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Next London Mayor betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andrew Yang stop trying to be relevant no one cares challenge

    https://twitter.com/politico/status/1436085230037778432
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Worst party in the world, in both senses.


    Something has to change!
    This is something!
    erm...
    This is not the something that has to change :hushed:
    Not so sure. With Brexit done and the Tories veering towards Corbynism there is definitely room for a new, low tax, libertarian, low immigration, anti-woke small government patriotic party. With a few charismatic leaders and decent organisation I could see them regularly getting 5-10% of the vote. UKIP managed to frighten the Tories into Brexit with that kind of vote, so it is not meaningless. They would focus Tory minds, fruitfully

    They need rigorous vetting and management from the get-go, however. To make sure they keep out the Tommy robinsons and co
    ReformUK are already on 5% on that platform according to Yougov today.

    It is the ideal party for the anti lockdown, anti mask, anti tax, low immigration, anti woke, still pro Brexit types
    It just occurred to me that if Farage were leading that party, I would 100% vote for them. Because he’s not, I don’t know if I’ll vote at all. I guess I’d vote Con if there were a GE tmrw
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,272
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    Hello. That sounds fabulous. However unless it's in your contract I don't know why you have to always say you're getting drunk. There's no need. Much more efficient to just add a PS when you're not getting drunk.

    Btw, this week I actually went out to the pub and had oysters. Yep.

    But please note that I deconstructed it. I had the oysters (3 Maldens) ad hoc on a tray outside a fishmongers - ie in their proper setting - and then only after that did I go to the pub and do in there what such places are rightfully for, drink.
    Maldons with an ‘o’ not an ‘e’

    But you’re on your way. Within a few weeks you’ll be comparing the virtues of the helford natives in the Cow with the jersey rocks in the Drop
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Real-world data out of Malaysia regarding vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 related death shows:

    •AstraZeneca: 99.42%
    •Pfizer: 97.25%
    •Sinovac: 90.44%

    The death rate amongst those who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Malaysia is 0.009%.


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1436325238111879173?s=21

    “Quasi ineffective”……

    Or put another way,

    Death rate among vaccinated:

    AZ: 0.58%
    Pfizer: 2.75%
    Sinovac: 9.56%

    That's rather misleading isn't it? You're presumably not trying to say that 9.56% of those vaccinated with Sinovac will die of Covid!
  • “Supermarket food shortages will be over by Christmas, Downing Street says”

    Heard that one before somewhere.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    I'm loving the anti-maskers on here today. It's hilarious. Calling people who judge their own risks and choose to wear masks at certain times things like 'moronic' et al.

    I am still wearing a mask at certain times. I judge when and where I will wear my mask; it is not always, but whenever I go into a shop, or pick or drop off the little 'un from school. To be frank, it's not much - perhaps twenty or thirty minutes a day, tops. I have judged the risks - as I see them - and made a choice.

    It also does f'all harm. to myself or anyone around me - and may even help.

    That's not moronic. It's personal choice in a civilised society.

    I absolutely defend your right to choose, but I'd challenge your 'harmless' contention.

    Mask wearing is not harmless, it is a trade-off of harm vs spreading the virus.

    Humans are not meant to wander around with their faces covered. The face, and seeing each other's expressions, are the fundamental tenets of building trust, both with strangers and acquaintances.

    The idea that mask-wearing is a zero-downside practice is deeply wrong, and flies in the face of decades of psychological research that shows that looking people – quite literally – in the mouth is a vital function of all human relationships.
    I'll have to remember to 'look you in the mouth' if we ever meet, and give your teeth a good inspection ;)
    You should, that's how we communicate.

    My youngest daughter is currently undergoing speech therapy because she doesn't enunciate all her sounds properly, and the wearing of masks at school through her reception year when school wasn't locked down etc has really been counterproductive. Her teacher's been cursing it whenever we speak on the subject, quite rightly saying you can't teach phonics properly with a mask on.

    I don't really think about how you make certain sounds, you just do, but children learn from looking at your teeth etc while you speak. So we're currently working on the 'f' sound which requires putting your top teeth on your bottom lip "like a bunny" and blowing. Our advice is to try and practice this as much as possible with her, and to make a point of showing the teeth when doing so.
    I'm sorry your daughter is going through that. If it helps, I underwent many years of speech therapy, and still do not speak perfectly. In fact, I didn't speak at all until I was five. It's not affected my life much at all (except for the fact I never shut up).

    But I fail to see why wearing a mask in a shop would cause any difficulty.
    Thank you for your kind remarks.

    My reasons for not wearing a mask in a coffee shop.

    1: Its pretty hard to drink coffee through a mask.
    2: Cloth masks which are all most people are wearing, and disposable cheap clinical masks, not properly worn don't offer that much protection at all compared to getting vaccinated etc
    3: If anyone is really bothered about the virus, they should be shielding or wearing a proper clinically safe mask like an FFP3 one which will protect far better than a cloth mask.
    4: For anyone else who isn't vaccinated, or is OK with a vaccine breakthrough, better it occurs now over the summer than over the winter.
    5: Even at the 'best' of times unless you ban sitting in, most people in a coffee shop would never be wearing a mask anyway. Because . . . see point 1.
    6: Masks are stifling, uncomfortable and make communication harder.

    I see absolutely no advantage to wearing a mask and only harms.
    There is one massive advantage to wearing a mask: much lower levels of virus that reach others. And the size of the viral load people receive seems to be highly correlated with how sick they get. More masked people, means smaller viral load, which means more asymptomatic and mild cases, and fewer serious ones.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    geoffw said:

    Talking about Iran, @Richard_Nabavi's promoting the Persian chelo method of cooking rice was appreciated in our house where, at a loss what to do when it was my turn to cook, I drew inspiration from this site. Also much appreciated was the mention here by I forget whom that the US Open can be followed on Amazon Prime.
    Follow Political Betting to improve the quality of life!

    The Ottelengi baked rice recipe is superb.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Attlee was of the traditional Labour left, the idea of forging consensus around policies that were necessary and useful, he would not today be advocating nationalising large swathes of the economy.

    He’s closer to Blair than Corbyn, I know that is hard for some to take

    I don't think it at all likely Attlee would have agreed to invade Iraq.
    Attlee agreed to invade Iran to secure Iran's oil.
    Indeed - a strategic calculation, rather than a strategic blunder.
    Nah, Attlee made Mohammad Reza Pahlavi the Shah which turned out be a disaster.
    Attlee wasn't PM in 53.
    Nah, he became Shah in 1941 after the Anglo Soviet invasion of Iran.
    Sure, but I don't think you can read that all the way through to the mistake of deposing Mosaddegh (though admittedly the oil boycott which Attlee initiated as PM destabilised him), still less to the disaster the Shah turned out to be in the '70s.
    If the Shah had died in '69 he'd probably be fondly remembered in Iran as one of their greatest leaders of all time.

    That's the problem with non-democracies. At his prime he was actually a good leader, but then he got cancer, turned inwards and was unable to react to the world around him. In a democracy he'd have been replaced by then, but as Shah the nation was stuck with him and he was incapable of moving on.
    Looking at the Trump-Biden presidencies I'd question whether democracies have got this totally sorted.
    Trump was replaced reasonably quickly. I'd suspend judgment until we see the outcome in 2024...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Talking about Iran, @Richard_Nabavi's promoting the Persian chelo method of cooking rice was appreciated in our house where, at a loss what to do when it was my turn to cook, I drew inspiration from this site. Also much appreciated was the mention here by I forget whom that the US Open can be followed on Amazon Prime.
    Follow Political Betting to improve the quality of life!

    The Ottelengi baked rice recipe is superb.
    The? There are several, which one do you think is superb?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited September 2021

    Real-world data out of Malaysia regarding vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 related death shows:

    •AstraZeneca: 99.42%
    •Pfizer: 97.25%
    •Sinovac: 90.44%

    The death rate amongst those who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Malaysia is 0.009%.


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1436325238111879173?s=21

    “Quasi ineffective”……

    Or put another way,

    Death rate among vaccinated:

    AZ: 0.58%
    Pfizer: 2.75%
    Sinovac: 9.56%

    That's rather misleading isn't it? You're presumably not trying to say that 9.56% of those vaccinated with Sinovac will die of Covid!
    Of those infected, yes.

    It’s to get past “96% and 98% having antibodies are very similar” - the latter is twice as good as the former.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Or - which country has given up trying to control the virus to allow spread at the best time to get the unvaccinated infected, and thus gaining immunity during the summer/autumn, and not in winter, combined with testing vastly more than most other countries in Europe...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    Real-world data out of Malaysia regarding vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 related death shows:

    •AstraZeneca: 99.42%
    •Pfizer: 97.25%
    •Sinovac: 90.44%

    The death rate amongst those who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Malaysia is 0.009%.


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1436325238111879173?s=21

    “Quasi ineffective”……

    Or put another way,

    Death rate among vaccinated:

    AZ: 0.58%
    Pfizer: 2.75%
    Sinovac: 9.56%

    That's rather misleading isn't it? You're presumably not trying to say that 9.56% of those vaccinated with Sinovac will die of Covid!
    Of those infected, yes.
    Seems high - I thought around 3% was the maximum death rate for unvaxxed?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    stodge said:

    Brief afternoon all :)

    On topic, unless Sadiq Khan wants to go back to Westminster (as part of a winning Labour Party presumably) he may as well stay Mayor until 2028 then find a Westminster seat in London (East Ham?) and then be part of the winning Labour Party.

    Will he win in 2024?

    Bailey did much better than many expected or anticipated including me. He won a Ward in Newham (Custom House) by 789 to 742 and the Conservative candidate in the East Ham Central by election polled a respectable 30%.

    The question then becomes - who is the Conservative candidate that can reach the parts even Shaun Bailey couldn't reach? Unless Bailey finds a safe Westminster seat, I'm sure he'll be in the running for another go and there's the thing - he can either have the relatively certainty and obscurity of being a backbench MP or the uncertainty and profile of being London Mayor.

    @TSE seems certain he knows the outcome of the next GE - as Richard Hoiles once said of Frankie Dettori after the Nunthorpe "he's sure I'm not".

    Iff things generally remain the way they are then I'd expect the Conservatives to win the next election.

    But oppositions don't win elections but governments lose them.

    As I mentioned to JohnO I can easily see a situation where the blue wall crumbles and the Conservatives lose 50 seats in England & Wales and five seats in Scotland and kaboom, we have a Labour led government because no one will go into coalition/supply and confidence agreement.

