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Next London Mayor betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 10 in General
imageNext London Mayor betting – politicalbetting.com

As it stands both the next general election and the next London mayoral election are scheduled for May 2024 but I suspect the government will not allow that to happen and move to the London mayoral election a month later or so because there’s also the London Assembly elections as well. It might be similar to the decision not to hold devolved government elections on the same day as a UK wide general election.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    edited September 10
    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Yep - that would screw some of my plans up.

    My entire plan for the next decade was to throw as much as possible that way now the children are dealt with and Mrs Eek is working.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    edited September 10
    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    If he does that I'll go out and campaigning for other parties to ensure the Tories experience another 1997 result.

    But let us protect pensioners.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 10
    'As things stand the Conservatives are on course to win the next general election which could lead to that demoralisation in their opponents who can’t be bothered to go vote.'

    TSE I assume you wrote that before last night's Yougov? On last night's Yougov the Tories would lose their majority and Starmer would become PM with SNP confidence and supply.

    However ironically that might help the Tories in the next London Mayoral election if it is after the next general election as the only time the Tories have gained the London Mayoralty from Labour was in 2008 when they were in opposition
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    FPT
    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm very glad that I stuck to my own principles and called out the party I used to support, instead of swapping my principles when the party changes theirs.

    Can the last PB Tory please turn off the light.

    The party you used to support has had a long history of switching taxation from direct taxes to indirect regressive taxes, to cutting welfare, to helping pensioners at the expense of other groups, to increasing university tuition fees, to limiting taxes on property, to reducing taxes on dividends, to allowing those who have to accumulate more in tax-free investments and savings, to increasing inheritance tax exemptions, to giving contracts to those persons and companies based in tax havens etc.

    This sort of behaviour did not start this week. It was supported in all these actions by many Tories, including many PB Tories on here.

    Would it be unfair to suggest that, just possibly, it is because it has now hit PB Tories in the pocket, there is such rage?

    To be clear, I think that hitting the poorest and the working poor and the young harder than those with wealth and the means to pay is wrong - because it is both unfair, economically counter-productive and does little to solve the social care issue (which covers the disabled as well as the old).

    Inter-generational unfairness is a real issue. A sense that the cards seems to be stacked against those who try and do the right thing is widespread, I feel. I sense it. So do my family. We feel that we are mugs and are being taken for mugs. I think that those with savings should use them first to pay for care, when needed, not expect those without to pay to preserve inheritances. But I am not surprised. I am not a Tory supporter and think that, on many levels, this is a poor government, for reasons I have spelt out many times and won't repeat again (its occasional successes - the vaccination programme - notwithstanding).

    But it is eye opening to see those who have supported and voted for a Tory party which has had a long history of caring little for the young or the poor or those without means suddenly realise what their party cares about when they are asked to open their wallets.

    Indeed, it is farcical for some high earning 30 or 40 year old PB Tories who happily backed Cameron cutting public spending and austerity and increasing tuition fees and cutting IHT without a problem while keeping their taxes low now claiming to be champions of the poor and working class because they are facing a 1.25% rise in their NI bills to pay for the NHS and social care!!
    @contrarian 's post of a few days ago:

    "You really think this is about social care?

    The government is desperate for money to pay for the gargantuan errors of big state intervention of the last 18 months. Test and trace. Furlough fraud. The numbers are simply enormous.

    This is simply the corollary. It was always going to be."
    Hope @contrarian is OK, not seen him for a bit.

    He is right, except on the fundamental point of "errors" - there is nothing else we could have done. But this can quite plausibly be seen as a sorting out the consequences of covid tax with a "fix social care" badge stuck on it rather than a fix social care tax.
    I don't think any of that actually matters - all countries will be taken a look at the one off costs from covid and just writing them off.

    The money raised isn't to cover those one off costs it's to fix other structural flaws within the Government Budget.
  • HYUFD said:

    'As things stand the Conservatives are on course to win the next general election which could lead to that demoralisation in their opponents who can’t be bothered to go vote.'

    TSE I assume you wrote that before last night's Yougov? On last night's Yougov the Tories would lose their majority and Starmer would become PM with SNP confidence and supply.

    However ironically that might help the Tories in the next London Mayoral election as the only time the Tories have gained the London Mayoralty from Labour was in 2008 when they were in opposition

    Nope.

    1) It is just one poll

    2) Even if more polls show a similar story then it is mid term polling and governments have recovered from worst positions

    3) The fundamentals favour the Conservatives so they should win.
  • London deserves better than the names on that list.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    edited September 10

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    If he does that I'll go out and campaigning for other parties to ensure the Tories experience another 1997 result.

    But let us protect existing pensioners.
    FTFY because he will be screwing all future pensioners if he does touch salary sacrifice.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm very glad that I stuck to my own principles and called out the party I used to support, instead of swapping my principles when the party changes theirs.

    Can the last PB Tory please turn off the light.

    The party you used to support has had a long history of switching taxation from direct taxes to indirect regressive taxes, to cutting welfare, to helping pensioners at the expense of other groups, to increasing university tuition fees, to limiting taxes on property, to reducing taxes on dividends, to allowing those who have to accumulate more in tax-free investments and savings, to increasing inheritance tax exemptions, to giving contracts to those persons and companies based in tax havens etc.

    This sort of behaviour did not start this week. It was supported in all these actions by many Tories, including many PB Tories on here.

    Would it be unfair to suggest that, just possibly, it is because it has now hit PB Tories in the pocket, there is such rage?

    To be clear, I think that hitting the poorest and the working poor and the young harder than those with wealth and the means to pay is wrong - because it is both unfair, economically counter-productive and does little to solve the social care issue (which covers the disabled as well as the old).

    Inter-generational unfairness is a real issue. A sense that the cards seems to be stacked against those who try and do the right thing is widespread, I feel. I sense it. So do my family. We feel that we are mugs and are being taken for mugs. I think that those with savings should use them first to pay for care, when needed, not expect those without to pay to preserve inheritances. But I am not surprised. I am not a Tory supporter and think that, on many levels, this is a poor government, for reasons I have spelt out many times and won't repeat again (its occasional successes - the vaccination programme - notwithstanding).

    But it is eye opening to see those who have supported and voted for a Tory party which has had a long history of caring little for the young or the poor or those without means suddenly realise what their party cares about when they are asked to open their wallets.

    Indeed, it is farcical for some high earning 30 or 40 year old PB Tories who happily backed Cameron cutting public spending and austerity and increasing tuition fees and cutting IHT without a problem while keeping their taxes low now claiming to be champions of the poor and working class because they are facing a 1.25% rise in their NI bills to pay for the NHS and social care!!
    @contrarian 's post of a few days ago:

    "You really think this is about social care?

