So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
The new boundaries will not be as pro Tory as they would be under say Cameron as most of the net gains will be in London and the South East where Boris is relatively less popular than the RedWall
The electoral map is very different to when Cameron was PM.
Mansfield 2015 result under Cameron - Labour majority 5,315
Mansfield 2019 result under Johnson - Conservative majority 16,306
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
Not even a dead cat that.
A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.
Corbyn was 12% behind in 2019, Starmer is 4% behind tonight
22 months after the 2017 GE, ie where we are now, Corbyn was 9% ahead
22 months after the 2017 GE was April 2019 when Labour were polling 33% under Corbyn with Opinium ie below the 35% they are polling with Starmer.
The only reason they were ahead was Farage's BXP was on 17% to 26% for May's Tories, as soon as Boris took over the BXP vote shifted back to the Tories again
They led 36-29 at this stage with Opinium
He will defend the indefensible to the end
He does not know anything else
There is nothing indefensible about it, it is completely idiotic to say Corbyn had a lead on just 33% of the vote when Farage was in double figures and completely splitting the Tory vote under May's leadership.
If Boris had not won back those Tory votes lost to the BXP then Corbyn may indeed have become PM under FPTP on just a third of the vote.
Even the inept William Hague got a poll lead in the middle of a petrol crisis. SKS can't even manage that.
@bigjohnowls is right. SKS is going to lose, and lose badly.
Worst result since 1926 on the cards
On tonight's Opinium Labour would be on 246 seats, ie 44 more Labour MPs under Starmer than Corbyn got in 2019
If the underdog holds their serve in the first game of a tennis match, it doesn’t mean there’s a shock on the cards. What will it take to make you understand that running mid term polls through electoral calculus then drawing conclusions from the result is completely futile?
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
The new boundaries will not be as pro Tory as they would be under say Cameron as most of the net gains will be in London and the South East where Boris is relatively less popular than the RedWall
The electoral map is very different to when Cameron was PM.
Mansfield 2015 result under Cameron - Labour majority 5,315
Mansfield 2019 result under Johnson - Conservative majority 16,306
Yes but Oxford W and Abingdon, St Albans, Enfield Southgate, Battersea, Canterbury, Putney, Richmond Park, Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton, Reading East etc all Tory seats under Cameron in 2010 and 2015, all now Labour or LD seats in London and the SE.
The Tories have not gained a single seat in London and the SE however that Cameron did not win apart from Carshalton and Wallington. So yes Boris did well to win the redwall but the boundary changes will not help him much as they will see a net shift in seats from the North and Midlands and Wales to London and the SE
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
Not even a dead cat that.
A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.
That may well be so, we shall see, but that has nothing to do with dismissing relevant factors as irrelevant even if you think them less relevant than that one.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
Not even a dead cat that.
A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.
Corbyn was 12% behind in 2019, Starmer is 4% behind tonight
22 months after the 2017 GE, ie where we are now, Corbyn was 9% ahead
22 months after the 2017 GE was April 2019 when Labour were polling 33% under Corbyn with Opinium ie below the 35% they are polling with Starmer.
The only reason they were ahead was Farage's BXP was on 17% to 26% for May's Tories, as soon as Boris took over the BXP vote shifted back to the Tories again
They led 36-29 at this stage with Opinium
He will defend the indefensible to the end
He does not know anything else
There is nothing indefensible about it, it is completely idiotic to say Corbyn had a lead on just 33% of the vote when Farage was in double figures and completely splitting the Tory vote under May's leadership.
If Boris had not won back those Tory votes lost to the BXP then Corbyn may indeed have become PM under FPTP on just a third of the vote.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
2019 defeat = yeah because of Corbyn.
2024 is the latest prize And 2019 was mainly down to desire for Brexit and Boris
SKS policy on BREXIT 2nd Referendum was a disaster on the doorstep
Corbyn was leader in 2019, so ultimately it was Corbyn's policy.
Yes, it's like when PM's blame senior ministers (often through leaks, eg re the budget) as though they are not, or should be, coordinating it all.
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
On tonight's evidence you would be right. I am shocked there has been no temporary declne in the Conservatives fortunes after the chaos of the last week, particularly as the Blair Government suffered mightily under similar circumstances.
I didn't expect much from the tail end of the Labour Party Conference as it was, like you suggested earlier in the week, overshadowed by far more significant news.
Corbyn has damaged Labour's brand for years to come. Whatever BJO may think, the problem is not the leader, it is the Party's Corbyn era brand. If the leader were the lovechild of Mother Theresa and Nelson Mandela they wouldn't get a look in either.
Starmer did OK this week, your sneering at "Labour's self congratulatory conference" is disingenuous and far from reality, as demonstrated by Laura Pidcock's non-self congratulatory analysis . Mind you the members fighting like rats in a sack isn't a good look.
Even the inept William Hague got a poll lead in the middle of a petrol crisis. SKS can't even manage that.
@bigjohnowls is right. SKS is going to lose, and lose badly.