    I mean the DUP will never back Boris Johnson or the modern day Tories for putting a border down the Irish Sea, I think we can rule out the Lib Dems as well, cannot imagine Sinn Fein breaking their abstentionism to give the Tories a majority and I know climate change is an issue but cannot see hell freezing over and us having a Tory/SNP coalition at Westminster.
    I can see the SNP offering to allow through a Queens Speech in return for a referendum.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,272
    edited September 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    It's probably not quite in the same league but the Musée Marmottan in Paris is also a lovely little jewel devoted to Monet's works. We used to live round the corner in the early 70s.

    The marmottan is lovely, tho yes this is better I think. And barely visited!

    I love small private collections consisting almost entirely of masterpieces, personally chosen

    Of course the louvre, national gallery, hermitage are fantastic but boy they are huge and exhausting. It takes you a week to really see them, and they are bloated with filler. One of my favorite national galleries is the Mauritshuis in The Hague, it’s tiny by the standards of the Prada but it just has the best of Dutch golden age art. That’s it

    The Getty was so much better when it was that little villa. Now it is a sprawling mess full of dross alongside the great stuff

    I strongly recommend the Rosengart. Mind blowingly good and you can properly see all of it in a lazy morning, then have a nice wine-soaked lunch
    Hitler's Eagle's nest in the German Alps (not that he went there very much, being afraid of heights) can't really compete in the cultural stakes
    Berchtesgaden? He was there quite a lot, I believe, in the pre war era. He loved it. During the war itself he retreated to the Wolf’s Lair in the east. Better bunkers. Nearer Russia.

    I’ve been to Berchtesgaden. It’s deeply sinister even now. Spectacular but creepily subdued.

    What amazed me is the presence of a 5 star hotel right underneath the lair whose only selling point really is: come and enjoy the view Hitler enjoyed! It’s never mentioned, but that is the USP. And many were there for that reason. A lot of young and old people were quietly reading books about the Nazis. Including me.

    It occurred to me that one day even Auschwitz will be sold much more overtly as a tourist destination. They will reconstruct the gas chambers. Have 3D mock ups. Audio visual experiences. Augmented reality Holocaust. You too can imagine what it’s like to come through that railway arch…. Schnell! SCHNELL!

    It sounds ghastly but that will happen. Guaranteed. The horror will fade and the capitalist greed will take over. A few will complain but then give up
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Attlee was of the traditional Labour left, the idea of forging consensus around policies that were necessary and useful, he would not today be advocating nationalising large swathes of the economy.

    He’s closer to Blair than Corbyn, I know that is hard for some to take

    I don't think it at all likely Attlee would have agreed to invade Iraq.
    Attlee agreed to invade Iran to secure Iran's oil.
    Indeed - a strategic calculation, rather than a strategic blunder.
    Nah, Attlee made Mohammad Reza Pahlavi the Shah which turned out be a disaster.
    Wasn't the Shah doing a pretty good job all things considered - until he got cancer and hid it from the world and kind of lost his mind.

    Certainly did a better job than the Ayatollah.
    The Shah's Persia was definitely better than fundamentalist Iran, but it was no paradise. It had a particularly nasty internal security service, for example.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    Attlee was of the traditional Labour left, the idea of forging consensus around policies that were necessary and useful, he would not today be advocating nationalising large swathes of the economy.

    He’s closer to Blair than Corbyn, I know that is hard for some to take

    I strongly disagree. Blair was closer to Thatcher than to Attlee - and well to the right of Tory figures such as Macmillan, Heath, Macleod, Butler , Maudling - indeed even Baldwin.
    Attlee closer to Blair than Corbyn.
    Blair closer to Thatcher than Attlee.
    These can BOTH be true.

    C ............ A ....... B ... T
    That is possible though I do not share the view that Attlee was even vaguely close to Blair on the political spectrum. It also implies that many pre-Thatcher Tory politicians were closer to Attlee than to Blair.
    I think you're right. Just it got me thinking about the algebra there.
    Your Algebra worked and his implication is wrong. Just as its possible to have Attlee closer to Blair than Corbyn, for the same logic its possible to have Wilson closer to Blair than Attlee.

    C ............ A .... W ... B ... T
    Yes. I just meant I agree with Justin that Blair wasn't an Attlee figure. Corbyn is harder to place since he never had the chance to strut his stuff in number 10. I personally think he's the best 'mediocre but nothing like as bad as people feared' PM we never had. But this is hypothetical and will forever remain so.
    My view of Corbyn has fallen into the gutter ever since I completed reading "Left Out". It is evidently clear that he was a stupid idiot with a bad team and a total inability to control even the SCG. He will go down as the worst Labour leader in history.

    I strongly think that Blair WAS an Attlee figure. He understood intuitively the public mood and what the public wanted and was able to lead a Labour Party that was ideologically split into winning a landslide.

    I genuinely think they're very, very similar.
    Corbyn wasn't suited for leadership, I agree. He had several personal flaws in this regard and I'd highlight aversion to conflict as the most hampering.

    Blair and Attlee? Yep they both won landslides for the party, which is a massive and important similarity. Other than that, though, I don't see much in common.
    They both sat in the centre ground.
    I see the Attlee govt as a distinctly left of centre one which departed from the status quo and was transformational. Whereas the Blair one, for me, really was centre ground in that it essentially accepted much of the Thatcher revolution and made refinements. I'm not anti Blair btw - apart from on Iraq - but, no, I don't see him as an Attlee figure (bar the electoral success angle).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Real-world data out of Malaysia regarding vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 related death shows:

    •AstraZeneca: 99.42%
    •Pfizer: 97.25%
    •Sinovac: 90.44%

    The death rate amongst those who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Malaysia is 0.009%.


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1436325238111879173?s=21

    “Quasi ineffective”……

    Or put another way,

    Death rate among vaccinated:

    AZ: 0.58%
    Pfizer: 2.75%
    Sinovac: 9.56%

    That's rather misleading isn't it? You're presumably not trying to say that 9.56% of those vaccinated with Sinovac will die of Covid!
    Of those infected, yes.
    Lol - if that were true the anti-vaxxers would be right since the death rate for unvaccinated is circa 2% IIRC.

    I assume what these figures (•AstraZeneca: 99.42%, •Pfizer: 97.25%, •Sinovac: 90.44%) show is that if vaccinated your chance of death are reduced by the given percentage.

    Thus, the chances of dying from covid if vaccinated with Sinovac are 0.2% versus 2% for unvaccinated.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited September 2021
    "Colin Thubron: ‘I’m increasingly less proud of the west’
    The celebrated travel writer on exploring in his eighties — and why he prefers to journey alone

    Was it a mirage — that heady moment when the world seemed almost too welcoming to western travellers and western ideas? Either way, it seems long gone. The pandemic has shrunk horizons, the withdrawal from Afghanistan has darkened them. Such thoughts cloud my mind as I sit on a deserted Chelsea roof terrace, waiting for Colin Thubron." (via google search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/f2b53d3a-dec0-4e08-a664-2e2aaf075363
  • rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Attlee was of the traditional Labour left, the idea of forging consensus around policies that were necessary and useful, he would not today be advocating nationalising large swathes of the economy.

    He’s closer to Blair than Corbyn, I know that is hard for some to take

    I don't think it at all likely Attlee would have agreed to invade Iraq.
    Attlee agreed to invade Iran to secure Iran's oil.
    Indeed - a strategic calculation, rather than a strategic blunder.
    Nah, Attlee made Mohammad Reza Pahlavi the Shah which turned out be a disaster.
    Wasn't the Shah doing a pretty good job all things considered - until he got cancer and hid it from the world and kind of lost his mind.

    Certainly did a better job than the Ayatollah.
    The Shah's Persia was definitely better than fundamentalist Iran, but it was no paradise. It had a particularly nasty internal security service, for example.
    I was at school with a persian kid whose dad was here to escape their clutches.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    Real-world data out of Malaysia regarding vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 related death shows:

    •AstraZeneca: 99.42%
    •Pfizer: 97.25%
    •Sinovac: 90.44%

    The death rate amongst those who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Malaysia is 0.009%.


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1436325238111879173?s=21

    “Quasi ineffective”……

    Or put another way,

    Death rate among vaccinated:

    AZ: 0.58%
    Pfizer: 2.75%
    Sinovac: 9.56%

    Good to see further proof that these vaccines are so effective.

    Interesting breakdown further down on the tweet in how many doses of each type have been given.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    Hello. That sounds fabulous. However unless it's in your contract I don't know why you have to always say you're getting drunk. There's no need. Much more efficient to just add a PS when you're not getting drunk.

    Btw, this week I actually went out to the pub and had oysters. Yep.

    But please note that I deconstructed it. I had the oysters (3 Maldens) ad hoc on a tray outside a fishmongers - ie in their proper setting - and then only after that did I go to the pub and do in there what such places are rightfully for, drink.
    Fantastic! An 80-yr old joke. You're on fire.
    I'm not 80. Nothing like.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,501
    edited September 2021
    Off topic - our favourite baked risotto method never fails. This serves 4 - Preheat oven to 200/180 fan. Heat 1tbsp olive oil in a casserole dish / Le Creuset-a-like on the hob. Fry 100g diced chorizo for 1-2mins until golden. Add 400g risotto rice and stir for 1 min. Add 1L stock and seasoning. Bring to boil. Add 300g cherry tomatoes. Cover and cook in oven for 25 mins (don't need to stir or anything). Remove and stir through 1/2 a jar of roasted peppers, deseeded and sliced. Stir through large bunch of chopped parsley. Serve with lemon wedges. Yum. The 100g risotto rice to 250ml stock seems to be perfect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2021
    In Canada Trudeau's Liberals retake the lead after the first debate on 32.9% to 32% for the Conservatives with Mainstreet which would give the Liberals 165 seats (+8 on 2019) and leave them just 5 short of the majority Trudeau wanted. The Conservatives would be on 120 seats, down 1.

    https://archive.ph/1oA4E

    Nanos however still has the Conservatives narrowly ahead 33.3% to 31.3% for the Liberals, though Trudeau leads as preferred PM on 30% to 27.1% for O'Toole

    https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2021-1947-ELXN44-Nightly-Tracking-Report-2021-09-09x7y42.pdf

  • Lilico thinks the Tory poll drop is down to the killing of the llama.

    I'm not sure whether he is joking.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    Or - which country has given up trying to control the virus to allow spread at the best time to get the unvaccinated infected, and thus gaining immunity during the summer/autumn, and not in winter, combined with testing vastly more than most other countries in Europe...
    +1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic I think David Lammy would make an excellent London mayor.

