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Starmer’s big speech barely moves the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
Starmer’s big speech barely moves the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
So after eighteen months in the job Starmer has had his first chance to address his party. I was quite surprised by the heckling which he dealt with well and possibly encouraged most in the audience to be even more enthusiastic about what he was saying. This was the assessment of the Guardian’s Zoe Williams:
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Last time I remember a leader's speech moving the betting market was Dave in 2007.
To all those complaining about the length of Starmer's speech.
You're getting to hear a top lawyer speak for 90 mins for FREE and you're complaining.
You lot don't know how lucky you are.
Am I the only one who doesn't get this?
You cant really say "I want working class people to get the life chances I got as a youngster", whilst forbidding them - so best to keep schtum
Any pro-mask people on here want to defend them?
Not surprised it's not had much effect, one of the few things people don't overreact about for some reason.
Test/proof of vaccination etc beforehand.
https://order-order.com/2021/09/27/labour-abandons-conference-vaccine-passes-due-to-bad-weather/
As of this morning, security is no longer checking for passes, instead conducting random spot checks on those already in the venue – long after attendees could have spread Covid around the conference centre.
How does someone the vaccinated are supposedly at risk of infecting being negative before they put them at risk meant to reduce the risk of infecting them? Almost exclusively those who are negative for the virus will be the ones who get infected by it.
But yes, looks like shithousery to me...
Absolutely NSFW or if you have kids about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7PoQ7HLaq8
The conference seemed to do so:
https://labour.org.uk/conference/faqs/#COVID
Might move the polls though, which would move the markets I guess
Are you saying that the vaccinated can't infect the unvaccinated who have tested negative?
This would help our exporters at the Channel too, imports are fine as we don't check them.
It may be a mistake to blame fuel crisis for poll movement and say it’s short term, if Labour deal with it lexit glass ceiling in polls then removing the Tory majority at next election could be very much on.
The two Republican and two Democratic commissioners issued competing maps for the state’s 10 U.S. House districts — the starting point for negotiations as they face a Nov. 15 deadline to come to final agreement.
As they did with legislative maps proposed last week, the Republican commissioners, Joe Fain and Paul Graves, are aggressively pushing for more favorable competitive boundaries for the GOP, which now holds three of the state’s 10 House seats.
The Democratic commissioners, April Sims and Brady Piñero Walkinshaw, proposed maps that would more likely maintain the status quo partisan split, and said they’re hewing to legal requirements including fair representation and uniting communities of interest.
Three of the four commissioners must agree on a final legislative map and congressional map by the Nov. 15 deadline [or] the state Supreme Court will take over and draw the maps.
Battle for 8th District
The Republican proposals would make major shifts to the swing 8th Congressional District, now represented by U.S. Rep. Kim Schrier, the Sammamish pediatrician who flipped the seat away from Republicans in 2018, defeating Republican Dino Rossi in one of the nation’s most expensive congressional races. . . .
Both Graves’ and Fain’s plans would draw Schrier out of her district. . . . Graves’ plan also would push Democratic Suzan DelBene, D-Medina, out of the 1st Congressional District. . . .
Walkinshaw predicted the Republican plans, if adopted, would be shredded by courts, and said he wrote his own proposal with legal principles in mind, so that it would be looked on favorably by the state Supreme Court if the two sides are unable to reach a compromise. . . .
Under state law, the electoral districts must be as equal in population as possible — about 770,000 people for each congressional district — and aren’t supposed to be gerrymandered to favor any party or discriminate against any group. They’re supposed to avoid dividing cities and other political subdivisions as much as possible. The law also says maps should “provide fair and effective representation” and “encourage electoral competition.” . . .
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/fight-looms-over-2022-midterms-as-democrats-and-republicans-propose-dueling-washington-congressional-maps/
To see proposed congressional AND legislative redistricting proposals:
https://www.redistricting.wa.gov/
He should have gone the full Bill Hicks
https://youtube.com/watch?v=AetJWKjVqOI (very NSFW).
You're mitigating against the risk of the unvaccinated infecting others (since they've tested negative) but you've not remotely adjusted the risk of the vaccinated infecting others.
