It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
To lose their majority he has to be blamed specifically by leave Tory voters though. Probably 15-25% of them. We are a long way from that, although white van man and Ford Mondeo man in the m25 marginals might be starting to waver.
Midpoint of voting right now would probably be "2016 was a mistake, but we have to go through with this and right now Brexit is being badly managed."
So will voters go for a party who believe in Brexit but aren't doing a good job with it? Or a party that, even now, really doesn't believe?
I can see arguments against each side.
With FPTP I am not convinced the midpoint view is that relevant. One group that really matter are Tory 2019 switchers who presumably were quite committed to Brexit. They still are and if they do turn against Brexit then it will be well after the median view changes.
True, though the question (would they prefer an less competent believer or a more competent unbeliever?) still applies.
I'm no economist, but to me the complacency these days is rather reminiscent of Brown's "end to boom and bust" mantra. I wouldn't be at all surprised if things go pear-shaped.
The combination of ultra-low interest rates (and therefore very low savings rates), low but rising inflation, absurd house prices in parts of the country, rapidly increasing wages in some sectors, rapidly increasing prices for some essentials, and huge, huge borrowing by the government just feels to me like an explosive cocktail that is not sustainable.
It is partly complacency, but also that no-one knows a good way out of this, even if they think its a nightmare place to be.
I'm no economist, but to me the complacency these days is rather reminiscent of Brown's "end to boom and bust" mantra. I wouldn't be at all surprised if things go pear-shaped.
The combination of ultra-low interest rates (and therefore very low savings rates), low but rising inflation, absurd house prices in parts of the country, rapidly increasing wages in some sectors, rapidly increasing prices for some essentials, and huge, huge borrowing by the government just feels to me like an explosive cocktail that is not sustainable.
One of my savings accounts has an interest rate of 0.01%. I wonder why I bother.
You can definitely do something better with that money. Even an ISA would give you better returns.
Seattle Times ($) - ‘Bad cop’: Seattle’s Pramila Jayapal emerges as key power player in Biden negotiations
With trillions of dollars and potentially all of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda on the line, Democratic U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal stared down her own party’s leadership. She didn’t blink.
All day Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., had said the House would vote that day on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that represents a small portion of Biden’s agenda.
And all day, Jayapal had said that she, and most of the 96-member Congressional Progressive Caucus that she leads, would not vote for the infrastructure bill unless it was paired with the rest of Biden’s agenda — a vast $3.5 trillion package to raise taxes on the wealthy, make community college free, provide child care and paid family leave, expand Medicare and invest in programs to combat climate change.
Thursday evening, one of the few moderate Democrats skeptical of the bigger package told CNN he was “1,000 percent” certain the infrastructure bill would pass that night. Moments later, Jayapal said she was certain there would be no vote and if there was, it wouldn’t pass.
Jayapal was right. Realizing she didn’t have the votes, Pelosi never brought the bill up for a vote Thursday night.
Jayapal, the third-term congresswoman from West Seattle, has become one of the key negotiators as Democrats, with razor-thin majorities in the House and the Senate, try to pass the ambitious health care, child care, education and climate proposals that Biden ran on and are critical to the success of his presidency.
Biden’s agenda is split into those two bills and Jayapal, and the newly energized and organized progressive wing of the party, is trying to make sure that the smaller one doesn’t pass without the larger one. . . .
The Senate has passed the physical infrastructure package, boosting spending for roads, transit and broadband internet. It was negotiated, in part, by two centrist Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, of Arizona.
But Manchin and Sinema have balked at the larger bill. And, with Democrats having only a one-vote majority in the Senate, and no hopes of getting even a single Republican vote for the larger package, they can’t afford to lose either senator.
Meanwhile, Jayapal and her progressive caucus have used the infrastructure bill as leverage. Ultimately, they’ll support it, but they are refusing to vote for it until Manchin and Sinema (and the rest of the Senate) sign on to some form of the climate and social programs package. . . .
“Jayapal is providing a master class these last few weeks in how to wield power,” wrote Brian Fallon, director of the progressive group Demand Justice . . . .
“It allowed the Biden administration to sort of stand back,” he said. “They let Jayapal be the bad cop here, I think there’s sort of a wink-wink relationship in her making these demands. . . " . . . .
Sounds like classic party within a party action. Whatever happened to the Tea Party? I guess they are now just the whole party?
France 24 has been framing this as moderates vs progressives Which is interesting.
Sure, but those terms don't really mean anything, people just self identify as them to mean 'sensible/realist' and 'good'.
Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.
Only to FBPE supporters
It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas
It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.
It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.
Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
I certainly won’t be.
Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.
How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
Classroom discipline enforced at bayonet point?
(Don't suggest it to the Daily Mail!)
I had a primary school teacher who was a Pole who had been a commando during the war. The word around the school was that he knew 14 different ways to kill without leaving a mark on the body: he had no discipline problems at all.
My father-in-law was a senior drill instructor in a South American army. Went into teaching... Never raised his voice - could get a hall full of children to shut up, sit down and pay attention with a slight clearing of the throat.
Doesn't even take that kind of background. We certainly had a few shouters among teachers, but there were also ones who we had no idea of their background who never needed to raise their voice and yet no one ever misbehaved in their class.
It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
To lose their majority he has to be blamed specifically by leave Tory voters though. Probably 15-25% of them. We are a long way from that, although white van man and Ford Mondeo man in the m25 marginals might be starting to waver.
Midpoint of voting right now would probably be "2016 was a mistake, but we have to go through with this and right now Brexit is being badly managed."
So will voters go for a party who believe in Brexit but aren't doing a good job with it? Or a party that, even now, really doesn't believe?
I can see arguments against each side.
With FPTP I am not convinced the midpoint view is that relevant. One group that really matter are Tory 2019 switchers who presumably were quite committed to Brexit. They still are and if they do turn against Brexit then it will be well after the median view changes.
What would a mid point politics be? Until the EU/Europe matter is laid to rest it's unclear. ATM I expect the next election, Brexitwise, to be:
Tories: Stick with the only party that believes in it LD: Rejoin Lab: we don't accept the premise of Brexit but don't want to rejoin either. We will manage what we don't believe in better than the Tories who sort of do. Green: Rejoin SNP: Scotland rejoin.
One of these policies sticks out like an unconvincing sore thumb. Which can it be?
I'm no economist, but to me the complacency these days is rather reminiscent of Brown's "end to boom and bust" mantra. I wouldn't be at all surprised if things go pear-shaped.
The combination of ultra-low interest rates (and therefore very low savings rates), low but rising inflation, absurd house prices in parts of the country, rapidly increasing wages in some sectors, rapidly increasing prices for some essentials, and huge, huge borrowing by the government just feels to me like an explosive cocktail that is not sustainable.
It is partly complacency, but also that no-one knows a good way out of this, even if they think its a nightmare place to be.
From the point of view of politics - ie the need to win the next election, keep this ticking bomb going as long as possible (BTW there is no coherent way out) is the only option.
Notice that the other parties are proposing no sort of coherent policy in this areas, just tinkering at the edges.
Just heard this and it made me smile. The Govt has brought forward the deadline for getting petrol and diesel cars off the road from 2035 to Monday.
It's also accelerated levelling-up by making sure that there is a plentiful supply of petrol in the North and Midlands, while those in London and the South East suffer from empty forecourts. Clever.
That bloody stuck ship in the Suez, has a lot to answer for!
They seem to be container ships from China to Long Beach, so not sure that Suez would be the route.
Part of it seems to be the same phenomenon as we see, labour shortages in key positions. I think there has been a worldwide shift caused by the pandemic over what we might call work-life balance. Indeed I have had many thoughts on that theme, and am looking to cut my hours by about 50% over the next few years. I have rather enjoyed being home with dog and garden.
That bloody stuck ship in the Suez, has a lot to answer for!
They seem to be container ships from China to Long Beach, so not sure that Suez would be the route.
Part of it seems to be the same phenomenon as we see, labour shortages in key positions. I think there has been a worldwide shift caused by the pandemic over what we might call work-life balance. Indeed I have had many thoughts on that theme, and am looking to cut my hours by about 50% over the next few years. I have rather enjoyed being home with dog and garden.
You could easily imagine it causing a ripple effect with slipped schedules etc.
It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
To lose their majority he has to be blamed specifically by leave Tory voters though. Probably 15-25% of them. We are a long way from that, although white van man and Ford Mondeo man in the m25 marginals might be starting to waver.
