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The pre-CON conference GE betting has “hung parliament” still favourite – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 2 in General
imageThe pre-CON conference GE betting has “hung parliament” still favourite – politicalbetting.com

So as is usual it is the Tories who hold the last of the main party conferences and the party always follows immediately after Labour. I wonder whether after Johnson has made his final speech on Wednesday morning whether this chart will look different.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    UK local R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    UK deaths

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    UK R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    Age related data

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,155
    edited October 2
    edit
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,281
    @Malmesbury claims first through tenth. Cheeky bugger. ;)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,731
    Lay the favourite.

    Tory majority really should be favourite.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248

    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
    image
    image

    I bet that twit at ICL is still claiming there’s no transmission in schools…
  • isamisam Posts: 38,131
    edited October 2
    Someone on the local fb thinks the Ipsos MORI man is legit - "a simple tracker to see how far you've travelled in a fortnight"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury claims first through tenth. Cheeky bugger. ;)

    I was once tempted, for a couple of seconds, to write a script to detect new threads and auto post.

    But that would be so very rude.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248
    isam said:

    Someone on the local fb thinks the Ipsos MORI man is legit - "a simple tracker to see how far you've travelled in a fortnight"

    Why would they need to know that?

    Where is the waiver on insurance and GDPR you should be signing?

    Where’s the information on who’s paying for it?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,209
    isam said:

    Someone on the local fb thinks the Ipsos MORI man is legit - "a simple tracker to see how far you've travelled in a fortnight"

    Did they say what it was for? I did it for the DfT a few years ago.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    ydoethur said:

    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
    image
    image

    I bet that twit at ICL is still claiming there’s no transmission in schools…
    There isn't any transmission in schools. For transmission to happen, the children would have to climb on to tanks in Bagdad..... {NO CARRIER}
  • isamisam Posts: 38,131
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Someone on the local fb thinks the Ipsos MORI man is legit - "a simple tracker to see how far you've travelled in a fortnight"

    Did they say what it was for? I did it for the DfT a few years ago.
    It was something like that I think. Maybe it was legit. I wasn't rude to him, just said no thanks
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,797
    isam said:

    Someone on the local fb thinks the Ipsos MORI man is legit - "a simple tracker to see how far you've travelled in a fortnight"

    a phone app should be able to do that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248

    ydoethur said:

    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
    image
    image

    I bet that twit at ICL is still claiming there’s no transmission in schools…
    There isn't any transmission in schools. For transmission to happen, the children would have to climb on to tanks in Bagdad..... {NO CARRIER}
    One thing the pandemic has shown is how much wishful thinking scientists can indulge in when coming to conclusions.

    ISage made worst case scenarios sound like plausible minimums, those who wanted to avoid home educating their children tried to say that this weird correlation between schools being open and cases exploding was due to something else entirely.

    But it’s also shown that when they put their minds to a practical rather than theoretical problem are lot of them are also very able.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,026
    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
    image
    image

    I bet that twit at ICL is still claiming there’s no transmission in schools…
    There isn't any transmission in schools. For transmission to happen, the children would have to climb on to tanks in Bagdad..... {NO CARRIER}
    One thing the pandemic has shown is how much wishful thinking scientists can indulge in when coming to conclusions.

    ISage made worst case scenarios sound like plausible minimums, those who wanted to avoid home educating their children tried to say that this weird correlation between schools being open and cases exploding was due to something else entirely.

    But it’s also shown that when they put their minds to a practical rather than theoretical problem are lot of them are also very able.
    The problem is that many scientist and academics think they are Plato's Philosopher Kings, complete with perfect, unbiased judgement. That's what a PhD means after all...

    A relative dealt with some of the fall out of the "courts" created under Title XI in the US. He does pro-bono work for NAACP. On more than one occasion, he read up on what was happening on the plane, got off the plane straight into a meeting with the lawyers for the University. And had their lawyers, literally, head in hands, by reading from a few things he highlighted....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Lady Starmer, shurely?

    Haven’t had one of those in No. 10 in a few years. Not since Lady Douglas-Home in 1964, who apparently had more changes of name than any other once–married woman due to her husband continually changing his title.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,196
    FPT

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
    Classroom discipline enforced at bayonet point?

    (Don't suggest it to the Daily Mail!)
    I had a primary school teacher who was a Pole who had been a commando during the war. The word around the school was that he knew 14 different ways to kill without leaving a mark on the body: he had no discipline problems at all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
    image
    image

    I bet that twit at ICL is still claiming there’s no transmission in schools…
    There isn't any transmission in schools. For transmission to happen, the children would have to climb on to tanks in Bagdad..... {NO CARRIER}
    One thing the pandemic has shown is how much wishful thinking scientists can indulge in when coming to conclusions.

    ISage made worst case scenarios sound like plausible minimums, those who wanted to avoid home educating their children tried to say that this weird correlation between schools being open and cases exploding was due to something else entirely.

    But it’s also shown that when they put their minds to a practical rather than theoretical problem are lot of them are also very able.
    The problem is that many scientist and academics think they are Plato's Philosopher Kings, complete with perfect, unbiased judgement. That's what a PhD means after all...

    A relative dealt with some of the fall out of the "courts" created under Title XI in the US. He does pro-bono work for NAACP. On more than one occasion, he read up on what was happening on the plane, got off the plane straight into a meeting with the lawyers for the University. And had their lawyers, literally, head in hands, by reading from a few things he highlighted....
    Indeed yes. Whereas we all know that only those with PhDs in History awarded by Aberystwyth with a thesis on lesbianism in the 1920s are endowed with such remarkable qualities…
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,684

    UK local R

    image

    Seems only a few days ago when Orkney topped this chart with really big R.

    I guess everyone on the isles has had it now?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833

    UK local R

    ...

    Seems only a few days ago when Orkney topped this chart with really big R.

    I guess everyone on the isles has had it now?
    Small populations zoom up the R chart easily. Orkney has done this in each wave, IIRC.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,026
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
    image
    image

    I bet that twit at ICL is still claiming there’s no transmission in schools…
    There isn't any transmission in schools. For transmission to happen, the children would have to climb on to tanks in Bagdad..... {NO CARRIER}
    One thing the pandemic has shown is how much wishful thinking scientists can indulge in when coming to conclusions.

    ISage made worst case scenarios sound like plausible minimums, those who wanted to avoid home educating their children tried to say that this weird correlation between schools being open and cases exploding was due to something else entirely.

