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Next London Mayor betting – politicalbetting.com
Next London Mayor betting – politicalbetting.com
As it stands both the next general election and the next London mayoral election are scheduled for May 2024 but I suspect the government will not allow that to happen and move to the London mayoral election a month later or so because there’s also the London Assembly elections as well. It might be similar to the decision not to hold devolved government elections on the same day as a UK wide general election.
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My entire plan for the next decade was to throw as much as possible that way now the children are dealt with and Mrs Eek is working.
But let us protect pensioners.
TSE I assume you wrote that before last night's Yougov? On last night's Yougov the Tories would lose their majority and Starmer would become PM with SNP confidence and supply.
However ironically that might help the Tories in the next London Mayoral election if it is after the next general election as the only time the Tories have gained the London Mayoralty from Labour was in 2008 when they were in opposition
The money raised isn't to cover those one off costs it's to fix other structural flaws within the Government Budget.
1) It is just one poll
2) Even if more polls show a similar story then it is mid term polling and governments have recovered from worst positions
3) The fundamentals favour the Conservatives so they should win.
He is right, except on the fundamental point of "errors" - there is nothing else we could have done. But this can quite plausibly be seen as a sorting out the consequences of covid tax with a "fix social care" badge stuck on it rather than a fix social care tax.
Those plans would be screwed.
Look, I'm sure IRL you're a lovely bloke, and I don't want to get into an online slagging match with some random off the internet. Life's too short and it's a Friday and I know when it comes to stubbornness you put many mules to shame, so I don't want to get into a jaw-clenchingly irritating, ultimately futile back-and-forth with you.
But I will say that what you've written above is laughable.
He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.
And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
Given that it would affect defined contribution workers then it would hit both private sector workers and the middle aged hard.
CarlottaVance said:
NICOLA Sturgeon has flatly dismissed criticism of her controversial gender reforms as “not valid” just days after being accused of ignoring women’s concerns.
The First Minister urged people to focus on “real threats” to women’s safety and women’s rights, not moves to help trans people change their gender in the eyes of the law.
However Ms Sturgeon also suggested that, with some SNP ministers uneasy about the change, there could be a free vote at Holyrood on it, rather than a whipped one.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19571909.nicola-sturgeon-dismisses-concerns-gender-reforms-not-valid/?ref=twtrec
A free vote on a manifesto commitment?
From the crazy power addicted dictator , not a chance.
Without one, Khan probably wins if he wants it.
That was a great big red flag, kudos to Javid for not debasing himself like that.
IshmaelZ said:
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Hope @contrarian is OK, not seen him for a bit.
He is right, except on the fundamental point of "errors" - there is nothing else we could have done. But this can quite plausibly be seen as a sorting out the consequences of covid tax with a "fix social care" badge stuck on it rather than a fix social care tax.
Yes but it was not "errors" it was incompetence, sheer fraud, graft and chumocracy
Maybe the Home Office should order them all to do 10 days’ quarantine, if they came within 10m of the infected physio.
Like I said - shades of grey, nuance. Not everything is black and white and easily categorisable.
There is no need to say who is "right" in this discussion. You are simply talking about different things, and the only mistake you are (both) making is to imagine that your competing analyses share enough definitional common ground for you to have a fruitful argument.
He was on the broken promises and taxing workers when people were saying that was the wrong approach. Yet that’s exactly what the polls since have said.
It also questions who the Tories were asking, if they’d ask PB they’d have got a more useful answer
1. Being Mayor is a pretty good job. You get a big profile, some direct powers, and being a Labour liberal in London means you are pretty popular; and
2. Being LoTo is a pants job, so I'm not convinced either Khan or Burnham is going to be that keen to swap their current roles for it. Although Burnham hasn't hinted pretty clearly he is keen.
If Starmer is on course for victory then the calculus changes since being a minister is a great job (for a politician).
If Khan runs again then 6/4 is huge odds.
The vast majority of middle class people have parents who are nongraduates and state educated, including me. Your comment have a whiff of those Telegraph columnists who write of "ordinary second home owners" etc.
Personally, I think that the US terminology of blue collar and white collar jobs is more useful, albeit clothing fashions have changed. Class in Britain is about far more than occupation, it is as obscure, arcane and stratified as Hindu castes, and almost as confining.
"The ECB statement initially said that India, who led the series 2-1, had forfeited the final Test and the series was drawn 2-2. The statement has since been amended to say: "India are regrettably unable to field a team."
The final result is unclear."
Unless anyone has more up to date info
Given the tax rises, and the suggested ones, It has reinforced my view Rishi won't be next leader.
