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Next London Mayor betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    maaarsh said:

    Cases flat as a pancake and yet Culture Sec thinks we desperately need vaccine passports from end of this month.

    It's depressing, on this and NI, how far these 'Conservatives' are willing to schill for positions they can't possibly hold themselves just for a ministerial car or the hope of being able to carry someone's bag for them.
    Julia HB had a good go at him on TalkRadio this morning.

    Why did Mikey Gove feel safe enough to go into a night club last week, knowing there will be people in there who wont be able to get in again in a month as they are not double vaxxed?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2021
    Really useful chart from @EdConwaySky - its been hard to get this data - shows most deaths in unvax but over 80 years - around 1/3 are vaccine breakthroughs -showing why we need boosters

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1436285721120227330?s=19
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited September 2021

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    Quite.

    In an even more stupid development, any FTA F1 fans won't be able to watch perhaps the best black British sportsman of all time do his thing at Monza on C4 tonight, because they might have to show a white person if they covered F1. So they just decided to cancel the F1 Qualy highlights coverage. Yay for progress!
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2021
    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Another example of the weird kind of inverse racism that is being normalised. There was a story the other day from BBC diversity training included encouragement being a diversity champion, which meant things like when having a meeting to make way to allow non-white people speak more in preference to white people....rather than you know let all those with some useful input speak.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    maaarsh said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    You've obviously not been through any recent corporate equality training, where you'll be told that colour blind approaches are actually just tools to maintain white dominance in society. The best is when you're invited to engage but you have a mortgage to pay.
    Sadly I have been through ALL the training as required by my Uni.
    The interesting thing, sitting in such training, is the way that people parrot the required answers.

    A Russian friend who served in the armed forces back in Soviet times, said that it reminded him of the "classes" held by the political officers. Attendance for (some people) was compulsory, and he (and the others) parroted the correct responses.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    maaarsh said:

    Cases flat as a pancake and yet Culture Sec thinks we desperately need vaccine passports from end of this month.

    It's depressing, on this and NI, how far these 'Conservatives' are willing to schill for positions they can't possibly hold themselves just for a ministerial car or the hope of being able to carry someone's bag for them.
    Julia HB had a good go at him on TalkRadio this morning.

    Why did Mikey Gove feel safe enough to go into a night club last week, knowing there will be people in there who wont be able to get in again in a month as they are not double vaxxed?
    Possibly the aim isn't to stop people going into clubs, but to encourage them to get a vaccine?
    Dunno, just thinking out loud.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    Indeed, people don't pay attention until they need to.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,625
    edited September 2021

    On the polling. If (and that's a big if as so early) this latest poll with lead for Lab is down to the NI increase then that possibly shows that even if people in focus groups tell you they support an idea they might not actually.

    Might we see a similar hit when vaccine passports are introduced?

    Seems popular with public, but will they be when reality hits.

    It is not always inconsistent.

    Take private school tax. Most people are in favour of them losing their charitable tax exemptions.

    But the people whose vote might change because of that is a much much smaller group, who are against such a change. Expect similar with vaccine passports. Almost no-one is going to switch to the govt for such a policy even if people approve. Some people will switch against the govt as they feel strongly about it or it impacts them significantly.
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    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    ONS infection survey has finally caught up with the SNP shit-show, nearly double the English rate and growing rapidly so the conspiracy theories that higher cases was due to better testing can be put to bed.

    I don't think its fair to blame the SNP. There's no legal restrictions in England, so what are the Scots meant to be doing to make infections higher?

    Its just a case that an exit wave needs to occur and places like Cornwall and the Highlands and elsewhere that had lower cases earlier in the pandemic seem to be catching up now.

    No idea what's going on in Glasgow though. That's been high throughout and is high now so seems odd.
    They claimed credit on the way up so they should get a kick on the way down, even if it's rubbish both ways round. And people responsible for vaccine passports deserve every attack they receive.
    That's fair.

    And I suppose they've not dropped all restrictions and are still pratting around with masks too so they should be having lower cases you'd think. Except of course for them being by this stage of the pandemic an inconvenient and stupid irrelevance.

    We had our holiday in August at Centreparcs in Cumbria and I don't believe I saw a single mask the entire time we were there, which was great. Who goes to a holiday resort, once its no longer required, where you're either outdoors or in a swimming centre etc in order to wear a facemask? If you're that bothered, don't go.

    But on the Facebook page the week we went there was a flame war going on with someone from Scotland asking whether there was "full compliance" with wearing masks, since they're required in Scotland apparently and she knew they weren't in England but wanted to make sure they were worn before she goes. With then anger and outrage that the answer coming back was no, people aren't wearing masks.

    If you don't want to go anywhere where people aren't wearing masks, maybe don't book a holiday at a holiday resort in a nation that's no longer requiring people to wear a mask. Who the heck goes to a holiday resort with the intention of masking up? (Maybe don't answer that if perverted ~ Ed)
    If you are that worried about the plague, which is now probably endemic, and all adults who want to be are double vaxxed, why are you going on holiday at all?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    For those PBers still wetting themselves about the extra £4 a week NI

    Daily Mail has a £5 off £25 spend at LIDL

    First installment covered

    Don't shop at Lidl, don't buy the Mail. Other than that, great plan!
    Maybe you should, and just for you its also in the Metro which is free so you get a free £5 rather than a net£4.20 if you buy the Daily Mail.

    Please feel free to ignore if you are so wealthy that the NI hit barely touches the sides.

    I bought 3 Daily Mails yesterday
    You were robbed, the internet says it's 65p. So net £4.35.

    That's half of a bottle of Lidl's burgundy, mind. TY for the tip.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    edited September 2021

    tlg86 said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Anyone think YouGov's sample is a bit too politically engaged?
    Look at the dates - the Savanta poll was 3-5 Sept, before the tax rise kerfuffle; the YouGov was 8-9 September.
    Apologies if this his been answered. But what is the point of a poll taken on 3-5th being published on the 10th?
    Especially a day after one taken yesterday and the day before?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    tlg86 said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Anyone think YouGov's sample is a bit too politically engaged?
    Look at the dates - the Savanta poll was 3-5 Sept, before the tax rise kerfuffle; the YouGov was 8-9 September.
    Ah right, need to be patient. :)
  • Options
    Mr. Malmesbury, reminds me of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3VA9pZ_kY0
  • Options

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    "I look to a day when people will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."

    Martin Luther King, Jr.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    Quite.

    In an even more stupid development, any FTA F1 fans won't be able to watch perhaps the best black British sportsman of all time do his thing at Monza on C4 tonight, because they might have to show a white person if they covered F1. So they just decided to cancel the F1 Qualy highlights coverage. Yay for progress!
    I suspect the issue is that C4 only have rights to 2 highlight shows per race except for the protected British GP.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited September 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    The NI rise was baked in, the triple lock freeze was much less broadcast about until it was announced and that is where most of the movement has come with Yougov ie the main movement is over 65s from Tory to RefUK and DK not under 65 to Labour.

    In fact according to Yougov the Tory vote has held up best with those aged 25-49 ie young and middle aged workers who were supposedly most annoyed by the NI rise
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,445
    edited September 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Change by region (I know, subsamples):

    Region, London, Rest of South, Midlands/Wales, North, Scotland
    Con, -9, -10, 2, -2, 0
    Lab, -4, 6, -4, 5, -2
    Lib Dem, 6, 4, 1, 0, 1
    SNP, 1, 0, -1, 0, 5
    Plaid Cymru, 0, 0, -2, 0, 0
    Reform UK, 4, 1, 3, 2, -1
    Green, 2, 0, 2, -4, -2
    Other, 1, 1, -2, -1, -1

    So Tories taking a hit in London and the South. They really are an ungrateful bunch of...