Worst result since 1926 on the cards
On tonight's Opinium Labour would be on 246 seats, ie 44 more Labour MPs under Starmer than Corbyn got in 2019
If the underdog holds their serve in the first game of a tennis match, it doesn’t mean there’s a shock on the cards. What will it take to make you understand that running mid term polls through electoral calculus then drawing conclusions from the result is completely futile?
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
Not even a dead cat that.
A dead cat has more personality/policies/charisma than SKS though TBF
Shame you didn’t elect a dead cat instead of Corbyn then. You might not be in this mess,
As I said answers including yeah but Corbyn are completely irrelevant
Except we cannot decide to just exclude major factors if we do not like them. Isn't that exactly the behaviour the government is being criticised for right now in trying to explain away various problems?
Major factor in Labs inability to win in 2024 is their bloody useless nonentity of a leader.
Corbyn was 12% behind in 2019, Starmer is 4% behind tonight
22 months after the 2017 GE, ie where we are now, Corbyn was 9% ahead
22 months after the 2017 GE was April 2019 when Labour were polling 33% under Corbyn with Opinium ie below the 35% they are polling with Starmer.
The only reason they were ahead was Farage's BXP was on 17% to 26% for May's Tories, as soon as Boris took over the BXP vote shifted back to the Tories again
They led 36-29 at this stage with Opinium
He will defend the indefensible to the end
He does not know anything else
There is nothing indefensible about it, it is completely idiotic to say Corbyn had a lead on just 33% of the vote when Farage was in double figures and completely splitting the Tory vote under May's leadership.
If Boris had not won back those Tory votes lost to the BXP then Corbyn may indeed have become PM under FPTP on just a third of the vote.
Tonight's homework assignment for @HYUFD -- Calculate the percentage of mid-term* opinion polls which have the vote shares for the two leading parties within the margin of error of the result at the subsequent general election, for all UK general elections since the [Falklands] War.
* Here, mid-term is defined as being more than nine months before, or after, a general election.
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
The new boundaries will not be as pro Tory as they would be under say Cameron as most of the net gains will be in London and the South East where Boris is relatively less popular than the RedWall
The electoral map is very different to when Cameron was PM.
Mansfield 2015 result under Cameron - Labour majority 5,315
Mansfield 2019 result under Johnson - Conservative majority 16,306
The Tories have not gained a single seat in London and the SE however that Cameron did not win.
Wow. That's quite some fact. Not one I was aware of. Cheers.
What will it take to make you understand that running mid term polls through electoral calculus then drawing conclusions from the result is completely futile?
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
On tonight's evidence you would be right. I am shocked there has been no temporary declne in the Conservatives fortunes after the chaos of the last week, particularly as the Blair Government suffered mightily under similar circumstances.
I didn't expect much from the tail end of the Labour Party Conference as it was, like you suggested earlier in the week, overshadowed by far more significant news.
Corbyn has damaged Labour's brand for years to come. Whatever BJO may think, the problem is not the leader, it is the Party's Corbyn era brand. If the leader were the lovechild of Mother Theresa and Nelson Mandela they wouldn't get a look in either.
Starmer did OK this week, your sneering at "Labour's self congratulatory conference" is disingenuous and far from reality, as demonstrated by Laura Pidcock's non-self congratulatory analysis . Mind you the members fighting like rats in a sack isn't a good look.
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
On tonight's evidence you would be right. I am shocked there has been no temporary declne in the Conservatives fortunes after the chaos of the last week, particularly as the Blair Government suffered mightily under similar circumstances.
I didn't expect much from the tail end of the Labour Party Conference as it was, like you suggested earlier in the week, overshadowed by far more significant news.
Corbyn has damaged Labour's brand for years to come. Whatever BJO may think, the problem is not the leader, it is the Party's Corbyn era brand. If the leader were the lovechild of Mother Theresa and Nelson Mandela they wouldn't get a look in either.
Starmer did OK this week, your sneering at "Labour's self congratulatory conference" is disingenuous and far from reality, as demonstrated by Laura Pidcock's non-self congratulatory analysis . Mind you the members fighting like rats in a sack isn't a good look.
BiB - that’s because the government were - rightly or wrongly - seen as part of the problem given the rise in fuel duty.
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
The new boundaries will not be as pro Tory as they would be under say Cameron as most of the net gains will be in London and the South East where Boris is relatively less popular than the RedWall
The electoral map is very different to when Cameron was PM.
Mansfield 2015 result under Cameron - Labour majority 5,315
Mansfield 2019 result under Johnson - Conservative majority 16,306
The Tories have not gained a single seat in London and the SE however that Cameron did not win.
Wow. That's quite some fact. Not one I was aware of. Cheers.
Correction, there was one, Carshalton and Wallington but still the Tories have lost a net 10 seats in London and SE at least since 2015 (including Chesham and Amersham), despite Boris' gains in the redwall
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
What will it take to make you understand that running mid term polls through electoral calculus then drawing conclusions from the result is completely futile?