So the vaccinated wearing masks normally is pure theatre isn't it?
My take away from the heckling: SKS a fine and decent man; like most people uncomfortable outside his comfort zone; would make a decent honourable PM; but whatever you do don't let his party anywhere near power.
Of course lines for both districts ARE altered, largely due to fact that 3rd has grown in population relative to the rest of the state, while the 4th has declined in relative terms. However, proposed changes to both districts are minimal - certainly compared to situation re: 8th CD.
As bad as that then.
This certainly does not feel like Blair in 1994. Kinnock in 1989?
We know that the risk of a double vaxxed individual catching covid is markedly reduced, and when they do the condition is both shorter in duration and less severe. Together this is probably a reduction of infectivity of perhaps 80%, a figure comparable or better than masking.
Last time I was there I nearly incited a riot after describing the local food as tasting like deep fried shavings from a ped egg.
Very thoughtlessly I made myself a self service Costa Hot Chocolate before I left the shop. It only dawned on me as I was walking out how annoying that must be for the 50 odd cars behind me... so I tried to cover up the cup!
That's what happens when six billion doses of Covid vaccine are given in about six months.
Labour continue with this Lexit dialogue that is main take out from this conference, much of that Red wall in north and midlands can easily come crashing back.
Labour will need that 24 election though, such a slow start on this messaging 22 or even 23 will come much too soon.
oregonlive.com - Oregon’s redistricting maps official, after lawmakers pass them, Gov. Kate Brown signs off
SALEM — Oregon Democrats on Monday passed plans for new congressional and legislative districts on mostly party line votes, after House Republicans returned to the Capitol to provide the quorum necessary for Democrats to conduct business.
In the House, debate lasted several hours as Democrats listed the many ways their electoral lines met the state constitution and laws and Republicans railed against the political maps and accused Democrats of gerrymandering.
The Senate, which passed congressional and legislative district plans a week ago along party lines, met relatively briefly to repass the congressional plan after it was amended by Democrats in an attempt to secure some Republican support.
Gov. Kate Brown, a Democrat, then signed both bills into law hours before the midnight deadline set by the Oregon Supreme Court earlier this year when it gave state officials more time to complete redistricting due to U.S. Census Bureau delays. . . .
Democrats’ new congressional district plan, which they offered to Republicans late last week, would create three extremely safe Democratic seats, one extra safe Republican seat, one seat that tilts in Democrats’ favor and one seat that is a virtual 50-50 tie in terms of how its voters have sided in key Republican-Democratic match-ups since 2015, an analysis by The Oregonian/OregonLive shows. The district that would apparently have nearly even Democratic-Republican match-ups would include fast-growing Bend, where expected Democratic growth could make the district bluer over the next decade. . .
https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/09/oregon-legislature-passes-new-legislative-and-congressional-redistricting-plans-sends-to-gov-kate-brown-for-signature.html
SSI - Note that the great Beaver State has gained a new seat in the US House (from 5 to 6) the result of population growth as per the 2020 US Census.
IF I was forced to bet now I would predict a narrow Tory win in 2024, then the wheels will come off HMG, also Sturgeon will retire, and Labour will get a narrow majority (with a few more Scottish seats) in about 2028
Lord knows who will be their leader by then
If today was the turning point, it's a start. Whether it is enough for 2023/24, who knows?
Districting should be done to equalise population, while minimizing boundary lengths.
It would entirely non-partisan. Whoever could come up with a design with the shortest boundaries would be the winner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5N9IHqqGcA
However good his speech was, today, he’s shown his neoliberal impulses. He’s comfortable with low skilled migration. The country, and red wall labour voters, are not.
He should be out-torying the tories on low-skilled migration.
However, it was not a disaster and is a start but a long way to go as far as I can see
It's about time our politicians grew some backbone, declared Covid over, binned the special powers and quarantine requirements and cut the testing regime down to "serious cases only". We're still spending a fortune on a test and trace service which wasn't any good at the hight of the pandemic, and now generally just wastes everybody's time by ringing up double vaxed contacts of positive cases to tell them they don't have to isolate (I did this when I got it a month ago - not a single person test and trace contacted from the details I gave them needed to isolate. They also kept ringing my up at stupid times like 7am on a Saturday to check I was still isolating - I didn't see the funny side).