    So the Tories went up in the Midlands? Interesting. There are more marginals there than in London and the south combined.
  • Options
    maaarsh said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    You've obviously not been through any recent corporate equality training, where you'll be told that colour blind approaches are actually just tools to maintain white dominance in society. The best is when you're invited to engage but you have a mortgage to pay.
    The state of this....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9972175/Google-staff-undergoing-controversial-antiracism-training.html
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    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    ONS infection survey has finally caught up with the SNP shit-show, nearly double the English rate and growing rapidly so the conspiracy theories that higher cases was due to better testing can be put to bed.

    I don't think its fair to blame the SNP. There's no legal restrictions in England, so what are the Scots meant to be doing to make infections higher?

    Its just a case that an exit wave needs to occur and places like Cornwall and the Highlands and elsewhere that had lower cases earlier in the pandemic seem to be catching up now.

    No idea what's going on in Glasgow though. That's been high throughout and is high now so seems odd.
    They claimed credit on the way up so they should get a kick on the way down, even if it's rubbish both ways round. And people responsible for vaccine passports deserve every attack they receive.
    That's fair.

    And I suppose they've not dropped all restrictions and are still pratting around with masks too so they should be having lower cases you'd think. Except of course for them being by this stage of the pandemic an inconvenient and stupid irrelevance.

    We had our holiday in August at Centreparcs in Cumbria and I don't believe I saw a single mask the entire time we were there, which was great. Who goes to a holiday resort, once its no longer required, where you're either outdoors or in a swimming centre etc in order to wear a facemask? If you're that bothered, don't go.

    But on the Facebook page the week we went there was a flame war going on with someone from Scotland asking whether there was "full compliance" with wearing masks, since they're required in Scotland apparently and she knew they weren't in England but wanted to make sure they were worn before she goes. With then anger and outrage that the answer coming back was no, people aren't wearing masks.

    If you don't want to go anywhere where people aren't wearing masks, maybe don't book a holiday at a holiday resort in a nation that's no longer requiring people to wear a mask. Who the heck goes to a holiday resort with the intention of masking up? (Maybe don't answer that if perverted ~ Ed)
    Sadly there are people who regard their mask as an amulet that will protect them from harm. I had an argument with a good friend about this on Facebook.

    So they will do loads of things - theatre, restaurants, pubs, etc - but believe it's low risk because they wear a mask. And then they blame people not wearing masks for all the Covid transmission, so that they don't have to face the residual risk they are taking.

    It's the same sort of mentality that blames rape victims for wearing revealing clothing.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    edited September 2021

    On the polling. If (and that's a big if as so early) this latest poll with lead for Lab is down to the NI increase then that possibly shows that even if people in focus groups tell you they support an idea they might not actually.

    Might we see a similar hit when vaccine passports are introduced?

    Seems popular with public, but will they be when reality hits.

    Strength of feeling.
    Ordinary support/oppose doesn’t pick this up. And in focus groups folk are paid to give an opinion. So they do. Most won't change their VI. Vaccine passports and tax are two visceral issues.
    A minority will feel strongly enough to alter their intentions. Even if the majority shrug and support it weakly.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    IshmaelZ said:

    For those PBers still wetting themselves about the extra £4 a week NI

    Daily Mail has a £5 off £25 spend at LIDL

    First installment covered

    Don't shop at Lidl, don't buy the Mail. Other than that, great plan!
    Maybe you should, and just for you its also in the Metro which is free so you get a free £5 rather than a net£4.20 if you buy the Daily Mail.

    Please feel free to ignore if you are so wealthy that the NI hit barely touches the sides.

    I bought 3 Daily Mails yesterday
    You were robbed, the internet says it's 65p. So net £4.35.

    That's half of a bottle of Lidl's burgundy, mind. TY for the tip.
    What on earth are you doing buying wine at Lidl ffs.

    Aldi is where you want to be. Their house champagne is extremely decent (I have a bottle of it on me now as I go to visit the aged aunt). They also have a proper Gevrey Chambertin at twenty-five quid which will drink beautifully in a few years. Plus, whisper it, their £4.50 straight AOC claret is perfectly nice also as an everyday drinker.

    That said, always happy to have recommendations from Lidl.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2021

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    "I look to a day when people will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."

    Martin Luther King, Jr.
    Well clearly he was a massive white supremacist....i believe is the thrust of the lots of modern diversity training in regards to those that aspouse such views.
  • Options
    Twitter has lost its collective mind over this 2-point Labour lead: you’d think we’re in a system with daily elections. Here’s what the polls looked like for the 2010-15 parliament. The Tories went on to win the next election by seven points.


    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1436286290362834945?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    The NI rise was baked in, the triple lock freeze was much less broadcast about until it was announced and that is where most of the movement has come with Yougov ie the main movement is over 65s from Tory to RefUK and DK not under 65 to Labour.

    In fact according to Yougov the Tory vote has held up best with those aged 25-49 ie young and middle aged workers who were supposedly most annoyed by the NI rise
    You do have a strange attitude and hard to fathom at times

    Why not just say yes I agree

    You may actually feel quite good after as well
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,445
    "Gerard Baker
    Awful truth about 9/11: the terrorists won
    The war on terror weakened America and cost far more in money, lives and foreign policy distractions than it gained" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/awful-truth-about-9-11-the-terrorists-won-fqtwkp3tj
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    On the polling. If (and that's a big if as so early) this latest poll with lead for Lab is down to the NI increase then that possibly shows that even if people in focus groups tell you they support an idea they might not actually.

    Might we see a similar hit when vaccine passports are introduced?

    Seems popular with public, but will they be when reality hits.

    It is not always inconsistent.

    Take private school tax. Most people are in favour of them losing their charitable tax exemptions.

    But the people whose vote might change because of that is a much much smaller group, who are against such a change. Expect similar with vaccine passports. Almost no-one is going to switch to the govt for such a policy even if people approve. Some people will switch against the govt as they feel strongly about it or it impacts them significantly.
    The real problem with removing the charitable status from many private schools is that they do more demonstrable charitable work - such as allowing their sports facilities to be used free by local schools, bursaries to poorer parents etc - than many "proper charities".

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    IshmaelZ said:

    For those PBers still wetting themselves about the extra £4 a week NI

    Daily Mail has a £5 off £25 spend at LIDL

    First installment covered

    Don't shop at Lidl, don't buy the Mail. Other than that, great plan!
    Maybe you should, and just for you its also in the Metro which is free so you get a free £5 rather than a net£4.20 if you buy the Daily Mail.

    Please feel free to ignore if you are so wealthy that the NI hit barely touches the sides.

    I bought 3 Daily Mails yesterday
    You were robbed, the internet says it's 65p. So net £4.35.

    That's half of a bottle of Lidl's burgundy, mind. TY for the tip.
    Since I bought 3 yesterday

    I can assure you it was 80p not the 65p although the site where i picked up the offer also said the paper was 65p it isnt I have it in my other hand as i type.

    What a paper woke storm this woke storm that About 10 pages on why the Met chief must go.

    Page 18 is good though. You can indeed buy 1 item of alcohol within your £25 spend
  • Options

    That's good news for Labour - narrowing the gap to 4pp in a poll carried out 3-5 September, as you say well before the tax rise. Labour actually 1 point higher than in yesterday's YouGov. It does hint that there are other factors at play as well as this week's events.
    Had we not had the YouGov, had this week's... events... not happened, that ComRes would have felt like another "hmm, not a decisive shift, but another small single figure lead, we didn't used to get any of those, steady closing of the gap but is 39-40% the Conservative floor? If it is, they'll be hard to beat" data point.