    But it’s also shown that when they put their minds to a practical rather than theoretical problem are lot of them are also very able.
    Something similar happened with the Manhattan Project. The problems of making the Bomb were difficult and messy in many ways, but from some perspectives it was easier to make progress than with science-as-normal. The territory was unexplored, so there was plenty of new stuff to discover without much digging. Problems didn't need to be solved perfectly, just well enough to do the engineering- that's remarkably liberating.

    A lot of the difficulty in science is finding the right question to ask- soluble, but not already solved. A crisis like Covid is great for that, because everything is new. And whilst the first couple of cycles of idea-test-improve or reject are messy, it's remarkable how quickly science converges on something workable.

    Yay, science.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
    image
    image

    I bet that twit at ICL is still claiming there’s no transmission in schools…
    There isn't any transmission in schools. For transmission to happen, the children would have to climb on to tanks in Bagdad..... {NO CARRIER}
    One thing the pandemic has shown is how much wishful thinking scientists can indulge in when coming to conclusions.

    ISage made worst case scenarios sound like plausible minimums, those who wanted to avoid home educating their children tried to say that this weird correlation between schools being open and cases exploding was due to something else entirely.

    But it’s also shown that when they put their minds to a practical rather than theoretical problem are lot of them are also very able.
    The problem is that many scientist and academics think they are Plato's Philosopher Kings, complete with perfect, unbiased judgement. That's what a PhD means after all...

    A relative dealt with some of the fall out of the "courts" created under Title XI in the US. He does pro-bono work for NAACP. On more than one occasion, he read up on what was happening on the plane, got off the plane straight into a meeting with the lawyers for the University. And had their lawyers, literally, head in hands, by reading from a few things he highlighted....
    Indeed yes. Whereas we all know that only those with PhDs in History awarded by Aberystwyth with a thesis on lesbianism in the 1920s are endowed with such remarkable qualities…
    He favourite was when the head of the panel/court, in an email before the session, announced to everyone that all accused people were always guilty.

    That was a 7 figure settlement, 15 minutes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,209

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Remember, the Tories won in 92 after very nasty recession.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,504
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
    image
    image

    I bet that twit at ICL is still claiming there’s no transmission in schools…
    There isn't any transmission in schools. For transmission to happen, the children would have to climb on to tanks in Bagdad..... {NO CARRIER}
    One thing the pandemic has shown is how much wishful thinking scientists can indulge in when coming to conclusions.

    ISage made worst case scenarios sound like plausible minimums, those who wanted to avoid home educating their children tried to say that this weird correlation between schools being open and cases exploding was due to something else entirely.

    But it’s also shown that when they put their minds to a practical rather than theoretical problem are lot of them are also very able.
    Oh, I have no doubt the ISage bunch put their mind to it.... It is just that what they wanted as practical was a zero Covid agenda.

    Their political agenda greatly discredited the use of data to reassure the public. I mean 100,000 cases if we opened up this summer? Utter bollocks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
    image
    image

    I bet that twit at ICL is still claiming there’s no transmission in schools…
    There isn't any transmission in schools. For transmission to happen, the children would have to climb on to tanks in Bagdad..... {NO CARRIER}
    One thing the pandemic has shown is how much wishful thinking scientists can indulge in when coming to conclusions.

    ISage made worst case scenarios sound like plausible minimums, those who wanted to avoid home educating their children tried to say that this weird correlation between schools being open and cases exploding was due to something else entirely.

    But it’s also shown that when they put their minds to a practical rather than theoretical problem are lot of them are also very able.
    Something similar happened with the Manhattan Project. The problems of making the Bomb were difficult and messy in many ways, but from some perspectives it was easier to make progress than with science-as-normal. The territory was unexplored, so there was plenty of new stuff to discover without much digging. Problems didn't need to be solved perfectly, just well enough to do the engineering- that's remarkably liberating.

    A lot of the difficulty in science is finding the right question to ask- soluble, but not already solved. A crisis like Covid is great for that, because everything is new. And whilst the first couple of cycles of idea-test-improve or reject are messy, it's remarkable how quickly science converges on something workable.

    Yay, science.
    Though the engineers on the Manhattan Project found some of the scientists insufferable when it came to productionisation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,833

    FPT

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
    Classroom discipline enforced at bayonet point?

    (Don't suggest it to the Daily Mail!)
    I had a primary school teacher who was a Pole who had been a commando during the war. The word around the school was that he knew 14 different ways to kill without leaving a mark on the body: he had no discipline problems at all.
    My father-in-law was a senior drill instructor in a South American army. Went into teaching... Never raised his voice - could get a hall full of children to shut up, sit down and pay attention with a slight clearing of the throat.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,155
    edited October 2

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,102
    edited October 2
    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,490
    Wanna get rich? Forget Political Betting, swap your mask for a snorkel and get diving.

    Amateur divers find ‘perfectly preserved’ Roman treasure in Spain
    ‘It’s incredible, it’s every child’s dream,’ says Luis Lens about the 53 gold coins with legible inscriptions that date back to the 4th and 5th centuries, and illustrate the empire’s decline


    https://english.elpais.com/usa/2021-09-24/amateur-divers-find-perfectly-preserved-roman-treasure-in-spain.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,887
    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,026

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
    For Labour to get a majority without Scotland, they have to do (roughly) as well in E+W as they did in 1997. That's very unlikely. It would require the economy to go really pearshaped in a way that none of us can want to see. But a path that goes inflation rises - interest rates climb - recent homebuyers are stuffed certainly exists.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,496
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,490
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Yeah, I took my cue from AE-P the other day and liquidated half of my portfolio, and though it has fallen since the fall is less than half as much as it would have been without the sale.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,026
    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    Question- because this isn't something I know much about, but the implications bother me...

    Isn't the key thing about interest rates the difference between interest and inflation? Roughly interest > inflation leads to contraction, interest < inflation leads to expansion.

    In which case, doesn't a move from minimal inflation to some inflation mean that interest rates have to go up to keep up? If they don't, isn't there a positive feedback loop leading to higher inflation down the line?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,731
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    It may be tough but it's exactly what the economy needs (exc the bear market).

    People need to start thinking about housing as a cost and not an asset. People don't celebrate food costs going up so why housing costs? Declining prices are needed for affordability ... And higher inflation would help avoid negative equity.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,256

    FPT

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
    Classroom discipline enforced at bayonet point?

