the establishment culture. I know this sounds all a bit People's Front of Judea if you're not close to it, but they are really very different animals.

    At lower level all this is less true - people switch parties for all kinds of reasons, often to do with personal likings or animosities.
    It varies in the Green movement. Porritt always used to use the line 'no climate/ecology justice without social justice', as in people who were desperate poverty-wise could never sign up to the long term environment. They had other matters in hand so to speak.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,550

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    Wages keeping up with inflation? I’ll believe it when I see it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,823
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Emily Maitlis just said, repeatedly:

    "1.6% of rapes end in a successful prosecution" then she said "1.6% end in a charge"

    This is an outright lie, however she puts it. Also, a dangerously misleading lie. 1.6% of ALLEGED rapes end in Whatever Maitlis Says

    ALLEGED is a long way from ACTUAL

    This is no better than Fox News. Indeed, worse. Fuck the BBC. If you want the licence fee then make sure your flagship news programme gets stuff like this completely right.

    The women of this country have a huge and justified grievance against the police, as we all know. And the judicial system, perhaps. But trotting out ridiculous statistical lies is beyond irresponsible

    What would you estimate the rate of false allegations to be?
    I have read widely on this subject and the honest answer is: no one knows. It is so hard to break down, in a reliable way

    Estimates range from the lowest - 2% of claims are false - (a figure first put about by a feminist group in NYC, aided by Susan Brownmiller, in the 1970s!) - to as many as 40% (the estimate of some forensic scientists in the 1990s)

    Basically: nobody knows - and maybe they never will, given the enigmatic nature of the crime, because consent is an ambiguous concept (but we should still try to know). But it is highly irresponsible for someone as influential as Maitlis to say "1.9% of rapes end in a charge". For a start she is telling women: don't bother complaining about rape, you won't be heard, and the rapists always get away with it

    This is dangerous nonsense. More than 50% of rape trials, in the UK, end in a conviction. Maybe she should tell women THAT. At least it has the advantage of being true
    Using the Crime Survey of England and Wales figures for 2020, 1.2 million women have experienced rape at least once since they were 16 (upto age 74), about half of those more than once, and about one-fifth more than three times, making a minimum of about 2.1 million rapes. The age range covers 58 years, so these rapes will have occurred over an average of [roughly] 29 years, making for a rough lower-bound estimate of 70,000 rapes per year.

    There were 1,439 convictions for rape in 2019-20.

    I make that 2.1% of rapes ending in a successful prosecution, as a rough upper bound.

    There are doubtless many things wrong with the citation of the statistic, but it looks like it is pretty accurate.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021

    dixiedean said:

    Boris to commit to minimum wage of £10.50 an hr by 2024.

    Leaving the useless nonentity £10ph look exactly what it is ie pathetic.

    SKS is foikin useless at this Politics lark.

    PB ahead of the curve, we said that £10ph is less than what it would be by 2024 anyway.
    Won't look so bloody clever when he's driven inflation into double figures, mind.
    Double digit inflation could be just what we need.

    We've had over 6% inflation for decades now for prices in things like houses, but wages hasn't kept up. If double-digit inflation happened now with wages keeping up but assets not then that would reverse the errors of the last couple of decades and take us back to a time where people could work hard and progress up the ladders. It'd be a transfer from those on fixed incomes, to those actually working for a living.

    I see nothing wrong with that now.
    Wages keeping up with inflation? I’ll believe it when I see it.
    It hasn't happened in recent decades, so time to shake it up.

    But people are crying havoc about a wage led inflation now, instead of a cost-led inflation. Suck it up and pay people a fair market wage is what I have to say.
  • In 1972 we had the oil shock. Are we living thru the gas shock?





    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    If I was the British government, I would be rather worried about this chart; very, very worried. UK natural gas has now breached the equivalent to $40 per million Btu barrier (~300 pence per therm). In oil terms, it's now trading above $230 per barrel of oil equivalent.

    There are too many different units for energy: what are any of those in joules?

    (Other popular units include ergs, calories, kWh, foot-pounds, kTonnes, and foe.)
This discussion has been closed.