    I'm sure that Labour would love to pick up more switchers, but if the "40% like Brexit, 40% will vote for Boris" floor has decisively broken (and of course, it's too early to tell that), that matters.

    It would also help a lot to know if YouGov's Greens on 9-10% is right, or everyone else's 4-6%.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    Couple of facebook references here (X said this on fb, Y said that, there was a spat, etc).

    I have just "come off" facebook.

    I was going to do so several years ago but someone posted a group photo taken 20 years ago of people I hadn't seen for, er, 20 years and we all got in touch again and that made me think it was worth staying on.

    But no. Nothing now useful that I couldn't live without. And I have seen enough hyena vs lion and Canelo vs whomever video clips to last me a while.
  • Options
    Mr. eek/Mr. Chameleon, hmm. Yeah, last time this nonsense happened was for Silverstone so the problem didn't arise.

    I'm not a fan of this stupid change. However, I'm glad you mentioned it as I would've forgotten otherwise. Qualifying's at 5pm today.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Change by region (I know, subsamples):

    Region, London, Rest of South, Midlands/Wales, North, Scotland
    Con, -9, -10, 2, -2, 0
    Lab, -4, 6, -4, 5, -2
    Lib Dem, 6, 4, 1, 0, 1
    SNP, 1, 0, -1, 0, 5
    Plaid Cymru, 0, 0, -2, 0, 0
    Reform UK, 4, 1, 3, 2, -1
    Green, 2, 0, 2, -4, -2
    Other, 1, 1, -2, -1, -1

    So Tories taking a hit in London and the South. They really are an ungrateful bunch of...

    So the Tories went up in the Midlands? Interesting. There are more marginals there than in London and the south combined.
    Tory strength, and continuing strength in the Midlands, is a psephological feature which remains unexplained. But it is vital.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited September 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Change by region (I know, subsamples):

    Region, London, Rest of South, Midlands/Wales, North, Scotland
    Con, -9, -10, 2, -2, 0
    Lab, -4, 6, -4, 5, -2
    Lib Dem, 6, 4, 1, 0, 1
    SNP, 1, 0, -1, 0, 5
    Plaid Cymru, 0, 0, -2, 0, 0
    Reform UK, 4, 1, 3, 2, -1
    Green, 2, 0, 2, -4, -2
    Other, 1, 1, -2, -1, -1

    So Tories taking a hit in London and the South. They really are an ungrateful bunch of...

    So the Tories went up in the Midlands? Interesting. There are more marginals there than in London and the south combined.
    Tory strength, and continuing strength in the Midlands, is a psephological feature which remains unexplained. But it is vital.
    Boris seems to have an added appeal in the Midlands with white working class voters relative to the average Tory leader, much like Trump had in the Midwest relative to the average Republican candidate.

    Even in 2020 Trump won every Midwestern state Bush won in 2000 and 2004 while in 2016 he added Wisconsin and Michigan too
  • Options

    Really useful chart from @EdConwaySky - its been hard to get this data - shows most deaths in unvax but over 80 years - around 1/3 are vaccine breakthroughs -showing why we need boosters

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1436285721120227330?s=19

    ... boosters for the elderly. NOT everyone. As Dame Gilbert told the Telegraph.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    For those PBers still wetting themselves about the extra £4 a week NI

    Daily Mail has a £5 off £25 spend at LIDL

    First installment covered

    Don't shop at Lidl, don't buy the Mail. Other than that, great plan!
    Maybe you should, and just for you its also in the Metro which is free so you get a free £5 rather than a net£4.20 if you buy the Daily Mail.

    Please feel free to ignore if you are so wealthy that the NI hit barely touches the sides.

    I bought 3 Daily Mails yesterday
    You were robbed, the internet says it's 65p. So net £4.35.

    That's half of a bottle of Lidl's burgundy, mind. TY for the tip.
    What on earth are you doing buying wine at Lidl ffs.

    Aldi is where you want to be. Their house champagne is extremely decent (I have a bottle of it on me now as I go to visit the aged aunt). They also have a proper Gevrey Chambertin at twenty-five quid which will drink beautifully in a few years. Plus, whisper it, their £4.50 straight AOC claret is perfectly nice also as an everyday drinker.

    That said, always happy to have recommendations from Lidl.
    +1 - Aldi's wine selection is decent, their ice wine is something we keep an eye out for its arrival as it usually sells out quickly.

    They should also have an interesting sparkling red later this month if Aldi are following last years calendar
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Farooq said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    "I look to a day when people will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."

    Martin Luther King, Jr.
    If you're going to quote Martin Luther King whilst discussing this issue, it might be useful to know that he supported affirmative action.
    Yes. He's becoming the new Orwell. Quoted out of context to prove the opposite of what he believed.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    TOPPING said:

    Couple of facebook references here (X said this on fb, Y said that, there was a spat, etc).

    I have just "come off" facebook.

    I was going to do so several years ago but someone posted a group photo taken 20 years ago of people I hadn't seen for, er, 20 years and we all got in touch again and that made me think it was worth staying on.

    But no. Nothing now useful that I couldn't live without. And I have seen enough hyena vs lion and Canelo vs whomever video clips to last me a while.

    Facebook is a great way to remind you of why you stopped talking to those people in the first place.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2021

    Really useful chart from @EdConwaySky - its been hard to get this data - shows most deaths in unvax but over 80 years - around 1/3 are vaccine breakthroughs -showing why we need boosters

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1436285721120227330?s=19

    ... boosters for the elderly. NOT everyone. As Dame Gilbert told the Telegraph.
    I don't think many people have been arguing for triple jabbing younger adults, certainly not any time soon, as at a minimum need 6-8 month gap.

    The debate is should it be all oldies or just ones with specific conditions. Adam Finn has repeatedly been in the media saying the later.
  • Options
    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    Farooq said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    "I look to a day when people will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."

    Martin Luther King, Jr.
    If you're going to quote Martin Luther King whilst discussing this issue, it might be useful to know that he supported affirmative action.
    A belated welcome. Looks like you are going to provide a welcome logical counterpoint to some of the political correctness gone mad team.

    That is unless you ever disagree with me/pull me up in which case you are wholly mistaken and labouring under a massive misapprehension.

    :smile:
  • Options

    Really useful chart from @EdConwaySky - its been hard to get this data - shows most deaths in unvax but over 80 years - around 1/3 are vaccine breakthroughs -showing why we need boosters

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1436285721120227330?s=19

    ... boosters for the elderly. NOT everyone. As Dame Gilbert told the Telegraph.
    That's what the evidence points to....
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    Indeed, people don't pay attention until they need to.
    Exactly right.

    I have been banging on about comparisons with Brown's massive blunder on the old 10p rate. It was reversed AFTER being imposed IIRC because people simply didn't grasp the consequences until it actually hit their pay packets.

    I finally sourced the story.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-revolt-cancelled-after-10p-tax-u-turn-814266.html

    Huge parallel with Bozza's Jobs Tax – it will end up being revoked IMO.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    maaarsh said:

    ONS infection survey has finally caught up with the SNP shit-show, nearly double the English rate and growing rapidly so the conspiracy theories that higher cases was due to better testing can be put to bed.

    I don't think its fair to blame the SNP. There's no legal restrictions in England, so what are the Scots meant to be doing to make infections higher?

    Its just a case that an exit wave needs to occur and places like Cornwall and the Highlands and elsewhere that had lower cases earlier in the pandemic seem to be catching up now.