    The government is desperate for money to pay for the gargantuan errors of big state intervention of the last 18 months. Test and trace. Furlough fraud. The numbers are simply enormous.

    This is simply the corollary. It was always going to be."
    Hope @contrarian is OK, not seen him for a bit.

    He is right, except on the fundamental point of "errors" - there is nothing else we could have done. But this can quite plausibly be seen as a sorting out the consequences of covid tax with a "fix social care" badge stuck on it rather than a fix social care tax.
  • eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    If he does that I'll go out and campaigning for other parties to ensure the Tories experience another 1997 result.

    But let us protect existing pensioners.
    FTFY because he will be screwing all future pensioners if he does touch salary sacrifice.
    Yup, I mentioned earlier on this week I was thinking about retiring in about a decade.

    Those plans would be screwed.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    edited September 10

    HYUFD said:

    'As things stand the Conservatives are on course to win the next general election which could lead to that demoralisation in their opponents who can’t be bothered to go vote.'

    TSE I assume you wrote that before last night's Yougov? On last night's Yougov the Tories would lose their majority and Starmer would become PM with SNP confidence and supply.

    However ironically that might help the Tories in the next London Mayoral election as the only time the Tories have gained the London Mayoralty from Labour was in 2008 when they were in opposition

    Nope.

    1) It is just one poll

    2) Even if more polls show a similar story then it is mid term polling and governments have recovered from worst positions

    3) The fundamentals favour the Conservatives so they should win.
    Poll taken between 3rd-6th Sep mind you
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199

    HYUFD said:

    'As things stand the Conservatives are on course to win the next general election which could lead to that demoralisation in their opponents who can’t be bothered to go vote.'

    TSE I assume you wrote that before last night's Yougov? On last night's Yougov the Tories would lose their majority and Starmer would become PM with SNP confidence and supply.

    However ironically that might help the Tories in the next London Mayoral election as the only time the Tories have gained the London Mayoralty from Labour was in 2008 when they were in opposition

    Nope.

    1) It is just one poll

    2) Even if more polls show a similar story then it is mid term polling and governments have recovered from worst positions

    3) The fundamentals favour the Conservatives so they should win.
    4) When the new electoral boundaries are set the Tories will gain some seats from accurate reflection of population movements.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
  • A parasite is an organism that has sustained contact with another organism to the detriment of the host organism.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469
    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Scrapping the 40% tax relief on pension investments has always been coming. If the Chancellor is sensible, he’ll reverse the child benefit and personal allowance withdrawals that cause the high marginal income tax rates, that lead to people stuffing pensions in the first place.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469
    Looks like none of the Indian players have tested positive for Covid, indeed they all tested negative yesterday. One physio tested positive. Yet they’ve declined to field a team, and now appear to be trying to use Covid as an excuse not to forfeit the match and series. https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/eng-vs-ind-5th-test-manchester-test-called-off-over-covid-19-fears-1277173
  • Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Hitting workers who save money would be a very bad look.

    Given that it would affect defined contribution workers then it would hit both private sector workers and the middle aged hard.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 33,746
    FPT
    CarlottaVance said:

    NICOLA Sturgeon has flatly dismissed criticism of her controversial gender reforms as “not valid” just days after being accused of ignoring women’s concerns.

    The First Minister urged people to focus on “real threats” to women’s safety and women’s rights, not moves to help trans people change their gender in the eyes of the law.

    However Ms Sturgeon also suggested that, with some SNP ministers uneasy about the change, there could be a free vote at Holyrood on it, rather than a whipped one.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19571909.nicola-sturgeon-dismisses-concerns-gender-reforms-not-valid/?ref=twtrec

    A free vote on a manifesto commitment?

    From the crazy power addicted dictator , not a chance.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    'As things stand the Conservatives are on course to win the next general election which could lead to that demoralisation in their opponents who can’t be bothered to go vote.'

    TSE I assume you wrote that before last night's Yougov? On last night's Yougov the Tories would lose their majority and Starmer would become PM with SNP confidence and supply.

    However ironically that might help the Tories in the next London Mayoral election as the only time the Tories have gained the London Mayoralty from Labour was in 2008 when they were in opposition

    Nope.

    1) It is just one poll

    2) Even if more polls show a similar story then it is mid term polling and governments have recovered from worst positions

    3) The fundamentals favour the Conservatives so they should win.
    Poll taken between 3rd-6th Sep mind you
    …..


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,016
    edited September 10
    For some reason I had assumed there was a two term limit for London mayors.

    Without one, Khan probably wins if he wants it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    edited September 10

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
    I did point out that Sunak only got the job because he was prepared to be submissive to Dom.

    That was a great big red flag, kudos to Javid for not debasing himself like that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 33,746
    FPT
    IshmaelZ said:

    » show previous quotes
    Hope @contrarian is OK, not seen him for a bit.

    He is right, except on the fundamental point of "errors" - there is nothing else we could have done. But this can quite plausibly be seen as a sorting out the consequences of covid tax with a "fix social care" badge stuck on it rather than a fix social care tax.

    Yes but it was not "errors" it was incompetence, sheer fraud, graft and chumocracy
  • Sandpit said:

    Looks like none of the Indian players have tested positive for Covid, indeed they all tested negative yesterday. One physio tested positive. Yet they’ve declined to field a team, and now appear to be trying to use Covid as an excuse not to forfeit the match and series. https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/eng-vs-ind-5th-test-manchester-test-called-off-over-covid-19-fears-1277173

    They are doing this to protect their IPL contracts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469
    edited September 10

    Sandpit said:

    Looks like none of the Indian players have tested positive for Covid, indeed they all tested negative yesterday. One physio tested positive. Yet they’ve declined to field a team, and now appear to be trying to use Covid as an excuse not to forfeit the match and series. https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/eng-vs-ind-5th-test-manchester-test-called-off-over-covid-19-fears-1277173

    They are doing this to protect their IPL contracts.
    Indeed, so it’s a clear forfeit which should come with a massive fine.

    Maybe the Home Office should order them all to do 10 days’ quarantine, if they came within 10m of the infected physio.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168

    A parasite is an organism that has sustained contact with another organism to the detriment of the host organism.

    Is that not a marriage? (not mine of course, just joking dear, honest).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    How silly to suggest the homeless should save for a mortgage. If only he had discussed it with HYUFD he would have known the Tory advice is to wait for their parents to die and then they will inherit.

    In many areas of life it is important to choose your parents carefully.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    I didn’t define what I think is middle class. I certainly don’t think going to private school is necessary to be middle class. Or being a graduate. I could probably eke a PhD out or trying to define and easily delineate between working class and middle class and still not have a satisfactory answer.

    Like I said - shades of grey, nuance. Not everything is black and white and easily categorisable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    Foxy said:

    How silly to suggest the homeless should save for a mortgage. If only he had discussed it with HYUFD he would have known the Tory advice is to wait for their parents to die and then they will inherit.