    (Don't suggest it to the Daily Mail!)
    I had a primary school teacher who was a Pole who had been a commando during the war. The word around the school was that he knew 14 different ways to kill without leaving a mark on the body: he had no discipline problems at all.
    We had a teacher who picked on one of the kids, whose dad came to the school to have it out with him. Anyway, the teacher refused to leave the safety of the staffroom and after a while, dad gave up and went home. The teacher got a new job so did not return after the Easter holidays.

    We innocent boys liked to think it was because someone tipped him the wink that dad ran the town's protection racket, and not because they ever did meet.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,155

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    It may be tough but it's exactly what the economy needs (exc the bear market).

    People need to start thinking about housing as a cost and not an asset. People don't celebrate food costs going up so why housing costs? Declining prices are needed for affordability ... And higher inflation would help avoid negative equity.
    I agree that a massive correction is necessary, but also think that the political consequences of, say, normal interest rates, house prices in SE/London that bore relation to the lives of the middling sort, and inflation would be catastrophic for whoever happened to be holding the baby when the music stops.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,155
    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    If you are right about equities, why is the FTSE 100 at 7027 when it hit 6930 22 years ago?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,731
    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    It may be tough but it's exactly what the economy needs (exc the bear market).

    People need to start thinking about housing as a cost and not an asset. People don't celebrate food costs going up so why housing costs? Declining prices are needed for affordability ... And higher inflation would help avoid negative equity.
    I agree that a massive correction is necessary, but also think that the political consequences of, say, normal interest rates, house prices in SE/London that bore relation to the lives of the middling sort, and inflation would be catastrophic for whoever happened to be holding the baby when the music stops.

    Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

    Not having a correction is going to be utterly catastrophic in the long term too.

    While the government is popular and the opposition isn't, is precisely the time to get through much needed corrections. If they don't, then what's the point in them?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,026

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    It may be tough but it's exactly what the economy needs (exc the bear market).

    People need to start thinking about housing as a cost and not an asset. People don't celebrate food costs going up so why housing costs? Declining prices are needed for affordability ... And higher inflation would help avoid negative equity.
    It may well be the right thing to do, and housing costs probably have more to do with why Brits feel poor than a lot of the other factors bandied about.

    We'd be in a much better place had the wealth tied up by the Thatcher and Blair house price booms been used on something, anything, more productive.

    But nobody, and I mean nobody knows how to get re-elected if house prices aren't rising.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,418

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Age related data scaled to 100K

    image
    image
    image

    I bet that twit at ICL is still claiming there’s no transmission in schools…
    There isn't any transmission in schools. For transmission to happen, the children would have to climb on to tanks in Bagdad..... {NO CARRIER}
    One thing the pandemic has shown is how much wishful thinking scientists can indulge in when coming to conclusions.

    ISage made worst case scenarios sound like plausible minimums, those who wanted to avoid home educating their children tried to say that this weird correlation between schools being open and cases exploding was due to something else entirely.

    But it’s also shown that when they put their minds to a practical rather than theoretical problem are lot of them are also very able.
    The problem is that many scientist and academics think they are Plato's Philosopher Kings, complete with perfect, unbiased judgement. That's what a PhD means after all...

    A relative dealt with some of the fall out of the "courts" created under Title XI in the US. He does pro-bono work for NAACP. On more than one occasion, he read up on what was happening on the plane, got off the plane straight into a meeting with the lawyers for the University. And had their lawyers, literally, head in hands, by reading from a few things he highlighted....
    Why "courts" as opposed to courts?

    Or are you referring to the Community Relations Service created under Title X of the 1964 Civil Rights Act?

    Initially under the US Commerce Dept, but currently and for most of its existence under Dept of Justice, according to wiki's quoting of the law the function of CRS is to aid in resolving "community conflicts and tensions arising from differences of race, color, national origin, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion and disability."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,248

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    It may be tough but it's exactly what the economy needs (exc the bear market).

    People need to start thinking about housing as a cost and not an asset. People don't celebrate food costs going up so why housing costs? Declining prices are needed for affordability ... And higher inflation would help avoid negative equity.
    I agree that a massive correction is necessary, but also think that the political consequences of, say, normal interest rates, house prices in SE/London that bore relation to the lives of the middling sort, and inflation would be catastrophic for whoever happened to be holding the baby when the music stops.

    Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

    Not having a correction is going to be utterly catastrophic in the long term too.

    While the government is popular and the opposition isn't, is precisely the time to get through much needed corrections. If they don't, then what's the point in them?
    I increasingly find myself thinking the answer is ‘fuck all.’
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 5,982

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    Question- because this isn't something I know much about, but the implications bother me...

    Isn't the key thing about interest rates the difference between interest and inflation? Roughly interest > inflation leads to contraction, interest < inflation leads to expansion.

    In which case, doesn't a move from minimal inflation to some inflation mean that interest rates have to go up to keep up? If they don't, isn't there a positive feedback loop leading to higher inflation down the line?
    Yes. It's known as the Taylor principle, after the economist John Taylor. Interest rates should go up more than one-for-one with inflation, so that real rates go up, if the central bank wants to tighten monetary policy to control inflation.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 657
    algarkirk said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    If you are right about equities, why is the FTSE 100 at 7027 when it hit 6930 22 years ago?

    Conditions have changed somewhat since 1999. Exhibit A: the Great Financial Crisis happened. Exhibit B: massive state, business and consumer indebtedness, and thus a persistent low interest rate environment.

    Nothing about transitory labour shortages in some sectors and a small spike in wage inflation is going to alter the fundamentals.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,155

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
    The point of the Black Swan concept is that you can't, in practical terms, foresee what sort of event it is. If you can it is a white swan. The black swan challenges the hitherto unchallenged statement that 'All swans are white'.

    Though conceptual Black Swans abound. Eg. The laws of nature change next Tuesday so that H2O is characteristically dark green and poisonous to humans; Dropped stones generally fly upwards; red things appear yellow on Fridays.

    There are enough white swans to concern Boris. Inflation + high interest rates might finish him without further help.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    Question- because this isn't something I know much about, but the implications bother me...

    Isn't the key thing about interest rates the difference between interest and inflation? Roughly interest > inflation leads to contraction, interest < inflation leads to expansion.