    No idea what's going on in Glasgow though. That's been high throughout and is high now so seems odd.
    Glasgow has been high for Scotland. It is only in this latest wave that it is high for the UK.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    The BBC now have highlights on Sunday Afternoon of Emma's US Open final.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    Andy_JS said:

    "Gerard Baker
    Awful truth about 9/11: the terrorists won
    The war on terror weakened America and cost far more in money, lives and foreign policy distractions than it gained" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/awful-truth-about-9-11-the-terrorists-won-fqtwkp3tj

    Well Bin Laden is dead
  • Options

    Really useful chart from @EdConwaySky - its been hard to get this data - shows most deaths in unvax but over 80 years - around 1/3 are vaccine breakthroughs -showing why we need boosters

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1436285721120227330?s=19

    ... boosters for the elderly. NOT everyone. As Dame Gilbert told the Telegraph.
    It surely just makes sense to offer it to groups 1-9 again, in the same order they were offered it last time?

    Personally going off memory my second jab was about 2 months ago so if we assume it lasts at peak efficiency about 9 months that's going to take me through the winter anyway.

    But health workers in groups 1 and 2, or 80+ year olds, its madness not offering it to them yet.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    Indeed, people don't pay attention until they need to.
    Exactly right.

    I have been banging on about comparisons with Brown's massive blunder on the old 10p rate. It was reversed AFTER being imposed IIRC because people simply didn't grasp the consequences until it actually hit their pay packets.

    I finally sourced the story.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-revolt-cancelled-after-10p-tax-u-turn-814266.html

    Huge parallel with Bozza's Jobs Tax – it will end up being revoked IMO.
    I suspect it won't be revoked because there is no other way of collecting the same amount of tax without annoying pensioners.

  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,116

    Really useful chart from @EdConwaySky - its been hard to get this data - shows most deaths in unvax but over 80 years - around 1/3 are vaccine breakthroughs -showing why we need boosters

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1436285721120227330?s=19

    Possibly, but some over 80 (or indeed most) have much weaker immune systems anyway, certainly some of these will have been very frail.
  • Options
    eek said:

    The BBC now have highlights on Sunday Afternoon of Emma's US Open final.

    Or i can watch it anytime with Amazon Prime....
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    IshmaelZ said:

    For those PBers still wetting themselves about the extra £4 a week NI

    Daily Mail has a £5 off £25 spend at LIDL

    First installment covered

    Don't shop at Lidl, don't buy the Mail. Other than that, great plan!
    Maybe you should, and just for you its also in the Metro which is free so you get a free £5 rather than a net£4.20 if you buy the Daily Mail.

    Please feel free to ignore if you are so wealthy that the NI hit barely touches the sides.

    I bought 3 Daily Mails yesterday
    You were robbed, the internet says it's 65p. So net £4.35.

    That's half of a bottle of Lidl's burgundy, mind. TY for the tip.
    Via Asian Trader in March 2021

    "Daily Mail maintains retailer margins with cover price rise The cover price rises to 80p on Monday (March 29) and the stockists will earn 17.85p for every copy sold, which means an extra 2p per copy."
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gerard Baker
    Awful truth about 9/11: the terrorists won
    The war on terror weakened America and cost far more in money, lives and foreign policy distractions than it gained" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/awful-truth-about-9-11-the-terrorists-won-fqtwkp3tj

    Well Bin Laden is dead
    Rumsfeld, too
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    "I look to a day when people will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."

    Martin Luther King, Jr.
    If you're going to quote Martin Luther King whilst discussing this issue, it might be useful to know that he supported affirmative action.
    Yes. He's becoming the new Orwell. Quoted out of context to prove the opposite of what he believed.
    Gonna have to stop you there, if that's a coded claim that Orwell genuinely had it in for the right but was only kidding about the left. Wrong.

    His great fault was that he was a house-trained nihilist, deep down. Very difficult to pin down what he was in favour of.
  • Options
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    For those PBers still wetting themselves about the extra £4 a week NI

    Daily Mail has a £5 off £25 spend at LIDL

    First installment covered

    Don't shop at Lidl, don't buy the Mail. Other than that, great plan!
    Maybe you should, and just for you its also in the Metro which is free so you get a free £5 rather than a net£4.20 if you buy the Daily Mail.

    Please feel free to ignore if you are so wealthy that the NI hit barely touches the sides.

    I bought 3 Daily Mails yesterday
    You were robbed, the internet says it's 65p. So net £4.35.

    That's half of a bottle of Lidl's burgundy, mind. TY for the tip.
    What on earth are you doing buying wine at Lidl ffs.

    Aldi is where you want to be. Their house champagne is extremely decent (I have a bottle of it on me now as I go to visit the aged aunt). They also have a proper Gevrey Chambertin at twenty-five quid which will drink beautifully in a few years. Plus, whisper it, their £4.50 straight AOC claret is perfectly nice also as an everyday drinker.

    That said, always happy to have recommendations from Lidl.
    +1 - Aldi's wine selection is decent, their ice wine is something we keep an eye out for its arrival as it usually sells out quickly.

    They should also have an interesting sparkling red later this month if Aldi are following last years calendar
    I've not tried their wine but got some beer for myself and flavoured cider for my wife last time I was there. Both were very good. Would have both again, she actually said she preferred the cider over Kopparberg.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    Farooq said:

    TOPPING said:

    Couple of facebook references here (X said this on fb, Y said that, there was a spat, etc).

    I have just "come off" facebook.

    I was going to do so several years ago but someone posted a group photo taken 20 years ago of people I hadn't seen for, er, 20 years and we all got in touch again and that made me think it was worth staying on.

    But no. Nothing now useful that I couldn't live without. And I have seen enough hyena vs lion and Canelo vs whomever video clips to last me a while.

    Facebook is a great way to remind you of why you stopped talking to those people in the first place.
    Very true. Plus you might reconnect with someone from years ago only to find, and I am no social butterfly, that there is "no room" to add someone else to your social life, which has evolved over the years and as you say, those not in it are not in it for a reason, even if that is a benign reason.
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    edited September 2021

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    Indeed, people don't pay attention until they need to.
    Exactly right.

    I have been banging on about comparisons with Brown's massive blunder on the old 10p rate. It was reversed AFTER being imposed IIRC because people simply didn't grasp the consequences until it actually hit their pay packets.

    I finally sourced the story.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-revolt-cancelled-after-10p-tax-u-turn-814266.html

    Huge parallel with Bozza's Jobs Tax – it will end up being revoked IMO.
    Brown sold that as reducing the tax rate on lower income workers. i.e. Look, I've scrapped the 10p tax!

    The reality was the exact opposite as they would pay 20p instead of 10p. Boris is at least being up front that this is a tax rise.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I wonder what the sight of parents wearing masks for no particular reason does to small children. We will I suppose have to wait for any conclusions and those will be hazy at best.
  • Options

    maaarsh said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    You've obviously not been through any recent corporate equality training, where you'll be told that colour blind approaches are actually just tools to maintain white dominance in society. The best is when you're invited to engage but you have a mortgage to pay.
    The state of this....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9972175/Google-staff-undergoing-controversial-antiracism-training.html
    The trouble with Critical Race Theory, apart from being an insult to the intelligence and repressive, is that it is going to create an ugly reaction. If you had to design an ideology to promote race war then could you come up with a better one?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Watching ITV 4 to work out what time I need to stroll out and see the Tour of Britain roll through my village.
    And giving thanks I'm not climbing Hartside in this weather.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    Christ shocked at prices of newspaper Daily Star only 55p though

    http://jackiesnews.co.uk/newspaper-prices/
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Change by region (I know, subsamples):

    Region, London, Rest of South, Midlands/Wales, North, Scotland
    Con, -9, -10, 2, -2, 0
    Lab, -4, 6, -4, 5, -2
    Lib Dem, 6, 4, 1, 0, 1
    SNP, 1, 0, -1, 0, 5
    Plaid Cymru, 0, 0, -2, 0, 0
    Reform UK, 4, 1, 3, 2, -1
    Green, 2, 0, 2, -4, -2
    Other, 1, 1, -2, -1, -1

    So Tories taking a hit in London and the South. They really are an ungrateful bunch of...