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
The new boundaries will not be as pro Tory as they would be under say Cameron as most of the net gains will be in London and the South East where Boris is relatively less popular than the RedWall
The electoral map is very different to when Cameron was PM.
Mansfield 2015 result under Cameron - Labour majority 5,315
Mansfield 2019 result under Johnson - Conservative majority 16,306
The Tories have not gained a single seat in London and the SE however that Cameron did not win.
Wow. That's quite some fact. Not one I was aware of. Cheers.
Correction, there was one, Carshalton and Wallington but still they have lost 10 seats in London and SE at least since 2015 (including Chesham and Amersham) with only 1 gain
Carshalton and Wallington is almost like a Red Wall seat that's somehow found itself transported to SW London.
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
The new boundaries will not be as pro Tory as they would be under say Cameron as most of the net gains will be in London and the South East where Boris is relatively less popular than the RedWall
The electoral map is very different to when Cameron was PM.
Mansfield 2015 result under Cameron - Labour majority 5,315
Mansfield 2019 result under Johnson - Conservative majority 16,306
The Tories have not gained a single seat in London and the SE however that Cameron did not win.
Wow. That's quite some fact. Not one I was aware of. Cheers.
Correction, there was one, Carshalton and Wallington but still they have lost 10 seats in London and SE at least since 2015 (including Chesham and Amersham) with only 1 gain
Carshalton and Wallington is almost like a Red Wall seat that's somehow found itself transported to SW London.
Yes one of only a handful of London Leave voting seats
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
On tonight's evidence you would be right. I am shocked there has been no temporary declne in the Conservatives fortunes after the chaos of the last week, particularly as the Blair Government suffered mightily under similar circumstances.
I didn't expect much from the tail end of the Labour Party Conference as it was, like you suggested earlier in the week, overshadowed by far more significant news.
Corbyn has damaged Labour's brand for years to come. Whatever BJO may think, the problem is not the leader, it is the Party's Corbyn era brand. If the leader were the lovechild of Mother Theresa and Nelson Mandela they wouldn't get a look in either.
Starmer did OK this week, your sneering at "Labour's self congratulatory conference" is disingenuous and far from reality, as demonstrated by Laura Pidcock's non-self congratulatory analysis . Mind you the members fighting like rats in a sack isn't a good look.
Corbyn has damaged Labour's brand for years to come. Whatever BJO may think, the problem is not the leader, it is the Party's Corbyn era brand
Pete is incapable of admitting SKS is a useless nonentity and is happy to write off 2024 as Corbyns 3rd defeat
Sad really shows the intellectual bankruptcy of Centrists TBH
Their problem to own not mine. Get me the popcorn.
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Pointless even bothering to run those numbers
If you're going to bother you may as well do it properly and run the numbers for the bounds of the uncertainty range, since it makes no sense to ignore the margin of error on the poll. So we should at least also run the scenario of Con:Lab 37:37 and 41:33 so that we have a complete sense of the range of outcomes indicated by this poll.
Those vote shares would give seat splits of Con - Lab: 294 - 271 to 342 - 223 Which is not quite as wide a range as I was expecting, but still includes a large chunk of Conservative majority as being consistent with the opinion poll.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
I can't imagine how much dane geld the DUP would demand for NI in exchange for supporting the guy who sold them down the river in 2019.
Let’s say 30% of the voting country is made up of Leave voters that REALLY care about Leave. Still. And they won’t forgive anyone that tried to do a Trump insurrection on a legal vote. They won’t forgive ‘2nd vote’ Starmer.
That’s a big floor for the Tories, as every other major party - LDs, Greens, SNP - is also Remainery.
Add in 5% of voters who are just uber-loyally Tory and 5% who can’t forget Corbyn and that’s a ~40% floor for the Tories. Enormous. So no Labour leader will ever prosper against that - not until Brexit is so cemented into place we all forget it, and Labour has a leader that is not associated with Remain (or Corbyn!)
That implies someone *like* Burnham (not necessarily him) could win for Labour in the next GE but one
What will it take to make you understand that running mid term polls through electoral calculus then drawing conclusions from the result is completely futile?
He didn’t!
He thinks SKS will lose as badly as (or worse than) Corbyn in 2024 - nearly three years left to find out!
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
I can't imagine how much dane geld the DUP would demand for NI in exchange for supporting the guy who sold them down the river in 2019.
That and they will not return to the Stormont Executive either unless Frost can remove the Irish Sea border
Let’s say 30% of the voting country is made up of Leave voters that REALLY care about Leave. Still. And they won’t forgive anyone that tried to do a Trump insurrection on a legal vote. They won’t forgive ‘2nd vote’ Starmer.
That’s a big floor for the Tories, as every other major party - LDs, Greens, SNP - is also Remainery.
Add in 5% of voters who are just uber-loyally Tory and 5% who can’t forget Corbyn and that’s a ~40% floor for the Tories. Enormous. So no Labour leader will ever prosper against that - not until Brexit is so cemented into place we all forget it, and Labour has a leader that is not associated with Remain (or Corbyn!)
