Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The pre-CON conference GE betting has “hung parliament” still favourite – politicalbetting.com

135

Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Do not tell @Bigjohnowls

    Actually it is ludicrous that he has all the publicity of his speech and change in direction, we have the energy crisis and the fuel crisis and labour go down 2%

    I am being honest when I say I just do not understand it unless Corbyn has destroyed the labour brand like Ratner did his
    Wink
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,516
    Sandpit said:

    Ratters said:

    Ratters said:

    It’s also worth remembering the Bank of England has purchased an additional £400bn+ of gilts since the start of the Covid pandemic, thereby meaning the government’s net issuance hasn’t been too different to normal.

    That all ends from the end of this year. The government won’t get any further help financing its deficit. Worth bearing in mind when the budget comes along.

    While its supposed to end at the end of this year, there's every chance it could be continued past then if required.

    Don't forget additional rounds of QE following the financial crisis happened in 2012 and 2016 (from memory).
    True, but more likely the opposite in practice.

    There was a fairly damning House of Lords report into the use of QE referencing the common perception it has been used over Covid in part to finance the deficit. The Bank of England was not pleased with this and responded by setting out its plans to reduce existing QE stocks (I.e. quantitative tightening) by not reinvesting maturing gilt proceeds once rates reach 0.5%. It will consider actively selling once rates reach 1%.

    I’d put the chances of further QE next year at pretty much zero.
    While I can believe that further QE is unlikely, I find the idea of any QT at all utterly implausible.
    It’ll happen eventually, but likely in a co-ordinated manner involving most of the West’s central banks acting in unison.
    Does anyone really think that the actions of the BoE have been anything other than printing money to increase asset values, and pretending that your right hand pocket borrowing from/lending to your left hand pocket is an actual transaction?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Lady Starmer, shurely?

    Haven’t had one of those in No. 10 in a few years. Not since Lady Douglas-Home in 1964, who apparently had more changes of name than any other once–married woman due to her husband continually changing his title.
    Although in the course of 1 day my mother was called (in order):

    - Darling
    - Mrs [my father’s first name]
    - Her first name
    - Mrs [her surname]
    - Ma’am
    - Your Honour [that was an error]
    - Your Worship
    - Mum
    - The Honorable Mrs [her name]
    IF she'd somehow flown to the Deep South of the US at the end of the day (on a souped-up Concorde?) she could have added "Miss [first name]" to her list (Miss being pronouced "Miz").

    My personal theory, is that American women (and others where similar conventions apply) generally like fact that they've traditionally changed their surnames upon marriage, while still retaining their original names, at least in some situations.

    Sometimes my own Sainted Mother would use her first and middle names with my Daddy Dearest's surname. But sometimes she'd use her own original surname as her middle name, depending on context. Or just how the mood struck her.

    Interesting that rise of feminism and consequent desire and fashion of many women to NOT be required to adopt their husbands' surnames, has actually expanded the options for all women in US. Including the rise of double-barreled surnames, which when I was a boy was the preserve of high-falutin' Brits.

    Which leads me to my second theory: that MALES who were born or promoted into the Anglo-British nobility early on decided to get into the name-change (shape-shifting?) fun. Which led in time to the multitudinous names of the 14th Earl of Home.

    Among other things, must be a great way of dodging creditors!
    The other twist is marrying heiresses on the condition you take on their family name.

    We have two branches of our family who did that and chose to became cadets of the main family
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    Petrol stations run dry, fights break out at forecourts and the army are brought in to stem the chaos,

    @bbclaurak and all the right wing journalists do there best to claim SKS is an asset

    and the Tories' lead... goes up.

    Get the useless nonentity out and Burnham a seat NOW
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    Petrol stations run dry, fights break out at forecourts and the army are brought in to stem the chaos,

    @bbclaurak and all the right wing journalists do there best to claim SKS is an asset

    and the Tories' lead... goes up.

    Get the useless nonentity out and Burnham a seat NOW

    MoE change.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667

    Petrol stations run dry*, fights break out at forecourts and the army are brought in to stem the chaos,

    @bbclaurak and all the right wing journalists do there best to claim SKS is an asset

    and the Tories' lead... goes up.

    Get the useless nonentity out and Burnham a seat NOW

    *Apart from the Asda in Wales
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    I wonder what a psychiatrist would make of Johnsons obsession with dressing in costume? Thatcher used to do it to a limited extent but nothing like Johnson. I can only think of Grayson Perry who comes close. Prince Charles in his younger days went through a phase but it didn't last. The danger is that where the leader goes others follow, Already Sunak's started. It might be acceptable for the Prime Minister to look like a clown but not the Chancellor

    What are you even on about? Seriously, I cannot tell.
    I'm really not surprised.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited October 2021

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    The Squid Game is genius

    I did recommend it to you a week ago.
    (Subtitle translations are a bit shit, though.)

    The S Korean media sector seems to have outcompeted us despite the language barrier (see also BTS etc.).

    Some convoluted corporate structures…
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=316199
    The Chinese will be next. They are absolutely brilliant at visual propaganda now. Some of their anti-Covid posters make the best western efforts look lame

    They will move on to TV and movies and then pop music (like Korea), and take those from us, too

    Our only "hope" is that demographic calamity overwhelms them first. And this must, genuinely, soon be a problem for the youthful music and media industries of Korea, Taiwan, HK. Fast shrinking talent pools
    Not sure that is true. Japanese youth culture has maintained its influence despite their ageing demographics.

    Partly it is people refusing to grow up, as we see with Boomers and Gen X here.
    The decline, indeed exhaustion, of western popular music is not a good sign. It is, or was, something we were BRILLIANT at for so long, at the same time as we ruled the world: no coincidence

    It denotes a civilisation approaching stagnancy and therefore irrelevance. Like the decline of visual art in France in the 1930s-40s, or in Italy heading for the end of the 18th century

    Or Islam, in nearly all ways, after the loss of Andalusia
    I don't buy this. Music has been getting better for the last 20 years. Maybe not 'pop' music, but in general. But the woke thing makes it possible that it will all slam in to reverse, hard to think of any decent woke music.

    There was an interview with a russian dissident on Triggernometry last week, he pointed out that China have produced absolutely nothing in terms of decent pop music, hard to disagree with that.

    Can you elaborate on the assertion that music has been getting better for the last 20 years?
    I suppose it is all a bit subjective. As a former musician, I would say that every pre existing genre of pop music has been perfected over the past 10-20 years due to accessibility via the internet; everything is out there, it is all meritocratic; the best stuff makes headway and the crap is discarded; whereas previously it was subject to control by an the record industry.

    I accept that something has been lost as part of this process; ie there are few pop albums of great cultural significance in the way there used to be. I get as nostalgic as everyone else for the old days. But I would say on balance that this is in acceptable price to pay.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Do not tell @Bigjohnowls

    Actually it is ludicrous that he has all the publicity of his speech and change in direction, we have the energy crisis and the fuel crisis and labour go down 2%

    I am being honest when I say I just do not understand it unless Corbyn has destroyed the labour brand like Ratner did his
    SKS is ruining the Lab brand

    That old Mandleson magic is all washed up.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Lady Starmer, shurely?

    Haven’t had one of those in No. 10 in a few years. Not since Lady Douglas-Home in 1964, who apparently had more changes of name than any other once–married woman due to her husband continually changing his title.
    Although in the course of 1 day my mother was called (in order):

    - Darling
    - Mrs [my father’s first name]
    - Her first name
    - Mrs [her surname]
    - Ma’am
    - Your Honour [that was an error]
    - Your Worship
    - Mum
    - The Honorable Mrs [her name]
    IF she'd somehow flown to the Deep South of the US at the end of the day (on a souped-up Concorde?) she could have added "Miss [first name]" to her list (Miss being pronouced "Miz").

