BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
Reasonable polling can conceal that things are not as good as they appear (as per my favourite example, early 2019 polling for TMay), and things have been far from normal for Keir since he took over, but I don't think it's wrong to still think he should have been doing better by now. It's recoverable still, but it's clearly not yet actually recovered.
I find him more appealing than most people seem to, but even so, at the moment Boris is still more of a draw than a repellant it seems.
I think it's the perceived absence of positive reasons to vote Labour. Keir is doing fine in the "Hey, I could live with him as PM" stakes, but not at actually making people feel they are keen to vote for him. By contrast, Corbyn attracted loads of people who thought he was great and couldn't wait to vote for him, but a solid bloc of 50% of the voters who really didn't like what they read about him at all. To get into power, the former is probably still the better starting point, though not ideal.
When the scenery totally collapses over the economy in the next year or two, then "hey I could live with him being PM" might be enough.
Probably not, it's a big lead the Tories have on seats, but it would open the door that currently is shut (albeit not locked).
Mail on Sunday: three Labour MPs considering defecting to the Conservatives.
Let the hunt begin.
I suspect that "considering" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
It took the mass ructions of 2017-2019 to shake lose even a handful from their parties. What in the last, say, 6-12 months has been so transformative as to get some to consider jumping now when they hadn't previously?
The only thing I can think of is Starmer very publicly coming out against Rosie Duffield at the conference
If indeed this does happen, though I am still dubious, it will be an enormous moment for Labour and not in a good way
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
It’s a midterm poll AFTER a Labour Conference and DURING a dramatic fuel shortage and blah blah blah
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
If Sturgeon falls and the SNP finally crumble, Boris will be cemented in place. No way would Labour be the sole beneficiary of such a collapse. The Tories would win a handful more seats at least.
We've been all waiting a long time for the SNP to fall. Doesn’t seem imminent to me.
The end of Sturgeon will be the moment. If the SNP still get a minimum of 40% of the vote in Holyrood/Westminster AFTER her then that is a very sobering juncture for the UK, as it means nearly half of Scotland wants Indy, whatever
Mail on Sunday: three Labour MPs considering defecting to the Conservatives.
Let the hunt begin.
I suspect that "considering" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
It took the mass ructions of 2017-2019 to shake lose even a handful from their parties. What in the last, say, 6-12 months has been so transformative as to get some to consider jumping now when they hadn't previously?
Oh, and to do so in a way that has not happened in nearly 50 years?
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
I’m surprised this is the same price as it was a week ago, considered the most Labour friendly pollster just gave them a worse score than their previous poll after a week of positive comments from friendly media
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
Do you really shudder at the thought of people being members of other parties? Very odd.
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
Very pleased you have visited our wonderful town and forget the other
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
He wasn't when he was MP for Leigh. He was pretty damned dreadful in fact.
[Although credit to him for what he did with the Justice for the 96 campaign]
Did you live in Leigh at the time? How did he carry every ward there last Spring? As well as every single other one in Greater Manchester by being "pretty damn dreadful"?
I lived in the constituency next to Leigh at the time at the time.
Burnham's record as an MP was pretty dreadful, as were his "leadership" campaigns.
His leadership campaigns were pretty dreadful. His record as mayor of Greater Manchester voted an overwhelming success. I don't see how that can be argued otherwise by anybody with a straight face. The evidence was in the ballot box.
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
Dude, you were in LLANDUDNO. Who doesn’t shudder in that unhappy circumstance?
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
It’s a midterm poll AFTER a Labour Conference and DURING a dramatic fuel shortage and blah blah blah
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
If Sturgeon falls and the SNP finally crumble, Boris will be cemented in place. No way would Labour be the sole beneficiary of such a collapse. The Tories would win a handful more seats at least.
We've been all waiting a long time for the SNP to fall. Doesn’t seem imminent to me.
The end of Sturgeon will be the moment. If the SNP still get a minimum of 40% of the vote in Holyrood/Westminster AFTER her then that is a very sobering juncture for the UK, as it means nearly half of Scotland wants Indy, whatever
We shall see
Nearly half of Scotland probably does want to go regardless. I don't see why any significant portion of the 45% from 2014 would want to change their minds and decide that this Union thingy isn't so bad after all.
How any Labour MP could defect to this current bunch of Tories is beyond me . And just as they’ve cut UC and where the winter will see huge problems for those struggling to pay their bills .
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
Dude, you were in LLANDUDNO. Who doesn’t shudder in that unhappy circumstance?
That is a bit unfair - it is the Queen of Welsh resorts and busier than ever
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
He wasn't when he was MP for Leigh. He was pretty damned dreadful in fact.
[Although credit to him for what he did with the Justice for the 96 campaign]
Did you live in Leigh at the time? How did he carry every ward there last Spring? As well as every single other one in Greater Manchester by being "pretty damn dreadful"?
I lived in the constituency next to Leigh at the time at the time.
Burnham's record as an MP was pretty dreadful, as were his "leadership" campaigns.
His leadership campaigns were pretty dreadful. His record as mayor of Greater Manchester voted an overwhelming success. I don't see how that can be argued otherwise by anybody with a straight face. The evidence was in the ballot box.
I didn't say otherwise. He's done well as Mayor, he was poor as a Westminster politician.
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
Very pleased you have visited our wonderful town and forget the other
Thank you. We had a very nice break. First time I've been to Llandudno for 37 years!
How any Labour MP could defect to this current bunch of Tories is beyond me . And just as they’ve cut UC and where the winter will see huge problems for those struggling to pay their bills .
I think you underestimate how many self entitled careerist there are in the PLP
Having looked at it more, if the list below is right only three Labour MPs have ever defected straight to the Conservatives (I've not bothered to see if someone did a switch after a period as an Indy), with the others being Alfred Edwards and Ivor Thomas doing so in 1948.
Somewhat to my surprise Labour haven't done much better, in fact it might not even have occurred until Alan Howarth in 1995 and only four times total.