    So the Tories went up in the Midlands? Interesting. There are more marginals there than in London and the south combined.
    Tory strength, and continuing strength in the Midlands, is a psephological feature which remains unexplained. But it is vital.
    Boris seems to have an added appeal in the Midlands with white working class voters relative to the average Tory leader, much like Trump had in the Midwest relative to the average Republican candidate.

    Even in 2020 Trump won every Midwestern state Bush won in 2000 and 2004 while in 2016 he added Wisconsin and Michigan too
    He does indeed.
    WHY this should be so, I have yet to see satisfactorily explained.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I absolutely defend your right to choose, but I'd challenge your 'harmless' contention.

    Mask wearing is not harmless, it is a trade-off of harm vs spreading the virus.

    Humans are not meant to wander around with their faces covered. The face, and seeing each other's expressions, are the fundamental tenets of building trust, both with strangers and acquaintances.

    The idea that mask-wearing is a zero-downside practice is deeply wrong, and flies in the face of decades of psychological research that shows that looking people – quite literally – in the mouth is a vital function of all human relationships.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    "I look to a day when people will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."

    Martin Luther King, Jr.
    If you're going to quote Martin Luther King whilst discussing this issue, it might be useful to know that he supported affirmative action.
    Yes. He's becoming the new Orwell. Quoted out of context to prove the opposite of what he believed.
    Gonna have to stop you there, if that's a coded claim that Orwell genuinely had it in for the right but was only kidding about the left. Wrong.

    His great fault was that he was a house-trained nihilist, deep down. Very difficult to pin down what he was in favour of.
    One does however get the impression that he would stand in front of a Chinese (Mao era) poster illustrating the nobility of the workers, hammers and sickles akimbo, and gape in awe.

    Apart of course from his the working class smell aberration.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    edited September 2021
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    Indeed, people don't pay attention until they need to.
    Exactly right.

    I have been banging on about comparisons with Brown's massive blunder on the old 10p rate. It was reversed AFTER being imposed IIRC because people simply didn't grasp the consequences until it actually hit their pay packets.

    I finally sourced the story.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-revolt-cancelled-after-10p-tax-u-turn-814266.html

    Huge parallel with Bozza's Jobs Tax – it will end up being revoked IMO.
    I suspect it won't be revoked because there is no other way of collecting the same amount of tax without annoying pensioners.

    I agree

    I do not see it being revoked but as I have maintained it is not enough nor is it fair

    Rishi could redeem himself somewhat in the budget if he addresses the unfairness by looking at CGT and IHT
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    The Price of the Daily Mail must be among the dullest PB debates of all time, in a very competitive and crowded field.
  • Options

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    You can make your choice and I respect that.

    I can make my own choice.

    That's how a civilised society works.

    In my humble opinion, wearing masks at this stage of the pandemic is moronic. In my humble opinion it is both futile and counterproductive.

    But I don't see to prevent you from wearing one if you choose to do so. I simply have made and expressed my own opinion, that is all.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    Indeed, people don't pay attention until they need to.
    Exactly right.

    I have been banging on about comparisons with Brown's massive blunder on the old 10p rate. It was reversed AFTER being imposed IIRC because people simply didn't grasp the consequences until it actually hit their pay packets.

    I finally sourced the story.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-revolt-cancelled-after-10p-tax-u-turn-814266.html

    Huge parallel with Bozza's Jobs Tax – it will end up being revoked IMO.
    I suspect it won't be revoked because there is no other way of collecting the same amount of tax without annoying pensioners.

    We'll see. If it continues to burn away at their poll ratings a la the Dementia Tax, they'll drop it like a stone.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Change by region (I know, subsamples):

    Region, London, Rest of South, Midlands/Wales, North, Scotland
    Con, -9, -10, 2, -2, 0
    Lab, -4, 6, -4, 5, -2
    Lib Dem, 6, 4, 1, 0, 1
    SNP, 1, 0, -1, 0, 5
    Plaid Cymru, 0, 0, -2, 0, 0
    Reform UK, 4, 1, 3, 2, -1
    Green, 2, 0, 2, -4, -2
    Other, 1, 1, -2, -1, -1

    So Tories taking a hit in London and the South. They really are an ungrateful bunch of...

    So the Tories went up in the Midlands? Interesting. There are more marginals there than in London and the south combined.
    Tory strength, and continuing strength in the Midlands, is a psephological feature which remains unexplained. But it is vital.
    Boris seems to have an added appeal in the Midlands with white working class voters relative to the average Tory leader, much like Trump had in the Midwest relative to the average Republican candidate.

    Even in 2020 Trump won every Midwestern state Bush won in 2000 and 2004 while in 2016 he added Wisconsin and Michigan too
    He does indeed.
    WHY this should be so, I have yet to see satisfactorily explained.
    Probably has something to do with Brexit, remember the Midlands was the strongest Leave region.

    Plus it has fewer pensioners than the South who will be annoyed by the triple lock freeze and fewer young high earners like London who will be annoyed by the NI rise
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    AlistairM said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    Indeed, people don't pay attention until they need to.
    Exactly right.

    I have been banging on about comparisons with Brown's massive blunder on the old 10p rate. It was reversed AFTER being imposed IIRC because people simply didn't grasp the consequences until it actually hit their pay packets.

    I finally sourced the story.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-revolt-cancelled-after-10p-tax-u-turn-814266.html

    Huge parallel with Bozza's Jobs Tax – it will end up being revoked IMO.
    Brown sold that as reducing the tax rate on lower income workers. i.e. Look, I've scrapped the 10p tax!

    The reality was the exact opposite as they would pay 20p instead of 10p. Boris is at least being up front that this is a tax rise.
    That is true, and a fair point, but I still think it's a burner.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited September 2021

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    Indeed, people don't pay attention until they need to.
    Exactly right.

    I have been banging on about comparisons with Brown's massive blunder on the old 10p rate. It was reversed AFTER being imposed IIRC because people simply didn't grasp the consequences until it actually hit their pay packets.

    I finally sourced the story.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-revolt-cancelled-after-10p-tax-u-turn-814266.html

    Huge parallel with Bozza's Jobs Tax – it will end up being revoked IMO.
    I suspect it won't be revoked because there is no other way of collecting the same amount of tax without annoying pensioners.

    We'll see. If it continues to burn away at their poll ratings a la the Dementia Tax, they'll drop it like a stone.
    It is the triple lock freeze which has hit the Tory rating more than the NI rise, the biggest fall in the Tory share with yougov is with over 65s.

    Restoring the triple lock rise is therefore more of a priority after next year for Tories than a cut in NI, though ideally NI will be cut too before the next general election
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,445
    edited September 2021

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I absolutely defend your right to choose, but I'd challenge your 'harmless' contention.

    Mask wearing is not harmless, it is a trade-off of harm vs spreading the virus.

    Humans are not meant to wander around with their faces covered. The face, and seeing each other's expressions, are the fundamental tenets of building trust, both with strangers and acquaintances.

    The idea that mask-wearing is a zero-downside practice is deeply wrong, and flies in the face of decades of psychological research that shows that looking people – quite literally – in the mouth is a vital function of all human relationships.
    Also, the fact that most people aren't shaking hands with each other is probably having a detrimental effect on society.

    https://www.everydayhealth.com/healthy-living/impact-touching-behavior/
    https://www.ourfabriq.com/article/friends-holding-hands
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I wonder what the sight of parents wearing masks for no particular reason does to small children. We will I suppose have to wait for any conclusions and those will be hazy at best.
    Absolutely none at all, would be my guess. Especially as kids will be well aware that there was a reason, and may even know people who have the virus at the moment, or people who are off school because of it.
  • Options

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    Indeed, people don't pay attention until they need to.
    Exactly right.