    I saw him being interviewed by Matt Forde at a theatre in Victoria when he was in the running to be Labour’s candidate in 2016 - i even had a chat over a pint with him and Forde after in the bar. A pleasant enough chap. He wants to build all over the green belt and sees racism in everything, so he’ll probably go down well in the inner cities. I am no longer a London dweller so won’t have a say in the matter this time. I never once backed the winning candidate when I did live there anyway!
    The Green Belt *is* an institutionally racist policy.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    edited September 2021

    Real-world data out of Malaysia regarding vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 related death shows:

    •AstraZeneca: 99.42%
    •Pfizer: 97.25%
    •Sinovac: 90.44%

    The death rate amongst those who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Malaysia is 0.009%.


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1436325238111879173?s=21

    “Quasi ineffective”……

    Or put another way,

    Death rate among vaccinated:

    AZ: 0.58%
    Pfizer: 2.75%
    Sinovac: 9.56%

    That's rather misleading isn't it? You're presumably not trying to say that 9.56% of those vaccinated with Sinovac will die of Covid!
    Of those infected, yes.
    Seems high - I thought around 3% was the maximum death rate for unvaxxed?
    It's a mis-read of efficacy, again, I think - taking as absolute rather than relative? The protection is presumably compared to unvaxxed, so if 10000 unvaxxed people died then, had they been vaxed with AZ, only 58 would have died. For sinovac, 956 would have died.

    If you assume 3% death rate unvaxxed (still seems high?) then that's approx:

    10000 out of 330000 unvaxed infected people die
    956 out of 330000 sinovac vaccinated people with the same exposure* die
    58 out of 330000 AZ vaccinated people with the same exposure* die

    *exposure as the vaccinations also stop many infections, but I assume the comparisons are per capita, not per infected

    (I expect I've done a silly maths fail somewhere, correct me if so)
  • IanB2 said:

    Boomers, the group that got to enjoy the Beatles and the Stones, Hair, the Isle of Wight Festival and the hippy trail, have grown old to become synonymous with an aimless and short-term vision of conservatism, locked in a deathly embrace with the Tory Party, the last chapter in the incredible story of a truly lucky group of people.

    https://unherd.com/2021/09/boomers-the-luckiest-generation-that-ever-lived/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=7a76c24195&mc_eid=836634e34b

    Surely some mistake here? They seem to have misspelt "hardest working ever, all their lives you know" with "luckiest".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Worst party in the world, in both senses.


    Something has to change!
    This is something!
    erm...
    This is not the something that has to change :hushed:
    Not so sure. With Brexit done and the Tories veering towards Corbynism there is definitely room for a new, low tax, libertarian, low immigration, anti-woke small government patriotic party. With a few charismatic leaders and decent organisation I could see them regularly getting 5-10% of the vote. UKIP managed to frighten the Tories into Brexit with that kind of vote, so it is not meaningless. They would focus Tory minds, fruitfully

    They need rigorous vetting and management from the get-go, however. To make sure they keep out the Tommy robinsons and co
    ReformUK are already on 5% on that platform according to Yougov today.

    It is the ideal party for the anti lockdown, anti mask, anti tax, low immigration, anti woke, still pro Brexit types
    Lots of anti there and only one pro. What is it about Brexit that attracts people who hate almost everything else?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    IanB2 said:

    Boomers, the group that got to enjoy the Beatles and the Stones, Hair, the Isle of Wight Festival and the hippy trail, have grown old to become synonymous with an aimless and short-term vision of conservatism, locked in a deathly embrace with the Tory Party, the last chapter in the incredible story of a truly lucky group of people.

    https://unherd.com/2021/09/boomers-the-luckiest-generation-that-ever-lived/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=7a76c24195&mc_eid=836634e34b

    Interesting article, although I think there's far too much criticism of the boomer generation.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,493
    edited September 2021
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    It's probably not quite in the same league but the Musée Marmottan in Paris is also a lovely little jewel devoted to Monet's works. We used to live round the corner in the early 70s.

    The marmottan is lovely, tho yes this is better I think. And barely visited!

    I love small private collections consisting almost entirely of masterpieces, personally chosen

    Of course the louvre, national gallery, hermitage are fantastic but boy they are huge and exhausting. It takes you a week to really see them, and they are bloated with filler. One of my favorite national galleries is the Mauritshuis in The Hague, it’s tiny by the standards of the Prada but it just has the best of Dutch golden age art. That’s it

    The Getty was so much better when it was that little villa. Now it is a sprawling mess full of dross alongside the great stuff

    I strongly recommend the Rosengart. Mind blowingly good and you can properly see all of it in a lazy morning, then have a nice wine-soaked lunch
    Hitler's Eagle's nest in the German Alps (not that he went there very much, being afraid of heights) can't really compete in the cultural stakes
    Berchtesgaden? He was there quite a lot, I believe, in the pre war era. He loved it. During the war itself he retreated to the Wolf’s Lair in the east. Better bunkers. Nearer Russia.

    I’ve been to Berchtesgaden. It’s deeply sinister even now. Spectacular but creepily subdued.

    What amazed me is the presence of a 5 star hotel right underneath the lair whose only selling point really is: come and enjoy the view Hitler enjoyed! It’s never mentioned, but that is the USP. And many were there for that reason. A lot of young and old people were quietly reading books about the Nazis. Including me.

    It occurred to me that one day even Auschwitz will be sold much more overtly as a tourist destination. They will reconstruct the gas chambers. Have 3D mock ups. Audio visual experiences. Augmented reality Holocaust. You too can imagine what it’s like to come through that railway arch…. Schnell! SCHNELL!

    It sounds ghastly but that will happen. Guaranteed. The horror will fade and the capitalist greed will take over. A few will complain but then give up
    He was at Berchtesgaden a lot. But Bormann had a tea house built at the Kehlstein, a nearby peak and called the Kehlsteinhaus but known as the Eagle's Nest - reached by a lift shaft cut through the rock - that Hitler only visited a couple of times. Think it was a 50th birthday present, IIRC.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Worst party in the world, in both senses.


    Something has to change!
    This is something!
    erm...
    This is not the something that has to change :hushed:
    Not so sure. With Brexit done and the Tories veering towards Corbynism there is definitely room for a new, low tax, libertarian, low immigration, anti-woke small government patriotic party. With a few charismatic leaders and decent organisation I could see them regularly getting 5-10% of the vote. UKIP managed to frighten the Tories into Brexit with that kind of vote, so it is not meaningless. They would focus Tory minds, fruitfully

    They need rigorous vetting and management from the get-go, however. To make sure they keep out the Tommy robinsons and co
    ReformUK are already on 5% on that platform according to Yougov today.

    It is the ideal party for the anti lockdown, anti mask, anti tax, low immigration, anti woke, still pro Brexit types
    Lots of anti there and only one pro. What is it about Brexit that attracts people who hate almost everything else?
    That's one way of framing it. You could say they're pro-freedom, pro-having nothing on your face, pro-common sense, pro-British, etc.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    It's probably not quite in the same league but the Musée Marmottan in Paris is also a lovely little jewel devoted to Monet's works. We used to live round the corner in the early 70s.

    The marmottan is lovely, tho yes this is better I think. And barely visited!

    I love small private collections consisting almost entirely of masterpieces, personally chosen

    Of course the louvre, national gallery, hermitage are fantastic but boy they are huge and exhausting. It takes you a week to really see them, and they are bloated with filler. One of my favorite national galleries is the Mauritshuis in The Hague, it’s tiny by the standards of the Prada but it just has the best of Dutch golden age art. That’s it

    The Getty was so much better when it was that little villa. Now it is a sprawling mess full of dross alongside the great stuff

    I strongly recommend the Rosengart. Mind blowingly good and you can properly see all of it in a lazy morning, then have a nice wine-soaked lunch
    Hitler's Eagle's nest in the German Alps (not that he went there very much, being afraid of heights) can't really compete in the cultural stakes
    Berchtesgaden? He was there quite a lot, I believe, in the pre war era. He loved it. During the war itself he retreated to the Wolf’s Lair in the east. Better bunkers. Nearer Russia.

    I’ve been to Berchtesgaden. It’s deeply sinister even now. Spectacular but creepily subdued.

    What amazed me is the presence of a 5 star hotel right underneath the lair whose only selling point really is: come and enjoy the view Hitler enjoyed! It’s never mentioned, but that is the USP. And many were there for that reason. A lot of young and old people were quietly reading books about the Nazis. Including me.

    It occurred to me that one day even Auschwitz will be sold much more overtly as a tourist destination. They will reconstruct the gas chambers. Have 3D mock ups. Audio visual experiences. Augmented reality Holocaust. You too can imagine what it’s like to come through that railway arch…. Schnell! SCHNELL!

    It sounds ghastly but that will happen. Guaranteed. The horror will fade and the capitalist greed will take over. A few will complain but then give up
    There's all that London Dungeon shit about how torturing people to death gets deeply funny after a couple of centuries. It really doesn't.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Worst party in the world, in both senses.


    Something has to change!
    This is something!
    erm...
    This is not the something that has to change :hushed:
    Not so sure. With Brexit done and the Tories veering towards Corbynism there is definitely room for a new, low tax, libertarian, low immigration, anti-woke small government patriotic party. With a few charismatic leaders and decent organisation I could see them regularly getting 5-10% of the vote. UKIP managed to frighten the Tories into Brexit with that kind of vote, so it is not meaningless. They would focus Tory minds, fruitfully

    They need rigorous vetting and management from the get-go, however. To make sure they keep out the Tommy robinsons and co
    I've a lot of time for the SDP. Admittedly, it's the sort of time you can have for a political organisation who never get to power and who you don't know a lot about so you haven't yet come across their halfwits yet. I don't think they're a low tax party though - I think Calvin might me disappointed on that score.

    I think Richard Tice is ok, actually.

    I'd be alarmed by any party advancing Lawrence Fox though. I enjoy him as Hathaway. And in his broader point that Woke Has Gone Too Far I'd agree. But I'm not convinced he's necessarily the brightest or most thoughtful star in the firmament.
    Strong bid for Sept understatement of the month award.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    It's probably not quite in the same league but the Musée Marmottan in Paris is also a lovely little jewel devoted to Monet's works. We used to live round the corner in the early 70s.

    The marmottan is lovely, tho yes this is better I think. And barely visited!

