Could Raab be in trouble at Esher and Walton? – politicalbetting.com
Could Raab be in trouble at Esher and Walton? – politicalbetting.com
Having lived and brought up my family in the neighbouring constituency of Twickenham Dominic Raab’s seat of Esher and Walton is one I know well and where the LDs have hopes of making a gain whenever the general election happens.
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Still likely to be close-run though.
If your personal belief is that work should pay instead of the taxpayer then why would you want an effective 75% tax rate that means people rely upon the taxpayer and don't seek extra wages from work?
Cutting tax rates means people can get more from work and need less from the taxpayer. How can you object to that?
As for Labour voters, probably not much more to squeeze, but the 'wasted vote' argument would apply.
#SavePriti
If you think a 75% tax rate is the appropriate thing to do for the poorest then why don't we have a 75% tax rate for middle earners or the richest?
Its inappropriate to tax anyone over 50% of their marginal income. Let alone 75%.
The counter-argument is that the 2019 result was a one-off generated by all the publicity around Brexit and with the LibDems pulling out all the stops to achieve a decapitation. They’re not going to be starting the next campaign from a base only a few votes short, and will have to repeat the same effort as last time just to get in contention. And with little other non-Tory vote to squeeze.
The fair answer is to not tax anyone a marginal tax rate over 50% of what they earn. Unless we're going to tax the richest 75% tax rates (which I'd completely and vehemently oppose) why the heck should we tax the poorest that?
Only let me have £8.41 though.
Long ago, far away, I once lived in a LibDem target seat. Never again. It was miserable.
Hundreds of leaflets, sometime multiple deliveries each day as election approaches.
Major recycling problems for householders from the sheer scale of the leaflet tonnage.
Lib Dem activists disturbing the peace at all hours. Canvassers who look 12 years old, probably are 8 years old and have a mental age of 4 trying to talk serious politics with you
Jeez. And I was voting LibDem in those dark days. And it was feckin annoying.
If I lived in Esher & Walton, I'd move.
- The Tories have led in 148
- Labour have led in 1
- Labour/Tories tied in 1
People said ‘if Labour got rid of Corbyn and replaced him with any other leader they’d be ahead by 20 points’
Same people now saying Labour under SKS is on the right track when they are stuck behind an unpopular mid term Government and SKS shows no signs of having the requisite skills or ability to win.
Time for KotN before its too late
By Election required in safe Lab seat (if such a thing exists)
One poster on here claims the Tories were ahead by 20pts 3 months ago (which is an outright lie) to support his narrative of progress. The reality is Lab are no nearer now than they were in Jan 2021 there has been no progress just different shades of shitness
Perhaps it is a big help in keeping unemployment down by in effect rationing the number of hours the lower paid work to share those jobs around more people. Or perhaps it is just an anomaly they can't be bothered to fix.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSHd2rnkRTE
Looking at the decline of the mainstream parties of the centre-Left, it’s easy to identify one over-riding cause: the demographic decline and political alienation of the traditional working class. But for the mainstream parties of the centre-Right, the causes are more complicated and country-specific — the sudden rise of Emmanuel Macron in France, for instance, or the rapid decline of religiosity in the Republic of Ireland. Still, beyond these local factors, there are two threads that are common to the international crisis of conservatism.
The first is reform — or rather the lack of it.
The second thing that has gone wrong is that, in place of reform, conservative parties have offered something emptier: the politics of sensation. Instead of working quietly and cautiously towards change, conservatives now offer the feeling of change.
There’s an obvious lesson here for Boris Johnson. Though he’s delivered Brexit, he now has to deliver all the other things he said would happen after Brexit.
https://unherd.com/2021/09/what-boris-can-learn-from-barnier/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=a412131e7d&mc_eid=836634e34b
How long before it's all back to one State supplier?
Dominic Cummings, in the meantime, is already branding it the 'Carrie Reshuffle'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1438114368718348296
So being a bit ranty online works? Good
Apparently one of the ‘problems’ was they herded too many (because these days the mega-rich Faroese all have jet skis, superfast speedboats, brilliant sonar etc) so there were far too many to kill efficiently or quickly. Many lingered, awaiting their deaths, crushed in the bay. There also weren’t enough skilled dolphin-killers, so amateurs had a go, and got it wrong, leaving the dolphins mutilated but alive.
And then they had so many dolphin carcasses, they simply dumped them in the sea
https://twitter.com/cruelabattoirs/status/1437913181234606086?s=21
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58570505
> European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said the EU should seek to beef up its military capabilities to confront security threats and global crises.
> She told the European Parliament she believed EU military forces "will be part of the solution".