Shouldn't these Labour defectors be rejected? After all, campaigning for Corbyn to be PM makes others persona non grata in polite society. Or is it "More joy in Heaven"?
How any Labour MP could defect to this current bunch of Tories is beyond me . And just as they’ve cut UC and where the winter will see huge problems for those struggling to pay their bills .
I would just caution about the story, but if it is Rosie Duffield it is an entirely self inflicted wound by Starmer siding against her on her fear of going to the conference
Shouldn't these Labour defectors be rejected? After all, campaigning for Corbyn to be PM makes others persona non grata in polite society. Or is it "More joy in Heaven"?
People make mistakes. We even have rehabilitation of offenders these days.
How any Labour MP could defect to this current bunch of Tories is beyond me . And just as they’ve cut UC and where the winter will see huge problems for those struggling to pay their bills .
I think you underestimate how many self entitled careerist there are in the PLP
That’s not reserved for just the PLP but is depressing nonetheless.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
He wasn't when he was MP for Leigh. He was pretty damned dreadful in fact.
[Although credit to him for what he did with the Justice for the 96 campaign]
Did you live in Leigh at the time? How did he carry every ward there last Spring? As well as every single other one in Greater Manchester by being "pretty damn dreadful"?
I lived in the constituency next to Leigh at the time at the time.
Burnham's record as an MP was pretty dreadful, as were his "leadership" campaigns.
His leadership campaigns were pretty dreadful. His record as mayor of Greater Manchester voted an overwhelming success. I don't see how that can be argued otherwise by anybody with a straight face. The evidence was in the ballot box.
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
Do you really shudder at the thought of people being members of other parties? Very odd.
Well, no. Or else I'd shudder every time I come here. It was the physical manifestation of Conservatism that caused the response.
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
Very pleased you have visited our wonderful town and forget the other
Thank you. We had a very nice break. First time I've been to Llandudno for 37 years!
An MP defecting because of the trans issue is going to blow that little "debate" right up into the public arena me thinks.
If that was the only reason for a defection it'd be a bloody bizarre one, when you could just go Indy.
Indy means you lose the seat next time.
Crossing the floor in a marginal is a better career option
If you want to keep your seat you don't move at all. Many a disaffected MP has remained in place and somehow keeps being selected. If you feel pushed to jump, when it is so rare, Indy makes sense while you take stock, but ostensibly the parties are very different, and to make a direct switch and suddenly be on board with many things you were just opposing, well, it's rare for a reason.
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
Dude, you were in LLANDUDNO. Who doesn’t shudder in that unhappy circumstance?
Let’s say 30% of the voting country is made up of Leave voters that REALLY care about Leave. Still. And they won’t forgive anyone that tried to do a Trump insurrection on a legal vote. They won’t forgive ‘2nd vote’ Starmer.
That’s a big floor for the Tories, as every other major party - LDs, Greens, SNP - is also Remainery.
Add in 5% of voters who are just uber-loyally Tory and 5% who can’t forget Corbyn and that’s a ~40% floor for the Tories. Enormous. So no Labour leader will ever prosper against that - not until Brexit is so cemented into place we all forget it, and Labour has a leader that is not associated with Remain (or Corbyn!)
That implies someone *like* Burnham (not necessarily him) could win for Labour in the next GE but one
It's pointless doing "maths" on numbers plucked from thin air.
It’s illustrative though
The Brexit “true believers” plus the tribal rump is probably a higher floor than the Tories had historically (which IIRC was around 32-33%)
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
It’s a midterm poll AFTER a Labour Conference and DURING a dramatic fuel shortage and blah blah blah
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
If Sturgeon falls and the SNP finally crumble, Boris will be cemented in place. No way would Labour be the sole beneficiary of such a collapse. The Tories would win a handful more seats at least.
We've been all waiting a long time for the SNP to fall. Doesn’t seem imminent to me.
The end of Sturgeon will be the moment. If the SNP still get a minimum of 40% of the vote in Holyrood/Westminster AFTER her then that is a very sobering juncture for the UK, as it means nearly half of Scotland wants Indy, whatever
We shall see
Nearly half of Scotland probably does want to go regardless. I don't see why any significant portion of the 45% from 2014 would want to change their minds and decide that this Union thingy isn't so bad after all.
I disagree. I’d have hardcore YES at about 30-35%. People who want Indy even if it makes them poorer and so on
There’s a big soft middle ground where the economics would decide. Then maybe the same 30-35% who are NO regardless
At the moment the Nats have an incredibly resilient leader who exudes competence (I think it’s fake, but my opinion is irrelevant and worthless, I don’t have a vote). And she came after the cunning brilliance of Salmond. So the YES vote is boosted by unusual SNP political prowess. To my mind
If the Nats maintain their vote under a much-more-typically crap leader, then I will yield the argument
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
It’s a midterm poll AFTER a Labour Conference and DURING a dramatic fuel shortage and blah blah blah
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
If Sturgeon falls and the SNP finally crumble, Boris will be cemented in place. No way would Labour be the sole beneficiary of such a collapse. The Tories would win a handful more seats at least.
We've been all waiting a long time for the SNP to fall. Doesn’t seem imminent to me.
The end of Sturgeon will be the moment. If the SNP still get a minimum of 40% of the vote in Holyrood/Westminster AFTER her then that is a very sobering juncture for the UK, as it means nearly half of Scotland wants Indy, whatever
We shall see
Nearly half of Scotland probably does want to go regardless. I don't see why any significant portion of the 45% from 2014 would want to change their minds and decide that this Union thingy isn't so bad after all.
32% of Quebecois voted for the separatist BQ last month even 26 years after their second independence vote from Canada was narrowly defeated.
The SNP are never going to disappear but eventually they will decline
Let’s say 30% of the voting country is made up of Leave voters that REALLY care about Leave. Still. And they won’t forgive anyone that tried to do a Trump insurrection on a legal vote. They won’t forgive ‘2nd vote’ Starmer.
That’s a big floor for the Tories, as every other major party - LDs, Greens, SNP - is also Remainery.