    In many areas of life it is important to choose your parents carefully.
    As was posted on the previous thread over half of first time buyers now get parental or grandparental help with a deposit and that figure is even higher in London and the Home Counties
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    A parasite is an organism that has sustained contact with another organism to the detriment of the host organism.

    Oh dear, what brought this on? An Open University biology course?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    A lot of discussions of class fall into this definitional morass and quickly become an exercise in talking past each other. There are at least three definitions of class, which can all be valid in different contexts. For a Marxist, it is all about your place in the economy. You work for a living, receiving income from your labour not from owning capital and so you are working class. I note that neither of you are taking this approach. HYUFD's argument is that your education and non-manual employment make you middle class. This is the work based approach underlying the ABC1C2DE categorisation used in official statistics. Your argument is that class relates to cultural identity, and so you are working class by upbringing, tastes and attitudes.
    There is no need to say who is "right" in this discussion. You are simply talking about different things, and the only mistake you are (both) making is to imagine that your competing analyses share enough definitional common ground for you to have a fruitful argument.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168
    I don't really see Rory Stewart standing for London Mayor again. He is not a Londoner but he is an unusual talent in UK politics and it is a dreadful shame that talent is being wasted. I would love it if he was offered a peerage and a senior position in the Home Office under Gove. That department needs sorting out so badly (Blackadder aficionados can add the rest).
  • Carnyx said:

    A parasite is an organism that has sustained contact with another organism to the detriment of the host organism.

    Oh dear, what brought this on? An Open University biology course?
    The salary sacrifice.
  • I’m starting to wonder if Starmer’s polling team are actually quite good?

    He was on the broken promises and taxing workers when people were saying that was the wrong approach. Yet that’s exactly what the polls since have said.

    It also questions who the Tories were asking, if they’d ask PB they’d have got a more useful answer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 10

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    I didn’t define what I think is middle class. I certainly don’t think going to private school is necessary to be middle class. Or being a graduate. I could probably eke a PhD out or trying to define and easily delineate between working class and middle class and still not have a satisfactory answer.

    Like I said - shades of grey, nuance. Not everything is black and white and easily categorisable.
    Statistically however if you are a graduate and have a salary or income above the average you would be classified by the ONS and pollsters as ABC1 ie middle class
  • DavidL said:

    A parasite is an organism that has sustained contact with another organism to the detriment of the host organism.

    Is that not a marriage? (not mine of course, just joking dear, honest).
    Well speaking as a divorcee....
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    A lot of discussions of class fall into this definitional morass and quickly become an exercise in talking past each other. There are at least three definitions of class, which can all be valid in different contexts. For a Marxist, it is all about your place in the economy. You work for a living, receiving income from your labour not from owning capital and so you are working class. I note that neither of you are taking this approach. HYUFD's argument is that your education and non-manual employment make you middle class. This is the work based approach underlying the ABC1C2DE categorisation used in official statistics. Your argument is that class relates to cultural identity, and so you are working class by upbringing, tastes and attitudes.
    There is no need to say who is "right" in this discussion. You are simply talking about different things, and the only mistake you are (both) making is to imagine that your competing analyses share enough definitional common ground for you to have a fruitful argument.
    Yeah, fair point.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Morning all.

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    A lot of discussions of class fall into this definitional morass and quickly become an exercise in talking past each other. There are at least three definitions of class, which can all be valid in different contexts. For a Marxist, it is all about your place in the economy. You work for a living, receiving income from your labour not from owning capital and so you are working class. I note that neither of you are taking this approach. HYUFD's argument is that your education and non-manual employment make you middle class. This is the work based approach underlying the ABC1C2DE categorisation used in official statistics. Your argument is that class relates to cultural identity, and so you are working class by upbringing, tastes and attitudes.
    There is no need to say who is "right" in this discussion. You are simply talking about different things, and the only mistake you are (both) making is to imagine that your competing analyses share enough definitional common ground for you to have a fruitful argument.
    Spot on. Not least because a Marxist might - topically - inquire whether paying NI is a marker of being working class. And develop an analysis of the workers of, say, Gateshead being leeched and parasitised by the rentiers of, say, Epping.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,714
    edited September 10
    Seems to me the key question atm is whether Khan wants to run again. I suspect he will, given:

    1. Being Mayor is a pretty good job. You get a big profile, some direct powers, and being a Labour liberal in London means you are pretty popular; and
    2. Being LoTo is a pants job, so I'm not convinced either Khan or Burnham is going to be that keen to swap their current roles for it. Although Burnham hasn't hinted pretty clearly he is keen.

    If Starmer is on course for victory then the calculus changes since being a minister is a great job (for a politician).

    If Khan runs again then 6/4 is huge odds.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/58512624

    "The ECB statement initially said that India, who led the series 2-1, had forfeited the final Test and the series was drawn 2-2. The statement has since been amended to say: "India are regrettably unable to field a team."

    The final result is unclear."

    Unless anyone has more up to date info

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,221

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
    From a betting perspective, I wonder if there is some value now in reviewing some of the candidates for next Tory leader.

    Given the tax rises, and the suggested ones, It has reinforced my view Rishi won't be next leader.

    As for the rest, it is a bit process by elimination. Raab's seat is at risk, Patel risks floundering over the migrants situation, Gove would be too toxic.

    Javid and Truss are the two obvious ones from the rest of the Cabinet who would benefit from others' demise. However, I'm thinking Oliver Dowden at DCMS might be a good outside bet. He's ambitious, the DCMS brief gives him a platform to attack wokery, which goes down well with the faithful, and it is also a department that is unlikely to make too many unpopular decisions.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Morning all: has it been noticed that the latest Ig Nobels have been awarded? Something for everyone ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/sep/09/upside-down-rhinos-and-nose-clearing-orgasm-studies-win-ig-nobel-prize

    But here is one result especially for PBers:

    "The Ig Nobel for economics went to Pavlo Blavatskyy, a professor at Montpellier Business School, who used a computer vision algorithm and photos of politicians to find evidence that obesity is “highly correlated” with national corruption."

    Disappointingly, however, the study did not include NW Europe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 10

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    A lot of discussions of class fall into this definitional morass and quickly become an exercise in talking past each other. There are at least three definitions of class, which can all be valid in different contexts. For a Marxist, it is all about your place in the economy. You work for a living, receiving income from your labour not from owning capital and so you are working class. I note that neither of you are taking this approach. HYUFD's argument is that your education and non-manual employment make you middle class. This is the work based approach underlying the ABC1C2DE categorisation used in official statistics. Your argument is that class relates to cultural identity, and so you are working class by upbringing, tastes and attitudes.
    There is no need to say who is "right" in this discussion. You are simply talking about different things, and the only mistake you are (both) making is to imagine that your competing analyses share enough definitional common ground for you to have a fruitful argument.
    On Marx's definition a public school and Oxbridge educated barrister who rents in Chelsea would be working class while a factory owner who went to a comprehensive and did not go to university and lives in Hull and owns his own property would not be working class, so that is absurd.