Midpoint of voting right now would probably be "2016 was a mistake, but we have to go through with this and right now Brexit is being badly managed."
So will voters go for a party who believe in Brexit but aren't doing a good job with it? Or a party that, even now, really doesn't believe?
I can see arguments against each side.
With FPTP I am not convinced the midpoint view is that relevant. One group that really matter are Tory 2019 switchers who presumably were quite committed to Brexit. They still are and if they do turn against Brexit then it will be well after the median view changes.
What would a mid point politics be? Until the EU/Europe matter is laid to rest it's unclear. ATM I expect the next election, Brexitwise, to be:
Tories: Stick with the only party that believes in it LD: Rejoin Lab: we don't accept the premise of Brexit but don't want to rejoin either. We will manage what we don't believe in better than the Tories who sort of do. Green: Rejoin SNP: Scotland rejoin.
One of these policies sticks out like an unconvincing sore thumb. Which can it be?
LD policy for next GE is not Rejoin, but rather closer alignment particularly on areas like food, agriculture etc.
There is also the small matter that quite a few Tories and Leavers are going off Brexit, or at least how the Johnson government has done it.
Just heard this and it made me smile. The Govt has brought forward the deadline for getting petrol and diesel cars off the road from 2035 to Monday.
It's also accelerated levelling-up by making sure that there is a plentiful supply of petrol in the North and Midlands, while those in London and the South East suffer from empty forecourts. Clever.
It's interesting. If true - that there is a regional aspect.
Are there fewer fuel stations per head of driving population in SE?
Are SE types more prone to panic? (Gritty Yorkshire men refuse to be moved by southern bed wetting petrol worries?)
SE peeps drive a lot more? Yet the SE has the most intense public transport infrastructure having had billions invested for decades whilst the North gets the odd peanut (copyright A Burnham)
I've just had to endure "The Captain Underpants Movie" for the x'th time (where x is probably well over ten).
Pity me...
I don't. I loved reading the books to the kids 10 years ago. They are too old for the movie now. I'm not!!!
It's a good movie.
Just not that many times.
During the Pandemic, if the little 'un's done well with his schoolwork, or just done something worth rewarding, we have a pizza-and-film night. Where he chooses the film,
I think the last sentence is where we're going wrong ...
It is 80 years since the Babi Yar massacre. Extraordinary to think there are still people alive who were contemporaries of some of the victims.
And the perpetrators.. (not sure if any of the perps themselves are still around)
I think I meant coeval by contemporary. There may be a couple of perps still around but not many.
The novel The White Hotel by D M Thomas is worth reading if you haven't. I'm still not sure if it is unbelievably brilliant or a bit eeeuw. The author's sin used to post here
Just heard this and it made me smile. The Govt has brought forward the deadline for getting petrol and diesel cars off the road from 2035 to Monday.
It's also accelerated levelling-up by making sure that there is a plentiful supply of petrol in the North and Midlands, while those in London and the South East suffer from empty forecourts. Clever.
It's interesting. If true - that there is a regional aspect.
Are there fewer fuel stations per head of driving population in SE?
Are SE types more prone to panic? (Gritty Yorkshire men refuse to be moved by southern bed wetting petrol worries?)
SE peeps drive a lot more? Yet the SE has the most intense public transport infrastructure having had billions invested for decades whilst the North gets the odd peanut (copyright A Burnham)
The public transport is 'in and out of London' and nothing else if you live outside of London. No cross country trains or buses to speak of.
It is 80 years since the Babi Yar massacre. Extraordinary to think there are still people alive who were contemporaries of some of the victims.
And the perpetrators.. (not sure if any of the perps themselves are still around)
I think I meant coeval by contemporary. There may be a couple of perps still around but not many.
The novel The White Hotel by D M Thomas is worth reading if you haven't. I'm still not sure if it is unbelievably brilliant or a bit eeeuw. The author's sin used to post here
It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
To lose their majority he has to be blamed specifically by leave Tory voters though. Probably 15-25% of them. We are a long way from that, although white van man and Ford Mondeo man in the m25 marginals might be starting to waver.
Midpoint of voting right now would probably be "2016 was a mistake, but we have to go through with this and right now Brexit is being badly managed."
So will voters go for a party who believe in Brexit but aren't doing a good job with it? Or a party that, even now, really doesn't believe?
I can see arguments against each side.
With FPTP I am not convinced the midpoint view is that relevant. One group that really matter are Tory 2019 switchers who presumably were quite committed to Brexit. They still are and if they do turn against Brexit then it will be well after the median view changes.
What would a mid point politics be? Until the EU/Europe matter is laid to rest it's unclear. ATM I expect the next election, Brexitwise, to be:
Tories: Stick with the only party that believes in it LD: Rejoin Lab: we don't accept the premise of Brexit but don't want to rejoin either. We will manage what we don't believe in better than the Tories who sort of do. Green: Rejoin SNP: Scotland rejoin.
One of these policies sticks out like an unconvincing sore thumb. Which can it be?
LD policy for next GE is not Rejoin, but rather closer alignment particularly on areas like food, agriculture etc.
There is also the small matter that quite a few Tories and Leavers are going off Brexit, or at least how the Johnson government has done it.
From what I read of LD policy, it has some strange assumptions underneath and is a rather presumptive "slowly, slowly, catchee monkey" strategy. Along the lines of "we know these fools won't stop believing until it really hurts, so let's wait for that."
They will have a problem if / when (delete as necessary) it starts delivering benefits.
Seattle Times ($) - ‘Bad cop’: Seattle’s Pramila Jayapal emerges as key power player in Biden negotiations
With trillions of dollars and potentially all of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda on the line, Democratic U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal stared down her own party’s leadership. She didn’t blink.
All day Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., had said the House would vote that day on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that represents a small portion of Biden’s agenda.
And all day, Jayapal had said that she, and most of the 96-member Congressional Progressive Caucus that she leads, would not vote for the infrastructure bill unless it was paired with the rest of Biden’s agenda — a vast $3.5 trillion package to raise taxes on the wealthy, make community college free, provide child care and paid family leave, expand Medicare and invest in programs to combat climate change.
Thursday evening, one of the few moderate Democrats skeptical of the bigger package told CNN he was “1,000 percent” certain the infrastructure bill would pass that night. Moments later, Jayapal said she was certain there would be no vote and if there was, it wouldn’t pass.
Jayapal was right. Realizing she didn’t have the votes, Pelosi never brought the bill up for a vote Thursday night.
Jayapal, the third-term congresswoman from West Seattle, has become one of the key negotiators as Democrats, with razor-thin majorities in the House and the Senate, try to pass the ambitious health care, child care, education and climate proposals that Biden ran on and are critical to the success of his presidency.
Biden’s agenda is split into those two bills and Jayapal, and the newly energized and organized progressive wing of the party, is trying to make sure that the smaller one doesn’t pass without the larger one. . . .
The Senate has passed the physical infrastructure package, boosting spending for roads, transit and broadband internet. It was negotiated, in part, by two centrist Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, of Arizona.
But Manchin and Sinema have balked at the larger bill. And, with Democrats having only a one-vote majority in the Senate, and no hopes of getting even a single Republican vote for the larger package, they can’t afford to lose either senator.
Meanwhile, Jayapal and her progressive caucus have used the infrastructure bill as leverage. Ultimately, they’ll support it, but they are refusing to vote for it until Manchin and Sinema (and the rest of the Senate) sign on to some form of the climate and social programs package. . . .
“Jayapal is providing a master class these last few weeks in how to wield power,” wrote Brian Fallon, director of the progressive group Demand Justice . . . .
“It allowed the Biden administration to sort of stand back,” he said. “They let Jayapal be the bad cop here, I think there’s sort of a wink-wink relationship in her making these demands. . . " . . . .
Sounds like classic party within a party action. Whatever happened to the Tea Party? I guess they are now just the whole party?
France 24 has been framing this as moderates vs progressives Which is interesting.
Sure, but those terms don't really mean anything, people just self identify as them to mean 'sensible/realist' and 'good'.
It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
To lose their majority he has to be blamed specifically by leave Tory voters though. Probably 15-25% of them. We are a long way from that, although white van man and Ford Mondeo man in the m25 marginals might be starting to waver.
Midpoint of voting right now would probably be "2016 was a mistake, but we have to go through with this and right now Brexit is being badly managed."