Add in 5% of voters who are just uber-loyally Tory and 5% who can’t forget Corbyn and that’s a ~40% floor for the Tories. Enormous. So no Labour leader will ever prosper against that - not until Brexit is so cemented into place we all forget it, and Labour has a leader that is not associated with Remain (or Corbyn!)
That implies someone *like* Burnham (not necessarily him) could win for Labour in the next GE but one
It's pointless doing "maths" on numbers plucked from thin air.
It’s illustrative though
The Brexit “true believers” plus the tribal rump is probably a higher floor than the Tories had historically (which IIRC was around 32-33%)
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
'Found yourself' standing outside it is an odd turn of phrase. Was your subconscious guiding you to what it felt was where you belonged?
How any Labour MP could defect to this current bunch of Tories is beyond me . And just as they’ve cut UC and where the winter will see huge problems for those struggling to pay their bills .
I would just caution about the story, but if it is Rosie Duffield it is an entirely self inflicted wound by Starmer siding against her on her fear of going to the conference
It would be more plausible imo if Duffield were rumoured to be defecting to the LDs.
Shouldn't these Labour defectors be rejected? After all, campaigning for Corbyn to be PM makes others persona non grata in polite society. Or is it "More joy in Heaven"?
If they served in his Cabinet even after the antisemitism revelations then yes absolutely.
If they were backbenchers then that's a different matter. You can oppose your leader from the backbenches in British politics.
How any Labour MP could defect to this current bunch of Tories is beyond me . And just as they’ve cut UC and where the winter will see huge problems for those struggling to pay their bills .
I would just caution about the story, but if it is Rosie Duffield it is an entirely self inflicted wound by Starmer siding against her on her fear of going to the conference
It would be more plausible imo if Duffield were rumoured to be defecting to the LDs.
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
Dude, you were in LLANDUDNO. Who doesn’t shudder in that unhappy circumstance?
That is a bit unfair - it is the Queen of Welsh resorts and busier than ever
I’m only teasing Big G. North Wales can be lovely, even sublime in places. I love the great castles of Conwy etc
And hearing Welsh spoken by young children in the high battlements of Harlech, next to a fluttering flag of the Welsh dragon, I defy a grown man not to tear up, just a little. The survival of Welsh is one of the linguistic miracles of the ages. It’s a pity the Irish and Scots were not so gritty and tenacious
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
He wasn't when he was MP for Leigh. He was pretty damned dreadful in fact.
[Although credit to him for what he did with the Justice for the 96 campaign]
Did you live in Leigh at the time? How did he carry every ward there last Spring? As well as every single other one in Greater Manchester by being "pretty damn dreadful"?
I lived in the constituency next to Leigh at the time at the time.
Burnham's record as an MP was pretty dreadful, as were his "leadership" campaigns.
His leadership campaigns were pretty dreadful. His record as mayor of Greater Manchester voted an overwhelming success. I don't see how that can be argued otherwise by anybody with a straight face. The evidence was in the ballot box.
Yes and Yes
He has matured a lot as a politician since 2015
That’s because he was let off the leash. He was a very young man. Not even an MP till 2001, and clearly marked early as a potential successor to Gordon in the permanent New Labour hegemony. So. He was told how to talk, how to vote, even how to dress. He was a stock character. Whereas, he actually is a bloke with his own mind and hinterland. He plays well with a grievance to a gallery. Being in the governing Party didn’t give him that.
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
Mail on Sunday: three Labour MPs considering defecting to the Conservatives.
Let the hunt begin.
It’s a made up story just to f*ck with Labour
Could have come from PLP. If so you can bet its an attempt to spark a leadership challenge to SKS from the right.
Maybe not even that perhaps, but just a warning that he needs to start showing some more progress in the polls after a decent Conference performance. 'Do better or we might face defections' is a blunt threat.
Let’s say 30% of the voting country is made up of Leave voters that REALLY care about Leave. Still. And they won’t forgive anyone that tried to do a Trump insurrection on a legal vote. They won’t forgive ‘2nd vote’ Starmer.
That’s a big floor for the Tories, as every other major party - LDs, Greens, SNP - is also Remainery.
Add in 5% of voters who are just uber-loyally Tory and 5% who can’t forget Corbyn and that’s a ~40% floor for the Tories. Enormous. So no Labour leader will ever prosper against that - not until Brexit is so cemented into place we all forget it, and Labour has a leader that is not associated with Remain (or Corbyn!)
That implies someone *like* Burnham (not necessarily him) could win for Labour in the next GE but one
It's pointless doing "maths" on numbers plucked from thin air.
It’s illustrative though
The Brexit “true believers” plus the tribal rump is probably a higher floor than the Tories had historically (which IIRC was around 32-33%)
It's illustrative of nothing at all. All those numbers are totally made up. To pretend that there's a block as big as 30% whose overriding motivation for voting is one issue is, I reckon, for the birds. People are a lot more complicated than that.
Any place you draw the line on one issue will cut across diversity on other issues. You can't do regression or support vector machines in two dimensions on voters, it just doesn't work.
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
Dude, you were in LLANDUDNO. Who doesn’t shudder in that unhappy circumstance?
That is a bit unfair - it is the Queen of Welsh resorts and busier than ever
Alan Howarth's page claims he was indeed the first Conservative MP to defect directly to Labour, so it took the better part of a century. And 'first former Conservative MP to sit as a Labour MP since Sir Oswald Mosley'.
Let’s say 30% of the voting country is made up of Leave voters that REALLY care about Leave. Still. And they won’t forgive anyone that tried to do a Trump insurrection on a legal vote. They won’t forgive ‘2nd vote’ Starmer.
That’s a big floor for the Tories, as every other major party - LDs, Greens, SNP - is also Remainery.
Add in 5% of voters who are just uber-loyally Tory and 5% who can’t forget Corbyn and that’s a ~40% floor for the Tories. Enormous. So no Labour leader will ever prosper against that - not until Brexit is so cemented into place we all forget it, and Labour has a leader that is not associated with Remain (or Corbyn!)