    In which case, doesn't a move from minimal inflation to some inflation mean that interest rates have to go up to keep up? If they don't, isn't there a positive feedback loop leading to higher inflation down the line?
    Yes. It's known as the Taylor principle, after the economist John Taylor. Interest rates should go up more than one-for-one with inflation, so that real rates go up, if the central bank wants to tighten monetary policy to control inflation.
    The caveats for todays economy would be if most of your competitors dont raise interest rates either it is less of an issue, and the impact of QE as an attempt to push down interest rates and inflation (with the helpful for the few side effect of making the elite richer at warp speed).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,475
    Lab maj should not be on 15%. 5% would be generous IMO.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,026

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    Question- because this isn't something I know much about, but the implications bother me...

    Isn't the key thing about interest rates the difference between interest and inflation? Roughly interest > inflation leads to contraction, interest < inflation leads to expansion.

    In which case, doesn't a move from minimal inflation to some inflation mean that interest rates have to go up to keep up? If they don't, isn't there a positive feedback loop leading to higher inflation down the line?
    Yes. It's known as the Taylor principle, after the economist John Taylor. Interest rates should go up more than one-for-one with inflation, so that real rates go up, if the central bank wants to tighten monetary policy to control inflation.
    Ta. So why are so many people optimistic that this bit of inflation will pass through as a blip and then dissipate?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,475
    Many thanks to Malmesbury for continuing to post the latest C19 data.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597
    algarkirk said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    If you are right about equities, why is the FTSE 100 at 7027 when it hit 6930 22 years ago?

    Largely down to the lack of IT companies within the FTSE. If just Apple had been in the FTSE for that time the index would have approximately doubled.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,131
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
    The point of the Black Swan concept is that you can't, in practical terms, foresee what sort of event it is. If you can it is a white swan. The black swan challenges the hitherto unchallenged statement that 'All swans are white'.

    Though conceptual Black Swans abound. Eg. The laws of nature change next Tuesday so that H2O is characteristically dark green and poisonous to humans; Dropped stones generally fly upwards; red things appear yellow on Fridays.

    There are enough white swans to concern Boris. Inflation + high interest rates might finish him without further help.

    Isn't the pandemic a black swan?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,155

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    Question- because this isn't something I know much about, but the implications bother me...

    Isn't the key thing about interest rates the difference between interest and inflation? Roughly interest > inflation leads to contraction, interest < inflation leads to expansion.

    In which case, doesn't a move from minimal inflation to some inflation mean that interest rates have to go up to keep up? If they don't, isn't there a positive feedback loop leading to higher inflation down the line?
    Yes. It's known as the Taylor principle, after the economist John Taylor. Interest rates should go up more than one-for-one with inflation, so that real rates go up, if the central bank wants to tighten monetary policy to control inflation.
    The caveats for todays economy would be if most of your competitors dont raise interest rates either it is less of an issue, and the impact of QE as an attempt to push down interest rates and inflation (with the helpful for the few side effect of making the elite richer at warp speed).
    The entire policy of UK and much of the west since 2008 has been to shift to towards nil interest rates so that governments can borrow without limit to cope with the recurring crises. This temporary measure has never ended. There is no foreseeable scenario in which that could end with any rapidity without political and economic disaster. High interest rates would destroy much of the artificial property bazaar, and bankrupt governments. Inflation destroys governments and much else.

    As the old 'sound money' Tories (remember those?) used to say: "Inflation is theft".

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,836

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.

    Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 5,982

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    Question- because this isn't something I know much about, but the implications bother me...

    Isn't the key thing about interest rates the difference between interest and inflation? Roughly interest > inflation leads to contraction, interest < inflation leads to expansion.

    In which case, doesn't a move from minimal inflation to some inflation mean that interest rates have to go up to keep up? If they don't, isn't there a positive feedback loop leading to higher inflation down the line?
    Yes. It's known as the Taylor principle, after the economist John Taylor. Interest rates should go up more than one-for-one with inflation, so that real rates go up, if the central bank wants to tighten monetary policy to control inflation.
    Ta. So why are so many people optimistic that this bit of inflation will pass through as a blip and then dissipate?
    Because a lot of it is coming through energy prices, which are typically volatile and likely to revert by the time monetary policy bites. Plus there are base effects and distortions from VAT changes. But I suspect some of this will prove quite persistent, and the BOE is coming to a similar conclusion, hence talking up the likelihood of rate hikes sooner rather than later.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,290

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    Question- because this isn't something I know much about, but the implications bother me...

    Isn't the key thing about interest rates the difference between interest and inflation? Roughly interest > inflation leads to contraction, interest < inflation leads to expansion.

    In which case, doesn't a move from minimal inflation to some inflation mean that interest rates have to go up to keep up? If they don't, isn't there a positive feedback loop leading to higher inflation down the line?
    Yes. It's known as the Taylor principle, after the economist John Taylor. Interest rates should go up more than one-for-one with inflation, so that real rates go up, if the central bank wants to tighten monetary policy to control inflation.
    We’re currently operating on the blip principle.
    Where both government and BofE assure us inflation’s just a blip.

    I’m unconvinced.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,713

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    It may be tough but it's exactly what the economy needs (exc the bear market).

    People need to start thinking about housing as a cost and not an asset. People don't celebrate food costs going up so why housing costs? Declining prices are needed for affordability ... And higher inflation would help avoid negative equity.
    I agree that a massive correction is necessary, but also think that the political consequences of, say, normal interest rates, house prices in SE/London that bore relation to the lives of the middling sort, and inflation would be catastrophic for whoever happened to be holding the baby when the music stops.

    Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

    Not having a correction is going to be utterly catastrophic in the long term too.

    While the government is popular and the opposition isn't, is precisely the time to get through much needed corrections. If they don't, then what's the point in them?
    How does a correction help if its cause it's anything other than expanding supply? Like saying the Titanic should have done more to make lifeboat places more *affordable.*
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,981

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    Question- because this isn't something I know much about, but the implications bother me...

    Isn't the key thing about interest rates the difference between interest and inflation? Roughly interest > inflation leads to contraction, interest < inflation leads to expansion.