That implies someone *like* Burnham (not necessarily him) could win for Labour in the next GE but one
It's pointless doing "maths" on numbers plucked from thin air.
I'm a moderate Labour supporter. But I'm with BJO. The issue with SKS is he just isn't good at the politics thing. Meanwhile. Brexit remains the religious belief of 40% of the country. Nothing bad can be laid at its noodly appendage. It must be not happening. Or happening everywhere else. Or happening because of the EU. Or Remoaners. Or plague. Evil spirits, divine intervention and heretics in other words. For these two reasons we have at least seven more years of this PM if he wants it.
Let’s say 30% of the voting country is made up of Leave voters that REALLY care about Leave. Still. And they won’t forgive anyone that tried to do a Trump insurrection on a legal vote. They won’t forgive ‘2nd vote’ Starmer.
That’s a big floor for the Tories, as every other major party - LDs, Greens, SNP - is also Remainery.
Add in 5% of voters who are just uber-loyally Tory and 5% who can’t forget Corbyn and that’s a ~40% floor for the Tories. Enormous. So no Labour leader will ever prosper against that - not until Brexit is so cemented into place we all forget it, and Labour has a leader that is not associated with Remain (or Corbyn!)
That implies someone *like* Burnham (not necessarily him) could win for Labour in the next GE but one
Yes but Starmer does not need to win a majority or even most seats to become PM, just enough seats from the Tories to be able to form a government with SNP/PC/SDLP and LD and Green support
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He might well be in place when the voters finally tire of Johnson and decide it is time for a change.
Not sure that counts as offering something politically, but it does count as more lucky than Starmer.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
2019 defeat = yeah because of Corbyn.
2024 is the latest prize And 2019 was mainly down to desire for Brexit and Boris
SKS policy on BREXIT 2nd Referendum was a disaster on the doorstep
Corbyn was leader in 2019, so ultimately it was Corbyn's policy.
Indeed without it, would have lost a lot more votes to LD and Greens.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He has more charisma, he is Northern not North London and he did not push for EUref2 like Starmer did despite both backing Remain
I'm a moderate Labour supporter. But I'm with BJO. The issue with SKS is he just isn't good at the politics thing. Meanwhile. Brexit remains the religious belief of 40% of the country. Nothing bad can be laid at its noodly appendage. It must be not happening. Or happening everywhere else. Or happening because of the EU. Or Remoaners. Evil spirits and heretics in other words. For these two reasons we have at least seven more years of this PM if he wants it.
The problem is, those that want to blame Brexit for whatever need to be specific about what they’d do to solve it. And then they need to say why any negative consequences of those decisions are a price worth paying.
Until remainers get to that point, they’ll continue to be ignored by large parts of the electorate.
Let’s say 30% of the voting country is made up of Leave voters that REALLY care about Leave. Still. And they won’t forgive anyone that tried to do a Trump insurrection on a legal vote. They won’t forgive ‘2nd vote’ Starmer.
That’s a big floor for the Tories, as every other major party - LDs, Greens, SNP - is also Remainery.
Add in 5% of voters who are just uber-loyally Tory and 5% who can’t forget Corbyn and that’s a ~40% floor for the Tories. Enormous. So no Labour leader will ever prosper against that - not until Brexit is so cemented into place we all forget it, and Labour has a leader that is not associated with Remain (or Corbyn!)
That implies someone *like* Burnham (not necessarily him) could win for Labour in the next GE but one
I expect some in the inner sanctums of Labour Party are already planning for losing next time and thinking about 2028.
I'm a moderate Labour supporter. But I'm with BJO. The issue with SKS is he just isn't good at the politics thing. Meanwhile. Brexit remains the religious belief of 40% of the country. Nothing bad can be laid at its noodly appendage. It must be not happening. Or happening everywhere else. Or happening because of the EU. Or Remoaners. Evil spirits and heretics in other words. For these two reasons we have at least seven more years of this PM if he wants it.
The problem is, those that want to blame Brexit for whatever need to be specific about what they’d do to solve it. And then they need to say why any negative consequences of those decisions are a price worth paying.
Until remainers get to that point, they’ll continue to be ignored by large parts of the electorate.
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
It’s a midterm poll AFTER a Labour Conference and DURING a dramatic fuel shortage and blah blah blah
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
It’s a midterm poll AFTER a Labour Conference and DURING a dramatic fuel shortage and blah blah blah
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
At six consecutive elections the Tories have increased their vote share.
There has to be a slim but very real possibility that extends to a seventh election and an increased majority next time.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
It’s a midterm poll AFTER a Labour Conference and DURING a dramatic fuel shortage and blah blah blah
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
Yes. Brexit is a religion and Boris is the Pope. Utterly infallible to believers.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
He wasn't when he was MP for Leigh. He was pretty damned dreadful in fact.
[Although credit to him for what he did with the Justice for the 96 campaign]
Let’s say 30% of the voting country is made up of Leave voters that REALLY care about Leave. Still. And they won’t forgive anyone that tried to do a Trump insurrection on a legal vote. They won’t forgive ‘2nd vote’ Starmer.