That implies someone *like* Burnham (not necessarily him) could win for Labour in the next GE but one
It's pointless doing "maths" on numbers plucked from thin air.
It’s illustrative though
The Brexit “true believers” plus the tribal rump is probably a higher floor than the Tories had historically (which IIRC was around 32-33%)
Mail on Sunday: three Labour MPs considering defecting to the Conservatives.
Let the hunt begin.
It’s a made up story just to f*ck with Labour
Could have come from PLP. If so you can bet its an attempt to spark a leadership challenge to SKS from the right.
Maybe not even that perhaps, but just a warning that he needs to start showing some more progress in the polls after a decent Conference performance. 'Do better or we might face defections' is a blunt threat.
Gotta feel for Starmer tho. He is what he is. Not exciting, not box office like Boris, not a firebrand like Corbyn. Competent, worthy, but deeply tarnished by the stain of Remoanerism. He wanted to overthrow democracy. Tsk
He is doing his best, and it probably isn’t good enough.
As another pb-er aptly puts it, he’s the plumber that has to unblock the toilets. A messy but necessary job. Some other leader will then move in to the refurbished house of Labour governance
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
Let’s say 30% of the voting country is made up of Leave voters that REALLY care about Leave. Still. And they won’t forgive anyone that tried to do a Trump insurrection on a legal vote. They won’t forgive ‘2nd vote’ Starmer.
That’s a big floor for the Tories, as every other major party - LDs, Greens, SNP - is also Remainery.
Add in 5% of voters who are just uber-loyally Tory and 5% who can’t forget Corbyn and that’s a ~40% floor for the Tories. Enormous. So no Labour leader will ever prosper against that - not until Brexit is so cemented into place we all forget it, and Labour has a leader that is not associated with Remain (or Corbyn!)
That implies someone *like* Burnham (not necessarily him) could win for Labour in the next GE but one
It's pointless doing "maths" on numbers plucked from thin air.
It’s illustrative though
The Brexit “true believers” plus the tribal rump is probably a higher floor than the Tories had historically (which IIRC was around 32-33%)
It's illustrative of nothing at all. All those numbers are totally made up. To pretend that there's a block as big as 30% whose overriding motivation for voting is one issue is, I reckon, for the birds. People are a lot more complicated than that.
Any place you draw the line on one issue will cut across diversity on other issues. You can't do regression or support vector machines in two dimensions on voters, it just doesn't work.
Except, duhhh, Scotland. At Holyrood and Westminster at least 30% of Scots vote for Indy and who will best deliver it. One issue. That’s it
It wasn't until I was looking at the wiki list of MPs switching parties that I remembered a) there are 5 Tories currently with the whip suspended, and b) that Alba now have two MPs.
Anecdote. Someone near me put up an Alba poster in the last few days. Seems a bit strange, there's no by-election here as far as I've heard, and the local elections are about 6 months away.
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin.
Agreed and probably wont happen. Only nagging doubt is Duffield is definitely keen to get out of Lab and join a Party that is fine with Transphobes
It wasn't until I was looking at the wiki list of MPs switching parties that I remembered a) there are 5 Tories currently with the whip suspended, and b) that Alba now have two MPs.
Anecdote. Someone near me put up an Alba poster in the last few days. Seems a bit strange, there's no by-election here as far as I've heard, and the local elections are about 6 months away.
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
Also note the use of the Mail 'understands' rather than one step stronger 'has learned'.
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
'Found yourself' standing outside it is an odd turn of phrase. Was your subconscious guiding you to what it felt was where you belonged?
Were you hoping to catch a glimpse of BigG, or even get his autograph?
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin.
Agreed and probably wont happen. Only nagging doubt is Duffield is definitely keen to get out of Lab and join a Party that is fine with Transphobes
See. This bit I find curious too. The Tories have enjoyed the trans stuff, by having no official opinion. Nor doing very much. They haven't touched the 2010 Equality Act with a bargepole for good reason. Are all Tory MP's of one mind on this matter?
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
It’s almost certainly untrue.
Why would you defect now? It is highly likely Starmer will make gains in 2024, albeit probably not enough to win or become PM. Starmer is not an anti-Semite friend of the IRA and Hamas. He’s iffy on trans issues (if you’re an old school feminist) but they all are, and is Boris ‘six kids’ Johnson *better*?
If you defect now you get the hatred of your loyalists and you will probably lose your seat to a recovering Labour Party in 2024. Doesn’t compute. It’s nonsense
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
It’s almost certainly untrue.
Why would you defect now? It is highly likely Starmer will make gains in 2024, albeit probably not enough to win or become PM. Starmer is not an anti-Semite friend of the IRA and Hamas. He’s iffy on trans issues (if you’re an old school feminist) but they all are, and is Boris ‘six kids’ Johnson *better*?
If you defect now you get the hatred of your loyalists and you will probably lose your seat to a recovering Labour Party in 2024. Doesn’t compute. It’s nonsense
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
'Found yourself' standing outside it is an odd turn of phrase. Was your subconscious guiding you to what it felt was where you belonged?
Were you hoping to catch a glimpse of BigG, or even get his autograph?
I have never been to Llandudno Conservative Club in my 56 years living here
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
'Found yourself' standing outside it is an odd turn of phrase. Was your subconscious guiding you to what it felt was where you belonged?
Were you hoping to catch a glimpse of BigG, or even get his autograph?
I have never been to Llandudno Conservative Club in my 56 years living here
My theory is Sandy had heard the Asda had plentiful supplies of fuel!!
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
'Found yourself' standing outside it is an odd turn of phrase. Was your subconscious guiding you to what it felt was where you belonged?
Were you hoping to catch a glimpse of BigG, or even get his autograph?
I have never been to Llandudno Conservative Club in my 56 years living here
Oh I was hoping you could sign me in on my next visit.