So will voters go for a party who believe in Brexit but aren't doing a good job with it? Or a party that, even now, really doesn't believe?
I can see arguments against each side.
With FPTP I am not convinced the midpoint view is that relevant. One group that really matter are Tory 2019 switchers who presumably were quite committed to Brexit. They still are and if they do turn against Brexit then it will be well after the median view changes.
What would a mid point politics be? Until the EU/Europe matter is laid to rest it's unclear. ATM I expect the next election, Brexitwise, to be:
Tories: Stick with the only party that believes in it LD: Rejoin Lab: we don't accept the premise of Brexit but don't want to rejoin either. We will manage what we don't believe in better than the Tories who sort of do. Green: Rejoin SNP: Scotland rejoin.
One of these policies sticks out like an unconvincing sore thumb. Which can it be?
LD policy for next GE is not Rejoin, but rather closer alignment particularly on areas like food, agriculture etc.
There is also the small matter that quite a few Tories and Leavers are going off Brexit, or at least how the Johnson government has done it.
From what I read of LD policy, it has some strange assumptions underneath and is a rather presumptive "slowly, slowly, catchee monkey" strategy. Along the lines of "we know these fools won't stop believing until it really hurts, so let's wait for that."
They will have a problem if / when (delete as necessary) it starts delivering benefits.
i don't think we shall know the positions until much later. I am predicting!
Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.
If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.
If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.
If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.
And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.
Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.
Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.
The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.
A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.
Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.
A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
Question- because this isn't something I know much about, but the implications bother me...
Isn't the key thing about interest rates the difference between interest and inflation? Roughly interest > inflation leads to contraction, interest < inflation leads to expansion.
In which case, doesn't a move from minimal inflation to some inflation mean that interest rates have to go up to keep up? If they don't, isn't there a positive feedback loop leading to higher inflation down the line?
Yes. It's known as the Taylor principle, after the economist John Taylor. Interest rates should go up more than one-for-one with inflation, so that real rates go up, if the central bank wants to tighten monetary policy to control inflation.
Ta. So why are so many people optimistic that this bit of inflation will pass through as a blip and then dissipate?
Because a lot of it is coming through energy prices, which are typically volatile and likely to revert by the time monetary policy bites. Plus there are base effects and distortions from VAT changes. But I suspect some of this will prove quite persistent, and the BOE is coming to a similar conclusion, hence talking up the likelihood of rate hikes sooner rather than later.
True, although it's worth pointing out that we've had many false alarms about rising rates over the last 15 years.
FWIW I don't think they will go until May. I think the data on the broader economic outlook will probably be too shitty for them to go in Feb or (even less likely) this year. But they are certainly talking a hawkish talk.
I reckon they go in February but only a 15bp hike to 0.25%.
It would show they are serious in their intent while probably still only having a small real world impact.
It is 80 years since the Babi Yar massacre. Extraordinary to think there are still people alive who were contemporaries of some of the victims.
And the perpetrators.. (not sure if any of the perps themselves are still around)
I think I meant coeval by contemporary. There may be a couple of perps still around but not many.
The novel The White Hotel by D M Thomas is worth reading if you haven't. I'm still not sure if it is unbelievably brilliant or a bit eeeuw. The author's sin used to post here
Sin is excellent!
I did read it around the time it was published and had the Booker hooha going on. My main memory is feeling it was a bit overheated, but I was but a callow youth then.
It is 80 years since the Babi Yar massacre. Extraordinary to think there are still people alive who were contemporaries of some of the victims.
And the perpetrators.. (not sure if any of the perps themselves are still around)
I think I meant coeval by contemporary. There may be a couple of perps still around but not many.
The novel The White Hotel by D M Thomas is worth reading if you haven't. I'm still not sure if it is unbelievably brilliant or a bit eeeuw. The author's sin used to post here
Sin is excellent!
I did read it around the time it was published and had the Booker hooha going on. My main memory is feeling it was a bit overheated, but I was but a callow youth then.
I enjoyed it greatly. Not Captain Underpants, mind.
Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.
If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.
If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.
If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.
And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.
Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.
Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.
The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.
A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.
Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.
A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
Question- because this isn't something I know much about, but the implications bother me...
Isn't the key thing about interest rates the difference between interest and inflation? Roughly interest > inflation leads to contraction, interest < inflation leads to expansion.
In which case, doesn't a move from minimal inflation to some inflation mean that interest rates have to go up to keep up? If they don't, isn't there a positive feedback loop leading to higher inflation down the line?
Yes. It's known as the Taylor principle, after the economist John Taylor. Interest rates should go up more than one-for-one with inflation, so that real rates go up, if the central bank wants to tighten monetary policy to control inflation.
Ta. So why are so many people optimistic that this bit of inflation will pass through as a blip and then dissipate?
Because a lot of it is coming through energy prices, which are typically volatile and likely to revert by the time monetary policy bites. Plus there are base effects and distortions from VAT changes. But I suspect some of this will prove quite persistent, and the BOE is coming to a similar conclusion, hence talking up the likelihood of rate hikes sooner rather than later.
True, although it's worth pointing out that we've had many false alarms about rising rates over the last 15 years.
FWIW I don't think they will go until May. I think the data on the broader economic outlook will probably be too shitty for them to go in Feb or (even less likely) this year. But they are certainly talking a hawkish talk.
I reckon they go in February but only a 15bp hike to 0.25%.
It would show they are serious in their intent while probably still only having a small real world impact.
They will almost certainly do 15bp no matter when they go.
It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
To lose their majority he has to be blamed specifically by leave Tory voters though. Probably 15-25% of them. We are a long way from that, although white van man and Ford Mondeo man in the m25 marginals might be starting to waver.
Midpoint of voting right now would probably be "2016 was a mistake, but we have to go through with this and right now Brexit is being badly managed."
So will voters go for a party who believe in Brexit but aren't doing a good job with it? Or a party that, even now, really doesn't believe?
I can see arguments against each side.
With FPTP I am not convinced the midpoint view is that relevant. One group that really matter are Tory 2019 switchers who presumably were quite committed to Brexit. They still are and if they do turn against Brexit then it will be well after the median view changes.
What would a mid point politics be? Until the EU/Europe matter is laid to rest it's unclear. ATM I expect the next election, Brexitwise, to be:
Tories: Stick with the only party that believes in it LD: Rejoin Lab: we don't accept the premise of Brexit but don't want to rejoin either. We will manage what we don't believe in better than the Tories who sort of do. Green: Rejoin SNP: Scotland rejoin.
One of these policies sticks out like an unconvincing sore thumb. Which can it be?
LD policy for next GE is not Rejoin, but rather closer alignment particularly on areas like food, agriculture etc.
There is also the small matter that quite a few Tories and Leavers are going off Brexit, or at least how the Johnson government has done it.
From what I read of LD policy, it has some strange assumptions underneath and is a rather presumptive "slowly, slowly, catchee monkey" strategy. Along the lines of "we know these fools won't stop believing until it really hurts, so let's wait for that."
They will have a problem if / when (delete as necessary) it starts delivering benefits.
The LD policy is closer alignment, with the ultimate objective being Rejoin, but there is a clear recognition of the need for the UK public to support. Not through pain and "I told you so" but rather by making clear the practical benefits of each step.
I've just had to endure "The Captain Underpants Movie" for the x'th time (where x is probably well over ten).
Pity me...
I don't. I loved reading the books to the kids 10 years ago. They are too old for the movie now. I'm not!!!
It's a good movie.
Just not that many times.
During the Pandemic, if the little 'un's done well with his schoolwork, or just done something worth rewarding, we have a pizza-and-film night. Where he chooses the film,
I think the last sentence is where we're going wrong ...
Your progeny's favorite director? Kurosawa? Peckinpah? Fellini? Bergman? John Ford? David Soren?
Just heard this and it made me smile. The Govt has brought forward the deadline for getting petrol and diesel cars off the road from 2035 to Monday.
It's also accelerated levelling-up by making sure that there is a plentiful supply of petrol in the North and Midlands, while those in London and the South East suffer from empty forecourts. Clever.
It's interesting. If true - that there is a regional aspect.
Are there fewer fuel stations per head of driving population in SE?
Are SE types more prone to panic? (Gritty Yorkshire men refuse to be moved by southern bed wetting petrol worries?)
SE peeps drive a lot more? Yet the SE has the most intense public transport infrastructure having had billions invested for decades whilst the North gets the odd peanut (copyright A Burnham)
It’s mostly that the Londoners and SE drive less on average, so there are fewer petrol stations per car.