    In which case, doesn't a move from minimal inflation to some inflation mean that interest rates have to go up to keep up? If they don't, isn't there a positive feedback loop leading to higher inflation down the line?
    Yes. It's known as the Taylor principle, after the economist John Taylor. Interest rates should go up more than one-for-one with inflation, so that real rates go up, if the central bank wants to tighten monetary policy to control inflation.
    Ta. So why are so many people optimistic that this bit of inflation will pass through as a blip and then dissipate?
    Because a lot of it is coming through energy prices, which are typically volatile and likely to revert by the time monetary policy bites. Plus there are base effects and distortions from VAT changes. But I suspect some of this will prove quite persistent, and the BOE is coming to a similar conclusion, hence talking up the likelihood of rate hikes sooner rather than later.
    True, although it's worth pointing out that we've had many false alarms about rising rates over the last 15 years.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 5,982
    Fishing said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    Question- because this isn't something I know much about, but the implications bother me...

    Isn't the key thing about interest rates the difference between interest and inflation? Roughly interest > inflation leads to contraction, interest < inflation leads to expansion.

    In which case, doesn't a move from minimal inflation to some inflation mean that interest rates have to go up to keep up? If they don't, isn't there a positive feedback loop leading to higher inflation down the line?
    Yes. It's known as the Taylor principle, after the economist John Taylor. Interest rates should go up more than one-for-one with inflation, so that real rates go up, if the central bank wants to tighten monetary policy to control inflation.
    Ta. So why are so many people optimistic that this bit of inflation will pass through as a blip and then dissipate?
    Because a lot of it is coming through energy prices, which are typically volatile and likely to revert by the time monetary policy bites. Plus there are base effects and distortions from VAT changes. But I suspect some of this will prove quite persistent, and the BOE is coming to a similar conclusion, hence talking up the likelihood of rate hikes sooner rather than later.
    True, although it's worth pointing out that we've had many false alarms about rising rates over the last 15 years.
    FWIW I don't think they will go until May. I think the data on the broader economic outlook will probably be too shitty for them to go in Feb or (even less likely) this year. But they are certainly talking a hawkish talk.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597
    Scott_xP said:

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.

    Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
    To lose their majority he has to be blamed specifically by leave Tory voters though. Probably 15-25% of them. We are a long way from that, although white van man and Ford Mondeo man in the m25 marginals might be starting to waver.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,155
    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
    The point of the Black Swan concept is that you can't, in practical terms, foresee what sort of event it is. If you can it is a white swan. The black swan challenges the hitherto unchallenged statement that 'All swans are white'.

    Though conceptual Black Swans abound. Eg. The laws of nature change next Tuesday so that H2O is characteristically dark green and poisonous to humans; Dropped stones generally fly upwards; red things appear yellow on Fridays.

    There are enough white swans to concern Boris. Inflation + high interest rates might finish him without further help.

    Isn't the pandemic a black swan?
    Arguable. I would say yes. It is possible to say that sane people have been foreseeing one for ages. Which makes it a white swan.

    Candidates for Black Swan? Twin Towers. The rise of Islamism. Then specific series of events leading to WW1. Banking crisis of 2008. Mrs Thatcher. May 1940. The Holocaust.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597

    Scott_xP said:

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.

    Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
    Brexiteers taking some responsibility really would be a Black Swan.
    We are in a world where it is now relatively easy to adopt even QAnon style beliefs and find a community around that you can engage with.

    It is trivially easy for Brexiteers to create and sustain a fantasy version of reality that is favourable to their preconceptions in a way that was not true pre-internet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,504

    FPT

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
    Classroom discipline enforced at bayonet point?

    (Don't suggest it to the Daily Mail!)
    I had a primary school teacher who was a Pole who had been a commando during the war. The word around the school was that he knew 14 different ways to kill without leaving a mark on the body: he had no discipline problems at all.
    And that was just with the other teachers!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,155

    Scott_xP said:

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.

    Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
    Brexiteers taking some responsibility really would be a Black Swan.
    The Brexit folk are running the government. That is what 'taking some responsibility' is in a liberal democracy. They become directly accountable for this responsibility sometime before summer 2024.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,155

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    It may be tough but it's exactly what the economy needs (exc the bear market).

    People need to start thinking about housing as a cost and not an asset. People don't celebrate food costs going up so why housing costs? Declining prices are needed for affordability ... And higher inflation would help avoid negative equity.
    I agree that a massive correction is necessary, but also think that the political consequences of, say, normal interest rates, house prices in SE/London that bore relation to the lives of the middling sort, and inflation would be catastrophic for whoever happened to be holding the baby when the music stops.

    Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

    Not having a correction is going to be utterly catastrophic in the long term too.

    While the government is popular and the opposition isn't, is precisely the time to get through much needed corrections. If they don't, then what's the point in them?
    All true especially the first bit. And politics is still politics.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,227
    A small amount of inflation, maybe 3%, combined with a rise to maybe 1% in interest rates and a drop of maybe 10% in house prices in the South, will be generally fine for the economy as it recovers from the pandemic.

    The danger is that any of the above statistics spiral out of control. Despite everything that’s happened since 1994, economically things have generally been stable or rising, with the exception of the sharp recession in 2009 and the pandemic last year. Many people have never known real volatility in the economic data.

    Going into the winter, we see potentially major issues around energy supplies and global logistics, either of which could be the spark that lights the fire.

    Already the opinion columnists are lining up to tell the PM to ditch the “Green Crap”, as it becomes more clear that it means bigger household bills and more volatile supply.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,713

    FPT

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
    Classroom discipline enforced at bayonet point?

    (Don't suggest it to the Daily Mail!)
    I had a primary school teacher who was a Pole who had been a commando during the war. The word around the school was that he knew 14 different ways to kill without leaving a mark on the body: he had no discipline problems at all.
    And that was just with the other teachers!
    Why would a commando be fussed about leaving marks on bodies?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,074
    On topic (remarkably).

    Given that Parliamentary speakers are getting stroppy about the Commons being told about policy first, will that potentially impose any limitations on announcements at the Tory Conference?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,227
    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.
    The point of the Black Swan concept is that you can't, in practical terms, foresee what sort of event it is. If you can it is a white swan. The black swan challenges the hitherto unchallenged statement that 'All swans are white'.

    Though conceptual Black Swans abound. Eg. The laws of nature change next Tuesday so that H2O is characteristically dark green and poisonous to humans; Dropped stones generally fly upwards; red things appear yellow on Fridays.

    There are enough white swans to concern Boris. Inflation + high interest rates might finish him without further help.

    Isn't the pandemic a black swan?
    Arguable. I would say yes. It is possible to say that sane people have been foreseeing one for ages. Which makes it a white swan.