So driving home this afternoon it appeared to be situation normal at all of the filling stations we passed. The Shell that had people queuing waiting for a tanker to unload on Thursday had pumps available with no queue today.
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
'Found yourself' standing outside it is an odd turn of phrase. Was your subconscious guiding you to what it felt was where you belonged?
Were you hoping to catch a glimpse of BigG, or even get his autograph?
I have never been to Llandudno Conservative Club in my 56 years living here
Oh I was hoping you could sign me in on my next visit.
I am not a member of the conservative party @bigjohnowls
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
Also note the use of the Mail 'understands' rather than one step stronger 'has learned'.
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
It’s almost certainly untrue.
Why would you defect now? It is highly likely Starmer will make gains in 2024, albeit probably not enough to win or become PM. Starmer is not an anti-Semite friend of the IRA and Hamas. He’s iffy on trans issues (if you’re an old school feminist) but they all are, and is Boris ‘six kids’ Johnson *better*?
If you defect now you get the hatred of your loyalists and you will probably lose your seat to a recovering Labour Party in 2024. Doesn’t compute. It’s nonsense
Labour are not going to win.
If Boris parachutes you into a safe Tory seat?
What safe Tory seats, and why?! Boris is popular with local Tory constituencies. He wouldn’t enrage them by displacing local candidates (unless we are talking massive Labour figures, but, sadly, Labour don’t have any of those). Not even sure Boris has the power
The story is a load of silly shit-stirring. The more interesting question is who, and why?
The Mail - tho some will demur - does not create stories out of nothing. It’s not the Sunday sport. Some Labour MPs are spinning this to destabilize Starmer. My guess is centrist friends of Burnham (or the like) who sense keir has done his stable-cleaning job but now has to go
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
Also note the use of the Mail 'understands' rather than one step stronger 'has learned'.
"Sources say".
I am not convinced but if Sky and BBC start reporting it then it becomes quite a story
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
It’s almost certainly untrue.
Why would you defect now? It is highly likely Starmer will make gains in 2024, albeit probably not enough to win or become PM. Starmer is not an anti-Semite friend of the IRA and Hamas. He’s iffy on trans issues (if you’re an old school feminist) but they all are, and is Boris ‘six kids’ Johnson *better*?
If you defect now you get the hatred of your loyalists and you will probably lose your seat to a recovering Labour Party in 2024. Doesn’t compute. It’s nonsense
Unless it's long-serving MPs who are planning to retire anyway.
I find the 3 Labour MPs moving to the Tories a bit unbelievable frankly.
Didn't see Starmer's speech but by all accounts it was ok. Why on earth would Labour MPs move to the Tories? It's the left which is a bit fed up with him.
How any Labour MP could defect to this current bunch of Tories is beyond me . And just as they’ve cut UC and where the winter will see huge problems for those struggling to pay their bills .
So these three imaginary MPs (I checked to see who they were- no dice) were happy to fight for Corbyn yet can't deal with the Centrist Starmer and plan to jump ship to Johnson. Hmmm?
So who could these three MPs be? My guess Corbyn, McDonnell and Lavery.. Let's face it they were a Trojan horse that delivered Johnson an 80 seat majority so why not stop the pretence and join the party...or is BJO an MP?
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
It’s almost certainly untrue.
Why would you defect now? It is highly likely Starmer will make gains in 2024, albeit probably not enough to win or become PM. Starmer is not an anti-Semite friend of the IRA and Hamas. He’s iffy on trans issues (if you’re an old school feminist) but they all are, and is Boris ‘six kids’ Johnson *better*?
If you defect now you get the hatred of your loyalists and you will probably lose your seat to a recovering Labour Party in 2024. Doesn’t compute. It’s nonsense
Unless it's long-serving MPs who are planning to retire anyway.
Then why go through the hassle? It's not as though they have a career to promote. And the ideological difference is tiny compared to at the 2019 election.
I find the 3 Labour MPs moving to the Tories a bit unbelievable frankly.
Didn't see Starmer's speech but by all accounts it was ok. Why on earth would Labour MPs move to the Tories? It's the left which is a bit fed up with him.
I can think of one good reason for a Labour MP to defect to the Tories - a one-on-one chat with Rishi Sunak about directing levelling up money to my constituency.
Surely better to take the credit for it yourself, rather than to be unseated at the next election by the Tory candidate and have them do so subsequently.
I find the 3 Labour MPs moving to the Tories a bit unbelievable frankly.
Didn't see Starmer's speech but by all accounts it was ok. Why on earth would Labour MPs move to the Tories? It's the left which is a bit fed up with him.
I did mention earlier that the jump from Corbynomics to Johnsonomics was incredibly small, but yeah it's like AOC joining the Trump 24 campaign.
Pleased to report, that yours truly is slightly less toxic (in public health sense anyway) than I was when I last posted, because I just got my COVID booster shot (Pfizer).
Called toll free number I got in email from my health provider, at 1pm Seattle time, and was offered an appointment at 3pm. Which I took, hopped on the bus, and got there early. No line, no waiting, and I was out the door (including 15-minute post-shot waiting period) by 3pm.
I find the 3 Labour MPs moving to the Tories a bit unbelievable frankly.
Didn't see Starmer's speech but by all accounts it was ok. Why on earth would Labour MPs move to the Tories? It's the left which is a bit fed up with him.
I can think of one good reason for a Labour MP to defect to the Tories - a one-on-one chat with Rishi Sunak about directing levelling up money to my constituency.
Surely better to take the credit for it yourself, rather than to be unseated at the next election by the Tory candidate and have them do so subsequently.
Decent theory. But. Does the Chancellor have a bulging War chest of infinite spondulicks? And, if he does, won't most longstanding Tory MP'S have an opinion on him spaffing it on areas other than their own? The vast majority of Conservative MP's even now, represent constituencies of above average income. And were elected to keep spending and taxes as low as possible. And this only applies if said MP is intending to seek re-election. It is certainly feasible. But would need to be a significant "bribe". Certainly, the levelling up money thus far hasn't been transformative.