    I love small private collections consisting almost entirely of masterpieces, personally chosen

    Of course the louvre, national gallery, hermitage are fantastic but boy they are huge and exhausting. It takes you a week to really see them, and they are bloated with filler. One of my favorite national galleries is the Mauritshuis in The Hague, it’s tiny by the standards of the Prada but it just has the best of Dutch golden age art. That’s it

    The Getty was so much better when it was that little villa. Now it is a sprawling mess full of dross alongside the great stuff

    I strongly recommend the Rosengart. Mind blowingly good and you can properly see all of it in a lazy morning, then have a nice wine-soaked lunch
    The Hammer Museum in Los Angeles is similar, just one large-ish room with pretty much one of every great master's work.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Worst party in the world, in both senses.


    Something has to change!
    This is something!
    erm...
    This is not the something that has to change :hushed:
    Not so sure. With Brexit done and the Tories veering towards Corbynism there is definitely room for a new, low tax, libertarian, low immigration, anti-woke small government patriotic party. With a few charismatic leaders and decent organisation I could see them regularly getting 5-10% of the vote. UKIP managed to frighten the Tories into Brexit with that kind of vote, so it is not meaningless. They would focus Tory minds, fruitfully

    They need rigorous vetting and management from the get-go, however. To make sure they keep out the Tommy robinsons and co
    ReformUK are already on 5% on that platform according to Yougov today.

    It is the ideal party for the anti lockdown, anti mask, anti tax, low immigration, anti woke, still pro Brexit types
    Lots of anti there and only one pro. What is it about Brexit that attracts people who hate almost everything else?
    That's one way of framing it. You could say they're pro-freedom, pro-having nothing on your face, pro-common sense, pro-British, etc.
    I bet they would too. Slippery.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,272
    Andy_JS said:

    "Colin Thubron: ‘I’m increasingly less proud of the west’
    The celebrated travel writer on exploring in his eighties — and why he prefers to journey alone

    Was it a mirage — that heady moment when the world seemed almost too welcoming to western travellers and western ideas? Either way, it seems long gone. The pandemic has shrunk horizons, the withdrawal from Afghanistan has darkened them. Such thoughts cloud my mind as I sit on a deserted Chelsea roof terrace, waiting for Colin Thubron." (via google search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/f2b53d3a-dec0-4e08-a664-2e2aaf075363

    I love that series. The “FT has lunch with”

    It combines restaurant review with relaxed interview in a brilliantly revealing way. I’ve noticed the interviewers often get better insights than yer standard interrogator. A glass of wine here, a digestif there…
  • rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Brief afternoon all :)

    On topic, unless Sadiq Khan wants to go back to Westminster (as part of a winning Labour Party presumably) he may as well stay Mayor until 2028 then find a Westminster seat in London (East Ham?) and then be part of the winning Labour Party.

    Will he win in 2024?

    Bailey did much better than many expected or anticipated including me. He won a Ward in Newham (Custom House) by 789 to 742 and the Conservative candidate in the East Ham Central by election polled a respectable 30%.

    The question then becomes - who is the Conservative candidate that can reach the parts even Shaun Bailey couldn't reach? Unless Bailey finds a safe Westminster seat, I'm sure he'll be in the running for another go and there's the thing - he can either have the relatively certainty and obscurity of being a backbench MP or the uncertainty and profile of being London Mayor.

    @TSE seems certain he knows the outcome of the next GE - as Richard Hoiles once said of Frankie Dettori after the Nunthorpe "he's sure I'm not".

    Iff things generally remain the way they are then I'd expect the Conservatives to win the next election.

    But oppositions don't win elections but governments lose them.

    As I mentioned to JohnO I can easily see a situation where the blue wall crumbles and the Conservatives lose 50 seats in England & Wales and five seats in Scotland and kaboom, we have a Labour led government because no one will go into coalition/supply and confidence agreement.

    I mean the DUP will never back Boris Johnson or the modern day Tories for putting a border down the Irish Sea, I think we can rule out the Lib Dems as well, cannot imagine Sinn Fein breaking their abstentionism to give the Tories a majority and I know climate change is an issue but cannot see hell freezing over and us having a Tory/SNP coalition at Westminster.
    I can see the SNP offering to allow through a Queens Speech in return for a referendum.
    Nope.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2021
    37,622 cases...147 deaths.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Selebian said:

    Real-world data out of Malaysia regarding vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 related death shows:

    •AstraZeneca: 99.42%
    •Pfizer: 97.25%
    •Sinovac: 90.44%

    The death rate amongst those who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Malaysia is 0.009%.


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1436325238111879173?s=21

    “Quasi ineffective”……

    Or put another way,

    Death rate among vaccinated:

    AZ: 0.58%
    Pfizer: 2.75%
    Sinovac: 9.56%

    That's rather misleading isn't it? You're presumably not trying to say that 9.56% of those vaccinated with Sinovac will die of Covid!
    Of those infected, yes.
    Seems high - I thought around 3% was the maximum death rate for unvaxxed?
    It's a mis-read of efficacy, again, I think - taking as absolute rather than relative? The protection is presumably compared to unvaxxed, so if 10000 unvaxxed people died then, had they been vaxed with AZ, only 58 would have died. For sinovac, 956 would have died.

    If you assume 3% death rate unvaxxed (still seems high?) then that's approx:

    10000 out of 330000 unvaxed infected people die
    956 out of 330000 sinovac vaccinated people with the same exposure* die
    58 out of 330000 AZ vaccinated people with the same exposure* die

    *exposure as the vaccinations also stop many infections, but I assume the comparisons are per capita, not per infected

    (I expect I've done a silly maths fail somewhere, correct me if so)
    6 million more people in that Malaysia data had Sinovac x2 compared to AZ (Pfizer also had 7 million doses x2)

    I think what is most impressive is the Pfizer data. Looks more effective than Sinovac with a similar numbers of x2 doses, and only 2% difference between Pfizer and AZ despite 6 million more jabs.

    But they are all very good vaccines, which do the number one job well of preventing hospitalisations and deaths.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    edited September 2021
    Big drop in cases. 5K down in England on last week.

    Edit: Cases up in other nations. So England does not seem to be following the pattern of the other parts of the UK.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Worst party in the world, in both senses.


    Something has to change!
    This is something!
    erm...
    This is not the something that has to change :hushed:
    Not so sure. With Brexit done and the Tories veering towards Corbynism there is definitely room for a new, low tax, libertarian, low immigration, anti-woke small government patriotic party. With a few charismatic leaders and decent organisation I could see them regularly getting 5-10% of the vote. UKIP managed to frighten the Tories into Brexit with that kind of vote, so it is not meaningless. They would focus Tory minds, fruitfully

    They need rigorous vetting and management from the get-go, however. To make sure they keep out the Tommy robinsons and co
    ReformUK are already on 5% on that platform according to Yougov today.

    It is the ideal party for the anti lockdown, anti mask, anti tax, low immigration, anti woke, still pro Brexit types
    Lots of anti there and only one pro. What is it about Brexit that attracts people who hate almost everything else?
    Well the common thread here is not wanting change. I don't necessarily say this pejoratively. Change is not always good.
    These are the people who prefer things as things are to the way the people who want change appear to want them to be. Again, it's hard to say this without sounding pejorative - I sort of include myself in that description. There are some changes I want to see (such as lower house prices) but lots of changes I don't (such as lockdown).

    And you point out 'only one pro' but Brexit is in my view the smaller change option: Remain, to be, implied (due to 'ever closer union') more change than Leave.

  • AlistairM said:

    Big drop in cases. 5K down in England on last week.

    The difference between England and Scotland/Wales is striking.
  • A senior Whitehall source told The Herald Ms Forbes appeared to be “either confused about the current law around taxes, or is making claims for the sake of political argument. They added: “Since she is the finance secretary, I’d hope that she wasn’t confused about how funding works in Scotland.”

    https://twitter.com/htscotpol/status/1436335062790905859?s=21
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Brief afternoon all :)

    On topic, unless Sadiq Khan wants to go back to Westminster (as part of a winning Labour Party presumably) he may as well stay Mayor until 2028 then find a Westminster seat in London (East Ham?) and then be part of the winning Labour Party.

    Will he win in 2024?

    Bailey did much better than many expected or anticipated including me. He won a Ward in Newham (Custom House) by 789 to 742 and the Conservative candidate in the East Ham Central by election polled a respectable 30%.

    The question then becomes - who is the Conservative candidate that can reach the parts even Shaun Bailey couldn't reach? Unless Bailey finds a safe Westminster seat, I'm sure he'll be in the running for another go and there's the thing - he can either have the relatively certainty and obscurity of being a backbench MP or the uncertainty and profile of being London Mayor.

    @TSE seems certain he knows the outcome of the next GE - as Richard Hoiles once said of Frankie Dettori after the Nunthorpe "he's sure I'm not".

    Iff things generally remain the way they are then I'd expect the Conservatives to win the next election.

    But oppositions don't win elections but governments lose them.

    As I mentioned to JohnO I can easily see a situation where the blue wall crumbles and the Conservatives lose 50 seats in England & Wales and five seats in Scotland and kaboom, we have a Labour led government because no one will go into coalition/supply and confidence agreement.

    I mean the DUP will never back Boris Johnson or the modern day Tories for putting a border down the Irish Sea, I think we can rule out the Lib Dems as well, cannot imagine Sinn Fein breaking their abstentionism to give the Tories a majority and I know climate change is an issue but cannot see hell freezing over and us having a Tory/SNP coalition at Westminster.
    I can see the SNP offering to allow through a Queens Speech in return for a referendum.
    Nope.
    Surely there would be no time more proprietous for an independence vote than when there's a Tory government?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Brief afternoon all :)

    On topic, unless Sadiq Khan wants to go back to Westminster (as part of a winning Labour Party presumably) he may as well stay Mayor until 2028 then find a Westminster seat in London (East Ham?) and then be part of the winning Labour Party.

    Will he win in 2024?

    Bailey did much better than many expected or anticipated including me. He won a Ward in Newham (Custom House) by 789 to 742 and the Conservative candidate in the East Ham Central by election polled a respectable 30%.

    The question then becomes - who is the Conservative candidate that can reach the parts even Shaun Bailey couldn't reach? Unless Bailey finds a safe Westminster seat, I'm sure he'll be in the running for another go and there's the thing - he can either have the relatively certainty and obscurity of being a backbench MP or the uncertainty and profile of being London Mayor.