    My personal theory, is that American women (and others where similar conventions apply) generally like fact that they've traditionally changed their surnames upon marriage, while still retaining their original names, at least in some situations.

    Sometimes my own Sainted Mother would use her first and middle names with my Daddy Dearest's surname. But sometimes she'd use her own original surname as her middle name, depending on context. Or just how the mood struck her.

    Interesting that rise of feminism and consequent desire and fashion of many women to NOT be required to adopt their husbands' surnames, has actually expanded the options for all women in US. Including the rise of double-barreled surnames, which when I was a boy was the preserve of high-falutin' Brits.

    Which leads me to my second theory: that MALES who were born or promoted into the Anglo-British nobility early on decided to get into the name-change (shape-shifting?) fun. Which led in time to the multitudinous names of the 14th Earl of Home.

    Among other things, must be a great way of dodging creditors!
    The other twist is marrying heiresses on the condition you take on their family name.

    We have two branches of our family who did that and chose to became cadets of the main family
    Words fail me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,104
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    I wonder what a psychiatrist would make of Johnsons obsession with dressing in costume? Thatcher used to do it to a limited extent but nothing like Johnson. I can only think of Grayson Perry who comes close. Prince Charles in his younger days went through a phase but it didn't last. The danger is that where the leader goes others follow, Already Sunak's started. It might be acceptable for the Prime Minister to look like a clown but not the Chancellor

    What are you even on about? Seriously, I cannot tell.
    I'm really not surprised.
    I'm still none the wiser. Something to do with him putting on hardhats or lab coats for photo ops I presume, has he been doing it more lately?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,418
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Lady Starmer, shurely?

    Haven’t had one of those in No. 10 in a few years. Not since Lady Douglas-Home in 1964, who apparently had more changes of name than any other once–married woman due to her husband continually changing his title.
    Although in the course of 1 day my mother was called (in order):

    - Darling
    - Mrs [my father’s first name]
    - Her first name
    - Mrs [her surname]
    - Ma’am
    - Your Honour [that was an error]
    - Your Worship
    - Mum
    - The Honorable Mrs [her name]
    IF she'd somehow flown to the Deep South of the US at the end of the day (on a souped-up Concorde?) she could have added "Miss [first name]" to her list (Miss being pronouced "Miz").

    My personal theory, is that American women (and others where similar conventions apply) generally like fact that they've traditionally changed their surnames upon marriage, while still retaining their original names, at least in some situations.

    Sometimes my own Sainted Mother would use her first and middle names with my Daddy Dearest's surname. But sometimes she'd use her own original surname as her middle name, depending on context. Or just how the mood struck her.

    Interesting that rise of feminism and consequent desire and fashion of many women to NOT be required to adopt their husbands' surnames, has actually expanded the options for all women in US. Including the rise of double-barreled surnames, which when I was a boy was the preserve of high-falutin' Brits.

    Which leads me to my second theory: that MALES who were born or promoted into the Anglo-British nobility early on decided to get into the name-change (shape-shifting?) fun. Which led in time to the multitudinous names of the 14th Earl of Home.

    Among other things, must be a great way of dodging creditors!
    The other twist is marrying heiresses on the condition you take on their family name.

    We have two branches of our family who did that and chose to became cadets of the main family
    As did Philip Lloyd Greame, later Cunliffe-Lister, 1st Earl of Swinton.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Lady Starmer, shurely?

    Haven’t had one of those in No. 10 in a few years. Not since Lady Douglas-Home in 1964, who apparently had more changes of name than any other once–married woman due to her husband continually changing his title.
    Although in the course of 1 day my mother was called (in order):

    - Darling
    - Mrs [my father’s first name]
    - Her first name
    - Mrs [her surname]
    - Ma’am
    - Your Honour [that was an error]
    - Your Worship
    - Mum
    - The Honorable Mrs [her name]
    IF she'd somehow flown to the Deep South of the US at the end of the day (on a souped-up Concorde?) she could have added "Miss [first name]" to her list (Miss being pronouced "Miz").

    My personal theory, is that American women (and others where similar conventions apply) generally like fact that they've traditionally changed their surnames upon marriage, while still retaining their original names, at least in some situations.

    Sometimes my own Sainted Mother would use her first and middle names with my Daddy Dearest's surname. But sometimes she'd use her own original surname as her middle name, depending on context. Or just how the mood struck her.

    Interesting that rise of feminism and consequent desire and fashion of many women to NOT be required to adopt their husbands' surnames, has actually expanded the options for all women in US. Including the rise of double-barreled surnames, which when I was a boy was the preserve of high-falutin' Brits.

    Which leads me to my second theory: that MALES who were born or promoted into the Anglo-British nobility early on decided to get into the name-change (shape-shifting?) fun. Which led in time to the multitudinous names of the 14th Earl of Home.

    Among other things, must be a great way of dodging creditors!
    The other twist is marrying heiresses on the condition you take on their family name.

    We have two branches of our family who did that and chose to became cadets of the main family
    On topic (sort of) is this famous Brit's progression:

    Dame Elizabeth Rosemond Taylor Hilton Wilding Todd Fisher Burton (Burton) Warner Fortensky Taylor

    Or something like that . . or just Liz.

    Personally, feel a bit sad that neither "Rooney" and "Jackson" made the list.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050
    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    edited October 2021
    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,842
    Update from Greece - it's sunny, warm and the food is great. Also the NHS COVID pass works to get into indoor venues so the UK and EU must have quietly come to a mutual recognition agreement. The only place that asked for additional ID was the late night bar and they were matching names on the photo ID to COVID passes for everyone.

    Heading out to a beach town with my wife for tomorrow until Wednesday, booked into a 5* (an actual one, not a Greek 5*). They've got a six course modern Cretan prix fixe which we've managed to book into for Tuesday evening as well. Apparently it's the best place to eat on this part of the island.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
     
    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

  • HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    What is surprising are the dreadful figures on how Brexit is going but labour are not breaking through
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    I wonder what a psychiatrist would make of Johnsons obsession with dressing in costume? Thatcher used to do it to a limited extent but nothing like Johnson. I can only think of Grayson Perry who comes close. Prince Charles in his younger days went through a phase but it didn't last. The danger is that where the leader goes others follow, Already Sunak's started. It might be acceptable for the Prime Minister to look like a clown but not the Chancellor

    What are you even on about? Seriously, I cannot tell.
    I'm really not surprised.
    I'm still none the wiser. Something to do with him putting on hardhats or lab coats for photo ops I presume, has he been doing it more lately?
    One thing that's always surprises me is how many people don't use their eyes. I'm being serious not criticising.

    But there are those who do and those who don't. It has nothing to do with politics.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    edited October 2021
    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    Pointless even bothering to run those numbers
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050
    edited October 2021

    Seattle Times ($) - ‘Bad cop’: Seattle’s Pramila Jayapal emerges as key power player in Biden negotiations

    With trillions of dollars and potentially all of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda on the line, Democratic U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal stared down her own party’s leadership. She didn’t blink.

    All day Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., had said the House would vote that day on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that represents a small portion of Biden’s agenda.

    And all day, Jayapal had said that she, and most of the 96-member Congressional Progressive Caucus that she leads, would not vote for the infrastructure bill unless it was paired with the rest of Biden’s agenda — a vast $3.5 trillion package to raise taxes on the wealthy, make community college free, provide child care and paid family leave, expand Medicare and invest in programs to combat climate change.