I find the 3 Labour MPs moving to the Tories a bit unbelievable frankly.
Didn't see Starmer's speech but by all accounts it was ok. Why on earth would Labour MPs move to the Tories? It's the left which is a bit fed up with him.
I can think of one good reason for a Labour MP to defect to the Tories - a one-on-one chat with Rishi Sunak about directing levelling up money to my constituency.
Surely better to take the credit for it yourself, rather than to be unseated at the next election by the Tory candidate and have them do so subsequently.
I'm with Cyclefree. Just can't see it. Although I have no doubt there are self-serving duplicitous MPs who would do whatever it takes for self-preservation.
It wasn't until I was looking at the wiki list of MPs switching parties that I remembered a) there are 5 Tories currently with the whip suspended, and b) that Alba now have two MPs.
Anecdote. Someone near me put up an Alba poster in the last few days. Seems a bit strange, there's no by-election here as far as I've heard, and the local elections are about 6 months away.
Malc on a road trip? Perhaps targeting locales of eminent (or at least prolific) PBers?
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
It’s almost certainly untrue.
Why would you defect now? It is highly likely Starmer will make gains in 2024, albeit probably not enough to win or become PM. Starmer is not an anti-Semite friend of the IRA and Hamas. He’s iffy on trans issues (if you’re an old school feminist) but they all are, and is Boris ‘six kids’ Johnson *better*?
If you defect now you get the hatred of your loyalists and you will probably lose your seat to a recovering Labour Party in 2024. Doesn’t compute. It’s nonsense
Unless it's long-serving MPs who are planning to retire anyway.
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin.
Agreed and probably wont happen. Only nagging doubt is Duffield is definitely keen to get out of Lab and join a Party that is fine with Transphobes
See. This bit I find curious too. The Tories have enjoyed the trans stuff, by having no official opinion. Nor doing very much. They haven't touched the 2010 Equality Act with a bargepole for good reason. Are all Tory MP's of one mind on this matter?
If you recall (or ever knew) Republicans tried to make hay with transphobia back in mid 2010s. Mike Pence in particular made himself look like a fool - and a weenie - in the process.
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
It’s almost certainly untrue.
Why would you defect now? It is highly likely Starmer will make gains in 2024, albeit probably not enough to win or become PM. Starmer is not an anti-Semite friend of the IRA and Hamas. He’s iffy on trans issues (if you’re an old school feminist) but they all are, and is Boris ‘six kids’ Johnson *better*?
If you defect now you get the hatred of your loyalists and you will probably lose your seat to a recovering Labour Party in 2024. Doesn’t compute. It’s nonsense
An unusual piece of wisdom from you on a Saturday evening/Sunday morning. Top marks.
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin.
Agreed and probably wont happen. Only nagging doubt is Duffield is definitely keen to get out of Lab and join a Party that is fine with Transphobes
See. This bit I find curious too. The Tories have enjoyed the trans stuff, by having no official opinion. Nor doing very much. They haven't touched the 2010 Equality Act with a bargepole for good reason. Are all Tory MP's of one mind on this matter?
If you recall (or ever knew) Republicans tried to make hay with transphobia back in mid 2010s. Mike Pence in particular made himself look like a fool - and a weenie - in the process.
I know considerably more than I would like to. As an issue, my advice would be don't go there. The more you learn, the more complex it becomes. I find it difficult to believe that the Tories, having seen Lab and LD squirm over the past 2 weeks, would jump in with both feet.
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin.
Agreed and probably wont happen. Only nagging doubt is Duffield is definitely keen to get out of Lab and join a Party that is fine with Transphobes
See. This bit I find curious too. The Tories have enjoyed the trans stuff, by having no official opinion. Nor doing very much. They haven't touched the 2010 Equality Act with a bargepole for good reason. Are all Tory MP's of one mind on this matter?
If you recall (or ever knew) Republicans tried to make hay with transphobia back in mid 2010s. Mike Pence in particular made himself look like a fool - and a weenie - in the process.
I know considerably more than I would like to. As an issue, my advice would be don't go there. The more you learn, the more complex it becomes. I find it difficult to believe that the Tories, having seen Lab and LD squirm over the past 2 weeks, would jump in with both feet.
Sorry, did NOT mean that your personally were unaware, meant it as a general statement!
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin.
Agreed and probably wont happen. Only nagging doubt is Duffield is definitely keen to get out of Lab and join a Party that is fine with Transphobes
See. This bit I find curious too. The Tories have enjoyed the trans stuff, by having no official opinion. Nor doing very much. They haven't touched the 2010 Equality Act with a bargepole for good reason. Are all Tory MP's of one mind on this matter?
If you recall (or ever knew) Republicans tried to make hay with transphobia back in mid 2010s. Mike Pence in particular made himself look like a fool - and a weenie - in the process.
I know considerably more than I would like to. As an issue, my advice would be don't go there. The more you learn, the more complex it becomes. I find it difficult to believe that the Tories, having seen Lab and LD squirm over the past 2 weeks, would jump in with both feet.
Sorry, did NOT mean that your personally were unaware, meant it as a general statement!
Yeah, I get that. At the moment the "common sense, innit, only natural " reaction is working very well for the Tories. Just like Gay rights in the 80's did. They would be mad to invite any nuance or complexity into the discussion. Plus. About 1% give a toss. Why make it more?
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin.
Agreed and probably wont happen. Only nagging doubt is Duffield is definitely keen to get out of Lab and join a Party that is fine with Transphobes
See. This bit I find curious too. The Tories have enjoyed the trans stuff, by having no official opinion. Nor doing very much. They haven't touched the 2010 Equality Act with a bargepole for good reason. Are all Tory MP's of one mind on this matter?
If you recall (or ever knew) Republicans tried to make hay with transphobia back in mid 2010s. Mike Pence in particular made himself look like a fool - and a weenie - in the process.
I know considerably more than I would like to. As an issue, my advice would be don't go there. The more you learn, the more complex it becomes. I find it difficult to believe that the Tories, having seen Lab and LD squirm over the past 2 weeks, would jump in with both feet.