That’s a big floor for the Tories, as every other major party - LDs, Greens, SNP - is also Remainery.
Add in 5% of voters who are just uber-loyally Tory and 5% who can’t forget Corbyn and that’s a ~40% floor for the Tories. Enormous. So no Labour leader will ever prosper against that - not until Brexit is so cemented into place we all forget it, and Labour has a leader that is not associated with Remain (or Corbyn!)
That implies someone *like* Burnham (not necessarily him) could win for Labour in the next GE but one
It's pointless doing "maths" on numbers plucked from thin air.
Mate, this is politicalbetting. This is precisely what we DO
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
He wasn't when he was MP for Leigh. He was pretty damned dreadful in fact.
[Although credit to him for what he did with the Justice for the 96 campaign]
He reminds me of one of the human puppets on the Muppet show or Sesame St
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
It’s a midterm poll AFTER a Labour Conference and DURING a dramatic fuel shortage and blah blah blah
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
It’s a midterm poll AFTER a Labour Conference and DURING a dramatic fuel shortage and blah blah blah
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
Mail on Sunday: three Labour MPs considering defecting to the Conservatives.
Let the hunt begin.
I can think of about 10 Labour MPs who are not in the "totally impossible to imagine defecting to the Tories" category.
Assuming red wall MPs with dwindling majorities and seeing how the wind is blowing? Johnson would approve as his hero Winston swapped parties more often than underpants.
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
Reasonable polling can conceal that things are not as good as they appear (as per my favourite example, early 2019 polling for TMay), and things have been far from normal for Keir since he took over, but I don't think it's wrong to still think he should have been doing better by now. It's recoverable still, but it's clearly not yet actually recovered.
I find him more appealing than most people seem to, but even so, at the moment Boris is still more of a draw than a repellant it seems.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
He wasn't when he was MP for Leigh. He was pretty damned dreadful in fact.
[Although credit to him for what he did with the Justice for the 96 campaign]
Did you live in Leigh at the time? How did he carry every ward there last Spring? As well as every single other one in Greater Manchester by being "pretty damn dreadful"?
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
Sure, apart from winning Leadership elections. He has had two cracks at it as I recall.
"On our summer walk, he admitted he had voted Starmer for the leadership, rather than Lisa Nandy, his fellow Wigan MP. “Keir is a brilliant man. The fact he was a former DPP [director of public prosecutions], and came to work in my shadow Home Office team with no airs and graces says a lot about Keir Starmer,” he says. It probably suits Starmer to have Burnham leading from the heart, while he leads from the head. The two complement each other, often saying the same thing but in very different ways."
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
He wasn't when he was MP for Leigh. He was pretty damned dreadful in fact.
[Although credit to him for what he did with the Justice for the 96 campaign]
Burnham's majority in Leigh was 14,096 in 2015, that fell to 9,554 when Jo Platt was Labour's new candidate, in 2019 the Tories won Leigh with a majority of 1,965
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
It’s a midterm poll AFTER a Labour Conference and DURING a dramatic fuel shortage and blah blah blah
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
If Sturgeon falls and the SNP finally crumble, Boris will be cemented in place. No way would Labour be the sole beneficiary of such a collapse. The Tories would win a handful more seats at least.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
Sure, apart from winning Leadership elections. He has had two cracks at it as I recall.
"On our summer walk, he admitted he had voted Starmer for the leadership, rather than Lisa Nandy, his fellow Wigan MP. “Keir is a brilliant man. The fact he was a former DPP [director of public prosecutions], and came to work in my shadow Home Office team with no airs and graces says a lot about Keir Starmer,” he says. It probably suits Starmer to have Burnham leading from the heart, while he leads from the head. The two complement each other, often saying the same thing but in very different ways."
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
Reasonable polling can conceal that things are not as good as they appear (as per my favourite example, early 2019 polling for TMay), and things have been far from normal for Keir since he took over, but I don't think it's wrong to still think he should have been doing better by now. It's recoverable still, but it's clearly not yet actually recovered.
I find him more appealing than most people seem to, but even so, at the moment Boris is still more of a draw than a repellant it seems.
I think it's the perceived absence of positive reasons to vote Labour. Keir is doing fine in the "Hey, I could live with him as PM" stakes, but not at actually making people feel they are keen to vote for him. By contrast, Corbyn attracted loads of people who thought he was great and couldn't wait to vote for him, but a solid bloc of 50% of the voters who really didn't like what they read about him at all. To get into power, the former is probably still the better starting point, though not ideal.
I'm with rottenborough in being skeptical of any reporting of defections, but it would be jolly exciting. One of the interesting thing about the 2017-19 parliament was the unusual amount of defections, expulsions and so forth.
But hasn't it been a long time since someone went from one of the big two to another of the big two? Usuallly there's a period of 'Independent' before someone even goes to the LDs (though I recall Lee, because he physically crossed the floor).