    Candidates for Black Swan? Twin Towers. The rise of Islamism. Then specific series of events leading to WW1. Banking crisis of 2008. Mrs Thatcher. May 1940. The Holocaust.

    Global pandemic.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597
    MattW said:

    On topic (remarkably).

    Given that Parliamentary speakers are getting stroppy about the Commons being told about policy first, will that potentially impose any limitations on announcements at the Tory Conference?

    No. Zero chance Boris gives a shit if the speakers get stroppy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,836
    MattW said:

    On topic (remarkably).

    Given that Parliamentary speakers are getting stroppy about the Commons being told about policy first, will that potentially impose any limitations on announcements at the Tory Conference?

    No
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,418
    Seattle Times ($) - ‘Bad cop’: Seattle’s Pramila Jayapal emerges as key power player in Biden negotiations

    With trillions of dollars and potentially all of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda on the line, Democratic U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal stared down her own party’s leadership. She didn’t blink.

    All day Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., had said the House would vote that day on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that represents a small portion of Biden’s agenda.

    And all day, Jayapal had said that she, and most of the 96-member Congressional Progressive Caucus that she leads, would not vote for the infrastructure bill unless it was paired with the rest of Biden’s agenda — a vast $3.5 trillion package to raise taxes on the wealthy, make community college free, provide child care and paid family leave, expand Medicare and invest in programs to combat climate change.

    Thursday evening, one of the few moderate Democrats skeptical of the bigger package told CNN he was “1,000 percent” certain the infrastructure bill would pass that night. Moments later, Jayapal said she was certain there would be no vote and if there was, it wouldn’t pass.

    Jayapal was right. Realizing she didn’t have the votes, Pelosi never brought the bill up for a vote Thursday night.

    Jayapal, the third-term congresswoman from West Seattle, has become one of the key negotiators as Democrats, with razor-thin majorities in the House and the Senate, try to pass the ambitious health care, child care, education and climate proposals that Biden ran on and are critical to the success of his presidency.

    Biden’s agenda is split into those two bills and Jayapal, and the newly energized and organized progressive wing of the party, is trying to make sure that the smaller one doesn’t pass without the larger one. . . .

    The Senate has passed the physical infrastructure package, boosting spending for roads, transit and broadband internet. It was negotiated, in part, by two centrist Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, of Arizona.

    But Manchin and Sinema have balked at the larger bill. And, with Democrats having only a one-vote majority in the Senate, and no hopes of getting even a single Republican vote for the larger package, they can’t afford to lose either senator.

    Meanwhile, Jayapal and her progressive caucus have used the infrastructure bill as leverage. Ultimately, they’ll support it, but they are refusing to vote for it until Manchin and Sinema (and the rest of the Senate) sign on to some form of the climate and social programs package. . . .

    “Jayapal is providing a master class these last few weeks in how to wield power,” wrote Brian Fallon, director of the progressive group Demand Justice . . . .

    “It allowed the Biden administration to sort of stand back,” he said. “They let Jayapal be the bad cop here, I think there’s sort of a wink-wink relationship in her making these demands. . . " . . . .
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,869

    FPT

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
    Classroom discipline enforced at bayonet point?

    (Don't suggest it to the Daily Mail!)
    I had a primary school teacher who was a Pole who had been a commando during the war. The word around the school was that he knew 14 different ways to kill without leaving a mark on the body: he had no discipline problems at all.
    My father-in-law was a senior drill instructor in a South American army. Went into teaching... Never raised his voice - could get a hall full of children to shut up, sit down and pay attention with a slight clearing of the throat.
    Isn't that similar to Bob Ross's story? He was in the military and had to shout a lot, and when he got out, he never wanted to shout again. Hence he spoke very softly.

    I knew a guy in Derbyshire - a builder - who was built like a brick outhouse. He was a nice bloke, but he just looked menacing. It was therefore funny when he'd say in a relatively high pitched voice: "Aye up, flower, fancy a pint?"
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,155
    Sandpit said:

    A small amount of inflation, maybe 3%, combined with a rise to maybe 1% in interest rates and a drop of maybe 10% in house prices in the South, will be generally fine for the economy as it recovers from the pandemic.

    The danger is that any of the above statistics spiral out of control. Despite everything that’s happened since 1994, economically things have generally been stable or rising, with the exception of the sharp recession in 2009 and the pandemic last year. Many people have never known real volatility in the economic data.

    Going into the winter, we see potentially major issues around energy supplies and global logistics, either of which could be the spark that lights the fire.

    Already the opinion columnists are lining up to tell the PM to ditch the “Green Crap”, as it becomes more clear that it means bigger household bills and more volatile supply.

    A tricky issue over the green stuff is the slightly uneasy and unconscious alliance of older realists (I am one) and younger idealists (Greta Thunberg and friends, with whom I don't always agree but massively admire).

    Both groups, very quietly, are becoming aware that it is actually both too late and politically impossible to avert a cataclysm if the science is correct. Neither group has decided what to do about it. When they do it will be very interesting.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,026

    Scott_xP said:

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.

    Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
    To lose their majority he has to be blamed specifically by leave Tory voters though. Probably 15-25% of them. We are a long way from that, although white van man and Ford Mondeo man in the m25 marginals might be starting to waver.
    Midpoint of voting right now would probably be "2016 was a mistake, but we have to go through with this and right now Brexit is being badly managed."

    So will voters go for a party who believe in Brexit but aren't doing a good job with it? Or a party that, even now, really doesn't believe?

    I can see arguments against each side.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,942
    MattW said:

    On topic (remarkably).

    Given that Parliamentary speakers are getting stroppy about the Commons being told about policy first, will that potentially impose any limitations on announcements at the Tory Conference?

    I can’t see that it can in truth. The stuff from conference is about future directions, not direct policy applying now. The specific policies, bills etc will still need announcing in the house.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,227
    MattW said:

    On topic (remarkably).

    Given that Parliamentary speakers are getting stroppy about the Commons being told about policy first, will that potentially impose any limitations on announcements at the Tory Conference?

    Expect more general policy announcements and ambitions from Conference, rather than the specific details which might appear in the Budget or in other legislation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,474
    @MailOnline
    Global supply chain on the brink of collapse as cargo ships face 4-WEEK wait at US ports


    https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1444348976032006144
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 565
    Just imagine if another parties leader had made Johnson’s comments on cancer and life expectancy .
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,196
    IshmaelZ said:

    FPT

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
    Classroom discipline enforced at bayonet point?