As for the rest, it is a bit process by elimination. Raab's seat is at risk, Patel risks floundering over the migrants situation, Gove would be too toxic.
Javid and Truss are the two obvious ones from the rest of the Cabinet who would benefit from others' demise. However, I'm thinking Oliver Dowden at DCMS might be a good outside bet. He's ambitious, the DCMS brief gives him a platform to attack wokery, which goes down well with the faithful, and it is also a department that is unlikely to make too many unpopular decisions.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/sep/09/upside-down-rhinos-and-nose-clearing-orgasm-studies-win-ig-nobel-prize
But here is one result especially for PBers:
"The Ig Nobel for economics went to Pavlo Blavatskyy, a professor at Montpellier Business School, who used a computer vision algorithm and photos of politicians to find evidence that obesity is “highly correlated” with national corruption."
Disappointingly, however, the study did not include NW Europe.
However both would be middle class on the ONS definition, correctly but the former would arguably be more middle class than the latter due to his education
They are warm and wet when they come, and when they leave they take your house and car.
Have your say on current government policy or suggest new policies on the issues that matter to you here: https://gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-budget-and-spending-review-2021-representations
https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1436263485705498624?s=20
Vote intention, 2019 Con voters (YG, 8-9 Sept)
Con 53 (-7)
RefUK 6 (+3)
Lab 5 (+1)
LD 2 (-)
Grn 2 (-)
Oth 3 (-)
DK/WNV/Ref 30 (+4)
That's a lot of Don't knows there who the Tories need to win back...
I really think it’s entirely possible this is where Labour starts to get larger, sustained poll leads.
I think OnlyLivingBoy explains our differing approaches well.
You have a lovely Friday.
However of course in the UK we have an upper class too unlike the US and like much of Europe (and indeed those parts of India with princes etc) as we have a royal family and a hereditary aristocracy with titles which they do not have. The US elite is just the super rich, most Americans are defined as middle class now.
I would agree with Northern Monkey therefore that he is not upper class but then neither am I
In view of the strong relationship between BCCI and ECB, the BCCI has offered to ECB a rescheduling of the cancelled Test match. Both the Boards will work towards finding a window to reschedule this Test match.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/09/10/opening-day-englands-fifth-test-against-india-called-live-latest/
18-24s: 9% (-5)
25-49s: 26% (-3)
50-64s: 35% (-5)
Over 65s: 50% (-9)
*It's only 1 poll*, so we can't read too much into it, but perhaps the triple lock suspension has had a greater effect than the NI rise?
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1436264748836958216?s=20
The wheels haven't fallen off the Conservatives' wagon yet, but the lug nuts are coming loose.
One Labour gain from Tories but swing muddled by LD candidate where none previous? Cleadon and East Boldon (South Tyneside) big swing to Greens not to LP so Tories held. Other seats Tory vote steady or slightly up.
To be honest, Sunak might as well ignore the salary sacrifice and put income tax back up to 66%.
He's a champagne socialist in all but name.
The main swing from the Tories has actually been from over 65s due to the 1 year freezing of the triple lock, not from under 65s due to the NI rise
This twitter thread from Opinium’s Chris Curtis makes sense to me and if there is a backlash from Rishi Sunak’s proposals then there’s a couple of betting implications.
First of all I suspect Sunak will become very unpopular amongst Conservative MPs and the Conservative Party core vote of pensioners so if you’re not laying Sunak then you should be especially if you followed the PB tip of 250/1 to succeed Boris Johnson.
Secondly those who have bet on Labour having a poll lead in 2021 will be feeling optimistic about their bets being winners. In the last month we’ve had three polls with the lead down to 3% so it doesn’t need much movement for a Labour lead to materialise. William Hill and Smarkets are offering 10/11 on a Labour poll lead in 2021 and a near 90% return seems very attractive to me (especially when you factor in a rogue poll/sample issue.)
I’m expecting an Opinium poll tonight, the last one had the lead down to 3% but tonight’s poll would have been carried out before these proposals were being trailed to the media, I’d expect if the triple lock is being suspended to filter through in the polls in the middle/latter part of September.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/09/04/for-those-betting-on-a-labour-poll-lead-in-2021/
It'll clash with the IPL.
It only gets worse if Jenrick is your man.
You'd expect that those voters will mostly return to the fold for the GE, for one of a variety of rationalizations: the local MP is better than the rest, the opposition would be worse, AN Other MP will replace the PM and save the day, issue x is more important than whatever is causing midterm annoyance.
It's an opportunity for the opposition though. There are voters open to being persuaded by an alternative.
In fact, is there any independent corroboration of the physio having a positive Covid test?