In rural areas, people refuel (say) every three days on average, then they’ve continued to do so and there’s been little disruption.
In London, on the other hand, where many people fill their cars every two or three weeks, them all rushing to do so in three days causes seven times the normal demand in those areas.
I believe I took on board your recommendation, and that of my older daughter (who lobes it) and finally took the plunge. It's fantastic. Simple, yet visceral
Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.
If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.
If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.
If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.
And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.
Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.
Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.
The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.
A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.
Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.
A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
It may be tough but it's exactly what the economy needs (exc the bear market).
People need to start thinking about housing as a cost and not an asset. People don't celebrate food costs going up so why housing costs? Declining prices are needed for affordability ... And higher inflation would help avoid negative equity.
I agree that a massive correction is necessary, but also think that the political consequences of, say, normal interest rates, house prices in SE/London that bore relation to the lives of the middling sort, and inflation would be catastrophic for whoever happened to be holding the baby when the music stops.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Not having a correction is going to be utterly catastrophic in the long term too.
While the government is popular and the opposition isn't, is precisely the time to get through much needed corrections. If they don't, then what's the point in them?
How does a correction help if its cause it's anything other than expanding supply? Like saying the Titanic should have done more to make lifeboat places more *affordable.*
Well yes more available Titanic lifeboats could have saved more lives. While you'd rather not need a lifeboat if you are ever in a position where you need a lifeboat then it is better to have one available, than to not have it available.
A correction is going to help ultimately for everyone who needs a correction, though ideally I 100% agree it should be because of expanded supply. I've made my position on increasing supply clear though also lower demand could also be an improvement in the future.
It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
To lose their majority he has to be blamed specifically by leave Tory voters though. Probably 15-25% of them. We are a long way from that, although white van man and Ford Mondeo man in the m25 marginals might be starting to waver.
Midpoint of voting right now would probably be "2016 was a mistake, but we have to go through with this and right now Brexit is being badly managed."
So will voters go for a party who believe in Brexit but aren't doing a good job with it? Or a party that, even now, really doesn't believe?
I can see arguments against each side.
With FPTP I am not convinced the midpoint view is that relevant. One group that really matter are Tory 2019 switchers who presumably were quite committed to Brexit. They still are and if they do turn against Brexit then it will be well after the median view changes.
What would a mid point politics be? Until the EU/Europe matter is laid to rest it's unclear. ATM I expect the next election, Brexitwise, to be:
Tories: Stick with the only party that believes in it LD: Rejoin Lab: we don't accept the premise of Brexit but don't want to rejoin either. We will manage what we don't believe in better than the Tories who sort of do. Green: Rejoin SNP: Scotland rejoin.
One of these policies sticks out like an unconvincing sore thumb. Which can it be?
LD policy for next GE is not Rejoin, but rather closer alignment particularly on areas like food, agriculture etc.
There is also the small matter that quite a few Tories and Leavers are going off Brexit, or at least how the Johnson government has done it.
From what I read of LD policy, it has some strange assumptions underneath and is a rather presumptive "slowly, slowly, catchee monkey" strategy. Along the lines of "we know these fools won't stop believing until it really hurts, so let's wait for that."
They will have a problem if / when (delete as necessary) it starts delivering benefits.
The LD policy is closer alignment, with the ultimate objective being Rejoin, but there is a clear recognition of the need for the UK public to support. Not through pain and "I told you so" but rather by making clear the practical benefits of each step.
Re: your last sentence, logically there is clear difference between the two approaches. But in terms of practical politicking, not so much. Certainly as opponents (to LDs and/or EU) will argue & believe (at least to some extent if not totally) that that what you call "making clear the practical benefits" is really just more badmouthing of Brexit.
It is 80 years since the Babi Yar massacre. Extraordinary to think there are still people alive who were contemporaries of some of the victims.
And the perpetrators.. (not sure if any of the perps themselves are still around)
I think I meant coeval by contemporary. There may be a couple of perps still around but not many.
The novel The White Hotel by D M Thomas is worth reading if you haven't. I'm still not sure if it is unbelievably brilliant or a bit eeeuw. The author's sin used to post here
Sin is excellent!
I did read it around the time it was published and had the Booker hooha going on. My main memory is feeling it was a bit overheated, but I was but a callow youth then.
I enjoyed it greatly. Not Captain Underpants, mind.
Hauptsturmführer Underpants perhaps.
Checking Wiki it appears that Streisand, Brittany Murphy and Nicole Kidman have been considered for the main female character in a possible film of the book, which is quite a thought.
I've just had to endure "The Captain Underpants Movie" for the x'th time (where x is probably well over ten).
Pity me...
I don't. I loved reading the books to the kids 10 years ago. They are too old for the movie now. I'm not!!!
It's a good movie.
Just not that many times.
During the Pandemic, if the little 'un's done well with his schoolwork, or just done something worth rewarding, we have a pizza-and-film night. Where he chooses the film,
I think the last sentence is where we're going wrong ...
Just heard this and it made me smile. The Govt has brought forward the deadline for getting petrol and diesel cars off the road from 2035 to Monday.
It's also accelerated levelling-up by making sure that there is a plentiful supply of petrol in the North and Midlands, while those in London and the South East suffer from empty forecourts. Clever.
It's interesting. If true - that there is a regional aspect.
Are there fewer fuel stations per head of driving population in SE?
Are SE types more prone to panic? (Gritty Yorkshire men refuse to be moved by southern bed wetting petrol worries?)
SE peeps drive a lot more? Yet the SE has the most intense public transport infrastructure having had billions invested for decades whilst the North gets the odd peanut (copyright A Burnham)
It’s mostly that the Londoners and SE drive less on average, so there are fewer petrol stations per car.
In rural areas, people refuel (say) every three days on average, then they’ve continued to do so and there’s been little disruption.
In London, on the other hand, where many people fill their cars every two or three weeks, them all rushing to do so in three days causes seven times the normal demand in those areas.
There have been no queues outside any of the petrol stations I have passed in SE London in recent days.
I've just had to endure "The Captain Underpants Movie" for the x'th time (where x is probably well over ten).
Pity me...
I don't. I loved reading the books to the kids 10 years ago. They are too old for the movie now. I'm not!!!
It's a good movie.
Just not that many times.
During the Pandemic, if the little 'un's done well with his schoolwork, or just done something worth rewarding, we have a pizza-and-film night. Where he chooses the film,
I think the last sentence is where we're going wrong ...
The Chinese will be next. They are absolutely brilliant at visual propaganda now. Some of their anti-Covid posters make the best western efforts look lame
They will move on to TV and movies and then pop music (like Korea), and take those from us, too
Our only "hope" is that demographic calamity overwhelms them first. And this must, genuinely, soon be a problem for the youthful music and media industries of Korea, Taiwan, HK. Fast shrinking talent pools
I saw a trailer last night, it looks like a Korean dystopian Hunger Games?
Looks interesting.
In a way it is better than the Hunger Games (which were excellent). It is closer to reality yet scarier. It doesn't feel like a brilliant dystopic fairy tale, it feels like the world in maybe 3 years, if things go badly awry
I've just had to endure "The Captain Underpants Movie" for the x'th time (where x is probably well over ten).
Pity me...
I don't. I loved reading the books to the kids 10 years ago. They are too old for the movie now. I'm not!!!
It's a good movie.
Just not that many times.
During the Pandemic, if the little 'un's done well with his schoolwork, or just done something worth rewarding, we have a pizza-and-film night. Where he chooses the film,
I think the last sentence is where we're going wrong ...
How old is he ?
Seven. This does limit the choice of films somewhat ...
The Chinese will be next. They are absolutely brilliant at visual propaganda now. Some of their anti-Covid posters make the best western efforts look lame
They will move on to TV and movies and then pop music (like Korea), and take those from us, too
Our only "hope" is that demographic calamity overwhelms them first. And this must, genuinely, soon be a problem for the youthful music and media industries of Korea, Taiwan, HK. Fast shrinking talent pools
Not sure that is true. Japanese youth culture has maintained its influence despite their ageing demographics.
Partly it is people refusing to grow up, as we see with Boomers and Gen X here.
I've just had to endure "The Captain Underpants Movie" for the x'th time (where x is probably well over ten).
Pity me...
I don't. I loved reading the books to the kids 10 years ago. They are too old for the movie now. I'm not!!!