    (Don't suggest it to the Daily Mail!)
    I had a primary school teacher who was a Pole who had been a commando during the war. The word around the school was that he knew 14 different ways to kill without leaving a mark on the body: he had no discipline problems at all.
    And that was just with the other teachers!
    Why would a commando be fussed about leaving marks on bodies?
    Commandos probably wouldn’t; teachers do.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,053

    @MailOnline
    Global supply chain on the brink of collapse as cargo ships face 4-WEEK wait at US ports


    https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1444348976032006144

    Bloody Brexit
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,227

    @MailOnline
    Global supply chain on the brink of collapse as cargo ships face 4-WEEK wait at US ports


    https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1444348976032006144

    That bloody stuck ship in the Suez, has a lot to answer for!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,597

    Scott_xP said:

    It's difficult to see what sort of black-swan event could possibly challenge the Boris hegemony. Maybe Boris's pledging to rejoin the EU might do it, but I can't think of anything else.

    Brexit being blamed for some of the problems caused by Brexit will suffice
    To lose their majority he has to be blamed specifically by leave Tory voters though. Probably 15-25% of them. We are a long way from that, although white van man and Ford Mondeo man in the m25 marginals might be starting to waver.
    Midpoint of voting right now would probably be "2016 was a mistake, but we have to go through with this and right now Brexit is being badly managed."

    So will voters go for a party who believe in Brexit but aren't doing a good job with it? Or a party that, even now, really doesn't believe?

    I can see arguments against each side.
    With FPTP I am not convinced the midpoint view is that relevant. One group that really matter are Tory 2019 switchers who presumably were quite committed to Brexit. They still are and if they do turn against Brexit then it will be well after the median view changes.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,595
    I'm no economist, but to me the complacency these days is rather reminiscent of Brown's "end to boom and bust" mantra. I wouldn't be at all surprised if things go pear-shaped.

    The combination of ultra-low interest rates (and therefore very low savings rates), low but rising inflation, absurd house prices in parts of the country, rapidly increasing wages in some sectors, rapidly increasing prices for some essentials, and huge, huge borrowing by the government just feels to me like an explosive cocktail that is not sustainable.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,053
    edited October 2

    @MailOnline
    Global supply chain on the brink of collapse as cargo ships face 4-WEEK wait at US ports


    https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1444348976032006144

    Well consumers want ever cheaper product from low cost sources. Tough. Reap,what you sow.

    Onshoring is going to accelerate.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,887

    algarkirk said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Really, this is a bet on how well things will go for the UK over the next couple of years.

    If, in 2023, things are going well and the problems have dissipated, the government will win.

    If things are a bit rubbish, Westminster is constantly firefighting and we're fed up with more tax and somewhat shabbier public services, the opposition has a decent opportunity.

    If things go seriously wrong, and interest rates rise enough to really hit house prices then Mrs Starmer can start discussing the soft furnishings in No 10 immediately.

    And this has relatively little to do with the virtues and vices of the government- they are bobbing around on a choppy sea like everyone else. That's why "Take Back Control" is so potent a slogan- we fear powerlessness in a scary world. It's also why it's so dishonest- we are all more at the mercy of the fates than we want to admit.

    Put like that 45:45:10 might be about right. Roughly equal chances of success and moderate failure from here, with a small risk of utter calamity.

    Broadly agree that Tory majority and not Tory majority are about equal. The chance of a Labour majority is smaller than 10% - more like 5% as it requires a Black Swan event.

    The things which may gives rise to reconsidering these numbers is the White Swan which is beginning to get talked about and is paddling furiously under the surface. Inflation. Interest rates. Mortgages. Foreclosures. Negative equity. London. South East. Unsellable Million pound one bed flats.

    A tiny numerical rise in interest rates will only slightly benefit older voters who vote Tory anyway, but because artificially low interest rates have led to artificially high asset prices especially in London and SE a catastrophe is completely foreseeable.

    Higher inflation and interest rates with declining House prices would be tough for the government.

    A major bear market in equities too. I can see some ominous signs out there in the markets.
    Which is why interest rates will not go higher despite higher inflation (which isn’t that high by historic standards). And if cheap-ish money continues, equities will continue to be supported as rates of return elsewhere will be low
    If you are right about equities, why is the FTSE 100 at 7027 when it hit 6930 22 years ago?

    Largely down to the lack of IT companies within the FTSE. If just Apple had been in the FTSE for that time the index would have approximately doubled.
    Yes, that is part of it. The other part is that FTSE 100 companies have paid out a lot of dividends over those 22 years. There is a need to look at Total Return.

    Nonetheless, other equity markets in the world, even the FTSE 250 to a degree, have increased greatly over the last few years in a way that is difficult to sustain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915

    Seattle Times ($) - ‘Bad cop’: Seattle’s Pramila Jayapal emerges as key power player in Biden negotiations

    With trillions of dollars and potentially all of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda on the line, Democratic U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal stared down her own party’s leadership. She didn’t blink.

    All day Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., had said the House would vote that day on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that represents a small portion of Biden’s agenda.

    And all day, Jayapal had said that she, and most of the 96-member Congressional Progressive Caucus that she leads, would not vote for the infrastructure bill unless it was paired with the rest of Biden’s agenda — a vast $3.5 trillion package to raise taxes on the wealthy, make community college free, provide child care and paid family leave, expand Medicare and invest in programs to combat climate change.

    Thursday evening, one of the few moderate Democrats skeptical of the bigger package told CNN he was “1,000 percent” certain the infrastructure bill would pass that night. Moments later, Jayapal said she was certain there would be no vote and if there was, it wouldn’t pass.

    Jayapal was right. Realizing she didn’t have the votes, Pelosi never brought the bill up for a vote Thursday night.

    Jayapal, the third-term congresswoman from West Seattle, has become one of the key negotiators as Democrats, with razor-thin majorities in the House and the Senate, try to pass the ambitious health care, child care, education and climate proposals that Biden ran on and are critical to the success of his presidency.

    Biden’s agenda is split into those two bills and Jayapal, and the newly energized and organized progressive wing of the party, is trying to make sure that the smaller one doesn’t pass without the larger one. . . .