How long since someone crossed from Lab to Con?
Edit: Wiki suggests 1977(!) since someone went straight from Lab to Con - Reg Prentice
Con to Lab 2007, Quentin Davies, with others in 2005 and 1999.
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
With Opinium tonight it would be another hung parliament, Boris would be re elected but only if he can persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
It’s a midterm poll AFTER a Labour Conference and DURING a dramatic fuel shortage and blah blah blah
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
If Sturgeon falls and the SNP finally crumble, Boris will be cemented in place. No way would Labour be the sole beneficiary of such a collapse. The Tories would win a handful more seats at least.
We've been all waiting a long time for the SNP to fall. Doesn’t seem imminent to me.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
Sure, apart from winning Leadership elections. He has had two cracks at it as I recall.
"On our summer walk, he admitted he had voted Starmer for the leadership, rather than Lisa Nandy, his fellow Wigan MP. “Keir is a brilliant man. The fact he was a former DPP [director of public prosecutions], and came to work in my shadow Home Office team with no airs and graces says a lot about Keir Starmer,” he says. It probably suits Starmer to have Burnham leading from the heart, while he leads from the head. The two complement each other, often saying the same thing but in very different ways."
@bigjohnowls just can't forgive Starmer for winning the leadership.
Or maybe BJO can’t forgive Starmer for winning the leadership - but then being a really mediocre leader, in some ways worse than Corbyn (less charisma etc)
My guess is Labour needs a leader entirely unassociated with Brexit (either way). Starmer is badly tainted by the ‘people’s vote’ 2nd referendum wankathon of anti-democracy. Is Burnham that man? I dunno. But that’s the man/woman required. A leader than can say ‘Brexit’ without a wince of distaste - a wince which is still visible on Starmer’s face
Or we just need so much time to pass, brexit no longer matters, or has any cultural impact
I'm with rottenborough in being skeptical of any reporting of defections, but it would be jolly exciting. One of the interesting thing about the 2017-19 parliament was the unusual amount of defections, expulsions and so forth.
But hasn't it been a long time since someone went from one of the big two to another of the big two? Usuallly there's a period of 'Independent' before someone even goes to the LDs (though I recall Lee, because he physically crossed the floor).
How long since someone crossed from Lab to Con?
Edit: Wiki suggests 1977(!) since someone went straight from Lab to Con - Reg Prentice
Con to Lab 2007, Quentin Davies, with others in 2005 and 1999.
Looking forward to Angela's comments if that happens.
Mail on Sunday: three Labour MPs considering defecting to the Conservatives.
Let the hunt begin.
I suspect that "considering" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
It took the mass ructions of 2017-2019 to shake lose even a handful from their parties. What in the last, say, 6-12 months has been so transformative as to get some to consider jumping now when they hadn't previously?
BJO’s critique of Kir Royale is clearly emotional, but it is also quite compelling. Starmer SHOULD be doing miles better. Why can’t he manage a sustained poll lead? Is it his tediousness? Or his Remoanerness?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
Reasonable polling can conceal that things are not as good as they appear (as per my favourite example, early 2019 polling for TMay), and things have been far from normal for Keir since he took over, but I don't think it's wrong to still think he should have been doing better by now. It's recoverable still, but it's clearly not yet actually recovered.
I find him more appealing than most people seem to, but even so, at the moment Boris is still more of a draw than a repellant it seems.
I think it's the perceived absence of positive reasons to vote Labour. Keir is doing fine in the "Hey, I could live with him as PM" stakes, but not at actually making people feel they are keen to vote for him. By contrast, Corbyn attracted loads of people who thought he was great and couldn't wait to vote for him, but a solid bloc of 50% of the voters who really didn't like what they read about him at all. To get into power, the former is probably still the better starting point, though not ideal.
When the scenery totally collapses over the economy in the next year or two, then "hey I could live with him being PM" might be enough.
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
The new boundaries will not be as pro Tory as they would be under say Cameron as most of the net gains will be in London and the South East where Boris is relatively less popular than the RedWall
The electoral map is very different to when Cameron was PM.
Mansfield 2015 result under Cameron - Labour majority 5,315
Mansfield 2019 result under Johnson - Conservative majority 16,306
The Tories have not gained a single seat in London and the SE however that Cameron did not win.
Wow. That's quite some fact. Not one I was aware of. Cheers.
Correction, there was one, Carshalton and Wallington but still they have lost 10 seats in London and SE at least since 2015 (including Chesham and Amersham) with only 1 gain
Carshalton and Wallington is almost like a Red Wall seat that's somehow found itself transported to SW London.
Probably the plot of an upcoming Doctor Who episode.
So Boris could stay PM but he would need to persuade Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP to back the Tories again
Mid-term poll after Labour's self-congratulatory conference and petrol pumps run dry - and still Labour is behind.
With new boundaries to come to make things worse.
The Tories will still be in power, without need of a coalition, after 2024. With good reason.
On tonight's evidence you would be right. I am shocked there has been no temporary declne in the Conservatives fortunes after the chaos of the last week, particularly as the Blair Government suffered mightily under similar circumstances.