    However both would be middle class on the ONS definition, correctly but the former would arguably be more middle class than the latter due to his education
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852

    DavidL said:

    A parasite is an organism that has sustained contact with another organism to the detriment of the host organism.

    Is that not a marriage? (not mine of course, just joking dear, honest).
    Well speaking as a divorcee....
    Why are hurricanes named after women?

    They are warm and wet when they come, and when they leave they take your house and car.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Our #AutumnBudget and #SpendingReview representations portal is now open.

    Have your say on current government policy or suggest new policies on the issues that matter to you here: https://gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-budget-and-spending-review-2021-representations


    https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1436263485705498624?s=20
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    Going back to yesterday's poll @david_herdson picks up the following

    Vote intention, 2019 Con voters (YG, 8-9 Sept)

    Con 53 (-7)
    RefUK 6 (+3)
    Lab 5 (+1)
    LD 2 (-)
    Grn 2 (-)
    Oth 3 (-)
    DK/WNV/Ref 30 (+4)

    That's a lot of Don't knows there who the Tories need to win back...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    Err, no!

    The vast majority of middle class people have parents who are nongraduates and state educated, including me. Your comment have a whiff of those Telegraph columnists who write of "ordinary second home owners" etc.

    Personally, I think that the US terminology of blue collar and white collar jobs is more useful, albeit clothing fashions have changed. Class in Britain is about far more than occupation, it is as obscure, arcane and stratified as Hindu castes, and almost as confining.

    Quite right re parentage. It's inevitable given the expansion of tdhe middle classes during the later 20th century.
  • I also wonder if what Starmer needs going into Conference is momentum (no not that one) and he’s now got a bit of that off the Tory idiocy.

    I really think it’s entirely possible this is where Labour starts to get larger, sustained poll leads.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469

    Carnyx said:

    A parasite is an organism that has sustained contact with another organism to the detriment of the host organism.

    Oh dear, what brought this on? An Open University biology course?
    The salary sacrifice.
    Good luck arguing that government tax policy should be biased towards the rich lawyer, who wants to throw several grand a month at his pension to get his taxable salary below £100k, to allow him to retire in his early fifties.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 202

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    I didn’t define what I think is middle class. I certainly don’t think going to private school is necessary to be middle class. Or being a graduate. I could probably eke a PhD out or trying to define and easily delineate between working class and middle class and still not have a satisfactory answer.

    Like I said - shades of grey, nuance. Not everything is black and white and easily categorisable.
    But grey rounded up is white
  • Quincel said:

    Seems to me the key question atm is whether Khan wants to run again. I suspect he will, given:

    1. Being Mayor is a pretty good job. You get a big profile, some direct powers, and being a Labour liberal in London means you are pretty popular; and
    2. Being LoTo is a pants job, so I'm not convinced either Khan or Burnham is going to be that keen to swap their current roles for it. Although Burnham hasn't hinted pretty clearly he is keen.

    If Starmer is on course for victory then the calculus changes since being a minister is a great job (for a politician).

    If Khan runs again then 6/4 is huge odds.

    If the Tories win next time then Lab are likely to win the election after that. Being LoTo may not be a fun job but if you get to be PM afterwards...
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
    From a betting perspective, I wonder if there is some value now in reviewing some of the candidates for next Tory leader.

    Given the tax rises, and the suggested ones, It has reinforced my view Rishi won't be next leader.

    As for the rest, it is a bit process by elimination. Raab's seat is at risk, Patel risks floundering over the migrants situation, Gove would be too toxic.

    Javid and Truss are the two obvious ones from the rest of the Cabinet who would benefit from others' demise. However, I'm thinking Oliver Dowden at DCMS might be a good outside bet. He's ambitious, the DCMS brief gives him a platform to attack wokery, which goes down well with the faithful, and it is also a department that is unlikely to make too many unpopular decisions.
    The problem is that everything rests on the date of Boris's departure. And that could be in 2027 or it could be next week if he discovers he needs a few quid in a hurry.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    I didn’t define what I think is middle class. I certainly don’t think going to private school is necessary to be middle class. Or being a graduate. I could probably eke a PhD out or trying to define and easily delineate between working class and middle class and still not have a satisfactory answer.

    Like I said - shades of grey, nuance. Not everything is black and white and easily categorisable.
    Statistically however if you are a graduate and have a salary or income above the average you would be classified by the ONS and pollsters as ABC1 ie middle class
    That is one definition, yes, which you set great store by. It’s only an opinion, a statistical approach. Trying to easily categorise and delineate the complexity and messiness of human society. So it’s not infallible or all encompassing.

    I think OnlyLivingBoy explains our differing approaches well.

    You have a lovely Friday.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    Carnyx said:

    A parasite is an organism that has sustained contact with another organism to the detriment of the host organism.

    Oh dear, what brought this on? An Open University biology course?
    The salary sacrifice.
    Ohhhhh. I was going to post a video of botfly larval removal, as it must be about as pleasant, but it would gross everyone out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 10
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    Err, no!

    The vast majority of middle class people have parents who are nongraduates and state educated, including me. Your comment have a whiff of those Telegraph columnists who write of "ordinary second home owners" etc.

    Personally, I think that the US terminology of blue collar and white collar jobs is more useful, albeit clothing fashions have changed. Class in Britain is about far more than occupation, it is as obscure, arcane and stratified as Hindu castes, and almost as confining.

    I was agreeing with you, it was Northern Monkey suggesting he is not middle class despite having a postgraduate degree and white collar job.

    However of course in the UK we have an upper class too unlike the US and like much of Europe (and indeed those parts of India with princes etc) as we have a royal family and a hereditary aristocracy with titles which they do not have. The US elite is just the super rich, most Americans are defined as middle class now.

    I would agree with Northern Monkey therefore that he is not upper class but then neither am I
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    1045 statement

    In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/
  • Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    A parasite is an organism that has sustained contact with another organism to the detriment of the host organism.

    Oh dear, what brought this on? An Open University biology course?
    The salary sacrifice.
    Good luck arguing that government tax policy should be biased towards the rich lawyer, who wants to throw several grand a month at his pension to get his taxable salary below £100k, to allow him to retire in his early fifties.
    There are plenty of manual workers who use salary sacrifice.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    edited September 10
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    I didn’t define what I think is middle class. I certainly don’t think going to private school is necessary to be middle class. Or being a graduate. I could probably eke a PhD out or trying to define and easily delineate between working class and middle class and still not have a satisfactory answer.