    Thursday evening, one of the few moderate Democrats skeptical of the bigger package told CNN he was “1,000 percent” certain the infrastructure bill would pass that night. Moments later, Jayapal said she was certain there would be no vote and if there was, it wouldn’t pass.

    Jayapal was right. Realizing she didn’t have the votes, Pelosi never brought the bill up for a vote Thursday night.

    Jayapal, the third-term congresswoman from West Seattle, has become one of the key negotiators as Democrats, with razor-thin majorities in the House and the Senate, try to pass the ambitious health care, child care, education and climate proposals that Biden ran on and are critical to the success of his presidency.

    Biden’s agenda is split into those two bills and Jayapal, and the newly energized and organized progressive wing of the party, is trying to make sure that the smaller one doesn’t pass without the larger one. . . .

    The Senate has passed the physical infrastructure package, boosting spending for roads, transit and broadband internet. It was negotiated, in part, by two centrist Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, of Arizona.

    But Manchin and Sinema have balked at the larger bill. And, with Democrats having only a one-vote majority in the Senate, and no hopes of getting even a single Republican vote for the larger package, they can’t afford to lose either senator.

    Meanwhile, Jayapal and her progressive caucus have used the infrastructure bill as leverage. Ultimately, they’ll support it, but they are refusing to vote for it until Manchin and Sinema (and the rest of the Senate) sign on to some form of the climate and social programs package. . . .

    “Jayapal is providing a master class these last few weeks in how to wield power,” wrote Brian Fallon, director of the progressive group Demand Justice . . . .

    “It allowed the Biden administration to sort of stand back,” he said. “They let Jayapal be the bad cop here, I think there’s sort of a wink-wink relationship in her making these demands. . . " . . . .

    Manchin and Sinema are doing the right thing.

    Remember Biden only won in 2020 by getting fiscally conservative independents who voted Libertarian party in 2016 rather than back Hillary to support him in 2020 to stop Trump.

    The Libertarian vote fell from 3.28% in 2016 to just 1.18% in 2020 while Trump's vote actually rose from 46.09% in 2016 to 46.86% in 2020.

    Without Biden winning over most of those Libertarian swing voters he would have not have got over 50% of the vote and he would have lost Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia to Trump and the EC.

    To win again in 2024 and prevent the GOP regaining Congress next year therefore the Democrats must reassure those fiscally conservative swing voters that they are not spending too much and will not raise their taxes
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Seattle Times ($) - ‘Bad cop’: Seattle’s Pramila Jayapal emerges as key power player in Biden negotiations

    With trillions of dollars and potentially all of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda on the line, Democratic U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal stared down her own party’s leadership. She didn’t blink.

    All day Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., had said the House would vote that day on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that represents a small portion of Biden’s agenda.

    And all day, Jayapal had said that she, and most of the 96-member Congressional Progressive Caucus that she leads, would not vote for the infrastructure bill unless it was paired with the rest of Biden’s agenda — a vast $3.5 trillion package to raise taxes on the wealthy, make community college free, provide child care and paid family leave, expand Medicare and invest in programs to combat climate change.

    Thursday evening, one of the few moderate Democrats skeptical of the bigger package told CNN he was “1,000 percent” certain the infrastructure bill would pass that night. Moments later, Jayapal said she was certain there would be no vote and if there was, it wouldn’t pass.

    Jayapal was right. Realizing she didn’t have the votes, Pelosi never brought the bill up for a vote Thursday night.

    Jayapal, the third-term congresswoman from West Seattle, has become one of the key negotiators as Democrats, with razor-thin majorities in the House and the Senate, try to pass the ambitious health care, child care, education and climate proposals that Biden ran on and are critical to the success of his presidency.

    Biden’s agenda is split into those two bills and Jayapal, and the newly energized and organized progressive wing of the party, is trying to make sure that the smaller one doesn’t pass without the larger one. . . .

    The Senate has passed the physical infrastructure package, boosting spending for roads, transit and broadband internet. It was negotiated, in part, by two centrist Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, of Arizona.

    But Manchin and Sinema have balked at the larger bill. And, with Democrats having only a one-vote majority in the Senate, and no hopes of getting even a single Republican vote for the larger package, they can’t afford to lose either senator.

    Meanwhile, Jayapal and her progressive caucus have used the infrastructure bill as leverage. Ultimately, they’ll support it, but they are refusing to vote for it until Manchin and Sinema (and the rest of the Senate) sign on to some form of the climate and social programs package. . . .

    “Jayapal is providing a master class these last few weeks in how to wield power,” wrote Brian Fallon, director of the progressive group Demand Justice . . . .

    “It allowed the Biden administration to sort of stand back,” he said. “They let Jayapal be the bad cop here, I think there’s sort of a wink-wink relationship in her making these demands. . . " . . . .

    Surely as soon as an element of social or climate package is attached to the infrastructure bill then

    - either the infrastructure bill is dead (if the GOP opposes)
    - Or the larger deal is dead (if Manchin or Sinena think they have done their bit)
    Might indeed seem to be the case. BUT somehow I'm pretty certain that you are wrong, and that a deal will indeed get done.

    But stay tuned . . . and hold on to yer hat!
    I’m sure a deal would be done… but the logical path is to pass them together with a toned down $3.5tn package
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    edited October 2021
    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
  • isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    Pointless even bothering to run those numbers
    Absolutely
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Naughty OJ


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,418

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,104
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    I wonder what a psychiatrist would make of Johnsons obsession with dressing in costume? Thatcher used to do it to a limited extent but nothing like Johnson. I can only think of Grayson Perry who comes close. Prince Charles in his younger days went through a phase but it didn't last. The danger is that where the leader goes others follow, Already Sunak's started. It might be acceptable for the Prime Minister to look like a clown but not the Chancellor

    What are you even on about? Seriously, I cannot tell.
    I'm really not surprised.
    I'm still none the wiser. Something to do with him putting on hardhats or lab coats for photo ops I presume, has he been doing it more lately?
    One thing that's always surprises me is how many people don't use their eyes. I'm being serious not criticising.

    But there are those who do and those who don't. It has nothing to do with politics.
    I don't watch TV news, most of what I get is read online, so I don't pick up on visual stuff much. I'm just not sure what you think 'dressing in costume' indicates.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,418

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050
    edited October 2021
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    Pointless even bothering to run those numbers
    It isn't, that is the reality, even on Opinium tonight the Tories would lose their majority.

    So yes I am pleased the Conservatives are still ahead but I am also less pleased we are heading for a hung parliament. We as Tories will also need to do far more to reassure the DUP and Unionists as without them we will not return to power unless Boris gets a big bounce from the Manchester conference this week
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Lady Starmer, shurely?

    Haven’t had one of those in No. 10 in a few years. Not since Lady Douglas-Home in 1964, who apparently had more changes of name than any other once–married woman due to her husband continually changing his title.
    Although in the course of 1 day my mother was called (in order):

    - Darling
    - Mrs [my father’s first name]
    - Her first name
    - Mrs [her surname]
    - Ma’am
    - Your Honour [that was an error]
    - Your Worship
    - Mum
    - The Honorable Mrs [her name]
    IF she'd somehow flown to the Deep South of the US at the end of the day (on a souped-up Concorde?) she could have added "Miss [first name]" to her list (Miss being pronouced "Miz").

    My personal theory, is that American women (and others where similar conventions apply) generally like fact that they've traditionally changed their surnames upon marriage, while still retaining their original names, at least in some situations.

    Sometimes my own Sainted Mother would use her first and middle names with my Daddy Dearest's surname. But sometimes she'd use her own original surname as her middle name, depending on context. Or just how the mood struck her.