Sorry, did NOT mean that your personally were unaware, meant it as a general statement!
Yeah, I get that. At the moment the "common sense, innit, only natural " reaction is working very well for the Tories. Just like Gay rights in the 80's did. They would be mad to invite any nuance or complexity into the discussion. Plus. About 1% give a toss. Why make it more?
I'm old enough to remember how the GOP made a meal of homophobia in the 1980s. For example, peppering campaign ads with footage taken at San Francisco gay pride parades. Got them some rather limited political dividends, but left a bad case of ring-around-the-bigot.
BTW (and FYI) yours truly has a theory (grab your coat and walk, don't run!) re: the rapidly-diminishing returns for homophobia as a political wedge issue, leastways for Republicans.
Back in the day, GOPers made a big deal of the shocking degeneracy of gay people and what they got up to & etc. etc. However, methinks the rise of the internet as a mass phenomenon put the kibosh on THAT.
Why? Because I reckon that about 99% of populace who has private access to the web (not in cyber sense, but whether your spouse, family, boss can see what you're clicking on) has taken a gander at internet porn. AND anyone who does, must come to the realization PDQ that what the gays are doing (certainly in terms of quantity) is WAY less shocking that the depravity of the heterosexual community.
WRT the 3 MPs, the only possibles I could suggest would be women who feel bullied wrt trans issues, or those left in constituencies which may swing Tory who are in the Red Wall / North. From a cold analysis, they would also need a strong personal vote, perhaps?
There aren't any such left in Nottinghamshire, as outside Nottingham they are now all Tories.
Are there any on constituencies that have decisively benefited from Govt decisions - which constituency is Sheffield Forgemasters in, for example, or Nissan?
Would any go on Green issues, where the Govt have done quite well, though it is not acknowledged? Are there any genuinely green Labour MPs?
WRT the 3 MPs, the only possibles I could suggest would be women who feel bullied wrt trans issues, or those left in constituencies which may swing Tory who are in the Red Wall / North. From a cold analysis, they would also need a strong personal vote, perhaps?
There aren't any such left in Nottinghamshire, as outside Nottingham they are now all Tories.
Are there any on constituencies that have decisively benefited from Govt decisions - which constituency is Sheffield Forgemasters in, for example, or Nissan?
Would any go on Green issues, where the Govt have done quite well, though it is not acknowledged? Are there any genuinely green Labour MPs?
I don't buy it, personally.
But. If it were someone, I think it would almost certainly be someone who didn't plan on standing again in 2024.
WRT the 3 MPs, the only possibles I could suggest would be women who feel bullied wrt trans issues, or those left in constituencies which may swing Tory who are in the Red Wall / North. From a cold analysis, they would also need a strong personal vote, perhaps?
There aren't any such left in Nottinghamshire, as outside Nottingham they are now all Tories.
Are there any on constituencies that have decisively benefited from Govt decisions - which constituency is Sheffield Forgemasters in, for example, or Nissan?
Would any go on Green issues, where the Govt have done quite well, though it is not acknowledged? Are there any genuinely green Labour MPs?
If there's any truth to it, I think it's likely to be MPs who were planning to stand down at the next election anyway. So probably men who've been in the Commons for at least 15 years or so.
Be hilarious if those were not stock sillouettes but the actual MPs shaded out, and people identified them from it.
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
Yep. Read the article. It is remarkably thin. Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
It’s almost certainly untrue.
Why would you defect now? It is highly likely Starmer will make gains in 2024, albeit probably not enough to win or become PM. Starmer is not an anti-Semite friend of the IRA and Hamas. He’s iffy on trans issues (if you’re an old school feminist) but they all are, and is Boris ‘six kids’ Johnson *better*?
If you defect now you get the hatred of your loyalists and you will probably lose your seat to a recovering Labour Party in 2024. Doesn’t compute. It’s nonsense
Unless it's long-serving MPs who are planning to retire anyway.
Then why go through the hassle? It's not as though they have a career to promote. And the ideological difference is tiny compared to at the 2019 election.
Where's the hassle in defecting if you're standing down in two years anyway? But I agree, I don't think anything will happen. 90% of rumours like this turn out to be nonsense.
I doubt the 3 defection story in the MOS but it's amusing to listen to the comments from some on here who are still trapped in the 'commentariat' view of politics today that SKS is the new messiah, everyone hates Boris & Brexit, and the Tories are scum. They are equally puzzled by the Conference boost for Labour of -2 points! The dissonance is back!
Comments
If indeed this does happen, though I am still dubious, it will be an enormous moment for Labour and not in a good way
We shall see
The political battle in one Texas county where Trump got 81% of the vote offers a rare view into the virulent distrust and unyielding pressure facing elections administrators.
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/01/texas-election-official-hood/
Earlier in the day I found myself standing outside Llandudno Conservative Club. I shuddered.
His record as mayor of Greater Manchester voted an overwhelming success.
I don't see how that can be argued otherwise by anybody with a straight face.
The evidence was in the ballot box.
Crossing the floor in a marginal is a better career option
Somewhat to my surprise Labour haven't done much better, in fact it might not even have occurred until Alan Howarth in 1995 and only four times total.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elected_British_politicians_who_have_changed_party_affiliation#2017–2019_Parliament
Or is it "More joy in Heaven"?
He has matured a lot as a politician since 2015
Darcy's Tea Room was much more to my liking.
Night all.
The Brexit “true believers” plus the tribal rump is probably a higher floor than the Tories had historically (which IIRC was around 32-33%)
There’s a big soft middle ground where the economics would decide. Then maybe the same 30-35% who are NO regardless
At the moment the Nats have an incredibly resilient leader who exudes competence (I think it’s fake, but my opinion is irrelevant and worthless, I don’t have a vote). And she came after the cunning brilliance of Salmond. So the YES vote is boosted by unusual SNP political prowess. To my mind
If the Nats maintain their vote under a much-more-typically crap leader, then I will yield the argument
The SNP are never going to disappear but eventually they will decline
If they were backbenchers then that's a different matter. You can oppose your leader from the backbenches in British politics.