I didn't expect much from the tail end of the Labour Party Conference as it was, like you suggested earlier in the week, overshadowed by far more significant news.
Corbyn has damaged Labour's brand for years to come. Whatever BJO may think, the problem is not the leader, it is the Party's Corbyn era brand. If the leader were the lovechild of Mother Theresa and Nelson Mandela they wouldn't get a look in either.
Starmer did OK this week, your sneering at "Labour's self congratulatory conference" is disingenuous and far from reality, as demonstrated by Laura Pidcock's non-self congratulatory analysis . Mind you the members fighting like rats in a sack isn't a good look.
My "self-congratulatory" reference was to the tone coming from the New Labour wing - who thought they had a great conference.
I'm really astonished at the idea of Labour MPs plural considering joining the Tories. Presumably more Red Wall seats. If so, there must be grave worries the Labour Party can't be fixed.
Regarding the Conference bounce is it not a little odd to have one which appears to be -2 points. Could it be the commentariat have got it wrong again?
And any response featuring "yeah but Corbyn" is completely irrelevant
Get KotN a seat
Oddly, I’m watching Game of Thrones and Rob Stark has just got it.
To which Tywin Lannister has said, ‘Let the North remember what happens when they March against the south.’
I don’t think Burnham is so foolish. Starmer is not the problem. Labour is the problem. Burnham, if he wants to win (and if I’m honest I don’t think he’s up to being leader) needs to let Starmer sort matters out.
He’s made a good start. He’s got rid of Corbyn - and his supporters…
"Made a good start" my arse.
He has lost 100's of seats in LE 2021 even compared to the aforesaid disaster
He lost Hartlepool that even the aforesaid held
His personal ratings have tanked consistently compared to a year ago
He has had 1 poll lead out of the last 70
He has turned the Party into a financial basket case on the verge of bankruptcy
He has made over one third of staff redundant
He has failed to hold the Govt to account for anything
He has broken every single promise from his leadership campaign
He has deliberately caused division with members and Unions
He is going down like a dockside whore
but yeah "good start"!!
Can you really conceive of Corbyn winning an election if he were leader again? Or even avoiding a humiliation?
No but I could under Andy Burnham
"yeah but Corbyn" answers are not going to get SKS elected either
Burnham is grossly overrated. To rate him at all is to overrate him
Apart from not being Starmer, what does Burnham offer that Starmer doesn't? Burnham is far more New Labour, indeed positively Blairite, and was unwilling to be on the team with Cotbyn.
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
He's good at that politics business.
He wasn't when he was MP for Leigh. He was pretty damned dreadful in fact.
[Although credit to him for what he did with the Justice for the 96 campaign]
Did you live in Leigh at the time? How did he carry every ward there last Spring? As well as every single other one in Greater Manchester by being "pretty damn dreadful"?
I lived in the constituency next to Leigh at the time at the time.
Burnham's record as an MP was pretty dreadful, as were his "leadership" campaigns.
It wasn't until I was looking at the wiki list of MPs switching parties that I remembered a) there are 5 Tories currently with the whip suspended, and b) that Alba now have two MPs.
Comments
Mansfield 2015 result under Cameron - Labour majority 5,315
Mansfield 2019 result under Johnson - Conservative majority 16,306
If Boris had not won back those Tory votes lost to the BXP then Corbyn may indeed have become PM under FPTP on just a third of the vote.
It is simple facts
And as a Tory voter you are to blame for empty pumps
But yes, not a good poll!
The Tories have not gained a single seat in London and the SE however that Cameron did not win apart from Carshalton and Wallington. So yes Boris did well to win the redwall but the boundary changes will not help him much as they will see a net shift in seats from the North and Midlands and Wales to London and the SE
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
7m
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 35% (-2)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-)
via
@OpiniumResearch
, 29 Sep - 01 Oct
Chgs. w/ 16 Sep
I didn't expect much from the tail end of the Labour Party Conference as it was, like you suggested earlier in the week, overshadowed by far more significant news.
Corbyn has damaged Labour's brand for years to come. Whatever BJO may think, the problem is not the leader, it is the Party's Corbyn era brand. If the leader were the lovechild of Mother Theresa and Nelson Mandela they wouldn't get a look in either.
Starmer did OK this week, your sneering at "Labour's self congratulatory conference" is disingenuous and far from reality, as demonstrated by Laura Pidcock's non-self congratulatory analysis . Mind you the members fighting like rats in a sack isn't a good look.
All future electoral disasters (for any UK party) will be compared with 2019.
--
Calculate the percentage of mid-term* opinion polls which have the vote shares for the two leading parties within the margin of error of the result at the subsequent general election, for all UK general elections since the [Falklands] War.
* Here, mid-term is defined as being more than nine months before, or after, a general election.
So since Corbyn made this mess, why wouldn't you chip in?
Both?