    Interesting that rise of feminism and consequent desire and fashion of many women to NOT be required to adopt their husbands' surnames, has actually expanded the options for all women in US. Including the rise of double-barreled surnames, which when I was a boy was the preserve of high-falutin' Brits.

    Which leads me to my second theory: that MALES who were born or promoted into the Anglo-British nobility early on decided to get into the name-change (shape-shifting?) fun. Which led in time to the multitudinous names of the 14th Earl of Home.

    Among other things, must be a great way of dodging creditors!
    The other twist is marrying heiresses on the condition you take on their family name.

    We have two branches of our family who did that and chose to became cadets of the main family
    Words fail me.
    Why?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    Burnham clearly deserves to be Labour leader - I'm sure all the current MPs will rally behind him. That's all they're about after all, keeping his throne warm.
    (Other brands of hallucinogens are available)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    Pointless even bothering to run those numbers
    It isn't, that is the reality, even on Opinium tonight the Tories would lose their majority.

    So yes I am please the Conservatives are still ahead but I am also less please we are heading for a hung parliament. We will also need to do more to reassure the DUP and Unionists as without them we will not return to power
    If you don’t understand the futility of running mid term polls through electoral calculus without factoring in recent events, the likelihood of those events being prominent at the GE, the historical trends of polls in the electoral cycle, the effect of the campaign, the debates, the leader ratings, and so on, I can only conclude you have no idea what you’re doing
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    isam said:
    Just had a quite surreal experience

    Knock at the front door and it's a bloke claiming to be "Steve from IPSOS-MORI", saying they want to know how people get out and about in the village. Banged on for a minute or two, then offered me little some black device which he wanted me to take with me every time I left the house, so they could track how far I had gone!

    Surely this is a try on?! I said I wasn't interested. What can it be other than a tracker to tell burglars the house is empty?

    I reckon you should tell him nicely that you want to waste time at your own volition, PB say.

    That reminds me that I have received hundreds of letters over the decades written in pseudo legal lingo that I will be visited at some point by a tv license inspector etc etc. If one ever comes I'll him/her that I've never owned a tele (though fixed quite a few) and am wasting both our times talking about it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Ralph’s already got a seat. They used it as Hogwarts in the movies.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050
    edited October 2021
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    Burnham clearly deserves to be Labour leader - I'm sure all the current MPs will rally behind him. That's all they're about after all, keeping his throne warm.
    (Other brands of hallucinogens are available)
    Burnham is probably Labour's only chance of winning back the Red Wall and thus even winning most seats let alone a majority (the latter also requires Labour to win back most of its seats lost to the SNP in Scotland).

    However as tonight's poll shows Starmer could still become PM even if the Tories still win most seats, if he gets a hung parliament and the SNP and LDs and other minor parties back him.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    Burnham clearly deserves to be Labour leader - I'm sure all the current MPs will rally behind him. That's all they're about after all, keeping his throne warm.
    (Other brands of hallucinogens are available)
    Burnham is probably Labour's only chance of winning back the Red Wall and thus even winning most seats let alone a majority (the latter also requires Labour to win back most of its seats lost to the SNP in Scotland).

    However as tonight's poll shows Starmer could still become PM even if the Tories still win most seats, if he gets a hung parliament and the SNP and LDs and other minor parties back him.
    Sounds like a coalition of chaos to me. :smiley:
  • ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Why? It's because of Corbyn that Labour has so few MPs.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,094
    edited October 2021
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    Pointless even bothering to run those numbers
    It isn't, that is the reality, even on Opinium tonight the Tories would lose their majority.

    So yes I am pleased the Conservatives are still ahead but I am also less pleased we are heading for a hung parliament. We as Tories will also need to do far more to reassure the DUP and Unionists as without them we will not return to power unless Boris gets a big bounce from the Manchester conference this week
    Some of your comments are so bizarre I really find it difficult to believe you understand politics at all

    Suggesting that unless Boris gets a big bounce from the conference this week he will not retain a majority is such nonsense you do not do your credibility any favours

    He could get a huge bounce this week and lose his majority, and not do so and retain his majority

    The election is in 24 and you should type this and refer to it before you post anything

    'A week is a long time in politics'

    Why do you write this rubbish
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    Has anyone ever seen BJO and Owen Jones in the same room
    Owen Jones
    @OwenJones84
    · 36m
    The country is in a catastrophic mess, and we were promised that Keir Starmer attacking the left and delivering the conference speech of every centrist dad's dreams would boost support for Labour.

    Owen Jones
    @OwenJones84
    Genuinely though, how is this supposed to get better for Keir Starmer?

    Even I expected a poll boost for Labour - however temporary - after conference because of increased visibility and the minor fact the country is running out of petrol.

    Instead Labour are going backwards!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Do not tell @Bigjohnowls

    Actually it is ludicrous that he has all the publicity of his speech and change in direction, we have the energy crisis and the fuel crisis and labour go down 2%

    I am being honest when I say I just do not understand it unless Corbyn has destroyed the labour brand like Ratner did his
    SKS is ruining the Lab brand

    LOL!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,104
    Farooq said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Lady Starmer, shurely?

    Haven’t had one of those in No. 10 in a few years. Not since Lady Douglas-Home in 1964, who apparently had more changes of name than any other once–married woman due to her husband continually changing his title.
    Although in the course of 1 day my mother was called (in order):

    - Darling
    - Mrs [my father’s first name]
    - Her first name
    - Mrs [her surname]
    - Ma’am
    - Your Honour [that was an error]
    - Your Worship
    - Mum
    - The Honorable Mrs [her name]
    IF she'd somehow flown to the Deep South of the US at the end of the day (on a souped-up Concorde?) she could have added "Miss [first name]" to her list (Miss being pronouced "Miz").

    My personal theory, is that American women (and others where similar conventions apply) generally like fact that they've traditionally changed their surnames upon marriage, while still retaining their original names, at least in some situations.

    Sometimes my own Sainted Mother would use her first and middle names with my Daddy Dearest's surname. But sometimes she'd use her own original surname as her middle name, depending on context. Or just how the mood struck her.

    Interesting that rise of feminism and consequent desire and fashion of many women to NOT be required to adopt their husbands' surnames, has actually expanded the options for all women in US. Including the rise of double-barreled surnames, which when I was a boy was the preserve of high-falutin' Brits.

    Which leads me to my second theory: that MALES who were born or promoted into the Anglo-British nobility early on decided to get into the name-change (shape-shifting?) fun. Which led in time to the multitudinous names of the 14th Earl of Home.

    Among other things, must be a great way of dodging creditors!
    The other twist is marrying heiresses on the condition you take on their family name.

    We have two branches of our family who did that and chose to became cadets of the main family
    "main family" 😂
    Pecking order is very important when it comes time to pass the port or something.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,418
    edited October 2021

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Because you haven’t the moral courage to hear them, so you refuse to.

    Large sections of Labour’s membership are sadly no longer big on moral courage.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,994
    Keir Starmer: I don’t want people to have another Christmas spoiled by Boris Johnson’s incompetence

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16311673/keir-starmer-op-ed-pm-incompetent?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    Pointless even bothering to run those numbers
    Absolutely
    You and Isam are hilarious! The Uriah Heeps of PB!

    What would Boris do without you
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,200

    IshmaelZ said:

    It is 80 years since the Babi Yar massacre. Extraordinary to think there are still people alive who were contemporaries of some of the victims.