    I have been banging on about comparisons with Brown's massive blunder on the old 10p rate. It was reversed AFTER being imposed IIRC because people simply didn't grasp the consequences until it actually hit their pay packets.

    I finally sourced the story.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-revolt-cancelled-after-10p-tax-u-turn-814266.html

    Huge parallel with Bozza's Jobs Tax – it will end up being revoked IMO.
    I suspect it won't be revoked because there is no other way of collecting the same amount of tax without annoying pensioners.

    We'll see. If it continues to burn away at their poll ratings a la the Dementia Tax, they'll drop it like a stone.
    The problem is the money is needed and it is a plan though it is unfair

    I have absolutely no doubt it will be on everyone's payslips from April 22 and hypothecated in April 23
  • Options

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    You can make your choice and I respect that.

    I can make my own choice.

    That's how a civilised society works.

    In my humble opinion, wearing masks at this stage of the pandemic is moronic. In my humble opinion it is both futile and counterproductive.

    But I don't see to prevent you from wearing one if you choose to do so. I simply have made and expressed my own opinion, that is all.
    You evidently don't respect it, if you choose to call it terms such as 'moronic'.
  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    CarlottaVance said:

    NICOLA Sturgeon has flatly dismissed criticism of her controversial gender reforms as “not valid” just days after being accused of ignoring women’s concerns.

    The First Minister urged people to focus on “real threats” to women’s safety and women’s rights, not moves to help trans people change their gender in the eyes of the law.

    However Ms Sturgeon also suggested that, with some SNP ministers uneasy about the change, there could be a free vote at Holyrood on it, rather than a whipped one.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19571909.nicola-sturgeon-dismisses-concerns-gender-reforms-not-valid/?ref=twtrec

    A free vote on a manifesto commitment?

    From the crazy power addicted dictator , not a chance.

    Ms Sturgeon has a legal issue on her hands with her proposal - whether she has the ability to make the changes she apparently wants.

    Equal opportunities are a reserved matter - specifically, the Equal Pay Act 1970 and the Sex Discrimination Act 1975. There is an exception to this, namely, the encouragement of "equal opportunities" by Holyrood.

    But “Equal opportunities” in the relevant legislation has been defined as -

    "the prevention, elimination or regulation of discrimination between persons on grounds of sex or marital status, on racial grounds, or on grounds of disability, age, sexual orientation, language or social origin, or of other personal attributes, including beliefs or opinions, such as religious beliefs or political opinions."

    This creates 2 problems for Ms Sturgeon: permitting self-ID does not come within this exception. Second, changing the definition of what it means to be a "woman" undermines and will affect the sex-based rights and sex-based definitions contained in the Equal Pay and Sex Discrimination Acts, which are reserved to Westminster. So she may not have the legal power to do what she wants to do.

    The other issue is a practical one. She claims to want to protect women's safety and rights. This statistic from the Ministry of Justice is an interesting one.

    The % of male prisoners in the UK general male population who have been convicted of sex offences is 19%. Amongst those self-ID'd as transwomen the % is 48%.

    That is a striking difference. Either it means that men identifying as women are a much more likely to be sex offenders, in which case self-ID is pretty dangerous for women. The former seems unlikely. There is little other evidence to suggest that those who genuinely are transwomen ie have gender dysphoria are more likely to be sex offenders.

    Or it suggests that men who attack women are abusing the system and will abuse any further loopholes or opportunities which are created. If so, then how are women's protections to be maintained?

    This is one of the many concerns that women in Scotland have. And one reason why they have been demonstrating outside Holyrood, something which Sturgeon now wants to turn into a criminal offence. Sturgeon would do better to listen to the concerns of women rather than shout "shame" at them for raising them.

    I see a bright new star has emerged in the constellation of PBSE.

    On the highlighted issue you might do better to direct your ire at the Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body who have proposed this (bringing Holyrood in to line with Westminster and Cardiff), particularly the 4 out of 5 who are not SNP MSPs, and especially the Con & Lab msps who in your interpretation presumably have rolled over in the face of Sturgeon's minatory dictatorship.

    For the avoidance of doubt I don't think making it easier for the police to remove protesters is a good move but see it as administrative bodies getting over enthusiastic about the old administering as they tend to do. However I recognise stopping folk from hammering square facts into the round holes of their desired narrative is a pretty hopeless task.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    TOPPING said:

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I wonder what the sight of parents wearing masks for no particular reason does to small children. We will I suppose have to wait for any conclusions and those will be hazy at best.
    I think we can already guess that the conclusions won't be good: there is a metric tonne of research that shows how infants develop by interacting with open faces.

    Smiles matter. A lot.
  • Options

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    You can make your choice and I respect that.

    I can make my own choice.

    That's how a civilised society works.

    In my humble opinion, wearing masks at this stage of the pandemic is moronic. In my humble opinion it is both futile and counterproductive.

    But I don't see to prevent you from wearing one if you choose to do so. I simply have made and expressed my own opinion, that is all.
    You evidently don't respect it, if you choose to call it terms such as 'moronic'.
    I respect your right to make your choice, even if I don't respect your choice.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    "I look to a day when people will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."

    Martin Luther King, Jr.
    If you're going to quote Martin Luther King whilst discussing this issue, it might be useful to know that he supported affirmative action.
    Yes. He's becoming the new Orwell. Quoted out of context to prove the opposite of what he believed.
    Gonna have to stop you there, if that's a coded claim that Orwell genuinely had it in for the right but was only kidding about the left. Wrong.

    His great fault was that he was a house-trained nihilist, deep down. Very difficult to pin down what he was in favour of.
    No I'm not claiming that. But there is no doubt he was a man of the Left. The far Left in many ways. Although deep down an iconoclast. His great attribute was to apply this equally, without fear or favour. He never spared his own side from criticism to advance a political point. A very rare attribute.
    He despaired of the moderate timidity of Attlee for example. I seriously doubt he ever considered a Tory vote.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited September 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gerard Baker
    Awful truth about 9/11: the terrorists won
    The war on terror weakened America and cost far more in money, lives and foreign policy distractions than it gained" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/awful-truth-about-9-11-the-terrorists-won-fqtwkp3tj

    Well Bin Laden is dead
    You can kill a man, you can't kill an idea.

    Ironically it's a phrase first noted in the US that sums up the big flaw in their counter-terrorism strategy over the past 20 years.
  • Options

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I absolutely defend your right to choose, but I'd challenge your 'harmless' contention.

    Mask wearing is not harmless, it is a trade-off of harm vs spreading the virus.

    Humans are not meant to wander around with their faces covered. The face, and seeing each other's expressions, are the fundamental tenets of building trust, both with strangers and acquaintances.

    The idea that mask-wearing is a zero-downside practice is deeply wrong, and flies in the face of decades of psychological research that shows that looking people – quite literally – in the mouth is a vital function of all human relationships.
    I'll have to remember to 'look you in the mouth' if we ever meet, and give your teeth a good inspection ;)
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    Indeed, people don't pay attention until they need to.
    Exactly right.

    I have been banging on about comparisons with Brown's massive blunder on the old 10p rate. It was reversed AFTER being imposed IIRC because people simply didn't grasp the consequences until it actually hit their pay packets.

    I finally sourced the story.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-revolt-cancelled-after-10p-tax-u-turn-814266.html

    Huge parallel with Bozza's Jobs Tax – it will end up being revoked IMO.
    I suspect it won't be revoked because there is no other way of collecting the same amount of tax without annoying pensioners.