    Like I said - shades of grey, nuance. Not everything is black and white and easily categorisable.
    But grey rounded up is white
    grey rounded up will just be black and white areas with very defined boundaries.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310
    eek said:

    Going back to yesterday's poll @david_herdson picks up the following

    Vote intention, 2019 Con voters (YG, 8-9 Sept)

    Con 53 (-7)
    RefUK 6 (+3)
    Lab 5 (+1)
    LD 2 (-)
    Grn 2 (-)
    Oth 3 (-)
    DK/WNV/Ref 30 (+4)

    That's a lot of Don't knows there who the Tories need to win back...

    Yup, that's the big one. Lots of 2019 Tory voters are now politically homeless. It's a huge opportunity for the Lib Dems IMO.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Conservative support by age Group [Subsample Warning]:

    18-24s: 9% (-5)
    25-49s: 26% (-3)
    50-64s: 35% (-5)
    Over 65s: 50% (-9)

    *It's only 1 poll*, so we can't read too much into it, but perhaps the triple lock suspension has had a greater effect than the NI rise?


    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1436264748836958216?s=20
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744

    I also wonder if what Starmer needs going into Conference is momentum (no not that one) and he’s now got a bit of that off the Tory idiocy.

    I really think it’s entirely possible this is where Labour starts to get larger, sustained poll leads.

    Swallows and summer and all that.

    The wheels haven't fallen off the Conservatives' wagon yet, but the lug nuts are coming loose.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    IshmaelZ said:

    1045 statement

    In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/

    So that's a single text next June / July then.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,022
    Only weak change signals in yesterday's by election results https://twitter.com/BritainElects?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    One Labour gain from Tories but swing muddled by LD candidate where none previous? Cleadon and East Boldon (South Tyneside) big swing to Greens not to LP so Tories held. Other seats Tory vote steady or slightly up.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    Err, no!

    The vast majority of middle class people have parents who are nongraduates and state educated, including me. Your comment have a whiff of those Telegraph columnists who write of "ordinary second home owners" etc.

    Personally, I think that the US terminology of blue collar and white collar jobs is more useful, albeit clothing fashions have changed. Class in Britain is about far more than occupation, it is as obscure, arcane and stratified as Hindu castes, and almost as confining.

    Indeed. And by no means everyone who claims to be whatever 'class' has reasonably close relatives who are in the same 'class'.

  • eek said:

    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
    From a betting perspective, I wonder if there is some value now in reviewing some of the candidates for next Tory leader.

    Given the tax rises, and the suggested ones, It has reinforced my view Rishi won't be next leader.

    As for the rest, it is a bit process by elimination. Raab's seat is at risk, Patel risks floundering over the migrants situation, Gove would be too toxic.

    Javid and Truss are the two obvious ones from the rest of the Cabinet who would benefit from others' demise. However, I'm thinking Oliver Dowden at DCMS might be a good outside bet. He's ambitious, the DCMS brief gives him a platform to attack wokery, which goes down well with the faithful, and it is also a department that is unlikely to make too many unpopular decisions.
    The problem is that everything rests on the date of Boris's departure. And that could be in 2027 or it could be next week if he discovers he needs a few quid in a hurry.
    Some idiot has just put up his tax (sorry, NI) bill, so he may well be a bit short of the old dosheroony.
  • Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    A parasite is an organism that has sustained contact with another organism to the detriment of the host organism.

    Oh dear, what brought this on? An Open University biology course?
    The salary sacrifice.
    Good luck arguing that government tax policy should be biased towards the rich lawyer, who wants to throw several grand a month at his pension to get his taxable salary below £100k, to allow him to retire in his early fifties.
    I'm a lone parent, every penny counts.

    To be honest, Sunak might as well ignore the salary sacrifice and put income tax back up to 66%.

    He's a champagne socialist in all but name.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Going back to yesterday's poll @david_herdson picks up the following

    Vote intention, 2019 Con voters (YG, 8-9 Sept)

    Con 53 (-7)
    RefUK 6 (+3)
    Lab 5 (+1)
    LD 2 (-)
    Grn 2 (-)
    Oth 3 (-)
    DK/WNV/Ref 30 (+4)

    That's a lot of Don't knows there who the Tories need to win back...

    Yup, that's the big one. Lots of 2019 Tory voters are now politically homeless. It's a huge opportunity for the Lib Dems IMO.
    The largest movement of Tories on that poll is to Farage and Tice, not Davey or Starmer
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    I didn’t define what I think is middle class. I certainly don’t think going to private school is necessary to be middle class. Or being a graduate. I could probably eke a PhD out or trying to define and easily delineate between working class and middle class and still not have a satisfactory answer.

    Like I said - shades of grey, nuance. Not everything is black and white and easily categorisable.
    But grey rounded up is white
    Racist!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    A parasite is an organism that has sustained contact with another organism to the detriment of the host organism.

    Oh dear, what brought this on? An Open University biology course?
    The salary sacrifice.
    Good luck arguing that government tax policy should be biased towards the rich lawyer, who wants to throw several grand a month at his pension to get his taxable salary below £100k, to allow him to retire in his early fifties.
    There are plenty of manual workers who use salary sacrifice.
    Indeed. I suspect that the Chancellor has his eye on the higher-rate tax avoidance strategies though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    Conservative support by age Group [Subsample Warning]:

    18-24s: 9% (-5)
    25-49s: 26% (-3)
    50-64s: 35% (-5)
    Over 65s: 50% (-9)

    *It's only 1 poll*, so we can't read too much into it, but perhaps the triple lock suspension has had a greater effect than the NI rise?


    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1436264748836958216?s=20

    Yes, exactly what I feared.

    The main swing from the Tories has actually been from over 65s due to the 1 year freezing of the triple lock, not from under 65s due to the NI rise
  • Conservative support by age Group [Subsample Warning]:

    18-24s: 9% (-5)
    25-49s: 26% (-3)
    50-64s: 35% (-5)
    Over 65s: 50% (-9)

    *It's only 1 poll*, so we can't read too much into it, but perhaps the triple lock suspension has had a greater effect than the NI rise?


    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1436264748836958216?s=20

    I did predict that.

    This twitter thread from Opinium’s Chris Curtis makes sense to me and if there is a backlash from Rishi Sunak’s proposals then there’s a couple of betting implications.

    First of all I suspect Sunak will become very unpopular amongst Conservative MPs and the Conservative Party core vote of pensioners so if you’re not laying Sunak then you should be especially if you followed the PB tip of 250/1 to succeed Boris Johnson.