It's a good movie.
Just not that many times.
During the Pandemic, if the little 'un's done well with his schoolwork, or just done something worth rewarding, we have a pizza-and-film night. Where he chooses the film,
I think the last sentence is where we're going wrong ...
How old is he ?
Seven. This does limit the choice of films somewhat ...
It’s also worth remembering the Bank of England has purchased an additional £400bn+ of gilts since the start of the Covid pandemic, thereby meaning the government’s net issuance hasn’t been too different to normal.
That all ends from the end of this year. The government won’t get any further help financing its deficit. Worth bearing in mind when the budget comes along.
I've just had to endure "The Captain Underpants Movie" for the x'th time (where x is probably well over ten).
Pity me...
I don't. I loved reading the books to the kids 10 years ago. They are too old for the movie now. I'm not!!!
It's a good movie.
Just not that many times.
During the Pandemic, if the little 'un's done well with his schoolwork, or just done something worth rewarding, we have a pizza-and-film night. Where he chooses the film,
I think the last sentence is where we're going wrong ...
How old is he ?
Seven. This does limit the choice of films somewhat ...
Almost old enough to open up a whole series of really great kids movies though, so perhaps variety will be there soon.
It’s also worth remembering the Bank of England has purchased an additional £400bn+ of gilts since the start of the Covid pandemic, thereby meaning the government’s net issuance hasn’t been too different to normal.
That all ends from the end of this year. The government won’t get any further help financing its deficit. Worth bearing in mind when the budget comes along.
While its supposed to end at the end of this year, there's every chance it could be continued past then if required.
Don't forget additional rounds of QE following the financial crisis happened in 2012 and 2016 (from memory).
Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.
If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.
If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.
If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.
And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.
Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.
Lady Starmer, shurely?
Haven’t had one of those in No. 10 in a few years. Not since Lady Douglas-Home in 1964, who apparently had more changes of name than any other once–married woman due to her husband continually changing his title.
Although in the course of 1 day my mother was called (in order):
- Darling - Mrs [my father’s first name] - Her first name - Mrs [her surname] - Ma’am - Your Honour [that was an error] - Your Worship - Mum - The Honorable Mrs [her name]
I've just had to endure "The Captain Underpants Movie" for the x'th time (where x is probably well over ten).
Pity me...
I don't. I loved reading the books to the kids 10 years ago. They are too old for the movie now. I'm not!!!
It's a good movie.
Just not that many times.
During the Pandemic, if the little 'un's done well with his schoolwork, or just done something worth rewarding, we have a pizza-and-film night. Where he chooses the film,
I think the last sentence is where we're going wrong ...
How old is he ?
Seven. This does limit the choice of films somewhat ...
Try him with Seven...
Yes. On second thoughts, no ...
(He's had a plush Cthulhu toy since he was born, so perhaps he will be a horror fan.)
The Chinese will be next. They are absolutely brilliant at visual propaganda now. Some of their anti-Covid posters make the best western efforts look lame
They will move on to TV and movies and then pop music (like Korea), and take those from us, too
Our only "hope" is that demographic calamity overwhelms them first. And this must, genuinely, soon be a problem for the youthful music and media industries of Korea, Taiwan, HK. Fast shrinking talent pools
Not sure that is true. Japanese youth culture has maintained its influence despite their ageing demographics.
Partly it is people refusing to grow up, as we see with Boomers and Gen X here.
The decline, indeed exhaustion, of western popular music is not a good sign. It is, or was, something we were BRILLIANT at for so long, at the same time as we ruled the world: no coincidence
It denotes a civilisation approaching stagnancy and therefore irrelevance. Like the decline of visual art in France in the 1930s-40s, or in Italy heading for the end of the 18th century
Or Islam, in nearly all ways, after the loss of Andalusia
It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
To lose their majority he has to be blamed specifically by leave Tory voters though. Probably 15-25% of them. We are a long way from that, although white van man and Ford Mondeo man in the m25 marginals might be starting to waver.
Midpoint of voting right now would probably be "2016 was a mistake, but we have to go through with this and right now Brexit is being badly managed."
So will voters go for a party who believe in Brexit but aren't doing a good job with it? Or a party that, even now, really doesn't believe?
I can see arguments against each side.
With FPTP I am not convinced the midpoint view is that relevant. One group that really matter are Tory 2019 switchers who presumably were quite committed to Brexit. They still are and if they do turn against Brexit then it will be well after the median view changes.
What would a mid point politics be? Until the EU/Europe matter is laid to rest it's unclear. ATM I expect the next election, Brexitwise, to be:
Tories: Stick with the only party that believes in it LD: Rejoin Lab: we don't accept the premise of Brexit but don't want to rejoin either. We will manage what we don't believe in better than the Tories who sort of do. Green: Rejoin SNP: Scotland rejoin.
One of these policies sticks out like an unconvincing sore thumb. Which can it be?
LD policy for next GE is not Rejoin, but rather closer alignment particularly on areas like food, agriculture etc.
There is also the small matter that quite a few Tories and Leavers are going off Brexit, or at least how the Johnson government has done it.
From what I read of LD policy, it has some strange assumptions underneath and is a rather presumptive "slowly, slowly, catchee monkey" strategy. Along the lines of "we know these fools won't stop believing until it really hurts, so let's wait for that."
They will have a problem if / when (delete as necessary) it starts delivering benefits.
The LD policy is closer alignment, with the ultimate objective being Rejoin, but there is a clear recognition of the need for the UK public to support. Not through pain and "I told you so" but rather by making clear the practical benefits of each step.
A major difficulty with the closer alignment policy is what happens when you try to put flesh on the bones. Relating to the EU is a series of binary choices in which there are no options that give people in a 'middle' position what they want. So, for example, you are either in the SM or out of it. You are either a 3rd country or you are not.
One Hunger Games-esque story I quite liked was the book Red Rising (the series thereafter is not ver Hunger Games like, and is pretty good), because instead of pointlessly cruel dystopic government torturing kids from a nonsensically stratified society for no real reason, it was teenagers belonging to the ruling elite who were being pitted against each other in a Hunger Games scenario. Admittedly as part of an insane soceity warped by genetic manipulation, but it was just enough of a tweak to formula to have it be something they were doing to themselves, as part of ensuring they remained tough and ruthless, than because they were psychotic.
It’s also worth remembering the Bank of England has purchased an additional £400bn+ of gilts since the start of the Covid pandemic, thereby meaning the government’s net issuance hasn’t been too different to normal.
That all ends from the end of this year. The government won’t get any further help financing its deficit. Worth bearing in mind when the budget comes along.
While its supposed to end at the end of this year, there's every chance it could be continued past then if required.
Don't forget additional rounds of QE following the financial crisis happened in 2012 and 2016 (from memory).
True, but more likely the opposite in practice.
There was a fairly damning House of Lords report into the use of QE referencing the common perception it has been used over Covid in part to finance the deficit. The Bank of England was not pleased with this and responded by setting out its plans to reduce existing QE stocks (I.e. quantitative tightening) by not reinvesting maturing gilt proceeds once rates reach 0.5%. It will consider actively selling once rates reach 1%.
I’d put the chances of further QE next year at pretty much zero.
Squid Game is really good so far (on episode 4 tonight), reminds me a bit of Battle Royale which is one of my all time favourite films. It's gripping stuff, very binge worthy.
Korean Cinema has been good for quite a while. Train to Busan, The Yellow Sea, The Chaser, Man for Nowhere, Oldboy etc.
Seattle Times ($) - ‘Bad cop’: Seattle’s Pramila Jayapal emerges as key power player in Biden negotiations
With trillions of dollars and potentially all of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda on the line, Democratic U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal stared down her own party’s leadership. She didn’t blink.
All day Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., had said the House would vote that day on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that represents a small portion of Biden’s agenda.
And all day, Jayapal had said that she, and most of the 96-member Congressional Progressive Caucus that she leads, would not vote for the infrastructure bill unless it was paired with the rest of Biden’s agenda — a vast $3.5 trillion package to raise taxes on the wealthy, make community college free, provide child care and paid family leave, expand Medicare and invest in programs to combat climate change.
Thursday evening, one of the few moderate Democrats skeptical of the bigger package told CNN he was “1,000 percent” certain the infrastructure bill would pass that night. Moments later, Jayapal said she was certain there would be no vote and if there was, it wouldn’t pass.
Jayapal was right. Realizing she didn’t have the votes, Pelosi never brought the bill up for a vote Thursday night.