    The Senate has passed the physical infrastructure package, boosting spending for roads, transit and broadband internet. It was negotiated, in part, by two centrist Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, of Arizona.

    But Manchin and Sinema have balked at the larger bill. And, with Democrats having only a one-vote majority in the Senate, and no hopes of getting even a single Republican vote for the larger package, they can’t afford to lose either senator.

    Meanwhile, Jayapal and her progressive caucus have used the infrastructure bill as leverage. Ultimately, they’ll support it, but they are refusing to vote for it until Manchin and Sinema (and the rest of the Senate) sign on to some form of the climate and social programs package. . . .

    “Jayapal is providing a master class these last few weeks in how to wield power,” wrote Brian Fallon, director of the progressive group Demand Justice . . . .

    “It allowed the Biden administration to sort of stand back,” he said. “They let Jayapal be the bad cop here, I think there’s sort of a wink-wink relationship in her making these demands. . . " . . . .

    Sounds like classic party within a party action. Whatever happened to the Tea Party? I guess they are now just the whole party?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,196

    I'm no economist, but to me the complacency these days is rather reminiscent of Brown's "end to boom and bust" mantra. I wouldn't be at all surprised if things go pear-shaped.

    The combination of ultra-low interest rates (and therefore very low savings rates), low but rising inflation, absurd house prices in parts of the country, rapidly increasing wages in some sectors, rapidly increasing prices for some essentials, and huge, huge borrowing by the government just feels to me like an explosive cocktail that is not sustainable.

    One of my savings accounts has an interest rate of 0.01%. I wonder why I bother.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,915

    FPT

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brexit disaster is going to be the story that consumes the rest of this year.

    Only to FBPE supporters

    It is part of a much wider story and Brexit is not responsible for 53 container ships holed up in the US, the record worldwide hikes in energy costs, and supply issues across the globe
    Doesn't mean it's not making it even worse. Which it is.
    The issue will be highlighted at the conservative conference as one of those wanting to use cheap foreign labourc (FBPE) supporters and HMG that is seeking increased wages across the sectors and restricting immigration to limited visa quotas

    It will be interesting to see who wins the argument
    A party supposedly of big business seeking to increase "wages across the sectors"? All of them? Making the pensioners poorer? That's two whacking contradictions right there.

    It will be interesting to see how the government applies wage increases in sectors like health and social care where staffing issues are as bad as HGV logistics.

    Mrs Foxy should be getting a decent payrise...
    I certainly won’t be.

    Which may explain why two of my colleagues have just quit.
    Indeed, and I think police got nothing this year too.

    How well did the armed forces do? They seem to be picking up the slack. Tommy Atkins the substitute teacher coming this way soon...
    Classroom discipline enforced at bayonet point?

    (Don't suggest it to the Daily Mail!)
    I had a primary school teacher who was a Pole who had been a commando during the war. The word around the school was that he knew 14 different ways to kill without leaving a mark on the body: he had no discipline problems at all.
    My father-in-law was a senior drill instructor in a South American army. Went into teaching... Never raised his voice - could get a hall full of children to shut up, sit down and pay attention with a slight clearing of the throat.
    Doesn't even take that kind of background. We certainly had a few shouters among teachers, but there were also ones who we had no idea of their background who never needed to raise their voice and yet no one ever misbehaved in their class.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,887
    nico679 said:

    Just imagine if another parties leader had made Johnson’s comments on cancer and life expectancy .

    Yes, quite remarkable.

    It remains to be seen what wage growth actually happens over a longer timescale, and how evenly distributed demographically and geographically.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,074
    kle4 said:

    Seattle Times ($) - ‘Bad cop’: Seattle’s Pramila Jayapal emerges as key power player in Biden negotiations

    With trillions of dollars and potentially all of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda on the line, Democratic U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal stared down her own party’s leadership. She didn’t blink.

    All day Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., had said the House would vote that day on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that represents a small portion of Biden’s agenda.

    And all day, Jayapal had said that she, and most of the 96-member Congressional Progressive Caucus that she leads, would not vote for the infrastructure bill unless it was paired with the rest of Biden’s agenda — a vast $3.5 trillion package to raise taxes on the wealthy, make community college free, provide child care and paid family leave, expand Medicare and invest in programs to combat climate change.

    Thursday evening, one of the few moderate Democrats skeptical of the bigger package told CNN he was “1,000 percent” certain the infrastructure bill would pass that night. Moments later, Jayapal said she was certain there would be no vote and if there was, it wouldn’t pass.

    Jayapal was right. Realizing she didn’t have the votes, Pelosi never brought the bill up for a vote Thursday night.

    Jayapal, the third-term congresswoman from West Seattle, has become one of the key negotiators as Democrats, with razor-thin majorities in the House and the Senate, try to pass the ambitious health care, child care, education and climate proposals that Biden ran on and are critical to the success of his presidency.

    Biden’s agenda is split into those two bills and Jayapal, and the newly energized and organized progressive wing of the party, is trying to make sure that the smaller one doesn’t pass without the larger one. . . .

    The Senate has passed the physical infrastructure package, boosting spending for roads, transit and broadband internet. It was negotiated, in part, by two centrist Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, of Arizona.

    But Manchin and Sinema have balked at the larger bill. And, with Democrats having only a one-vote majority in the Senate, and no hopes of getting even a single Republican vote for the larger package, they can’t afford to lose either senator.

    Meanwhile, Jayapal and her progressive caucus have used the infrastructure bill as leverage. Ultimately, they’ll support it, but they are refusing to vote for it until Manchin and Sinema (and the rest of the Senate) sign on to some form of the climate and social programs package. . . .

    “Jayapal is providing a master class these last few weeks in how to wield power,” wrote Brian Fallon, director of the progressive group Demand Justice . . . .

    “It allowed the Biden administration to sort of stand back,” he said. “They let Jayapal be the bad cop here, I think there’s sort of a wink-wink relationship in her making these demands. . . " . . . .

    Sounds like classic party within a party action. Whatever happened to the Tea Party? I guess they are now just the whole party?
    France 24 has been framing this as moderates vs progressives Which is interesting.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,102
    nico679 said:

    Just imagine if another parties leader had made Johnson’s comments on cancer and life expectancy .

    Wow.

    I’ve given you the most important metric, which is – never mind life expectancy, never mind, you know, cancer outcomes – look at wage growth.

    But this certainly underlines the fact that Boris intends to use wage inflation as his foremost political weapon.
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