No wonder Nick Clegg fled politics, given how all his claims get shown up. Ah well, at least he did maintained his principles and joined a company that believes in egalitarianism and democracy.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/facebook-xcheck-content-moderation-rules-b1919503.html
UC made it a bit better, but now the NI tax rise is going in the wrong direction making it even worse not better than it is now.
Anyone who thinks there isn't a Laffer effect in taxing people 75% marginal tax rates is absolutely delusional.
Work further hours, you can be paid for them at the same rate as the first 40 hours, no tax to pay. Additional overtime pay (so the 1/2 of time and a half or similar) gets taxed at your marginal rate (thus preventing abusive schemes where overtime is paid at 10x regular rate etc).
No idea what this would cost, and I'm also aware that 16 hours a week is a magic number for some benefits, but I think the general principle that if you work extra hours, it's your money to keep should be sound.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/15/m25-protest-insulate-britain-block-britains-busiest-motorway/
For energy, last time I looked there was only one supply coming into our house. The 'market' is an artifice.
How is it efficient to have savvy consumers being switched from one seller to another every year (with all the admin, call centre support etc. that that requires) whilst the non-savvy, vulnerable and cant-be-arsed subsidise those of us who switch?
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1438116567670218758?s=20
Sackings in the Commons
Promotions in No.10
But Dom seems to have a personal problem with Carrie and it undermines other criticisms he makes.
Hasn't Northern Ireland suffered enough at the hands of this wretched government?
1. Dominic Raab has upped his game locally conspicuously since December 2019. He's now far more visible in the constituency whereas his LibDem opponent is no where to be seen apart from periodic FB effusions.
2. The Boundary changes should help him a little.
3. The May County and Borough elections must have been disappointing for the LibDems - the Conservatives' majority was solid. However, against that, they did gain the Cobham ward in the by-election. May 2022 will be an important signal.
4. Paradoxically, DR's chances of retaining the seat may be strengthened if he's moved to a less senior and high profile role or dropped altogether. The cache of ousting a senior figure will be hugely reduced. So watch this reshuffle!!!
We are about to be even deeper into Labours 2019 manifesto especially after the reshuffle where Boris surrounds himself with fellow Socialists!!
https://twitter.com/PoliticalPics/status/1438115809117757442?s=20
I couldn't think of much worse individual that than one that didn't even see any of the issues coming with covid and exams...
Well then, force them to do it traditionally, not with satellite navigation, jet-skis and power-drills
Let them go out and catch dolphins in tiny leather coracles, with harpoons made from bone. Presumably they will catch half a dozen, and maybe a couple of Faroese will drown in the process. That would be truly ‘manly’ and then we’d see how long the ‘tradition’ endures
I can't think of another advanced economy that has such a stupid system of in-work benefits that effectively put a cap on hours worked by making the marginal rates beyond that number unpalatable.
There's got to be massive economic potential tied up in getting part time workers to take on more hours, especially during a labour shortage. A 70% marginal rate isn't going to do that.
As in like being savaged by a dead sheep (SKS)
The guy in Manchester did not turn up in anti-trans T-shirt. He was wearing a Lesbian and Gay Alliance hat. As Taz has pointed out, that charity has been set up by gay people who are the target of trans activists who say that lesbians are being transphobic because they do not want to have sex with men with penises.
Perhaps you might ask yourself whether it is acceptable to have a man shout witch at a woman protesting quietly outside Holyrood in the manner shown here. (https://youtu.be/1i3cG2w9O80) Or for a lesbian Pride march in Bordeaux to be attacked by a man with a flamethrower. Or for lesbians who do not subscribe to Stonewall's orthodoxy to be shunned by the Labour Party.
The 48% statistic you mention comes from the Ministry of Justice. If you have an issue with it perhaps you could clarify what it is and take it up with them.
Let me set out the details of the sorts of people I am talking about (all of them male, all of them claiming to be women) and the offences for which they have been convicted:-
- Jessica Brennan: multiple sexual offences against 4 young girls
- Rachel Newton: multiple sexual offences against a child
- Anna McCone: downloading and distributing indecent images of children
- Melissa Wilson: possessing indecent images of children
- Michelle Winter: Rape and assault occasioning actual bodily harm
- Rachelle Mikhnevich: assault and racially aggravated public disorder.
Women are supposed to accept men like this in female only spaces, are they? We are supposed to take the risk, are we? Come off it.
Do you think that an official in the Scottish prison service found guilty of possessing thousands of indecent images of children is the sort of person who should be involved in developing its transgender prison policy? (https://www.womenarehuman.com/former-prison-guard-caught-with-22000-images-of-child-porn-helped-set-scottish-trans-prisoner-rules/)
Let's look at the money trail as well. A pharmaceutical company -Ferring Pharmaceuticals - which makes a puberty blocking drug has donated £100,000 to the Lib Dems, who have a policy of wanting to amend the GRA to remove any requirement at all for a medical diagnosis. Read the Keira Bell judgment and you will see how little research there has been into these drugs and their effects. This is another opioid-style scandal in the making.