    And the perpetrators..
    (not sure if any of the perps themselves are still around)
    They'd have to be maybe 95 or 96 at the least. But it's not impossible one or two are alive.
    In a parallel, the Germans have now caught the 96 year old Office Secretary from Ravensbruck who went on the run from her residential home this week after failing to attend court.

    former Nazi concentration camp secretary, 96, has been found after going "on the run" on the day her trial was due to start, a court said on Thursday.

    Irmgard Furchner, who was between 18 and 19 years old at the time of the events and lives in a home for the elderly near Hamburg, was to be tried by a special youth court for "complicity in murder in more than 10,000 cases", according to the prosecution.

    She is accused of participating in the murder of inmates in the Stutthof concentration camp in present-day Poland, where she worked as a typist and secretary to the camp commander, Paul Werner Hoppe, between June 1943 and April 1945.

    But the president of the court in Itzehoe said on Thursday morning "the accused is on the run", adding an arrest warrant has been issued.


    https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/30/former-nazi-concentration-camp-secretary-96-goes-on-trial
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,104

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Because you haven’t the moral courage to hear them, so you refuse to.

    Large sections of Labour’s membership are sadly no longer big on moral courage.
    No because its irrelevant and Corbyns 2017 performance will never be matched by SKS anyway but that irrelevant too.

    Labour needs positive reasons to vote for SKS

    You cant think of any other than to claim it would have been worse under yeah but Corbyn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050
    edited October 2021

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    Pointless even bothering to run those numbers
    It isn't, that is the reality, even on Opinium tonight the Tories would lose their majority.

    So yes I am pleased the Conservatives are still ahead but I am also less pleased we are heading for a hung parliament. We as Tories will also need to do far more to reassure the DUP and Unionists as without them we will not return to power unless Boris gets a big bounce from the Manchester conference this week
    Some of your comments are so bizarre I really find it difficult to believe you understand politics at all

    Suggesting that unless Boris gets a big bounce from the conference this week he will not retain a majority is such nonsense you do not do your credibility any favours

    He could get a huge bounce this week and lose his majority, and not do so and retain his majority

    The election is in 24 and you should type this and refer to it before you post anything

    'A week is a long time in politics'

    Why do you write this rubbish
    I am sorry BigG but that is what that poll would see. 46 hardworking, decent Conservative MPs would lose their seats and the Conservative majority won in 2019 would be lost.

    The Conservatives with Opinium tonight are now on 39% ie not only below what they got in 2019 but even below what May got in 2017.

    There is far too much complacency from some Tories on here I am afraid, Starmer may be a million miles from a Labour majority, he is certainly not a million miles from replacing Boris as PM
  • Roger said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    Pointless even bothering to run those numbers
    Absolutely
    You and Isam are hilarious! The Uriah Heeps of PB!

    What would Boris do without you
    I am not a conservative member and support Rishi

    However, you seem to enjoy throwing insults as Brexit hurts you to the core
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,994
    Three fifths (59%) of the public think Brexit is going badly, with over a third (37%) of Leave voters also thinking Brexit is going badly so far.

    A quarter (26%) of Leave voters think Brexit has gone worse than expected.
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1444383009323487238/photo/1
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Attention: Due to a distinct lack of bowing, deference, and general naming of babies after me, all future articles of mine will be advertised following the below model.


  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    You don’t understand. Partly because I think you don’t want to understand. That would mean admitting that Corbyn was a self inflicted, self indulgent catastrophe whose leadership was responsible for making an unpopular party into a hated, despised and mocked one.*

    That’s the problem with Labour. Not Starmer. Labour.

    Until it’s detoxified, it will keep going backwards.

    Getting rid of Corbyn and his madder acolytes was an absolute prerquisite for that.

    It’s not remotely sufficient but without it Labour was going the way of the Liberals under Asquith.

    Can Starmer rescue it? I don’t know. He is at least doing all the right things. He’s upsetting all the right people.

    *Don’t give me that bullshit about the grass roots. The adulation of a few hundred thousand pompous and not very bright people like Pidcock, Burgon, Sultana and Lavery doesn’t make up for millions who think you’re vile twats.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    You don’t understand. Partly because I think you don’t want to understand. That would mean admitting that Corbyn was a self inflicted, self indulgent catastrophe whose leadership was responsible for making an unpopular party into a hated, despised and mocked one.*

    That’s the problem with Labour. Not Starmer. Labour.

    Until it’s detoxified, it will keep going backwards.

    Getting rid of Corbyn and his madder acolytes was an absolute prerquisite for that.

    It’s not remotely sufficient but without it Labour was going the way of the Liberals under Asquith.

    Can Starmer rescue it? I don’t know. He is at least doing all the right things. He’s upsetting all the right people.

    *Don’t give me that bullshit about the grass roots. The adulation of a few hundred thousand pompous and not very bright people like Pidcock, Burgon, Sultana and Lavery doesn’t make up for millions who think you’re vile twats.
    Yawn so you cant give a single reason to vote SKS

    And you wish SKS well

    The voters are not persuaded

    In fact the more they see or hear from him the worse his polling gets

    New New Labour is a busted flush
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,418
    edited October 2021

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Because you haven’t the moral courage to hear them, so you refuse to.

    Large sections of Labour’s membership are sadly no longer big on moral courage.
    No because its irrelevant and Corbyns 2017 performance will never be matched by SKS anyway but that irrelevant too.

    Labour needs positive reasons to vote for SKS

    You cant think of any other than to claim it would have been worse under yeah but Corbyn
    Well, yes, and it was. Or have you forgotten that? How come you’re obsessed with 2017 - still worse than Kinnock’s result in 1992 or Callaghan’s in 1979 - but have forgotten 2019, the Labour party’s worst election result since 1935?

    Because you don’t want to remember.

    And that is the problem Starmer faces. As long as there is a significant chunk of Labour that still thinks Corbyn’s leadership was anything other than the total train crash on policy, personnel and tone it transparently was, Labour is stuck.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    Pointless even bothering to run those numbers
    It isn't, that is the reality, even on Opinium tonight the Tories would lose their majority.

    So yes I am pleased the Conservatives are still ahead but I am also less pleased we are heading for a hung parliament. We as Tories will also need to do far more to reassure the DUP and Unionists as without them we will not return to power unless Boris gets a big bounce from the Manchester conference this week
    Some of your comments are so bizarre I really find it difficult to believe you understand politics at all

    Suggesting that unless Boris gets a big bounce from the conference this week he will not retain a majority is such nonsense you do not do your credibility any favours

    He could get a huge bounce this week and lose his majority, and not do so and retain his majority

    The election is in 24 and you should type this and refer to it before you post anything

    'A week is a long time in politics'

    Why do you write this rubbish
    I am sorry BigG but that is what that poll would see, 46 hardworking, decent Conservative MPs would lose their seats and the Conservative majority won in 2019 would be lost.

    The Conservatives with Opinium tonight are now on 39% ie not only below what they got in 2019 but even below what May got in 2017.

    There is far too much complacency from some Tories on here I am afraid, Starmer may be a million miles from a Labour majority, he is certainly not a million miles from replacing Boris as PM
    You know what I am not a conservative member and if Boris loses in 2024 so be it and it will be the vote of the people
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Farooq said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Lady Starmer, shurely?

    Haven’t had one of those in No. 10 in a few years. Not since Lady Douglas-Home in 1964, who apparently had more changes of name than any other once–married woman due to her husband continually changing his title.
    Although in the course of 1 day my mother was called (in order):

    - Darling
    - Mrs [my father’s first name]
    - Her first name
    - Mrs [her surname]
    - Ma’am
    - Your Honour [that was an error]
    - Your Worship
    - Mum
    - The Honorable Mrs [her name]
    IF she'd somehow flown to the Deep South of the US at the end of the day (on a souped-up Concorde?) she could have added "Miss [first name]" to her list (Miss being pronouced "Miz").