    @TSE seems certain he knows the outcome of the next GE - as Richard Hoiles once said of Frankie Dettori after the Nunthorpe "he's sure I'm not".

    Iff things generally remain the way they are then I'd expect the Conservatives to win the next election.

    But oppositions don't win elections but governments lose them.

    As I mentioned to JohnO I can easily see a situation where the blue wall crumbles and the Conservatives lose 50 seats in England & Wales and five seats in Scotland and kaboom, we have a Labour led government because no one will go into coalition/supply and confidence agreement.

    I mean the DUP will never back Boris Johnson or the modern day Tories for putting a border down the Irish Sea, I think we can rule out the Lib Dems as well, cannot imagine Sinn Fein breaking their abstentionism to give the Tories a majority and I know climate change is an issue but cannot see hell freezing over and us having a Tory/SNP coalition at Westminster.
    I can see the SNP offering to allow through a Queens Speech in return for a referendum.
    Nope.
    Surely there would be no time more proprietous for an independence vote than when there's a Tory government?
    A good government that you didn't vote for versus a crap one that you did?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    Hello. That sounds fabulous. However unless it's in your contract I don't know why you have to always say you're getting drunk. There's no need. Much more efficient to just add a PS when you're not getting drunk.

    Btw, this week I actually went out to the pub and had oysters. Yep.

    But please note that I deconstructed it. I had the oysters (3 Maldens) ad hoc on a tray outside a fishmongers - ie in their proper setting - and then only after that did I go to the pub and do in there what such places are rightfully for, drink.
    Fantastic! An 80-yr old joke. You're on fire.
    I'm not 80. Nothing like.
    Very nearly a good response. But a bit desperate to find a retort. And it showed, sadly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Colin Thubron: ‘I’m increasingly less proud of the west’
    The celebrated travel writer on exploring in his eighties — and why he prefers to journey alone

    Was it a mirage — that heady moment when the world seemed almost too welcoming to western travellers and western ideas? Either way, it seems long gone. The pandemic has shrunk horizons, the withdrawal from Afghanistan has darkened them. Such thoughts cloud my mind as I sit on a deserted Chelsea roof terrace, waiting for Colin Thubron." (via google search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/f2b53d3a-dec0-4e08-a664-2e2aaf075363

    I love that series. The “FT has lunch with”

    It combines restaurant review with relaxed interview in a brilliantly revealing way. I’ve noticed the interviewers often get better insights than yer standard interrogator. A glass of wine here, a digestif there…
    The Jordan Peterson lunch was a work of genius. And I discovered my favorite LA restaurant through Lunch with the FT.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Three years between elections (for good reason this time) really does feel like no time at all despite only 1 year from the usual.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    .

    eek said:

    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
    From a betting perspective, I wonder if there is some value now in reviewing some of the candidates for next Tory leader.

    Given the tax rises, and the suggested ones, It has reinforced my view Rishi won't be next leader.

    As for the rest, it is a bit process by elimination. Raab's seat is at risk, Patel risks floundering over the migrants situation, Gove would be too toxic.

    Javid and Truss are the two obvious ones from the rest of the Cabinet who would benefit from others' demise. However, I'm thinking Oliver Dowden at DCMS might be a good outside bet. He's ambitious, the DCMS brief gives him a platform to attack wokery, which goes down well with the faithful, and it is also a department that is unlikely to make too many unpopular decisions.
    The problem is that everything rests on the date of Boris's departure. And that could be in 2027 or it could be next week if he discovers he needs a few quid in a hurry.
    Dowden? Well if Isam's "charisma quotient" has any merit, Dowden beats Starmer for raw dullness.

    It only gets worse if Jenrick is your man.
    Sharma wants a word. Well he would, if he had any charisma, probably keeping quiet in the corner until he is needed for defending some shambles on breakfast tv.
    A good call!
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004

    AlistairM said:

    Big drop in cases. 5K down in England on last week.

    The difference between England and Scotland/Wales is striking.
    Cases today vs same day last week:(date reported)

    England: 31,726 -> 26,653 (-16.0%)
    Scotland: 6,711 -> 6,815 (+1.5%)
    NI: 1,248 -> 1,687 (+35.2%)
    Wales: 2,391 -> 2,467 (+3.2%)

    England and NI are the outliers, in different directions!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    It's probably not quite in the same league but the Musée Marmottan in Paris is also a lovely little jewel devoted to Monet's works. We used to live round the corner in the early 70s.

    The marmottan is lovely, tho yes this is better I think. And barely visited!

    I love small private collections consisting almost entirely of masterpieces, personally chosen

    Of course the louvre, national gallery, hermitage are fantastic but boy they are huge and exhausting. It takes you a week to really see them, and they are bloated with filler. One of my favorite national galleries is the Mauritshuis in The Hague, it’s tiny by the standards of the Prada but it just has the best of Dutch golden age art. That’s it

    The Getty was so much better when it was that little villa. Now it is a sprawling mess full of dross alongside the great stuff

    I strongly recommend the Rosengart. Mind blowingly good and you can properly see all of it in a lazy morning, then have a nice wine-soaked lunch
    Hitler's Eagle's nest in the German Alps (not that he went there very much, being afraid of heights) can't really compete in the cultural stakes
    Berchtesgaden? He was there quite a lot, I believe, in the pre war era. He loved it. During the war itself he retreated to the Wolf’s Lair in the east. Better bunkers. Nearer Russia.

    I’ve been to Berchtesgaden. It’s deeply sinister even now. Spectacular but creepily subdued.

    What amazed me is the presence of a 5 star hotel right underneath the lair whose only selling point really is: come and enjoy the view Hitler enjoyed! It’s never mentioned, but that is the USP. And many were there for that reason. A lot of young and old people were quietly reading books about the Nazis. Including me.

    It occurred to me that one day even Auschwitz will be sold much more overtly as a tourist destination. They will reconstruct the gas chambers. Have 3D mock ups. Audio visual experiences. Augmented reality Holocaust. You too can imagine what it’s like to come through that railway arch…. Schnell! SCHNELL!

    It sounds ghastly but that will happen. Guaranteed. The horror will fade and the capitalist greed will take over. A few will complain but then give up
    There's all that London Dungeon shit about how torturing people to death gets deeply funny after a couple of centuries. It really doesn't.
    No but there's a bloke outside it with blood smeared over his face, comically, so the point is well made.

    Perhaps not for a few more decades with Auschwitz, that said.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    edited September 2021
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    It's probably not quite in the same league but the Musée Marmottan in Paris is also a lovely little jewel devoted to Monet's works. We used to live round the corner in the early 70s.

    The marmottan is lovely, tho yes this is better I think. And barely visited!

    I love small private collections consisting almost entirely of masterpieces, personally chosen

    Of course the louvre, national gallery, hermitage are fantastic but boy they are huge and exhausting. It takes you a week to really see them, and they are bloated with filler. One of my favorite national galleries is the Mauritshuis in The Hague, it’s tiny by the standards of the Prada but it just has the best of Dutch golden age art. That’s it

    The Getty was so much better when it was that little villa. Now it is a sprawling mess full of dross alongside the great stuff

    I strongly recommend the Rosengart. Mind blowingly good and you can properly see all of it in a lazy morning, then have a nice wine-soaked lunch
    Hitler's Eagle's nest in the German Alps (not that he went there very much, being afraid of heights) can't really compete in the cultural stakes
    Berchtesgaden? He was there quite a lot, I believe, in the pre war era. He loved it. During the war itself he retreated to the Wolf’s Lair in the east. Better bunkers. Nearer Russia.

    I’ve been to Berchtesgaden. It’s deeply sinister even now. Spectacular but creepily subdued.

    What amazed me is the presence of a 5 star hotel right underneath the lair whose only selling point really is: come and enjoy the view Hitler enjoyed! It’s never mentioned, but that is the USP. And many were there for that reason. A lot of young and old people were quietly reading books about the Nazis. Including me.

    It occurred to me that one day even Auschwitz will be sold much more overtly as a tourist destination. They will reconstruct the gas chambers. Have 3D mock ups. Audio visual experiences. Augmented reality Holocaust. You too can imagine what it’s like to come through that railway arch…. Schnell! SCHNELL!

    It sounds ghastly but that will happen. Guaranteed. The horror will fade and the capitalist greed will take over. A few will complain but then give up
    He spent a fair bit of time in the Berghof at the foot of the hill, which is now demolished, but very little up at the Nest for the reason I said. It was mainly used for entertaining.


    I have visited Rastenburg now in Poland, as well, but it's flat and there's not much to see there apart from blown up bits of concrete. Here the scenery is superb
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Brief afternoon all :)

    On topic, unless Sadiq Khan wants to go back to Westminster (as part of a winning Labour Party presumably) he may as well stay Mayor until 2028 then find a Westminster seat in London (East Ham?) and then be part of the winning Labour Party.

    Will he win in 2024?

    Bailey did much better than many expected or anticipated including me. He won a Ward in Newham (Custom House) by 789 to 742 and the Conservative candidate in the East Ham Central by election polled a respectable 30%.

    The question then becomes - who is the Conservative candidate that can reach the parts even Shaun Bailey couldn't reach? Unless Bailey finds a safe Westminster seat, I'm sure he'll be in the running for another go and there's the thing - he can either have the relatively certainty and obscurity of being a backbench MP or the uncertainty and profile of being London Mayor.

    @TSE seems certain he knows the outcome of the next GE - as Richard Hoiles once said of Frankie Dettori after the Nunthorpe "he's sure I'm not".

    Iff things generally remain the way they are then I'd expect the Conservatives to win the next election.

    But oppositions don't win elections but governments lose them.

    As I mentioned to JohnO I can easily see a situation where the blue wall crumbles and the Conservatives lose 50 seats in England & Wales and five seats in Scotland and kaboom, we have a Labour led government because no one will go into coalition/supply and confidence agreement.

    I mean the DUP will never back Boris Johnson or the modern day Tories for putting a border down the Irish Sea, I think we can rule out the Lib Dems as well, cannot imagine Sinn Fein breaking their abstentionism to give the Tories a majority and I know climate change is an issue but cannot see hell freezing over and us having a Tory/SNP coalition at Westminster.
    I can see the SNP offering to allow through a Queens Speech in return for a referendum.
    Nope.
    Surely there would be no time more proprietous for an independence vote than when there's a Tory government?
    There is no way a Tory government would allow the SNP an indyref2 to stay in office and I would also be firmly opposed and prefer to go into opposition than deal with the SNP. I would even prefer a Grand Coalition between the Tories and Starmer Labour than having to touch the Nationalists.