The argument is about women's rights which will be seriously harmed and diminished if the gender ideologists gets their way, gender ideologists who care little for doing anything practical for people with gender dysphoria.
One final point gender ideology is, when you think about it, based on very old-fashioned stereotypes. It assumes that if you are a "butch" girl, a tomboy you must therefore be a boy. Or that if you are a more "feminine" sort of man you must be a girl. This is of course nonsense. These are the sorts of stereotypes which feminism has tried to move away from. Quite why they should now be seen as something to be applauded let alone used as the basis for legislation and medical experimentation on children of a most gruesome kind is beyond me.
I stand for the rights of women. I stand for the rights of people who have gender dysphoria. I stand for the rights of gay people whose sexuality is based on sex not on gender. I do not stand for trans activists who seek attack women and gay people and who do nothing for those with gender dysphoria.
And the reason I feel strongly about this is not just because I am a woman and a feminist. But because I have a gay child and one who went through some of the issues which some gay adolescents go through (worrying about whether he might be trans etc). He is now happily gay and probably quite a feminine sort of man. But who cares? Plus I am a trustee of a primary school and there are some very serious issues around safeguarding which are raised by this ideology.
So apologies for boring you all. But this is an important issue and one which will affect my vote. I will not vote for a party which makes self-ID part of its offering. I will not vote for a party which does not make the maintenance of women's' rights and the sex-based rights under the various Acts which women have had to fight for long and hard over decades a fundamental part of its offering. I will not vote for a party which adopts policies undermining the reality of same sex attraction. I will not vote for a party which thinks that being a woman "is an attitude". Womanhood is a reality not a "feeling".
This is a very male forum. I make no apologies for occasionally bringing a female perspective to it.
Expect the SBS are heading north right now
What does the Danish government think of this? They subsidise the Faroes, don't they?
But no one opposed it, so who to vote for instead?
But someone who is involved in this debate if there are sides then on the "trans" side (awful categorisation apols) said that one of the reasons that "trans rights" is important is because those opposed "anti-trans" are quite often on the generally bigoted, political correctness gone mad, white lives matter, men get raped too, er, male end of the political spectrum.
The veneer might be to rail against male to female MMA contestants but there is often a deeper and more sinister world view beneath.
But then let's not pretend that 2 hours makes up the cut.
1) Generation.
2) Nationwide distribution
3) Supply to market
Generation can be made from a whole host of sources; traditionally coal, but now nuclear, gas, wind, solar and interconnector. There are so many that competition and innovation can be rife, and it seems sensible to be in the private sector - albeit with subsidies for some.
The distribution is via the National Grid. This is an area where innovation is generally slow, and competition very difficult to put in place.
The supply to market is done via a series of companies, some very prone to rises in the wholesale prices. Competition is rife, but room for innovation is relatively low.
This is all made more complex by some companies having fingers in both the generation and supply markets, with distribution done via the NG.
(Someone will doubtless correct me if this is wrong...)
So the way I see it, generation should remain private. Distribution could be private or state-owned; I don't think it makes much of a difference. The supply to market at the moment is messy, and I don't think people as a whole benefit from the current structure. It needs a drastic restructuring - either nationalisation or something else.
But sadly I don't see much of anything we do actually decreasing prices by any significant margin.
We hear from people on here regularly about salary sacrifice etc done to avoid going into a 60% tax rate. Why would you expect any difference in behaviour with a 75% tax rate?
This programme will create better life opportunities for pupils and students for many years to come. I look forward to continuing to support the Prime Minster and the government.
https://twitter.com/GavinWilliamson/status/1438120945013645316?s=20
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1438123558589407238
But yes I can believe it.
There is no bravery in the dolphin hunts. The dolphins mostly aren’t eaten (the flesh is poisonous). The dolphins aren’t vermin. It seems to be an unusually pure example of blood lust, multiplied grotesquely by modern technology
Apparently the Danes don’t like it, but can’t do much legally. The Faroes are virtually independent and may take the final step. The Faroes are also extremely wealthy - they have a Swiss level of GDP per capita (hence the amazing tunnels). They don’t need danish subsidy.
But social media is much bigger and nastier than Denmark. This could really damage their tourist trade. Shame
Decreasing only the withdrawal rate leads to the situation where people on £40k are claiming benefits, as well as being massively more expensive, and half the country filling in forms.
The alternative is a lower monetary starting point for UC payments, which hits those right at the bottom.
It’s easy to say don’t start from here, but the UC system is an awful lot better than the myriad systems it replaced, often with withdrawal rates well over 100%. It’s not perfect, but it’s probably the best we can do without spending a lot more.