    My personal theory, is that American women (and others where similar conventions apply) generally like fact that they've traditionally changed their surnames upon marriage, while still retaining their original names, at least in some situations.

    Sometimes my own Sainted Mother would use her first and middle names with my Daddy Dearest's surname. But sometimes she'd use her own original surname as her middle name, depending on context. Or just how the mood struck her.

    Interesting that rise of feminism and consequent desire and fashion of many women to NOT be required to adopt their husbands' surnames, has actually expanded the options for all women in US. Including the rise of double-barreled surnames, which when I was a boy was the preserve of high-falutin' Brits.

    Which leads me to my second theory: that MALES who were born or promoted into the Anglo-British nobility early on decided to get into the name-change (shape-shifting?) fun. Which led in time to the multitudinous names of the 14th Earl of Home.

    Among other things, must be a great way of dodging creditors!
    The other twist is marrying heiresses on the condition you take on their family name.

    We have two branches of our family who did that and chose to became cadets of the main family
    "main family" 😂
    Sure. I’m from a junior branch of the senior line, but we aren’t a cadet family as we don’t have our own seat.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Quincel said:

    Attention: Due to a distinct lack of bowing, deference, and general naming of babies after me, all future articles of mine will be advertised following the below model.


    We'd have more respect for you if you were a member of the main family.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,418

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    You don’t understand. Partly because I think you don’t want to understand. That would mean admitting that Corbyn was a self inflicted, self indulgent catastrophe whose leadership was responsible for making an unpopular party into a hated, despised and mocked one.*

    That’s the problem with Labour. Not Starmer. Labour.

    Until it’s detoxified, it will keep going backwards.

    Getting rid of Corbyn and his madder acolytes was an absolute prerquisite for that.

    It’s not remotely sufficient but without it Labour was going the way of the Liberals under Asquith.

    Can Starmer rescue it? I don’t know. He is at least doing all the right things. He’s upsetting all the right people.

    *Don’t give me that bullshit about the grass roots. The adulation of a few hundred thousand pompous and not very bright people like Pidcock, Burgon, Sultana and Lavery doesn’t make up for millions who think you’re vile twats.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    You don’t understand. Partly because I think you don’t want to understand. That would mean admitting that Corbyn was a self inflicted, self indulgent catastrophe whose leadership was responsible for making an unpopular party into a hated, despised and mocked one.*

    That’s the problem with Labour. Not Starmer. Labour.

    Until it’s detoxified, it will keep going backwards.

    Getting rid of Corbyn and his madder acolytes was an absolute prerquisite for that.

    It’s not remotely sufficient but without it Labour was going the way of the Liberals under Asquith.

    Can Starmer rescue it? I don’t know. He is at least doing all the right things. He’s upsetting all the right people.

    *Don’t give me that bullshit about the grass roots. The adulation of a few hundred thousand pompous and not very bright people like Pidcock, Burgon, Sultana and Lavery doesn’t make up for millions who think you’re vile twats.
    Yawn so you cant give a single reason to vote SKS

    And you wish SKS well

    The voters are not persuaded

    In fact the more they see or hear from him the worse his polling gets

    New New Labour is a busted flush
    And so are you. You represent the past. A vile and dangerous past we are moving on from. A relic of a discredited nineteenth century ideology dreamed up by a man who admitted his ideas didn’t ever work in the real world. A party I physically felt unable to vote for despite having voted for a party led by Ed Miliband.

    The problem is you’re taking the Opposition with you out of spite and we’re left with this awful mob as a result.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Because you haven’t the moral courage to hear them, so you refuse to.

    Large sections of Labour’s membership are sadly no longer big on moral courage.
    No because its irrelevant and Corbyns 2017 performance will never be matched by SKS anyway but that irrelevant too.

    Labour needs positive reasons to vote for SKS

    You cant think of any other than to claim it would have been worse under yeah but Corbyn
    Maybe he'll surprise you in the same way Boris has.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,093
    Farooq said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Lady Starmer, shurely?

    Haven’t had one of those in No. 10 in a few years. Not since Lady Douglas-Home in 1964, who apparently had more changes of name than any other once–married woman due to her husband continually changing his title.
    Although in the course of 1 day my mother was called (in order):

    - Darling
    - Mrs [my father’s first name]
    - Her first name
    - Mrs [her surname]
    - Ma’am
    - Your Honour [that was an error]
    - Your Worship
    - Mum
    - The Honorable Mrs [her name]
    IF she'd somehow flown to the Deep South of the US at the end of the day (on a souped-up Concorde?) she could have added "Miss [first name]" to her list (Miss being pronouced "Miz").

    My personal theory, is that American women (and others where similar conventions apply) generally like fact that they've traditionally changed their surnames upon marriage, while still retaining their original names, at least in some situations.

    Sometimes my own Sainted Mother would use her first and middle names with my Daddy Dearest's surname. But sometimes she'd use her own original surname as her middle name, depending on context. Or just how the mood struck her.

    Interesting that rise of feminism and consequent desire and fashion of many women to NOT be required to adopt their husbands' surnames, has actually expanded the options for all women in US. Including the rise of double-barreled surnames, which when I was a boy was the preserve of high-falutin' Brits.

    Which leads me to my second theory: that MALES who were born or promoted into the Anglo-British nobility early on decided to get into the name-change (shape-shifting?) fun. Which led in time to the multitudinous names of the 14th Earl of Home.

    Among other things, must be a great way of dodging creditors!
    The other twist is marrying heiresses on the condition you take on their family name.

    We have two branches of our family who did that and chose to became cadets of the main family
    "main family" 😂
    Harsh.
    Everyone needs a hobby.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,418
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Because you haven’t the moral courage to hear them, so you refuse to.

    Large sections of Labour’s membership are sadly no longer big on moral courage.
    No because its irrelevant and Corbyns 2017 performance will never be matched by SKS anyway but that irrelevant too.

    Labour needs positive reasons to vote for SKS

    You cant think of any other than to claim it would have been worse under yeah but Corbyn
    Maybe he'll surprise you in the same way Boris has.

    What, by getting BJO’s support? That seems a little unlikely.

    Good night.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Because you haven’t the moral courage to hear them, so you refuse to.

    Large sections of Labour’s membership are sadly no longer big on moral courage.
    No because its irrelevant and Corbyns 2017 performance will never be matched by SKS anyway but that irrelevant too.

    Labour needs positive reasons to vote for SKS

    You cant think of any other than to claim it would have been worse under yeah but Corbyn
    It's because of Corbyn that Labour currently has so few MPs.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
    Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.





  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Because you haven’t the moral courage to hear them, so you refuse to.

    Large sections of Labour’s membership are sadly no longer big on moral courage.
    No because its irrelevant and Corbyns 2017 performance will never be matched by SKS anyway but that irrelevant too.

    Labour needs positive reasons to vote for SKS

    You cant think of any other than to claim it would have been worse under yeah but Corbyn
    It's because of Corbyn that Labour currently has so few MPs.
    Brexit Election
  • Quincel said:

    Attention: Due to a distinct lack of bowing, deference, and general naming of babies after me, all future articles of mine will be advertised following the below model.


    Hilariously Neil went off on a twitter rant when people accused him of being a self aggrandising, vain old fool; apparently these were the Mail’s words that he just happen to reproduce (without quotation marks).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Because you haven’t the moral courage to hear them, so you refuse to.