    Secondly those who have bet on Labour having a poll lead in 2021 will be feeling optimistic about their bets being winners. In the last month we’ve had three polls with the lead down to 3% so it doesn’t need much movement for a Labour lead to materialise. William Hill and Smarkets are offering 10/11 on a Labour poll lead in 2021 and a near 90% return seems very attractive to me (especially when you factor in a rogue poll/sample issue.)

    I’m expecting an Opinium poll tonight, the last one had the lead down to 3% but tonight’s poll would have been carried out before these proposals were being trailed to the media, I’d expect if the triple lock is being suspended to filter through in the polls in the middle/latter part of September.


    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/09/04/for-those-betting-on-a-labour-poll-lead-in-2021/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744

    Only weak change signals in yesterday's by election results https://twitter.com/BritainElects?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    One Labour gain from Tories but swing muddled by LD candidate where none previous? Cleadon and East Boldon (South Tyneside) big swing to Greens not to LP so Tories held. Other seats Tory vote steady or slightly up.

    The RedWall illustration posted in last night's thread suggests the RedWall remains solidly blue.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    1045 statement

    In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/

    So that's a single text next June / July then.
    It's not the worst solution. But there's not room in June or July with the ODIs, a one off May test before the NZ series fits.
  • Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    1045 statement

    In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/

    So that's a single text next June / July then.
    It's not the worst solution. But there's not room in June or July with the ODIs, a one off May test before the NZ series fits.
    It won't fit.

    It'll clash with the IPL.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744
    eek said:

    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
    From a betting perspective, I wonder if there is some value now in reviewing some of the candidates for next Tory leader.

    Given the tax rises, and the suggested ones, It has reinforced my view Rishi won't be next leader.

    As for the rest, it is a bit process by elimination. Raab's seat is at risk, Patel risks floundering over the migrants situation, Gove would be too toxic.

    Javid and Truss are the two obvious ones from the rest of the Cabinet who would benefit from others' demise. However, I'm thinking Oliver Dowden at DCMS might be a good outside bet. He's ambitious, the DCMS brief gives him a platform to attack wokery, which goes down well with the faithful, and it is also a department that is unlikely to make too many unpopular decisions.
    The problem is that everything rests on the date of Boris's departure. And that could be in 2027 or it could be next week if he discovers he needs a few quid in a hurry.
    Dowden? Well if Isam's "charisma quotient" has any merit, Dowden beats Starmer for raw dullness.

    It only gets worse if Jenrick is your man.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,347
    eek said:

    Going back to yesterday's poll @david_herdson picks up the following

    Vote intention, 2019 Con voters (YG, 8-9 Sept)

    Con 53 (-7)
    RefUK 6 (+3)
    Lab 5 (+1)
    LD 2 (-)
    Grn 2 (-)
    Oth 3 (-)
    DK/WNV/Ref 30 (+4)

    That's a lot of Don't knows there who the Tories need to win back...

    That feels like a pretty typical midterm effect. Government party voters disgruntled by one decision or another, but not yet convinced by any alternative.

    You'd expect that those voters will mostly return to the fold for the GE, for one of a variety of rationalizations: the local MP is better than the rest, the opposition would be worse, AN Other MP will replace the PM and save the day, issue x is more important than whatever is causing midterm annoyance.

    It's an opportunity for the opposition though. There are voters open to being persuaded by an alternative.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,471



    18-24s: 9% (-5)

    lol where did they find that 9% of posh nerds?
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    Dura_Ace said:



    18-24s: 9% (-5)

    lol where did they find that 9% of posh nerds?
    subsample rounding...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 33,469

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    1045 statement

    In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/

    So that's a single text next June / July then.
    It's not the worst solution. But there's not room in June or July with the ODIs, a one off May test before the NZ series fits.
    It won't fit.

    It'll clash with the IPL.
    The more you think about the situation today, the worse you think of the Indian players. Hope the ICC sees fit to impose a serious sporting sanction against them for refusing to play.

    In fact, is there any independent corroboration of the physio having a positive Covid test?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    edited September 10

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    1045 statement

    In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/

    So that's a single text next June / July then.
    It's not the worst solution. But there's not room in June or July with the ODIs, a one off May test before the NZ series fits.
    It won't fit.

    It'll clash with the IPL.
    IPL Final 21 May 2022

    1st test starts 2 - 6 Jun with NZ.

    Manchester test 26th May -> 30th May.
  • Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    1045 statement

    In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/

    So that's a single text next June / July then.
    It's not the worst solution. But there's not room in June or July with the ODIs, a one off May test before the NZ series fits.
    It won't fit.

    It'll clash with the IPL.
    So that is a good reason to hold it then. Make the Indian players choose between playing in the IPL or playing for their country. :)
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    1045 statement

    In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/

    So that's a single text next June / July then.
    It's not the worst solution. But there's not room in June or July with the ODIs, a one off May test before the NZ series fits.
    It won't fit.

    It'll clash with the IPL.
    IPL Final 21 May 2022

    1st test starts 2 - 6 Jun with NZ.

    Manchester test 26th May -> 30th May.
    Four days including flying from India to play a test, good luck!

    Just dawned on me there can't be an Old Trafford tests in June because of the concerts they are holding.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,153
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    Class is a bizarre thing and the traditional ideas are probably a bit redundant now.

    I'd say my parents were working class - they were poor. My dad worked in clerical work, so that rules him out I guess if you make working class manual labour type jobs - but if so, there aren't that many of those now. My mum was clerical pre-children, in later years she worked in retail until retiring. I've worked (since uni) in civil service, academia and freelance writing and consulting. I can't, in all honesty, call myself anything other than middle class. I have a (very) middle class job, a middle class house, a middle class wife, even (daughter of teachers, one a head teacher). I'm not proud of that nor ashamed of having a working class (I would say) childhood, it's just my honest assessment of what I am. I'd feel like a fraud claiming to be working class.
  • eek said:

    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
    From a betting perspective, I wonder if there is some value now in reviewing some of the candidates for next Tory leader.

    Given the tax rises, and the suggested ones, It has reinforced my view Rishi won't be next leader.

    As for the rest, it is a bit process by elimination. Raab's seat is at risk, Patel risks floundering over the migrants situation, Gove would be too toxic.

    Javid and Truss are the two obvious ones from the rest of the Cabinet who would benefit from others' demise. However, I'm thinking Oliver Dowden at DCMS might be a good outside bet. He's ambitious, the DCMS brief gives him a platform to attack wokery, which goes down well with the faithful, and it is also a department that is unlikely to make too many unpopular decisions.
    The problem is that everything rests on the date of Boris's departure. And that could be in 2027 or it could be next week if he discovers he needs a few quid in a hurry.
    Dowden? Well if Isam's "charisma quotient" has any merit, Dowden beats Starmer for raw dullness.