Jayapal, the third-term congresswoman from West Seattle, has become one of the key negotiators as Democrats, with razor-thin majorities in the House and the Senate, try to pass the ambitious health care, child care, education and climate proposals that Biden ran on and are critical to the success of his presidency.
Biden’s agenda is split into those two bills and Jayapal, and the newly energized and organized progressive wing of the party, is trying to make sure that the smaller one doesn’t pass without the larger one. . . .
The Senate has passed the physical infrastructure package, boosting spending for roads, transit and broadband internet. It was negotiated, in part, by two centrist Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, of Arizona.
But Manchin and Sinema have balked at the larger bill. And, with Democrats having only a one-vote majority in the Senate, and no hopes of getting even a single Republican vote for the larger package, they can’t afford to lose either senator.
Meanwhile, Jayapal and her progressive caucus have used the infrastructure bill as leverage. Ultimately, they’ll support it, but they are refusing to vote for it until Manchin and Sinema (and the rest of the Senate) sign on to some form of the climate and social programs package. . . .
“Jayapal is providing a master class these last few weeks in how to wield power,” wrote Brian Fallon, director of the progressive group Demand Justice . . . .
“It allowed the Biden administration to sort of stand back,” he said. “They let Jayapal be the bad cop here, I think there’s sort of a wink-wink relationship in her making these demands. . . " . . . .
Surely as soon as an element of social or climate package is attached to the infrastructure bill then
- either the infrastructure bill is dead (if the GOP opposes) - Or the larger deal is dead (if Manchin or Sinena think they have done their bit)
I wonder what a psychiatrist would make of Johnsons obsession with dressing in costume? Thatcher used to do it to a limited extent but nothing like Johnson. I can only think of Grayson Perry who comes close. Prince Charles in his younger days went through a phase but it didn't last. The danger is that where the leader goes others follow, Already Sunak's started. It might be acceptable for the Prime Minister to look like a clown but not the Chancellor
I wonder what a psychiatrist would make of Johnsons obsession with dressing in costume? Thatcher used to do it to a limited extent but nothing like Johnson. I can only think of Grayson Perry who comes close. Prince Charles in his younger days went through a phase but it didn't last. The danger is that where the leader goes others follow, Already Sunak's started. It might be acceptable for the Prime Minister to look like a clown but not the Chancellor
I wonder what a psychiatrist would make of Johnsons obsession with dressing in costume? Thatcher used to do it to a limited extent but nothing like Johnson. I can only think of Grayson Perry who comes close. Prince Charles in his younger days went through a phase but it didn't last. The danger is that where the leader goes others follow, Already Sunak's started. It might be acceptable for the Prime Minister to look like a clown but not the Chancellor
Politicians left right and centre do this sort of thing, no need to call the psychiatrist.
Just heard this and it made me smile. The Govt has brought forward the deadline for getting petrol and diesel cars off the road from 2035 to Monday.
It's also accelerated levelling-up by making sure that there is a plentiful supply of petrol in the North and Midlands, while those in London and the South East suffer from empty forecourts. Clever.
It's interesting. If true - that there is a regional aspect.
Are there fewer fuel stations per head of driving population in SE?
Are SE types more prone to panic? (Gritty Yorkshire men refuse to be moved by southern bed wetting petrol worries?)
SE peeps drive a lot more? Yet the SE has the most intense public transport infrastructure having had billions invested for decades whilst the North gets the odd peanut (copyright A Burnham)
The public transport is 'in and out of London' and nothing else if you live outside of London. No cross country trains or buses to speak of.
Quite, London is the black hole attractor. Or trou noir as our French friends call black holes.
I've just had to endure "The Captain Underpants Movie" for the x'th time (where x is probably well over ten).
Pity me...
I don't. I loved reading the books to the kids 10 years ago. They are too old for the movie now. I'm not!!!
It's a good movie.
Just not that many times.
During the Pandemic, if the little 'un's done well with his schoolwork, or just done something worth rewarding, we have a pizza-and-film night. Where he chooses the film,
I think the last sentence is where we're going wrong ...
How old is he ?
Seven. This does limit the choice of films somewhat ...
Try him with Seven...
Yes. On second thoughts, no ...
(He's had a plush Cthulhu toy since he was born, so perhaps he will be a horror fan.)
If you really want to terrify him, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang.
I wonder what a psychiatrist would make of Johnsons obsession with dressing in costume? Thatcher used to do it to a limited extent but nothing like Johnson. I can only think of Grayson Perry who comes close. Prince Charles in his younger days went through a phase but it didn't last. The danger is that where the leader goes others follow, Already Sunak's started. It might be acceptable for the Prime Minister to look like a clown but not the Chancellor
What are you even on about? Seriously, I cannot tell.
It’s also worth remembering the Bank of England has purchased an additional £400bn+ of gilts since the start of the Covid pandemic, thereby meaning the government’s net issuance hasn’t been too different to normal.
That all ends from the end of this year. The government won’t get any further help financing its deficit. Worth bearing in mind when the budget comes along.
While its supposed to end at the end of this year, there's every chance it could be continued past then if required.
Don't forget additional rounds of QE following the financial crisis happened in 2012 and 2016 (from memory).
True, but more likely the opposite in practice.
There was a fairly damning House of Lords report into the use of QE referencing the common perception it has been used over Covid in part to finance the deficit. The Bank of England was not pleased with this and responded by setting out its plans to reduce existing QE stocks (I.e. quantitative tightening) by not reinvesting maturing gilt proceeds once rates reach 0.5%. It will consider actively selling once rates reach 1%.
I’d put the chances of further QE next year at pretty much zero.
While I can believe that further QE is unlikely, I find the idea of any QT at all utterly implausible.
I wonder what a psychiatrist would make of Johnsons obsession with dressing in costume? Thatcher used to do it to a limited extent but nothing like Johnson. I can only think of Grayson Perry who comes close. Prince Charles in his younger days went through a phase but it didn't last. The danger is that where the leader goes others follow, Already Sunak's started. It might be acceptable for the Prime Minister to look like a clown but not the Chancellor
What are you even on about? Seriously, I cannot tell.
It’s also worth remembering the Bank of England has purchased an additional £400bn+ of gilts since the start of the Covid pandemic, thereby meaning the government’s net issuance hasn’t been too different to normal.
That all ends from the end of this year. The government won’t get any further help financing its deficit. Worth bearing in mind when the budget comes along.
While its supposed to end at the end of this year, there's every chance it could be continued past then if required.
Don't forget additional rounds of QE following the financial crisis happened in 2012 and 2016 (from memory).
True, but more likely the opposite in practice.
There was a fairly damning House of Lords report into the use of QE referencing the common perception it has been used over Covid in part to finance the deficit. The Bank of England was not pleased with this and responded by setting out its plans to reduce existing QE stocks (I.e. quantitative tightening) by not reinvesting maturing gilt proceeds once rates reach 0.5%. It will consider actively selling once rates reach 1%.
I’d put the chances of further QE next year at pretty much zero.
While I can believe that further QE is unlikely, I find the idea of any QT at all utterly implausible.
It’ll happen eventually, but likely in a co-ordinated manner involving most of the West’s central banks acting in unison.
It’s also worth remembering the Bank of England has purchased an additional £400bn+ of gilts since the start of the Covid pandemic, thereby meaning the government’s net issuance hasn’t been too different to normal.
That all ends from the end of this year. The government won’t get any further help financing its deficit. Worth bearing in mind when the budget comes along.
While its supposed to end at the end of this year, there's every chance it could be continued past then if required.
Don't forget additional rounds of QE following the financial crisis happened in 2012 and 2016 (from memory).
True, but more likely the opposite in practice.
There was a fairly damning House of Lords report into the use of QE referencing the common perception it has been used over Covid in part to finance the deficit. The Bank of England was not pleased with this and responded by setting out its plans to reduce existing QE stocks (I.e. quantitative tightening) by not reinvesting maturing gilt proceeds once rates reach 0.5%. It will consider actively selling once rates reach 1%.
I’d put the chances of further QE next year at pretty much zero.
While I can believe that further QE is unlikely, I find the idea of any QT at all utterly implausible.
It’ll happen eventually, but likely in a co-ordinated manner involving most of the West’s central banks acting in unison.
Could be a teensie weenie problem with that. Edit: unless coordinated means not synchronised.
Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.
If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.
If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.
If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.