My quasi-educated guess is that they will achieve a compromise before (or rather right at) deadline.
Declaring Covid over is premature. Certainly, I am being quite cautious in my behaviour while the prevalence is so high.
Indeed, part of the art & science of gerrymandering in the 3rd millennium, is coming up with line that LOOK good to judges.
People deride Kinnock but he was no Foot.
I've been concerned he wasn't even that - that Labour might struggle to materially improve their position over 2019 - but now, I think that's virtually certain.
Blair 's debut in 1994. Not a great speech (if you watch it now he is extremely stiff, far from the confident charmer he became) but you just knew he was going to win in 1997, ending the many years of Toryism
Thatcher's in Brighton after the IRA bomb in 1984. Extraordinary. Her resilience, the drama, the horror of it all. A prime minister moving towards greatness (this still looks amazing in retrospect)
Kinnock's Militant speech. Brave, fiery, dramatic, the beginning of a long slow recuperation (finished by Blair)
Corbyn's first speech, so utterly bad, so ridiculously inept, you knew Labour were heading for a terrible result - at some point- if they kept him
Theresa May's Red Line speech. One of the stupidest speeches ever made. I recall watching it in stunned disbelief as she boxed herself in, red line by red line, ensuring a horrendously complex and painful Brexit, and condemning herself in the process
And that's it. Those are the only really significant ones, that impacted me or the world. Apart from that I can recall
some of Blair's later lines ("causes of crime"), some Thatcher stuff ("the Lady's not for turning"), the IDS volume man cringefest. Maybe a Boris gag if I really try? But what tho?
I cannot recall any single thing from Major, Brown, Smith, Foot, or Cameron. Nor Starmer. He only did it today and it's gone. Whoosh
Who thinks Brexit has been going well this year?
Con voters: 39% (-12)
Leave voters: 35% (-10)
British public: 18% (-7)
Remain voters: 5% (-3)
Lab voters: 3% (-2)
Changes from Jun 21, 2021
https://t.co/Vc1NkmmAS0 https://t.co/m80O2Itxmg
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1443245367349424130?s=19
Con share of the vote (GB) - 43.5% - 44.7%
Con share of the vote in seats won - 1983 - 2019
Under 37.5% - 7 - 1
37.5% to 42.5% - 55 - 7
42.5% to 47.5% - 67 - 40
Over 47.5% - 268 - 317
Total - 397 - 365
In short, tactical voting happened in 2019 in a way that it didn't happen in 1983.
And then there's all those Brexit Party votes.
Noticeable that the minority who had pressed for a return have been less keen recently, though they'd still quite like to come in one day a week - mostly reluctance to return to commuting more than nervousness about Covid. There's general acceptance that we'll eventually settle next year on teams coming in for joint meetings now and then, some more than others.
Theory: the relaxation of restrictions on meeting friends and family and going to events has made people who especially long for in-person contact feel less bothered about doing it in the office as well.
I'm asset poor but rich in smug.
The snag is, he’s down to number 8 on the most read.
However worthy his speech (and a quick scan of comments suggests he did pretty well) he’s apparently still struggling to cut through.
Of course, a week from now we may find it’s resonating.
I will do so until the prevalence drops. It isn't fear for myself (I am triple vaxxed now) but rather that I do not want to assymptomatically transmit it to my patients, many of whom are very vulnerable medically.
Agree that the centre of the needle is a narrow Conservative win... and that makes 2024 more likely. But the range bar then goes from comfy Conservative to Coalition of chaos.
On top of that, I don't see BoJo having the guile to make a small majority work like Major did. It was ugly, but he survived five years. And if BoJo goes, the magic goes as well.
British jobs for British workers.
That puts him time and internal momentum, and so effectiveness, and the public facing clips then can be used in months and years to come as that effective messaging and support takes effect.
Maybe.