    It only gets worse if Jenrick is your man.
    Sharma wants a word. Well he would, if he had any charisma, probably keeping quiet in the corner until he is needed for defending some shambles on breakfast tv.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,347

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    1045 statement

    In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/

    So that's a single text next June / July then.
    It's not the worst solution. But there's not room in June or July with the ODIs, a one off May test before the NZ series fits.
    It won't fit.

    It'll clash with the IPL.
    They'll play a Test match in parallel with the limited overs series India is due to play. It's the only way to fit it in. It'll be the next step to splitting the sport between first-class cricket and the one-day formats.

    Interesting to see which teams get the multi-format players.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,427

    I also wonder if what Starmer needs going into Conference is momentum (no not that one) and he’s now got a bit of that off the Tory idiocy.

    I really think it’s entirely possible this is where Labour starts to get larger, sustained poll leads.

    Swallows and summer and all that.

    The wheels haven't fallen off the Conservatives' wagon yet, but the lug nuts are coming loose.
    It all rather depends on what Labour's proposals on tax are going to be.

    Will they tax more than the Tories? Who will they tax if so?

    Will they reverse these changes? If so, how will they pay for the NHS and social care and other stuff?

    Will they reduce taxes? Again, what will that mean for public spending?

    It is easy to criticise what the Tories are proposing. But - unless I have missed this - I have no idea what Labour's broad proposals are.

    Labour have always proposed taxing and spending more. So despite what the Tories have done it may still be possible for them to say at the next GE that they are a lower tax party than Labour.

    If Labour does decide to outflank them on that, it will be quite the change. It could happen of course - especially if it is done as part of a shift in the burden of taxation.

    But 2 questions:-

    1.What in Starmer's career so far suggests that he has the boldness to make such a change?
    2. Will he take his party with him?

    I am also a little unclear about what the opponents of this Tory policy want.

    Would it be OK if the wealthy / pensioners were also taxed ie the tax burden rises on everyone and more on the wealthy?

    Or do they want this tax rise to be reversed? In which case we're back to asking how the NHS, social care and much else besides is going to be paid for?
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    'As things stand the Conservatives are on course to win the next general election which could lead to that demoralisation in their opponents who can’t be bothered to go vote.'

    TSE I assume you wrote that before last night's Yougov? On last night's Yougov the Tories would lose their majority and Starmer would become PM with SNP confidence and supply.

    However ironically that might help the Tories in the next London Mayoral election as the only time the Tories have gained the London Mayoralty from Labour was in 2008 when they were in opposition

    Nope.

    1) It is just one poll

    2) Even if more polls show a similar story then it is mid term polling and governments have recovered from worst positions

    3) The fundamentals favour the Conservatives so they should win.
    4) When the new electoral boundaries are set the Tories will gain some seats from accurate reflection of population movements.
    I rather think it is *in*accurate reflection of population movements that CCHQ is counting on.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,036
    So the latest YG shows drop in support across all age groups but biggest drop in over 65 group.

    Triple lock??

    18-24s: 9% (-5)
    25-49s: 26% (-3)
    50-64s: 35% (-5)
    Over 65s: 50% (-9)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    edited September 10

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    1045 statement

    In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/

    So that's a single text next June / July then.
    It's not the worst solution. But there's not room in June or July with the ODIs, a one off May test before the NZ series fits.
    It won't fit.

    It'll clash with the IPL.
    IPL Final 21 May 2022

    1st test starts 2 - 6 Jun with NZ.

    Manchester test 26th May -> 30th May.
    Four days including flying from India to play a test, good luck!

    Just dawned on me there can't be an Old Trafford tests in June because of the concerts they are holding.
    They're well paid professionals, won't exactly have to book EasyJet (It'll be a chartered plane) and not all of them are going to be involved in the IPL final.
    Plus it'll be good prep for NZ for England.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,403

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    1045 statement

    In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/

    So that's a single text next June / July then.
    It's not the worst solution. But there's not room in June or July with the ODIs, a one off May test before the NZ series fits.
    It won't fit.

    It'll clash with the IPL.
    They'll play a Test match in parallel with the limited overs series India is due to play. It's the only way to fit it in. It'll be the next step to splitting the sport between first-class cricket and the one-day formats.

    Interesting to see which teams get the multi-format players.
    Given that we have made a big concession to India in not requiring them to concede they maybe forced to do this. They only need a draw so could pack the team with batters. But a simultaneous series isn't new. In the 1930s England played simultaneous Test series, against WI and NZ I think.
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    Err, no!

    The vast majority of middle class people have parents who are nongraduates and state educated, including me. Your comment have a whiff of those Telegraph columnists who write of "ordinary second home owners" etc.

    Personally, I think that the US terminology of blue collar and white collar jobs is more useful, albeit clothing fashions have changed. Class in Britain is about far more than occupation, it is as obscure, arcane and stratified as Hindu castes, and almost as confining.

    I was agreeing with you, it was Northern Monkey suggesting he is not middle class despite having a postgraduate degree and white collar job.

    However of course in the UK we have an upper class too unlike the US and like much of Europe (and indeed those parts of India with princes etc) as we have a royal family and a hereditary aristocracy with titles which they do not have. The US elite is just the super rich, most Americans are defined as middle class now.

    I would agree with Northern Monkey therefore that he is not upper class but then neither am I
    If you remember a few months ago I did a thread header on the collapse of the US Middle Class and I thought the academic definitions used for that were pretty reasonable.

    Quoted from that article:

    "The first, somewhat surprising finding is that, when questioned, Americans overwhelmingly (90%) see themselves as being ‘Middle Class’. Only 2% see themselves as Upper Class and around 8% see themselves as Lower Class. Rose himself defined the Middle Classes in terms of multiples of the Federal Poverty Level. Using this metric, Middle Class was x1.5 to x17.5 FPL. Importantly Rose found that the fortunes of those defined as ‘Lower’ and ‘Middle’ Middle Class (up to x5 FPL) were much worse and increasingly divergent from those of ‘Upper’ Middle Class."
  • So the latest YG shows drop in support across all age groups but biggest drop in over 65 group.

    Triple lock??

    18-24s: 9% (-5)
    25-49s: 26% (-3)
    50-64s: 35% (-5)
    Over 65s: 50% (-9)

    Will be all sorts.

    Those due to start care between now and the scheme coming in, and their families will be pretty pissed off for one.
    Others won't like the triple lock.
    Others won't think its enough cash for care anyway.
    And some won't think it fair on their kids and grandkids.
  • Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    But they can’t afford to buy a house, which is the root of the problem.

    Thatcher knew that people who own houses vote Conservative. If large number of the middle classes can’t afford to buy property, then Conservatives lose elections.
    North of the Watford gap they can afford to buy a house, hence the Tory gains in the RedWall in 2019.