And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.
Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.
Lady Starmer, shurely?
Haven’t had one of those in No. 10 in a few years. Not since Lady Douglas-Home in 1964, who apparently had more changes of name than any other once–married woman due to her husband continually changing his title.
Although in the course of 1 day my mother was called (in order):
- Darling - Mrs [my father’s first name] - Her first name - Mrs [her surname] - Ma’am - Your Honour [that was an error] - Your Worship - Mum - The Honorable Mrs [her name]
IF she'd somehow flown to the Deep South of the US at the end of the day (on a souped-up Concorde?) she could have added "Miss [first name]" to her list (Miss being pronouced "Miz").
My personal theory, is that American women (and others where similar conventions apply) generally like fact that they've traditionally changed their surnames upon marriage, while still retaining their original names, at least in some situations.
Sometimes my own Sainted Mother would use her first and middle names with my Daddy Dearest's surname. But sometimes she'd use her own original surname as her middle name, depending on context. Or just how the mood struck her.
Interesting that rise of feminism and consequent desire and fashion of many women to NOT be required to adopt their husbands' surnames, has actually expanded the options for all women in US. Including the rise of double-barreled surnames, which when I was a boy was the preserve of high-falutin' Brits.
Which leads me to my second theory: that MALES who were born or promoted into the Anglo-British nobility early on decided to get into the name-change (shape-shifting?) fun. Which led in time to the multitudinous names of the 14th Earl of Home.
Among other things, must be a great way of dodging creditors!
I wonder what a psychiatrist would make of Johnsons obsession with dressing in costume? Thatcher used to do it to a limited extent but nothing like Johnson. I can only think of Grayson Perry who comes close. Prince Charles in his younger days went through a phase but it didn't last. The danger is that where the leader goes others follow, Already Sunak's started. It might be acceptable for the Prime Minister to look like a clown but not the Chancellor
Seattle Times ($) - ‘Bad cop’: Seattle’s Pramila Jayapal emerges as key power player in Biden negotiations
With trillions of dollars and potentially all of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda on the line, Democratic U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal stared down her own party’s leadership. She didn’t blink.
All day Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., had said the House would vote that day on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that represents a small portion of Biden’s agenda.
And all day, Jayapal had said that she, and most of the 96-member Congressional Progressive Caucus that she leads, would not vote for the infrastructure bill unless it was paired with the rest of Biden’s agenda — a vast $3.5 trillion package to raise taxes on the wealthy, make community college free, provide child care and paid family leave, expand Medicare and invest in programs to combat climate change.
Thursday evening, one of the few moderate Democrats skeptical of the bigger package told CNN he was “1,000 percent” certain the infrastructure bill would pass that night. Moments later, Jayapal said she was certain there would be no vote and if there was, it wouldn’t pass.
Jayapal was right. Realizing she didn’t have the votes, Pelosi never brought the bill up for a vote Thursday night.
Jayapal, the third-term congresswoman from West Seattle, has become one of the key negotiators as Democrats, with razor-thin majorities in the House and the Senate, try to pass the ambitious health care, child care, education and climate proposals that Biden ran on and are critical to the success of his presidency.
Biden’s agenda is split into those two bills and Jayapal, and the newly energized and organized progressive wing of the party, is trying to make sure that the smaller one doesn’t pass without the larger one. . . .
The Senate has passed the physical infrastructure package, boosting spending for roads, transit and broadband internet. It was negotiated, in part, by two centrist Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, of Arizona.
But Manchin and Sinema have balked at the larger bill. And, with Democrats having only a one-vote majority in the Senate, and no hopes of getting even a single Republican vote for the larger package, they can’t afford to lose either senator.
Meanwhile, Jayapal and her progressive caucus have used the infrastructure bill as leverage. Ultimately, they’ll support it, but they are refusing to vote for it until Manchin and Sinema (and the rest of the Senate) sign on to some form of the climate and social programs package. . . .
“Jayapal is providing a master class these last few weeks in how to wield power,” wrote Brian Fallon, director of the progressive group Demand Justice . . . .
“It allowed the Biden administration to sort of stand back,” he said. “They let Jayapal be the bad cop here, I think there’s sort of a wink-wink relationship in her making these demands. . . " . . . .
Surely as soon as an element of social or climate package is attached to the infrastructure bill then
- either the infrastructure bill is dead (if the GOP opposes) - Or the larger deal is dead (if Manchin or Sinena think they have done their bit)
Might indeed seem to be the case. BUT somehow I'm pretty certain that you are wrong, and that a deal will indeed get done.
Actually it is ludicrous that he has all the publicity of his speech and change in direction, we have the energy crisis and the fuel crisis and labour go down 2%
I am being honest when I say I just do not understand it unless Corbyn has destroyed the labour brand like Ratner did his
The Chinese will be next. They are absolutely brilliant at visual propaganda now. Some of their anti-Covid posters make the best western efforts look lame
They will move on to TV and movies and then pop music (like Korea), and take those from us, too
Our only "hope" is that demographic calamity overwhelms them first. And this must, genuinely, soon be a problem for the youthful music and media industries of Korea, Taiwan, HK. Fast shrinking talent pools
Not sure that is true. Japanese youth culture has maintained its influence despite their ageing demographics.
Partly it is people refusing to grow up, as we see with Boomers and Gen X here.
The decline, indeed exhaustion, of western popular music is not a good sign. It is, or was, something we were BRILLIANT at for so long, at the same time as we ruled the world: no coincidence
It denotes a civilisation approaching stagnancy and therefore irrelevance. Like the decline of visual art in France in the 1930s-40s, or in Italy heading for the end of the 18th century
Or Islam, in nearly all ways, after the loss of Andalusia
I don't buy this. Music has been getting better for the last 20 years. Maybe not 'pop' music, but in general. But the woke thing makes it possible that it will all slam in to reverse, hard to think of any decent woke music.
There was an interview with a russian dissident on Triggernometry last week, he pointed out that China have produced absolutely nothing in terms of decent pop music, hard to disagree with that.
It’s also worth remembering the Bank of England has purchased an additional £400bn+ of gilts since the start of the Covid pandemic, thereby meaning the government’s net issuance hasn’t been too different to normal.
That all ends from the end of this year. The government won’t get any further help financing its deficit. Worth bearing in mind when the budget comes along.
While its supposed to end at the end of this year, there's every chance it could be continued past then if required.
Don't forget additional rounds of QE following the financial crisis happened in 2012 and 2016 (from memory).
True, but more likely the opposite in practice.
There was a fairly damning House of Lords report into the use of QE referencing the common perception it has been used over Covid in part to finance the deficit. The Bank of England was not pleased with this and responded by setting out its plans to reduce existing QE stocks (I.e. quantitative tightening) by not reinvesting maturing gilt proceeds once rates reach 0.5%. It will consider actively selling once rates reach 1%.
I’d put the chances of further QE next year at pretty much zero.
While I can believe that further QE is unlikely, I find the idea of any QT at all utterly implausible.
“It said it would start reducing its stock of bonds when its policy rate reaches 0.5% by not reinvesting the proceeds of maturing debt, as long as that made sense for the economy.”
The Chinese will be next. They are absolutely brilliant at visual propaganda now. Some of their anti-Covid posters make the best western efforts look lame
They will move on to TV and movies and then pop music (like Korea), and take those from us, too
Our only "hope" is that demographic calamity overwhelms them first. And this must, genuinely, soon be a problem for the youthful music and media industries of Korea, Taiwan, HK. Fast shrinking talent pools
Not sure that is true. Japanese youth culture has maintained its influence despite their ageing demographics.
Partly it is people refusing to grow up, as we see with Boomers and Gen X here.
The decline, indeed exhaustion, of western popular music is not a good sign. It is, or was, something we were BRILLIANT at for so long, at the same time as we ruled the world: no coincidence
It denotes a civilisation approaching stagnancy and therefore irrelevance. Like the decline of visual art in France in the 1930s-40s, or in Italy heading for the end of the 18th century
Or Islam, in nearly all ways, after the loss of Andalusia
I don't buy this. Music has been getting better for the last 20 years. Maybe not 'pop' music, but in general. But the woke thing makes it possible that it will all slam in to reverse, hard to think of any decent woke music.
There was an interview with a russian dissident on Triggernometry last week, he pointed out that China have produced absolutely nothing in terms of decent pop music, hard to disagree with that.
Can you elaborate on the assertion that music has been getting better for the last 20 years?