    Large sections of Labour’s membership are sadly no longer big on moral courage.
    No because its irrelevant and Corbyns 2017 performance will never be matched by SKS anyway but that irrelevant too.

    Labour needs positive reasons to vote for SKS

    You cant think of any other than to claim it would have been worse under yeah but Corbyn
    Maybe he'll surprise you in the same way Boris has.

    What, by getting BJO’s support? That seems a little unlikely.

    Good night.
    BJO's become a fan of Boris. Seriously
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    You don’t understand. Partly because I think you don’t want to understand. That would mean admitting that Corbyn was a self inflicted, self indulgent catastrophe whose leadership was responsible for making an unpopular party into a hated, despised and mocked one.*

    That’s the problem with Labour. Not Starmer. Labour.

    Until it’s detoxified, it will keep going backwards.

    Getting rid of Corbyn and his madder acolytes was an absolute prerquisite for that.

    It’s not remotely sufficient but without it Labour was going the way of the Liberals under Asquith.

    Can Starmer rescue it? I don’t know. He is at least doing all the right things. He’s upsetting all the right people.

    *Don’t give me that bullshit about the grass roots. The adulation of a few hundred thousand pompous and not very bright people like Pidcock, Burgon, Sultana and Lavery doesn’t make up for millions who think you’re vile twats.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    You don’t understand. Partly because I think you don’t want to understand. That would mean admitting that Corbyn was a self inflicted, self indulgent catastrophe whose leadership was responsible for making an unpopular party into a hated, despised and mocked one.*

    That’s the problem with Labour. Not Starmer. Labour.

    Until it’s detoxified, it will keep going backwards.

    Getting rid of Corbyn and his madder acolytes was an absolute prerquisite for that.

    It’s not remotely sufficient but without it Labour was going the way of the Liberals under Asquith.

    Can Starmer rescue it? I don’t know. He is at least doing all the right things. He’s upsetting all the right people.

    *Don’t give me that bullshit about the grass roots. The adulation of a few hundred thousand pompous and not very bright people like Pidcock, Burgon, Sultana and Lavery doesn’t make up for millions who think you’re vile twats.
    Yawn so you cant give a single reason to vote SKS

    And you wish SKS well

    The voters are not persuaded

    In fact the more they see or hear from him the worse his polling gets

    New New Labour is a busted flush
    And so are you. You represent the past. A vile and dangerous past we are moving on from. A relic of a discredited nineteenth century ideology dreamed up by a man who admitted his ideas didn’t ever work in the real world. A party I physically felt unable to vote for despite having voted for a party led by Ed Miliband.

    The problem is you’re taking the Opposition with you out of spite and we’re left with this awful mob as a result.
    Voters like you, out of spite left us with this mob

    Dont blame me I voted Labour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
    Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.





    Corbyn was 12% behind in 2019, Starmer is 4% behind tonight
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
    Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.
    It isn't just him, though. When people see a complete c--t being succeeded by a useless wanker, they tend to discern a pattern. In other words it isn't just him, it's also you.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,732
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
    The party is a "financial basket case" because of the legal bills needed to clear up the mess the Corbyn Cult left.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_xP said:

    Keir Starmer: I don’t want people to have another Christmas spoiled by Boris Johnson’s incompetence

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16311673/keir-starmer-op-ed-pm-incompetent?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    Says the man who would still have the country locked up
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    You don’t understand. Partly because I think you don’t want to understand. That would mean admitting that Corbyn was a self inflicted, self indulgent catastrophe whose leadership was responsible for making an unpopular party into a hated, despised and mocked one.*

    That’s the problem with Labour. Not Starmer. Labour.

    Until it’s detoxified, it will keep going backwards.

    Getting rid of Corbyn and his madder acolytes was an absolute prerquisite for that.

    It’s not remotely sufficient but without it Labour was going the way of the Liberals under Asquith.

    Can Starmer rescue it? I don’t know. He is at least doing all the right things. He’s upsetting all the right people.

    *Don’t give me that bullshit about the grass roots. The adulation of a few hundred thousand pompous and not very bright people like Pidcock, Burgon, Sultana and Lavery doesn’t make up for millions who think you’re vile twats.
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    You don’t understand. Partly because I think you don’t want to understand. That would mean admitting that Corbyn was a self inflicted, self indulgent catastrophe whose leadership was responsible for making an unpopular party into a hated, despised and mocked one.*

    That’s the problem with Labour. Not Starmer. Labour.

    Until it’s detoxified, it will keep going backwards.

    Getting rid of Corbyn and his madder acolytes was an absolute prerquisite for that.

    It’s not remotely sufficient but without it Labour was going the way of the Liberals under Asquith.

    Can Starmer rescue it? I don’t know. He is at least doing all the right things. He’s upsetting all the right people.

    *Don’t give me that bullshit about the grass roots. The adulation of a few hundred thousand pompous and not very bright people like Pidcock, Burgon, Sultana and Lavery doesn’t make up for millions who think you’re vile twats.
    Yawn so you cant give a single reason to vote SKS

    And you wish SKS well

    The voters are not persuaded

    In fact the more they see or hear from him the worse his polling gets

    New New Labour is a busted flush
    And so are you. You represent the past. A vile and dangerous past we are moving on from. A relic of a discredited nineteenth century ideology dreamed up by a man who admitted his ideas didn’t ever work in the real world. A party I physically felt unable to vote for despite having voted for a party led by Ed Miliband.

    The problem is you’re taking the Opposition with you out of spite and we’re left with this awful mob as a result.
    Voters like you, out of spite left us with this mob

    Dont blame me I voted Labour
    Spite?

    Voting against antisemitism is spiteful?

    Golly.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
    No but I could under Andy Burnham

    "yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Because you haven’t the moral courage to hear them, so you refuse to.

    Large sections of Labour’s membership are sadly no longer big on moral courage.
    No because its irrelevant and Corbyns 2017 performance will never be matched by SKS anyway but that irrelevant too.

    Labour needs positive reasons to vote for SKS

    You cant think of any other than to claim it would have been worse under yeah but Corbyn
    It's because of Corbyn that Labour currently has so few MPs.
    Brexit Election
    2017 was the Brexit election.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
    Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.





    Corbyn was 12% behind in 2019, Starmer is 4% behind tonight
    22 months after the 2017 GE, ie where we are now, Corbyn was 9% ahead
  • Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
    No but I could under Andy Burnham

    "yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
    2019 defeat = yeah because of Corbyn.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577
    edited October 2021
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.

    With new boundaries to come to make things worse.

    The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    edited October 2021
    Two takeaways from tonight's Opinium. British people like queueing for petrol and agree with Laura Pidcock.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Quincel said:

    Attention: Due to a distinct lack of bowing, deference, and general naming of babies after me, all future articles of mine will be advertised following the below model.


    Hilariously Neil went off on a twitter rant when people accused him of being a self aggrandising, vain old fool; apparently these were the Mail’s words that he just happen to reproduce (without quotation marks).
    I believe that, it certainly looks like a copy/paste job. But still, imho, pretty cringe. Tbh, pretty cringe for The Mail to have written them in the first place for anyone. There's PR, and then there's too far.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Sir Keir finally getting to meet and greet, shake hands in person, as well as lots of widespread tv coverage

    Lab -2


    Opinium
    @OpiniumResearch

    8m
    The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.

    The latest numbers for the
    @OpiniumResearch
    /
    @ObserverUK
    poll.

    Con 39% (-1)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (NC)

    Electoral calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers, Conservatives 319, Labour 246.
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again

    Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.

    With new boundaries to come to make things worse.