Or maybe at this stage Brexiteer Boris is just unbeatable. The Tories in England are like the SNP in Scotland. In which case Labour are fucked for another decade
Pete is incapable of admitting SKS is a useless nonentity and is happy to write off 2024 as Corbyns 3rd defeat
Sad really shows the intellectual bankruptcy of Centrists TBH
Their problem to own not mine. Get me the popcorn.
Yes the Tories will win another majority in England, they would not win another majority in the UK though if Opinium is right
Those vote shares would give seat splits of Con - Lab:
294 - 271 to 342 - 223
Which is not quite as wide a range as I was expecting, but still includes a large chunk of Conservative majority as being consistent with the opinion poll.
Let’s say 30% of the voting country is made up of Leave voters that REALLY care about Leave. Still. And they won’t forgive anyone that tried to do a Trump insurrection on a legal vote. They won’t forgive ‘2nd vote’ Starmer.
That’s a big floor for the Tories, as every other major party - LDs, Greens, SNP - is also Remainery.
Add in 5% of voters who are just uber-loyally Tory and 5% who can’t forget Corbyn and that’s a ~40% floor for the Tories. Enormous. So no Labour leader will ever prosper against that - not until Brexit is so cemented into place we all forget it, and Labour has a leader that is not associated with Remain (or Corbyn!)
That implies someone *like* Burnham (not necessarily him) could win for Labour in the next GE but one
Yeh right.
Wes Streeting?
And the £2m will be nowhere near enough when expelled members sue the asses off Evans and Starmer for wrongful processes.
On the horizon is also a challenge fro Jezza methinks
Sure, he can do empathy with his soft brown eyes and long lashes, but politically what does he offer different to Starmer?
Meanwhile. Brexit remains the religious belief of 40% of the country. Nothing bad can be laid at its noodly appendage.
It must be not happening. Or happening everywhere else. Or happening because of the EU. Or Remoaners. Or plague.
Evil spirits, divine intervention and heretics in other words.
For these two reasons we have at least seven more years of this PM if he wants it.
Not sure that counts as offering something politically, but it does count as more lucky than Starmer.
Until remainers get to that point, they’ll continue to be ignored by large parts of the electorate.
Richard Burgon
John McDonnell
Rebecca Long-Bailey
Lab 35%
Lib dem 8%
SNP 6%
Green 6%
Plaid 1%
Others 5% = 100%
Might be a net positive for the Cabinet's ability.
It’s a calamitously bad poll for Labour. Boris is an election winning machine, swing back is a thing, I’d say on this poll Boris is heading for another rather comfortable majority in 23-24
There was a fascinating Times analysis last week of 2019 Tory voters. Overwhelmingly they still support Boris, they reckon he’s doing a decent job, they often say Brexit is going badly - but they blame that on others: Remainers, the French, covid, china, anyone. Not Boris.
The 2019 Tories now have a tribal identity - like SNP voters - and they will stick with it
When Sturgeon falls the SNP might finally crumble. Likewise Boris/Tories
There has to be a slim but very real possibility that extends to a seventh election and an increased majority next time.
Utterly infallible to believers.
The useless nonentity Party
[Although credit to him for what he did with the Justice for the 96 campaign]
I find him more appealing than most people seem to, but even so, at the moment Boris is still more of a draw than a repellant it seems.
How did he carry every ward there last Spring? As well as every single other one in Greater Manchester by being "pretty damn dreadful"?
"On our summer walk, he admitted he had voted Starmer for the leadership, rather than Lisa Nandy, his fellow Wigan MP. “Keir is a brilliant man. The fact he was a former DPP [director of public prosecutions], and came to work in my shadow Home Office team with no airs and graces says a lot about Keir Starmer,” he says. It probably suits Starmer to have Burnham leading from the heart, while he leads from the head. The two complement each other, often saying the same thing but in very different ways."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/14/andy-burnham-the-real-me-comes-out-when-im-angry
@bigjohnowls just can't forgive Starmer for winning the leadership.
No Leigh MP has "fellow Wigan" MP's.
But hasn't it been a long time since someone went from one of the big two to another of the big two? Usuallly there's a period of 'Independent' before someone even goes to the LDs (though I recall Lee, because he physically crossed the floor).
How long since someone crossed from Lab to Con?
Edit: Wiki suggests 1977(!) since someone went straight from Lab to Con - Reg Prentice
Con to Lab 2007, Quentin Davies, with others in 2005 and 1999.
My guess is Labour needs a leader entirely unassociated with Brexit (either way). Starmer is badly tainted by the ‘people’s vote’ 2nd referendum wankathon of anti-democracy. Is Burnham that man? I dunno. But that’s the man/woman required. A leader than can say ‘Brexit’ without a wince of distaste - a wince which is still visible on Starmer’s face
Or we just need so much time to pass, brexit no longer matters, or has any cultural impact
I'm really astonished at the idea of Labour MPs plural considering joining the Tories. Presumably more Red Wall seats. If so, there must be grave worries the Labour Party can't be fixed.
Burnham's record as an MP was pretty dreadful, as were his "leadership" campaigns.