Actually it is ludicrous that he has all the publicity of his speech and change in direction, we have the energy crisis and the fuel crisis and labour go down 2%
I am being honest when I say I just do not understand it unless Corbyn has destroyed the labour brand like Ratner did his
Useless nonentity I mean seriously SKS fans If Starmer can’t lead now then ask yourself: when will he?
I wonder what a psychiatrist would make of Johnsons obsession with dressing in costume? Thatcher used to do it to a limited extent but nothing like Johnson. I can only think of Grayson Perry who comes close. Prince Charles in his younger days went through a phase but it didn't last. The danger is that where the leader goes others follow, Already Sunak's started. It might be acceptable for the Prime Minister to look like a clown but not the Chancellor
Cannae wait for him in highland dress.
....Hey mister what d'ya wear under your sporran?
...Why don't you put your hand in and find out....
...Och! it's GRUESOME!!
...Well why don't you put your hand in again and it'll gruesome more....
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/01/paris-serial-killer-of-80s-and-90s-was-ex-police-officer-dna-shows
Tories: Stick with the only party that believes in it
LD: Rejoin
Lab: we don't accept the premise of Brexit but don't want to rejoin either. We will manage what we don't believe in better than the Tories who sort of do.
Green: Rejoin
SNP: Scotland rejoin.
One of these policies sticks out like an unconvincing sore thumb. Which can it be?
Notice that the other parties are proposing no sort of coherent policy in this areas, just tinkering at the edges.
imho they haven't factored in the inflation wave coming our way. So much money growth.
Part of it seems to be the same phenomenon as we see, labour shortages in key positions. I think there has been a worldwide shift caused by the pandemic over what we might call work-life balance. Indeed I have had many thoughts on that theme, and am looking to cut my hours by about 50% over the next few years. I have rather enjoyed being home with dog and garden.
Sidewall punctured a 10k old tyre by forgetting that my local McDonald's has an 'orrible sweeping kerb on the way in.
Repair man not sympathetic. "£150 Happy Meal. Ouch."
There is also the small matter that quite a few Tories and Leavers are going off Brexit, or at least how the Johnson government has done it.
Are there fewer fuel stations per head of driving population in SE?
Are SE types more prone to panic? (Gritty Yorkshire men refuse to be moved by southern bed wetting petrol worries?)
SE peeps drive a lot more? Yet the SE has the most intense public transport infrastructure having had billions invested for decades whilst the North gets the odd peanut (copyright A Burnham)
(not sure if any of the perps themselves are still around)
Pity me...
I'm not!!!
Just not that many times.
During the Pandemic, if the little 'un's done well with his schoolwork, or just done something worth rewarding, we have a pizza-and-film night. Where he chooses the film,
I think the last sentence is where we're going wrong ...
The novel The White Hotel by D M Thomas is worth reading if you haven't. I'm still not sure if it is unbelievably brilliant or a bit eeeuw. The author's sin used to post here
They will have a problem if / when (delete as necessary) it starts delivering benefits.
It would show they are serious in their intent while probably still only having a small real world impact.
I did read it around the time it was published and had the Booker hooha going on. My main memory is feeling it was a bit overheated, but I was but a callow youth then.
Not Captain Underpants, mind.
In rural areas, people refuel (say) every three days on average, then they’ve continued to do so and there’s been little disruption.
In London, on the other hand, where many people fill their cars every two or three weeks, them all rushing to do so in three days causes seven times the normal demand in those areas.
(Subtitle translations are a bit shit, though.)
The S Korean media sector seems to have outcompeted us despite the language barrier (see also BTS etc.).
Some convoluted corporate structures…
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=316199
A correction is going to help ultimately for everyone who needs a correction, though ideally I 100% agree it should be because of expanded supply. I've made my position on increasing supply clear though also lower demand could also be an improvement in the future.
Looks interesting.
Checking Wiki it appears that Streisand, Brittany Murphy and Nicole Kidman have been considered for the main female character in a possible film of the book, which is quite a thought.
Because they've all been closed.
They will move on to TV and movies and then pop music (like Korea), and take those from us, too
Our only "hope" is that demographic calamity overwhelms them first. And this must, genuinely, soon be a problem for the youthful music and media industries of Korea, Taiwan, HK. Fast shrinking talent pools
Partly it is people refusing to grow up, as we see with Boomers and Gen X here.
That all ends from the end of this year. The government won’t get any further help financing its deficit. Worth bearing in mind when the budget comes along.
Don't forget additional rounds of QE following the financial crisis happened in 2012 and 2016 (from memory).
Agree that Alive (though fun) wasn’t brilliant.
- Darling
- Mrs [my father’s first name]
- Her first name
- Mrs [her surname]
- Ma’am
- Your Honour [that was an error]
- Your Worship
- Mum
- The Honorable Mrs [her name]
(He's had a plush Cthulhu toy since he was born, so perhaps he will be a horror fan.)
https://www.theregister.com/2021/10/01/netflix_sued_by_korean_broadband/
It denotes a civilisation approaching stagnancy and therefore irrelevance. Like the decline of visual art in France in the 1930s-40s, or in Italy heading for the end of the 18th century
Or Islam, in nearly all ways, after the loss of Andalusia
There was a fairly damning House of Lords report into the use of QE referencing the common perception it has been used over Covid in part to finance the deficit. The Bank of England was not pleased with this and responded by setting out its plans to reduce existing QE stocks (I.e. quantitative tightening) by not reinvesting maturing gilt proceeds once rates reach 0.5%. It will consider actively selling once rates reach 1%.
I’d put the chances of further QE next year at pretty much zero.
Korean Cinema has been good for quite a while. Train to Busan, The Yellow Sea, The Chaser, Man for Nowhere, Oldboy etc.
- either the infrastructure bill is dead (if the GOP opposes)
- Or the larger deal is dead (if Manchin or Sinena think they have done their bit)
. Remiember all the betters against. Trump .....
Conservative lead increase by 1% to 4%
Labour down by 2% to 35:
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1444377830633218054?s=19
Edit: unless coordinated means not synchronised.
My personal theory, is that American women (and others where similar conventions apply) generally like fact that they've traditionally changed their surnames upon marriage, while still retaining their original names, at least in some situations.
Sometimes my own Sainted Mother would use her first and middle names with my Daddy Dearest's surname. But sometimes she'd use her own original surname as her middle name, depending on context. Or just how the mood struck her.
Interesting that rise of feminism and consequent desire and fashion of many women to NOT be required to adopt their husbands' surnames, has actually expanded the options for all women in US. Including the rise of double-barreled surnames, which when I was a boy was the preserve of high-falutin' Brits.
Which leads me to my second theory: that MALES who were born or promoted into the Anglo-British nobility early on decided to get into the name-change (shape-shifting?) fun. Which led in time to the multitudinous names of the 14th Earl of Home.
Among other things, must be a great way of dodging creditors!
NOM 2015
Remain 2016
Clinton 2016
Con Maj 2017
Sadiq Khan x2, and Con Maj 2019 have weighed in at shortish odds ( Khan 2016 might not have been that short)
In that sense, Boris is just following the Master.
Both men have/had an innate genius for image.
The difference is, with Boris, that’s all he has.
Lab -2
Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
8m
The @Conservatives lead increases by 1 point after the Labour Party Conference despite a successful speech by Keir Starmer.
The latest numbers for the
@OpiniumResearch
/
@ObserverUK
poll.
Con 39% (-1)
Lab 35% (-2)
Lib Dem 8% (+1)
Green 6% (NC)
But stay tuned . . . and hold on to yer hat!
Actually it is ludicrous that he has all the publicity of his speech and change in direction, we have the energy crisis and the fuel crisis and labour go down 2%
I am being honest when I say I just do not understand it unless Corbyn has destroyed the labour brand like Ratner did his
There was an interview with a russian dissident on Triggernometry last week, he pointed out that China have produced absolutely nothing in terms of decent pop music, hard to disagree with that.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-set-keep-stimulus-pumping-despite-inflation-rebound-2021-08-04/
It may change its mind of course (left it open), but just linking to provide support for my assertion!
As I said before; markets now expect interest rates to reach 0.5%/0.75% next year so very gradual QT on those lines is a distinct possibility.
....Hey mister what d'ya wear under your sporran?
...Why don't you put your hand in and find out....
...Och! it's GRUESOME!!
...Well why don't you put your hand in again and it'll gruesome more....