    We'll see. If it continues to burn away at their poll ratings a la the Dementia Tax, they'll drop it like a stone.
    It is the triple lock freeze which has hit the Tory rating more than the NI rise, the biggest fall in the Tory share with yougov is with over 65s.

    Restoring the triple lock rise is therefore more of a priority after next year for Tories than a cut in NI, though ideally NI will be cut too before the next general election
    The suspension of the triple lock is only for one year
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    maaarsh said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    You've obviously not been through any recent corporate equality training, where you'll be told that colour blind approaches are actually just tools to maintain white dominance in society. The best is when you're invited to engage but you have a mortgage to pay.
    The state of this....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9972175/Google-staff-undergoing-controversial-antiracism-training.html
    The trouble with Critical Race Theory, apart from being an insult to the intelligence and repressive, is that it is going to create an ugly reaction. If you had to design an ideology to promote race war then could you come up with a better one?
    Yes, I do believe I could
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I absolutely defend your right to choose, but I'd challenge your 'harmless' contention.

    Mask wearing is not harmless, it is a trade-off of harm vs spreading the virus.

    Humans are not meant to wander around with their faces covered. The face, and seeing each other's expressions, are the fundamental tenets of building trust, both with strangers and acquaintances.

    The idea that mask-wearing is a zero-downside practice is deeply wrong, and flies in the face of decades of psychological research that shows that looking people – quite literally – in the mouth is a vital function of all human relationships.
    Also, the fact that most people aren't shaking hands with each other is probably having a detrimental effect on society.

    https://www.everydayhealth.com/healthy-living/impact-touching-behavior/
    https://www.ourfabriq.com/article/friends-holding-hands
    That is also very true – and an excellent point. I have noticed handshaking coming back, albeit among high-value range of friendships. It appears to have gained greater currency as a gesture, if anything.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    edited September 2021

    TOPPING said:

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I wonder what the sight of parents wearing masks for no particular reason does to small children. We will I suppose have to wait for any conclusions and those will be hazy at best.
    Absolutely none at all, would be my guess. Especially as kids will be well aware that there was a reason, and may even know people who have the virus at the moment, or people who are off school because of it.
    "Absolutely none"

    There you go. My view is that there will be some psychological damage to children to see adults wearing masks when not necessary and yours is that there will be absolutely none. All good as far as it goes.

    But let's look at the scenario if we are wrong (perish the thought).

    If I am wrong then that is brilliant - no psychological damage. If you are wrong, however, then that is not so good - children do suffer psychological damage from seeing adults wearing masks unnecessarily.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I absolutely defend your right to choose, but I'd challenge your 'harmless' contention.

    Mask wearing is not harmless, it is a trade-off of harm vs spreading the virus.

    Humans are not meant to wander around with their faces covered. The face, and seeing each other's expressions, are the fundamental tenets of building trust, both with strangers and acquaintances.

    The idea that mask-wearing is a zero-downside practice is deeply wrong, and flies in the face of decades of psychological research that shows that looking people – quite literally – in the mouth is a vital function of all human relationships.
    I'll have to remember to 'look you in the mouth' if we ever meet, and give your teeth a good inspection ;)
    A flippant response to a fair argument from me.

    What do you think of my point?
  • Options

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    You can make your choice and I respect that.

    I can make my own choice.

    That's how a civilised society works.

    In my humble opinion, wearing masks at this stage of the pandemic is moronic. In my humble opinion it is both futile and counterproductive.

    But I don't see to prevent you from wearing one if you choose to do so. I simply have made and expressed my own opinion, that is all.
    You evidently don't respect it, if you choose to call it terms such as 'moronic'.
    I respect your right to make your choice, even if I don't respect your choice.
    And yet, despite the high case numbers and everything else atm, you regard that choice as 'moronic'. I think you're very well off-piste.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    edited September 2021

    eek said:

    The BBC now have highlights on Sunday Afternoon of Emma's US Open final.

    Or i can watch it anytime with Amazon Prime....
    Well you can watch it live at 21:00 tomorrow on Amazon prime or the highlights afterwards.

    Interestingly Emma pointed out after both her Quarter and Semi Finals that Tim Henman is providing support / reassurance / advice from the court side position he has for the Amazon commentary.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    "I look to a day when people will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."

    Martin Luther King, Jr.
    If you're going to quote Martin Luther King whilst discussing this issue, it might be useful to know that he supported affirmative action.
    Yes. He's becoming the new Orwell. Quoted out of context to prove the opposite of what he believed.
    Gonna have to stop you there, if that's a coded claim that Orwell genuinely had it in for the right but was only kidding about the left. Wrong.

    His great fault was that he was a house-trained nihilist, deep down. Very difficult to pin down what he was in favour of.
    No I'm not claiming that. But there is no doubt he was a man of the Left. The far Left in many ways. Although deep down an iconoclast. His great attribute was to apply this equally, without fear or favour. He never spared his own side from criticism to advance a political point. A very rare attribute.
    He despaired of the moderate timidity of Attlee for example. I seriously doubt he ever considered a Tory vote.
    All I can be sure about is that he volunteered to fight "fascism" (I won't get into the debate about whether Franco was fascist). That's a decent enough start, and should be good enough for all most of us.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,382
    edited September 2021

    On the polling. If (and that's a big if as so early) this latest poll with lead for Lab is down to the NI increase then that possibly shows that even if people in focus groups tell you they support an idea they might not actually.

    Might we see a similar hit when vaccine passports are introduced?

    Seems popular with public, but will they be when reality hits.

    It is not always inconsistent.

    Take private school tax. Most people are in favour of them losing their charitable tax exemptions.

    But the people whose vote might change because of that is a much much smaller group, who are against such a change. Expect similar with vaccine passports. Almost no-one is going to switch to the govt for such a policy even if people approve. Some people will switch against the govt as they feel strongly about it or it impacts them significantly.
    The real problem with removing the charitable status from many private schools is that they do more demonstrable charitable work - such as allowing their sports facilities to be used free by local schools, bursaries to poorer parents etc - than many "proper charities".

    Suspect that the net cost to the state of removing independent school charitable status will be quite a number of billions, in addition to the loss of diversity in education.

    A high price to pay for obsolete political dogma.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,977
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gerard Baker
    Awful truth about 9/11: the terrorists won
    The war on terror weakened America and cost far more in money, lives and foreign policy distractions than it gained" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/awful-truth-about-9-11-the-terrorists-won-fqtwkp3tj

    Well Bin Laden is dead
    They got him via an ISI walk in to the US embassy in islamabad who wanted the $25m reward. It didn't require a $2 trillion 20 year occupation of a completely different country.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    edited September 2021

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Com Res has lead down from 6 to 4

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    3m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+2)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 03 - 05 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 29 Aug

    Main difference to that poll from Yougov is there is no Con to RefUK switching and fewer DKs. Hence the Tories are on 40% with ComRes but only 33% with Yougov despite Labour being only 1% up on Yougov with Comres and the LDs 1% down (though Comres also have the Greens significantly lower than Yougov)
    The main difference is it was before the tax rise
    The tax rise has been reported to be coming in the press and media for over a week.

    The main difference is Yougov have RefUK and the Greens far higher than other pollsters as well as DKs higher too, we wait to see if that is replicated in other pollsters post NI rise and triple lock freeze.

    If it is then based on Comres pre rise and freeze and Yougov after the main movement we would see would be pensioners moving from Tory to RefUK or DK after the triple lock freeze
    The full extent of the bombshell announcement was certainly not known and it is only valid to compare polls post the announcement
    Indeed, people don't pay attention until they need to.
    Exactly right.