    If Sturgeon held power she would almost certainly back Starmer who would then have to offer her a devomax + indyref2 package in return however
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    It's probably not quite in the same league but the Musée Marmottan in Paris is also a lovely little jewel devoted to Monet's works. We used to live round the corner in the early 70s.

    The marmottan is lovely, tho yes this is better I think. And barely visited!

    I love small private collections consisting almost entirely of masterpieces, personally chosen

    Of course the louvre, national gallery, hermitage are fantastic but boy they are huge and exhausting. It takes you a week to really see them, and they are bloated with filler. One of my favorite national galleries is the Mauritshuis in The Hague, it’s tiny by the standards of the Prada but it just has the best of Dutch golden age art. That’s it

    The Getty was so much better when it was that little villa. Now it is a sprawling mess full of dross alongside the great stuff

    I strongly recommend the Rosengart. Mind blowingly good and you can properly see all of it in a lazy morning, then have a nice wine-soaked lunch
    The Hammer Museum in Los Angeles is similar, just one large-ish room with pretty much one of every great master's work.
    The Frick is like a (small) box of the most expensive and rare chocolates. Exquisite and every piece a masterpiece.

    And you're out and at a cafe in an hour. Result.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    AlistairM said:

    AlistairM said:

    Big drop in cases. 5K down in England on last week.

    The difference between England and Scotland/Wales is striking.
    Cases today vs same day last week:(date reported)

    England: 31,726 -> 26,653 (-16.0%)
    Scotland: 6,711 -> 6,815 (+1.5%)
    NI: 1,248 -> 1,687 (+35.2%)
    Wales: 2,391 -> 2,467 (+3.2%)

    England and NI are the outliers, in different directions!
    Scotland has 9% of the population of England and 21% of the cases according to this data.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Real-world data out of Malaysia regarding vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 related death shows:

    •AstraZeneca: 99.42%
    •Pfizer: 97.25%
    •Sinovac: 90.44%

    The death rate amongst those who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Malaysia is 0.009%.


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1436325238111879173?s=21

    “Quasi ineffective”……

    Or put another way,

    Death rate among vaccinated:

    AZ: 0.58%
    Pfizer: 2.75%
    Sinovac: 9.56%

    That's rather misleading isn't it? You're presumably not trying to say that 9.56% of those vaccinated with Sinovac will die of Covid!
    Of those infected, yes.
    Lol - if that were true the anti-vaxxers would be right since the death rate for unvaccinated is circa 2% IIRC.

    I assume what these figures (•AstraZeneca: 99.42%, •Pfizer: 97.25%, •Sinovac: 90.44%) show is that if vaccinated your chance of death are reduced by the given percentage.

    Thus, the chances of dying from covid if vaccinated with Sinovac are 0.2% versus 2% for unvaccinated.
    You also need to be slightly careful about comparing raw efficacy numbers. In the UK, for example, we gave lots of AZ to old people, and lots of Pfizer to the young. This means that any raw measure will show Pfizer as much more efficacious, when it is just an artifact of who got what vaccine.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Starting to look very good that all the usual experts were the usual amount of wrong in predicting a surge from schools. Obviously no expectation the media will pick up on this until after the government introduce restrictions which will be hard to ever remove.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    edited September 2021
    Prof Alice Roberts💙
    @theAliceRoberts
    ·
    2h
    The UK is carrying out a unique experiment in just ditching precautions and allowing such high numbers of cases -
    @chrischirp
    sharing this comparison at the
    @IndependentSage briefing. 1000 deaths a week has somehow become normalised.

    ==


    Yet we see no widespread public alarm as to where we are with things and certainly no clamour for lockdown or making pubs social distance.

    So maybe 1000 deaths a week is the acceptable level for this new disease at least for a while anyway?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    rcs1000 said:

    Real-world data out of Malaysia regarding vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 related death shows:

    •AstraZeneca: 99.42%
    •Pfizer: 97.25%
    •Sinovac: 90.44%

    The death rate amongst those who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Malaysia is 0.009%.


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1436325238111879173?s=21

    “Quasi ineffective”……

    Or put another way,

    Death rate among vaccinated:

    AZ: 0.58%
    Pfizer: 2.75%
    Sinovac: 9.56%

    That's rather misleading isn't it? You're presumably not trying to say that 9.56% of those vaccinated with Sinovac will die of Covid!
    Of those infected, yes.
    Lol - if that were true the anti-vaxxers would be right since the death rate for unvaccinated is circa 2% IIRC.

    I assume what these figures (•AstraZeneca: 99.42%, •Pfizer: 97.25%, •Sinovac: 90.44%) show is that if vaccinated your chance of death are reduced by the given percentage.

    Thus, the chances of dying from covid if vaccinated with Sinovac are 0.2% versus 2% for unvaccinated.
    You also need to be slightly careful about comparing raw efficacy numbers. In the UK, for example, we gave lots of AZ to old people, and lots of Pfizer to the young. This means that any raw measure will show Pfizer as much more efficacious, when it is just an artifact of who got what vaccine.
    You're not as daft as you look!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    Hello. That sounds fabulous. However unless it's in your contract I don't know why you have to always say you're getting drunk. There's no need. Much more efficient to just add a PS when you're not getting drunk.

    Btw, this week I actually went out to the pub and had oysters. Yep.

    But please note that I deconstructed it. I had the oysters (3 Maldens) ad hoc on a tray outside a fishmongers - ie in their proper setting - and then only after that did I go to the pub and do in there what such places are rightfully for, drink.
    Maldons with an ‘o’ not an ‘e’

    But you’re on your way. Within a few weeks you’ll be comparing the virtues of the helford natives in the Cow with the jersey rocks in the Drop
    Sorry, yes, Maldons. The little town in Essex. Tbh I can't imagine any oyster being better than these that I had. Middle of the afternoon, so peckish rather than hungry, mouth dry in the hot weather, and here comes these 3 beauties, wow, if I was ranking them on the 4 key metrics of temp, taste, texture, size we're talking A stars across the board. They sat in a cool clear liquid (water?) and to this I added merely a squeeze of lemon and a few drops of tabasco. Down the hatch. And in case you're wondering I'm no virgin. I had some in Whitstable quite recently and there was no - repeat no - comparison.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    Prof Alice Roberts💙
    @theAliceRoberts
    ·
    2h
    The UK is carrying out a unique experiment in just ditching precautions and allowing such high numbers of cases -
    @chrischirp
    sharing this comparison at the
    @IndependentSage briefing. 1000 deaths a week has somehow become normalised.

    ==


    Yet we see no widespread public alarm as to where we are with things and certainly no clamour for lockdown or making pubs social distance.

    So maybe 1000 deaths a week is the acceptable level for this new disease at least for a while anyway?

    Especially when those deaths appear to be almost entirely crowding out other causes of death so the usual 10-12k per week total deaths is unchanged.
  • .

    eek said:

    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
    From a betting perspective, I wonder if there is some value now in reviewing some of the candidates for next Tory leader.

    Given the tax rises, and the suggested ones, It has reinforced my view Rishi won't be next leader.

    As for the rest, it is a bit process by elimination. Raab's seat is at risk, Patel risks floundering over the migrants situation, Gove would be too toxic.

    Javid and Truss are the two obvious ones from the rest of the Cabinet who would benefit from others' demise. However, I'm thinking Oliver Dowden at DCMS might be a good outside bet. He's ambitious, the DCMS brief gives him a platform to attack wokery, which goes down well with the faithful, and it is also a department that is unlikely to make too many unpopular decisions.
    The problem is that everything rests on the date of Boris's departure. And that could be in 2027 or it could be next week if he discovers he needs a few quid in a hurry.
    Dowden? Well if Isam's "charisma quotient" has any merit, Dowden beats Starmer for raw dullness.

    It only gets worse if Jenrick is your man.
    Sharma wants a word. Well he would, if he had any charisma, probably keeping quiet in the corner until he is needed for defending some shambles on breakfast tv.
    A good call!
    What is this salary sacrifice that Rishi is planning?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    37622, 167, 1063, as we used to put it.

    Second successive day of positive tests lower than last week. Far too early to count chickens and all that, and in any case I was always in the camp of not getting too hung up on cases, but still good news not to see, yet, the runaway increases some were anticipating in September.

    Deaths and Hospitalisations continue their slow but steady climb.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    maaarsh said:

    Starting to look very good that all the usual experts were the usual amount of wrong in predicting a surge from schools. Obviously no expectation the media will pick up on this until after the government introduce restrictions which will be hard to ever remove.

    I was very much expecting a surge in cases in England. I am pleasantly surprised that there has not been. Today's numbers in England with 16% fewer cases is despite a 5% increase in testing. Are there any other theories other than lots of people must have had it already?

    If that is the case then it is not a good sign for countries like NZ. It means that despite vaccinations when they do open up they will have to deal with quite a surge in healthcare issues.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    jonny83 said:

    Selebian said:

    Real-world data out of Malaysia regarding vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 related death shows:

    •AstraZeneca: 99.42%
    •Pfizer: 97.25%
    •Sinovac: 90.44%

    The death rate amongst those who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Malaysia is 0.009%.


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1436325238111879173?s=21

    “Quasi ineffective”……

    Or put another way,

    Death rate among vaccinated:

    AZ: 0.58%
    Pfizer: 2.75%
    Sinovac: 9.56%

    That's rather misleading isn't it? You're presumably not trying to say that 9.56% of those vaccinated with Sinovac will die of Covid!
    Of those infected, yes.
    Seems high - I thought around 3% was the maximum death rate for unvaxxed?
    It's a mis-read of efficacy, again, I think - taking as absolute rather than relative? The protection is presumably compared to unvaxxed, so if 10000 unvaxxed people died then, had they been vaxed with AZ, only 58 would have died. For sinovac, 956 would have died.

    If you assume 3% death rate unvaxxed (still seems high?) then that's approx:

    10000 out of 330000 unvaxed infected people die
    956 out of 330000 sinovac vaccinated people with the same exposure* die
    58 out of 330000 AZ vaccinated people with the same exposure* die

    *exposure as the vaccinations also stop many infections, but I assume the comparisons are per capita, not per infected

    (I expect I've done a silly maths fail somewhere, correct me if so)
    6 million more people in that Malaysia data had Sinovac x2 compared to AZ (Pfizer also had 7 million doses x2)

    I think what is most impressive is the Pfizer data. Looks more effective than Sinovac with a similar numbers of x2 doses, and only 2% difference between Pfizer and AZ despite 6 million more jabs.