    South of the Watford gap they can't without an inheritance or gift from their parents, hence London is now majority rent and the safest Labour region in the UK and the Tories made no net gains from Labour and the LDs in the SouthEast in 2019
    Correct, so if Conservatives want to gain votes, they need to address the fact that many people can’t buy houses.

    Inheritance is a total red herring, thanks to increasing life expectancy, many people now won’t inherit anything until their sixties.
    Inheritance is worse than a red herring, its virtually irrelevant to almost everyone. Without wanting to get personal HYUFD's obsession with it not only shows that he's completely out of touch, has never had to work to make ends meet and worry about paying the bills each week, but I rather suspect he must be an only child.

    Because when you actually stop and think about what 'inheritance' means to most people it is absolutely sod all. It certainly doesn't pay for a house.

    A typical set of grandparents nowadays who might die in their 90s could be leaving behind:
    ~3-4 children themselves in their 60s+
    ~8-10 grandchildren adults
    ~10-20+ great-grandchildren
    That's a total of ~20-30 heirs. If you divide a £550,000 house evenly between 30 people even without any legal fees or costs whatsoever then that comes to ~£18k each. An £18k inheritance isn't enough to pay for a deposit on a £550k house, let alone pay for a house.

    Even if you forget the great-grandchildren and only split it between the children and grandchildren, its still not even a 10% deposit each.

    The notion that an inheritance pays for a house is complete nonsense. It may pay for a deposit if you're very, very lucky - but then we should be stopping to think how we can make sure that working people can accrue a deposit off their own efforts.

    PS for the Queen as an example, who is not an atypical 90+ year old when it comes to kids and grandkids etc she has 4 children, 8 grandchildren and 11 great grandchildren. That's 23 heirs she has and most grandparents her age would have around that mark. And that's not counting any in-laws either.
    Whilst not disagreeing with your overall sentiment I think you make a number of basic flaws in your reasoning there.

    The vast majority of people do not have 3-4 children. Indeed birthrates have been dropping for a long time and are well below the 2.2 or whatever it is we need to have a stable population. Hence the need for importing labour. The Royal Family are not typical in terms of their numbers of children. Many families don't even get to the 'heir and a spare' stage.

    Also the idea that people split inheritance evenly amongst all descendants is clearly rubbish. At very best on your example - which again is massively inflated - they would probably leave inheritance only to the adults. So generally you are looking at that money being slit between perhaps 7 or 8 people at very best. Call it 10 if you are being generous. At £55K each that is certainly enough to help with a deposit on a house and get people on the ladder.
    Below 2.2 now but for today's 90 year olds it was around that figure when they had kids.

    However the point is that even if we do say split 10 ways then that's a deposit then that's great for those who get a deposit of that there's no doubt - but my point is that HYUFD has been saying all week that having a 10% deposit is not enough to buy a house, that you need an inheritance.

    However the problem is with house prices the way they are (and we've not even considered legal fees and much more being deducted from the potential house value being bequeathed) you're only going to end up at approximately that deposit level, not considerably more than it.

    If a deposit is enough then that's great. But then if its enough, we ought to be thinking about what ways a young couple nowadays can accrue a deposit without relying upon "wait for a grandparent to die" as a solution.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,574

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    This tweet just just appeared on my linkedIn feed

    image

    Which proves there is a whole heap of opportunity around the social care tax - I suspect it will be a continual issue that slowly chips away at Tory support within the working class.

    Separately the administrators of Cleveland Bridge have discovered that there isn't a viable takeover offer. So that is another historic engineering firm gone in a Red Wall seat...

    Graduates earning over £27,000 a year are not working class, they are middle class, mainly living in London and other big cities
    There are working class graduates too! However for political analysis, there is too much focus on working class, when what will count electorally is workers, whatever their class.
    If you have a degree you can never be fully working class, certainly not in terms of education and culture.

    Which is it? Most people with a degree can't afford a £900k home.

    AR says if you can't afford it you are not middle class.
    HYUFD says if you have a degree you can't be working class.

    It is all nonsense.
    HYUFD has his psephological strengths but so much of his dogmatic posting is just horseshit.

    I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come. It's a cultural thing; where you were born, what your parents did, what your friends and family's occupations are, the school you went to, how you were brought up, how you see the world.

    It's not better than being middle-class. There are aspects of the working-class culture and outlook I dislike. There are elements of middle-classness I like and have adopted. Through uni I have met and made good middle-class friends. But I am undoubtedly still, and will remain until I croak, working class.

    It's not just measured in income or qualifications anymore. There's nuance there, shades of grey. Stuff that HYUFD doesn't do very well.
    'I've got two degrees and a white collar job and I'm as working class as they come' no you are middle class both by education and job.

    Just because you maybe working class by background does not mean you are working class now and it is patronising to those who are still working class to suggest you are
    Nice dogmatic reply.

    Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.

    But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
    On your definition of middle class then, the only people who are middle class are those with upper middle class parents, who went to private school, graduated from university and now have a professional job ie about less than 5% of the population
    Err, no!

    The vast majority of middle class people have parents who are nongraduates and state educated, including me. Your comment have a whiff of those Telegraph columnists who write of "ordinary second home owners" etc.

    Personally, I think that the US terminology of blue collar and white collar jobs is more useful, albeit clothing fashions have changed. Class in Britain is about far more than occupation, it is as obscure, arcane and stratified as Hindu castes, and almost as confining.

    Indeed. And by no means everyone who claims to be whatever 'class' has reasonably close relatives who are in the same 'class'.

    And a forgotten element is that the "class" system is enforced from below.

    When my eldest daughter went to school, there were 2 primary schools in the immediate catchment area. One got outstanding results - near private school levels. There was intense competition to get in. One parent was even taken to court over fraud relating to address/catchment area.

    The other was a disaster area. Complete, utter.

    All the well off, well educated parents sent their children to the first school. If they could get in.

    As is usual in London, there are council estates scattered through the borough. One is literally next door to the school - some people there are literally on the school boundary. So they have first priority on entry...

    But the poorer people send their children to the other school - almost 100% of the time. Even though it is further away, for some of them.

    A few chose the good school. What was interesting was bridging the cultural divide - I made an effort to reach out to them. The mis-understandings between them and the middle class parents would make an interesting column for a newspaper, perhaps.

    Anyway, their peers on the estate had tried to dissuade them from sending their children to the "posh" school.

    "They're all posh there", "There's too much homework", "They are too strict on the uniform" and even variations on "It's not for the likes of us".

    It was Fear Of The Other, pure and simple.
  • So the latest YG shows drop in support across all age groups but biggest drop in over 65 group.

    Triple lock??

    18-24s: 9% (-5)
    25-49s: 26% (-3)
    50-64s: 35% (-5)
    Over 65s: 50% (-9)

    Could be that, or it could be that there were a lot more votes available to be lost in that age group.
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