PS If Bosnia and Lithuania had half decent cricket teams we would still be in the EU.
1st test starts 2 - 6 Jun with NZ.
Manchester test 26th May -> 30th May.
Just dawned on me there can't be an Old Trafford tests in June because of the concerts they are holding.
I'd say my parents were working class - they were poor. My dad worked in clerical work, so that rules him out I guess if you make working class manual labour type jobs - but if so, there aren't that many of those now. My mum was clerical pre-children, in later years she worked in retail until retiring. I've worked (since uni) in civil service, academia and freelance writing and consulting. I can't, in all honesty, call myself anything other than middle class. I have a (very) middle class job, a middle class house, a middle class wife, even (daughter of teachers, one a head teacher). I'm not proud of that nor ashamed of having a working class (I would say) childhood, it's just my honest assessment of what I am. I'd feel like a fraud claiming to be working class.
Interesting to see which teams get the multi-format players.
Will they tax more than the Tories? Who will they tax if so?
Will they reverse these changes? If so, how will they pay for the NHS and social care and other stuff?
Will they reduce taxes? Again, what will that mean for public spending?
It is easy to criticise what the Tories are proposing. But - unless I have missed this - I have no idea what Labour's broad proposals are.
Labour have always proposed taxing and spending more. So despite what the Tories have done it may still be possible for them to say at the next GE that they are a lower tax party than Labour.
If Labour does decide to outflank them on that, it will be quite the change. It could happen of course - especially if it is done as part of a shift in the burden of taxation.
But 2 questions:-
1.What in Starmer's career so far suggests that he has the boldness to make such a change?
2. Will he take his party with him?
I am also a little unclear about what the opponents of this Tory policy want.
Would it be OK if the wealthy / pensioners were also taxed ie the tax burden rises on everyone and more on the wealthy?
Or do they want this tax rise to be reversed? In which case we're back to asking how the NHS, social care and much else besides is going to be paid for?
Triple lock??
18-24s: 9% (-5)
25-49s: 26% (-3)
50-64s: 35% (-5)
Over 65s: 50% (-9)
Plus it'll be good prep for NZ for England.
Quoted from that article:
"The first, somewhat surprising finding is that, when questioned, Americans overwhelmingly (90%) see themselves as being ‘Middle Class’. Only 2% see themselves as Upper Class and around 8% see themselves as Lower Class. Rose himself defined the Middle Classes in terms of multiples of the Federal Poverty Level. Using this metric, Middle Class was x1.5 to x17.5 FPL. Importantly Rose found that the fortunes of those defined as ‘Lower’ and ‘Middle’ Middle Class (up to x5 FPL) were much worse and increasingly divergent from those of ‘Upper’ Middle Class."
Those due to start care between now and the scheme coming in, and their families will be pretty pissed off for one.
Others won't like the triple lock.
Others won't think its enough cash for care anyway.
And some won't think it fair on their kids and grandkids.
However the point is that even if we do say split 10 ways then that's a deposit then that's great for those who get a deposit of that there's no doubt - but my point is that HYUFD has been saying all week that having a 10% deposit is not enough to buy a house, that you need an inheritance.
However the problem is with house prices the way they are (and we've not even considered legal fees and much more being deducted from the potential house value being bequeathed) you're only going to end up at approximately that deposit level, not considerably more than it.
If a deposit is enough then that's great. But then if its enough, we ought to be thinking about what ways a young couple nowadays can accrue a deposit without relying upon "wait for a grandparent to die" as a solution.
When my eldest daughter went to school, there were 2 primary schools in the immediate catchment area. One got outstanding results - near private school levels. There was intense competition to get in. One parent was even taken to court over fraud relating to address/catchment area.
The other was a disaster area. Complete, utter.
All the well off, well educated parents sent their children to the first school. If they could get in.
As is usual in London, there are council estates scattered through the borough. One is literally next door to the school - some people there are literally on the school boundary. So they have first priority on entry...
But the poorer people send their children to the other school - almost 100% of the time. Even though it is further away, for some of them.
A few chose the good school. What was interesting was bridging the cultural divide - I made an effort to reach out to them. The mis-understandings between them and the middle class parents would make an interesting column for a newspaper, perhaps.
Anyway, their peers on the estate had tried to dissuade them from sending their children to the "posh" school.
"They're all posh there", "There's too much homework", "They are too strict on the uniform" and even variations on "It's not for the likes of us".
It was Fear Of The Other, pure and simple.
Plus of course there's a purely mechanistic effect at work: if the Tories lose 10% of their support in any age group that's going to show up as a bigger swing where they have 60% of the age group voting for them, versus one where they only get 15% of that age group's votes.