    But they are all very good vaccines, which do the number one job well of preventing hospitalisations and deaths.
    If my intepretation of the findings is correct, then numbers vaccinated has no effect on the estimates (as their risk normalised to number of people) other than to vary the width of the confidence intervals (which are not given). However, I'm just going off the post and how these things are normally done.

    If the posted/tweeted numbers are dependent on numbers vaccinated then they're not very useful. Deaths from Covid for those vaccinated in the UK with sinovac, for example, are 0 (as no one received that vaccine). That doesn't however say anything about the effectiveness of sinovac.
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Selebian said:

    Worst party in the world, in both senses.


    Something has to change!
    This is something!
    erm...
    This is not the something that has to change :hushed:
    Not so sure. With Brexit done and the Tories veering towards Corbynism there is definitely room for a new, low tax, libertarian, low immigration, anti-woke small government patriotic party. With a few charismatic leaders and decent organisation I could see them regularly getting 5-10% of the vote. UKIP managed to frighten the Tories into Brexit with that kind of vote, so it is not meaningless. They would focus Tory minds, fruitfully

    They need rigorous vetting and management from the get-go, however. To make sure they keep out the Tommy robinsons and co
    ReformUK are already on 5% on that platform according to Yougov today.

    It is the ideal party for the anti lockdown, anti mask, anti tax, low immigration, anti woke, still pro Brexit types
    Lots of anti there and only one pro. What is it about Brexit that attracts people who hate almost everything else?
    Is it the Daily Mail?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I noted yesterday testing was up more than cases. Today the cases are actually reported WoW down...
    As schools are now back this is excellent news. Still think a booster and kids vax could reduce it all further.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    Prof Alice Roberts💙
    @theAliceRoberts
    ·
    2h
    The UK is carrying out a unique experiment in just ditching precautions and allowing such high numbers of cases -
    @chrischirp
    sharing this comparison at the
    @IndependentSage briefing. 1000 deaths a week has somehow become normalised.

    ==


    Yet we see no widespread public alarm as to where we are with things and certainly no clamour for lockdown or making pubs social distance.

    So maybe 1000 deaths a week is the acceptable level for this new disease at least for a while anyway?

    I used to like Alice Roberts in her TV presenter persona. It makes me sad that she's thrown in her lot with the isage mob.
  • kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    Hello. That sounds fabulous. However unless it's in your contract I don't know why you have to always say you're getting drunk. There's no need. Much more efficient to just add a PS when you're not getting drunk.

    Btw, this week I actually went out to the pub and had oysters. Yep.

    But please note that I deconstructed it. I had the oysters (3 Maldens) ad hoc on a tray outside a fishmongers - ie in their proper setting - and then only after that did I go to the pub and do in there what such places are rightfully for, drink.
    Maldons with an ‘o’ not an ‘e’

    But you’re on your way. Within a few weeks you’ll be comparing the virtues of the helford natives in the Cow with the jersey rocks in the Drop
    Sorry, yes, Maldons. The little town in Essex. Tbh I can't imagine any oyster being better than these that I had. Middle of the afternoon, so peckish rather than hungry, mouth dry in the hot weather, and here comes these 3 beauties, wow, if I was ranking them on the 4 key metrics of temp, taste, texture, size we're talking A stars across the board. They sat in a cool clear liquid (water?) and to this I added merely a squeeze of lemon and a few drops of tabasco. Down the hatch. And in case you're wondering I'm no virgin. I had some in Whitstable quite recently and there was no - repeat no - comparison.
    There's an R in the month. Essex Natives have only been available since Wednesday last week. If you were Whitstable before then you were eating Rocks. And it goes without saying that Kentish oysters (or oysters of Kent) are just not as good as Essex ones.
  • Where will iSAGE be dragging their goal posts to next?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Pulpstar said:

    I noted yesterday testing was up more than cases. Today the cases are actually reported WoW down...
    As schools are now back this is excellent news. Still think a booster and kids vax could reduce it all further.

    Since the ONS has been reporting that the number of cases is steady....
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic I think David Lammy would make an excellent London mayor.

    I think so too.

    I also hope you are well, TOPPING
    Very well thanks for asking. I hope you are too.
    I'm buzzing! About to go out and spend my winnings!
  • Tax myth #1: the UK under-taxes wealth/property compared to other countries. Not according to the European Commission.

    https://twitter.com/danneidle/status/1436320287755284505?s=21
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Lilico thinks the Tory poll drop is down to the killing of the llama.

    I'm not sure whether he is joking.

    It's embarrassing, the amount of fuss over shooting one alpaca.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2021/09/06/italian_stuntman_aeroplane_tunnels/

    While most of Europe was still in bed at the weekend, Italian stunt pilot Dario Costa got up early, climbed into his aeroplane and, apropos of nothing, flew it through two Turkish motorway tunnels, becoming the first person on Earth to do so.

    The flight, which took place through the Çatalca Tunnels on the Northern Marmara Highway east of Istanbul, broke the world record for the longest tunnel ever flown through in an aeroplane, an incongruous title which up until this point has not been hotly contested.

    Cool.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Pulpstar said:

    I noted yesterday testing was up more than cases. Today the cases are actually reported WoW down...
    As schools are now back this is excellent news. Still think a booster and kids vax could reduce it all further.

    England alone 5k +change down WoW. And that's after the extremely social August BH.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Just to note when Scotland went back to school, their cases more than doubled in a week - so whilst it's too early to say there's no impact in England, we can absolutely state it is going to be nowhere near what happened in Scotland.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    Hello. That sounds fabulous. However unless it's in your contract I don't know why you have to always say you're getting drunk. There's no need. Much more efficient to just add a PS when you're not getting drunk.

    Btw, this week I actually went out to the pub and had oysters. Yep.

    But please note that I deconstructed it. I had the oysters (3 Maldens) ad hoc on a tray outside a fishmongers - ie in their proper setting - and then only after that did I go to the pub and do in there what such places are rightfully for, drink.
    Fantastic! An 80-yr old joke. You're on fire.
    I'm not 80. Nothing like.
    Very nearly a good response. But a bit desperate to find a retort. And it showed, sadly.
    I remain happy with it. But you keep on giving your take on things. I quite often notice.
  • Now I've managed to fix my prediction record, am I eligible to write a piece on why I think 2024 might be 2010 in reverse @TSE
  • AlistairM said:

    AlistairM said:

    Big drop in cases. 5K down in England on last week.

    The difference between England and Scotland/Wales is striking.
    Cases today vs same day last week:(date reported)

    England: 31,726 -> 26,653 (-16.0%)
    Scotland: 6,711 -> 6,815 (+1.5%)
    NI: 1,248 -> 1,687 (+35.2%)
    Wales: 2,391 -> 2,467 (+3.2%)

    England and NI are the outliers, in different directions!
    Maybe the virus is running out of people to infect….
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Prof Alice Roberts💙
    @theAliceRoberts
    ·
    2h
    The UK is carrying out a unique experiment in just ditching precautions and allowing such high numbers of cases -
    @chrischirp
    sharing this comparison at the
    @IndependentSage briefing. 1000 deaths a week has somehow become normalised.

    ==


    Yet we see no widespread public alarm as to where we are with things and certainly no clamour for lockdown or making pubs social distance.

    So maybe 1000 deaths a week is the acceptable level for this new disease at least for a while anyway?

    It reflects well on our capacity to handle risk.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Tax myth #1: the UK under-taxes wealth/property compared to other countries. Not according to the European Commission.

    https://twitter.com/danneidle/status/1436320287755284505?s=21

    They are lumping together two quite distinct forms of taxation. Stamp (and other) duties, compared to a recurring tax on the property.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588

    .

    eek said:

    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
    From a betting perspective, I wonder if there is some value now in reviewing some of the candidates for next Tory leader.

    Given the tax rises, and the suggested ones, It has reinforced my view Rishi won't be next leader.

    As for the rest, it is a bit process by elimination. Raab's seat is at risk, Patel risks floundering over the migrants situation, Gove would be too toxic.

    Javid and Truss are the two obvious ones from the rest of the Cabinet who would benefit from others' demise. However, I'm thinking Oliver Dowden at DCMS might be a good outside bet. He's ambitious, the DCMS brief gives him a platform to attack wokery, which goes down well with the faithful, and it is also a department that is unlikely to make too many unpopular decisions.
    The problem is that everything rests on the date of Boris's departure. And that could be in 2027 or it could be next week if he discovers he needs a few quid in a hurry.
    Dowden? Well if Isam's "charisma quotient" has any merit, Dowden beats Starmer for raw dullness.

    It only gets worse if Jenrick is your man.
    Sharma wants a word. Well he would, if he had any charisma, probably keeping quiet in the corner until he is needed for defending some shambles on breakfast tv.
    A good call!
    What is this salary sacrifice that Rishi is planning?
    From what I understood from earlier postings, TSE is going to sacrifice his salary for the good of the nation and it will easily pay off all social care and NHS costs. Have I got that right?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    Just been to one of the greatest small art museums in the world. The Rosengart Collection. Lucerne. Acquired by Swiss Jewish art dealers Siegfried and daughter angela Rosengart from the 1920s.

    Now housed in a 1920s bank it has an outstanding collection of Picassos (he painted angela 5 times - personal friends), a phenomenal collection of Klees, plus masterpieces by Cezanne, Bonnard, Dufy, Miro, Monet, Modigliani, Calder, Matisse, Seurat, Signac, You name it. And some superb Chagall

    Ten rooms of total genius. It would make a good national gallery of modern European art for an average midsized European country. Like, say, Portugal. Or Finland. I’ve no doubt it’s superior to the equivalent in lubljana or Dublin. Or Australia? Or anywhere in Africa?

    I am now getting happily drunk by the fake wooden medieval bridge

    It's probably not quite in the same league but the Musée Marmottan in Paris is also a lovely little jewel devoted to Monet's works. We used to live round the corner in the early 70s.

    The marmottan is lovely, tho yes this is better I think. And barely visited!

    I love small private collections consisting almost entirely of masterpieces, personally chosen

    Of course the louvre, national gallery, hermitage are fantastic but boy they are huge and exhausting. It takes you a week to really see them, and they are bloated with filler. One of my favorite national galleries is the Mauritshuis in The Hague, it’s tiny by the standards of the Prada but it just has the best of Dutch golden age art. That’s it

    The Getty was so much better when it was that little villa. Now it is a sprawling mess full of dross alongside the great stuff

    I strongly recommend the Rosengart. Mind blowingly good and you can properly see all of it in a lazy morning, then have a nice wine-soaked lunch
    Hitler's Eagle's nest in the German Alps (not that he went there very much, being afraid of heights) can't really compete in the cultural stakes
    Berchtesgaden? He was there quite a lot, I believe, in the pre war era. He loved it. During the war itself he retreated to the Wolf’s Lair in the east. Better bunkers. Nearer Russia.