    The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
    The new boundaries will not be as pro Tory as they would be under say Cameron as most of the net gains will be in London and the South East where Boris is relatively less popular than the RedWall
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
    No but I could under Andy Burnham

    "yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
    2019 defeat = yeah because of Corbyn.
    2024 is the latest prize And 2019 was mainly down to desire for Brexit and Boris

    SKS policy on BREXIT 2nd Referendum was a disaster on the doorstep
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
    No but I could under Andy Burnham

    "yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
    2019 defeat = yeah because of Corbyn.
    2024 is the latest prize And 2019 was mainly down to desire for Brexit and Boris

    SKS policy on BREXIT 2nd Referendum was a disaster on the doorstep
    Confirmed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    The Squid Game is genius

    I did recommend it to you a week ago.
    (Subtitle translations are a bit shit, though.)

    The S Korean media sector seems to have outcompeted us despite the language barrier (see also BTS etc.).

    Some convoluted corporate structures…
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=316199
    The Chinese will be next. They are absolutely brilliant at visual propaganda now. Some of their anti-Covid posters make the best western efforts look lame

    They will move on to TV and movies and then pop music (like Korea), and take those from us, too

    Our only "hope" is that demographic calamity overwhelms them first. And this must, genuinely, soon be a problem for the youthful music and media industries of Korea, Taiwan, HK. Fast shrinking talent pools
    Not sure that is true. Japanese youth culture has maintained its influence despite their ageing demographics.

    Partly it is people refusing to grow up, as we see with Boomers and Gen X here.
    The decline, indeed exhaustion, of western popular music is not a good sign. It is, or was, something we were BRILLIANT at for so long, at the same time as we ruled the world: no coincidence

    It denotes a civilisation approaching stagnancy and therefore irrelevance. Like the decline of visual art in France in the 1930s-40s, or in Italy heading for the end of the 18th century

    Or Islam, in nearly all ways, after the loss of Andalusia
    I don't buy this. Music has been getting better for the last 20 years. Maybe not 'pop' music, but in general. But the woke thing makes it possible that it will all slam in to reverse, hard to think of any decent woke music.

    There was an interview with a russian dissident on Triggernometry last week, he pointed out that China have produced absolutely nothing in terms of decent pop music, hard to disagree with that.

    Can you elaborate on the assertion that music has been getting better for the last 20 years?
    ... while he's at it he could elaborate on the further assertion that the 'woke thing' makes it possible that it will all slam in to reverse.

    Or are these evidence-free assertions?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
    Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.





    Corbyn was 12% behind in 2019, Starmer is 4% behind tonight
    22 months after the 2017 GE, ie where we are now, Corbyn was 9% ahead
    22 months after the 2017 GE was April 2019 when Labour were polling 33% under Corbyn with Opinium ie below the 35% they are polling with Starmer.

    The only reason they were ahead was Farage's BXP was on 17% to 26% for May's Tories, as soon as Boris took over the BXP vote shifted back to the Tories again

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667

    Two takeaways from tonight's Opinium. British people like queueing for petrol and agree with Laura Pidcock.

    Come on Pete cheer up. A maximum of 3 more Leaders speeches from SKS to endure
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    In the matter of SKS.

    Even the inept William Hague got a poll lead in the middle of a petrol crisis. SKS can't even manage that.

    @bigjohnowls is right. SKS is going to lose, and lose badly.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2021
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
    Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.





    Corbyn was 12% behind in 2019, Starmer is 4% behind tonight
    22 months after the 2017 GE, ie where we are now, Corbyn was 9% ahead
    22 months after the 2017 GE was April 2019 when Labour were polling 33% under Corbyn with Opinium ie below the 35% they are polling with Starmer.

    The only reason they were ahead was Farage's BXP was on 17% to 26% for May's Tories, as soon as Boris took over the BXP vote shifted back to the Tories again

    They led 36-29 at this stage with Opinium


  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667


    In the matter of SKS.

    Even the inept William Hague got a poll lead in the middle of a petrol crisis. SKS can't even manage that.

    @bigjohnowls is right. SKS is going to lose, and lose badly.

    Worst result since 1926 on the cards

  • In the matter of SKS.

    Even the inept William Hague got a poll lead in the middle of a petrol crisis. SKS can't even manage that.

    @bigjohnowls is right. SKS is going to lose, and lose badly.

    Worst result since 1926 on the cards
    Worst result since 2019?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050
    edited October 2021
    isam said:


    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
    Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.





    Corbyn was 12% behind in 2019, Starmer is 4% behind tonight
    22 months after the 2017 GE, ie where we are now, Corbyn was 9% ahead
    22 months after the 2017 GE was April 2019 when Labour were polling 33% under Corbyn with Opinium ie below the 35% they are polling with Starmer.

    The only reason they were ahead was Farage's BXP was on 17% to 26% for May's Tories, as soon as Boris took over the BXP vote shifted back to the Tories again

    They led 36-29 at this stage with Opinium



    The last Opinium of April 2019 (21st-23rd) had Labour on 33% ie no different basically to the 32.1% Corbyn got in December 2019, May's Tories were on 26% and the BXP were on 17%.

    Even the earlier Opinium had the Tories and BXP on 40% combined the ONLY reason Corbyn had a lead then was Farage was splitting the Tory vote under May, Boris completely reversed that
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    Due to financial problems in the Party, Keir Starmer is asking people to "chip in" and donate to Labour - will you be donating?

    I have had to resort to blocking Labour from spamming me.

    Not sure why they think that their is the remotest possibility Ex Members are going to "chip in"
  • isam said:


    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

     

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    Not even a dead cat that.

    A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
    Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
    As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
    Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
    Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.





    Corbyn was 12% behind in 2019, Starmer is 4% behind tonight
    22 months after the 2017 GE, ie where we are now, Corbyn was 9% ahead
    22 months after the 2017 GE was April 2019 when Labour were polling 33% under Corbyn with Opinium ie below the 35% they are polling with Starmer.

    The only reason they were ahead was Farage's BXP was on 17% to 26% for May's Tories, as soon as Boris took over the BXP vote shifted back to the Tories again

    They led 36-29 at this stage with Opinium


    He will defend the indefensible to the end

    He does not know anything else
  • Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?

    CHB/MexicanPete/Roger/Jonathan/Southern Observer/Kinabalu


    Your man is a useless nonentity

    Wake up

    And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant

    Get KotN a seat
    Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.

    To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’

    I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.

    He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
    "Made a good start" my arse.

    He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster

    He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held

    His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago

    He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70

    He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy

    He has made over one third of staff redundant

    He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything

    He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign

    He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions

    He is going down like a dockside whore

    but yeah "good start"!!
    Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
    No but I could under Andy Burnham

    "yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
    2019 defeat = yeah because of Corbyn.
    2024 is the latest prize And 2019 was mainly down to desire for Brexit and Boris

    SKS policy on BREXIT 2nd Referendum was a disaster on the doorstep
    Corbyn was leader in 2019, so ultimately it was Corbyn's policy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,050


    In the matter of SKS.

    Even the inept William Hague got a poll lead in the middle of a petrol crisis. SKS can't even manage that.

    @bigjohnowls is right. SKS is going to lose, and lose badly.

    Worst result since 1926 on the cards
    On tonight's Opinium Labour would be on 246 seats, ie 44 more Labour MPs under Starmer than Corbyn got in 2019
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667


    In the matter of SKS.

    Even the inept William Hague got a poll lead in the middle of a petrol crisis. SKS can't even manage that.

    @bigjohnowls is right. SKS is going to lose, and lose badly.

    Worst result since 1926 on the cards
    Worst result since 2019?
    No 1926
This discussion has been closed.