    I have been banging on about comparisons with Brown's massive blunder on the old 10p rate. It was reversed AFTER being imposed IIRC because people simply didn't grasp the consequences until it actually hit their pay packets.

    I finally sourced the story.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-revolt-cancelled-after-10p-tax-u-turn-814266.html

    Huge parallel with Bozza's Jobs Tax – it will end up being revoked IMO.
    I suspect it won't be revoked because there is no other way of collecting the same amount of tax without annoying pensioners.

    We'll see. If it continues to burn away at their poll ratings a la the Dementia Tax, they'll drop it like a stone.
    The problem is the money is needed and it is a plan though it is unfair

    I have absolutely no doubt it will be on everyone's payslips from April 22 and hypothecated in April 23
    We'll see. I can see it being introduced in April and either revoked, or else paid back via some sort of beneficiary countermeasure when the public hit the effing roof.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821

    The Price of the Daily Mail must be among the dullest PB debates of all time, in a very competitive and crowded field.

    £5 off £25 at LIDL is essential information for the working poor after their tax rise though.
  • Options

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I absolutely defend your right to choose, but I'd challenge your 'harmless' contention.

    Mask wearing is not harmless, it is a trade-off of harm vs spreading the virus.

    Humans are not meant to wander around with their faces covered. The face, and seeing each other's expressions, are the fundamental tenets of building trust, both with strangers and acquaintances.

    The idea that mask-wearing is a zero-downside practice is deeply wrong, and flies in the face of decades of psychological research that shows that looking people – quite literally – in the mouth is a vital function of all human relationships.
    I'll have to remember to 'look you in the mouth' if we ever meet, and give your teeth a good inspection ;)
    You should, that's how we communicate.

    My youngest daughter is currently undergoing speech therapy because she doesn't enunciate all her sounds properly, and the wearing of masks at school through her reception year when school wasn't locked down etc has really been counterproductive. Her teacher's been cursing it whenever we speak on the subject, quite rightly saying you can't teach phonics properly with a mask on.

    I don't really think about how you make certain sounds, you just do, but children learn from looking at your teeth etc while you speak. So we're currently working on the 'f' sound which requires putting your top teeth on your bottom lip "like a bunny" and blowing. Our advice is to try and practice this as much as possible with her, and to make a point of showing the teeth when doing so.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    MattW said:

    On the polling. If (and that's a big if as so early) this latest poll with lead for Lab is down to the NI increase then that possibly shows that even if people in focus groups tell you they support an idea they might not actually.

    Might we see a similar hit when vaccine passports are introduced?

    Seems popular with public, but will they be when reality hits.

    It is not always inconsistent.

    Take private school tax. Most people are in favour of them losing their charitable tax exemptions.

    But the people whose vote might change because of that is a much much smaller group, who are against such a change. Expect similar with vaccine passports. Almost no-one is going to switch to the govt for such a policy even if people approve. Some people will switch against the govt as they feel strongly about it or it impacts them significantly.
    The real problem with removing the charitable status from many private schools is that they do more demonstrable charitable work - such as allowing their sports facilities to be used free by local schools, bursaries to poorer parents etc - than many "proper charities".

    Suspect that the net cost to the state of removing independent school charitable status will be quite a number of billions, in addition to the loss of diversity in education.

    A high price to pay for political dogma.
    It's one of those ideas that looks great but falls apart instantly when you work through the consequences. It really does need to be quietly dropped and the reasons explained quietly were people to ask where it's gone.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,227
    TOPPING said:

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I wonder what the sight of parents wearing masks for no particular reason does to small children. We will I suppose have to wait for any conclusions and those will be hazy at best.
    Do you have the same worries about parents wearing scarves or sunglasses? What about a very bushy moustache?
  • Options
    F1: for anyone wondering there will not be a pre-qualifying ramble, as it's a Friday, which means I'm doing some work, shockingly.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gerard Baker
    Awful truth about 9/11: the terrorists won
    The war on terror weakened America and cost far more in money, lives and foreign policy distractions than it gained" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/awful-truth-about-9-11-the-terrorists-won-fqtwkp3tj

    Well Bin Laden is dead
    You can kill a man, you can't kill an idea.

    Ironically it's a phrase first noted in the US that sums up the big flaw in their counter-terrorism strategy over the past 20 years.
    And if Al Qaeda pop up again or IS launch an attack on US soil they will have to send special forces in to get them again
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Farooq said:

    Chameleon said:

    I see that Channel 4 are holding a no whites allowed day. A beautiful moment for racial equality and desegregation.

    Thank god it's getting sold.

    Really? How is that supposed to help anything? I aspire to a colour blind society.
    "I look to a day when people will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."

    Martin Luther King, Jr.
    If you're going to quote Martin Luther King whilst discussing this issue, it might be useful to know that he supported affirmative action.
    Yes. He's becoming the new Orwell. Quoted out of context to prove the opposite of what he believed.
    Gonna have to stop you there, if that's a coded claim that Orwell genuinely had it in for the right but was only kidding about the left. Wrong.

    His great fault was that he was a house-trained nihilist, deep down. Very difficult to pin down what he was in favour of.
    No I'm not claiming that. But there is no doubt he was a man of the Left. The far Left in many ways. Although deep down an iconoclast. His great attribute was to apply this equally, without fear or favour. He never spared his own side from criticism to advance a political point. A very rare attribute.
    He despaired of the moderate timidity of Attlee for example. I seriously doubt he ever considered a Tory vote.
    All I can be sure about is that he volunteered to fight "fascism" (I won't get into the debate about whether Franco was fascist). That's a decent enough start, and should be good enough for all most of us.
    He also joined the Independent Labour Party in 1938. Which would be a curious move for a non-left person.
  • Options

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I absolutely defend your right to choose, but I'd challenge your 'harmless' contention.

    Mask wearing is not harmless, it is a trade-off of harm vs spreading the virus.

    Humans are not meant to wander around with their faces covered. The face, and seeing each other's expressions, are the fundamental tenets of building trust, both with strangers and acquaintances.

    The idea that mask-wearing is a zero-downside practice is deeply wrong, and flies in the face of decades of psychological research that shows that looking people – quite literally – in the mouth is a vital function of all human relationships.
    I'll have to remember to 'look you in the mouth' if we ever meet, and give your teeth a good inspection ;)
    A flippant response to a fair argument from me.

    What do you think of my point?
    I am not wearing a mask 99% of the time. I choose to wear a mask for very small periods. I fail to see how the people I meet should be horrified because I'm wearing a mask. Particularly when a pandemic is still raging.

    I understand your view, but - sadly - these are still not 'ordinary' times.

    And BTW, when the pandemic's over, if I get a cough or cold I'll probably start wearing a mask again if I'm out and about amongst people. I daresay Philip would call that 'moronic' ...
  • Options

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    You can make your choice and I respect that.

    I can make my own choice.

    That's how a civilised society works.

    In my humble opinion, wearing masks at this stage of the pandemic is moronic. In my humble opinion it is both futile and counterproductive.

    But I don't see to prevent you from wearing one if you choose to do so. I simply have made and expressed my own opinion, that is all.
    You evidently don't respect it, if you choose to call it terms such as 'moronic'.
    I respect your right to make your choice, even if I don't respect your choice.
    And yet, despite the high case numbers and everything else atm, you regard that choice as 'moronic'. I think you're very well off-piste.
    Yes I do and I have my reasons which I've explained.

    If you want to point out a flaw in my reasons then feel free, but if you want to take umbrage with my language instead then I'm sorry I upset you. I think your choice is not just unproductive but counterproductive and harmful - but its still your choice to make. Is that better than moronic for you?
This discussion has been closed.