    I’ve been to Berchtesgaden. It’s deeply sinister even now. Spectacular but creepily subdued.

    What amazed me is the presence of a 5 star hotel right underneath the lair whose only selling point really is: come and enjoy the view Hitler enjoyed! It’s never mentioned, but that is the USP. And many were there for that reason. A lot of young and old people were quietly reading books about the Nazis. Including me.

    It occurred to me that one day even Auschwitz will be sold much more overtly as a tourist destination. They will reconstruct the gas chambers. Have 3D mock ups. Audio visual experiences. Augmented reality Holocaust. You too can imagine what it’s like to come through that railway arch…. Schnell! SCHNELL!

    It sounds ghastly but that will happen. Guaranteed. The horror will fade and the capitalist greed will take over. A few will complain but then give up
    There's all that London Dungeon shit about how torturing people to death gets deeply funny after a couple of centuries. It really doesn't.
    But, a lot of people revel in it. There are whole websites devoted to boiling, hanging drawing and quartering, burning young women at the stake etc.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic I think David Lammy would make an excellent London mayor.

    I think so too.

    I also hope you are well, TOPPING
    Very well thanks for asking. I hope you are too.
    I'm buzzing! About to go out and spend my winnings!
    Are we going to have to have another intervention concerning avocado consumption?

    Just joking. Enjoy it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Talking about Iran, @Richard_Nabavi's promoting the Persian chelo method of cooking rice was appreciated in our house where, at a loss what to do when it was my turn to cook, I drew inspiration from this site. Also much appreciated was the mention here by I forget whom that the US Open can be followed on Amazon Prime.
    Follow Political Betting to improve the quality of life!

    The Ottelengi baked rice recipe is superb.
    The? There are several, which one do you think is superb?
    This one: https://www.finecooking.com/recipe/baked-rice-with-confit-tomatoes-and-garlic
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    .

    eek said:

    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
    From a betting perspective, I wonder if there is some value now in reviewing some of the candidates for next Tory leader.

    Given the tax rises, and the suggested ones, It has reinforced my view Rishi won't be next leader.

    As for the rest, it is a bit process by elimination. Raab's seat is at risk, Patel risks floundering over the migrants situation, Gove would be too toxic.

    Javid and Truss are the two obvious ones from the rest of the Cabinet who would benefit from others' demise. However, I'm thinking Oliver Dowden at DCMS might be a good outside bet. He's ambitious, the DCMS brief gives him a platform to attack wokery, which goes down well with the faithful, and it is also a department that is unlikely to make too many unpopular decisions.
    The problem is that everything rests on the date of Boris's departure. And that could be in 2027 or it could be next week if he discovers he needs a few quid in a hurry.
    Dowden? Well if Isam's "charisma quotient" has any merit, Dowden beats Starmer for raw dullness.

    It only gets worse if Jenrick is your man.
    Sharma wants a word. Well he would, if he had any charisma, probably keeping quiet in the corner until he is needed for defending some shambles on breakfast tv.
    A good call!
    What is this salary sacrifice that Rishi is planning?
    All sorts of minor tax avoidance schemes. Childcare vouchers being most common

    Beware the impact on your pension if it is based on Salary though
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Cookie said:

    Prof Alice Roberts💙
    @theAliceRoberts
    ·
    2h
    The UK is carrying out a unique experiment in just ditching precautions and allowing such high numbers of cases -
    @chrischirp
    sharing this comparison at the
    @IndependentSage briefing. 1000 deaths a week has somehow become normalised.

    ==


    Yet we see no widespread public alarm as to where we are with things and certainly no clamour for lockdown or making pubs social distance.

    So maybe 1000 deaths a week is the acceptable level for this new disease at least for a while anyway?

    I used to like Alice Roberts in her TV presenter persona. It makes me sad that she's thrown in her lot with the isage mob.
    Me too - though she once said she wasn't keen on Carl Sagan, sacrilege in my book, so the signs were there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2021
    Now Houseparty is dead, I've got permission to share something insane that an insider told me last March. Remember that viral nonsense about the app 'hacking people's phones'. A classic piece of bs viral misinformation. Well it led to more than 1 MILLION people deleting the app.

    https://twitter.com/joetidy/status/1436324609666781187
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    edited September 2021

    Where will iSAGE be dragging their goal posts to next?

    Fair point, but there's a fair bit of goalpost moving by many posters on here, isn't there? Namely:

    When cases are going up: cases don't matter at all, let's stop counting them.
    When cases are going down: that's great news, let's celebrate.

    Maybe it's just me, but I'm a bit concerned by rising hospitalisations, ICU/ventilator cases, and deaths. Still a long way to go, I think.
  • RobD said:

    Tax myth #1: the UK under-taxes wealth/property compared to other countries. Not according to the European Commission.

    https://twitter.com/danneidle/status/1436320287755284505?s=21

    They are lumping together two quite distinct forms of taxation. Stamp (and other) duties, compared to a recurring tax on the property.
    It’s still a tax and a source of income for HMT.
  • Where will iSAGE be dragging their goal posts to next?

    Fair point, but there's a fair bit of goalpost moving by many posters on here, isn't there? Namely:

    When cases are going up: cases don't matter at all, let's stop counting them.
    When cases are going down: that's great news, let's celebrate.

    Maybe it's just me, but I'm a bit concerned by rising hospitalisations, ICU/ventilator cases, and deaths. Still a long way to go, I think.
    Don't you come bringing reason and sense in here, Al!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Tax myth #1: the UK under-taxes wealth/property compared to other countries. Not according to the European Commission.

    https://twitter.com/danneidle/status/1436320287755284505?s=21

    They are lumping together two quite distinct forms of taxation. Stamp (and other) duties, compared to a recurring tax on the property.
    It’s still a tax and a source of income for HMT.
    Sure, but the sources are quite different, which is the fundamental issue.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    For those still bothering to count (I take only a passing interest these days - I’m kinda over covidism) very good numbers from Engerland despite the fiesta of schools testing.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    edited September 2021

    Where will iSAGE be dragging their goal posts to next?

    Fair point, but there's a fair bit of goalpost moving by many posters on here, isn't there? Namely:

    When cases are going up: cases don't matter at all, let's stop counting them.
    When cases are going down: that's great news, let's celebrate.

    Maybe it's just me, but I'm a bit concerned by rising hospitalisations, ICU/ventilator cases, and deaths. Still a long way to go, I think.
    There is a degree of logic to that though:
    - Cases going up used to mean similar proportional increases in hospitalisations and deaths, after a lag. Post-vaccines, the relationship is much smaller, so cases going up is less important than it was (while still not competely unimportant)
    - Cases going down still means that, after a lag, hospitalisations and deaths will go down or they at least certainly can't go up (you can't get hospitalised or die from Covid if you haven't got it)

    (this does assume that a fairly consistent proportion of real cases are detected, so that the direciton of movement of cases stats reflect real cases, at least in the downwards direction)
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004

    Where will iSAGE be dragging their goal posts to next?

    Fair point, but there's a fair bit of goalpost moving by many posters on here, isn't there? Namely:

    When cases are going up: cases don't matter at all, let's stop counting them.
    When cases are going down: that's great news, let's celebrate.

    Maybe it's just me, but I'm a bit concerned by rising hospitalisations, ICU/ventilator cases, and deaths. Still a long way to go, I think.
    I don't think cases are as important as they used to be. Having said that, I think it is still beneficial to see them come down. These two statements are not incompatible.

    In my view, we should just action to take on Covid now based on hospitalisations and deaths. I still want to see cases come down as this will reduce these two other metrics which can only be a good thing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2021

    Where will iSAGE be dragging their goal posts to next?

    Fair point, but there's a fair bit of goalpost moving by many posters on here, isn't there? Namely:

    When cases are going up: cases don't matter at all, let's stop counting them.
    When cases are going down: that's great news, let's celebrate.

    Maybe it's just me, but I'm a bit concerned by rising hospitalisations, ICU/ventilator cases, and deaths. Still a long way to go, I think.
    Worth pointing out that hospitalisations aren't going up in England. ICU is also broadly flat. Deaths are up a bit, but still low level i.e no where near the claims of a many many hundred, even 1000+, and it is a massive lagging indicator.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    .

    eek said:

    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Talk of Rishi going for salary sacrifice next. What a further kick in the teeth that would be - if the Tories want to head sub 30 that'll be the way to do it.

    Rishi as CofE looks increasingly like "too much too soon".

    He's clearly a substantial talent, and the Conservative party needs those. But some time in a spending department (ideally W+P) on the way up would have filled out his experience in a way that he clearly needs. Sound money is a good thing, but this is not the time.

    And having a multi-squillionaire as Chancellor masterminding massive austerity just isn't a good look.
    From a betting perspective, I wonder if there is some value now in reviewing some of the candidates for next Tory leader.

    Given the tax rises, and the suggested ones, It has reinforced my view Rishi won't be next leader.

    As for the rest, it is a bit process by elimination. Raab's seat is at risk, Patel risks floundering over the migrants situation, Gove would be too toxic.

    Javid and Truss are the two obvious ones from the rest of the Cabinet who would benefit from others' demise. However, I'm thinking Oliver Dowden at DCMS might be a good outside bet. He's ambitious, the DCMS brief gives him a platform to attack wokery, which goes down well with the faithful, and it is also a department that is unlikely to make too many unpopular decisions.
    The problem is that everything rests on the date of Boris's departure. And that could be in 2027 or it could be next week if he discovers he needs a few quid in a hurry.
    Dowden? Well if Isam's "charisma quotient" has any merit, Dowden beats Starmer for raw dullness.

    It only gets worse if Jenrick is your man.
    Sharma wants a word. Well he would, if he had any charisma, probably keeping quiet in the corner until he is needed for defending some shambles on breakfast tv.
    A good call!
    What is this salary sacrifice that Rishi is planning?
    All sorts of minor tax avoidance schemes. Childcare vouchers being most common

    Beware the impact on your pension if it is based on Salary though
    Most employers with such schemes work it so that your pensionable salary is unaffected.
This discussion has been closed.