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1444399931242995714/photo/1
And hearing Welsh spoken by young children in the high battlements of Harlech, next to a fluttering flag of the Welsh dragon, I defy a grown man not to tear up, just a little. The survival of Welsh is one of the linguistic miracles of the ages. It’s a pity the Irish and Scots were not so gritty and tenacious
So. He was told how to talk, how to vote, even how to dress. He was a stock character.
Whereas, he actually is a bloke with his own mind and hinterland. He plays well with a grievance to a gallery. Being in the governing Party didn’t give him that.
I am not at all convinced it is going to happen but then this is politics where anything can happen
That's a lot of text for the story though, with the relevant bits being just the opening 3 paras that supposedly 'communication lines' were opened with Tory whips, and that they are 'in despair' about Keir's failure to make inroads into the Tory lead*, with the rest basically just background on Labour selection changes and Russell-Moyle whinging. It's seriously weak on the threat being real.
*So they are angry that Keir cannot close the gap to Boris, so instead will just join Boris?
Fun story, but it'd be epochal. Are we fortunate enough to see such momentous times?
I mean, again.
To pretend that there's a block as big as 30% whose overriding motivation for voting is one issue is, I reckon, for the birds. People are a lot more complicated than that.
Any place you draw the line on one issue will cut across diversity on other issues. You can't do regression or support vector machines in two dimensions on voters, it just doesn't work.
https://twitter.com/tif_marley/status/1444419420407963650/photo/1
He is doing his best, and it probably isn’t good enough.
As another pb-er aptly puts it, he’s the plumber that has to unblock the toilets. A messy but necessary job. Some other leader will then move in to the refurbished house of Labour governance
Doesn't make it untrue, mind.
If Rayner's gobby outburst led to three more Tory MPs....that would be glorious!
Look for those with small majorities in the Red Wall? Coventry way?
Are all Tory MP's of one mind on this matter?
Why would you defect now? It is highly likely Starmer will make gains in 2024, albeit probably not enough to win or become PM. Starmer is not an anti-Semite friend of the IRA and Hamas. He’s iffy on trans issues (if you’re an old school feminist) but they all are, and is Boris ‘six kids’ Johnson *better*?
If you defect now you get the hatred of your loyalists and you will probably lose your seat to a recovering Labour Party in 2024. Doesn’t compute. It’s nonsense
18/2/19 Lab to Change UK
1/4/19 Change UK to Independent
10/7/19 Independent to The Independents
5/9/19 The Independents to LDs
GE 2019 lost by 7,000 to Tories in Finchley and Golders Green
If Boris parachutes you into a safe Tory seat?
The story is a load of silly shit-stirring. The more interesting question is who, and why?
The Mail - tho some will demur - does not create stories out of nothing. It’s not the Sunday sport. Some Labour MPs are spinning this to destabilize Starmer. My guess is centrist friends of Burnham (or the like) who sense keir has done his stable-cleaning job but now has to go
Didn't see Starmer's speech but by all accounts it was ok. Why on earth would Labour MPs move to the Tories? It's the left which is a bit fed up with him.
So who could these three MPs be? My guess Corbyn, McDonnell and Lavery.. Let's face it they were a Trojan horse that delivered Johnson an 80 seat majority so why not stop the pretence and join the party...or is BJO an MP?
And the ideological difference is tiny compared to at the 2019 election.
Surely better to take the credit for it yourself, rather than to be unseated at the next election by the Tory candidate and have them do so subsequently.
Called toll free number I got in email from my health provider, at 1pm Seattle time, and was offered an appointment at 3pm. Which I took, hopped on the bus, and got there early. No line, no waiting, and I was out the door (including 15-minute post-shot waiting period) by 3pm.
Not too shabby!
Does the Chancellor have a bulging War chest of infinite spondulicks?
And, if he does, won't most longstanding Tory MP'S have an opinion on him spaffing it on areas other than their own?
The vast majority of Conservative MP's even now, represent constituencies of above average income. And were elected to keep spending and taxes as low as possible.
And this only applies if said MP is intending to seek re-election. It is certainly feasible. But would need to be a significant "bribe". Certainly, the levelling up money thus far hasn't been transformative.
As an issue, my advice would be don't go there. The more you learn, the more complex it becomes.
I find it difficult to believe that the Tories, having seen Lab and LD squirm over the past 2 weeks, would jump in with both feet.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2021/04/me-myself-and-ipsos-mori-what-being-polled-taught-me-about-public-opinion
They would be mad to invite any nuance or complexity into the discussion.
Plus. About 1% give a toss. Why make it more?
Just checked out Rosie Duffield's analysis of Starmer's speech. The polar opposite of Laura Pidcock. It's not Coyle either.
BTW (and FYI) yours truly has a theory (grab your coat and walk, don't run!) re: the rapidly-diminishing returns for homophobia as a political wedge issue, leastways for Republicans.
Back in the day, GOPers made a big deal of the shocking degeneracy of gay people and what they got up to & etc. etc. However, methinks the rise of the internet as a mass phenomenon put the kibosh on THAT.
Why? Because I reckon that about 99% of populace who has private access to the web (not in cyber sense, but whether your spouse, family, boss can see what you're clicking on) has taken a gander at internet porn. AND anyone who does, must come to the realization PDQ that what the gays are doing (certainly in terms of quantity) is WAY less shocking that the depravity of the heterosexual community.
There aren't any such left in Nottinghamshire, as outside Nottingham they are now all Tories.
Are there any on constituencies that have decisively benefited from Govt decisions - which constituency is Sheffield Forgemasters in, for example, or Nissan?
Would any go on Green issues, where the Govt have done quite well, though it is not acknowledged? Are there any genuinely green Labour MPs?
But. If it were someone, I think it would almost certainly be someone who didn't plan on standing again in 2024.